YouGov puts the Tories at 16% ahead…
March 15th, 2008
Voters give a big “thumbs down” in the first post-budget polls
Reports are coming in of two new polls showing big moves to the Tories. YouGov has the party on 43% a massive 16% ahead of Labour.
The shares with comparisons on the last YouGov survey at the end of February are: CON 43% (+3): LAB 27% (-6): LD 16% (nc)
ICM for tomorrow’s News of the World has Cameron’s party with a lead of 9% - up from just 3% in the last survey from the pollster two weeks ago. Thes are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster - CON 40% (+3): LAB 31% (-3): LD 20% (-1)
According to the Sunday Times, which commissioned the YouGov survey, the 16% lead is the biggest that the Tories have enjoyed for 20 years. I don’t think that that is correct. On June 9th 1990 ICM was reporting a a Conservative lead of 19%.
Mike Smithson
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I await Roger’s comments telling us how this means Cameron is finished and cannot possibly win. Mark Senior will tell us that the Lib Dems are going to double their seats…….
Looks like the Ed Ballsup “So What!” is kicking in.
Mike, Tim Montgomery on ConHom also reports “Another poll - ICM for the News of the World - is more modest. The Tories are 9% ahead according to ICM but that’s 6% more than the previous survey by that pollster.”
ICM Con40% Lab31% Libdem 20%
What not enough space for grumpy Gordons, Mike!
RodC’s swingometer gives (with a modest Nats boost and lots of LD incumbency) a Tory majority of 109 (377/205/34)
When was the last time ANY party was 16% ahead on ANY poll?
Andrea?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3559030.ece
The Tories need to be at least 59% ahead to have any chance of being the largest party at the next election. Labour should only really be worried if their poll rating goes below zero.
I really don’t know what to make of these polls. Things appear a bit volatile at the moment.
The Yougov looks like a rogue poll. Just too out of line from any other we’ve had in the past few months.
Come on Mike lets see those 16 Daves.
Refresh Fan
User-defined Prediction Electoral Calculus
The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
National Prediction: CON majority 134
Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 33.24% 208 43.00% 392
LAB 36.21% 347 27.00% 199
LIB 22.65% 66 16.00% 29
I’m going to need a stiff gin after looking at those 16 daves.
Still not breaching the crucial 45% mark
Good poll news for us tories. I have just come back from the Conservative Party Spring Conference. David Cameron’s speech was about as right wing as we are yet to hear from him, but the he generally came across as someone who is ready for government. As biased as I am the whole shadow cabinet seem to be working coherently based around a few key issues. They seem far more capable of running the country at the moment than the current Labour cabinet. The only downside was it looked like the tories were struggling to fill out the place, but I guess that is the risk of holding it as far north as Gateshead.
13
crucial??
Mrs Thatcher never had 45% so far as I recall…. 42% was about tops. Anyone know for sure?
lol
13
Is that ‘crucial 45% mark’ any relation to the crucial 40% mark?
One other crucial statistic: Lib Dems on 16% are only 2% ahead of “others” on 14%.
17 - Yes, directly related. It’s 40% + 5%
Now we know why Mike hasn’t put Clegg on the mast head
My research amoung Sun readers suggests that the Labour party is still popular. However, the labour govt in general, and GB in particular, are not liked at all.
They want the labour party, but not the labour govt. There is no enthusiasm for DC, unlike in the mid 90s for TB. But the is a feeling of staleness about, which many of them reckon to be irreversible.
14 - “They seem far more capable of running the country at the moment than the current Labour cabinet.”
That could be a key tipping point.
At some stage between 1992 and 1997, the Shadow Cabinet (Blair, Brown, Cook, Straw, Dewar, Mowlam, Strang, Chris Smith… even Blunkett, Beckett and Prezza) started to look more statesmanlike than the incumbent Tories.
Once you reach that stage, it is hard to survive. We are not at that stage quite yet, IMHO. But not far off. A sideways move for Osborne to be party chairman, bringing in AN Other (Duncan? Willetts?) as Shadow Chancellor may get them to the tipping point.
20 - It’s arguable that Gordon is being given too high a status. (wasn’t there some “poll” recently claiming that David Cameron was a more powerful person than the Prime Minister?
)
18 - why crucial?
Not many of our local party went, but then we are busy with local elections coming up which have been made more complicated by boundary changes. You lose some helpers and have to get the new ones to join in with a new association etc.
There is a real sense of determination that we don’t take our eye off the ball.
Margaret Thatcher got 44% in 1979; 43% in 1983 and 1987 and John Major managed 42% in 1992.
Its the economy…
20. Clegg on the mast head or,
Clegg’s head on the mast?
24. Was just playing on it’s previous use by alex.
But that 16% does not look good for LDs. Neither does that 27% look good for Labour. Both would suggest core vote.
Hi,I put my hands up-I was tired,very stressed out,a little bit p1ssed last night-reading one or two lines from someone (I forget who) riled me to the point of stating ‘Write your opininos on a cucumber and stick it up your arse’-not very polite,but in real life,I’ve said far,far worse,in white rage-I generally try to adhere to the rule ‘Say nothing on here you would not say to someone’s face’-I hope I do adhere to that.I hold out an olive branch to Don-can we cyber-shake hands and move on-lifes too short.
To the meat of this thread,2 poll showiing an average 12.5% Tory lead,a swing of 7.75% from the GE of 2005 -but we should NEVER forget swingback,so while I can foresee the Tories (Possibly) being largest in a hung parliament,I still feel they have alittle way to go before the trends truly show DC its time to start measuring upfor curtains at no.10:wink:
19
26
Interesting (re 1979 44%), Is Ed Balls “so what” comment eqivalent to Jim Callaghan’s “Crisis what Crisis” (given that both denied they ever said it….)
21. ‘My research among Sun readers….’ The mind boggles.
I have never heard a sentence begin with those words before.
29 - Of course with Labour at such low levels, it doesn’t leave too many votes to be passed tactically to the LibDems.
The tipping point for any government is when all the malcontents go to the principle opposition party rather than indulging the third party.
It looks like this is what has now happened.
They’ll be discussing the election that never was in 50 years time.
23 Alex Yes, but it was GQ. The Editor is an unabashed Tory. Appears occasionally on the Wright Stuff [rumour has it!]
34. According to Andy Cooke both Labour and Lib Dems each get a 10 seat bonus from tactical voting. If that unwinds, it would put the Lib Dems on 24 seats according to RodC’s model.
And Wales are winning!!!!
A Labour slump below 30% tallies exactly with expectations on my part - everyone I’ve spoken to, Labour or Tory, thinks the Budget bombed and will leave them significantly worse off.
If you put up the tax on an ordinary man’s Mondeo from £160 to £270 a year, and stick a whopping 14p on a bottle of wine or 55p on whisky, he is going to be a bit naffed off, even if his income tax is notionally dropped by 2p in the £.
Will Labour see 30% again whilst still in office?
37. Perhaps we shall look back and see that Ave It was actually the most accurate poster on PB.
Getting ahead here… So Darling is a flop. Replace him? With Balls, who may have contrrbuted to the problem and discredited himself? With someone else who is a likely to be a trhreat to Balls’ ambition? Owwww
38
the only thing to spoil a great day;)
but fair play to Wales, the other sides were not as good over 5 games////
Re Yougov. The records are
16 is Biggest Conservative lead with Yougov
16 is Biggest lead by any party with Yougov (back to 2002)
27 is lowest Labour poll with Yougov
39 I do not think that the car tax implications have filtered through to the public.
Labour’s polling has further to fall.
2010 looks ever more likely.
Sorry, exciement affecting my typing..:-0
It could of course be a rogue poll and I would want to see a couple more from other organisations reflecting these results before believing YouGov.
I knew that Gordon Brown was doing badly, and missing opportunities to do better, but I never saw him as an IDS-type figure who would take his party to the brink of oblivion.
What I’m really scared of is the finger pointing and blame warfare that is going to erupt within the Labour hierarchy.
Of course, I’m not really sure what the Tories are going to do. It’s very odd to hear them promising to increase the numbers of health visitors - I’m too used to hearing them argue that the public sector is too bloated.
I can imagine some people are going to harp on about “swingback” and that the government has the opportunity to regain the initiative, etc, but, really, honestly, can anyone name a politically popular move that Gordon Brown’s government has taken that they didn’t manage to botch in some way? They’re singularly incapable getting anything right.
It’s all hypothetical of course, but when Labour had their landslide in 1997 there were people being elected who had had no central ’screening’ at all. Although ultimately I think many proved to be the most loyal of all Labour MPs.
What is the make up of Conservative candidates in some of the more “far off” targets?
‘Will Labour see 30% again whilst still in office?’
Fancy £1000 on it?
49
We’re still a long way from an election.
44. Neither has the income tax changes - people should get their first wage slips just before the May elections - good timing by Gord and Co methinks (not). I suspect King Newt amongst others will be feeling a little glum….
i doubt they’re 16% ahead, more around the 9-10% mark. although 16% on that one must be very disheartening for labour, they’ve tried to push the budget as being sensible and really gone for eht tories, and it seems to have backfired spectacularly.
The best thing Labour can do is appeal to Gordon Brown to govern more collegiately (and if he’s already doing so, APPEAR to be doing so), and manage this period of unpopularity so they only lose narrowly in 2009. Brown should then resign and they can replace him with someone better who will have a much easier job of dislodging Cameron after one term (or less) than was ever possible for the new Tory leader in 1997.
One thing I positively believe is that even if they lose outright and Cameron gets a decent majority, there is no way that Labour will be in the position where they have no chance whatsoever - unlike the Tories in 1997. Cameron just isn’t appealing enough and Labour won’t be heated like the Cons were.
hated, not heated
Mike: I think you’re mistaken about the June 1990 poll. It had Lab 54%, Con 35%. The Gallup poll a few days earlier, for example, gave Labour a 24% lead. Perhaps the source you were looking at had a typo?
However, the ASL phone poll in January 1991 gave the Tories a 17% lead.
54. Have Labour got anyone better? I haven’t seen him/her if there is someone.
54/55
I don’t think the Conservatives were hated. They just didn’t look up to the job in 2001 & 2005.
48 - “swingback” is a bit of a misleading concept IMO. What it amounts to is there being natural variation in polling cycles, and the Govt in power having the advantage of being able to time the election to a point at which the polling cycle is most favourable to them.
This advantage largely disappears once the Govt takes the decision to sacrifice this advantage, in favour of a dogmatic “go long” approach.
52
not so methinks, I was a Payroll Manager for 25 yrs and the vast majority of people are now paid bi weekly, 4 weeekly or monthly. Weekly pay is a thing of the past methinks so it wont be noticed my most till the end of May. In any event, its peanuts as a tax cut.
