Will being out-fundraised be what sinks Hillary?
March 4th, 2008
Would a $60m February Obama total trump any victories today?
One thing that we have not heard from the Obama campaign yet is how much money was raised in February and there’s speculation that this is being put on hold just in case Hillary is seen to have re-gained the momentum in today’s primaries.
Her campaign has announced that she raised $35m during the month - a move that just brought a statement from Camp Obama that they had exceeded the total without saying how much.
One US blogger who is watching this closely is Hugh Hewitt, and from what he has managed to discern is suggesting that the Obama total could exceed $60m - a sum which would be unprecedented in US political history
If Hillary does well overnight then such a massive sum would partially trump it. If Hillary comes in below expectation then a fundraising announcement from Obama could well be the last straw.
Latest US betting is here.
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Hillary will exit the race tonight/tomorrow morning.
That’s a great article Mike and a good point, there has been speculation that the figure might be “leaked” TODAY but I haven’t seen anything yet…
from previous thread..
HAS ANYONE HEARD FROM BETFAIR ON SETTLEMENT RULES FOR TEXAS?!!
Seems odd that no-one seems to know (I’ve tried) when the representative “experts” of PB.com are going to be sitting in a trading room in front of cameras when the results come in and no-one know whether to back or lay!
Mike can you call them? Maybe they will listen to someone with some gravitas…
Mike. I’ve heard from two UK based sources that the figure is closer to $70M !!
BTW … good luck in der Fuhrer Bunker tonight - Heil Highgate !!
Mike
I can’t reach you by phone. Can you put up a little reminder about tonite’s event at Elitebetting, in case anybody else wants to come?
Thanks
2 - I’m pretty sure Betfair don’t know, which is why I’ve avoided betting on Texas with them.
I’d make your point more generally - when are they going to start defining their markets properly *from the start*? Nevada was a bit of a mess, as was the late claim that ‘Next President’ only meant by election (excluding 300/1 value on Cheney).
I think Mike should ‘have a word’…
244. British things to be proud of?
How about: duffing up all the stupid little countries, conquering the seven seas, twatting the French and the Spanish time and again, thumping Hitler and Mussolini, beating up the fuzzywuzzies, colonising several continents, devising brilliant weapons, defeating vulgar little commies like you, sacking stupid coal miners, page 3 girls, viiagra, TV, the internet, Led Zeppelin, topless darts and lad magazines.
Any good?
3 LOL! Karl’s statue will be shaking with rage!
No she won’t, she’ll be beaten by running out of delegates to play for.
Won’t they just pay up when the tv networks states who has won? Although I realise that Texas has one of the more complicated methods of assigning delegates.
Clinton ahead in TX, tied in OH
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1461
6.
:) 
6. Yep, sums your lot up really. Moron.
Below is a useful guide to tonights events :
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
………………..
Close of polls - all times HMT - Highgate Mean Time.
Midnight - Vermont
12.30am - Ohio
2.00am - Rhode Island and Texas.
The Texas caucus starts at 2.15am
Additional word of caution on TX polls. The latest polls eg SUSA show 48% of people in Texas have already voted - so the benefit of a last 2 days Hillary “bounce” is blunted by that fact..
12. lol. You are a sad sad man, Borat. And yes you are a traitor. But don’t take it so personally.
Actually Borat - or Sacha Baron Cohen - makes me mildly praaaad to be British. The ribal debunking of authority is a great British tradition - from Hogarth on.
Gordon distances himself from Margaret Hodges comments:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/04/politicsandthearts.proms?gusrc=rss&feed=uknews
I would hope that “being Hillary” would sink Hillary, but it would seem that’s not quite enough, because some people have decided to forgive her being thoroughly hateful because she possesses lady-parts.
But, as we all know, it’s not how much you’ve got but what you do with it that counts. And Obama has out-campaigned Hillary at almost every turn.
Re: Maggie Hodge and her wretchedness.
The Last Night of the Proms is silly, in a uniquely British way. In order to understand it, one needs to have a sense of humour and an understanding of what it is to be British.
Which obviously rules out the entire Labour front bench.
15. Hahahaha, Sacha Baron Cohen would despise an idiot like you. His whole branch of comedy comes from mocking the whole flag waving culture, and of course, how proud Americans are of their ‘War of Terror’, as he calls it.
I followed the 1996 election very closely, particularly the Republican nomination process that was eventually won by Bob Dole. $25m was considered a huge and unprecedented amount for an entire campaign back then - from pre-Iowa to November. Now in 2008 we’re talking about $60m in one month… staggering.
12. After posting your utterly contemptible and abhorent rubbish at 244 on the last thread (and subsequently) you have the bare faced audacity to call anyone else (even SeanT!) a moron. You sir, give morons a bad name, you are neither clever nor even faintly amusing but you are very annoying (which I guess is your intention) so as other have suggested, why dont you emigrate off elsewhere (I suggest LibDem voice) where you may find a more receptive and interested audience.
15. The views of a sex tourist from afar…
Cameron answers questions from guardian readers:
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/03/live_web_chat_with_david_camer.html
(From previous thread)
20 quid bet for fun?
If Obama wins all 4 i give you 20 quid.
If Obama doesnt you give me 20 quid.
Hows that sound? Yokel
So, Yokel - “Generous” really is your middle name, eh?! But I’ll re-open the bet I posted the other day - Cats v Dogs. If Hillary gets a higher delegate count (supers excluded) than Obama in any one state voted on tonight - I’ll give £10 to the cats. If not - you give £20 to the dogs. On?
(Sorry for the late response - was walking the dog…)
Interesting post about Texas over at Obsidian Wings:
http://tinyurl.com/2pbzbk
“For one, winning the popular vote matters less than winning the heavily-weighted districts. And as most people now know, those districts are Obama-friendly territory. Second, the post-election caucus results (which provide roughly a third of the delegates) can’t possibly be known for at least a week.”
Worth a read, especially the comment, which suggests that the initial reports are likely to favour Hillary, but the final delegate reports a week later will be more helpful to Obama.
22, Colin? Is that you?
[193,prev thread] “168, if you’re comparing DNA with text you’re an idiot. You can alter words, length and language and retain the same meaning of a text. Reorder DNA and you’ll end up with a cow with its internal organs on the outside.”
Um, no. DNA can accumulate a number of random mutations without it affecting the end result, and then one other single mutation can be enough to create something very different. In the same way you can make a number of changes to a sentence without it affecting the meaning, but change “do” to “don’t” and you reverse the meaning completely.
So, actually, the two are very similar.
I’m guessing this was a discussion about changes between the “Constitution” and the “Reform Treaty”? Thinking about DNA is way more interesting…
Kos predictions for tonight :
Ohio - Clinton +4%
Texas - Obama +12%
Rhode I - Clinton +6%
Vermont - Obama +35%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/4/0317/56296/476/468379
21. JH, try actually analysing a post for once before simply diving into a thesaurus to make yourself sound clever. It doesn’t impress anyone on here, and certainly not me. If you wish to criticise my post, I suggest you do it in a sensible manner. You and SeanT have a lot to learn about posting ‘utterly contempible and abhorent rubbish’, as well as ‘giving morons a bad name’.
Grow up.
And if your worst insult is ‘Lib Dem’, then I pity you. As worthless as they may be in the current political environment, I’d rather vote for them than your backward looking party, which has successfully managed to alienate itself from the public for the last 11 years thanks to people like you.
14 - That is an important point, thanks. Is there information on the extent to which other states have voted in advance? If anything, it will help Clinton in Ohio and Rhode Island (some drift in recent days - although hard to say as different polling organisations). I stick with my prediction made weeks ago that Texas will finish her, but must admit that she seems to have kept it close whereas I had a hunch Obama would get a healthy win (although he still may).
28. Obama would almost certainly increase his overall delegate lead on those figures.
And now I’m in moderation for daring to disagree with a regular poster. Democracy eh.
As much as I dislike the focus of British patriotism on the past, I actually quite like the Last Night. It’s harmless.
More disturbing is the way newspapers like the Sun encourage xenophobia when there is a big football match - certainly against Germany.
As for SeanT’S list of great British things - I think I’ll pass on lad’s mags. And if you think we thumped Hitler and Mussolini, I think you are deluded. Without the American intervention in the war? Prior to the Nazi disintegration on the Eastern front (we let the comies bear the brunt of the war, Sean) Britain hardly won a single battle. Remember Singapore? I suppose you can say we kicked them when they were down (which in their cases was not unresonable). I’m also curious as to your point regarding sacking stupid coal miners. Presumably in every other country ’stupid miners’ are in full employment.
27. It was but please dont start them off again!!!
30 - Definitely - indeed it would certainly be the knockout blow. But the 12% lead prediction for Texas looks optimistic for Obama (not impossible given the mixed caucus/primary but it would be a really impressive result and kill the race).
26. My Col would never post under another name. Proud of ‘is name ‘e is.
19. That is a very blinkered view. Sasha Baron Cohen has made great comedy riling right-wingers and left-wingers alike. Just look at his superb interview with Tony Benn: “You talk about my right to work and that, but what about my right NOT to work, know what I mean?”
This all reminds me of how various people felt about Yes, Minister. Civil servants considered it a critique of parliament, whereas MPs thought it a critique of the bureaucracy.
Small donations are “clean” donations, and if only the Obama phenomenon could spread over here then it would solve the problem of British political parties in this respect, especially Labour.
I don’t hold out much hope of this happening. But maybe if supporters of political parties had a better idea of what their money was used for it could work again. (I suspect that the story about Cherie’s expensive “Urdu” during the last election did a lot of harm.)
31. I imgaine in most other modern economies they wouldnt pay people to go a mile under the ground at vast expense to the taxpayer solely with the purpose of paying them to do it.
31, I’m pretty sure that seanT posted that list with the express intent of winding up “Borat”, who was asking the question with the intent of winding people up.
I’m not winding you up, here
If anyone’s interested in Spanish affairs…
Which Party will win the most votes?
PSOE 1/8
PP 4/1
31. You can not underestimate Britain’s role in the war. Had it not been for the UK keeping the fight alive and refusing to surrender, despite being thoroughly ungunned, outmanned and let down by the French government, the USA would no doubt have come to some accomodation with Hitler while the USSR and the Third Reich went to war with each other. Europe would have come out entirely dominated by either Socialism or Nazism, to the detriment of progress and liberty worldwide.
37. With the increasing concern about energy supplies/price inflation, maybe a re-think is needed?
27 Interesting post…
In the heat of the referendum debate, it is sad that we overlook the legal differences between the old constitution and the reform treaty. The constitution would have required the repeal of previous acts of parliament that give the EU legitimacy, whereas this treaty keeps the previous acts in place and amends them.
I know that the spirit of the treaties is similar (or the same depending on your point of view), but there is a very real difference between the two when it comes to legal implementation. The constitution would have been a completely new settlement and a referendum would have been “technically” much more justified in that case.
I suspect, that technically therefore that the LibDem and Labour positions on the referendum are actually the more correct. But real politics has very little to do with technicalities.
35 - Except that Tony Benn was the only person to come out well of an interview with Ali G, because he wasn’t scared to argue with him (in his case about teenage mothers), whereas everyone else was so concerned about ingratiating themselves with the “yoof” that they didn’t dare.
40. I can accept that, but SeanT’s point about thumping Hitler and Mussolini is silly. And again, it makes us looks ridiculous to foreigners (though I doubt that is a deterrent for Sean).
There is a difference between patriotism and Natonalism. Patriotism is the love of ones country. Nationalism is the hatred of other countries and the wish to instill your own will upon those countries. Colonialism and imperialism fall into the latter.
So while I am deeply patriotic for England and Britain, and our history, I am not proud of our colonial past (or present).
Flags and the proms have nothing to do with it.
36 - Obama’s “small donations” story is partly spun. He has done well relative to Clinton in attracting significant numbers of donations below the $2300 mark but there are some big money contributors there too.
If nominated, Obama will have to work hard to avoid being linked to Tony Rezko, who has been involved with fundraising for the Democrat establishment in Illinois and is now on trial for money laundering offences. I stress that I have no idea whether Obama actually has anything to hide on the matter. But he and US politicians generally will continue to have similar issues to those we have here in the UK regarding fundraising.
45. I have always considered the difference between nationalism and patriotism is for the first to be loud-mouthed pride, and the latter to be quiet affection.
40. Robert Harris’s Fatherland gives some idea of the alternative..it was a chilling image.
41. No..its still not a good idea to pay people to go a mile under the ground at vast expense to the taxpayer just for the sake of paying them to do it.. I imagine the money is better spent on developing ‘alternative energy’.
[40] - The only caveat I would apply to that is that Britain hardly stood alone, the entire Empire was on our side: Canada, Australia, India, …
It’s at best rude to gloss over the contribution these people also made, but whenever it comes up, it’s always “plucky Britain”, as though it were just the country between Land’s End and John O’Groats who stood against Hitler.
