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What will the chart look like on Wednesday?

February 28th, 2008

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    Is Obama really home and dry?

Just looking at the chart showing the changes in betting prices set out in terms of implied probabilities and you get a sense of this extraordinary race to be the Democratic standard bearer in the Presidential election on November 5th.

    But could there still be a sting in the tail? Could the Clintons stage one of their famous come-backs? Could the prospect of the first female president still be on?

In Texas they have advance voting and reports this afternoon suggest that this has reached record levels with more than a third of a million people having cast their votes in fifteen counties alone. Unlike some of the other contests in the past month the Clinton campaign has a good organisation in both Texas and Ohio and all the focus has been on this aspect of the process.

The Texas primary day itself will see caucuses in the evening when a third of the state’s delegates will be at stake and the betting has Obama as a clear winner. Hillary Clinton is still the odds-on favourite in Ohio.

My only observation is that older women in both states might be prompted to make the effort to vote for Hillary in the same way that things worked in New Hampshire. Still it’s going to be very hard to compete with the Obama ground organisation.

Texas – Democratic primary – March 4th
Hillary Clinton 2.45/1: Barack Obama 0.37/1

Ohio – Democratic primary – March 4th
Hillary Clinton 0.76/1: Barack Obama 1.2/1

Mike Smithson






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