Surprisingly little movement on Spreadfair as yet, following these polls. I’ve just closed my £30 per seat sell bets of Tory seats at around 303.5, expecting the price to go to around 310 or more on these polls. There’s plenty available to buy at around the 304-305 seat level. On the same basis Labour seats should fall to around the 270 range.
YouGov Poll, central prediction, election-to-poll swing, tactical voting retained by Labour, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 385 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 199 (+/-10)
LD 36 (+/-6)
YouGov poll, central prediction, election-to-poll swing, half tactical vote lost, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost
Con 393 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 191 (+/-10)
LD 35 (+/-6)
ICM poll, central prediction, election-to-poll swing, tactical voting retained by Labour, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 317 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 253 (+/-10)
LD 51 (+/-6)
ICM poll, central prediction, election-to-poll swing, half tactical vote lost, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 326 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 245 (+/-10)
LD 49 (+/-6)
ICM poll, central prediction, poll-to-poll swing, tactical voting retained by Labour, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 341 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 226 (+/-10)
LD 53 (+/-7)
ICM poll, central prediction, poll-to-poll swing, half tactical vote lost, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 350 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 218 (+/-10)
LD 52 (+/-7)
Notes: Probabilistic predictor, MoE equates to 2 standard deviations (ie 95% confidence), “Poll-to-poll” compares swing from that pollsters equivalent eve-of-poll prediction (eliminates any accusations of pollster bias; NB not available for YouGov due to methodology change), “Tactical vote retained” assumes that tactical voting will benefit Labour as much as it did in 2005; “half tactical voting lost” assumes that Labour will get only half the boost it got from anti-Tory tactical voting last time.
There are too many variables to provide predictions for all scenarios. Another good one to run is the polls on the margins of error of these ones. But I can say with confidence that on the strength of these polls, the Conservatives will be somewhere between the largest party in a hung parliament (a few seats over the 300 mark) to a majority of over 150 (a few seats over the 400 mark).
You pays your money and you takes your choice …
54. 55. Desperate stuff, really desperate. The party you so adore is already held in contempt and as economic problems mount, things are only going to get worse for them.
51 - It’s a hypothetical question. How far down the list are Central Office keeping an eye on selections?
Yes, excellent Tory polls! No argument.
I think You Gov is always more responsive to the mood music.
I am not sure if it is because internet users are so much more informed!
I think…. what I will think…. when I have settled down abit, is that it actually follows a trend.
The Tories go up and down and so do Labour. But over time the Tories high points get consistently higher, as does their low point.
Likewise, Labour’s high points get lower as do their low points.
This coincides with Govt bad news and Dave [good or bad].
Suck it up BBC!
Re - Last Thread, whever tried to claim that post Super Tuesday states for the GOP were not winner takes all was wrong. Washington partly, Rhode Island, Maryland,and some pacific islands yes. Put that against Kansas, DC, Virginia, Wisconsin, most of Washington, Puerto Rico, Ohio, Texas & Louisiana (if over 50% in what would have been a two horse race, so effectively WTA), Vermont and Mississippi.
Upcoming there are more proportional states but by now a challenger could have been very much back in the game.
Maybe they didn’t know about district WTA or just made it up out of their head.
Still - Romney comes out of this as ten times the person that Clinton does.
66
I remember the Sunday morning after the election that never was. Broadcasting house avoided mentioning the headline story in all the papers, until the last minute of the show. Then the only comment was what a lucky escape the Conservatives had had
BBC, fair and balanced reporting.
60. But don’t the Tax changes come in on the 1st April? Hence whatever pay system people are on they will get their first pay slip under the new taxes at the end of April just before the local elections?
Superb poll - best in years!
[39] - Of course Labour will top 30% in an opinion poll, even from Yougov, again. It might be an outlier in their favour, though.
[41] - I’m convinced that Brown can only go forward if he can leave Balls behind. Since the two of them have been so close together for so long, This is very unlikely to happen. Time for the classical music, with the sounds of deckchairs being rearranged in the background…
67 - Should have made it clear that Washington partly, Rhode Island, Maryland,and some pacific islands have been the proportional ones.
Pter Ridell [whois a goog guy] has had a bit of a spat with the TaxPayers Alliance about his reliance and interpretation of the Populus poll.
In a nutshell, they said it was pants and he said he acknowledged it had limitations but they were dissing it because they didn’t like what it said.
I would suggest they have less egg on their face after these bigger, weighted etc polls.
Very heartening - Britain looks like it really is about to awaken from the appalling nightmare of the last decade. REJOICE.
65: so what do you plan to do after the Commons then, Nick P?
Sorry, couldn’t resist that one. Very noble of you not to attempt to put some spin on it…
Seriously - do you think the Budget has indeed gone down like a lead balloon, as per my post 39 above? It does seem to be hitting your core supporters most.
grand slammmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…ahem, sorry
anyhoo, we constantly hear about how brown can come back if he does this or that, but it never happens. he never sorts anything out. balls is just a sympton of the rubbish team he has around him.
[47] - Yes, of course it is a rogue poll, but the “true” position must still be awful for Labour for a poll, even a rogue one, to produce such scores.
And, there is also the horrifying possibility that this poll is not as rogue as the ones that went before it, except that because those polls showed a narrowing of the position, it’s conceptually a little harder to think of them as “rogue”, even though they may be as far from the true position as one that produces a large difference between the parties.
Both IG Index and Sporting Index have suspended their general election spread markets. I managed to get a bit on Tory seats with both before the suspension though they don’t let me bet very much anymore.
[29] - Maybe Labour’s core vote is not as stupid as they think it is? Maybe Labour’s core vote noticed that they had their income tax put up from 10% to 20%, increasing their income tax, whilst their courageous leader tried to buy votes in mythical Middle England?
After all, the Yougov poll has others +3%, half of the people that Labour lose compared to the previous poll.
Where have they gone? BNP? Greens? Whatever random lefty decides to stand in my constituency?
68: “BBC, fair and balanced reporting”
I wonder if this historic poll lead will get any mention whatsoever on the BBC News tonight?
No, I expect not. Probably be something deriding the Tories about not having any councillors in Gateshead or something, and facing an uphill battle to win again in the north…
69 - the tax changes come into effect on 6th April when it is an unhappy new tax year (2008/9) for those who at present benefit with the 10% tax band.
re 39 Bob, don’t forget the 5 million (the majority of them natural Labour supporters) whose income tax is going up in 3 weeks. The full effect of this won’t become apparent until the end of April - indeed quite a few of them may not yet realize that Gordon shafted them last year. I think Labour could go lower yet.
81
You mean the Labour vote can fall lower than 27% ? Top banana
re 82 I forgot to say that this might be the equivalent of Gordon’s 25p pensioner’s increase early on in his incumbency. You’d have thought that he would have learnt from that wouldn’t you?
[54] - It’s not just if the public hate Labour, there are other ways a new opposition can have no chance.
The most likely for Labour is that they implode in an orgy of self-destructive infighting as the Blairites blame the Brownites, the Brownites blame the Tories (they do so about everything already), and everyone else in their party wrings their hands about how terrible it is… (and also blames the Lib Dems, and the Greens, and anyone else but themselves).
85. Spot on - it’s going to be great. Labour a pathetic lauging stock again, just like the 1980s. Back to where they should be.
A likely knock-on effect from these latest polls is the greatly diminished likelihood of a General Election before 2010.
There’s great value to be had with Paddy Power who are currently offering 11/8 or 1.375/1 on a 2010 GE. All the other bookmakers go odds-on with Ladbrokes pricing 2010 at just 8/11 or 0.73/1, a staggering difference between the two firms.
Hurry, PP’s price won’t last.
re 85 you could almost put that to music - National Brotherhood Week, anyone?
test
“It’s tempting to automatically assume that such a massive shift this must be a rogue poll. My guess is that it will indeed prove to be an outlier - the shift is just too large- but a second poll, this time from ICM in the News of the World, confirms a significant shift towards the Tories since the budget. ICM’s topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(+3), LAB 31%(-3), LDEM 20%(-1).” Anthony Wells, UK Polling Report
The fightback looks like it’s stalled……..
Wow, that’s huge. To put that YouGov poll into some sort of context
Election 1992: Con 42, Lab 34, Lib Dem 18
and if you really want to give Gordon Brown a shock
Con 405, Lab 180, SNP 19, Lib Dem 16, Plaid 6, Respect 2, Green 1, Ind 1, KHHC 1, BGPV 1, NI 18. Con majority of 160
85- I doubt that there are many in the Labour party who do not know what the problem is- obviously Gordon Brown, and his inner circle of acolytes. I guess even Nick Palmer knows this- though obviously he is far too loyal.
That catastrophic 3 weeks in autumn- the Iraq stunt, the election that never was, the lies and deceit (not the opinion polls), and the shame face desperate stealing of the Tory IHT proposals- showed Brown’s leadership for what it was. Cuddles is right here- there is no possibility for a fightback whilst Brown is leader. The guy does not have it in him.
Brown had a honeymoon to die for, a benign united party behind him, faced by a (then) weak and divided opposition, and he screwed it up. All his own making, but then I very much doubt he could help it.
91. As ever the master of understatement. My take on it is this is yet another Labour U-Turn!
77
Definetly rogue polls for the Lib Dems as they are not in line with this week’s parish council by-election results,looking forward to some informed comment from our resident guru from Worthing.
This is excellent, superb in fact. Are we really 16 points ahead, i very much doubt it and it might be a bit rogue, however some points are becoming clear. The Tories are stable at 40%. This is the most heartening news as the foundations look solid. It’s also looking like Brown has lost the voters that kept Blair in power in key seats. That could mean 30% is looking likely. Also the Lib Dems are not making progress. It will take some time to regain the ground they’ve lost over the last 2 years.
did the period include dc’s family coverage or not?
When was the last time Labour polled as low as 27?
Certainly some time before June 1987.
If 27 is an outlier then ICM’s 31 for Labour is a conservative estimate of where Labour are.
If however we do get a series of polls under 30 over a several month period then watch what happens in the Labour party’s “professional MPs” when 150 of them start staring at the prospect of losing their jobs.
I wonder what Ken Livingstone is thinking….. in seeing this poll….
If these figures are to be believed the value bet must be Boris to become the next Mayor of London.
I am tempted to stake even more on him before his odds shrink.
93. omg , someone thought i talked some sense !
it is true, brown cannot now lead labour to any kind of victory. he only knows one tactic, bash the tories and try to spin everything positively. cameron has him by the,erm, opinion polls (yeah, that’ll do). brown has thrown everything at cameron, and it hasnt work, in fact cameron has become stronger because of it. what else can brown do?
[93] - It’s the wasted potential that’s so infuriating. What an opportunity. And because he threw it all away I’m going to have to live with the smug gits on the Tory frontbench.