All countries have their myths about their history, and conveniently forgetting about the Empire in the World Wars is ours.
OT. Casino Royale. After your mind numbing “IT MAKES ME WANT TO SPIT BLOOD” post on the last thread I thought you might enjoy this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMVql9RLP34&feature=related
48. Rezko is a bigger issue for Obama during the primaries, when the facts aren’t known and people aren’t sure about the connection. By the time of the general it will have been covered so comprehensively that people will be aware. The worst connection was that he bought one sixth of a lot off the guy, which he paid… one sixth of the purchase price for. Hardly damning.
48. The Rezko allegations seem pretty thin. As far as I can tell Rezco is a fraud who sold a strip of land to Obama (sounds a bit similar to the Peter Foster Cherie Blair story).
Apparently the Clinton campaign have been pushing this story for months and the media have only just gone with it.
40. Technically, it was Germany who finally declared war on the US, not the other way around (on December 11, 1941) It’s fascinating and horrifying to think about what would’ve happened if they’d ignored their treaty obligations with Japan and let the American jingoists rush headlong into war against the nation that had the nerve to bomb Pearl Harbor.
47. Very simplistic. Not all colonialists hated other countries, by any means. Many thought they were engaged in a very noble enterprise which was very much in the interests of the native peoples in the countries concerned - especially those with religious motivations.
We may laugh at them now, but their beliefs were sincerely held.
52 I think Casino would prefer this version from the 1987 Spitting Image election special.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEfcbBtypi4
Does anyone else remember this? One of the first things that got me interested in politics as a kid. We had to get the Tories out, they looked like they were there forever.
48. Interesting point James, which I think refers to my 38. Yes, I had overlooked the possible sleazy Rezko link and Hillary is understandably playing it up. Apparently Obama nearly lost control when he was questioned about it recently.
38. Quite so! but…
44. Actually I am quite proud of our stirring martial past. Basically every tribe, sect, race, nation, state in history (until the very recent past) has tried to conquer everyone around them.
This is the human condition. Trying to moralise it, after the event, with bien pensant ethics is ludicrous.
The fact is the British are just better at fighting than almost anyone else. If the Irish had been larger in numbers and slightly less disorganised you can be damn sure they’d have been invading us and making us speak Gaelic. Rather than the other way round.
It wasn’t because they were inherently nicer than us, or because we are inherently nastier. We were just bigger harder and tougher. Good.
Being ashamed of our warrior history is like being ashamed of our coastline or something. Stupid. It just is what it is.
What’s more, towards the end we applied our warlike prowess to some rather noble aims: ending the slave trade, defeating Napoleon, scuppering Hitler, and last but not least retrieving the Falklands from a Fascist junta thereby restoring democracy to Argentina.
And our history of rampantly successful imperialism also means I can go round the world talking loudly in English. And be understood almost everywhere. Unlike the French. Heh.
54) They’ve gone with it as the first day of Rezko’s trial co-incided with the day before OH, TX - hard for the hacks NOT to go with such a slam-dunk!
Just a thought.. What happens if HRC actually does better than expected- despite being outspent by Obama? Is this NH all over again and we are back on terms with the delegates? In which case laying Obama might look like a pretty good strategy. Rezko is a bit smelly and it is now not just the Clinton campaign that is bringing it up- the journos are on the case too. Maybe the value lies with HRC…
49. I think you’re right about patriotism. However I’m not sure how proud nationalists such as the BNP actually are of their country. Most of them think it is a cesspool. It’s more hate than love. Just look at Hitler’s destruction of Berlin at the end of the war.
51. I don’t see much evidence to support the assertion that Britain has ‘forgotten’ about the imperial war effort.
But can I imagine why you might want to think that is the case.
57. Its precisely comments like Hodge’s which makes me think exactly the same about your lot
51. The greatest contributions from Australia and India were in containing the Japanese, and from Canada after D-Day onwards. Those noble sacrifices should by no means be played down, but during the period of the Battle of Britain the main assistance from the Empire was financial - although there were a handful of brave Australians in the RAF.
57. And now the roles are reversed..you had 10 more years of Conservative government at that point. God help us all if we still have another 10 years of McBroon to go…
53/54 - He’s only just gone on trial though. If he’s convicted, things could easily get messy. What if he perceives that the way to a pardon or early release is to start mouthing off until somebody makes concessions to silence him for example?
Once again, I am sure there is a very good chance that Obama met the guy a couple of times at functions and there is nothing to it. But he is a donor and I am just making the point that Obama’s campaign isn’t just about dear old grannies giving $50 and campaign finance is a minefield even if, like Obama, you have done relatively well on the smaller donations.
62. The BNP are proud of their low melanin levels far more than they are of their country.
To be patriotic means to trust the people of this country to take charge of their own affairs.
This means that few British politicians are patriotic, terrified as they are to even hand a small amount of power back to the people.
The first step in rebuilding civic pride would come from giving power back to the people, and allow them to build the country they *want* to be proud of.
Living in fear of the people is a Labour speciality.
57. Jonathon. That was brilliant! It’s interesting to compare the chilling sequence from Cabaret with the similar sequence from Casablanca.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iYbEPZVVIA&feature=related
62. I agree with your analysis, the far right tend to hark back to supposedly “better times” like the 1950’s or golden age’s which never really existed. Generally they are just unpleasant.
Which is why the mainstream need to ensure that patriotism and the flag are maintream culture and not the preserves of the extreme parties which is what we were in danger of. Things like the Proms ensure that the Union Flag is a mainstream symbol of national pride and collectivity. thats why Hodge’s comments are so perverse.
‘The fact is the British are just better at fighting than almost anyone else’
Something really to be proud of. There’s something severely wrong with you.
67. I think the Obama the idealist image somewhat obscures the fact that the guy is an extremely clever tactician. Everything I’ve researched about the guy suggests he had lofty political ambitions from a young age and his beginning of political life has been recent enough that he would have been aware of the effect of a single past dealing can produce.
That he ever had any property dealings was the man speaks to his naivety of appareances at the time, but I simply don’t believe the guy would have been foolish enough to have done something actually illegal. Even when you put that factor to one side, there’s nothing in this property deal which I could see an illegal side to.
64/66 Well that’s what a democracy is for. We’ll meet on the hustings and may the best man win. In ‘87 the Tories were virtually omnipotent, but their comeuppance was just around the corner and they fell eventually. But for now, let’s be friends and enjoy the clip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEfcbBtypi4
65. My Grandfather also had Canadians and Poles in his Spitfire squadron in 1941..I dont think the Empire’s contribution is forgotten either…but I think its right that we are reminded now and then…(Dear God I am beginning to sound like Gordon Brown!!!)
To echo most sensible comment from all sides on here, we simply cannot judge decisions made by our ancestors even as recently as 60 years ago, by today’s standards. Our entire outlook, morality and attitude to life and the living has developed because as a nation we went experienced all of the events that shaped our history and we learnt from them.
73. yeah, just ten years around the corner.
69. I agree that this Labour government presides over a hideously over-centralized country.
But exactly how did Mrs. T. give power back to the people, or allow them ‘to build the country they *want* to be proud of’?
Too many Tories seem to be airbrushing decades of recent Tory government in order to present themselves as libertarian, localist types, when in fact their party is nothing of the sort.
And please don’t bring this back to the Lisbon Treaty.
Back on topic, what if Obama’s fundraising has stalled somewhat and whilst they have exceeded Hillary’s 35million they have only hit 38-40?
65 - Don’t underestimate the economic and logistical support in the early stages though. I mean, 99.9% of British people weren’t directly involved in the Battle of Britain. The support of most of our grandparents to that enterprise was moral and economic. And although it wasn’t their shores under attack at that stage, it was effectively for much of the Empire as many would simply have fallen with Britain (not Canada/Australasia - at least not immediately - but much of the rest).
70 Roger thanks so much for that. Casablanca is amazing, especially when you consider France wasn’t liberated when it was released. So much soul, it really moves you.
If anyone is worried about the betfair rules then Intrade is running a market on the Texas primary only.
Mike, why am I in moderation?
51 in 1939 Britain was the British Empire for many of its subjects.
The British 8th Army was in many ways typical being composed of the 7th Armoured Division, 1st Army Tank Brigade & 22nd Guard Brigade (UK) the South African 1st Infantry (2nd until it was captured at Tobruk), 4th Indian Division, 2nd New Zealand Division and the Tobruk Garrison (70th Infantry UK and Carpathian Brigade Poland)
77 - I think they would then have announced it at the same time. Hillary could hardly have said it was a bad news story for Obama as it would still have been more than her. This way they trump her news story by letting it be known they have beaten her, then get another sating they have doubled it (or whatever).
76. Why not? You are implying the Lib Dems are ‘genuinely’ localist when in fact they support massive centralisation via the growth of EU power.
We all saw how serious Lib Dem commitment to localism is during Clegg’s embarassing interview about ‘Town Hall Meetings’ - you know, the ones that won’t be allowed to talk about anything he deems inappropriate.
That’s an interesting point about at least some of the people who support the BNP. They detest not only their country as it is now, but also are deeply ashamed of our role in WWI and (especially) WWII. Admittedly, not all of them think like that.
75 By comeuppance I meant the Lawson boom&bust, the poll tax riots, the fall of Thatcher and the arrival of Mr Embarrassment himself John underpants Major. All within three years of a virtually unassailable position.
85. yep, but still managed to struggle on until 1997. Even with all those problems it would still take years for the british public to kick them out, odd that, seeing as many people still go on about hating Thatcher. In the end, she never lost an election.
86 The long slow death was more painful and damaging to the Tories than a swift election loss in 92. People loved or hated Thatcher, but were rarely ambivalent.
79. It does but I wonder whether Germans are moved by the clip at 52? Like you I was moved by the Casablanca clip but remember when I first saw the scene in ‘Cabaret’ finding it one of the most chilling pieces of film-in it’s context-that I’d seen.
74. My grandfather was one of the hundreds of Polish pilots who fought in the Battle of Britain. Something which seems to have been forgotten by the editors of The Mail and Express in their constant Pole-bashing.
85. Well why I agree that Major was a bit of an embarrassment but at least he won both a leadership election and a general election legitimising his position as Prime Minister..Your own party’s embarrassment cannot claim either achievement and there is a very good possibility he never will.
76. 83. I agree that Thatcher’s leadership was pretty centralist. I do think that John Major wanted to restore powers to the people, but was too politically weak and distracted to actually go about doing it. Nevertheless, I consider the Conservatives to be the most genuinely localist party these days, considering the Lib Dems views on centralising power to an undemocratic EU.
88 It is one of the most powerful pieces of cinema.
89 You should be very proud. My grandfather was one of British troops that liberated Belsen. As you might imagine it has shaped my families view on the war and poltics. The Richard Dimbleby clip shows how lucky we are.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/4445811.stm
74. Yes, the Poles should rightly take their fair share of credit for the Battle of Britain. I think one people that do get overlooked is the Irish, who came over in their millions to volunteer for the British army, despite the contemptible stance of their government.
@76, 83, 91:
Thatcher was no more patriotic than Brown is. Neither of them trusted the British people to govern their own affairs, which to me explicitly negates any claim either of them had to being true patriots.
Nevertheless, Tories have a more instinctive feel of the need for a smaller centre, and trusting people to take charge of their own existence. It can certainly be argued that Thatcher was a special case, because she inherited a moribund country, and needed to jumpstart it from the centre.
That’s happened, unfortunately her heirs never started to return the power to the people that most Tories instinctively think is the British birthright.
We can argue about why Thatcher’s children didn’t follow through (Major’s need to hold his fragile coalition together, Blair’s ego, Brown’s cowardice), but their time is over.
The new localist agenda’s time has come, and that and only that can truly make people proud to be British again- and it starts with being proud of their street, their neighbourhood, their town, their county. One step at a time.
Meanwhile III …. James Joyner of ‘Outside the Beltway’ predicts a Clinton win in Ohio by 5 points and a narrow delegate win for Obama in Texas :
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/03/texas_and_ohio_primary_predictions/
93. in their millions?
Question - Hills and other bookies have books open on the Texas priamry. Are they being settled on primary popular vote or caucus votes or delegates or a combination of the above?
93. No - the number of volunteers from south of the border was about 70000. And the reason they have been forgotten is precisely because of the contemptible stance of their government.
http://www.reform.org/TheReformMovement_files/article_files/articles/war.htm
92. Who do you hold responsible for the condition of the inmates of Bergen-Belsen, apart from the British and Americans?
94. “Tories have a more instinctive feel of the need for a smaller centre, and trusting people to take charge of their own existence.”
In other words, “You can get it if you really want.”
This is where the dividing line between Tories and Liberals lies. Conservatives want a smaller state, full stop, so that businesses and private citizens can do what they want with what they have. Liberals believe in the need for the state to redistribute resources, without which many people cannot take charge of their own existence; and are much more focussed on making the state responsive to local citizens and communities through decentralization.
