Could the Murdoch empire start backing Barack?
April 3rd, 2008-
What are the implications of Elisabeth Murdoch’s Obama fund-raiser?
A big story which could have a significant impact on the battle for the White House is that Rupert Murdoch’s daughter, Elisabeth is to host a fund-raising event in London for the African-American senator from Illinois.
Ms Murdoch, who is 39 and holds dual citizenship, has attracted close scrutiny as her father’s possible successor and much is being read into the current move - which involves the event which is likely to involve a range of well known personalities. Those attending the VIP reception will have to pay $2,300 a ticket.
Her husband, Matthew Freud, was quoted as saying “I don’t think you can interpret the event as anything other than she is enthusiastic about Obama’s campaign.”
The Murdoch empire covers a large number of media outlets in the US including Fox News and the New York Post which has already endorsed Obama. Fox, however, has been particularly critical and played a big part in stoking up the Pastorgate controversy.
If Obama gets the nomination then any Murdoch backing against John McCain could play a big part.
All this is coming at a critical time as Obama and Hillary continue to slug it out for the nomination.
Latest US election betting is here. Notwithstanding the Murdoch news one new market that might be worth a punt on is the 3/1 that’s available on the battle going all the way to the convention in August.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Interesting.
With Obama currently behind in the polls versus McCain, he is not in a position of strength. The Americans are unlikely to hand the Presidency to the same party as the House and Senate (it does not occur often in the US). Americans tend to distrust power too concentrated in the hands of one party.
Murdoch is taking out a hedge in case Obama is nominated and polls better. Its only natural. However ‘its time for a change’ may not resonate so strongly in the US where the House and Senate are already controlled by the Democrats (I wish the party still had real democrats in it! Jefferson must be turning in his grave!) Today the Democrats are more like a haven for closet Communists. Bit like New Labour.
Interesting.
With Obama currently behind in the polls versus McCain, he is not in a position of strength. The Americans are unlikely to hand the Presidency to the same party as the House and Senate (it does not occur often in the US). Americans tend to distrust power too concentrated in the hands of one party.
Murdoch is taking out a hedge in case Obama is nominated and polls better. Its only natural. However ‘its time for a change’ may not resonate so strongly in the US where the House and Senate are already controlled by the Democrats (I wish the party still had real democrats in it! Jefferson must be turning in his grave!) Today the Democrats are more like a haven for closet Communists. Bit like New Labour.
1. The Democrats are a haven for closet Communists? What’s the most radical thing in any of the Democrat’s policy platforms? Incremental fill-in-the-gaps healthcare reform?
The extremists in the US are undoubtedly the Republican party, where you need to pass an increasingly lengthy litmas test to be considered a true conservative. This position has largely been caused by Fox News and its talk radio equivalents. Given the vile with which it treats Democrats, I can’t see Murdoch allowing his empire to fall to anyone who likes Obama. Remember it was Fox News behind the “Madrassa” claims earlier in the campaign.
Socratic Method
Ask a succession of questions that show we are ignorant on the topic of discussion. That the currently recieved view, whether held by experts or lay persons, is wrong or flawed. Then gain agreement to self-evident or probable propositions, before proving that a conclusion, unknown or ignored, is the right one.
A method central to real consensus leadership. A method largely lost for over 2,000 years. You’d need to be pretty bright to master this technique.
I don’t see Murdoch’s support for or against Obama making any difference to be honest - I don’t see any of the big hitters on Fox News (O’Reilly, Hannity etc) being swayed by nuanced advice from the top. I don’t think Fox is quite as easily swayed as the Sun for instance, it relies too much on big personalities rather than just its brand name.
Guide to the pronunciation of “Taoiseach”
“T” = T as in tea
“ao” is not a normal vowel to be pronounced, but is merely inserted between the T and the i to prevent the T from being palatalised by the i.
(If it were “Ti-” then the T would be like a “ty” sound as in “tune”, and “Ti-” would be almost like “chee” as in “cheese”.)
“s” = sh as in sheep
(The fact that the s is surrounded by i and e means that it is palatalised, and therefore sh as in sheep, not s as in seat.)
“ea” = as “ah” but lower, almost like “or”
“ch” as in Bach, loch, achtung etc.
Therefore “Taoiseach” = “tea-shokh” but often anglicised as “tea-shock”.
Murdoch might support Obama? I’m worried. Blair was supported by Murdoch, and look how he turned out. As far as many people are concerned (me not included), Murdoch is the Antichrist.
On the other hand, I know nothing about Elisabeth Murdoch’s political beliefs. Anyone?
