Make money guessing what Dave’s first subject will be?
March 19th, 2008
Launching the new market - betting on Prime Minister’s Questions
The bookmakers, Ladbrokes has launched what could develop into a fascinating weekly betting market - What will be the topic of David Cameron’s first question at PMQs?
Normally the most watched and most speculated about moment in the commons each week happens just after midday on Wednesdays when the opposition leader gets to his feet and starts the first of the six questions he is allowed to put to the Prime Minister. The latter has no idea what is coming though clearly he can guess. The former can often try to wrong-foot Brown by taking a tangential approach and not starting with the obvious.
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It’s said that prime ministers spend hours on Wednesday morning preparing for the confrontation and certainly Gordon is no exception. But what is Cameron going to start on? Brown doesn’t know - we don’t know but now we can bet on it.
This could be tricky and there was no better example than the first PMQs after the Northern Rock nationalisation. This surely was the certain topic that Cameron would lead on and clearly Brown had a well thought out sound-bite all ready. Not so. Dave split his questions into two batches and the first had nothing to do with NR. Then Nick Clegg came in with his allocated two questions and probed on Northern Rock.
Brown then used his pre-rehearsed anti-Tory sound-bite only to find that Cameron’s second phase of questions was to probe an aspect of the nationalisation plan where he thought the government was weak. Brown had used his sound-bite and looked flummoxed.
These were the opening prices for today’s PMQs
Childcare/Family issues 3/1
China/Tibet 7/2
Budget/Taxes 4/1
Economy/Banking/Stock Market 4/1
Iraq/Afghanistan 8/1
Schools/Education 10/1
Crime/Policing 14/1
Kosovo 14/1
ImmigrationAsylum| 16/1
Iran 16/1
NHS/Health 16/1
Environment/Green Issues 20/1
MPs Pay/Allowances 20/1
European Union 25/1
London Mayoral Election 25/1
Terrorism/National Security 25/1
Transport 25/1
Gambling 100/1
The Economy/Banking/Stockmarket option at 4/1 has been the most backed and last night Ladbrokes had tightened this to 4/5. The market should be up by 9 am and will be closed at 11.am You can link to it when it opens from here
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When you’re getting 16% leads in the opinion polls, you can probably ask about whatever you like. Nick Clegg is going with Gurkha veteran’s rights: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7300521.stm
so Cameron won’t be able to use the trick you mention above.
I’d agree that the Economy is the obvious topic to go for, but I don’t see much value at 4/5 and Cameron still doesn’t seem to have much to say about it, other than his line about not saving for a rainy day.
If 3/1 is still going, talking about families seems to be where Cmaeron is at the moment - he can contrast his plans for extra parental leave with the Government’s plans to target the most challenging thousand or so children - ‘the party of the many has become the party of the few.’
Interesting times…shame I cannot post so much at the moment but am still dropping in to read most days.
If I were him I would compare the sale of Bear Stearns to NR fiasco and go with GB the pm who can’t decide on anything. 4/5 is a terrible price. The overound is over 200, it’s a novelty mkt for publicity and should be avoided.
I see the new NYC gov. has been in the news for hotels orgies. They’ll all it you know.
OT. I’ve just listened to Obama’s speech on race and it was seriously impressive. i can’t understand why he has been wasting his time with that Southern preacher ‘Yes we can’ nonsense that he’s been spouting for the last several months. He’s a genuinely impressive candidate when he stops acting and shows the danger of living on soundbites. I suspect he’ll make a very good president.
3
Yes, good speech well read, and he’s up 2.6pts on Intrade to 74.6.
More importantly, gold has collapsed so I’m very happy.FTSE to open +50 @ 5650, GB is safe….. for now.
The Express admit on their front page that they’re rubbish. Is it possible that any of their readers didn’t already know that?
An amazing new market from ladbrokes.
That they can offer, even for a short time (and obviously to only very small stakes), shows how detached the political class is from any sort of betting.
No wonder UK gambling legislation is poor. None of our political masters is interested in it.
How about Post offices, since that is opposition day debate this afternoon and its aimed at embarrassing the government.
6
What? The 4/5 price was 3/1 when the mkt opened, someone has been lumping on - insider trading?
OT
Meanwhile Next, the clothes store has reported this AM and the outlook is very poor.
2008 OUTLOOK
Retail Economy
We can see no reason why there should be any recovery in consumer spending
during the year ahead. Recent base rate cuts will do little to reduce the
overall burden of mortgage repayments as they will be partially offset by the
expiry of fixed rate mortgages which were set at lower rates than those
prevailing today. This combined with increases in fuel, tax and other essential
household costs mean that it will be at least twelve months before the consumer
has a stable year on year cost base.
The Next customer profile is dominated by ABC1 25-45 year olds, who are likely
to be hit hardest as their exposure to the costs of debt are high.
Roger - how is it possible for you to make 2 posts I agree with in the space of 20 minutes; this has never happened before!!
Cammo surely has to go on something left field like the Gurkhas - a clear case of right/wrong. Gordon will bluster his way through any tax or economy questions
8,
Thats not right. Next management must full of Tory Doomsters. The economy is in great shape.
5
Are The Express and Star both earned by Desmond? He owns the Express for sure.
4. Before Cuddles and Mark Senior join EDW in getting excited about a possible 50 point rise in the FTSE, we actually need a rise of more than 950 points just to get it back to the level at which that dear Mr Blair left it only 266 days ago.
For the record, in the 2431 days from its start on 2nd April 1984 to 28th November 1990 - under the stewardship of Margaret Thatcher - the FTSE rose from 1108.1 to 2144.3, a gain of 1036.2 points or up 93.51%.
In the 2347 days from 28th November 1980 to 2nd May 1997 - with poor old John Major in the hot seat - the FTSE rose from 2144.3 to 4455.6, a gain of 2311.3 points or up 107.79%.
In the 3708 days from 2nd May 1997 to 27th June 2007 - with Tony Blair in charge but ably supported by the greatest Chancellor ever to walk this earth - the FTSE rose from 4455.6 to 6559.3, a gain of 2103.7 points or up just 47.21%.
In the 266 days since Saint Tony left, Gordon Brown has presided over a drop in the FTSE from 6559.3 to 5605.8, a loss of 953.5 points or down 14.54%.
A fifty point rise this morning would be no more than a spit in the bucket.
These are remarkable times. Since July 2007 we have witnessed a seismic shift in the global economy. It was articulated on PB.com back in July that we were due a ‘liquidity crunch’ (i.e. a ‘credit crunch’) of epic proportions – articulated in meticulous detail by various posters. Well done. Weeks later ‘so-called’ experts, the central bankers, were proved wrong on the global economy and the posters here proved right.
Events have moved on, and we now need a new analysis to predict where we go from here.
It was said here in July we were due a credit crunch because of a global orgy of debt fuelled speculation and consumer spending in the West. Instrumental were unconstrained bank lending, and the carry trade.
Notoriously inept bankers gorging on debt creation unconstrained by effective political checks in the UK, America or Japan fuelled a global debt bubble. The way in which bankers can create money out of thin air through loan creation is one of the greatest scandals of modern times. Systematic abuses create boom and bust decade after decade, and the bankers that cause it go unpunished, as people less informed assume these recessions are being caused by cycles like the weather. House price rises do not make a country richer. Housing is a cost, not an asset. The higher the cost of housing, the higher the cost of living and the poorer a country gets . Japan endured a 10 year recession in the 1990’s following their own debt-fuelled property bubble.
How can we be foolish enough to hand control of the economy to bankers with a vested interest in unconstrained ‘debt creation’, wreaking periodic destruction on that economy. The history of the Federal Reserve in the USA is a history of economic disaster – nearly all of it avoidable, the most notorious example being the Great Depression – which began with a debt bubble created just 10 years after the creation of the Federal Reserve, with the crunch 7 years later. Ben Bernanke ‘knows nothing about economics’. A chap who spent much time studying the Great Depression seems to know nothing about why it occurred or how it is cured. Consider the following analogy.
A town of healthy people is visited by a ‘witch doctor’. The ‘so-called’ doctor is greatly respected by the people of the town who believe he is an expert in health and medicine. The witch doctor proceeds to visit his healthy patients and one-by-one tells them they are infected with ‘evil spirits’ and need to take a special medicine to cure them. The witch doctor, of course, makes a handsome fee on the medicine and become rich. Many taking his medicine suffer side effects, including nausea and vomiting. Eventually a number of his patients get very, very sick. Relatives anguished with worry call the witch-doctor, who in a very serious and sober way tells them, the patients are at deaths door. He prescribes the cure – 10 times as much ‘medicine’ as the patients took before. Unsurprisingly all the patients die.
In a nutshell you now know what really caused the Great Depression, and what has caused the current credit crunch. In the modern world we have people called bankers who may or may not have some qualifications in economics. Economics is an immature discipline which imparts little or no useful knowledge – hence the witch doctors of the modern era, bankers and economists. Their primary motive is to make money through issuing loans (i.e. their medicine). The witch doctors tell the patients they are ill because they don’t have enough money to spend, and ‘loans’ are the medicine. The more power a country gives to these ‘witch-doctors’ the faster it is destroyed through inflation. Of course, the bankers know this so adopt ‘false accounting’ methods to conceal the illness of the patients for as long as possible.
In the USA for example, only the most draconian ‘false accounting’ laws in the world, which impose 20 year prison sentences on CEO’s of American corporations can prevent systemic false accounting such as the Enron example. The same fraud is being perpetuated by governments advised by bankers with a vested interest in debt-creation. In America, the UK, and Japan bankers and donate to governing parties who then as governments do their bidding and have colluded to introduce systemic ‘false accounting’ in the compilation of inflation figures over the last 15 years. In the UK the stink has become so bad that they have actually had to rename the Office of National Statistics from April 2008. Inflation and crime data are distrusted by 90% of the population. The board of the NSA is nominated by Brown, just like the ONS. Much like the MPC, they are not really independent.
Whereas politicians are highly visible and accountable for their decisions the MPC and ONS members are not, and in the case of the MPC have a vested a debt-fuelled bubble as big as possible. Look at the minutes of MPC meeting where the refer to the ‘expectations’ of bankers as the basis of their decisions on interest rates!
Giving independence to the Bank of England was the most foolish act of economic policy in the last 100 years, lauded only by those who have no real understanding of economics. Eminent senators in the US are now calling for the Federal Reserve to be abolished and Bernanke replaced. The MPC should be abolished.
‘Inflation’ is a term with a clear and precise scientific meaning – based on change in prices and weights assigned to prices. While the ONS reports CPI of 2.5%, Capital Economics says it is 6.1% and rising. In the US while the Federal Reserve says inflation is 2% independent analysts say it is 10and has been much higher for a number of years. Someone is guilty of false-accounting. Who do you feel is telling the truth?
In 2003 Gordon Brown changed the MPC inflation measure from RPI to CPI, knowing CPI excludes 40% of goods and services, and is not a valid measure of inflation. Inflation is underreported, interest rates are kept artificially low, a debt driven bubble grows ever greater, which bursts causing the first run on a bank in 150 years - Northern Rock, and the loss of as much as £20 billion to the UK taxpayer through underwriting its loans (20% of Northern Rock loans are highly likely to default or are already defaulting).
Kingbongo. And I was just returning to suggest betting on the Gurkahs!
5 Agreed Roger …. A truly awful
Have to say the London Mayorals at 25/1 might be worth a small punt..
