Will Vince over-shadow whoever wins?
November 28th, 2007
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How can the winner possibly do better than Cable?
With the Lib Dem leadership contest coming into its final phase could the party be facing a big challenge when the new man gets elected and takes his place at Prime Minister’s Questions?
For after another rivetting performance by Cable this lunchtime it’s hard to see how either Clegg or Huhne are going to be able to do anything like as well.
The biggest laughs today came with Cable’s comment about Brown’s “remarkable transformation in the last few weeks from Stalin to Mr Bean, creating chaos out of order rather than order out of chaos”.
Huhne or Clegg are going to face a barrage of heckling when they stand up for the first time with both the Tory and Labour thug elements having a real interest in inflicting early damage.
Mike Smithson
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Yes, I posted Ben Brogan’s piece on this on the last thread.
Sorry to go OT right away but 5th donor revealed? Brogan again
“Funnily enough, the Tories are even now passing round details of someone they believe is the fifth intermediary for Mr Abrahams’ largesse. He is - if they are to be believed - Joseph Waugh, a bicycle shop manager in Mr Abrahams’ home town. He gave Labour two donations of £25,000 each on the same day in February last year. Surely Labour can’t holding back any more?”
He probably will overshadow them. Cable’s PMQ performances have set the bar extremely high so a couple of relative failures for the winner and the murmurs could soon restart
Vince Cable, a man of average height in the land of the Little People.
I said a while back that the LibDem membership should go for a write in for the right man. Wonder if any will?
I’ve got to admit it, Vince did do well at PMQs - but it wasn’t a difficult target.
Brown will be furious that he was the butt of the whole House’s humour.
More carpet chewing at No 10 tonight!
2 - I reckon there might be dozens!
I think Cable is benefiting from the comparison with Ming and the fact that, as an interim leader, he can be a bit more relaxed about taking risks.
Picking up on the last thread - I suspect many supporters of both candidates believe their man is the one to win more general support for the party. The question is which political direction and which candidate is most likely to do it.
Yes Cable will, because he clearly ought to have thrown his hat into the ring.
I do not accept the ridiculous idea that age should be a bar, though obviously being 114, as Ming appeared to be was.
Clearly Cable is able and could do the job.
Also that was a great line!
O/T - The Teacher has been charged in the Teddy bear thing.
Yes Benedict, Cable is indeed able.
The bleeder should be Leader.
A manky old glove puppet would overshadow those two charisma bypass merchants.
Did the MP for these “donors” know that they had donated massive amounts to the party?
I have asked him (Dave Anderson, MP for Blaydon) but he wont tell because I am not his constituent.
He must have been aware surely?
Could a hack get on to it please?
11 - That’s not very flattering to Sir Ming
8. How about “Vince will make you whince - respect!”
9 - Perhaps now we will stop hearing people coming on the news expressing great fear about the repurcussions to the school/community/whatever, and actually address the disgraceful situation that this poor woman finds herself in.
11 - Brown and Cameron I presume you mean
Cable plays well in political obsessive circles but he is too strange looking to be PM.
Is there any chance that Mr Abrahams is Labour’s only donor, I mean it does seem odd that a bicycle shop owner could afford to give so much money to Labour, but then again one of their biggest donors is meant to have got his money from a part share in greengrocers.
O/T
“Discs ‘worth £1.5bn’ to criminals
Two missing computer discs containing the personal details of 25 million people could be worth up to £1.5bn to criminals, say the Lib Dems.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7117291.stm
Nick Palmer speaking in the House now.
18 - Lol. Just imagine it. Every Labour donation under £100,000 in the last 5 years originating from one man!
Cable’s old and bald. The sad assumption is that he can’t be leader in our lovely visual age. I am not sure I agree. He showed today that there are other ways then looks to get the leading soundbite on the 6 O’Clock news.
2 - Bicycle Repair Man? And now for something completely different
http://cycling.finial.com/stuff/supermen.jpg
What’s Gordon doing there on the bottom left?
Re 10 Peter the Punter “Yes Benedict, Cable is indeed able.
The bleeder should be Leader.
”
20 - on his one and only favourite topic, presumably?
Sorry. I said I was going to ignore the topic. I couldn’t resist…
21 - and all to be repaid, as well?
If I was a Lib Dem I’d start a ‘Draft Vince’ campaign.
23 - if I was Terry Jones, I’d sue you for that John!
Re 14 Ali G “8. How about “Vince will make you whince - respect!””
Re 17, Panurge, “Cable plays well in political obsessive circles but he is too strange looking to be PM.”
If he is in the Liberal Democrats there is no danger of him ever becomming PM!
Nick Palmer quite sensible as one would expect but even he says you have to have be a senior manager to release data. I assume by senior he means at the level of, say, the General Secretary.
25 - It’s a pleasure to hear a Labour MP pontificating on ID cards and databases etc while actually know what they’re talking about. Whether you agree with him or not, Nick does at least know what he’s talking about. I know he won’t admit it, but he really must be embarrassed at the contributions of some of his colleagues on the issue who are completely out of their depth.
(it is true that many opponents are also short of genuine knowledge, but it is far easier to put simplistic arguments against ID cards without sounding like a complete idiot).
Yes, as I said on the previous thread, it would have been much easier if Huhne or Clegg were following Ming directly, rather than having to follow Cable. He has immediately set the threshold much higher than Ming ever could, making Huhne/Clegg’s task harder.
I agree with Panurge @ 17 though: Cable plays well in ‘politically obsessive’ circles, but exposed to the general public over a longer period, in different circumstances, and I think his shine would wear off. (He looks more like a secondary school chemistry teacher than a politician)
Remember too, that PMQs doesn’t have the same resonance for the general public as it does for us politicos, although being able to say something worthy of a TV news soundbite (which Cameron and Cable both do well) will be essential, whoever is chosen as leader.
“Sleaze scandal: Deputy Harriet Harman’s future in question as she is axed from debate”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=496940&in_page_id=1770
Jospeh Waugh the alleged fifth man donated 25,000, on the same page, on the Electoral Commission report is Peter xxxxxxxx from Putney donating £510 to Labour
Should we be told something? Is he the sixth man!
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media-centre/newsreleasedonations.cfm/news/609
Basically Nick accepts there’s a trade off in the whole thing, but in my (not particularly knowledgeable) opinion significantly overplays the benefits and understates the risks, which obviously skews his views of what is “proportionate”. As an IT professional he also seems to overfocus on the technology and how it should work, and underplay the human factor and how it will work.
OK who should I vote for, for LD leader. I just can’t make up my mind. Voting record so far: Pardoe, Beith, Hughes, Huhne, so a 100% failure record so it isn’t as if my vote is worth anything and I can’t believe I voted for Beith over Ashdown now.
35 - Nothing to be ashamed of kjh. So did Mike, except he still maintains he was right!!!
12. Why would the MP know about donations made by his constituents to the national labour party? And why on earth would you expect him to tell you, irrespective of whether or not you’re his constituent?
Good day to buy Labour.
What is the worse offence in a leader in our telegenic age: to be bald - or ginger?
35. kjh - Stick with Huhne. Read Tim13’s posts atthe end of the last thread.
4.. Spot on. ‘chaos out of order, rather than order out of chaos?’ Doesn’t sound that impressive.
I remember Brown’s first PMQs. Ming suddenly seemed impessive. Brown would make half of England seem impressive. Ball at feet. Open Goal. Kick. Cheers from the rooftops.
35
Vote for the one who sounds most human. (that’s why I disliked Hague and Howard and IDS and Kinnock and why I dislike Brown… all sound/ed less than normal humans)
I have my ballot paper here .
I have decided. I am going to vote for Clegg. Huhne seems a bit too scary though he has real achievements and is prepared to fight.
We will have the advantage of going into the next election with Vince and Ming and Clegg and Huhne better known and all with something to give. The Conservative Home monthly questionnaire listing what I think of the Tory ministers - still amazes me - most of them have been totally invisble
32
An analysis of Ms Harman’s campaign funds has found that of the £46,000 donated to her, £33,000 was registered only after she won the deputy leadership on 25 June.
She had been forced to take out a personal bank loan of £10,000 to cover the costs of campaign. As her team desperately sought to raise money, they were put in contact with a group called Muslim Friends of Labour, which gave £5,000.
The group’s involvement raises more questions as it is being investigated by the Electoral Commission over claims that it is a front for Glasgowbased businessman Imran Khand
38 “Good day to buy Labour.”
Seems like just a handful of people have been buying Labour for years…. Like all those inflatible tanks we had in the war, they just tried to make it look like an army.
“I’m the Labour donor.”
“No, I’m the Labour donor”….
Re 35 KJH, “OK who should I vote for, for LD leader. I just can’t make up my mind. Voting record so far: Pardoe, Beith, Hughes, Huhne, so a 100% failure record so it isn’t as if my vote is worth anything and I can’t believe I voted for Beith over Ashdown now.”
Write in another option of Cable, then the other two in any order.
38,45 A dyslexic/fast skim reader sees that as “Goodbye Labour today”
38/45 - Yep, unfortunate choice of phrase, Gabble!
For those who like to pick their horses by topical names, Gullible Gordon goes at Chepstow in a couple of minutes.
