Should Kennedy take the plunge?
October 16th, 2007
Could he be the Lib Dems’ Alex Salmond?
Nominations open today for the race to succeed Ming as Lib Dem leader and will close on 31st October. (Voting closes 15th December with the winner unveiled two days later.) So far, the only news among possible runners is that Simon Hughes won’t be standing.
Much of the attention, and cash in the markets, has been focused on Nick Clegg (1.57 on Betfair) and last time’s runner-up Chris Huhne (currently trading at 4.6).
There’s one name that’s already splitting opinion however, if pb is anything to go by, and that’s Charles Kennedy. Just to quote two regular posters on the site, SBS said that he “would be extremely ill advised to run” while RodCrosby argued “there really is no alternative”.
So could Kennedy follow in the footsteps of Salmond and make a successful return to leading a party? My own view is that despite the Lib Dems’ high water mark of 62 seats in 2005, there were a couple of appearances from Kennedy (the “morning after” press conference and the Paxman interview) where he verged on the shambolic, and that with a “perfect storm” of both Labour and the Tories being unpopular, the party ought to have done even better.
But there does seem to be genuine warmth for Charlie within the party grassroots, and he certainly possesses much more of the common touch than Ming ever did. However, I think the risk is just too high, and the press would forever be trying to find evidence that the drink issue had not been conquered. With the second leadership contest in less than two years, the Lib Dems will be looking for more than just a “safe pair of hands” to take on a resurgent Conservative Party, but I remain to be convinced that Kennedy is their best hope.
For those of you who wish to invest in him on the markets, he trades this morning at 24 on Betfair, and the BBC’s “runners and riders” list is here.
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Sorry that didn’t work, more on Clegg’s ancestor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctor_Syn
Whatever anyone else might think the Lib Dem members take their party seriously. Do you think it’s credible that they’d humiliate themselves by going back to Charlie for the edification of non Lib Dems who think he’s a good laugh?
Nick Robinson says it will quickly become a two horse race and it’ll be “mighty close”. I’m surprised. If Hunhe couldn’t get close to Ming why are the party likely to choose him ahead of Clegg?
Nothing to contribute to this debate, but at least i know what Huhne and Clegg look like now
Clegg looks like a daytime TV host (yet scarily reminiscent of Alistair Cambell) and Huhne like someone’s strange uncle.
Didn’t know Ming was only 66, he looks about 75. guess that was what did for him in the end. As i’ve said before though, people vote Lib Dem becaue they are neither tory or Labour. Their policies are more or less irrelevant as they won’t win power, and by extension so is their leader, a good one might add couple of %, a bad one might lose a couple, that’s all.
“Should Kennedy take the plunge?”
Presumably into a vat of whisky ??
2 Why would the public choose Clegg when they have Cameron to vote for? It would be like travelling to Scotland to buy Japanese whisky.
It’d be a nice story, though I consider it highly unlikely - but perusing Betfair’s prices this morning at between 20 and 30, I’d rather be a backer than a layer.
It would be a big gamble for the LDs and I doubt it will happen. But he could pull it off. At the prevailing odds he looks a value bet. The public love a “Comeback Kid”. And as others have argued, the risk is not of the same order as for a leader of Labour or the Tories. The Lib Dem leader has the serious potential to be part of a hung parliament government but he or she would not be PM.
I don’t recognise star quality from any of the other contenders. Clegg is photogenic but doesn’t inspire me.
Ultimately the first question is whether Kennedy chooses to go for it? He was clearly very angry and felt betrayed when his party dumped him. He would gain great personal satisfaction if he reclaimed the leadership.
Kennedy to return now?No too soon.However if after the next election the new leader has not done well,and if he has convicingly dealt with the drink problem ,then he is young enough to make a return..
Rogerh
Clegg’s looks and manner remind me much more of early Blair than Cameron. The reason why they might choose Clegg rather than Cameron is because there is a large anti-Tory vote out there which wont disappear for a while yet. My guess is that it’s one of the biggest single groups of voters around but I might be wrong.
Good Morning All,
Well, what an eventfull evening! I am quite pleased that Ming has gone - LAbour needs a revived Lib Dem party. Sorry about Ming though - he is an honourable man and deserved better from the media and his party.
I hope Clegg takes over. He must fight the tories in those southern marginals that are so vital to the Lib Dems.
My guess is that the best value is to lay Clegg, and be prepared to back him when the odds lengthen. There will be a scare for Clegg at some point, but predicting which candidate will surge to produce that scare is a mug’s game.
10 RedFlump. Part of you post didn’t come through properly. Where you said “LAbour needs a revived Lib Dem party”, it missed off the second part of the sentence, i.e “, like it needs a hole in the head”.
Labour needs the LibDems to be kept down, so that it can gather all the anti-Tory vote to itself. It doesn’t need a competitor for votes on the centre-left, now that Conservative Party fortunes have revived somewhat.
A question - if, after the Lib Dems have installed a new leader, their poll ratings fail to improve - what then?
Well, seeing as the LDs have decided to eject gravitas after ejecting homeliness what do they want?
Clegg and Huhne both look and come across as watery upstart versions of Blairmeron and I do not think they will get much public attention in the competition for the middle ground - poll ratings will be no differenet than if Ming had stayed. They should have gone for Huhne last time imho, once Hughes guffed his way out of it. But the time was right then for such a figure - this second election in two years needs a strong character to emerge!
Kramer? Next!
Hughes would have been a strong and populist leader who would have come into the job with a fairly high (by LD standards) and not too unfavourable public image. He shouldn’t rule himself out!
Kennedy needed another couple of years before he could make a comback - which is a shame. He could have lifted LD spirits after the next Election.
No - for charisma, quirky Liberalness and the abiltiy to hit the headlines, not to mention the abiltity to suggest bold policiy initiatives stand forward Norman Baker!
13 - It is a good question. They would start to look desperate if they moved against another leader. This has got to work for them. They have got to be convinced that Ming was the problem rather than merely a problem. Changing leader might be worth only a couple of points.
10 - Labour want a strong LD to take on the Tories, thus leaving Labour in power. The LDs should target Lab/LD seats (north and Scotland) as well as Con/LD seats. All seats will be vital at the next GE (as a hung parliament looks possible), although a left-leaning LD leader will prove a better success. The right is crowded with Brown and Cameron. The LDs need to appeal to the Left who (at the moment) have no natural representation across the political spectrum.
This I believe will leave Labour with no where to run to.
10 And not say Chris Huhne fighting Labour in those new inner City targets like Swansea West eh. My Grandma what big teeth you have now…………
CK made, alone among political leaders, the correct call on Iraq; he has a way with people, and a way with words.
Only he knows whether he has the alcohol question under control; if he genuinely has, then….
Clegg looks far too similar to Cameron. If he became leader and spent the next election campaign being inoffensive, people would probably think it was Cameron (reinforcing how the Tories are no longer the nasty party) and be more likely to vote Tory as a result.
7 stjohn: He would gain great personal satisfaction if he reclaimed the leadership.
…… and a few resignations too, I would guess.
About Kennedy’s performance in the 2005 election and thereafter:
Uninformed observers seeing the LibDems getting more seats that ever before would conclude that he did great. Knowledgeable people here who see 2005 as pretty much a perfect storm for the LibDems seem to think that his performance was v. poor.
Likewise, an uninformed observer looking at the before- and after- numbers might think that Kennedy was getting 20-something %, then Ming came along and ended up scraping above 10%. QED: Everything was going great until they got rid of Charlie. On the other hand, political geeks looking at the whole picture tend to assume that the LibDems would have been squeezed whatever happened.
What do LibDem members as a whole think? Am I right in stereotypically assuming they’re mostly politics nerds like us? Because if not, Kennedy could have a very persuasive story to tell - if he chooses to tell it.
Quentin Davies has demonstrated the ability to jump on board a sinking ship when he sees one. Couldn’t he be persuaded to rat yet again?
Clegg is bound to face scrutiny on his rightward leaning views and his assumed (perhaps wrongly) inclination towards the New Tories over Brown’s Labour. Nobody had any doubt that Ming would jump into bed with Brown like a shot if asked; Huhne one imagines will be making a big play for the sandal-wearing/Guardianista crowd (which probably makes up the majority of the LD activist base).
So will LD members vote to elect a pseudo-Tory as their leader? Even if he does look the most voter-friendly? Huhne may have lost last time, but he did at least run so is the “first timer” no more.
I’d be surprised if the LDs don’t go for the leftie, particularly if all Clegg is proposing to do is ape Cameron’s approach.
20. Peter. If Kennedy does throw his hat in the ring then his electorate will be able to judge him under the intense media scrutiny afforded by a leadership election. This is the advantage of a leadership election. It gives the party the opportunity to assess the candidate’s abilities before committing to them and the individual the opportunity to demonstrate those abilities. I think every party should have one when they change their leader!
Somebody is pegging Clegg at 4/6 with almost £5K at the moment - perhaps we now have a “Cloggie Monster” as well as a ” Huhnie monster”? Is that you Richard G?
Has Lembit backed anyone yet?
19 - agreed. Made a similar point myself yesterday. Because Clegg looks and sounds like a nice young Tory chap, rather than a sandal-wearing, lentil-eating, do-gooder LibDem, less attentive voters may assume he is one. And be more inclined to vote Tory.
