Will Dave be part of tomorrow’s media narrative?
October 4th, 2007
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How will the post conference polls look?
Yesterday’s publication by Mori of a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s conference speech is a timely reminder of the polling power of the saturation media coverage that such an event provides.
That survey had Labour 13% ahead - nearly double the 7% lead that the same pollster had found a couple of days later.
The instant poll by YouGov after Brown’s speech came up with an 11% margin though that was sustained in the Telegraph three days afterwards.
So what can we expect from this evening’s YouGov poll on Channel 4 news? How much of that 11% margin will the Tories have clawed back and how are we to judge it?
So much is dependent on the next few polls - not just the general election decision but whether Blackpool has provided the base for a Tory recovery. The media narrative is with Cameron at the moment. Good polls will sustain it – bad polls could kill it dead.
Mike Smithson
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Yes Mike, agreed. I can’t wait to see the polls.
I suspect they will show some uplift though it may take a couple of days to actually show up.
Gordon may be caught between a rock and a hard place trying to make his call.
Working on the assumption that a Lab lead of 3% equals a Lab maj of 48, the poll published tonight will have a poll lead double what a poll on Monday may have and that Brown has to win big (triple digit majority) to make calling a November election sound reasonable, that means we need to see a Labour lead tonight and over the next few days of anything ranging between 15% and 20% (which is simply not going to happen). So therefore the next question is: “How does Brown backtrack from a November election without appearing two faced?”
Mike, I seem to have missed this - is there definitely a YouGov poll on C4 tonight?
I’m sure you’re right about the polls, but what about today’s local by-elections? The Tories’ strong showing last week commanded extensive coverage, and surely these will be analysed equally thoroughly. Er, but I don’t know what contests are taking place. Over to Andrea and Mark…
Given the huge swings to Brown post-speech, and the extensive and fairly positive coverage of Cameron’s effort, one could expect the ‘post-speech’ polls to show the Conservatives within a point or two of Labour. With polls taken over the weekend, one would expect the Labour lead to widen again as the speech becomes less fresh in voters minds.
I’m not sure Cameron has the media narrative at all Mike tbh. Diana, and now the latest extraordinary twist in the Madeleine enquiry (Sky News) seem to me to be dominant. The real noise heard from Blackpool was much earlier in the week by Osborne, and I think that’s a bit of a problem for DC. Aside from being able to speak for an hour (blimey there are some people who can do that who one wishes wouldn’t) the content was pretty thin, so the real question here is whether the IHT policy will swing things substantially enough back to the Tories.
My hunch? Polls between 4% and 9% Labour lead over the next 4 days, leaving Brown right on the cusp of whether to go or not. Much will depend on Labour seizing back the news agenda … but everyone is now battling the Diana / Maddy stories.
Let’s not forget folks that for most people politics is a bore compared to real-life (and artificial) soap operas.
4. A Labour loss in darkest Shepshed might attract a surprising degree of attention.
[to Labour Humanist, from last thread]
334. What, the standard of living in the banlieus of Paris? With their 50% unemployment rates? You’d rather live there than America?
Yeah, right. Tell that to the kids who rioted.
I note you choose Denmark as one of your examples. Not Bulgaria, Portugal, or Northern Ireland. Or Greece, or Romania, or Moss Side. Because these other examples wouldn’t work so well, would they?
But even Denmark doesn’t work that well. According to the surveys, Denmark, the richest country in the EU (little Luxemburg aside) would be the ninth poorest state in the 50 states of the USA, if it was a state.
I don’t engage yr arguments cos you don’t have any. You just have a prejudice, and an inability to express it interestingly.
Any ideas of where there are by-elections tonight! I’d guess that areas to watch are the marginals!
Not necessarily tonight’s poll, but I’m sticking with the general post-conference trend being Lab 39-40, Con 35-36. I reckon that will kill of early election talk, even if its 40-35.
40-34 or 41-34 is another matter though.
My prediction for tonight - Cons 36% Lab 37%
4 LOL , the most significant of the few byelections today is the Leics CC Shepshed , a Labour marginal seat in the Loghborough Parliamentary constituency and we can compare the aggregate votes this May in the 2 constituent District Wards
2005 result Lab 2864 Con 2465 LibDem 1356
2007 May….Con 1427 Lab 1139 LibDem 1092 BNP 982
A Labour hold would therefore be a very good result for them on a lower turnout than in 2005 . Will the LibDem vote hold up ? I have no idea how much effort they are putting in this time . What will happen to the BNP vote ?
I think we are reading too much into The Leadership. Conservative is a seriously damaged brand. Even Cameron’s Conservatives made no impact at Ealing Southall. Why change an OK Government for the shower of selfish, part time, chancers that make up the Conservative party, even if lead by St Dave?
7. Shepshed is the big tell today as it was won by Labour on GE day but by a Labour councillor known as Mr Shepshed so the result will be very interesting. Should have gone over to help really but busy preparing for an election.
12. A very active BNP in this area mark. COuld well act as the spoilers.
8 -”I don’t engage yr arguments cos you don’t have any.”
like yours that the health system in the us is more desirable than ours or that you can seriously advance the argument that denmark is a poor country in relative measurement to the vast majority of the us. There really is no sophistication to your views is there?
“You just have a prejudice”
I’ll repost from the end of the last thread…gee, with such amazing insight into how people think and their cognitive frameworks, why don’t you seek an alternative career reading tarot cards on psychic tv, maybe your own end of the pier show, i’m sure it pays more than the minimum wage.
9 The other 2 byelections are a very safe Conservative seat in Windsor and a Scottish byelection in Argyll and Bute for an Independent seat with Con/SNP and LibDem in with a chance .
10. Gotta go out in a minute. So here’s my predictions.
I foresee a weekend average in the polls of Labour 38-40, Tories 33-35. An average gap of 5%. Tricky.
However, I think in this light Gordon will go for it, partly for the reasons Macbeth so ably expressed:
All causes shall give way: I am in blood
Stepp’d in so far, that, should I wade no more,
Returning were as tedious as go o’er.
12. I predict that by election….
… will be micro analysed to death tomorrow
Question: Can anyone please explain how endless pictures of Diana walking up and down coridoors in the Ritz Hotel can have any impact whatsoever on deciding the cause of death?
Or is it just an excuse to:
1) Lengthen the inquest to maximise fees/costs
2) Lengthen the media circus
Given my understanding that the poll results this evening will not allow for liklihood to vote then I think it be surprising if the Labour lead were below say 4%. If the Tories in this first poll get the lead down to 4-5% then they may get some good publicity but above this level probably not. I would suspect those later polls reflecting liklihood to vote to show a much closer position and give Cameron positive publicity.
In earlier threads much of the debate has been what lead (or average) lead will Brown want before going ahead with a GE.
What if the polls which take into account liklihood to vote show a marginal/no lead for Labour and other polls show a significant lead for Labour. Does Brown look at the average? I think he would be reckless if he did!
Picking up from Brit Spin’s comments in the past thread, I think the
approval ratings for Cameron are crucial and may be indicating that the public is polarising on whether to listen to Cameron or not.
Similarity to Blair is a real problem , as many people who became disenchanted with Blair will have had the experience of Disliking Blair but finding him reasonable whenever he talked - leading to more disenchantment and the realisation that it was best not to listen to him.
The tax proposals and show of unity got a good press so I expect that will be worth 3%. If people are still willing to listen to Cameron then he will have added 4% and taken them to level pegging or further.
Anything less than 7% is probably down to people’s views of Cameron having hardend and not bothering to give him another chance (it was a good performance)
18. Amazingly enough, America exerts quite a pull on the world’s poor, though, doesn’t it? Just as much as the “social model” countries of Europe? With their increasingly insupportible “social model”?
Why is that? Why do any of them want to go to America when they could live in lovely Salford, with its vastly superior “social model”?
Even if the figures lie, which they don’t, even if Denmark is as rich as California or Connecticut, that would say a lot in itself.
Where would you rather live? California or…. Denmark?
All that cheese! Gimme.
Actually I suspect you would rather live in Denmark. The most boring country in the universe. Perfect spot for British lefties.
21. I know, these latest Diana/Dodi pics will seize the headlines again.
It’s a national obsession. On the other hand, to be fair these pics haven’t been released before and there is something poignant (or is it macabre?) about seeing these pics taken just before we know she died.
Forget politics as far as the tabloids are concerned … will that affect the Tories? Possibly actually. They are already losing/have lost the agenda.
As long as Labour has a lead of at least 4-5 points, we should still expect an election. After all, Brown will be well-aware that Cameron gets a post-conference bounce, too.
24. Totally unfair. Norway is far more boring as any Dane will tell you.
19 seanT. You mentioned the Scottish play on PB !!!!!!
27. I’ve never been to Norway, but I have suffered the boringness of Denmark.
I wrote about my suffering here:
http://tinyurl.com/2dc8l9
If Norway is worse than Denmark then I weep for the Norsemen of Yore.
25. If an election is called, I don’t think Diana will make much difference.
I thought it was interesting that despite the new Diana pictures, all the main BBC and ITV news programmes yesterday led with Cameron. I think they may well have considered leading with Diana but with a lot of criticism of broadcasting dumbing down etc they knew on this occasion they had to be serious and lead on Cameron.
If an election is called we will be into extended TV news bulletins. Similar considerations will apply as they did yesterday - the election will still receive blanket coverage.
27. Rubbish….Norway is quality and has trolls just like pb.com
26 Tom, I think 4%-5% is the tipping point as regards the weekend polls, 4% or below and he’ll not proceed. 5% or more and it’a a poll on Nov 1. Of course he may be more influenced by private polls of a number of marginals, which we’ll never see.
