Do ICM’s Mayoral numbers tell us anything?
February 26th, 2008
Why don’t Ken’s voters back him on the congestion charge?
By far and away the biggest political betting event in the UK this year is the London Mayoral election on May 1st. Five million people will be able to vote and the outcome will set the scene for the coming general election.
But as we’ve noted before - there has been almost no polling data on which to make predictions. We’ve had just one survey in 2008 and only 240 people expressed an opinion.
But details of another survey have just come out. It’s a private poll from ICM that was taken in January and seeks to measure response to what has become Ken Livingstone flag-policy, the London Congestion Charge and the plans to increase the daily fee to £25 for the most gas-guzzling cars. This might be clutching at straws but in a poll starved environment any data might be useful.
What could be significant is that ICM found that a majority of 2004 Livingstone voters were opposed to what has become his signature policy. If his own supporters won’t back him on this what does it say for his chances in May?
The Livingstone voters of 2004 think, by 55% to 38%, that the basic congestion charge of £8 is unfair. On the proposed £25 daily charge for gas-guzzlers 65% of Ken’s supporters four years ago thought the level was too high, 31% thought it “about right” and 2% said it was “too low”.
Yet when it comes to having to pay the charge 62% of the Ken supporters said they had never paid it, presumably because they do not take cars into central London, against just 1% who said they paid it every day.
It will be recalled that the mayor’s own congestion charge poll has become something of an issue. A week last Friday we reported on the decision of the British Polling Council to launch a formal inquiry into the refusal of Ipsos-MORI to make available the detailed data of a survey they had carried out on the issue. That is being withheld in apparent breach of the BPC’s transparency rules because the client, TfL won’t let it be published.
In contrast ICM’s full polling data was made available the day after the firm’s client, Porshe, had released some of the findings.
In the betting Ken continues to be the odds on favourite but Boris’s prices has tightened. I think this race is going to be very close and Johnson remains the value bet.
Mike Smithson
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I didn’t vote for Ken before because I thought that the Congestion Charge would not work, and would have bad side-effects. But it now appears to me to be working much better than I expected. It is because of this issue, more than anything else, that I am now seriously considering voting for Ken for the first time. The second most important reason is that Boris is not up to the job and doesn’t have proper policies.
test
Well, to tax and be popular is given to no-one. I suspect this poll simply reflects the view of the 60% of Londoners who drive that they should be able to drive where they like. If you took a poll on parking restrictions I expect you’d find they were even less popular…
In terms of the election, these results tell us nothing. How many people are going to vote against Ken because of the £25 charge? And Boris ain’t gonna scrap the basic Charge, either - though, in his shoes, I’d be tempted to offer to run a lottery with Charge exemptions (and Council Tax exemptions come to that) instead of cash prizes.
A little over 2 months to go, and despite predictions from a number on here, Boris’ campaign is still on track and has not disintegrated into a gaffe-prone farce.
The repeated problems and suggestions of impropriety have been with the Livngtone campaign.
I’d say the main thing propping up Ken’s betting position as favourite is the lack of polling data to suggest otherwise. Once there is a reputable poll showing Boris in a lead, it will accelerate and Londoners will move away from Ken quite quickly.
Off Topic, but well anyway I forgot to mention it earlier (from five threads ago):
I love the “most Americans are disenchanted” as we hear of hugely increased turnouts for primaries and hear concerns that Obamamania is going too far. He is the Screaming Lord Sutch of Presidental elections nothing more (will now go and hide from JohnLoony’s response)
What, you mean you think he’s going to be a candidate for President 39 times and then kill himself?
At this moment I can’t see why Boris isn’t favourite? Everything points to his odds being exceptional value. If it wasn’t that I believe Ken to be an outstanding tactician and Boris to be a hopeless oaf who will blow it then that’s the way I’d be betting.
In Central London it’s difficult to find anyone who supports Boris and a straw poll of taxi drivers will find it’s almost unanimous for Ken. But most of the five million voters don’t have anything to do with Central London as can be seen from the congestion charge poll.
Who in Central London doesn’t want 4×4’s to taxed out of existence if they come into the centre? Absolutely no one. Yet the poll indicates otherwise which just shows how many voters have nothing to do with Central London
I think a lot of the negative views about the Congestion Charge are based as much on where he might expand it in the future, rather than it’s existence at present. In addition the gradual feeling that it’s moving beyond its original purpose and turning into a simple money-making scheme. The usual reason why people are very suspicious of ‘environmental taxes’ (of which this wasn’t originally - hence its name), however much they might support them in principle.
I dont have the exact figures but it is often reported that the congestion charge absorbs most of the revenue in costs so it is a very ineffective tax from a revenue perspective . Congestion is not mush different now to what it was before - arguably it would be much worse without the charge but that is difficult to to prove . The westward extension may raise more tax but will it do anything for congestion - those that live within it will be much more likely to drive around within the zone
There must be a technological way to reduce the operating costs of the charge
6 - so all those taxi drivers who hand out “Back Boris” receipts are Ken fans?
6. I pay my own taxi fares so don’t get receipts but do use taxis all the time in Central London and can honestly say I have yet to speak to a single one who says they are voting for Boris.
I’ve posted this before but one said to me “Who’d vote for Boris? He’s a knob!” I was genuinely curious to know whether that was ‘Knob’ or ‘nob’ but didn’t ask.
Mike - please would you clarify exactly whose responsibility it is to publish the December polling data - is it TfL or Ipsos MORI?
If the former, then the BPC “tranparency rules” clearly don’t amount to a row of beans, if the latter then why doesn’t the pollster simply publish the data as it is required to?
Perhaps you should think long and hard before inviting Bob Worcester onto PB.com again.
Roger has often mentioned that he lives in Covent Garden. In that case his neighbours voted for Norris in 2004 on both the first and second ballots.
As for taxi drivers, they are up in arms about the Livingstone proposal to dilute “the knowledge” in the cause of political correctness - which is why so many distribute Back Boris receipts.
The survey was commissined by Porsche and IMO the phrasing and sequencing of the questions is somewhat biased. You’re first prompted to think about whether you pay it yourself, and how often. Then you’re told there’s a big increase planned for some cars, with no exemption for residents. You’re asked if that’s fair. Then you’re asked if the intentions behind it are noble or cynical. Given the default position of most voters that paying tax is unpleasant and politicians are untrustworthy, you get the sort of answers that Porsche wanted. Questions likely to elicit a favourable response, such as “Do you think the Congestion Charge helps limit congestion?” or “The Congestion Charge is partly used to subsidise bus services. Do you agree or disagree with this use of the charge?” do not figure in the survey.
Surely the poll indicates that Ken is the kind of politician who garners support even when people disagree with his policies? I’d probably attach the same label to Blair, a sense of trusting and better the devil you know, even when by 2005, few were really behind his policies and vision. And certainly to Obama.
Oh God, the Return of Roger’s Patented Taxi Driver Based Polling System.
Why don’t you go the whole hog, Roger, and ask your butler what he thinks? I might quiz my ostler this evening, or the nice little chap from Guyana who irons my cummerbunds.
Or I could ask the girls at Suzie Wong’s just before they do my happy finish. I pay all my own barfines and I can honestly say I haven’t met a teenage Cambodian go-go dancer who thinks Ken’s support for Hugo Chavez is a vote loser.
Boris is a poor politician. He will be easy to corner. He has little ability to deflect questions and cititisms. He hasn’t the key knack of answering the question he wished had been asked, rather than the one that was asked. This skill has been mastered by Ken (and TB), who could get away with lying even when everyone knew they weren’t telling the truth. Boris hasn’t this essential ’slipperiness’.
But would he make a poorer mayor than Ken? Isn’t it possible to be a better mayor than politician? There’ll be fewer funding ‘irregularities’ under Boris. And it can’t be healthy to have the same mayor for 12 years.
10. Have any of them said ‘I ‘ad that kn*b Roger in the back of my cab once’, yet?
16. Seems like the perfect opportunity for Brian Paddick.
Speaking of cabbies, there’s a great Matt cartoon in The Daily Telegraph this morning:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/core/Matt/pMattTemplate.jhtml;jsessionid=FTBNWBNESR2ADQFIQMGSFGGAVCBQWIV0
12. Peter Golds. Not Covent Garden but Soho! It might be next door but I wouldn’t live in that Norris voting shi-shi place for all the cheese in Neil’s Yard Dairy!
SeanT. I bow to your superior knowledge of Cambodian go-go dancers and if your last night’s paid for companion is hot for Boris what can I say?
As a regular user of taxis, I can confirm that 4 out of 5 London cabbies salute the gains of the Bolivarian revolution in Venezuela and defend Lee Jasper from racist smears.
The poll isn’t very helpful. Yes, the congestion charge is unfair. But as I never pay it, I support it.
Why no polling data on the London election. Even if there is no independently-commissioned poll, I would still expect KL and BJ to have private information. Why hasn’t anything been publicised or leaked? If one or other was way ahead I would expect it to be trumpeted abroad. Nothing! Silence! Does this mean it really is tight and neither side wants to give anything away.
OT (I missed the boat with the last thread): does anybody have a theory as to why the recent polls have been so divergent?
Much as I’d like to believe a 11 point Tory lead it’s just not realistic. It’s probably 5-7%, I reckon.
20. Since you first exclusive ‘Roger Cab Poll’ I have also been keen to test the anti-Boris feeling that Roger seems to find in every taxi. I use taxis a lot as well mostly between London Bridge and Kensington.
I must be very unlucky as I have not found any of Roger’s Ken supporting Cabbies. Quite a few ‘couldn’t give a ***K’ several ‘they are all as bad as each other’ and I am currently the proud owner of 3 ‘Back Boris’ receipts in that lovely shade of blue.
What does that tell us..b*gger all of course, so I suggest we leave the cabbies out of it..
On yesterday’s ComRes thread I was surprised that nobody mentioned how well the Tories did among Scottish respondents. It is the first poll in absolutely ages (a decade?) to have the Conservatives over 20% (AFAIAA).
ComRes/The Independent
22-24 Feb 2008
Sample size - Scotland = 53 (HEALTH WARNING!!)
1. Lab 31% (-8%)
2. SNP 26% (+8%)
3. Con 21% (+5%)
4. LD 15% (-8%)
oth 9% (note: very high “Others” = Greens?)
While it is “just a bit of fun”, such a UNS would see the following seats change hands (according to Baxter):
Tory gains from LD:
*Argyll and Bute
*Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
… and from Labour:
*Renfrewshire East
*Stirling
*Edinburgh South
*Dumfries and Galloway
Lab re-gain from LD:
*Dunfermline and West Fife
SNP gain from Lab:
*Dundee West
*Ochil and South Perthshire
http://www.comres.co.uk/resources/7/Political%20Polls/Political%20Poll%20Feb%2008.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
A lot of cabbies I know complain about self-important old twits wittering away in the backs of their cabs…and tell me how even saying ‘yeah that’s right mate’ to everything they say still doesn’t shut them up.
24 Several theories were put forward on the last thread for the divergent polls perhaps you should go through the posts and read them .
I have to admit that I am somewhat bemused by Ken Livingstone’s tactics. Both Johnson and Paddick have been building up momentum for ages, Ken’s campaign so far has been half-hearted. Is he trying to peak shortly before the election? It would seem a high-risk strategy if so. There will clearly be a core Livingstone vote, but there is also a certain amount of fatigue with him. I think the longer he leaves it the harder his task becomes. Obviously the campaign proper probably won’t kick off until after Easter but once that happens Johnson and Paddick have been shoring up their support for a while, and will then have even more exposure. If Livinstone is banking on a one month campaign blitz into the election it almost seems Giuliani-esque.
