More poll gloom for Labour and Brown
November 17th, 2007
YouGov’s Tory lead moves from three to six per cent
The second national voting intention survey since the Queen’s Speech has shown another biggish drop in the Labour share. These are the figures with comparisons on the last surveys from the pollster more than three weeks ago - CON 41% (nc): LAB 35% (-3): LD 13% (+2).
This latest poll, for tomorrow’s Sunday Times means that Gordon Brown’s Labour has moved from an 11% margin to a 6% deficit in just seven weeks - a massive seventeen percent turnaround.
The last time Labour was this low with the internet pollster was before Gordon became PM. Interestingly the boost in the Lib Dem share from the awful 11% of October seems to have been at the expense of Labour - not the Tories.
Putting these numbers into the Anthony Wells calculator we get a projected house of commons that looks like this - CON 307: LAB 294: LD 21. The Martin Baxter calculator produces CON 311: LAB 296: LD 14
The poll also shows a dramatic change in Brown’s personal approval ratings from a net 48% in the summer to minus 10% in this latest survey.
Coming on top of last week’s ICM poll that had the Tories on 43% and eight points ahead this could lead to changes on the general election betting markets. The Tories are already favourites to get most seats and this might now be reflected on the spread markets where, currently, the spreads from all the main firms on how many seats the parties will get still have Labour ahead.
Latest commons seat spread prices:-
Spreadfair CON 282-284.7 seats: LAB 285-287.9: LD 48.5-51.5
IGIndex CON 278-284 seats: LAB 283-289: LD 47-50
Mike Smithson
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Yeah baby! We got the big mo!
No surprise. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Brown is toast. Labour’s best bet is to oust him and install someone with a bit of gravitas. Straw or Clarke, perhaps?
Otherwise we’re looking at a landslide in 18 months.
Gordon’s private pollster: Deborah Mattinson
Cam’s private pollster: Ave It ‘07
When are Labour going to realise they’ve elected a electoral liability?
4.
4. (Sorry about the glitch!) Who elected him?
2-It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Brown is toast. Labour’s best bet is to oust him and install someone with a bit of gravitas. ”
I don’t think they have the stomach to do it. And I don’t know if Brown is that toast…
6. The voters of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.
More importantly we need a nationwide campaign to keep the bottler away from Englands game against croatia. We cannot have our national teams chances scuppered by the jinx that is Brown. The News Of The World should headline tomorrow with “Stay Away Gordo”
I don’t think Brown is dead in the water. He’s not, in the long run, lifted Labour out of their mid-term rut; but it is a mid-term rut, not an unrecoverable slide. They’re not bound to get a majority (indeed, I think a Labour majority of any size is highly unlikely), but a recovery leading to a position as largest party is still within Brown’s grasp. His task is to prepare the way for an easy Lab-LD rapprochment after the next GE.
9 Can you imagine Gordo watching it in a pub.. What sort of conversation would he have… Answers on a fiver to the usual address……
Can i just take a moment to say congratulations to David Cameron. it’s almost unbelievable seeing what he’s done for my party since he came to power.
David: bloody well done.
7 Agreed - its over 2 years until Brown has to go to the country - so he’s not toast. This is as John Reid said at speccie awards the normal politics returned (nice disguised dig at Gordon not being Blair, Thatcher or even Wilson - so that leaves him on par wth Callaghan, Heath and Major). Mid term government blues,
However the last couple of months have shown his weaknesses - and they are the ones that the Blairites warned us of. Added to that is the surprising lack of talent on the Government front bench - Milibands haven’t risen to the occasion, Darling appears a doormat, Balls is doing what it says on the tin. Jaqui Smith (if the Home Office doesn’t destroy her) might get better, Denham looks OK. I don’t get why people think Straw adds any value - he’s a Vicar of Bray type.
The big mo’ involves increasing your vote, test, not standing still
But obviously a poor poll for Labour.
Will their be a COBRA meeting about Jock football in the morning?
I’m a Cleggaroonie…….
Gordon is really not looking competent at the moment. Perhaps it’s early day nerves perhaps not. What I’m finding difficult is believing Labour are still a party of the left and the underdog and without that they are nothing.
Certain things have given me a good feeling about a Clegg led Lib Dem party-the Guardian leader today being a case in point. I particularly like his views on Europe and asylum seekers and detention without trial. And frankly all are areas that Labour are too cowardly too sell.