Here in Byron Shire (Byron Bay), alternative capital of Australia, Woolworths (the Australian equivalent of Tesco in the UK) have taken over a locally-owned grocery in the very laid-back small town of Mullumbimby and are planning to build a much larger one, on the edge of the main shopping area of that town. Many locals are up in arms, seeing the chances of survival of their local stores disappearing. Anyway, the local weekly The Byron Shire Echo has a spoof front page about all of this, which is worth reading. Australia’s only national newspaper, the Australian, is a Murdoch paper.
http://echo.net.au/pg.php?pg=01&issues_id=22_42&view=gif
For anyone not wanting to click on it, try reading this:
” ‘Naturally we are sad that the association between the newspaper and the Shire for nearly a quarter of a century has come to an end,’ said Mr Lovejoy [current publisher], ‘but of course we had to consider the bottom line before all other considerations. News Limited is a huge and experienced organisation and it may well be that, through predatory pricing and the promotion of correct political ideas, it can reduce the unnecessary number of media outlets and control the confusing variety of opinion obtaining in the area, which has tended to stifle healthy economic development.’ “
Elisabeth will not be suceeding her father as head of New Corp. Her reign at the top of Sky was not a happy one, despite her fierce intelligence. Elisabeth is neither a director of News Corp, nor particularly involved in the business at all. (Both her and elder brother Lachlan were found wanting by Dad.)
No, the next head of New Corp will almost certainly be James, whose tenure at Sky was rather less acrimonious, and who has now gone onto to bigger (and presumably better things) inside New Corp.
6: Stephen, if you and your fellow citizens want Woolworths to fail, then don’t shop there. The shop only exists because there is custom. And the local shops will only go out of business if the residents prefer Woolworth’s.
It is called voting with your feet.
And if it turns out that your fellow residents vote with their feet for Woolworth’s - well, that’s there choice isn’t it?
Scott @ 6 - there really isn’t much in it between Obama and McCain as these figures suggest:
Pollster Dates N/Pop McCain Obama Other Undecided Not Voting
Rasmussen 3/26-29/08 1600 LV 47 44 - - -
Gallup 3/22-27/08 4398 RV 46 44 1 10 -
NBC/WSJ 3/24-25/08 700 RV 42 44 4 10 -
Rasmussen 3/22-25/08 1600 LV 51 41 - - -
Pew 3/19-22/08 1248 RV 43 49 - 8 -
Rasmussen is giving higher figures than most for McCain. Interesting one to look at is Pew - a really sound political polling company based in Washington. Consistently do some of the most in depth and well analysed research in America.
Sorry Scott - you were at 4!
If Murdoch (whichever one - they’re all really the same corporate beast) is at least looking at hedging with Obama, that says at least two things about the race: Obama can win and the NC management isn’t overly sold on McCain.
I don’t think either of these propositions should come as a surprise. Obama obviously can win - he should be the Democrat candidate and the head-to-heads with McCain are close enough, and there’s long enough to go, to put a huge amount of uncertainty over that result. And on the second point, the conservative movement’s hesitancy about endorsing McCain means that Obama may well be considered for contention in a way that he wouldn’t be were a different Republican the candidate.
Will this make a difference as to how Fox covers the election? At the moment I suspect not. Murdoch snr is not where he is because he’s ignored what his viewers and readers have wanted to see/hear. I think this exercise might be about him or the Murdoch clan operating at a different level. This may well be putting down a marker with the Obama camp to be on the inside later on - ie especially after Inauguration Day next year.
John: Seems that paying more doesn’t help with politicians:
As of October 2007, the Taoiseach is the highest-paid head of government in the OECD countries.
If you have more than one Taoiseach in the room you may need the plural: Taoisigh ( Tea-Sigh? )
Big change in politics coming in the next few years. I don’t know if it’s been discussed on here but James Murdoch is apparently very interested in environmental issues (goes a long way to providing a cynical explanation for Cameron’s big campaigning issues).
ICM’s details are interesting, if unsurprising. 38% of those surveyed say they’re certain to vote (29% of non-white voters, 41% of white voters). Among them, Johnson has an 8% lead over Livingstone. Johnson leads by 9% in Outer London, Livingstone leads by 7% in Inner London. So turning out supporters is crucial.
and as suspected, johnson’s suppporters are far likelier to turn out?
Vigorous postal vote campaign?
Are there going to be international observers of the Mayoral election?
Which parties will be (mis)using the proxy and postal voting systems.
15 That’s what makes opinion polling so hard for local elections - the low turnout. Overall, though, I’d say the details are encouraging for Johnson - more people live in Outer London than Inner London, and they’re more likely to vote.
But that 38% certain to vote = 8% lead, isn’t that the key figure? If this were a Mori poll, they’d be showing an 8% Boris lead in line with YouGov.