31 Jimbo.
29. Why do you think those Norsemen were so keen to get over here and settle in Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Norfolk?
Further to 22 a lot will depend on how the result is presented. If the media were to compare a new Labour lead with the 11% last week then a reduction to 6-7% would look good. But of comparison made with last week-ends c8% then Cameron would probably only receive positive publicity if new lead 5% or less.
34 Theakston’s?
What the polls will not be able measure is impact of Cameron on the TV every day, as would be the case in a General Election. Like him or not, he is a very adept performer in that medium and easily outshines Brown.
In short, a modest post-conference bounce for Cameron could be just that and nothing more. Or it could be the beginning of a more significant improvement in his fortunes following more widespread focus on his performance. Which of the two possibilities were true would not be apparent however until after the election had been called and the campaign were underway.
34. They didn’t really settle too much….it was more like a trip to ibiza or faliraki…..plunder, rape and pillage then back to the homeland to feast off the memories and plan next summer’s holiday
Looks like the election is on (as Nick Palmer knows, the polling is looking very good for Brown), Brown has today been in Basildon:
“Gordon Brown has opened a state-of-the-art heart unit on a visit to Basildon hospital.
Accompanied by Health Secretary Alan Johnston and minister Lord Darzi, the PM officially opened the Essex Cardiothoracic Centre this morning. The £60 million centre opened to patients on 1 July and is one of the most modern of its kind in the country.
Mr Brown met with surgeons in the operating theatre and with nurses on one of the wards. He also took time to meet patients and discuss the treatment they are receiving.”
BTW, the cardiac unit has actually opened 3 months ago…
25Todays Di footage makes clear the real verdict on the cause of Di’s death -hounding by the paparazzi ie the media.
And yes it will force politics off the front page a sthe nation relives the whol ething for the last time.
Rogerh
30. Completely agree once an election is announced.
But yesterday Sky News led where the tabloids were bound to go: put Diana up first ahead of Cameron. The real news was made on IHT I think. Cameron speaking off the cuff is not really imho what will change people’s minds about voting Tory. Incidentally that’s one reason why I think today’s YouGov is important, because any shift back to the Tories will already be well in place.
29. et. al. Norway is a beautiful country. Had a fab 2 weeks skiing there once - gorgeous.
12. Mark, BNP are working the seat hard
41. which resort did you go skiing in?
Somehow I just can’t see GB looking at the next raft of polls and saying, ‘Yeah, but if I deduct X for my conference bounce, Y for Cameron’s, factor in my leadership bounce, which may or may not last, factor in the marginals, factor in those unlikely to vote, factor in those p*ssed off at having to vote in an unnecessary election… Yep, great, It’s in the bag. I’m off to Buck House!’ Is he really about to gamble the thing he’s striven for all his adult life on these sort of variables and calculations? I don’t think it will happen.
39 - That’s what usually happens! They built a bridge near me with local govt, central govt and european money. Very nice too. Opened to traffic about 4 months before some local bod came and actually “cut the ribbon” so to speak.
39 as Nick Palmer knows, the polling is looking very good for Brown
Source please.
41. Yes, and they’ve got fjords. And lots and lots of money. The only country in the world with a pension.
I’ve also heard that Oslo is so expensive it’s actually funny. Which sounds more interesting than “actually quite expensive” Copenhagen.
39 - This being a hospital that opened three months ago. Brown being so cynical that he dragged back a patient that was at the orginal ‘opening’.
47 - Nick Palmer
39, 45 - Indeed. Otherwise you’d get a host of stories (fairly) about ‘this facility is ready to be used, but can’t because it hasn’t been opened yet… rant on etc.’
41. Just on Sky News. Sky News’s audience is about the same as UKTV Style+1. Sky News is a rich mans plaything- it’s political significance lies in the fact that it employs people whose judgement is respected by other journalists, and that because it’s on all the time, everyone in politics watches it. In terms of actual audience it’s insignificant.
39. Iain Dale has more details on this Brown spin story..
I’m going to stick my neck out here..
I reckon the following;
(1) Monday - Most people in my focus group [ my office
]picked up on IHT - they *really* liked it. Not one of my colleagues thought IHT was “fair”.
(2) Tuesday - Most people I spoke to picked up on Gordon Browns Iraq Spin - and didn’t like it (seriously they really thought it was below the belt. Not cricket. Blatant exploitation of troops. As bad as Blair etc etc) Real potential to damage Browns image here.
(3) Wednesday - Camerons speech was less noticed (thank you Diana inquest) but those who did pick up on it, were impressed. Not bowled over, but impressed. Cameron surprised them
(4) Mail/Times/Express/Sun editorals largely positive last few days
(5) Swing voters in Redditch preferred Cameron (although they did watch the speech, to be fair, so may be unrepresentative)
(6) Rediscovered party unity and no internal sniping helps avoid party split stories
I estimate the base situation to be 34/40 Con/Lab. I don’t think the Conservatives are worse than that, or Labour better - in absolute reality. It isn’t 1997/2001 - this Labour government won’t ever match 42% again - and Conservatives will never drop (in reality) below Howards 33% total in 2005, as they have made some progress in broadening their appeal, however marginally, since then.
As a consequence of the above, I expect the gap to close to zero with a 3% swing from Labour to Conservative.
Polls will show parity at 37/37 versus a Lib Dem vote share roughly similar to previous polls.
I think Cameron has shored up his base PLUS added a few floaters here and there. Not many, not all. But some.
Therefore, his maximum theoretical share is ~39% , his minimum is ~34% and I think he will be at 37% in the post-poll bounce.
Discuss.
24 - I’d definitely rather live in Denmark. No contest. Sean, people are just different, get over it.
34. Actually Jimbo that is wrong - there is abundant evidence of large scale Danish settlements in the eastern counties of England - historical records, linguistic, placename, even DNA.
The Danish input into the modern English character is substantial although this is not widely recognised.
Is it usual procedure for hospitals to be officially opened twice. Interesting.
54. Why don’t you then?
re Basildon opening, I thought Labour just announced “new” policies several times, I had not realised that this habit had extended to the opening of medical facilities.
Brown’s favourite tune if he had an ipod “New York New York so good they named it twice….”
Tony Benn to run for Kensington? What’s that all about?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7028042.stm
55 - Yup, basically when you take in the Norman influx as well we are all immigrants.
49 Come on, your post starts “Looks like the election is on” - what precisely is your evidence for stating that as Nick Palmer knows, the polling is looking very good for Brown
Just re-stating Nick Palmer’s name just aint enough!
57 - eh? I’d rather live in Denmark than California - I didn’t say I’d rather live in Denmark than lovely sunny Clerkenwell.
Go away you little scrote
53 - Interesting… where do you work that people notice things like that - in my office more typical is ‘Cameron - who’s that?’ ‘Oh, is Brown in charge now… when did that happen?’
56 MB. Not that uncommon. The more so if you get a royal, a senior politicians or a “celebtity” to do the honours.
52. Brown is an idiot. These spin stories will SEVERELY damage him.
Once people realise he’s trying to spin just as much as Blair, they will rapidly conclude he is not different to Blair, represents no change and his ratings will crash.
Wot an idiot.
49. Presumably you mean Nick Palmers “oh so accurate” canvass return from his marginal seat of Broxtowe? Or do you mean Labours private polling which showed “mixed” (ie. bad) results?
61 - Well I presume from the fact that Nick Palmer is very confident of increasing his majority and the number of Labour MPs as a whole that he is fully aware of all the private polling and that the private polling must be very impressive… that may not be the case…
55. I wasn’t being serious old boy but I do prefer Norway to Denmark, its probably cos all the good Danes moved to blighty back in 800 AD
64 On god !! “celebtity”
… Sorry, I didn’t mean Jordan honestly !!
Ha-ha, opening an hospital twice. Well, they announce everything twice, three times, four times, so why not open everything upteen times? What a shower they are.
You couldn’t make it up…
Re 53 and 63. We had a heated discussion at work on Britney’s problems yesterday. General consensus: she is an idiot.
60. A meaningless remark. Can you show me a country where, by some definition, the people are NOT all immigrants?
All humans came from Africa. Everyone outside the Olduvai Gorge is an immigrant. Means nothing.
Stonch, I saw you say you were voting Labour this time (whenever that is…). Seeing as you’ve said you vote all parties, why labour now?
69. Could this mean trouble for Paddy Power ? Gordon could announce an election on Friday, Saturday, Sunday & Monday and they have to pay out on each ?
42. Andrea
Any thoughts as to whether the BNP could gain most from Tories or Labour?
43. - sorry working in the background hence delay! Geilo. Beautiful place.
53. (5) Oh come come. Aside from the disingenuity in suddenly declaring Sky News to be important they interviewed 4 people in Redditch, two of whom looked like Michael Gove i.e. about 3 years old.
56 — actually, yes, it is standard procedure for wards to be opened twice: once for patients and once by the visiting nob. Same with roads and buildings.
They couldn’t leave all the patients queueing in the car park for weeks (or even hours) till Gordon found a free spot in his diary.
Gordon’s speech got the front page of the Sun. Thanks to Dead Diana standing in a lift, Cameron was shunted off the front page. Likewise in the Mail. However, the almost universally positive coverage on the BBC website and radio stations that evening has made Cameron’s speech, and the tory conference in general, pretty hard to ignore. I think the polls will show the parties more or less even on 36/36 or a 36/37 split to labour, but Brown’s Iraq gaffe may tilt the balance in the Conservative’s favour.
59. Apparently, Tony Benn’s granddaughter is already a Labour candidate for the next election. If he did stand, and somehow won (pretty implausible, I know - especially in Kensington! - but hypothetically), that would surely be the first occasion that a grandfather and grandchild had been in the Commons together. Just something for the trivia buffs to watch out for…
78 - If Tony Benn won Kensington then there would probably be only about 10 Conservative and LibDem MP’s left in Parliament.