Which is the true localism? You pays your money and you takes your choice. But a localism that doesn’t take account of the economic and social circumstances in which many Britons live, seems to me an unnecessarily limited form of empowerment.
94
Centralism was brought in largely because Liverpool and other cities were run by nutters who were determined to raise business rates and to hell with the consequences.. indirectly leading to the Poll Tax..
Personally I have no problem with decentralising leading to the economic collpase of (say) Sunderland or Liverpool or parts of London… cos it means politicians become repsonsible again…
But will people accept that?
96. I meant thousands. God knows why I said millions.
93. What was precisely “the contemptible stance of their government”?
103. to stay neutral, then accept a few nazi war criminals as residents after the war.
A good summing up of Hillary’s current surge:
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/03/late_surge_in_polls_by_clinton.html
Good lord. Is that not one of the most nauseating sentences you have ever read?
Dear Barack, I believe in the politics of hope.
I’m going to vomit.
99 - Care to explain that one?
@Jack Peterson:
It’s the difference between “Yes We Can” and “Yes You Can”. It’s a subtle question as to which is best, but the former, for all Obama’s charm, still carries the subtle hint of “Daddy knows best”.
Politicians don’t always know best, but thinking they do is what has landed this country in the stink in the first place.
99 Not sure quite what you’re getting at - you sound provocative - but to answer your question I think Kramer et al. were found responsible for the conditions at Belsen.
http://www.stephen-stratford.co.uk/belsen_defendents.htm
104. So, you would apply the same criteria to Sweden, Switzerland, Portugal, Spain and any other country which remained neutral, including the US up to 1941, presumably?
110. I didnt make the statement, just put it in context. and as for the war criminals bit, yes i do.
110. I do, yes.
109. How convenient.
In a March 1, 1945, letter to Gruppenführer Richard Glücks, head of the SS camp administration agency, Commandant Kramer reported in detail on the catastrophic situation in the Bergen-Belsen, and pleaded for help:
“If I had sufficient sleeping accommodation at my disposal, then the accommodation of the detainees who have already arrived and of those still to come would appear more possible. In addition to this question a spotted fever and typhus epidemic has now begun, which increases in extent every day. The daily mortality rate, which was still in the region of 60-70 at the beginning of February, has in the meantime attained a daily average of 250-300 and will increase still further in view of the conditions which at present prevail.
Supply. When I took over the camp, winter supplies for 1500 internees had been indented for; some had been received, but the greater part had not been delivered. This failure was due not only to difficulties of transport, but also to the fact that practically nothing is available in this area and all must be brought from outside the area …
For the last four days there has been no delivery [of food] from Hannover owing to interrupted communications, and I shall be compelled, if this state of affairs prevails till the end of the week, to fetch bread also by means of truck from Hannover. The trucks allotted to the local unit are in no way adequate for this work, and I am compelled to ask for at least three to four trucks and five to six trailers. When I once have here a means of towing then I can send out the trailers into the surrounding area … The supply question must, without fail, be cleared up in the next few days. I ask you, Gruppenführer, for an allocation of transport …
State of Health. The incidence of disease is very high here in proportion to the number of detainees. When you interviewed me on Dec. 1, 1944, at Oranienburg, you told me that Bergen-Belsen was to serve as a sick camp for all concentration camps in north Germany. The number of sick has greatly increased, particularly on account of the transports of detainees that have arrived from the East in recent times — these transports have sometimes spent eight or fourteen days in open trucks …
The fight against spotted fever is made extremely difficult by the lack of means of disinfection. Due to constant use, the hot-air delousing machine is now in bad working order and sometimes fails for several days …
A catastrophe is taking place for which no one wishes to assume responsibility … Gruppenführer, I can assure you that from this end everything will be done to overcome the present crisis …
I am now asking you for your assistance as it lies in your power. In addition to the above-mentioned points I need here, before everything, accommodation facilities, beds, blankets, eating utensils — all for about 20,000 internees … I implore your help in overcoming this situation.”
52. Haha - I’m not biting!
If your limited intellectual abilities prevent you from drawing a distinction between jovial patriots who like to proclaim their love for their country and Nazism, then that reflects worse on you than it does me!
Poor old Wodger
110. Not hard in the case of fascist Spain and Portugal, nor money-grubbing Sweden and Switzerland - though the geography and traditions of the latter provide at least some excuse.
As for the US, they were late, but at least in earnest.
Personally the pathetic, cowardly collapse and collaboration of France annoys me far more than the neutrals though.
112 - You can’t compare the stances of different countries in such a simplistic way. Admirable though the British stance was, our position was at least defensible albeit at significant cost, in that we had the personnel (including from the Empire), finances, and a major natural barrier to defend in the form of the Channel. Had Sweden, say, taken a similar stand it would have been suicidal.
115 - The surrender of 3 million troops in one of the world’s most powerful countries in 6 weeks really does take the biscuit.
Betfair say on their website that the market is on the ‘Texas PRIMARY’
Which Democratic candidate will win the named Presidential Primary? This market will be turned in-play at the stated time. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed and users are responsible for their own positions. ALL BETS STAND RUN OR NOT. Users should be aware they are NOT allowed to bet on this event if they are physically present in Austria or Germany.
IMHO since they have continually emphasised the word primary they could be in some serious hot water if they include caucus results .
113 Not sure why your making this point.
I am simply proud of a 24 year old man sent to fight for his country, who was forever damaged by the appalling sights he witnessed first hand. I am not interested in blame. I only brought it up, because up thread people asked what are you proud of and I thought of him. Sorry if that offends you.
99 The people who put them there.
103 To refuse to give any credit to those who volunteered. Given the state of Irish air defences (non-existent) staying neutral was the wise course of action.
117. And how long do you think Ireland might have lasted, had it become a belligerent? Its “airforce” in 1939 consisted of one spotter plane, its tank force consisted of a few Austin Sevens dressed as “armoured cars”, its navy a few fishing-smacks. Irish “neutrality” may in fact have saved England’s bacon…
Aargh, this site is turning into http://www.worldwartwodebate.com again. But thanks to socrates for his brilliant definitions at 49, and Jonathan and Roger for reminding us of that Casablanca scene.
24: I’ll take your bet on behalf of the Broxtowe cats if you like, Mark? They’ve not had a flutter lately, and are queasily eyeing the Boris surge… Accept by this evbening 10pm to make it definite!
PS Assume that if she does it in more than one state the cats also win - you’re not “saying one and only one”?
I notice that WillHill has Texas up. Has anybody checked how they define a win? If it is delegates, their 4/6 on Obama looks attractive.
117? Weren’t many French people waiting for their failing Republic to collapse? Perhaps they weren’t as united behind their government as the Brits?
As for SeanT’s pointa bout Brits being good fighters I’m not sure i agree. Well organised, disciplined and technologically advanced is how I tend to see it. I think man to man, the Japanese were better fighters than us during WW2.
120. Do you honestly think that if the war situation had been exactly reversed, the inmates of the internment camps in Britain would have fared any better?
113. You obviously missed Rod’s.. err…’interesting’ views on the holocaust onm a previous thread.
126 - That comment is a (truly awful) joke right?
126: We had interment camps in Britain, and the death toll in them was below the statistical average.
The Swedes were in a difficult postion certainly! They did however have a strange interpertation of the term neutrality. On the 18th of June 1940 they gave the Germans permission to use the Swedish Railways to transport German munitions to the Norwegian front. German soldiers were also allowed to travel across Sweden to go on leave to Germany.
The most noteworthy concession was the transport of the, ‘Engelbrecht Division’ from Norway to Finland on the 22nd of June 1941, to assist in ‘Barbarossa’
The Norwegians have never really forgiven them.
Disappointed that Nick Palmer didn’t offer any defence of Margaret Hodge, in the wake of David Cameron’s OTT reaction.
I think we need to move on. Apologies for my part in opening old wounds.
This is clearly the lull before today’s real excitement. To change the topic and to probe the wisdom of crowds.
Will Hillary still be in the race this weekend? Yes or No?
She’ll be half-in until Pennsylvania, but nobody will really believe she’s trying any more, least of all her.
120, 121. The Irish state may well have taken a heck of a beating from German bombers, but the many, many more troops they could have provided could have been invaluable to the early war effort. When faced with the prospect of a brutal, expansive regime threatening to become the hegemon of Europe every country should have fought on the side of liberty, especially democratic ones.
131 - That’s because she is indefensible. Trying to make out that the Proms are elitist or exclusive would be risible coming from anyone else. From the Minister for Culture it is disgraceful.
128. Starvation and disease are quite apolitical.
127. Lot’s of people have interesting views on many subjects, including what is known as the holocaust. Apparently, the Israelis think a holocaust can be exported to the Palestinians. You are of course free to “deny” or “minimize” this holocaust, or place it in its proper context. After all its a free country, isn’t it?
Paging Mr Godwin.
126 It’s always hard to answer hypotheticals, but I suspect the answer is “yes.” At any rate, they would have fared no worse than the UK population as a whole. Our internees were, after all, expected to emerge alive from internment. The Nazis’ internees weren’t.
132. Regrettably, yes. I’m hoping for an Obama win as soon as possible, but Clinton’s support is oddly resilient and she will probably take at least one of Ohio and Texas.
If Clinton can take more delegates than Obama tonight - i.e. close the delegate gap at all - then I think she’ll claim a victory and a change of momentum. It’s slippery tactics, but she has enough votes out there to stay in the game until someone - Bill, Howard Dean, or the superdelegates - tells here to get out of there and let Obama take on McCain.
136: As the Palestinian population increases annually it’s a rather ineffectual ‘holocaust’.
129. Quite true, but I said “if the war situation had been exactly reversed”, meaning the near-total destruction of supply and communication lines, combined with millions of fleeing refugees in state that was disintegrating.
136. Thank you Rod for confirming that you believe the Israeli actions of today are somehow equivalent to the Nazi extermination campaigns of WWII - something you hinted at before.
Readers may draw their own conclusions about your motivations for holding this view, I’ve certainly drawn mine.
136 - No the Israeli General said shoah meaning disaster, not Hashoah meaning holocaust.
138. “At any rate, they would have fared no worse than the UK population as a whole..” Precisely. I rest my case. Do you know how many German civilians died of starvation and disease, not just in the final months of the war, but in the 5 years after it ended?
141 People didn’t just die in Belsen, Auschwitz etc. in the final weeks of the war, as supplies and communications broke down. People were sent there to be put to death in a variety of ways.
Interesting remarks by Karl Rove here who is suggesting the longer the Clinton/Obama struggle goes on the better it is for the Democrats and that the final selection of their candidate at their convention will ensure the Democrats get all the media attention until August and thereby diminishing the impact of McCain’s campaign? Presumably he is a republican troll?!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,334768,00.html
136. You should be allowed to advocate whatever views you want. But other people should be allowed to ridicule the ridiculous ones.
136 you are intelligent enough to know that this was a mistranslation of the Hebrew by PA. It is not the fault of Israeli ministers if people can’t translate their words correctly. Of course “anti zionist” anti-semitism is OK on the left.
People can take different views on the whole Palestinian issue (some might wonder to what extent you have to allow people to fire rockets at you indiscrminately without acting and others might wonder why a wealthy country doesn’t seek to promote economic development in its poorer neighbour and thus benefit all and reduce the tension between them).
See 145. The inhabitants of the camps fared very much worse than the German population as a whole.
141 - Perhaps, but the (rather important) distinction is that we didn’t send people to them just for being Jewish or part of any other minority group (gays, gypsies, blacks etc)
We should remind ourselves that nearly 40,000 Irish citizens served in the UK forces, that includes 7,000 who deserted from the Irish armed forces.
However de Valera would not, (despite enormous coercion) join the allies. Even when economic sanctions (disguised as shortages) were taken against the Irish, which led to severe rationing, de Valera would not budge.
The Americans in particular were furious, particularly as they felt, Ireland would never have gained independence without their support.
Sad but inevitable to see some of our regular Labour posters revealing their deeply-felt anti-British motivations. I’ve never understood how anyone born and brought up in this country could fail to be patriotic, given our wonderful history.
It must be some psychological quirk.
135. I don’t think Margaret Hodge is indefensible, she’s just a very inept politician. Whether she’s antagonising the right with these witless and banal prom remarks, or annoying the left with that idiotic BNP crap, she just can’t help putting her expensively-shod foot in it.
The mystery is why is she still in power? Indeed why does someone as inane and pointless as Hodge even get a sniff of a ministerial job? I’m sure our own Nick Palmer could do a lot better, and I mean that sincerely even as I despise his politics. At least Nick is logical.
Nor is she alone in her bizarrely talentless success. Alistair Darling? Hazel Blears? From which polluted river of mediocrity do Labour dredge these people?
145. Indeed, and the records of such extermination tactics were recorded with stringent accuracy. The Holocaust is the most documented genocide in history by its own perpetrators.