18 and furthermore, low turnout traditionally favours the Conservatives.
Odd how one poll shows boris 13% ahead, the next 10% and the next 2%. There hasn’t been a major event over the last few days to show shows Boris has lost 8%, so it seems strange to me. Harman didn’t figure on the news at all.
20
Evidence?
Somethings never change: Back in the 20’s a very grand Tory MP was chastised during a public meeting, when it became obvious he knew nothing about public transport.
He decided to remedy the situation by travelling on the tube, he went up to the window to buy his ticket, and asked for first class!
There are other variations to this story, asking the brake man to, ‘Point me in the direction of the dining car’ etc.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/people,808,boris-tries-to-get-on-track-for-mayorship,22897
Boris of course uses his bike.
1- If the Democrats are dominated by closet commies the Tory party here is a haven for psychotic Nazi’s who fantasise about the holaucast in Chelsea dungeons. What a silly thing to say Goldstone.
I really do not think that the US electorate are sophisticated enough to manipulate the balance of power in the house, senate and presidency. It is just that there are plenty of inbuilt checks and balances in the system that separate power.
That said, I think it is highly likely that the democrats will be holding all three keys by the year end.
22. you do know Boris doesn’t run his website don’t you? Although he probably writes stuff for it etc he won’t do every content updare or every map.
14/19: Are the detailed tables up yet? My recollection - but others here will correct me if I’m wrong - is that ICM weights by certainty to vote, so 10 out of 10 means your opinion is counted fully, 5 out of 10 means only half. If so, then Johnson’s 1% lead already takes into account higher Tory certainty to vote.
I’m not sure the papers and media have got much say left in the Democrat race, if Obama is indeed leading Hillary in Pennsylvania. It will be all over if Obama can register one more big victory.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
I have 3 free £25 betfair bets to those opening new accounts - you have to match £25 to get the bonus bet. Leave your email address. First come first served.
Yes I looked for the ICM breakdown and couldn’t find it yet. In the last national poll they counted 7, 8, 9 10 (out of 10) likelihood to vote and ignored the 6 and below. I think that if you said 7 your vote counted just as much as if you said 10.
Unfortunately different people take these “How likely,on a scale of 0 to 10 are you in favour of/going to do x polls…” Some people would never answer 10 - they may be run over by a bus between now and the election etc.
I think differntial turnout will be Key. I live in a similar type of city where third place council candidates in the rural parts/suburbs regularly get more votes than the winners in Inner city areas. But that doesn’t matter when you are electing the same number of Councillors. However it will matter in a Mayoral election when every vote will count towards the final tally.
I don’t know if anyones in previous threads picked up on the Jonathan Freeland article in yesterdays Guardian on the five ways Livingstone can win. Getting the white council estates and ethnics in inner London is one.
24
Perhaps this Boris story might be more to your taste?
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/people,826,is-gaffe-prone-boris-being-muzzled-to-keep-lead,23378
From the previous thread but worth a repost - this is devastating for Brown.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/587926/where-are-britains-unexploded-subprime-bombs.thtml
Look at the pdf of constituencies at risk from the credit crunch. You can’t spin your way out of reposessions - nor rely on these people for votes.
Cons most seats at 1.6-1.7 is looking like a great bet.
1
I’ve just noticed that! Goldstone? Hmmm no relation I can assure you!
Don’t you just love Max, ‘It was an orgy, but not a Nazi one’
Hmmm he payed £2.500 to get someone to kick the s**t out of him: I’d have done it for nothing!
“the Tory party here is a haven for psychotic Nazi’s who fantasise about the holaucast in Chelsea dungeons. ”
That’s hardly news, is it?
ICM’s detailed tables aren’t up, but Julian Glover has given some of the details.
29 There are hardly any white working class voters left in Inner London. There are quite a few in parts of Outer London, but Norris did pretty well among that group in 2004, and I imagine Johnson will do even better.
32 It worked out at £100 per hour per prostitute, which is far better value for money than Elliot Spitzer got.
34
Tax Free!
30. just looks like another ramble to me, are people actually paid to write on that website?
36
Check the homepage, some top named journos are featured, always worth a look.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/?sectionID=1
37. obviously they werent involved in those two articles you’ve put up then.
36- cuddles- finally I understand. You are coldstone’s right wing alter ego.
coldstone- I hope you are on medication because by creating another identity “cuddles” strikes me as pretty bizarre behaviour.
39. Good point - their names begin with “c” and they both refuse to use capitalisation. Guilty m’lud
better?
23. “That said, I think it is highly likely that the democrats will be holding all three keys by the year end.”
