The sparks fly between Hillary and Barack
January 22nd, 2008For those who find the battle between Clinton and Obama absolutely compelling this six minute extract from last night’s debate before a black audience in South Carolina is a must view.
The black senator has clearly decided to raise the ante - the question is whether it will do him any good or not. The Clintons are a formidable pair.
In the betting the Hillary price has continued to tighten and now stands at 0.45/1 for the nomination. Bear in mind, though, that you won’t be able to pick any winnings up until after the party convention at the end of August. That’s a fair old time to lock your cash up.
Mike Smithson
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I think we can safely say that Obama won’t be asked to join the Clinton ticket when she wins.
Perhaps its an indication that both the Clinton and Obama camps think Edwards is a busted flush and can now safely go for each other’s throat without him ‘coming through the middle’?
Some of the stuff was reminiscent of the ‘guilt by association’ of lawyers and their clients which was used in Hartlepool.
It was a low point for both candidates.
CNN has like a “opinion poll” that was giving back immediate response just like we have on Question Time.
And it appeared that Obama had a real hard time hitting +70 agreeable. Edwards came off the best in this debate… Unfortunately he’s not really in the race.
Obama came across as the “nicest” however, he got beaten up on almost everything, economy, healthcare in particular he really struggled with explaining this “present” votes and the “bankruptcy bill”.
So I think this will help hillary, he clearly is not good at debates, at all, and he is struggling to defend his voting record.
I think with the economy on the slide, the Dems will go with the “sure” option of hillary.
I think this was what the Clintons were aiming out, force Obama to be a normal candidate. Now he is and scrabbling in the dirt, Hillary can take him apart and eat him alive. You can see she is relishing it!
A very interesting clip - thanks for this.
I think it will help Hillary.
Obama has successfully portrayed himself as the nice guy up to now - actually he presents himself almost as a saint (witness his church sermon the other day that, apparently, made SeanT feel all emotional)
But during this exchange he never smiles, whereas Hillary sometimes does. Hillary also makes an attempt at a joke - “we’re just getting warmed up”.
So as well as being more authoritative she comes over - for once - as a warmer human being.
I genuinely like Obama-as a politician,and as a human being.I just fear he may be that tad too radical for America-which obviously is a lot farther to the right,than western Europe.So for the sake of seeing the REpublican Party lose the White House(and God I pity the US,for enduring 8 years of GBW),I have to support Hillary Clinton-I was told on Saturday on here she may win a 51%-49% narrow victory thus still leaving the US divided-two points:
(a)ANY Democrat reaching the White House would be cleansing-and the Senate/Congresss will be more favourable than when Bill was President
(b)As the site does have a very perceptible right-wing tilt,are many of us over-estimating the task the GOP face in retaining the White House-I’m not suggesting a 1964 wipeout when they retained 5 states,but something around the 92/96 results,with a Clinton 5-7% lead on polloing day actually seems perfectly plausible
I think Obama comes out of that better. The point he is pushing: that the Clintons are playing the man not the ball, hits home well.
6. Yes, it will an uphill task for any GOP nominee.
I may have missed it of course, but I can’t recall any of the Republican candidates saying
“Bush and Cheney have been great for America these past 8 years - I’m offering more of the same.”
Vice Presidential candidates: are these usually chosen from defeated rivals for the top spot nomination? Most of the discussion for both parties takes this as the starting point but surely it is quite rare.
I watched the entire debate and thought Edwards did very well given the squeeze he is under. It’s a real shame that this is no longer a three-candidate contest as I think the Democrats have forced themselves into making a false choice where they didn’t have to make one.
O/T: Good news for all betting enthusiasts! Romano Prodi has called a confidence vote in the Italian Chamber of Deputies. This will happen tomorrow. Surely he will win though… doesn’t he have a healthy majority there? The Senate is where he’s in big trouble.
But if it does all go tits-up, we could be seeing another wonderful election night in 2008! £2.5m was matched on the Italian election last time on Betfair. Will it ever be beaten?
We are in danger of viewing this through British eyes.
The question is how it will play in South Carolina and Florida, ahead of Super Tuesday. From my limited face-to-face knowledge of Democrat voters in those states (i.e. none) I’d guess that Obama will gain sympathy points, but Hillary will gain experience and toughness points. So a narrow victory for Hillary, but Obama’s still in the fight.
7 - I think to wheel out a bootboy strategy now smacks of desperation, it bulldozes his USP allows Clinton to bash him (and she is much better at it) and is a tacit admission that whilst SC might plum for him he is aware he is about to get hosed on Feb 5.
5. lol. The Obama-haters are out in force today. My support for him seems to have particularly irked the more irascible. Such as Captain Spaulding here, and the delightful swingvoter, who claims Obama “really needs that negro vote”.
Yes, there is a difference between Roundheads and Cavaliers, as Nick Palmer, a confessed roundhead, has wisely noted. The roundheads like Hillary, the cavaliers Obama.
As we all know, the roundheads are traditionally repulsive but right, the cavaliers romantic but wrong. I am sure the roundheads on here are happy to admit they are repulsive, which they are (cf Swingvoter), as long as they are right.
But are they? Are they really right? Do they really think its good to belittle and revile the most inspiring voice in American politics for a generation?
Hm.
7. But his response on the substance of the question was very weak - “I will be happy to provide you with the information about all the spending that we do.”
.
13 - Whenever I have heard Obama speak he sounds pedestrian. Comparisons as a black JFK are just laughable.
I don’t think either one of them came out of this well at all. Of course the greater benefit was to Clinton, even though BHO dealt with the savagery well. If he tries to fight her, she’ll win. She’s just better at it. Only one man will be happy today. McCain. He is probably the most electable republican, has cleverly got the other candidates to attack each other for him and now he’s got the two Dems going for each other’s jugulars. It’s BHO’s line that sometimes he can’t tell the difference between HRC and Regan that was a killer.
The problem Obama has now is that he’s beginning to play the victim a little bit…
“but… but… but.. you and your husband are saying nasty things about me!” (bottom lip quivers)
Sometimes this can work, but surely it goes against his ‘toughness’ and ability to lead.
Much more effective would have been to rise above it and tell Hillary that her mudslinging was part of the “old politics” and he wouldn’t engage in petty squabbling.
I also noted that when Hillary brought up spending plans, Obama didn’t have a clue what to say.
13. I am as impressed by Obama’s charisma as anyone else, but charisma by itself isn’t enough. I think the roundhead/cavalier comparison is a bit corny, but you could say that roundhead Hillary discovered her cavalier element last night.
13 It is amazing that we have built an entire political philosophy around foreskins or the lack thereof.
17. Barrack meant that he couldn’t tell whether he was running against Hillary or her husband.
“While I was slogging the streets, you were a corporate lawyer on the board of WalMart”.
Ow!
I must admit, while Hillary did well here, this foretells the thrust of the Obama argument going forward: i.e. Hillary and Bill lie.
Whether it will be succesful is another matter.
16. Check the speech he made in the church - the link is on the last thread, provided by ukpaul.
14. Yes his response was weak on that, but so was Clinton’s when he began - she shrilly intervened, hectoring and pouting like a shortchanged Breton fishwife. Not nice.
However I do fear that the comment made upthread is correct: this kind of pugilistic politics will benefit the Clintons more than Obama. The Cintons are trying to turn him into a normal black politician, they do this by needling him on race, so he has to respond as a black man, and by spreading nasty lies, which he has to rebut personally.
Obama has the ability to inspire people but this ain’t gonna be his election. He hasn’t yet got the grit to go with the charisma, that will enable him to fight off a nasty piece of work Hillary, or indeed her cigar-loving hubby. I hope he comes back in 2012 and stitches her up like a kipper.
