Was there insider trading on Brown’s election U-turn?
December 28th, 2007
Who were those who cashed in on the afternoon of October 6th?
While going through some of the old threads during the key moments of 2007 I came across the following discussion, reproduced below, which got by-passed by the dramatic news of Gordon’s general election U-turn on the afternoon of October 6.
For it suggests that a gambler or a group of gamblers who had inside information about the Prime Minister’s decision sought to turn what they knew into cash by betting on the timing of the general election before the decision was made public.
The thread shows that during the 45 minutes before the news was made known there was heavy betting resulting in a sharp easing of the price that nothing would be happening this year.
This is an edited version of the discussion thread on the site which took place as England were beating Australia in the key Rugby World Cup match in France. The betting being referred to is Betfair’s election date market
• “Hmm - 2007 GE last matched at 1.36-1, having been odds-on earlier today. Could there possibly be some seepage of info from the pollsters or wherever?” - by Peter from Putney October 6th, 2007 at 2:59 pm
• “Wow!!! Now out to 1.86-1, something must have been said or whispered!” - by Peter from Putney October 6th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
• “2007 is 8/5 now on Betfair. Something has spooked the market. Is it just us, nattering away? Surely not. Looks like a poll has been leaked, or someone has caught a rumour.” - by seanT October 6th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
• “1.86-1, i.e. approx 15/8 in old money were the then odds on Betfair of a 2007 GE. These odds have since narrowed a little, but it’s a very active market at present.” by Peter from Putney October 6th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
• “Somebody is laying 2007 pretty hard now” by Jon October 6th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
• “Conservative Home may be responsible for the change in Betfair odds. They don’t provide any evidence or source for the rumours of worse polls for Labour. What they do say is that GB is pre-recording an interview with Andrew Marr for tomorrow and speculating that he will rule out a GE.” by Blue Moon October 6th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
• “God this is all too much. Election at evens. England leading Australia by 2 points with fifteen to play. Might have to take some d1azepam.” by seanT October 6th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
• “There won’t be an election Sean. Watch the rugby.” by tim October 6th, 2007 at 3:30 pm
• “Certainly the odds on 2007 are STILL widening. But I don’t see why Brown calling an interview means they’ve cancelled the vote. He might be about to tell us he is going for it. How can they know?” by seanT October 6th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
• “I presume it’s because he needs to see the queen before announcing an election, so wouldn’t do an interview saying what and see.” by Woody662 October 6th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
• “Wow - England have beaten Australia. Election on lol!!!!!! “ by The Reverend Doctor October 6th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
• “Well done England. Excellent performance” by Jack W October 6th, 2007 at 3:40 pm
• “Gordon’s never been very big on traditions - maybe he’s already texted the Queen… “ by Edmund in Tokyo October 6th, 2007 at 3:42 pm
• “Jan-Jun 2009 coming in quite fast as well.” by alex October 6th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
• “Nick Robinson on News 24 - No early election” by Gary Barford October 6th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
• “BBC has the story, its off.” by James Burdett October 6th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
• “SKY BREAKING NEWS The Election is off “ by The Reverend Doctor October 6th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
• “Scots in the final then Jack? Incidentally if the rumour is true, it’s going to be a very interesting interview. Will Gordon prompt laughs and incredulity by claiming the election was never on in the first place?” by alex October 6th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
• “I’m very very relieved … why give the Tories a chance when there’s no need? It was pointless. “ by The Reverend Doctor October 6th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
• “I suspect that GB had a whiff of bad polls and wanted to get out the story before the polls are published this evening to try to delink the decision from the polls. I don’t think it will work somehow!” by Blue Moon October 6th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
• ” England beat the favourites and the election is off! I think this may be the best day of my entire life. I am off to get utterly pissed” by MBoy October 6th, 2007 at 3:49 pm• “Nick Robinson could have made a mistake (not totally impossible)… if Nick Robinson is correct then my prediction is March 2008.” by Matthew JCG Partridge October 6th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
One of the risks of political betting is that at times you can be gambling against those who are “in the know”. There’s nothing illegal about it but if price movements on the scale recorded on that afternoon had happened on the stock market ahead of a big announcement then an inquiry would have surely followed.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Peter from Putney, who suspiciously was contributing to the thread at the time, frequently regales us with his maxim, “someome always knows and some always tells!” It looks as if this was the case here.
Sorry to go off thread but there is ****STAND OUT**** value with William Hill. John McCain 20/1 for the Presidency. As short as 10/1 with Bet365, 9/1 with Intrade, 14/1 with Betfair and a 9/2 shot with both spread firms for the GOP nomination.
Interesting read Mike, I remember being on here as the news broke.
Tim published on ConservativeHome at 15:22pm, but political journalists have since claimed that some editors, and therefore journalists, were aware of the Marr interview on the Saturday morning. It is likely that “sources” were approached in late morning/early afternoon to find out more about the content. Tim’s source for the story must have approached him well before 15.22 so that indicates quite a few people aware of the possibility in early afternoon before PtP noted the market moving.
1. Just had £500 on McCain.
Though I had to ring to place that amount.
Almost definitely.
What most stuck me about this interview was how monumentally stupid it was. He could have got away with it had he just never made an announcement, and the papers would have slowly had to stop guessing about an election. Maybe the Mail would have accused him of bottling it, but without a single event to define the back down the other papers couldn’t have followed. It would have seemed like journalist’s titter tatter.
But as it was it showed Brown had clearly been behind the speculation the whole time, and defined the backdown into a single reportable event. It was this moment when I realised how much the Brown team could not even compare with the Blairites for media savvy.
One thread too late, but the Clinton and Obama camps trade blows over Bhutto’s assasination:
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2007/12/obama_controversy_over_aides_r.html
A query for all you polling buffs out there:
Last Friday the Guardian published this story:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/news/story/0,,2231294,00.html
Now, yesterday, upholding its obligations as a member of the British Polling Council, ICM Research published its datasheets from the headline December voting intention poll. However, the datasheets for the regional breakdown are absent.
ICM Research say on their website:
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/media-centre-polls.php
So, when are we going to see the workings out for this regional breakdown then?
The only solid information published thus far is a tiny footnote in the Guardian article:
I am particularly interested to know the levels of Tory and Lib Dem support in Scotland; and the level of Plaid Cymru support in Wales.
Re Brown’s media skills, why was he looking down throughout his comments on the Benazir Bhutto assassination?
From today’s Guardian:
Owen Bowcott
Friday December 28, 2007
The Guardian
Tony Benn, secretary of state for energy, encouraged Britain’s nuclear industry to export reactors to Middle Eastern countries.
In a letter to the prime minister in early 1977 he explained: “Both Kuwait and Iran have expressed definite interest in buying from the UK and [I] have encouraged NPC (the Nuclear Power Company) to compete.
“The industrial arguments in favour of trying to get the orders are strong. I think there is a strong case at the present time for encouraging the nuclear industry to secure business overseas.”
Discuss
3 It was, in this case PfP (Peter from Putney) not PtP (Peter the Punter). Having read several threads containing this confusion, I know how amused / irritated they get!!
Mike, in your article you say “There’s nothing illegal about it”. I’m not sure that you are right.
The point about a wager is that it is a speculation based on a future uncertain event. If someone has knowledge of the outcome of the event, then it is not uncertain. If someone seeks to enter into a “wager” when only they and not the counterparty know the facts, it is probably fraudulent. It is certainly a breach of fiduciary duty.
11 Oh no - sorry PfP & PtP - embarrassed by error but blame fact it was posted very late at night/early morning.
11 We don’t get ittitated, Tim! We think it’s funny. That’s why we don’t change names.
We also like to ‘fine’ people a notional £1 when they make the mistake.
On thread, it surprises me there aren’t more leaks on political betting. Perhaps there will be when turnover increases. I can think of two recent elections - Labour Deputy and LD Leaadership - when you might have expected some insider trading, but there was clearly none. Blair Switch was also remarkably straight.
The fact that the Marr interview was being planned would have been known by a lot of media people and Labour insiders that afternoon.
13. Yes Ted definitely PfP. His fingerprints are all over this one.
irritated even!
12 It can’t be illegal, Augustus. Not in betting.
Deliberately deceiving the other side could be - so extreme ‘ramping’, if proved, could be actionable, but not betting on inside information.
re 9 I wondered that as well. he looked shifty. I presume that he was looking at the interviewer who for some reason was sitting down.
An interesting article releaed under the 30 yr rule…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=504809&in_page_id=1770
Methinks, students will study the Brown years in 30yrs time. Brown borrowed to the hilt during times of plenty.
Now we enter a time of 7 skinny cows and 7 scrawny sheafs of corn, who will lend to Brown.
18 Peter
Interested to know - is there any good case law to quote in this area? Clearly it is something that in most cases would be pretty difficult to prove. Presumably cases are only brought in the most “black and white” instances?
11 Joking! I remember your “irritation”!
19 And if an interview was carried out in that way - one person sitting the other standing (unless it was a press conference with lots of journalists - and if so why the h… was it filmed like that?), there has to be something most peculiar about the social interaction involved. Whether this is merely Brown’s “media skills” which has been discussed before, or that he really does have an odd way of interacting with (some?) other people. Thinking about it - the interviewer could have been very short, or in a wheelchair. But editors normally compensate for those issues….
20 - “Now we enter a time of 7 skinny cows and 7 scrawny sheafs of corn, who will lend to Brown.”
Oh ye of little faith. That’s a hell of a lot more than 5 loaves and two fishes.