48 - Gabble just missed out an ‘r’. What was intended was ‘Good day to bury Labour’
49 Strong start then falls way back, but comes from nowhere to win the race in the last furlong? Hmmm.
Re. 42, I thought that (until at least his cheap jibe about taxing spirits in his last Conference speech) IDS was much nicer and much more human than those ostensibly nice (but, in reality, very petulant and peevish) characters Major and Cameron.
Icarus - continuing from the last thread in what way do you think Nick Clegg will take us forward. I agree with Tim 13’s last post:
“There is a (fairly) lively debate in the Lib Dems about how to break out of the 3rd party trap. I (and clearly Goupillon) believe the only way to do that is to go distinctive. Others in the party look to “sticking to the centre” and therefore not do anything to rock the boat of the post-Thatcher / Blair consensus. You, I think, like most of the Tories or near-Tories on this site, would find it hard to go along with this. Which, I think is why you express that view. Equally, I believe, from doorstep experience, that many ordinary Tory voters would be more inclined to break away from their normal habits in favour of a Lib Dem who took a noticeably different line. For most of the other potential LD voters, looking “more Tory” is not an attractive line. So for me, and those who think similarly, there is no alternative as far as positioning and political strategy is concerned. Charles kennedy’s great strength was to represent that independence of mind to the great non-political British public.”
I have listened to Nick and read his literature but I am not at all clear how he would lead theParty.
Re 47, Jonathan. “38,45 A dyslexic/fast skim reader sees that as “Goodbye Labour today”
How apt
Two points:
On the subject of Cable. He is certainly doing well at PMQs and has some very good lines but a significant element in his success is the willingness of the Tory benches to cheer him. I suspect that this is not unrelated to his temporary status. Would they be so supportive of Clegg/Huhne who they know will be their opponent in a general election?
43 - Icarus says “We will have the advantage of going into the next election with Vince and Ming and Clegg and Huhne better known and all with something to give. The Conservative Home monthly questionnaire listing what I think of the Tory ministers - still amazes me - most of them have been totally invisble”
This ignores the fact that the Tories now have a strong top team. Hague, Davis and Osborne are all high profile. Until recently the latter was the weak link but he’s done an impressive job of raising his profile and reputation since the IHT announcement at party conference.
PtP from the previous thread:
I would be interested to know what PBers ……. think the realistic floor is.
“Realistic” is the key word here and I just see no prospect whatever of Labour losing more than 100 seats net at the next GE, which would equate to a floor of around 255 seats, although it’s quite possible that the betting markets may dip below this level.
Come the election, I expect them to secure a minimum of 275 seats.
Labour are indeed very capable of winning the next GE (especially with a change of leader IMHO), the present electoral climate is very volatile with a Labour lead of 12% in late September completely reversing to a similar Tory lead in just two months, plus they have the major advantage of incumbancy.
For these reasons, even over the short term, I wouldn’t be a seller of Labour below 280 seats, nor a buyer of Tory seats above the same level. Of course, were I to have open profitable positions at these levels, I would be tempted to let them run a while. In forming this view, I recognise that I may be somewhat inactive in these markets, at least for now.
Yes I agree we should not be afraid of being distinctive if the distinctive policy is right! Leading the Liberal Party is not as easy as leading either of the other two - I hope we would not allow the sort of presidential system that has built up with individual MPs, let alone members having no say in policy.
I think Nick will be better at putting the policies that the party believes in across, that he will market himself better and continue the good work that Ming has done with our organisation.
If Chris won I should be happy to support him.
56 Sorry for the unintended extended itallics.
57.Icarus - we both want the same thing and I confirm I will support Nick if he is successful!
56
If there are several resignations over the payments sffair and the story in the Timesonline about Ministry interference in Planning permission is true - and develops - I can see Labour share dropping below 20%.Temporarily.
And a change of leadership will imo be caused only by illness or a MAJOR disaster (Brown and police?) so it will be a desperate situation. Which surely would mean very low poll ratings…
So perhaps 180 may not be impossible. Depends on what the SNP do in Scotland.
Why are the BBC interviewing David Blunkett from Jerusalem?
56 I should add that having nervously sold Labour quite recently at around 285, I recently closed at 272. It’s disappointing that Spreadfair’s spread of late has been 6-8 seats, similar to IG & Sporting. I’m sure as we get closer to an election and turnover increases, these will close up somewhat.
56 Thanks for that, PfP.
The reason I ask is that I have a large Labour sell position and would kind of like to realise the profit, but it’s difficult to do so at present when every new bulletin brings them further woes.
You rather reinforce my view that the price doesn’t have much further to fall, although it sure ain’t going to go up for a bit.
61 - He just had to throw his two penneth in.
64 - but is it his two penn’orth or someone else’s?
62 Yes, the spreads usually narrow as the event approaches, PfP.
I seem to be alone in thinking that Vince’s performance today was not actually his best - the joke about Stalin & Mr Bean seemed just a tad over-rehearsed. Credit to him, however, for again overcoming the shakes, by the simple expedient of gripping his prompt paper with both hands, locked together in a vice-like clamp.
Re 61, Alex “Why are the BBC interviewing David Blunkett from Jerusalem?”
because they would rather not be in teh same country as him?
O/T from previous thread -
PtP No, not Pimlico, but Plaistow, so nearer you!
67 - no doubt impeccably well written on a nice sheet of paper - unlike “Mr Bean” with his child-like jottings scrawled in black marker pen in capital letters across his tagged-together reams of notes.
You can tell how shambolic a PM Brown is from the shambolic nature of his notes.
I think it is likely that Clegg if he wins will grow into the role. He is by no means the finished article.
What should excite the LD’s is that they are starting to amass not only a pretty talented looking front bench, but a group of interested, party grandees that are more impressive than the other parties.
So a Clegg run party, with Huhne, Davey, Featherstone etc. and Cable, Ming, Chaz, Paddy, Shirley fighting the rear quarter. This is a mouth watering prospect for them at a time when there looks to be a serious opportunity for a breakthrough.
63 I expect the bull market will be dominated by the perceptions that the bottom for Labour is more or less between Labour’s 1983 result (200 ish) and Tories 1997/2001 (160 ish).
If things look really dire the “Canadian Style Wipeout” peception make take root with some overenthusiastic wealthy Tories, so the Market could dip a bit toward the low end. Also the Christmas silly season has traditionally been a bad time for Labour. So it could fall further around the holiday.
Against that, all it takes is one slip from Cameron or a couple of decent polls to change the momentum and push things back to a vanilla middle ground.
So a getting out above 200+ looks like the low risk option, but you might be lucky.
Sean Fear, white supremacist supporter;
From the Reading Evening Post comments:
http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/2018/2018296/underfire_tory_im_no_racist_
“Richard Willis has written nothing that he should be expected to apologise for, and there is nothing that Mr. Wilson needs to be investigating. Far too often, when Tories get attacked by the Left, their reaction is to throw one of their number to the wolves. I fear that that is what will happen here. Left wing grandstanding over this issue should be treated with the contempt it deserves.”
Sean Fear, Luton
Note, the awful Fear says Willis has written NOTHING to apologise for. Willis himself has made a grovelling apology in an attempt to save his job.
Cable’s able but Vince is mince but being a Lib dem and looking strange is just the kind of USP a third party needs. If Chris from Paris is there-your country is falling apart! Bring back the socialists!
74. I think Gordon is the one who is mince today!
Labour’s ACTUAL floor maybe around 200. Their SPREADMARKET floor will be a lot higher.
53 - Goupillon mirrors my feelings exactly and, as a mere common or garden voter, I have no ultimate ties. I will have to be convinced into voting at all if Clegg is leader, if only Kennedy were fit and well enough…….
71 - The problem with that is that, if the figurehead performs below expectations, as Clegg has been doing, the talk of challenges, as per Ming, will intensify with such a strong back line.
Better to keep Clegg for the future, now is not the right time.
Very good line from Vince Cable. Not sure outsiders will get the Stalin reference but none the less good.
Having done a bit of work for the Clegg team my information is that the vote is running 60/40 to Clegg but of course that does come from the Clegg team. Did a You Gov poll on the Lib Dem leadership yesterday so guess it will be published soon.
73- if there is anything French people want, it’s certainly not to bring back the incedibly weak and divided socialist party to power.
Besides, I don’t see in which way my country is “falling apart”… and I cannot see how the incredibly moronic and self-centred Ms Royal would be able to do anything better than the current government.
73. It’s the socialists rioting on the streets that are making the country fall apart! Bringing them back into government would be like putting the criminals in charge of the prison!
79 - I think it is more complicated than that
79- the socialists aren’t in the street, they’re nowhere…
Without wishing to gloat, can someone give me the full list of disasters that have befallen Labour in the last two weeks, both inside and outside the Village? Dates too would be helpful.
To my recollection, the list includes:
- Discgate
- Northern Rock stuff
- Milliband’s speech being changed
- Lord West’s u-turn
- Defence Lords against Brown
- Party funding stuff and HH
Was the immigrants thing recently or not? Two weeks is a long time in politics!
56 Labour losing 120 seats is about the limit because of the advantage they have in the electoral system.
A key area is the block of 40+ Labour Scottish seats. The SNP have made progress but are not reaching above the 35% level nor have Labour fallen below 30% in Scotland. If that happened then significant numbers of Labour seats would fall.