71 - “Everyone outside the Olduvai Gorge is an immigrant”
77: It’s not where but how they reported it. Apart from C4 news and the Mirror it got good reviews, Brown’s were more mixed.
39 - It is not unusual for places to open for “service” unobtrusively and have an official opening ceremony at a different time. In fact, this is often the case.
There is no parallel with announcing the same funding twice, or the double-counting of NHS spending increases in Labour’s first term, unless the unit had already been “ifficiall” opened by a different passing Labour dignitary.
You’d hardly want to delay the opening of a hospital because a politician had to rearrange their visit, so the opening ceremony date is allowed to be held in flux. Calm down lads.
78. Alasdair, Tony Benn’s grand-daughter (who is not 18 yet) is indeed a candidate but in safe Tory seat
76. Correct. Wards are always opened twice. Once to get the thing actually running, and then ‘officially’. To see the Tory counter-spin on this suggests to me 1. they are up for a fight (which is actually quite good to see) and 2. they are going to play as dirty as anyone ever has.
79 - According to Nick Palmer (from his canvassing and labour party private polling) that is near enough the result of the next general election…
For those bored of waiting for elections or otherwise…
Excellent article by Matt Frei on the New GW
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7027166.stm
80. You know what I mean!
Really have got to go now. Looking after my daughter. Ciao ciao. Good luck with the polls everyone.
Had a fab 2 weeks skiing there once
impossible - unless your idea of good skiing is to go up and down the same few slopes continuously for 2 weeks.
Fleischer’s hotel in Voss is very nice and makes for a great Winter holiday but there’s not enough alpine skiing in Norway for ‘a fab holiday’, even at Lillehammer.
Your casual use of superlatives is of course revealing in a leftie tub thumper as Stakhanovite tractor production numbers always need a good dash of hyperbole to sell them to the workers.
The IHT policy is bound to lose Cameron the accountants’ vote. They’ll be mega-pissed off when their middle class clients no longer drop by for advice on how to avoid it.
Cameron will remain part of the media narrative as long as Brown continues to tease about the election. The broadcasters are, in effect, already in ‘equal time’ mode to avoid any allegations of bias.
My reading of Blackpool from media perspective is that the correspondents were ready for a new narrative… close election in prospect, don’t underestimate Cameron, is Brown too good to be true?
I think the gap will go from 11 to 5 in the You gov poll.
60. The Norman ‘influx’ was demographically insignificant compared the Norse one - but culturally arguably even more important.
On the polling I suspect that Casino Royale is right - I expect nearly level pegging, this being an outlier in the Tories favour this time.
My hunch is that the underlying picture is something like Lab:Con 39:34 ie both parties improved over 2005, but Labour more so. This will inded be near the mid-point of the two outlying polls if it is near level pegging.
One seriously doubts whether Brown would have the resolve to call an election after such an outlying poll in the Tories favour. However, the polls might not be so good for the Tories…
Latest rumour from Scotland.
A Lib Dem MP joining another party. Not yet clear which party but SNP would seem most likliest.
88. Rubbish, Geilo is a fine resort, spent many a happy winter there,
back on topic…..this election is still up in the air but I do feel that everyone is mobilised now for Tuesday, will people be able to back down
93. Is it Ming joining Labour?
On Cameons approval ratings…
In the last 6 months, Cameron’s Approval has gone from -3 to -22. Why?
Until August, the number of people who said they were satisfied
96- you have forgotten to paste the second part of the Labour brief
53 - I think your bang on,
my only quibble is around whether too many swing voters have made up their minds and not bothered to look at the Tories because their opinion of Cameron had hardend pre conference.
The Tory conference was as good as the Labour one in terms of what it presented, thats why i think neutral observers would view the parties as almost level pegging ( if they were bothered to watch).
97. Perhaps someone felt sorry for the rest of us and cut him off.
94 Geilo is very nice but with about 20 odd lifts and a few KM of slopes it’s not exactly a skiing paradise.
Each to their own but ‘fab’ is not an adjective that can objectively be applied to Norwegian skiing.
Re 53, 90 and 92. I think you are being far too generous to the Tories. I would imagine that in the new polls Labour are at least 10 points ahead. Brown must know this.
88. You really are one of the most obnoxious people on any forum I’ve been. I choose my superlatives carefully, as befitting my academic background but I also won’t have a dope-head telling me what and what have not been fabulous times in my life. The 2 weeks in Geilo were fabulous skiing, not least because I was learning to ski (aged 9), and because much of the time we went on lengthy, wondrous, cross-country excursions. Now don’t be a prat.
Back on topic … 89. actually I do know of one tax expert (Tory) who thinks the Tory policy is incredibly ill-conceived. He reckons it will simply fuel another housing boom, in the way that Lawson’s Miras Madness did … not my words but his.
a little bird has whispered in my ear that the CH 4 poll shows a 3% labour, haven’t got any details but the source is believable.
68 Jack W - agree that not unusual for a hospital to open for business then be officially opened with a bit of a flourish. Unusual though for the same facility to be opened officially more than once.
a little bird has whispered in my ear that the CH 4 poll shows a 3% labour lead, haven’t got any details but the source is believable.
re 29 Quite agree had a fabulous time in Trodheim and Bodo this summer. If you can go and see the midnight sun I’d recommend it - it’s spectacular.
76/82/84
Total rubbish. For three reasons.
(1) Why Gordon? Another minister - like the health secretary, or a junior minister - could have opened it.
(2) Why now? The fact he’s opening it just days before he might announce a general election, after he’s reshuffled his diary couldn’t at all have anything to do with it, could it? No. Course not.
(3) Change? The MOST important point. Gordon has positioned himself as a figure of change. An honest guy. “Not flash, just Gordon”. The real deal. Not like Blair. No spin, just honesty.
If people see he is being misleading and deceitful (however subtly) they will conclude he is just the same, a bit of a tw*t for pretending otherwise and go off him and Labour very quickly.
Mark my words.
84: It’s not dirty, more playing Labour at their own game.
103. JGC - very interesting. Genuine? Or mischief money-making?
97. lol, but no..a greatl long piece of analysis got eaten by something..
Still at least I’ll make it shorter this time!
Basically it saaid that until last month, Camerons Satisfaction rating was always about 30%. it fell off a cliff last month because a lot of Tories moved over to saying they were disatisfied- ended up with only 23% satisfaction.
My assumption is that Conference means he’ll get those back and his approval will be back c30%.
On disatisfaction there’s a longer term trend of his dissat numbers moving from 17% when he start to 27% last autumn, to 33% this summer to 39% in august and 45% in September. Only the last months change is explicable by the wave of disatisfied Tory supporters, so I’;d expect it to settle at about 35-40% after confernce.
A lot of the increase in his dissat number
103. “a little bird has whispered in my ear”
Nick Palmer??
110. Saved by the mystery editor again!
re 83 Andrea will she be 18 in time? Unlikely she’ll get elected but it would be embarassing for her to be twiddling her thumbs waiting to become old enough to take the oath.
102 oh OK then - if you were 9 fabulous is fair enough.
dope-head? no - in fact when it comes to being obnoxious you’re pretty good at it. And you can always tell when somebody is a prissy intellectual lightweight when they start talking about their ‘academic’ background. oh dear oh dear.
102 - On housing, I had not thought of that angle, but you are right that the Tory proposals will only encourage people to look at property as a way of saving for their retirement, in preference to pensions.
If anything one would think that the government should be looking at changes that would cool the housing market (without killing it). Chief amongst these would be changing the rules that subsidise the mortgages of buy-to-let investors (by offsetting the cost of interest payments against the income from rent).
This would do much more to help first-time buyers than fiddling with stamp duty.
103. I understood that the polling is still going on. Can we trust you?
Iain Dale has a potentially MASSIVE scoop…
Guardian Poll to Show Tory Lead?
Sources close to The Guardian are indicating to me that their poll tomorrow will show a Tory lead of three points. If that is true (and I have no way of verifying it at the moment), and the YouGov poll for the Telegraph shows a similarly dramatic turnaround, then it would surely mean that all election bets are off. It doesn’t indicate how Brown will explain the volte face, but that is something for us all to look forward to and relish.
As this site is called “Political Betting” i would like to suggest a bet with minimum downside.
The no overall majority price on Betfair is still trading well over 2/1. If Brown goes it might drift a little but the nearer to an election cover bets may be taken out on this.
IF there is no election then the price is bound to come in as people percieve that GB may have lost his chance.
What do others think??
chaps as always in these situations the source ( not Nick Palmer ) must remain anonymous but I believe it is true. Not money making or ramping on my part
grrrr. … A lot of the increase in his dissat number this month is from Tories- (he had a negative rating from Tories in September) but it’s clear that Cameron is gradually adding to the number on non-tories who are diatisfied with him (but nothing like at the levels of IDS or Howard).
The interesting question is whether it’s because peole don’t know what he stands for. When asked attrubute questions, the main reasons for disliking Cameron seem to be vagueness, insubstantialness, incoherence. It’s quite possible the Tories have answered those questions this month with firmer policy pledges- but are they policy pledges people like?
” re 83 Andrea will she be 18 in time? Unlikely she’ll get elected but it would be embarassing for her to be twiddling her thumbs waiting to become old enough to take the oath. ”
If she’s not 18 at the time of the election period, she can’t stand as a candidate…
Matt.
104 Ted. Not so. It’s not unusual to have a local to do the first honours and then have the main event with a big knob down the line.
This is partly to say that the facility has been officially opened in case no senior figure becomes available, becomes unavailable or cancels.