Clegg clearly poses the bigger danger to Tory prospects than any other challenger (bar Kennedy perhaps), but perversely could do most to promote the Tory cause among floating and not particularly interested voters.
Re 25: I am referring to the Betfair market.
25. Or possibly The Mighty Smithson?
Yes, but apart from the fact that he has already had the job once,
and is still under suspicion for a drink problem,
and suffers an image of being a bit of a lightweight ‘chat show charlie’,
and doesn’t grasp the details well,
and isn’t good at party organization and internals,
and doesn’t interview well,
and is yet another Scottish leader,
and he didn’t make the most of the LibDems golden opportunity in the 2005 election….
apart from that, why shouldn’t CK stand again?
The leadership of the LDs is a bit of a sideshow: the real question is who will replace Gordon when he is driven from office/is dragged off by the men in white coats?
No political party should look backwards - in the same way that William Hague should never become leader of the Conservative Party again, Charles Kennedy should never be made Lib Dem leader for a second time.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
BTW …. I understand David Laws will NOT be standing and will back Clegg as the Lib Dems unified candidate from the right of the party.
My sense of the above posts is that the Tories hope Clegg won’t win as they see him as a natural competitor for them, while they reckon Huhne will be a natural competitor for us. I doubt if it’ll be that clear-cut, but it’s probably roughly right. Since it looks likely that the LDs will be fighting next time to retain ground rather than gain seats (since they need to double their current poll rating just to get back to 2005), they may be better off with Clegg, to hold off the Tories in all the southern seats. There aren’t a vast number of LD seats where Labour is close behind, I think (andrea?). I still think Cable would be better than either - better-known and really quite impressive. Not charismatic, but do potential LD voters rate charisma that highly?
Kennedy would be a daring choice and certainly high profile but on the whole I think would send a message of desperation to the voters - “we’re really short of talent so we’ll bring back the guy we dumped, with luck he’s sorted out his problems”. And he’s a nice guy but he’s not really a fantastically admired folk hero - there aren’t any of those in politics right now.
This is possibly the first election that I will vote in without any idea who I will support at this stage. I’m sorry that Hughes will not be standing, to me he represents the good old fashioned Lib Dems that I joined 20 years ago.
A novel experience being an “undecided”, and I expect that there are many in the same position as me. I look forward to the campaign with interest.
It is so important to get the right person this time.
3 Congratulations on finding out what Clegg looks like - I haven’t got that far yet (along, I suspect, with 98% of the population). Ming seemed a nice chap, but obviously came to the leadership much too late and did himself no favours by continually referring to how much energy he had, which only served to remind people that he hadn’t. (Rather like GB and his “vision.”) I think a contest is, on balance, likely to boost LD fortunes although it could go the other way - people may see them as self-absorbed and incompetent for having 2 contests in 2 years. A new, younger man (or possibly woman?) in a suit may transform their fortunes but IMO it probably won’t. They will continue to be squeezed for the reasons that have been discussed here many times before.
Cable and (especially) Hughes on Newsnight looked like a couple of mafiosi who have just done away with a rival - horrible. They won’t win many votes like that. Hughes is such a repellent being….ugh!
Re 29: Scary - here is my favourite would be candidate:
http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.bbk.ac.uk/news/bbkmag/images/gold1.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.bbk.ac.uk/news/bbkmag/20/gold.html&h=345&w=350&sz=85&tbnid=5wtqfFQSdh-seM:&tbnh=118&tbnw=120&prev=/images%3Fq%3Djulia%2Bgoldsworthy%26um%3D1&start=1&sa=X&oi=images&ct=image&cd=1
All she has got to do now is call for an EU referendum and all the Lib Dem Sun readers would suppoprt her!
The problem the Liberal Democrats have is the only think riskier than having Charles Kennedy back is possibly not having him.
Still, whilst I don’t think Ming was their best choice I don’t think that is the problem, it is clearly a case of the two party squeze. I suspect it will continue under a new leader as well.
37 - she looks like Davina McCall’s sister.
As for Charles Kennedy returning, it would make sense if he hadn’t left due to alcoholicism. There will always be that question mark over him.
One thing the LDs shouldn’t do is to ape either of the two major parties
38 Benedict. You “suspect” the squeeze will continue !!
I suspect sales of deepest blue pray mats in Suusex are about to explode !!
Well I put my hands up and admit it (much to GOMs delight no doubt) I was wrong about Ming, I thought he would hang on.
As it happens I fear the Lib Dems are about mid way through a five year journey discovering for themselves ‘it’s not the leader, stupid’.
Making the change from Hague to IDS to Howard made not a sausage of permanent difference at the polls; what did make significant change was the language we used and the issues we talked about.
As I have said before the LD’s are still campaigning on the abolish poll tax/get out of iraq/change the electoral system/eat more muesli politics - that they have been ‘winning here’ with since about 1988.
But it’s time has passed, as indeed in my view has their MP’s relying on obsessing with local issues that could and should be dealt with by local politicians.
34 No but there are quite a few wher they are close behind Labour. You must always target a few for attack to allow for the fact that however hard you defend a few may well slip away. Trading those you ship for those you might gain. You simply cannot bank on perfectly defending everything
13/15 This is the 17th time this question has been posted on here in the last 5/6 days . Is this the Conservative Central Office instruction to their minions on here to keep posting this question ? What will Cameron do when a new LibDem leader does improve their poll ratings ?
On the thread topic , no in life you cannot go back , LibDems have to go forward and will with a new leader . I believe CK’s future roll may well be leader of the Scottish LibDems in Holyrood .
43 Mark S. I’m aware you favour a “I am a lady” candidate but it appears to me that Featherstone appears the only viable candidate and it’s almost certain that she’ll be a top backer of Huhne as in the last contest. What’s your take ??
I watched Newsnight last night, and I thought Cable looked very shifty. Asked whether he would stand, he gave a lame excuse of only being the job for a few hours and wasn’t thinking about the leadership contest. Yeah right!!! He wants to run, and IMO, would be the final nail in the coffin. He stumbles, blinks 500x per minute, doesn’t look at the interviewer, and sounds like a teacher trying to reprimand a student to no effect. He has authority with his Treasury brief, but so did Ming with Foreign Affairs.
This contest needs to be blown wide open with a view to jumping a generation.
9 - Roger, your argument advanced for Clegg seems to be that he is likely to attract those anti-Tories who want to vote for someone more appealling/less appalling than Brown.
A large group, you suggest.
And that hurts the Tories how, exactly? On your analysis, isn’t the party that Clegg hurts most likely to be Labour?
The Telegraph reports Labour splits and rebellions on the EU:
“Gisela Stuart, who helped draw up the defunct European constitution in 2004, condemned Mr Brown’s Europe policy as part of a broader attack on his “indecisive” leadership, among growing signs of unrest among Labour MPs…..
She dismissed Britain’s “red lines” … as “red herrings”, saying that they were also present in the earlier constitution on which Labour promised a referendum……
“If Labour can’t trust the people, why should the people trust Labour?”
The Birmingham Edgbaston MP went on: “Sticking to your guns in defence of a patently dishonest position is not leadership but the soft option and a cop-out from a specific promise made to voters.”
“The path adopted by the Government is neither honest not coherent.”
Mrs Stuart is one of a hardcore of around 40 Labour MPs who are ready to rebel against Mr Brown in the Commons to demand an EU treaty referendum.
37 “and all the Lib Dem Sun readers would suppoprt her!”
Surely, one of the smallest sub-sets in British politics? Up there with BNP Guardianistas….
Sid has just got round to putting up the LD leadership market on Hills and Huhne’s odds have been cut from 4/1 to 5/2 - so thats where the Huhnie monster has been!
Lynne featherstone offers our best chance of improving poll ratings and seats
43 Now that would be a brilliant idea for the Scots Lib Dems. I fear you will have a hard time persuading CK to give up his Westminster dream though
34: On one level I’d much rather Huhne won than Clegg, Huhne is actually pretty damn dull, I can’t imagine him pushing the Lib Dem’s onto much of a new agenda - just the normal environmental stuff - and I doubt he’ll make much of an impact at all. Clegg isn’t quiet as impressive as some make out, but he is young, personable, charismatic and should get the Lib Dems back some attention.
In the long term though - putting on my Conservative hat - what would be better? If Clegg did revive the Lib Dems it won’t necessarily hurt the Conservatives, giving people tired of Labour somewhere else to go doesn’t necessarily just split the anti-Labour vote, it might mean people who are still backing Labour now for the lack of an alternative switch to the Lib Dems. Certainly in the event of a hung Parliament Clegg seems more likely to work with the Conservatives than Huhne.
Clegg is more likely to revive the Lib Dems than Huhne is, but then, he’s also more likely to be someone we can do business with. So both have their plusses.
Cable would be Ming v.2. The only difference is that Ming was an excellent foreign affairs spokesman with all the appropriate gravitas for that role, but a hopeless leader who looked far too old and dull. Cable is an excellent treasury spokesman with all the appropriate economic experience and air of competence and knowledgable reliablity for that role, but I suspect he too would be a hopeless leader who looks far too old and dull.
Unrelated point, anyone having trouble getting UKPollingReport today? Try http://69.65.3.226
Anthony your site is working fine.