Big things seem to be happening on the ground locally and keeping the momentum going would be a tactically sound.
A truly awful rag !
I predict education. The Tories are still sore that Balls got away with his blatant ’schools are charging for admission’ spin to obscure the fact that huge numbers of parents are not getting kids into first choice schools.
Why does`nt Cameron say due to changed circumstances tax cuts are required alongside public spending.
This is a 1000-1 chance because honesty on all sides is missing, as they prefer to carry on with the cosy consensus of agreeing with each other.
Looks like we are going back to life on mars 1973, Heath v Wilson.
Brown v Cameron.
1 - “not saving for a rainy day” may be a line, but it is a very good one. It’s just basic financial management. One only has to look (on a much smaller scale, obviously) at local councils up and down the country. Some are well run, budget prudently, and are always careful to put money to one side, not just because it is a buffer against raising taxes when inflation rises or the Govt gives poor settlements (”the rainy day”), but because it is a source of extra income in itself. Whereas others spend all the money they have, taxes end up rising constantly and borrowing is a constant drain on their finances.
Which two authorities have the lowest council tax in the country? And what is their extra requirement on their taxpayers in the coming year? 0%.
Tory Boy. Talking about Mayors…..I think I’m pretty close to needing some address details off you.
18 - because tax cuts in this country can’t be promised in this country without explaining where the money is going to come from. And with the finances in their present state they can hardly promise to fund them from borrowing.
20. PS. I don’t suppose you would settle for half (£100) if I conceded now?
12 You really no very little about stock markets and the way they change with time and in relation to economic news and outlook . Still I do hope the FTSE goes up again today , it will stop the sky is falling in posts from the Conservative headless chicken doomsters on here for a little while .
How do I put a bet on post offices?
23,
Of course the footsie will go up this morning. Does nothing for its long term trend though does it? The weak fundamentals (highlighted by next)are still there are the footsie will be lucky if it finishes the year were it is now.
Or do you fail too see that?
21, I said Tax cuts alongside cuts in public spending.
Thats how you pay for them.
And public spending will be adjusted downwards whoever wins the next election.
But they don`t want to inform us just yet.
23. That comment would have been cutting if it had come from someone who had demonstrated even the smallest indication that they knew what they were talking about. However as it came from you….
The economy is in a massively perilous state and the true Broon legacy is the same as any other Labour Chancellor..it just took him longer to run out of money because of the growth in the global economy…
I for one hope we survive a recession but I wouldn’t want to bet either way..
Mark,
Do you seriously believe that the footsie going up this morning means that the economy is in good shape?
Where is SeanT?- only a 25-1 chance of the European Union being Cameron’s subject. Does the man not know how much this matters to people in this country!!! (You are in this country aren’t you Sean?)
re 3. Great see see that Roger - so I assume you are rescinging comment 1 on this thread -
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/05/26/could-this-man-be-the-next-president-of-the-united-states/#comment-53590
re 29. Unlike SeanT Icarus, Cameron reads the polls and knows that almost nobody gives a damn about the EU
23 Mark, please refrain from posting whether the FTSE is up or down.
Because [1] anyone interested in the FTSE can find out its value with the click of a mouse, and so it is unecessary,
And [2] the FTSE is always moving, and if you endlessly post small movements, it clogs up the thread.
Please can we have some more of the “Conservatives are the most evil lifeform in the Universe” comments. They’re my favourite.
25 Shares go up shares go down and not always in line with the current economic state , it is interesting that the Dow closed higher yesterday than it did 12 months ago although it had been higher for much of the intervening 12 months .
27 There will not be a recession in this country , we have not got a Conservative government , they are the party which always has a recession when in power .
27 of course we will survive a recession - and in 15 years this will happen all over again as the public decide they need a government that splurges their money and that their house is a never-ending source of free money.
33 Wish granted! Thanks!
23. Gosh - a Mark Senior post I half agree with. The media obesession - carried over here, unfortunately - with how the stock market does is somewhat annoying to economists who are trying to explain what is going on, or predict what is likely to. The relationship between the buoyancy of the stock market and the health of an economy is loose at best. In the very short term of a day or two, it is practically non-existant.
In terms of assessing the economy’s health, there are all sorts of indicators that are better than the stock market, though even there, none is that useful in isolation. However, a combination of the trade deficit / surplus, savings ratio, amount of investment, growth rate, inflation rate, government borrowing requirement, unemployment rate and the nature of how each of these indicators ranks against other countries and is changing over time wouldn’t be a bad starting point. There are probably other ones I’ve missed as well.
32 No problem Gwynfa but will the doomsters stop making disaster posts every time the Dow or FTSE drops a fraction .
Ha, this is hilarious. Can we also bet on how many times Gordon will stutter or fail to answer a question?
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
12. grrrrrrrrrr, put me in the same sentance as mark senior will you !
36 A David Herdson post I almost totally agree with .
30. Mike. Yes I am! (Or should that be ‘Yes we can’?)
I not only think he’s now going to win but more importantly he’s going to be a worthy winner. When I made that infamous ‘Post 1′ !’d underestimated how far the US had changed. But more importantly i’m embarrassed that the likes of seanT could see his virtues before me!
I understand that the poor councillor in in Slough has been expelled from the Conservatives “Conservatives are the most evil lifeform in the Universe” - Gwynfa.
Some technicality about postal votes, apparently.
Seriously, who is responsible for the voting system, is it the Electoral Commission or the Government?
25/1 on the mayoral elections sounds like amazing value to me, especially as the campaign officially launched yesterday.
“Please can we have some more of the “Conservatives are the most evil lifeform in the Universe” comments. They’re my favourite”
Mine too!!.
42.mostly the government, they brought in wide ranging measures such as widespread postal voting etc to get turnout up. Instead all they did was create a system rife with fraud that is difficult to police.
30-32- the mischevous posters are out in force today
It’s got to be post offices.
I’d go with something like “Was the PM right to sell off tons of gold at under $300 per ounce?” or suchlike. It’s very specific, ties in with the current global turmoil and Brown can’t possibly deny it.
The NR/Bear Stearns comparison would also work well.
47. some insider info? ‘wink wink, nudge nudge’ say no more!
There are stones in my garden, and there are no Tigers. That means the stones keep the Tigers away.
Logic according to Mark Senior.
36 - The great benefit of the FTSE is that it is one of the all too few statistical bases NOT capable of being fiddled by the Treasury/Chancellor.
As a measure of the overall value of our top 100 companies - in which most of us have an interest, if only because our pension funds are invested in them - it is a fair indication of how we are doing.
Of course short term movements are, in and of themselves, not particularly important. It really doesn’t take an economist to tell us that.
That it why the figures I gave earlier in this thread covered 24 years of data - not just today’s rise of 37 points (as I write).
I heard labour mp stephen pound talking about the sale of cheap gold by Gormless Gordon, his reply was yes but we spent it on good things. So that’s okay then.
$990 spot price. Nice one.
I said post offices in post 7, I do wonder if its too obvious though.
34. I actaully meant avoid going into a recession at all rather survive the event itself of course…I am betting most (though not all judging by the age of some of us) would survive one.
33.May have missed something but is Mark Senior suggesting that there has never been a recession under a Labour government…as I noted yesterday it really is difficult to tell whether or not its the bearded anorak himself posting or his vastly more informed and humerous alter ego.
49. It’s all over the BBC news today so Cameron would be guaranteed a soundbite. Lots of Labour MPs agree with the tory motion, so it ties in with the ‘free vote’ questions he made last week. And also it’s just a pretty risk-free middle england crowd-pleaser. I’m surprised it’s not on the list. Maybe the bookies have some insider knowlegde. *nudge nudge wink wink*
36
Quite right. Financial markets what do they know?
I prefer Mystic Darling who has a weekly column in TitBits.
54 ahhh - I did think it sounded a bit apocalyptic
55. think they’ll be a minor revolt with some labour MP’s?
“What did the Prime Minister think of my hair in my latest ‘I’m Blair 2′ kitchen sink drama documentary?”
55,
Which is one of the reasons why Cameron may not use it as his first question - Brown my have a prepared reposte.
Cameron may go for Tibet, given Browns comments during the week on Chinese local democracy.
58. I would have thought so. This is the main issue in many towns and villages and MPs have been coming under a lot of pressure from their constituents. If I was in a marginal, I would be pretty clear which side my bread was buttered.
60 - or even Czecheslovakia, ho ho.
61. true, our local MP has been coming under some pressure. after the closures my area will have half its post offices gone and only one main one left, which is already packed most of the time. be a lot worse now.
60. You might be right. The fact that Livingstone has now backed post offices might stop him. On the other hand, the fact that Livingstone criticised government policy on this yesterday would give Cameron a quote to run with. It would be good to know what the odds are.
dunno if this has been put before.
from Sian Berry, the green party candidate:
“He hates that we celebrate each other’s heritage; he hates that we try to pass on a healthy environment to our children; he hates that we look after our most vulnerable neighbours; and most of all he hates that we all expect to share in our city’s financial success. And if he’s elected he will do his best to destroy all of that.”
little bit personal and nasty from the green party.
Yes, given Ken Judical Review, I go Post Offices.
65. Where’s that from? Do you have a link?
20 Hi Roger,
If that’s a serious request, of course I will.
I’m more than happy to take you as a man of honour ; a donation to
your nearest branch of the Royal British Legion will suffice.
Kind regards
TB
67. nope, sorry.
49. Cuddles “47. some insider info? ‘wink wink, nudge nudge’ say no more!’
I thought you were 25! You haven’t been sneaking a look at your Dad’s old VHS’s again have you?
Oh it’s the Labour-Green joint statement to be made today.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/18/london08.politicalnews
70. nope, monty python is still popular among the youth of today dontcha know.
71. ta very much. allthat attack will do is create sympathy for boris.
72. Like the attacks on Livingstone did?
73. well. ever since labour began attacking him at their conference a couple of weeks ago, boris seems to have moved ahead in the polls.
74. The problem wasn’t the negative campaigning but that they were attacking the wrong areas. All the nazi toff stuff was a complete waste of time and made them look ridiculous. They should concentrate instead on the competence angle.
Tell it not in Gath, publish it not in the streets of Askelon; lest the Tory doomsayers rejoice, lest the real economists triumph.
The good news is that we won’t be getting stock market updates from Mark Senior for a little while.
71. Newt/Hippy alliance .dear god what strange bed fellows and what monstrous off-spring that would spawn…
Boris can be attacked in lots of ways..personally the competence angle seems the best bet from labour..these viscious attacks with no basis in reality just dont ring true against fluffy Boris.
They did against, for instance, Michael Howard but Boris…? It makes me think that this is very much aimed at getting his core out to vote but I am guessing would not play well with any person with more than two brain cells or who does not have a Q’uaran in his back pocket.
75
Agreed Boris eats black babies won’t cut it. I think Grasper has done for Livingstone. Those sex pest emails were worth about 3%+ alone.
It’s fitting if not ironic that it was, to an extent, race which will end his KL’s career. Saying he would give Grasper his job back was the final straw.
The Livingstone-Berry nexus speaks volumes about the Livingstone-Paddick relationship. Why cosy up to the Greens, whose voters will almost certainly back Ken second anyway, if the Lib Dems’ endorsement was in play?
79. I doubt Clegg would authorise any party alliances at this time.
75. true, however after all the revelations over wasted money and the less jasper debacle, attacking boris’s competence seems like hypocracy.
76 The bad news is that prats like you will continue with your doommongering .
75: Anything Ken or his Labour lackeys say about Boris will fall flat, they need to Swift Boat him.
