Has Cameron set a trap for the new Lib Dem leader?
December 16th, 2007
Should the LDs now work with the 45% Tories to fight Brown?
On the day of the best Tory poll figures for 15 years and only two days before the Lib Dems get their new leader there’s an audacious move by Cameron which could prove problematic for Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne.
For in an initiative calculated to put the new leader on the spot immediately Cameron has offered to join forces with the third party to forge a “new progressive alliance’ to challenge Gordon Brown.”
The offer comes in an article by the Tory leader on his website in which he says “I’ve always believed that political parties, even though they may have serious disagreements over many aspects of policy, should work together in areas where they agree..So I hope than in 2008 the Liberal Democrats and the Green party will join us in putting pressure on the government to decentralise power, and that together we can create a new progressive alliance to decentralise British politics.”
This is quite challenging for the Lib Dems. If they rule it out of hand then immediately Cameron can portray them as being ready to prop up Labour as its popularity moves into a steep decline. But accepting the Cameron plan, even by only a token, could play havoc with the new leader’s relationship with the membership and the activist base.
The question of “which side are you really on” is one that the Lib Dems always have to find ways of avoiding an answer. Cameron’s move appears to have been designed them on the spot.
The YouGov data table from today’s poll sets out a lot of the problem - for it shows that even after everything that Labour has gone through in recent weeks Lib Dem supporters are more inclined to favour Brown over Cameron.
Cameron’s objective is, surely, to make sure that 2005 Lib Dem voters, who now say that they support his party will not drift back with the new leadership.
Mike Smithson
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Is it just me or does Brown look seriously unwell - he’s just not going to make it is he?
1 By that, I mean, of course, as an effective Prime Minister. I certainly wouldn’t wish him other than a long and happy retirement.
“Will the real Mr Brown please sit down?”
“This means that on all the issues that will decide whether or not the Brown Government can get itself out of its troubles, everything depends on the Prime Minister not being himself.”
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/john_rentoul/article3255615.ece
How long before Blair extracts the perfect revenge and really puts the boot in? If he’s ever intent on doing so, now would be about the right time.
It will be interesting to see whether Betfair decide to open a real “Brown Weeks” market, instead of their completely and confusingly mis-named existing market, which instead relates purely to the length of this Parliament from the date of Brown becoming Prime Minister, irrespective of how long he actually remains in that position.
A “new progressive alliance” could also prove an attractive idea to those former Tories who signed up for Labour’s middle class of 97-01-05. They didn’t like Michael Howard but are now finding Brown distinctly unappealling. A Worthy Notion would give them a moral fig-leaf behind which to hide their return to “the Nasty Party” - a decision which, of course, will have nothing to do with their own self-interest in seeing “the value of my property falling, pension inadequate these days, have to work until I’m ninety, drawing in of horns, tightening of belts, life not as good as it was under that man Blair - now there was a politician….”
No self-interest at work at all, no sirree, it is all for the greater good , they are being persuaded to vote “for that chap Cameron - seems to have a few ideas, progressive alliance, for the good of the country, protecting our heritage, for the good of the children, IHT reduction, pay too much in taxes already, what has it been spent on, vote Liberal Democrat? what is the point - who is their leader this week?…”
2 It strikes me that losing power would hit Brown a lot more than it did even Mrs Thatcher - both are/were workaholics, hated taking holidays but she could bask at least in the sunshine provided by her US fan club. I doubt the world’s politicians would be trying to find him a purpose; academia beckons perhaps. But having reached the summit it will be hard for him to gracefully accept forced retirement.
Though if he changed his lifestyle and looked at his blessings as they say - Gordon would have young sons to spend time with and could spend more time in his intellectual pursuits.
Huhne seems to have already dismissed it - bad politics as it would be better to say “we will look at specific proposals from Cameron and if these enable/support Liberal Democrat policies then of course we will look at co-operation, however in the past….”
Make Cameron the suitor and you get the upper hand.
Framed as a choice between working with the Conservatives or not I can see how it troubles the Lib Dems but I think they’ll just skip the question by saying it’s a non-issue like Ted (7) points out.
If Cameron can narrow it down to certain positions though it could prove tricky for the Lib Dems. Get them to support the government on unpopular issues and the Conservatives look like the party most in touch with the public.
The 45% mark for the Tories means that for every 10 people who voted for them in 2005, four more “newbies” have sided with them since. But I have real problems believing the converse for Labour - that 9 out of 10 of those who people voted for Labour in 2005 - despite their dreadful woes of late - are still standing by them. In the past three months, I haven’t met anyone - literally, not a soul - who has a good word to say for this Government. And as its figurehead, Brown is universally reviled and ridiculed, the lightning conductor for every single fault in this country today. Anecdotal tosh maybe, but it is what I find.
So - I still expect Labour to crash a good deal further yet. A poll sub-29% gets them to a point where 2 in 10 of their 2005 voters have turned their back on them. That feels closer to my current straws-in-the-wind entrail-reading political world today.
So - cats and dogs time. I think that Labour will poll 28.99% or less in a respected published poll (Smithson adjudicated) by 31st March 2008. Anyone prepared to donate £10 to the Broxtowe doggies if I’m right? A tenner to your preferred puss party if I’m wrong.
A few commments from Singapore on much of yesterday’s discussion:
1. SBS - all party leaderships are going to spin any line they can about bad polling results. However I don’t think you would have found any serious contributor to this site arguing that the Sunderland local election results were actually disproving the polling of the Brown Bounce.
2. Mark Senior (and your alter-ego, Reflecting) - Surely it is intuitive that local election results give very little indication about national sentiment? They can turn on any number of local factors and often involve numbers of votes fewer than a newspaper poll. You have constantly tried to bring up these results in your favour but it is well established that national polls still see people voting Conservative more than in one-off by-elections. I simply point out to you once again (and on each previous time you have ignored it) that at the last three nation-wide electoral contests in 2005, 2006 and 2007, the Tories made net gains from the Lib Dems. So how do you reconcile that with all your local swings?
3. On the ongoing Northern Rock debacle, it has struck me how cynically Labour attempted to manipulate the stories of Virgin “winning” the bid all those weeks ago when in fact, the way that Goldmans have now been brought on-board indicate that there was never any close prospect of NR being wrapped up at the time. Yet the government, possibly out of optimism, sold the story at the time as being a done deal.
4. Nick Palmer - Further back on the personal attack strategy issue, surely you are not saying that the Labour strategy which came up with such lines as:
“Weak, weak, weak”
“I lead my party; he follows his”
“There are two Conservative parties fighting this election, and John Major is in charge of neither of them”
was not a strategy of highly personalised attack? The Labour strategy was designed to undermine a leader whom they knew, according to the polls, still had a little electoral upside left in him (compared to his party). Or are you claiming this wasn’t a concertned strategy, just a co-incidence? In which case I give the Brown / Mandelson team far too much credit!
9. Surely the way to read these polls is about separating out the core vote strands from the floating vote strands?
If we assume that Labour’s 43% of the vote in 1997 comprised (in a very rough and ready way) something like a 32% core vote + 11% swing / moderate Tory vote, then we can see the evolution since. I would say in 2005, Blair’s hold on the swing / Tory vote, who were not as anti-Iraq as the rhetorical left, probably held up relatively well, let’s say at 9% taking into account a 2% swing back to the Tories. This means that the “core” vote shrank to 27% as 5% of the more animated lefties rushed into the comforting arms of the Lib Dems. It is quite plausible to see Cameron eat into the 9% of swing voters whilst the 5% temporary leavers came back, holding up the vote for Labour? These purely hypothetical made-up figures would explain a vote share of 32% Labour and 41% Tory - perhaps the remaining Tory votes being those inspired to vote again for the first time since 1992, adding another few percentage points?
All fun and games!
10 Anatole “it has struck me how cynically Labour attempted to manipulate the stories of Virgin “winning” the bid”
…and thereby created a false market in the shares, which promptly rose to £1.20. They closed on Friday at 92p, having lost nearly a quarter of their value as those optimitic stories have been denuded and downgraded.
The Times had already said there was a false market in the shares in late October and called for share dealing to be suspended - well before the manipulation of the stores about the preferred Virgin bid in late November.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article2752059.ece
9 - I think you’ve got to remember that in 2005 Labour lost a large number of, probably one-off, ‘protest voters’, to the Libdems. ie. they lost a large chunk of what would normally be considered as their “core vote”. It is in the context of these people returning (which Lib Dem performance suggests they have) that the polls should be judged.
On the one hand it shows the polls are a lot worse for Labour than a analysis such as yours would suggest. On a positive note for Labour it keeps alive the possibility that a recovery to ‘2005 levels’ (which they have to believe is possible) will have them doing far better than 36% of the vote.
11 - you got there first!
On the subject thread, I think Huhne’s impulsive kneejerk response shows why the Lib Dems have to pick Clegg. Huhne engages his mouth before his brain.
It is absolutely crucial for the LibDems future that they decide why they have been successful in the last few years. In particular have they benefitted from anti-Tory sentiment, or from anti-the last Tory govt sentiment. It is of course very tempting to dismiss either notion and say that they have benefited from carving out distictive positions in their own right, but I think that would be a big mistake. One of the fundamental principles behind FPTP is that it about the electorate forming a judgement on the Govt, and deciding if they want the main alternative to replace them. Once the tide is against the one and in favour of the other it will be highly risky for the LibDems to be floating about in the middle.
On the subject thread, I think Huhne’s impulsive kneejerk response shows why the Lib Dems have to pick Clegg. Huhne engages his mouth before his brain.
It is absolutely crucial for the LibDems future that they decide why they have been successful in the last few years. In particular have they benefitted from anti-Tory sentiment, or from anti-the last Tory govt sentiment. It is of course very tempting to dismiss either notion and say that they have benefited from carving out distictive positions in their own right, but I think that would be a big mistake. One of the fundamental principles behind FPTP is that it about the electorate forming a judgement on the Govt, and deciding if they want the main alternative to replace them. Once the tide is against the one and in favour of the other it will be highly risky for the LibDems to be floating about in the middle.
11 Your 27% figure is backed up in last ICM - 75% of people who voted Labour last time say they will vote for them this time this time (75% of 36% -GB not UK as in poll- equals 27%). Only 7% of LibDem voters last time say they would vote Labour now though = 2% rather than 5%.
Small samples so errors higher but pattern of changes in voting based on respondents who voted in 2005 over beginning and end of 2007, excluding Brown bounce, show much same pattern. Almost all 2005 Conservative voters would vote Tory, around three quarters of Labour voters would vote Labour but only two thirds of Lib Dems would still vote Lib Dem.
Most Lib Dem losses are to Tories by 2:1 or more in Tories favour, most Labour losses to Tories but still significant losses to LDs outweighing gains from them.
It appears
that Branson couldn’t have immediately taken the helm of Northern Rock after all.
Why are we surprised with the polls? The following figures is from an article by our Host in December 2006 looking at the Yougov forced question on Brown Vs Cameron.
OCT 2006 CON 46: LAB 33 (CON +13)
NOV 2006 CON 43: LAB 34 (CON +9)
DEC 2006 CON 45: LAB 32 (CON +13)
During the Brown honeymoon this summer, doubt was cast on the usefulness of the question of asking voters a theoretical question. It actually looks to have been a good forecast once the honeymoon period was over.
In broad terms those polls were forecasting (compared to Blair vs Cameron)
1. A switch of votes from Lab to Con.
2. A loss of votes from LDs to Lab (anti-Iraq war voters returning)
3. LDs ending up lower.
Therefore (compared to Blair vs Cameron) we end up with C UP, Lab a bit down and LDs down.
Labour MP’s going off on their Xmas break will be mulling over this poll, it could have a crucial effect on their behaviour.
They may be wondering, if a fresh face wouldn’t be a bad idea. Although going on past behaviour, Labour has never had the stomach for the quick stab-in-the-back favoured by the Tories.
Government’s in the past have gone through this sort of period and recovered, although the present government, being in its third term, that is unlikely. Brown will always regret not calling that GE, better losing than a slow painful death.
David W, as Vince said in the debate last Thursday.
15 I’m with Alex.
Actually I don’t think even LibDem activists would have any trouble working with the Conservatives to decentralise power. Based on the activists that spring to mind as being knee-jerk anti-Tories I think even they would be delighted.
Now if Cameron started to talk about electoral reform they’d be eating out of his hand. He won’t do that though because at heart he isn’t a reformer at all (sticks neck out).
Re today’s article (another thought provoking one from Mike). In the 90s the largest block of available votes were the anti-Tory ones. From 2003 there were more anti-Labour votes available which the LDs scooped some up, but only some.
However, the LDs main strategy at GE2005 was the infamous decapitation strategy on the main opposition shadow cabinet. It failed and they squandered resources which should have been focused on cutting into Labour.
In 2007 and 2008 the largest block of available votes are going to be the former Labour ones disenchanted with Blair and now Brown who have turned anti-Labour.
Instead we have the Lib Dems wasting valuable “media space” attacking the Conservatives almost as much as they attack Labour. It was the wrong strategy in 2005 and yet they have not learnt that lesson as we enter 2008.
The 3rd party only has limited air time. Vince has used it well in going after Brown. But his party and the 2 contenders seem rooted in the political tactics of the 1990s.
Hey ho, another round of LibDem love-bombing: Mark S, Tressage, Dan, are you there, my sweeties.
Certainly a trap. Clegg beware. However, didn’t Blair set a trap for Ashdown? Yes, the LDs were let down badly by Blair (and you may say Ashdown too), but we got a huge dividend in seats…
But it is not all about seats. I think Clegg will need to be cautious on this. There are areas where the LDs will be willing to co-operate with the Tories. But didn’t the Tories pull out of some environmental co-operation with the LDs this year?
So the answer is that “there is scope for working together, provided the Tories show they are serious.” This is code for providing the Tories follow a LD lead. As a result, there will of course be no co-operation.
Polly predicts that the economic down turn will not be bad next year on “The Sunday Programme”.
Well, that’s alright then.
25 While Cameron Love-Bombs the Lib Dem voters we have Re-Launch 13 “Dog Whistling on Immigration”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7146527.stm
whatever happened to announcements in Parliament first? Sorry, I forgot, that was the story line in Re-Launch One.
24: John O, afraid it looks like I’m the best you get this morning, a poor substitute, I know….
I see it the same as Jon at 22. Neither leadership contender has shown any instinct to jump into bed with the Tories, particularly Clegg, although it looks like Huhne has jumped onto the story faster. However if issue by issue the Tories want to work with us, fine. Think of the press releases: ‘We welcome the Tories’ change of heart to agree with what we have been saying for years, are glad that our arguments have persuaded them and although there is much we disagree on, the Government is further isolated from mainstream opinion over this issue.’
Clever trick by Cameron, to put the new leader on the spot straight away, but the LDs are a distinctive party from the other two in so many ways and the activist base wouldn’t stand for anything else.