43. Steady on old chap. Seemed like a reasonable enough question to me, no need to start frothing.
It’s natural for posters on a betting site to focus on personalities, but it may also be appropriate to stand back and look at the wider implications of this third leadership election in the non-Tory parties in 18 months. (Fourth, if you include Scotland.)
It takes place against a very different background to that surrounding Kennedy’s resignation. For Labour have decided to become a party of the centre, on a definition of “centre” that many older voters will, like Polly Toynbee, interpret as “centre right” - a rejection of taxation as a means of wealth distribution, a preference for privatisation in season and out, an anxiety to push the electorate itself to the right by the promotion of sectarianism in education, and a cynical desire to promote anxiety itself through the introduction of ID cards and a more general assault on privacy in the name of security. These are the lessons that Labour has leant from economic globalisation.
They perhaps think too that social democracy was, in the end, driven not so much by its merits but by the need to make an accommodation with the generations that died in two world wars - generations that have now pretty much passed on. For the time being, Labour’s intellectual bankruptcy is fig-leaved by office. In opposition, it will tear itself to shreds.
The Lib Dem opportunity has to start from this analysis. The new leader needs to let it be known that in the event of a hung parliament there will be no deals, but that the Lib Dems will take each measure proposed by government on its merits.
He (or, I hope, she) will also have to decide whether or not to accept the substance of Labour’s analysis, agreeing that the political centre of gravity has switched to the right, and therefore the way to go is to become a third “Tory lite” party; or to recall the tradition of the Newcastle programme, the Asquith governments and Beveridge and offer a centre-left programme with a libertarian twist. It is a defining moment for the Party - is it capable of playing it long, with a strategic vision (including detaching some TU support from Labour), or do they see themselves as no more than a cheerful bunch of political bandits, strong on opportunism and tactics, but with no coherent vision of the country they want to live in?
49 Goupillon - Sid is improving. He’s just cut Clegg to 4/5.
Maybe somebody has told him about Betfair.
Clegg 5/4 with Hills. Plenty to lay at 4/6 on betfair. I’m a layer myself.
Watch the Lib-Dems now pick the candidate they think they SHOULD pick (Mr Clegg) rather than the candidate they actually WANT (Mr Huhne). The danger for them is that if Clegg then fails to deliver the “re-surrgence” that is confidently being predicted they will find themselves with a leader whose instincts are far from theirs who they can not conceivably get shot of.
56. Bah! That didn’t take long.
Swansea West is safe for Labour - the Welsh Lib Dems are a shambles.
56 Yes - I just missed that! Obviously he has a problem with numerical dyslexia.
41
Well I haven’t had much to delight me lately, so thanks for that Marcus.
Clegg will probably get it, for one simple reason, the media, he looks good on tv. Labour and the Tories will get media attention, despite their leadership. The Libdems need someone who gets them that sort of attention.
UKIP’s failure has been due almost entirely to a lack of a charismatic, populist leader, someone who is always in the news.
Surely Hughes is the only candidate who could give the Lib Dems a distinctive edge.
56 PtP. How’s the project “World Financial Domination” coming along ??
63 ken. More like over the edge !!
Hughes rightly isn’t standing and would have got monstered by the young turks if he had.
[62] Coldstone-as-was writes UKIP’s failure has been due almost entirely to a lack of a charismatic, populist leader, someone who is always in the news - which is why they should have held on to Kilroy-Silk at any price, and why they should now offer themselves, trussed hand and foot, as a support system to the ego of any celebrity who fancies themself in politics (and who is a bit of a xenophobe, obviously).
*
I can’t believe that people think that Featherstone or Goldsworthy would be more likely to get the top job than Susan Kramer. Don’t get me wrong, I think it very unlikely that she could beat the current male front-runners. But at least she has some campaigning experience, and the mayoral candidacy may mean at least somebody will recognise her from appearances on Question Time. I don’t think the other women stand a chance to be honest. If Kramer cannot do it, then it is bound to be another male leader, methinks…
*
33 - A shame, Laws is the intellectual superior of Clegg (and, well, just about everyone in fact) and he wouldn’t be mistaken for Cameron. Laws would be the better standard bearer of the orange bookers in my opinion (although I did state that he wouldn’t stand some days ago).
I just can’t see it with Featherstone, I can understand the idea of why but there are stronger, but less experienced, female candidates. In any case, isn’t she hitched to the Huhnemobile?
Marcus Wood “But it’s time has passed, as indeed in my view has their MP’s relying on obsessing with local issues that could and should be dealt with by local politicians.”
Gareth Epps “Does the party have a strategy? If so, what is it? Is it the Richmond parlour game of waiting until a suitably convenient by-election and practicing so-called ‘masterly inactivity’ the rest of the time?”
These two views echo my own comments on previous threads where I pointed out the disconnect in the LD communications in Focus leaflets and what they wanted to say about their national policies. Why be surprised if people dont know what Lib Dem national policies are if they are not on their local Focus leaflets.
Also the national operation is too focused on by elections which are a dwindling activity made harder by the improvements in Labour and the Conservatives. That comes back to the focus of Rennard.
At Cowley Street, the Lib Dems have shown a degree of self-delusion describing the loss of 200+ councillors in May as “a mixed bag”.
Well that was a bit of a surprise then! Looks like both me and Mark Senior are wrong over the Campbell departure date…
I haven’t managed to talk to anyone senior in the Lib Dems about this, but I guess the activity over the weekend was preparation for Ming’s statement yesterday. I’d also say that the decision was entirely Ming’s - I think he was fed up answering questions about his age (apparently he was asked a question about his age in every one of his 70 interviews at conference). It says a lot about current British society and values that his age was such issues - 20 years ago I can’t imagine anyone batting an eyelid about it.
In terms of runners and riders Steve Webb is definitely standing and will be a strong contender. 1997 intake (Clegg and Huhne are 2005), Christian, leftish and west country.
I’ve been assured ‘there will be a woman’ - but more a gesture than anyhting serious. I’d imagine the serious female candidates won’t be in the race this time - so no Goldsworthy or Featherstone. It is possible that Sarah Teather may be persuaded to be the ‘woman candidate’ - but whoever it is likely to be a token effort.
Laws I think will stand and those who got him at 66-1 should be very pleased as he has a wider support than is reckoned.
Kennedy won’t stand and if there is a Scottish contender - look no further than Michael Moore.
I have no idea whether Ed Davey will stand - but if he does he’ll be a strong contender.
Clegg and Huhne are by no means clear favourites - but we’ll see the runners and riders emerge in the next few days.
64 Very nicely thanks, Jack.
It’s early days yet of course. I reckon it will be three months minimum before we know just how much of Scotland we can afford to buy off Paul McCartney, but we already have enough for a couple of crofts.
67 Philip. The Lib Dems need a leader with something of a USP who will also get in the face of Labour and the Tories and make the media sit up and take note.
Featherstone has the proverbial “balls” and IMO would be something of a Mrs T character for the Lib Dems. However as I said upthread she’s unlikely to run.
Kramer makes paint drying appear like a fascinating and wild spectator sport. Not what the Lib Dems need.
68 Who is the intellectual superior of Laws and Huhne in your opinion.
IF, and it is a big if Chaz’s problems are under control then he must come back. He was the only leader on the right side of the Iraq war, and his comeback would be a story to be told.
If not- Clegg is the one the Tories fear most. He is Cameron’s identikit but in charge of a far nicer party, and a party with much greater intellectual clarity. And I doubt very much that Clegg would ingratiate most normal voters by twittering on that “mummy was a magistrate and daddy a stockbroker.” Or was it “mummy was a stockbroker and daddy a magistrate?”
Most importantly Ming has done Brown a huge favour. This is the only political story in town and Brown now has time to regroup outside the spotlights.
61 Goupillon - Do not mock Our Sid.
When Mike Smithson opens his Museum of Political Betting, adjacent to his palatial retreat in the Bahamas, there will be a statue of Sid erected outside as a mark of gratitude to Hills’ oddest odds compiler.
72 - “The Lib Dems need a leader with something of a USP”.
I would suggest that the LDs full stop need a USP.
Webb must be very popular loacally. In 1992 the Tories had an 11 thousand majority, in 1997 Webb won with a 3000 majority and by 2005 he had an 11000 majority himself with 53% of the vote. Impressive
71 PtP. Glad to hear it.
70 Dan. Laws will not run. My sauce is the Daddies of them all !!
66
Jim Davidson would fit the bill perfectly, don’t think he could be too enamoured with Cameron’s Conservatives: poor love needs a job!
For those of you familiar with the Dr Syn stories, Syn took the name Clegg, from a North American fly with a particularly nasty bite: so if there’s a change of logo!
67 I think Susan Kramer ruled herself out last time because of a family situation , I don’t know if that still applies .
72 I am pretty sure that either Featherstone or Goldsworthy will run but not sure which . I am very healthily green on both and after some frenzied activity last night have an all green book from my initial £ 10 bet .
74. Hahaha yes, Clegg the horny-handed son of the soil, eh? Banker Dad from Bucks, Westminster School, Cambridge, European Commission…a life of pure privilege.
And all that from a five second look at Wikipedia.
60. Not only is Swansea West safe for you now, I think that LDs are looking at a wipe-out in Wales at next Westminster GE.
Will almost certainly lose Ceredigion to Plaid, and Montgomeryshire to Glyn Davies. Brecon is looking very shaky (probably Conservative but could also swing back to Labour). Cardiff Central will be their last stronghold, but that could fall.