Will this damnage the lib dems
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7201881.stm
Seems like the media are getting everything they want out of this race; They got their easy-to-understand two-person face-off, their upset by the charismatic newcomer cutting the front-runner down to size, their dramatic comeback, and now their entertaining foodfight. Based on the likely wish for a nail-biting Super-Tuesday, I think we can assume that a win in SC for Obama, however, small, will be a treated as a sign of Obama suddenly gaining a huge surge of momentum. Requiring more entertaining foodfights.
16. Obama has for me been overhyped - he isn’t in JFK’s league, or Reagan’s. Hilary Clinton on the other hand has lived up to her reputation as a ruthless harpy hiding behind a false smile.
A victory for her would be deeply dispiriting, as it would be a victory for all the most negative and underhand aspects of politics - spin, smear, false sentiment, hypocrisy. It’s easy to see why she appeals so much to New Labour cheerleaders - it’s like looking in the mirror.
So despite Obama’s shortcomings it would still be great if he won.
23 - Saw the speech, my reaction was that it was a reasonable effort. Basically though stick anyone in a church with a good speech and it sounds more than it is. I just dont find him inspiring or particularly charismatic.
Bootboy approach or not, Clinton is currently in front though no shoo in.
Roger from last thread:
There is always value in a dropping market, espcially firms that deal in the every day like supermarkets and so on. Financial Services in the UK may also be interesting mind you. If you look at the hits taken so far its the US banks that have been releasing the big damage, most UK banks seem to have avoided the worst which means they have a better platform to work from.
At the moment though any buy will have to be for the 3-5 year haul, as it should be.
24. The dissembling by Davey in that story is remarkable.
28 - true, she isn’t a shoo in and should get hammered in SC on saturday. However, BHO doesn’t have enough momentum to really gather enough new voters to win super tuesday. The clintonistas will spin next saturday as a black vote in favour of BHO and not representative.
30 - It depends he is currently streets ahead, if the result is below double digits in his favour then the Clinton spin will be merciless.
18. And Hillary didn’t play the victim card??
What about her tears in New Hampshire? When she practically blubbed herself to death? Can we all remember the cruel and nasty question which prompted poor Hillary’s crying jag -
“How do you stay so upbeat and wonderful?”
??
Dearie me.
19. The cavalier roundhead analogy is cliched, but cliches are cliches coz they are true.
Interestingly, Hillary Clinton supported Barry Goldwater, a rightwing, anti New Deal Republican, in 1964, rather than the Democrat. Presumably she thought Goldwater would get things done. Which is of course more important, if you are a roundhead.
All that said, I think Cromwell was a cavalier in spirit, which, er, somewhat confuses things.
24 - it doesn’t look wonderful
30. I remain unconvinced that Hillary will get ‘hammered’ in SC. My gut feeling is that she’ll lose, but I doubt that it’ll be a double-digit loss.
Obama will probably win by 20% now just because I’ve said that!
31. Which it could well be. If Edwards vote wilts it could be much closer than is currently being suggested.
34 - it would be a larger surprise than NH if she lost by 5% or less. I think we are looking at the 7 - 13% range. I think that’s still spinable.
34 - plus its only Sunday and Monday between S Carolina and Florida which should be at least as resounding for Clinton, even with some BHO bounce.
32. Sean, Sean, Sean. Clinton didn’t actually cry, she fought back some emotion. You’re being hyperbolic in the extreme when you say she “blubbed herself to death.” Of course, that’s how the papers presented it.
Plus, Sean, it amazes me that you’re using the tu quoque defence for Obama when to you he was this amazing politician who would unite us all in rising above the mudslinging and leading a changed America into glory… (fixes Obama’s halo)….
My prediction is that Hilary Clinton will be the Demorcrat nominee. And she will be beaten in a surprise victory for McCain.
Obama will be President in 2012.
36: Sure, the campaign can spin, but at the end of the day the media are going to write the most interesting story they can. The most interesting stories here are either “Obama rebounds” or “Obama collapses”. They can’t write “Obama collapses” if he’s won, so it’ll be “Obama rebounds”. Unless he loses.
34. I was watching the largely black audience in that debate. Obama got a lot of cheers - more than Hillary - but she got some serious applause too: much of it from black women.
Check it and see.
If black women favour Hillary then Obama is in trouble in SC. His only hope, for the moment, is the African-American vote.
I reckon he will win by just a few points, if he wins at all. This will be spun by the Clinton meatgrinders as a loss, and she will march to the Nomination.
This pains me, but I think it is the case. Obama needs to regroup for 2012. I think Hillary will be a tedious and disappointing president (if she wins - as someone says upthread, teh real victor here is McCain). Moreover, people will gag at the sight of Bill back in the WH. Is he gonna sit in the Oval Office? Will they use the same drycleaners?
Hillary will be ripe for the taking four years hence.
39 - look at the polls it won’t be a surprise McCain victory. Have you heard this wonderful McCain inspired song, it’s kinda catchy.
40 - yes Edmund, but its hardly unexpected is it. Everybody is prepared for Obama to ramp home in this state.
42. We’ll see.
The election will be in November, 11 months hence and a lot can happen. Ultimately, I think Hilary Clinton will prove too devisive to be able to secure the White House and the US will go for a “stop gap” presidency in the form of McCain, until they vote for REAL change in 2012.
This brilliant speech is from yesterday’s statement on Northern Rock:
Dr. Vincent Cable (Twickenham) (LD): I congratulate the Chancellor on brilliant originality. The Government, through their bond guarantees, are solemnly undertaking to repay the Government. The taxpayer is standing behind the taxpayer and we have a private sector solution without private money as well as nationalisation of liabilities and losses and privatisation of profits. It requires a special sort of genius to dream up such an idea and I hope that the Government’s financial advisers have been well rewarded.
I am tempted to recall the Danish economist, Hans Christian Andersen, who told the story of the two conmen who visited a particularly credulous king to sell him an imaginary suit of gold to cover his nakedness. We have a naked King Gordon, desperately trying to cover his embarrassment over the “n” word “nationalisation”.
It was said this morning in the City that the financial value in the insurance markets of the guarantee of the bonds was £2 billion. Since the private buyers are not providing that money, where will it come from? Are we talking about a guarantee of a guarantee? How else will it be funded?
The Chancellor said that there would be a profit-sharing arrangement between taxpayers and the private owner, but no numbers were given. Is it true, as the Financial Times reported this morning, that the proposal is likely to be for a 5 to 10 per cent. Government equity stake, with 95 to 90 per cent. of the uplift going to the private owner? If the proposal is of that order of magnitude, what is the position, if there is to be profit sharing, of the Northern Rock Foundation? The Chancellor mentioned it in the context not of profit sharing but of nationalisation.
Since we have heard from the north-east of England, the Chancellor will know that the Treasury’s private sale document made not a single, solitary reference to jobs or the future of the region, so what is its role under the proposals?
This morning, the BBC’s political correspondent described Mr. Branson as the “cat what got the cream”. I do not know what that is, but Mr. Branson appears to be the Government’s preferred bidder. Can the Chancellor tell us what Mr. Branson is going to contribute? My understanding is that he is proposing to put in £250 million in kind, not cash, to acquire a bank worth £100 billion, or 40 times that value. He has never run a bank, and I believe that the profits will be routed through a Caribbean tax haven, so what benefit does the taxpayer derive from his participation?
Finally, as the Conservative spokesman has already noted, Northern Rock shares have soared, while the British and other international stock markets have fallen. The only cheerful faces this morning were those of the two equity fund investors who made a speculative punt on Northern Rock a few months ago and have now recouped their investment. Meanwhile, the taxpayer is being taken for a very big ride. That will continue until the Government adopt the honest, transparent solution of taking the bank into public ownership.