By 2010, you will have voters who were hardly even born in 1992. They will have no memory of the Tory incompetence on the economy, and they may be unwilling to take their parents’ word for such matters.
“By 2010, you will have voters who were hardly even born in 1992.”
As in half in, half out?
30 -
- it depends on the length of labour endured.
6 Ted
“Academia”? You are kidding, right? Apart from politics the only jobs Brown has managed to hold down, briefly, were as a lecturer at a technical college, and as a “journalist” at STV - ie as a Labour propagandist given a cushy backhander from cronies like Gus (now Lord) MacDonald. Cash is not the only favour that can purchase Labourites an honour you know.
31 - thanks for reminding me to congratulate Grandpa Smithson from last night. LDs take Bedford December 2025!
28
“Clever trick by Cameron, to put the new leader on the spot straight away, but the LDs are a distinctive party from the other two in so many ways and the activist base wouldn’t stand for anything else. ”
If so, then the activist base is going to ensure the LDs are going nowhere.
In politics - as elesewhere - people love winners.
The Labour Party is led by a loser. (Well so far at least).
The Conservative activists supported IDS. The olf Labour ones supported Michael Foot.
So basing your stratgy on appealing to your activists may be internally popular - but will not win floating voters.
If the LDs have not learned that lesson by now, and their new Leader does not… then he is the wrong one. And they are doomed. Doomed I say. Doomed.
33 - does that mean barry loses his seat in 2005?
35 - meant 2025…
The Tories on a 6% lead on male voters and a 20% lead among women. (I know it could just be a quirk of the polling.)
Women far more likely to say don’t know on whether Gordon or Cameron are doing a good job. How much of this shift in the polls is down to charisma and perceptions based on current newsflow. It may be a signal how soft the Tory lead is.
OT but according to the Sunday Times, Labour in Scotland is in more bother…..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3056768.ece
37 - the Tory lead is still very soft. Just as Gordon’s lead was. As is the LD vote when it reaches the mid twenties.
34: I wonder what will happen if their new leader doesn’t get a poll boost and they stay at their present levels. They can’t get another leader so what are their options?
Can anyone explain to me what appears to me to be an anomaly in the final column? The Tory lead amongst women is 20% (only 6% amongst men), so you’d expect the approval of Cameron to be higher amongst women than men. However, it isn’t - 55% of men approve of him, but only 49% of women.
Is this just the old “sub-set”/”sampling error” thingy, or is there a real significance here?
39 With Gordo at the helm of Labour and with that cabinet, I would venture to suggest that far from being soft, one begins to wonder how Labour could claw such a lead back. Change of PM might help a bit, but noone else IMHO would cut the mustard, not that Gordo does either.
There are always “events dear boy events” but thats far more dangerous for Labour methinks.
39 - Can i finesse? The Conservative lead may be “soft” in the sense that it is made up of people who are “soft/floating” voters, who claim that they have not made a final decision on Conservatives/Cameron.
But on the other hand it is not at all clear that the Labour deficit is in any sense “soft”. Hence the Conservatives are rapidly becoming the default Govt of choice - when that point is reached it’s probably curtains for Gordon. The default Govt of course is the one elected when people don’t really know, or aren’t particularly happy with any of them.
‘the activist base is going to ensure the LDs are going nowhere.’
Yes, but they will be much happier that way.
43 Interesting point Alex, Curtains for Gordon.. means DC can start measuring for them??
Seriously though, the tipping point must be very close, at what stage do Labour MP’s start going native to try and protect their majority, and the whips perforce lose control?
25 - Actually this is an interesting debate, SBS. From those who view “success” primarily as (parliamentary) electoral success it is astonishing that Ashdown’s private deals with Blair are considered anything other than A VERY GOOD THING FOR THE LIB DEMS.
I guess the ‘problem’ within the LibDems is that they are so used to their apparent electoral success not translating into seats is that they remain unsure as to whether it is more important that they gain seats or have their policies implemented (we can debate how far Blair did actually go in implementing LibDem policies - probably further than the critics credit).
In the major parties they don’t have this dilemma - seats are more important because they are the prerequisite to enacting their policies. (in fact in some ways the LibDem dilemma outlined is shown best by how many in the Conservative Party reacted when it appeared that power was but a distant prospect - the more distant power seems, the stronger the ideological factions become). Would the Conservatives have even been so subservient in the run up to the Iraq war (even if they would have ultimately supported it) had they got so confused about these matters?
John Rentoul’s artlcle in the Independent is simply devastating for Gordon Brown. Rentoul is a Labour man, through and through and has good contacts at the top of the Party. In describing Brown’s deep personal inadequacies so convincingly Rentoul is reflecting the private opinions of many senior Labour figures - and driving yet another nail into the coffin.
John Rentoul is an arch Blairite through and through, not an impartial commentator within the Labour Party.
Interesting story here - that the government haven’t a clue how important financial sector reform is, is perhaps no surprise. Nor is the ‘demoralisation’ of Brown and Darling that is reported a huge shock, given recent polls.
What is striking is that the BoE now feels confident enough about Labour’s chronic weakness to brief heavily against them. What a turnaround from a couple of months ago, when the Labour lie machine was trying so hard to pin the blame for the Northern Rock debacle on King & Co.
This really is a lame duck administration.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3056690.ece
41 Innocent Abroad “Can anyone explain to me what appears to me to be an anomaly…… Tory lead amongst women is 20% …(yet) 55% of men approve of him, but only 49% of women. …. is there a real significance here?”
Simply one of life’s true facts. More women cannot make their mind up.
21 vs 9 Men
(claims the M.C.P. award)!
45 - of course the other dangerous “tipping point” is when the public start to identify with Conservative positions (perhaps as part of the ‘default govt’ process). At that point Conservative ‘policies’ become a clear strength and Labour has to rewrite its campaigning playbook from scratch. Since 1997 Labour strategy in Govt for attacking the Conservatives has been to attempt to broadcast ‘alleged’ Conservative policies and intentions far and wide. But if you reach a point where those intentions match the general feelings of the public, then such a strategy just acts as a Conservative campaigning tool, and saving them a lot of money in the process. Imagine, both main parties campaigning for a Conservative Govt. It would be a landslide!
[50] I was going to draw attention to that myself, but thought better of it ;).
One implication might be that the Tories are attracting women in spite of Cameron, rather than because of him. But I can’t make any sense of that, myself.
52 - Maybe it’s because he’s already happily married?
Innocent at 41: there is a somewhat larger group of women than men who don’t follow politics closely (e.g. 21% have no opinion on whether Cameron is doing well, and 13% have no opinion on Brown). They’ll still probably reply to a voting intention question, but won’t necessarily have an opinion on details. This type of voter (male and female) tends to switch more readily in accordance with current headlines, so at the moment you’d expect them to be strongly Tory. The problem is that they tend not to vote at all; the group shows up most strongly with YouGov, who don’t weight for certainty to vote. It’s a bit puzzling that people in this group, of either gender, bother to sign up with YouGov!
That said, there are morale problems among Labour voters at the moment, for obvious reasons, so I’d think that YouGov’s not weighting for certainty is showing Labour’s share as higher than ComRes (which only counts certain-to-votes) would. But certainty to vote is, ironically, one of the most uncertain things in polling, and changes far more rapidly than party allegiance.
Anatole at 10: The one-liners you quote are all from PMQ exchanges, I think? Labour’s strategy in 1995-7 was multi-stranded and attacking Major was not a leading element in the campaign in the country. One of the revealing bits of yesterday’s thread is that, while many Tories thought that it was OK to base their current effort almost entirely on attacking Brown, or that Labour had been just as bad, nobody actually denied that it’s what they’re doing.
“The YouGov data table from today’s poll sets out a lot of the problem - for it shows that even after everything that Labour has gone through in recent weeks Lib Dem supporters are more inclined to favour Brown over Cameron.” - This would hardly be surprising if we take YouGov (and I don’t) at face value then Cameron has pinched 9% of Lib Dem support from 2005. This would clearly be the most right leaning. Therefore it stands to reason that those left would be more left leaning and likely to favour Brown. In other words Tory advances at Lib expense will naturally increase the % preference among Lib Dems for Brown
BTW Mr S didn’t you advise Cameron to do something similar. Ok he’s not standing aside in Lib Dem seats but he’s put them on the spot big time. And Huhne has already rushed to rubbish matters. Clegg perhaps more wisely is assessing affairs before speaking
51
We must have reached that point.. Labour has no vision , that must be clear to the electorate by now. The treasury has no money left, its broke. 36 billion deficit (if I remember correctly) , that will overrun due to the economic downturn, 35 billion or so on NR. There isnt a sou left for the Govt to use for any initiative/new policy. In fact they may be forced into cuts…. The Golden rule must be broken by now ?
35/36 lol SBS - although given how quickly Mike was in and out of hospital, I have to ask if barry has been giving special treatment to his voting constituents?
And madasafish @ 34, if we don’t sign a formal pledge of allegiance to the Conservative party, we’re pandering to activists are we? Give over as they say back home! Appealing to the large numbers of voters who want something different from the identikit policies of the other two main parties, that’s where the opportunity is at the moment, and I’m sure the new leader will be capable of reaching out to this group. And the activists will be more encouraged than they have been for a while under fresh leadership, so you can say ‘Doomed’ all you like, but it ain’t gonn happen
48 - Alex, if the Blairites turn on Brown publicly he’ll be toast even quicker. The voters hate divided parties.
20 The problem is Labour Party rules don’t provide for a quick stab in the back. If the Leader digs his heels in as Blair did it becomes an attritional process taking months. If they wanted him out quickly he would have to go voluntarily. They can’t any other way now
49 blotter the article you highlight is stunning for the insight on the BoE and Stelzer just would not write this if someone high up in the BoE had not told him.
It is also possibly more significant than the 45% from Yougov because of who is writing it.
“THE Bank of England is trying to push through reforms to the banking system to prevent another Northern Rock crisis but is being frustrated by a prime minister and a chancellor who are said to be too demoralised to take action.”
Irwin Stelzer is Murdoch’s eyes and ears in the UK political field. He was a friend of Brown’s but has recently been stepping away in his support.
Cameron will be the next PM and everyone I know is ecstatic about the prospect.
Its about time we got back to politics as normal, permanent Conservative rule, with every now and again, one period out of office, to show the voters the error of their ways.
The last ten years have been abhorrent in every respect.
Once normality has been returned, and the trained elite back in charge, all should be well.
To me, Brown’s trip to Lisbon is starting to feel like Thatcher’s trip to Paris, just before she was toppled.
The picture of him, in splendid isolation, signing the Treaty while back home his government gradually implodes will linger in the public consciousness.
On a previous thread someone suggested that part of the recurrent government mismanagement can be explained by the lack of civil servant advice,either through fear or design, to help this administaration avoid making simple mistakes. I think there may be something in this.
60. Yep - the whole media-political-civil service establishment is now attacking Labour at every turn. It’s the complete reverse of the mid-1990s. The decision has been made - Labour has got to go.
“nobody actually denied that it’s what they’re doing.”
Poppycock, Mr P. It was explained very clearly to you yesterday that it was happening, is happening and why. Brown has based the Labour strategy on his leadership, his abilities and his past record. These are not personal attacks on his private life or the private person but the image Brown has attempted to portray to the public……. Shiny white teeth and all.
52 Women have tended to vote in a less risky manner than men. The fact that women are supporting Cameron in greater numbers shows that they perceive the Conservatives as less of a risk to their well being than Brown.
Men of course have a higher inclination to riskier behaviour. Hence 3% polling for UKIP vs only 1% men.
55 I wonder if Cameron has made his assessment of the likely winner of the Leadership? Clearly his intervention is too late to influence the result, and if he had seen Huhne as the likely winner he may have taken a more aggressive (rather than “love-bombing’) approach? He is well aware that Clegg finds this question more difficult than Huhne.
57 Thanks, tpfkar for responding to madasafish - he has commented a number of times along similar lines. It is quite clear that as Lib Dems, the party’s interest, and the people’s interest (in both senses of the word interest) is better served by running a distinctive line. Being left to look like a feeble, junior adjunct of the Tories “ain’t gonna butter no parsnips”. It was good to hear CK on the Marr show taking a balanced view that summarised went - Parties should work together where they are in agreement over particular issues, but that does not and should not imply working together against other parties. And that the implication from “Dave” that this would be some kind of “progressive consensus” is simply not true.
64. ‘These are not personal attacks on his private life’
Indeed, admirable restraint is being shown in that sphere.
67 and sensibly so too. That is a subject the Tories should leave well alone. Leave the personal attacks to the Blairites
66 Not sure its difficult for both really. But I think Huhne’s response dumb. He could have set a series of tests impossible to meet. Flat out rejection would have been just what Cameron was hoping for
69 - and just makes it easier for anyone to paint the LDs as either political pygmies (if they won’t co-operate with anyone), or Labour patsies (which they’ll have to do now if they’re flat out rejecting Tory offers)
The quote from an unnamed BoE official rings true….
I recently spoke to a senior civil servant who lived through the last years of the Major government. (Off the record), he mused that he’d felt abandonned in the mid-90’s. In essence, he claimed that the Major government just gave up; the civil service received no steer from their ministers at all. He mentioned this because he felt that the atmosphere of drift and ministerial introversion was becoming detectable again. It clearly made him feel very uncomfortable.
The REAL threat to Brown is that the public might start to feel the same way. If they do, then there will be no way back. Labour will no longer be the “natural Party of government”. Cameron will then just need to appear confident and competent, and he will be in for 2-3 terms.
Media reponses from Cable and Kennedy suggest the Lib Dems might be running headlong into the trap. The only way out for it will be for the new leader to be seen to carefully consider it - dismissing it out of hand will be a bad idea.
The two parties disagree on many issues, but where they agree then there is a case to work together as best they can. Brown and Labour are currently unpopular - to dismiss talk of an alliance against them does not look good, as Mike suggested, as it suggests the LDs are in no rusk to expell the government.
Interesting article Mike, looks like good stratehy from Cameron.
Meanwhile Donorgate gets worse for Labour with the resurfacing of Jane Hogarth. See here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/12/donorgate-jane-hogarth-and-courtney.html
(And that is my own research from my own sources so it is not in the papers yet).
61 - “Cameron will be the next PM and everyone I know is ecstatic about the prospect.”
Dez, you should get out more.
72 - the areas where the LDs and Tories agree tend to be ones where the Tories have come round to the LD point of view.
72, It looks good if you are a Lib Dem who fights tooth and nail against Conservatives, any formal alliance would be political suicide.
Anyways if the polls are correct your man doesn`t want any help, and the Lib Dems would get shafted as usual in any case.
The Lib Dems need a close election, to change anything and they know it.
74,
I was been ironic I haven`t met anyone yet who eulogizes about him yet , like they do on here.