Interesting how LDs have tried to pinch the Conservatives suburban vote in Wales, while the Welsh Conservatives have tried to pinch LD’s traditional non-conformist vote.
74 Both Huhne & Clegg are Westminster School and Clegg is Cambridge, Huhne Sorbonne & Oxford. Neither are sons of toil and labour.
As for your hope that the Lib Dem leadership is a huge story - sorry its England playing rugby (and football) and the big politivcal story is Europe.
To save some of your bets you may need to know that.
Please note that Laws said on tv he was not running and Featherstone says on her blog that it is a Huhne/Clegg fight so I would rule her out.
ukpaul Laws is indeed very intelligent and comes across well on TV but he hasn’t got the personality to be Leader. Clegg is a far better choice.
Incidentally I find it ironic that the Press are talking up the ‘plotters’ line when it was the media which hounded MC throughout his period as Leader. There’s precious little evidence of a plot.
Olly Grender, former LD communications chief, pointed out that the Shadow Cabinet and LD MPs were reasonably ok about MC and would have backed him if he had chosen to stay. They were grateful to him for running the Party with a degree of organisation after the chaos under Kennedy. Ming’s problem was with the grassroots.
The truth is that he disappointed in the post. I remember during the Israeli bombing of Lebanon why he hadn’t grasped the issue with both hands. He just wasn’t very good at the job.
Cable does well at his current job but he isn’t great on TV and after the difficulties MC had about his age, I’d be amazed if the LDs go for a 60 something. Not very fair perhaps; he strikes me as much more vigorous than Ming; but there you are.
Huhne is more aggressive than Clegg; I’ve noticed him demanding civil servant heads time after time on foot and mouth. However, on tv Clegg is miles better and has a much more pleasing personality. I met him once at a buffet dinner and had a long chat with him; I was very impressed.
I’m encouraged by the amount of LD hostility to him on this site, however. Maybe the Party will be stupid enough to spurn him. From a Tory Party perspective I certainly hope so.
BREAKING NEWS
erm.. Lynne Featherstone appears to not be standing… see her own website apparently endorsing both Clegg and Huhne.
I’m no expert on the Lib Dems, but I’m surprised by people like Peter Riddell in the Times being so definate that Clegg is by far the best candidate.
I can see why strategically a centre right candidate has an appeal, but is Clegg all that good. I’ve never seen him speak or campaign or anything. He’s seemed mediocre in the couple of Tv interviews i’ve seen (but might have been better, I didn’t really pay attention).
Can an LD enlighten me how he has earnt this status as being so brilliant- what has he done that has impressed- other than being youngish, pleasant and agreeable to the media?
74 , Tyson, sweet old thing, do try and get that giant concrete block off your shoulder. It must be almost as burdensome to you as it is to the rest of us
82 Penddu. Almost as whacky a prediction as francis thinking that one day Gary Bushel will be PM !!
Keep it up, really made me laugh !!!
88 - Tyson is Rik from the Young Ones, and I claim my Cliff Richard CD
90. AnD. There is only one Rik and he’s one of PB’s finest !!
Save the “Rik One” from pale imitations !!
No. No. No.
Shame Laws won’t run…is he “unmarried”?
91 - sorry, only been here a matter of months and still don’t know everyone as of yet
Presumably, the Left of the Lib Dems will have to field a candidate - Would Evan Harris be such a candidate? His hostility to religious schools, while probably ideally suited to North Oxford, would not appeal to the wider electorate, I think.
Nick Clegg is, I think, the most dangerous of the likely candidates, from a Conservative point of view - although his views on immigration may not be welcome even to posh Southern voters, some of whom are rather less liberal on that subject than they like to pretend.
Francis, yesterday:
“387 seant. In many parts of London and the South East, non-British EU citizens often make up to 15% of the local population. Should we allow them full democratic voting rights and treat them as if they are English? Maybe a good ploy for us Eurosceptics is to spoil Europeans with democracy for them to see what accountability means - then we may see changes for the better in the EU. We need some small victories first, and this turns the federalist argument back on its head.”
Except that voting rights for EU citizens all over the EU (currently only obligatory for local and european elections) is an EU project. Personally I am strongly opposed to such measures, even if those benefiting are few, because I feel they’ll dilute the concept of citizenship of a nation even more than at present.
There isn’t really all that much that defines somebody as British (or Spanish, or Danish) any more. We hardly have any control over our country anyway but the right to vote in a general election should be the absolute last thing to go…
‘…on that subject..’
And on a few others too.
95. “Presumably, the Left of the Lib Dems will have to field a candidate”
Isn’t that Webb?
Clegg has a touch of sparkle, but IMO look too much like a derivative blair clone (via Cameron) to carve out a new role for the LDs. Again, if they’re clever they will elect a woman and a young one.
LDs need to turn their weaknesses into strengths. The LAST THING they need right now is to elect a PM in waiting. Ming proved that. They don’t have to.
They DO need to look fresh and distinctive. Goldsworthy fits the bill and could really present the LDs as the human race party.
All this talk about Clegg being favouritie is media driven personality politics. At the last LD leadership elecetion, the only candiate who appeared to offer a coherent argument for LD politics was Huhne. Huhne impressed me and many of my friends. He may come across as dull, but all that means is that he doesn’t smile as much as a Cameron or Blair. If the LDs want to get organised and go up in the polls, they must take votes from more leftie Labour voters and liberal conservatives. The LD membership will have a big say in the election, so Laws, Huhne and even Davey should not be ruled out. A new style of politics is required that embraces economic reform and environmentalist politics, i think Huhne is ahead of the game. As a labour voter, i think this approach could hurt Labour. The tories are also stealing his environment policies!
As for the Lib Dems, not much to add except that I don’t get the fascination with Clegg. Actually he does look like a Tory so maybe that’s why, but he definitely looks like he needs a good slap in the face or two.
As for Charles Kennedy, his biggest advantage is that he’s not an unknown, we know his weaknesses. Unlike all the others we know he’ll have experience, he connects with voters and most importantly that he has the guts to be a leader (the big question mark for most of the others, and important as demonstrated by GB).
Saying he can’t become leader again because “the media will crucify him” is a bit of a cop out. That would be true if the media was all powerful and could do whatever they wanted and that it was a given that they’d bash Kennedy. Too many assumptions.
Personally think that politicians, especially party leaders do have power and are not simply swept away by the currents and tides of the media. They probably will raise the drink issue but the narrative can be changed, by setting the agenda and also by the tide of events. And if the public warms to Kennedy a hostile media repeatedly doing this may lose it’s effect or even help him (anti-establishment effect).
Clegg is certainly a better media performer, but Huhne seems intelligent to me. Surely Goldsworthy is a future prospect rather than a credible candidate - isn’t she 30 ?
101. The funny thing about the ‘media’ point is that when Kennedy was last in charge, the media were remarkably uninterested in ‘crucifying’ him over his drink problem, despite the fact it was well known to them. It took his colleagues to (belatedly) blow his cover.
I doubt he’d get away with it a second time though
Webb is, without question, a very nice man. He was 20-odd years ago and doesn’t seem to have changed. But I cannot for the life of me see him as leader. Appears a Quixotic, romantic wish to be the standard bearer for the left of the party, taking over from Hughes in that sense. Clegg looks like the winner already. Do think that might (repeat, might) turn out to be good for Brown/Lab. Will possibly take some Con voters away, and also ensure the Lib Dems fight as hard in Con/Lib Dem marginals as in Lab/Lib Dem marginals. Also, still believe any Lib Dem leader would, if it came down to it, be willing to jump into bed with either main party post GE
Presentation matters for the LDs more than any party, they have to fight for all the oxygen they can get.
* Huhne comes across very dry, a kind of poor man’s Alistair Darling. * Ed Davey looks like Shrek and sounds rather dull.
I am sure this unfair, but the LDs need a charismatic communicator at the head of the team. Pure and simple. As such Goldsworthy has to be considered despite her age. Remember the LDs realistically are not electing a candidate for PM just yet.
73 - Of those who will stand can’t think of anyone who could best Laws. Cable, yes, but he won’t and shouldn’t stand.
95: Sean, I beg to differ. Clegg will have difficulty attracting the Labour tactical voters who the Lib Dems need to hold on in many of their seats. They seem to have forgotten that when the Tories were ahead pre Brown they were on circa 20%.
95 - Webb will be the candidate of the ‘left’ - or more accurately the Hughes Christian/social wing.
78 - thanks Jack - I hadn’t realised he’d ruled himself out - he’ll be one of the king makers though. (Or will he do a ‘Hacker’?!)
Things are very fluid in terms of candidates - but let’s be quite clear - anyone backing Kennedy is throwing their money away. He’s not a candidate.
I’m fascinated to know who Mike Smithson thinks is the value bet.
106. Hear hear. Has he really confirmed that he won’t stand or are these casual rumours?
The LDs will again i presume have a leadership style debate on question time. When it was conducted last time there was judged to be one winner: Huhne. It’ll be interesting to see how the contrast in styles and debating will impact on LD voters. They’ll also be a good discussion about where the LDs will be heading politically regarding economics and philosophy.
108. Dan. Can you elaborate? Why are you so sure Kennedy won’t run?
Will the leading contenders all be putting intense pressure on Lembit…
…not to come out publicly in favour of any of them?!