24 It depends what the Lib Dems’ ambitions are. If they wish to eclipse Labour on the centre left, then it’s a missed opportunity. Labour in the 1920s didn’t miss an opportunity to kick the Liberals when they were down. The Lib Dems could have embarassed the government, and gained kudos among working class Labour voters, who they need to win over.
However, if their ambition is simply to remain where they are now, then I don’t think it will harm them. Most people will have already factored this into their decision to vote for or against the Lib Dems.
41 - SeanT, upthread was me. Do you really envisage that if Clinton wins in 08 Obama will challenge her for the Dem nomination in 12? That seems a little far fetched. As for Bill back in the White House. Loads of people want to see that. I suspect there is a sizeable proportion of Hilldog fans who only want her in the Oval office so they can get him back (remember Boris Johnson strange Telegraph article).
44 - I think calling McCain a stop gap is unfair. However, I can see Obama in McCain’s cabinet (and groomed to take over either in 12 or 16) than I can in Hillary’s. Big Mac and BHO clearly get on. HRC and Obama have serious animosity.
Oh, what’s happened to Peter Hain these days…it’s all gone quiet
38. “Clinton didn’t actually cry, she fought back some emotion.”
After being asked, and I repeat, “how do you stay so upbeat and wonderful”.
How DOES she stay so upbeat and wonderful? Really, it is astonishing.
Of course I am being hyperbolic in saying she “blubbed herself to death”, but anyone who can be moved to the point of tears by being asked “how do you stay so upbeat and wonderful” has serious issues to do with narcissism and moral imbalance.
She is Bill, without the warmth, but all the vanity. No wonder they married.
50 - On the eve of an election she could have been moved to tears by something as innocuous as ‘Do you want cream in your coffee?’. Tiredness and adrenaline do strange things to people you know.
49 - Barry I think that’s deliberate. Are there local elections in Bedford this May? Are you running candidates?
Sad to see the bleating of managerial incompetents raising their head today - ‘safe hands in a crisis’, ‘experience’. ‘sober competence’ – frankly, anyone who tries to cling onto the mantra of competence is petrified about their own lack of vision and ability to inspire others to greater heights. Just the sort of people to cast adrift in tough times. Votes are not there to be cast out of fear either, as someone was saying, some politicians use it we know and some voters are too fearful as a result I agree but the latter are to be pitied whilst those who peddle fear can only be despised.
Imagine having Brown trying to inspire anyone apart from his cheerleaders in difficult times? It’s a disaster, an absolute disaster to have someone who cannot even pretend to inspire, and who lives by division, as the leader of the whole country.
We knew that about Brown, however, but had no vote on it and now the US faces the same but at least some can vote (even if, as yet, it is mostly party supporters who tend to be poor judges of anything beyond party partisanship). Sure, Clinton isn’t as bad as Brown presentationally but the style is the same; she has been divisive throughout and, sadly, her husband has destroyed the respect that I used to have for him by mirroring this. Nice work Bill. The clip just reinforces that and the audience reaction is indicative.
Will they vote out of fear or about the false vision of managing things a bit better? Their call.
The main problem is that politics has been led down a path where we are told that leaders now have to be like stolid middle managers of yore. It has been led down a path whereby politicians are feted as gods for profiting from division. We need neither management nor division; we need to be inspired and to be brought together.
VCbet have a next VP market up
http://www.vcbet.com/coupon_outright.jsp?&eid=115037600&eid=&ot=200
Can anyone spot any value?
24. It will damage some Libs, but lots of them are pro-EU. David Heath in particular may lose some of his wafer thin majority.
54 - Obama at 9/1 is a bad bet
47 - It isn’t massively unusual for a sitting President to face a serious challenge in the primary contest. Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, Kennedy challenged Carter in 1980. There were no serious challenges to Reagan, Bush Senior, Mr Clinton or Bush Jnr but they were all pretty popular at that stage in the race (maybe surprising for the Bushes but Snr was at the height of First Gulf War popularity, and the Second Gulf War had yet to really become a problem for Jnr - and indeed he had the support of all major figures in his party).
54 - Vilsack at 33/1 looks worth a few quid, although he failed to win HRC Iowa. He’s definately angling for it. But Richardson would be a far better option for either HRC or BHO.
O/T John Kay on the rise of the cult of personality
Worth a look!
http://www.johnkay.com/society/531
57 - as I thought.
57 - And of course Lyndon Johnson withdrew in 1968 following a more serious than expected challenge from Eugene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy’s entry into the race (an even more serious challenge).
54 - Lindsay Graham at 33/1 isn’t bad either. He’s close friends with McCain and although he is not the sharpest tool in the box he is a good simple communicator. Plus he’s southern.
‘It depends what the Lib Dems’ ambitions are’
To support the Brussels agenda above everything else.
54 - It appears that on the Dem side the three most likely options are Bayh (Clinton), Richardson (either), Clarke (Obama)
Why don’t Hillary and Barack go to their version of Islington’s Granita and do a deal? I’m sure that GB could advise.
54 What’s Tipper Gore up to these days?
66 - there’s still an active draft Gore for VP as BHO’s running mate movement
54. I can tell you who isnt, Gore & Obama…shockers both.
A ever the GOP ones looks more interesting, I genuinely would not rule out Fred or Huck if McCain got it.
The rest I’ll need to go through and start examining who has been strong backers of who.
re 53. But UKPaul - Hillary is in a completely different league from Gordon. She can engage and speak reasonably well; she can make compelling cases and her smiles even look genuine.
62. I think Lindsay Graham was closely involved with McCain in pushing the Amnesty issue last year and took a lot of flak from the right on it, so would be a very bad choice for him to make if he wins. Apparently Thompson is making some announcement later today, which may shed light on if wants to run as VP or not.
62. Actually you are right on that. Graham has been prominent, very prominent in soem cases in backing hsi man.
Lieberman? Nah, cant see him at all myself. Wouldnt help either party.
68 - Wouldnt rule out Obama, remember Bush Sr got fresh with Reagan over ‘voodoo economics’ didn’t stop him getting on the ticket and them both crucifying Carter.
68 - Huckabee looks a decent bet, he scares the hell out of me but he’d bring a different constituency in for McCain.
68 - I agree those two look poor value. Some of those are up there because they have a profile at the moment. Huckabee and Thompson also look slightly unlikely choices, and whilst Richardson is possible, 6-1 looks too mean. My advice is bet on people you have never heard of!
54. Separately Intrade offer reasonably liquid markets on the VP nominations for each party.
72. A good point. And on that ecumenical note, I am off for a Singha beer in the warm tropical night.
I trust it is rainy and dank back in Blighty.
69 Indeed it’s quite refreshing not to have an Elmer Gantry style politician as PM. It’s a shame that the alternatives are so narcissistic.
73 - I think McCain is far more likely to go for a safer choice given that his VP nominee will come under greater scrutiny simply because there is a more serious prospect of them being called upon at some point.
69 LOL!
69 - Mike, I did say that she is better presentationally, although that makes her more worrying. Fear and division promoted by a smile, the uber manager who wants you to feel sorry for them having to shaft you.
76 - Sadly for you it is a lovely bright, crisp day in London. Very pleasant. I’d still swap though in a heartbeat!
O/T
GB losing his friends one by one
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article3227927.ece
77 - And once you so loved Tony
83 AS Alf said “It’s better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all”
77 - Never thought of Blair as Elmer Gantry but I can see the resemblance. The religion thing was the most disconcerting thing abhout Blair, if someone looks to a higher power then you never know what direction they will go in.