There is zero possibility of this happening (well almost zero - if Bush and Cheney get assassinated in quick succession we could have President Pelosi I suppose). Although the election takes place in November the new president won’t be inaugurated until January 20 2009. Normally I wouldn’t bother with this sort of nitpick, but given as you were criticising American voters for *their* lack of sophistication and understanding:-)…
Max Mosley’s most recent piece of political involvement was to donat to Labour. There is no evidence that they sent the cheque back, although they did send his buddy Ecclestone’s cheque back.
OT
It looks like the main prop of Brown’s increasingly exposed “economic miracle” is about to be pulled away leaving it looking more like a giant pyramid selling scam:
UK Housing market ‘faces painful future’
03/04/2008
The UK housing market is facing a “painful and severe” fall in value as a lack of bank financing, record low affordability and the prospect of unemployment combine to hit the market.
A report by rating agency Standard & Poor’s is warning of pricing corrections across Europe, but particularly in markets such as the UK and Spain…cont
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/03/cnhousing103.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
25: Nick - ICM used to do it that way (Populus still do) but they switched after the last election to just taking those who rate their chances at 7+/10
40
God! my secret is out, damn you Holmes!
Anyway just for my alter ego, Jeffrey Archer’s thoughts are in the Mail:-
On the forthcoming London mayoral elections he is equally loquacious.
“Until recently I thought Ken Livingstone would hold on. But Boris will be helped by the mire Labour is in.
“It’s been amazing how careful he has been for four months. Of course, he is still capable of delivering a silly comment.
“Very clever and energetic people - like myself - are easily bored.
“They can focus on things only for a short time. But with running London, the amount of dull documents you have to read is horrifying.
“Boris is not capable of taking on that amount of detail.”
Hmmm
“Very clever and energetic people - like myself - are easily bored.
Prison certainly hasn’t taught him anything, certainly not humility: bang ‘im up for life!
45. Two people I know have had their mortgages turned down at the last minute because of hats going on. Both been told they need a deposit.
48. He’s so clever he thought he could lie in court and get away with it - plonker.
Anthony will you be analysing this poll’s internals soon?
BTw, any word on the Ipsos-MORI national poll?
51. Not unless someone has them!
I didn’t know you needed a hat to get a mortgage!
Sounds as if the MCP (Paul Tucker) is making noises about needing continuing high interest rates to squeeze inflation out of the economy. As both wholesale and retail interest rates have been raised by the market - perhaps by 1% surely the BoE should be reducing its rate substantially.
The MPC is going to kill the British economy, and the politicians will get the blame.
54 the MPC that is constrained by rules set by Brown.
“Both been told they need a deposit.” - wow, what an extraordinary concept.
The real shocker is that it used to be possible to borrow hundreds of thousands of pounds, with scant evidence of income, and no deposit.
54, well Brown chose to let them become independent. He can hardly criticise them for exercising their independence now.
53 sean fear posted that he did, upthread
56. Exactly. There’s a painful return to reality underway.
56. They don’t mind having to get a deposit, it’s just that beforehand the bank ws falling over itself to offer them mortgages, desperate to lend them money. Suddenly they’ve changed their minds after both of them had decided the houses they wanted etc, and spent months sorting it, and are being very difficult in sorting even an appointment to talk about it. One has given up, the other is sitll trying.
60, sounds rough, but it would be even worse for a mortgage rate to suddenly rise several points. There was a guy with a Northern Rock mortgage whose rate rose by 3%, and he’s paying an extra £1,000 per month. Even for a wealthy person that’s a massive amount.
It’d be great if the subprime issues turned out to be overblown, but sadly I don’t think they are.
58 I think Sean Fear was using figures from the second Guardian article on the poll which had more detail but still not the full picture.
61. Thats what I keep telling them, better they got stiffed before they bought the houses than after I be stuck in debt and negative equity.
for I put and
Credit Card debt up by 200% in 1 month.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=553189&in_page_id=1770&ct=5
It may suggest, people who debt surf - are unable to find new loans and are resorting to credit cards as a last resort.
Either way, credit card loans are an act of desparation.
Ladbrokes have this morning reduced the odds on their Obama +12% handicapped bet for him to win Pennsylvania from 0.66/1 to 0.44/1.
Could someone (EDW
)please post me the latest SPIN spreads for the London Mayoral markets please?
Thanks!
65 Net lending to individuals has risen from 8.3 billion last month to 9.8 billion this month on figures released yesterday. Mortgage approvals were down slightly at 73k compared to 74 lsat month.