105 As you say presentation matters. What undermined Ming from the start in the media’s eyes and made his task more difficult was his first couple of PMQs.
Cameron managed to squash the Labour Chief Whip and get the I’m the future you are the past soundbite out in his first appearances - in fact he did so well in PMQs that Blair had to threaten him with the Big Clunking Fist.
Ming had the shaky hands and nervous approach, the questions on headmasters and pensions. He rose to the occasion later but the impression was set and exploited from then on.
Look at Clegg, Huhne and Goldsworthy and ask who will do better in the PMQs in January? Kennedy was good against Blir but who will do best against Brown?
I think Clegg would be offput to most Lib Dems. Why bring in a Cameron Mark 2 in the Lib Dems. Kennedy was a good leader and I thought they foolish to get rid of him. He is a natural left winger the Liberals need to distance themselves from both NuLab and Tory.
100 - The Clegg hype is not media led it is MP led, just the same as Ming’s election was and I hope that, this time, it is resisted.
Huhne is far too grey despite to excite possibly raising good points and besting the PM.
Clegg might benefit from people blinking between him and Cameron and not noticing I suppose.
In terms of getting noticed by anyone outside the LDs or Westminster Goldworthy would be streets ahead at PMQs. Just imagine the three leaders on the 6 O’Clock news. The LD leader would shout, we’re different before opening her mouth.
115 ctd. If they brought Kennedy back they may become electable again - I may even vote for them!
The first thing to think about actually is:
-What qualities in a leader does a Lib Dem party leader actually need?
Repeating my point from last night I think it depends on what their strategy is going to be.
It’s not a given that they need somebody experienced, or good at policy or media-friendly depending on whether they want somebody who’ll a/ unite the party (leaving the media and policy to to other frontbenchers) b/ compete for floating Middle England voters (fighting Cameron and Brown on their home turf), c/ shape policies targetting a specific subset of one of the Big Two’s base (eg left-leaning ex-Labour).
The way I see Kennedy he’ll have at least two qualities: a/ unite the activist party base, and b/ attract a broad range of people on the ‘left’ of the political spectrum. If he did abandon the old right-leaning vote (and tell those MPs affected to deal with it) and focussed on the recent gains in ex-Labour Northern cities that would be a viable strategy. What are his disadvantages?
As for Clegg (again), what is the appeal? Is it that ‘the media’ has said he is attractive or would you honestly think the same if you’d never heard of him before and just discovered him today?
swingvoter
The problem is that the right to vote extends way beyond UK citizens already.
Why do Commonwealth citizens have the right to vote in Parliamentary elections or Irish citizens?
The right to vote in local elections should be awarded to any long term resident.
The right to vote in European elections should be awarded to all EU citizens.
The right to vote in our national elections should be for UK citizens only.
I don’t hear a peep from the Tory Party on this subject which is more than a pity.
If there was to be pressure on Julia Goldsworthy to stand just because she is (in a certain light and a certain outfit) “a bit fit”, might the Labour Party also pick up on this? And elect Caroline Flint as leader, and PM?
I’d join up to the Labour Party immediately and become a fully committed socialist if she became leader. Phwoar!
As for Clegg, I see that he is a former Brussels bureaucrat and has spent more time as an MEP than in Westminster. That’ll play well in the South West, won’t it…?
121 - sorry, just spotted an error in my last post. The Labour Party doesn’t do leadership “elections”. Doh!
The Sun are already lining Julia up:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/lib_dem_conference/article63350.ece
123 - yes, I think that was indeed the “certain outfit” I had in mind. Thanks for that…
116. The media hype is derived from MPs framing their opinions about what the media wants. I agree, the hype should be resisted. I was just listening to a radio phone in, and a LD MP stated that the LDs stand for radical politics and a redistribution of wealth. Will Clegg offer a radical vision of anything? The problem with those people who are media darlings is that they will stay close to the conventional wisdom and live and die by polls. The third party needs radical thinking to offer the electorte something diffrent. The centre grounds going to get even more congested if Clegg is elected. Cameron’s already said that trying to find clear blue water between the parties could lead to drowing!
I’ve never seen Julia Goldsworthy speak. Anyone know or think that she is any good or likely to stand?
112 stjohn - or should I say St. Jude? I’ve noticed you make a habit of seeking out value by identifying almost, but definitely not entirely, lost causes - true?
120 I agree. What’s the point of having citizenship in the first place, if non-citizens have the same rights as citizens? If a foreign resident chooses to become British, then it’s quite right they should be given the vote, but not otherwise.
Votes for Commonwealth and Irish citizens are just relics of the British Empire, and a complete anachronism.
119 - re Kennedy “If he did abandon the old right-leaning vote (and tell those MPs affected to deal with it) and focussed on the recent gains in ex-Labour Northern cities that would be a viable strategy. ”
Seeing as it was he that led the party at the 2001 and 2005 elections when the gains were made in those right leaning seats that is a red herring.
Lib dems lean (about 2 to 1) to labour rather than the tories. Why on earth would electing a tory-lite leader be seen as attractive to those voters?
126. I just heard her on the radio. She spulttered, hesitated and struggled to argue that Ming wasn’t pushed. She filled me with no confidence when in a crisis.
126 http://www.juliagoldsworthy.org.uk/pages/MPTV.html
130 Well they’ve all had trouble to hold that particular line today!
All nthis talk about CK ignores the fact that the tories were in disaray. He could have kept his mouth shut and still gained more votes. That’s all changed now though.
47. I don’t think that more than 20 Labour MPs - at the most - would be prepared to defy a whip.
Polly Toynbee’s article “We can’t let the Euro-crazies drag us out of the club” is an excellent summary of the position ref the Treaty.
http://tinyurl.com/35roxm
She reminds us that Murdoch’s motivation is his fear of being constrained by the EU’s anti-monopoly measures. Like a 19th century robber baron, Murdoch seeks to use monopoly power to dominate markets and crush his print and TV competitors. But whereas Carnegie and Rockefeller sought to corner the market in steel or oil, Rupert aims, more dangerously, to dominate the market in information.
The fact that the EU, by its recent successful challenge to Microsoft, has shown that it will enforce a free market for the benefit of consumers, must make him all the more apprehensive. A free market is just what he doesn’t want.
It is no accident that Gisela Stuart’s tedious rant has pride of place in the Sun and Times.
That’s what’s known as a “free press”.
120
All British Subjects have always had the right to vote for UK Parliament - leftover from empire. Irish was because initially it was a Free State with same monarch then because of Northern Ireland where a large part of population were Irish citizens plus difficulty of identifying Irish v UK citizens in UK.
Agree - if you are registered as a long term resident should be able to vote in locals
All EU citizens have right to vote in EU elections
See 1
What the next Lib Dem leader needs is the capacity, at the first PMQs, to endure unflinchingly a full minute of bellowed and shrieked hatred, benignly approved by the front benches and the Speaker.
133 And theTelegraph.
133 Well, at least 20 MPs consider that Labour should stick to its manifesto commitment. I expect that the real problems for Labour wrt this Treaty, will really be in the Lords.
133: “it will enforce a free market for the benefit of consumers”
Bobbins. Sarkozy wanted references to competition taken out of the treaty.
http://tinyurl.com/3943vv
The free market element of the EU is the only good bit, but it keeps being watered down.
By the way, is Kennedy pished in that photo currently atop this page?
Ted
I know the current situation thanks. I also know the historical justification for non citizens having the right to vote; I just don’t agree with it.
134 But who in the ex-Empire, really regards themselves as British these days? That’s why it’s an anachronism.
Having lived through a long period of this kind of thing in the Conservative party I can say with all honesty that the worst is probably not over the for the Lib Dems.
Whoever takes over will have to cope with several factions all riven with resentment and anger, with a Parliamentary party half of whom are concerned about their jobs and futures and a dwindling activist base bewildered and confused by the behaviour of their MP’s.
But more challenging still is the need to lead the party in one direction or another. The political firmament has changed and the concept of being ‘equidistant’ from the other two parties cannot sustain in a world where the middle ground is already so closely fought.
Therein lies the problem. If the LD’s go left of Labour they risk losing their seats in the South and South West; if they go right of the Conservatives they will lose their seats and potential gains from Labour in the cities of the North.
One or the other candidates needs to come up with a viable strategy for dealing with this - but in doing so risks not being elected by whichever side loses out the most.
It’s a hell of a problem for them, and I don’t think they can fix it in two years; which is why I thought Ming would be kept in place until after the next election when to a certain degree the problem would be solved for them by the electorate.
Re 127: But Julia is going to be our new Margaret Thatcher - see:
http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=1503762007
140 Get used to it, xenophobe.
127. Peter. This is an antepost race and I’m trying to get a bit of form on the runners and riders. The main mistake to avoid is backing an an unlikely runner. The PBC panel appear to have ruled out Hughes, Laws, Featherstone and according to Dan, Kennedy. I wish Dan would elaborate on his certainty regarding Kennedy not running.
It looks like a two horse race but the outsiders to consider, if there was to be a surprise, appear to be Webb, Cable and Goldsworthy.
I’ve backed them all plus a bit on Huhne at 4/1. The only one I haven’t backed of course is the likely winner, Clegg.
100.