But then again it might be a northern thing,
Down south they like a bit of the toffs back in charge thing.
75. Their chief concern is that they are going to be swept out with the pro-Tory tide in the same way so many were swept in by the anti-Tory tide in 1997. A lot of their representation is a ‘residual’ depending on the ebb and flow of Tory fortunes.
“Progressive alliance”? I wouldn’t have picked the Tories as the nucleus of anything progressive (or, for that matter, Labour).
And why, when the polls are suggesting a Tory landslide that could last a generation, is the Tory leader making any gesture at all towards any other party?
There is a small report in the Sunday times about a developer on the cross rail project donating money to labour - cash fro accesss - quite open about it - extra donations just days before the decision - according the article . May all be ok and declared - but looks sleazy and part of the dash for cash
40
‘I wonder what will happen if their new leader doesn’t get a poll boost and they stay at their present levels. They can’t get another leader so what are their options?’
The usual reason given by the Lib Dems for poor poll results is the lack of publicity they get between elections compared to the two other parties.However,the past few months has been the reverse with their leadership campaign in full swing,Huhne grabbing the headlines over the Labour funding scandal and excellent performances from Vince Cable.
If they can’t improve their poll ratings with all this positive publicity,why would anything change with a new leader with less publicity?
78 Because it looks positive and reasonable. Because it weaken anti Tory tactical voting and helps keep a grip on the Lib Dem voters he’s got in Lab/Con seats. It does though seem to have attracted Tim Montgomery’s ire predictably
Nick P wrote. Labour’s strategy in 1995-7 was multi-stranded and attacking Major was not a leading element in the campaign in the country.
No ifs or buts you are just plain wrong.
John Prescott said in his 1996 Conference speech. “They are up to their necks in sleaze. The best slogan he could think up for their conference next week is, ‘Life’s Better Under The Tories’. Sounds to me like one of Steven Norris’s chat up lines. Can you believe that this lot is in charge? Not for long, eh? Then after 17 years of this Tory government, they have the audacity to talk about morality. Did you hear John Major on The Today Programme? - calling for ethics to come back into the political debate? I’m told some Tory MPs think ethics is a county near Middlesex. It’s a bit hard to take: John Major - ethics man. …. For too many Tories, morality means not getting caught.Morality is measured in more than just money. It’s about right and wrong. We are a party of principle. We will earn the trust of the British people. We’ve had enough lies. Enough sleaze.”
“We are a party of principle”. Rings a bit hollow now Nick?
80 This is YouGove. They never ever give good Lib Dem figures even when the others do. The Lib Dems will only worry if ICM say had these figures
78 - in reality it is just a ploy to keep LD / Tory floaters on board the good ship Cameron.
82 - Prezza and Major. If ten years ago you had been asked to name the two MPs least likely to be shagging someone in the office, I think you may have come up with these two.
82,
At least Major was honest or so I thought.
Whilst shafting us, and a n other cabinet minister.
82
HF
You must have put that speech through the Universal translator. Prezza could never have said that verbatim
81 - Not much of a deep strategist, our man Monty, much as he likes to pretend.
66 57
You missed my smileys at the end.
Imo the LibDems are still closely associated with Labour and supporting Labour.
Hence their dismal poll ratings.
An instant dismissal of Conservative offers of working together proves to may I would imagine that the LibDems are incapable of supporting anyone but Labour.
So I believe the LibDems will suffer politically as a result.
After all, what is the point of a third party if it only supportrs one of the two majors?
And so called independent policies are just a smoksescreen as can be seen by LibDems unwillingness to insists (INSIST) on Proportional representation as the price of support.
I have followed politics for 40 odd years. In that time, the LibDems have supported Labour and what have they receieved in return?
Nothing of importance.
WHat have they achieved on PR?
Nothing.
A ringing endorsement o their lack of political success and nous.
It’s going to continue.
PS I used to support the LibDems until I saw how ineffectual they were nationally.
76 Don’t expect eulogising about Cameron from the Tories. They do things differently to Labour. Instead they will begin to exude a low key contententment that the natural order of things is being restored and begin to define the poltical debate accordingly. We see it here all the time, but it is drowned out sometimes by the crazies. It’s a formiddable political force, but it can be trumped.
Re Ron Paul’s chances on the previous thread. The price does look ridiculous but, speaking for Ladbrokes, Paul is our worst result in the next president betting. A number of people are on at 66s, 40s etc to reasonable stakes. I can’t see any evidence that he’s making the slightest impact in any polls, but the price isn’t going to drift any time soon here.
Major must be feeling quite smug. A dish best served cold.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7146744.stm
78: There is nothing really to lose from the strategy and a lot to gain.
88 (con) - although to be fair, Punter, having read it i think you’re characterisation of his approach to it is a bit of a misrepresentation.
78 - I think he’s trying to be magnanimous
Great move by Cameron - initially thought Huhne was mad to respond so virulently against, but on reflection, I can see that it would have been very dangerous to have people thinking of the Tories and Lds as a single block, and for that thought to have 2 years or more to bed in. He can be adamant now, and [if leader] still make a deal later. If you make a move towards a deal now, you either get swallowed, or you look bad breaking it.
And Clegg … ?
92 - It was a smart move by Major, rejecting the contents of the Scott report out of hand
91 Thanks Shadsy, that’s very helpful.
I think Ladbroke’s money is perfectly safe but it will be a while before we know for sure. Meanwhile I continue to be a layer at silly low prices.
Btw, I haven’t forgotten about the Party. Just been laid up for a couple of days.
Always good to Major on the Telly!
94 I don’t see how. He bangs on about his surveys on it all the time. He is a neo con with us or against us view. He doesn’t seem to get the nuances in politics as Kerry may say..
99 - I was referring to the specific ‘Tory Diary’ thread posted today.
100 So? He still refers to his surveys. He is clearly not a happy bunny on this
101 - OK then, in that case i refer you to post 88
82: HF, this is silly - I say Labour had a multi-stranded approach, you pick out one bit of a Prescott speech in 1996 and say that proves me wrong. You claim a martini consists only of olives, I say no, it’s a mixture, and you brandish an olive.
Nick Palmer, the only reason Labour could afford to be multi-stranded during the period 1995 - 1997 was because the Tories still had a coherent set of policies to attack - for instance, the privatisation of the railways and the mooted privatisation of the post office; “Prison Works” under Michael Howard, &c. This is patently not possible under Brown because Brown has not yet shown us his vision. We can hardly be blamed for not attacking what isn’t there can we?!?!
I believe the last of those quotes was one from the 1997 campaign, actually, although I may be mistaken. The point though, as I mentioned yesterday, is that Brown has sold himself to the country purely on the basis of his personality difference from Blair, I guess much like Major did in the period 1990 - 1992. Given that, and given the lack of any policy grounds to attack as outlined above, I think it’s fair to say he made it open season for attack. After all, the Tories are targetting aspects if his character that he specifically put to the fore as his strengths - and indeed, as his very raison d’etre. Even his strong supporters such as yourself, I don’t think, put forward any other case for why he should lead, what his point was, as it were. He wants to make the Labour story all about himself, narcissist as he clearly is, and meanwhile proactively removed any other narrative about New Labour, so is reaping what he sows.
103. Any thoughts on what you will be doing after leaving politics, Nick?
103: Nick, your party spent 15 years insulting and bullying the opposition parties and now are getting what you sowed. Stop moaning it makes you look pathetic.
Even more interesting is what would happen to the Tories if the Lib Dems accepted.
You just couldn’t make this up!!!!
The battle to sell stricken mortgage bank Northern Rock hit huge new difficulties this weekend when it emerged that favoured bidder Sir Richard Branson doesn’t have a banking licence.
Nick Fox, a Virgin spokesman, confirmed that Virgin Money ‘isn’t a bank or an authorised deposit taker’
Branson’s Virgin Money offshoot, which is spearheading his effort to acquire Northern Rock, must seek authorisation from the Financial Services Authority to take depositors’ money, and that process could take up to three months.
Virgin Money offers financial services such as life insurance in partnership with the Royal Bank of Scotland, and credit cards in a joint venture with finance giant MBNA. But it is essentially a branding and marketing operation.
The regulator will need reassurance about the calibre of the management teams of both Virgin and Olivant (the only other bidder for Northern Rock). As one insider put it: ‘You should not assume that it is a slam-dunk.’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/de…nrichardbranson
If 4/5 is still available about nationalising “The Rock” grab it,I have to dash to watch Arsenal and in particular Mr Van Persie torment Chelsea and take another step towards the Premiership title.
I wonder if Roger has read the Rentoul article? I recall he said that he would be very worried if the “Garden Room Girls” story was true, but had dismissed it out of hand because he thought it came from Peter Oborne.
98: “Always good to Major on the Telly!”
Indeed it is.
He was, in my opinion, the best Prime Minister that the UK has had in my lifetime (I’m 33) and I sincerely doubt that we’ll have as good a Prime Minister again.
I was about 6 weeks too young to vote at the time of the 1992 GE so I had to wait until 1997 - when I was, I conceed, one of the very few people who voted Conservative with genuine enthusiasm on that day.
108. Branson’s bid always looked like pure PR, like so much of what he does. The funny part is how easily the desperate New Labour hierarchy were taken in…
111 - it’s not like Branson hasn’t had a history of it with the Labour Govt. I’ll bet some people thought he actually did want to run the National Lottery, “for free”
The really odd thing about the Branson bid is that I would expect ONE of the main criteria that any group had to pass when mounting a bid was a licence to operate a bank.
The fact that NR’s Directors and the Govt allowed them to act as the favoured bidder simply beggars belief.
It is like selecting an accountant for interview from a CV without them having an accountancy qualification.
112. It’s another example of Labour being desperate to ingratiate themselves with business figures in order to appear ‘competent’. What ends up happening is the government/taxpayer ends up being taken for a ride, or in the more extreme cases (not Branson), the government ends up being embarassed when the shady backgrounds of some of these figures are revealed…
104-106: You could be saying a bit more about your own ideas - as we were in 1995-7. Just a suggestion!
I don’t go out of my way to wind Tories up here, but some of you do get enraged awfully easily - just say “Ashcroft” or “negative campaigning” and you go through the roof. You’ve got a good opinion poll lead, so why aren’t you affably serene? Anyone reading the tone of our exchanges would think Labour was 20% ahead and you were desperately trying to shout me down.
115. If anyone is getting ruffled Nick, it’s you. Not surprising though, given your current career trajectory.
103. Nick, surely you can’t deny that the whole sleaze thing was being driven by Campbell and the like in Millbank in the 90s. There’s been bad apples for years on both sides, but Labour in their desperation to govern used it to paint the whole party and Government as sleazy which it patently wasn’t. It was they who bought politics into the gutter and made it personal. The outrage now it’s coming back to bite Labour on the arse is extraordinary.
115. Oh come on Nick, you were the one who raised the issue yesterday, with some evident soreness, about personal attacks on Brown. Presumably you are now convinced as to why this is a perfectly acceptable policy under the circumstances and one which, unlike most precedents, entirely brought about by the target themselves!
Brown in one sense is a living parallel of headline grasping B-list celebrities such as the Beckhams, Madonna or Paris Hilton. You can’t try and make the story all about yourself and then complain about the attention!
115- Nick- as soon as I see anything with a harry, or ralph- creatures crawling through the stench of the undergrowth I just ignore them. Unless I need a good laugh- then I read the comments.
When I see any Tory leader personally endorse and commit to Westminster elections being conducted by the Single Transferable Vote in multi-member constituencies, then I will believe that the Tories are progressive. But I could say the same of Labour.
The Lib Dems would do best to completely ignore any nonsense from their implacable enemies, and talk to the Greens and Nationalists with whom they do have something, just about perceptible, in common.
Just glanced at The Observer article by a couple of tory MPs and the comments thereafter on this and saw pretty much what I expected i.e. anger at attempts to deny exclusivity over an abstract concept.
Let me explain, ‘progressive’ is meaningless as a term in politics and is an example of a term appropriated to try and elevate a concept over reality. The argument that progress is for one group (and that the others must therefore be against progress) may seem esoteric but, in actual fact, is the heart of the current political battle. Saddled with the name conservative it is necessary for Cameron to show that his conservatism is allied to other abstract concepts that are anything but, hence progressive or liberal conservatism.
At its heart is the problem that words are imperfect explanations for anything other than the concrete; they are malleable and open to interpretation. The phrase ‘war of words’ may suggest a verbal argument but it is best exemplified by this war *over* words.
The clincher is that the comments from Observer/Guardian types often ignore the reality of the policy alluded to and are instead apoplectic about the appropriation of the abstract concept of progressivism.
The reason? When reality goes wrong the only thing you are left with is the abstract concept that underpins your belief. Take away the exclusivity of that abstract concept and the belief is unmoored also. In summation, the commenters may know that their government is in trouble but thay can, at least, hold onto their abstract core. Cameron knows that and that is why he is wresting it away, without exclusivity over that abstract core then new labour really are finished.
119.. . Come on Tyson, thats rather personal. by all means disagree, but you post is IMHO a bit over the top.
By the way, where is Gabble ?
115 Nick I have just had enough of Labour spin. It has infected politics and we are all worse off for it.
We even had that “Govt Minister” McNulty on Sky today saying that 13 point leads are nothing as after BW “Labour lead for a year with 20 point leads”.
Not spin, just lies. The truth across all Polls is that Labour’s average lead in those 12 months with just 11.56 points.
Nick, your party is in a hole and need to start telling the truth.
115: Nick, it was you who brought up the issue of what you saw as personal attacks on Brown. All I’m doing is pointing out that your party made an art form of attacking Major, and Tories in general so you can hardly complain. It doesn’t work as a poltical ploy as people remember you doing it too.
122: Don’t feed trolls
Mr Palmer, I hugely admire your willingness to come on here and argue points with the public. That said, you are simply wrong to suggest that pre-1997 Labour wasted much time talking about its policies when it could much more profitably attack the failing Government.
Similarly, the Tories are attacking Gordon Brown on political aspects not private aspects, and with good reason. To moan about it suggests that you can dish it out but can’t take it. I would suggest that the Government concentrates instead on disproving the opposition’s taunts - if it can.
Labour can’t have it both ways. During the summer they were attacking what the Conservative policy commissions were saying mercilessly, adamantly insisting they represented what the Conservatives were intending to do in Govt. Now that Gordon Brown’s style of Govt is under attack they claim that it is all the Conservatives are focussing on, in front of a zero policy prospectus.
Gabble has been temporarily dismissed from the bunker, paid the minimum wage and set free to pollute the comment threads of PBc he developed a mild form of Stockholm syndrome and deviated from the narrative.
He is presently receiving ‘corrective therapy’ courtesy of the Alistair Campbell Institute of Truth……. paid for out of tax payers funds.
Allegedly..!