Meanwhile down in Torbay, PB’s very own Marcus’s Lib Dem opponent Adrian Sanders MP has been banned by the local Conservative Club !! …. Confused …. Remember all politics is local !!
http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=135239&command=displayContent&sourceNode=135077&contentPK=20295209&folderPk=79060&pNodeId=134831
62 That’s right. Julian Glover has the information. I don’t.
If the ICM Mayoral poll is based on a likely turn out of 38% plus perhaps a further % 5-9 on the scale of likelihood to vote is not that rather more representative of the London electorate than Yougov’s figures that are based on a 80% plus turnout in their sample .
54 it pains me to agree with Icarus but the weakness of the UK monetary policy framework is its sole focus on inflation. This makes it more in tune with its European counterpart but leads to the wrong problem being addressed at times like these.
we have a much bigger problem than the inflation one - in fact a bit of old fahioned reflation might be needed. The MPC are worrying about an inflation problem that the market is already dealing with. By keeping real interest rates way too low for way too long they helped create the problem (under the instructions of the Dear Leader). Now they are likely to go in the opposite direction and keep rates too high for too long.
72 Agree completely but what can they do given their mandate? The fictional inflation measure has meant rates have been artificially low for years stoking the asset bubbles that now need to unwind. This was componded by the move to CPI and the chickens are now coming home to roost.
Obama has added another super delegate. Former Montana Senator, John Melcher joins the steady flow in the Illinois front runners direction :
http://www.kxmb.com/News/224840.asp
[72] KB, I bought a cash mini-ISA yesterday. Interest rates can never be high enough to suit me…
75. Yes the credit crunch has been pure upside for me too. No mortgage, plenty of savings and a tidy sum made shorting bank shares on Roger’s recommendations (!).
That’s a very strange story from Torbay, Jack (69). No fewer than three Tory members come up individually to the Liberal Democrat MP and say what a disgrace the Tory Mayor is. The Lib Dem MP reports that on his blog - naturally enough, because it surely very significant that even Tories are looking towards the Lib Dems to save their town.
And then the extraordinary local newspaper manages somehow to bring in the British Legion and to accuse the MP of abusing a non-political event. Quite barmy of it.
It seems to me, Jack, that Our Friend Marcus does have a very real problem in Torbay, which goes in parts.
1. The Tory elected Mayor is a disaster area and greatly disliked.
2. Marcus was responsible for setting up this Tory Mayor in Torbay.
3. It’s a bit late for Marcus to distance himself now, isn’t it?
So that’s another Lib Dem seat on Cameron’s wish list that is fast slipping out of reach for the Tories.
77. The wishful thinking of our dear Lib Dem friends becomes ever more entertaining.
Goldstone 4.An interesting little quote from a junior encyclopaedia(not quite spelt correctly!)- apart from the last sentence which you added. Socratic method is very simple really- it is the content you need to master. Good luck with your studies!
[77] I think it’s a rule that if a Tory takes on a Lib Dem incumbent and has a high profile in the blogosphere, they come a cropper. There was a fellow in Norfolk last time…
Pump the flesh, guys, smile at the babies and keep your flies buttoned…
65. Perhaps they are borrowing their mortgage deposits on their credit cards?
77. I am under no illusions.
Unfortunately, the Conservatives win so many councils and local authorities that the quantity of cr*p ones is much higher.
But more importantly, I have a theory that this is linked to the number of retired, bumbling, stumbling, doddery old fools that there are in a Conservative group. Many are absolutely useless. And there tend to be more in “blue-rinse” areas in the Shires and coastal retirement spots.
Funnily enough, Conservative City Councils are much better. I put this down to the number of dynamic, younger people involved in them.
Conservative London Councils are second to none.
The Murdoch empire will back a winner. Like when they tried to buy Man United - they’re glory supporters.
I think Murdoch’s political stance is over-rated. If you look at British general elections, he basically backs the Party he thinks is going to win.
77. I’ve heard both Basingstoke and Winchester are managing to b*gger it up too.
Basingstoke isn’t an issue, but Winchester is an important seat.
As for Eastleigh, forget it. It will stay Lib-dem till the apocalypse.
67
Boris, 18.5-19.5
Newtron Bomb 14.5-15.5
O/T - More contenders are rushing to endorse Brian Cowen for Taoiseach today with a coronation looking increasingly likely. Dempsey has made the most positive noises about standing and Ahern has said he has made his mind up and will make a statement today. Not clear that either will run after they weigh up the options of running and losing and not running at all.
OT: more pressure on Mosley: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/7328018.stm
85. Interesting EDW. Interesting..
How does this compare with the current betfair back/lay prices for both BJ and Leavingsoon?
EDW - I owe you a pint
*Casino buys EDW a tap-drawn cyber-pint of Spitfire*
Torbay will be Marcus’s seat next time. No doubt at all. The national swing against the Libs and rise in Tory share surely dicates it.