I realise I am diving back into all these posts but 100 strikes me as perfect Huhneite trolling. Stop me if I am wrong, and you are a regular poster, but its all a bit murky…
I feel like Huhne would be the best choice. I don’t know where people get ‘charisma’ from when they refer to Clegg - I think he’s a clunky media performer.
The Lib Dems really don’t need another ‘Cameron’. The Tories were derided in some sectors for choosing a Blair clone, if the LDs go with Clegg he’d be the clone of a Blair clone. Not good politics.
141 Sean. The Falkland Islanders !
I guess Steve Webb is intending to use the leadership campaign to make and defend some policy positions. Opposition to Student Tuition Fees could do with his support. If so, it could make room for some real debate about policy and direction for the party.
146. Check out my name in Google and you’ll see i’ve contributed to this site many many times. Is expressing an idea tantamount to ‘murky’ business? Very silly!
131. Jonathan. Thanks for the Goldsworthy link. Unfortunately I couldn’t get it to work. I will try later on another computer.
The Lib Dems were very cunning 18 months ago. They went for a retirement figure and quickly set about putting all their supporters into early retirement. Were they ever successful!
I’m not sure that any of those leaders now being offered will be able to come up with a strategy that will enable them to recover the support lost since 2005. Perhaps someone of the age of William Hague when he first spoke to the Conservative Party Conference would be a sensible choice. With a view to that person having a change of becoming PM when he reaches the age that Hague is now. The way things are at the moment, it could easily take them that long to get anywhere close.
Isn’t it the case that a third party can attract support where either of the others have clearly-defined policies which are unattractive to a large proportion of the electorate? In 2007, both Labour and the Tories are either busily re-defining themselves or making more than a passing attempt at pretending to do so, which is confusing the electorate immensely. Look at the Tories - the electorate, keeping half an ear to the ground, becomes unsure as to what they stand for and support falls. When they announce a popular policy, and people hear from Charismeron, up it goes, like a rocket.
So the task that the Lib Dems face is now particularly difficult. I would say especially so vs. the Tories, despite the policy fog, who are setting themselves up as being very strong on (1) the environment, historically a policy area which the Lib Dems have majored on, and (2) fresh-thinking, which the Lib Dems have always prided themselves on.
Of course, the fact that I lost heavily when the Lib Dems collectively voted for early retirement has nothing to do with my scathing analysis…
Colin W
A first! A one word insult from you. I’ll treasure it.
153 From a Conservative point of view, he’d make an ideal Lib Dem leader.
All those saying Charles K can’t stand because you mustn’t go back to the fizzled-out political firework, “because leaders can’t return to their old jobs it’s always a disaster” etc etc…..
are notably forgetting Alex Salmond! He was leader of the SNP, then he stepped down, then he returned - and swept them to power. Another charming and quick-witted Scot, too.
CK should think on it. But he would need to find some definitive answer to the Booze Thing.
As for Polly Toynbee’s “essay” in the Guardian. One of the most deceitful articles she has ever penned (which is saying something); a series of canards, straw men, non sequiturs and downright whoppers, dressed up as serious debate, and all of this in a column complaining about media duplicity on the EU.
She should be ashamed. There are good arguments for the EU; there are a couple of OK arguments not to have a referendum on the Constitution.
But she ignores them, and instead resorts to cant and mendacity which makes the Sun look responsible. Tsk.
134 EU citizens can also vote in local (municipal) and regional elections too, but not national elections. Is the EU trying to break up the nation state?
Bad news for Clegg. I’ve just put £200 on him and that’s usually the kiss of death. I backed him last time and he didn’t even stand.
JackW has to be the most reliable tipster on this kind of thing. Is 5/4 good value?
146 Have a look back at Feb/March 2006 and check posts by the likes of Peter Pigeon and others. There were stacks of “Ming’s a thoughtful chap (and his wife is awfully nice too) so let’s vote for him” posts. 100 is nothing new. Regrettably.
145 - Kennedy cannot run because he can’t get 7 MPs to nominate him.
I’ve just found out some more info. It is now unlikely a woman will enter the fray. The Lib Dem female MPs are clearly too sensible to indulge in a Ballardesque token effort. I’m sure Goldsworthy and Featherstone are keeping their powder dry. Teather has always said she never wanted to run for leader and she clearly has resisted the calls for ‘a woman to run’.
Declared runners - Clegg, Huhne and Webb. Cable is considering his options, but is being strongly advised not to run (for obvious reasons). There is still room potentially for one more candidate, but my money at the moment is on a three horse race.
150. I sincerly apologise. My mistake.
Although if I was a troll i would say exactly what you did. But then again I am supporting Richard Younger-Ross for Leader. The people’s choice, no doubt you will all agree…
Roger where did you get 5/4 - very good value.
No - for charisma, quirky Liberalness and the abiltiy to hit the headlines, not to mention the abiltity to suggest bold policiy initiatives stand forward Norman Baker!
for a publicity-seeking, flakey, half-baked, lazy conspiracy theorist stand forward Norman Baker
157 - yes - he should be odds on.
158.
See 160 - my own campaign to troll for “The RYR” is underway.
145 stjude - Yep, I’ve seen you do this before and find remarkable value - 2010 GE and your Arc de Triomphe pick being two recent examples.
156 continued. If EU citizens can vote in local and regional elections surely it would cheaper and easier for each member state to include them their national elections too? The admin involved in taking them off the national election registers must be time consuming. Since we signed the Masstrict Treaty, we have agreed to the political integration of EU citizens in UK democracy so each member state should simply let citizens of other member states vote in their national elections too. The road to an EU superstate is sadly one way and we are going down that way. Please for goodness sake give us more democracy in Europe and that will soften the blow a bit.
158. What’s the problem with stating an opinion? I’m not an LD supporter or plan to vote LD. Do you have the same opinion for all Clegg supporters? Or is that you’re not agreed with? Very strange!! I remebered the last election and want to share my observations. The Tories are not the same as the LDs, so i guess if your comparing them, you’re a little confused.
francis.
I’m all for being generous with the right to vote in local elections. It’s a good idea that consumers of local services should have a say in who runs them.
Personally I think the right to vote for Westminster is different. It should be a privilege, if you like, for UK citizens. I wouldn’t expect to vote for the Dail if I lived in Ireland ( I believe I could actually!), nor vote for an Indian, Pakistani or for that matter Australian or Canadian MP.
“The Sun are already lining Julia up:”
‘Top Lib Dem totty’ doesn’t scan.
“It’s a good idea that consumers of local services should have a say in who runs them. ”
As should those who actually pay for local services, so I’d reinstate the business vote. Harold Wilson abolished it, and Ted Heath missed the opportunity to reinstate it.
161. Sorry 4/5!
160 RYY is a great guy. I had a drink in Teignmouth once, as i live in Devon. He just popped in, drank booze and chatted in the local pub, leaving a little worst for wear. That’s the first and last time i’ve actually ever seen him. Hope he got home ok as i’ve not seen him in the media much (i saw him over two years ago).
157 Roger. 5/4 is very good value in the present market. Clegg is as low as 1/2 with many bookmakers.
Webb is excellent value at 16/1 with bluesquare. IMO anything around 12/1 plus represents good prospects fro trading.
Roger - you are Sid and I claim my 05p
Goupillon.
Sid??
136. Agreed it’s the Telegraph too, but Murdoch leads pack.
138. Good point. But the free market element of the EU is what was emphasized explicitly in the superseded Constitution and it’s been retained for the most part in the Treaty. That’s why a) Labour’s old Left hate it and b) it’s strange that so many Tories oppose it.
155. You haven’t addressed my argument, which is about Murdoch’s self-interest. But well done for avoiding ad hom comments – good heavens, you really have turned over a new leaf.
Roger - see 49,56,61 and 76!
It will be a three horse race; John Hemming is trying to enter, but will not get the 7 signatures. How must that feel, knowing your colleagues have such little confidence in your. Shame really, he’s quite a nioe bloke and a good campaigner, but… So it’s Steve Webb then I guess!
159. Dan. Thanks for that. if you are right then I would price it up as Clegg 4/5, Huhne 2/1, Webb 7/1 and 16/1 any other.
172. JackW. I’ve followed you on that one.
175. Not sure about turning over a new leaf. I think anyone who wants to sign this Treaty without giving the British people a say is a Traitor. Sorry if this offends but it is what I believe. I can’t lie.
I didn’t address your argument because it is tedious and irrelevant. Yes Murdoch MAY be operating partly out of self interest, in his euroscepticism. However I see no proof of this. But in the end who cares anyway?
The European Union has gone from a loose association of trading states pooling some economic sovereignty, to a quasi-federation with its own flag, anthem, government, parliament, civil service, foreign policy, aid budget, agricultural policy, fishery policy, army corps, peace missions, space agency, supreme court, legal system, police force… with this new Treaty it will get a foreign minister, a diplomatic corps, 60 new powers, blah blah blah.
This Treaty even gives the EU power over sport. I mean, what the F has the EU got to do with British sport?
At some point, someone has to stand up to the undemocratic monster that is the EU, until they do it will continue to devour national sovereignty like a pig eating its own farrow. Only the UK can do this. The French and the Dutch people said no but they were sinply ignored. A big British No could not be ignored, because our governments will be unable to ride roughshod over it.
If this No doesn’t happen now, the Tories will do it soon. And the later we leave it the more destructive the encounter will be.