21 Not that I’m aware of Tim. It would be incredibly difficult to prove.
8 “I am particularly interested to know the levels of Tory and Lib Dem support in Scotland; and the level of Plaid Cymru support in Wales. ” Me as well
6 No he had to say something. The stupid thing was the exclusivity with Marr. Campbell would never have done that. He had have had 2 or 3 minimum together or in swift succession. As a result not only was the announcement hurting but he made Boulton, Robinson and all the rest of the pack absolutely livid. Stupidity compounded by monumental dumbness
25 Worse still Marr seems to have been set up to go out into Downing Street and make an announcement like an official spokesman.
One of the worst readings of the media circus in recent years.
Can I ask for some clarification?
My understanding of BetFair is that they have been hailed by certain governing bodies in sport becuase the quality of their data actually enhances the chances of un-straight betting (I’m thinkin the recent fixed tennis game). So, my questions are:
1) Do BetFair have rules (beyond the law) on insider information, or those precluded from certain markets, or other strictures?
2) In cases where ‘cheating’ (however defined) is suspected, do they lauch investigations or release the names of those who profitted to the police or civil parties - and are they allowed to do this within the law, if it is only a breach of BetFair rules, not a breach of the law?
27 Should have read ” *detecting* un-straight betting”. Sorry.
It may have been ‘insider trading’. But that’s risky. Everyone should be aware of the transparency of betfair, and also be alert to the fact that they are ‘very light on the trigger’. My friend has had his big account permanently suspended by betfair, because they weren’t happy with a betting pattern. They declined to discuss it with him, and there is no appeal.
Betfair are extremely keen to maintain the integrity of their site, and if they sometimes go OTT, they seem happy to accept that.
Morus tapping your brains on other seats. How do you read Newports
BTW Interested in your thinking on the Lib Dems and Cardiff South. How can they take it without cracking the Tory vote in the Vale.
Last what is going on with the Lib Dems in Swansea West. It all seemeed teed up for them and then they went asleep
I’m psychic! Or telepathic! Or something!
In all seriousness, if this wasn’t insider trading of some sort, what was it? A space shuttle of very confident punters just arrived from Planet Foresight?
Nah. I suspect this was journos at the Beeb, or maybe even underlings at Number 10. And to be fair, free money must be hard to resist.
Clearly too big BUT I would suggest that anyone who takes it to lay off quite quickly. I have closed my book on McCain (though this is tempting for a fast bet/lay). I get the feeling that McCain hasn’t quite got enough momentum behind him to go all the way to nomination
Having had increasing investment on him that isnt a great feeling to have.
As regards the lead article. I am sure I heard the first rumour shortly before 3 on the day.
By the way, ‘insider trading’? Nah. Some people simply had the information before most others and lucky them. Thats how it always works. What are they meant to do with it, wait uintil an official announcement?
27 Morus
Betfair certainly have a Memorandum of Understanding with the HRA by virtue of which thye share information on unisual trading patterns. This featured prominently in the recent Fallon case.
They may have understandings with other authorities too - tennis, for example.
Betting on Betfair leaves a very clear audit trail, and their willingness to reveal this does make large-scale cheating seriously risky.
32. Yokel. Someone’s got to win it.
34. You’re the expert PtP - when does a lucky whiff of rumour, as Yokel terms it, become proper insider trading - illegal use of priveliged information?
Presumably it depends who does it. If these movements were down to some hacks at the Beeb, hazarding a good guess at the subject of Brown’s interview, then that seems fine to me. But if it was someone at Number 10, privy to the decision before anyone else, than that would clearly be wrong.
But if it was someone in between… Tricky.
32 I’m sure McCain willdo better than expected in NH. Whether he can sustain it into the South is the big question
seanT, you’re confusing what is immoral and what is illegal. If I go to a little old lady’s house and recognise a Chippendale, and offer her £100 to take it off her hands, that might be immoral, but she was willing to sell for £100. If I know that something is going to happen and you think the opposite is going to happen, you may think that it is unsporting for me to place a bet with you, but you were willing to place the bet in the first place. In neither case has a crime been committed. So far as bets are concerned, bookies have two further options: not to take the bet in the first place or not to pay out if they suspect nefarious activities.
Insider dealing is a relatively recent criminal offence in financial markets, and had to be introduced by statute. It applies only to listed investments.
What is unlawful is ramping in order to make a profit out of misinformation. That is obtaining (or attempting to obtain) property by deception.
9. He looked tired and if he couldn’t really be @rsed. His suit also resembled those with a zip up the back issued to spontaneously undressing, confused elderly people.
O/T-Sorry if someone posted:
“Pakistan slip renews questions about Huckabee and foreign policy”
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/12/pakistan-slip-r.html
I have just looked at the Brown clip for the first time and it is odd. Is he reading off a card on a table? He never looks up once and the whole statement is in a monotone that does not convey concern or determination, only automation.
And the suit is ill fitting to be generous.
All a sign of extreme stress or a sign of a poor media team?
36 SeanT
Antifrank has answered well and I concur.
In the betting world, such trading would not be illegal. There are conventions and some sanctions can be imposed by the regulatory authorites. For example, I remember Richard Fahey was carpeted by the HRA for failing to announce publicy that Fonthill Rd had been successfully treated for a back problem just before winning the Ayr Gold Cup at 16/1. A number of us were aware of the treatment and profited accordingly, so strictly we were insider trading but it isn’t an indictable offence. Fahey was, I believe, fined and warned, but that was under the HRA rules, not the law of the land.
40. One thing strikes me from this side of the Atlantic and perhaps we are missing it over here but I’ve heard fairly little debate on economics, especially since the US is having a few issues at the moment.
The law and betting — some of the advice given above may be out of date. The 2005 Gambling Act (which came into force this year) includes the exciting new offence of Cheating.
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2005/ukpga_20050019_en_4#pt3-pb3-l1g42
Whether and to what extent this covers insider trading has yet to be established.
43-There was one debate that was dominated by the economy, I think it was the CNN/Youtube. But as you, I haven’t seen many discussions. And when there’s a question about it, the answers are so “vague” that I can’t even say that they are talking about the economy!But even so, according to the polls, it’s a big issue for most of the Americans…
WItan @ 41: yes, I asked about this @ 9.
Perhaps Brown was avoiding looking at a bright light held near the camera (the piece was badly lit iirc) or, as you say, he might have been reading. Where is Roger when we need his expert opinion?
46. No reporter was asking Brown the questions. Quite why he was looking down is bizarre, unless he was reading his script
47. In hiding until June 2010 when he’ll be in opposition.
36. That sounds the likely scenario. As I said earluier, many people would have known the interview was happening and the likely reason.
43,45 re lack of economic debate in US. Indeed. I might have upset Obama fans recently when I complained it can at times be hard to say quite what he stands for, and often disappointing when you can work it out. A bit like early Cameron and Clegg (both of whom were elected!).
There is a piece on the Rasmussen site saying Romney and Huckabee have been attacked from the right for prioritising balanced budgets over tax cuts for billionaires.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_froma_harrop/only_suckers_pay_bills
Yes indeed, I remember that afternoon well and I have no doubt that someone acted on leaked information. In theory, the only parties potentially privy to the election being called off were those very close to No.10 and also at the BBC, although one or more of the polling firms would have been aware of the shift in opinion which gave rise to Brown’s totally unexpected decision to call off any election. The profit opportunity was restricted to “laying”, i.e. betting against a 2007 General Election, and therefore only available on the betting exchanges, where Betfair dominates the market.
Betfair have always shown themselves anxious to assist in any suspected foul play by identifying “unusual betting patterns” and they should certainly be asked to assist in this particular case, where the “action”, and there was plenty of it, took place over a 75 minute period btween 2.30pm - 3.45pm on 6 October, when the decision was was formally announced. Wasn’t it, in fact, left to Marr, incredibly, to inform other excluded journalists outside the doors of No 10, for which they have never forgiven Brown?
That particular afternoon was memorable from another aspect in that approximately one hour prior to the exchanges to which Mike refers, there appeared probably the finest joke ever to feature on this site, posted by, ahem, yours truly. For those of you who missed it first time around, here it is again:
A Brummie goes for a job interview wearing a polyester shirt, bright flares and big boots.The interviewer says “All you need now is a kipper tie.” The Brummie replies, “That would be love-lay, two sugars, ploise.”
A belated Happy Christmas to the PB.com community.
8.”I am particularly interested to know the levels of Tory and Lib Dem support in Scotland; and the level of Plaid Cymru support in Wales.”
Good question, my gut instinct is that the Libdems are performing more poorly in their heartlands, while the Tories are improving in the area’s where they have performed well in the past. But elsewhere in Scotland where neither are particularly strong, there is no change.
50-Thanks for the link. I agree with everything, specially this:
“You’d think a record of balancing budgets under very difficult circumstances would be a point of pride for a candidate. But that assumes you care about balanced budgets, a value not deeply shared by most Bush Republicans.”
52 Well I don’t think anyone was reckoning a Tory surge in Glasgow…
Thanks for all responses - it would be very interesting to know who/how many people bet/laid on this market on the afternoon in question, and how much they staked to have such an impact on the prices. It may not be illegal, but it would be politically interesting, and any revelation would perhaps deter simialr bahaviour in the political markets for fear of embarassment.
33 - I think the ethical thing to do is, if you hear information that is not public, and you are under no obigation to keep it secret, is to publish that information, as Mike did with the Clegg-Huhne poll that Sky embargoed. If, like Iain Dale, you are obliged (contractually or ethically) to keep it secret, I think that ethically prohibits you from also profitting through betting on it.