Well, maybe this is turning into worldwar2.com, but I think if you look at the whole thread it is clear that SeanT started it and I merely retaliated.
Was Hi-de-Hi an accurate portrayal of life in an internment camp?
152. Has anyone been anti-british on this thread?
Left-wingers such as myself and Jonathan have remarked on our sense of pride for being British. Could you give me the post numbers?
What are the odds on WWII?
144. Rod - out of interest do you think Julius Streicher was a ‘martyr’, as well?
134 - I always find it strange when English people (it is usually, but not always, English people) express surprise that the Irish government should not have laid down its newly won independence in defence of the country it had to fight against to win that independence less than 20 years earlier. It was most obviously expressed by Churchill’s VE day speech when he said that the UK showed “considerable restraint” by not invading Ireland - as De Valera (not someone I have a lot of time for personally) said in reply, what was the point in fighting a war on the side of liberty and democracy if you would be happy to invade an inoffensive neighbour for no reason other than your own need?
157. You what? I started what?? Come again mate? Are you starting? Are you? Yeah? Do you want some? Do you? Well, do you?
Outside!!
Etc etc.
122/123 Okay Nick, you’re on - if in any one (or more) of Texas, Vermont, Ohio or Rhode Island, Hillary Clinton wins a majority of delegates - then the Nuthall cats get a tenner. If she doesn’t achieve it any of the four, then you send £20 to the Babbington dog rescue.
One of my more philanthropic offerings to the cats, I fear, but it will give me some incentive to stay the distance tonight!
162. Did not De Valera express condolences for the death of Hitler? By that time Germany was beaten. Why did he do that?
There were some very unsavoury elements in Irish nationalism. Indeed there still are.
157, 163 - Oi - knock it off with the WWII stuff - or the Fat Man here will drop in and settle it, once and for all….
162. The Second World War was not simply for Britain’s own need. It was a fight for rule of law and freedom and against totalitarianism and genocide. If the Irish government cared about any people beyond its borders it should have joined the war effort.
Plus the idea that the British occupation of Ireland, wrong as it was, can be comparable to the sheer evil of the Nazi regime is inexcusable.
165 - He did, I have no idea why he did really did (I’ve read the conflicting theories). It was hardly the worst of his actions either during, before or after the war.
I think you’ll find that there are very unsavoury elements in all types of nationalism. Irish nationalism is no different.
If the Irish government cared about any people beyond its borders it should have joined the war effort
they didn’t.
109 John Kellet “99 Care to explain that one”
It was merely the same question that Jan from Norway asked. I didn’t know how Hills were defining “winning” the Texas primary/caucus.
Rod, on another thread you denied the Holocaust and gas chambers. You are a sickening anti-semite and you disgust me.
Rod Crosby is a very strange gentleman. However he has been quite accurate in his analyses and predictions of the US primaries.
Not quite sure how to square those two facts.
Hope that tonight’s Elitebetting event is a great success for all those involved.
O/T Peter Hoskins at the Coffeehouseblog has an article reporting that the Government looks set on keeping the Rock debt off the public balance sheet. Cooking the books.
167 - You can put whatever spin upon it you want to - but I’ll think you’ll find that most countries in most cases took whatever decisions most suited their own national interests at any given time. And who is comparing British occupation of Ireland to the Nazis?!
I take it everyone has read the Evening Standard front page on Lee Jasper’s ’sexually charged’ emails.
He is really is in deep dark brown now.
172. It’s all part of his masterplan
174. De Valera implied it.
170 - Ah I think some modding has been going on and the post numbers have changed - my comment at 109 refers to what is now #101
168. “De Valera did [express condolences on Hitler's death], and I have no idea why he really did that”
How about: he was an ultra-Catholic nationalist with Fascist sympathies? That seems to cover all the bases quite neatly.
177 - I must have missed that post.
177…and interestingly his government censored the early reports on the Nazi death camps as well. I wonder why?
I think people’s worst instincts are most exposed during war - particularly our propensity for selfishness. In the end the British stance during WW2 was one of self-preservation. We did virtually nothing to try and save Poland, the Holocaust was not the motivation for action and we only invaded Europe when the Nazis were on their last legs. Noble enough, but we shouldn’t mythologise it.
179 - That would be an explanation about on a par with the typical standard of your analysis on this site.
150. We sent them there for being “enemy aliens”, and a high proportion of those, were in fact, Jewish….
143. Well, there was a Hollywood TV series called “Shoah”, just as ther was a Hollwood TV series called “Holocaust.” I seem to recall they both dealt with the same subject matter…
147. as Schopenauer said: “All Truth passes through three stages. Firstly, it is ridicled. Secondly, it is violently opposed. Finally, it is accepted as self-evident”
Socrates taught his students that the pursuit of truth can only begin once they start to question and analyze every belief that they ever held dear. If a certain belief passes the tests of evidence, deduction, and logic, it should be kept. If it doesn’t, the belief should not only be discarded, but the thinker must also then question why he was led to believe the erroneous information in the first place…
Unsurpringly, Socrates was condemned for “subversion” and as a “corrupter of youth”…
I am Socrates, and you, sir, are a fraud!
Obama has “50 Superdelegates waiting to endorse”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/4/10402/50272/310/468529
End game.
153 Coldstone. We should remind ourselves that nearly 40,000 Irish citizens served in the UK forces, that includes 7,000 who deserted from the Irish armed forces.
Indeed. I posted the following link the other day when JH mentioned his granddad being a spitfire pilot. This young Irishman was only 19 during the Battle of Britain..
http://www.bbm.org.uk/as-finucane.htm
179. There was and remains a definite fascist-like element at the wilder fringes of Irish nationalism, especially the insistence on the necessity - and indeed the nobility - of bloodshed in the name of the ’cause’.
Unbelievable…. Benedict Brogan on Clegg pleads with Tories.
189 I hope in reply, Cameron has sent a letter to each LibDem, offering them a nice warm new home….full of sunshine.
184 - “All Truth passes through three stages. Firstly, it is ridicled.”
Of course, all utter lobblocks also goes through this phase and generally stops there. And that, Mr Crosby, is likely to be the fate of your pet theory, I am glad to say.
Clegg is buried in a mess of his own making over Lisbon, and it’s funny to let him stumble about chaotically.
The thing is, the LDs and the Tories could have come to an agreement on a two question referendum, but the fact is that neither little Cleggy or Dave have at this stage any real desire for a referendum.
It would force them both onto the record with a coherent EU policy, something which scares the willies out of them both.
And as a result, Brown gets an easy ride, and the Treaty of Lisbon escapes proper scrutiny. For shame.
188. Hilarious - he’s really lost the plot completely. It must be very embarassing to be a Lib Dem at present. Second useless leader in a row.
184. Just because certain truths have historically been ridiculed, doesn’t mean any belief that is ridiculed is a truth.
They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Darwin, but they also laughed at BOZO THE CLOWN.
It’s curious that every person that claims there is a cover up about the Holocaust seems to have highly questionable racial views themselves.
183. Well, Neil, let’s parse my statement. I say De Valera was possibly an ultra-Catholic Nationalist with Fascist sympathies. You believe I am off my rocker.
Let’s go through the facts. I say:
1. De Valera was ultra-Catholic. I don’t think anyone would deny this. He incorporated Catholicism into the new Irish Constitution.
2. He was Nationalist. Again, hardly in dispute. Or maybe he was secretly a British spy?
3. He had Fascist sympathies. Well, he signed a book of condolences on the death of Adolf Hitler; as far as I know he was the only neutral leader in the world to do so. Seems pretty sympathetic to me.
Do point out where I have gone mad.
193. Yes, funny that, isn’t it?
184. I think your groupings of “us” and “them” in your first sentence is highly telling also.
189. I thought that this bit was particularly priceless in its cheek!
“I believe strongly that Britain should be a full, active member of the EU. Many Conservatives disagree with this. Surely it is right that this is the debate that engages the British people through a referendum, not the technicalities of a minor revising Treaty.”
Does anyone have any idea what could be prompting people to back Al Gore for the Presidency? p76 of the Racing Post today details a £2k bet on him at 50s. We’ve seen a couple of people nibble at him today at 100/1 after we re-introduced him to the betting.
I guess we could all dream up a scenario where the party has to turn to him if the other campaigns implode or some fantasy brokered conference picks him. You wouldn’t bet on it though, would you?
194 - “Do point out where I have gone mad.”
Not so much mad (though I cant say for sure that you’re not) as circular reasoning, SeanT. Here’s that you’ve done:
(a) De Valera signed the book because he has facist sympathies
(b) We know he has facist sympathies because he signed the book
(c) He signed the book because he had facist sympathies
er, repeated ad infinitum
Do you see your mistake?
@ChrisD/189
Implicit in Cleggy’s rather silly letter is the implication that there is only one true way for the EU to be, and it’s his way. And the people of Britain are being silly if they dare think otherwise.
The LD’s self-destructive behaviour over Europe is marvellous.
198 - Maybe if he got picked as Obama’s running mate, and Obama then fell under the proverbial between the election and inauguration??
198 - Either candidate chooses him as VP and then gets shot? (More likely to happen to Obama I’d have thought - still wouldn’t bet on it)
201. I’d want a lot bigger than 100/1 tbh.
179. “De Valera did [express condolences on Hitler’s death], and I have no idea why he really did that”
De Valera did it for three reasons.
i) it was the diplomatically correct thing to do. The US expressed condolences on the death of Stalin in 1953. Stalin too was a “mass-murderer”, and there was in fact a cold-war going on at the time between the US and USSR. Presumably by the same logic applied to De Valera, Eisenhower must have been a Communist and a traitor, and a supporter of mass-murder….
ii) it was an “assertion” of Irish sovereignty. The Second World War was supposedly fought for the independence of small nations. De Valera believed that too.
iii) the German Ambassador in Dublin, Edouard Hempel, was not a Nazi, and had behaved impeccably throughout the War. De Valera felt it was ungentlemanly to kick a man while he was down. A coward would have done so, but not an Irishman.
171. you didn’t happen to study under Pavlov, by any chance?
198 I’d expect Hillary’sprice to start easing as this story that Obama has 50 superdelegates waiting to announce for him gets wider circulation. May be today or tomorrow, and looks like a long-term game-plan designed to cut off Hillary even if she has a good night tonight (as was expected even two weeks ago). She only had a 47 lead in supers last I heard - so even if none of the 50 have previously declared for her, she’d go into a deficit on the one area she could still point to a lead. No coming back from that.
188. Why unbelievable? Nothing wrong with politicians of different parties seeking consensus. As it happens it’s also a good letter and ‘pleading’ is a misleading description.
@201:
Given the historical parallels, the chances of Obama coming face to face with a high-speed projectile can’t entirely be ruled out.
Thinking about it, the chances of the next POTUS dying in office much be far higher than they’ve been in a long while. Is anybody doing odds on it?
PB Special Feature?
205 When I said Hillary had a lead of 47 superdelegates - make that 46. Another just declared for Obama:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGgBWr
ChrisD - this is of course a minor revising Treaty which the Lib Dems own leader, and traitor in the European Parliament, Andrew Duff, says is very substantially the same as the European Constitution.
Indeed when the self-confessed traitor Mister Duff is not begging for the “defeat of the English” he says of this “minor, revising Treaty” that it is a “radical change”.
Which is it, guys?
Indeed, when are the Lib Dems gonna sack this quisling Duff? Or, at least, revile his expressed treachery? I wonder how Americans would feel about an American politician who called for the “defeat of the Americans”.
207 - I think it is viewed by bookies as being in somewhat bad taste for a start…..
Gore could also have sneaked through as a healing compromise candidate in a hopelessly deadlocked convention, although that has been unlikely since Edwards withdrew (it could be close, it could be controversial, but deadlock is highly unlikely).
102.
“Conservatives want a smaller state, full stop ”
Which Janet and John book did you read this rubbish in?
While I am sure there are many deluded Conservative supporters who believe that this is what Conservatives believe in, in fact Conservatives just tend to back the status quo (including conservative communists in communist countries) and LOVE the big brother state because it is a comfort blanket to them against the idea that there should be any major upheaval. They (including the Blairite Tories) believe in the oppressive state ensuring there is no redistribution in the same way that some socialists believe in using the oppressive state to do precisely the opposite.
207 - Wouldn’t disagree with you - think that you wont find bets on it directly (from recollection I don’t think you’re allowed to bet on deaths) - would have to go with a ‘Next President’ market and be careful of the wording.
207. I still think I’d rather just back Gore at 12/1 to be the Democratic VP pick. Unless you think there’s less than a 7/1 chance that the nominee will get shot and Gore then wins the General.
LibDem call for in-out referendum rejected by 68 to 471:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7277400.stm
Not quite the numbers there, Nick….
206 - I agree it is not unbelievable, but it is the latest in a series of rather silly contortions that Nicky boy has got into. I can almost hear the gales of laughter as the Conservative recipients file it in the bin. Cameron must think this is his lucky day, not only does he have Hodge shifting votes in his direction. Jasper making Boris’s job easier by the day, now he has Clegg flailing around for a figleaf to cover his and his party’s embarassment.
