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Tories take 8% lead with ComRes

October 29th, 2007

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    ..and a boost for the Lib Dems

According to Ben Brogan of the Daily Mail tomorrow’s ComRes poll in the Independent will give the Tories an 8% lead.

The shares, with changes on last month, are reported to be CON 41% (+7): LAB 33% (-3): LD 16% (nc)

ComRes operates like Populus and ICM and weights by both past vote and certainty to vote. Its past vote formula has been less favourable to Labour than the other two.

These figures will come as a mighty relief to the Lib Dems – especially as the first surveys after the dispatch of Ming still had them at 11%.

    The real significance in the main party battle is even with the Lib Dem share holding up it is Labour that is taking the hit.

On the spread markets I’ve just sold Labour at £40 a seat at 296 seats and have bought the Tories at £25 a seat at 273.4 seats.

Mike Smithson






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