28. Mark you have become the sourest poster on this site, by some way. Do you eat a dozen lemons for breakfast every day?
30. Something to do with the LDs continued poor numbers even after they elect a poor mans Blair as leader ?
30 Prefer grapefruit to lemons .
31. poor man’s Cameron.
Cameron is the poor man’s Blair.
[13] In other words, it’s a “push poll”.
And yes, when we do get a proper poll on the Mayoralty, I expect Boris to be ahead (probably by about 5%) so his 6-4 looks value, if only from a “lay off later” point of view. But of course I know nothing about betting. (Failed my citizenship class in Greed, more than once…)
I don’t think Mark is at all sour. One of the most informative posters around in fact. Post 27 is ’sour’. Bitter and without wit unlike most of the other’s on the subject!
[32] Grapefruit - that’s so Lib Dem: you think it’s going to taste of something, then it does’t really, although there’s nothing to actually dislike.
Start your day the IA way: a tumbler of pineapple juice with the juice of half a freshly squeezed lime added.
More trouble for Grasper.
“A close aide of Ken Livingstone, suspended from his job after allegations of cronyism, failed to declare his chairmanship of a race-equality organisation that received thousands of pounds of taxpayers’ money.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3434502.ece
Mark Senior’s ok once you get past his hatred of Conservatives, which he thinks are still in power.
I thought Mark S. was merely pointing out where a complicated series of interlocking factual arguments could be found, as they were too difficult to summarise.
35. But what do the cabbies think? MS, sour lemon or not?
re 13 & 34. I disagree strongly with Nick here - why does the Labour tribe always rush to defend its rogues? That is what’s wrong with tribal politics when even decent people like Nick feel they have to support the Kens of this world.
It will be good to see the Ken poll on the same subject that he is keeping from us and is putting Ipsos-MORI into an impossible position
I’ll do a thread on a poll on another matter that Ken instigated where the leading question element is appalling and we can just compare.
40. Every single one of the 3,000 cabbies I used last week said they were 100% behind Mark Senior…the accusations of sourness are nothing more than a witch-hunt by the Evening Standard and as such a complete fabrication..In fact anyone who disagrees with MS must be a racist…
42. Never mind racism, what about the implied slur against lemons?
[43] And has Lee Jasper persuaded Ken to fund you, CRN?
Hmmm keen to have the taxi drivers vote are we, a group renowned for their liberal and progressive views.
I supported the idea of a London Mayor, but think the office should be revised: 1. Two terms maximum, 2. If an MP is selected to run, then must immediately resign as an MP.
As someone who worked at Marble Arch for 23 years, you couldn’t tax London car drivers enough to satisfy me.
Good Morning.
Latest SUSA Poll for Texas -
Clinton 45% - Obama 49%.
Note the larger than average state wide sample (over 1700)compared to some other state polls. Also Clinton lead among Hispanics dropping very sharply.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c6190368-049d-43a8-b5e7-d28f3a3eba96
…………………….
This will be the last post from ‘Peter Jacques’. All five contributors that were ‘Peter’ have enjoyed their time on Political Betting and wish it well in the future.
We are also pleased to advise that as we five leave another very old stager will return!
SIGNED.
Peter, Jacque, Curtis, Mike and Jeremy.
45 - I agree with point 1 but not 2. In the US you are allowed to run for a higher office without sacrificing your current one, example Senators Clinton, Obama and McCain.
26.I didn’t mention these polling figures on the previous thread, but I did point out Labour’s steadily declining support in area’s outside their rock solid heartlands which becomes further skewered by the 3 party alternative for voters. With a first time SNP administration in Holyrood enjoying an extended honeymoon, and 4 party politics in play, I think we will see some really surprising results for all parties come the GE.
The Libdems are not benefiting from a declining Labour vote as they might have expected too just 2/3years ago. Constituencies like Aberdeen South will be worth watching on election night, anything could happen.
[46] If that teaser refers to who I think it does, we’ll be breaking out the champers…
Peter, Jaques, Curtis, mike and Jeremy. I often wondered how come this site was so overwhelmingly Tory. I hope your example will bring others out of the closet!
46. It took five people to co-write the Peter Jacques posts??
O/T - Michael Martin speeds up his expenses review.
46.I thought that some of Peter Jacques posts reminded me of a “very old stager”, formerly of the parish of PB.com.
re 46. The only one really really old stager is JackW. We hope and wait in anticipation.
Do we assumes that ‘Jacque’ is Jack W? And what precisely is the purpose of these elaborate subterfuges?
34: Well, pooh, Mike, why do you assume I’m responding only from tribal loyalty? I think Ken’s a good Mayor and like him personally, and I thought that and said so when we were unwisely running a candidate against him, though I dutifully gave Dobbo my first preference before moving on to Ken to defeat Norris.
Yes, I think it’s a mild form of push poll, and that will remain the case if you can produce a stronger push poll that he’s done. I’m not blaming Porsche or ICM - if I were Porsche’s PR man I’d commission exaclty this sort of poll, and it’s not bad enough that ICM should have had to turn it down. But it’s a reason ti interpet it with caution.
Well, pooh, Mike, why do you assume I’m responding only from tribal loyalty?
Mike’s assumption seems pretty fair based on your long-term posting record here - which has been overwhelmingly partisan and spin-led. And given the subject under discussion, why would anyone expect anything objective from a poster such as yourself?
56. Ahh.. Just like Brown thinks Martin is a ‘very, very good speaker’..I see exactly where you and he are coming from..
These two articles highlight the tribal politics on display in the Labour party just now, not to say it can’t be as negatively displayed by some in the other main parties mind, all the main parties have some previous form in this area.
Tom Bower in the Daily Mail on As usual the Left is utterly wrong. This isn’t about class, but simple corruption
Jon Craig - sky news Grim-Faced Speaker Returns To Work
56 It looks like London Labour MPs are less keen on him. Only 3 out of 44 were willing to sign the letter to the Guardian supporting his bid to be Mayor.
29 I think Ken’s real problem is that in much of London, Labour now has few activists, and if, as I suspect, London’s Labour MPs are unenthusiastic about Livingstone, then he doesn’t have much of an electoral machine.
A lot of squabbles on here this morning
Mike, if the Tory lead increases further or Ken introduces a blanket ban on bicycle, perhaps you should consider ‘comment moderation’ before you post that thread.
You know it makes sense.
60 Do activists realy matter in something like a London-wide personality driven election campaign? It will be won by an Air War, not a Ground War.
62 - On either measure Ken has problems though.
re 56. It’s not just Labour - all parties are the same including mine -the Lib Dems. I left active party politics in 1999 when my group on the local council sought to force me into voting for something that was morally wrong - a decision that led to a man losing his life. The sad thing is that they could not see it. Well pooh to them.
What really gets me at the moment is the way when politicians are under attack they do not answer the issues - but shout “smear”. Attack the messenger - don’t deal with the accusation. That is what is bringing politics into disrepute and it needs brave men and women to speak out.
I see 12-and-a-half-year old Nick Clegg, a sixer from the Lib Dem (Westminster) scout troop, is getting himself into all sorts of trouble over Europe.
Apparently Clegg wanted to get his Felching Badge from Gordon Brown Owl.
Fellow sixer Andrew Duff, first scout troop Lib Dems (Strasbourg) already has his Treachery Neckerchief, so he was asked to help out young Clegg.
Between them it was decided the Westminster troop should betray their basic principles, and renege on a fundamental promise to the British people. Thus making the Lib Dems a laughing stock and an object of contempt, for no apparent reason. Akela Ming Campbell thought this was a jolly good idea.
But all is not well and the cubs are rebelling.
http://tinyurl.com/2fz52t
‘Mike’s assumption seems pretty fair based on your long-term posting record here - which has been overwhelmingly partisan and spin-led’
Unlike your’s Harry which has been a model of impartiality.
66. I never claimed to be impartial Roger. Nor have I ever spluttered with faux outrage if someone suggested I wasn’t.
65 - Another masterclass from a great author in the art of allegory. Read and learn, kids. Maybe not one that will make it in the final edit but ta anyway.
65. I’m completely confused by the lib dem stance on europe, it seems to have created endless trouble for them, and in exchange all they’ve got is a dent in their credibility and given the tories extra ammo.
TODAY’S OBAMAMANIA ENDORSEMENTS;
Cincinnati (OHIO!) Mayor Mark Mallory endorses Obama
Sen. Chris Dodd (CT) will also endorse today (in Ohio)
Columbus Ohio Mayor Don Culliver will endorse Obama today.
Ohio Pastors endorse Obama http://tinyurl.com/324bg3
Not only but also;
Now EVERY daily newspaper in Texas
Louis Farrakhan!
We’re still waiting for “Richard” and “Matthew JCG Partridge” but I don’t think we’re due those any time soon..
64 & 65 With parliament relegated to a provincial talking shop with no responsibility for laws imposed from europe all that is left is posturing, spin and tribal politicking of the worst kind.
65. A fascinating case of the self-preservation instincts of individual MPs colliding with the overriding political purpose of their party, i.e. subservience to the wishes of the EU. Very messy.
68. Can someone please, please tell me what is the point in Nick Clegg? His only significant move so far has been to betray everything the Lib Dems stand for, and break his solemn referendum promise, all to prop up a governing party which the people increasingly detest.
And his return for this? Nothing. Nada. Zip. Not even a pat on the head from El Gordo.
Clegg is a joke. No he’s not even a joke. He is less significant than that.
He barely registers. He is a quantum phenomenon. He is Schrodingers leader. No one knows if he actually exists or not. He is neither wave nor particle. He is a neutrino. No, he isn’t even a neutrino. He is a twat.
re 56 well you’ve answered that in you own post saying that you voted for (in your view) the second best candidate - which can only have been out of tribal loyalty.
SeanT: I think you know a lot more about Cambodian go-go girls than about Nick Clegg. A load of abuse offers not one jot of analysis.
I would go back and ask the Mama-San for a new twat…
69. The Lib Dems are preparing to fight the next general election. The Tories are preparing to re-run 2005. What exactly are the Tories proposing to do once Her Gracious Majesty Queen Elizabeth II has given royal assent to the Bill on the Lisbon Treaty?
10. Sorry, beg to differ. I, possibly, don’t use taxis as frequently as your good self but the ones I’ve spoken to think ‘Ken’ is a corrupt, cronying, communist that should be shipped out to N. Korea as soon as possible although at the moment they still tend to think BJ is a bit of a joke but improving.
Who’d believe taxi drivers, anyway? “Had Mao Tse Tung in the back, last week, can’t tell you what he told me!” (nudge, nudge, wink, wink)
73 Well, he can argue that as his party was rejected at the last election, his manifesto commitment no longer applies.
But, leaving that aside, his stance on the EU is just bad politics. His party has a golden opportunity to give Labour a kicking, and adhere to its proclaimed democratic principles, and they’ve blown it. Their stance gains them no support, may damage their chances in some marginals, and (most importantly) lets their long term rival, Labour, off the hook.
76 agree and its reasonable politics i suppose. but as everyone knows the libdems would never grant a referendum if in power, nor abide by a negative result its just empty posturing.
The main problem for Livingstone is that the congestion charge hasn’t worked,traffic in London is the slowest of any European city,traffic speeds in the congestion area itself have only improved by 2 seconds per kilometer and over 50% of the revenue generated by the charge is pocketed by the private company administering the charge.That must be one of the worst ever deals negotitaed by an elected authority.