11. - It would take a Scot with a bucketful of real courage to watch the Croatia match in an English pub. Bottler Brown? No way!
17 is there a bar in the bunker at No 10?
re 16. Roger - would you like to join the party? I’ll arrange for a membership form to be sent to you.
9 Agreed - it’s a must do. Go Gordon, No win, Stay away Gordon, England victory.
Maybe voters are getting the message - fire, floods and pestilence (three different plagues!) didn’t seem to work but the Curse of Kirkcaldy on our sporting teams must be recognised!
9.”We cannot have our national teams chances scuppered by the jinx that is Brown”
get real, if you can’t win, don’t blame Brown. it would be just because you can’t play well enough.
21 Sense of humour failure?
21. Did you get your humour by-pass on the NHS or did you go private?
14; Nick, gracious as always - but when you’re above 40% in today’s politics, there’s not a lot further to go!
13-”Added to that is the surprising lack of talent on the Government front bench”
Lack of talent or lack of chances? According to the papers, Brown is in charge and doesn’t let anyone “rise to the ocasion”. Maybe the cabinet ministers could be a little more independent….
14 You cannot be surprised Nick, No referendum having promised one in the manifesto, Gordo “toasted” at the Queens Speech, Jacqui Smith’s innefective answering of questions about 28 Days, the turnaround of the admiral’s opinion. Voters are not fools IMHO
22. “Sense of humour failure? ”
Ah, was it humour? Maybe that’s why half of the world doesn’t smile to British sense of humour and find it just weird…
27 - Perfect job! It must have been private.
21 Andrea - an unusually aggressive post from you, but undeniably true of course and speaking of next Wednesday’s crucial game for England, I wonder if, in the wake of Scotland’s defeat today, Andy Murray has rushed out and bought the Croation strip, as is his wont?
22, 23 Andrea as an Italian is quite within his rights to gloat and point out UK sporting deficiencies.
However Andrea - Gordon went to Wembley with Merkel, did England win? No. He went to Paris for the Rugby World Cup final, did England win? No. He went to watch Scotland v Italy today, did Scotland win? no. Not a good record. Its the Curse of Kirkcaldy I tell you!
I think there is a point that needs to be made whenever we get this “return to politics as usual”, “normal for Government’s to be behind in mid-term” spiel.
This Government has never won an election. This is a crucial distinction, even if you accept the above explanations. As such there is no reason to expect there to be a recovery.
16 - With respect to detention without trial, how is this an example of a policy that Labour are “too cowardly to sell” (opposition to). It’s their policy in the first place!!! If they hadn’t introduced it it wouldn’t require any opposition!!!
30 yes, he turns up to the croatia game at his peril - football fans are superstitious.
Sorry Andrea you are wrong. The Jonah is a long established feature of English superstition. All the evidence is that Brown is a Jonah.
33 If he turns up and England lose. How many Dave’s then ????
And incidentally you are showing your well known disdain for matters sporting with that post - so i think we can forgive the fact that an Italian complaining about other teams failing to address their own deficiencies when their sporting teams fail is the height of hypocrisy!!!
Stephen Pollard reports on his blog that Admiral Lord West has withdrawn from appearance on Andrew Marr tomorrow - another Goat silenced. So Lord Malloch Brown being spun against, Lord Digby Jones being schemed against by “fellow” Labour peer (we didn’t join politics to have a Tory minister in Labour government) now Lord West being sat on. Mercer has left.
Leaves his Lib Dem “advisors” - Lords Lester, Carlile, Baronesses Neuberger and Williams, Matthew Taylor - ands solitary figure of John Bercow. Except for Carlile, who seems to have joined the Gordon agenda on security, don’t seem to have heard much from them.
vaguely on topic - does this poll confirm that populus`is an outlier? As Wells said at the time, even given methodology differences, ICM and Populus cannot be reconciled. Now YG agrees with ICM, can we conclude Populus is off?
31 And Brown personally micro-managed the disastrous decision for Hamilton to stay out an extra lap in Shanghai on obviously worn tyres.
Probably.
From Yahoo’s coverage of the YouGov poll, which if true is an absolutely staggering change of opinion in just one month:
A month ago, 59% thought he was doing a good job compared to 29% who said he was doing badly.