30 - I’ve always thought that the Lib Dems did best when they stopped trying to be consistent. Play Clegg as ‘very similar to Cameron’ in the Vale (to muddy the waters and pull closer), and rely on the Labour to LD swing in Llanrumney, Splott, Grangetown by being the left-leaning ‘local issues ‘ (esp schools) party, as Jenny Randerson and Jenny Willets have done in Cardiff Central, to propel to victory once Alun Michael retires. The Lib Dems are able to play different messages to different electorates in a way the other parties are too well-known to manage - Liberal free-market to the posh Vale, and local Lefties to the economically deprived. This is a strength, they should use it.
I know very little about either Newport or Swansea (a Kaerdiff lad doesn’t visit such places if he can help it), but I am not convinced that house prices pushing young professionals into Newport East from Cardiff Central will help the Tories that much. Many are being pushed into North Cardiff (Rhiwbina, Llanishen) where the tories are already strong, or up into the lower valleys (Pontypridd, Pontypool) where Labour will never lose (except to Independent Labour). Might see a swing, but not a major swing. As someone who tried to find work in Cardiff before I chose London, I can promise there simply aren’t that many decent-paying jobs for young professionals in Cardiff, and the salaries vs house price ratio is so horrible, that such a demographic (yps not living with parents) is smaller than anywhere else I’ve lived in the country.
Swansea - no idea, but it seems they vote for members, not for parties. The retiring MP is popular, I know, and the AM is high-profile, so may have won on that basis. Labour support is soft - this seat might still fall. It is wealthy (in Swansea terms), so a Tory revival is not impossible - if they get 2nd place, that would be a good bit of news for Cameron.
54.Well you are more likely to find a dodo than a Tory Association office in some area’s…..
I still wouldn’t put a Tory sticker in a window or on a car in some area’s around there either!
38 and 42. Thanks, and I bow to your superior knowledge.
The interesting thing here is that, by your definition, anyone in Number 10 could have bet on the non-election and still been acting within the law. Maybe even GB himself.
Of course if they got caught they would have to resign at once. But they couldn’t be prosecuted.
Doesn’t this rather detract from the validity of political betting markets? The average punter will always be betting against people, inside the loop, who have vastly superior knowledge.
Sorry if this seems dim. This aspect of it has only occurred to me now! It’s probably a good thing I don’t bet. Ahem.
I have no problem with people who know cashing in - I frequently bet unwise sums of money on football manager’s markets and part of doing so is accepting that someone somewhere knows more than I do. All part of the fun.
seanT @ 57 — and there is the plot of your next novel.
SeanT the only insurance is to bet on the markets where politicos know no more than we do (postal vote rigging excepted) such as seat or vote numbers, other elections outside political control and long term post holders (Chancellor, PM etc) but never short term changes of incumbent or where the decision is entirely in one person’s hands (GEs).
51 “The profit opportunity was restricted to “laying”, i.e. betting against a 2007 General Election, and therefore only available on the betting exchanges, where Betfair dominates the market.”
William Hill also had a “2007 general election - yes or no” market. I know because I managed to get £40 on “no” at 4/6 after the Beeb had announced Brown’s decision on their website. Not sure whether that was insider trading, but I didn’t feel especially guilty about it. Excellent joke, btw!
55 Thanks. What I thought. But as yet they’ve still not broken the Tory vote and have I think a miniscule Vale Council presence. It shall be interesting how they attack it. Although you seem confident they can build a coalition. If Labour are really on the rack at the next election though is anything possible in your view or does incumbency trump everything
Swansea Ok. But watch the Gower I hear
60 If an Agent at a count places a bet before the announcment is this illegal
re 57. I’ve another story today about the dangers of betting. Just over an hour ago I was rearranging my spread position on the Spreadfair general election commons seats market and accidentally clicked the wrong button resulting in a loss of more than £1000. I’m still several thousand pounds up since October but this was so infuriating.
The result of my mistake is that the sell level Tory seats dropped from 298 to 237 in just a few seconds.
55 Morus - did you in fact write this thread? I has Mike’s name at it’s foot.
Looking back at the full archived records that afternoon, I discover that I had the sagacity to bet on a 2007 GE!
However, perhaps the most interesting post (apart fr0om my Brummie joke, of course came from Ted B at 2.24pm as follows:
Danny Finkelstein says that the early election is off:
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2007/10/election-news-u.html
I guess a soft-interview from Marr would be the logical place to start the backtrack but I can’t quite believe he is backing out before the meeting he is meant to be having tomorrow.
Perhaps someone should start off by asking Mr Finkelstein from whom he heard this news - whoever it was extraordinarily well informed, to say the least!
Tom A @61 - You are absolutely correct and, no, I don’t think anyone could accuse you of insider dealing by acting on a BBC news report!
57: seanT said:
“The average punter will always be betting against people, inside the loop, who have vastly superior knowledge.”
Indeed. One of the merits of this site is, seeing the amounts of knowledge displayed, and profit claimed, by the experts here, that the ordinary punter should, knowing that someone has to lose to provide these profits, wisely refrain from gambling in these markets.
63 That means you got the market to think that the baseline for the Tories was 237 seats as opposed to 298? That’s a big leap
63. Er, yes, that’s quite infuriating!! Crikey. Sympathies.
There should be a “confirm amount” button maybe..?!
58 I think that’s a sensible attitude, Andy.
In racing, punters get to know which trainers and connections are open and free with information, and which are a bit of a closed shop. Paul Nicholls sets a high standard amongst the former, whilst Gary Moore and Jonjo O’Neill would fall in the latter category, although that’s not a criticism of them. They just have a different way of operating and you have to factor that in when making your assessments.
63 Mike - I once had the misfortune to offer patently stupid odds against myself on Spreadfair which were immediately and unsurprisingly taken up. More in hope than expectation, I telephoned Spreadfair who to my great surprise and relief agree to cancel the related transactions. It’s got to be worth a try in your case.
63 Ouch! Commisserations Mike. I have done it myself occasionally, but not for that kind of sum.
57 It’s just part of the challenge, SeanT.
It surprises me there isn’t more inside action than there is. Note though, that pulling insider deals is not always as easy as people think. The recent Fallon case was full of amusing and intriguing examples of how the insiders managed to get it wrong!
You know I really think this has the makings of an entertaining novel.
Two years ago, I spotted on the wires that Kicking King was out of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. This info was available to the media and to bookies.
I promptly backed war of attrition at very attractive odds with one bookmaker who wasn’t on the ball to suspend the market.
I don’t see that as insider trading cos the information was out in the public domain.
72 Absolutely right.
PtP, do you remember the “Gay Future” affair? Do you think that was illlegal?
PtP - Alternate posts from you and me - there should be a steady flow of £1 fines any time soon.
72. cheltboy. And 3 years ago Kicking King was declared unfit and out of the 2005 Cheltenahm Gold Cup, drifted to very big odds on Betfair, then famously got better and won the race.
8/25. Punter/ Stuart Dickson.
Re Scottish & Welsh regional figures. You may already know this but UK Polling Report has its own Scottish Section which provides details of the latest Holyrood/Westminster polls.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/scottish-voting-intention/
Unfortunately, there do not seem to be any polls for Wales since the May elections (if anyone has any I’d be interested to know what the headline results are).
Re the ICM aggregate ‘poll’ I don’t think it provides a great deal of definitive information because:
1) Its an aggregate so it does not provide a snapshot comparison (i.e. its not showing the current situation against a specific previous point) and any trends are actually diluted by averaging out the figures and the period used is several months at least (when there was a step change in voting intentions potentially cancelling out much of the current situation).
2) The periods used are not like for like as the previous aggregate used as comparison covered the period from May 2005 to August 2007, I believe, whereas this latest one covers the period September - October 2007.
3) The calculations have not been published (although presumably can be derived from individual polls).
4) ICM only normally report North (presumably including Scotland), Midlands (presumably including Wales) and South in their polls. Consequently it is impossible to know what the Welsh and Scottish sample sizes were without the publication of the aggregate polls.
In the most recent poll the weighted sample for the North was approximately 170 people and therefore the likely Scottish sample would likely have been far less than 100.
At best its conclusions do signify changes but I believe possibly significantly underestimate the potential change between the start point and the end point in voting in the regions. Consequently, at best its conclusions can be used to support conclusions identified elsewhere.
Of course you can do snapshot comparisons of the regional picture using some of the national polls that do provide regional data but this has its disadvantages as well.
1) The samples are usually far too small to provide a realistic picture.
2) The samples are not weighted regionally and therefore the picture can easily be distorted by demographically unrepresentative samples.
However, if you are still interested Yougov does provide seperate Scottish figures out as part of its detailed national poll data so used in comparison with the specific polls for Scotland it is feasible to get some idea of what is going on.
Additionally, whilst still normally falling well below the accepted threshold for the size of sample (30th November Poll comes much closer with an overall sample size exceeding 4000), Yougov does generally use larger national samples and consequently the regional figures might give a slightly better result but the significant disadvantages above still certainly apply.
Once again unfortunately I am not aware that any pollsters bother to separate the Welsh figures out in their national voting intention polls presumably because the samples are miniscule.
63. That’s a body blow Mike. Might be worth doing as PfP suggests at 69? Personally I wasn’t sitting on any umatched positions so I’m innocent of benefitting from your misfortune.
74 Yes, Augustus, I remember it well.
No, I think it wasn’t illegal and the judge, who knew a thing or two about racing, seemed to think likelwise, but the jury nevertheless returned a guilty verdict. (The judge imposed a derisory fine.)