How about a book on who will be the first government minister to be wheeled out to say that there’s nothing wrong with the electoral system and it takes all issues of voting fraud seriously and has addressed all the problems?
80, what could Clegg do if Paddick defied him?
85. Cry.
As a gentle observation on Mark Senior I note that he prefers to look at the micro level to forecast future macro level changes.
Hence we have the focus on local by elections and one day FTSE changes, as something very significant.
Me, I think we need to look at the overall trends such as annual council elections and national polls to forecast the macro level of a future GE.
78: “It’s fitting if not ironic that it was, to an extent, race which will end his KL’s career.” We know from the discussion of Enoch about your views on race, EDW, but you do realise that your candidate hasn’t actually won yet?
re 84 the sad truth about the postal vote system is that it was created under the leadership of John Prescott.
Enough said?
68. Tory boy. It’s done. A cheque for £100 is winging it’s way to the British Legion Pall Mall. Well done on your bet. Even money at the time would have been ridiculously generous of you if it hadn’t been a charity bet.
As it is I feel noble sending the check and you can feel virtuous for winning it. If by some freak chance Ken should win I’ll send Christies Hospital the money they would have won and let you know so we can both feel virtuous all over again!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/19/ccjeff119.xml
Jeff Randall dismantles Greenspans reputation. Does anyone know if he’s still Gordon Brown’s special advisor ??
52. What an idiot Pound is. The proceeds of the gold sales weren’t ’spent’ on anything. They were invested in foreign currencies instead. The composition of the reserves was changed, that’s all.
Meanwhile, another example of this government’s willingness to waste colossal sums on politically correct nonsense. Sinn Fein says Bloody Sunday inquiry ‘not necessary’.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/19/northernireland.northernireland3
88 Mr Nick. Political parties that have been in power for too long become so arrogant that they turn a blind eye to malfeasance in their ranks. All power corrupts…..
It happened to the Conservatives in the 1990s and is happening to Labour in Govt and in London, right now.
Iraq may be worth a punt as its the 5th anniversary and the opposition are pushing for an inquiry
John Redwood may be socially inept but he sums up the govts handling of Northern Rock perfectly@
Monday 17th March: “A quick haggle, a visit to the lawyers, and a bank is bought and rescued over a week-end in New York. That’s the way to do it. It makes the UK’s attempted private sector rescue of Northern Rock look ham fisted, long winded and ultimately unsuccessful in comparison. “
78. Agreed. The irony of it all is truly delightful. The man who cynically played the race card over and over again brought down by the issue is simply delicious.
Nothing like it since the fall of Jonathan Wild ‘thieftaker’ or Robespierre’s appointment with Mme La Guillotine.
o/t
just a little snippet update from the OK polling report reproduced below..
UPDATE: Tables now up on ICM’s website here. The difference between the lead here and the lead in YouGov’s poll was actually mostly down to ICM’s topline adjustment for the “spiral of silence” - the theory that some people who say don’t know are actually supporters of an unpopular party who are too bashful to admit it to the interviewer. While people still refer to this an as adjustment to make up for “shy Tories”, for the past five years at least it’s normally favoured “shy Labourites”. This month ICM’s unadjusted figures would have been CON 43%, LAB 28%, LDEM 21%.
93
So what?
Meanwhile in the Democratic candidate race betfair has the best odds on OB at 1.39 (Paddy Power only pays 1.29)
Betfair also have the best price on HC at 3.8 (VC offers only 3s)
64,
It would. I suspect quite low though.
I can’t understand this post office thing. Who goes there anymore? Pensions and benefits are usually paid to your bank, car tax can now be done online, and you can buy stamps anywhere in the unlikely event that you want to use snail-mail. Just about the only reason for going into one is to get a passport application form - and you only have to do that every ten years.
98 madasafish. Maybe “So what” to be the line that Cameron runs with at PMQs?
97 Maggie Thatcher Fan, thanks for pointing out the ICM update. A 15 point lead with ICM (unadjusted for shyness) does help explain the 16 pointer from Yougov.
But are shy Labour supporters likely to bother voting?
101. It may seem like that Mike for people like myself living in London, but if you’re in a one horse village where the pub has closed down and the post office/village shop is about to go, then they suddenly become a lot more important.
@ 4. Gold has collapsed? at $1006 per ounce? And FTSE up 50?? Hmm, at 09:50 it was DOWN 50 at 5550. GB is on a slipping downhill towards the abyss
O/T - Bank shares down quite sharply, HBOS off by 8% or so. One wonders what the sellers think they know or have heard?
Interesting thing opinion polls. Does anyone actually think that if somehow a general election was called today, and held soon after, the Tories would win by 15 or 16 percent. No doubt Labour would lose, but I doubt the margin would be so large. Does anyone else agree? The act of calling the election alone would change things. So what value are the polls so far out as a predctive tool? A vehicle for protest only perhaps?
Clearly this is a time for a Labour supporter to be in a philosophical mood.
Returning to the original post I will take some of 25/1 about National Security etc.
Highly likely D.C. will try to take the wind out of Gord’s sails as Gord is due to make a statement later in the day regarding the same topic.
I think (hope) Cameron will go on the disgraceful way the MOD is trying to gag coroners for being critical of the MOD when soldiers are killed because of MOD neglect. Quite disgraceful!
The other choice should be something topical. Maybe the way inflation is being calculated and the face the public knows through their every day experiance that inflation is above the governments official figure.
105. Roger’s Barclays investment is just looking better and better
106,
The Tories would win a majority so would have a double digit lead.
Ooooooo of course, post office closures is another sure bet, I would think.
Mark Senior.Your posts are so weird.Is it supposed to be funny- or just old-fashioned EHM?In last thread, you accused Cons of wanting financial disaster to achieve power- totally crazy.Pension funds? Inflation? Exchange rate? Savings? In the nursery where you belong, its called cutting off your nose to spite your face.You have no respect for people with other opinions- who believe that the policies of this government are (and always have been)a disaster.
To be fair banks are just giving back all yesterdays gains.
Barclays still above their low.
102
I always thought that Labour voters were less likely to vote than Tory voters so I am a bit flummoxed. Interestingly UK polling calls it a decisive change but then goes on to say that they dont know if it will last. I guess that’s even handed!!!
What I have noted on the stock market is falls followed by rises then fall then rises again, but each time the baseline is lower than before, I am told this is classic bear market activity, and that the stock market is 12-18 months ahead of what is going to happen to the economy. If true “things are only going to get better ” rings hollow now. Its going to be a rough ride.
110 Forgetting “the my party is better than yours stuff” for a minute. I think this is interesting.
I suspect if a pollster called me and asked me if I was certain to vote or who I would vote for, I suspect I would be tempted to register a protest. There is no cost to me. But if I was faced with a Cameron govt tomorrow, I would do my duty.
101: Mike, when it is your only nearby place to buy a paper, get out cash, or get basic groceries as TT says it has importance.
I agree.
The Tories are the most evil life-form in the Universe.
The Dalek race bows down before them.
We obey the Dark Power of Cameron. We obey…we obey. Please - don’t hurt us….
I’d think it ought be about Tibet, and probably will be. Virtuous first section, then something contentious for part 2.
I’m suprised you think Tibet is a virtuous cause Nick. Aren’t the Tibetans a bunch of counter revolutionary splittists in your book?
Or perhaps you were just being sarcastic.
Would the price for NR (based on Bear Stearns $2 a share) have been 25p? If so I think we might have had a few squeals from NR shareholders don’t you think. No one has asked the Bear Sterns shareholders if they mind their shares being taken from them at $2 - I am not sure it is over yet.
113 - Well the Banks are down by 1-2% in general but HBOS and Bradford & Bingley are down 8% and 6% respectively. There must be information or rumour around these two in particular.
116 - But that is never the case in London…
re 106 according to Smithson’s law, with guaranteed airtime for Dave then the Tory lead could only go up. It will be interesting to see if this natural law is confirmed in the next GE.
Re Post office - surely they should offer existing management the opportunity to run as a franchise - especially in rural districts ?
118. He only tries that tactic every now and again and he used it last week. After recent polling I think it would be much more likely that he would want to go on an all out attack.
Don’t be silly - Daleks don’t bow to anyone! - Not physically possible! (cf Cherie’s curtsey)
121 - Well the Bradford and Bingley is, like the Rock, very reliant on mortgages.
118 All this agreement going on today! Rogr talking sense. Now Nick!
Think it will be Tibet too. It will be to ask Gordon whether he will agree to meet the Dalai Lama (he started with Darfur last week - seems to be trying to play the statesman bit…) Cameron gets a Living God onside. Plus he can have a dig at “McCavity Brown” if he doesn’t get a positive answer.
52 - What exactly are the details on GB’s selling of gold reserves? (i.e. when did he sell it, how much did he sell and at what price?)
120. Bear Sterns shareholders got $2 or nothing. Without government pandering to the NE for the GE it should have been 25p or nothing. Without govt support NR would have been bust within a week.
re 108 after all strawberries have gone down and sod the fact that petrol has gone up 25% in 6 months.
If I was Cameron and I’d heard about this betting thing, it would be hard to resist having some fun every now and again.
re 120 those who bought at $2 yesterday have now trebled their money.
I confess I am surprised by the Livingstone/Green Non Aggression Pact. It looks like bad tactics for both parties. The Greens are seen as fellow travellers, and Ken alienates other second preference voters.
118. This has been an enjoyable thread. I hope Mike makes it a weekly occurence. It allows lots of topics to be brought in whilst still maintaining the common thread.
125
If i were DC , I would deconstruct what Yvette Cooper said on the R4 1pm news yesterday, It was a complete fairy tale.
re 132 I agree. I wouldn’t be surprised if some CCO minion was dispatched down to Ladbrokes to plump the party’s funds on Gambling. Would do away for the need for Lord Ashcroft.
136. what did she say?
If someone (Conservative Central Office) have a bet with someone (as an example Lord Ashcroft) about something such as the questions to be asked at PMQs and Ashcroft loses does this have to be declared as a political donation by the Conservatives?
106 If there were an election next month I think it more likely that the Conservatives would win by a lot more than 15%.
140 Really? How much more?
135 - I agree.
My money is on the post offices, because it’s an easy issue to embarrass the PM.
118,
Not agreeing with me are you Nick?
D.C. has to beware on the economy this week as Gord will counter with this news
U.K. February Unemployment Declines to Lowest Since 1975
By Brian Swint
March 19 (Bloomberg) — U.K. unemployment fell for a 17th month to a three-decade low in February, driven by last year’s economic expansion.
Claims for jobless benefits dropped 2,800 from January to 793,500, the lowest since June 1975, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists expected a decline of 5,000, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists. The jobless rate stayed at 2.5 percent.
Record employment may cushion the economy as higher credit costs slow the pace of growth. The Bank of England has cut interest rates twice since December to shore up spending as the economy heads for its worst performance in 16 years.
I’ll take 5/4 the economy, 3/1 bar
134 - Are you sure you’re not looking at that through the eyes of an activist? I cant see why an ordinary Lib Dem voter would be less inclined to give Ken a number 2 because he has called for a number 2 for the Green candidate.
I’m just surprised that Ken / Sian still dont seem to have learned that Ken wont win by demonising Boris because too many people like him to believe that he’s as malicious as they are trying to make out.
However there is a PO debate later - he might want to keep the Con powder dry for that.