Now those thinking he is doing well have fallen to 33%, against 43% who feel he is doing a bad job.
40 - Yep it’s interesting that when the polls first began to turn, Brown’s personal ratings were holding up. Looks like they’re catching up with a vengeance now!
36. “so i think we can forgive the fact that an Italian complaining about other teams failing to address their own deficiencies when their sporting teams fail is the height of hypocrisy!!! ”
I think Italy just eliminated Scotland..or something of that sort…I know it, because my Dad pretended to switch chanel to see the last minutes of the match whilst I was watching the last scenes of today’s McLeod’s Daughters episode
15 - The Govt really are going to need a new emergency committee. The way Gordon has managed to turn what was originally viewed as an important committee into a laughing stock in such a short space of time is incredible.
It’s almost as if he was no mesmerised by the way that his popularity soared in the first few weeks, that he has been trying to rerun what seemed to go well then as often as possible. But virtually all those “positives” are rapidly becoming seen as negatives and cynicism is soaring back through the roof. He’s stuck and there’s no obvious way out.
42 - yes i know you don’t keep too close track, Andrea
Ask some of your fellow Italians about World Cup 2002 and Euro 2004, however, and watch them explode about referees, bent linesmen, FIFA and the Danes and Swedes
39 - the sad thing is I was scrolling down the screen, couldn’t see the ‘probably’ and I thought “No, really?”
For a second there, I believed it
21 get real, if you can’t win, don’t blame Brown. it would be just because you can’t play well enough.
Andrea is Italian. Could be she wants England jinxed.
44. I recall a referee called Moreno (or something similar) and a match against South Korea?
And I can tell you that on TV they were already complaining about Scottish goal and another goal not allowed…
46 He not she!
46 - He.
47 - Well recalled. For every non-Italian, however, the all time favorite moment (alluded to before) must have to be at Euro 2004 when the only result that would knock Italy out was Denmark 2-2 Sweden, and it happened. Oh how we laughed!
27 Ah, was it humour? Maybe that’s why half of the world doesn’t smile to British sense of humour and find it just weird…
That means Half the world does smile to the British Sense of Humour. That is a pretty big market. All those terrible Monty Pythons, Benny Hills and Black Adders detracting from the incredibly funny Italian and German Comedies.
Half the World like British Comedy. The other half like Mr Bean.
Its a pity Political Correctness killed British Comedy
ahah I love it…Sunday Mail “Scotland Robbed As Ref Gifts Italy Winner”
Italian La Repubblica “Italian goal mysteriously not allowed” and “Scot goal from dubious position”
if Ave it is around; Do you think Gordon Brown is secretly managing Norwich city?
48 He not she!
He? If you’re so clever, why has she got a girls name?
HEY. Can we talk about Brown’s brand blowing up, the awesome march of Dave and Con Gain Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath?
51. “The other half like Mr Bean.”
yeah..I recall those dramatic ratings battle in Italy between Mr Bean and Murder, She Wrote at midday
54 - If you were so clever you would know that Andrea is only a girl’s name in England.
On the subject of British political Jonahs - I believe that John Major put himself in self-imposed exile from Chelsea for a long time. If only others were so considerate.
“If you’re so clever, why has she got a girls name? ”
being clever he has already replied..actually you’ve already replied to yourself earlier
These polls are meaningless this far from an election. It’s still in Labour’s hands and they are still gifted with a directionless Conservative opposition. However a reinvigorated Lib Dem party is significant.
I still believe there are a majority of voters who will make sure the Tories don’t win (unless Brown REALLY screws up) but an interesting center party that aren’t Tories could take a significant number of votes from Labour and we could see a hung parliament.
Mike. Not yet thanks but keep it on ice!
Andrea. Good to see you back. A nice change from dull Tory clones that have become the new black on here.
57 If you were so clever you would know that Andrea is only a girl’s name in England.
If you were so clever, you would know that PoliticalBetting is an English site.
You would also know that the English are famous for their sense of humour and it went right over your head
59. “Good to see you back”
I seem to pop just in the middle of Brown and sport discussion..last time I posted it was when people were discussing Brown attending the rugby match and England losing.
59 who are you calling dull clones!
59
“Directionless Conservative opposition”.. I think not , they are going for the political jugular. Absolutely right to too….. and its working.
oh my god its British names for British girls now
We love israel
59 - swap the “directionless” and the “reinvigorated” around and that might be a sensible post.