The scandal was that the English bookies refused to pay out. The Irish bookies paid. Says it all.
63. Mike. If you can bear it, can you clarify what you did, as a cautionary tale to the rest of us? I am assuming you put in a bid to sell Tory seats at a level much lower than you intended? Which was instantly matched by someone buying Tory seats off you very cheaply? Have I got it right?
I try to always chant to myself “BUY LOW, SELL HIGH” before I confirm a bet and if the bet doesn’t fit this mantra then I think again.
Sorry to go on about it but we should always try to learn from each others mistakes.
76. I remember reading that some people who laid 1000 took a caning.
77. jsfl
Thanks, but I am afraid that this still does not answer my question: as a member of the British Polling Council are ICM Research not obliged to publish the detailed datasheets from the regional analysis used by the Guardian in its article?
There is an internal contradiction in what you say: you say “ICM only normally report North (presumably including Scotland), Midlands (presumably including Wales) and South in their polls”, however also “presumably can be derived from individual polls”. Well, errr, no, we cannot work it out for ourselves. ICM normally only use 3 “regions”:
North
Midlands
South
… but their “regional analysis (”sample of 6,042″) uses 5 “regions”:
North
Midlands and eastern England
South
Scotland
Wales
52. Chris D “my gut instinct is that the Libdems are performing more poorly in their heartlands, while the Tories are improving in the area’s where they have performed well in the past. But elsewhere in Scotland where neither are particularly strong, there is no change”
Thanks. Sounds reasonable.
77 The Ipsos Mori monthly monitors do split out the admittedly small Welsh subsamples . With all the usual caveats for the very small sizes EVERY poll since June has shown a big fall in Plaid support presumably in reaction to their support for Labour in the WA . Cue for the various Plaid posters to ridicule this evidence .
re 78 and others. I was trying to offer to sell @ 303 Tory seats at £65. Alas I got the numbers the wrong way round and the contract I placed was to sell at the 63 seat level at £303 per seat.
Even PBC’s most rabid anti-Tories think the party is going to get more than 63 seats at the general election!!
64 - No, PfP, post 55 was me.
Thanks for the Finkelstein post - Ted B has posted on TimesOnline thread at 14:20 to say that he’s laid heavy on Betfair, and that is a full half hour after ‘the Finkster’ apparently posted his scoop.
I’d consider a blog on the Times website to be public information - if we (some of the most avid followers of politics on Betfair) only noticed the markets moving an hour after Finkelstein announced the news, it seems that the profits weren’t made by insiders as much as by quick movers like Ted B, in which case, credit to him.
This is still a really important issue, and I wonder if BetFair would do well to impose an ethical code for political betting (privy information to be made public before you bet, or keep it secret and refrain from betting) to keep the appearance of a fair market - although I appreciate Andy D’s point about keeping it fun through knowledge of enhanced risk.
62 - Incumbant candidates will profit from their status, but not incumbant parties. That is my view of the seats we’ve discussed.
84. Blo*dy Hell!
Stuart:
I fully agree about the contradictions you raise and mentioned that above. As you point out ICM haven’t published the figures or stated what the samples are or what methodology they used. So we do not have any explanation. To me this aggregate ‘poll’ is highly dubious.
However,I’m not sure that this poll was specifically prepared by ICM. Instead, was it actually derived by the Guardian using data gathered by ICM for them? That might explain why the study has not been published, in itself.
Certainly, given the questions surrounding this aggregate aproach I would not be surprised if ICM had little to do with the specific preparation of the aggregate poll.
I don’t believe there is very much value in the article or the aggregate ‘poll’ at all in isolation. I don’t think using aggregates in this way provides an accurate current picture, full stop.
For example, I’ve just aggregated the headline figures for all the national polls published from August to the last ICM poll in December it gives figures of:
Con 37 Lab 37 Libdem 15.
If you aggregate the figures for December only it gives figures of:
Con 42 Lab 33 Libdem 16.
This gives a 9 point variance between the recent aggregate and the longer term one. Its hard to believe there would not be a similar potential variance in comparing regional figures?
Now if there was a GE tomorrow I know which set of figures I would choose as representing more closely the outcome of that election.
Despite all it’s disadvantages, I prefer comparing regional figures in individual polls to get a sense of whats happening. Looking at these my instinct (and only an instinct) is that Labour’s position in some of the regions (particularly the North) could be significantly worse than the Guardian suggests.
As for Scotland, I would use the actual polls available and then using the very limited regional information extrapolate a best guess current situation. Wales - who knows?
Hi Mr Smithson,
As one of the people you did match I don’t mind you making an appeal but could you post here the results of the appeal, or email me, if you do get the bets cancelled. Because of my current betting strategy I need to know asap.
Thanks
re 84 & 88 You live and learn every day. Spreadfair have what is known as a “manifest error rule” and have decided that that is what has taken place here. All transactions below 290 Tory seats have been voided. This still leaves me more than £600 down but that’s better than a grand.
Good to know for the future.
83 Taking my pinch of salt. How was everyone else incl yourselves doing. Morus has interesting campaign advice at 55 that you may rant about
89. Mike. I am pleased! Hat tip to PfP for suggesting the phone call to Spreadfair. And also to Spreadfair.
If you had had the whole £303 stake matched at 65 seats and you had then closed the bet down at say 285 seats, I think this would have cost you £66,660 !!!
89.
Thanks for the info.
83 - You’re right about the fall in support for Plaid Cymru, but I think it’s more than just coalition with Labour.
The centrepiece of Plaid’s manifesto when in opposition was a new Welsh Language Act, which would compel the private sector in Wales to do everything bilingually (as the public sector already has to by virtue of the WLA 1993). The Tories and LDs were not vocal in their opposition to this, only Labour actively opposed it, although may now concede for the sake of coalition. Personally I feel it would be a disaster by acting as a major disincentive for business to operate out of Cardiff, whereas they could sell the same work out of a Bristol office, and avoid the burden.
I think that being in government has meant that people now have to actually take Plaid Cymru’s agenda seriously, and there’s not much to recommend it. There is a new generation of actually very bright, very talented PC activists and junior members, but I always get the feeling that there is amongst them a clandestine desire for independence (clandestine because Wales generally is against splitting from England) and a private disparagement of those who either do not speak Welsh, or who live in Anglicised parts of the country (ie Cardiff). This makes the party quite unnatractive outsde of the North and West of Wales.
I think the Plaid Cymru peak was because they were the closest thing (left-wing) to Labour at a time when people did not want to vote with the Labour government because of PFI and the Iraq War. Now they (PC) have joined the Labour PArty in the Welsh Assembly Government, and now Blair is gone from Westminster, I think that support will begin to recede.
Mark Senior, please do feel free to rant about my advice, but know it was genuinely meant, and was not a sideswipe! Third parties have the right to be inconsistent to stay in the electoral game - it the compensatory luxury of semi-permanent opposition.
93 I am in a non ranting mood at the moment mellowed by a substantial intake of Baccardi and Coke .
93 Sorry was a bit of mischief making. On your other point I think you maybe right. It takes 5 seconds before a yet another why Cardiff/Swansea/Newport rant marches out of HMJ or another PC hacks mouth. So effectively they shut themselves of from half the population straight away. That’s why I think Mr Senior has more confidence to crow than Cymru Mark. As should Labour be on the backfoot in those cities apart from the professional bits that the Tories could conceivably grab eg Cardiff North & Newport West the only alternative to Labour and they are positioning themselves as such is the Lib Dems in Newport East and Swansea West. I think the yellowq hordes may well take outright control of Cardiff in May. At a mionimum Mark Williams looks a good bet in Ceredigion
94 It’s Dark Rum and Coke here - the real thing not that tasteless Cuba Libre mix
94/95 Nowt wrong with a little mischief-making!
My general feelings for the South of Wales (Swansea, Valleys, Cardiff, Newport and Monmouthshire) are that Labour will actually retain what they have - they have come through the worst of it - the Tories will pick up a seat or two, but no strong headway in national (Welsh) % of vote, and that the Lib Dems will pick up a handful of seats off targeted campaigning. Locals in May will be very good to the LDs, I agree.
I reckon PC will see their % of vote diminish, but stick at about 3/4 seats at Westminster, and that this will actually be ok for them in the long term. They are not suited to the constraints of government, even WA Gvt, and are a natural party of opposition - they get a lot more done by uninhibited campaigning, enacted by proxy through the left of the Labour Party when its Westminster equivalent is judged to be drifting to the centre-right. They could never aim for this, or admit it, but I think it’s true.
90 FWIW the average shares for all the Ipsos Monitors since June for the Wales subsample ( a total sample of only around 600 ) was Con 15% Lab 51% LD 17% Plaid 12% Others 5%
re 91. I think that if the whole amount had been matched at £303 at the 65 seat level my sole objective between now and the general election would have been to do everything to ensure a Tory meltdown.
91 stjohn - Well it was good you to give me a hat tip any way. A little thank you is always appreciated!
Not entirely O/T
Might I suggest the following win double.