138
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/mainframe.shtml?http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/news_promo.shtml?link
listen in at 15 minutes
88
Nick you’re obviously a bit grumpy this morning never mind, I’ll put it down to your advancing years and leave it at that.
I’m just off to get your Guardian, prune juice and elastic medicated hosiery. Won’t be long, dear.
147. cant, am at work. I’ll listen to it later though ta.
130. Indeed. And the really funny part is that after months of prevarication and vast sums of taxpayers’ money put at risk, 2000 jobs are still set to go at NR…and probably a good deal more.
So Brown & Co have nothing at all to show for their short-term political meddling..except a vast public sector liability. Much the same as in so many other policy areas.
Objectives of PMQs:
1) Sound bite for the news
2) Look good (better than opponent ) in HoC.
3) Err that it.
Would have thought that it was between Post offices and the London Mayor with Post Office - more national appeal - favourite
149
PS she said in essence that the Govt had cut debt, (untrue), accused the Tories of unfunded tax promises, and then said that we needed to put more money into the economy(err surely thats unfunded if we havent got the money). Even the BBC interviewer ssemed a bit short with her..
Don’t panic !
These rumours are making some people a killing on the SE.
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of England said there is no substance to a rumour that Easter leave for MPC members has been cancelled.
‘This rumour is absolute rubbish,’ a spokesman told Thomson Financial News. There were rumours in the market that the MPC was planning to meet over rumoured emergency funding for HBOS (LSE: HBOS.L - news) .
HBOS earlier strongly denied the rumour, saying it is ‘one of the world’s strongest financial institutions, with one of the world’s strongest balance sheets.’
152. the BBC interviewers seem to be sick and tired of being spun at so much and have started acting like they’ve been to paxman boot cmap.
153 HBOS may be denying the rumours but their stock plunged 17% at one stage this morning and they’re currently still over 10% down. The next Northern Crock? Possibly, if Bradford and Bingley don’t beat them to it.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/03/19/11714/panicky-banks/
HBOS says rumour turned to BoE for funding is ‘complete and utter nonsense’
60m shares traded, the news caused the shares to rebound but only dead cat bounce. There was a rumour that the MPC had cancelled easter leave to discuss HBOS. Price down 9.3% on the day.
27 There will not be a recession in this country , we have not got a Conservative government , they are the party which always has a recession when in power .”
Oh right. So this country has never had a recession when a non-Conservative government has been in power? Why not read a bit of economic history.
What do Ladbroke’s do about combined questions?
e.g. if Cameron asks whether Brown will join him in welcoming Bozza’s plans to sort out transport in London (if indeed he has such plans) is that about the mayoral election or transport? Or if he asks why the Budget didn’t do more for working families (if indeed it didn’t) is that families or Budget?
Seems like lots of prospect for uncertainty in the result of this market.
I reckon cameron will ask at least one question about the ghurka’s.
I believe HBOS is now trading at below BV so theoretically it’s an absolute steal at these prices. Curiously nobdoy seems interested. If the government handle any HBOS liquidity problem the way they did NRK then the UK really will be in a mess banking wise.
the unemployment numbers should be boasted about by Gordon as much as possible because as a backward looking indicator they more than likely reflect the highpoint of the current cycle.
If RBS goes below 280p I’ll be back in there.
1. CCHQ could go to the official inflation calculator and come up with an inflation rate for the Brown household. Still believe it’s only 2.5%, Prime Minister?
2. Post Offices are a certain runner, but probably second, as Brown will be expecting them first and is always overstressed by the second set of questions.
Does he agree that it is honourable for his honourable friends to vote against Post Office closures this afternoon as so many of them have promised their constituents they will try to save them?
3. I’d steer clear of Tibet. It’s not a clear “China bad, plucky Tibetans good”, story.
160. Logically you are correct KB. However what happens if all over the country people with money on deposit at HBOS shart withdrawing on these rumours and putting some/all of the cash elsewhere to spread the risk ? The market is spooked.
[101] - Well, I often have cause to send parcels. Also, the nearest free cash machine is a brisk 20 minute walk from where I live, which is in a city. I can understand that the pensioners who live around here would want to collect their pension from a local post office.
In rural areas the government should be doing everything it can to make it easy for people to use cars as little as possible., not least because of those people who don’t have one. Closing down rural post offices isn’t going to help.
Obama’s speech has been posted dozens of times on youtube and is getting millions of hits overall.
Will Smithson’s law of coverage apply over this?
The second most popular political video is an attack over Hilary’s record on Iraq.
164. i havent been able to watch it yet, sounds good though.
£ down 2% against the dollar they day after the fed slashes interest rates - robust Uk economy ?
160. My addition to the unemployment figures may not have registered yet! Hopefully i won’t be out of work long but as someone who has just spent a load of cash plus time on gaining qualifications in the finance sector CEMAP & CEFA will be hacked off if all the jobs go! (Mind i was looking at the CAB initiative to give advise to the debt destressed.) This happened when i trained to be an IT bod in 1999 / 2000. So maybe its my fault the financial services problem! As i am jinxed it would seem!
166. Sorry 0.5%. 2% vs the yen.
Obama’s speech is the second most popular video on youtube today.
No1 is a video of a robotic dog running through some woods:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1czBcnX1Ww
Slightly disturbing.
162 - I bank with HBOS and just this week sought to withdraw a five figure sum. Because Halifax is not a clearing bank, the branches don’t have much excess funds in branch, and this was not straightforward, since money needs to be booked in advance.
I assume Northern Rock was similarly run which may be why those queues built so rapidly. On such things are panics built.
[115] - What you are saying is that you think the reality of an election would concentrate minds. That only works if there is a danger against which the public thinks they have to “do their duty” to prevent.
That is one interpretation of the 1992 general election result. People were not enthusiastic about Major, and would probably have preferred to be rid of the Tories, but they felt they had to do their duty to ward off the tax rises promised by Labour.
Obviously, as a partisan supporter of Labour, you still fear the prospect of a Cameron government enough to vote against it, even if you’re not enthusiastic about the Labour government. Whilst I don’t think the general population is enthusiastic about the prospect of a Cameron government, in the way that many people were about Blair by 1997, I’m confident that he has done a lot to reduce the fear/distaste that many people felt about the Tories from 1993-2005
I don’t like it, but I don’t think there’s much point in ignoring it.
How is this for an analysis of the problem? From the MPC minutes for March:
“2 Sentiment in international credit and money markets appeared to have deteriorated over the
month. Term interbank spreads had risen in the US and UK money markets, probably reflecting
heightened concerns about counterparty credit risk. Conditions in primary markets for securitised
assets remained difficult and there had been a general widening of spreads on asset-backed securities
(ABS). Spreads on US and UK investment-grade corporate bonds had risen sharply. Spreads had also
risen in the US municipal bond market.
3 It was difficult to pinpoint the precise reasons for this change. The recent financial reporting
season for European banks had not produced any major unexpected losses or problems with reported
capital buffers. There had been some encouraging news about the possible recapitalisation of the
major non-bank financial guarantors (the ‘monolines’). However, as various asset prices fell, highly
leveraged borrowers were being forced to sell assets in the face of increased margin calls, thereby
possibly amplifying the downward movement in asset prices. That further encouraged lenders to try to
reduce overall exposures to such borrowers. These concerns had probably been heightened by
developments in the US municipal bond market and the failure of the Peloton Partners ABS hedge
fund in the United Kingdom. Increasing default rates on US mortgages had brought into question the
quality of securitised mortgages with higher credit ratings than those in the sub-prime category. The
continuing uncertainty about where asset prices would settle was discouraging potential investors from
buying, not least because they might fear posting substantial mark-to-market losses in the short run.”
Were doomed I tell ye!!
For those arguing that employment is only being supported by the public sector, here is a little nugget from the ONS.
“Public sector employment increased by 7,000 (seasonally adjusted) in the fourth quarter of 2007 to 5.778 million. This includes employment in Northern Rock following its reclassification to the public sector effective from 9 October 2007. The number of employees in the Civil Service decreased by 3,000.
Employment in the private sector increased by 159,000 in the fourth quarter. This compares with the increase of 7,000 in the public sector.”
So after adjusting for Northern Rock public sector employment rose by 1,000 and private sector employment rose by 165,000.
160. Banks do seem to offer alot of value at the moment in the long term. Still there is no one way bet - Look at the turkeys who invested in Northern Rock after september, particularly the irritating bloke who invested even more money in it - then demanded tax payer cash when he lost it all. Then there was that bloke who invested £400 million in Bear Sturns……..
162 Yes that has to be a real possibility: if ‘HBOS share price collapse’ makes it to the news.
If we had the old Pre-Brown policy framework Mervyn could invite the other banks in for a chat and they could all work to protect HBOS and/or resolve any problems. That can’t happen now, and the other banks will now expect HMG to pick up the tab if needed.
Thanks Gordon, another great piece of work from the Master of Economic Strategy
Ah but will Nick Clegg lead on this one?
Iraq war ‘cost every man, woman and child in UK £100′
Published by Jon Land for 24dash.com in Central Government on Wednesday 19th March 2008 - 9:53am
Iraq War ‘costs every man, woman and child in UK £100′
The bill to the British taxpayer for military operations in Iraq is more than £6 billion - and rising.
That is more than £100 for every man, woman and child in the UK.
But the fallout from the 2003 invasion has reached much further than the public purse.
It has tarnished Tony Blair’s reputation forever and left Britain and the rest of the world more reluctant to intervene in far-flung countries.
Comparisons with the US involvement in Vietnam were quickly batted away by Downing Street and the White House for some time into the Iraq incursion.
Five years on, it is more difficult to so swiftly dismiss the parallels as the engagement in the Gulf state has become bogged down beyond most earlier expectations.
Last week, it was revealed that the costs have spiralled as the engagement has worn on.
Forecasts for the current financial year put the price of operations in Iraq at £1.449 billion.
That was up from £956 million last year and higher than the £1.3 billion it cost at the height of the conflict in 2003/4.
160
Anyone looking at HBOS chart would say “stay clear”
ditto Barclays and RBS…around £3 and £2 respectively looks likely targets for the latter two.
172
Eventually the Central Banks will be forced - FORCED - to take some debt onto their books to clear the logjams…
Where has Mark Senior gone? Footsie down and unable to answer civil questions.
Oh dear.
151. Anyone know how many post offices closed during last Conservative government?
Cameron could fall flat if Brown has this figure to hand, and it is higher than the current number under threat.
O/T. I found Edmund from Tokyo’s post from the previous thread convincing. The view is that if Obama loses the nomination then the SDs will have been bounced by race into overriding the popular and state delegate votes, which will then decimate the party.
Florida and Michegan are now not intending to rerun. The numbers just don’t add up for Hillary. Obama responded yesterday to Pastorgate with a widely applauded, staesmanlike, presidential speech. I think he is close to sealing the nomination. The only realistic way I see him not getting the nomination is if he were persuaded to accept the VP post, in a sort of Granita pact but why would he do this?
Whichever of Obama or Clinton wins the nomination, the winning candidate will have been electorally damaged to some degree by the race issue. So McCain continues to look overpriced for the Presidency. I would expect McCain’s price to shorten to 6/4 or less once the Democratic nomination is settled. It wouldn’t surprise me if the two parties edge towards Evens the pair.
171. Timothy, I don’t think the general population is enthusiastic about the prospect of a Cameron government, in the way that many people were about Blair by 1997, I’m confident that he has done a lot to reduce the fear/distaste.