93 - I think it’s more serious than that. For several years Labour’s entire electoral strategy has been based on
1) The Tories are a joke
2) We’ve run a good economy
Every time they ever moved away from these two fundamental themes they focussed on things that they did in their first term (you know the stuff - devolution, minimum wage, BoE independence, Social Chapter, New Deal for Young People etc etc
This strategy has explicitly suited Gordon, because it gives him the credit for anything positive that Labour have campaigned on. However with the Tories no longer a laughing stock (scaring people about them will never be quite as damaging, even if successful), and the economy looking dodgy, they have no wideranging alternative campaigning issues to fall back on.
If the polls carry on like this there will be panic in the PLP. The divisions that have existed in the party since the birth of New Labour will be exposed. Labour will probably lose the next election and the different factions will blame each-other, deepening the divisions within the party. Mmm, sounds familiar.
100 great minds think alike and in the same moment too!
Following on from 93- how Brown managed to turn the press against him, unite the opposition, hand them the policy initiative, even giving Osborne stature, and show himself to be the dithering, bottling, calculating, cynical, unlikable, cowardly man he actually is- all in that 2/3 weeks.
Taken about 6 months to sink in- but Brown has now reached a tipping point, and these polls show that if he hangs around to an election, Labour are going to get thumped.
Gosh. That’s a hell of a result from YouGov, and a pretty good one from ICM. Having done some canvassing in the last few weeks (in a Con/LD marginal, so not wholly typical), it doesn’t completely surprise me - there has definately been some movement to the onservatives.
Even so, a few words of caution to overenthusiastic Tories. Firstly, a sixteen point lead is obviously extremely good, but even if it’s not an outlier, it may still overstate the current position (an outlier/rogue is on beyond the MoE, which is usually about +/-3% each way). ICM looks more sensible to me and I’d have thought a 9-12 point lead nearer the mark. That said, Labour on 27% is dreadful share for them. When were they last down there? Some time in the mid-80s, I’d have thought.
Secondly, 43% of the total vote isn’t especially good with a sixteen point lead (though obviously it is a good score in its own right). That kind of margin has been produced by an unpopular Labour government, not a particularly popular Conservative Party - the Others share is high and if there was a positive mood for change, that would drop off some.
Thirdly, Labour still has a large number of seats in which MPs are putting out newsletters and other things paid for by the taxpayer. Tory MPs are doing the same of course, but it’s the Labour ones, together with some Lib Dems, who’ll be fighting the marginals next time.
Fourthly, a constituency network still counts. That could be a big problem for Labour in many areas as their membership ages and declines, but it is also a problem for the Conservatives in some areas which should be targets to get up to and beyond a hung parliament, where the pre-1997 organisation has withered badly and the incumbent Labour / Lib Dem MP is looking entrenched. That is something CCHQ will have to address if these poll shares aren’t going to end up in a large number of 20000+ majorities and not as many gains as would be expected. This effect is reinforced by a notorious lack of willingness among Conservative volunteers to go out of safe seats and help in marginals - unlike Labour and especially Lib Dem activists.
93
Don’t you think it was Brown coming out of the closet and inviting his Tory icon for tea and arranging for the world’s media to record the event?
106. not all of it has been brown, he’s just allowed the tories to get their message and new style over a lot easier than blair did.
Good grief! 16% lead with YouGov? I bet the YouGov executives nearly fell off their chairs when they saw this! :O
ICM looks more sensible to me. 9% lead with the Conservatives at 40% and Labour at 31%.
One thing though, if Labour’s polling doesn’t improve quickly, they could be facing a 95/96 style meltdown! :O
107
“Fourthly, a constituency network still counts. That could be a big problem for Labour in many areas as their membership ages and declines, but it is also a problem for the Conservatives in some areas which should be targets to get up to and beyond a hung parliament, where the pre-1997 organisation has withered”
Time to become a ‘friend’ of the Conservatives perhaps, if you’re not already.
https://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=involved.join.page
[101] - There’s a lot that Brown could do, or at least could have done. Even if he somehow found the sense to kill off unpopular policies that are clearly going nowhere and costing lots of money (ID cards are front of the queue here), it might well be too late for him to do any good - though I might be over-reacting to the scale of this poll.
Brown is never going to find out, since he’s a died-in-the-wool Blairite who has been captured by the civil service (who love ID card type projects and the contract opportunities they represent for when they later hop into private sector directorships or consulting roles). And he also lacks Bliar’s “charm”.
93,Ah well,based on recent history,fourth terms ate not good foer a party,so a defeat (which would NOT be huge) may be cleansing long-term-let DC have his moment,see how he lasts when its actions and not just platitides required-my hunch is he’ll go 18-24 months then hit a REAL rough patch (fight with UNISON over the Local Govt Pension Scheme)
92. Suspect KHHC will be zero, especially if election is not held until 2010.
113 - Er, why is the Local Govt Pension scheme always the first target? What about all the unfunded schemes in the Public Sector?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 40% .. Lab 31.8% .. LibDem 17.6% .. Others 10.6%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 312 seats .. Lab 262 .. LibDem 46 .. Others 30.
Con 14 seats short of a majority.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES … System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
111. I will be standing at the local elections as a Conservative (in the ward I was canvassing, by conincidence
), so somewhat beyond a ‘friend’.
Re Gordon’s late September mess, IIRC, it took about six months for the public to really turn against the Conservatives after Black Wednesday, so a similar sort of timescale.
[107] - An excellent post. Paragraph three is particularly worth noting, and should provide some encouragement to the Lib Dems. There is an opportunity here for them too, if they are able to grasp it.
109- agreed again- undoubtedly Cameron is now making the running. All the more reason why Labour needed a good leader with a good narrative.
Bron’s strategy to say that the Tories will eat your babies when back in power just looks risible. A bit like Major harking on about the winter of discontent in 1979 in the 97 elction. A quality of the British is to forgive, forget and move on.
113. Yeah. I remember a lot of Conservatives thinking much the same about Blair circa 1996.
[113] - That’s the sort of thing the Communists in Germany said about Hitler: “First Hitler, then us”.
I’m not suggesting Cameron is comparable to Hitler, just that you exhibit a remarkable amount of complacency in the same way as the Communists. They appeared to have no idea of the way in which Hitler would entrench his position, and Cameron may well be able to do the same.
Opposition would also only be “cleansing” for Labour if they were able to understand it properly. It took the Tories another two election defeats to begin to understand why they lost in 1997, who’s to say that Labour won’t respond in the same way.
Pleeeeese can we have our all out elections in South Lakeland brought forward to next Thursday !
117- I do not think the Labour party are in any kind of the mess that the Tories were in after Black Wednesday, but this is counterbalanced by the fact that Major was a much more appealing, and likeable leader than Brown could ever be.
Thus my point that if Brown stays on Labour will get thumped.
[121] - Cameron won’t necessarily be arresting Brown for treason though…
119. all true, brown rode his luck last year but instead of seeing is as a honeymoon he saw it as a long term thing. he still does, and thats where he falls down. he thinks that the his natural position is ahead of the tories and so wont rock the boat too much by making too many changes. if he continues on this line by the time he’s been convinced that the tories ARE a threat and not just a passing fad it’ll be too late. good for my lot though.
US: Obama’s troubles creates a good buying opportunity. Clinton is not going to catch him. He is value at 2/5 offered by VChandler and Betfair.
But his prospects in November is dimming. McCain is value at 2/1 Centerbet. I’ve added another £600 to my considerable holding.
The trouble for Labour is that there is no obvious replacement for Brown (unless you count David Miliband who seems to have neither charm nor electoral appeal).
As Timothy says @ 112, there is a great deal of money devoted to making dodgy consultancy firms very rich, and these should be killed off. But again, it is not straightforward since a weakened Brown cannot afford to upset the Blairites.
As Tyson implies @ 93, Brown’s inner circle is a big part of the problem and must go. Balls would be a good start: are there any EU posts coming up?
re 119. Is now the moment for Balls?
Youngish, public school and Oxford, attractive wife……and..em..em..
128 Oh dear Mike … you really have been at that vat of blue nun !!
By the way, when using MoE to look at the ranges of a lead, bear in mind that simply adding 3 to the lower one and subtracting 3 from the upper one would be outside the 95% criterion - because the error could go either way at equal probability, for that to be true, both errors have to line up in an exact way (which reduces the probability of that error occuring)
Further, both would have to be off by the extremes of error.
(I’m only mentioning this because I used to look at polls like this and say “Well, the YouGov one means the real scenario could be between 40/30 and 46/24; lead is between 10 and 22″ - and that puts more stress on the MoE than it can accept).
I did some calculations while back and I seem to remember that when you put the various factors together, the MoE in the lead was also pretty much the 3% MoE quoted for each individual score.
Central probabilistic forecast (YouGov)
Con 374
Lab 197
LD 36
Nats 22 (assumes SNP +13%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Central probabilistic forecast (ICM)
Con 309
Lab 252
LD 51
Nats 17 (assumes SNP +13%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
6-poll rolling average
Con 307
Lab 262
LD 43
Nats 17
Oth 3
NI 13
The YouGov has to be treated as a rogue for the moment. The ICM is quite in line with the past 15 or so polls, which tends to support this hypothesis.
I suspect the true position is still something like 39:33:18.
Blimey, after a 3% lead not so long ago 16% and 9% are enormous swings.
However, not only do I consider 16% to be inaccurate, I hope it is. I want the next government to be Conservative, but a majority of that size would not, I think, be conducive to better governance.
I had thought the ‘real’ lead to be around 5-8%. I suspect it’s hovering around 8% still. The Tories need to resist the urge to be complacent and not rely on the government cocking things up (although this does seem rather likely).
Be interesting to see if the heroic Cleggnut, Abstainer par Excellence, benefits from this. Perhaps Clegg is another gift for Cameron. Though not awe-inspiring, Cameron’s clearly more likeable than Brown and more competent than Calamity.
Any idea when the Com Res poll is due? Based on these polls that should give a 20% lead!!
re 129 You’ve got to drink this weekend because it all gets more expensive next week. Funny how that hasn’t proved popular in the polls
128. Why not just choose the wife?
BTW, the statement in the intro about disagreeing with the Sunday Times about when the Tories last had a better lead is almost certainly wrong, as Mark Pack says at [57], given the political scene at the time (Poll Tax, Thatcher, interest rates at 14 or 15% etc), though he did find one a touch more recent with a bigger lead. Not sure I entirely believe that one either as it was way out of line with others at the time. The Mori 1979-present series gives the last larger Tory lead as just after the 1987 election, which ties in with the ST’s comment.
87 Hurry, PP’s price won’t last
It didn’t! Odds reduced from 11/8 to 11/10, now similar to Betfair’s odds, which are arguably arguably still attractive if you believe Labour’s share of the poll is likely to remain at or below 35% for the next 18 months.
…. Turkeys and Christmas, etc.
the amazing thing about this poll is and the talCalamity is getting 16% and the talk is of Labour problems! Clegg’s disastrous performance (only made starker by Cables’s excellent budget response[better than Gideon's]) must be raising more questions in COwley street than in the PLP.