Go short on Northern Rock
1/4% interest rate cut next month
Be lucky one and all
97 I agree but nationwide I wouldsay the Tories are a certainty for 6 seats. A strong possibility seventh in VoG and a less possible eighth (doing very well)in Newport West After that you start straying into some far fetched scenarios but FWIW Vale of Clwyd (plausible) Clwyd South(Tory dreamland country) and Gower (impossible in one go but may become marginal). Where do you get the Lib Dems a handful from though. I can only identify Newport East (plausible) and Swansea West (possible)as ‘live’ targets
PC I agree. Theoretically Arfon is Labour but I think they will take and consolidate that. I agree and think as well while nationwide they will fall back. Still worth keeping an eye on Llanelli if and only if Labour are being really knocked about by General Election
98 Really? Possibly but I think Morus and I would be highly surprised if you outpolled the Tories in votes in Wales
re 93 Morus is there such a thing as a non-Welsh-speaking PC activist? I know many relatives in Conwy and Merionydd Nant Conwy costituencies who are strong Plaid supporters despite speaking hardly a word of Welsh.
Does any of our Cambrian experts have a view on Wrexham?
(By the way, is there going to be a Sean Fear Friday Slot, or can I go home now?)
104 Safeish Labour short-medium term (unless something spectacular occurs). Medium-Long term Lib Dem prospect once they have finally squeezed the others vote right down
Hills have opened a Pakistan market:
What will happen first?
1/2:- General Election
7/4:- Musharraf to resign
3/1:- Musharraf to be assassinated
5/1:- Nuclear Device to be detonated on Pakistani soil
10/1:- Bush announces invasion of Pakistan
25/1:- Nuclear device detonated in America/Britain
Bad taste, I lumped on the 25/1 though, bit of insurance if everything goes tits up.
I suppose that this was to be expected..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7163327.stm
“Brown to “step up” terror fight”.
I must say that I am concerned by the last line in the article though. It says, “He (Brown) promised they would defeat those who would thwart democracy by “bombing”. What exactly does that mean?
102 - a metaphorical handful!! - in the same bracket as Cardiff South & Penarth I’d put maybe Wrexham, if I had to commit LD campaign funds to Wales, or even Conwy (party-bulding), but the two you mention are the only ones likely to fall. It’s amazing, when you look at it, how few of the Welsh seats are even contestable.
98/102 I *would* be suprised if LD share exceeded Tory share in Wales, but it might be closer than we imagine, Punter. A lot of Labour voters will come home now there’s a chance of a Tory gvt, but the anti-Tories who don’t want to go back, and can’t stand Plaid Cymru, might go LD this time around. If I was laying, I’d say about 7/2 on LD share exceeding Tory in Wales.
108. Presumably he’s referring to militants detonating bombs such as the one yesterday. I don’t think it’s a threat of the use of force by Brown.
Or perhaps he’s just referring to his poll rating?
107. Is that serious? The market’s 57% overround, for a start.
108 - those who thwart by bombing…
or
would defeat… by bombing (them)
I think we should be told.
99 - would have been fun to see all the pb.com articles praising Gordon! But I’m glad you escaped little-scathed, Mike.
Inrteresting to read about the Welsh position. When I went to a conference in Cardiff I was struck by how bilingual it already is, with street signs IIRC first in Welsh and only secondarily in English. Nationalist movements often end up fighting primarily on the language issue - it’s been the big focal point in Quebec for years, and one of the more comtroversial tactics used by natuionalist governments in the Baltic States is to disenfranchise ethnic Russians with local passports if they can’t pass an exam in the local language - there is a mass of history behind that, of course. But the SNP have steered clear, presumably because not even most SNP supporters speak Gaelic.
104/106 - great minds don’t think alike, but clearly we all do!
103 - non-Welsh-speaking activists for PC: I’ve only ever met a couple. When you’re a small party, you don’t turn away activists, but I think any who stay with the party end up learning. It can be quite dificult for non-Welsh speakers to spend a great deal of time with a group who are almost all first-language Welsh, because that is justifiably what they want to speak, and it is rude to expect them to speak English just for you, so you pick it up.
The head of Cymdiethas yr Iaith Cymraeg (Welsh Language Society - pressure group) is not a native speaker - he learnt as a second language. Interestingly, PC was the party that got the first ethnic minority member of the Senedd elected, Mohammed Asghar AM, which implies they are better at diversity than some other parties in the WA. I do not believe he speaks Welsh, but am happy to be corrected. He was actually with Benazir Bhutto when her motorcade was attacked in October.
111 I’m confused too - what exactly are Bush, Brown and Rudd doing to “thwart” terrorism in Pakistan? Are there special forces operating we know not of? or are they intending to drive out AlQaeda/Salafists etc through speechifying?
109 Ah. As for Wrexham possibly although they’re already 2nd in Wrexham aren’t they not. Plus they have a large independent vote up for grabs making a better prospect I think. Conwy hmm I think that the Rev Roberts factor was a special one. Even for Party buidling it would not be fruitful unless you mean party building for the next Century. If they need a focus on North Wales they would have it I say ion Wrexham
As for the vote I think it would take big confluence of events. The Tories would have to not increase by any great degree. No big adavance as you say but a net advance of up to 3% is conceivable. Given the existing gap not only would Labour have to be unpopular as you say to stop the bulk going back but PC would have to offer little as well. I’d say 7/2 is a bit mean in odds, but I see your logic
112 - Nick, I am interested that you mention the position of Russians in the Baltics. I find it odd that Welsh and other languages have some status in the EU, whereas I understand Russian does not. There are hundreds of thousands of native Russian speakers in Estonia and over a million in Latvia… not to mention London! Shouldn’t the EU afford Russian some status?
116 Welsh does *not* have official status as an EU language, meaning it loses out in terms of EU grants (made up for by the obscene amount of Objective 1 and Objective 3 grants made to Wales, that will soon go to Romania and Bulgaria instead!). Cymdeithas yr Iaith Cymraeg have this recognitionas a cornerstone campaign.
There are 23 official languages in the EU: Bulgarian Czech Danish Dutch English Estonian Finnish French German Greek Hungarian Irish Italian Latvian Lithuanian Maltese Polish Portuguese Romanian Slovak Slovenia Spanish Swedish
All have equal status, so there can be no appeal to an Ur-Text that takes precedence over all translations. This, IMHO, is a massive legal problem, which I would solve (and save millions of euros in the process) is to have all Europen Law in Latin, and outsource all legal work to the Vatican.
112 Gaelic is surely only the Highlands tongue? Scots/Doric/Lallans is the Lowlands one.
118 - I would not be surprised if there were more Polish speakers than Gaelic speakers in Scotland.
107
i doubt you would be able to collect on ur 25/1 shot, and even if you did, money would soon have no value.
For those who missed it a couple of threads back:- try the election simulator… Based on reasonable statistical assumptions.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/electsim.rar
needs WinRAR to unpack it… (first link at top of page)
http://www.rarlab.com/download.htm
118. Indeed. Ironically making Scottish Lowlanders, linguistically speaking, closer to the English than to Scottish Highlanders.
100. PfP. You are very welcome. I am glad you appreciate that these honours are not bestowed lightly.
As a journalist I thought I would make some points about the election. On the day itself, I knew for certain by midday that the election was off. This means that other journalists will have known even before that.
There is something in the PCC code of conduct that prevents journalists from making money from information they acquire in the course of their work. Obviously this is aimed at the stockmarket but any journalist who got the whiff of a story and then made thousands by piling into betfair before it was printed would be in serious ethical breach of the code and would almost certainly lose their job if they were found out.
Rod at 121: I’ve tried to use the election simulator but I just get a StarOffice error message when I click on “Run”.
I typed a post here saying what the message says but, and I should’ve thought of this, it’s been caught in the spam filter.
Anyway, I’m not computer literate enough to have a clue what it means. Pity, as the simulator looks good fun.
re 107 the 25/1 shot seems exceptionally poor value indeed
re 121 Rod I did try it and was fun. Had to get the hankie out when “Con gain Broxtowe” flashed up!
125 Seems like an invitation to download viruses
113 Morus
Helen Mary Jones, AM for Llanelli, and one-time Deputy Leader of Plaid (although I have been unable to confirm that latter), grew up in her early years in England, and only learnt Welsh as a second language. Some achievement, I think, but her Welsh, to my untutored and poor quality ear for the language, is very good! Perhaps a native speaker would like to disillusion me on that point.
There was nothing illegal in the ‘pre election’ betting. Get on with it.
125. I’m guessing Star Office can’t interpret Microsoft’s Visual Basic, which is the programming language behind the spreadsheet. Shame. you’ll have to get Excel…
130. Or try the Macro Migration Wizard available with the Enterprise edition..
http://www.sun.com/software/star/staroffice/enterprise_tools.jsp
63 & etc.
VERY sorry to hear about what happened to you, Mike.
Personally think that on-line betting houses have some responsiblity for designing their sites to detter such errors, as has already been suggested. Because as well all know, is exceeding easy to hit the wrong buttom at the wrong time and do exactly the opposite (or worse!) of what you wanted. That’s the nature of the machine; house has enough advantages, which should they get the benefit of keyboard error as well???
PERHAPS you should think of switching from on-line to in-Vegas? THEN if you made such a mistake, you might not get your money back . . . but at least if you were a regular there’s a good chance they’d give you a complimentary coupon for the Charlie Wilson Memorial Hot Tub . . .
107 - LOL - Can someone ban him from this site now!
63 - a somewhat volatile market if a £1000 bet moves the market by 60…..
133 The Clintons really seem to be taking the gloves off against Obama. Is that a sign of how rattled they are or not
117 You list in the 23 offical EU languages “Irish” - the number who are fluent in Irish Gaelic seems to be very small because the numbers became so limited in a few western enclaves before independence and all efforts to resurrect the langauge seem to have failed. Welsh remained and remains the first language over much of the North and West of Wales and this is helping the now undoubted resurgence of numbers who are speakers even in the formerly almost 100% english speaking only areas
133. LOL!!!
Ave it will you be changing your name?