127 - true he was showing signs of going (what is allegedly) ‘native’
Ralph - there’s no reason why I shouldn’t raise it or you shouldn’t disagree. It’s responses like “Stop moaning it makes you look pathetic.” that make me think you’re ruffled. Like your leaders, you default too readily to personal attacks. But there’s other things to do so I’ll leave you the last word!
121, ukpaul,
Very well put.
i would say that the Lib Dems would be poorly advised to look as if they were formally allied with the Tories. Even with the Ashdown/Blair alliance, it was rather surreptitious - very few people knew that any type of coalition was being seriously considered.
As Steel found out in the late Seventies - being considered an adjunct to either of the main parties is
damaging.
What the Lib Dems should do is agree with the Tories on areas with which they genuinely agree, and also attack Labour from the “left” - rather than squabbling over the “right”-leaning floating voters and trying to outshout the Cameron Conservatives, they should homw in on the “left”-leaning floating voters (and weakly bonded core) because in that area, there is no competition.
Do to Labour what Labour did to the Liberals in the twenties - isolate a Party that has navigated far from its ideological roots by attacking from both sides - Tories from the “right”, Lib Dems from the “left”.
Just think of what the electoral landscape could look like - even under a Tory majority Government - if the seat totals of both the Lib Dems and Labour start with a “1″.
(eg 195 Labour, 107 Lib Dem would mean that Labour would look in real danger of being leap-frogged into second-party status)
Although I am “right”-leaning, and a Lib Dem party that would support the Tories would make Cameron’s task a lot easier, for the Lib Dems themselves, surely getting to Official Opposition status would be the crucial breakthrough. They can replace Labour as they have always been a “centre to centre-left” party. When the Tories were weak, they could never have stolen the Tory core.
Re 129, Nick Palmer “But there’s other things to do so I’ll leave you the last word!”
*cough* If I may step in and have the last word
Actually Nick, I can see why you do not care for “personal” attacks on Brown, but he has set himself up for it. I agree that it does not help get voters across. If you look at Labour’s win in 1997 they won in part by depressing turnout, though they also won Conservative votes over.
Since then turnout has relentlessly dropped, in part because of the nature of Labour’s attack style politics.
Our attacks are working in terms of getting us the margin but are not going to help get non voters out. That said, our strategy will change to give people positive reasons to vote Conservative.
129. Sad to see you descending into this petty tit-for-tat ‘You’re more ruffled than I am’ stuff, Nick.
129: Nick, I’m sorry if you were offended that was not my intention.
My main point still stands though, your party has for years made personal attacks on opposition leaders, and their MPs which makes criticising Cameron for attacking Brown look you are trying to have it both ways. Does it work as a ploy when you go out canvassing?
I do think Cameron has to tone it down because we aren’t at the stage that Major was in when Blair could call him ‘weak, weak, weak’ and get away with it.
Another tactical masterstroke by Cameron. It has already had the desired, and inevitable, effect.
Vote Lib Dem, get Labour.
Let’s hear that FACT driven home every day from now till the next election.
133 - He already has, hasn’t he?
The problem is that at the end of the day Nick is spinning a line. He’s obviously not the only one on here who spends most of the time spinning, but because of his position he is inevitably one of the few who will never say anything that might work against his own side. One of the joys of this site is when someone will spend days on end trying to hold a line, only to suddenly crumble when they realise that it’s getting ridiculous (see reference to Gabble above).
That is not to say that Nick doesn’t write things worth reading, spinning a line doesn’t automatically make that line wrong, but it’s nice to occasionally hold out the thought that defeat might be conceded occasionally. After all, what is the point in arguing with somebody if they is no hope of a victory in that argument being acknowledged?
Nick 129. One of the characteristics of the Gord Gang operation over the past decade has been to brief and plant nasty stories about anybody who appeared to stand in their way. Maybe Gord didn’t do it himself but he let spinning thugs like Derek Draper feed their poison when it was required.
The approach was always the same - if the argument was lost then discredit the person behind it. I have a close academic friend who was at the wrong end of a Gord Gang smearing and the experience was not very pleasant. I can’t think of a nastier operation in modern times.
But hey - this is politics and anything is allowable but I do think that the Tories who went on and on about “Grandpa Ming” should perhaps step aside from this discussion.
No doubt that even now they are preparing plans to gang-bang Nick Clegg.
136 - Any chance you could edit that comment Mike? I can’t believe you meant to write that last line.
re 29 and probably a good three-quarters of them will not bother to vote at all.
61 Dez are you sure that Cameron will be the next Prime Minister. I’d have said that the odds were pretty near to evens that he won’t be.
139 - Dez is a Labour supporter. I wouldn’t take everything he’s written at face value.
re 122 maybe he’s ensconced in the bunker learning the strategy for relaunch number 129.
re 123 “Tony McNulty” and “truth” are not concepts that occur often together in the same sentence.
136 Spot on Remember the disgusting smears against Miliband when he was mulling whether to challenge GB
134. And especially tell the core Labour supporters (there are still a lot of them, though they may not have voted in 2005) in the Con/Lib Dem marginals.
142. Anything ‘Labour’ and the concept of truth are a contradiction in terms.
Watching the bickering going on today “You’re worse than we are” “well you started it” or even “it was only part of our multi-stranded approach” only makes me glad not to be associated with either party. Sitting back and laughing - they really are as bad as each other!!
And Bob Sykes @ 134, can we lose this tag of “not a Conservative, so must be Labour”? I’m getting bored of it now, clearly an independent third party, who might actually take some of your precious anti-Government votes, is too much to cope with on a Sunday. Several other offenders on this one as well.
Punter, from yesterday’s thread, I think you’re right about Newport West. A 1992-type win might just see the Tories take it.
WRT Barking, I’d expect to see Labour hold it, with the BNP winning about 30% or so. I could be wrong, but I don’t think any constituency is prepared to elect a BNP MP right now. Quite a lot may depend on the recent faction fight, but the London and South East BNP don’t seem to be involved in this quarrel.
135: Nick has a difficult line to tread as he can’t admit the latest ploy to get back support isn’t that good and that Labour did the same earlier on.
What I find strange is that it casts Brown as weak and a victim which can’t be how he wants to be seen.
148. Perhaps this is an attempt at openess after its certainly true that Brown is weak and a victim of his own incompetence.
Sky: Tommy Sheridan arrested in perjury probe….
Quite right. After all it’s not like the most damaging personal line about Gordon Brown was made by the acting LibDem leader, was it?
BTW nothing wrong with asserting the Libdems status as a distinctive third party but they shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that a great number of votes do not come to them for that reason. “Not a Conservative, so must be Labour” may be a very simplistic notion, but it gets to the absolute heart of the LibDem dilemma under FPTP.
I’m surprised by the latest poll figures as I expected a modest claw back from Labour.
What is more worrying for ther government is the economy. If they at this level now then with the economy in a few difficulties there is potentially little chance of recovery in the polls for a good couple of years..short of a Tory horlicks.
The cards being played such as Iraq don’t seem to have moved people. NR threatens to look awful too. At this stage I wouldnt underestimated how much damage that will do.
146. ‘an independent third party’
But where is this mythical beast?
The question of “which side are you really on” is one that the Lib Dems always have to find ways of avoiding an answer.
Are you kidding Mike? Everyone knows the LibDems would always far rather cosy up to Labour. You only need to read their postings on this site to realise very quickly that this is the case and has been for at least the past 30 years.
Cameron also needs to tread carefully on this one - most of us Tories haven’t forgotten the LibDem leadership’s “decapitation” strategy from the last GE.
re 154 as a LibDem supporter I’d be horrified if they cozied up to Labour and wouldn’t vote for them in that scenario. I reckon I’m not alone in that thinking either.
146 tpfkar,
“And Bob Sykes @ 134, can we lose this tag of “not a Conservative, so must be Labour”? I’m getting bored of it now, clearly an independent third party, who might actually take some of your precious anti-Government votes, is too much to cope with on a Sunday. Several other offenders on this one as well.”
True, there are plenty of offenders.
One is your Lib Dem colleague Mark Senior — anyone daring to criticise his polling analyses is routinely accused of being a “Tory”, or sometimes a “smug Tory”.
It is possible to not be a Tory, but be higly sceptical of the garbage routinely posted by Mark Senior.
130. The Labour vote is fortuitously structured so that (barring a total collapse down to about 20% national share) they will ALWAYS be first or second in seats. There was no chance of the Liberal Alliance overtaking Labour in 1983, and there’s no chance now. There was, however a long-shot chance the LDs could have supplanted the Tories during the period 1997-2005, but that time has obviously now passed.
It’s all to do with the geographical variation in the Labour vote. It’s very unevenly distributed, while the Tory and LD distributions are much more even, and closer to each other than Labour.
157 - these things are not set in stone. It is only in recent years that the LibDems have looked outside their traditional strong areas in the Conservative south and started going after areas in Labour north. The staggering advances they have made in some places may make them wonder if they shouldn’t have tried a bit harder a bit earlier.
150 In other news Pope confesses he’s a Catholic..
156
O/T but picking a seat at total random from Waller’s book Newport West
Do you agree with Waller that the Tories need a reprise of their 1983 performance to take it. Personally I doubt it very much. It’ll be extremely tough for them to crack but this is no Bridgend a genuine landslide seat. The houseprice boom in Cardiff has driven more middle class voters further east young couples etc. This is a seat the Tories could take with a smallish UK majority i.e 30-50 seats I think.
157 and 158 the decapitation strategy of the LDs in GE2005 ranks as one of the LDs biggest mistakes.
I agree with alex that the easiest vote to chase for the Lib Dems are in Labour areas like the North.
However the areas with the largest concentration of LD seats, the South West, South East/London and Scotland are also the areas where the Lib Dems have the toughest fights to retain the seats.
151 - Oh no of course not alex
155 - nice to agree with you for a change Chris A - you certainly are not alone!
156 - Mark Senior is fast becoming a pb.c institution, so criticise him at your peril Gwynfa! And he of all people is able to see that disagreeing with one of the largest two parties does not make you a supporter of the other one. His second party preference is fairly well documented (or badly hidden!) - it is different to mine but we are still in the same party and we have managed to avoid bare-knuckle fighting on here so far….
155 Sorry Chris, that my comments in 154 inevitably amounted to a generalisation, in response to a generalised comment by Mike in his thread. Put another way, perhaps, were 1000 LibDems to be polled as to which of the other two major parties they felt inherently closer, I would expect a majority of at least 2-1 to opt for Labour. This may well be tested at the next GE, when the Tories may well find it impossible to form a Government unless they have an outright majority, but hopefully the electorate will recognise this prospect and act accordingly.
Alex @ 158
The adjective staggering has 2 meanings:
Walking unsteadily, lurching, stumbling or weaving.
And
So surprisingly impressive as to stun or overwhelm.
I would hazard to say on occasions; a bit of both wouldn’t you say.
157,
Unless they lose elements of the core vote. Which, when a party has sailed too far too long from its base, is always possible.
So if the vote that is unevenly distributed turned Lib Dem, then the LDs would have the same benefit from it that Labour has enjoyed.
It’s one hell of a long shot, but it does appear as if Blair has sailed his Party down the same route that Lloyd George did, so the same possibilities could open - especially if there’s a vote collapse.
While we’re on this topic of personal politics, what were the dedicated Party political Broadcasts abour Cameron the chameleon?, and regular toff name calling. I’m going to join Ralph in calling these protests pathetic.
162. The problem is that views like his get you into trouble by painting a pretty clear picture for the electorate of “Vote Lib Get Lab”. Also he is pretty extreme as his sole political purpose appears to be neither pro-Lib Dem or even pro-Labour but simply anti-Tory. Unfortunately that’s not a policy, just a prejudice.
Not one normally to complain about the Dead Tree Press, but the Telegraph is running the sort of contradictory stories that Private Eye likes to mock:
“Chris Huhne prepares for suprise win” by Rosa Prince yesterday
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/12/15/nlibdems115.xml
Includes about Clegg: “The 39-year-old home affairs spokesman just about remains the bookies’ favourite.” Just about? Did she even check the odds? 1/6 vs 7/2 in Clegg’s favour
Then just a day later, at the same paper - “Confident of Victory, Nick Clegg plans team”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/news/2007/12/16/nclegg116.xml
Includes: “the Clegg camp is confident their man has beaten Mr Huhne by at least three votes to two.” That is simply not believable, and no respectable journalist should quote it without some dampening context. The best poll showed a 56% v 44% split, with movement in Huhne’s direction later in the contest.
Who are these people? Where do they find them? What qualifies them to write about politics for the biggest-selling broadsheet in the UK? Most of this is not even news - any more than the infamous “Breaking news: fire still burning in California”.
The only thing that could qulify as news is that:
“They [Clegg's team] have suggested Mr Clegg may not even offer a promotion to Mr Huhne, the party’s environment spokesman” - in glaring contradiction to what Clegg has said publically. The Independent on Sunday today has “In fact, if he wins, Mr Clegg will “absolutely, definitely” offer Mr Huhne a place among his spokespeople. “He’ll be found a big place,” he promises.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3194079.ece
This could be an interesting, but short-lived market - if Clegg wins, what jobs will Huhne get, and vice-versa?
166 Woody - just to remind both you and Mr Matthew Partridge, should he currently be on site, that both you and I now look certain to win a tenner off him on 31 December as a result of Labour’s non-lead in the polls up to that date. The words “candy” and “baby” spring to mind
165 Andy Cooke “Unless they lose elements of the core vote. Which, when a party has sailed too far too long from its base, is always possible.”
An intriguing possibility if the recession really bites. Why would Gordon be rewarded with voters trust if that happens?
Labour’s base of councillors is now just 5% more than the Lib Dems, 10 yrs ago it was a 27% lead.
Labour’s deficit in the polls is already at Major’s post Black Weds levels.
The problem for Labour is that the perception is that they just don’t seem to be doing anything much right and with that comes a general stench of incompetence. This has allowed Cameron and the Conservatives to take a comfortable lead in the polls.
Lets see what 2008 brings on the political and economic front …
I must admit that the overtures on the part of Cameron towards the Lib Dems to form a “PROGRESSIVE alliance” against Labour sent me rolling around the floor laughing.
165. But where would Labour’s core vote go? Not to the Lib Dems, the middle class hangwringers party par excellence. There simply is no ’socialist alternative’ home for it - the most likely outcome would be large scale abstention in this scenario.
That might swing a few seats, but given the likely geographical concentration of it (safe Labour seats in the old industrial areas) it isn’t going to lead to mass seat losses and a fundamental change in the political balance of power. Rod Crosby is essentially making the same point up the thread. In the current electoral system, Labour can come a very bad second (1983 style) but for them to come third is inconceivable.