However it shows the fever pitch that the political scene is at that almost every waking hour of all senior politicians will analysed to death.
114. Erm, well does being a Senior Lecturer and then Senior Research Fellow at a top Uni make me a lightweight …? Hmmm.
Anyway, much more interesting stuff now going on re. the polls or alleged polls.
Brown should ignore these polls, instant poll leads can vanish as quickly as they arrive. The, ‘bounce’ will soon reverse once the GE is called.
124. Has Cameron got bouncebackability ?
105/117: I’m not the source for either, but having predicted level pegging a +3 and -3 look a plausible straddle. Presumably the Yougov is slightly more recent - ICM for tomorrow is likely to be mostly reflecting the IHT stuff earlier in the week.
As for the earlier discussion, I grew up in Denmark and loved it. sean will feel that explains a lot!
HEALTH WARNING
Iain Dale reports he’s been told ICM tomorrow shows a 3% Tory lead
Shepshed by-election 4,7,12. Labours last minute leaflet claiming BNP hard pressing them - must mean one of the others Con or LIBDEM is pressing them. Much more work by all parties than usual (wonder why?) means result will be even more meaningless in terms of extrapolation to General Election unless Labour at least hold their own there
117. If that *is* true, my reaction to that would be almost sexual
Damn - distracted by phone and I’m late with news again
Is the issue of Brown’s promise of “no more spin” going to be the same as Major’s “back to basics”?
An 8 point cut from 11 to 3 Labour lead in the c4 you gov poll would exceed expectations.
Re my previous infomation, checked with the oracle and they have confirmed Iain Dale’s story ( I misunderstood because I thought it was tonights poll) that the poll in The Guardian tomorrow shows a 3 point tory lead. The misinfo was my fault for not listening properly
132. That means Nick Palmers “straddle” is more of a side saddle ?
116 I don’t know how quickly Yougov turn these things round, but I’d have thought that even if the polling has now been done, it would take a few hours to sort the figures out.
120 MORI’s figures need to treated with caution, as the figures for approval/disapproval are not adjusted by likelihood to vote. They will always be skewed in favour of Labour. The trend however is clear. David Cameron’s popularity has tended to decline since the Summer of 2006, commencing it seems, with Labour’s “hug a hoodie” attack.
122 Jack W but to have 1 local opening followed by a cabinet minister and then later the PM is pure spin.
124. But as Mike points out a good poll for Tories could influence tomorrow’s headlines and give Cameron some good publicity in the short term.
95
He already did that in March this year.
126. YOOOOOUUURRR NOT SINNGGIINNG ANY-MOOOORRE!!
135 HF. Let’s just say I’ve been involved in these sort of functions and it’s not that unusual.
That there is a political motivation to it all is obvious. But hey he’s a politician and all parties do it !!
134. Indeed. If the ICM poll is right, will be interesting whether confirmed by Yougov… Presumably ICM would have been doing fieldwork since Tuesday to get a result now?
On the apporval rating- the balance is that there’s a long history of them asking the same question- So you can compare Tory leaders against each other, even if not against Labour.. Camerons decline is not as fast as IDS’s or Hagues, but is has been consistent and in one direction. I think Sept’s numbrs will bounce back, but only to the status quo ante of c-10, then steadily decline again.
I’m not interested in who wins, (although I think Labour will) I believe it is important that a PM has a mandate.
EXCLUSIVE !!!!….
Brown has a party political broadcast booked for Tuesday night apparantly.
Could this be the biggest mistake he’ll ever make !!!
Don’t know if he is committed now or can pull back from the brink.
This is getting exciting.
Matt.
83 - According to the Guardian, today is her 18th birthday, so no problem about standing.
134 Labour have been very successful at repetition of Hug a Hoodie (helped by Heffer & co) and at the “Hello cloud, hello tree” representation. Notice how often Nick P and other Labour posters manage to get in a comment about Cameron’s vagueness (not complaining that’s expected).
Hard though to continue that when there is a distinctive edge as there is now - can claim flip flop but Cameron gave a coherent story back to two years ago which makes that hard to stick.
138. Well I can’t work that out. Surely if, big if, there’s a poll with a Tory lead then Brown has just been saved from making an enormous mistake? Tories would have much much preferred him to go ahead and THEN find this out!
While it would be fantastic news better than I expected (22 above)
I think it is premature to assume the suggested 3% is correct.
123: ‘Senior Lecturer and then Senior Research Fellow at a top Uni…’
When even our most esteemed academics refer to a university as a ‘Uni’ like a character from an Aussie soap one knows the writing is on the wall.
Is it only me, or is anyone else having trouble connecting to Spreadfair?
Hooray!
There is so much bounce and counter-bounce this election is turning into the SpaceHopper duel.
As Ben Brogan said earlier: Tories up, Labour down, election off
if you believe the 3% lead stuff, then go to Hills and snap up the 11/4 on no election while it lasts.
126. Does Danish bacon really taste better in Denmark?
Kind of like the Guinness always tatstes better in Ireland myth. No it doesn’t it takes like road tar everywhere. Doctors should still be prescribing that stuff.
127. Thats frightening if its true as it provides a little slippage room for the Tories before its level pegging and, in theory, all to play for. One of the most important issues for the Tories is to be in the race and slugging it out with a piece of lead pipe. I know it doesnt sound pretty but the public want their oppositions to show their mettle.
Baskerville - mine seems, OK but prices have moved in response to the naked ramping going on here!
148, Baskerville what browser are you using? Cantor can be very iffy with browsers other than Internet Explorer.
147. For goodness sake - it’s called abbreviation for the purposes of quick txt type. Argh!!!!! Uni pple can actually be part of the real world, you know.
Caution needed re. the 3% …
150 the problem is that there are still folk in number 10 who are wedded to an election in Novemeber and the claim about a party political broadcast on Tuesday is very believable
97. “96- you have forgotten to paste the second part of the Labour brief”
What’s happened to that charming ‘Chris from Paris’ who used to post here during the French elections. Can we have him back in exchange for this tribal version that we haven’t seen before.
If the Cons are 3% ahead does that imply a shocking low score for the LDs ? 39/36/15 ?
153. I’m using IE, but it won’t load up. Will try a reboot.
142 - Some of us remember Callaghan did the same and told the country that there will not be an election.
151 - Guinness will only taste worse outside of Ireland if thet keg in question has been handled very badly.
123. How pompous!
If the 3 point tory lead is true, then what would be the ‘real’ figure taking into acount the confrence bounce?
123 well it might I don’t know but you’re quite right the polls are much more interesting.
I really don’t mean to be obnoxious and always regret it if I come over that way but seriously - you’re not the only one with lots of postgraduate qualifications so don’t labour the point. As a final sign-off I will let the libellous comment about me being a dope head go - I’m too pleased with the ICM poll rumours to be upset.
158. No idea then, I’ve just tried it there and it seems ok.
As it is though I;m nto touching that seat market at the moment, way too volatile.
155- I didn’t think you could book party politcals. i thought you were just assigned them in a rota- around Conferences, electons, etc etc. Are people confusing party politcal with Prime Ministerial Broadcasts?
156 Roger, it’s election fever and tribes matter more then. I’m even beginning to think your posts might not be so agnostic - thinking you might be a Labour supporter
159. Sure nobody drinks it here anymore other tourists or using it as stomach lining before a bender….
160. Not really - the accusation was that I am academically lightweight. Just not true in terms of what I’ve done and where I’m at so what am I supposed to do - agree?
Anyway, I’m sure we have much more exciting things to discuss than whether or not Geilo is good for skiing and whether or not I’m a serious academic. Let’s just get back to the politics, which is suddenly remarkable!!! If there is a serious turning in the polls then I just than Gawd Gord found out in time.
I thought Guinness shut down the UK brewery a few years ago and we now we get it shiped direct from Dublin?!
Can we have some expert commentary om these poll rumours from Red Flump, Roger, Icarus and, of course, Nick?
Iain Dale says 3% Labour lead in the Ch4 poll tonight.
I’d have taken that an hour ago…
I think Brown is going to be punished big time for his troop withdrawal stunt that backfired. It was a spin too far and many people are genuinely disgusted by it.
161. Simon I’m no pollologist or what they are called but I personally cant believe the Tories are quite ahead out in the country.
169… Ah, but maybe Iain’s source is jgc off pb.com!
Cameron has written to Brown seeking the traditional access to the civil service accorded to the opposition in the run up to an election.
Let’s see… ICM 8pt deficit to 3pt lead. What a conference! Well done William George and Dave.
156- Actually I was a bit tribal in my defence of Sarkozy but you didn’t care…
I was just having a bit of fun and even Brit spin seemed to find that funny in his answer (at 110)
For the record, I don’t know how I would vote in the UK. being a french right-winger I’m probably near centre-left in Britain…
I’ve tried to verify the “Dale 3% lead” with a contact at the “Gruntfutock” but have been told “it’s news to me” !!
Now bearing in mind this is the “Gruntfutock” where some of the staff regard their “colleagues” with barely disguised contempt, then “it’s news to me” doesn’t carry the weight I’d like.
Sorry … but I tried !!
172: do we think GB has now reached - how can I put this delicately? - the point of no return where even reciting the 1966 World Cup squad is going to be no good to him?
174 - I think the only party that far to the left these days is the Lib Dems.
I’d expect a 3-4 point Labour lead. Nothing too different from 2005. A few Lib to lab switchers and a handful of Lab to Tory ones.
Labour 39%
Conservative 35%
Lib Dem 18%
Overall message - Cameron is a slight improvement but the Tories haven’t changed.
156/174- Frankly i think Chris has earned the right to take the mick occassionally. He secured me my first winning bets on politics for a long time!