Jan 1 GAINS new username!!!!!
also LOL anyone who actually believed about the Pakistan market!!!!!
134. I’m not sure. Obama is currently marginally ahead in New Hampshire, but its so close everything depends on Iowa. In Iowa they are both level (along with Edwards), but Clinton leads among likely caucus goers. To my mind it seems silly to start attacks, as that will just encourage higher turnout on all sides, which isn’t in Clinton’s favour. Still, I wouldn’t like to call Iowa. Everything will depend on how many minds will be changed on the night.
135 - The UK government has ratified the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages in respect of Welsh.
Almost all Welsh speakers speak English well. However, Latvia and Estonia have not as far as I am aware ratified the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages in respect of Russian. Many Russians in these countries - and there are very many - do not speak the official languages of these countries at all.
136/137 - shocking.
Has to be a life ban MINIMUM for this distasteful poster! I am shocked
(LOL)
123 stjohn - you can certainly say that again!
139. Has France ratified it? They seem to have been the most opposed to the idea of non-national languages. Occitan has almost entirely died out now.
Big story on Obama today is HIS attack on Hilary, linking her vote for Iraq War and resulting diversion, destablisization in Afghanistan, Pakistan. Dovetailing with his previous comments on Pak situation and thus positioning him better than you’d expect given his low foreign policy exposure.
This as Hilary herself stresses her 14-year personal relationship with Benazir Bhutto, even mentioning Chelea meeting BB. Which gives you world leader/caring mother in one package! BUT Clinton is STILL focusing on the PAST instead of the FUTURE in rather stark contrast to Obama. ON THE OTHER HAND image of strong, brave woman leader standing tough for her ideals and her country is truly inspirational.
EDWARDS demonstrated that he is capable of connecting with world leaders & in more ways than one, by actually managing to reach Musharaff over the phone. The candidate said he advised general/president to deal with the terrorists and move forward toward democracy. Hardly earthshattering, but REAL story was that Edwards got through at all.
BTW just saw weather forecast of “sunny” for Iowa on Jan 3. Good weather should help turnout. BUT keep in mind that in winter (esp. with snow cover) sunny days mean cold nights. OF COURSE residents of the Upper Midwest are more likely than most folks to be brave any amount of cold OR snow IF they truly want to get out of the house: just ask the Indian casinos!
140. LOLOLOL!!!!!
135 - ApRhys, please be aware that I am in no need of convincing as to the merits of making Welsh an official language of the UK and the EU - I was only reporting that it is not (suprisingly) an official language at present.
I suspect Irish is there because it is their official national language, even though very few people speak it, whereas Welsh is not an official language of the UK, but is now more widely-spoken than Breton, with almost two-thirds of a million regular speakers.
Nobody challenged conducting all EU official business and law in Latin (and restricting official business and law by virtue of the lack of Latin scholars), and outsourcing the whole thing to the Vatican. I actually quite like the idea, as it would save a huge amount of money, and would inspire a renewed interest in classics.
142
Languages French most concerned about are:
Basque
Breton
Corsician
with less concern for:
Alsatian German
Flemish (near Belgian border)
but let’s not forget:
Arabic
Romany
As for UK, Mebyon Kernow are pushing for:
Cornish
146. What about Occitan and Gascon?
UK has European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages for:-
Cornish
Irish
Manx (ratified on behalf of Government of the Isle of Man)
Scots in Scotland and Northern Ireland (Ulster Scots)
Scottish Gaelic
Welsh
France has ratified nothing. Not sure what this charter actually means; perhaps it is just tokenism.
But my point, raised by Nick P, with respect to the Baltics, is that Russian is a major language in two EU countries, but seems to have no status at all. It would be a bit like Belgium failing to recognise French.
56 “I still wouldn’t put a Tory sticker in a window or on a car in some area’s”
A Labour type would put a brick through your window. The undemocratic hatred explains the ’shy Tory’ syndrome.
Conservatives are not driven by hate so there is no such thing as ’shy-Leftie’ (although there is ‘workshy-Leftie’).
Similar tactics were used by Labour’s Unions and by IRA/Sinn Fein.
Similar hate/violence tactics are used in Pakistan - although the violence is on a larger scale.
It is a bit late but for the sake of consistency I ought to mention I do not believe Brown did make a U-turn on an autumn election. Rather (and this is the way I bet) I doubt he ever intended a snap poll which would gain him nothing but the election talk was initially designed to destabilise the Tories (so that clearly backfired) and got out of hand thanks to his talentless young turks.
We should also remember the Conservatives were terrified of a snap election because they could read the polls too.
So Number Ten’s mishandling of events is even more spectacular.
Are there any odds available on Belgium splitting during 2008?
150 “We should also remember the Conservatives were terrified of a snap election because they could read the polls too.”
Terrified? No.
148. The minority Languages, particularly those designed for Nationalism rather than everyday life, are used to great effect by arrested criminals demanding translators. Imagine the fun of finding a Gaelic translator at 3am in Bratislava. A get out of jail free card and license to commit crime.
148. Am I right in thinking that as far as working languages go (as opposed to official languages), the EU principally uses French and English?
149 From my limited knowledge I think you would be even less well advised to show an England flag in your car in Glsgow than a Tory sticker. Perhaps Galswegians link the Conservatives with England - any Glaswegians on line?
153. Quoting from memory I believe EU documentation is about 70% English, 25% French and 5% German.
144 Um I think Musharraf maybe a leettle busy right now. One can only imagine the look on his face when Edwards was put through
149. you’re complaining about how much you hate people with different political views to you, because they hate other people because of their political views? Isn’t that a little hyppocritical.
155 - I can believe that that is what is used (French as the international diplomatic language, and English as the language of commerce and business), but I thought that all ‘documentation’ had to be produced in all official languages. Certainly the laws have to be - the cost of the translation is the only serious argument against national minority languages becoming ‘official’ (unless they are emblematic of terrorist separation campaigns).
147 - Does French officialdom and intelligentsia really care about Occitan or Gascon or Provencial for that matter? My guess is, only very very few.
48 - Status of Russian in Baltic States is a REALLY hot potato. Under czarist rule number of Russian speakers was very low; the local aristos in Estonia & Latvia spoke German, as did many townfolk; Polish held much the same position in Lithuania. To round out the picture, in Estonia there was a small number of Swedish speakers, in Latvia and Lithuanian plenty of Yiddish speakers.
Most of the Germans & Swedes decamped after WWI, and the Jewish people were exterminated during WWII. Incorportation into the Soviet Union had little empact upon Lithuania’s ethnic mix, but the opposite was true in Estonia and Latvia, where there was a massive postwar influx of Russians.
Note there is some tension of Polish minority language rights in Lithuania, but nothing as severe as the Estonian/Latvian versus Russian situation.
There is also long-standing grivence of Magyars living in Romania (Transylvania & Banat), Serbia (Voivodina), Slovakia (along Hungarian border) and even Ukraine (Subcarpathia) which has been a source of unpleasantness between Hungary and her neighbors ever since 1919, when the Treaty of Trianon trimmed down Hungary to half its former size.
150 - right on the money
158. I’m probably getting my terms incorrect. Maybe it was internal documentation (for communication between offices etc)? I remember the French lobbied to drop the use of German as it was used so rarely, and it was silly to put nationalist sentiment above efficiency. The Germans responded that it was a fine idea, and it should be taken further and only English should be used. The French quietly retreated.
One of the most silly cases of EU language protocol was that Brussels presented the Spanish government copies of the new constitution in both Catalan and Valencian, which were identical in their text.
148,. Ulster Scots….what an inspired grand fraud of government funds that one is
500 year ban - or until watford win at home again (could be longer) for LabGAIN - shocking!
Hehehehehehehehehehe
152 Terrified no, but very worried indeed….. Anyone who thinks the Conservative Party was not in fear of the election that wasnt…isnt on the same planet as yours truly. The chances at that time of a Tory victory were absolutely remote.. Gordon had not yet shown his true colours……. Only George Osborne’s master stroke and David Cameron’s no notes speech stuffed Labour.
O/T It seems the Democrat race is hotting up - the cast of the West Wing are split on which outside bet they want to doom by association. Martin Sheen (who plays President Josiah Bartlet) supported Howard Dean in 2004, and is now a Bill Richardson fan. Richard Schiff (who plays Toby Ziegler, Director of Communications) has suprised me by plumping for Joe Biden.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/sheen-stumps-for-richardson-2007-12-28.html
I would speculate that, if they were real people, Josh would support Obama (so would Sam for the sake of rhetoric), CJ would go for Hillary, Donna would support John Edwards, Amy would be all about Gravel or Kucinich (someone extreme and without a chance - she would support a woman, but would consider Hillary’s “safe, legal and rare” on Roe v Wade to be an act of treachery), and Leo would be a fan of Dodd (to make it fair - classic DNC).
To [mis]quote Bruno - “I love it when the actors get involved”
161. It still pales in comparison with funds wasted in resurrecting the long deceased Cornish. And I say that as someone who holds his Cornish heritage with great affection..
160 - priceless!
I’m sure you’ve seen this before, but:
“The EU Commission has just announced an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the European Union rather than German, which was the other possibility.
As part of the negotiations, the British Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a 5- year phase-in plan that would become known as “Euro-English”.
In the first year, “s” will replace the soft “c”. Sertainly, this will make the sivil servants jump with joy.
The hard “c” will be dropped in favour of “k”. This should klear up konfusion, and keyboards kan have one less letter.