168 Re-paste from your writing: “23 There is only slightly more chance of a British Pope than there is of an American one. The Cardinals simply won’t take a chance of being viewed as being captured by the Anglo-American alliance in the developed world. BTW I think those odds on Smith are generous. He was parachuted into his present seat after the departure of the previous incumbent under the darkest of clouds and a diocese in a state of virtual civil war. He dealt with it all very deftly. Looks good odds
32 What does England epitomise then? They’re not still regretting not giving Arry his divorce are they
by Punter”
171 rolling around the floor laughing
I agree 100%
There’s an acronym for this isn’t there?
172 Inconceivable in seat numbers under FPTP certainly which is whyt they’d be mad ever to drop it, but inconceivable in popular votes I think not. With a CK like charismatic Lib Dem leader and a 1983 type manifesto. The ludicrous dual alliance Leadership was probably all that stopped that then
162. I often read your posts with interest but I must take you to task on this.
Mark Senior is fast becoming a pb.c institution
Indeed he does sometimes give some interesting analysis but his blatant political alliegances undermine his commentary far to often.
His trying to denounce national polls using ‘real’ local elections of 15%-25% turnout is ridiculous and as a result attracts ridicule.
You might as well try and claim that this last poll was good for Labour (Gabble, Roger where are you?).
Institution- Give us a break - Spinmeister more like………
169. Well remembered Peter. Better than photo finish betting that bet was.
175. Yes, I meant in terms of seats of course. The only way I could see Labour dropping to third under FPTP is if they had some kind of catastrophic split which roughly evenly divided their vote in lots of constituencies.
Just noticed on the top of the page that the Tories odds of winning the next election are 3/4. The traditionalist in me wants to scream. What’s the matter with 30/40?
172,
So offer them an alternative! It doesn’t have to be a full-blown socialist utopia, but something noticeably closer than that offered by Labour. One or two major policies to appeal to the Labour heartlands (as long as you can do so without scaring off too many of the current voters.
The current setup is not fixed in stone. Even cores shift - otherwise Labour would still be the third party.
177 At Matthew’s request, I sent a confirmatory email to Mike, which referred to your bet also.
180 - Quite. Just because Labour has a large tribal vote in their heartlands, doesn’t mean they’re all militant socialists.
173 - I didn’t ignore you Punter! I posted a response at number 70 on the next thread. I think you are spot-on re: an Anglophone Pope putting the developing world off Catholicism, so my hunch is suggesting the Cardinal Archbishop of Sao Paolo or prehaps Buenos Aires. The tide is changing in Latin America, and evangelical Protestantism is growing in popularity. Next time they elect a Pope, the college of Cardinals will have to decide whether Europe/N America is still worth salvaging, or whether their choice should strategically look to Latin America.
I think for the Vatican England probably epitomises Liberal individualism - not without intellectual or pastoral promise, but too maverick ever to be trusted as a leading country in the Church. I’m pretty sure there is no regret about Henry VIII’s divorce - most of the people who were around then have died or retired, though some are still teaching in Jesuit schools!!
172. Yes, my analysis was based on the reasonable assumption that the “core vote” would be the last to defect. A continuation of the pattern in party competition that has existed since the 1920s would see Labour remain in the top two, barring a catastrophic drop in overall support (to roughly sub 20%).
However it is possible to conceive of a new “cleavage” emerging, such as one based on regionalism, or more likely, alienation, where the BNP could be the main beneficaries. Still rather unlikely, in my view.
182 (con) - for historical reasons it’s very tough for the Conservatives to offer any sort of viable institutional alternative, but no reason why a party without the baggage could do so.
181. Thanks Peter.
Nick; I think there is a legitimate question as to how far a senior public figure can be inoculated from character judgements. I don’t know` if you have read Seldon’s new and widely praised Blair biography. The conduct of Brown described in that book was rather ugly, and I think that Jonathan Powell for example might feel his preent straits are poetic justice.
Vince Cable has rejected Cameron’s little plan…
Back to the drawing board, Dave!
Crikey - a 13 point lead. Hmm - maybe Ave It is the new Roger and has called this right all along - Con gain everything!
Interested in Nick’s post @ 54 “…there are morale problems among Labour voters at the moment, for obvious reasons…”
What are those “obvious reasons” that depresses the morale of your supporters Nick? They’re not “obvious” to me.
I mean you’ve got a new leader & PM who was supposed to be a real change and meant to sweep all before him. The Iraq war is being neutralised as an electoral issue as he (re)announces troops back by Christmas as we apparently hand over Basra in triumphal peace and democratic tranquillity; the economy is stable; and Gordon is facing up to the long term issues that really matter to the country. Can really see much that is “obvious” to depress morale in there.
Or could it be that you didn’t elect & test your leader, who has continued his visionless & Stalinist approach amongst a cabinet of pygmies, but has managed to combine it with the anti-Midas touch - in that everything he touches turns to dust?
Vince Cable is not going to be leader.
Back to the drawing board, swingvoter!
181 & 186.
Even the person who was described as the ‘bunker within a bunker’ on this site has to admit that I’ll probably be sending both of you a cheque by the end of the year but I’m not going to completely concede until January 1st!
BTW my current Samplemiser projections are a Conservative lead of 12.70% and a majority of 100 (or 92 according to Baxter).
191.
I meant to say a majority of 92 according to Wells.
188 - Er, someone’s really got to the heart of Cameron’s strategy there!
Apologies to Punter earlier, I didn’t read the last line of ConHome’s piece. I’ll bet we’re all looking forward to the launch of the ConHome 2008 manifesto on 7th January!
190. Did he have any choice. Dave’s cunning plan?
Cameron would have only said something like this knowing they would reject any suggestion… thankfully.
I hope.
Liberal hate us just as much as we hate them, so it’ll be welcome news on both sides if Cable / Clegg / Huhne rule it out as soon as is possible.
My advice to Cameron would be to never speak of this again and pretend it never happened, a very close shave indeed.
Highly unlikely anyway due to the polls suggesting no help we be needed thankyou very much.
OT: Nick Palmer,
I see the government is now restricting temporary visa stays from 6 months to 3 months. I hope they know how much this quick grab for headlines ruins people’s long held plans. The problem the UK has is a population that is rising far too fast - this isn’t something affected by people’s short visits here. My US girlfriend was planning to move to the UK in April before she starts a degree in September and has arranged housing and her life in general around this. Precisely what threat does she pose to this country that this needs to be reduced?
176: jsfl, I used the word institution carefully, and I’ll leave you to interpret it as you like! But I disagree with your central point, that the LDs are seen as being far too close to Labour because of those like Mark. Labour/Conservatives are so close politically that the Lib Dems are the natural home for people with a strong aversion to either party. But I would put Mark in the tribal minority, most people in the party are not so partisan as to express a hatred of one party by support for the Lib Dems. Would I want Mark as Lib Dem leader? Probably not, but do I enjoy reading his posts on here, and they have clearly struck a chord with you too.
9 – Marquee Mark “In the past three months, I haven’t met anyone - literally, not a soul - who has a good word to say for this Government. And as its figurehead, Brown is universally reviled and ridiculed, the lightning conductor for every single fault in this country today. Anecdotal tosh maybe, but it is what I find. So - I still expect Labour to crash a good deal further yet”
I thought I was the only one to think the same!! – the majority of my work collegues, friends and family are natural Labour supporters but to say they are disappointed in GB and Labour is an understatement. Most of them I think would not vote Conservative (or Lib Dem- don’t like splinters up bum – East Midlands thing}
I also find it puzzling that Labour’s rating is as high as it is.
162 tpfkar, “Mark Senior is fast becoming a pb.c institution, so criticise him at your peril Gwynfa! And he of all people is able to see that disagreeing with one of the largest two parties does not make you a supporter of the other one. His second party preference is fairly well documented (or badly hidden!)”
What Mark cannot see is that if you disagree with him (with his well-documented Lib Dem and Labour sympathies), then that does not make you a “smug Tory”.
Change the party labels, and you will see that Mark Senior has carried out an amber-coloured version of the crime you imputed against Bob Sykes.
183 I can’t read everything so I missed it so thanks for responding. No what I was getting at was your epitomising the loss of the faithful. This country really? I’d have thought we figured very little in their thinking. Regarding developing world and it depends on relations with Beijing so I can’t imagine they would do it but then who thought that such a provocative at the time move as electing a Polish Pope would happen in 1979, would be a Chinese Pope with the explosive growth of Christianity in China. But that would be a truly global revolutionary act and would the Cardinals really have the nerve to do it..
199 refer 160
160 Punter, I am not sure whether I think Newport West is easier than Bridgend.
I don’t find Madeleine Moon impressive, whereas I think Paul Flynn is. So,
my feeling is that with a good candidate, the Tories could take them both
with the same sort of swing.
That is, I think a Tory majority of 75 seats would see both of them fall.
Does anyone have the analysis for others in the S Times poll. I just wondered if UKIP had vanished as a mentioned party?
Sorry just shooting myself, didnt read the top of the trhread properly BANG, bye
202 I recognise your point but I think the USP of candidates ranks far behind local demographics and its clear the (admittedly slowing) House price boom in the Capital has pushed young pros further east on the Housing ladder not within the City but within the Constituency commuting to Cardiff. So and I’m interested you think the Tories could only take it with a 60+ majority, I think the Tories could conceivably do it with a 35+ majority UK. By contrast nothing changes in Bridgend economy wise there are entrenched areas of Labour and Tory strength, with a different result only possibly on a major major anti Labour wave circa 1983
200 - Pope Benedict celebrated the Mass before the Conclave went into session. He turned the Church’s guns from Communism to Modernism - it is a matter of priority for him to see the resurrection of faith in the West. The name Benedict was not chosen to emulate Benedict XV as the Pope who allowed Italians to vote in elections - it was chosen as a psychic wink to Catholic Communitarians who follow thinkers like Alasdair MacIntyre, who makes a point of basing his philosophy around Aquinas and St Benedict (patron saint of small communities and of Europe) [see the chapter "Aristotle v Neitzche? Trotsky and St Benedict" in 'After Virtue']. The project is rescuing moral discourse from the secular liberal language which it currently uses, and to return ‘Christendom’ to virtue ethics and faith. That doesn’t mean the developing church is not important, but Benedict XVI has put more of a focus on the moral state of the West than his predecessor. The liberal, even disobedient (if you follow Holy Smoke), nature of the Bishops’ conference of England and Wales has apparently meant that the UK is to come under particular scrutiny when a vacancy is created.
A Chinese Pope would be a massive shock! There is only one Chinese Cardinal (that we know about) at the moment, and he has retired due to terminal lung cancer. The Pope may elevate another soon, but this has yet to be confirmed I think. A South American or African Pope (Arinze?) is likely to come first.
Mike - O/T sorry, but with many of us heading off to warmer climes in less than a week’s time, could I suggest that we have a thread dedicated to memorable political events during 2007 and to start the ball rolling, here’s my suggestion care of Quetin Letts:
http://tinyurl.com/2mr5ps
re 206 why all the papabile talk at the moment? Is the Pope at death’s door?
188 Vince Cable has rejected Cameron’s little plan…
LOL! Proof if proof were needed of the LibDems’ natural affinities, not forgetting also that Mr Cable was once a fully paid-up member of the Labour party.
208 - No, not at all! This is just the continuation of a discussion Punter and I were having: How will the market on next Cardinal Archbishop of Westminster affect the liklihood of an English Pope next time around? The former job is likely to be coming up for grabs soon. A great candidate would stand a slight chance in the College of Cardinals, whereas if a non-Englishman is given the job, the ‘next Pope to be English’ market collapses.
Surely the Italians will mutiny if they don’t get another Pope soon?
Just watched to John Majors interview with Mr Marr. Very adept at putting the boot in I thought…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/check/player/nol/newsid_7140000/newsid_7146700?
PS re 204 I missed !
Previous thread: mike well done to you and your family re Julia
Poll: proves that con are set to govern for the next 100 years!
Various above - we love Mark Senior: as we say on ‘Strictly’, ‘He’s my favourite’!
189 - Ave it is the future and has called everything correctly so far
Andrew Neil seems to have been around forever, so I was surprised to hear him refer to Vince Cable as having been his tutor at University. Crikey, what age must that make VC?
213 Yes, as stjohn so eloquently expressed the happy event “We are a grandparent.”
Congrats Mike!
206 Err the Cardinal of Hong Kong is still around i hope is he not. Nothing said in the press of that sort
215 - Cable is 6 yrs older - 64
Lot of rather airy talk about decapitation strategies upthread.
There was never a plan to remove prominent Conservatives - just a plan to win the most marginal seats. It so happened that the latter included quite a few of the former.
Otherwise we would have been targeting William Hague and not Adrian Flook.
Premier between arsenal and man u now - liverpool and chelsea out of it - only the champions league for them!
218 Thanks Alex, as I thought - attempted vanity on Neil’s part, but the truth will always out. BTW does he wear a syrup - his hairstyle doesn’t seem to have changed in 30 years?
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/16/ron_paul_raises_millions_in_todays_boston_tea_party_event/
and
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/12/ron-paul-meets.html
$13.8m this quarter, with two weeks to go is impressive. $10m in a day is phenomenal. Huckabee has raised $2.3m to up to Q4.
He can’t win the nomination, but with that level and diversity of fundraising, he can do something. If anyone figures out what this means, could they please post here.
For a record of fundraising for all candidates, go to:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/finances/index.html
For a record of where they are doing campaign stops:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/schedules/pastevents/index.html#candidate99
To see who is talking about whom:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/12/15/us/politics/DEBATE.html#
re 136. Mike Smithson, “But hey - this is politics and anything is allowable but I do think that the Tories who went on and on about “Grandpa Ming” should perhaps step aside from this discussion.”
To be fair it was not his age, but his persona (not that I kept banging on about either) that did for him. We did want him to hang on until the next election though
Re 146, Tpkfar “Watching the bickering going on today “You’re worse than we are” “well you started it” or even “it was only part of our multi-stranded approach” only makes me glad not to be associated with either party. Sitting back and laughing - they really are as bad as each other!!”
Arguably so, but much nicer than the nasty Liberal Democrats.
217 - He is. I was referring to His Eminence Paul Cardinal Shan Kuo-hsi, S.J. (Republic of China/Taiwan) as the sole named Chinese Cardinal, who has been very ill. Joseph Cardinal Zen Ze-kiun is, as far as I know in good health, and still very active.
Please don’t read anything into the fact that I didn’t consider Hong Kong to be part of China - I was just thinking of it as a country all of its own!
222 Fair point. No one thinks of Paddy as “old” in the way they do Ming because his image is dynamism action etc etc etc Whereas in fact Paddy is three years older
Re 155, Chris A “re 154 as a LibDem supporter I’d be horrified if they cozied up to Labour and wouldn’t vote for them in that scenario. I reckon I’m not alone in that thinking either.”
Not alone, no but in a minority, at least among the activists.