Just to pick you up on this point again, it is a myth that the general population was enthuiastic about Labour pre 1997 GE. While certainly polling over the summer after GE 1997 would show that Labour was popular. The fact that Labour had to adopt so many Tory positions and even spending limits does not back up the hypothisis that Labour was enthusistically supported by the general population. People like me who voted Tory in 1997 were just not that bothered about the prospect of Labour winning as in a democracy the pendulum needs to swing both ways! (The only thing i was upset about was the bloody majority!!! 179 was far too big IMO.
177 rabid anti-chartist I’m afraid; I wish I wasn’t, but the sheer irrationality is a problem for me; I’m an old fashioned fundamentals man and they just don’t look good for HBOS. I’m just glad I took a 30% hit on my HBOS shares and sold them at 650p.
The green hitching their trailor to livingstones wagon seems daft to me. The only tactic so far from Livingstone and his team has been to smear Boris, so far this has failed miserably. So what do they do? Smear even more, then chummy up to the greens and get them to do the same!
181
I remember what I thought at 1997. I thought the Conservatives were incompetent and sleaze ridden. But I could not stand the thought of voting Labour so voted LibDem.It was obvious Labour would win by a landslide: the public were so anti Conservative.
I don’t think Labour now are as sleaze ridden as the Conservatives then.. but a lot more incompetent.
I would not vote LibDem again: they have proved to be incompetently lead.
I’ve just bought some HBOS cfd’s at 429.75
[161(1)] - That’s an excellent idea! Only problem is that, as a highly-paid person with grace and favour housing and transport, Gordon Brown’s personal inflation rate is likely to be low.
183 - It’s not daft in the sense that the Greens need Ken to win to retain their influence in City Hall after the election. The only question is whether they and Ken are going about building support the right way which none of us can know for sure though I, like you, suspect they got the tone wrong in that article.
184. You hit the nail on the head the tories were deemed unpopular etc.
Labour are lucky in that the tohe Tories have not campaigned against Labour on sleaze like the SNP have against Labour. Personally i think Labour made a lot of the tories in the 1990’s when some Labour folk then and now have been engaged in similar activities.
180 - I agree McCain is overpriced, but don’t see why he would shorten once the Democratic nominee is settled. Unless it is an absolute bloodbath and the loser refuses to endorse the winner then it should see a boost in the polls for the Democrat. However much Hillary wants the Presidency I don’t think she wants to completely destroy her reputation and be blamed for a McCain Presidency. If Obama wins the PV I am sure she will concede (the only nix in this is that she may try to include Florida).
Look at Rasmussen - they have only 60-65% of Democrats supporting either Clinton or Obama. Once the nominee is chosen (with the caveat that it doesn’t become a bloodbath) that is sure to go up to 80-85%. McCain has benefited from this already - the GOP base is as united around him as it will be.
185. It looks to have stabilised for now:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/3/23174/default.stm
187
It’s muppet politics. If Ken loses, their influence falls to zero.
If you want to influence things as a third party, you need to give both main parties hope they can deal with you.
185 good luck EDW - a brave punter indeed.
187. The tone appears to be to try and make Boris out to be a right winger intent on destroying London, extremely vitriolic. Boris has been concentrating more on the issues, and Livingstones problems with funding for various groups and dodgy advisors. This seems a much better strategy to me, getting at the core of Livingstone’s campaign while in retaliation ken gets more and more personal and nasty.
Sold em at 435.
ICM data now out
They seems to imply 71% turnout at the next election - wonderful if it happened but unlikely.
Though their Turnout question is very strange
“Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others would go and vote at their polling station.
I would like to know how certain it is that you would actually go and vote in a general election?”
They seem to be excluding postal voters - especially as it is telephone poll - why mention polling stations?
191 - I think that this is a kind of ploy. The Greens are never going to abandon the pretence that they can win. However when Ken says give your seconds to the Greens and the Greens say likewise. What they are doing is giving implied permission for voters who would vote green to vote first pref Ken. This depresses the Green vote but they were never going to get to final two anyway. The Green 2nd Prefs then break for Ken and tips him over the edge. Ken is trying to play the system thats all.
178 Sorry london having to do some proper work at the moment . Thought it had been agreed earlier that ups and downs on the FTSE would not be mentioned but the Conservative doomsters just can’t resist mentioning the falls and ignoring the rises .
Desperate Hillary flies to Michigan to cry foul;
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/us/politics/19delegates.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1205925524-Lg9KxzvDyjntwLpVPl5JpQ
HBOS has been in the firing line for a while (together with B&B and A&L) the fact that it is currently trading below the nominal book value tells you that the market does not believe the book vlue, not that the stock is necessarily “cheap”.
FWIW I think we are in the point of maximum danger, but if things stabilise over the next two months, then this could be retrospectively seen as the trough. Gold down to USD 976 is a positive sign though.
no 434, sorry.
41. Roger on Obama. “But more importantly i’m embarrassed that the likes of seanT could see his virtues before me!”
I could say that’s why I’m a novelist and you’re in advertising. Ooops, I just did!
But seeing as this thread is so good-humoured and ecumenical, and, more importantly, seeing as I am off for lunch at Gordon Ramsay’s Claridge’s restaurant, I shall play nice. Welcome aboard the good ship Yobama!, you have a place on the focsle, Midshipman Woger.
I whole-heartedly agree with you on Obama’s speech on race. It was the most impressively serious speech, by a leading politician, that I think I have ever heard. Compelling, articulate, intelligent, daring, and courageous. I’m racking my brains to think of something equivalent.
Even if he doesn’t win it will go down in history. The Philadelphia Speech.
Obama’s seriousness of purpose combined with his oratorical skills makes most other politicians, e.g. Blair and Cameron, look like second raters(and Blair and Cameron are meant to be “good” politicians). Obama makes Brown and Clegg look like pathetic and self-serving amateurs.
Obama has the hint of greatness. When you listen to him speak, at his best, it’s like opening a page of Ulyssses or hearing the first bars of a Bach cantata or seeing footage of George Best in his prime. You intuitively recognise something so much better than anything else.
Whether Obama’s hint of greatness can be translated into a great presidency is a very different matter.
188
The trouble with sleaze now is all politicians of all parties are at it. See Conway. It would bring Parliament into even more disrepute if such a campaign started and would probably backfire.
Given the way Labour are operating silence IS golden.
I see Heffer in the DT is going on and on about Cameron being unfit to govern etc. He supports Hague!
All I can say is the man obviously believes in backing proven losers. A lot is do with taxation and spending policy. Anyone who thinks Cameron is going to come out and say we are going to cut Government spending by £x Billion - and by implication make Y hundred thousand civil servants redundant - has no idea of politics. It would turn many of the Civil Service against him..
Fr better to win elections and then do it… “the state of the finances on inspection is far worse ” etc.
Mike and / or others: does anyone know whether there is a market up for the Republic of China (aka Taiwan) presidentials this weekend? Could be one of the most important in the region this year.
Any betting could have follow-on bets such as “When will China invade?”, &c.
193. Oh come on. The attacks on Boris have been no more nasty than those on Ken. Being constantly compared to murderous communist dictators is hardly being on the end of a positive campaign.
Also the reason the Greens are backing Ken is quite simple: he backs green policies while Boris doesn’t.
202. Heffer is a pompous prick! Did he not saying he was backing UKIP because of Cameron and then ………… he is now backing the tories because of Hague. I should imagine that Brown appeals to Heffer due to the duo’s shared conviction politics - maybe they were seperated at birth?
191 They would be wiser to try and remain on good terms with the likely winner.
This doesn’t really give anything to either side, as most Green voters backed Livingstone on the First Round in 2004, in any case.
Given current opinion polls, it must be highly likely that the Conservatives will take the Enfield/Haringey assembly seat, and even Greenwich/Lewisham must be in danger (with a 12% UKIP vote to squeeze), and the Lib Dems could take Lambeth/Southwark.
202. ignore Heffer, mans an idiot. He hates Cameron and everything he does, mainly because Heffer has got every single prediction about Cameron wrong.
204 But the attacks on Boris have been ineffectual.
[181] - There is a difference between the Labour in your head and the Labour in other people’s heads. Whilst you probably saw sticking to the Tory spending limits as a ruse to trick people into voting Labour, for other, dare I say it, normal people, it may well have demonstrated that Blair and Brown were sensible chaps they could trust enthusiastically.
Enthusiasm is a relative thing - we all know that it was party workers and not “normal people” in Downing Street on May 2nd - but I still think it is fair to say that there was more enthusiasm for the Blair government in 1997 than for any new government in a heck of a long time. Cameron is not there yet, may not ever reach that level, but does not need to in order to win a majority.
197. You are just a joke poster now, Mark, aren’t you? Really little better than Francis or Printz.
That is not correct Icarus , ICM only take account the views of those 7/10 or higher likelihood to vote so effectively a GE turnout of around 54% . Taking 5/10 or higher would give a more realistic turnout of 62% . This change would only have put the Con headline figure down by 1% and Labour up by 1% .
208. Yes I agree they have. But that has been because they have gone at the wrong areas. The nazi toff line was always going to be a waste of time. They should have stuck on Boris’ competence to be mayor from day 1. Negative campaigning against Boris can work but it needs to be more carefully thought through then it has been so far.
‘if things stabilise over the next two months, then this could be retrospectively seen as the trough’
Dangerously close to tautolog methinks.
Heffer in full flow:
Some of us have felt that Mr Cameron is not the man to take this necessary lead. His recent statements in the course of the economic maelstrom have proved this point ever more eloquently.
It is not just his refusal to cut taxes, or to admit we live far beyond our means, or his wish to maintain Labour’s insane spending plans: it is that he should choose this time to talk about wanting to issue businesses with some sort of Asbo if they are insufficiently socially responsible. Does he think they have nothing else to worry about? Plainly, he does.
However hard it is, someone who sees the full, stark reality of what is going on in the world is going to have to come in and force change, as Mrs Thatcher did when the consensualists were thrown out in 1979. Mr Cameron, the equally out-of-his-depth George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, and most others in the shadow cabinet are not equal to this. John Redwood understands, but the moral cowards have decreed he is unelectable.
Mrs Thatcher sat in the Heath cabinet, had a part in its idiocy, but saw the light. The only insider now with the gumption and brains that might push him, Thatcher-like, out to confront today’s demons is William Hague. It is just a thought.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/03/19/do1901.xml&page=2
So in other words, he criticises but offers no solutions!
209. How come Labour only got 44% of the vote. Ted Heath got 46%! Ted Heath got greated with a ciggerette burnt into his neck in Downing Street! As i said before the mind plays tricks on this issue - Maybe you wanted Labour to win in that election and your view point is coloured by this.
204 the attacks on Boris have been extremely nasty, but also have been organised mainly by Livingstone, his supporters, and the labour party in general. Boris hasnt said anything very personal about Livingstone at all, and has kept to the policies to seem more serious and organised. This has been working, whereas Livingstone in his launch yesterday, and Berry’s little speech, were all about Boris and how evil he is. Even Gordon Brown has been bashing Boris at PMQ’S!
206 - “They would be wiser to try and remain on good terms with the likely winner.”
I disagree. They need to do whatever they can to return Ken. Ken is likely to need their votes to pass his Budget again so they have huge influence with himn as Mayor. Boris will have a blocking Tory minority on the GLA anyway and wont need Green support there and hence their influence returns to near-zero again. For the Greens the stakes are very high and the campaign is the place to try to influence things - they’ll get nothing through nice chats on the GLA after the election.