Livingstone of course knows this and now only talks about improving air quality as oppossed to reducing congestion.
78. But the Lib Dems - most of them at least - don’t see Labour as their long-term rival. They rather see them as a sometimes aberrant partner in the centre-left struggle against Toryism.
Their joint project has been neatly laid out by the charming Mr.Duff - the ‘defeat’ of ‘the English’ - which means the transformation of the UK into a social democratic province in the European ‘non-imperial’ empire.
Some MPs are, of course, more worried about holding their seats next time.
78. “… his party was rejected at the last election, his manifesto commitment no longer applies.”
That is true. Also, the content of manifestos is in the gift of the party leader. The Lib Dems are two leaders further on now.
It would be like asking Gordon Brown to stick to the policies of John Smith, or David Cameron to keep to those of IDS.
82, no it wouldn’t. Leaving aside the “do election pledges count if you don’t win?” question, Smith was about 14 years ago. Kennedy was 3 years ago.
82 - Although one could argue that Brown is implementing the policies of Michael Foot!
78
Certainly the Lib Dem MP’s in the south don’t seem to agree with Clegg,Heath has already jumped ship and is telling his constituents how much he supports a referendum.
79 That to me is what is unreal about Nick Clegg’s demand. I just can’t see Lib Dem MPs voting to repeal the European Communities Act 1972, regardless of the outcome of any referendum.
81 I agree with your first paragraph. It is a striking contrast to the attitude Labour took after 1918.
82 But it’s still bad politics, a lose lose situation for the Lib Dems.
Row over the Speaker’s Expenses
Mr Nicholas O’Brien in his letter to the Editor in today’s Daily Telegraph writes:
Sir - If Michael Martin, the Speaker of the House of Commons, can claim £75,000 over the past six years in “additional costs allowances” for his home in Glasgow, despite not having a mortgage, and give air miles accumulated on public duty to his family, and Mrs Martin can spend £4,000 on private taxi fares, and all this is “within the rules” (report, February 25), might I ask what all the fuss is about?
It might seem both immoral and unfair and there could be grounds for a review and tightening-up process, but it hardly warrants the furore. If it is not allowed, however, it is misappropriation of public funds and may even be a criminal offence warranting prosecution. Then the word theft could possibly be used.
84. NR?
88 - Clearly, but my tongue was firmly in my cheek!
75. Clegg’s position doesn’t need analysis. He promised a referendum. He should stick to that promise. A six year old could understand the morality of this.
Instead we get some absurd and risible joke of an idea, an in-or-out referendum, a promise that every Lib Dem knows would never be fulfilled, if they ever reached power (which they won’t) just in case they lost the vote.
Can anyone here really imagine the Bruxellois lickspittles of the Lib Dems actually holding an in-or-out referendum if they were in power? It would cause chaos in the markets, it would create huge instability.
And what would they do if they got a No vote, an Out vote? The Lib Dems would withdraw us from Europe? That would be their big thing? Yeah? Really? Prime Minister Nick Clegg (don’t laugh) would stand up in the Commons and announce the UK’s exit from the EU?
Of course not. You would never do that, so the referendum is a farce. Clegg’s idea is a gimmick, a stunt, a hoax, a lie.
And the Lib Dems wonder why people regard them with such withering disdain. This is sixth form politics. Its rubbish. The Lib Dems will never ever get into power precisely because of crap like this. You act like a bunch of students. You are a bunch of ageing students. You are laughable.
And it gets worse. Your most senior representative in Europe, Andrew Duff, has called for the “defeat of the English”. He has also signed a document saying the Lisbon Treaty is substantially the same as the Constitution. This is precisely the opposite of what Clegg says.
So what is it? What do you believe? Stop lying. Grow up. You are a pathetic bunch of gluesniffers hiding in the bikesheds of political life.
And what’s even more absurd, as Sean Fear says, is that this Lib Dem positioning is not only unprincipled and sad, it is crap politics even on a basic low level - at which you are meant to be quite adept.
The Referendum vote was a chance for you Lib Dems to prove you are different from Labour, to show some principle, to gain some media attention, to act like men, and to do the Right Thing.
Instead you have let Labour trample all over your toys and steal your water pistol. And you smile and pretend it is worth it.
Did read that the use of Air Miles other than on parliamentary business was specifically against the HoC rules. Is that correct?
The factor which I think could deliver the Mayoral contest to Boris is turnout.
If he gets momentum going in the outer boroughs, and the Tory ground organisation is motivated, I can see there being an increase in turnout there with a drop in the inner boroughs.
This factor could also affect the split in second preference votes. Lib Dem second preferences split differently in different areas, and a higher turnout in the outer boroughs could see Boris picking up more of Paddick’s second votes.
In a tight contest this could be the decisive factor.
73 The point of Nick Clegg is that he is not Ming Campbell.
92 - Good point well made.
90. I’d kill to hear that speech coming from the opposition front bench in the House of Commons.
90 What terms does Nick Clegg propose? Would we join the EEA, on leaving, or not? Would we apply to join NAFTA on leaving, or not? Would we still make budget contributions to the EU after leaving, or not? After leaving, in what areas of policy would we still co-operate with EU member states? etc. I think we are entitled to see the detailed package before deciding whether or not we wish to pull out?
91, it is advised that they don’t pass Air Miles gained on official business to family members, but it does not break the rules, I think.
96 - Yes but that is to assume that it is a proper policy rather than a complete ruse.
I saw Clegg on TV yesterday. Where is the supposed slick media-savvy communicator we were promised? He stuttered his way through a dull little speech, entirely without eloquence or passion.
He seems to have been selected purely on the basis that floppy hair and boyish looks automatically mean a person is media-friendly. This looks like a terrible error.
It is astonishing that Congestion Charging is being supported by the Left, and opposed by the Right.
Surely, the widespread introduction of Congestion Charging will simply price the poor off the roads. If you can afford a 4X4, you can certainly afford 20 pounds a day to drive it around wherever you want.
If I suggested that any other public service for which there is ferocious demand should introduce charging, Ken Livingstone would be the first to complain that it is non-egalitaraian.
Congestion is very egalitarian. Congestion Charging is Not. The victims of Congestion are largely those who cause it, those who are sitting in their cars in traffic jams. Excellent! A crime for which the criminal is the victim!
99.”Where is the supposed slick media-savvy communicator we were promised?”
He lost the Libdem leadership contest.
96. Quite so.
Because the basic Lib Dem position is a lie “this is not the same as the Constitution, therefore we don’t have to abide by our promise”, they are getting into evermore difficulty as they try to disguise the lie. As happens with liars.
Now they are saying their central proposal on Europe is a vote on whether we stay in or not. Right. Yep. So I presume this will be a major condition if they go into coalition with Labour. “We will only support you if you agree to an in-or-out referendum”.
Or will they quietly forget this dramatic proposal once it is politically convenient? For shame. The whole thing would be comical if it weren’t so repellent.
There is a minor tragedy here. The Lib Dems’ USP was, or should be, that they are morally better than the big parties. That they, at least, stick to their promises and tell it like it is.
This is a good position to be in. There is a market for honesty in public life. There is a hunger for candour and truth. What’s more, this works electorally. The Lib Dems told the truth on Iraq and their votes went up - deservedly. Obama is reaping the benefit of this same public hunger.
But the Lib Dems have tossed away their entire reputation for some squalid Eurodeal. They are now blatantly lying to the people on an issue of fundamental importance.
Ergo, there is no longer any reason to vote for them. They are leftwing and they lie. And if you want to elect a bunch of lefty liars you might as well cut out the middleman, and go straight to Labour.
The BBC is now reporting that the maximum that MPs can claim back without a receipt is to be reduced to £50. I can’t claim anyhting back (in the NHS) without a receipt - even for 1 stamp. Why should MPs be any different?
[100] It’s obviously escaped your notice that a lot of people ride buses in central London.
103, quite. Further, peers have to provide receipts for lesser items too.
re 92. PTB I think that’s right and remember that on May 1st there won’t be Euro elections taking place at the same time - a factor that boosted turnout in 2004.
The big political drive ahead of June 10th 2004 was UKIP for the Euros which helped boost its position in other elections held on that day. It ended up in fourth place in the mayoral with 115k votes.
My guess is that the party will not score anything like that total and that will help Boris.
At the time, of course, UKIP was very well funded by Paul Sykes and had hired Dick Morris as a key strategist. Now UKIP has nothing like the resources.
103. Why indeed? And when will the intense scrutiny of expenses be extended to those enjoyed by Euro-MPs?
104 It’s obviously escaped your notice that bus lanes provide an easy solution.
The lib dem policy of wanting an ‘in or out’ referendum has left them looking very clumsy whenever the subject comes up. Tories say they want a referendum on the treaty, labour say they don’t, lib dems come out with a long and rambling answer that seems to have very little to do with the question asked. All Clegg seems to have done with this policy is make the lib dems look confused, and increasingly like they’re supporting labour.
SeanT I almost wrote what is the point of all this abuse- you just go over the same old ground and end up sounding like some kind of grumpy teenager. However, lets just go over this one last time.
Lib Dems are pro-European. We think that the EU is a net benefit to the UK. You don’t. We think that the argument over the amendment to the treaties, which is what the reform treaty is, rather than a replacement of the treaties which is what the constitutional treaty was, is not particularly the point. The point is do we stay in the EU or leave it. That is the debate thaat people in the UK talk about- they do not debate the niceties of Euro-paperwork around the kitchen table.
However the pressure of the antis in the Uk has led to the pathetic display of of Brown turning up at the side door to sign the Lisbon treaty. The fact is that 26 countries have signed and will ratify the Lisbon treaty- so if you don’t want the trety then you don’t want to be in the EU. It is just that simple.
I think we should vote on whether we are in- and damn straight I will campaign tooth and nail to get a yes vote, but if the vote is no, then we will have to accept this, but I will believe that it is aa mistake and will say so. Honestly I am just sick and tired of the negative, crude bullcr*p that is thrown around in the Europe debate. We can not go on in the semi detached arrogant and isolated way any more.
So to put it in your own way. Anti Europeanism don’t need analysis- it needs confrontation in the SeanT stylee: Anti Europeans are the enemy of this country- they believe in some mythical world where we are all Sir Francis Drake- devil may care privateers who can safely ignore the those funny foreigners. Well we can’t. So wrap yourself up in the Union Jack and chant “we’re number one” repeatedly- but you are just on a heroin trip that will rapidly become green and scaly.
The gaylording ponceyboots TM. would probably play the same game as Brown- “the reluctant European” but will still coyly play footsie. There is no choice- but if you want one, do the vote on the whole schmeer- in or out, no ifs no buts. At least the Lib dems tell you where we staand instead of the contempible stripetease of Broon and the dishonest smarm of Cameron. The point of Nick Clegg is that at least he is not either of those ***%&& s.
106 - I had completely forgotten that the Euro’s were on the same day last time round.
It may have changed but the civil service rule was that air miles earned on business travel paid for by the tax payer must be used on business travel to reduce the bill to that same taxpayer.
110. Nice to see the pro-European cause presented in such a calm, compelling, and well-argued manner, without the usual ranting, blustering or hysterical scaremongering.
:)
Martin expenses - Ch4 FactCheck concludes that airmiles breaches the ‘advice’ given - but not the rules - but Martin may be in more trouble over Taxis and his Housing:
http://tinyurl.com/2ok5nt
To me the HUGE disconnect is between Parliament and the people - who like many have posted on this board have to account for every penny of claimed expenses - and the self-congratulatory ‘Hear Hear’s yesterday as Speaker Martin started will have done even more damage. They just don’t get it.