85 How do you rate his chances of becoming Pope Narcissus I?
86 With “Call me Dave” Cameron as Archbishop of Winchester and Clegg as an obscure priest.
84 - verily…but you’re merely a turncoat
(albeit an amusing one)
71 - I wrote about the possibility of Lieberman being the VP for McCain here: http://schneiderhome.blogspot.com/2008/01/obama-gore-vs-mccain-lieberman.html
82: That is one of the most devastatingly critical articels i’ve read for a long time.
“There can be no more doubt. Northern Rock is Gordon Brown’s Black Wednesday. The Prime Minister, like John Major before him, remains in office, but he is no longer in power. The mini-Budget in October, with its misconceived plagiarism of Tory tax policies, marked the beginning of the end, when Mr Brown handed over his hard-won economic credibility to David Cameron and George Osborne.
But yesterday’s statement on Northern Rock represented an even more astonishing - and shocking - derogation of power: Mr Brown handed over the keys to the Treasury to Sir Richard Branson and Goldman Sachs, destroying in the process the entire economic and political framework that he created as Chancellor in 1997. With Britain’s foreign policy still firmly in the hands of the White House and European policy managed from Brussels, it is hard to see why Mr Brown bothers to turn up to work. ”
OUCH!!
66 “What’s Tipper Gore up to these days?”
Still fly-tipping. She’s a bloody pest….
70. I wouldnt rule him out yet, Graham that is.
Fred is interesting because though he is a sleepwalker and he didnt garner much in the way of 1st preferences, Fred does carry weight as a good alternative for the evangelicals and broad conservative side.
Plus he is southern.
What I’d want to be aware of is the possibility that if it was McCain, he might pull that much younger running mate.
As for Romney, no idea.
Interesting that the FTSE has hovered around yesterdays closing point all morning. I guess people are waiting to see what happens when Wall St opens?
87 - I think Dave as more Dr Spacely-Trellis — progressive Bishop of Bevindon in the Stretchford Conurbation (which is now a must win seat)
87. Nick Clegg’s religious beliefs should see him ensconced on the Bench of Bishops.
93 - Yup!
45. I can’t understand this present adulation of Vince Cable. He comes over well because he offers a simple, easily understood solution: nationalisation. However, having underwritten 55 billion why does it make sense to nationalise NR and take on all the rest of the liabilities? All this and he has not even looked at the quality of the loan book held by NR. As 50% of their loan book was added in the year just before the crash, when the housing market was at its height, many of those loans must be suspect, which is presumably why the private sector isn’t interested. Cable might be an economist but I’m glad he’s not a banker.
I’m wary of anyone offering a solution without knowing the true state of the bank and its loans. Brown and Darling created this mess. They are privy to information denied to the rest of us and they are the only ones able to be judged on the outcome.
97. At last a bit of common sense.
101. (previous thread)
Thanks for your answer Mike. Very intelligent analysis. I forgot your many years experience in the BBC.
Presumably this is what gives you an “edge” in assessing any politicans chances in the markets?
You have a good feel for how they come across, ergo, how likely they are to prove popular with the public?
Maybe I need to work for the BBC first before I can make some serious money in this business
97. You seem to be confusing assets and liabilities. The state has already effectively assumed most of NR’s liabilities, but has none of its assets e.g. the loan book. Nationalisation would bring both parts of the balance sheet into the public sector.
It may well be the case that a chunk of the loan book turns bad, and that it proves insufficient to repay the liabilities - but this will be a problem under the currently proposed arrangement as well.
In either case, the taxpayer will have to stump up the difference, but nationalisation would be more transparent (hence its rejection, for now at least). Administration would be the best solution, and should have been used several months ago.
US interest rates cut 0.75%
US cuts by 75 bp - interesting comparision with the european response
Bernanke pees his pants
Fed cats rates by 75bp
Makes the BoE hold in Jan look underdone ?
Is this cut the Fed’s last role of the dice? If this doesn’t work, then surely its recession for America?
OT. Not sure if covered in the previous thread.
In yesterday’s first division on the EU Treaty Bill, Ken Clarke, Ian Taylor and David Curry voted with Labour and LDs.
18 Labour MPs voted with the Tories: Mick Claphan, Jeremy Corbyn, John Cummings, David Drew, Ian Davidson, Gwyneth Dunwoody, Frank Field, Roger Godsiff, Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins, Lindsay Hoyle, David Marshall, John McDonnell, Austin Mitchell, Dennis Skinner, Graham Stringer, David Taylor, Mike Wood
You know I warned you never to trust BBC Business - online or elsewhere - because they have no idea what they are doing?
This is their second story behind the interest rate cut -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5214398.stm
On the ball, boys!
105 - Technically they have another 3.5% to cut, but lets see how the markets respond that is the key. If they take it as a means of helping the situation then could be a good move. If however they see it as a panic response then things could get extremely hairy on Wall St.
104. The more interesting divergence is with the ECB which hasn’t budged since the crisis started.
To me it feels like we’re reliving the Japanese banking crisis but on a global scale.
I think this guy gets the Pvt Fraser award though:-
“Unfortunately they have no power to reverse what in my opinion is the worst post-war recession,” said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer in New York
Big jump in the FTSE.
108. Well TFSE’s shot up to +80-90, but all eyes will be on Wall St. like you say.
106 Dennis Skinner voting with the Tories?!? Thought he would have rather super-glued himself to the benches…
100 Blotter, so far we have only underwritten half of the liabilities, although as I mentioned we are not privy to all the information. The point is that the quality of the assets may well be suspect. Nationalisation could lead to a big write-off of the taxpayers’ investment.
I agree that administration, an orderly winding down of the bank and the phased repayment of taxpayers’ loans would be preferable.
112 - Dow Futures still indicating a 300 point drop from what I can see.
105 No there will not be a recession as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth either in the US or here , despite the wishes of many Conservative posters on here .
The dollar is weakening further on the back of this base rate cut. There may be a real danger that the fixed interest market could begin to price in higher inflation ahead and we see US bonds yields begin to creep up, undoing any benefit of the Fed cut for the US housing market as most US mortgages are priced of the longer dated bonds not money mareket rates.
The FTSE seems to have changed its mind that this is a good thing already and the market has gone back off. Or may the market is just reflecting the feeling that if the FED cuts by that much things must be worse that we thought.
117 - last time Fed cut by as much was 26 years ago, only times it has cut outside its normal cycle in recent times was as the dotcom bubble burst and after 9/11. This is a huge sign of just how bad things look for the US.
116. Yes all I dream about is recession, tax rises, government waste and failing schools and hospitals - I can’t wait for all that stuff to continue just so I can whinge about it on here… lol (not).
116. Get your record unscratched, Mark. No Tory on here wants a recession. Most are not predicting one. What we are suggesting is that the government finances are in a mess and this will have consequences.
Personally, I think a good deal of the doom and gloom is overdone, particularly on house prices and have bet accordingly. For example, you may have missed in yesterday’s RightMove report on housing that was universally spun as previewing a trip to hell in a handbasket, that asking prices in London actually went up sharply last month.
My predictions - value: zero - UK GDP growth of 1.75/2.00 percent this year and London house price growth of 3 percent.
Oscar nominations just announced, my nomination tips all seem to be present and correct, Ellen Page/Juno, Depp, Atonement etc. As for winners I’ll have a closer look but There Will Be Blood stands a much better chance than at the BAFTAs and there may be mileage in laying Julie Christie (oo-er) whose price may well be too short (when they go up). Philip Seymour Hoffman if priced well for Charlie Wilson’s War (Javier Bardem again may well be a favourite but overpriced).
106. Interesting mix of the Labour hard-left and the (pitifully few) principled Labour eurosceptics.
Shame the rest of Labour and the Liberal Democrats are too cowardly to vote against this betrayal.
