Greek Election Night Special
September 16th, 2007
-
Karamanlis and New Democracy scrape a second term
1.35 am - final update
The polls shut over 8 hours ago in Greece, and the counting is now almost complete - the official website, with results in English, is here. Note that the results map shows the current state of play in each seat as the votes are counted, not the final result.
The key number to keep your eyes on is the seat total for New Democracy. With 94% of votes in, they have 153 seats projected in the 300 seat Vouli - if this got down to 150 there would be a hung parliament with the possibility of a second election - Prime Minister and ND leader Karamanlis has said he won’t enter a coalition with the right-wing populist Laos party. When the first seat projections appeared, ND were at 160, so are now down 7 seats. Their current 153 includes the “winner’s bonus” of 40 seats. However, it looks as though ND will just keep their heads above water.
The vast Athens B seat (V’ Athinon) with over 2,500 polling stations will be one of the last to finish counting - there are still 400 polling stations to go in this seat which covers outer Athens. PASOK have had a disappointing result, have conceded defeat, and there is speculation that leader George Papandreou could be under pressure.
Headline numbers:
Counted 94% (9.4 million votes)
Projected Seats: ND 153, Pasok 103, KKE 21, Syriza 13, Laos 10
Vote share: ND 42.2, Pasok 38.2, KKE 8.0, Syriza 4.9, Laos 3.7
Turnout 73.9%
Finally, thanks to everyone for their comments on the previous thread which were very much appreciated. It’s now “and it’s goodnight from him” and I’ll hand you back to Mike as we look ahead to what promises to be an interesting UK conference season for all three parties.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
Mike Smithson returns in a few hours
Paul Maggs runs The Election Game - click on the logo to email for more information.
MessageSpace Advertising
Test
Previous thread 202 colin F Off!
Another party has 1 vote only: Perif. Astiki Anaptyxi (P.A.A)
or as we say in England ‘Colin’s Friends Party’
If its a hung parliament I for one will be rather miffed.
I fancied the left would be in with a better chance of forming up a government than appeared by PASOK’s price because the minor leftist parties seemed to be bigger than any rightist or centerist bloc that New Democracy could have called on.
As it was, It all got too complicated for my simple mind.
As it is, I’m not sure I could have made something off it. Was the original market based on ‘winner’ i.e. largest party or next government or next PM?
Yokel,
Market was based on next PM - Karamanlis now unbackable on Betfair (a healthy 406K matched).
4. [from last thread] The latest foot and mouth diagnosis is apparently in Surrey - again.
darling on telly saying that labour borrowing less than that under conservatives 15 yearsago. that sounds ludicrous statement to me….. can anyone orroborate his statement?
OT. I don’t wish to be a Jonah having already flagged up the first signs of the credit crunch on Aug 9, but after reading various reports today am I alone in thinking something big may be brewing re Iran in the coming months?
Bush setting America up for war with Iran
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/16/wiran116.xml
Was Israeli raid a dry run for attack on Iran?
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2170188,00.html
France warning of war with Iran
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6997935.stm
5. It looks likely that ND will make it but it wouldnt take much would it to shut that notional majority down.
Having said that I have no particular insight so I had better take heed of the market. I’m trying to get some audio or video in English from somewhere to follow it minute by minute with pundit commentary but its pretty bare.
On an OT note: This mood music coming out of France is becoming ratrher regular. Sarkozy has been saying it as well. Are the French helping the US prepare ground for something?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6997935.stm
8. Caveman..great minds think alike…..
That Japanese bet isnt looking too bad is it? Pity I only went in to modest stakes.
9 - ND quite safe now. This can be called with half the votes.
10. Yokel, they only let me get £60 on so no chance of breaking the bank, but if PP reopen the market tomorrow at Evens (which I doubt), I’m very tempted to top up again on the back of this update.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d00d69e8-646f-11dc-90ea-0000779fd2ac.html
Separately Intrade price for an attack on Iran before Mar 08 now just under 4/1, which I’m not happy to say may start looking like value soon if the reports are anything to go by.
Both major parties have been squeezed somewhat - the Communists (KKE) and right-wing parties look to have made small gains, probably protest votes rather than marking any long-term trend.
Looks like ND will be home and dry, but not by many.
8. In short though, the answer is yes. I think there is a determination and not just on the US’s part to sort this one out. I think the French are on board at this time and more importantly are perhaps telling their own companies not only not to get involved given pending sanctions but also dont get involved because its not only sanctions that may be coming.