Gordon is two years away from having to face the consequences of increasing taxes on both the poorest workers (abolishing 10p band) and the strivers (increased NICs on 34-40K) - he can still do something about it. CLeggie is going nowhere and the position hasn’t improved after all the backstabbing of Ming. C’mon LDs get it over with and split into two; crazed tory hating lefties and almost sensible National Liberals. The agony of facing both ways at once must be excruciating.
Relax people. These polls are no more meaningful than last weeks which had the parties within a point or two of each other……
There are two years till the next election and if posters on here don’t think that’s time enough for Cameron’s Conc’s to blow it and for Labour to get their act together then they’re dreaming. For what it’s worth I think Labour are at last finding a narrative which is more than can be said for the Tories. it takes a while to work it’s way through to the polls.
My advice….wait and see.
138 - What is that narrative?
[137] - Re: NICs, did Brown play with the thresholds on that? I hadn’t noticed…
134 Relax Mike, I reckon Tesco will hold their booze prices for at least another month.
Remember the bad old days when petrol retailers had the prices on their forecourts marked up almost before the Chancellor had sat down?
138. thats it, buy tory!
narrative? its the same narrative they always do, the tories are toffs who cant be trusted after what they did in the late 80’s to the economy. nothings changed.
I’ve just put as much as I can on Boris for the Mayoralty. He was at evens on Betfair an hour ago - I’ve backed him down to 0.92/1
It’s hardly a good time for him to seek a third term with Labour doing so badly.
140 - Brown did, and Darling conveniently forgot to reannounce it.
re 141. I’ve just got my own booze tax avoidance plan - I’ve bought a season ticket on Eurotunnel.
138. LOL! Ever hopeful for Labour, eh, Rog?
Of course, int the next two years Cameron could blow it, but equally, Labour’s position could get even worse!
139, it’s the same as the vision, obviously:p
140 the affected people won’t notice until they work out it’s cost them about £500 (they’ll pay 11% rather than 1% on more of their income) - for some reason the government aren’t making a big deal about how they are aligning NICs and Income tax
they don’t have the cojones to just subsume NICs into income tax and stop the ridiculous pretence. I hope Cammo does as part of tax simplification but I’m not holding my breath.
138. lol, The only man who an make Comical Ali look like a guardian of the truth!
Mike, I’s sure in 1990, ICM were showing a Labour lead of 19%, not a Tory one…
78/128. Mike
Any idea when the SportingIndex markets might be back up?
I’ve noticed they’ve suspended the London Mayoral election one too, pourquoi?
Why do they always have to childishly suspend markets whenever a few punters get it right.. It’s not like they’re short of profit or anything.
Logic suggests that these polls will dent Ken’s prospects where he is currently “even Stephen” with Boris in the betting. However, the MoL election is something of a one-off, based much more on these two personalities. It’s possibly best therefore to await further London polling evidence.
148 - The Conservatives didnt fully align tax with NICs either. And having worked on a project for some time to do just that I can tell you why - it’s actually quite difficult to do.
151 Casino, You can continue to bet on Spreadfair.
[113][115] While it’s true that the local government pension scheme is fully funded, and so does not contribute to public sector debt, nevertheless it represents a fund which government could take over for other purposes if it wished to.
Beggaring local government pensioners would probably be less unpopular than doing the same to policemen or nurses. But I think we’d need a major financial crisis (e.g. one of the “Big Four” High Street banks failing) before it came to that. Still, it may start to be lobbied for by right-wing commentators and bloggers as an end in itself.
[144] - Ah, yes, that aligns it more closely with the Income tax bands though, doesn’t it?
Let’s not forget YouGov were showing a 13% (and a 12%) Tory lead in December 2007, and they proved illusory…
138
Can’t wait for the narrative the opportunities are endless:
Beef up the plastic bags hotline?
Another invitation to tea for Mrs Thatcher?’
Pretend the troops are coming home from Afghanistan?
Another election stunt?
Lose some more computer disks?
Nationalise another bank?
I thought the threatened tax on plastic bags was a major vote winner. How wrong can you be?
153 oohh it’s a bit difficult so we won’t do it. The war cry of radicals down the ages!!!
NO tax change is simple, particularly for the poor software developers expected to do these things at the drop of a hat - doesn’t mean it shouldn’t happen. A complete and very brave rewrite of the UK tax code is essential to our future competitiveness.
Personally I would abolish all tax except on land ownership - easy to understand hard to evade and simple to collect. Perhaps fortunately for others I will never be in a position to enact this drastic proposal
157, As we didn’t have a real GE to compare them to, I’d say “transient” is a better word than “illusory”.
158, the Tories are 16 points ahead. So what?
:p
157. Illusory in the sense of … ? They weren’t tested.
That said, I never trust polls much in December, July or August due to Christmas and the Summer holidays. March, on the other hand, when the politics season is in full swing, should produce much more reliable results. We also have three permanent party leaders at the moment, which is more than could be said last Autumn.
Evening all
A lot of febrile hubris on here from some Tories balanced by an excellent analysis from David at 107 which I would commend to anyone.
I’m always interested to see how some view politics in terms of the destruction or vilification of opponents while others appreciate the opportunity to provide better governance for the people of this country.
Anyway, my take on this and other things:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2008/03/is-it-game-over-for-gordon.html
155 - The Govt could take over the local Govt Pension fund for other purposes? On what grounds?
They could change the rules on payouts (for future service) and therefore allow local authorities to reduce employer contributions but they have no right to funds that workers have themselves contributed towards.
Nobody should forget it was those supposedly clever people in the Labour Party who forced out Blair (the most successful Labour leader ever and who was elected for a full term) in order to bring in this genius Gordon Brown.
You couldn’t make it up. It will surely go down in history as the most idiotic decision ever taken in modern times by either of the main 2 parties (maybe 1= with the election of IDS though that was far less important as the Conservatives were not and had no prospect of being in power anyway).
145. Mike, how much “shit” can you bring back from the continent in your car before customs stop you and throw a wobbly??
Always wanted to know this. In *theory* it’s infinite, but in practice it’s a couple of crates of red, a car bootful, or what??
163 - We are also outside of school holidays although the next few weeks will possibly have an effect on polls.
154. Thanks. But I had an open position on SportingIndex I wanted to reassess.
164. most tories on here are the same as myself, we think 16% is far too high but the 9% sounds about right.
156 I’m sure that those paying will say just that - ahh yes at least my NI contributions are now aligned with my income tax rate!
157 in what sense ‘illusory’ they were opinion poll results! also a 13% lead in December replaced by one of 16% 3 months later can hardly be used in an argument for claiming such leads are ‘rogue’.
These Polls get sillier and sillier don’t thay.
“and show himself to be the dithering, bottling, calculating, cynical, unlikable, cowardly man he actually is- all in that 2/3 weeks.”
106.Tyson, the problem is that Brown was all of those things before his coronation as Labour Leader, ask Tony Blair and any cabinet colleague that dared to cross him since 97′.
I think that these weaknesses had already seeped into voters minds over the 2/3 years before he became PM with the various drip drip of unfavourable stories about the tension that existed between Blair and Brown, especially after Blair did not hand over the crown in the run up to, or following the 2005 GE.
That Brown honeymoon bounce was more a reflection of Blair leaving than Brown arriving, the bottled election and all the other bad headlines just reinforced a perception already in their minds. The leadership may have changed but the day to day bad headlines of incompetent management and lack of any forward thinking so evident before Blair left is still happening now.
After 10 years of Brown jealously guarding his position of heir apparent, Labour just does not have a stand out candidate to replace Brown ,or a cabinet of all the talents.
re 157. How did those polls prove illusory? Poll numbers from all pollsters change. You could say the same of the 11% Labour leads that YouGov was reporting in September 2007.
I reckon it’s all down to my thesis that the more Cameron is in the news then the better the Tory poll figures are.
This has proved to a be a good guide since December 2005.
121Recent history shows that once in office,the Tories soon screw up BIG TIME:
(a)The MOMUNENTAL error of doubling VAT from 8-15% by Howe,thus necessitating unnecaessarily higher interest rates,and turning a potential slowdown into our worst recession since the 1930s only went unpunished by the electorate because
(i)The Labour Party,largely at Benn’s hand,lurched ,massively to the left,with many moderates breaking away to the SDP
(ii)The withdrawal of HMS Endurance left the Falkland exposed and what happened happened.I have a personal poignancy to this as a local lady lost her elder son in the Falklands-he was 19-a mere boy,and he died for..a speck of land 8000 miles away-I was proud at the time of our forthrightness then,but now every time I hear the word ‘Falklands’ I feel for this lady in her 60s
(b)Without going into detail,Ted Heath picked fights right,left and center until the National union of Mineworkers basically brought him down-we could talk all night whether any one block should have the moral right to do that.
Personally,I would not be surprised if a Cameron led govt provoked UNISON to the most militant union action since the 1970s-as a local govt worker I would say ‘Bring it ON!’-yes,I have a streak of old-style militancy in me-that is the person I am
That would give the tories a majority of 130+ and leave the lib dems with less than 5 MPs.
The poll is bull.
I wrote a feww weeks ago that week Cambo is in trouble a poll always pops up to help him out. This is no exception
Enjoy kidding yourself
111.”but it is also a problem for the Conservatives in some areas which should be targets to get up to and beyond a hung parliament, where the pre-1997 organisation has withered””
That is a particular problem for the Conservatives in Scotland even now, the polls may be showing a big recovery for the party down South, but even a modest recovery is being hampered by the lack of foot soldiers on the ground in some area’s we should be looking to win back in the next couple of GE’s.
[171] - Given that I’m going to be out of pocket due to the removal of the 10% band, I’m hardly going to shed any tears for those paying more NICs. Personally, I’d support the removal of the upper earnings limit altogether. If Brown could give most of the money right back by increasing the personal allowance as much as he could then afford to, that would be fab.
re 151. I do not know.
Whenever a poll like this comes out I rush first to get spread bets on. Generally the firms aren’t that speedy in reacting in the way we are but if they see activity they close markets down. It will be interesting to see what they offer when the markets come back. I would say a Tory spread 0f 308-314.
Spreadfair offers very little these days because they’ve stopped credit betting on political markets. To get anything on you’ve got to deposit a pile of cash with them. With SI and IG you don’t.
175. But who had more power:
The NUM in 1974 or UNISON in 2010?
164. What’s that?
Do I detect a lot of sanctimonious moral grandstanding dished out in a smug, patronising manner from a supporter of a party that will never win power?
Ah, that’ll be the Liberal Democrats.
175. Spare us this dull mix of sixth form left-liberal history, meandering discussion and sentimental tripe, please.
Patrick 175 - i’m sure you are right about the Tories screwing up big time - but they don’t operate at anything like the scale of Labour’s invasion of Iraq in 2003.