Interesting thread on Conhome on Hagues mauling of Millipede yesterday.
Worth a look..
116 “there will not be a recession as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth either in the US or here”
Does that bold assertion come with a money-back guarantee??
120. Baskerville: “116. Get your record unscratched, Mark. No Tory on here wants a recession.”
He can’t. He lives on hatred on other parties (especially the Tories) and he thinks they do too.
I see he’s been severly reprimanded by Anthony Wells about his partisan nastiness over on Polling Report too.
It would be nice if he could remove the chip from his shoulder but, unfortunately, there is no prospect of that.
123. I think it’s what’s called faith based politics. You’ve just got to believe, and if it goes wrong you blame the unbelievers.
122 It was a shame that only 3 Conservative MP’s were prepared to put country before party and vote against their party line .
116. Always nice to read the opinions of a genuine expert.
123 I offered all on here the opportunity to take me up on a wager on this a month or two ago , but none of the doomsters would put their money where their mouths were .
126. I’ll tell you what, Mark, if you think that this treaty is in the country’s interest, why not back a referendum and let the people decide? No?
Dow futures pointing to a 450 point slump now from what I can see.
I noticed some discussion on VP choices for 2008. Historically a VP choice is used to ‘balance the ticket’; either in term of personalities, politics or geography.
Hence the young JFK chose the older and experienced LBJ; the radical Reagan choose the establishment George Bush; the inexperienced GWB chose Cheney; Kerry was from New England, so he chose Southerner John Edwards.
Given Clinton in a women and Obama is African-American, both radical departures from the usual type of candidate (White male protestants) both will have to balance the ticket with a ‘safe pair of hands’, someone to reassure voters concerned with electing a women or African-American. This would certainly be a white male establishment figure with a lot of experience. Given that Clinton and Obama are both Senators they may also want some from outside Washington, such as an experienced Governor.
Given all of this, I would rate the chances of a Clinton/Obama ticket as nil.
Oh dear, FTSE now down…. Doesn’t bode well for how Wall St. will react, does it?
I guess you could compare what the fed have done to a doctor giving a blood transfusion to a patient thats bleeding out? Initially the transfusion would raise raise the blood pressure and improve the patient, but until you fix the the cause of the blood loss, the new blood will simply drain away….
116. ‘No there will not be a recession as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth either in the US or here , despite the wishes of many Conservative posters on here.’ by Mark Senior January 22nd, 2008 at 1:45 pm
You forgot to include a time period and odds.
133 No I didnt chrishio . In my original posts the timescale was this year 2008 and the odds were evens .
116. I thought you were a Lib-Dem supporter? Dear old Vince Cable has been forecasting disaster for the UK for many years - Long before any Tory I know, has.
135 Some Conservatives have been forecasting disaster and recession every year since 1007 .
134. I seem to remember that you predicting there wouldn’t be a house price crash either. In Southern California the median house price has fallen to $402,000, down from $484,000 last April. (http://www.dqnews.com/RRCA0108.shtm)
Can you think of a good reason why the UK will be any different?
135 Some Conservatives have been forecasting disaster and recession every year since 1007 .
Not even Jack W is that old…
136 - Amazing that, as far as I know there were no Conservatives around in 1007, much less a sophisticated market economy.
136 And most Conservatives have been predicting that the Labour and LibDem manifesto commitments would prove to be a great big box of tissues, each printed with the single word - “Lies”
LOL! Probably! But it doesn’t change the fact your former leader and treasury spokesman reakons we’re badly placed for a downturn, which would hint to me that we can expect recession? Clearly you don’t agree with “twinkletoes” on this matter?
136. 1007 was a very bad year for the pig market - with Viking raids disrupting the economy, prices were down sharply at the Lincoln and Stamford fairs. Thegn Aethelbert was forced to provide extra pigswill to his cash-strapped tenants.
139 Yes, Ethelred was probably a Labour man in spirit trying to buy his way out of his difficulties.
137- yes, a very good reason: there is a massive discrepancy between structual demand and supply within the UK housing market which does not exist in the US. This is for the obvious reasons that the US has lots more land and hence much less restrictive planning laws.
I saw a commentator on Bloomberg or CNBC this morning saying that the European Central banks and administrative elites were about as out of touch with the real world as the Bourbon royal family and just as revolution ended that dynasty and others in Europe - the same fate awaited todays European rulers . I dont know who he was - but it seemed to be a serious comment but i only saw a snippet - perhaps there is something in it . When you look at the way the US fed acts ( may be a bit pannicky but you feel it has its finger on the pulse of the economy and real life experience ) whereas the European central bankers seem to be an odd lot
oooppps 1997 LOL
Sky: Information Commissioner demands detailed account of expenses for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown….
144. A comforting fable, one suspects.
Dow down 420
If you have figures going back to 1007, can we assume that they are seasonally adjusted?
Dow opens 400 points down…
134. Sorry Mark Senior didn’t see your original post. Haven’t bet on here before but will think about this one if its still open. Things are beginning to look pretty grim.
145 - ECB short-term interest rates are 4% and inflation 3%, making real rates very low, while unemployment is back below its trend non-inflationary rate. If anything, interest rates should be higher. Who’s out of touch?
O/T the Lib Dems have no killer instinct. They should have voted with the Tories regarding the Treaty Amendment - so much for democracy. The LDs would rather cosy up to Labour than fight against them. How pathetic, useless and weak they are. The EU is closing in a permanent political victory over each nation state, and all politicians left right and centre are all in collusion with each other. In less than a year we will no longer be British but European. Defeat is coming our way, HM the Queen is happy to sign us all away to permanent socialism and euro-federalism. Labour are very very very happy now. Please give us a Euro referendum even if you try to sway it by preventing ex-pats from voting and include EU immigrants in the electoral pool. I would rather be defeated by the ballot box than by treacherous underhand politicians.
Weaker dollar?
Woohoo, I know where I’ll be going in spring!
150. The series does have a few breaks in it, I admit. Particularly sampling problems around 1348 - shortage of field operatives due to illness…
126: This treaty is another step, some say small, others say somewhat larger, but a step nonetheless, towards the END of this country as a meaningfully separate entity. Squaring this with your pompous and absurd post is a logical impossibility.
Bit by bit, drip by drip, Europe is taking powers away from us. Each time, people like you dismiss it as a ‘tidying up exercise’ or some such weasel words.
When I was less than a year old, there was a vote on remaining in a trading bloc. Since then politicians of all colours have given away powers in chunks often too small to be noticed by most, but which cumulatively amount to a huge transfer to an unelected, unaccountable and staggeringly wasteful bureaucracy which commands precious little support from the people it purports to represent. Indeed it goes out of its way to avoid asking for that support in the way it brazenly ignores calls for referenda and rides roughshod over the will of the people of Europe.
As a liberal ‘democrat’ your stance is risible.
155
Thats really upsetting, I couldn’t get on a xmas flight to NYC, now it’ll be as bad this xmas. Where will I go to spend my parsnip money?
p.s.
Can I come in from the window ledge?
154 Leaving aside the rights and wrongs, you’re certainly right that the Lib Dems lack the killer instinct. Labour didn’t lack the killer instinct when they were destroying the Liberal Party.
Hey! lets all go and live in Scotland, they’re about to jump ship!
http://tinyurl.com/2rawnl
158. Yeah you might as well, sure Tescos is still there selling its stuff and petrol is going to be a bit cheaper than it was last week. Can’t be that bad.
159, or Andrew Neil when he rather tore apart Clegg on the Daily Politics. Clegg was making out a vote on the constitution was effectively a referendum to leave the EU altogether.