91,97 and 112. So if Martin did not heed the advice re Air Miles, did he then break the spirit of the rules of which he is the supposed guardian.?
106
Mike, what is the reason why we don’t have Euro elections this year,have they changed the cycle from 4 to 5 years?
99 But you are a Conservative supporter and apologist hence your opinion of Nick Clegg will never be unbiased and objective similarly my opinion of Cameron will not be without bias . It was interesting the other day with auschwitzgate how many of the Conservative supporters on here rushed to post in his defence and only 1 or 2 of you would accept that a mistake had been made by CCHQ or Cameron or both .
[113] I was provoked
110 - Yes because the whole Europe debate boils down to in as it is now or out and on our own. I don’t think so, we need a grown up debate not trench warfare with ever increasing barrages of vituperation.
116 - The Euros have always been on a five year cycle - 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 …
116 - Euros are always on a 5 year cycle.
110 But if it’s a policy, then it’s one that falls apart on close examination. Without knowing what terms Nick Clegg proposes, how can we vote on something this vague?
However, it’s not really a policy at all. It’s more like a student union debating ploy. The Lib Dems never expect to be in a position to deliver this, and assuming they did, it would be more a form of blackmail, along the lines of “sign up to a single European state or get out.”
117. I am indeed Mark, but you don’t have to share my views to recognise stuttering and limp delivery when you see it.
I loathed Blair but his qualities as a media performer and communicator couldn’t be questioned.
[108] It’s obviously escaped your notice that lots of roads in Central London don’t have four lanes.
Enough of this banter - I’ve got to go out…
I see that I have been mentioned regarding Roger’s address which has been sometimes described here as Covent Garden.
Well, looking back Roger mentioned that he lives near or in Old Compton Street.
In the 2004 Mayoral (both ballots), GLA constituency, GLA list and European elections along with all recent local elections his neighbours voted Conservative, including Norris leading Livingstone on both ballots.
116 European elections have always been on a 5 year cycle - since 1979, I think. However, I cannot believe that they increased turnout at the last London election which was held on the same day.
(Although I agree with the point about the impact of UKIP Mike made at 106.)
114 I certainly agree with this.
There is a HUGE opportunity for one of the political parties here — whoever is really seen to be tackling the terrible culture of sleaze that has mushroomed in our political culture will — Obama-like — reap huge electorral dividends.
I have given up on Labour — they seem to genuinely beleive that only other people are sleazy. When one of their kind, Martin, is criticised, we hear that is not sleaze but “nasty little stories” (to quote Margaret Beckett).
Syphoning of huge sums of taxpayers money for mortgages that don’t exist is just completely unacceptable. Throw Martin and the Wintertons out.
110. Nul points. Complete failure to address central issues.
1. you promised a vote on the Constitution
2. you have reneged on this
3. you pretend that this isn’t the same document but your leader in the EU says it is
4. you ignore this
5. you have now come up with the most embarrassing gimmick in recent British politics, an in-or-out referendum which will never be held even if you reach power
6. you gloss over this by saying we would “accept the result”. Yes, indeedy doody. I can see Nick Clegg on his first visit to Angela Merkel as prime minister. Sorry Angela but we’re leaving the EU. We promised a vote five years ago and, whooops, the people voted No. We’re not sure what to do now because the whole thing was a stunt. We might join the Organisation of African Unity.
Indeed, the measure of how little the Lib dems expect of themselves is that they have come up with this derisory non-policy, a policy which could not be enacted if they were in power. As they well know.
That’s how much the Lib Dems think of themselves. They never expect to be in power. You might as well promise a flat tax rate of 2%.
For more serious readers (i.e. non Lib Dems), if anyone remembers my riff about Calcutta: its now been published on the firstpost:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk
114
Yes,couldn’t agree with you more ,the hear hear stuff yesterday for the Speaker was a clear two fingers to the rest of us,we control this and if we want to carry on ripping off the taxpayer we’ll do it.
What’s perhaps even more pathetic is the defence of Martin by his friends; that it’s just a case of snobbery and nothing to do with misuse of taxpayers money.Reminds me of the first time accusations were made against Lee Jaspar we immediately get the race card played.
re 114 I’m amazed that no-one seems to have made the connection - and instead seem to indicate surprise - that Mr Martin is well-liked by MPs precisely because MPs obviously would warm to a man who is likely to let them keep as much of their snouts in the trough for as long as possible. Voting for a hard man as replacement would be like turkeys voting for Christmas.
Innocent Abroad, obviously you are partly right that sometimes buses get stuck in traffic. But, equally in many cases, there are bus lanes.
My point is simply how curious it is that the Left are advocating charging for what is a public service that has hitheto been free (use of the roads). And that this is clearly non-egalitarian.
If you want an egalitarian policy, why not insist that everyone driving a public vehicle into central London has to travel at 10 mph or less? That makes driving a real pain, and would dissuade a lot of people from using their cars.
Ian Davidson MP has written to Mr Clegg suggesting that there be a dual referendum with a question on the treaty and a question on in or out. Will be intriguing to see the response.
110 Cicero -Thanks completely agree . Sean and his ilk sound as if they want to be in a club but only follow some of the rules (rules which they had a share in making).
Clegg is quite right offer the people the chance to leave if they want to and see what apickle we would be in then.
The collapse of Sterling against the Euro despite our high interest rates (another cost) is going to further damage our economy . We should be in the Euro!
128) SeanT - you need to get them to correct the bit about where you realise what the cost of your Chilean shiraz could pay for - they missed it off, so it makes you sound like a bit of a t0sser - eg seeing all that poverty and suffering and then tucking into your nice din dins as the conclusion…
117.I thought that the Libdems chose the wrong leader for the battles ahead at the next GE, nothing I have seen since Nick Clegg’s election has altered my opinion.
But hey, we have the almost invisible Nicol Stephen running the show up here for the Libdems, he does not cut it up against Alex Salmond. I think that Chris Huhne was capable of stirring things up and making sure that the Libdems views remained very relevant in any debate, thus giving Brown AND Cameron a rougher ride in any election campaign.
115. Martin has certainly not followed his own advice to MPs that:
“their use of allowances is above reproach”…..and his alleged comment on Conway ‘Hasn’t Derek suffered enough?’ - when in the ‘real world’ Conway’s expenses claims would have led to summary dismissal and possible loss of pension - beggars belief……..
130. - MPs are not the only ones with votes…….
33.’The collapse of Sterling against the Euro despite our high interest rates (another cost) is going to further damage our economy . We should be in the Euro!’
Not convinced, the fall in sterling may help us rebalance our economy by encouraging exports and making imports more expensive. The test will be how the Irish and Spanish economies, whose economies have followed a broadly similar path than ours with a house price boom and bust cope within th esingle currency. My guess is that they will find in far harder to rebalance their economy, depsite the fact that Spain especially is in far far better poistion in regard to government finances, even if its trade deficit is markedly worse.
130
Its just like the head of the committeee for standards in public life and the parliamentary Ombudsman as soon as they start being effective they get fired.
I wonder when we will get the next round of hand wringing MP’s astounded at how low turnout is at elections.
31 I thought the average speed of traffic in central London is below 10 mph .
133 What we dislike is that the club rules are constantly changing, and that the club members are constantly having their powers transferred to the club committee.
“Clegg is quite right offer the people the chance to leave if they want to and see what apickle we would be in then.”
So a Lib Dem government would both pull out, if the people voted for it, and ensure that as much damage as possible was done in doing so?
“We should be in the Euro!”
Because the last time we were in a currency union with EU states, it worked out so well for us.
139 What is your source, please ?
133
The collapse of sterling against the Euro,which planet are you on?
When the Euro was collapsing against the dollar and sterling 6/7 years ago were you also advocating that the Euro should be scrapped?
134. I take yr point but I think you being overly defensive on my behalf. I am sure most readers will see that the juxtaposition of my lovely meal, with all that poverty and suffering, is meant to be ironic.
The fact that it troubles me is also implied by the last entry: Take val1um.
And boy, that day in Calcutta did trouble me. And the rest of the crew I was with. The soundman has had terrible nightmares ever since.
Fraser Nelson suggests Calling Nick Clegg’s bluff
Having woken from my enforced slumbers is that 50/1 still available for that Obama chap ?
Can’t see him lasting the pace, but you never know.
140 - the last time we were in a currency union with EU states was, I believe, the Roman Empire. That seemed to work quite well for quite a while.
Jack W returns.
Hope all is well.
141 If you google speed of traffic central london you will get many sources . One report says the implementation of congestion charges increased the average speed from 8.5 to 11 mph but it has since slipped back to 10 mph .
145 YAY welcome back Jack W , if you ever went away LOL .
146. The Roman Empire didn’t have a common currency.
Salt and Gold. The Roman Soldiers were paid in Salt when out campaigning.
Each new emperor issued a new coin, the amount of gold within would change over time. Most wealth was measured by land and “treasure.”
140/136 There have been a number of occasions in the last 1500 years when there was a common currency throughout at least part of Europe . Charlemagne’s denier was probably the first attempt . The English penny was the standard currency throughout much of Western Europe in the 13/14th century until replaced by gold based standards the first of which was the Gold Florin .
re 145. Welcome back JacquesW - we’ve missed you and your ARSE
Obama and Huckabee gain on Clinton and McCain in Ohio. However, Hillary and McCain still lead by over 7 and 20% respectively.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/26/obama-and-huckabee-gain-in-ohio/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_currency
“Later, during the Roman Empire, there was a division in the authority of minting coins of particular metals. While numerous local authorities were allowed to mint bronze coins, no local authority was authorized to strike silver coins. On the authority to mint coins Dio Cassius writes, “None of the cities should be allowed to have its own separate coinage or a system of weights and measures; they should all be required to use ours.” Only Rome itself struck precious metal coinage, and the mint was centralized in the city of Rome during the Republic and during the early centuries of the Empire. “
151. The Imperial treasury struck coins, but so did individual cities, and rates of exchange fluctuated between the different coinages. Barter was important too.
6 I don’t live in London, but visit occasionally. Recently walked from the South Bank to Covent Garden, and so much has been refurbished or rebuilt: the Festival Hall, Hungerford Bridge, Charing Cross station, the Royal Opera House. And the wheel is nearby. All so much better than when I lived in London as a student. My spontaneous reaction was to say ‘Ken will walk the election’.
But the point about Central vs Outer London wil be crucial. And Boris appears to be focusing on the latter, apparently well away from reporters from national papers.
SeanT, while I look forward to your postings on Obama-related matters, I’m less convinced by your ramblings on the EU treaty.
It’s true that the Lib Dem position is a fudge, and I’m not entirely convinced that Clegg will be able to pull off his “in or out” trick. But Tories weren’t complaining when the Lib Dems saved the Major government over Maastricht in ‘93: indeed, Ashdown got the same kind of abuse from Labour as Clegg is now getting from the Tory mob. And that act of pro-European support for an unpopular government didn’t do the Lib Dems any harm in ‘97, did it?
Clegg has plenty of time and plenty of issues on which to distance himself from Labour. And I just don’t see how Europe will cost the Lib Dems, in more than a few west country seats, at the next election. Either Cameron makes it an election issue, and risks going down the same road as Hague in 2001, with Labour and the Lib Dems accusing him of having a secret agenda for withdrawal etc; or Cameron bottles Europe up and tries to focus on domestic policy. I think he’ll go for the latter.
156 Indeed and in addition most of the Roman armies had a travelling mint with them to strike coins as they were needed many miles from Rome .
