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Will the Texas fire-wall hold for Hillary?

February 13th, 2008

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    ..or is PBC’s 50/1 shot now just too strong?

Three more primaries and three more emphatic victories for Barack Obama – the black senator from Illinois who was tipped here on May 27th 2005 when the odds on him winning the presidency were 50/1. He was tipped here again on October 23rd 2006 when the price had moved to 33/1.

    To my mind the three Potomac primaries overnight have been the most spectacular so far with Obama eating into almost all the demographic segments that looked very solid for Hillary only a week ago.

Thus according to the CNN exit polls in Maryland Obama was picking up 59% of the female vote and led in almost every other segment. The latest three elections were proper primaries – not caucuses which had been the most fertile territory for the Obama campaign until now.

Although the next primary is in Wisconsin the focus of the Clinton campaign is now Texas which votes on March 4th. She is betting everything on being able to halt the Obama bandwagon in that state. The problem is that Obama could arrive there having won every electoral test since Super Tuesday one month earlier.

Hillary, though, looked very good in her election night speech from El Paso in Texas. It was probably the best performance of her campaign so far and you have to admire her amazing resilience. She’s not yet finished – but time is running out.

    A massive problem for the Clinton campaign is that they had expected to have locked in the nomination by now and have simply not done the advance work in the post Super Tuesday states. There’s also a fund-raising issue which means that they will find it hard matching Obama’s huge spend.

In the betting Obama has now tightened further to 0.35/1.

Mike Smithson






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