Could a Dutch referendum have acted as a shield? News from the Hague within the past hour could have a big impact on UK politics. For as can be seen from the EU Observer report the chances of there being a referendum in the Netherlands on the EU treaty now look very slim indeed. It will be recalled that the Dutch rejected the EU constitution in a vote in 2004 which took the pressure off Tony Blair who had promised…
Can he appeal to Ming’s party and make speeches like yesterday’s? As discussed yesterday the move to Labour in the polls has been as a result of two major developments – more Labour supporters are saying that they would be certain to vote and the party is winning back support from the party that Brown irritatingly refers to as “the Liberals”. The idea of “Gordon Conservatives” is, for the moment, a device to put pressure on the Tories. All the…
Will this create instability amongst the the Tories? Developments in the McCann story and the Indy’s idiosyncratic approach to tabloid journalism have kept Brown’s speech off many of the front pages this morning and I reproduce above those that I can find online that are making the event their main lead. By far and away the most significant is the Sun which is continuing with its high profile campaign to get a referendum on the EU treaty. This is the…
Is there any evidence that Tory voters are switching? Labour party spinners are putting it about that a new type of voter is emerging that they are calling “Gordon Conservatives”. These are people, it is claimed, who voted Tory last time but have now decided to go with Labour. According to Ben Brogan over the weekend Labour research has started to identify this group. Because this is coming from private polls we cannot see the data but from my research…
How long will the teasing go on? Brown’s long-awaited first speech as leader of the Labour party and Prime Minister is well under way and, no doubt, every word and phrase will be scrutinised to see if he is providing hints about the election date. Could Gordon the cautious be prepared to gamble everything on the polls and risk seeing his premiership ending in just 120 days? We shall see. Meanwhile the spread markets on general election commons seats now…
But should Brown be worried by the Sun’s coverage? The latest opinion poll to be published, Ipsos-Mori in the Sun, has good news for Labour and bad news for the Tories and the Lib Dems. We don’t know yet, however, when the survey was actually carried out. If previous months are anything to go by then the fieldwork probably took place before yesterday’s ICM poll. These are the shares with changes on the last Ipsos-Mori poll in August – CON…
Do today’s comments close down the 2007 election suggestions? I have just listened to the online playback of this afternoon’s “The World the Weekend” and I am almost convinced, like Ben Brogan, that Gord’s loyal aide for more than a decade, Ed Balls has effectively ruled out the possibility of an October election. If anybody’s going to know what’s in Brown’s mind Balls is. Listen for yourself and draw you own conclusion. It’s towards the end of the programme. The…
Labour’s lead moves from 8% to 6% The main driver of the week’s heightened speculation that Brown would chance everything on an October election was the Guardian’s ICM poll on Wednesday showing the Labour lead moving up three points to 8%. Today a new poll from the same pollster in the Sunday Mirror has that down to 6% which while not very significant in itself could affect the mood and particularly the sentiment on the betting markets. As I reported…