From what I can tell a number of Gulf States already expect it and frankly dont give two hoots if Iran gets bombed back to the stone age because they fear Iranmian imperialism. The whole bomb Israel with a nuke idea is the least likely use of a nuclear weapon by Iran. Waving it at their neighbours in the Gulf and also to the North are rather more advantageous to the Persians.
Less well publicised is the apparent presence of no less than 3 US carriers in the greater Gulf area. That kind of firepower would be needed to help control the area and be a component of a flexible attack option on Iran. In short it takes 2 carriers to really have 24 hour operations so 3 is plenty. Its a big stick to threaten with and a big stick to use.
Rumour had it that some of the Gulf states were expcting these carriers to have turned up earlier and were asking where they were. Somewhere in the Pacific Oceans doing a rather large trainig exercise. The usual invites to observers from other nations were not extended.
The Israeli attack is just odd. Not so much that they did it, or teh cargo but that they flew through Syrian airspace in such a loop without a scratch despite the fact the Syrians have got their hands on some very new Russian AA systems…some of which were possibly Iranian funded buys.
12. Never even asked for 60 so didnt know there was such a limit!
7.
IMHO Gord’s honeymoon is now over.
Just picked it up on SKY. They are reading tomorrow’s advance copies and an article in the Telegraph quotes Big Al stating that the UK economy is in worse shape than the US.
Been saying this for sometime now. When you consider the much higher debt levels and the fact that the vast majority of our mortgages are subprime or dodgy self-cert,interest only, 125%, 5 X income etc. According to the Worldbank we owe 10 trillion $ compared with the US at 11.8 trillion $. On a per capita basis the US is far behind us debt-wise. Our monthly deficit is now over 4 billion pounds and growing whereas the US deficits continue to shrink. Our private debt ratio is 1.67 compared with the US at around 1.42. And worse, out House Price Increase has been double that of the US with house prices also double and on wages that are less after taxes. Add all of that together and you begin to see that Big Al is not far off the mark.
Good old Gordon, he has dropped us right in it and the world is waking up to that fact. He will soon become known as Britain’s worst chancellor ever and a lucky man to be rewarded for his efforts with No. 10.
Its taken a long time but the world has just woken up to the fact that the miracle economy was just a debt ridden bubble. “No more boom and bust”………………
At long last the conservatives have gone on the offensive regarding the economy.
7
If you listen again to the photo negative man’s interview,he makes the debt comparison with black wednesday & not over a sustained period of time.
The UK government’s borrowing is now higher than Italy,maybe that puts it into perspective.
Hold on isnt Greenspan on some advisory committee for Gordon?
99 on last thread. The vast majority of people in Brussels (80% plus) speak French as their mother tongue. French bureaucracy was not imposed upon the city, but was the natural language of the aspiring classes, having been the language of the aristocratic elite in both Wallonia and Flanders for centuries. The prestige of the French language was also heightened due to the success of Wallonia’s advanced textiles trade, with northern Flanders being poorer. Many of the villages south of Brussels but still in the Flemish zone are also French speaking. The only reason they are in Flanders is due to an arbitrarily drawn line by politicians.
8.14. I think all major nations realise that Iran is a different case from Iraq, in so far as that Iran actually could develop WMDs. War would mean the place would be worse than the present situation in Iraq times ten, but that’s still probably better than religious fundamentalist nuts inflicting nuclear armageddon on the Middle East. We live in dark times.
7. Fraser Nelson has already highlighted that Darling got his figures wrong twice today. Won’t be the first time that the odd fib has been told, remember spending announcements which turned out to be old ones recycled.
Risky tactic from Darling, because it might backfire, could cause a lot more scrutiny of the actual amount of debt this government has raked up. As it is Brown lost us more money selling off gold cheap than we lost on Black Wednesday.
16 - if it meant a revival in Tory fortunes would follow, which Tory posters on here would relish an economic downturn?
7 I do recall that there was a torrid 2 year period around 1992-3 when the Tories allowed the PSBR to rise to a level ahead of current expectations. The difference now however is that the Treasury’s very borrowing levels are committed for years and years ahead and, if past performance is anything to go by, are actually likely to increase.
Enjoy that £1:$2 exchange rate whilst you can, it aint going to last.