I’m a partisan, and proud of it, but I hope I’m troll-ish. If I were, I’d deserve to be picked up on it.
165. Ted. How dare you impugn my impartiality!! I think it’s outrageous that politicians should seek political capital out of our brave public servanbts………
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Arts/Arts_/site_furniture/2007/06/11/maggietank460.jpg
The best for the Tories (which would be exceptional) is a 3% lead for Labour. Anything else reported is just ramping.
” 155- I didn’t think you could book party politcals. i thought you were just assigned them in a rota- around Conferences, electons, etc etc. Are people confusing party politcal with Prime Ministerial Broadcasts? ”
You may be right; the actual wording used was ‘Brown has scheduled a party political broadcast for Tuesday evening’.
Booked (my wording) / scheduled (the actual wording) are different things.
I assume you can’t just turn up and do it and hour before, it’ll need filming and scheduling into BBC & ITV’s programming.
Someone will know for sure.
Matt.
157 If true that Baxter gives a National Prediction: LAB majority 70
Lib Dems on 6 seats!
Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats
CON 33.24% 209 36.00% 255
LAB 36.21% 346 39.00% 360
LIB 22.65% 66 15.00% 6
Reverse gives
National Prediction: LAB majority 16
Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats
CON 33.24% 209 39.00% 283
LAB 36.21% 346 36.00% 333
LIB 22.65% 66 15.00% 6
Pretty much in line with predictions on this site
170. Saves Dublinising the UK water don’t it.
168 - yes that’s correct.
164 If its the PSR or an announcement about Iraq there would most likely be a ministerial broadcast with Wednesday being the opposition reply. More ramping by Brown a possibility though.
164 If its the PSR or an announcement about Iraq there would most likely be a ministerial broadcast with Wednesday being the opposition reply. More ramping by Brown a possibility though.
156. Agreed roger
Apologies for double posting and error “CSR” not PSR.
Election on again!!
“Earlier, Mr Brown refused to answer reporters’ questions about his election plans as he arrived to visit a hospital in Basildon, Essex.
He did however give a broad grin when challenged to “Smile if it’s a November election”.”
From the Guardian web site
Test Steady it’s totally unconfirmed, as Dale himself makes clear. Betfair is pretty unmoved at the moment which may, or may not, mean anything.
If Dale’s right, that’s YouGov Labour lead slashed from 11 to 3 and ICM’s Labour lead of 6 turned into a Tory lead of 3 - all in a matter of days. Can we have some shots of Gordon’s finger nails next time he’s out in public please?
From the last thread:
340. The problem with American healthcare is the 40 million who are not covered, and the 30 million or so who think they are covered but get refused payment on technicalities when they actually have a problem. Their education system is equally atrocious with the poorest schools getting the least money due to the lack of tax redistribution from rich areas to poor area. These views are nothing to do with envy - the majority of Americans would agree that their healthcare and education system is a shambles. The problem is the political system, which is fragmented, gridlocked and far too much in the hands of special interests; and also the news media which is superficial, lazy and in some cases prone to extreme bias beyond anything we see in the UK.
However, that being said, many of the problems of not having an adequate social model can arise from having one that is too bureaucratic and deters investment and reduces economic growth. This is what we see in many parts of France, where Algerian ghettos rival the worse parts of LA.
As for seanT’s comments on how Denmark would rank by average GDP per capita, I think Hubert Humphrey’s point stands that a society must ultimately be judged by how it treats its most vulnerable.
re 121 I thought the disqualifications only referred to sitting as an MP. You always could (in days of yore) stand for parliament (a la Benn grandpere in his Stansgate days) even if you couldn’t take up your seat. Similarly there used to be nothing to stop a 20 year old or an Anglican priest from standing, merely that if elected they wouldn’t be able to sit
141
‘I’m not interested in who wins, (although I think Labour will) I believe it is important that a PM has a mandate.’
Your not interested who wins!!!!!!!Your now spinning more than Gordo.
Oh well 3% Lab lead! Not quite as good but still bloody good!
with all the potential ramping going on what’s happening to the Betfair price - can’t access it at work?
The ramping is working Betfair best back price now 1.74.
That quick enough Chris A
188- Ok ok sorry guys, i’ll never try to make a joke on this site again…
Test
On the face of it you’d prefer a Labour lead because GB might still go for it. Any Tory lead and the GE’s deader than Elvis which would disappoint you. No?
Just teasing!
if someone is lying to jgc and Dale.. Do they deserve to be exposed for it? To do that you’d need to know tht Dale and PB.com can move spread markets, and be prepared to take go the other way as the lemmings rush in on your false information.
Personally I think it’s more likely thiat the 3% tory leads are tru than someone’s ramping, but if it isn’t I hope people will be prepared to confront their sources and expose them if needed.
Betfair now moving 1.57 to 1.72
200. That’s the problem with being a nice poster. You aren’t allowed to behave like the rest of us! After all there are only three or four of you
…….where is Andrea?
138…….luv it
202. Agreed but its up to people who are going to stake their money to make their own judgements.
I personally cant see the Tories having a real 3% lead in the country right now, just as I cant see Labour having 11%.
This is SO funny!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7027429.stm
Talk about winding Gordon up
A fellow from Ipsos/Mori on radio 5 this morning said that Labour’s private polling in marginals was “not rosy” for them.
After all, it’s the marginals that count, the rest are foregone conclusions.
Though he may write about it, Brown is not known for his courage so will probably back down from an election, though with the economic cycle turning and trouble ahead this may have been his last opportunity to have a chance of winning for several years.
Just tried to get £30 on WH against a GE this year (which would have got me a nice little arb on an earlier wager on Betfair) - nothing doing! I phoned them, and the lady I spoke to stated the market had been suspended.
3% … take with pinch of salt. I suspect if it means anything it’s that one of the two polls shows a Lab lead of 3%.
The part of me that just likes politics is happy with that - ‘cos elections are fun. The part of me that likes Labour is worried. I don’t really want Gordon to go for it without something nearer 6% plus. To risk it and lose would be unbelievable … besides the thought of Cameron as PM makes me shudder from head to toe.
Hills have suspended the Will there be an election this year market.
They are laying 11/4 a hung parliament which is only 9/4 on Betfair and likely to shorten if this poll leak is true.
OK… further to my post at 208, they did just kindly allow me to place £5 online at 11/4. Whoo…!
Yokel. I hope you made something on A+L and Barclays. I don’t like gambling on shares but I couldn’t resist Barclays at 575 or A+L at 748. Possibly time to sell A+L but Barclays should be good for as long as you want (and a 6% dividend)
207 - Indeed, if he gives access then he has confirmed an election. If not he has effectively backed away!
207 oh can you imagine how happy broon was when that landed on his fingernail covered desk!
Gordon Brown Weeks buy price is on the drift.
Betfair down again to 1.62. Someone thinks Dale’s got his facts wrong.
207. Brilliant. Methinks Brave Sir Gordon has underestimated Dave and his team of young whippersnappers.
He must be sh!tting himself. How DOES he get out of this pickle without destroying his credibility?
It took Blair 8 years to become a lame duck. Brown’s managed it in 3 months!
211 HG. All of a fiver !!!!
Hills can be stingy bastards at times !!
207. I’ll say this about Dave. I’m not a huge fan because I think he was pissing about with the kind of agendas that frankly only the wealthy with too much time & money on their hands can afford to spend so much time on BUT I heard him on R4 at lunchtime today and he actually sounded sure of himself.
By the way, the Tories look like they have further tax plans on the way, they just didnt mention them at conference.
216 Wouldn’t be the first time.
219. All they need now is a juicy defector and the tables will be completely turned
Isn’t it a bit crazy taking a poll minutes after the leaders speech at a Party Conference? It’s obviously going to be skewed. Why don’t they wait a couple of days and find out the settled opinion of the voters?
207 - yes I must agree that is truly hilarious! Well done to Cameron on that one, on the face of it it’s just amusing, but actually if you think it points out why Brown’s mysterious behaviour over the election shows a certain contempt for the way things should be done.
209 - I think it will make a lot of people pause for thought. I don’t think the Tories could conceivably win this election because very few people can see Cameron as PM.
I’m not saying this 3% news is wrong. Just don’t forget Ealing Southall. We had all sorts of extraordinary stories about Tory fortunes. ‘Extraordinary’ in the sense of ‘extraordinarily wrong’ as it turned out!
Let’s see …!
222. Perhaps they are in cahoots with Betfair!
Roger Did you say the same last week?
222 - were you saying the same last week, Rog old bean?
(Forgive me if you were, it’s impossible keep up with this site at the moment!)
Hold on - Dale claiming you’re all BOTH right.
Yougov; 3% Lab lead, ICM/Guardian; 3% Tory lead.
Makes more sense, no?
But, yes, you are right about Iain Dale. He is often waaaaaay off the mark and doesn’t bother checking stories before publishing them in a fit of excitement.
BUT.. he isn’t making this stuff up and more than one person has said the same thing.
Interesting..
I’d be tempted to suggest that we wait for any poll to actually get published before we read too much into leaked results, as it is a 3% Labour lead is a dramatic reverse for them and a 3% Conservative lead would (even taking into acount the “conference effect”) be simply amazing!
What will now be key is the Conservatives and DC retaining the news agenda and not allowing it to slip as has been the case since early September, the story about Brown’s multiple hospital openings is the kind of thing that might get a little traction IMHO… but we’ll see (on both counts).
216 - 8/11 now, obviously enough people believe it to want to get out in case it goes over evens this evening. I’m leaving well alone for now.