85. EDW - Respecting your advice greatly (as I do
Would you buy BJ at 19.5??
It ought to be, but the Lib Dems could hold on if the UKIP vote holds up, and the quite large Labour vote switches over to them.
[89] A wish is not a claim upon reality… and, as we know, the Lib Dems are devilishly hard to shift once they finally do get elected…
82- casino- I think you live under the illusion that councillors of any political hue make a difference.
Councils are run by council officers. There is one important thing that councillors do influnce though- recruiting the senior officers. Get that right, and the council runs well.
92. You wouldn’t want to spoil an election night cliche would you ?
Dimbleby ” So our projections show LDs to lose 35 seats ”
Teather ” Yes but we’ve held Torquay which is really the sort of seat David Cameron has to win to form a government - its a bad night for the Tories”
re 65 not necessarily. I still get offered lots of 0% interest credit card deals with a 2.5-3% arrangement fee for 12-15 months. I just transfer part of my mortgage onto them if they’re foolish enough to offer me a £10k loan at 3% for a year.
93. The quality of local government is one of the most depressing things about this country. Still, if the public can’t be bothered to pay attention to what’s going on, then they get what they deserve.
90
Nope, not for now.
I suggested selling Boris at 66.4 yesterday on Intrade, he is now at
58.9 63.5.
You can’t compare a 0-10-25 index bet with fixed odds or Intrade because they are not like for like. Betfair and Intrade are all or nothing bets.
Does that makes sense?
96
But part of the problem is a a lot of Local governemnet is carrying out Central Diktat. And how much influence do they have on policing? Or roads? Both are centrally ordained..
Last time a Local government went its own way in Liverpool - and should have gone bust and taught the nutters who voted for it a lesson - it was saved by Mrs Thatcher. (effectively altho’ she did not intend it.)
The threat of bankruptcy concentrates minds wonderfully… there is none in local government.
Ipsos MORI poll: Julia Clark has just emailed me to confirm that the poll should be published today.
93. Tyson.
You are correct in the vast majority of cases.
However, some councillors can - and do - make a huge difference. Particularly where they succeed in changing the culture of the council.
Hammersmith and Wandsworth are stunningly bold. Steven Greenhalgh and Christopher Chope (in the past) were exemplary leaders.
Though, needless to say, you wouldn’t agree with either their methods or their policies!
Other Conservative councils can achieve instant (minor) budgetary improvements by instructing the contracting out of council services. Something to which many Labour councillors are ideologically opposed.
Suprised this has not been mentioned (by our resident LD friends)- Conhome vs the Europhiles - claims that the MEP selction process was rigged.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2008/04/the-story-of-ho.html
Trouble at mill..
99, thanks for the update:)
97. EDW – correct, but I just wanted to know what they were! I can still work out basic implied probabilities of victories on both SPIN and Betfair and compare the two to what they were 24 hours ago
99. Double Carpet - do you at what time publication is due?
96-Frank- if people only knew the half of it. Everyone spends most of their time talking complete gibberish in local government, Tories, Labour, LD and officers alike. Wonder that anything gets done at all.
Actually though I have always preferred working with Tories believe it or not.
As I posted last night when faced with real people with real problems they (tories) tend to forget all that tory rubbish ideology they’ve been wittering on about for years and be as humane, liberal, tolerant, pro state as the best of the soc*alists. Widdecombe was a classic example. A truly wonderful constituency MP.
Torbay council seemed to be upsetting the locals according to Radio 4 yesterday lunch time.
75 yes - the credit ‘crunch’ is nothing of the sort for me as I’m a saver not a spender. I’ve been buying LLOY and HSBA and getting a nice divi with every expectation of future capital growth.
however, from a macroeconomic point of view, without liquidity our current system is kaput and for a long time that liquidity has been generated by people ‘living on their expectations’. In the old days Maiden Aunts could rein in the profligate.
Apparent macroeconomic stability since the 80s has depended on ever increasing amounts of debt.
Re; Bertie Ahern’s replacement in ireland.
Contenders to Brian Cowen seem to be dropping like flies and the no contest at 5/4 pointed out by Neil yesterday and hopefully taken up a by a few people looks even more interesting.
Focus now is on the intentions of Dermot Ahern and Mary Hanafin. Ahern may well come out today and say he isnt running. Hanfin is harder to guage but most pundits expect her to lose heavily if she bothered to run in a head to head against Brian Cowen.
Otherwise its going to have to be someone from out of the sun.
Gonna stick my weedy neck out and say Boris +6% in the MORI poll today and then SPIN will move their BJ price up 0.5.
Boris will move from 1.52 on BF to 1.48.
I’m gonna regret this post.