75 Absolutely!! Sorry of I wasn’t clear.
82-http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/374326/brown-needs-to-recover-and-quick-or-he-is-doomed.thtml
85- http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/374326/brown-needs-to-recover-and-quick-or-he-is-doomed.thtml
38 “Good day to buy Labour “.. Gabble…., was that a typo, did you mean “Good day to bury Labour ?
63. I posted some time ago that barrier points in the Tory seats market were 285 (parity), 300 (round number), 309 (100 seat gain) and 325 (majority).
This is based on my rule of thumb that parity is at 285 (570 plus 80 others). Clearly, one’s view of the LD and SNP prospects would affect this. The 285 mark was broken at the start of Brown’s Faltering Fortnight. The 300 mark is approaching fast.
Conversely, Labour’s barrier points would be 285, 270 (mirroring 300) and 245 (Con majority).
This does not mean that 245 is the floor or that any of these numbers will be reached. Just that these numbers represent real political achievements and gamblers will be watching them. Similarly, the market could go the other way if Brown recovers or Cameron stumbles.
50 sorry James, just noticed you got there before me…
61 “Why are the BBC interviewing David Blunkett from Jerusalem?”
“That bloody dog. I’m supposed to be in Bradford….”
These threads are becoming better by the day. A lot of funny posts today………
My reason for thinking Clegg’s the man (apart from £200 at 5/4) is that he speaks six languages. Nothing impresses a women like multi lingualism. All he needs is a few overseas trips and then out onto the balcony with a press corps firing questions at him in whatever language they choose…………..
49/51 re Gullible Gordon
According to the Sporting Life he was “held up, ridden and headway over 4f out, hung left and weakened ”
And finished 6th.
92 Very funny.
87 - I own the copyright on that gag
94/87/50 James , I just posted an apology. Great gag!
81. If the Socialits aren’t on the streets who are those motley people carrying plackards all over Nice?
91 - When was the last time there was a lot of publicity about a third party’s overseas trips?
Whoever it is, the leader chosen needs to prise voters away from the other parties whilst keeping those they hold, everything else is secondary to that.
97. Well if they want my vote helping me win my bet would be a start!
92 Well, what did you expect?
Well like I said yesterday, and the day before etc. It can only be up from now on for Labour!!
94,5 Your copyright is not worth much for such a derivative work, clearly developed from a previous post (47).
Evening All
Any whisper of a poll being published in the light of the latest debacle?
101-I asked almost the same in the last thread and Anthony said:
“275: YouGov’s one is due this week, so Friday or possibly tomorrow if it’s early, MORI’s could pop up any day.”
96- trade-unionists, communists, members of various far-left parties… The socialists do not support officially the recent strikes.
Mind you they don’t oppose them either
“HH unsackable.” James Kirkup
News to me.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/nov07/unsackableharriet.htm
“Could it be that Mr Brown has been reminded of the fact that Ms Harman is almost unsackable. She was elected to her post as Labour deputy leader by the party members, and only they can sack her from that job. And as long as she is deputy leader, Labour’s constitution states she must have a Cabinet job.”
This from Fraser Nelson on Spectator blog posted on Conservative Home
4pm: A great line from Fraser Nelson (my emphasis): “Brown told Peter Tapsell that “this job is an important job and I will continue to do it to the best of my ability”. Yes, Prime Minister, that’s what we’re all worried about.”
Highly amusing piece….
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/backbencher/story/0,,2218449,00.html
It certainly raises the question. What has happened to Gordon’s compass - he hasn’t mentioned it for a while?
Afternoon all
I attended the LD leadership hustings in London last evening and if you’re interested, I’ve put my thoughts here:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2007/11/evening-with-nick-and-chris.html
People have called it a “head or heart” decision but there is, I think, a parallel with the Cameron-Davis contest in 2005. Nick Clegg isn’t the finished article and Mike is probably right to be concerned about his impact in the HoC. He struggled at times last night to find the right word (or any word) and hesitation like that will cost him dear in the bearpit.
Chris is much more measured and his speech was delivered with an authority, conviction and passion that I’ve rarely heard (though intonation remains a small problem). In the bearpit and on tv, I think Chris will do well but Nick is engaging and conversational and people do warm to him.
I don’t in any way underestimate the huge service Vince Cable has carried out in the past few weeks and he has perhaps had the “luck” that always deserted Sir Menzies. Issues on which Cable can speak with authority have come to the fore at the right time.
I can’t comment on what madmacs opines at 77 but I certainly thought last night the split was 40% for Huhne, 30% for Clegg and 30% undecided on the way in. After the hustings, I can’t say. I will be surprised if Clegg wins by as much as 60-40 to be honest.
A vote for Clegg is a risk - the danger is he fails to shine at events like PMQs and doesn’t develop but there is little doubt in my mind he is more willing to think “outside the LD box” on a range of issues such as defence, vouchers etc. Chris is the leader the Party will be comfortable with and I suspect he will attract some of the “plague on both or all your houses” vote but he was too willing to close down too much last night in what I thought was an attempt to push the right buttons with the activists.
Many of the socio-economic and environmental problems facing our country are complex and interconnected and it may well be that solving or ameliorating them will require solutions which may be difficult for liberals (as well as conservatives) to deal with but that doesn’t mean they can’t be considered if they appear to be effective.
83/87. Don’t forget in 1983 the Nationalists were a spent force. An SNP breakthrough combined with a 1983 Labour performance would put the floor at around 180. The lift-off point for the SNP (and for any party with a similar vote-structure under FPTP) is at 33%. As a rule of thumb, for every 1% increase above that level, 3 Labour seats fall. I thought polls were showing the SNP at above this level at the moment.
77 - If Team Clegg’s canvassing is putting him at 60-40 then it is probably very close indeed.
107 - Your comment that Chris is better on TV is important. That is how most members will judge the candidates and how the public will too. Clegg may be very charming one to one, and may even be a more passionate speaker, but it is short news clips and programmes like Newsnight and Question Time that really count.
77 I heard the other day from “a senior member of Huhne’s team” that they are running 50/50 according to their phoning. So I suppose you split the difference, and maybe it’s around 55/45 Clegg. My instinct however is that Huhne is just in the lead. I know he lost some support over the Politics Show appearance last weekend, however.
Brown will be glad that Jackie Ashley is “back”:
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jackie_ashley/2007/11/down_but_not_out.html
LDs must elect someone who stops them being
1) Invisible
and then
2) Irrelevant
That’s it. So who is better at getting on the news and who can use those 40-60 MPs to best effect, in the commons before and after the election. And who can bring the 1000s of local councillors into a national narrative for the LDS.
Kennedy did both around the time of the Iraq vote. What are the future issues that the LD are going to influence.
Cable has put pressure on the police to launch an investigation.
Interesting post Stodge. i think you are the only LD who hasn’t declared their own voting intention yet which on here at least seems to be running in NC’s favour.
I’ve just had a call from a friend from England who is sort of ‘in the know’ and she thinks HH is on her way out. I was surprised and if it’s true then this thing is bigger than it looks from this distance and it really does spell trouble for Labour.
Icarus43 Tyson71.Dont vote Clegg he wont be there after the GE.Try the member for Orkneys who ever it is.
Anyone prepared to check him out?
http://www.enablemedia.com/500001035279
On my canvassing for Team Clegg on a sample of around 70 I had Nick Clegg ahead by 42-34 with a few not says. I am supporting Nick because I do believe he is the better media communicator. Frankly in this media driven age that is very important. Wish Julia Goldsworthy had a go though - maybe next time, which I hope is many years away!
115 - “Dont vote Clegg he wont be there after the GE”
What swing do the Tories need there?
I genuinely think the LD’s will be missing a trick not to go for Clegg. He will be the most likeable party leader that we have had for some time now.
Cameron though likeable is a Tory which undermines his likeability. Likeable and Tory are a contradiction in terms, always was, always will be.
Clegg seems and behaves like one of us, and his party looks more like joe public than the others. They have women to boot. Sorry dear Harriett, as delightful and luscious as she is, the liberal women do appear vaguley competent. Tory women just seem strange, and the attractive ones look like upper class crumpett.
So the time is right for a normal looking, straight talking, likeable party leader leading a normal looking and likeable party talking normally to the public about the things that concern them.
Clegg is almost perfect for this role. Huhne is too much of a risk.
111. That latest from Sir Jackie Ashley has the look of something rapidly pecked out on her Blackberry while she was sat on the toilet trying to get rid of last night’s curry.
117.How many undecideds, not says, anti telephone canvassers and not votings did you have? Whose constituency was this in?
118
Clegg has an 8000 majority - a 10.7% swing from LD to Tory would lose him his seat, so I reckon he’s safe in Sheffield Hallam.
Huhne has only a 586 majority - becoming party leader might save him, but the Tories and Labour will amke him a target (0.6% swing LD to Conservative would lose him his seat).
Morus
Busy news day, a man charged in the rachel nickell wimbledon common murder. That poor teacher charged over a teddy bear by religious morons and breaking news now that a preimership manager was one of the men arrested by the police today
122. Don’t you worry about Chris - his constituency workers are doing a great job. I am sure Mark Senior how well they did in the last local elections compared with other LD seats.
I think this shows what a superb top team the Lib Dems have…
97- ukPaul- I know you buy into all this tough man persona that Huhne is trying to create for himself.
Likeable is good. They use to call TB Bambi when in opposition. Clegg is perfect for the LD’s. He is charming, and the media will flock to him when they get annoyed again with Cameron and Osbourne.