21 Certainly not I - sorry but my family’s own financial well-being comes ahead of political doctrine.
21. Oppositions grab whatever they can. Its politics.
stjohn - you appeared to have skulked off for the evening after Villa’s very poor result today. I would appreciate your thoughts on my footy tip in post 46 yesterday (re Oz GE thread).
Anatole Kaletsky in tomorrows Times - I hope I’m wrong but I’ve a very bad feeling
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article2469501.ece
25 - Well played Villa (but not well played enough
)
Article updated - ND now down to 155 seats - down 5 more and it’s a hung parliament.
Double Carpet
21.SBS, when political decisions or interventions are made then we have the right to question the government on this. Just remind me again of how many times Blair and Brown have made political capital out of the previous governments economic record?
I take no pleasure from the present situation, but I also have no doubt that Brown’s stewardship of the Treasury should have come under more intense scrutiny a lot sooner. If the right questions had been asked and some of Brown’s more sleight of hand manipulations been highlighted by the opposition parties and the media, we might not be quite so exposed to the present crisis.
26 The BoE simply has to support Northern Rock irrespective of the cost - to allow a major bank to fail would inevitably focus attention on the next weakest candidate(s).
Also, I fail to see how NR can simply be acquired for 1p as he suggests, it has significant value, notwithstanding its current problems. It is up to the shareholders to decide at what price they value their company and no one else.
Peter, I’m lurking shamefully. Agreed a poor game by Villa.
I bought total corners on spreadfair at 10.7 to 20 pounds. There were 15 corners so I netted an 86 pound profit despite my side losing. Result!
I think you’re referring to selling Derby County points? They are clearly doing badly but whether there is any value left in their demise I just don’t know. I’m always wary of placing a bet where the tipster has a partisan interest. So I’ll pass on this advice thanks. I’m looking to reenter the GE seats spread market next when the spread looks a bit more tempting.
21. If an economic downturn happened, I would certainly blame who I think was responsible. However, I would never wish one to happen.
26. I’m not sure he’s got all his numbers right….
Secondly the government is trying hard to ease a buyer in. The problem is that the tersm that buyer may set may be too much in terms of what they need from the government and BoE.
There alreadty has been a bit of ground shift over the loan facility, which in principle should halt as soon as the company is under new ownership. According to the Treasury and BoE that loan facility will now continue for any new owners up to the timeline currently set for it. After that however nothing is guaranteed.
He is right though that there are terms, on this loan facility which, hopefully will be released shortly. I speculated on eher, I think yesterday about how long they can keep thso loan facility up. It can’t be indefinite because its life support for an insolvent company.
What I’m assuming is that financial support in place now is based on a political imperative and also a market imperative to try to prevent sentiment getting worse but also to provide space for a buyer to come in.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6997962.stm
Finally, Ming starts talking some sense. Regrettably he doesn’t mention the Conservatives want to bring in a replacement rights act, but he’s at least talking about something sensible and important.
30. Well true it wont go for a pound but shareholders could be faced withsomeone offering to buy, but at an sizeable discount or the whole shebang shutting and being last in line for getting any value from the remnants.
In the event of closure:
Creditors, including the BoE and desposit customers will have to satisfied. What i think people may miss is teh much talked about insurance in terms of how much deposit customers get back may never come into effect because the bansk assets will be used to pay that.
The remaining loan book themselves will be sold on but at a discount.
Any value remaining may well go to the shareholders but its goign to be nowehere near there shareholding price.
I won’t even mention goodwill and intanagibles such branding as its worth about zero.
An artcile in the FT suggested that shares could be going as low as £1.80 as the kind of buy price offered. Thats a big drop from ist current £4 odd.
The recriominations however could get nasty. For a start this bank was at about £6 odd a share when this crisis kicked off….it was £12 a year ago so clearly there was an awareness of problems. The directors will likely get panned because some of them probably sold off shares.
There is even a story doing the rounds that Northern Rock made approaches about possible loan facilities no less than 6 weeks ago.
There may be complaints that a takeover was blocked.
And so on.
31 stjohn, yes, but it’s a reverse partisan position. I will return to this in the coming months, or maybe around 10pm tomorrow evening! In the guessing game, total corners comes second only to shirt numbers and here was I thinking you were a sophisticated punter!
Regarding GE seat spreads, what are you looking for to re-enter this market? I tried to lay some bets with Spreadfair on London & UK house price indices through to Dec 2008 on Friday and Saturday, but the market has dipped by approx 2% over the weekend, still looks cheap however IMO.