Boris annouces new policy : alcohol to be banned on the tube.
86. I should have read the rest of the thread before posting eh….
The Torbay MP is a funny bloke. He complains on his blog about what the local paper reported - which was taken from his blog! If he wanted it kept private hy did he blog it?
Look at this fool:
“I didn’t ask [my local paper] to report it and I stressed to the reporter that I was not attacking the elected Mayor but merely passing on what people said to me. That’s my job after all as a public representative. It’s the paper that blows the matter up into a story of conflict and then gets opposing politicians to comment and make it a political story.”
Not attacking the elected Mayor?
Here’s what he posted, which, amusingly, is still up on his blog right below the “not me Guv” entry:
“When a third comes up to you and says this Mayor of ours is a disgrace, you realise it has little to do with you and everything to do with local politics and the most hated administration of the local council in Torbay’s history. One that has Conservative Party members in a Conservative Club voicing to a Liberal Democrat MP their criticism of a Conservative elected Mayor and a Conservative controlled council.
I never thought I would feel so at home in a Conservative Club.”
Marcus should have no trouble with this Muppet
re 109. I don’t think that MORI have done a mayoral poll for pubic consumption - they do Labour’s private polling.
What is due out is the MORI monitor for March with national figures. My guess is a Tory lead about the same size as that which ComRes had - 6/7%
This may have been posted before but Boris launching his campaign:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=bCMwExwShPk
a great speech I thought
105. Well, that’s a surprise! I know what you mean. For everything I disagree with about Tory ideology, they do seem to have a ‘get things done’ mentality. And if I can’t subscribe to their patriotism, at least it stops many of them becoming as self-interested as a lot of the Labour Party.
[94]
DIM: Ms. Harman, you lost six of your ministerial colleagues this evening surely it is a catastrophy and the end of new Labour?
Harridan: The Tories are still not trusted even in their former heartlands, like the South West..blah blah blah blah (ad nauseum)
DIM: Zzzzzzzz
113. “I don’t think that MORI have done a mayoral poll for pubic consumption”
No, I’d be shocked if they had!!!!
Casino at 104 - unfortunately not.
77 Tressage and others. Torbay. In fairness to Marcus …. yes, I did say that !!
…. I recall he did flag up the possibility that winning the local council and the Mayoralty might have a potential down side if they failed to perform with potentail to damage his chances at the general election. Time will tell.
However I do recall in 2001 widespread Tory glee at the prospect of recapturing the seat from the miniscule Lib Dem majority. Oh dear. I’d say it’s an evens shot presently. All to play for.
You won’t attract quality councillors while (a) they have so little to do with actually running the council. What officers get away with still amazes me. (b) councils have so little power generally. (c) its so badly paid (d) the british public gets off its fat lazy arse and votes on local issues in local elections.
What depresses me about all parties is the tendency to campaign on national issues and just use the locals as protest votes.
I’m warming to directly elected mayors simply because the London election is talking about London.
Hillary told Govenor Richardson ‘Obama can’t win’
Later Richardson endorses Obama !!
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/04/candidate-clint.html
120
And the rules governing behaviour for local councillors would - if applied to MPs- means about 50% of MPs going to jail for theft…
SPIN move again
19-20
14-15
IG
19.5-20.5
14-15
120. I’d agree with all of that.
Walter Shapiro, who has been shadowing the Obama campaign, on the ‘Obama Difference’ :
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/04/03/obama/
More on, On ‘Noshow Bojo’ or was it Bojo Noshow?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/brassneck/april08/wheresboris.htm
The key to Marcus winning Torbay, (I was brought up there) is the Labour vote, if it stays with Labour he’s in, if it switches tactically, he’ll struggle.
WRT local councillors, when I was on Hertsmere, I found that we had some discretion over about 4% of our budget. I left because I really didn’t want to be a poorly paid civil servant, implementing policies that I often disagreed with.
The Local Government Standards Board, which has the power to remove elected representatives if it doesn’t like their behaviour, is another disincentive.
126 Johnson has in fact attended 10 hustings since the middle of January.
Hillary drifting south on the Iowa Exchanges :
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
Headcases is on next Sunday at 10pm on ITV1, for those interested. Just seena clip or two on the Daily Politics - looks good.
Anyone see Balls and Burnham swinging about on ropes at the end of the daily politics. Think we’ll be seeing that clip again
Benedict Brogan on Labour is revolting
Over at the coffee House we have Labouring on
123. B**ger. Missed it.
McCain prepares to shape himself as an ‘agent of change’ :
134 Ooppps …. link :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/04/mccains_american_story.php
131. For those that missed what was the summary of the argument ?
123. What are SPIN quoting for the US markets?
Alan Abramowitz on how the ‘Super delegate math’ will continue to work against Hillary :
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/superdelegate_math
Statement coming up from Ahern for anyone who backed him at 18/1 last week. I think he’s more likely to endorse Cowen than anything else but fingers crossed anyway.