207. Why is death in office more likely. I know McCain is 72, but are you suggesting other reasons. That certain powerful elements might want to do away with the President - if it’s Obama - or a terrorist attack?
Neil. No, I don’t. De Valera signed a book of condolences for a man who killed millions of people in gas chambers.
By the time Hitler died we had already seen the horrors of Belsen. So had De Valera, presumably. Yet he briskly trotted over to the German legation to “express his condolences” on the death of the Fuhrer.
That’s quite enough evidence for me, ta v much.
Interestingly the Irish word taoiseach was, I believe invented by De Valera. And its meaning is quite close to caudillo, or Duce, or indeed “Fuhrer”.
Rasmussen National Tracker Numbers
Clinton 46 Obama 44
McCain 47 Clinton 46
McCain 47 Obama 44
Fabourables:
McCain 55/43
Obama 51/48
Clinton 49/48
If Clitnon does well tonight it will be interesting to watch and see if these national numbers are repeated by other firms. If Clinton starts doing better v. McCain it may make some Dems nervous.
175
Yes,its just gets worse, an out of control circus and this is just the bit we know about.
Time for people to withdraw payment of their GLA charge rather than have it pissed away by Jaspar.
216. The building up of Obama into a new JFK seems to have no bounds…but surely this is going a bit far
214 - Incorrect, Mark. The vote was by Labour and Tory MPs to reject even having a debate on whether to have such a referendum. Who’s really running scared here? Refusing even to discuss it… oh dear oh dear.
206.But Roger, we did have a consensus among the main parties with the inclusion of a promise of a referendum in each of their manifesto’s. So Clegg’s desperate letter to Tory MP’s is not a noble gesture, but rather a desperate attempt to get himself out of the unnecessary hole he has dug for himself.
216. Stress?
@214:
Hahahaha. Clegg is such a tit.
216 - If it’s McCain as POTUS then he’s got a natural reason to have a higher chance of death in office due to his age. If it’s not McCain, it’s likely to be Obama - who has, some believe, ‘the Kennedy factor’.
@216:
I suspect that McCain is most likely to keel over, and Obama is most likely to be assassinated.
Taken together, the forthcoming POTUS life expectancy must be the lowest it has been for ages. I’m surprised that *nobody* is taking best on it though. Distasteful it may be, but death is an important part of politics.
After all, real change happens not from election to election but from funeral to funeral.
200 et all - I’ll leave your Euro wishful thinking alone other than to state that just because you think it doesn’t make it so. The Lib Dem position is the more popular one and is more robust than the Tory position which will change by the end of the month once the Lisbon Treaty bill is ratified.
What is more interesting is that Sean T has actually got something right - I agree with him on De Valera - whose activities during WW2 were despicable.
@Dan/227:
Do you believe that Clegg *actually wants* a referendum?
217 - I have no doubt that it’s enough evidence for you. As I’ve said already it is up to your normal level of analysis on this site.
“Interestingly the Irish word taoiseach was, I believe invented by De Valera. And its meaning is quite close to caudillo, or Duce, or indeed “Fuhrer”.”
Interesting - but not true. It’s an ancient Irish word predating De Valera by many centuries. But again the unsubtle attempt to link De Valera with fascism is about par for the course for your posts when you get the wind up about something.
There’s lots of stuff to criticise De Valera about both related to his conduct during the war and otherwise - if you do a bit of research on it I’m sure you can do a lot better than signing the book of condolences.
227. When are you planning to get something right, Dan?
I wouldn’t regard De Valera’s brand of Irish nationalism as being fascistic. Fianna Fail was quite typical of European Catholic nationalist parties of that period, similar to the Bavarian Peoples’ Party, or the Spanish CEDA. What they wanted was a clerical state, rather than a corporate state along the lines of Mussolini’s Italy, or the Portugese Novo Estado.
A more authentic fascist was Sean Russell, the leader of the IRA, who drowned in a German submarine.
I’m not sure whether Rod Crosby’s scepticism about Nazi wartime atrocities is (a) just someone arguing a point for the sake of it or (b) indicative of where his sympathies lie.
221. There is such a thing as parliamentary time.
Final projections for the Democratic contests in Ohio and Texas. Hillary is ahead in both.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/04/final-projections-for-ohio-and-texas-d/
227.Whatever.
226 - Yes, death is an important part of politics but it isn’t an important part of betting. Betting is a bit of fun that can make us a few quid (or lose us a few quid in an entertaining way).
If very large bets are placed, it could also be self fulfilling (and would kind of put a few suspiciously early throw-ins in Premiership matches into the shade).
@233:
Based on which, she’ll close Obama’s 150 delegate lead by 6-9.
Ho hum.
231. I’d like to think it was just a bit of intellectual game playing as in (a), but I don’t think it is.
231. “I’m not sure whether Rod Crosby’s scepticism…”
I’m sceptical about everything, Sean, from the moment I get up, to the moment I go to bed. It’s in my genes.
The family motto is “Celeriter Nil Crede”…
Intrade prices holding steady, with Clinton at 80 for Ohio, but Obama 57 for Texas.
Wish I’d taken that 3.5 available on Clinton-Texas last night (was over my exposure limits + too much fancyass wine, so skipped the chance!).
221 This was the very same measure the LibDems flounced out of the Chamber about. And got ritually humilated. So now they have had the vote they wanted - and got ritually humiliated again.
Good going, Boy Clegg. Should have accepted the Speaker’s decision first time round - and saved two ritual humilations.
Did I mention the ritual humi….okay, yes it seems I have already mentioned the ritual humiliation bit.
238 - I think Sean was being kind calling it scepticism. Scepticism involves being doubtful about a position until you have had an opportunity to investigate the matter yourself. As I understand your position, it is simply one of denial.
231 - The irony being that De Valera had to face down and defeat elements like Sean Russell who genuinely were fascist, or at least willing to collaborate with fascists, while now being criticised by people like SeanT for being a fascist sympathiser himself.
241….plus some pretty unconvincing attempts at demonstrating moral equivalence between Nazi activities and those of the wartime Allies and the Israelis.
Strangely enough, the precise mixture one sees in certain kinds of unsavoury publications favoured by neo-Nazis.
238 Given that just about every historian of the Seconnd World War of any repute does accept that atrocities were committed by the Nazis on a gigantic scale, (plainly there are arguments about the numbers of victims, and the precise responsibility) I don’t think there can be much room for scepticism though.
242. Hitler faced down Ernst Rohm as well. So what? Did that make him less Nazi?
241. You are entitled to your prejudices and your ignorance.
“Small is the number of people who see with their eyes and think with their minds.” ~Albert Einstein
Can all the Nazi-botherers take this to the playground please?
You’re jostling the tuckshop queue.
In light of all this dying in office debate (I know it’s morbid, but…) I’ve been looking at some of the conspiracy theories on the net about Robert Kennedy. Interesting reading.
244. It does amuse me when those with ideological leanings for believing an outlying position like to compare the findings based on the scientific method or thorough academic research to pre-1600 beliefs based on scripture.
246. You are entitled to your prejudices and your ignorance.
“Small is the number of people who see with their eyes and think with their minds.” ~Albert Einstein
With delightful irony, ACAS votes to go on strike!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7277855.stm
@Frank Booth/248
If Obama does get assassinated in office, the conspiracy theories would be like none we’d ever seen before.
If we want them to be really outlandish, we should start sowing the seeds of doubt now.
Maybe we could set up a paper trail that proves it was Sean Fear in league with Prince Philip, Bob Geldof and the Celine Dion.
228 - yes. But on constitutional matters - where there is a need to get public endorsement.
The question for Tories here is - what happens if there was a referendum on Lisbon - would every EU revising treaty need a referendum? What about UN treaties? Or changes to local government arrangements? Is there an acceptance that referenda should replace elected representatives as the primary decision making tool? It’s a legitimate if somewhat bizarre position to take.
I don’t expect Harry or Chris D to answer (or ideed to have the intellectual capacity to do so).
231 - I’ve never met a Holocaust denier/skeptic who wasn’t in someway motivated by racial politics, but it is not impossible that someone without an anti-semitic bone in their body could hold doubts. I would hope RodCrosby is the first of these I have ever encountered.
The question is one of judgement. If I discovered incontrovertable proof that ‘only’ 4m people died in the Holocaust, would I publish it? What good would it serve - is the numerical difference really the issue? What purpose would be served by making such proof public? In the name of ‘Truth’ perhaps, though I would be vilified and hated, and lauded only by those I dispise. I don’t know that I would publish.
Then consider that I have less-than-incontrovertable proof - a suspicion, or well-formed hypothesis. Surely that gives even less reason to exclaim the view publically than if I had proof. All I do is open a wound that needs not be re-opened. I’d be happy to leave the denying to those who want to arouse racial tensions - let them attract the ire of our fellow man.
So I am more than prepared, in absence of other statements, to believe that RodCrosby is not an anti-semite, but merely has his doubts about a certain event in history. However, for his sake, I would ask if it is worth his reputation or the friction caused by raising objections, and in the process providing comfort for those (indeed the majority of deniers/skeptics) who deny with motives less seemly.
246. Yes, you, David Irwing and Nick Griffin are the enlightened few, dedicated to empirical evidence absent from ideological biases.
I’m convinced, don’t know about anyone else.
244.
‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone,’ it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.’
[Chapter 6, Through the Looking Glass, by Lewis Carroll]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skepticism
That letter from Clegg is absurd. As Brogan says, desperate, desperate stuff. Clegg needs to stop digging and announce he’s going to allow his members to have a free vote tomorrow.
251 - Spectacular! To borrow from Juvenal, who mediates the mediators?
256 - Hmm if you’re using Humpty Dumpty to back you up then its going to take a lot more than the kings horses and men to put your credibility back together!
184 . Oh right - so a Hollywood TV series is the ultimate authority on the matter then . Excellent logic .
As was said in 145 , the Hebrew word Shoah means “Disaster” . The holocaust is often referred to as Hashoah , which means “The Disaster” . The Israeli who said it should have been more careful in his language - but only because he should have known that mendacious individuals like you would seize on it .
254 Disputing the Holocaust was popular for a time among some French historians in the Seventies, who weren’t anti-semites. I think they regarded as a jolly (if to my mind, extremely tasteless) intellectual game.
Neil, what nonsense. Clearly I don’t think De Valera actually coined an entire new word with taioseach - its an old Gaelic word meaning clan chief, or leader. Right?
But he chose it in the 1937 Constitution. By which time he must have been aware of its conscious echoes of the contemporary and very similar terms: Duce, Caudillo, and Fuhrer.
… Which leads on to seanF’s point. I never said De Valera was a fascist - he wasn’t. I said I suspected he had fascist sympathies. And given that he was leading a rightwing ultra-Catholic Nationalist party in 1930s Europe it would be surprising if he didn’t have such hard-right nclinations.
Moreover, he certainly had fascist underlings. And then there was his attitude to the Jews…
Hey, at least we’re not talking about Europe.
256 - But you aren’t arguing it from the position of a sceptic. You are arguing it from the position of a contrarian and a denialist.
The sceptic’s position would involve suspending judgement, and plainly that isn’t your position.
Final projections for the Republican contests in Texas and Ohio. I’ve included projections for Ron Paul for comedy value. McCain of course should win by a landslide.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/04/final-projections-for-texas-and-ohio-r/
257 It’s an awful letter. Why is Clegg digging this hole for himself? Its embarassing, obvious politicking but manages to sound pleading as well (please kind sirs lend me your vote, I’ll pay you back when I have some of my own)
A little experiment in Social Control..
“Start with a cage containing five monkeys. Inside the cage, hang a banana on a string and place a set of stairs under it. Before long, a monkey will go to the stairs and start to climb towards the bananas. As soon as he touches the stairs, spray all the monkeys with cold water.
After a while, another monkey makes an attempt with the same result – again all the monkeys are sprayed with cold water. This continues until pretty soon whenever another monkey tries to climb the stairs all the other monkeys will try to prevent it.
Now put away the cold water. Remove one of the monkeys from the cage and replace it with a new one. The new monkey will see the banana will attempt to climb the stairs. To his surprise and horror all the of the other monkeys attack him. After another attempt, and attack, he knows that if he climbs the stairs he will be assaulted.
Next remove another of the original five monkeys and replace it with new one. The newcomer takes part in the punishment with enthusiasm! Like wise replace third original monkey with a new one, then a fourth and a fifth. Every time a new monkey takes to the stairs it is attacked. The monkeys that are beating him have no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs or why they are participating in the beating of the newest monkey.
After replacing all the original monkeys none of the remaining monkeys have ever been sprayed with cold water. Nevertheless no monkey ever again approaches the stairs to try for the bananas…”
Recognize yourselves, anyone?