A 13-point Tory lead - that’s horrifying. Tory overall majority is starting to look quite likely.
It always used to be claimed that there was a ‘floor’ for Labour of around 28%. I don’t buy this - Le Pen in france used to have a ceiling. And yet there’s something in it. It gets very very hard to dislodge anyone further after that. But it’s hard to see the Tory momentum stopping. The Lib Dems aren’t likely to fall back from where they are, leaderless and publicity-less as they are.
Cable was probably right though, that there’s too much ageism for a bid from him to have been tenable.
Catching up after the long HMRC debate - just briefly:
30/34: thanks, alex!
395 last thread - also thanks to Icarus - always nice to know someone watches these things! I won’t take up the kind invitation to join the LDs, though there are a lot of LD voters who help make up my majority, and we’re usually nice to each other. I don’t think the two parties’ voters and values in general differ all that much in outlook, and if Labour didn’t exist I’d happily join the LDs despite the familiar policy differences.
Marcus asked if I was campaigning on candidate spending before I was an MP. No, I was doing IT stuff in faraway Basel and wasn’t campaigning on anything in Britain (though I was a member of the Swiss Social Democrat economic policy commission, which must win some sort of nerdhood award). But I’ve always thought spending limits a good idea, and this has been a consensus view in Britain until recently.
Witan quizzes me on Labour spending generally and suggests I should research it for him. Pass!
“Just had a call from CCHQ. Turns out they are WRONG about Mr Waugh, who they say has nothing whatsoever to do with this whole business. Such is the frenzy.”
Ben Brogan
and he has another piece:
( http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/11/gordon-of-khart.html )
“One surefire way for Gordon Brown to draw attention from Labour’s woes would be to declare war on Sudan. Or at least send gunboats up the Nile to rescue British teacher Gillian Gibbons and her teddybear.”
Over the last few weeks, though not a LD, I have moved from absolute neutrality on the LD Leadership to actually hoping Huhne gets it. Clegg bores me - I don’t see the fire in his belly, and I don’t think he is trying hard enough to win (a complaint that could equally be levelled at the Tory shadow cabinet, except for Chris Grayling who is everywhere).
As long as Huhne doesn’t have to spend the whole GE campaign in Eastleigh, defending his seat, I think he would be a much better campaigning third-party leader.
Vince Cable has been the perfect interim leader, but he has not been attacked by the other two parties because he is precisely that. The next leader will have to be much stronger to quell the bile and invective that they will inevitably attract.
124. Should read “Mark Senior will confirm”
126 - Likeable is fine when you have power, likeable in opposition makes you look weak. Blair knew that he would be able to change that, a lib dem leader is, unfortunately, stuck with knowing that they will have next to no chance of doing the same.
Clegg will be great when he is up against someone who isn’t as similar as Cameron, as it is he will find it difficult to stop the tories gaining from the comparison.
121. Not just one constituency as I was given folks over a range of constituencies all in the Gloucestershire county. Should have done over 130 but some personal problems emerged which limited me. Had a couple who were no longer members, and perhaps six undecided.
Any way the You Gov poll should give some better idea when it is out.
To help us keep everything in perspective, The Trials of Gordon are not in the Top Five most read stories on BBC News Online. Nickell, M25, Sleep, Footy and Teddies are considered far more important.
122 - I don’t think that the Tories or Labour will target Huhne too much. The Tories have easier targets to go for - like Romsey and Meon Valley. Labour will be trying to hold on in Southampton.
Of all the Hampshire seats the LDs hold, I would say Eastleigh is the least likely to fall. Look at the local results for starters.
114 - To be fair, Roger, we have been telling you that since yesterday
135 - Imagine Huhne was leader going into a GE that many now think might be odds-on for an Hung Parliament with Tories as the biggest party. Under such circumstances, even as a contingency, would not the Tories want to overturn the measly 568 vote majority, so as to be able to negotiate a better settlement for potential coalition without a strong figurehead in the HoP?
Imagine the LDs conducting negotiations about Cabinet seats without their leader being able to take one of them! The Tories would get their coalition without the sacrifices that a strong leader would force them to make.
I cannot believe that Huhne will not be a top 5 target if he wins, and the polls are showing a
136 (con) - and in fact it’s been obvious since Peter Watt resigned. Only if you believed the nonsense spin about him being a “minor official” could you think otherwise.
137 - a less than 10% lead for the Tories over Labour.
I expect a 15% Conservative lead in polls in two weeks time.. over the LibDems. And 18% over LAbour.
Rednapp arrested apparently in the football thing from earlier, lay quick if you were on him for England manager.
123. The “Daily mail” has named the manager as Rednapp.
I’m glad to see the predicament Harman and Dromey have got themselves into.
They were so pious and superior over the cash-for-honours affair.
They deserve their cumuppence.
Putting it in terms which may resonate with some on here, last night’s hustings was a bit like going to the paddock before the start of a 2-y-o maiden.
Clegg is the choice on breeding and has apparently been burning up the gallops but he is looking round and sweating and whinneying and as green as an unripe banana. On the other hand, bags of potential, impeccable conformation and bound to improve for the experience.
Huhne is the unfashionably bred type - small but well put together. Hasn’t probably the scope to improve much on what he does on this run but he’s fit and ready to run.
If the LD leadership were a maiden open to 2-y-o of all ages, I would back Huhne but Clegg is undoubtedly going to reverse form later in the season. Unfortunately, this is a two and a half year sprint, not a four-year marathon.
133. madmacs - sorry just to be clear about this am I right that you telephoned and spoke to 70 people and only 6 told you they were undecided? How many “outs” did you call?
City of London police have come to Gordon’s rescue.
It’s almost certainly linked to the Portsmouth Manager market.
… but results do not follow the pattern you expect. Some tiny majorities become huge - Norfolk N in 2005, Kingston and Surbiton in 2001. Huhne is having an impact, I am sure. I would expect him to have one of the largest LD majorities next time round.
Huge majorities can tumble too. I think in 1987 Malcolm Bruce had the largest LD majority. It crumbled from 9,000 to 200 in 1992.
146 - Scrap that.
What really surprises me in this leadership campaign is that so few in the Liberal Democrats have apparently rumbled Huhne’s line of the being the candidate with ‘real world’ business experience.
Anyone who has worked in the City knows that the business experience he plays so heavily in speeches and at hustings involved a firm that is not even no.1 or 2 in the credit analysis/ratings niche. This business is primarily about writing reports and that’s where Huhne’s was able to apply his journalistic experience.
If a CV with such experience crossed your desk in the City, it would in no way be regarded as remarkable.
148. Harry redknapp and portsmouth chief executive peter storey among five arrested.
136. You told me it was a big deal but not that HH looks like she’s on her way out!
OT. An editor I was working with during the Colin Stagg arrest had a wife who worked for the police in their pathology department if I remember. Apparently though they were finding it hard to supply the compelling evidence the police were 100% certain he did it. Which just goes to show no one knows anything for certain.
All the indications are that Huhne is digging in well in Eastleigh.
Tyson - I’m just not convinced that there are a lot of votes in ‘niceness’. Certainly not more than there are in credibility.
The LDs need a leader who will make a splash, crreate distinctive stories etc. Huhne seems better at that - like today with the donations story.
England down from 3rd to 15th in World reading tables.
153 - so does that mean we’ll be unseeded for the next round of qualifiers?
152 - And, while most LD members have probably voted, his greater presence on people’s TV screens in the last few days may well get a few more to vote for him.
147 - Of course, and I expect that Huhne’s majority would go up.
My point was just that the Tories must surely make him a target, and that he would be wise to put the time into defending his own seat, which might restrict his duties as touring National Leader during a hectic campaign schedule.
149 - Your point is well-made, but in fairness very few MPs have an economic background and exposure to the world of business. A report looking at the background of MPs found they were disproportionately from Legal, Journalistic or Public Service backgrounds. It is a distinguishing factor, even if it does not appear particularly distinguished in that area. You cannot blame him for trying to highliight this.
Huhne is very vulnerable in Eastleigh. I don’t buy the theory that he’ll turn the seat into a fortress simply by virtue of becoming leader.
Thorpe as the new Liberal leader very nearly lost Devon North in 1970, hanging on by just 369 votes. He had a majority of 1,166 in 1966.
The next election will be similar to 1970, in that the Tories will be in some kind of upswing, and the LDs may well be in a downswing.
My estimate is Huhne will do about 5% better than the national swing, a bit bigger comfort-margin that 568 votes, but still very vulnerable….
Recent polls show Huhne convincingly losing his seat, despite this bonus…
Why did Nick not participate live in this latest “hustings” arranged by the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/7117079.stm
Does anyone else that the Conservatives are in a potentially big dilemma. It may still just be hyperbole, but we are getting close to a point where people might actually be questioning whether Brown himself might have to go.
But that might be the one thing that saves the Govt at the next election. Brown’s problem (aside from his character) is that he is intimately associated with the past so cannot offer a clean break from it. There are however other Cabinet ministers who could. And nobody who knows anything about politics would reject the possibility that such a move could dramatically revive Labour.
Did Nick Palmer go to the Broxtowe Christmas party?
http://regionalnews.bnp.org.uk/bnp-east-midlands-england-region/broxtowes-successful-christmas-social_2327.html
159-I don’t think Brown will have to go, but let’s suppose this happens. Who, in the Labour party, could represent a “clean break” from the past?