Clegg and Brown have something in common. They’ve both convinced the media through endless repetition that they possess talents they don’t have. Clegg’s is communication skills which he palpably lacks, and Brown’s is how careful he was with the economy when he was saddling us with endless PFI contracts and mounting debt.
Please sceptics, there will never - repeat, never - be a referendum on the Reform Treaty. Let it go.
163, perhaps, perhaps not. There could be a non-governmental referendum organised by wealthy sceptics.
Also, saying “Please stop disagreeing with me” isn’t the most convincing of arguments.
163 “Never” is not a word to be used in politics.
153 Tommy Judd I am afraid it might be you who may be misreading the signs. The Southern states in the Euro have inflation, even using the inaccurate CPIite measure, of over 4% and the structural disparities are growing.
There is a good article here that explains more.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=VTO5KMVYJNKP5QFIQMFSFFOAVCBQ0IV0?view=DETAILS&grid=A1YourView&xml=/money/2008/01/21/ccview121.xml
163. The voice from the bunker again.
Mark Senior, and Tommy Judd etc.
I’m a sceptic, and I don’t think there will be a referendum on the Constitution - I accepted that a while back.
I think most democrats and decent people have likewise acknowledged that they can’t defeat this conniving and sullen government through a Commons vote. They have to get a eurosceptic party into power first. And that means keeping the loonier sceptics quiet, so the Tories don’t appear bonkers.
This is working at the moment. Ergo Cameron will win next time, and then there will be a reckoning on Europe.
Because that is inevitable: you smelly europhiles with your halitosis of the soul cannot permanently override the will of the people, you cannot go on ignoring referendum results in perpetuity.
And why? Because deep down you know it is wrong not to give a referendum. But instead of admitting this, you avoid the question, you look away, you conceal your doubts, you hide the embarrassing understains from the hotel maid by stuffing the sheets in the wardrobe.
It won’t wash.
Europhiles have already lost the moral argument; a political defeat is therefore just a question of time.
I’m surprised that only 3 Tories voted with the government on the EU Constitution. I’d have expected about half a dozen more.
164. “There could be a non-governmental referendum organised by wealthy sceptics.”
Some such people have been sponsoring ‘Parish Polls’ on this very issue. One in Wakefield achieved a massive % majority in favour of a referendum.
Too bad turnout was 7%, abstentions 93% - basically people aren’t fussed about the treaty.
169. Good news though - discipline is improving markedly, just a few sad old nutters left in the europhile rump.
163. I would rather have a Euroreferendum and a ‘Yes’ to Europeam integration returned than no referendum vote. We’ll give you a head start - allow everying adult resident in the UK the right to vote regardless of their nationality and exclude expats from the vote, afterall its the people living in this country who must decide how we are governed not complaining ex-pats who deserted their follow countrymen. You federalists might just win and we would accept the result. I would rather you won your ‘Yes’ to EU treaty vote than there be no referendum at all.
Amazing, you can write anything here about anything and never get a response. Mention “Europe”, and look what happens.
166 - Witan, the ECB sets monetary policy for the Euro Area in aggregate as the Fed does for the US. Southern inflation rates aren’t relevant.
172 - I’m not a federalist.
174. Sorry for my error. In May this year HM the Queen will sign the Reform Treaty which comes into force on 1st January 2009. Westminster will become a UK regional parliament equivalent to what Holyrood and Cardiff are at the moment - a toothless talking shop with no real power. These latter parliaments will become redundant so what was the point of devolution? A NuLab con trick to power that’s all.
173 you need to be more logical if you want to be listened to. It would be fair to say that Club Med inflation rates are not an overriding facotr, but to dismiss them as irrelevant on the basis that the ECB sets policy in aggregate is silly, as, of course, they are part of the aggregate.
The Euro is a political and not an economic tool. This is why the ECB remains under political control. Germany will now have a fight on its hands to pursue monetary policy suitable to the German Economy. The reason for this is that the ‘Southern’ states are being crucified. My International Finance professor on my degree course gave the Euro 20-25 years. I think he was probably right.
175 - That’s okay, easy mistake. I’m not a federalist; I just don’t care. I disagree with your view that Westminster will become a toothless parliament but wouldn’t feel strongly even if it did. And this is my point: nothing generates more words here than this issue and it’s a non-issue in the real world. There will not be a referendum and the treaty will enter force. Can’t we move on?
170, when do too many abstentions make a vote meaningless? I notice we haven’t stopped having local council or European elections despite paltry turnouts.
Oh wait, you disagree with the anti-treaty vote so of course *that* is meaningless.
I cannot understand why SeanT and others get so worked up about the EU - they are very much in a small minority. Before Christmas Mori asked respondents “What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)”. there was no prompting.
Guess what the proportion was of respondents who said one of Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO?
Just one miserly percent.
The vast majority of people just do not give a damn.
173: yes, Europe does tend to bring out the ranters.
Still, at the end of the day the issue is simple: Labour promised a referendum, for short term political reasons. Now they weasel out of it, after minute changes to the constitution. We even have a Labour-dominated Commons committee saying foreign policy elements are unchanged. Then there are the countless quotes:
Merkel: “The substance of the Constitution is preserved. That is a fact”
Rasmussen (Danish PM): “symbolic elements gone, core the same”
Bertie Ahern: “They haven’t changed the substance - 90 per cent of it is still there.”
Giscard d’Estaing: “This text is, in fact, a rerun of a great part of the substance of the Constitutional Treaty.”
Wallstrom (EU Commissioner): “It’s essentially the same proposal as the old Constitution”
Pretending there are any significant differences between the two is exactly the sort of dishonesty that gives politicians a bad name.
151 - that’s a very modest fall when you consider it was not open yesterday so that reflects the past two days of activity in other markets. Glad I bought shares this morning. The markets have overreacted over the past three months (not that there shouldn’t have been a downward correction but the world economy is not looking that hopeless).
176 - I wouldnt give it that long, and if it explodes under the weight of its own internal divergences it will be very very messy!
179. “I cannot understand why people get so worked up about the abolition of slavery
Funny how some people get so uppity about our sovereignty.
The majority want a referendum, and we were promised one. It’s as simple as that.
Or it would be if the lying Labour leadership and the cowardly EU-phile Lib Dems would actually honour their promises. Still, once you’ve got the votes you can safely ignore the electorate, right?
176 - kingbongo, since we’re comparing the size of our degrees, I should tell you that I do this for a living in the City.
As you say, it’s the aggregate inflation that matters but - so far - consistent 3%-plus Spanish inflation (not Italian) has been more than offset by a long disinflationary cycle in Germany. These pressures have been felt most strongly in the German labour market, so also offsetting ‘pipeline’ pressures in Spain, Italy and even France.
“The ECB remains under political control”. No it isn’t. “The ‘Southern’ states are being crucified”. No, they’re not. Not only should you visit them, but you should look at the stats. Spain is decelerating from a long boom, while Italy and Portugal have specific problems with competitiveness that they needed to work through whether in the Euro Area or not.
As I told francis, I have no commitment to the euro. I couldn’t care less. But let’s use facts.
177. Stop this boring astroturfing please.
179. “I cannot understand why suffragettes get so worked up about votes for women, they are very much in a minority…”
“I cannot understand why Bostonians get so worked up about American independence, they are very much in a minority…”
“I cannot understand why lefties get so worked up about abolishing child labour, they are very much in a minority…”
“I cannot understand why Churchill and others get so worked up about German rearmament, they are very much in a minority…”
The voice of the sneering Establishment, through the ages.
179 - being in a small minority does not make you wrong. As per the previous thread (for example), Churchill spent the Thirties trying to convince people of the threat arising on the continent, and was mainly ignored or disagreed with.
