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Did Ken hold back MORI to trump YouGov?

February 27th, 2008


    The MORI poll he reported is nearly three weeks old

I have now got the fieldwork dates and some other details from the private MORI poll for Labour that Ken “pulled out of the hat” as news of the 5% deficit in the YouGov survey came out.

The MORI fieldwork started getting on for three weeks ago, on February 8th and went on until the 12th. A sample of 808 Londoners was interviewed by telephone.

The survey found on that on the first round it was 38% Livingstone, 35% Johnson and 14% Paddick. When second preferences were taken into account that moved to Ken 49% to Boris 47%.

The latest YouGov poll, which was commissioned by a media organisation, ITN, was conducted last week and had Boris on 44%, Ken on 39% with Paddick at 12%. In between the MORI and YouGov polls lee Jasper was suspended.

    My understanding is that Labour and Ken knew about the MORI poll almost as soon as it had been completed but it was deemed to be a deadly secret because of the closeness of the finding.

When Ken announced it yesterday, without providing the supporting data, I asked MORI for the detailed information and they obviously were not expecting the request.

I am assured that the full data will be provided in the two day time period that is laid down.

In the Mayoral betting Ken has moved out to 0.74/1 with Boris moving in to 1.2/1. My view, based on the evidence we have, is that Boris is now the marginal favourite.

Mike Smithson






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