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Will the Tories be able to stop the seepage?

September 29th, 2007

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    Two new polls show big Tory deficits

Above are two of the front pages from the Sunday papers at the start of what could be a historic week in British politics. Is Gord going to take the plunge? Can the Tories turn their desperate polling position round?

The main Ipsos-Mori poll for the month is out and in the Observer. This shows the following shares with comparisons on the last Mori survey a week and a half ago – CON 34%(nc): LAB 41%(-1): LD 16%(+2). So an 8% Tory deficit has become a 7% one – not really much significance in that. The Lib Dems, however, will be delighted with their two point rise.

Another poll is from BPIX in the Mail on Sunday and shows a very different picture for the Lib Dems. These are the figures CON 34%: LAB 41%: LD 12%. This is the first survey from the firm since September last year when it was showing a 10% Tory lead. How things have changed.

BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council and does not have to follow its transparency code. Until it gets it act together and operates like a proper pollster then it’s not worth attaching much credence to its numbers. For well over a year its website has simply stated that the site “is under construction”. It is known that it uses the internet and YouGov carries out its fieldwork.

    So there we are. Will Brown go or won’t he? Will the Tories get a poll boost this week or will they still be in the doldrums. Has Cameron set the right tone with his challenge featured in the Sunday Times extract above?

Who knows and my gambling strategy is always to take profits where I can? So I’ve just cashed in part of the profits on my “Gordon weeks” spread bet. Nice to see £790 going into my account and I’ve reduced my exposure if Brown decides to wait. I’ve still got a further biggish bet on that market as well as a buy position on Labour seats.

Mike Smithson






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