179: Oh well that’s all right then. people haven’t noticed we are being sold down the river, so it doesn’t matter.
Of course, day to day, especially with the economy falling apart, the MOST important thing on people’s minds isn’t Europe. I doubt I woudl have mentioned it if asked. But that doesn’t mean that in the long term it isn’t hugely important.
Your stat means nothing apart from reflecting the staggering and shameful ignorance of people when it comes to politics in general. This depressing fact leads to 29% of people in 1983 voting for ‘the longest suicide note in history’ having not read it, or 31% still voting tory even when they were tired, divided and clapped out in 1997.
Apathy isn’t an argument in favour of anything.
181. What did you buy?
The European Central Banks mandate doesn’t include growth I believe, they inflation-target, and with inflation rising, they are reluctant, with the current mandate to cut euro-zone interest rates.
89 -
There is no chance of McCain putting BHO in his cabinet. BHO is to the left of Kerry on Domestic policy (to the extent that he has a domestic policy) and very antiwar. Unlike Kerry (or even Edwards) McCain has no long history of bipartisan work with Obama.
my predicted tickets are:
McCain/Lieberman
Romney/Giuliani or Romney/Thompson
Huckabee/Powell or Huckabee/Giuliani
Clinton/Webb or Clinton/Kaine
Obama/Webb or Obama/Bloomberg
What McCain song are you referring to?
186 - WTF?
Sorry all, I should have known better. I’ll only contribute to non-EU threads in future.
Afternoon all
I confess, as an LD, I’m disappointed by Nick Clegg’s reaction to this. I have absolutely no problems with a referendum on the EU Treaty - I think it would do the body politic some good as well. IF there is a “yes” vote, I would then expect the sceptics to accept it. If there is a “no” vote, then it’s up to the elected leaders to take account of the people’s wishes. I’m also not saying that a “no” vote leads to withdrawal from the EU - it doesn’t. What it does say is “this far and no further”. Despite Mike’s comments, there IS a perception that too much power has gone from Westminster to Brussels. In addition, of course, too much power has gone from local councils to Westminster.
To be fair, Cameron has also prevaricated on this. He knows well that if he doesn’t get to power until 2010, it will be too late. He will have to move on as well.
I note the sharp cut in US interest rates. I just wonder if this is a bit of an over-reaction. I can’t see the BoE slashing 0.75% off UK rates and, as Ted argued this morning, the risk of inflation is much stronger here.
192. Webb is interesting and is pure red state Democrat but will some see it as being too early for him to go to VP?
Just cant see McCain going with Leiberman though, too maverick a ticket.
“while Italy and Portugal have specific problems with competitiveness that they needed to work through whether in the Euro Area or not.”
Their problems are made worse by the fact that they can’t devalue. For us, devaluation and interest rate cuts kick-started the economy in 1993.
O/T
I hope one of the Opposition parties point out this fact to the Chancellor soon.
The cost of borrowing money is continuing to rise this month, despite a cut in the Bank of England base rate at the start of December and a sharp reduction in Libor, the rate at which banks lend to each other, over the past few weeks.
Yesterday, Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society and fourth-largest mortgage provider, became the latest lender to announce price rises across its tracker mortgage range. It will increase rates for new borrowers by up to 0.15 percentage points as of tomorrow.
Brokers said Alliance & Leicester is gearing up for a similar move this week; Woolwich, which is owned by Barclays, announced price hikes for new customers only last week. Other lenders are expected to follow suit in the coming weeks.
Melanie Bien, a director at the independent mortgage broker Savills Private Finance, blamed the credit crunch for the price rises
197.
Order ! Order !
When will we get the Daily Mail headline …
Consumers SHAFTED - bank rates Down
Mortgate rates UP
Who’s in charge of the economy Gordon?
187- “The voice of the sneering Establishment, through the ages”
Bit like your pro-americanism then?
198 - God help us if we start calling for the Government to set the price of anything, least of all credit. The Bank of England sets the price at which it lends to banks and other financial institutions. That is all. The rest is supply and demand exactly as it should be.
197. These are for new products - suggest borrowers shop around..
On the referendum issue, I think it is quite straightforward: we were promised one by all parties, so we should have one.
For myself, if we were to have one, I should probably vote yes. My main reason for probably voting yes is that no one has come up with a constructive case for how we would proceed in the EU if we voted no. Some change needs to be made to accommodate a bigger membership. That’s not to say that I think that the constitution is particularly wonderful - I don’t, I think it’s pretty rubbish actually. But better this reform than no reform.
The EU, far from being the Conservatives’ strongest suit, is their weakest suit. It is not a policy to argue that the EU is not what the Tories want it to be unless they can demonstrate that they can change it into something more appropriate. They have not begun to do this. If Gordon Brown had any strategic sense, he would hold a referendum to expose this. It’s not as though he currently has a strong position to throw away, and it might show some of that much-mocked courage.
200. Banks and building societies are trying to rebuild their margins and earn some money to offset their recent heavy losses, hence the rising ’spread’ between mortgage rates and official rates. In principle of course, the institutions least affected by the credit crunch should be able to use their better position to offer cheaper deals and thus win some market share. Not sure there is much sign of this happening though.
200. Why aren’t you calling for the abolition of central banks if that’s what you think?
199. Er, what?
193. Very sensible. From now on I think all anti-referendum Europhiles should simply stop posting about Europe. Because they are wrong, and they know they are wrong, and everybody else knows they are wrong, and attempts to prove otherwise are just embarrassing and pointless.
Can we all agree on this so we don’t clutter up the threads? Can we? Anti-referendum Europhiles: just admit you are totally wrong, and your opinions are worthless, and your views are idiotic and repugnant, and we eurosceptics will stop humiliating you in arguments.
Sounds like a good deal to me.
194. Most democratic eurosceptics like myself would rather be defeated i.e ‘Yes’ vote returned than no referendum at all. To make the result truly reflect the wishes of all ‘Europeans’ allow only British and EU citizens resident in each country the right to vote in it. If say 10 million EU citizens move across here and then vote ‘Yes’ in a referendum and the swing the result to ‘Yes’, I’ll accept the result although fiddled. Votes from ex-pats are void as they have chosen to move elsewhere and deserted their country.
205 - I’m against a referendum, not europhile, not wrong (at least in my opinion), didn’t argue with anyone on questions of principle - just economics, wasn’t humiliated by anyone’s arguments. But I’m more than happy not to head down this dead-end again.
If that’s what you mean seanT.
antifrank @ 202
Yes, yes, yes. Well, to your first two paragraphs at least.
Y’see, I actually think that the Lib Dems actions are in the weakest position over europe.
AIUI, they believe in a truly federal europe. One that sees each decision made as closely to those who’ll be affected by it as possible. And for the work that /must/ be done centrally, I assume that they believe in full democratic accountability.
That all sounds sensible to me - and is certainly better than the complex fuzzy mish-mash arrangements we have now. The more thoughtful Tories are beginning to make a case for “change from within”, and some of the nuttier ones are attached to their “better off out” position. But aren’t the Libdems meant to be the party that is specifically interested in liberty, democracy, and constitutional issues? Surely this should be an area in which they can make the running.
So why on earth don’t they do that? Make the case for their vision of a properly liberal, democratic, federal europe? Why do they make a show of blindly accepting everything that comes from the current EU?
Why don’t they push for a radical reshaping of the constitution - one that focusses on democracy, subsidiarity, transparency and simplicity? And why do they refuse to hold Labour to account for breaking their manifesto promise?
202. That’s a cogent argument - I don’t really agree with you, but I take your point. The Tories will indeed have to come up with some positive ideas on Europe, in time
But the bottom line is this: Brown won’t call a referendum because he is a coward, and he is afraid of the people - like so many europhiles.