178. Cheers Mike.
I am standing for the County Council in May.(Lab if you hadn’t already realised)
Me thinks I’m buggered!
As regards tonight’s polls, the surprising thing to me is how very little the Tory and Labour GE seats spreads have moved on Spreadfair - barely at all in either case (despite yours truly having closed his sale of Tory seats bets).
Either the betting market doesn’t believe the polls or everyone’s out on the town before the booze prices go up and haven’t yet noticed. I just can’t believe that the Tories aren’t at least 310+ to buy, compared with Spreadfair’s current price 304.
177. Labour did remove the upper limit. At one time, there was a maximum NIC payable; not now. I presume you mean a single NIC band of 11% once earnings rise above a certain level, rather than the present upper band of 1%. That would make for some interesting politics, especially among all the well paid commentators in the media.
175
UNISON wouldn’t want to be crushed like the NUM.
180, Casino,
I guess this illustrates well what a broad church each of the main parties are. For example, we are both Conservative supporters, while I happen to find stodge’s contributions (here and on his blog) to be useful and interesting.
Plus, he’s one of the regulars that have always avoided dishing out insults.
180. Oi! I thought it was an excellent and perceptive post!
171. Illusory in the sense they were not confirmed by other proximate polls, although they were still probably within the MOE at the time.
About 1 in 20 polls will put a party’s share outside of the MOE, and is termed a “rogue”. We would be surprised if we didn’t get a rogue now and again.
So a reasonable person, looking at ALL the available evidence might say the YouGov is likely to be rogue.
178 Spreadfair offers very little these days because they’ve stopped credit betting on political markets. To get anything on you’ve got to deposit a pile of cash with them. With SI and IG you don’t.
That’s true Mike, but at least you can bet 24/7 and their spreads are often much narrower than those of Sorting or IG.
YouGov looks rogue to me. 9-10 per cent more realistic.
Re BBC. A quick glance at BBC editorial guidelines will tell you outlets never headline opinion polls. The trend, not individual polls, should be reflected as part of any report. (remove the focus on an individual poll which could be rogue and out of step)
175. Patrick.
Calm down mate. It’s Saturday night.
Rest easy. I have it on reasonably good authority that Cameron won’t be taking on the NUM and Dockworkers for *at least* the first 6 months of a Conservative government.
My definition of a rogue poll is one where you don’t agree with the numbers.
Given the historic over-statement of Labour in the polls I tend to look at the lower end of the range of polling shares that the pollsters are producing.
When was the last time a pollster under-stated Labour?
However I do think that the YouGov magnifier might be at play here and I’m always more comfortable with ICM
#167 - something like 90 litres of wine, 110 litres of beer, 10 litres of spirits.
You can pre-order ready for collection when you arrive - some companies (Majestic?) even offer to pay your ferry costs if you spend £300 or more.
re 191. I would have bought everything on the Tories upto 308 seats tonight if Spreadfair had not stopped credit betting.
What a choice!
A bunch of Labour Stalinists or a bunch of neo-con Tories.
Hey glad I don’t spend much of the year in the down-hill UK Ltd.
We just come home for the health benefits.
Malcolm
After what seemed like the quietest day on PB.com for months, tonight’s polls have certainly livened things up!
A significant number of previously everyday posters appear to have left the site - I wonder if this could have anything to do with the very unpleasant posts we have seen from a small minority just recently? Certainly if this were to continue, I for one will be off.
Well, I never expected *quite* such a reaction to the Budget. We have to assume that in May, Labour will be polling *below* the 26% they got in 2004.
167
120 bottles of decent bordeaux, 3200 B and H plus assorted other puchases on my 3 trips per year will do me just fine. Happy to contribute to the French economy on this one. £3 for a pint of beer.. er no thanks (except occasionally). £6 for a packet of B and H errr no thanks (3.50 in France)
Ciustoms only stop you if they dont thinkj its for personal use. Three trips a year for such small quantities is perfectly ok.
198.
Been far too busy excited about Cheltenham to be worried about the budget and the latest developments.
I am sure many others have been far more fascinated by events at prestbury park than the westminster village.
[198] - Whilst people may be put off by an atmosphere that they don’t like, it’s also perfectly natural for their to be a churn in the people able to contribute to any ongoing organisation, whether an online forum, book group, or government cabinet…
198. It could be because it’s 9pm on Saturday night and only us lot are sad enough to be here?
203. hey! i’m here cos i’m potless (just bought my first car, insurance etc is crippling me).
203, hey! I’m not sad! I’m politically engaged!
Who now thinks that Labour are undamaged by tax rises and the EU Treaty?
As the Lady said “Rejoice, simply Rejoice.”
194. Mike, that’s a bit silly. How can you “agree” or disagree with the numbers, when the chance of a single poll getting a party’s share correct is about 3/1 against, and the chance of it getting all 3 major parties correct is about 45/1 ?
You can’t latch on to 1 or 2 or 3.. polls. You have to look at trends - and be able to spot likely rogues, which as I have stated *inevitably* occur with reasonable frequency.
206 Actually, taxes haven’t risen that much and probably far less than they really should have given the enormous borrowing levels, but the Government is forced to concentrate first and foremost on trying to prevent a massive recession.
[165] Well, one way to do it would be to give local councils the power to hold a referendum on whether or not to raid the fund (and suspend/reduce pensions currently being paid) to reduce the Council Tax. Of course, they’d probably need to prohibit UNISON from campaigning, e.g. by prohibiting everyone and just having one leaflet stating the position of the Council on the issue.
As a local government pensioner myself, it’s a scary prospect. But I imagine there are a fair view people here who would be happy to campaign for a “yes” vote in such a referendum, though I doubt if anyone will put their head above the parapet
[209] When I say “prohibit everyone” I do of course mean that people would be allowed to support their Council’s proposals. Anything else would be undemocratic.
209 - “Well, one way to do it would be to give local councils the power to hold a referendum on whether or not to raid the fund (and suspend/reduce pensions currently being paid) to reduce the Council Tax.”
What would the point of that be? Councils would still have to pay the pension benefits so all you’d be doing is robbing future taxpayers to benefit current ones. It’s a crazy idea that wont ever, ever fly.
203.Had one of my brood at A&E today, will be out of action for a few weeks on the football field which caused great concern because he is the goalie!
[211] I hope it is, Neil. But the idea I was putting forward was that Councils shouldn’t have to pay the pension benefits - theft if you like, but some people think taxation is theft. People don’t desrve to have their countries invaded and their families tortured either, but this government has done it nonetheless.
A lot of unthinkable things are going to happen in the next twenty years - brain implants as a condition of employment, for example.
[198] Well, even though I’ve never agreed with a line you’ve written, I for one would miss you, PfP. And now… the cricket
re 207. Rod. Why is it that you only describe polls with big Tory leads as rogues? I’ve been just looking through the posts from last September and you were not rushing in then to diminish the 11% Labour leads that YouGov was chalking up.
See
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/09/25/so-will-11-gordons-influence-the-election-decision/
213
Brain implants? Roger’s already had one of those. That’s how he became a web-bot.
‘People are coming back to Labour’
‘No one trusts the Tories’
‘Cameroon is a liteweight’
‘Well said, Nick Palmer’
‘Boris is a clown - no chance’
Exterminate, exterminate………………….
Further to 215. In fact Rod your comment when YouGov became the first pollster to report a double digit Labour lead was …
“…The Tories are dead ducks. I suspect the next election will be the last under that label…“
215 - Too cruel Mike. I just love this comment from Rod Crosby in the thread you reference:
The Tories are dead ducks. I suspect the next election will be the last under that label…
by RodCrosby September 26th, 2007 at 12:14 am
Almost Roger-esque in his predictions…..
215. oooh, nice one.
Beat me to it!
206. Absolutely. I think Conservative posters are entitled to enjoy the moment tonight and feel good about themselves.
And why not?
It’s been a long time.
208. Hope you mean taxes haven’t risen that much in *this* budget Peter, rather than not having risen much since 1997! You’d be hard-pushed to call yourself a Conservative if you thought otherwise
215. Exactly.
203/204/205 etc. I have reassessed how I’m spending my evening and decided to go off and watch a film!!
Can’t be on here EVERY night, can I?
Night all.
215. Well, it was clear at that time that a massive move was occuring in Labour’s favour, and that particular poll was not noticeably different from its neighbours…
If it had been I would certainly have commented. You can be assured that I will if a pro-Labour rogue appears in the future….
218. I still think that (more or less)…
If Gordo can’t stand the sight of Cameron, what will 16 sights of his face in a such a winning position do to him?
Its been so long that Labour has been in power that IMHO Labour posters cannot believe what they see with their own eyes, its a form of self deception IMHO. Whilst I am very happy with these polls, I am not deluded into not realising there is a long way to go. That said I think Labour are finished. Things can only get..worse. Bear Stearns on friday is just another shot accross the bows. There is a cold wind blowing / The economy is knackered whatever the spin stats say. eg (2.2% inflation)..(risible)
117
Sorry, bad writing on my part. The ‘friends’ remark was intended as a general call to arms. Overexcited. Must try harder.
Rod has his own bias like everyone else, stats man or not.
209 - Some Councils have tried to do that (scrimp on contributions). They are the ones in the most trouble, and paying the most out now in employer contributions as a result. The ones who have erred on the side of caution in keeping the schemes as fully funded as possible are the ones with the lowest contributions at present. Don’t forget many councillors are members of their funds.
Regardless it’s nothing to do with the Government, who can only change the terms at which pensions are paid, and will only do so for future contributions. ANY Govt would be on very dodgy ground trying to change the terms retrospectively.
Civil Service Scheme, for example, is different - workers only pay a token figure.
From next year, local Govt workers will be paying up to 7.5% of their salary. They therefore effectively have an ownership interest in the pension funds.
Back on the Obama pastor business. As I surf the net this is all going down like a lead balloon for Obama. Will it be fatal? I think it might. I think Clinton is now in a much stronger position than she was two days ago.
The trend of the polls over the next couple of weeks will be interesting. If Obama’s support falls off a cliff vis-a-via McCain and Clinton how will the Superdelegates react? If Clinton wins Pennslyvania by say 70/30 all the assumptions about pledged delegate counts and the results of the remaining primaries will have to be reconsidered.
Too early to tell yet, but I would be surprised if a ranting Rev Wright does not continue to feature on mainstream TV for a while yet with reappearances from time to time. God d**n America understandably goes down really badly with the great majority of US voters.
Earliest indications show the daily tracking polls jumped away from Obama in the last 24 hours. In one day of a four day tracking poll the Obama lead over Clinton has dropped from 8% to 1%:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Smaller impact with Gallp but still a drop of the Obama lead from 6% to 3% in one day.
Temporary or permanent? We shall see.
Not good news for Ken
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3559483.ece
If the “real” lead is 7-8 pts then the polls showing 2-3% leads are every bit as much rogues as this one.
231. no that isnt great. amazing how ken’s campaign is imploding, reminds me of someones elses…..