There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year when the troublesome “ph” will be replaced with “f”. This will make words like fotograf 20% shorter.
In the 3rd year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible.
Governments will enkourage the removal of double letters which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling.
Also, al wil agre that the horibl mes of the silent “e” in the languag is disgrasful and it should go away.
By the 4th yer people wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing “th” with “z” and “w” with “v”.
During ze fifz yer, ze unesesary “o” kan be dropd from vords kontaining “ou” and after ziz fifz yer,
ve vil hav a reil sensi bl riten styl.
Zer vil be no mor trubl or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech oza. Ze drem of a united urop vil finali kum tru.
Und efter ze fifz yer, ve vil al be speking German like zey vunted in ze forst plas.”
157. G, you lie. At no point I said I hate anyone. Dislike yes. Hate, no.
Conservatives may dislike lefties, but are more likely to politely avoid them. Lefties are more likely to smash windows, slash tyres or kill taxi drivers by dropping concrete slabs from motorway bridges
Lefties use hate driven intimidation to suppress democractic expression - just like Unionists, Sinn Fein/IRA or Al Qaida.
152 You might be surprised, because given the abudance of “Irish” Pubs many with an actual Irishman or woman in the woodwork (in more ways than one) they might be able to rustle up a Gael quicker than you think!
Also note that Bratislava is one of those cities where they are VERY used to pulling out a Berlitz book or something similar. Bratislava (modern Slovak) is also Pressburg (German) and Pozsony (Hungarian).
154 “149 From my limited knowledge I think you would be even less well advised to show an England flag in your car in Glsgow than a Tory sticker. Perhaps Galswegians link the Conservatives with England - any Glaswegians on line?”
No. That is just old fashioned racism. A by product of the Scottish inferiority complex and chip on shoulder.
93
As a labour activist in West Wales I have to complement you on your assessment on the level of Plaid Cymru support and the reasons for the perceived drop in support.
I agree that now PC are in government they now have to put their heads above the parapet in terms of policies and the electorate have to take these policies, such as the Welsh language one, more seriously.These policies are not necessarily popular outside the smallish hard core of PC supporters.
The referendum which has been promised, albeit very reluctantly by Labour on more powers for the Assembly, will be very difficult to win, given the current climate and I for one will not be supporting the call for more powers as I just do not believe that the average punter(excuse the French) in Wales wants this at this point in time.
You also make a good point about the standard of Plaid Cymru activists. They tend to be much younger than Labour/Tory/Lib Dema and dare I say it brighter.If Ammanford had been in Merseyside I suspect Adam Price would be a very good Labour MP by now!
169 “You might be surprised, because given the abudance of “Irish” Pubs many with an actual Irishman or woman in the woodwork (in more ways than one) they might be able to rustle up a Gael quicker than you think!”
Yes, I would be surprised.
Irish language is a nationalist device rather than a working language. I would be surprised if any of them could translate much more than “Shamus and Billy play Gaelic football in the garden” let alone provide a legal translation service,
172 Sea Shanty Irish, if I’m wrong, lets change the point from Gaelic Irish to Cornish.
Not many Cornish pubs in Bratislava. Unless you know better.
And please dont say a Breton translator could do the job, I need to get to bed
172. Actually as a political device it hasn’t really been used as such south of the border in a long time. North of the border..fecking desperate.
You only have to look at the fate of the name of the town of Dingle to see that most people in the South have a bit of common sense.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dingle
Europe would be a very gray/grey and depressing place if everyone only spoke English.
At the end of the day, all languages are good - especially minority languages.
nite-nite.
172 Will you be decamping next door to help Nick Ainger next time. You’ll be wasting your time in PP..
171 - Thanks - I actually agree with your (cynical!) assessment of Adam Jones MP. Ross Hendry never really stood a chance in Camarthen, even with support from the national Labour party, did he?
It is admirable that as a partisan activist, you are prepared to comment so favourably on the activists of a rival party - I cannot help but wonder if there will eventually be a coup by the younger members of the party if the older generation prove to be moderated by shared-power with Labour. I think the younger generation in PC are more strident, and more confident, than their predecessors, who have already exceeded what they ever expected. If such a coup does not occur, I wonder if those bright young things will stay in PC, or work the pressure groups (Cymdeithas yr Iaith Gymraeg or Urdd Gobaith Cymru) and avoid the political party as being toothless.
Further powers are probably inevitable, although I am yet to be convinced. If PC put independence on the table after that, I think there will be a backlash. Tax-amending powers, but not primary legislation, is probably the natural limit of devolution in Wales.
178 But do these Turks have a plan. Until they can prove they can hack it in any of the big Cities you doubt it. I mean Cardiff West is their best ‘hope’. Enough said really
for 161 (with appologies to all Ulster)
Ha’ da derty devl DAR ye DISS da layul laluns tung!
Dat stud tru bye yer Billy hurse an all
An naw wallops yer eers like lambegs at Ulstairs call!
Dat saved yerz wyvs an dochters frae da evl Taig
An naw muz bu’ a fewz wee subzideez frae yez beg!
Sae hald yer wisht . . . an passz along da pundz!
178 - No plan, as far as I know - all potential, really. Very true about gaining any more seats. They could use their position to push for a greater degree of proportionality at Cardiff Bay, perhaps, but I think they are most effective when not thinking about governing or gaining AMs/AC.
They get what they want most quickly by either using the left of Labour as their political vehicle in government (token PC policy gestures as political protection against PC electoral gains) or using the Tories/LDs in opposition (giving those parties the opportunity for pro-Welsh credentials to help revive their parties in Wales), and working primarily as a set of campaign groups issue-by-issue. That’s how they’ll get more power to the Senedd, and that’s how they’ll get the new Welsh Language Act.
178 Punter, being devil’s advocate for a minute, I don’t think Plaid need to ‘hack it in the bigcities’ They can get majority figures in Wales by taking North West and Mid Wales along with some of the valley seats. not saying they will do it, or it’s likely, or anything… But when the Assembly was first envisaged, most commentators couldn’t see beyond an almost permanent Labour majority! Then look what happened.
And, Morus, I am not sure why you think primary legislation is not on the cards for a devolved Wales. One of the key issues in the first Assembly election, I remember, was parity with Scotland. I cannot see the issue fading until the two countries are treated similarly.
re 150 with you all the way there, I never thought Brown would call an election, but confess to having cold feet such was my exposure that I didn’t win as much as I should have.
181 - I think it is certainly on the cards, and will probably happen. I just think it will come about as a result of PC getting it into the referendum question, and forcing a yes/no as part of an ‘extra powers to match Scotland or not’ wedge - whereas I think Welsh public opinion would *naturally* (if it had a completely free reign) stop just short of primary legislative powers as long as there was some way of amending tax. That’s all I meant by a “natural limit of devolution”. Anything beyond that will be a little forced.
Don’t forget, Wales voted for devolution by a much more narrow margin than the Scots, and although the general impression of the Assembly is favourable (free prescriptions, no MRSA etc) I think that while Scotland is always about 40% in favour of Independence, Wales is a lot more shy of the possibility (only 20% ish), and would even block limited extra powers if they suspected it was Independence by stealth.
183
The ,narrow margin’, less than 1%, was not an overstatement.
This marriage with Plaid is not a happy one on either side. I suspect other ‘old labour’ types, like myself, would be happy to see it end in divorce, the sooner the better.
I am not ready for more powers that would play into the hands of a vociferous minority, who as you correctly identified earlier, sole purpose is undoubtedly independence.
181
Both West Wales assembly constituencies safely in Tory hands.I cannot see Plaid getting in either for many years.
184 - On the up side, valleyboy, the victory in that devolution referendum has probably been the biggest insurance check against Labour melt-down in Wales. By being able to put ‘Clear Red Water’ between Cardiff and Westminster, the Welsh Labour party still polls at over 50%, whilst Labour UK is fearful of dropping to half that score. Had the Assembly not been there to pass ‘old Labour’ measures with the party stamp, and if Labour had simply been ‘Blairism’, I think several safe Labour seats in Wales would be a good deal less safe.
For me, the failure of Labour’s minority gvt, and yet the unholiness of the current coalition, is the perfect argument against fixed term parliaments - Iain Dale please take note. Maximum term (as we already have in Westminster) is fine, but knowing this will go on for another 3 and a half years is ridiculous.
161. Yokel, I live in a Scots-speaking area of Dumfriesshire (apart from the white settlers from England). An example: someone described his unhappy marriage to me as ‘Twae fowk bidin i the ane hoose’. I am a first aid volunteer, and our first aid training nights are in braid Lallans. The language has survived despite attempts to eradicate everything except English. When I went to school half a century ago, Gaelic and Scots were proscribed, and all children had to speak English.
Why I am interested in your comment on Ulster Scots is that a friend of my wife’s comes from Ulster. She married a soldier from the KOSB, and now lives here. She speaks Scots (so, of course, does her husband) and I had the impression from some constructions she uses, that she always has done, but it is not quite the local variety. I assumed she had been brought up in Ulster Scots. I will ask her when I next see her, as your comment would suggest I am wrong on this. She is in her sixties, by the way.
Scots and English are distantly related, like Swedish and Danish, but they are not necessarily mutually intelligible. Two days ago, I was given a brace of feesans (pheasants), and two weeks ago a ‘wull bubblyjock’ (a wild turkey). A gamekeeper friend (who gave us the turkey) told me once he had recently ‘taen echt corbies’ (shot eight crows). I have had conversations today in Scots, English and Swedish, and I very much agree that linguistic diversity is a great thing.