262 He’d have regarded fascism as being less bad than communism, but would have disliked the anti-clericalism of many fascists, but that was a common enough attitude on the right at the time.
With respect to EU and LIBDEMs -whatever you think of their view,I think the fact that there are so many Tories on this site getting so excited will mean that the LIBDEMS have had an increased profile for many days = likely improvement in March polls
@RodCrosby/266
Wait, am I the banana?
262 Agree clearly DeValera was much more as the Spanish Francoist version, traditionalist clerical, rather than the German model.
262 - Sorry SeanT - you did say he invented it and frankly words like Taoiseach or Tánaiste or Ceann Comhairle (all of which he put into the constitution) have zero fascist connotations and it is ridiculous (but typical of you) to try to spin it that way.
You did say he had fascist sympathies. And the only evidence you have given is signing the book of condolence for Hitler (remember that bit of circular reasoning) and the assertion that it would be “surprising” if he didnt have hard-right inclinations.
Excuse me if I need a little more proof than that. Actually, I’m not looking for any proof, there is none, your contention is ridiculous and is simply a bit of grandstanding on here for your amusement. Which is fair enough just dont expect people to be taken in by it.
266.
Let me give you a different example:
Empirical evidence for the earth being older than 6,000 years outweighs evidence for it being 6,000 years old.
Theory that the earth is older than 6,000 years old becomes widely accepted.
Small group believes that the earth is still 6,000 years old as they have a completely irrational reason for doing so.
Recognise yourself?
269 - You are the walrus, Martin. Do keep up.
I think Rod’s difficulty is that he sees us as monkeys who are beating him out of instinct. In fact, we are people who have considered much the same evidence as him and in many cases more and reached an entirely different conclusion. Rod - can you not just accept that people’s radically different conclusions are based on our perfectly legitimate interpretation of the evidence rather than brainwashing?
266. Rod, it is a common habit of those arguing a weak point to rely on allusions and metaphor due to their lack of arguments or evidence.
i find holocaust denial tasteless and intellectually unsound, all the more so for visiting auschwitz-birkenau recently.
i can’t imagine that ‘RodCrosby’ can ever have witnessed any of that stuff? it still gives me flashbacks in nightmares
270 - “262 Agree clearly DeValera was much more as the Spanish Francoist version, traditionalist clerical, rather than the German model.”
Come now - like Franco except, you know, he held elections, didnt outlaw opposition, allowed trade unions to exist, didnt suppress languages or customs etc…
A little balance please. I cant believe I’ve spent the afternoon defending De Valera of all people but some of these claims about him are just ridiculous.
270 In fairness, he was a democrat (from the late Twenties, at any rate) which Franco wasn’t. That’s why I’d bracket Fianna Fail with CEDA, rather than with Franco’s Falange. Fianna Fail certainly sympathised strongly with the nationalists in Spain, but again, that was not untypical of right wing opinion across Europe.
Just had this response from PP about their definition of the Texas winner tonight
Thank you for contacting Paddy Power Customer Support. The winner of the primary will be the delegate with the most votes.
I’ve asked for clarification if this means just the PV?
270. I think that conflation of Nazism and Fascism has been a mistake among the political community, made because they have many overlaps and are on a similar point in the nonsensical left-right spectrum. They actually have very different foundations: Nazism is based around race, almost as a divine concept, and everything (the people, the firms, civil society, religion and the state) should be manipulated and redesigned in order to strengthen the progress of that race. By contrast, Fascism has the state at its pinnacle, and justifies state power as a way of protecting that state’s traditions. Once this difference is recognised, it’s easier to understand why Nazism was so much more genocidal than Fascism. And also why the Nazis were so willing to reinvent Christianity for their own purposes, whereas the Fascist states of Italy, Portugal, Spain and France simply protected traditional hardline versions of Catholicism.
270, Francoist is vastly overstating de Valera’s philosophical support for the far right. De Valera banned the Fascist but non-violent Blueshirts and did not allow, let alone encourage, the sort of routine civic-sponsored violence perpetrated in Spain or Italy.
275 - Disturbing isn’t it? It was bad enough at the start going around the original camp, seeing photographs of the dead, collections of personal effects, the original gas chamber and so on. But it is the later camp with its total anonymity and vast, industrial scale of the enterprise that haunts you even more.
Until seeing Auschwitz I kind of questioned myself why the camp system was deemed necessary by the Nazis to effect the slaughter - but on seeing it you get some sort of grasp on the size and complexity of the logistical operation involved in perpertrating evil on that scale.
The letter to Tory MP’s from Clegg is just bizzare. I fear there is trouble head for the party on this one. I think they are trying to build a EU referendum into a new penny on income tax or opposition to Iraq. A USP that will reach out beyond the LD tribe and be saleable and recognisable.
The problem is it seeks to attract Euro Skeptic voters to the most Euro supportive of party’s.
Why doesn’t legg just come out for a referendum on Hanging? obviously we’d campaign for a No vote but the british people haven’t had a say etc etc
I think any benefit we’ll get from a higher media profile while this is going on will be off set to long term damage to the party’s credibility with political journalists. Its there coverage that wil frame longer term narritives.
I think there is trouble ahead.
Neil. OK, this argument is going nowhere. There is evidence on both sides of this debate, I will accept.
For me it’s a reasonable assumption to say that De Valera had more sympathies with Franco than, say, Stalin, as De Valera was a rightwing ultra-Catholic Nationalist, like Franco.
However De Valera did not openly support Franco. Yet he did have a Nazi ambassador in Berlin. Yet De Valera in the end crushed the Irish Fascist “blueshirts”. Yet De Valera was very hard-hearted about the Jewish problem. Yet he assisted Allied pilots who landed in Eire.
Complex. All these toings and froings are, for me, explicable by De Valera’s difficult position: foremost an Irish nationalist trying to serve his country best, in the face of an ex imperial aggressor demanding assistance, and a nasty regime sweeping across Europe.
All that I can understand. Hence his vacillations.
What I cannot accept, and what takes it beyond the bounds for me, is the fact that AFTER everyone had seen the bestial outrages of Belsen, the walking corpses of the death camps, that De Valera took a brisk stroll across Dublin to the German legation to “sign the book of condolences” for the death of Adolf Hitler.
He didn’t have to do that. Nazism was defunct. There is no excuse. Protocol Schmotocol. It was a grotesque act. And for me that puts De Valera just slightly beyond the pale (ahem) and into the file marked: suspect.
I accept you feel differently. Endex.
283 - There could be the title for your book though - “The De Valera Conspiracy”
Ian Paisley to step down as NI First Minister in May.
175/215 Jasper has resigned
282
Clegg is just doing his best to prove that in the last leadership election, the best man did not win.
Clearly if he has advisers they are on the same ability level as Seb Coe to William Hague. (or perhaps like Margaret Hodge).
He’s doing his best to make the LibDems an object of ridicule….
272. It’s not a different example. It’s the same example, and for the same reasons, no I don’t. The people who believed the nonsense were the persecutors, not the free-thinkers…
275. Well perhaps you also find it “tasteless and intellectually unsound” and ipso facto “holocaust denial” that the post-Communist authorities revised down the Auschwitz death toll from 4 million to 1.5 million in 1990, with no explanation….? A Yes or No will do just fine…
274. I am not arguing any particular point. Allusions and metaphor are a polite way of inviting others think about their own irrationality and pomposity… and their unsupported generalizations, e.g. about allusions and mataphors…
276 I agree on his democratic legacy at a time when nationalism in Europe was often prey to fascism - meant to say that clearly De Valera was much more likely to sympathise externally with clerical nationalism rather than Fascism.
Campaignspot speculating that pollsters failing to sample in Spanish will have a major effect (ie pro-Clinton), as Hispanics are 30% of likely voters.
283 - I have far more problems with De Valera and his legacy than you ever could but I’m still not going to sign up to the assertion that he had fascist sympathies because it’s simply baseless. As I said previously, signing that book of condolences was far from the worst thing he ever did. Very far.
286
Why on earth has he resigned as we are repeatedly told he’s done nothing wrong?
Couldn’t be connected with his appearance tomorrow in front of the GLA?
275 RodCrosby - the Communists also claimed the Nazi’s were responsible for Katyn - Communists were lying propagandists. The fact that they were replaced by Governments who tried to tell the truth doesn’t undermine what more principled authorities have always claimed. It’s quite easy to find the facts and there is overwhelming documentary and eyewitness accounts to bear them out.
285. Well Well Well. Is the Big Man ill? Who to succeed him. It can’t be Junior, so either Robinson or Donaldson, or maybe Dodds ?
285 As Vic and Bob used to say “You wouldn’t let it lie…”
From the BBC website, on the Rev. Paisley’s decision to retire in May:
“While it is expected that his current deputy Peter Robinson will succeed him as party leader, Mr Paisley said it was up to the DUP to make the decision.
“This is not the Church of Rome,” he said.
“This is not Apostolic succession and I have no right to say who will succeed me.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7277886.stm
288 - “Unsupported generalizations”
What, like this one?:
“Do you honestly think that if the war situation had been exactly reversed, the inmates of the internment camps in Britain would have fared any better?”
285 - So long then Ian. Not a real surprise as he’s been on the ropes for a while now. Peter Robinson will surely replace him.
I would say the fact that we can come to no clear details of how many died in the Holocaust makes it all the more scary and abhorrent.
4m, 6m, 10m… ? I can’t see any need to question the standard accepted figure of 6 million Jews. I can’t see questioning the figure achieving anything. So let us stick with it.
The danger of reducing the standard agreed number is that it gets latched onto by those who seek to gloss over the Holocaust as a detail in history.
288. The estimate among free academics in the West was always around 1-1.5 million for Auschwitz, as the historical record shows. The 4m was Soviet government propaganda, who obviously controlled the memorial in a totalitarian state. Far from having no explanation, it was simply the academic view being put in instead of an ideological view.
It’s interesting you’ve posted so much on this issue and then say at the end that you’re not arguing any particular point. That is probably because you know your central beliefs wouldn’t stand up to argument. Why don’t you just admit:
(1) Whether or not you believe some 11 million were executed in German camps.
(2) Whether or not you believe 6 million of those were Jews.
(3) Whether or not you think it was reasonable for the bulk of those people to be killed.
(4) Whether or not you think there is a Jewish conspiracy controlling Western governments.
(5) Whether or not you think the academic communities in Western countries are engaged in a hoax for political ends.
(6) Whether you believe certain races are inferior to others.
Paisley obviously hasn’t heard of Papal Conclaves!
285 - I wouldn’t mind, but new Popes are actually elected by a constituent body, the College of Cardinals, and a Pope has no right to say who will succeed him. All try to influence it by packing the College of Cardinals with clergymen like themself, and almost all end up failing to determine who it will be.
Any other example, the Aga Khan, the Dalai Lama, Fidel Castro, Vladimir Putin, or John Prescott would have worked better, but he just had to have a last pop at the Catholics…
Shock horror, Ian Paisley doesn’t like Catholics.
In other news, bear found crapping in woods.
302 - Does Martin McGuinness go to church - other than for funerals? He and Ian seem to get on very well.
199. should be “German camps and ghettos”.
I quite like Ian Paisley. The bizarre thing is that he’s done more for Irish reconciliation than almost any other Ulster politician. Yet he’s a rabid prod.
Good on yer, big man. Have a nice retirement.
293. “the Communists were lying propagandists..”
True, and…..
“The world will note that the first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, a military base. That was because we wished in this first attack to avoid, insofar as possible, the killing of civilians.” Harry Truman, 1945…
I know Paisley wants to stay an MP and MLA for the time being, but can the life peerage be far away?
Lord Reverend Doctor Paisley of Stormont?
302 - We thought he had changed! Softened with old age perhaps!
The very sight of him used to make my blood boil, but actually, he has done as much as anyone to bring about stability in the last few years, and I can acknowledge that was a remarkable achievement given the length of the battle he fought. I was only joshing at post 301 - he deserves a place in the Lords for when he retires.
It’s a good thing to question received wisdom. But if, after questionning received wisdom, the evidence points overwhelmingly in the direction of the received wisdom, it should be accepted.
As far as I’m concerned, the evidence for the Holocaust is as strong as, say, the evidence for evolution.
309 …or Global Warming.
(Hmmm - maybe shouldn’t go there…)
310. I think the evidence for global warming is extremely strong (above 90% likelihood), but the evidence for evolution and the Holocaust must be at the 99.999% level.
310: Theory (global warming) not fact (Holocaust).
308. As they say, it took Nixon to go to China. It took a committed and militant Loyalist, implicitly trusted by the Ulster protestants, to persuade the Unionist community to make peace with Sinn Fein.
A moderate unionist would not have been trusted enough.
To switch the argument to Europe. It will either take a committed eurosceptic Tory to take Britain into the bEU whole heartedly - i.e. into the euro, Schengen, proper Federalism etc - or it will take a centrist but honest europhile to admit the game’s up, call a referendum, lose the vote: and shift Britain into the semidetachment we all want.