225 This sort of slip is one of the many *many* reasons I would not be suitable for the Diplomatic Corps.
224 Nothing read. But do you think the Cardinals would have the nerve ever..
222 I do think that the Tories who went on and on about “Grandpa Ming” should perhaps step aside from this discussion.”
With Ming, wasn’t there also a certain element of “if you live by the sword, etc..”
225 - If Paddy was leader now, they might!
229 - I don’t know. It would be unbelievably risky, and if it angered the Chinese Communist Party, it could set back conversions to Catholicism back 50 years. China treats Catholicism and Protestantism as separate religions (alongside Islam, Daoism, and Buddhism - only five are recognised), and it could punish the Vatican for the more strident approach by liftin restrictions on Protestantism, whilst continuing to suppress Catholic worship. There has been a real detente in the last five years, and I don’t think the Curia would risk losing the progress made.
Best back the South Americans
227 - Could probably get a position in the BBc though - just seen them referring to the current ANC leadership election, with the comment that the winner will be their candidate for the 2009 Presidential Elections.
OT does anyone think that for once we may not have the X Factor winner at No1 for Christmas?
If anyone thinks there may be something to beat him, there’s a killing to be made.
225. More like three months older…
220,Whilst I would certainly agree Liverpool are out of the Premiership race,as Chelsea are only 4 points adrift of Man U I’d say they’re still in the mix (P.S As a Hammer,I will not be sending many Xmas cards to Evertonians after the last week:lol:)
Mr Sheridan is helping Police with their enquiries:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7146907.stm
A new progressive alliance to destabilise British politics sounds like a very good idea.
Re 225 Punter “222 Fair point. No one thinks of Paddy as “old” in the way they do Ming because his image is dynamism action etc etc etc Whereas in fact Paddy is three years older”
And no one would call him grandpa! (Well, and live at least
{Obviously I expect that his grand children probably can})
Sorry if this has been mentioned before but has anyone seen the Labour seats prices on SI and SF?
Two point arb if SI web price is tradeable. SF good in £402.
Tempted to buy Labour seats @ 268 rather than take the little arb. I don’t think Lab can sink below 260 without a massive scandal.
Re 239, EDW “Tempted to buy Labour seats @ 268 rather than take the little arb. I don’t think Lab can sink below 260 without a massive scandal.”
Funny you should say that, as I have yet another brewing though I am waiting until I have tied up the lose ends.
Mind you part one is already on my blog.
239 Next week hasnt happened yet….
240. Oh really…when we going to have the rest?
240
A scandal a day
keeps the voters at bay.
240
That’s the problem, I don’t think Zelig Abrahams has finished yet.
As a floating voter myself more interested in the betting side of things (prof. punter) I think Joe public voter has simply seen enough of Labour for a while. The only one who might save them is John Denham, I would vote for him over the toffs, maybe. He needs to move from educ to home office.
Re 241, Maggie Thatcher Fan, “239 Next week hasnt happened yet…. ;)”
Re 240, Yokel,”240. Oh really…when we going to have the rest?”
Don’t know. It is a matter of tracking things down I am afraid which relies on other people.. a bit.
re 243, Madasafish “240
A scandal a day
keeps the voters at bay.
:-)”
It has to be said it will only add to donorgate rather than being completely new.
Re 244 EDW “240
That’s the problem, I don’t think Zelig Abrahams has finished yet.”
No he hasn’t. The angle I may be able to come in on may go further up the food chain as well.
“As a floating voter myself more interested in the betting side of things (prof. punter) I think Joe public voter has simply seen enough of Labour for a while. The only one who might save them is John Denham, I would vote for him over the toffs, maybe. He needs to move from educ to home office.”
He could save them a bit, but if he did so it would lead to a bigger defeat when the time came.
Benedict
Hold on, are you suggesting that Labour are lying about this woman’s current relationship to the party apparatus? Possibly even to the cops?
240 You have a blog Benedict? My, you keep that quiet.
247. COULD BE lying
248. Light under a bushel….
Re 247 Yokel, “Hold on, are you suggesting that Labour are lying about this woman’s current relationship to the party apparatus? Possibly even to the cops?”
Well I don’t know what they have said this week, but yes I am suggesting Labour is lying.
Re 248, Peter from Putney “240 You have a blog Benedict? My, you keep that quiet.”
It’s my modesty
However as we have met you may find it here
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
113 (Northern Crock )
Wandering slightly off topic but to an appropriate comparison, IMHO, this reminds me of the R101 airship, one of the flagship projects of the Macdonald government (sort of the Millennium Dome of the 1930s). Shortly before its massively publicised maiden voyage to what is now Pakistan, it was discovered that the vehicle had no certificate of airworthiness; the principal reason being that it was a badly designed and shoddily built flying (well, only just flying - it was several tons over its originally designed weight) deathtrap, with the result that no-one in any senior position at the Air Ministry was prepared to issue one.
A couple of days before the flight, a junior minion was told to write one out, which the Minister of Aviation, Lord Thompson, then signed. The R101 only just made it over the Channel. It crashed into a hill just north of Paris and blew up, killing all but five on board (Thompson included).
I suspect that a similar approach will be taken to the paperwork in the highly unlikely event that Branson does actually buy Northern Crock, and that end result of the whole episode will be broadly similar, too.
Re 252, Mrs Myrtle Proper, Thanks for that comparison.
On this *amazing* poll of today, couple of interesting points:
(1) Social Class - Labours deficit amongst the ABC1 group of voters (i.e. the group most likely to turnout and vote) is staggering. 49%-Con, 28%-Lab, 15%-Lib Dem. A 21% deficit. TWENTY-ONE PERCENT. It’s essentially an absolute Conservative Majority; especially if you tack on 1% for UKIP to reach the magic “50%” figure
Conversely, The Tories have only a small lead amongst C2DE group. Only 39% Con to 36% Lab. Not so good.
*If* Labour fail to get their vote out in 2010, they are going to get MULLERED. Turnout will be crucial.
(2) Regionality - If you take out Scotland, the vote shares are 47.4% Con versus 31.6% Lab. If you took out Wales, it would be even worse for Labour. The Conservatives must be pushing 48.5% of the vote in England. Tack on UKIP, you’ve got your 50% absolute majority again. England is a Conservative country.
Word of warning though; this might not be quite so good in terms of seats gained. The Tories are stacking up FAR too many votes in the South, where they now lead Labour by a whopping 30%. They need to “spread the love” a bit more.. Especially “oop north”. The Midlands will probably deliver the goods, in terms of seats, on a UNS. Not so sure about the North…
Lord Ashcroft said in his book; “Wake Up and Smell the Coffee” that the Conservatives needed to rebuild their historical alliance of Middle Class Professionals, Women and the aspirational working class to win an election.
As the evidence shows, Cameron is well on the way to delivering the first two. If he can just capture those strivers/aspirers in the 25-45 age bracket, he’s got it nailed.
If Cameron can hold this Conservative lead until September 2008 I think, barring a catastrophe, it’s all over for Labour.
243 lol
191. Jolly good Matthew. I’ll donate my winnings to charity so don’t feel too bad about it.
254. Interesting analysis.
“The treasury has no money left, its broke. 36 billion deficit (if I remember correctly)”
Clearly rubbish. The Treasury can always borrow money from the EMF. If that is too politically ’sensitive’, so what, the treasury own the money and the printing presses. we can print more money.
30 billion loaned to NRK can always be recovered by elinminating all defense spending - which is a little less. Then to make up the shortfall we can increase immigration which will make Britain more productive.
I dont know what the fuss is about.
How are the 50-60 age group looking - ie. the group (of former natural Conservatives) that are widely acknowledged to have suffered particularly badly through the late eighties, early nineties, and until recently polls suggested had never come close to returning after they deserted in 1997.
257 - lol
139, Chris A,
Yes in all honesty I am sure Cameron will be the next PM.
Also I think its more than evens, in that its odds on the Conservatives will be the largest party, so it follows he will be asked to form a minority government.
Then do a Wilson like 66 and win a large working majority two years later.
That is the strategy.
The time for change is kicking in, but a sense of, to surely not to the other lot.
However I am no fan of Brown but something at the back of my mind keeps niggling away saying it won`t be that straight forward for the next two years, for either Brown or Cameron.
Thats why I hope the Lib Dems have a real oppurtunity and extract full pr and change politics in the uk big style.
So parties have to work together , not just platitudes from politicians of the two main parties.
Oh dear. Couldn’t work out whether John Major’s intervention was particularly well advised, but when the best Labour can come up with in response in Stephen Pound then their heart clearly isn’t in the fight.
244
I think that Straw and Denham would beat Cam and Os. It’s very hard to call, buy they have no one else.
Milli’ is a busted flush, Smith is all front (what’s next - topless darts?) Harman makes me almost as sick as Sion Simone, oh nearly forgot I saw David Mills walking up the High Street the other day, sweating like a pig, I wonder why, nothing to do with the his forthcoming trip to Milan! If that goes bad it will be a 15 Daves on this site, maybe more.
Re 261, Alex “Oh dear. Couldn’t work out whether John Major’s intervention was particularly well advised, but when the best Labour can come up with in response in Stephen Pound then their heart clearly isn’t in the fight.”
Yes, the fight back against Major looked weak, and the BBC appeared to make it look a bit evens on the sleaze front.
Re 262 EDW “I think that Straw and Denham would beat Cam and Os. It’s very hard to call, buy they have no one else.”
Well, they could do it, but they would end up leading a government with a small majority if at all, with a despondent and ill disciplined party. It will make 1992 1997 look like a model for how a government should prepare for an election.
“Milli’ is a busted flush, Smith is all front (what’s next - topless darts?) Harman makes me almost as sick as Sion Simone, oh nearly forgot I saw David Mills walking up the High Street the other day, sweating like a pig, I wonder why, nothing to do with the his forthcoming trip to Milan! If that goes bad it will be a 15 Daves on this site, maybe more.”
Agreed. I still can’t see why (apart from his relationship with a senior Labour figure) the tax man has not sought to prosecute him for lying, as he originally said the £300K was a gift so tax free but changed that when it became inconvenient. I know a few tax collectors who would have loved to have had a go.
258 - we are of course not talking about the same group of people. The 50-60 group of 1992, will be 68 to 78 by 2010. It is not a matter of winning people back - but winning people over as they get older. Or getting for example those who were 20 in 1992 and did not vote but may vote Tory aged 37 in 2010.
264 - 30-40 at the time.
258,
That group were well shafted by the conservatives by two recessions, think they will sit it out at most.
Sheridan charged with perjury..
ie. those moving up the housing ladder, as they started families, who were particularly hard hit by negative equity and the recession. Negative Equity was not a particular problem for those who could afford to ride out the fall in house prices - for those who need to move as their existing properties become inadequate to their needs it is/was a serious problem.
I think it’s a fairly well observed phenomenom in polls in recent years - a group which disrupted the normal trend of people becoming Conservative as they got older.
David Mill quote
‘I told no lies but I turned some very tricky corners’
Yeah, right, Dave, whatever.
I have a particular dislike of that crowd as I live in Camden. All the wealthy labour wimim have roots here, Alistair C lives near me and I think his wife is a govenor of my old school, Milli went to Haverstock, Brown’s wife knows my sister (or used to) and Julia Hobsbawn (spelling?) who had that little labour pr company. Sean McCaulay I was at school with, the list goes on and on. When labour lost camden council it was joyous - truly, and all over car parking too. Shame.
267,
Yes and Major on TV today going on about sleaze.
Hope they arent going to ask Aitken and Archer about there experiences.
Re 269 EDW I gather these people are not your favourites then
It is difficult to imagine GB moving over gracefully
269
They make me puke, they all live in expensive homes and they promised us they money we need to do up crumbling social housing stock but when the tenants voted against an ALMO, labour wouldn’t stump up the money. Now the cons, and libdem counci is having to sell of empty stock to raise cash for repairs but it is a drop in the ocean.
When this gov. finally fails someone should do an audit of the money wasted.
ie.
Dome
Iraq
VAT fraud
Tax Credits
Asylum scams
Benefit fraud
Student loan fraud
NHS waste/tourism (recent story in press, £700k on one overseas woman but cancer suffererrs have to go to High Court to get drugs they need)
Again the list goes on and on. If I had my way Goldman Sachs and Tesco would run everything, and I aint joking neither. I wouldn’t trust Brown and Balls to give the dog it’s breakfast.
Brown the massive brain, do me a favour, I worked in the city for a number of years in law and then the markets and I have met and heard massive brains and Brown ain’t even close.
108.
“Sir Richard Branson doesn’t have a banking licence.”
So you mean he might actually be a relatively safe person to give your money to then?
274.
“Dome
Iraq
VAT fraud
Tax Credits
Asylum scams
Benefit fraud
Student loan fraud
NHS waste/tourism”
Disgraceful indeed. But which of this list do you SERIOUSLY expect anyone to believe would have been any different under the Tories?
273 “I worked in the city for a number of years in law and then the markets…”
Not with Goldman Sachs by any chance, EDW?
Are you new to PB.com, if so welcome.
277
No didn’t work for GS, they are very picky! But a great firm, look at how they hedged the sub-prime crisis. I do own shares in Tesco though!
My main interest is sports spreadbetting but the golden days are long gone. City index used to run a book and get it wrong all the time. It was heaven. The dot com boom was great too. Did one great arb on Lastminute.com on the first day closing price……ahhhhhhh, the memories come flooding back. The famous Shane Warne arb ‘Is he Warne out?’ it was called that netted me 6k+,
http://www.spreadtrades.com/
now out of business, shame.
220 - Ave it you are a sod. I’m in Canada and have spent all day avoiding websites for talk of the footy. I was enjoying a good read of political betting and was to depart to Hoops bar in Toronto for a live replay of both games. I now know the flipping result of both matches (or can make a good stab at it!)
Arrrrghhhhhhh
219 “Lot of rather airy talk about decapitation strategies upthread.
There was never a plan to remove prominent Conservatives - just a plan to win the most marginal seats. It so happened that the latter included quite a few of the former.”
Jon - your interpretation isn’t my recollection of the LibDems’ strategy at all and isn’t the first sentence of your second para above just about yesterday’s glimpse of the blindingly obvious!
re 261 I think Straw’s a better bet as the next PM than Cameron. I’m not doubting that the Tories will have the most seats at the next election.
Re 273, EDW, Fair enough.
276: I know Labour can’t do a better job so am willing to give the Tories a go at sorting things out.
re 274 NICE is one of the best things this government has done. Now if they had the guts to say that the NHS cannot afford everything but we’re going to set up this robust, independent body to decide how we’re going to ration health spending then things would be even better. There are drugs licensed every month with the propensity to completely bankrupt the NHS.
My hospital spends well over £1m per year on just two drugs - one for blindness and one for arthritis; 15 years ago when I started there the entire drug budget was only £4m, it is now over £15m.