And the common theme to all that currency?
One power ruled them all. The emperor in Rome. Edward the third in the 14th Century (France been a second rate power after Crecy).
The other similarity is that they all colapsed as the sum of the parts started to pull in opposite directions.
The first two months of Nick Clegg indicate that he has not brought an uplift and it will be a long slog.
I still hold to the view that the LDs would have been better going for Huhne in the mini-slump that their support is in.
Clegg would have been the post 2010 leader. Instead Clegg will be the one presiding over a further decline.
Same with Hague, too much too soon.
144. Thats funny. It’ll be interesting to see how Clegg fillibusters his way out of this.
On Topic, I would think, now we’re just two months away from the Mayoral election, that we’ll soon be getting a proper opinion poll, with a 2,000+ sample. Its got to happen soon?
48. ChrisD - “I think we will see some really surprising results for all parties come the GE.”
Totally agree with you! UK GE 2010 is going to be the most unpredictable and exciting UK GE in Scotland for decades!
I almost never speculate about key seats, usually I just refer to the well-known seat-predictor websites, but I agree that Aberdeen South is far, far more marginal than it would appear to be to a casual observer who simply looked at the 2005 results.
Other likely/possible “surprise” areas may include (note: I am not saying they will all change hands, just that they could be bloomin tight):
Falkirk
Kilmarnock
small bits of Glasgow
the entire Highland and Islands (except O & S)
most of Edinburgh and the Lothians
Stirling
159,160 Pretenders to the imperial throne usually struck their own coins as well.
110 Cicero
the Liberal democrat position seems from what you say to be accept the whole thing or reject the whole thing. So despite fine sounding words in manifestos and comments about not agreeing with the scope of EU centralisation or wanting changes to EU when it comes down to it the LD position is accept anything and everything proposed and agreed by rest of EU.
The Lisbon or Reform Treaty does what it says on the label - it changes the status quo. To be sceptical about the advantages claimed for these changes or indeed to disagree that they are necessary in your eyes means rejecting the whole EU edifice. To have concerns about extension of majority voting into new areas, to think that NATO is and will be a better defensive organisation than a EU only arrangement, to disagree with the proposal for yet another EU Presidency or whatever they call the Foreign minister nowadays means that we should leave the EU?
A partnership means you can disagree, and if the rules say certain changes require unanimous agreement than rejecting the changes doesn’t mean rejecting the status quo. Wanting to put forward alternative amendments which change previous treaties doesn’t mean rejecting the whole thing.
There are those who think the UK should leave, there are those for a European federal union. In between the views vary from scepticism about varying areas or changes through grudging acceptance and to support. Majority wouldn’t want to leave but, neither do I submit ,would a majority want the EU to “deepen”, to extend its competencies. That doesn’t make them europhobes.
We were all told in late 80’s that if UK didn’t join ERM and ditch the pound we would be isolated and ignored, growth would suffer, the City shrink and even more apocalyptic visions. If we had a referendum and the UK voters did not agree with the arguments you and Labour put forward what would happen?
Well delaying the constitution didn’t hurt Europe though it might have bothered some eurocrats keen for new areas of work. The discussions would have to start again and Treaty changed enough to be put before the UK people again, dire warnings of the Four Horsemen will yet again fail to happen.
164 Yes indeed as did for example Caurausius and Allectus in this country in the late 3rd century .
Boris will win because poor Ken will be fighting this election with the spectre of Brown on his shoulders- driving the independents and waverers into the Tories in droves. Nick Palmer will be another casualty if Brown stick around to the next election.
Well done Gordon, you took the job without a fair fight, and your party is paying the price.
Indeed and in one year there was 4 emperors. By the time the coin has got form Rome to Say York, the emperor is dead and the new one is cleaning is sword.
145. Great to hear from you Jack W. Hope you are keeping well. Keep taking the tablets!
145- gosh there is life after death, it is a miracle, Jack W has performed a miracle. Welcome back old chap!
Could Hillary perform the same feat?
166/168 It was worse, in (I think) 238 there were six emperors. The period 235-270 was anarchic, and very poorly documented, so one can’t say with confidence how many emperors there were in any given year.
161
My impression of Nick Clegg is unchanged since before his election: The Lib Dems are in Pre 2005 Conservative Party mode and always select teh wrong leader. The Invisible Man?
130, 138
I used to disbelieve people who criticised MPs for being in politics “for what they can get out of it”.
After the revelations of the last 6 months, I’m afraid that view is imo true. And Speaker Martin confirms it. I would love HMRC to apply normal rules on expenses to them all but it will never happen.
And that’s why people distrust politicians - apart from the broken promises.. dentists, mixed wards, ethical foreign policy, whiter than white, premacy of Parliament, Refernedum.. spring to mind.
I’m afraid UK politicians fully deserve public ridicule and contempt.
1.
“Boris is not up to the job and doesn’t have proper policies.”
The first part of your sentence is right. But lacking policies? His policy towards the good electors of Henley and Thame (and points in between) seems to be the same as his policy towards his good lady wife.
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/yvonne_roberts/2006/04/the_verb_to_borisand_what_it_m.html
chrishio I have never found any real evidence that devaluations help exports in the medium to long term. They are quick fixes if they are fixes at all.
The Euro zone is beginning to suffer because of the cost of the Euro and the EU yesterday cut its growth forecast. Southern Europe is in the worst position and the Spanish government is talking about spending its budget surplus to increase growth. Not surprising as there is an election there next month and people are feeling the pain.
If Euro Zone growth falls who are we going to export to with our ultra cheap Pound when most of our exports are top end services and goods rather than everyday must have-to-live things.
So devaluation against the Euro will be unlikely to do much for us except make holiday bookings move outside the Euro Zone: Turkey and Egypt seem to be doing well so far this year in the forward bookings.
145.Welcome back JackW.
145 Mike S. Thank you Mike …….. however…..
Firstly. Well done to team “Peter Jacques” for their stirling imitation. A little project well executed.
Secondly. May I thank all the well wishers who sent cards, e-mails, books and even flowers over the past several months. They were all much appreciated.
Thirdly. I am delighted to say that much to my shock, that for the first time in many years my health has improved very significantly and the long term prognosis is excellent. Mmhhh, as long term as any 105 year old can expect!
And lastly …..
…… there has been a deal of specualtion in the press, here and elsewhere on the identity of Jack W. Most care not a jot (the right attitude). Some think they know and a few really do know. Our esteemed host has promised not to reveal the identity ….. however ……
Mike and some others have laboured under the mis-apprehension that Jack W is Viscount Monckton. I confess I didn’t disabuse them of the notion but neither did I confirm it. But Jack W is NOT Christoper Monckton, indeed a simple google in PB archives made against the date of funeral of Monckton’s father would have shot the theory down.
However I wouldn’t want to lead Mike and others too far astray and cause any embarrassment to them or the site.
So the sites very own Scarlett Pimple of PB remains free to release political common sense from the shackles of party hacks everywhere !!!!! ….. the contents of my much loved ARSE will again pour forth.
It’s so very nice to be back.
152. Re. the middle ages (and indeed later) you are confusing the existence of a common currency with the parallel circulation of separate currencies.
Various types of coinage, minted by different authorities, were frequently to be found in use in many European countries in earlier times. Rates of exchange between these parallel currencies also existed, fluctuating under the influence of a variety of factors - including the extent to which different kings/princes etc. tried to fool their subjects by watering down the precious metal content.
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Ohio Democrat Primary. Obama £106.15 at 9/4 with Paddy Power. Clinton £200 at 8/11 with Ladbrokes. Total investment £306.15. Total return, whichever of them wins £345. Profit £38.85. 12.69% return.
Alternatively just back the value part of ther bet, Obama at 9/4, which is what I have done.
Welcome back Jack W, it hasn’t been the same…
Is there a market anywhere on the Texas Democratic delegate count, as opposed to Primary popular vote?
Welcome back Jack W.
158. It’s not so much the Europe issue itself that will damage the Lib Dems (though you are wrong to dismiss the loss of your southwest heartland as “just a few seats”).
It’s the branding. Ir’s how this damages your brand. The perception that the Lib Dems are just as craven, self-serving and mendacious as the other parties is fatal to your already limited appeal. The other parties can afford to lie, to put it bluntly, because they are so big, they will survive (I don’t approve but I merely note).
You cannot.
Moreover this desperate bunch of fibs you are now telling about Europe, just to help Gordon Brown, increases the image of you as decaf Labour. What’s the point in voting for you if all you do is support Labour, come what may?
OT, but can the assembled brains of pb.com help me come up with a pseudonym for my thriller?
I’m serious. My publishers want a nom de plume.
There are several criteria.
It has to be masculine without being steroidal, short without being terse, memorable without being comic, unique without being bizarre.
I wanted to call myself Joe Blackwood, which was popular until the publishers remembered the film MEET JOE BLACK. Apparently that overlap will confuse readers (don’t ask me why).
To give you an idea, other ideas floating around are
Tom Lockwood
Joe Kendall
Sam Driver
David Judd
Jon Cutler
none of them quite make it, for various reasons.
If anyone can come up with a good name, that gets the publishers approval, I will buy them lunch in the Groucho. Including wine.
And that’s a sincere promise, not a Lib Dem manifesto promise.
Bloody hell, that was a shock to randomly log on and see a post from JackW of all people sitting there! What a turn-up for the books.
Welcome back, glad to read you’re in good health. I too look forward to seeing your ARSE at the earliest opportunity.
(I should say that I would have joined in with the cards, emails and well-wishing but there was slight obstacle in my path on that front…!)
176. Demn’d elusive Pimple!
I’ll happily add my voice to the growing chorus - Very Welcome back Jack, and I look forward to the pouring forth of your ARSE in due course.
[174] - A devaluation can give you a breathing space which can then be used for long-term benefit. The record of British manufacturing in this regard is poor. As a country we are particularly prone to looking for the easy profit and not for the medium term investment that will pay off.
This is one reason we have de-industrialised more than any other country I can think of.
180. ladbrokes. We’re settling on total delegates awarded from primary and caucus votes.
181 - how about Brent South?
“I’m serious. My publishers want a nom de plume. SeanT”
Agatha Le Caree?
181 Jack Monckton?
186 - thanks.
170 - well if John McCain can come back…..welcome back Jack, although I’m not the only one doubting you’ve ever really been away. It was truly a sad day when we saw the back of your ARSE.
The dual referendum proposal is intriguing - and gives Nick Clegg the chance to save face and head off a potential rebellion he can probably do without. Also if the other parties were to get behind it, it could be a nervy vote for Gordon, and as a result Labour disunity on the issue could be exposed. It’ll be interesting to see how he responds.
Hang on have just seen that there is a prize (including wine)!!!
So seriously
Try James Crozier
188 Matthew Mark Luke John Mohammed.
That should boost sales…
Though try calling yerself Mark Thomas……you’ll appeal to a whole new right on audience then…
181. Eugene Simpson!
181. How about Uriah Rowe ?
Think about the spine of the book : U.Rowe
Surely Jack W is Hillary Clinton - Has been busy over recent months but now looks like having time on her hands again.
J K Thomas?
Timothy You are right, the devaluations of the past have been wasted. I think they always will be, here and elsewhere.
The German approach until recently was to maintain a strong currency and encourage exporters to cope, which they did and still do very well. German companies have innovated and increased productivity as a result and their manufacturing base is still strong.
Compare that with the UK. Yet still economists look to their theoretical models and insist that devaluation will increase exports full stop.