161 - Alan Johnson could easily. John Denham could.
161. Alan Johnson would be a shoe-in, imho…
160 - thanks for having me click on a BNP website. I feel sullied now!
161 “Who, in the Labour party, could represent a “clean break” from the past?”
As the biggest critic of all that has gone before - step forward Bob Marshall-Andrews!
161. Jacqui Smith.
But seriously - whenever I see him on TV, I always think that John Denham would be a fearsome opponent for the Conservatives to have to face.
166 - Gabble, I didn’t include the obvious point that they’ve also got to be capable of doing the job
Jacqui Smith may one day, but i doubt she is at the moment.
Of course the one cautionary note on this hypothetical debate would be if there was a feeling that there had to be an immediate General Election. In which case it would be Jack Straw, no clean break, and Conservative victory.
162/163-Not sure about Johnson, but Denham could be a good choice
Previous thread - Mail headline “How much worse will it get?”…
“Britain’s top taxman sent millions of parents an apology letter containing sensitive personal data.
Anti-fraud experts and police urged people to destroy the letters, which contain each claimants’ name, address, national insurance and child benefit numbers.”
…and counting
119
‘I genuinely think the LD’s will be missing a trick not to go for Clegg. He will be the most likeable party leader that we have had for some time now.’
He’s already damaged goods with members of his own party calling him calamity Clegg before he’s even been elected.
You compare him with the excellent performances both in the HoC & on TV by Vince Cable and they passed on a winner and look like electing an ultra lightweight.
165- Maybe, with him, Labour won’t be part of “Shakespearean tragedy”
166-I agree with alex(168), I don’t even know if she is going to “survive” as Home Secretary!
The story of Labour incompetence is even registering with our youth.
This week a teacher asked a my son’s class how Labour keep control of the country, some wag at the back shouted out “they don’t”!
Clegg is very safe in Sheffield Hallam , even the local Conservatives know it . Their Candidate in 2005 think he has more chance of getting elected by moving to a Labour seat with Conservatives in 3rd place needing a 12% swing .
LibDems in Eastleigh have 37 councillors the Conservatives 5 and will be down to 4 next May . This May in the locals LibDems polled 51.1% of the votes , Conservatives their lowest EVER % of 28.8% . All the evidence locally is that Chris Huhne is a popular locally first time incumbent and he will increase his majority substantially whether leader or not .
159.
A third PM would not rejuvinate Labour, not after this. It would be like applying moisturiser to a corpse.
173-LOL!
O/T
But did anyone read Stelzer’s column?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/11/28/do2804.xml
175 - that may be true. My point however, is that the Conservatives would probably rather not test that out.
And i think you’re wrong. A new government is a new government.
114
‘I’ve just had a call from a friend from England who is sort of ‘in the know’ and she thinks HH is on her way out.’
Am trying to hazard a guess where this latest inside information came from, for the French presidential elections the person ‘in the know’was the waiter in your local restuarant and your other tips have come from taxi drivers and your barber.
176 - Incredible that politicians feel that they have no hang on his every word. It’s not exactly incisive political analysis
177
They still carry forward the same problems. Do you honestly think that if a party changes PM on a ‘rota’ basis they can last a lifetime? It doesn’t work like that. On another note I see Gordon did his Ma Headroom impression again today ‘M-m-m-m-m-muster Speaker’ It should be turned into a drinking game
Rog, I think you have just been quoted on Sky News!!
http://i214.photobucket.com/albums/cc209/chrisrowlanduk/bean.jpg
I just couldn’t resist it!
181. Matthew Parris was being interviewed and the interviewer quoted from Politicalbetting, and I’m sure he said the post was from “Roger”. Did anyone else see it just to reassure me I’m not going mad?
174 Mark Senior is right about Eastleigh. Huhne has a lot in his favour and some wonderful luck.
1. a 2nd election incumbency factor (worth 1,000),
2. against a less well known Conservative candidate (1,000),
3. against a candidate that has only just moved in (1,000)
4. and finally against a Conservative Association that was taken over by CCHQ earlier this year and has been losing elections and the plot (1,000).
So the starting point is probably a 4,500 majority and then apply National poll changes since 2005! PS The previous MP Chidgey had a 3,000 majority.
179-His piece shows the dilemma that Murdoch faces, he started criticizing the government and Brown, and saying that they may be doomed to fail. But in the end, he shows that the Conservatives could lose the next election…
183 - I’ve heard the media quoting from politicalbetting before, but never from the Comments section!
BTW - this was a good (and damning) article on Gordon’s press conference yesterday.
180 Afleitch “A third PM would not rejuvinate Labour, not after this. It would be like applying moisturiser to a corpse.”
But at least it would look better on TV.
184. I’d put it closer to 3,000 - vulnerable to a 3% LD-Con swing, which is quite possible…
BTW was it Roger’s post about his “friend in the know”?
Since it’s a Vince Cable thread, did anyone else find notice this charming photo of the man that someone posted on Guido-
http://mixtogether.wordpress.com/2007/11/15/vince-cables-mixed-wedding/
As the reformed right-on comedian once said - What a lovely example of a multi-cultural society.
As a somewhat mixed raced person myself I find the website itself…well..I’m not really sure - kind of sweet.
189. I only caught a bit of it. I think it was a post saying all of the fuss about Labour donations would just “blow over”. They obviously don’t know Rog’s reputation for predictions.
Oops there goes the Ashcroft argument down the drain I think…..
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.1867045.0.labour_leader_tightlipped_on_taxexiles_donation.php
I wonder whether this one will come back and bite Gordon too?
Nick Robinson has the Mendelsohn letter to Abraham on his blog, dated the 22nd November (Thursday). Odd that everything about Abraham broke just a couple of days later, although it does not contradict Mendelsohn’s story that this was not a funding request but a ‘general meeting’ on priorities, at which he was going to bring up the arrangement.
I find Dromey’s response (”Complete concealment”) strange, and he must surely go for sheer inability to keep track of what is happening in his day job.
189 / 191. This one!
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/28/have-a-good-wednesday-mr-brown/#comment-552502
159 New PM revive Labour
Interestingly enough, the damage Gordon Brown is inflicting on Labour is priceless - so his removal could be beneficial to Labour, up to a point.
It will be minimal because, Labour have had too many chances. Ecclestone & “I’m a straight kinda guy”, Jo Moore, Mandelson, Keith Vaz, Mittal, Hindujas, Clark, Blunkett, Drayson etc etc etc.
The list is endless.
Everyone knows Labour lies. It is what they do.
Labour have had too many chances. The public gave them the chance to change. They didnt. They gave the benefit of a doubt. They let them change leader.
It isnt the Leader. It is Labour.
184 I think Huhne would also be vulnerable in Eastleigh if Labour acrually mounted an active campaign. In the last election made very little effort to motivate their voters. I hardening of their support and perhaps a fresh conservative candidate might prove unstoppable, ( I wouldnt worry about the Tory canditate being from outside Eastligh as clearly Huhne is not a local either)
http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/amendtheact/
Please sign.
196 Labour are down to 2 Councillors and 11% of the vote in Eastleigh locals this year .
193.The tone of the letter and the lack of urgency does not fit with the *concern* that he expressed.
196 Tim, Yes Labour do have a large core vote of 10,000+ but they are in an even worse shape than the Conservatives.
They keep changing their candidate so have no continuity and near zero local presence.
193 - Apologies if this has already been raised, but the first words of Mendelsohn’s letter thanks Abrahams for his message to someone called Oliver. Clearly, Abraham’s communication was viewed as sufficiently important for it to be referred directly to the PM’s Chief fund-raiser. Has its contents ever been revealed?
“My eagle-eyed colleague James Chapman has just spotted an odd bit of censorship on the Downing Street website. The transcript of yesterday’s press conference has been mysteriously edited to delete any references to the secret donations saga, with the words [party political content] substituted dozens of times. Entire questions and answers have been erased. Given that Chris Grayling has just assured Channel Four News that Mr Brown contradicted himself today, it’s intriguing.”
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/11/downing-street.html
what did Chris say to C4 exactly anyone know?
202.Just seen that post and I find this latest development incredible, as Brogan states “Downing Street censorship”?
James Forsyth on “Brown makes his stand” at the coffee house blog.
203.Test, you might be able to watch here.
204. Sounds more like ‘Custer’s Last Stand’ to me (it will take a lot longer to happen though).
[arty political content] [expletive deleted]
202,207
or
[party political content] [expletive deleted]
204-Chris-What do they intend?I really can’t get it, I can watch the press conference again how many times I want, so why this “[party political content]“.
204 Brown would appear to be losing his grip. After all he informed Cameron at PMQs that Cameron was sitting on the tory front bench in 1992 and was therefore a minister in Major’s government.
The fact that Fattersley was blustering and parading his idiocy on Channel 4 news appears to signal that everyone else is giving up on him.
210 - Yep he got a bit confused there.
Also pulled the usual Labour trick of conflating the “15% interest rates” and Black Wednesday.
Of course the issue over 15% interest rates was in the late eighties - they were 15% for about half an hour in 1992.
211 - They actually never got to 15% in 1992. The rise was cancelled before it took effect.
209.Yes, that was going to be my next question.
Anyone remember this story.