Whether they are going about supporting Ken the best way is an open question but there is no doubt that they are much better off (in terms of getting their policies implemented) if Ken wins.
210 and you continue to post without making any significant contribution to the topics being discussed . What is your point in life ?
212 That’s the line I’d have taken. And had I been Livingstone, I’d have suspended Lee Jasper the moment it was clear that he had a case to answer.
What makes me puke (most) about Livingstone is how he gets Stephen Lawrence’s mum on stage and then attacks Boris - subtext - people who like Boris are race killers. Very nasty and doomed to fail.
HBOS flying at 441, buy some you fools buyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.
I now think that Hillary has no better than a 15% chance of the nomination, but I am not sure that the confirmation that MI and FL will not re-run is actually bad news for her.
Had they been re-run, Obama would have tightened her lead in both states (both in terms of pledged delegates and the Popular Vote), meaning that seating them wouldn’t really help her. It would have neutralised her actual challenge, though prolonged her phantom challenge with extra races.
Now the compromise has been cancelled, they are either seated at the Convention giving her a huge boost (though possibly not enough) in Pledged delegates and PV, or those states are excluded entirely.
Obama supported the re-run in principle (it wuold work out ok, but keeps her alive and costs him money), but in reality neither candidate wanted them re-run. Hillary wants them seated based on the original vote, and Obama didn;t want to pay to give her another chance at momentum. It is now the battle of extremes that we anticipated all along - there will be a vote in Denver as to whether to seat them, but I am less convinced that she can win that Convention vote.
In a sense, if she takes it all the way to Denver, it is now difficult for Obama. He must either allow them to be seated on the original vote, which makes the race closer than he would like, or he must oppose seating two big states that he should be competing for. Hillary is banking on his not daring to look that bad (old politics-style) and thus they get seated on original vote.
Obama needs her to drop out before the convention, or to secure the promise of Super Delegates that if he should vote to seat the FL & MI delegations (for the good of the Party) they will ensure (with their support) that it doesn’t cost him the nomination.
However, re-runs getting cancelled probably helps Hillary - just not enough.
[206] If Labour lost those three seats, how many compensatory seats on the list would they take?
214. Heffer is an idiot, and if by moral cowards he means the country at large, then yes, we agree that Redwood is unelectable. He is a very right wing tory, who has a small following of like minded people who seem to think that, despite losing the last 3 elections, the tories shouldnt change one iota.
201- I’ve got to say that I saw Obama’s address to the conference in 2004 and was blown away. The thing is that lefties like Roger and I harbour loyalty to the Clinton’s.
Mine is based on the abuse that has been heaped on them by the right wing press. Comrade mentality. My affection for the Clinton’s still makes me hope for a Clinton white house comeback- my betting sense has been quietly heaping up cash on Obama (and Boris). But I seriously like Obama.
I think you are wrong though putting Blair and Cameron on an equal footing. Blair in opposition didn’t put a foot wrong. Cameron has blundered- PR messes, Ealing, grammar school fiasco, European people’s party. Cameron is no Blair. But Cameron is a much better leader than Brown could ever hope to be.
Give Clegg a chance- I think he will be just as good as Cameron in time.
216. Boris hasn’t needed to be nasty. There have been plenty to do that for him. Also I’m not so sure about the attacks coming from Livingstone. I think the main problem has been that while Ken took Boris seriously from the start, most Labour supporters did not. Those nazi toff attacks were a symptom of Labour complacency as they only played to the converted. Contrary to popular belief, Ken himself has been concentrating on the issues but unfortunately for him they have been drowned out by the ES-led campaign and by misguided attacks from Labour supporters.
173 - Also had a look at figures going back to 1997 to see if the arguments of Tory posters the other day had any basis in reality.
Since May 1997 public sector employment has risen by 581,000. In the same time private sector employment has increased by 2,381,000. So out of the c. 3m jobs created under Labour less than a fifth have been in the public sector.
re 171/181 of course it’s a complete myth that people were ethusisatic for Labour in 1997. Of the 5.3m voters the Tories lost only 1.9m of them voted for labour.
220. Tragic though Stephen Lawrence’s case surely has been. Is it not time to move on? By all means convict the people responsible for his murder but what inflience or credibility does it lend to Ken’s campaign or for that matter maintain the sympathy for the Lawrence family.
Livingtone is just using the Lawrence family - end of story.
re 214 if Heffer really believes that Redwood in charge would make the Tories electable then he’s completely off his trolley - if he was ever on it in the first place.
More on post offices on the daily politics now.
re 227 that should of course have been the 5.3m voters the Tories AND the LDs lost
225. and thats the problem, labour havent taken boris seriously. they assumed he would mess up, and he hasnt. now it’s too late to make him out be a joke candidate, livingstone tried to do yesterday. Boris has laid the groundwork for himself, and is now building on it. While livingstone and his team are hurriedly trying to do the same, but they are well behind. They thought they could make Boris’s serious image collapse with some vitriol, this has failed. the plan b, to get serious over the issues, might work, however Boris has been doing this for a while now.
Didn’t Heffer back the Dome? ‘Nuff said.
228
Correct. These are the sort of tactics you expect in some sleazy tubthumper amercian mayor/gov campaign. It stinks, London voters know it.
222 Labour won 24% of the list vote last time, which gave them 2 seats on top of the 5 they won at constituency level. If their vote were to drop to, say, 20%, and they were to lose those 3 constituencies, then they’d be entitled to 3 seats on top of the 2 constituencies they won.
227- I can remember 1997 when people were non plussed about labour coming back. Everyone was miserable, we all wanted Major, and the Tories to remain in power.
Chris A- the Labour honeymoon lasted until 2003 and the war in Iraq.
I don’t quite see the point of going onto a blog, and being so partisan.
227. Afraid it is a complete myth about the Labour party being enthusistically elected in 1997. That is not to say Labour were very popular after the 1997 GE. There is one thing that can be said for Brown - He is never going to get 90% plus approval ratings
1997 was more abour getting the Tories out - Labour did not really have a positive message. It was all about the Tories - that was the Labour Narrotive. Maybe if Labour had offered the electorate some substance in 1997, things may have been different but……
[224] Give Clegg a chance- I think he will be just as good as Cameron in time.
-Damned with faint priase
[213] yes, I did not express myself too well: What I mean is that we are entering a new phase, but more often than not a market sentiment of “we are all doomed” is a buy signal, along the lines of “the best time to invest is when there is blood on the streets”
Blears getting a grilling over Post offices on the DP. Surely this is an open goal for Cameron.
217
Well the Greens supporting Ken and attacking Boris is a scorched earth policy. If Ken loses, they are dead.
To make an everlasting Green impact you must convince all political parties of your cause. To do otherwise is sheer political arrogance cos Boris/ Conservatives could be in power for
20 years. And if you have campaigned against them you are stuffed for most of that period.
And even more likely, you are likely to find if Boris does win he will cut all your state funding (if any) to nil in retaliation. Lets put it like this: that would be my first cost saver:-)
[215,227] - Well… the third party probably took fewer votes in 1970, but I have to admit there’s not much to argue against solid figures.
Nevertheless, my point was a relative one comparing Blair to Cameron, and I believe there that my point still stands.
240. For the greens to be relevant they need their policies to be implemented now. Of course they’re going to try and keep a candidate out who has little or no interest in their cause.
238. “when there is blood on the streets” - Do you mean Rivers of Blood? Cnoch Powell was right about Rivers of Blood!
[235] Thanks, Sean.
221. Morus. I can’t see how FL and MI delegates could possibly be allowed to cost Obama the nomination. They were not legitimate primaries so Obama didn’t compete. They either have to be rerun or not influence the outcome. Otherwise the Democratic Party will have to abandon it’s name and forget any chance of the Presidency.
Childcare/Family issues would be good. Labour’s rebuttal mechanism seems to have slipped a bit recently, I haven’t seen much response to Dave’s bonkers ideas about providing more health visitors and cutting Sure Start to pay for it.
Do middle class parents really want any more intrusion from health visitors? I remember that we used to hide when ours came round. An opportunity for Gordo here, I reckon.
240 - “If Ken loses, they are dead.”
Well, yes.. that is why they are supporting Ken. Simple really.
“And even more likely, you are likely to find if Boris does win he will cut all your state funding (if any) to nil in retaliation.”
Are you under the impression that Boris is running for Dictator of the World rather than Mayor of London?
246. Cameron’s latest wheeze has sunk from view just like the post-natal care a month or so ago. The problem is that very few people on his benches or in the right-wing press give a monkeys about these issues.
241. Fair enough, one must remeber though that by nature the Labour side tends to overtly celebrate things whereas the Tories are a little more restrained on these occasions!
One thing is certainly for sure, I doubt Labour could find more than 10 people to fill downing street at the moment and publically support Brown - never mind fill the street!
On looking on Labour MP’s websites and this is how i stumbled on someone defacing a website (See i am not that partisan as i could have said nothing!) of an MP we know. I discovered Brown is no-where to be seen on any of the Labour MP’s websites i looked over!
248. if by sunk, you mean become party policy, then yes. He cant keep repeating it every week.
248. if by sunk, you mean become party policy, then yes. He cant keep repeating it every week.
247
lol
Try having asense of humour and not reading everything literally:-)
247 - Well Ken has managed to imply that if he doesn’t get reelected then humanity won’t survive!!
253 If you want a laugh, read some of the stuff that gets put up on the Guardian Comments section, whenever the London election is discussed. There really are people who believe that the election of Boris Johnson as Mayor will have much the same consequences as the election of the South African Nationalists in 1948.
Tibet. Well done.
It tibet …………..oh nooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Tibet
Tibet B******s!!!!!!!! I was on the economy
Is Cameron going to join the Cabinet?
Seems like an intelligent crowd here.
Can you name me one book you’ve read which has changed your life/outlook etc.. and that you’d recommend to others.
I’ve just finished Atlas shrugged and The Fountainhead both by Ayn Rand.
…..and am hungry for more philosophy
254 - my impression was that those posts were drafted in City Hall.
261 - As a guide to Western philosophy the best book I have read is Jostein Gaarder’s book Sophie’s World.
Nice barb from Clegg - on Brown signing the cheques but not taking the moral responsibility. No answer to Clegg’s point.
262. Never
264. what else were you expecting?
Do I win! I said Tibet (admit I said post office as well, but I was the first to suggest Tibet as well!!!)
Smugs quitely in corner…
Is the Ladbrokes market each way? - What will come second?
261. Seriously? The Bible. Specifically, if you’re looking for something with a philosophical bent (as opposed to narrative or letters or poetry), then Ecclesiastes is possibly the place to start.
261. Private Eye
224. Disagree. Blair at his best might have been a nimbler politician than Cameron is now, but Blair also told much bigger lies. Iraq, for one.
It’s the lies that permanently tarnish Blair’s reputation.
As for Clegg, he started his job with a whopping great lie - on Europe and the future governance of the country. I don’t think you can ever come back from that. He’s just another dissembling careerist, with better hair. And Clegg’s speeches are the most vacuous I have ever heard, and I can remember Arts Minister Chris Smith.
Brown we all agree on. Horribly overpromoted. A decent backroom boy, but cowardly and craven as premier. And yet another liar.
Cameron, by contrast, hasn’t told huge lies, just been averagely devious. He may grow into office, though he will surely never be great - unless the tides in the affairs of men lead him thereto.