Most people suggest that Cameron’s confidence at Blackpool in challenging Brown so strongly to call the election was bravado. But it could have been something else. The Tories do their own polling in marginals too and could well have had figures that showed things much closer than the pre-conference headlines suggested. Just a thought, but it’s possible Ashcroft’s leg work might mean Cameron genuinely fancies an early election.
For what it’s worth, I remain convinced that Brown will not call an election. And I draw your attention to a post from early September in which I suggested selling Labour seats directly after their conference. At the time I suggested you might need ‘a strong stomach’. The next few days will show if I was right.
I think these polls are so meaningless if I was Brown I’d ignore them. His private pollsters will have given him the underlying picture and this wont change with one speech. It’s on that that he’ll make his judgement. I think he’ll probably go ahead. His only danger is poor turnout. I doubt his pollsters can gauge this very accurately.
228 - both represent an identical swing in Tory fortunes, I think? - YouGov had Labour a stonking great 11 points ahead don’t forget.
Iain Dale now saying the Guardian will show a “slim” Labour lead, ditto Ch4 (which he suggests could mean 3%>)… make of that what you will.
222: Roger, if you keep posting silly things like that I’ll start cut and pasting what you said about the poll after Brown’s repeat.
To get things going:
Tories: Amazing, Brown is a disaster.
Labourites: It’s one poll.
Lib Dems: We’re still here you know.
212. Not a penny sadly. I left NR on the shelf and didnt have the cajones to go buy A&L even though I knew it was just some blokes in suits acting like idiots.
Just failed to take my own advice.
On a completely off topic note, there are rumours that Russians working at the Bushehr Nuclear reactor facility in Iran have packed up and left for home.
Dale has now finalized his story.
228 - I’m absolutely staggered if there’s a Tory lead of 3%. It just shows how volatile things are right now, and not just because of the conferences.
The public haven’t go the measure of either the PM or the leader of the Opposition yet. The former, because he’s just taken over, the latter because he’s so vague.
An election right now isn’t good for anyone, frankly. Although I can’t help wanting there to be one just for the shits and giggles.
Seeing that one of Iain Dale’s sources (for one of the two polls) seems to be a poster on this forum, I would hazard a guess that it is pretty easy for Mr Dale to be wrong.
I’ve never heard of a “recount” on a poll before! What a joke!
If we believe (and I do) Sir Bob’s comment last week that 10% of voters decide in last 24 hours before they vote then what matters is momentum. If the story becomes sustained as Dynamic Cam versus Clunking Gordon then the momentum is with Cameron.
IF (and its still rumour) the polls have turned then Gordon isn’t a fool - he can pull out of an election right up to Tuesday night (or even a week Tuesday) and he will if its a gamble.
It’s quite simple , If Mr Dale is correct with both poll forecasts all hail to him and his sources . If he is wrong , then he is totally discredited .
As someone else said yesterday, it now seems as though Brown is facing a rather large swamp of shit.
Even if the average of the polls is level pegging, that’s very bad news for Labour.
Don’t forget that the Tories normally poll lower than thier actual vote share on polling day.
The damage caused to his reputation and standing over all of this (GE or no GE) will be huge IMO.
Sometimes, be careful what you wish for I suppose.
All he seems to have done is rally and unite the Tory party in a way they could have never done by themselves. Cameron is on a roll now.
Oh the irony of it all.
Matt.
242 - Looks like Dale is wrong. Labour has a lead.
240. Dale deserves to lose a lot of credibility for a stunt like this. He knows how big the news was, and he should eitherb burn his source (who gives him such nonsense) to get credibility back, or apologise to people foolish enough to actually trust him aas a responsible news source.
surely it would be fundamentally wrong to leak “early figures” - anyone know if the polling council has guidelines on this, cos that’s what Dale says happened?
241 - Naahh… I made a prediction that the Election would be called earlier this week. I was of course wrong. (Still sticking by the Nov 1st date though).
Having fun making a killing on Betfair though with all the speculation.
A lab 3% lead is expected and would strengthen the theory that the underlying relationship is Con 34 Lab 40 - Go for it territory.
A tory 3% lead is impressive and a clear sign that the 5-7% Labour lead has been dented. Election off.
But both at the same time..AAAAAAAARGHHH !
242. Let’s be honest: Iain Dale can be a silly arse sometimes. Sometimes his posts are great. At other times he’s like a headless chicken and if you now read his latest update it makes him look very silly (unless someone was out to make some money …). All this stuff ‘the early results were good for the Tories but then Labour firmed up’ is absolute guff. Silly boy. Detention.
Much as I would enjoy seeing Gordon Brown in deep trouble over this, the embarrassment if he didn’t call an Election would amount to a few weeks of glum faces and sulking as Dave gloated at PMQs, then something else would come along occupy our collective attention.
In any case, it’s funny seeing the Labour posters trying to “play it down” and explain it as something they’d expect, post conference bounce, not significant etc. etc. et.c.
TW*ATS!!
Face facts. We’ve done well. You’ve done badly. Your man gambled. Your man lost. The Tories have defied expectations.
Tough. Accept it.
>232
If you did any sort of risk analysis a poor turnout is a killer. Brown may b many things but he’s not the fool you suggest he is. With polls all over the place, he will not go. He has no need to.
After all, to spend £100M and exchange a comfortable majority for say 20 would be the act of an idiot.. and Gordon is no idiot..
I’m afraid the lame line from Dale that Labour’s ICM figures have firmed up in the last few hours is pathetic. Basically, as they say in the trade, he got a bum steer.
Am I the only Tory that will admit this fact: I do not want a November Election.
?
I’ve been backing the early election heavily on Betfair as a reality-hedge-type-thing but the thought of it happening really unsettles me.
In any case, it’s funny seeing the Labour posters trying to “play it down” and explain it as something they’d expect, post conference bounce, not significant etc. etc. et.c.
TW*ATS!!
Face facts. We’ve done well. You’ve done badly. Your man gambled. Your man lost. The Tories have defied expectations.
Tough. Accept it.
Dale’s credibility will take a hit. To correct your story twice shows he writes before checking.
In any case, it’s funny seeing the Labour posters trying to “play it down” and explain it as something they’d expect, post conference bounce, not significant etc. etc. et.c.
TW*TS!!
Face facts. We’ve done well. You’ve done badly. Your man gambled. Your man lost. The Tories have defied expectations.
Tough. Accept it.
Oh well , Dale strikes again.
I think private eye should do a column on him, that must be 4 or 5 bollock’s he’s dropped this year at least ?
So my “news to me” source at the “Gruntfutock” was correct !!
Oh well … and there was me complaining.
249:
In fairness to Dale he did provide a strong caveat that the information was unconfirmed and he was in the process of checking it. But I suppose the temptation to be first with an earth-shattering revelation can be too tempting to resist.
Incidentally a psephologist on the 5′o’clock news to discuss FOUR new polls tomorrow!
There has been some discussion earlier on this thread whether Denmark or Norway is the most boring place in the universe.
Norwegians go to Denmark to drink and have fun. Danes goes to Norway to look silly in our ski-slopes. You decide!
But Oslo is a very liveable city. Expensive, but Norwegians can afford it
237. Roger it’s not only one (very good) speech which has given Cameron a lot more respect. It’s also a very good Tory conference. See several of today’s newspaper leader articles. Morale in the Tory Party is much better now. I have heard reports locally (in Scotland !) that applications to join the Conservatives have been at record levels. There are now a lot more willing helpers.
If the expected poll results are confirmed and repeated over next few days then Brown’s judgement and leadership skills will be rightly questioned. We may have experienced a “tipping point” this week!
“Basically, as they say in the trade, he got a bum steer. ”
Unfortunate choice of phrase
I am also VERY disappointed with Iain Dale. He gets very emotional and excited easily and regularly posts stories without checking. Fact.
I expect he’s desperate to be the first one to break the news, so he rushes out stories willy-nilly.
The 3% lead from Yougov though, sounds plausible, so he may turn out to have been half right.
248. “A lab 3% lead is expected and would strengthen the theory that the underlying relationship is Con 34 Lab 40 - Go for it territory.”
“A 10% Tory is expected and would strengthen the theory that the underlying Labour lead is 458%”.
What utter cobblers. A 3% Labour lead is a 3% Labour lead, no more no less. The only thing it shows is that the polls are indeed incredibly volatile - Labour’s lead has gone from 11% to 7% to 3% in ten days.
For a prime minister with the majority of his term to run, to call an election in this environment would not only be cavalier and self-indulgent - it would be criminally foolish. The biggest electoral gamble a British premier has taken in modern times.
Why? What on earth is the point? He’s got three years to run: he will surely find a better time than this.
And let’s not forget, if he does go - he’s got all the papers gunning for him on the referendum.
Is Gordon Brown actually an idiot?
To be fair to Mrs Dales Dairy if someone delivers the wrong feed to him then the milk will turn sour !!
It’s happened to the best of us.
Huge changes in the polls are to be expected due to US convention style conferences. In 2000, Bush was some 15% up post convention, and ater democratic convention, in mere two weeks, Gore was in the lead.
260. No someone in his position shouldn’t post that sort of misinformation at all. He was trying to scoop but has clearly got it wrong. Bad judgement.
257. How many versions are needed Casino Royale
I’m a bit edgy now. As a pro-Labourite these days I do not want Gordon to risk it if things are narrow. That would be a disaster. So if one of these two polls does show 3% Labour lead, and the other polls don’t show something healthier i.e. 5%+ then I hope to goodness Gordon does not go to the country. To risk and lose when he has a comfortable 2 more years + would be ridiculous.
If DC and the Tories have turned an imperious looking Lab lead of ELEVEN points into a 3 point lead in just one week, then that’s pretty damned amazing and in itself would have given the Tories on this site something to get excited about.