I note that the commentariat is now united, almost to a man, in demanding a referendum. Even the lefties and previously europhile want one. Gideon Rachman gets it about right in the FT, of all places:
http://tinyurl.com/23bnxa
The big question about Kennedy is whether he is sober. If he is and they can trust him to remain so (tricky one), he is by far the best option they have.
He makes the Party interesting. He may not have got a huge rise in seats at the last election, but he made the Liberals competitive in areas where they weren’t before. This sort of thing is too often overlooked by short-term thinkers who reckon that all that matters is the number of seats you win - it isn’t. If not Kennedy, I would go with David Laws. He seems a bit arrogant and aloof, but he seems credible and with choppy waters ahead - national security/the economy - it may make him the next best bet.
Recalling the last Lib Dem election and the betting patterns highlighted in Mike’s book, I would expect Huhne to shorten from his current Betfair price and conversely Clegg to drift.
167. You raise many valid points, but there are pratical issues. We certanly need to reassess who should and should not be able to vote in UK elections. The problem is many people from the Commonwealth countries want to vote in the UK Parliamentary elections, but they do not want UK citizens exercising their democratic rights in some Commonwealth countries, so this needs addressing, but of course the PC race relations industry won’t have it so I think its best to simply let all EU, Commonwealth and Irish citizens full voting rights. No one can get upset with this proposal can they? If Irish Republic citizens and Cypriots (both in EU) can vote in UK General Elections why cant the Continentals. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander!
182 Restricting the Parliamentary vote to UK citizens would be an easy piece of legislation to enact. Any Commonwealth citizens who were keen to retain the right to vote in such elections could apply for naturalisation.
179. seant I’ve found many Continentals living here agree with you, more Eurosceptic than you could imagine. If they are given the right to vote in a referendum, the ‘No’ vote could approach the North East referendum ‘No’ of 78%!!!! Let use Continentals against the EU superstate and let them have full voting rights!
On the tangent about the right to vote in British elections, a little tangent of my own (I’ve posted about this before, but it was a while ago…):
People seem to be assuming that all British citizens can vote in British elections, then drawing the sensible related conclusion that non-British citizens shouldn’t be able to vote in British elections. But the premise is wrong - Britain currently disenfranchies you when you’ve lived outside Britain for 15 consecutive years. So I soon won’t be able to vote in Britain, but neither will my Japanese friend from western Tokyo, who will have lived in Britain for the same amount of time that I haven’t.
There are two good ways to straighten out this anomaly (call it the West Tokyo Question?) - either say it’s where you live that matters, so anyone who’s lived in Britain over 15 years can vote in Britain regardless of nationality (EU or not), or say it’s citizenship that matters, so any British citizen can vote in British elections for life.
Personally I think it makes more sense to vote in the country where you live, work and pay taxes, rather than the one you deliberately left - in which case Britain should extend voting rights to all long-term-resident foreigners. But I can see sense in the opposite point of view as well. Either way would be fine.
In any case since people seem to get quite worked up about constitutionaly anomalies like the WLQ, I think they should get even more worked up about the WTQ, since it’s disfranchises people completely. And as we get more mobile, more and more people will be disfranchised.
Off topic, Dawn Primarola on BBC news 24 talking about “heavy drinkers”.
Seeing her is enough to drive you to drink.
186 - Classy.
Fancy a triple this week? England to win the footie on Wednesday and rugger on saturday and Lewis Hamilton to win on Sunday. 8/1 apparently. Doesn’t seem very generous to me but there’ll be no xmas bonuses at the bookies if it comes off.
On Edmund’s point I’d reply with two of mine.
If your Japanese friend lives for more than ?7 years in the UK he/she can apply for UK citizenship. Assuming he/she passed the ‘fit and proper person’ test there should be no problem.
As far as you yourself are concerned I can see a case for UK citizens who keep theit citizenship abroad retaining a lifetime right to vote.
185. Good idea. All it takes is for half a million Brits to move to Ireland, then vote No in their EU Constitution referendum, and the damn thing is scuttled once and for all.
Splendid notion.
The Cloggie Monster’s £5K 1.67 peg now seems to have been used up on Betfair and perhaps now we shall see a truer indication on how the market is inclined at present?
189 - Like the EU would listen to a no vote from Ireland! I love your optimism. (Semi-serious point - UK citizens can vote in Dáil elections but not referendums or Presidential elections.)
190. It was odd wasn’t it Goupillon when Hills had 4/5 available throughout the morning? Now Clegg 8/13 with Hills and 1.7 to back and 1.8 to lay on Betfair.
175. Captain you do sound awfully like Denis McShane who was making precisely that point about Murdoch on the BBC’s the Long View on the wireless this morning. Are you friends?
What both he and you fail to grasp is that it actually makes business sense for newspapers to be strongly Euro-sceptic because (shock horror) that is what their readers are.
McShane was honest enough to admit that the BIG mistake was to commit to a referendum in the first place as it prevents you arguing against one on the principle that Parliament must decide these issues. You are committed to giving the people a vote on this and no amount of twisting will get you off this particular hook.
Another thing about voting is that even if you are a British citizen I believe you need to have lived in Britain for the past four consecutive years before you get the right to vote in a general. I know because that I was disenfranchised for the first election I could have participated in - because I’d never been on the register before then.
However I was able to vote in locals and europeans (possibly even via ‘European citizenship’). So I am actually something of an expert on how to be serially disenfranchised, lol
192. Yes - better than having your cash only earning interest in a Northern Rock deposit account.
190. It was odd wasn’t it Goupillon when Hills had 4/5 available throughout the morning? Now Clegg 8/13 with Hills and 1.7 to back and 1.8 to lay on Betfair.
by stjohn October 16th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
Its hard to get more than a grand on with Hills as a regular punter unless you have a holdall of cash and a scooter, so the lump backing Clegg may have just been a big punter vs a blocker. Obv the block got laid off by the arbers arbing the hill’s price…
Re Lib Dem betting odds - I wouldn’t be too sure about Huhne being second favourite. Webb may end up getting the highest number of MP nominations (the Beveridge Group) and Huhne third highest.
Last time round Huhne benefitted from being the activists ’stop Ming’ candidate - as Simon Hughes had turned off many with his performance as party president. I suspect that section won’t back him this time.
Webb’s clearly the dark horse and there will be value in backing him as his odds will almost certainly shorten as the contest progresses.
A ray of hope for a successful resolution of the Middle East Peace process? Don Macintyre is a very good, careful journalist. Could Tony Blair be next year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner?!
I know, I know. I need to take a cold shower. Can peace really be crafted whilst shutting out Hamas? It’s difficult to imagine.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article3063823.ece
IA @ [55] I think that this is the most interesting post today!
I think that you are right about the fundamental weakness of the Labour position- and the loss of power could well prove to be fatal. I don’t think, though that being “Labour lite” or even “Libertarian Labour” actually gives sufficient traction for the Lib Dems- and would be intellectually dishonest anyway. I think the key issue will be breaking out of the left wing policy boxes: the fact is that the role of the state has changed, and is changing further. Going in with the view that the state can be more than an enabler has not worked historically, and I don’t think that going back to the models you cite will actually advance the agenda of social change successfully. The debate will doubtless rage, but I think that social changes that are the goal of the so-called left wing agenda can not be acheived by using left wing, staist policies.
Liberalism is a far more individualistic ideology than the collective ideologies of Social Democracy (as practiced by Labour) in any event, and neither Social Democracy nor Socialism have delivered the outcomes that they hoped for.
It is not easy to communicate the significance and value of Liberalism, particularly to a political and media circus that usually prefers bear baiting to reasoned argument. However that is the challenge that the new leader will have to rise to.
No. Kennedy should not take the plunge. He underperformed in 2005 and isn’t half as good as a lot of people think he is.
A suitably Ciceronian post. Funnily enough I’ve always thought Labour could do more to emphasize the role of Government, albeit with a limited role.
What happens whenever there’s a crisis? People say what’s the Government done, going to do, about it? Examples flooding, foot and mouth (no sign of farmers railing at Government intervention). Even when it comes to large scale accidents people immediately start talking about the need for more effective regulation.
Of course the intrusiveness and cost of bloated Government are good arguments on the other side. But there’s a debate to be had.
And with globalisation comes insecurity. The protective role of the State is questionable here but look at democratic Presidential candidates rushing to embrace it.
The Right don’t have all the electorally popular tunes.
195. If EU citizens can vote in local, regional and European Parliamentary elections, surely the national elections become regional elections once treaty is ratified? They can vote in Scottish/Welsh and NI Parliament elections so surely they must be allowed to vote in Westminster elections too.
Re 199, Blue Moon, we have been here before with American Presidents telling the Israelis to do the right thing. It has not worked yet. They still build settlements everywhere.
Peter the Punter, did you get my email?
203 ctd Isn’t Westminster a regional Parliament since Maastrict was igned 15 years ago?
179. On dear, then that must make me a Traitor, with a capital T.
No, Murdoch isn’t operating partly out of self-interest, he’s operating wholly out of self-interest. If he’s acting out of patriotism, why doesn’t he become a British citizen? It’s highly relevant to the argument, because his newspapers consist of mainly anti-EU propaganda which have helped to condition public opinion.
If Britain is to pursue its interests effectively on energy security, climate change, trade reform, anti-proliferation, mid-east peace etc then it needs to do so within Europe. Some of the commentariat may support a referendum but the foreign policy establishment and experts like the Centre for European Reform certainly don’t. Anyway, isn’t Polly part of the commentariat?