A majority of voters don’t have the power to make sure the Tories don’t win. Anyway i never cease to be amazed at left wingers who continue to attach far more weight to Party labels, than what those partyies actually do, and what’s more seem to believe that your average voter does to!
60 - Being English doesn’t automatically make you funny.
65 - i’m still here!
59 - hello Roger. Good to liaise with Lab rather than LDs. Con have won the next election but i admire your persistence.
“oh my god its British names for British girls now ”
That’s funny..the funny half of British sense of humour
61 - Well, you are showing that you have a real appreciation of the British psyche, Andrea. Sport is all most of us really care about and is where all the real arguments are to be had. You won’t catch people playing devil’s advocate and having arguments for the sake of it where sport is concerned!
66 A majority of voters don’t have the power to make sure the Tories don’t win. Anyway i never cease to be amazed at left wingers who continue to attach far more weight to Party labels
It never ceases to amaze me how certain Labour Clones will vote Labour whatever Labour is guilty of. They would literally prefer a bad Labour government to a good Conservative government.
60. Andrea is a legend around here. Bienvenuto!
On topic, mega collapse for Brown’s personal ratings, no?
70 (con) - but of course, it is one subject where, as a foreigner, it is very risky to get involved! We’ll stand our ground with vigour.
I think this covers it best
I thought it would be 10% for con tonight so there is some residual support for labour.
In practice it is unlikely labour will get less than 32% as gordon appeals to their core public sector etc vote.
This means lab will get no less than 220
68-Can you predict the next poll? =)
70. “You won’t catch people playing devil’s advocate and having arguments for the sake of it where sport is concerned! ”
Alex, that’s what I wanted to do
65. Viva Israel! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeG24BRqHKE
74 - I think “appeals” is putting it a bit strongly. Some may be nervous about what would happen to their jobs under a different Govt (not much i guess), but that’s just human instinct.
Andrea,
I was under the impression that Italian male names ended with -o, an evolution of the Latin -us, (e.g. Julio from Julius, Antonio from Antonius), and female names ended with -a (e.g Julia, Antonia). Is your name an exception or am I just flat-out wrong?
76 - Yep and i’m afraid i metaphorically tried to punch you in the nose. Sorry but had to be done!
71 Just as it amazed me that anyone could vote for the Conservatives in 1997 despite how incompetent and corrupt they had shown themselves to be .
Sulla, Socretes?
THe Yahoo info on the poll
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/pressass/20071117/tuk-brown-hit-by-poll-rating-slump-6323e80_1.html
Returning to topic, if things get much worse, then I think that the Blairites will be tempted to try a coup. After Brown was crowned Labour Leader and PM there was a honeymoon and a window of opportunity for a quick election to snatch a fourth term. But they never had the bottle to go for it.
Some Labour strategists may hope that by getting a new leader (and one more attractive than the grim Gordon Brown), they can get another honeymoon period, and this time boldly go for a quick election. (”boldly go” - I sound like Star Trek!) It won’t be a case of having bottle this time though, more like a last throw of the dice.
81 - Lol. They were trying to restrict the size of the Labour majority Mark. Either that or it was just inertia.
67 Being English doesn’t automatically make you funny.
I agree. You should visit my hometown of Newcastle!
And as Adrea says, only 50% of the world thinks the English are funny.
Thank goodness there is no Eurovision of Comedy. Swedes would vote for the Norwegians. Russia, Belorus and Ukraine would vote for Serbia. The Italians would drop out and win every year at the Comedy San Remo.
So Brown -26 in favourable, +13 in unfavourable in one month?
Not bad.
79. Socrates, generally speaking, you’re right that female names usually end with A and the great majority of male names with O. However there’re some exceptions: other than Andrea, the other one I can immediately think of is Nicola. A female name in UK* but male in Italy
* I know it because I once commented that I thought Nicola La Page (Tory candidate in 2005 somewhere near Leicestershire) was a man and someone replied “bit below the belt” thinking I was saying that I thought Mrs Le Page looked like a man not that I thought she was a man before looking at the pic and realizing Nicola was a female name
I don’t think people should underestimate what could be happening with house prices at the moment either. Arguably the only reason they are currently dropping through the floor is because people can’t afford to sell so are keeping the asking prices too high. Hence the market is currently static. At some point people are going to start biting the bullet and taking their losses.