210.”After all he informed Cameron at PMQs that Cameron was sitting on the tory front bench in 1992 and was therefore a minister in Major’s government.” I noted that comment as well, but I was not surprised. Brown has a lot of form when it comes to promoting Cameron’s position in the previous Conservative government, the day that he tells us Cameron replaced Lamont for the day as chancellor on Black Wednesday might be the day that the media finally notice and comment.
212 - Oh yeah, that was it. So technically Brown misled the House today
192 - he has been unmasked
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.1867076.0.0.php
Yes, it will certainly be difficult for Clegg or Huhne when one of them takes over from the Lib Dems’ favourite chipmunk.
192. “Two blacks don’t make a white”; I learnt that from my granny when I was a wee lad.
If Wendy Alexander is in hot water about donations from tax exiles, that doesn’t make Ashcroft’s position any less disgraceful.
213- what about this:
“In his 2000 book Servants of the People the journalist Andrew Rawnsley wrote that the Chancellor “returned to the Treasury … in a red mist which staggered even those who had long endured his titanic tempers… Brown raged at his staff: ‘I lied. I lied. My credibility will be in shreds. I lied. If this gets out, I’ll be destroyed.’ ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/10/ncbell410.xml
183- it is why Roger should be pbCOM’s contributor of the year. Always incisive, entertaining, articulate and very, very intelligent. and nearly always right to boot.
Well done Roger
218 entertaining and articulate I’ll grant you but ‘nearly always right’ is a comment worthy of the great man himself.
216 - Just as a matter of interest, is there some reason why “Ashcroft’s position” is “disgraceful”, but there is no problem with say, Ronnie Cohen or Lakshmi Mittal?
Or are you making a non-party political point?
Lakshmi Mittal, of course, is the fifth richest person in the World, but has only given a mere £2million to the Labour party this year. What have they been spending it on?
203-Test, did you find what you were looking for?If not, the video:
http://www.channel4.com/player/v2/player.jsp?showId=10308
Brogan added one thing:
“PS: The No 10 website notes that “Sometimes it is necessary to edit the transcripts. This is either because in accordance with long-standing practice under the Ministerial and Civil Service codes, government websites cannot carry party political content, or because the audio quality has made it impossible to transcribe.”
220. The poster at 192 said
“Oops there goes the Ashcroft argument down the drain I think…..which is wrong.
Aschroft has been asked repeatedly about his tax returns but keeps stalling. If he was to come clean on this then maybe the questions would cease.
224 - No they wouldn’t. Ashcroft’s tax status is irrelevant to the arguments that Nick P, for example, employs. He just objects to the fact that a rich man is able to make donations to marginal seats.
218. Nice piece of arslikhan only slightly tarnished by the disagreeable fact that Roger is usually wrong about everything.
225 (con) - he doesn’t even seem to object to the Ashcroft donating lots of money. Simply the way that the Conservative Party choose to spend it within the law!
224 and perhaps you could spend some time digging into ronnie cohen’s tax status rather before worrying about donors to other parties
43 & 46
My voting record on past Lib Dem leaders
Steele,Ashdown,Kennedy,Campbell.
This time around-undecided but think Huhne will just get it.
Re Strategy major opprotiunities to be different
Only party with solution to Council tax, Fairer taxes,No tuition fees, No to nuclear power,no new runways,
And a great opprtunity as acredible opposition
Vince,Ming,Charlie,Huhne.Clegg,Hughes to name but six.
Vince in the ideal role as hugely effective shadow chancellor
Rogerh
Vin
218
I did not buy Barclays at £6 as per Roger.
It went down to a low of £4.40 afterwards..
IIRC (But I may be wrong) he also recommend N Rock.
But Roger is nearly always right.
(Dow looks out of its downtrend ditto FTSE100)
225. From the recent Guardian story on this matter
“…his current domicility is uncertain, as he and his spokesman have repeatedly declined to say where he lives, declaring it to be a private matter, with the result that it is unclear whether he pays any income tax in the UK.
The Guardian has repeatedly asked Lord Ashcroft’s spokesman to clarify the peer’s tax status, and he has repeatedly declined, on one occasion saying: “I am not going to say anything that is helpful to you one way or another on this. I am not going to confirm anything, I am not going to deny anything. This issue is completely out of bounds.” On Wednesday evening, appealing to the Guardian to delay reporting on the matter, the spokesman said: “I am conscious you are owed a proper response. If you try to buy a few more hours on this, I will try to give you a proper response.” By last night, some 48 hours later, no such response had been made.”
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,,2208695,00.html
He isn’t just “a rich man”. Other rich people involved in British politics a) make clear where they live and b) pay their taxes.
I’m not sure whether this is a criticism of deceipt or quick thinking on Huhne’s part but did anyone catch today’s daily politics? I’m quite convinced that Huhne had not written to the police at the start of the show whilst Hattersley was ranting incohertently. It’s clear that he really didn’t have anything insightful to say and I think he knew it. Thirty minutes later after PMQ he suddenly remembers the letter he sent to Blair of the yard after Andrew Neill opines that he was surprised nobody had taken that action.
230- ok,Ok Roger’s predictions have been known to be on the odd occasions just a little bit on the suspect side, but everything else is spot on.
And liverpool have a penalty. Excellent!
231 - a) and your point is? I’m not denying some people are making an issue of his tax status. What i am saying is that his tax status is irrelevant to the arguments that people like Nick Palmer use.
b) What is Ronnie Cohen’s tax status?
232. Huhne said he posted the letter yesterday evening.
224. If there was anything Labour could nail on Lord Ashcroft, don’t you think they would have done it by now?
The only reason they wouldn’t is if doing so would lead to them suffering even more damage. It seems whatever stone you overturn there is some sleazy Labour Party secret underneath. It’s systemic.
The fact is this country’s political landscape will be far better of when the Labour Party has been purged from it.
A bit of light reading, Captain Spaulding, seeing as you take an interest.
129 One surefire way for Gordon Brown to draw attention from Labour’s woes would be to declare war on Sudan. Or at least send gunboats up the Nile to rescue British teacher Gillian Gibbons and her teddybear.”
by Me November 28th, 2007 at 5:54 pm
With which ships???????????????????????????
235- to be honest I find Huhne to be on the undesirable side of politics, someone you wouldn’t particularly like to be sitting next to at a dinner party. throw in Brown, Balls, Osbourne, Fox- get my drift.
Something a bit of the sneaky, skin crawling thing going on with Huhne.
238-You should ask that to Ben Brogan!!!
239 - Wot no Cameron? Labour must be really worried they’re about to lose you Tyson
239. There really is nothing I have to say to you after a remark like that.
236: ‘If there was anything Labour could nail on Lord Ashcroft, don’t you think they would have done it by now?’
And they think it will divert people’s attention from Abrahams. It won’t.
240 more likey ask Gordo, who has cut defence spending to the quick.
likely
234. and 237. The non-domiciliary tax break is meant to be for people who have little connection with the UK. This is hard to reconcile with close involvement with the UK political process, which forbids offshore donations.
This is just as problematic for donors to Labour (as far as I am concerned) as it is for those who give to the conservatives.
But Ashcroft is very exposed because he is giving vast sums to the conservatives at the moment, is ensconced as their deputy chairman, but continues to dodge the question of what his tax status actually is.
232. I know he says that; but the fact is he had plenty of time to announce it, so why wait til Neill suggests it? It was clear that Neill didn’t expect Huhne to answer the way he did, and had not Huhne responded then, he would have missed the opportunity altogether. My suspicion is that the letter was written at aproximately 1pm today post dated 27/11/07. It will be received tomorrow. Why didn’t he release a copy of the letter? Hats off to him for quick thinking; it’s less an accusation, more like spotting the rabbit in the magician’s hat. I’m Labour by the way but can admire craftmanship or craftyness.
246. Agreed. If you are using the UK as a tax haven rather than your primary affiliated country you should not be able to participate in our political process.
246 - Ronnie Cohen is Gordon’s main financial advisor, and he refuses to say what his tax status is!
Also can you explain why someone who refuses to say what their tax status is, is more “exposed” than someone who does and confirms that they are non-domiciled?
And i repeat, Ashcroft’s tax status is irrelevant to the arguments that Nick Palmer uses, so makes a nonsense of your claim that the issue would ‘go away’ if only he revealed all. At least that doesn’t make Nick a hypocrite.
241- alex- personally I like Cameron. He is a damn sight more likeable than Brown, and many politicians.
But he has 4 major flaws;
1) public school, etonian elitist- liveable with;
2) scheming, politicking, PR, spinning, professional politician who has done nothing of use in his life (and do not give me that PR job in Carltons crap)- and surprisingly liveable with, just (who else is there in politics today?)
3) Tory- sorry not liveable with, have to draw a line somewhere
4) likes hunting and killing animals for fun- no sorry, no go area
So I utterly dislike Cameron, but he hasn’t quite got that skin crawling quality like Osbourne, Fox, and sadly Huhne.
244-I already know what he is going to answer:
We are the government that increased defence spending, and “that when we came into power the defence budget in Britain was the fifth largest in the world. It is now the second largest in the world.”
246. As to his position at Tory head office, Caroline Spelman MP is of course officially the Party Chairman to whom Ashcroft reports.
But is she the one that wears the trousers?
250 - 3) Didn’t you say your wife was a Tory?
253- no, no- my sister, and brother’s are (Tories, unfortunately), and my mum voted for Thatcher in 1979 in a fit of pique, and novelty value.
