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Will the winner be the one with the biggest war-chest?

December 29th, 2007

ABC NewsIowa tv time.JPG

    Is Iowa down to a battle of money?

With just five days to go before the critical Iowa caucuses the heavyweight campaigns for the Democratic nominations are throwing everything at the state to ensure that their candidate comes out on top in the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House Race.

ABC News has been reporting overnight how Obama is trying to totally dominate the TV screens on Wednesday evening – on the night before the caucuses. One plan was to buy the time for a live broadcast on a range of channels.

The state has become critical for the three front runners – Hillary Clinton, Barrack Obama and John Edwards who came second to John Kerry in Iowa four years ago. If Hillary can win on Thursday then it’s going to take a massive effort for any other contender to stop her. If she finishes in second or even third place then the race becomes less of a foregone conclusion.

It’s here where Obama’s great successes in fundraising might start to pay off. The received wisdom was that it was the element where the formidable Clinton team had total domination. That all changed earlier in the year and in the next few days in Iowa having deep pockets might be everything.

On the Politico site Jeanne Cummings had a good article a few days ago. Hillary, she says “was stung in March, however, when the little-known, first-term senator from Illinois reported raising a headline-grabbing $26 million. He passed her in the second quarter, raising $33 million compared with her $27 million. The Clinton camp came roaring back in the third quarter, raising $28 million to Obama’s $21 million, but her hard-won fundraising victory came too late to change the campaign’s dynamics.“If he hadn’t raised the money that he raised, his candidacy would not have become so serious so quickly,” said Tad Devine, a consultant for 2004 Democratic nominee John F. Kerry.”

In recent days the sentiment has moved back to Hillary in the betting and the latest Betfair price has her at 0.49/1 to get the nomination. Obama is now out to 2.95/1.

Even if Iowa proves to be a disappointment to Obama he still has the resources to mount serious challenges in other states.

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Mike Smithson






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