86. “The Italians would drop out ”
natually because if they win by mistake they would be forced to organize the next edition which would be costly for the state TV and crap in terms of production quality anyway
89 *aren’t currently dropping through the floor
As someone who cannot abide football, and who deeply resented the way it was forced down our throats last year in shops, banks, restaurants and everywhere else during the world cup, I have to say I welcome anything that helps to eliminate England from the European competition!
On a further point, why are there separate teams for England, Wales and Scotland - rather than a single team for Great Britain?
On the same basis there should be no team for Germany - but separate teams from Bavaria, Saxony, Prussia, Westphalia etc. Similarly, why do we not see separate teams from Tuscany and Lombardy - rather than a single Italian team?
At the end of the day both Germany and Italy are far more recent creations than Great Britain!
92 - Well if all those countries want to abolish their national federations then maybe they could try it? We have four national federations, hence four teams.
Perhaps you’d better leave the country next summer?
I see macedonia won (which i thought would happen)
So 2-0 will see us win the group.
But i’ll take the draw!!
81 just as it amazed me that anyone could vote for the Conservatives in 1997 despite how incompetent and corrupt they had shown themselves to be
You have a point. Although Conservatives just had a rubbish leader and had become fat and lazy. Incompetent and corrupt is a description of Labour.
I couldnt vote conservative in 97 because major had to go and he wouldnt go.
Conservatives accept the idea of standing down and letting the opposition win. Labour, like the socialists they are, believe they have a divine right to rule.
yes but its all the fault of the Ashcroft spending in marginals zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz *
*Thought i would save a post from a PB.com institution
94 - We want to finish second to get an easier draw in the finals.
92 (con) - the main reason is that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are recognised countries, who just happen to be part of a United Kingdom. Bavaria and the rest, are not.
72 - Brand Brown does seem to be collapsing far faster than Brand Labour. Which suggests a touching faith by its supporters that Brown will ultimately do the decent thing and fall under one of Ken’s bendy-buses. But there is no suggestion that Brown has the wider interests of the Party at heart. If so, he would not have worked so hard to engineer a coronation, but would have instead welcomed a contest.
Two bets look worth having; GE in May 2010; and Jack Straw as next Prime Minister. Because when that first poll with Cameron on 50% comes along, moves will be afoot for Brown to be pushed under that bendy-bus.
Probably.
One thing political activists should remember is that the electorate (as a body) don’t vote on what a politician has achieved but on what they think they will achieve. 1945 a great example - voters appreciated Churchill’s leadership and achievements but looking ahead preferred Labour.
Howard in Australia has delivered great improvements in the economy but the wisdom of crowds seems to think there is a need for a correction in the direction of travel. The ALP looks less threatening since its accepted much of Howard’s changes, talking about spending and tax cuts.
Blair & Brown have done some good stuff but that’s done, no-one wants to take away BoE independence, ban gay partnerships, turn the clock back on public service improvements. But the government’s tired, it’s drifting, has no great purpose so voters are more likely now to say thanks for the memory, good job, bye. Heartless body the electorate.
That’s why Brown’s vision was/is important - he had to show he was the future not just reprising past glories. Think he’s both lost the opportunity and probably didn’t have a very different vision anyway beyond throwing overboard a couple of unpopular ideas. It’s still “since 1997″”Black Wednesday”"compared to 10 years ago” - that’s accepted, time to move on.
Cameron’s campaigning has been designed round just that view - don’t frighten the horses with radical reform, a few indicators of difference will do - irritating to activists but comforting to the electorate.
Once the housing market tips and recession follows as our economy stumbles without the fuel of consumer based debt the polls will swing even more violently against Brown.
Sheeple will tolerate rising taxes, immigration, bloated public sector waste etc as long as they have a job and their houses are rising in value.
Once they realise they’re in NE and their jobs are at risk someone is going to have to pay…
…step forward Crash Gordon.
94: im happy just to get through.
Its important for England to be there…..
92n a further point, why are there separate teams for England, Wales and Scotland - rather than a single team for Great Britain?
As a dedicated Europhile, I believe there should only be one national football team, The EU National Football team.
Also, the EU only should be represented at the Olympics - Miss World too!