181. Of course, if the Europe issue did cost the Lib Dems their south-west heartland, then it wouldn’t be “just a few seats”. But I don’t think anyone’s suggesting a Lib Dem wipeout in the south-west.
The point is that the Liberals (and later the Lib Dems) won these seats as a pro-European party and voters have already taken this into account. I suspect that Europe won’t be any more salient at the next election than in 1997 or 2001, when Goldsmith and Hague respectively put it front and centre.
If your argument is a generalized one concerning the Lib Dems’ honesty, then I agree with you - but I’m not sure the Tories will be able to make it stick given that they won’t be offering a (post-ratification) referendum either.
What is much more likely is a general swing to the Tories on the basis of voter antipathy to the Labour government, with traditional Tory voters deciding to elect a government again instead of backing their local Lib Dem MP. Then you’d see Lib Dem MPs in the west country fall to a Tory tide, like Pardoe and Thorpe did in 1979. But if this happens I can’t think the European referendum issue would matter much either way.
Chuck Pound?
Gordon Bennett?
Go American…James Winklepicker III.
Or Irish Seamus O’Leprachaun
Or Dynamic….Steve Rocket
Anyway something Lewis has it all, the glamour of well known actors (Daniel Day & Damian)..the solidity of a well known newsreader (Martyn) and the action man image(Collins)….
Lunch is over now…..
181
Joshua Rhinehalt appears to be free or at least nothing found on a Google search.
or how about ‘Madeleine Bunting’ nah, on second thoughts far to potentious
181 Peter Ashton
OK, not great but if you don’t buy a ticket, you can’t win the raffle.
74. Devaluation is not always a good thing if it is done in an attempt to restore competitiveness whilst not combating inflation. On the other hand being stuck in a single currency area where you are uncompetitive and unable to devalue isn’t great either. Germany allowed the Mark to go into the Euro at two high a level and suffered years of stagnation.
Ian Phuket.
Deer Sterling ?
200 I actually knew sometimebody called Chuck Mudd. I kid you not.
But at least it’s better than Richard Sheath.
185. Yes the most shocking statistic is that the share of industry in UK GDP is now down to 15% - THE SAME LEVEL AS THAT BASKET CASE ECONOMY, THE UNITED STATES, with its pathetic levels of income per head.
We had a client called Randy Bullock.
Serious entry:
James Stracken
Welcome back JackW - normal service has been resumed.
MPs expenses: Peter Kilfoyle has proposed the following EDM:
THE REPORTING OF MR NICK ROBINSON
25.02.2008
Kilfoyle, Peter
That this House deplores the innuendo of the blog of Nick Robinson, the BBC’s lobby correspondent; calls upon him to substantiate the imputations he makes in his blog concerning the Speaker and hon. Members; and also calls upon the BBC to publish a full, itemised account of the expenses of Mr Robinson, in the name of transparency and accountability of public funds.
The names of those who support this can be found here:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=35234&SESSION=891
For the record, Mr Kilfoyle’s expenses were:
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/peter_kilfoyle/liverpool%2C_walton#expenses
In the top third of MPs……
181. James Scott.
Cabinet ordered to release Iraq war discussions
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1307016,00.html
Big story ?
176 Oh no, not you again. I thought we got rid of you for good.
211. Knew paddy tipping would be involved, arse kissing lickspittle!
214 Mighty Fella. You should be thrilled. The dog’s bollocks is back !!!!
I always find myself drawn to books with either interesting titles or interesting names of Authors. To that end I would be attracted to something along the lines of Titus Brooks, but then I’m aware I may be out of the mainstream on this.
SeanT: How about “Jack Thomson”?
JackW - welcome back!
Nice to have you back, Jack.
Take no notice of that stupid dog.
Former Dem contender Sen. Christopher Dodd to endorse Obama :
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Obama-Dodd.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
………………………….
Thanks for all the warm wishes.
BBC reporting that the Information Commissioner is demanding that the minutes of the Cabinet meetings when TB dissembled and worse to get us to go to war in Iraq be made public.
219 PtP. Hello old chap.
How’s the great project progressing ?
re 170 perhaps Jack W is Hillary!
Try to keep up Jack - I know you’re getting on - here’s my endorsement summary from this morning @ 70)
TODAY’S OBAMAMANIA ENDORSEMENTS;
Cincinnati (OHIO!) Mayor Mark Mallory endorses Obama
Sen. Chris Dodd (CT) will also endorse today (in Ohio)
Columbus Ohio Mayor Don Culliver will endorse Obama today.
Ohio Pastors endorse Obama http://tinyurl.com/324bg3
Not only but also;
Now EVERY daily newspaper in Texas
Louis Farrakhan!
We’re still waiting for “Richard” and “Matthew JCG Partridge” but I don’t think we’re due those any time soon..
Buzz Goodyear….
How very uplifting to see Jack W return.
“Mark Clayton” is my rubbish entry for seanT’s contest - and I must confess to a chuckle at how eager we all are for a free lunch…
Do the Lib Dems have the biggest % split over the Treaty referendum than the % split in Labour or the Conservatives?
I counted 7 (11%) of the LD MPs are for a Treaty referendum =
Harvey, Hancock, Heath, Younger-Ross, Hemming, Breed, Farron,
LDs Still making their mind up include =
Gidley
By contrast Labour have 7% going against their party’s line with 26 on the IWAR site.
223 ChrisA. “Shame on you ChrisA …. meet me in Ohio tonight and we’ll discuss that natty line in turbans!!”
224 PC. Well done. I’ll have to look to my laurels or employ Andrea!
222 Erm…we don’t talk about that, Jack.
224.
I’m endorsing … John McCain.
Anyway Obama now leads in Texas although McCain has a majority in the Lone Star State.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/26/obama-surges-into-the-lead-in-texas/
Even I’m reassesing my betting position on Hillary.
Out of curiosity I thought I’d check to see where the first 10 of these MPs so indignant about Nick Robinson’s expenses rank in their own claiming of expenses. And its curious - none of them represent a London constituency - but there is a huge spread in the amounts of expenses they need to do their jobs.
Peter Kilfoyle: 228 (£142,401)
George Howarth: 494 (£127,073)
David Hamilton: 410 (£133,384)
Ian Stewart: 190 (£144,222)
Jim Devine: 13 (£163,402)
Janet Anderson: 43 (£155,610)
Anne Moffat: 350 (£136,483)
Greg Pope: 105 (£148,800)
Ken Purchase: 501 (£126,502)
Martin Salter: 509 (£125,515)
Or about £1.4 million between the first ten…and a range of over £36,000 between the highest to lowest…..
181 Adrian Harper
“Politico” looks inside the Clinton campaign and her tactics for tonights debate in Ohio :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8692.html
………………
229 PtP. Sorry to hear that Peter.
Help!
I need to spice up my essay on ‘What role did war play in encouraging the growth of prime ministerial powers in the twentieth century?’
Yes, hard to spice up but does anyone have any ideas about how to make it a bit more interesting yet decent enough to hand in?
I can’t offer you free drinks but hugs and kisses are in abundance.
227 update. LD revolt believed to be 25%.
The Telegraph says that it is 16 LD MPs against the parliamentary party line.
http://tinyurl.com/yodmxb
Artificially devaluing the currency below the market rate would not help long term. But overvaluing it above the market rate (as was done in the ERM causes obvious problems.
But the main reason not to join the euro is the loss of control of monetary policy to the centre, losing control over the best stimulus tool we have. That would be fine as long as the economy throughout the EU was similar, but that simply isn’t the case. London could easily be booming while there was a recession in Sofia. Just look at Michigan - its recession has been ignored by the federal goverment for decades. And US states are far more similar to each other than EU nations.
Jack, we are open to offers on our shares in PtPs TentoFollow sydicate. Note it used to be “ours” when we were in The Racing Post, but now we are all blaming Peter!
234 Sorry, Benny, it’s lunch at the Groucho Club or we won’t play.
235, nice to see some Lib Dems with both political acumen and a sense of decency. Apparently Killer Cable wants a referendum on Lisbon too.
181 Why not just a variant - Euan Thomey?
222 welcome back Jack W
238. What about a waffle with ice cream opposite the London Eye?
234 Benny. You might wish to try a few counter arguments :
Churchill won the war and lost the election. Eden resigned after the Suez shambles and Blair left office after the Iraq war. Although the latter is 21st century.
237 Icarus. No chance!!!
OK, so far we’ve had
Ian Phuket
Chuck Mudd
Buzz Goodyear
Randy Bullock
J K Thomas
Brent South
Seamus O’Leprachaun
and
James Winklepicker III
I’ll have a mull over these.
Without wishing to offend anyone, more ideas would be welcome. Ahem. And if anyone can come up with an actual idea for the thriller title as well (its about genes, Eden, the Hellfire club and human sacrifice) I’ll make it a slap-up champagne lunch!!
Ta.
234. Okay, here’s some ideas.
(1) Why not talk about whether power can be conceived as a zero-sum game? For instance, war may have made the PM more powerful relative to other political actors, but it also increased the total power of the state - so even if the PM’s relative power remained the same, his actual amount of power increased.
(2) FWIW I think that, on balance, war has tended to diminish prime ministerial power. Asquith, Chamberlain, Eden were all relatively secure till wars came along. And where coalitions were formed - in both world wars - the resultant bargaining weakened the PM’s hand, even when (as in Churchill’s case) he had huge prestige.
(3) Obviously the other thing you have to do is isolate the effects of war on PM powers from underlying / domestic trends.
I could do without the hugs and kisses though, thanks.
235. There could yet be defections over this issue…
239. well its just like any difficult issue for the Lib Dems as they are the “Maybe” party they might as well get half their lot to vote for a referendum and half against it. Makes sense to me. or just abstain. or just choose not to exist. all the same really.
toot toot, looking forward to seeing Jack’s ARSE again, as well as some good old Soames weighting.
239 - Makes a bit of a mockery of Clegg’s first three-line whip.
If he’d been sensible, he’d have made it one- or two-line - anyone not wanting to destabilise the leader would have abstained as asked, but if they did rebel, he could say it’s because he didn’t insist on a three-line whip.
I think he looks weak now, and the only way to recover is to banish (eg) David Heath from being the spokesman on Justice (without an obvious replacement to hand - Ming, perhaps?). He didn’t even need to do it either - it’s not as though without him the government would actually lose.
245. i doubt it
241 Now you’re talking!
Don’t just talk about WW1 and WW2. Remember Boer (just) and Korea. Also, examine the way the UK/Prime Minister stayed out of Spain and Vietnam.
WW2 was the most successful “comand economy” Britain has ever known. Great concentration of power over all aspects of public and private life. WW1 led to one PM losing his job because he was not powerful enough; he was replaced by one who was v. powerful indeed - and his power (like Churchills) lasted long after the war ended.
Just a few quick thoughts. Off to a meeting.
243.
Brendan Layman
Chester Plumtree
Alexander Riordan
243 Garden of, or Anthony?
230. Hey, don’t give up just yet. She’ll get the inevitable “Iraq bounce” once democracy kicks in:
http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&VideoID=23739860
Tomas Webb.
Kazimir Vogolya. (Russiany and exotic).
Edmund Sinfield.
Do we get a mini-synopsis?
247. No. He has another way out. He could agree to a two part referendum: one on the Treaty, one on in-or-out.
That way he stays reasonably consistent, at least with his statements of the past week; he also honours his manifesto promise. And the Lib Dems could honestly campaign for a Yes Yes, while the Tories campaign for a No Yes. And Labour are f***ed.