My wife is an Italian socialist- a la Andrea- not a proper socialist mind. Basically anyone with a degree in Italy is a socialist, par for the course.
I recall a picture of Gordon Brown in a suit looking just like Mr Bean. Perhaps this could be used for the next edition of bank notes as a long term reminder of how a so called “great” man has decended into the sewers.
244-I forgot one more thing:
Mr Cameron(ok, he would never be so gentleman), you were the economic adviser when we had Black Wednesday, etc etc etc
You know the end, don’t you?
235
‘Huhne said he posted the letter yesterday evening.’
What is Huhne’s position on the £2.4 million illegal donation that the Lib Dems received from Michael Brown?
Is he proposing to pay it back?
249. “At least that doesn’t make Nick a hypocrite.”
Oh this makes me so tired, I thought we’d seen an end to pathetic ad hom comments on this site.
I’m no defender of Ronnie Cohen but yes, it’s better to be honest about your tax position then endlessly dodging questions about it.
The wider question about the generous funding of conservative candidates is indeed a different argument, which I would have thought has been argued to death already. But if you want my view, the incumbency advantage is just as valuable to sitting conservative and lib dem MPs. And if an MP of **any** party fiddles his or her allowances they can be challenged. In short, the argument that the incumbency of Labour MPs justifies unlimited spending by Ashcroft is bogus rubbish.
Tyson - pretty good day for Harriet today, wouldn’t you say ? No further damage.
250 Who is “Osbourne”? Surely you don’t mean George Osborne the Shadow Chancellor?
If you do, then at least have the decency to spell his name right, old chap!
BTW, Gordon dealing with Sudan to regain some lost popularity might just work. “Gordon of Khartoum” has a ring to it!
257- why Cameron has behaved himself much better than Huhne. You cannot throw the muck like Huhne and expect to be taken seriously. Cameron and Clegg know this.
258 - I didn’t call you a hypocrite. I said that Nick wasn’t. I hadn’t formed a view on you.
It’s pleasing that you claim you take the same view on Labour donors as you do on Conservative ones. But it was you who raised the one whilst ignoring the others. I see no basis for making party political comments about Ashcroft when Labour are in exactly the same boat with their donors.
As i said the only real difference with Ashcroft is the way that the Conservatives choose to (legally) employ his money.
257. The Electoral Commision has ruled that on the evidence they have been given the LDs acted in good faith and do not consider it is necessary that the money should be returned. See:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/nailing-the-michael-brown-smear-1713.html
259 womble- i just have this horrible feeling that the nasty orrible, brooding, broon is going to eat her alive at the end. Like watching one of these Nightmare films when you think the damsel has just, just escaped the clutches of the evil pursuer, breathlessly, but yet just made it, only to find the evil protaganist is still there, alive and more dangerous than ever.
Our damsel Harriett is a victim waiting to happen. Do not let your guard down.
The Electoral Commission has shown itself completely unable to regulate donations to political parties following complete inability to prevent hundreds of thousands of voters in Scotland being disenfranchised in Scotland in May, and to prevent a postal voting system fit only to grace a “banana republic”. As it’s seems completely toothless, what exactly is the point of it?
264-How is the Harriet Harman support group?
260
““Gordon of Khartoum” has a ring to it!”
Indeed: his ticket to posterity?
“The British public reacted to his death by acclaiming ‘Gordon of Khartoum’, who had had a strong Christian faith, a martyred warrior-saint…”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/gordon_general_charles.shtml
264 Tyson - you may be right but the fact that it appears to be spreading - with Mendelsohn in the frame and now Wendy Alexander - will increase the number of different pressure points and make someone who was involved at the periphery more difficult to get rid of. Agree that he’d love to get shot of her; is reaction at the press conference yesterday spoke volumes but his stock is falling among membes, and they won’t take kindly to him elbowing out the person they elected.
Oh, to be the brave hero who can come to her dramtic rescue !
Conservativehome takes time out from discussing how useless Conservative MEPs are to bring Vince Cable’s well timed gag to life.
Gordon Bean
re 137 if Huhne lost his seat, why would that stop him accepting a cabinet post?
266- starting from a small, but resilient, and strong base (of cough…2)- but this is a movement that can only gain momentum.
The ever so delightful and luscious Dame Harman is still there, so we must be doing something right. This is a force to be reckoned with.
264 - Tyson & I tried to set up the website this morning but had to shut it down within ten minutes owing to server overload.
265 Well I’ve tried but I simply can’t think of a better way to spend £22 million per annum of taxpayer’s money.
271-LOL!!!Good luck!Keep me uptade!
274-Sorry, update!
271 Has she tapped you for £5k yet?
276 sadly she hasn’t tapped me for anything yet, but when she does, I’ll be happy to deliver.
277 Perhaps you should change the name to Womble on Tap?
274-277-I could think of no better cause to put 5k into than saving our damsel (Duchess HH). Now where is the lolly poppy lady who I can filter my dosh through without anyone else knowing?
Domicile is a matter of common law, but it has little practical consequence beyond Inheritance Tax and the validity of wills. The Inland Revenue will not usually proffer a determination while someone is alive, and hence domicile is invariably only tested in the courts after someone is deceased. There are many fascinating legal cases on domicile, probably the weirdest and most amusing is
Ramsay v Liverpool Royal Infirmary [1930] AC 588, in which a significant fortune hinged on whether a Scotsman died domiciled in England or Scotland. Much to the chagrin of his relatives, the Court of Appeal determined that although he died in Liverpool, he died domiciled in Scotland, a country he had not set foot in for 37 years….
Oooh. The plot thickens. This is a new angle.
Correction to 247; Having just listened to Huhne on R4, I don’t think he wrote the letter til tonight. His argument for the letter has been refined throughout the day.
It’s been a good day for him in the end. He was pretty much overwhelmed by Hattersley, took a chance when asked a direct question by Neill, then took a tour of studios (dropping in unannounced on R5) and now he takes a prime postion on the R4 news. He’d have looked a little less statesman like if he’d answered honestly “That’s a good idea Mr Neill, I’ll go and write the letter now”. I’ve still not seen a copy of the letter but good luck to him.
How long before the Israeli conspiracy theories start running?
Just an aside- why would anyone in their right mind give any money to a political party? Why? It just doesn’t make sense!
284 - Do you mean altruistically give any money to a political party?
281. I suspected as much. We may find the trail leads not to a person, but to a “state” or “state organisation”, whose motto is “By way of deception shalt thou make war”
283- it was bit like watching “All the president’s men” last night. This story is great for our conspiratory theorists.
Rovers 0-3 Villa, Brilliant!
Yes. Why would you? There are a million good causes out there, and political parties just ain’t one of them.
Superb one-liner from Vince Cable at PMQ’s and just watch the Mr Bean dvd’s fly off the shelves.
I shall do my utmost to persuade Mr Bean’s record label to re-release “I want to be elected”.
An absolute cert to be Xmas number 1 with the airplay assured.
288 - 0-4, PfP
289 - I think you’ve answered your own question
Of course, bear in mind that some of the donors aren’t giving away anything other than pocket money.
Has anyone ever seen a more static top lift than Vince Cable? It’s like a ventriloquists dummy
*top lip
O/T, but why is Chris Grayling the go-to Tory for this latest mess?
295 - it’s his job. It allows the Conservatives to ask politically damaging questions, and put allegations whilst keeping the leadership’s hands clean.
Why always him, though? It’s not particularly related to his department.
Last week’s scandals continue to rumble on
Late in the day, I know, but unfortunately some of us have real jobs that prevent us from swanning around message boards all day and scanning the news - sorry ‘media monitoring’ - so can I deviate back to Mike’s spi…sorry article for a second.
Mike posed a question, which if I can summarise, is ‘will Cable’s well received performances make the new leader (Nichris Clegghuhne as ‘he’ seems to be on the way to becoming)’s job harder?’ This, unfortunately is ‘mediocracy’ logic - i.e. raise expectations and necessarily bad outcomes will follow, lower them and the result will necessarily look good. Ergo ‘good temp leader leads to pressure on new leader = troubled times ahead’.
But another way of looking at Cable’s brief regency is that in a few short weeks he has done what Campbell was supposed to have done over 3 to 5 years. i.e. ’steadied the ship’, given the Liberal Democrats more credibility and make the media take notice of them as the bigger parliamentary (and therefore political) force that they became after the last GE.
Away from the spin and knockabout of politics both the other parties know that the Liberal Democrats are now a different animal than they were even 10 years ago. One in ten MPs shuffling around the Commons still makes them a smaller party than the other two, but it makes them a great deal harder to ignore than the one in thirty or so that they had got used to dealing with in the post war era.
Campbell for his part did recognise this (and I think did genuinely want to exploit this) but ironically coming from the one in thirty era was simply not equipped to deal with the real reason he failed - that now the Lib Dems are worth gunning for because they do have the potential to hurt as well as be hurt. So he took up the temporary role at the same time as going for the permanent role, hoping that like some of his predecessors he could quietly slip into the position and gradually make a name for himself.
But what he really needed was someone who could take on the role that Cable is playing for Clegghuhne. A shield. Someone who will genuinely hold the fort, keep things ticking over, but who is somewhat free from criticism as everyone knows that in the long term it will all be forgotten about. Surely, Mike’s question could equally have been ‘has Cable’s successful sojourn given the new Lib Dem leader just the platform he needed to generate success?’