If we truly join together we can be bigger and stronger and beat off all competition. If it worked for British Leyland and the USSR, it can work for us!
98 i thought they had all perished in that fire this week (the bendy buses that is) isnt that where they were stored?
93 It seems something of an anomaly in that the other teams are based on nation states!
I will not leave the country - simply hope for an early England exit.It’s the sheer hysterical hype that makes the competition so unbearable - if only it were conducted in the same atmosphere as the recent rugby world cup.
102 “As a dedicated Europhile, I believe there should only be one national football team, The EU National Football team”
but will they use the Lisbona treaty to allocate footballers per country?
On a differant betting note, I reakon it may be worth taking a punt on a white christmas in places like Norwich, Leeds, Birmingham and London. You heard it here first.
100 Just a reminder that I have offered wagers on both there not being a recession and/or house price crash in 2008 and not one of you doomsters has taken me up on it .
How are you defining a recession/hpc Mark?
103 - clearly not all - there was still one left on Thursday to cut me up at Marble Arch.
But perhaps a museum-piece RouteMaster could be brought out of retirement for the task!
102 lol. you are denis mcshane and i claim my 1 euro of defaulted northern rock mortgage
99 Blair & Brown have done some good stuff but that’s done…
Sorry, thats where I stopped reading your post.
The only positive thing Blair and Brown have done is BoE ‘independence’ and lowering the Age of Consent for Homosexuals.
Marches for ‘Lowering the Age of Consent for Homosexuals’ were very well attended by middle aged men. Not many mums of young homosexuals on those marches.
108 The accepted definition of a recession ie 2 succesive quarters of negative growth . For HPC I have suggested a fall in house prices of 20% but would consider an alternative figure .
110 you are denis mcshane and i claim my 1 euro of defaulted northern rock mortgage
Sorry, I dont even know who denis mcshane is. But I do know, if we had an EU entrant for Miss World we would have a better chance of winning.
no brickbats ladies. It was just intended as a joke. (run for cover)
87 - Recognised by whom? As a political realty , England, Wales and Scotland have not been separate countries for centuries - whilst Bavaria , Prussia . Saxony etal only came together under Bismark circa 1870! Bavarians see themselves as very distinct from other parts of Germany- every bit as much as the Scots seek to be distinguished from the English exemplified by different political parties CSU rather than CDU!
20% over how many years? From peak to trough on average prices? Real or nominal?
It would take years to play out so isn’t a realistic wager.
However, for the sake of argument I would put any amount you care to name on house prices being 20% or more lower in real terms in 4 years time.
In fact, they’ll need to drop by around twice that in real terms to get back to the long-term average.
112 Mark - agree both recession and a 20% house price fall are unlikely - squeeze, low growth, stop or small fall in house prices.
It doesn’t matter as regards Brown/Labour prospects - Brown’s reputation as Chancellor has little bearing on how voters think of him as PM - a recession would add to other damage but equally as Major showed if voters perceive you are a better choice than the opposition then you can win in a recession (and lose in a boom). The point about the stuff we are hearing of bunkers, of internal arguments etc is that it plays badly with voters. It isn’t prime ministerial.
115 20% or an alternative figure over 1 year in 2008 which is when all you doomsters are forecasting the recession and house price crash .
104 - that is because in most other countries either
the National Federations gain their authority from their Governments. The UK sporting federations, on the other hand, are pretty much completely independent of Government (albeit in many cases this has been slowly changing in recent years as professionalism has required government money to be input).
Also because we invented most of the games, and were therefore involved in their administration from the start, we were effectively able to dictate how we arranged ourselves.
Essentially there is no prescribed link between National Federerations and Nation states. It’s just we are unique in the two not correlating.
117 - It would not be appropriate to put oneself in a position to gain financially from other’s misfortune.
100. Brown is Blair’s fall guy, so that the Blairites win by default! Just blame poor old GB.
If theres International Match of the Day on, go watch teh 2nd half of NI vs Denmark, goals…shots off the post, a bloke on loan to Swansea almost pulling off a Zidane style shot from range and a winner of sheer striking genius…if Healy was in an England shirt scoring the goals he’s scored for us he’d be touted as the best striker in Europe…
Sadly we won’t qualify but excitement? It exceeded even Scotland vs Italy..but with a better winner.