Dale does seem to have rather spoiled the impact of that by hinting at a 3 point Tory lead - so a 3 point deficit, whilst still a staggering turnaround, is something of damp squib now.
He IS a Tory, isn’t he?
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/has+cameron+fractured+gordons+lead/879872?intcmp=news_hpage_poll
With Gordon’s Macavity like tendencies we can invert that infamous cliche and say “You can hide but you can’t run”
Jack W
It’s all about assessing your source before you run with a story. Sources close to the Guardian. What does that mean? If it isn’t someone on the political side of the paper-and frankly would they give the story to Dale-then it isn’t sensible to run with it.
Having run with a lemon he should have said ‘Sorry folks I got it wrong. I’ll be more careful next time.’
I’m now back into Spreadfair. Someone has put up £1000 as a Buy at 242 Conservative seats. Risky? Ramping? Ridiculous? This is way out of the usual league on this market.
I am hearing yg is 4% lab
I was first told that it was a 3% lab lead in a poll this evening which I assumed to be CH4, when Iain Dale’s story appeared I went back and was told oh that must be the one as it also involved a 3% lead, so a certain amount of unintended confusion as is often the case with these things but it does seem the story of a 3% lab lead in the CH4 poll is true we shall have to wait a little while longer for confirmation.
268 - I seem to remember a Lefty blogger scooping the death of Mrs T. Everyone gets it wrong, it isn’t a major crime.
Entertaining though it all is, if he does bottle it he will come under enormous pressure to make a statement ruling out an election soon, ie this and next year.
This toying with the electorate for potential personal political advantage is no way to govern a country.
Bob Worcester on PM (Radio 4) now
The big change in YouGov means nothing - I don’t trust their polls one bit. Let’s wait for some solid results before we analyse.
238. I’ve been saying this for a while. There’s a middle 20% who kind of like Brown when they see him and kind of like Cameron when they see him. It’s not because anyone’s vague, it’s because there’s no well publicised policy issue where there’s a very sharp contrast of views into two camps. I think Brown will suffer from this as a slight change of mood towards Cameron over the next few years (which will be inevitable as it happens against all governments) means a large number of people will move over, such are the numbers on balancing point.
I have to say-and I’ve said it all along-that Labour biggest and only danger is low turnout. Even Bob Worcester said the same. Therefore it’s crucial that the election looks close at least to start with so Labour voters take the trouble to turn out. I would be surprised if many are desperate for Cameron/Osborne to take over however good their speeches.
269. Quite.
268. Fair Point. My server jammed up and I clicked a few too many times!
But you Labour lads do lose a lot of credibility the way you try and dismiss *anything* that looks bad for you (even if very bad) and indulge anything midly encouraging (even if negligibly so)
And before you say; “you do it too”, if you look at my historical posts, I’m not above being frank and honest about what I feel about polls and Tory MPs.
You should try it too. Might give you more credibility
Just to confirm.. none of us actually know if any polls show a lead to anyone, right?
That said. I’d be looking carefully at which polls were saying what. For example, if You’re looking at a Poll that shows a consistent 40% Labour vote, and the Tories pushing up to 37% based on a hugely high likelihood to vote score, I’d be much more compfortable than with a 37-34 with clear direct wtiching to the tories. That’s because I think LTV would settle back down after conferenc,e but a direct switch means people have beeen persuaded, and could stay persuaded.
As adjustement for likelihood to vote is the key to interpreting polls, Dale’s information might have been right at the time he was given it. Then a newer interpretation was made, and his information became wrong.
In the end, what matters is whether Brown fancies his chances, and it is his interpretation on likelihood to vote which is the only one that counts.
Dale gets emotional and excited about all the twists and turns in polling. That’s what makes him Britain’s No 1 blogger…the skill of making all this dry and endless statistical information into a live show. Smithson sees how to make money out of it. Dale makes emotion and drama, without being a queen. It would be a dull world if we were all the same etc etc
OK, so Dale made a minor boo-boo. Calm down. This is the blogosphere. It’s instantaneous - people make mistakes and get excitable. That’s part of the charm.
Small earthquake in Chile, not many injured.
The important thing is the 3% Labour lead (if true). Better than most Tories’ expectations, I would imagine. And worse than most Labourites’, whatever they say.
This now makes it REALLY tricky for Brown. If the other polls are as tepid, he must surely retreat and take a media spanking. Better than losing his majority.
264. I’m not sure ‘willy-nilly’ is appropriate either.
268: ‘No someone in his position shouldn’t post that sort of misinformation at all.’
Come on, he’s a blogger, not the BBC World Service. The whole point of his sort of site is to share with the plebs the rumours and gossip that normally only the Westminster-Bubble Brigade are privy to. Long may he continue (even if he does drop the odd clod).
Huge sums now available to both buy and sell Tory GE seats. £700 to sell at 240 and £1000 to buy at 242
272 yes suddenly lots of cash sloshing around, not only the £1000 @ 242 but £ 700 on buying @ 240 and there is a fair amount of liquidity on the labour spread too.
Eddy M on Radio 4 said there is a rumour one poll gives the Tories a lead. Obviously been reading here or the the yoyo polls on Iain Dales!!
280. CR I am honest sometimes (!). For instance, the Iraq stunt made me slightly irritable, not so much for doing it when he did but because he had said he’d announce it in parliament first.
Test - now it’s 4%? Reliable source?
Blue Moon. If your source make a mistake then you are stuffed. Simple.
All in the trade know it, live with it and hope and pray any clanger isn’t too desperate.
As the old military intelligence officer said of sources :
“The intelligence went from ’send reinforcements we’re going to advance to send three and four pence we’re going to a dance’
Ben Brogan reports that three polls, Yougov, ICM, and Populus will show “substantial falls” in Labour’s lead. He thinks Yougov gives Labour a 4% lead.
Brogan is usually spot on, I think.
288 - this is like chinese whispers. My sources at You Gov/ICM/Mori (delete as applicable) state that the Lib Dems now have a 14% lead over Labour and the Tories.
Me think there is a lot of Labour ramping so that when the polls do come out it will make Labour look good.
Sean Fear I’d trust Brogan a lot more because he’s art of the political correspondents’ network.
On a strictly voyeuristic level, I am loving all this. You couldn’t have scripted it better than a 3-4% Labour lead.
Cause that’s right on the edge. It’s just big enough for Brown to convince himself he’ll be returned comfortably, maybe even with a mildly increased majority.
On the other hand, it’s certainly narrow enough to give the Tories hope that, over a campaign, and taking all the other factors into account (boundary changes, likelihood to vote, money spendable, the referendum and the papers) they might not just slash Brown’s majority, but claw towards a Hung Parliament.
Whatever your ideology, it’s jolly exciting. I just pity the Lib Dems, who are like the small child in his jimjams, woken in he night, who has wandered downstairs to see his parents having a toga party.
Yougov figures are
Lab 40%
Con 36%
LD 13%
228 it even got a mention on the R4 PM programme, also Bob Worcester giving sensible advice again.
2007 now 4/5 on Betfair. Back to evens soon I’m guessing.
I predict that by Christmas Labour party members will have discovered for themselves what Peter Mandelson knew all along.
280 see 291 and kindly note I posted before Brogan did.
Forget the ramping and what you’re left with are giant swings to Con.
Poor Dale has been tricked by Brownites at the Guardian into anouncing a 3 point lead for the Tories. Now it turns out that it’s nearer a 3 point lead for Labour their 8 point collapse doesn’t look quite so bad even though it’s pretty appalling for them and will kybosh an Autumn election.
It’s called spinning and Dale has been well and truly used.
291:
And Brogan is sounding increasingly confident that the election is off.
291 - If this is true then the picture that we have is that after the Labour conference the lead was 7-11 points and after the Tory conference 1-4. Mori showed that conference bounces can fade - my guess would be that the underlying position is between the two i.e. a Labour lead of 4-7. But of course an election would be a risk - the Conservatives could make more headway. But is it a greater risk than waiting?
re 230 13/8 would do me nicely and enable me to go all green
Talking of “diaries” (thank you Mr Dale!) I bet a lot of peoples’ will now be a lot clearer for October!
The YOUGOV poll is actually pretty good for Labour at 40%. I don’t think he’ll take the decision till the weekend though.
295 - You’d better hope for your own sake that your right on that call, otherwise will be swift and ruthless as always.
300. Yes, and Brogan is the most reliable blogger there is. If he says the election is off I strongly suspect it is OFF.
What a palaver! I wonder how many Tories are now kinda hoping Brown goes for it.
re 247 Peter O this one post has destroyed any credibility you or your site have. You’ve condemned yourself as a ramper.
292. mwahahahah. Yes, we at the Labour Evil Genius nerve centre thought up a crafty plan to spread rumours that the Tories were ahead, so that when it came out three hours later that we were ahead people would think it was even better… No wonder we’ve run the country when we can come up with ruses so elegant, sophisticated and utterly pointless as that.
If Pregthewr is right, that’s a “good” 4 point lead- Lab vote steady at 40% and a tory increase, presumably from LTV. V poor for LDs again, which I’m sure they’ll discount.
Whilst it may still be a little premature to conduct a great post-mortem on the whole “election - will he/won’t he” saga, it does beg one rather big question:
What the hell was Gordon playing at?
Did he WANT the Tories to become more united, focused and put themselves back in the game?
You gov changes Lab (-3), Con (+4), LD (-2)
301. “But is it a greater risk than waiting?”
Yes. Why gamble your entire career and reputation on the likelihood of a reduced majority? When you have three more years to govern? As my 18th month old daughter says: STOOOPID.
305, 308 Sorry it is off PA, not some secret source.