Come in Nick Clegg, this is your chance. Win the election, call your vote, lose the plebiscite, and take us into EFTA!
293-For those red fellow travellers on this site, did you ever deny red terror per 1990? Or did you view it as a necessary evil? (even if, as some have claimed, it was because communism was a noble ideal traduced)
Or, is there no moral equivalency with Nazi terror?
For example, we’ve all heard about Franco, but instead the perpetrators of red terror in Spain in 1936-39 are lionised.
305 - “The bizarre thing is that he’s done more for Irish reconciliation than almost any other Ulster politician.”
Sweet jesus. You can make a case for it being a bad (in fact very bad if policing isnt sorted out) time for him to be replaced by Robinson or Dodds but the fact that we had to wait for Ian to realise he wants his place in history before we had his reluctant support for the GFA is not a recommendation for what the man has done for peace and reconcilliation on the island of Ireland.
On a personal front he seems like a warm, likeable chap. Much more likeable than David Trimble for example. But Trimble will always have his Nobel Peace Prize. And deservedly so.
“For example, we’ve all heard about Franco, but instead the perpetrators of red terror in Spain in 1936-39 are lionised.”
Anthony Beevor’s recent book deals very well with the atrocities committed by each side in the Spanish civil war. Spain had reached a point in 1936 where support for the Right and Left was virtually identical, and where neither regarded an election victory for the other as legitimate.
312. Actually global warming is a fact. The theory is the greenhouse effect. Most nonscientific types don’t understand the difference between fact and theory - it’s nothing to do with likelihood. Facts are statements of evidence. Theories are explanations for those facts, which can be entirely accepted (such as General Relativity) or still highly speculative (M Theory). The theory of the greenhouse effect falls into the former category.
298-I seem to remember when I was at school the usual number given was 4-6m, with a bias to the lower number. I guess more research and access to East European records nailed the numbers? Not that it matters of course…
As for Global warming, I won’t go down that path.
312. No, the holocaust is not quite “fact”, at least not in epistemological terms. (I’m dimly trying to remember my Philosophy degree here*).
*I got a 2:2
“The Holocaust” is a version of events that fits all the available data extremely well - as Sean Fear rightly says, as well as say the Theory of Evolution fits all the data from Biology and Geology etc.
But it is not totally inconceivable that the Holocaust was hoaxed by some devious brood of mad Zionists, who cooked the books and bribed loads of people and somehow magicked away 6 million victims, all to justify, say, the establishment of Israel.
I’d say the chances of this are about 0.00001%, but it is not entirely impossible.
That’s why Holocaust denial laws are stupid. This is not maths. It is history. People are entitled to say the Holocaust is rubbish, cause it is arguable in a very tenuous way; but the vast majority of us are thereby entitled to call them deluded idiots in return, and to suspect their underlying motives for holding such a ludicrous view.
Global warming is much more debatable….
314. If you were a regular to the site you would note I took JohnLoony to task for his denial of the democides that happenned under Stalin and Mao. Why must everything be about left and right? They are such silly labels.
313 In the Times Literary Supplement they review a book which put the credit for ending the Troubles with MI5 and intelligence work but also has a couple of interesting paragraphs on Paisley and Unionism.
Suggestion is that Paisley & Unionism is a resistance movement rather than pro-active politics. “Ulster’s Unionists, whether of Paisley’s variety or other, are oddly uninterested in exercising political power. What they mind about is stopping other people from exercising their power against Unionist interests.”
Completely unrelated to betting I know but what’s Yokel think?
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/the_tls/article3445728.ece
Gilligan 1 Newt 0
Mayor’s aide Jasper quits
Pippa Crerar and Andrew Gilligan
04.03.08
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316-Agree, but we only normally ever hear about the Left as victims.
But that’s a theory not a fact.
311-12: I was just mischief-making!
315 And going to China doesn’t commend Nixon’s general approach to foreign affairs - however, these hardliners (who can do so much harm for much of their careers) *do* represent a hardline constituency, and getting that constituency onboard means having an otherwise-objectionable leader to bring them to the table.
You judge them on whether they bring that group, or persist in hardline factionalism forever - Ian Paisley did the latter, and so I have reviewed my attitude towards him.
Conversely, I don’t like him personally - I far prefer the quiet modesty of Trimble, who really did deserve his shared Nobel Prize, but was apparently was sort of forgotten in the celebrations when the DUP and Sinn Fein finally got Stormont up and running again. Someone saw him having a cup of tea in the Palace of Westminster, as on TV Blair and Ahern, Paisley and McGuinness were attending the opening.
309. The Nazi holocaust is a much more provable fact than evolution, and indeed, much more widely accepted.
322. So it has nothing to do with corruption, abuse of money, improper influence or any other like behaviour - it’s all a sex scandal?
324 - sorry, Paisley did the former.
320-I’m a regular but occasional poster!
322-It really shows how parrochial Birtain still is!! Corruption ok, but sexy emails land you in the soup.
315. You miss my point, as ever. I’m starting to think you a little remedial.
Only a real loyalist like Paisley could have brought the loyalists to this position of power-sharing. Trimble couldn’t do it. Though he was a brave and honourable man, he wasn’t quite trusted enough.
For the same reason, however reluctantly (as a Celtic protestant with innate sympathies for Ulster Unionism) I am forced to accept that Adams and McGuinness seem to have acted with a certain integrity and valour.
Weaker leaders could not have persuaded the IRA to lay down their arms.
And on that note of British religious conflict I am off to watch the Tudors on DVD.
Tomorrow I write the last chapter of my thriller. Ulp.
325
Guido has it about right.
I wonder if PtP still thinks that the ES and Gilligan are cranks with little influence.
http://www.order-order.com/2008/03/jasper-they-are-all-racists-i-resign.html
Margaret Hodge is an idiot.
Clinton is losing touch with reality.
Nick Clegg has screwed this up royally.
Just thought I’d some up my thoughts on 500+ posts in a few little soundbites.
Oh, and Ken Livingstone is toast.
Missed that one.
325 I think you’re correct (I accept the truth of evolutionary theories, but I’m probably slightly less convinced than I am about the Holocuast). Perhaps I should have compared it to, say, the existence of dinosaurs.
322
Yes,but he’s innocent,no case to answer just a conspiracy by right wing racists and more importantly Ken trusts him with his life.
We know that if there had been a hint of corruption our trusted even handed senior policeman Sir Ian Blair would have been on the case,afterall he’s gagging to get Conway.
O/T - I think this is worth a read, apologies if already posted.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/03/clintons_moral_claim.html
Summary:
Both candidates only have a ‘claim’ to the nomination - it will be decided by Super Delegates based on who they think has the stronger claim.
If Hillary wins the popular vote (including votes won in Florida and maybe Michigan), she may be able to pursuade Super Delegates that they should support her, rather than Obama - who will have a Delegate Lead.
Caucuses are perceived as unfair - fewer votes per delegate - and only really done to save money. She won votes in primaries, which aren’t biased against the housebound, or those on active military service.
Even getting across the idea that there are rival ‘claims’ would be good for Hillary - she cannot win (really) on pledged delegates alone, so shifting the focus, and making the Super Delegates feel as though they are arbitrating two rival claims is necessary for her survival.
Should have said 327. WRT Jasper, it’s all the fault of a “racist media campaign” apparently.
New Gallup National Tracker Numbers (Changes on yesterday, Sunday):
Clinton 45 Obama 45
The Obama lead is down 5 points from yesterday and 8 points from Sunday.
328 - I very much got your point but still beg to differ. Having rather more connection to the place my sense was that rather being a “Nixon to China” figure Paisley very much followed his people rather than lead them to final implementation of the peace process. Indeed until his recent change of heart he was a huge drag on efforts to get the unionist community to accept the deal which he eventually decided to work himself. As usual your opinion seems appealing on a superficial level but doesnt seem to me to withstand more detailed scrutiny.
323. Do the Jews really count as “the Left”? Jews come in all political colours in my experience.
334 - It is actually on-topic!
I agree entirely. If Clinton leads the popular vote she will use that to claim a madate and the support of the supers. However she is currently 900,000 behind. To recoup that she needs solid wins tonight and re-runs in Florida and Michigan. Even then it is difficult to see her doing it. But the national trackers are showing she is resilient if nothing else.
336. Rezko and the Canadian memo. I think Clinton could hurt him in Ohio.
Still, she won’t win the nomination.
299. Odd that. I mean considering that Hoess, the commandant said it was a “minimum” of 2.5 million. You would have though that he of all people would have known? Except that his “confession” was extracted under torture and written in English, a language he did not speak…
I do not rise to the hysterical sillyness of answering loaded-questions restricted to binary answers. I can only say that each of your (simplisticly-couched) questions is the subject of mainstream debate, with contributors both Jewish and non-Jewish on each side. If you look past the end of your nose you will easily find them…
298. I refer you to 266. We’d better leave that banana just where it’s at…
296. A question cannot be a generalization. Only statements can be such…
322 I think Gilligan will be kicking himself. He’s played his hand too fast and given Jasper ‘personal’ reason to jump before his grilling at the Assembly tomorrow. What’s Gilligan going to do with all the other Jasper sleaze he’s got but was planning to eke out between now and May. No one will be interested now that Jasper’s gone. Hopefully his piece de resistance was always going to be directly related to Ken and is still valid even with Jasper out of the way.
332, 325. No, this is silly and feeble. The Theory of Evolution has a century of scientific thought behind it; nothing else explains the origin of species, etc.
Has anyone come up with an alternative theory? Does anyone on here doubt an equivalent theory like, say, Relativity? Just because there are some nutters in America or Tehran who doubt it does not make it “debatable”. They are nutters.
The Theory of Evolution is a brilliant insight into the way the universe works. It is almost - almost - unquestionable.
Now what about the Holocaust. Did the Nazis kill millions of Jews? Surely. But do we have lots of written evidence that Hitler intended a Final Solution? Awkwardly, no. We don’t. Not really.
I don’t for one minute doubt that a Holocaust happened, willed by the Nazis, of certain minorities. But there are some valid questions surrounding it. And to say that it is much more “true” than the Theory of Evolution is anyway wrongheaded. A category error.
It’s like saying the Battle of Hastings is more “true” than Euclid’s second law. Silly.
337. I think Paisley held out because he didn’t trust the IRA. And he was right not to. That’s why the loyalist community trusted him more than Trimble. And when he finally acceded, he was then able to bring his people with him. Because he had been proved right before that the IRA were still killers. So his change of heart had more impact.
Your comments have the superficial appeal of an uninterested observer, and you phrase them in suitably lofty tones, but I suspect that you are intrinsically biassed and therefore wrong.
And now I really am off to check the Tudors. Sawadeekaaaaap.
337 - had Ariel Sharon stayed as Israeli PM, he may well have been the strong and reformed Paisley like figure to lead the Israelis to peace with the Palestinians. Olmert cannot do that.
342
Sorry, no, perfect timing. Forced to resign, does not get better than that unless it involves handcuffs and plod. Police are still investigating missing cash.
Gilligan should get an award for this. Top journo.
As Rees points out in his excellent book ‘Auschwitz’, there is a common misconception that the ruthlesness of the death camps was a product of terrible German efficiency, when in fact it was a by-product of it terrible inefficency and short sightedness.
Jews were a political target of hatred - supposedly ‘parasites’ feeding on the German people - a sub species etc…
Yet the way they were treated was a self fulfilling prophesy
They were marginalised, deprived of their businesses and jobs and the means with which to be productive and to support themselves…
Being now unproductive and unable to provide for themselves they were of no use to Germany….
Their homes were useful to the Germanic people returning from the newly occupied territories…..
They were ‘relocated’ and moved out into ghettos with other non German jews who had also been denied the means to support themselves or be productive…..
They were placed in insantitory conditions, with scarse resources and were totally dependent…..
They became a burden on a ruthless regime at war…
So.. they built work camps.
But some were old and ill and couldn’t work or there were not enough places at the camps, jobs etc…
And killing them in large numbers was inefficient and upset our guys…
‘So, the camps can be designed, expanded and we can use them to kill themselves..after all, they are useless dirty….’
Hitler didn’t just get up one morning with a plan. If only all genocidal maniacs were so obvious. Its the insidiuousness which is the warning from history.
Completely off topic, but at least to do with betting, what do people think are the odds Brown would stay as Leader in a hung parliament - I’m considering selling my £20 on Jan-Jun 2009 exit date, but am wondering if betting on Jan-Jun 2009 election date would be a better return (and then betting on Labour to win if that happens). I can’t really see Brown resigning before the election, so…
341. You speak of evidence earlier on. What evidence do you have that Hoess was tortured for confession? What about his (German) memoirs that he wrote after he was already sentenced to death? Why don’t you give the name of one serious debater who thinks the Holocaust never happened, one that doesn’t have extremist right-wing views?
You’re quite entitled to give third way answers if you’re prepared to put your views online. I’m finding it tough to respond to what people on each “side” are, as you are unwilling to define what your side of the argument actually is.