In the regional breakdown of the YouGov poll Labour is 24% behind in London. This is on a general election voting intention question but it does not bode well for the Mayor on May 1st.
215. I love that thread.
Mike, on 1st February, when Ipsos-Mori put out a poll showing Labour 1 point ahead, I posted the following comments…
“FWIW, I don’t believe this poll is any more accurate than any other poll. People here get too hung-up on each one individually, instead of looking for trends….
41. Except you should never take a single poll as Gospel. The Tories may well still be ahead, but the gap has narrowed by about 4% - say a 2% swingback to Labour in the past 7 weeks….
52. “Overall average - Con lead 4%”
I’d put it a bit higher actually, but certainly down from about 10% in mid-December….
My best guess is, despite the Mori poll, the Tories are (were?) still considerably ahead of Labour (by 5-6%)…”
In the light of this information, I hope you will be man enough to withdraw your unwarranted aspersions, questioning my impartial analysis of the polls.
227. What makes you think I am pro-Labour, when I have stated umpteen times that I have never voted Labour in my life, and probably never will?…
OT: Cricket. A bit of cheery bat-swinging by Monty and Jimmy A increased the lead and set NZ a target of 438.
NZ currently 18/1 (and cxould easily have been /2)
re 236. Fair point.
214 Well, even though I’ve never agreed with a line you’ve written, I for one would miss you, PfP. And now… the cricket
I’m really looking forward to tonight’s cricket.
There Innocent, you’ll never be able to say that about me again!
From the last thread:
“Be careful. That is a partisan Democrat analysis. Of course McCain has no healthcare plan: that is a Democrat issue. Evangelicals vote too. The tax cuts for the rich will ensure the billionaires open their cheque books and their right wing think tanks will swiftboat Obama or Clinton. Musharraf is seen as an ally (and Obama’s enthusiasm for bombing Pakistan is thrown into relief; at least Iran is seen as hostile to America).”
Actually it’s not partisan analysis. Personally, I think McCain is hugely different to Bush, but his problem is that (1) he’s of a similar position in one area (the use of military force) and (2) he’s had to pander to the base by taking Bush-esque positionings. Generally to make a hit on another candidate into a long term sentiment you need to have three linkages that show a pattern. This is why I think Obama will survive pastorgate. But if he has a third “anti-American” issue after Michelle and Wright, it would really hurt. On the McCain issue, there are about five or six things the Demcorats can point to, which will be enough to put a Bush 3.0 message into a lot of voters minds. I don’t think it will cause a collapse, but it will cause a gradual turnaway.
Perhaps the ‘tipping point’ is when the BBC start giving the Conservatives a fair hearing. It happened tonight on the News at 10 (R4). Cameron gets to develop his family-friendly policies; Labour spokesman makes a despairing reference to Sure Start, reminding everyone that is has been an expensive failure.
I’m amazed!16%? Ave it was right!!!!!
236. Rod Crosby is really just a less hysterical version of Mark Senior - a partisan commentator who cloaks his bias in a fog of largely spurious statistical analysis.
87
I’m not so sure. The Euro elections in 2009 still look like an unpopular Labour government’s best chance to reduce the Conservative vote. If they try to hang on till 2010, they’ll just be even more unpopular.
If they go in 2009, the Conservatives would have to make unpopular decisions to balance the books (as Labour would do now if they put country before party), and UKIP might possibly reduce their majority.
I think Labour will lose big whatever they do, but the Euro elections are the only wild card I can see for them.
236 - I am surprised that your estimate of the “true” lead remains at 6% in the light of these polls, Rod - I’d have thought it looks more like 9% now.
242 …. and no mention whatsoever on the BBC’s 10pm TV news of this evening’s opinion polls, instead some reference by the commentator at the Tories’ Spring conference of the leadership recognising that they still have a very long way to go.
215.tgm posted this on that thread,
“Mike, can you make sure you record all the Labourites most ridiculous claims about Cameron/the Conservatives. It will be most amusing to bring their claims back when the shine has come off Gordy in 3-4 months.”
by tjm September 25th, 2007 at 9:05 pm
Its also a wise warning for any Conservatives who get too excited about this YogGov poll tonight. Those smiling Dave’s are a nice way to end the spring conference for the Conservatives, but at this stage of the game, that’s all.
The Ides of March 2008 will go down in British political history. For the first time I think the writing is on the wall. It’s a seismic shift that has taken place, not amongst the Charlotte’s of this world (no offence) or even the Ian Browns who will always cheerlead for their cause but for the people who matter in terms of who wins the election: the middle ground. They have deserted Labour.
Blair had a brilliant narrative: it was a gentle social conscience combined with wealth-creation and a blind eye turned to the country’s private morals. Brown is a marked contrast and as I’ve suggested in recent months he is as antithetical to the liberal spirit of the middle and aspiring middle classes as it is possible to imagine.
I fear the death-throes of Labour will not be pretty. Of course, the irony is that the hardcore Tories will bury their heads in their hands when they see Blair Mk II in Downing Street in the form of David Cameron. But the majority of the country will feel at ease with itself once more.
249. Sorry - some copying and pasting in error there. Whoops.
can’t help but feel pastorgate will be a short term hit on obamas poll ratings but nothing more, and seeing as its over a month until the primaries start up again he can deal with that.
On topic, how come this poll is not even listed on the UK Politics section of the BBC website, not even in a minor text link, when Brown was the main story with photo on the front page when he was ten points ahead?
Do Labour supporters really believe the Beeb is entirely impartial?
246. Those comments were from 1st Feb. It may have increased *slightly* since then, but I see nothing to suggest it’s 9%. Prior to tonight the poll leads were 3%, 7% and 2%.
244. Yes but it takes alsorts to make a world [of difference to a political betting site].
Its all relative. Its like when Aveit says Tories take York….or Barnsley….or the whole of Scotland. Its just a question of degree. And to varying degrees, it applies to us all.
251
Those YouTube clips of the pastor are pretty chilling, I would of thought they’ll unsettle an awful lot of people. Looks like a story with legs to me.
253. Isn’t it possible that something like a budget, which effectively tells the nation the economy is going south, could cause a shift? Not as dramatic as YouGov says, but dramatic enough to show up as a Labour collpase? Remember, thats what the PA was saying about Labour’s vote after the ten council by elections on Thursday. Now we have more proof with ICM showing the Tories with a 9 month lead.
Of course, further polls are needed, but my suspicion is that the public have taken a look at the Budget and know the writing is on the wall. Added to that we’ve had Dave The Family Man, and you can see whats happened, I think.
253. Especially as YouGov is a duff pollster. They are just all over the place. I didn’t put much in it when Brown was racking up huge margins, and I don’t put much faith in this poll either.
249. I think that one clear difference between Cameron and Blair is emerging. Cameron feels much more comfortable speaking about economic matters and is able, as we saw in the budget response, to articulate his thoughts in a short, snappy way which resonates. I can’t recall a single time when Blair did something similar.
If it means we avoid another 10 years where the Prime Minister hands complete control of economic policy to a character like Brown that can only be a good thing.
The timing of the election depends on the selfishness of Gordon Brown. This is all he’s ever lived for, os does he minimise the damage by going in 2009 (and in so doing, give his county conncillors half a chance of surviving), or hang on until 2010 with an even more diminished presence in loca government and the look of a desperate man. I think his character indicates he’ll hang on as long as possible in the hope that something turns up.
258. Yes - Blair was painfully illiterate in economic terms.
255. This story certainly has legs and will be in the news for a couple of weeks. But thankfully for Obama, he acted fast and condemned it strongly. Now the story is “Obama condemns pastors comments” rather than “Obama’s pastor says nasty things”. It will still hurt him, and I don’t think he can now make much gain in Pennsylvania, but it’s come out at a good time for him to have time to recover.
I think Indiana is going to be the defining moment. For some reason the media are putting it in Clinton’s column when I’m pretty confident it will go Obama. That will be the first contest where it’ll be seen as someone winning on the other’s turf.
253 - I was referring to your 39:33:18 claim at 131 which looks like wishful thinking to me.
257 - a duff pollster that did better than their peers at the last election. Volatility doesn’t necessarily mean error.
251 I agree, meanwhile it provides a good betting opportunity, with Hills offering stand out odds of 11/8 or 1.375/1 on Obama winning the Presidency, compared with only even money or odds-on from the other bookmakers.
Hurry, these odds won’t last.
255. You don’t make it easy.
256. Yep.
259. i agree. brown will hang on and hope the british people swing back behind him, which they wont. he’s disliked and distrusted by a sizeable part of the population now, it all depends on whether the tories can persuade most of them to vote tory
257. I think saying YouGov is a duff pollster is a bit harsh. They aren’t that bad. I rate them;
ICM
Populus
YouGov
MORI
COMRES
So, for me its middle ranking.
And remember, ICM is showing a fairly dramatic shift itself. Not as dramamtic as YouGov, of course, but dramamtic none the less.
266. Does that include ICM Guardian? The Guardian effect ruins them for me.
267. Well the Guardian Effect is a relatively new thing. Overall, I still believe ICM are the best. They have a long history of stability and shifts are rare. So, when something like tonights ICM poll happens, I sit up and take notice and think that something very significant has happened….
255. unsettle who though. republicans? probably, but they don’t matter. democrats? probably, they matter, but not yet. democrats? probably not enough to seriously influence proceedings. superdelegates? this might make a few pause to think, but if obama comes through the next few primaries reaching his expectations, i expect they will consider his vetting complete.
also remember a month is an incredibly long time in this process, with the speed at which news cycles move, who knows what be being talked about come april 22nd?
261
“Now the story is “Obama condemns pastors comments” rather than “Obama’s pastor says nasty things”. ”
I’d say the story is, did Mr Obama really attend this man’s church for 15-20 years without noticing he’s a fruitcake?
Followed by, new clips showing Mr Obama in the congregation while the Pastor denigrates the USA and/or anyone with white skin.
Willie at the Tory Con…doing a turn,
‘There they were when we met at Blackpool last October, talking of nothing but an imminent election with the arrogant over-confidence that comes from too long in power. Neil Kinnock was even there to say that an election would be called and the Tories would be ‘ground in to the dust’. A triumphalist Kinnock - a sure sign that everything was about to come to grief.
For it turned out within hours that the Prime Minister who had calculated on an early election before he was found out had been rumbled already; that the leader who had prepared for the battle did not have the bottle to begin it; and it has since turned out that he is the same leader who agrees a European Treaty but can’t decide whether to attend the ceremony, calls a minister incompetent but couldn’t decide whether to sack him, calls a review of round the clock drinking but then can’t decide to go ahead and put a stop to it as he should; this is the Prime Ditherer of the nation. He reminds me of the American state Governor who once said ‘I’m not indecisive. Or am I?’