This is the whole point. Such a move would seriously discomfort the government, mildly discomfort the Tories, and gain the Lib Dems much needed media approval.
And it would shelve the EU issue for a decade, much to everyone’s relief, as I think the British would almost certainly vote No Yes. Then the government would just have to opt out of everything post-Nice.
What’s not to like?
Jack- could perhaps throw in some Northern Rock shares as well!
240 - or Tom Johnson. Don’t know about ‘memorable’ though…
255 Icarus. And Zimbabwean dollars ????
243 Brett (or Brent) Frampton. And that’s my final offer.
243 - Title suggestion either Paradise of Pain or Helix of Pain.
Absolutely great to have you back Jack - and deeply satisfying to learn that the slightly smug few who thought they knew of your true identity were in fact totally wrong - Haha!
Also slightly humbling now to realise that in responding to posts from Peter Jacques, etc., we were in fact communicating with the legendary Jack W.
181 - Adam Grant (as far as I can google, the most prominent one is an executive with Morgan Stanley or something)
244 - I think it might be worthwhile to distinguish between the office of prime minister and the incumbents. The power of Prime Ministers has clearly increased, though I would say that war has demonstrated this, rather than being a cause of it. The one exception being the Falklands, of course.
And we could toast our success in some Claret that I’ve been keeping - 1992 of course!
Names for Sean - Clearly a rearrangement of Classic Literary Figures is the answer:
Charles Bronte
Austen Dickens
William Chaucer
Geoffrey Joyce
James Milton
Alternatively, you could go for Literary-Political Hybrids:
Blake Clinton
Austen Bush
Or try for a footballing-political line:
Keegan Brown
Barack McClaren
Bill Shepherd
Or I could give up on this unprofitable venture…
243
Mohammed Roadrunner?
A Catchy name or an explosive title, take your pick.
Dick Morris, former advisor to Bill Clinton and Trent Lott says Obama’s experience of this campaign shows he’s ready for the Presidency :
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_dick_morris/obama_s_real_experience_his_candidacy
…………………..
260 PfP. Not so. I helped with “Project Jacques” but almost all of the posts were from ‘the five’. True though I watched with interest and pride.
David Hussein (in oblique homage to your current political idol)
Title: Bloodline
Hello again Jack - Back And Contributing Knowledgeably, Providing A Significant Service At General Elections.
Or BACK PASSAGE for short.
267 Aaron. Very good. You’re hired.
265 - Does that mean that Kinkell will be popping in occasionally as well - or is he lost to the world…
The Genesis Offering
by Zac Thomson
or by Frank Dashwood …
Patricia Weatherill!
May I suggest the following names, seanT? I think a high-scoring Scrabble letter is essential, as you can see:
Stephen Zibb
David Questing
Xavier Weston
William Knott
Marcus Foxhart
Title: Lucifer’s Children
The “Dallas News” reports that early voting in Texas has been very heavy :
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/DN-voting_26met.ART.State.Edition2.4688546.html
……………………
269 Lennon. You never know ?!?!
268 - I wonder if Jack W realises how many man-hours were spent Googling about the time of his sabbaticcal starting in trying to work out who the heck he might be…..?
And still none the wiser.
Bunch of ARSE, as Basil Fawlty might put it!
As for a title - Sodom & Sacrifice
Well, it is a good day when the geriatric rapscallion returns, spreading mystery and puzzlement, as is his way. Welcome back indeed!
SeanT, given that Sean is John/Iain in Gaelic, then perhaps Iain Sterling or John Cornwall. (John Le Carre, is aka David Cornwall…)
Meanwhile, back at the catfight.
If the debate was just about the mechanics of Europe, while we all accepted that our membership was not a question, then that would be one thing, but the reality is that the anti Europeans are so opposed to the EU, that any proposal-no matter what- is automatically vetoed as “the anti democratic Bruxellois destroying our democratic liberties”, (although actually our MPs have been doing a much better job of destroying our liberties, but that is by the by). The result is that we have already opted out of huge parts of the EU project- the Euro, Schengen, and with formal opt-outs on large parts of several other treaties.
I think that the UK faces a choice. We either engage or disengage with the EU. I accept that the EU has worked OK without either a new treaty- “the constitutional treaty” or a revision of the current treaties, the Lisbon treaty. However, there is a whole lot of tidying up that has been agreed in Lisbon that is indeed both practical and required. If the UK rejects what all others have agreed, while at the same time remaining opted out of the Euro, Schengen, and several other significant pieces of common activity, then we are effectively so disengaged that we are opting out of the EU in the form that the other states have agreed. I think that this is not in the British interest.
I am not a Euro-fanatic, but I am sick of being pilloried as some kind of traitor, simply because I believe that our semi detached position in the EU is diminishing British influence and alienating many of our natural allies. I also think that Cameron and Brown think that they can maintain a working relationship with the rest of the EU, while at the same time pandering to the more rabid anti Europeans, and hinting at withdrawal. This is totally dishonest. Not only dishonest, it is dangerous- sooner or later you either say yes or no to the EU. This attempt to ride both horses and staying semi detached is just not tenable.
243 Sean etc
Jack Macallen
PJ McBride
John Trelawney
Mark Halperin reporting for “Time” in Cincinnati says that Hillary’s poll lead in Ohio masks her poor ground operation that is being outpaced by Obama :
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1717150,00.html
……………….
275 Bob/277 Cicero. “… geriatric rapscallion ..”
265.I wager that the joke about multiple threads and saville row suits was pure JackW.
273 book value. You old rogue !!! … have you purchased a moving picture box yet ?!?
279. Jack W. Obama is now 15/8 with Paddy Power to win Ohio. Looks a value bet to me.
Sean T. James Clarke.
280 ChrisD. You might think so …..
And what of Mi Lord Matlock …. has Beaconsfield’s finest surfaced recently ??
re the prior discussion on Europe http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2008/02/no-longer-sovereign.htm1
Sean
Given the subject matter surely you have to be Dr Something.
Dr James Bunsen-Burner
Dr Loop Henle
Dr Jose Patella
282 stjohn. Solid odds. Not just for trading.
Texas and Vermont have gone. Ohio looks on the way. Only Rhode Island might hold the line on March 4th.
A point to remember is that recently polls immediately prior to polling have underestimated Obama’s final figure significantly. If you recall the average of the last few days in Wisconsin was around 4-6% and in the end Obama won by 17 poiints.
145. It’s Lazarus! Welcome back Jack!
277. I’m sorry but many of your claims are simply untrue.
“the reality is that the anti Europeans are so opposed to the EU, that any proposal-no matter what- is automatically vetoed as “the anti democratic Bruxellois destroying our democratic liberties””
Actually, I would be much more accomodating if the Commission and the Council were both elected, and if the Parliament used an actually competitive electoral system - one which had no more than two seats per constituency, and not based on party lists. I would also have to question your use of the term “anti Europeans”. Most eurosceptics are not anti-Europe - I think Germany and Hungary are fantastic places, for instance - I just have very serious problems about the structures and mentality of the elite bureaucracy that is the EU.
“I think that the UK faces a choice. We either engage or disengage with the EU.”
A completely false dichotomy designed to force us into accelerating towards a superstate. The Netherlands and France are both entitled to reject new constitutions. Why should we not be allowed to? What is the problem with wishing for the EU to be an international institution that co-operates on problems that need transnational solutions? Why must we become a single state?
“However, there is a whole lot of tidying up that has been agreed in Lisbon that is indeed both practical and required.”
Perhaps. But argue precisely which bits need tidying up and we can discuss them. This argument has been used to much as a way of avoiding the actual new proposals in the constitution. And don’t pretend national parliaments losing their vetoes over a whole range of areas is merely ‘tidying up’. It is a transferral of sovereignty. You are also displaying the naivety that we are switching to a static constitution, when anyone who has studied politics can realise how the new positions introduced have a great deal of potential to consolidate and centralise power further.
“If the UK rejects what all others have agreed, while at the same time remaining opted out of the Euro, Schengen, and several other significant pieces of common activity, then we are effectively so disengaged that we are opting out of the EU in the form that the other states have agreed. I think that this is not in the British interest.”
Why is it not in the British interest to stand up for our own interests? Why must we meekly go along with what everyone else agrees? God knows the French don’t, with their utter refusal to reduce CAP subsidies. Or the Spanish, remaining stubborn with the Fisheries policy. Unlike the majority of states in the EU, we implement every EU directive wholeheartedly. We are pilloried for being honest about our reservations.
“I am not a Euro-fanatic, but I am sick of being pilloried as some kind of traitor, simply because I believe that our semi detached position in the EU is diminishing British influence and alienating many of our natural allies.”
Quite hypocritical for someone that has characterised anyone with problems about the EU project as rabid xenophobes. Since when is disagreeing with our allies the same thing as alienating them? To sign up for a superstate to keep our friends in Europe is as stupid as going along with foolish foreign policy blunders just to keep the Yanks happy. We are one of the most powerful countries in the world and we should stand our ground like everyone else.
277. By definition pro-Europeans are, with a few honourable exceptions, either traitors or liars.
They either want the absorption of the UK into an EU pseudo-superstate and they are open about it (these are the traitors, like Andrew Duff), or they want this but don’t dare tell the people in case they get rejected (the liars like most of Labour).
As polls consistently show, the British people want no further integration with Europe. Most of them want to claw powers back. A large proportion want to quit altogether.
The reason for this disenchantment is, actually, people like you. You europhiles have been lying and dissembling about Europe for a generation. “Oh it’s not really Federal”, “oh it’s just another little Treaty”, “oh just sign here and we’ll decide what it means later”, “oh we’ll give you a referendum oops no we won’t that was a lie”.
ENOUGH.
I agree with Nick Clegg, its time to end the bollox about Europe, and time people like him stopped lying about it. The endpoint of the EU project is ever-closer union, a cryptoFederal state. The British don’t want this.
Ergo we need some official semidetached status. But we need a way to draw a line under all this, and settle things for a decade or two. A good way, indeed the only democratic way, would be to call for a two-part referendum.
Do you agree with the Treaty
Do you want to leave or stay in the Union
I presume, as a supposed democrat, you will approve of this idea. Let’s do it. Then we can all abide by the results. Agreed?
Re titles and thrillers. I quite like Paradise of Pain. And Lucifer’s Children would be a really good title if it weren’t for Midnight’s Children. Hm…
Jack Macallen isn’t bad.
KappunKAP for all the suggestions! I’ll let you all know if the publisher bites.
287. Except in Hispanic states, which tend to have underestimated Clinton’s final share. She is leading among whites and Hispanics by 10-15 points in even the polls most favourable to Obama. If there is a significant Hispanic surge above last time she will win the popular vote in Texas.
Thanks to everyone who has contributed regarding war on PM powers in 20th century Europe. I’ll be doing this until 8pm tonight i guess
*eyes droopy*
JackW - no I have someone to vote for in poster of the year - welcome back
Seant - I think you should make use of a character from Len Deighton’s Funeral in Berlin. Johnny Vulkan was a character crying out to have his story told and I’m sure it would include genes,Eden the Hellfire Club etc
243 How about ‘Genesisyphus’ as a title?
(Gene, Eden in book of Genesis, Sisyphus was condemned to Hell for refusing to recognise instruction (’do what thou wilt’), and he then pursueded his wife not to offer the sacrifices required upon death, so he could pursuede Persephone to release him from Hades)
After the pub in question, “George Undgeier” might be a suitable name…
SeanT- You think I am a treacherous liar, I think you are a blind fool, especially since the only misrepresentation around here is being done by you.