It would be good to hear Mike’s views on this market.
ND now at 154.
37…Tick…tick…
I’d guess though theyd need a bit lower than the 150 not to have a chance of being returned given that the alternative bloc probably couldnt muster 151 seats.
30
‘The BoE simply has to support Northern Rock irrespective of the cost - to allow a major bank to fail would inevitably focus attention on the next weakest candidate(s).’
But hasn’t that already happened with another 3 candidates apparently having difficulties and in the frame,will the BOE also support them?
39 I’m talking about major banks here, not .
I doubt any are in serious trouble since none have been lending on the same aggressive basis as NR, although it is worrying to see some of the small buiding societies currently offering deposit rates of around 7% p.a. which appear unsustainable and have that faint whiff of panic about them.
39 Repeated text as italicised text was omitted from previous version:
I’m talking about major banks here, not “mortgage boutiques” .I doubt any are in serious trouble since none have been lending on the same aggressive basis as NR, although it is worrying to see some of the small buiding societies currently offering deposit rates of around 7% p.a. which appear unsustainable and have that faint whiff of panic about them.
35 NR could just decide sit tight. In addition to the huge outflows of deposits, which will probably wane in a day or two as savers become convinced that it’s not actually going bust, there are likely to be a substantial number of borrowers who will decide to switch their loan to an alternative lender, fearing, probably quite rightly, that NR will increase their margins. Such inflows may well be sufficient to repay the BoE, enabling NR to offer itself for sale on a controlled basis and largely on its terms.
It should also be remembered that whilst NR is paying a penal rate on its loan from the BoE, it will equally be saving vast amounts of interest from those savers who have panicked out and in doing so, many will have forfeited months’ worth of interest.
40 HSBC is also offering 7% on sterling and 5% on Euros and 6% on the US Dollar on a three month basis. So it is not the tiddlers only.
Nationwide ( the main old fashioned mutual) is offering 6.7% for a year bond which is slightly below LIBOR of last week. So they feel safe is the message here. Safe but taking sensible precautions.
If the BoE reduced interest rates that may not reduce the new mortgage rates which with Nationwide are 7.3 APR variable which gives then a 0.5% spread on savings top rate and 1.5% on their regular internet savings rate.
All you can be really sure of in the market as a whole is that the last nine years of increasingly free and easy credit have caught up with the market and things ain’t going to be what they used to be.
Some lenders will go to the wall if they have been imprudent (already happened with Victoria) and others will end up as profit free zones and make themselves targets for takeovers: NR perhaps but perhaps some of the investment banks too.
But until the banks feel confident enough to lend to one another again then the whole system is going to grind rapidly to a halt. And so far the government has done nothing to deal with this except give out dodgy statistics and blame the credit rating agencies.
There is indeed a Lamontine wiff of paralysis coming out of Downing Street. This is one of the few times I might wish the ECB were in charge as they have acted positively and in a targeted way: injecting liquidity and the bail out in-country of the two German banks who caught a cold in the sub-prime mortgages in the Irish market, itself a hot zone of inflation way above the ECB base rate.
There will still be fall out in the Euro Zone but probably far, far less than here as a result. But it is not a situation of automatic doom if King Brown Darling get their act together.
43 - Largely agree with your comments, but don’t forget the £2 billion already withdrawn from NR has to find a home and this alone will provide a little more liquidity in the market. Far more will, I suspect, be provided by the imminent and substantial decline in the demand for mortgages as prices start to fall back.
Peter. Fair comment about the buying corners bet. It was just a bit of fun. Not my usual rigorous assessment of value. But a winner is a winner! They’ve settled at 14 corners when I made it 15. I’ll have to check and if necessary take them to task.
I’m very concerned by the comments of Yokel and Caveman tonight on the state of the economy. Two of the sites shrewder pundits, both fearing a “Crash Gordon”.
I disagree with Yokel though that it might tempt Gordon to go early. This thing has gone too far now in my opinion and a “cut and run” election would only risk further panic on the money markets and therefore punishment for Brown at the ballot box. He’s in for the long run now and has to hope to weather the storm.
45 Agree, no UK GE this year. Switching off in a couple of mins, but please come back to me if poss on your GE seats thinking.
ND now down to 153 with 91.2% counted.
45.Looking at tomorrows papers I did see one article where they quoted senior sources in the government saying that an Autumn election is now off.