Perhaps this is no surprise, but for me the truly astounding fact we have discovered in recent months is that a Cabinet without John Prescott and Margaret Beckett is less competent than the Cabinet when they were in it.
Not only have they lost the bank account details of every family in the country and let out thousands of criminals early because they failed to plan for prison places, but we have a Home Secretary who is scared to walk down the street and a Chancellor who appeared to have dreamt he was delivering the budget and then woke up to find that he was.”
237. I didnt suggest you were pro-Labour or anti-anyone.
You decided to fill that gap. Well done.
272. So what was I supposed to deduce from your accusation of “bias”?
271. hehehe.
247 - Sounds like exactly the message the Conservative leadership would be happy to be broadcast.
Grassroots getting triumphalist is not.
270 - Exactly. Very few people except very convinced Obama supporters seem to believe Obama sat in this man’s church for the past 20 years but didn’t know anything about the sort of things he was saying.
There is already an old quote by Obama being mentioned where Obama said that Wright could be inflamatory. This looks to be a snowball rolling downhill gathering speed and size as it goes. Obama’s statements and interviews have just served to keep this on top of the news agenda and probably make things even worse for him.
272. He’s a Lib Dem. Same religion, different sect.
What a Tory gloatathon! But must be hard to resist on those numbers.
65 - seems so, Bob. The only cautionary note I’d make: we had a seven-strong canvass team out today, and we certainly met former Labour voters who are now undecided, but no switchers. Now obviously there *are* switchers or the Tories wouldn’t be at 40+, but a lot of this is people feeling that the economic outlook is gloomy and the Budget put their taxes up, boo. I’d expect it to settle in the next round of polls - but still with a comfortable Tory lead for the moment.
There has been discussion about Labour’s betrayal of the British working classes and who would they turn to.
Labour -6…Conservatives +3…who got the other 3%? SNP or BNP?
273. Everyone has bias Rod. End of.
Its down to how much they let it get in the way of their analysis.
Ding dong…..
278. erm, gloatathon?most tories here have be urging caution and the fact theres a long way to go, just because your party is stuffed doesnt mean you have to get mardy.
O/T Congrats go to stjohn on his 10.5-1 winning bet on Wales triumphing in the Six Nations Rugby today.
I had thought of dusting down and reciting my Brummie “Kipper Tie” joke in his honour, but you’ll be pleased to learn that ultimately I thought better of it.
278. Or maybe people are just too polite to tell you to your face that they are going to kick you of office at the next opportunity.
278. Ah we’re back to the professional politico’s last desperate argument ‘our canvass returns are fantastic’.
Pull the other one Nick.
278. No offence Nick, but I think I’d review the way your canvassing. To be getting no switchers at all sounds like a ropey canvass to me.
P.S I don’t think anyone believes this 16% figure but teh 40% appears to be rather stable. Prior to this I thought the gap was maybe 7 points, I’d up that to 8 or 9 now.
Just having dropped in I think this is an interesting set of polls. 16 point leads in single polls are not to be trusted methinks. However the polls have gone in steps for much of Cameron’s leadership. At the outset there was a step up from low to mid 30’s that then drifted before consolidating. Then there was a step up to 40, which drifted then seemed to consolidate. Maybe we are seeing the polling assault on mid 40’s beginning. I think it is clear though from both these polls that the Conservative Party is in a fairly strong basic position and the Labour Party is in a serious but not yet dire position. The Lib Dems have improved slightly since ditching Ming but I don’t think it is anywhere near where they would expect and want to be. Two years out the signs are increasing that the Conservatives will be highly competitive at the next election, that has got to be a worry for Labour who haven’t had to really fight for any of their victories.
278.”What a Tory gloatathon! But must be hard to resist on those numbers.”
Not at all. In fact, even if these poll figures were common in the run up to a GE, I would still feel pretty safe in predicting that a 16% swing was not on the cards in Scotland. Note, that is one long term prediction that I would love to be proved wrong on though.
I wonder whether Balls’ “Sow Wheat” outburst had any bearing on this evening’s poll findings. The great British public dislike political arrogance and to me this had a certain Sheffieldian ring about it.
What’s wrong with gloating? Labour are a bunch of incompetant shysters and all decent people should be cheering their demise.
This is all fairly mild to what we had in September with talk of another generation in government.
288…Alriggggggggggghhhhhhhhht…
Kinnock, just champion.
288.Ball’s on the front page of the Express won’t have helped, forget how many people bought that paper, I am sure a great deal many more read the headline in the new stands. Also noticed that while certain news outlets ignored that moment in the commons, others did not.
290. Indeed, and I seem to recall the member for Broxtowe gleefully joining in the chorus of Labour hubris seen on this site at the time.
293 Moet and Chandon - as a matter of interest are either of you related to Louis Vuitton?
As we seem to have a few polls one is being mentioned in the Sunday Herald
‘Poll gives Salmond a 75% lead over Alexander
Scottish Political Editor
ALEX SALMOND has recorded an unprecedented 75% lead in approval ratings over Labour rival Wendy Alexander, according to a poll seen by the Sunday Herald.
The First Minister has been given a plus-53% rating by voters, against minus-22% for the beleaguered Labour leader.
The Nationalists are also ahead on voting preferences for Holyrood.
advertisementThe poll, conducted by MRUK earlier this month, has found that the SNP would increase their majority if a Scottish election were held tomorrow.
According to the results, which have been passed to the Sunday Herald, the SNP are currently polling 39% on the constituency ballot, up 7% from last May, and at 40% of the regional list vote, up nine percentage points.
Labour are on 31% of the constituency vote, down 1% from last year, and up 1% on the regional ballot. However, it is Alexander’s personal approval ratings that will worry Scottish Labour as it prepares for its conference in Aviemore later this month. The MRUK results confirm her dreadful start as party leader has been noticed by voters.
She goes to Aviemore having to win over her many critics inside and outside the party.’
Oh dear Stuart Dickson will crowing tomorrow
Mike, if you are there, what spreads are you expecting to see tomorrow from Sporting and IG on GE seats for both the Tories and Labour?
Two more articles from the poll on The Times’ website:
Support for Labour hits 25 year low
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3559480.ece
Voters turn tax anger on Labour
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/budget_2008/article3559274.ece
Having just read the thread, as a Conservative I would echo the cautious welcome to the polls.
I never believed Labour were only 3% behind Conservatives in the couple of rogues earlier in the month and I certainly don’t believe the Conservatives are really 16% ahead now…
We need some ‘real elections’ to add some real meaning to the position but its clear that the Conservatives are doing reasonably well and Brown continues to do very badly.
Lots of Labour supporters continue to be in complacent denial but that remains a very big ppositive for the Cameron project.
I have said this before as have others, but the government is just beginning to be held at sufficient levels of contempt for anti-Tory tactical voting to unwind with possibly spectacular results.
296 My guess would be 305-311, compared with Spreadfair’s present showing of 303.1-305, so it might just be worth checking for a possible arbitrage opportunity in the morning.
295. Personally I’d take the MRUK figures as a true reflection of the position with a pinch of salt - they were well out in May 2007, swung wildly and aren’t even a member of the BPC. They also took ages to turnaround fieldwork into a report.
However I would view them as indicative of the trend in Scottish politics. The SNP consolidating and strengthening and Labour in the doldrums.
The YouGov breakdown for Scotland is interesting. SNP 37% (+19%), Labour 30% (-9%), Conservative 18% (+2%), Liberals 11% (-11%). Again not an accurate picture as the sample will have a large MOE but indicative all the same and a turnaround from the previous poll of 3rd March which had Labour at 36% and the SNP at 30%.
OT, Obama picking up 7 more delegates in Iowa as half of the Edwards county delegates switch to Obama:
http://tinyurl.com/3deql2
297
‘People do not believe official inflation figures by 86% to 7%’
There’s a surprise!
Labour heading for massive defeat at the next GE. Maybe the ethnics/EU citizens have turned against them.
300 - agreed, the pollster I believe does not belong to the Polling Council and it is wise to take their polls with a pinch of salt. At least it is showing the trend that Alex Salmond despite a minority government is still popular in contrast to Gordon Brown at the UK level.
It is nice to know that Stuart has some mates on this site.
For you insomniacs out there, who aren’t glued to the cricket, don’t forget the Oz GP starts at 5am GMT.
The Coffee House claims this as a cabinet minister’s work. I can but agree with the sentiment in the last line:
“At Downing Street upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn’t Blair,
He wasn’t Blair again today,
Oh how I wish he’d go away.”
300&304. SNP surging ahead, Tories just creeping above standing still whilst Lab and the Libdems declining. Not that different a reflection on the Scottish election results a year ago.
Interesting variation in the YouGov poll between Scotland and the UK on the British Day proposal
——–
Turning to a different topic, proposals have been made to increase people’s sense of British citizenship. Do you agree or disagree with the following recommendations?
A new “British Day” national holiday
UK
Agree 69
Disagree 25
Don’t know 6
Scotland
Agree 37
Disagree 54
Don’t know 9
PfP And who will win, do you think?
I suspect BMW have low fuel loads and will fade, Kimi will be at the back and Massa seems to have car issues ( he faded away in Q2).
If he keeps it together Hamilton must be favourite although with all the new rules there must be opportunities for hidden pitfalls.
270. Look at the headlines, not your own beliefs. I’m simply reporting facts with that statement.
276. Punters should be aware that Lurker Terry was still slamming Obama over the NAFTA allegations even after it was revealed it was untrue.
297 From the Times article…
“The Tories are ahead of Labour in the capital by 24%”
This surprised me more than anyhing seeing that London is Labour’s immigration flagship with Ken Mugabe at the healm.
27% support was always on the cards for Zanu Labour. However, I am beginning to think they will fall further. We have not seen the worst of the damage Labour are inflicting.
Immigration is still at record highs, putting ever more pressure on the NHS, jobs, crime, school, housing and prison places.
I am only glad that I dont currently live in Britain. Labour has papered over the cracks instead of performing basic maintenance.
Things are getting worse - Labour’s ratings WILL fall further.
310. To back my point, here are the headlines on the story from various webpages.
CNN:
Controversial pastor off Obama campaign
Ticker: Obama decries ‘forces of division’
MSNBC:
Obama decries racial rhetoric
ABC:
Obama Slams ‘Forces of Division’
FOX:
Obama Attempts Damage Control Over Sermons
Reuters:
Obama renounces fiery pastor’s comments
CBS:
Obama Condemns Pastor’s Fiery Remarks
BBC:
Obama spurns pastor’s 9/11 jibe
308.Stuart, come on, that’s the kind of stirring I find unattractive in nationalist politics. Down south they have one parliament and its British, so a poll like that does not surprise me. If it had been a question on independence, I suspect that the difference in polling figures would not be anywhere near as wide.
I blame it all on the Runrig effect rather than the SNP anyway.
309 Hi Witan - re Oz GP - I certainly don’t believe Lewis offers any value at 4-7. I’d prefer to go for Kovalainen at around 8-1.