I guess we have reached a kind of conclusion- so Pax?
After the horror story of Calcutta, is Asian life now improved?
290 - As far as Titles go, its a bit long, and already used, but other than that… Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil
Sean T
As this is Politicalbetting perhaps a name from a political source?
“Charles Lynton”, “AC Lynton” - Title “Ma Cherie Amour”
or alternatively Our Leader “James Gordon” - “Bottled!”
from the opposition benches
“William Donald”"Cameron Donald” - “Gaylord Conspiracy”"Ponceybooting”
“Peter Nicholas”"Wiliam Nicholas” -”The Schrödinger Scenario”
Ooh… given the book theme how about Watson Crick as the Author…
295. I will agree a Farewell to Arms if you agree to a two part referendum.
1. The EU Constitution
2. In or Out
This seems to me to cover all our bases. The chances of it happening are minuscule, but I’d like to see some honesty from europhiles, just for once. Just for the principle of it.
So if you agree this is a good idea, then we can call a ceasefire.
Asia is sweet. I’m back in Bangkok. Just finished the 41st chapter of the thriller. 90,000 words in. Exhilarating to write. Might be total pants to read.
296. That is a good title, isn’t it? One of those titles that comes from silly mid-off: it shouldn’t work but it does.
I think maybe the best thriller title ever was Day of the Jackal. Apparently the book is pretty cool, too.
Written by a good eurosceptic, natch.
SeanT
The Pyres of Life
by Elvira Swish
Looks like Indiana does not want Hillary!
http://www.wibc.com/News/Story.aspx?ID=85773
291 Socrates. If Hillary is is only leading by 10-15% among Hispanics then she is decidedly burnt bread !!
Indeed the SUSA Texas poll published overnight shows just that. The lead amongst Hispanics is down to 13% from 33% !! … and early polling in black and other ‘Obama friendly districts’ is outpacing Hispanic areas by fourfold. IMO Texas has gone.
290. Surely the Ludlum approach to thriller naming is the way forward. The Sacrificial Gene. The Hellfire Genome. The Eden Sanction.
299. As a Euro cautious LD I would go for that.
125. Peter golds.
“In the 2004 Mayoral (both ballots), GLA constituency, GLA list and European elections along with all recent local elections his neighbours voted Conservative, including Norris leading Livingstone on both ballots”
If my good neighbours in Old Compton St really did vote for Norris in 2004 I can only think they could spot a potential client when they saw one!.
301 Goupillon. Small sample, but it’s clear the way the wind is blowing.
302. Except Hispanics in Texas outnumber blacks 3.5 to 1. Even with a slightly higher black turnout, Clinton still has enough to win it among whites if she has about a 12% lead with them.
265. Jack W - Welcome back - Dick Morris is head cheerleader for the Stop Hillary campaign. He is actively encouraging Republicans to vote in the upcoming Dem Primaries against her so it is of little surprise he would back Obama in this way.
To be honest I find the argument supporting his viewpoint in the article weak. Clinton’s campaign strategy was presumptious, one dimensional and weak. Consequently Obama has had only to run an average campaign to win.
Whatever happened in the past between Morris and the Clintons, there is obviously some serious bad blood there. Just watch Morris’s performances on Fox News and you’ll see.
301. Indiana is like Illinois’ little brother. It was always going to go Obama.
309 I would have thought that as far as Indiana TV stations are concerned the ongoing drama of the Indiana Hoosiers basketball coaching situation would have pre-empted all minor news such as Presidential races…
308 jsfl. Agreed.
307 Socrates. Blacks are breaking to Obama around 9/1 !!
350K Hispanics say 58/42 = Clinton 203K - Obama 147K
100K Blacks 10/90 = Clinton 10K - Obama 90K
Clinton 213K - Obama 237K
Not accounting for differntial turnout. Game over.
I’m in favour of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, and could tolerate an “in or out” referendum (though I don’t really see the need. However, I’m definitely against a two-stage referendum of the type that Ian Davidson MP is proposing, on the simple ground that some permutations may be unworkable. Never mind the unlikely but conceivable outcome of “for the Lisbon Treaty but out of the EU”, problems could also be caused by the much more likely outcome of “against the Lisbon Treaty but stay in the EU”.
The chief problem would be that the Government would be sent into renegotiate with an impossible remit. The Government would be deputed to obtain radical revisions which might not be attainable through negotiations. What then? The nation had voted in favour of remaining in the EU, so the Government couldn’t flounce out or seek to set up a semi-detached status. We would be in a shambles for years.
So, reluctantly, while I think Nick Clegg’s position is disreputable and he thoroughly deserves to be impaled on his own policy, it is reasonable for him to say no to the idea of a two-prong referendum of this type.
Further link to the Indiana poll :
http://www.howeypolitics.com/
310. Perhaps but my point is that its mindset is very similar, and theres a lot of cross-state contact between residents of the two states, students going to the other state’s colleges, commuting from Indiana to Chicago etc. By the time they come to make a decision (which is still two months away), it’ll be heavily Obama.
Welcome back Jack W you old scoundrel you!
A champagne lunch at Grouchos with the winner of the worst porn in literature award for 2004 would be interesting. Last time I had lunch there Fay Weldon was sitting at the ajoining table with Kazuo Ishiguro. I just don’t know how I’d explain it to the membership committee…………
[299] Should be a referendum. Should be in or out. Asking the Lisbon treaty question is pointless- if we say yes we are in, if we say no we are out.
Freddie Forsyth is borderline bats when you meet him though.
Some more Cool Titles :
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
Tender is the Night
A Pair of Blue Eyes
One Hundred Years of Solitude
Heart of Darkness
On the Black Hill
Ballad of the Sad Cafe
The Republic of Whores
The Engineer of Human Souls
Between Three Plagues
The Catcher in the Rye
The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie
The Power and the Glory
Link to the new SUSA poll for Texas
poll :http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c6190368-049d-43a8-b5e7-d28f3a3eba96
……………….
Thanking one and all again for your kind sentiments on my return.
311. Say 200K Whites = Clinton 116K Obama 84K. Adding them to your total makes it close, as things stand.
Having said that, Clinton’s looking like she’s gone all out to shoot herself in the foot with this latest Muslim garb stuff.
318. Oooppps
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c6190368-049d-43a8-b5e7-d28f3a3eba96
[311] - I thought Texas didn’t matter that much anyway, because the way the delegates get diced up Obama was always likely to get an even share, or slightly ahead, on most likely outcomes of the vote.
Ohio is where the doubt is. If Obama were to lose badly, or even at all, in Ohio it would encourage Clinton to fight to the bitter end. It would encourage her to insist on seating Florida and Michigan and all the other bitter, lawyer and lobbyist-infested avenues that they are exploring. She’s going to need to be humiliated by another Obama clean sweep to consider giving up.
319 Socrates. But whites aren’t breaking in that manner. Quite the reverse. See the poll @ 320.
312. So you’re saying from the get-go that people shouldn’t be allowed the choice of the Conservative policy position, who are currently the most supported party in the UK.
What’s wrong with not signing the new treaty anyway. If the EU refuses to listen to the people, it needs major revisions. This attitude that exists of “The people said no. Let’s just go away and do the same thing anyway.” is appalling in a supposedly democratic organisation.
322. That poll says whites 56% Clinton unless I’ve lost the ability to read tables.
321 If Clinton doesn’t win both Ohio and Texas she is toast.
If she wins them narrowly she may stay in a little longer but even that’s not certain.
From the way superdelegates are now breaking Obama is going to have it sewn up barring major wins by Clinton in those states.
317. Repulsive.
You only want a referendum in-or-out because you think you might win that. You don’t want a Lisbon treaty referendum because you know you would lose it. Even when offered a compromise, a two party plebiscite, you can’t quite trust the people, can you?
You are a typical europhile. You only want democracy only when and if it suits you. I don’t even believe you would support an in-or-out referendum if it came to it, just because you might lose that, too.
Your views are rubbish. Your ideas are vomitous. You are a howling embarrassment. I can see why you are in the Lib Dems.
312. Nonsense. Going back to the EU with a No vote on the Constitution but the desire to stay in the EU would be the same position as France and Netherlands faced after their No votes.
I guess there is a pitifully tiny chance that the people might vote No to the EU but Yes to the Treaty but the Scots had a two part referendum, did they not? - tax raising powers and an executive - and no one worried they might say Yes and then No.
Democracy is Messy. So be it.
The fact is the EU project now needs popular assent from the people. Let’s ask the voters - and then we can all finally move on.
I am happy to ask the people and I will accept their verdict, even if they ask for a Federal superstate. Shame we can’t say the same about the europhiles.
320 - the real point of interest from that poll is the change in gender split over the last week:
Men were 57-37 Obama, now 57-35
Women were 62-35 Clinton, now 53-42
The sisterhood is abandoning her.
Unsure if this has been posted already:
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/02/22/hillarys-alamo-updated-tx-delegate-projections/
Some phenomenally detailed, district by district, projections for Texas.
324 Socrates. Apologies I was reading the wrong table !!
I am 105 you know !!
New thread - Is 5/1 Kathleen Sebelius a good V-P bet?
319) etc - According to some, “It’s plausible that African-American turnout could push north of 40 percent in the Democratic primary,” (Texas);
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/v-print/story/28333.html#
328 Andrew. Yes but it’s worth repeating.
A new analysis on the latest polls will make even grimmer reading for Hillary.
323. From your US perspective, dear philosopher, you appear to be labouring under some misapprehensions.
1. That the public have a right to express an opinion other than that expressed by their rightful superiors, the europhile establishment.
2. That such an opinion might be listened to.
3. That there may legitimately be views of the future of the EU which differ from that which has been divinely ordained by the Fathers of the European Ideal.
4. That the EU is a democratic organisation, rather than an institution explictly designed to dilute the democratic input into decision making and replace it with a bureaucratic/technocratic oligarchy.
329. Happy birthday, Jack. Probably a few weeks late but never mind!
334 David. Yes the 15th January !
325 Park Town Boy
It is becoming increasingly obvious that Hillary has to win BOTH Ohio and Texas big time - by at least 10% I should estimate - in order to stayin with a realistic chance.
It is also increasingly obvious that this is not very likely.
The fat lady has cleared her throat and is doing a few scales. She will be performing on March 4th.
Now that I have posted, the thread will close, as has become the custom around here.
[326] No seanT - the puke is on your breath- this is just the kind of billious attack masqerading as argument that makes the Anti-Euro fanatics the most poisonous thugs in British politics- And when you accuse people who disagree with you of all the formications in hell, you can understand why the reaction is simply “f**k off”.
Using referendum a a weapon is both self serving and purile- you accuse me of trying to choose the ground, you are just as guilty and the reality- as even Cameron recognises- is that by the time any of this can be voted on, the treaty is ratified.
So come out of the naughty corner and deal with the fact that you are just straight wrong.
337. A good example of the attitudes alluded to in my previous post at 333.
‘We the Europhiles will decide what happens, and the opinions of the rest of you have no relevance’.
337. Cicero is generally seen as one of the most versatile minds of Roman culture and his writing the paragon of Classical Latin. Why are you abusing his good name?
6. At this moment I can’t see why Boris isn’t favourite? Everything points to his odds being exceptional value. If it wasn’t that I believe Ken to be an outstanding tactician and Boris to be a hopeless oaf who will blow it then that’s the way I’d be betting.
You’ve answered your own question.
I noticed that on ITV4 there was a Michael Caine film about a British KGB defector called “Phil Kimberley”. Perhaps Sean Thomas could be Tom Shaunessy.