121 - Just a shame they cocked up so badly against Iceland.
121 - v unlucky - would loved to have seen you there
Normally you beat Spain but with spain winning tonight you have to win by a huge margin
122. Last minute loser. If anyone reckoned we might finish third which matters no end for our rankings in future draws..had a man who now holds the European Championship qualifiers goal scoring record….we came from behind to beat Denmark, Sweden and Spain to win and we’d seen the best quality goals to be scored at Windsor Park, better than anything done by George Best in a green shirt, we’d have taken it.
Still think we got the wrong manager though…..
123. Ah never mind that, we’ve no chance but we are rocking, there is belief…just watch that winner on MOTD…quality.
Anyway completely off on a tangent.
Some light reading on the Queen’s speech. Some good quality stuff.
This is interesting.
3 - just spotted it! LOL
53 - LOLOLOLOLOL (!)
129 its a lovely story. gordon brown is delia smith
130 - norwich go down 08.
But gordon = blue square north!
Regarding the national federations thing, I get extremely irritated with various things, notably facebook, where I can not select my country as “United Kingdom”, having only the choices of the home nations. On wikipedia also celebrities are generally listed as having their nationality/birth place referenced as a home nation and not the UK. I’ve also seen the UK split as if it were four countries on Lonely Planet maps. Why do so many organisations take a clearly political stance on this issue? Catalonia, Bavaria and Texas have as much case of being listed as their own country as the home nations do.
59 Mike. Not yet thanks but keep it on ice!
I may, of course be proved wrong, but did anyone else conclude that this ill-disguised message from Roger to our host, relate to a huge champagne party he, Roger, is planning at the Ritz for PB.comers in the run-up to Christmas.
Go on Roger, admit it, I’m right aren’t I?
133 hope so!
Will Mark senior, Paul lloyd, colin w and sbs be there?!!
130. Can you imagine Gordon Brown screaming “Let’s be ‘avin’ you!” to insufficiently supportive fans?
Shock Horror BBC suddenly noticed the LIBDEMs exist
On their website - BBC News- Politics - leads with Vince Cable and Northern Rock and also a piece tonight at 7.45 on Paddick criticising Ian Blair for being identified as too close to Labour
Yokel,
If you beat Spain and Sweden lose to Latvia (unlikely, I know …), you’d be level on points with Sweden - and on the tiebreaker rules for this contest, you’d go through, because NI outperformed Sweden on the head-to-head fronts.
Blue Revolution?http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/11_02/newtoryMS1611_468×449.jpg
137. A we have to beat Spain but I fancy Sweden are not going to slip up against Latvia though I always thought the Swedes look beatable.
“‘Dysfunctional’ Brown under fire in rebellion by mandarins”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=494741&in_page_id=1770
133 Surely the Champagne Bar at the new Eurostar terminal - would need the longest bar to serve the numbers who would descend from Pb.com.
“Our forces can’t carry on like this, says General Sir Richard Dannatt” in the Telegraph.
140 and from British Bulldog Brown - internal passports (well he’s been reading yokel’s posts and thinks he needs to keep an eye on his movements)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=494738&in_page_id=1770
143-L0L.I’m happy that I don’t need one!!!!!
143-”The Home Office publication, written last year, also said the “rationale” behind the system is to provide the police with “essential intelligence”.”
Now you can see what’s their point!!!!!!Anyway I’m off to bed!
Oborne today in the Mail was pretty accurate
A good captain and leader spends most of their time making sure their team succeed and gets the most satisfaction from the success of their team. The more they exceed expectations the better
As Gordo has never had a real job, he has no idea about this and real leadership. So, for example, any manager worth their salt with Blinky Ball’s in the team, would put him on a serious media training course, befor he get’s anywhere near school newspaper reporters, less Newsnight
143. We’ve had it for years, just not in a formal way. I used to get stopped and asked for photo ID on the Belfast to Heathrow route plenty. You’d give them a photo driving license, theyd disappear then return 5 minutes later after checking you out.
The bad news for you guys, is this is thin end of the wedge, its a dry run for ID cards being used in the same way for the rest of you.
147 - That was my thought; make it formal to NI (also bringing in passports to the Republic) see how that works then plan for IDs for rail and air travel in UK.
I wonder if the rush of anti-Brown stories in the papers have arisen because of his ham fisted handling of the newspapers?