310 As Hills have shut up shop for the night, I’ve grabbed some Obama for Pres on Betfair at 1.4/1, I just don’t believe the odds are going to get any better, recently he was less than even money.
312. That doesnt mean they won’t stick which is really what matters.
312
I don’t know what you think listing headlines will prove, but if it makes you happy:
‘Obama tries to move past controversial pastor’ - CBS News
‘Fallout from pastors sermons unknown as Obama attempts damage control’ - Fox News
‘Just what did Obama know about Wright’s past sermons’ ABC News
‘Barak Obama’s pastor becomes liability to campaign’ - Cleveland leader
‘Obama struggles to downplay fiery minister’ - MSNBC
316. Indeed, and I never said otherwise. I just said that the campaign has handled this very well.
My personal belief is that it will hurt him a little, but not much… UNLESS there is evidence to show he is lying, or there is another “anti-American” issue with weight to it.
317. I listed the headlines that are currently on each site’s front page. You’ve clearly gone through to find more negative ones - most of which are older stories and backing up point: the fast reaction of the campaign has changed the story.
Having to cite the Cleveland leader is grasping at straws isn’t it?
318. That, as I prefer to call the ‘unamerican’ tag, if it sticks would finish him in November.
I’ve just been running some numbers on Baxter’s Electoral Calculus model. Discounting back tonight’s poll findings by halving the Tory lead to just 8%, compared with 16% and allocating the approximate resulting share of the vote: Tory 40%, Lab 32%, Libdem 18%, produces the following in terms of seats:
Con 315 seats
Lab 264 seats
Libdem 40 seats
Although it’s unlikely the next GE will be held for at least 2 years, I’ve changed tack somewhat as a result and am now disinclined to sell Tory seats below the 315 figure indicated above. Like Mike, I’m probably a buyer up to around 308 seats.
320. Agreed. But one big story (Wright) and one small story (his wife’s comments) aren’t enough to show a pattern. It would need one more big one and one more small one to do it, in my opinion.
PfP True in those terms but Kovi will only win by default from Hamilton and Massa in this first race. Later in the season, perhaps even in Malaysia, with more team experience he will be a challenger in his own right I suspect.
Last year Hamilton started with an advantage that is often understated, in that he was known by and knew the team for years before his first GP, so one of the most difficult things for a driver, settling into a new team, philosophy, characters and style was much less for him than Kovalainen.
Now for a couple of hours kip before the start. I will record it just in case I can’t get up but it is so much better seeing it live somehow.
The last 2 paragraphs of the Sunday Times article make interesting reading:
“If Labour does perform poorly in May, this autumn’s party conference in Manchester threatens to become the scene of internecine plotting. Some MPs are considering challenging Harriet Harman, the Labour deputy leader, a long-standing Brown ally.
Allies of Jon Cruddas, the left-wing backbencher who came third in last year’s contest for deputy, want him to mount another bid for the job.”
If there is infighting and the hard left raises its head then surely that really would guarantee the end for the government.
319
I plucked the headlines from Google News.
The point is this story is not a positive one for Mr Obama, and it isn’t going away. The post interview analysis on the video interview on the Obama thread gave a thumbnail of what Mr Obama can expect. Reporter’s examining the past recordings of the pastor, finding inflammatory remarks, and asking Mr Obama if he was in church that day, or that day, or that day, or that day, or that day etc.
I don’t see why you’re getting so emotional about this.
324 O/T Hi Mike - it was a bit of a struggle, but I finally won my bottle of Oz Shiraz as a result of Man Utd’s win - but it took them 75 minutes to score, by which time your words of foreboding were ringing in my ears!
[302] - The days play in the cricket is due to end at 04:30 GMT, so even an anaemic England over rate shouldn’t lead to a clash…
[279] - Indeed. The local elections, and the London Assembly elections, will provide some pointers for this. I will be mightily relieved if the BNP do not gain a London Assembly seat, but I would have to think that it was likely at the moment.
[286] - I had noticed a similar sort of pattern in Cameron’s rise. I’m not as happy with it as you are though.
324 This all sounds like re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic to me, whereas what is required is a new Captain!
325. “I plucked the headlines from Google News.”
Fair enough then. But most Americans don’t go through Google News - they get it from the major news networks, which are mainly focusing on the response now rather than the original remarks. My point wasn’t that it was positive - just that it wasn’t as bad as it could have been, due to good handling from the campaign. I’ve said before it will go on for a couple of weeks, but I just think the edge has been taken off it.
What did I say that suggested emotion? (!)
Goodnight all.
326. Yes, indeed. After our debate yesterday I was watching closely - Man Utd were out to 1.93 at the moment they scored.
And if you saw the highlights, Derby had a couple of excellent chances to take the lead.
By the way I saw in The Times this morning that The Times Fink Tank (highly sophisticated modelling of all football) gave Man Utd an 85% chance of winning. So they were a good bet at 1/5 JUST!
Cheap Buttons
Who would have thought two or three years ago that it woud prove possible to obtain odds of 450-1 against our Jensen winning today’s Oz GP?
331 I’d forgotten about the “Fink Tank” - at one time it gained an enviable reputation for being uncannily accurate in forecasting footy results - I don’t know about its more recent record.
334 OK I really am off to bed now, having invested three whole pounds on Kovalainen in the Oz GP at cracking odds of 10.5-1, I don’t think he’ll win but he’s value at this price.
329
“What did I say that suggested emotion? (!)”
I think you ‘protesteth too much’, but I’m tired, so perhaps the fault lies with me.:-)
I don’t think the edge has been taken off this story. I think the TV/Radio/Newspapers/Magazines will take 101 angles on it, and none of them will reflect well on Mr Obama.
What he can’t get away from is, he’s been attending this man’s church for 15-20 years. It isn’t the only church in town, so he has to of liked what he was hearing there, and we’re going to be learning more and more about his pastors more controversial remarks.
“I wasn’t in church that day”, is going to wear a little thin.
333. I think it is excellent - very scientific, takes account of all results, goals scored/conceded and shots on target for/against.
It gave Arsenal a strong chance of beating AC Milan (about 70% I think).
Important to note it doesn’t make forecasts - it just gives % chances for each outcome it is looking at.
News of the World poll story online.
News of the World poll shows Conservatives 9 points ahead of Labour
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/1603_poll.shtml
335, It’s hard to say exactly how this is going to play out, but a couple of reasons to think it won’t be particuarly damaging:
- This whole thing blowing up has been on the cards ever since he started running for President, so given their track record so far, it seems unlikely that the campaign hasn’t thought their response through.
- The whole controversy gives him a chance to talk about both his Christian faith and his whole uniting / healing narrative, which are both very big selling points and help him reach out beyond tradiational Democratic constituencies. Played right, this won’t destroy his USP; It’ll actually _strengthen_ his USP. See how he’s included this stuff in his stump speech:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FsqDTVmlKk
338
I disagree. But a fortnight from now we’ll know. If I’m right, his poll rating will fall off a cliff.
338
“given their track record so far, it seems unlikely that the campaign hasn’t thought their response through.”
They don’t have a response from what I can see. ‘I wasn’t in church that day’ seems to be it, and in my opinion, that won’t hold.
I have to say I’m absolutely delighted. Puts my little bet with Peter the Punter on 20% lead this year within striking distance. One more push and we could get it post-May hopefully.
Has the Recorded Wagers page gone up? Because I don’t see it.
Regarding #171, #178… on harmonising NI contributions and income tax: although it’s now a little dated, an excellent discussion of the issue is to be found in the section of Nigel Lawson’s memoirs “The View from Number 11″ titled “The Kink and the Elephant Trap”.
The “kink” refers to the drop in marginal rate of deductions (income tax plus employees NI) for employees with incomes between the NI UEL (upper earnings limit) and the higher income tax rate threshold. The “elephant trap” was the verdict arrived at by Treasury civil servants and political advisers on attempts to tidy it out of existence once they had studied all the technical and political pitfalls implicit in such an undertaking.
To quote Lawson (chapter 66, “1988 - A Provocative Budget”):
“The seemingly obvious way of eliminating the kink, making the UEL the same as the uppper limit of the basic band was not available. This is because the two imposts have quite different bases. The base for income tax is total income including investment income and pensions, after deduction of allowances and reliefs. The base for NICs is earned income only, without the deduction of any allowances or reliefs. Since different individuals have diferent mixes of earned income, investment income, pensions, allowances and reliefs, there is no universally applicable point at which the UEL coincides with the basic rate limit. Inded, that is one of main the reasons for the existence of the kink in the first place: if there were not enough clear water between the UEL and the basic rate limit for the typical tax payer, those with above-average inventment income or pension, and/or with below average allowances and reliefs, would find themselves paying, for a time, a marginal rate of 49% (40% higher rate income tax plus 9% NICs). And the adverse incentive effects of an anomalously high marginal rate are obviously worse than the effects of an anomalously low one.”
Lawson goes on to describe how he accepted this logic as leading towards convergence of income tax and NI until it emerged that, this was a slippery slope towards abandonment of the contributory basis of the state pension and significant cash losses for significant numbers of households with well under twice average household income.
Since that time, employees NICs have gone from 9% to 10% under Lamont/Clarke and on to 11%/1% under Brown. The contributory logic of NI has seen substantial further erosion by the increase in the LEL, the replacement of SERPS by SSP, and the projected reduction in qualifying years for a full state pension from 44/39 to 30.
Lawson responded to his experience by making an attempt in his final (1989) budget to overhaul the NI system to make it as equitable as he felt it could be consistent with the contributory principle. In order to fund this he retreated from a plan to abolish stamp duty. I strongly suspect that, given the conjunction of the current NI system (with contributions above a “shadow” UEL) and stamp duty of 1%/3%/4% combined with untouched principal private residence relief, this must be one of his bigger regrets.
In this budget, Darling has made the same 2% point cut in the base rate (22%/20%) that Lawson made in 1988 (27%/25%). I suspect that there are a number of reasons that it has been possible for the alignment to be pushed through. One is the prior softening up of successive Brown budgets allowing the UEL to close on the basic rate limit in proportional (if not cash) terms. Another is the lesser political importance attached to the contributory principle by the political culture of the Labour Party (if not of the Labour movement).
In terms of the effect on the fiscal arithmetic, there may also be an effect from the growing importance of private pension contributions among the tax-payers most affected. The Treasury is actually gaining money on employee contributions because the 2%-point income tax cut is money it was already foregoing in relief, while the 10%-point rise above the UEL is new money. In the longer term this may simply increase the use of salary sacrifice arrangements to save the extra NI, but it probably improves the numbers in the short term (at an uncertain political cost).
63 - Fool. I don’t adore the Labour party - indeed I don’t think I’ve ever cast a vote for them.
I loved the way the BBC carefully dismissed the YouGov data as “an internet poll” as if it were just some quickpoll on a local rags website