194. I briefly met Denis MacShane some years ago but haven’t communicated with him since. I agree, it was a big mistake to commit to a referendum in the first place. But as GB as has endlessly explained, the Treaty is substantially different so for this reason a referendum isn’t required anyway.
16/1 on Steve Webb has proved irresistable, especially as I intend to campaign for him!
206 I just don’t know what the government is frightened to give us a referendum. We may vote ‘Yes’ and I would accept that, the problem is denying us the opportunity to vote.
I know Nick Clegg a little. He has one thing that all politcians need now which is charisma. Frankly that was where Chrlie was good (charimsatic but any ideas on policies - forget it). People like Charlie and I think they will like Nick Clegg who also has the advantage that he is very bright. As to the nuances of slightly more left or right then forget it - really those nuances are lost on people.
204 Yes, and I’ve replied, Benedict.
You can still get 10.5 on Betfair for Steve Webb. His price is bound to shorten as the field narrows to three or four.
50 on Ed Davey is also good value too…
159.”145 - Kennedy cannot run because he can’t get 7 MPs to nominate him.” That is interesting, I was listening to a couple of Libdems MP’s being interviewed last night, not happy about what happened to Ming, but also both mentioning the possibility of a Kennedy return?
But you reckon he can’t get 7 MP’s to nominate him?
Kennedy has definitely been looking slimmer, healthier and happier these days. He has been doing the rounds of the studio sofa’s recently with quite a relaxed confidence.
167. Calm down mate.
Lets face it, it was a perfectly pitched comment for a troll. And to show honesty, for the record I will state my own preference: David Laws. Shame he isnt standing, he is ace. Same with Tim Farron, who is far too inexperienced but will be very very strong next time round.
Also, I can happily add I took a big slice of Webb at 66-1 on WillHills (thanks Sid), so I can trade that off very nicely. However, I noted at the time I wasnt the only one to get some of this action - the odds fell to 33-1 overnight and my investment alone wasnt enough to alert WillHill’s radar.
206. lol. OhmyGod. The Centre for European Reform doesn’t want a referendum???
When was this news released? You’re kidding me, right? Next you’ll be telling me, on the whole, the European Commission prefers a parliamentary ratification than the use of plebiscites. Incroyable.
To go through your ridiculous points:
“Why isn’t Murdoch a British citizen?” Who cares. Irrelevant. Europhiles can’t accept this simple fact: people are eurosceptic because that’s what the people believe, not because they are lied to by their papers. The French and Dutch voted No, and they don’t have a Daily Mail or a Sun “telling” them what to do. Que pasa?
Next.
“If Britain is to pursue its interests effectively blah blah…”
Sure we can do this in Europe and through Europe. Good. But why does Europe have to have an army? And a police force? And a legal system? And a sports policy? And a say in how loud my ipod can go? Why does it interfere and meddle in every tiny nook and cranny of national life?
Why is its government unelected? Why are its laws impossible to repeal? Why does it need two parliaments? Why is it so corrupt its accounts are never signed off? Why does it ignore referendum results? Why, in short, is it such a pile of crap?
The only people who don’t want a referendum are you, Polly, David Miliband, and Gordon Brown. You are the last four left. A sad and dwindling bunch of oddballs. With a capital O.
Blue Square have now cut Webb to 10/1.
Peter the P
Any thoughts on the triple I mentioned above at post 189? The odds seem very ungenerous, I would have thought.
200. Absolutely spot on.
197. Observer. Yes, I wondered if it might be due to that after I had posted. Mind you he is drifting a bit on Betfair.
198. Dan. You are quite bullish about Webb, also highlighted here by JackW. I’ve taken the hint and he is clear best in my book. What odds would you rate him in betting terms? 3/1? 4/1? Less?
206
I’m afraid the entire Referendum argument suggests to me that Government is becoming less and less democratic..
If they really believed in democarcy, then we, the voters, would have a vote on policing, the NHS trusts, etc.. but they are run largely by (centrally) appointed quangoes.
“but the foreign policy establishment and experts like the Centre for European Reform certainly don’t (agree on a Referendum)”
So what? They don’t vote except as individuals
It’s nice to know that Deniis McShane does not want a Referendum. Who’s he?
Your staements are full of justification for an anti democratic stance…
As for Rupert Murdoch: I detest him. But if you are saying the UK Competition authorities are not doing a good job - and on the ITV stake they clealry are not - whose fault is that? It’s the Government’s. If what he does is legal, good luck to him.
So your arguments basically are: you and McShane don’t want a Referendum and the Government’s competition policy is useless.
What’s new?
214 seanT. Utter balls with a capital B !!
David Laws is the one I would have feared as a Tory, but not Clegg.
Nick Cohen posted this comment recently on the previous thread which might of interest.
“My colleagues in the commentariat love Nick Clegg. They would marry him if they could. I exaggerate, but only slightly. He’s what they expect a modern media-friendly party leader to be. Expect pro-Cleggery to dominate the punditry.
by Nick Cohen October 16th, 2007 at 12:41 pm”
212 - given that only two MPs - Opik and Oaten - were prepared to see Kennedy remain in office with 59 saying he should go I can’t imagine many have changed their views.
18 months is nowhere near long enough for him to convince anyone he is officially sober and from what I’ve heard it’s nothing like 18 months that he has been on the waggon.
BTW …. Luntz on 5Live shortly.
218 - Webb is around a 4-1 shot - I can’t see him winning, but the field is not going to be huge (I suspect 4 at most) so anything in double figures is worth piling on.
Re 210, Peter, many thanks!
Re 218, StJohn, “198. Dan. You are quite bullish about Webb, also highlighted here by JackW. I’ve taken the hint and he is clear best in my book. What odds would you rate him in betting terms? 3/1? 4/1? Less?”
I got in early so have laid back a bit already and am laying at 3’s at the mo. His market is volatile.
ChrisD
I see your quote but why is it a reason for not supporting Clegg? If he’s popular with the media it’s an advantage, I would have thought. Of course if he performs poorly they may fall out of ‘love’ with him but at least he starts with an excellent media profile.
220. Now Jack that’s not very nice. You’ll get the pb.com Thought Police rapping on your door.
We are all on best behaviour. Well, I am. Sort of.
I couldn’t think who Steve Webb was so I went and had a look on his website.
Oh pleeeease let it be Steve Webb who wins.
Re 228, Marcus, Perhaps we should start a Tories for Steve Webb campaign? Or do you think they would smell a rat? Mind you Labour didn’t, they still picked Brown!
Very briefly, because I must do some work now, Europe doesn’t have an army but more military cooperation would be in our common interest, for instance we could have intervened more effectively in the former Yugoslavia rather than relying so heavily on the Americans. Europe doesn’t have a police force but the European Arrest Warrant has helped to catch terrorists. “How loud my Ipod can go” - standardising products - sounds trivial doesn’t it. But consider how successful the GSM standard has been for mobile phones in Europe. Haven’t you been to the USA and wished your phone would work there?
Democracy – the European Parliament will be strengthened by the treaty. Both Clegg and Huhne, the subject of this thread, are former MEPs and they at least would appreciate this point.
229 His weblog is fabulous:
http://www.webbsteve.blogspot.com/
I counted at least four exclamation marks on October 9th alone! He is so exiting! So enthusiastic!
Which one is he - Smashey or Nicey?
231 - “I counted at least four exclamation marks on October 9th alone!”
So he can count on Rik’s support? (!!!!!!!)
Chris Rennard the LDs C.E. on WATO. “..if there had been a general election now we would have done very well..”
:-) 
:-)
WTF. That sums up how the Cowley Street organisation is in denial about their situation.
The Lib Dems need to get a Leader prepared to face facts and admit that they are in the smelly stuff.
That is what Cameron did.
227 seanT. Yuck !! Your so unattractive when you’re reasonable !!
Well, were I Kennedy and my party had treated me so appallingly, the hell would I go for it.
231: Steve Webb MP: “I attended the local comprehensive school until I was 18 before going on to Hertford College, Oxford to study Philosophy, Politics & Economics. I dropped politics after a year, because I wasn’t very good at it”
Well he’s honest…
What an odd state of affairs it would be if the 3 main parties were led by a Dave, a Gordon and a Steve.
HF
Yes and if Ming had had the power to call a GE Rennard would have advised him not to so that Ming would have more time to set out his vision. Shame that.
149. Sounds a bit like the Jon Cruddas deputy campaign in that respect - thoughtful, pretty exciting for members, policy focused etc. Webb can do well, but can he win?
Also, will Nick Clegg definately, definately run? He’s only been in parliament two and half years and ideally may have wanted to wait a bit longer. I know it’s a bit if, but with no Clegg would you definately see Huhne win, or would it help Webb or Susan Kramer etc>
226.Sorry Bluemoon, my comment was separate to that quote, I just posted it because it might have been of use to the discussion and the betting posters amongst us.
Re 231, Marcus, and 232 Neil,
Webb. Leftie Liberal, Jimmie Hill chin.
Where have we seen that before?
http://www.marcuswood.org/twins.jpg
238. Wait too long and you turn into Matthew Taylor.
**** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD
“Why Mike Smithson Isn’t Normal Presently”
Kennedy? Again? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!! No no no no no no no….