We both know that the reason you don’t want to articulate them is that you actually hold rather vile views on this matter. They are views that won’t stand up to scrutiny, so you poke fun at others rather than attempt to defend your own.
>346
Perhaps you should read..
http://www.holocaust-history.org/hitler-final-solution/
Rod, when in hole, stop digging.
Erm, betting *against* in each case as 347, clearly!
345 - I bet Gilligan has more though - better, juicier stuff that would have dripped out for the next eight weeks.
Jasper hasn’t held his hands up and said ‘guilty’, he’s just gone off stage to avoid the spot light.
It would be good if the Met could get a move on with their enquiries because in the meantime the media focus will turn to Routemaster vs Bendybus.
348. Oh, and Hoess did speak English.
339 - She is 900k behind at the moment. (Florida, she beat him by 300k; in Michigan, she beat Undecided [read Obama] by 900k). Even if FL and MI were re-run, I think she beats him in the popular vote in those states by 600k combined.
Of the remaining states;
Obama wins OR, IN, NC, MT, SD, WY, MS, VT (total congressmen=35)
Clinton wins KY, WV, PA, RI, OH (total congressmen=46)
(Congressmen roughly proportional to population)
I think she could win Texas on Popular vote (but certain to lose on delegates) - let’s call it a draw for now (16 congressmen each)
On population, Clinton takes states accounting for 62 congressional districts v 51 congressional districts for Obama. Each one has 600k people, so 400k voters, so maybe 100k voters who actually vote in the Dem Primary (has ranged from 80k per district to 150k per district in this campaign).
If Clinton wins states with 6.2m democratic voters in the primary, and Obama wins primaries (only WY is a caucus) in states with 5.1m Democratic voters, that helps her.
If we take ‘winning’ to be approximately 55%-45%, Clinton would win 3.575m v 2.625m in ‘her’ states (margin of 900k), whereas Obama’s states would give him a margin of 510k (2.805 v 2.295), it is not difficult to see how she could triumph in the popular vote - in fact, give Obama’s strength in Caucuses, it would make sense that the delegate count flatters his strength in the popular vote.
I know there’s a huge amount of extrapolation here, but it is far from impossible, and leads me to believe she will continue to PA, win that state, and then begin to make a case for ‘Popular Victor’ to the Super Delegates. 6.2 at Betfair looks like value to me.
343. Didn’t Goebbels write a diary entry about Hitler’s order? Isn’t that written evidence?
347 Sky news’ blog was reporting that someone began a fringe meeting at the Spring Conference with the words,
‘if you believe Gordon Brown will led us into the next election, which, for what its worth, I don’t…’
Still, can’t see it myself. They have been castrated. Only Balls still has his thoroughly venemous ambitious b*** on show and in tact. He would have to do a Brutus, something I am sure he is quite capable of, but still, unlikely.
I just cannot see Gordon being willing to be Leader of the Opposition.
352
Sparky you may be right, time will tell. But I suspect now that Lee Grasper has quit, his power and partonage has gone and others will now speak out and AG will be there to welcome them in.
If Newt can’t hold London then this matters big for the GE.
If Le Arse can win tonight it will be a very very good day for me.
Looks like Lib-Dem walk outs are becoming a habit;
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
354. It’s pretty harsh to deny him votes because of caucuses, when his strength lies in the Midwest and West, which tend to hold caucuses more.
355
see my 349
Yes.. he did.
349. Duly noted.
338-No!
But Nazism did use the preponderance of Jews in left wing parties, relative to their population, politically.
Baltic anti-semitism was certainly fanned by the perceived preponderance of Jews in the incoming NKVD and local Communist Parties in 1940. Were they the majority? Almost certainly not. Were they overrepresented? Almost certainly yes. Of course there are lots of reasons why this is the case; from Tsarist pogroms and antisemitism, to socioeconomic status but it doesn’t obviate the fact (or is it theory?).
For the record. it was thought that Jews in the UK and US were more politically on the “left” than their % or economic status warranted. Both are debatable, certainly now.
345
Gilligan starting to be effective,first Rosemary Emodi,now Jasper and that’s before the result of any invetigation,what else?
Maybe it explains why Hazel Blears and Tessa Bowell were so rattled last weekend.
362 - I can’t really see these things in left / right matters. Isn’t there a lot about the National Socialists that was actually left wing - just as there is with the BNP now?
359 - Absolutely - I’m not supporting the arguments about popular vote being more important (etc), I’m just saying whilst his pledged delegate lead is pretty secure, I think she could well win the popular vote, which would in turn give her a case to take to the Convention.
She is by no means dead in the water, and the longer this drags on, the harder it is for Obama to look fresh and unbeatable.
358.ConHom has more on this evolving story. Clegg faces surrender on referendum or defining rebellion
Need to head off for the night - might be back on later.
Good luck to all you punters - let’s see where we are on the morrow!
357
Certainly it’s good winkling from Gilligan and the King Newt is a little less safe in his lair.
“King Newt is a little less safe in his lair” - an inspired mix metaphor!
339 - I think that your FL/MI estimates are out (she ‘won’ Michigan by 100k). A re-run would likely be closer because there would be an active campaign, turnout might be higher though if they were pivotal. Best case for Clinton is that she gains 400-500k.
Past tonight things look tough for her. On your analysis states with 34 congressmen benefit Obama, those with 24 benefit Clinton. She needs to cut the gap tonight probably by at least 200-300k to have any chance. That would still need her to win the remaining primaries by 100-200k, that on tough territory for her and when Obama is winning his states by bigger margins than she is winning hers.
It is just about possible, but unlikely. She needs bigger than expected wins tonight to have any type of realistic chance.
369 - It’s from Johnson when he threw his hat in ring -
“By the end of last week, I was facing huge and growing pressure from all corners of the Conservative Party to take up the challenge, and see if I could winkle King Newt from his lair.
Mayor Livingstone has been there too long, he has squandered untold millions on all sorts of nonsense, and it defied belief that we could not find a powerful voice to speak up for common sense in the administration of the greatest city on earth.”
The other day RodCrosby offered to stop posting on this subject if we liked - I vote to accept the offer. But at least he’s got some unlikely people to find some common ground - I agree with much of what Harry, seanT, socrates and Sean Fear say above, and I didn’t expect ever to say that - one or two of them, but not all four at once.
Back on topic, the Rasmussen poll suggest the pendulum is still swinging Hillary’s way - might yet see a startling outcome tonight. (Wishful thinking? Probably.)
Meanwhile, I’ve been away for three days and found 438 emails on my turn. A massive three of them are about the EU…
366
Chris Huhne was spot on with his calamity Clegg description.
However,the walking out bit of calamity’s strategy is proving popular.
371 - I am not that surprised it is from Bozza. Such a mixed metaphor is usually made either by somebody very clever or very stupid. My jury is still out on this one. Is the buffoon demeanour just an act? Is he slick inside?
296/298/299/348 etc. Re: RodCrosby.
I wouldn’t take too much notice of him.
He’s also on record as describing Winston Churchill as; “A Bastard of the 1st Order”.
He clearly has some very serious problems…
New thread “What does this to do the Mayoral Race?
375,
I am wondering what Rod’s views are on some other “conspiracy” theories (like, for example, the Moon landings) - at least debates on such subjects might be more palatable.
[If we can't stop this wrangle maybe we can divert it to another subject ...]
348. The torturers later boasted of their deeds without any pressure at all.
“Hoess screamed in terror at the mere sight of the British uniforms. Clarke yelled: ‘What is your name?’ With each answer of ‘Fritz Lang’, Clarke’s hand crashed into the face of the prisoner. The fourth time that happened, Hoess broke and admitted who he was… He was then dragged naked to one of the slaughter tables, where it seemed to Clarke the blows and screams were endless… It took three days to get a coherent statement out of him.”
Legions of Death, Rupert Butler, 1983.
“Mr. Ken Jones was then a private with the Fifth Royal Horse Artillery stationed at Heid[e] in Schleswig-Holstein. “They brought him to us when he refused to cooperate over questioning about his activities during the war. He came in the winter of 1945/6 and was put in a small jail cell in the barracks,” recalls Mr. Jones. Two other soldiers were detailed with Mr. Jones to join Höss in his cell to help break him down for interrogation. “We sat in the cell with him, night and day, armed with axe handles. Our job was to prod him every time he fell asleep to help break down his resistance,” said Mr. Jones. When Höss was taken out for
exercise he was made to wear only jeans and a cotton shirt in the
bitter cold. After three days and nights without sleep, Höss finally broke down and made a full confession to the authorities.”
published in a newspaper, the Wrexham Leader, Oct 17, 1986.
353. “Oh, and Hoess did speak English.” I’m sure he’d have spoken Gaelic if it had stopped the torture. If you ever happen to be arrested, you’d be happy no doubt to sign a statement written in Serbo-Croat….
Of course, it may just be all a myth. But that’s what honesty inquiry is all about. To separate the fact from myth. I highly recommend it…
186 153 Coldstone. We should remind ourselves that nearly 40,000 Irish citizens served in the UK forces, that includes 7,000 who deserted from the Irish armed forces.
Indeed. I posted the following link the other day when JH mentioned his granddad being a spitfire pilot. This young Irishman was only 19 during the Battle of Britain..
Pity Irish war memorials are neglected and heroes targeted,
378. I don’t see much point in debating over minor points when you are unwilling to set out what the other side of the argument is.
375 “He’s also on record as describing Winston Churchill as; “A Bastard of the 1st Order”.”
Such a statement says more of the traitor than Churchill.
Churchill was and is Britain’s greatest son.
Remember, Scissors Beat Paper
379. Thie historical ignorance of some posters is appalling. The first VC in WWI was awarded to an Irishman, as was the first VC in the Second World War.
full list…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Irish_Victoria_Cross_recipients
Marquee Mark
Sorry for a 6 hour delay in responding. The bet that you suggest is of no interest to me, especially the charity element. Thank you for coming back to me, however.
Really the offer was based on your belief that the odds of Obama winning all 4 tonight looked tempting.
Did not,around 1910,Churchill advocate sterilisation of ‘certain typrs’? Was not Churchill involved in troops being turned on working class people in 1910? I have a Welsh friend whose grandfather was one of those troops were turned upon.Mu Welsh friend,when in central London,when in the vicinity of Churchill’s statue,took his dog into a pub,to feed his dog copious amounts of water.The reason? So his dog had a very,very full bladder at the moment he and his master passed Churchill’s statue..
And before the inevitable screams come from the right,both my Welsh friend and I are very proud to be British-some on this sight,very insultingly,forget that you do not have to crawl up the arse of the Tory Party to be patriotic-and many on the right probably only need to be working-class,and they’d be in DM boots,skin-headed-I know the type only too well
384 Lots of “progressive” people advocated sterilisation of the asocial then. Sweden practised it till 1975. And as far as I can tell, no troops ever opened fire on anybody at Tonypandy. Why would the Liberal government have sought to alienate its own supporters in that way?
You don’t have to be a Tory to be patriotic. But if people get that impression it’s because some left wingers give the impression that they love every country except their own.
Did we ever get an answer to the question, posed at lunchtime, of how Betfair are defining a “win” in the TX primary?
320. “If you were a regular to the site you would note I took JohnLoony to task for his denial of the democides that happened under Stalin and Mao.
I don’t want to be too long-winded or argumentative (because it’s off-topic anyway) but I should clarify one or three things.
(1) I didn’t “deny” that millions of people died during the Ukrainian Famine and the Great Leap Forward; I argued that the causes of those deaths were due to mistakes, misjudgements, natural disasters such as famine and drought, and sabotage by counter-revolutionaries, and were not as a result of a deliberate systematic state policy of extermination (in other words, they are not morally comparable with the Holocaust, which was specifically designed as a process of killing).
(2) I argued (on the basis of archive evidence and historical research) that the numbers of people who died were substantially fewer than the numbers which have been usually repeated by bourgeois and reactionary historians, and that the incorrect figures have been wrongly calculated/estimated on the basis of flawed methodology. (Specifically, that the numbers who died in the Ukraininan Famine and the GLF were c. 1.5 to 2 million and 12 million respectively, and not 7 million and 30 million respectively).
(3) I cited reference books which explained the arguments in detail on the basis of evidence, rather than bluntly stating a blanket denial without a rational basis.
A few months ago, I joined the Stalin Society whose mission statement is “The Stalin Society was formed in 1991 to
defend Stalin and his work on the basis of fact and to refute capitalist, revisionist, opportunist and Trotskyist propaganda directed against him”; for me, by far the most important part of that statement is the words “on the basis of fact”. Strictly speaking, one does not even have to be a Stalinist or a Marxist to be able to agree with such a statement. In my reading and research I have only ever wanted to be enlightened with the truth, and I would not want to spread pro-Stalin propaganda (or rebuttals of the exaggerated claims) if I didn’t believe them to be true.