297 - he’s the shadow Secretary of State for Government Scandals.
300 It must be a full time job now !!!
Hunt for ‘mystery benefactor’ in Labour’s illegal donations scandal
Fears are growing that David Abrahams was a front for a mystery benefactor.
If the investigation or scandal heads off in this direction, Game over for Labour!
Mr Abrahams is described by friends as a “secretive” person who spends little money on himself but likes to rub shoulders with the great and the good at political and charity events.
Last year he was pictured shaking hands with the then Israeli ambassador, Zvi Heifetz, who was questioned then cleared over money-laundering allegations. Mr Heifetz was recently appointed as an adviser to Mr Blair in his role as Middle East peace envoy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml…/nbrown2228.xml
This is getting deeper and deeper into very dangerous territory.
286 Pretty sensational if it were true.
I’ll bet the trail leads closer to Moss Side than Mossad, though.
303 - Yep. Robert Harris’ latest book is looking less like a fictional thriller though
Nothing to do with the subject, but CNN will be brodcasting the Republican debate…
I’ve just been taking a look through the recent PB.com archives and came across the following thread headline of 25 September, incredibly just 9 short weeks ago:
A YouGov poll for Channel Four news taken in the immediate aftermath of of Brown’s conference speech gives Labour an amazing 44% share with the Lib Dems down to 13%.
These are the shares with the changes on the last poll from the internet pollster - CON 33% (nc): LAB 44% (+5): LD 13% (-3).
303. “The world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those who are not behind the scenes.”, Benjamin Disraeli, ‘Coningsby’, 1844
“Hunt for ‘mystery benefactor’ in Labour’s illegal donations scandal
Fears are growing that David Abrahams was a front for a mystery benefactor.”
George Soros has pumped an awful lot of cash into MoveOn.org, etc.
I wonder…
263
I thought the Michael Brown donation was the subject of a police enquiry as to whether it was his to give?
307 Touche!
“What should frighten his party most is this: his opponents no longer fear him one little bit.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/11/29/do2903.xml
“Mr Brown still has time to change. The question is: does he have it in him to change?”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/11/29/dl2901.xml
What would happen if the “mystery benefactor” was someone very dodgy or even a criminal? Would Labour have to resign and call an immediate election? Or would they be able to brazen it out until 2010 as oiginally planned?
Wonder if Abrahams knew Bob Maxwell…
Sorry. Shouldn’t encourage people
312 - Yes lets av the immediate election!
313. *Everyone* knew Captain Bob. That’s why he had to take that prolonged swim….
Con gain everything
312. “What would happen if the “mystery benefactor” was someone very dodgy or even a criminal?”
We’ll have no ‘Anti-Semitism’ around here, thank-you!
The Sun has a “supportive” editorial, and now I’m sure that Dacre is back!But both of them agree that Brown must do something, because things seems to be out of control
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/newscomment.html?in_article_id=496859&in_page_id=1787&in_a_source=
Given the speculation that is being let loose, a mere criminal would probably be cause for relief!
When are the press going to start focussing on the Labour party pre-Watt - and return to Lord Levy? This is something that in their excitement has been thus far almost completely neglected. The people who were responsible for setting up these ‘arrangements’ in the first place?
Yes your right if there are prosecutions they should include anyone who knew what was going on and behaved illegally not just those left holding the envelopes full of cash when the music stopped.
And do we know the cause of the Mendelsohn/Abrahams falling out over the Labour Friends of Israel?
319. What is the speculation about this mystery person thats been supplying Labour with money? I haven’t been around today to follow all the rumours.
184 re Chris Huhne’s majority: you’re broadly right.
1) He is not David Chidgey.
2) The Tory organisation is weaker (weaker candidate etc) and not going to get as much bang for its megabuck as last time.
3) Incumbency factor
4) Obvious squeeze on Labour.
The CCHQ point is interesting: makes the Tories look in a Reading West-scale shambles! Lib Dem hold with increased majority a safe bet - and a spread bet if you could get one. (Not that I know about these things)
322 I think they have arisen following doubts about Abrahams’ real wealth.
322 - see Telegragh front page. We’ve embellished it a bit i’m afraid.
324 - yep. That he is wealthy is not in doubt. But when compared with other donors, the scale of support he has given suggests a many multi millionaire at least.
Alan Duncan MP
Caroline Flint MP
Sarah Teather MP
Nigel Farrage MEP
Paul Myners
Question Time tomorrow night
I think I read in yesterday’s telegraph that Abrahams may have other private sources, but if there is someone behind this, I’m not sure that we will discover who this person is.
LOL! Well reading the Telegraph doesn’t shed much light on who the mystery benefactor might be. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
327. I pity the poor person thats got a appeat on QT for Labour with all this going on. With this weeks scandels its been quietly forgotten, but the disks containing the personal details for 25 million people still haven’t turned up, either.
327 A pretty uninspiring bunch to dicuss a pretty exciting week.
267. ole Wretchard had an interesting take on G Gordon recently viz in this day and age he’d have been an eco-warrior.
http://fallbackbelmont.blogspot.com/2007/11/into-sudan-weekend-history-post.html
When was the last time Gordon Brown appeared on Question Time? For some reason he never goes on that programme, and I’ve noticed recently they are having a job to attract many seniour cabinet ministers recently?
After an interminable delay (considering an election had been planned and abandoned) and having no direct dealings with the huge donor (which he’s admitted knowing about), Mendelsohn suddenly wrote his letter on Thursday. Amazing coincidence that it’s just before the story hit the newspapers, eh? Even if I accept that there was no/little contact between fundraisers/Labour officials and Abrahams (gulp, tough to swallow), I don’t think this letter just happened. I guess Abrahams and Labour realised that the Mail were sniffing round and had got to the builder and Janet Kidd, and, of course, Mendelsohn wrote his letter, intending to put off Labour’s huge donor, without telling Gordon Brown who knew nothing about this huge donor until Saturday evening and, certainly, knew absolutely nothing about him in October or September. Help, nurse!
The Independent “robbed” my idea!!!!
New game in the Labour party- who gets the blame?
by Me November 27th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
PS: I was looking for this “quote”, and I posted on the other thread!!
Re 281, Alex, Ouch. That could be really bad.
Is everybody sleeping?
Zzzzzzzzzzzz
Revealed today: how Nixon was bamboozled into accepting the Israeli bomb, probably STOLEN from the US…
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/28/washington/29nixon.html?hp
Also…
The papers also allude to a campaign by friends of W. Mark Felt, who was then the second-ranking F.B.I. official, to have him succeed J. Edgar Hoover as director of the bureau in 1972. President Nixon, of course, did not take the advice, choosing L. Patrick Gray instead, and Mr. Felt later became the famous anonymous source “Deep Throat,” whose Watergate-scandal revelations helped to topple the president….
It’s all a conspiracy “theory”, I tell ya!
337-LOL!Happy that someone is not sleeping!
12 - Dave Anderson, hmmmm. One of my erstwhile fellow Unisonistas. Methinks his loyalty to his party is stronger than his loyalty to his union or his fellow citizens. Let’s see.
As for Vince, he is a star and no mistake. But I doubt he would have been able to translate that into leadership. We forget at our peril. Leadership is more than PMQs et al, a leader must be able to command the respect of the parliamentary party, the activists…….the country. No mean feat.
Is someone watching the debate?
Brown officially seen as “in crisis” by the world! Yesterday’s PMQs exchange - including both Cameron’s and Cable’s lines - have made the television here in Singapore under a “Brown under fire for corruption” headline. They love a bit of excitement here as Qs of any sort are usually banned. Very risque.
341
Michelle Malkin is live blogging.
http://michellemalkin.com/
Though I’m off to bed. The debates haven’t been all that interesting to date.
343-Thanks!I’m watching!
BTW, I have dubbed the scandal “Donorgate”.
Anyone else got any better ideas?
(BTW, there is also an article on my blog..:) )
And i am off to bed, g’night!
Well you’ve all gone to bed by the time I’ve checked in. Ah well. No problem. It is late. I’ll just have a glance at the evening sports results before turning in. Ho hum. Now where’s the newspaper.
What’s this?
Blackburn 0 Villa 4.
Rejoice!
Can I (or we?) have a new thread?
Mike could you post this in the other thread?
First, the Republican debate
O/T- About the Republican debate, it started with a fight about immigration between Giuliani and Romney (nothing that I saw again during the debate). Giuliani was good but not brilliant, the same with Romney. McCain had some good lines, he was good when he talked about Iraq and torture. Mike Huckabee was very good, he can be funny and serious at the same time, I can see his campaign gaining more attention. All of them seem to be trying to answer the same question: “Who is more conservative?”. It’s easy to see the winner in the Democratic debate, but I can’t see one winner in this debate!!!!
Second-I know I have already said, but I need to repeat. The Independent “robbed” my idea!!!(just look at their front page)
“New game in the Labour party- who gets the blame?
by Me November 27th, 2007 at 6:02 pm”
104. Stuff the Labour Party constitution; HaHa will be sacked if necessary anyway.
184. What about the “long term gradually recovering from a by-election result” factor? About -2000 perhaps?
The person who first likened Gordon Brown to Mr Bean is Leo McKinstry in an interesting piece of analysis in the Daily Express on 19 November. This is the link:
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/25661/PM-a-cross-between-Mr-Bean-and-Nixon-