The crucial thing about Obama is that he recognises that the public have had enough lies. Tell them the truth - as he did in the Philadelphia speech - and they might well respond. Cameron also claims to recognise this insight, but he doesn’t embody it the way Obama does.
Having said all that, McCain will probably win in November!
Cameron also discerns this public yearning for truth, but he
261. New Scientist enlightens me every week. Not really a book though
261. cant think about atlas shrugged without thinking about an episode of south park. officer barbrady learns to read, reads atlas shrugged, then decides never to read again because it was so boring.
Cameron digs at Broon’s failure to answer questions.
Broon relaxed and less worked up.
‘Brown’s responsibility is to answer questions.’ Cameron sticking the knife in.
Brown cannot make decisions is the theme of the day.
ha ha good cartoon joke from Cam.
263. Thanks james, added to list
269. I don’t do religion - no need of that concept
270. lol
re 236 and you’re never partisan Tyson?
You’re missing the point. Of course people wanted rid of the Tories, that why the Tory vote dropped by 4.5m. The majority of these were NOT enthusiastic enough to vote Labour though.
Books - Guns, Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond. About why history unfolds differently on different continents.
or Genius By Jams Glick. A book about Richard Feynman, but also discusses the nature of genius.
261. The Open Society and its Enemies - Karl Popper.
“They have no answers to the problems of this country…”
So the country has problems then, Gordon?
261 - ‘After Virtue’ by Alasdair MacIntyre - a must read
245 - ‘Legitimate’ in the eyes of the DNC.
Not allowing millions of party members a say because the DNC leadership didn’t like the timing is undemocratic.
I’m an Obama supporter, but Obama and Edwards withdrew without complaint to save money, not to obey DNC rules. Hillary made the gamble, she won those primaries, and will now try and get them seated. I genuinely think they should be seated at the Convention, and it would be to Obama’s credit if he would support it. I hope his altruism would gain him the extra SD votes he needs.
Post offices at last.
282. camerons tactic is to let Brown deal with some of clegg’s questions, then go in again.
275 - What was it? (can’t watch PMQs at work….)
276 The Good Soldier Svejk by Jaroslav Hasek - how the little man can b*gg*r up the grandiose plans of the mighty; Anything by Karl Popper and I would reccommend the American Constitution + Amendments thereto.
276 - Dull but worthy tome - Betrand Russell - History of Western Philosophy (I got about 1/3 of the way through it - Sophies World is a much easier read!)
Perhaps Partisan and obvious - but JS Mill - On Liberty
If you hadn’t said what you did about religion I’d have suggested Gospel according to St John
Not particularly Philosophical, and a pretty hard read, but Hawkings ‘Brief History of Time’ is fascinating if you’re into that stuff.
Good jokes from Cameron - makes it very entertaining but it kinda makes Brown’s No Substance attacks ring true…
Angry Clegg doesn’t really work for me but probably reassures the troops.
5: I always figured people bought the Express to use in the cat tray, or for the barbecue. Surely nobody reads it - after all, they’ve been recycling the same dull Diana story for ten years.
248. Maybe you are right - nothing from Dave on this today. But a good question from a backbencher allowed Gordo to highlight the Sure Start issue.
I don’t think Cleggo does the anger/indignation very convincingly - Gordon was able to brush off his questions quite easily.
Brown looked to be left flailing again looking for partisan points about Tories. Brown reminds me of a dog that has lost all bowl control and is nearing the end. Someobody needs to put the dog to sleep………
David Hume is the philosopher whose works continue to haunt me. A challenge to both the religious and the atheist.
286
Russell, I gave up a lot earlier on that, far too hard for me.
Portraits of Courage - not.
The Great Terror - Robert Conquest, turned me away from any desire to support left wing socialism. Highlighted the immorality and partiality of Stalinist politics. Kingsley Amis claimed that Conquest’s revised version could have been titled ‘I told you so you *ucking fools.’ But the publisher thought that the American public might not cope with the F word in the title.
273. Agreed, Atlas shrugged could’ve been cut down to 250 pages and still got the message across, thought provoking though
278. Guns, Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond - seen it on library shelf
Genius By Jams Glick. A book about Richard Feynman, but also discusses the nature of genius.
Feynmann - read a bit about him and quantum mechanics, will check it out. (I recommend Brian Greene’s “the fabric of the cosmos” if anyones interested)
279. The Open Society and its Enemies - Karl Popper
Added to shopping basket - Merci Baskerville
281. ‘After Virtue’ by Alasdair MacIntyre - thanks Morus
288. If only Shannon Matthews family could afford hot-shot lawyers to sue the gutter press for the disgraceful way they’ve been portrayed.
London shares were back under pressure again this morning amid rumours about further troubles in the banking sector focused on HBOS
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/19/marketturmoil.creditcrunch
261 I notice you are a conservative supporter. Try Michael Oakeshott’s “On being Conservative” or “Rationalism in Politics”. He writes like an angel. He seems out of fashion at the moment but what he writes is always relevant. By the way, you’ll grow out of Ayn Rand.
286. I read about the first 70 pages of Bertrand Russell’s history of western Philosophy, then gave up. Sophie’s world sounds a better alternative.
I’ve read a brief history of Time, Brian Greene’s “Fabric of the cosmos” updates and trumps it IMHO.
291. David Hume? - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Hume, will have a look.
293. The Great Terror - Thanks Dr Spyn
289 Clegg should wait for the braying mob to quiet down before speaking - the constant interruptions break his flow and take away any sting from his questions/indignation. It would probably serve him better in trying to get much needed media time.
287 I agree - I was enjoying Cameron’s gags until Brown responded. Finally he stopped taking Cameron’s bait and responded with some passion.
297. “By the way, you’ll grow out of Ayn Rand” - i wasn’t aware that i’d grown into her.
£ has now fallen as much under Brown as on Black Wednesday
http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.com/2008/03/black-wednesday-2008_18.html
Try Principia Mathematica by Bertrand Russell.
What price did Tibet go off at?
299. he may have done, but his reply was illogical. it’s PMQ’s, not leader of the opposition questions, so Cameron not asking questions can’t be his lack of answers, as Brown is the one supposed to be answering them.
298 - Sophie’s World is written in novel terms and is pitched at a younger reader in some respects. It is succinct and was how I passed my modules in Philosophy as part of my Theology A level.
301 - Dear lord, that’s up (down) there with Guido’s “the stock market is at the same level it was in Feb 1998″ for masterly analysis of Brown’s stewardship of the economy.
261- ‘Remembrance of things past’, ‘Romola’, The Bible
Just to jump into the philosophy book debate - there’s a great series of free podcasts over on iTunes from the open university
“Philosophy: The Classics is an introduction to 27 key works in the history of Philosophy beginning with Plato and Aristotle and including the work of Machiavelli, Hobbes and Lock”
278 Feynman is surely best sampled direct from the man himself — I’d recommend “Surely, You’re Joking Mr Feynman” …. and then move straight on to “Photon-Hadron Interactions”
Kevin Maguire makes a good point on the Daily Politics. Cameron avoided asking any questions where spending commitments would be involved. Both Gurkhas and Post offices would have led to return questions on tory spending. Much safer to go with decicion-making, Tibet, and Westminster gossip. Not sure if any of it will make the news though.
Also, I just noticed this:
‘Mr Brown rebuffed those claims and said it was interesting Mr Cameron had no questions on the global economy, NHS or local services. He said this was because the Conservatives have “no answers to the problems of this country”. ‘
from BBC. So is brown saying that we have problems in all those areas then?
302 Surely, the most mischevious post yet placed on pb.com!
Have you really read all 3 volumes of the PM? I don’t believe it!
In case anyone’s interested i’d recommend
Of Human Bondage - Somerset Maugham
The Fountainhead/Atlas Shrugged - Ayn Rand
The Fabric of the Cosmos - Brian Greene
The Anthropic Cosmological Principle - Barrow and Tipler, tough going but the bit about Von Neumann probes and the infinite universe intrigued me.
A Farewell to Arms - Ernest Hemingway
Christ Stopped at Eboli - Carlo Levi
The Catcher in the Rye - JD Salinger
The Cruel Sea - Nicholas Monserrat
Homage to Catalonia, 1984, Animal Farm - Orwell
The Selfish Gene - Richard Dawkins, saw him lecture a few weeks ago at the Philomonic Hall in Liverpool, bit of a disappointment in the flesh unfortunately, his earlier works are his best.
I found Roger Scruton’s ‘The meaning of conservatism’ quite readable as far as philosphy goes and have been told the more recent ‘Political Philosophy: Arguments for Conservatism’ is good.
Agree with the recommendation of Conquest’s Great Terror; Martin Amis’ ‘Koba the Dread’ is very readable on Stalin, Lenin & how the left in the West were blinded to the realities of what it meant.
I know you said no to religion [and I'm going slightly off at a tangent here], but ‘Sacred Causes’ by Michael Burleigh is very good in examining the relationship between politics and religion from a historical perspective of the 20th Century.
Just for once I thought PMQ produced an interesting news item - the Chinese agreeing to talk to the Dalai Lama on conditions that he’s already agreed to accept. If there isn’t any small print in the offer, that’s genuinely good news.
Birm’ FC raided by plod for corruption!
304 The response was intended to paint Cameron as a man without substance or real idea of how to run the country, more interested in the headline. It was a response to shore up those wavering Labour voters and floaters who may be thinking along similar lines. Whether it works or not is a different matter but for the first time Brown went on the attack rather than throw up the usual script about Cameron soundbites.
Oh my god- I have just had my first post ever on pbCOM moderated. It has gone into some black hole, and all for using the L word I guess.
315. Are you in favour of Tibetan independence, Nick?
302 & 312 - I didn’t get past the first 5 pages of principia mathmatica
I have read Bertrand Russell’s autobiography, bit lengthy and mostly full of his letters rather than narrative, but interesting in places.
Thought Cameron was very disappointing today. With so many iddues to go with, he asks four questions he’s asked in the past? Very poor stuff.
Brown shouting and bellowing as usual. What a hopless case he is.
Clegg asked a decent first question and then lost the plot.
Very poor display all round today.
313 - Christ stopped at Eboli is very good - apologies for posting just to agree.
317. he keeps trying that one though, and it keeps failing. every week he goes on about cameron being all spin and no substance, however seeing as thats exactly what he has shown himself to be it doesnt work.
No substance seems a bit hollow after questions on Tibet.
However, surprised Cameron didn’t compare Bear Stearns with Northern Crock.
Excellent first question from Clegg, which (Maguire was right for once) he should’ve followed through on.
313 Some really good books there - A couple took me back to my uni reading list that I’d forgotton all about.
May I suggest “Hunger” by Knut Hamsun or “Ask the Dust” by John Fante - slightly left field but worthwhile nonetheless.
321. I suspect Cameron is being cautious over the economy and waiting to see what happens. That plus he’s still sticking to his tactic of asking questions then berating Brown for not answering or asking a question back.
323 Let’s just agree to disagree
310. Fair point. The Tories are in a strong position, but I don’t think they really know which way to turn. If they cut spending it only reminds people of the ‘old tories’ and if they don’t then the likelihood is higher taxes and debt - two of the central arguments they make against the current government.
Many of the things that make us vulnerable in the current crisis - high levels of debt/over-reliance on financial services - are things the Tories have done little to oppose. In fact they largely encouraged it in office. Those who thought our ’service’ economy was built on sand had been proved wrong. Well have they now?
Time to learns a few lessons from our European cousins, but will the Tories fancy it?