Re 281.Chris A “re 261 I think Straw’s a better bet as the next PM than Cameron. I’m not doubting that the Tories will have the most seats at the next election.”
Presumably on the basis that Labour will change leader before the election?
Earlier I posted that I thought the big story of today was the Stelzer article in the Sunday Times. The Spectator’s Fraser Nelson adds some more insight into British Banks losing faith in the UK.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/406131/downing-street-and-the-bank-of-england-at-odds.thtml
“I hear that British banks are already running to the European Central Banks for loans, as they have lost confidence in this country - and that all this has deeply damaged London’s financial reputation,”
Oh dear.
276 - well they considered and rejected tax credits as a bureaucratic nightmare when they were in Govt, so that’s one!
278 There are quite a number on here, incl yours truly, who are also interested in Sports betting - was spreadtrades to which you refer, the sporting equivalent of PB.com?
The Warne thing is clearly a joke, probably with sexual undertones, I need to think about it!
281 I’m aware that Straw has many fans on here as a possible successor to Brown, but isn’t he a bit “yesterday” and just a tad …..dull?
219 Jon “Lot of rather airy talk about decapitation strategies ….
There was never a plan to remove prominent Conservatives -”
Oh yes there was, we had threads on this site talking about them.
Please pay attention!
http://tinyurl.com/2fmcn3
276
I agree in part, but imagine if you will that the cons. were in power and Thatcher or Major bombed Iraq, labour would be screaming ‘baby killers’ etc from the rooftops but because ‘Tony’ is/was a ’straight kinda guy’ it’s all okay then? It really does show how bad things got for the cons. that they did so badly last time out despite Iraq. Only the late Robin Cook had the balls to walk, a clever man to be sure. Sorry to see Tony Banks go too even if he did support Chelsea at least he was a real person unlike Balls & Co.
The real prize for me would be Ken and the Yardie Boys out of City Hall but Boris is a clown and I will lay him in size if the odds are right nearer the time and there is some liquidity on BF. I have a nice bank after a killing on Ricky Hatton, my boxing contacts are pretty good, I laid him at just the right time and waited for Vegas to move the line and closed out, I rarely go in to any event with an open position. I could not believe the odds given his opponent is the best since Hagler but never underestimate the stupid british punter. England football team I lay every time, stupid money there, too.
re 285 exactly
287 - it is somewhat astonishing that the Treasury are apparently hiding behind the forthcoming HoC Treasury committee report to delay taking action. I’d be surprised if anyone can find any previous evidence of the Treasury taking the slightest notice of their reports!
288
Shane Warne market was called ‘is he warne out’ by Cantor Sports who mispriced the market and so we created a quasi arb with other firms and made a killing.
I heard the market maker was sacked but not sure if true.
Here is the result copied from spreadtrades.
31 Jul 01 Warne (Ashes Series) cross market trade 138 ticks
17 Jul 01 Warne (Ashes Series) cross market trade 178 ticks
14 Jul 01 Hollioakes (B&H Cup) cross performance trade 10 ticks
05 Jul 01 Warne (Ashes Series) cross market trade 285 ticks
Spreadtrades was a paid for service run by ex city traders. Now gone because they set up a betting ex which went bust. Betfair took their clients.
Forget Hollioakes, not relevant to that trade.
EDW - Welcome. A number of interesting posts but I’ll only comment on one, because I think you’ll enjoy it.
Your comment about Tescos etc running Britain raised a smile because it reminded me of a suggestion by the late, great Alex Bird. He thought that MI5 and MI6 should be run by Hills and Ladbrokes. He reckoned those guys knew everything, before anybody else. In a lifetime making a very good living from the track, he never figured out how they did it.
“Sir Richard Branson doesn’t have a banking licence” - I didn’t know you needed a licence for it - Oh, banking!
274 I agree NICE is needed but the NHS is the National Health Service not the International Health Service.
The cons will only gain power and keep it when they learn that the true religion of this country is the NHS; it is an NHS doctor who pulls you screaming in to this life and ushers you gently on to the next is it not?
296 - Remember that idea that the Pentagon had for trading in terrorist indents, incidence of wars etc etc?
298 - well, in an NHS hospital, provided you don’t mistime it.
There seem to be many people ( Steven Pound et al ) who rush to GBs defence saying he is the most honest man they know
It looks to me like the same defence that was made of TB when he was prime minister - but now he has gone no one defends him
Should we believe GBs defenders today - or are we just observing a strategy to defend and protect the top man at all costs because when he is exposed the whole house comes down -
Now that GB has emerged from the shadowy world he inhabited in No 11 I feel the general public is becoming fully aware that GB is one of the key archtitects of new labour and all that it stands for…..
298 Agreed, but don’t you mean the National Health Services? That is to say the de luxe version for the Scots and the more basic version for the rest of the taxpayers?
re 298 well I hope not, that sort of thing led to Harold Shipman and John Bodkin Adams, amongst other, up before the courts.
The NHS of course should treat foreigners and it should also get the money back if they’re not entitled to treatment, but hopsital finance departments will be run off their feet just ensuring that the reclaim the non-tariff drugs back from the relevant PCTs.
286. Also from Fraser Nelson: “Even by the standards of Team Brown, it is simply insane to brief against one’s central banker in this way.”
This encapsulates the Brown psychology in a nutshell. The son-of-the-manse (yawn) wants to be good but he just can’t stop himself being bad. He’s a formidable practitioner of ‘the big lie’, so when he said in his glowing speech to the Labour conference that his Revd father was the source of his ‘moral compass’, what he really meant was that from time to time he takes a sly peak at the aforementioned compass and then slopes off in the opposite direction.
A seasoned observer of human types will have observed that, while a few children take after their parents, the majority do not. The evidence suggests that Brown, guilt-ridden, falls squarely into the second category, but he has never come to terms with the fact. In other words, he suffers from an unresolved Oedipus conflict, and the crumbling phallus of Northern Rock is the inevitable result.
296
There was/is an american website where you can do this but maybe Intrade rule that market now. Was maybe run by a US university?
I must open an Intrade account some time. No fees for market makers I think?
For all you students of betting, the kind of contract they offer is known as an ‘all or nothing’.
re 304 I never thought we’d ever be discussing crumbling phalluses on here!
Also pretty astonishing to learn that the “light touch” regulatory regime was put in place against the advice of the then Governor. Who was the expert brains behind the scheme, advising the lay members of the Government?
296 O/T, PtP - After piling onto Huckerbee at 6-1 with Hills last Sunday thanks to your excellent spot, I’ve been seeking to lay a good bit of this off on Betfair at around 4.5-1 or better. This is somewhat cash guzzling - is there a more effective way, please, of achieving the same objective e.g. by means of a spread bet?
re 302 that was an inevitable consequence of devolution. Like all Labour’s changes the consequences were never thought through and I’m quite glad it keep coming back to bite them on the bum periodically.
303
The case I reffered to was an African woman who gave birth to prem. baby. What can the NHS do? It must treat but the 700k will not be repaid, I’ll wager.This is meat and drink to the BNP etc. who keep beating Labour in locals I see which is very sad. The answer is mandatory health insurance or no UK visa.
I have read stories of health tourists landing at Heathrow and pretending to fall and going by amublance to have a hip fixed when the injury is years old.
When they are given the bill they walk (limp) out the door. I feel we have become a joke nation really, I am struggling to see the point of the UK any more. If you look at what we have which is really world class, the city of london, the premier league, and they are all staffed by foriegners (luckily)!
It has taken labour ten years to bring in points based visas - crazy really.
305 - There was/is an american website where you can do this but maybe Intrade rule that market now. Was maybe run by a US university?
Iowa State University I think - but I believe you could only use “play money” on there.
308 Yes that’s the big downside of using the traditional bookmakers, PfP. It does lock up funds. On the up side, they are often very slow to react to polls and political events. You can’t have it all ways.
No Peter, I haven’t an answer to that. I tend to use Betfair to ease the problem but it’s not a perfect solution.
Btw, I wouldn’t be in any hurry to lay off that 6/1. Look at the Nomination charts. Huckabee is a close second to Guiliani and there’s every likelihood he will overtake soon. I think his price will be down to 3/1 by Christmas, and if you can afford to wait until he wins Iowa, which now seems highly likely, you’d be looking at 5/2 top end.
Cash flow problems? Just cut down on the Christmas presents, PfP!
310 I don’t believe any insurance policy would have paid out on the case to which you refer and had the woman in question lied about being pregnant on either her insurance proposal or visa application, what do you do, allow the baby to die - of course not.
O/T Lib Dem Leadership Competition
With 127 entries being received before the competition closed at 3pm yesterday, the “exit poll” figures are as follows:
Predicted winner: Clegg 96, Huhne 30, Tie 1
Overall average prediction: Clegg 53.71%
Average of Clegg predictions = 55.48 (max 70.00, min 50.05)
Average of Huhne predictions = 51.86 (max 56.12, min 50.01)
If anyone would like the detailed spreadsheet, with players sorted by prediction, please drop me a line at electiongame@yahoo.co.uk
Thanks & good luck.
Why is Milliband not seen as a credible successor on this site? He seems to have kept his nose clean and has support among both the centre and the left of the party, he’s young and smart as well.
310
It depends on what the policy says, but you are prob. right unless she declared she was pregnant no payout. What happens when the rest of 3rd world eastern eur. joins the eu with full entry rights? The NHS is not coping now and will suffer further.
312 PtP - It’s not that I’m rushing to lay off Hckerbee and I take your point regarding the resulting betting impact of his likely win in Iowa. But I did go in quite big on this one, plus an additional hefty bet with Ladbrokes at 33-1 on him winning the ultimate prize, despite being discouraged by someone not a million miles from here from doing so (I am whistling at this juncture), which I also need to lay off at the appropriate time.
315
He is a lightweight who showed himself to be the monkey when the organ grinder failed to show to sign the EU treaty. I could smell his underwear accidents thru the telly. As I have said it is Straw and JD or nought but I expect topless darts fancies her chances.
316 - I don’t think the Eastern Europeans would travel all this way for the pleasure of being treated in an NHS hospital. They are quite happy with the free drugs but draw the line at using the hospitals. Many Poles, for example, go back home to have their babies.
315 Milliband is a Euro-vampire. His coffin has belgian soil inside.
From Previous thread - ” I do not for a momemnt think this is any coincidence as I believe the Conservatives have a slushfund of bad news for Labour which is being leaked at inconvenmient moments. ”
This is a very interesting point to ponder… do you think that the appointment of former News of the World editor Andy Coulson has allowed the Tories to fight a highly effective and continued hatchet job on Brown and Labour?
re 314 if it is a tie does Vince have the casting vote?
re 319 you’d probably also be better off booking an Easyjet flight to Poland to have your teeth done as well, and perhaps getting better treatment too.
Re 292, Chris A “re 285 exactly
by Chris A December 16th, 2007 at 9:03 pm ”
Well I can’t see Labour actually doing it. It is too hard to unseat a sitting Labour PM.
That said they could make his position look so bad he goes.. but then I think he has too thick a skin to notice.
316
According to the Daily Mail article the number of polish mums giving birth in NHS hosps. has quadrupled since 2004. I remember labour saying 30k poles coming but the real number was 600k.
Labour will not be happy until the population is 100m and density levels are like that in Hong Kong. We are already short of water, gas, electric, social housing, hosp beds, good skool places, space on the roads, seats on train, you name it. No wonder the working class is leaving in record numbers. Will the last tax payer to leave Bliar’s Britain please turn out the lights. One day soon , Brown will be on the front of the Sun with his head in a lightbulb. Just like Windbag did.
323 Chris A. Anyone considering booking an Easyjet flight ANYWHERE doesn’t need their teeth examined as urgently as their head
Two words..Alan Johnson.
325. is this a problem if they foot the bill themselves?
Ralph at 133 - fair enough, all forgiven! I don’t mention other parties or cnadidates when canvassing unless someone raises them - in fact I don’t even mention my own, just say I’m the local MP doing a survey, how would they vote? They generally know which party I’m from, but it’s best not to try to nudge them or you get (even more) unreliable results. I won’t pursue the negative campaigning theme for now - we’ve all said our bit, eh?
Socrates: I don’t know the answer to your visa question, I’m afraid! It sounds odd to me.
alex asked about the baby-boomers’ political trends: haven’t checked the poll, but in general I find I’m getting a better reception from the young (under 30) and the baby-boomers (50-65) than from the other groups. We had a small fund-raiser tonight with 33 people there (including an anti-Ashcroft Tory), and I think they were nearly all in one of those two groups. OK, people in the 30-50 range tend to have younger kids so are less free for this sort of event, but it’s probably not just that.
re 324 but the Brothers haven’t been in this position before. Callaghan was perhaps slight favourite in the Autumn of 1978, and by the time he’d done his Marie Lloyd then it was too late to change. In 1970 even Ted Heath was surprised to win, so come early 2009 with Lab still 13% in the polls then the natives are going to start getting restless as scores of them look forward to their P45s and lack of tens of thousands in expenses to pay their mortgages.
re 325 EDW you do your arguments no good with such wild exageration. At 100m we’d be about as crowded as the Netherlands which is hardly an over-populated hell hole. To get to the HK level of packing there would have to be more of us than in all of China.
325.
So when the kids of the Polish mums are paying for the NHS, pensions etc in 40 yrs time you’ll be refusing such services then?
321
Yes.
The continued seepage of bad news for Labour - at critical times - just when the last one has died down - shows the guiding hand of a master who has done it all before.
This is not an amateur PR man’s one trick pony but a carefully thought out strategy lasting months if not years .
I can only say this by observation as I have no inside knowledge but to me it looks like a well thought out , researched campaign - which incidentally cannot come on the cheap.
Re 314, Paul Maggs, Many thanks for the update on the competition entries.
Interesting spreads on the predictions. All the people backing Huhne, (I am one) think he will only just win it where as some of those backing Clegg think he will storm it!
325
If they pay the bill fine, but that does not help the fact that there is a shortage of midwives here.
As for dentists, under labour half the country can’t find an nhs one.My nhs dentist is polish and she took over from an Indian and a German Turk so I have no problem with people coming here WHO MAKE A CONTRIBUTION.
331
I live in Camden we have 16,000 people on the housing register. Do the math. Labour has built no social housing here and continues to allow the sell off of council homes to for profit landlords under right to buy, they still advertise in my local paper.
I do not share your dream of seeing greenbelt land turned in to one of those nice areas in France where the locals firebomb the police.
325/321 Yeah you lost a bit of cred there, EDW. You don’t want to get lumped in with the Creatures after such a promising start.
Nite all.
Re 330, Chris A “re 324 but the Brothers haven’t been in this position before. Callaghan was perhaps slight favourite in the Autumn of 1978, and by the time he’d done his Marie Lloyd then it was too late to change.”