By the way, Doric is the Scots of the North East, in Aiberdeen an thon airts (and those parts), and is noticeably different from the Lallans dialect of the Scots leid (Scottish language) spoken hereabouts.
As they say in the rougher parts of Glasgow, ‘Toodle-pip, old boy’.
186
Interesting but not sure if you’re right about the Assembly being a positive for labour.
There are not many ‘ordinary’ voters in this part of the world who have much good to say about the Assembly and was one of the main reasons why the Tories did so well here in May.It was as much an anti Assembly vote as a pro Tory one.
To put the record straight I am in favour of the Assembly, but am not ready for more powers which could lead to Independence.
186 Labour got 32.2% in the constituency & 29.6% in the regional pats of the last WA election - nowhere near 50% - a bit below what the UK party shows in polls.
188 - Really? I suppose I can imagine Labour voters in West Wales not being too fussed, but I think the Assembly is a good deal more popular in Cardiff and the valleys, and not for reasons of nationalism.
The money secured for economic regeneration in the former mining areas has been massive, and the free-prescriptions, development of Cardiff Bay, Arts funding (Millennium centre), the radical changes in education policy, free prescriptions, and the bringing back-in-house of hospital cleaning effectively eradicting MRSA all seem to be things that have gone down well. I can see how much of this is local to SE Wales, and specific to urban areas too, though.
I was never a great fan of the idea of an Assembly, but I think it has done well so far for the people it represents (compared to Scotland, perhaps), and I think that in areas of health and education policy, it is proving a key testing ground for national (UK-wide) changes like the 14-19 model, and the limits to sensible rural public services reform.
189 - Ted, I must admit, I was going off the figure that Mark Senior gave us based on IPSOS Mori polls at post 98.
In fairness, the last Welsh Assembly elections were when Blair was still in power, and also Labour always do significantly better in General Elections than Assembly/Local/European elections.
Having said that, I may well have been wrong to quote 50%, even illustratively - looking back at Mark Senior’s post, that period is from June, so includes the Brown bounce. I still reckon it is above the 40% which is regularly quoted as their North of England poll rating at the moment. The North is a stronghold, but not as strong as the Valleys, with respect of the size of Labour majorities.
O/T-”Before Voting Begins, Clinton Leads
Survey: Before Votes, Clinton Leads Delegate Chase”
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=4060224&page=1
I have to bow to your greater knowledge of South East Wales, and I agree that the Assembly has brought many positives to Wales and not just your part of the world.
Many millions have been invested here,in West wales, that may not have come if the Assembly had not been around, but try telling that to the natives!
191 Agree it was when Blair was in power but that rather goes against your argument about “Clear Red Water” doesn’t it?
193 - Hahaha! Come to the capital for an easier time of it then!
187. ‘Ulster Scots’ brougue does exist in NI but its limited to certain areas. I didnt know a soul who knew it as Ulster Scots as a langauge in itself. To us it was just what some blokey’s spoke from Ballymena and on up and the concept of Ulster Scots as a distinct dialect to be promoted is very recent to me and I’ve lived here pretty much all my life. What I find very difficult is how they attempt to turn it into a written langauge which to me stretches it. Its a spoken thing, and its a dialect of sorts but thats it.
I have heard Ulster Scots based shows on local radio(they are forever linking to Lowland Scotland and the islands just across the channel in their articles) and it seems awful contrived to me. There’s loads of phraseology I simply have never heard before. I have no doubt there is a distinct way of speaking but to me thats like saying people from Belfast have a dialect or Derry types or whatever. I would consider myself realitively well clued in but I hadnt heard of Ulster Scots claim as a disntinctive langauge until my 20s.
I can’t help but consider it a shrwed move as a counter to the republican demand for Irish and a sign that the oul Prods were a bit more smart than many imagine. You’ll often see Ulster Scots signs in the North Antrim areas in particular (Ballymena, Ballymoney & Coleraine as well as Moyle, ‘Haste ye back’ appears plenty) though a few have made their way into the Ards Pennisula as well.
Perhaps the mix with more conventional urban Northern Ireland English and other influences has taken some of the
distinctness away from the concept and it may have a stronger more noticeable identity decades ago but I think they’ve stretched it beyond credibility. And fair play to them for doing so.
196 A map of the Scots dialects from Wikipedia showing where “Ullans” is spoken (Ulster Lallans apparently)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Scotsdialects.png
191 - No, Blairism did hurt the Labour Party in Wales, but my point at 186 was that the ‘Clear Red Water’ prevented absolute melt-down.
It couldn’t stop the central party from doing stupid and unpopular things, like imposing all-women shortlists in Blaenau Gwent, which saw Peter Law overturn the biggest Labour majority in the country as an independent in both the Assembly and Wesminster elections (ironically, since he died, his wife has taken his Assembly seat, so a woman won it in spite of the Labour Party not because of them). It protected Wales from the worst excesses of PFI/PPP in schools and hospitals, which would have infuriated core support. Blairism hurt Welsh Labour - Clear Red Water stopped it being a fatal blow.
Wikipedia has details of votes for Labour in Wales at various elections: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Labour
Sorry, that was for Ted at 194!
192 - Referring back to our discussion the other day on the chances of brokered conventions, we all said the GOP was more likely to have this than the Dems (maybe 4/1).
The Dems have proportionally twice as many Super Delegates (approx 19.5% vs approx 10%), meaning that for there to be a clear winner before the Convention begins, a Democrat will need five-eighths of pledged State delegates. Because the race is short and well-funded, and Super Tuesday is so big, I cannot see a candidate winning by that sort of margin very easily. I reckon the Democrat price on a brokered convention will shorten, as it will take a while before that sort of lead is secured.
FWIW, Morus, agree your points at 186 and 198 - fighting the 1999 Assembly elections, the easiest way of coaxing Labour votes towards Lib Dems was mention of Blair! I am absolutely certain those measures enacted in Wales since, free prescriptions etc, will have brought people back.
200-Agree almost entirely with your post, but
“I cannot see a candidate winning by that sort of margin very easily.”
Neither can I, but if Hillary wins in Iowa, then things look very different.Have to go now, but I will come back later!
202-it should read, “will look very…”
This discussion of Scots etc… Is it actually a written language now Burns is dead? If not, would it not be correct to call it a dialect?
If you read both of these articles (hat-tip to Matt Drudge at http://www.drudgereport.com for both), the very subtle message is the same:
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/12/michelle_obama200712
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/12/obamas-cup-of-t.html
Obama’s campaign is subliminally telling the electorate that “this is their *one and only chance* to elect him President”. It may not be true (I reckon he’d run again in 4 or 8 years) and it is probably more true of Clinton/Edwards (last chance), but the strangeness and excitement around him means he can probably pursuade (subliminally) floating voters who are not opposed to him to counteract the prevailing voice of “Clinton now, because Obama will be there next time” in their heads. Good strategy.
205. “Fired up. Ready to go!”
Not sure where I read this little gem in the American media - most probably CNN - that Iowa caucus is normally dominated by the over 55 brigade which seems firmly behind Hilary, and Obama is aiming for the Students who are on vacation at the moment - and who rarely turn up to the caucus …
Also notice that Huckabee put his foot in it again - http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/28/huckabee.foreign.policy/index.html
showing he has no foreign policy credentials - this guy is imploding - saying there should be a crackdown on “illegal immigrants from Pakistan”
145. I had assumed that the Latin suggestion was a joke, but if it wasn’t then it would be more logical to adopt a common language for EU administrative purposes like Interlingua or Esperanto rather than Latin.
205-Yes, agree with you again. The fact that people could vote for Obama at the next election and Clinton now would push many to vote for her, but as you said, he constructed a good strategy against that idea. Now I’m off to bed(I know that everybody is sleeping!)
I agree with Mark Senior (up too a point) that Plaid has suffered with some of the older traditional Welsh-speaking voters in places like Aberconwy & Ynys Mon because of their linkage to Labour, but at the same time they are appealing more to the younger english speakers in places like Llanelli & Neath. I think that there will not be much change in their overall vote or number of seats held, although there will be a shift in the centre of gravity of Plaid’s support.
But I disagree with Morus as to what Wales ‘natural’ position is on devolution. Everyone I talk to (and I dont move in Plaid circles) thinks that what is good enough for Scotland is good enough for us. Every recent poll now shows a clear majority in favour of full legislative powers, with the anti-devolution vote shrinking rapidly.
211 I presume you don’t talk much to people in the big three then
The price you pay for Westminster is that Aberconwy and Yns Mon are eminently more winnable than Neath or Llanelli
210 If you phrase the question as a comparison with Scotland, Wales wants parity. If you ask what powers the Assembly should have, I think you’ll get a more circumspect response, especially in the cities!
208 - Nobody speaks Esperanto! More people speak Welsh than Esperanto! The whole point of Latin is that it IS a common language for all who live within the former Roman Empire, and that there is a ready supply of highly-educated experts, with a Latin modernisation unit (for new words) who all have legal qualifications sat in the cash-strapped Vatican without enough to do. Esperanto translators would cost a fortune, and it’s ugly. Latin is a beatiful language, and we could get the work done on the cheap.
The number of speakers today doesn’t matter when we discuss a suitable European common language . The important thing is how easy it could be learnt by a majority of Europeans. Interlingua, which is a modern latin with an extremely easy grammar and with a vocabulary common to several languages, the international vocabulary, would be perfect. When you hear a word you know how to spell it, which is impossible when you hear an english word.
Well Morus it’s make the Pope happy..