306. Not going abroad this year then I presume ?
Cameron’s concern for Tibet seemed very staged, especially when combined with his congratulations for Brown and then closely followed by his ridiculing of Brown.
330. how do you mean staged?
320 I’d guess to read the whole of the Principia Mathematica (the 3 volumes must have about a total of at least 2000 pages of densely argued abstract algebra in its own unorthodox algebraic notation) would take at least an entire year of someone’s life.
The last 2 volumes are out of print, so it’s not even easy to acquire.
Nick Palmer claimed to have done a PhD in Nearly Mormal Spaces, if memory serves, so he may be able to add his opinion.
331. Staged, as in appear serious for the first set of questions, and then get on to the Punch and Judy for the second.
I mean, does anyone seriously believe Cameron wants to congratulate Brown on anything? It’s the token statesmanlike pose that he wheels out every now and then.
333. and your point would be? your acting like this isnt the way politics works everywhere.
315: I think the people who live there should be allowed to answer that, Harry, and the problem is that the Chinese won’t let them answer it. As I understand it, the Dalai Lama favours autonomy, but some groups favour full independence. It’s not up to us to say what people ought to prefer.
To respond to your earlier cynical message, I don’t think you really understand left-of-centre politics - it’s possible to be a Labour MP and not in favour of Chinese repression! I’ve been involved in helping arrange the DL’s visit to Westminster and Nottingham for several months.
330- You don’t seem to have got the hang of what PMQ’s is. Of course it’s all staged, every single question and response, you have to be loopy to think it isn’t.
I am growing increasingly frustrated by Nick Clegg. He seems so angry all the time. I am just watching his response to the National Security Strategy and he has just shouted about the Conservatives calling for an enquiry. It seems to me his point is diminished by its angry delivery - it puts you off. He then criticised the PM for placing Europe third behind our relationship with the USA and NATO.
Essentially Nick Clegg’s leadership thus far can be described as:
Angry and Massively orientated around the European Union.
what are peoples views on PMQ;S svp as I missed it, was it a score draw ???
334. My point is that if you’re going to pretend to be something then you should at least be believable when doing it. Turning it on and off within minutes is not effective. Cameron’s best performances have been when he has concentrated on one area or one stance. He was all over the place today.
329 - I dunno, I may just go to the States.
PMQs. On a day like today, Cameron needs to decide where his soundbite would appear best or even if he needs to make the main news. Gurkhas, Post Offices Tibet and National Security Council will be the main political stories.
On Tibet, Gordon agreed to meet the Dalai Lama, something he’d been stalling on, so Cameron sensibly congratulated him and sat down.
Gurkhas is govt bashing story that he doesn’t need to be part of, especially as it costs money, so leave it to Cleggy and watch Gordon look bad.
National Security Council. If he doesn’t say much, other than to wonder why the Tory idea of a Homeland Security Secretary in the Cabinet still hasn’t been taken up, then it will be nothing more than an OOV (’out of vision’ - voice over pictures) and an “Err, what’s that all about, then?” moment for most News at Ten viewers.
Post Offices. He has a set-piece debate in the House this afternoon where he can put his clear soundbites out without fear of interruption in the cauldron of PMQs. If they’re good, he might get 10 seconds on the Six. However, the best part of the Post Offices debate is the opportunity for Conservative candidates across the country to hit their local press and radio stations with Labour hypocrisy. “Your Labour MP says he supports your local post office, but he votes to close it.” Our MP in Tooting is even pictured outside the post office with the owner - how’s he going to vote this afternoon? Come on, Sadiq, can you face both ways on this like you normally do?
Blooming heck - Margaret Beckett is speaking. I have not seen her for ages!
337.
Essentially Nick Clegg’s leadership thus far can be described as:
Calamity, blunder and error ?
332: My thesis was a long time ago, but doubt if I’d have uncerstood Russell even then. Frankly the PhD was a narrow squeak - not a happy experience at all.
33: I think Cameron was about to demand in his second question that GB see the DL. When GB preempted it, DC wasn’t flexible enough to ask about something else - although he’s often compared to Blair and he’s very good at prepared lines, he doesn’t have Blair’s ability to swerve instantly if the exchange takes an unexpected turn.
344. yeah, like we’re going to take your analysis seriously.
261. “On Rationalism” by Michael Oakeshott is an essay which tends to be very challenging to those who follow atheistic/rationalist viewpoints. I’d have to add my backing for “On Liberty” by JS Mill, which should be required reading for anyone going into politics. “Thus Spoke Zarathustra” is a great romanticist work. The Gospel of the Buddha is also superb if you try to distill the original philosophy of the man from the religion it has developed into.
Plus anything by Isaiah Berlin, as he’s probably the most nuanced and insightful political thinker of all time.
341. thought he wouldnt ask about post offices as he has the debate this afternoon to put his point over in a longer speech.
345. Why shouldn’t we take it seriously? Because you don’t agree with it, or because he is a Labour MP?
Nick always makes interesting contributions. He just doesn’t share your opinions.
345 - I think you’ll find it’s taken a lot more seriously than yours.
348.349. because he’s a labour MP and member of the government, if william hague said cameron did well i wouldnt take it seriously.
344,345 - I will take it seriously but will add that I am sure there are archives when Blair did get it not quite right. I also think that it wasn’t relevant to Blair then and it isn’t that relevant to Cameron now.
101.Mike, come and spend an hour in my village post office, they have increased their services considerable. Most pensioners here find it a vital resource. The part time bank closed about three years ago, but a couple of banks have connected with the Post office, which allows me to use it for simple withdrawing cash.
346. Isaiah Berlin’s Two Concepts Of Freedom is fascinating for anyone who considers themselves a liberal. Locke’s Letter Concerning Toleration raises interesting concepts for a multicultural society. I’d reccomend Anthony Crosland’s The Future of Socialism, I’d advise it for anyone on here who thinks socialism, stalinism and marxism are all the same thing.
Seeing as you’ve read the Fountainhead, Sartre’s Nausea or Camus’s The Outsider put forward similar ideas but from a more Leftwing perspective. While combining Philosophy and stylised narritive in the same way.
It’s also why I prefer they dont have MP’s doing reviews of PMQ’s, they all just say how well their man has done.
PMQS: Pity that Clegg didn’t keep with the Gurkhas, if he had done so for his second question he could have made a hit. As it was he swerved onto Iraq, which was probably a mistake.
Cameron clever with his approach - asking questions from previous weeks mean Gordon is unlikely to be briefed as well. He got into his punch and judy stride very well in his second set of questions. A bit of a blooper re Tibet, though - as someone has said above he obviously expected a bit of a poorer answer from Brown so he could push for more action. He got himself in a tangle by making a congratulatory statement and sitting down before asking a question. But, hey, he’s 10-16 points ahead, as long as he stays out of any real trouble in PMQs it doesn’t really matter what he raises.
Brown - well. He IS getting better but he still doesn’t understand the PMQs game at all. He’ll say things like “Why didn’t he [Cameron] lead on x? This is because the Tories don’t care about x,” and likens the whole thing to a debate when the system clearly tells him he’s supposed to be answering the questions and the Tory leader only has 6 questions to ask. It is impossible for Cameron to cycle through all the issues. If Cameron had led on global economic uncertainty you can bet Brown would have asked why he didn’t go on schools and hospitals “which really matter to the people of Britain.”
Brown attempts to make PMQs a discussion when the format clearly doesn’t allow for that. To that end he’s even poorer than Major. At least Major tried to land a few innovative blows (for all they failed). Brown just repeats his ‘nasty Tories’ attack ad nauseum, and does his whole probity, costed plans, difficult decisions, long term stability rubbish that someone MUST have told him doesn’t work by now.
RE 261. Thanks to all PBer’s for your contributions, i knew you wouldn’t disappoint.
[261] The Captive Mind by Czeslaw Milosz made a great impact on me - and is one reason why I still work in central and eastern Europe (And learned Polish to read his poetry…)
You can be an MP without being anywhere near as partisan as some supporters.
355, nice to see Cameron address being questioned. Brown must’ve asked him about 20 questions since the last time he was reminded he’s meant to answer them.
355 - “Brown just repeats his ‘nasty Tories’ attack ad nauseum”
Isn’t this the problem of Ken’s Mayor campaign and Labour attacks on the Tories in general - the Tories are nasty attack just doesn’t work at all now?
358. not if you want to do well, and you notice nick didnt comment on Brown’s performance, just Cameron’s perceived stumble.
360. the tories arent SEEN to be nasty anymore, and havent got any hang em and flog em front benchers or well known figures (although heffer and his cronies makes me wonder sometimes). Therefore the nasty attacks dont work, especially on boris, everyone at my work either think he’s daft or find him entertaining, but not evil.
Some people never criticise their own side. Nick does.
New thread - Can Labour go on resisting individual registration?
363 - Nick is as partisan as they come.
346. and others I only finished university a couple of summers ago and have found a lot of time for reading in the past couple of years. I very much enjoyed Adam Curtis’s The Trap when it was on last year and Berlin’s two concepts of freedom featured very heavily in one of the episodes. Thanks to an attention span far shorter than I would like (Thanks very much The National Curriculum) I doubt I will be able to plod through all of the books mentioned but I certainly have a reading list for the summer it looks like!
Listened to it in the car. Cameron asking the same queastions didn’t really go anywhere. Why nothing on the the economy/banking crisis?
Brown full of bluster and rambling answers — though I felt he left wriggle room for himself in answer to Cameron’s question on a free vote on the embryology bill.
Clegg asks a good first question and, inexplicably, veers off onto Iraq when it was a clear a good follow up could have made Gordon look uncomfortable. He will have to up his game.
Overall, a bit of a yawn. No killer punches.
367. probably waiting to see if the economy is in a genuine downturn before making any major attacks.
Chris Huhne just accused the PM of misleading the house, and the Speaker told him to withdraw the statement.
Huhne did so, and then tried to continue with a point, but the Speaker cut him off and said that he wasn’t allowed to qualify his remarks - it must be an unequivocal withdrawal.
Huhne recovered, but reformed his remarks as ‘Someone was on the Today programme and made a remark about Liberty (pressure group), which the PM just repeated here. They were corrected on that programme’
The Speaker accused him of making a hash of his remarks, said he wasn’t responsible for Liberty, and called for 10 minute rule.
I have never thought the Speaker was overtly biassed, but he overstepped the mark here - he should have allowed Huhne to make the point once he had withdrawn his (unfortunate) initial remark.
365. Indeed. He just (usually) hides it with a more emollient tone, preferring the snide aside to the outright rant.
As a twist on the books thread, how about suggesting good books you think your political opponents will enjoy as much as you did?
So I’d say I think Tories would find Koestler’s Darkness at noon horrifying and fascinating. Aquariums of Pyongyang is another disturbing read of the consequences of totalitarianism.
On another front entirely, I find it hard to believe that More’s Utopia wouldn’t be enjoyed by people of all political beliefs, just because of the evident humanity and humour of More.
Finally, how about something lighter- if Tories haven’t read much P J O’Rourke they’re really missing out. I particularly liked Holidays in hell and parliament of wh*res, but my favourite is the bachelor Home companion.
371. Yes Darkness at noon, i’ve read that, would add it to the recommendations made in 313.
Can I also thank those people who have listed philosophy books to read. I too have been looking for some ideas in this area and it is much appreciated.
369 Morus, if you have not found the Speaker to be overtly biassed before, then you haven’t been paying attention.