304. Even if you have real information, does anyone truly believe that the LDs would be on 13% in a real general election? To me, that’s where the uncertainty lies. If they are really down there, then they are finished and we’re back to a 2-horse race. But, more realistically, if they actually turn in an 18/19% performance, where are they going to take their extra 5/6% from? I ask it again. Would you risk your entire political career on these polls?
291 Sean what is fascinating about Ben’s comments is the suggestion that some inside No 10 think that coming out with a majority of 20 would be acceptable, I do wonder if any of these folk have any experience of politics in the real world. To go from having a majority of 66 with 2.5 years to go and calling an unecessary election and seeing a significant reduction in that majority as acceptable…
306 Yes, Brogan is first class.
Channel 4 are reporting that their poll result is “sensational”.
305, given what Brogan has reported, I expect it is true.
315. Would love a news organisation to report their expensively commissioned polls as “boring and uninteresting”
83/121.
I just checked… her 18 birthday is today!
307 - With respect, we made pretty accurate predictions about the results in Scotland and Wales in May. Go and look them up if you want.
I’m not interested in ramping. I took a punt on what my source said and then have worked the markets over the past 4 or so days as other speculation has sent the price up and down. Frankly, if I thought that I would have any real effect on the market I’d have put on a much larger initial bet.
313. I think 17/18% is more likely for the Lib Dems in a real election.
314 If Brown were to come back with a majority of 25, I think his authority would be hugely weakened.
314. Totally agree. What is that about? Are Labour so lacking in confidence about the next three years that they would be happy with a crippled majority, as long as they win? All for an extra 18 months? Duh?
Whatever happens hereafter, this whole exercise has been very revealing of Labour’s subconscious.
316 - that did actually make me laugh out loud. Good job.
If Labour is on 40% in this YouGov poll, and others to come, that’s a clear Labour majority. If I were Gordon I’d go for it with that poll.
Focussing on Mike’s basic question will Cameron get good media coverage? The answer is very likely Yes and he may well gain momentum. According to Channel 4’s web-site “the result is pretty sensational.”
317 I told you that on post 143!
I just can’t see 40/36 as sensational for Cameron. What am I missing?
My only complaint with Brogan is that he bought some ludicrous pre-emptive spin from some Labour source eg what a great position they would be in post a backdown to destroy Osborne’s tax proposals etc
248 Crossland i do not understand this :”A lab 3% lead is expected and would strengthen the theory that the underlying relationship is Con 34 Lab 40 “.
If that is confirmed in 90 minutes, the following is true:
Change from Lab to Con: Con +3% Lab -4% Lib Dem n/c Oth +1%
Forecast: Con 236 Lab 332 Lib Dem 43 Oth 39 (Lab maj 14)
320 It has been a clever wheeze that has been let runout of control, a few weeks of speculation to pressurise the tories is one thing creating a huge media hoo hah polls, full election mode etc and then letting it all quietly die is being too clever by half.
Not sure that a poll with Labour on 40% and Conservatives on 36% could reasonably be called “sensational”, “dramatic” perhaps… then again it’s not as though a News program would seek to ramp up its own material.
Slam. Spot on. If he continues with the same measured, easy, assured tone he adopted during his speech then the exposure he is going to get as a result of these polls can only see the Tory poll ratings improve further, in my view.
Hills again offering 11-4 against 2007 GE until 6pm this evening, I think.
324. sorry, I was out in the last couple of hourse..and I was now re-reading the thread and I didn’t reach comment 143 yet!
Before we move on, can we collectively agree to rubbish anyone who claims to have ‘early returns’ from an opinion poll? That’s the second time we’ve had this recently, and it’s nonsense - there are all kinds of reasons why part of a sample may be unrepresentative of the full sample, and no serious pollster would leak on that basis.
Casino: we’re nearly all a bit partisan, but I did say the 10-11% leads were too high and would settle. It’s probably a mug’s game to make predictions here if you’re a known supporter of one side, since if you are optimistic you’re accused of naive cheer-leading and if you’re pessimistic you’re accused of massaging expectations.
What about the substance? Assume the Labour lead is indeed in the 1-4 range and there are no Tory leads. Most of us would surely agree with the principle that lots of publicity produces a bounce that isn’t completely sustained, so that fits with the 5%-ish Labour leads that we were seeing before the conference season.
Personally I think we should go for it on that basis, but the post above that suggested this may be based too much on my local position may be right. I know Labour is keen to go in next-door Gedling too, but I’ve very little idea of the position round the country.
308: lol!
Peter O
I wonder what the underlying numbers GB vs DC show? Has there been a big turnaround? Perhaps that’s what Channel 4 are hinting at? Personally I think 40% post the Tory Conference is a good number for Labour. Let’s see what the other polls show.
327. You don’t understand it, like me, cause its total bollox.
If that is confirmed in 90 minutes, the following is true:
Change from Lab to Con: Con +3% Lab -4% Lib Dem n/c Oth +1%
Forecast: Con 236 Lab 332 Lib Dem 43 Oth 39 (Lab maj 14)
If that is confirmed in 90 minutes, the following is true:
Change from Lab to Con: Con +3% Lab -4% Lib Dem n/c Oth +1%
Forecast: Con 236 Lab 332 Lib Dem 43 Oth 39 (Lab maj 14)
40% Labour is fine and still makes a GE plausible. What will not, however, is if all the other polls come with Labour under 40% and leads nearer 2% or 3%.
As Sir Bob siad- look for the vote share-if Labour stay in the 38-40 range in all these polls the election will be on- if they fall to 34-37 then it is off. Any one poll giving them 35 or below it is off.
329 Correction, sorry - they were half an hour ago - it’s now disappeared off their screen again.
Has anyone else just had their browser hijacked by forecast.co.uk ?
Security hole somewhere, Mike?
Anyhow they predict a 1st Nov election, a Lab majority of 92, the Libdems on 20 seats, the SNP on 18, and the Greens winning Pavilion…
What tosh…
325. I don’t know the precise figures which are not available until 7pm. However a key point is that Channel 4 are comparing them with a 11% lead for Labour after their conference.
Honestly, how limp is “super, now we’ve got time to destroy Osborne’s IHT tax proposals”. Well, if you do, why not lop off the most stupid .005 of public expenditure. Anybody seen any wastage in public expenditure recently?
Nick How’s the 1997 landslide looking?
It’s going to go Evens 2007 pretty soon.
320 Yes…but, what if dave(s)’s scenario of a few days back comes true (whether or not GB was originally planning it)? That he tells us all that the election is off, and what he intends to do is legislate for fixed term parliaments to avoid damaging speculation. I can’t help but reflect on how much money time is being spent (? wasted?) because of all this. “Fun” it may be, but many people away from us nerds would prefer to get on with normal life, and have an election when it is “due”, not when the PM says he wants it!
It is worth pointing out that a lead of 3-4% is very similar to that enjoyed by Labour at the start of the 2005 campaign - indeed a MORI poll in the FT showed a 5% Tory lead at beginning of April 2005 amongst those certain to vote!
An insider’s view of the media reaction to all these events.
In the past, all the political editors and correspondents took a good Wednesday to Wednesday off after Tory conference - feet up, reintroduce self to wife, check kids still recognise you, etc. - leaving the desk to ambitious juniors. Nothing was likely to happen before PMQs at the earliest, so it was safe.
For the first time in years, the poor guys and girls will not get so much as half an hour off because of the general election rumour/threat.
If Brown calls it off now, they will not forgive him. If he goes ahead now, they will be out on their feet before polling day and won’t forgive him.
Who’s in charge of Brown’s media relations?
342 - *sigh*
No, what we’ve written is that if a General Election had been held on the 26th of September (the date of the forecast you are quoting from) then those would have been our prediction of the results. That’s entirely different from what you’re saying.
Judge us on the last elections we predicted that we have results for - Wales and Scotland. That should even the score a little.
340 Sir Bob’s record of predictions is similar to that of Mystic Mogg.
348-Justin- correct. I think that Brown will be happy with consistent 4% leads the day after the Tory conference. He still has a few days to announce his IHT proposals- and to count up non doms for his new flat payment.
About 10k suddenly available to lay on 2007 on Betfair at 1.95.
351- sean fear- I agree with you there.
Test- must be congratulated for calling the youguv poll first. Well done sir- you have gone up in my estimations (wasn’t hard mind!).
New thread - “So what is C4’s sensational poll?”
353- sorry Ian it is £123- not quite 10k
Just checked YouGov from the week before the conferences: 39/34/15. So the conference season change at what I’d think is the peak of the Tory bounce is:
Lab +1/Con +2/LD -2.
That looks likely enough - all the talk of a close race is bound to squeeze the LD national vote.
345: it’s looking possible but not probable!
I think many of us are getting carried away by precise numbers and forecasts. A week as we know is a long time in politics. We don’t yet know if there has been a tipping point this week. If there is a General Election (I still think not) will the momentum be behind
Cameron or not? will Brown/Cameron handle the European issue to good advantage?, what unexpected events will occur. While history provides some indicators we may be in unchartered waters.
340 Tyson I agree, but would also consider that following Harry’s post the other day, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect that there will be a shift of 4% from Labour to the LibDems during the campaign (due to higher Lib Dem profile, tactical voting etc). This appears to have been the historic pattern in most recent elections except for the last one.
That being the case a poll of 40% for Labour might imply a result of 36%. The number to watch for is the Tory share
Much amused by the slagging off I have got on this thread.
If you had been told that the Guardian poll showed a Tory lead of 3% would’t you have felt that was worth a punt? I then made further enquiries elsewhere and updated it to a slim Labour lead- which was bang on until it then became level.
I was told at around 4.30 that the Channel 4 poll showed a narrow 3 point lead. I was the first to release the actual figures at around 6.35.
How exactly do I have egg on my face?!