Well, thing is it is still very very hard to get rid of the man. I think they have to have some sort of motion at conference organised ages in advance. Not like a proper political party where they can have their throats cut in the dead of night
Re 336, EDW, “I live in Camden we have 16,000 people on the housing register. Do the math. Labour has built no social housing here and continues to allow the sell off of council homes to for profit landlords under right to buy, they still advertise in my local paper.”
The law specifically forbids that, so I presume it is not quite how you say, but I may be wrong and would be interested in hearing more.
Re 337, Peter the Punter G’night
323 - the only time I have had to go to hospital since childhood was in a small town in Poland after I put a glass lampshade through my hand - and I can’t tell you how impressed I was. Immaculately clean, seen within 10 mins of arrival, a doctor who spoke a few words of English (’not deep’ was all I needed to hear) and I was stitched and bandaged up, and back teaching 90 mins later.
And it was all free as I had an English passport.
We clearly need to stop those ineligible from sponging off our services, but for all the reasons the Poles are settling here, my experiences suggest that it ain’t for the health service!
339
last time I looked there was an ad that said something like. ‘Council tenants thinking of leaving your home - we can help etc. Perhaps the law has changed since then but this went on for years under labour and we are left here in camden with massive social housing problems.
re 336 but France is less than half as packed as the UK so population density and rioting argument doesn’t stack up as well. The truth is that we’d be fine with a population of 100m and there would still be loads of countryside as well. The population doubled in the last century but those living at the end of it had much better prospects than those at the beginning.
Re 341, EDW “last time I looked there was an ad that said something like. ‘Council tenants thinking of leaving your home - we can help etc. Perhaps the law has changed since then but this went on for years under labour and we are left here in camden with massive social housing problems.”
Well, that is not the Labour council doing it, it is private companies. What is interesting is that loop holes in the right to buy system were closed off under the Conservatives as they arose and were sufficiently abused. However this governments reaction has been to devalue the right to buy which is a shame, as it could have just closed yet another avenue for abuse.
re 340 tpfkar don’t tell the English nationalists or they’ll all be after you wanting to know how you got one!
336
if 100m is good presumably 150m is better and 200m better still? Same for the planet 6bn now and in serious trouble so 10bn will sort that out?
And as for taxes, if labour hadn’t allowed incapacity benefit to become a career option the future tax situation would be much better.
329- Nick Palmer- you are the constant gent of pbCOM. You take a heckuva lot of personal abuse here, some of it nasty gloating jibes at your job (i.e Harry earlier), other just pretty hideous personal stuff. You never let any of this get to you personally.
re 234 Yokel you might be on to soemthing. Rhydian wuz robbed perhaps and comments like this are being reported by the Telegraph: Henry1234 said: “I also tried to vote many times for Rhydian and got the engaged tone… That Leon won is a joke - for the first time ever I wont be buying the X Factor single.”
re 345 I didn’t say it would be good rather that it wouldn’t be the end of the world you presage.
302.”Agreed, but don’t you mean the National Health Services? That is to say the de luxe version for the Scots and the more basic version for the rest of the taxpayers?”
Can you point me in the direction of this deluxe version of the NHS in Scotland?
O/T-”Kerrey for Clinton, Lieberman for McCain”
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2007/12/kerrey_for_clin.html
“Clinton Hits Iowa With New Energy”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/16/clinton-hits-iowa-with-new-energy/
348
I don’t agree, the more people who come to the UK from less developed countries the more Co2, the more landfill, the more cars on the road etc. It is literally the end of the world at stake, that’s why they just had a big conference about it. The UK is still the dirty man of Europe and the population must be controlled until this changes.
I once spent the most depressing 24 hours of my life in a Czech hospital. I had acute glandular fever and was frog-marched there by my boss (and was too exhausted to resist), and stuck in the infectious wing. No possessions or visitors allowed. Most of the others in the ward had hepatitis, which is easy to catch if you have glandular fever.
I discharged myself first thing in the morning. The hospital was clean, but I did feel that I was in a Victorian asylum.
351. Wouldn’t they just go to Canada or France instead? Coming to Britain won’t increase global warming anymore than any migration from an LEDC to an MEDC.
re 351 Not so, Germany emits more CO2 than the UK
351
No it is worse if they come here, UK is has terrible recylying record, clogged roads equal cars sitting there burning fuel going nowhere. What are we going to do when the oil runs out and Roman and his mates turn off the gas? Light a candle? The only sensible course of action is zero global population growth.
re 352 How so? I presume you mean hepatitis A whose main vector is via the faecal-oral route
351 - We are not the dirty man of Europe. Another anecdote from my glorious Czech days - most houses in the town I lived in were heated by burning lignite in the homes. This is a filthy habit, and produces noxious smogs.
355. Or reducing the amount of carbon produced per person.
349 Can you point me in the direction of this deluxe version of the NHS in Scotland?
Free access to a range of drugs relating to the treatment of mental illness, etc. not available in England & Wales
Free nursing home care for the elderly in Scotland irrespective of means, compared with crippling costs of many hundreds of pounds per week in England & Wales for those with even modest levels of wealth, necessitating the sale of their homes, etc.
356 - I have no idea, but I just stayed clear of them! There were even bars on the windows to stop people escaping…
Come to think of it, perhaps it was an asylum.
347. That is one of the thinsg that put me on to this. The bookies see it as certain Leon will make it with w/o Leon markets up at Paddy Power.
Yes he is a worthy favourite because of one week selling power but his chances look less than any other previous winner.
For a start it is his victory. According to journos beforehand and the bookies this guy Rhydian was a shoo in, head and shoulders above others in what was regularly described as a fairly poor year for X Factor.
A mate of mine describes what he sees as a set up where Leon’s Michael Buble-esque voice was used to full effect. Each week they seemed to fond a song that Michael Buble had done a cover of that conveiently fitted into whatever genre the contestants had to do a song from and them got that bloke Leon to do the same song.
Secondly, there is an alternative and it is Number 1 right now. Its very Xmasy indeed, all warm and soft and happens to be for charitee. If anyone wants an outsider its the lovely Mutya Buena featuring troubled soul Amy Winelodge with a song that is also very seasonal sounding.
Thirdly we have the changing of how the charts are measured, because of downloads meaning old songs given public expsosure can coem back into the charts in a big way. Already a number of xmas oldies have come back into the charts this week including one of the best xmas songs ever released from Mariah Carey. There is always a chance that one of those could do it.
Fourthly and a bit of an incidental, he’s one of Danni Minogue’s choices on the show. From what I gather she’s not exactly popular.
I suspect that a number of other artists didnt launch for Xmas No.1 this year because of the usual X Factor job and may be regretting it now.
I’m going to see the tabloid headlines in the morning and see if there is a backlash.
I’m seriously pondering this one though I can’t deny that Leon should, on paper get the big one week sales total required to come home as No.1. If the press get stuck in, if radio gets stuck in with alternatives, then it might be worth a punt.
Re 260, SBS “Come to think of it, perhaps it was an asylum.”
Well, it had you in it
Re 360, SBS “Come to think of it, perhaps it was an asylum.”
Well, it had you in it
350. McCain’s own supporters believe he has to take New Hampshire to give him the boost he needs going forward. I posted a while back that if the Romney lead there over McCain fell to less than 10% then we might be in for something. McCain seems to be piling up endorsements in that state but still has serious work to do to overhaul Romney.
Can he do it though? He’s got a punchers chance.
350. McCain’s own supporters believe he has to take New Hampshire to give him the boost he needs going forward. I posted a while back that if the Romney lead there over McCain fell to less than 10% then we might be in for something. McCain seems to be piling up endorsements in that state but still has serious work to do to overhaul Romney.
Can he do it though? He’s got a punchers chance.
Double posting disease outbreak….if Gordon hears about it he’ll call a Cobra meeting.
362/363 You can say that again Benedict (but only if you must).
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4005347&page=1
Nice guy Huckabee’s backers turn a bit nasty on his opponents?
365-Yokel-He certainly has a chance, better than last week!And as you said McCain needs NH to be alive. He had a very good week, Lieberman, the Register and the Globe endorsement are exactly what he needed. The Huckabee surge will probably help him, if Huck holds Iowa, Romney will go to NH more weak than he is now. And I read that Giuliani is “scaling back his advertising buy there”. McCain has a good chance, he needs to take it now…
http://www.metro.co.uk/money/article.html?in_article_id=80037&in_page_id=36
House prices fall 3.2% last month. Asking prices in London are down 6.8% in a single month, or 4.5% down if you adjust for the effect of the staggered introduction of HIPs.
It’s looking serious…
“Time is running out for Mr Brown”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article3059931.ece
369. I posted recently posing a few questions about independents and their possible influence on the GOP race. More and more i see the same thing which amounts to I don’t agree with him on everything but you know where you stand with the man.
If I can get a handle on where they might go I think that will answer much of the McCain question.
372-Agree with you.”More and more i see the same thing which amounts to I don’t agree with him on everything but you know where you stand with the man.”
This is his strength, and this was obvious last week(or this?) when he criticized crop and ethanol subsidies in Iowa…
373. Yet, perhaps amazingly, Iowa’s biggest statewide newspaper came out for him, despite the fact he hasn’t bothered there at all.
Benedict any further news on this possible story of yours. Is it still a runner?
374-Yes, I was very surprised.
362 - had it been an asylum they would not have let me out so easily. (Especially as a LD).
tpfkar at 340: I think it’s disgraceful the way Brits like you are flooding into Poland, using their health service, emitting CO2 on their roads…
EDW: this is currently a predominantly Tory site, so you don’t have to work so hard at alienating everyone. I feel a pb.com leaflet coming on - “it’s a two-horse race - Palmer or EDW!”
346: Thanks, Tyson (vote Labour!).
Just to please everyone during this period of excessive eating and drinking..and to encourage you to make the most of it….
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/03de75c4-ac22-11dc-82f0-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Re 367, Peter from Putney “362/363 You can say that again Benedict (but only if you must).”
“If disaster strikes again, where will Brown hide?”
“It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that Brown is really Blair without the charisma. The former PM turned out to be the biggest Macavity of all in 2007, when he disappeared without trace after he stepped down in June. But perhaps the master of disguise had merely changed his face.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/features/display.var.1908417.0.If_disaster_strikes_again_where_will_Brown_hide.php
377
Nick, if you give it out, you have to take it back, simple as that.
As for PB being a mainly Tory site, it may be in terms of numbers but not in terms of noise. Certainly in the last ten years labour has mastered the art of attack policitcs to become the real nasty party as we saw with David Kelly etc. Sadly for labour, it seems they have yet to master defence tactics as shown by the polls.
As regards population control, it is entirely the fault of labour that the previously lifeless corpse of the BNP is now rattling it chains across much of England.
359.Right so we get a deluxe service because we have….
a)Free access to a range of drugs relating to the treatment of mental illness, etc. not available in England & Wales.
b)Free nursing home care for the elderly in Scotland irrespective of means.
Hmmm, well I must have missed this wonderful NHS utopia which is apparently all down to having a few free drugs available in our health service up here. You must have missed the shanigans going on in Scotland regarding our supposedly free care for the elderly.
I only live in Scotland and use the NHS up here, my perception is that spending more in one area of the service has often meant less spent in other areas, a fact conveniently not mentioned by the dead tree press down South because it would spoil the headline!
Would be a lot fairer if we didn’t just pick a one or two emotive differences, but rather compared all area’s of services and delivery?
Re 376 SBS “362 - had it been an asylum they would not have let me out so easily. (Especially as a LD).”
“Labour can win if it has the desire to make a fight of it
Ignore the hysteria and hyperbole - the government’s main problem is a collapse of morale among its MPs ”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2228589,00.html
Well the economic feel-good factor certainly isn’t going to rescue Labour:
“House prices in London have fallen by an average of £28,000 in the past month, as the capital sets the pace of an accelerating property downturn”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article3059977.ece
Good night if someone is there!
Truly horrendous news from Rightmove on the massive falls in house prices over the last month, particularly in London, where they report an almost incredible decline of 6.8% for December alone.
For anyone still awake, this must represent a substantial opportunity to make an immediate profit if you already have or can readily open an account with Spreadfair and bet NOW, before the markets adjust tomorrow morning.
The current sell price for the London House price index is 316.3 (as of a few minutes ago), which assumes a fall of approx fall of 1% in the month of December, compared with an index value of around the 319 level for November. With Rightmove reporting a hugely larger fall than this, an immediate profit appears to be there for the taking, by SELLING the LONDON HOUSE PRICE INDEX at or near to its present level of 316.3
Spreadfair’s monthly settlement values are based on the index calculated by the Halifax, which may, of course, differ to some extent from that of Rightmove, but will surely also reflect a sharply falling market and may indeed even exceed the decline to be reported today by Rightmove as some degree of panic/fear spreads.
Don’t bother with the separate UK-Wide index, where the fall in December is “only” around half that experienced in the Capital and therefore the profit potential is far more limited. London is where it’s at here and now for this market.
Sorry for shouting above to get the point across!
387 Mike - Assuming you see my post above in the early hours, please would you re-post it onto the next thread so that the really early birds might be able to take advantage of this opportunity before the markets reopen and prices are adjusted to reflect this staggering news.
You might even relish a punt yourself!
387 & 388
I have posted twice recently about this market and although not political as such, movements in house prices are bound to have a political dimension.
I should have made it clear that Spreadfair calculate unclosed bets on a quarterly basis, NOT monthly as implied above, that is to say at the end of December, March, June and September. It is possible therefore to buy/sell for each of these quarterly markets for the next 12 months. The closing value for each closing date corresponds exactly with the index values for London & UK-Wide published by the Halifax, usually within a week of the end of each month. The December 2007 values should therefore be available between 6-10 January.
57. But Neptune is blue already
178. I was using the subjunctive mood
31. Ha ha ha!
78. not normally, but only if compared with New Labour’s proto-authoritarianism.
150. and 268. Why am I not surprised? Could it be something to do with the fact that I was surprised that he won his libel case in the first place?
206. et al. In 2005 I went around telling everybody that the identity of the new pope was bound to be a surprise and unexpected, because they “always” (i.e. both times in 1978) choose a surprise winner who has not been mentioned in most of the speculation. Thus my prediction was a self-fulfilling prophesy when the firm favourite was (to me, unexpectedly) elected.
207. My brilliant and stunning victory in Ealing Southall.
314. Why is the result not being declared until Tuesday (instead of Monday), when the close of poll was 11am on Friday?
361. et al. History shows that the identity of the act which wins X-Factor is the least important thing in determining who actually has a successful career. Leon will disappear into obscurity within months anyway, and Rhydian will be successful anyway.
London is probably not far off the Population density of Hong Kong these days.
If the new Lib Dem leader tries to take on the Conservatives, they will not impress the core party vote. Labour are much weaker and they can attract a lot of dejected Labour voters if they play it right.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com