Also running a Govt through a small clique will create resentment in those outside his bivouac.
The decline in his personal ratings is staggering and he has gone from being an asset to a liability in a few weeks.
With Yougov, 35 is the lowest Brown/Labour poll. The highest was 44. With Yougov ratings, I suggest the key marker level for Labour polls is 31, the lowest Labour have been since the GE05. 29 might even spark a rebellion.
148. The legacy check mechanisms are here already anyway. It also helps that collation as regards NI can be done via that rather large MI5 building they are constructing on the outskirts of Belfast at the military garrison at Palace Barracks. Secure, close to the airport and apparently a very useful secondary site should something happen to the main office in London.
In fact its the second biggest office for MI5 in the UK, certainly much much bigger than their previous offices and too big for just watching republicans these days. Bearing in mind the number of Islamic terror suspects under watch here is apparently less than 10, its a bit big for that alone too.
On extra security checks.
The main terrorist attacks have been on tubes and buses so to tackle that we get added security on trains and an ID check between here and NI?
I did not know that our local born terrorists had links to NI these days?
YouGov seem currently slightly more favourable to Labour than ICM, so with the current poll at 35% might ICM lose a certain cats home money?
149, Cant see a rebellion even of they go a touch below 30 (unlilely it’ll be that bad short of a seriously bad story emerging beyond the normal) but it is interesting how many people felt Brown was not No.1 material and was not an asset from a long way out and there is certainly evidence that they may be correct.
151. Testbed. Its a relatively easy defined area to work from. defined comms links and so on. Secondly we are used to it
Also I’d be very wary of assuming there isnt a threat from this part of the world any more. thre’s enough of them that fancy doing a Canary Wharf and their numbers are growing a touch. Their problem is logistical right now but it may not always be that way though the rumour is that they are fairly well tagged by the Security Services at this time.
Tony, if you’re reading this, please come back.
“Gordon Brown the master ventriloquist” Ouch!
Ah, remember the days when it was “x Gordons” and the usual suspects were rubbishing the month after month of polls that had previously shown what a terrible PM the nation thought Brown would be once Blair stood down?
I think we can say “the Brown Blip” is well and truly over now. He started well in dealing with the floods and pestilence, but it’s gone horribly wrong for him since he started jinxing our national sporting fixtures.
Stay away please on Wednesday, Gordon. I hope the press make this a vocal campaign over the next 3 days. It will help to reinforce what a loser GB is.
Back to the LD contest - news that some LD MPs believe Chris Huhne’s campaign is closing the gap on Nick Clegg:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libdems/story/0,,2212896,00.html
156 - I thought today’s (Saturday) cartoon by Morland was masterful - Broon and his puppet cabinet, heads being bitten off as he gnaws away at his fingernails:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
157.”but it’s gone horribly wrong for him since he started jinxing our national sporting fixtures.” As soon as saw him at the game I thought that’s it we are doomed!
With the run of bad results at sporting events he has attended, I do wonder if someone like Alastair Campbell would have let him anywhere near Hampden today?
92. During the brief period when I was a member of the Liberal Party, there was a motion at the 2000 Assembly proposing that the UK should have a single national football teams. I made a speech as follows:
“There are two conflicting principles here.
“On the one hand, as a Unionist, I think that it is illogical for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have separate national football teams in international competitions, when (for example) Bavaria and Catalonia don’t.
“On the other hand, on the subject of sport in general and football in particular, I couldn’t give the slightest toss [cheering and applause] so I think that the proposer of this motion should vote for this motion, and all the rest of us should abstain.”
Do i dedect signs that Gabble is beginning to lose the faith? That’s got to be very worrying for Labour supporters.
The Sunday Times poll shows that Gordon is as popular in the UK as George Bush is in the US http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm
Gordon should be a little pleased that he is doing no better than Blair was before he left.
158. You have to smile when a newspaper report says ’some LD MPs are saying’ without actually naming any of them - why not?; given that about 10 are backing Chris, it would be suprising if one or two of Chris’s backers didn’t want to brief that he was gaining ground - it’s hard to find any actual ‘news’ in this story. Last time round the Observer wrote some very gushing pro Chris pieces, and I think they are being ‘helpful’ again! [PS I'm a declared Clegg supporter, so feel free to weight my comments accordingly]