45. stjohn. I should clarify that my own instinct is long because the economy is in for tougher times and Gordon will want to ride it out plus get his own programme in place but there is cold politics here: Try to get re-elected whilst the going is good.
Unlikely for 2007 but I can’t rule it out myself though I havent backed it with the hard earned. There are wise heads telling me there is no way 2007 and I have taken their advice but I’m watching it.
The other reason why I cant totally dismiss it is because if the economy does have trouble of a substantive kind then Gordon can’t necessarily affect it that much so becomes a hostage to fortune. For one, government has a limited number of levers as in any free market economy, and secondly I suspect Gordon’s previous approach to taxation & spending will mean he has next to no room to pull a lot of of those levers without more and deepening problems.
That of course is conjecture and remains to be seen. Gordon. however, would be nuts to rule out a 2007 election completely and I am guessing will be keeping an eye on it even if he is reluctant.
47 Paul - unless they have some very dodgy computer software in Greece 153 should be about it +/- 1 seat. is that an overall majority of 6 seats? A close outcome, which means no skiving for ND MPs!
47. Close but no cigar for my thoughts of a hung parliament…surely thats them back in despite losses though with that kind of majority its not going to be an easy ride.
44 PfP The 2Bn is peanuts though in the estimated 300 bn loan book of international investment banks, the 45bn or more Euro bail out of the two German banks and the now hundred Bn or more of liquidity the Fed and the ECB have injected into the market.
It is the possible weakness in those international bank loan books that is causing the paralysis, if I read things right. A great load of loans need to be rolled over in the next couple of weeks, quarterly profit forecasts (or warnings) in the same time frame from the same suspects, and a couple of million domestic mortgagees having to swallow whopping rises when their fixed term periods come to an end over the next six months.
Some of our UK household banking names have the contagion, perhaps, but not a killer dose, but enough to make them feel rather poorly and queasy. And who can be surprised when the likes of Bear Sterns are hit.
The savers of NR are going to put their money into another bank unless they emigrate emotionally to France and put it under grandma’s mattress. But who do they choose?
The lenders have at last realised that they need to be a little more conservative and use savers’ money as much as possible not money market gimmicks and flash harry manoeuvers.
If Brown goes for an election with all this going on he will look like a cut-and-run merchant and quite a few small savers are going to give him the thumbs down in a big way.
Similarly any more silly political games with not so bright MPs and wannabe-MP millionaires and past prime ministers will go down badly. He should be keeping our money safe not playing about.
PfP, yes I think 152 should be the min score now. 93% counted, but still 450 stations to go in Athens B, and the ND% keeps falling.
Maj of 4 or 6 still ok I think as can’t see the 3 left parties teaming up with Laos to topple ND even if a hung parlt.
52 Witan - I know I’m practically alone here, but I really do fear for the UK housing market over the next 12-18 months which is hopelessly over-priced IMO and could easily drop by 20% or more and thereafter stand still for a further 2 years. I’ve pointed out here previously how the commercial property market is already falling, with the share prices of some of our largest real estate companies already down 30% this year.
That’s why, as referred to above, I have been trying to sell the HBOS price indices with Spreadfair.
Should this sort of decline actually materialise, I feel the impact on the nation’s feel good factor will impact significantly on the opinion polls and therefore on the betting markets.
Final update now made to Greek thread - thanks & goodnight - I’ll post some updates tomorrow after a long lie-in.
Cheers & all the best
Double Carpet
A couple of articles that might be of interest.
“Bank seeks takeover as savers push it to brink”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2469784.ece
And in the Guardian. “Early poll speculation dashed by bank turmoil”
http://business.guardian.co.uk/markets/story/0,,2170868,00.html
55 - The problem with house prices is that we’re almost in a sort of weird Catch 22 situation.
The house prices are too high as they’re at unprecedented levels of multipliers to income (7-8 times, when it should be 3-4 times) and this is unsustainable.
However household numbers are increasing far faster than new houses are getting built so supply and demand means that the prices are going to have to go up and being low is unsustainable.
The market is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t. Ultimately the real crux of the issue is we don’t have enough houses and nowhere near enough new ones are getting built. Either planning laws are loosened and we see major new housebuilding, and/or large portions of the population can atm forget about owning their own home.
There is no right outcome the market can do in this, no sustainable equilibrium. Something has to give and unless something fundamental changes (fewer households or more houses) and does so dramatically, this will not be the last crisis.