[205] So SeanT- this would be like the sixth Singapore Sling would it? Cause this looks like a pretty well refreshed post to me…
207. C-, must do better. Now get on with your French prep.
211, 186 - harry, is this your MO? A short raid with the cryptic putdown that means nothing to your hoped-for victim?
205. No, the agreement was that anti-referendum Europhiles should shut up, because they are wrong and embarrassing. Eurosceptics are allowed to post, by contrast, because they are totally right.
Seems pretty fair and clear to me. I hope we can all abide by this agreement, for the benefit of the site.
The Eurosceptic/phile terms are hackneyed and totally past their sell by date. You can like Europe and not like the EU. You can also like some parts of the EU (Schlengen) and dislike others (CAP). It’s not all or nothing you know. Equally, it is possible to oppose simple yes/no referenda and have informed critical view on the EU.
214, I agree that the EU is neither a paragon of virtue nor a cesspool of sin. It does have massive flaws though, not least a total lack of accountability both politically and regarding the accounts which seem to have not been signed off since John Major was PM.
The simmering resentment of the public at being ignored year after year is only causing a head of anti-EU steam to build. Politicians should stick with their promise for a referendum and in so doing restore some trust in politics.
I suggest that the issue of Europe does hinge not on votes in the HoC, unless there is a Labour rebellion of 90+ MPs.
What matters is how this matter is portrayed in the media. The Sun, Mail and Telegraph are all lined up to get very angry with Brown over it. The Times appears to be less Euro-sceptic. Will the media stir up the public who are largely apathetic on Europe?
It probably hinges on to what extent the BBC and ITV focus on the “nutty brigade” within the Eurosceptics, or will they focus on the issue of a Govt “reneging on an electoral promise”. My guess is that the BBC will focus on the nutters although the Daily Politics show today focused on splits in the LDs. ITV tend to portray the Conservatives a more favourable light.
Bill Cash and his gang need to think how their activity will be portrayed in the media. Because influencing voters depends more on the images than pedantic points and eccentric behaviour. Has Bill learned lessons from the 90s? We shall see.
With so much going it’s a little quixotic focusing on the Oscars but notable in the acting nominations are first time nominees 82 year old Hal Holbrook and 83 year old Ruby Dee.
John McCain wouldn’t do himself any harm by pointing this out (Dee has also been a well known civil rights activist and was a friend of MLK).
216 I think the main effect is to reinforce the government’s reputation for duplicity and dishonesty among the public at large. Gordon Brown might have shaken that off, but he can’t do so now.
214 Agreed. Personally I am a europhile becoming ever more EU-sceptical and I have to say Nick Clegg went down in my estimation today. Will be interesting to see how many LibDem MPs follows his line… I understand a few will not.
Excellent thread today.
1. No one cares about Europe. There is a very wide but very shallow feeling that to much power has gone to Brussells but I suspect that you could easierly get 50% support for birching people who drop litter in polls. Its just no one really thinks it will happen. Of course Euro obsessives will devote there time, money and lives to the issue but most people just don’t care. The damage to Labour will be trust not euroscepticism. They promised a Refferendum and are delivering.
2. LD’s on Europe? I’m sure the votes we loose over Europe are justr that. Lost. I can’t see it doing us any further damage, although that said I think the current policy is a presentational disaster.
3. Hillary. I think peoples persoanl dilike of her is underminning good judgement on this site. Obama is far closer in my view to a Barlett fantasy presidency of my dreams but thats the problem. She is plainly the most experienced Democrat with the resources to run. Shes humanising her self, has improved her presentational skills and moved from Bills shadow. While people may hate the prospect i don’;t think anyone is saying she couldn’t do the job or is only in the race because of the husband. Just look at the voting figures for her first senate race then her reelect. Its far more than a first term incumbancy bounce.
219. defection alert?
216 HF I tend to agree with that analysis.
I thought Clegg messed up today on both the Daily Politics and the Today programme. I thought that focusing on a straight in or out referendum was a good ploy by the LDs rather than a referendum the Conservatives are calling for. It will get support from the ‘out and out’ antis (so a cleaver ploy to get votes from pros and antis at the same time, which is pretty impressive if you can pull it off!) and expose the ‘nutters’ as you call them in the Conservatives causing a split, which isn’t currently there (Bill Cash was sounding very reasonable this morning).
However to work the idea has to get momentum. However all the confusion on whether the LDs will abstain or vote against on the current stuff has swamped any opportunity of getting that message across and makes the LDs look like ditherers instead. So currently a wasted opportunity for them I think.
220, 80% of people support a referendum when polled.
212 Tommy. Sadly I think you are wasting your time.
Lib Dems need to be careful that they don’t appear to close to Brown/Labour. The coming election will see a big anti-Brown vote, IMO, and Lib’d need to make sure they don’t find themselves caught in the cross-fire, guilty by association.
I don’t think the Lib Dems lose any votes through supporting Europe. The sort of people who are anti-europeans are generally not very liberal either!
220 - Bang on about Hillary, like I have argued before people need to evaluate Hillary the candidate not Hillary the caricature!
225 I think a lot of Lib Dems still hanker after the idea of a “progressive alliance” with Labour. Labour by contrast, have a long record of using, and then discarding, the Liberals/Lib Dems.
New thread - “Is John McCain the GOP’s Ken Clarke?”
228. Yes. Yet the Lib Dems appear to enjoy being the victim in this abusive relationship - it’s a bit like one of those upsetting cases of battered women being continually attracted to violent partners.
221 No danger of that. No person who is not dull beyond belief agrees with everything their leader does except the majority of the Labour party.
I just feel that if you believe if liberalism and democracy then you ought to practise it at all times not just when you think the result will go your way.
It was rather evident from Nick’s speech on public service reform that he still wouldn’t let local councils do things he disagreed with. I think if his words about giving power to people are to be anything more than words you have to accept that people will sometimes do things you find uncomfortable.
It’s no good saying a vote would be about something else, or that one side would be hugely disfavoured by the tabloid press. On that grounds as LibDems we would be arguing in favour of cancelling the general election.
Newsflash from BoE appeared a few moments ago - no bringing forward of Meeting
Rumours of big write downs at Bank of China http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7202086.stm
And as if that weren’t enough - British Tornado bombers have been scrambled to intercept Russian aircraft, it’s alleged.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1301862,00.html
What a day!
[228] Well, this Lib Dem is pretty anti and most members I know are dismissive of both our opponents in fairly equal measure…
231. A refreshingly honest and well argued post Jon. Sadly few of the senior members of your party appear to share your views.
Tommy Judd (or Snowflake 2 or whatever) you are showing a marked ignorance of the Euro Zone and its disparities.
The southern states are important as the zone is not a single state unlike the US. So comparisons with the Federal Reserve Market Committee are spurious.
Listen to Sarkozy in France demanding a weaker Euro, or Spain and its banking problems resulting from a burst property bubble and spending that suddenly will stop as the EU tap is turned off there and targeted further east.
Look at the differentials in Euro bonds between states, the dominance of the German economy which has set the interest rates recently.
Ask Airbus who must sell in dollars, or the car manufacturers in the Euro Zone exporting to the US and the UK which make up 70% of their market for Europe sourced sales.
The Euro Zone is drifting into trouble and the ECB will only recognise one side of the problem: inflation.
Ireland is suffering as the one size fits all interest rates encouraged an enormous bubble there which is now bursting with awful consequences.
And I live and breath the Euro and Sterling rates, and do business in the Euro Zone, and I am sure that the current rate for the Euro is unsustainable for all but Germany.
Norman Normal I really do hope that the RAF did not scramble bombers to intercept bombers. That would be an unusual response.