SPIN Pres. mkt.
JM 15.5-16.5
BO 15-16.5
HC 2.5-3.5
Don’t know why the spread size is diff. for the top 2.
136. They were going round and round in circles.
The UK’s Office of Fair Trading is expected to
impose multi-million-pound fines on up to 150 construction companies after a bid-rigging investigation into local council contracts worth 3 billion pounds,
……. mainly focused on thousands of contracts in the
East Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside areas up to the end of 2006.
140. Thanks.
Either it’s a c0ck up or SPIN want a bigger profit margin on BO!!
Zim: Still no sign of Presidential results being released by ZEC, but much talk of a run-off (though no one knows where the money to pay for it is going to come from). Mugabe seen this morning in public in Harare (were rumours that he was overseas). Zanu-PF “politburo” (doesn’t that say it all…) is meeting tomorrow morning. Party is obviously split between hawks- who will fight any removal of Mugabe- and doves who are prepared to compromise and let Tsvangirai become President. Lots of police about and atmosphere is fearful.
121. Thats a carefully constructed entry…..
Kingbongo says: “54 it pains me to agree with Icarus”
blimey a first! Perhaps I should start a blog! Is Benedicts still going? Haven’t heard much about it recently, perhaps I could take it over!!
Gallup on detailed analysis of the age and gender gap in McCain and Obama/Clinton match-ups :
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106042/Age-Vote-More-Strongly-Related-ObamaMcCain-Matchup.aspx
Is the Mori on Boris or GE?
I’m going to die of suspense on this MORI.
148, it’s a national poll, I think.
142
If the OFT were serious they’d jail the MDs. Like in the US.
Has a salutary effect.
148.Monthly tracker for March I think.
148 Sally C. We are overdue the national Ipsos/MORI poll. Presently the last poll is inflating my ARSE share of the Labour share of the vote.
How to win friends. This Mosley chap doesnt seem to know when to stop digging…
“Mosley today questioned why BMW and Mercedes-Benz chose to comment on the matter before consulting him. “Given the history of BMW and Mercedes-Benz, particularly before and during the second world war, I fully understand why they would wish to strongly distance themselves from what they rightly describe as the disgraceful content of these publications,” he said.” The Guardian
I’m going to have a profound sense of anti climax when this bloody poll arives now unless its spectacular. I want the tories on 45% or down to 30%. nothing else will do. And sain Berry winning the mayoralty.
Nothing less less will do after this delay.
154. He should have listened to Basil Fawlty
I’ve only just become aware of some comments made recently by Harriet Harman, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, where she claimed that Fidel Castro was a hero of the left. She added with caution, it’s time for Cuba to move on now.
Why exactly is this. Because of the mess Cuba is in? Because the country relied for so long on subsidies from the wonderful Soviet Union? Please don’t give me that tosh about adequate public services. What is the matter with most of the Labour Party? They adore Castro whilst allowing Britain to be the tax equivalent of the Caymen Islands, waste billions on PFI and support the invasion of Iraq.
Predictions for IPSOS/MORI anyone??
Con-38% Lab-31% Libdem-19% ..for me.
Clegg launches LD campaign
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7328224.stm
I wonder if he’s targeting the “under 30s”
Why do you think that the IPSOS/MORI poll is taking so long to come out. I think because it shows tory/lab neck and neck.
160 MORI has been out of line with the others over the past couple of months, so these findings might be pretty odd.
160. if it does I think it’ll pretty much be seen as rubbish then.
138 Jack W - great article by Adam Abramowitz
Taking the noble professor’s numbers, with which I broadly agree, the expected total pledged delegate count after all primaries are concluded will be Obama (1703) and Clinton (1550). Including their current SuperDelegates, Obama (200) Clinton (246), that gives grand totals of 1796 (Clinton) v 1903 (Obama).
The race comes down to the remaining 351 Superdelegates, whom Clinton needs to break 229 - 122, 65% - 35% in her favour to win. Unlikely.
However, consider a vote at the Convention to seat Michigan (73 Clinton v 55 Uncommitted) and Florida.(Clinton 105 v Obama 67 v Edwards 13). Delegates connot vote on a challenge concerning themselves, so MI and FL could not vote to seat their own state, but could vote to seat each other. Clinton needs the Michigan challenge to be voted on first.
Taking the 1493 (C) v 1614 (O) plus FL delegation, the vote to seat Michigan could go in Clinton’s favour, as her deficit of 107 would be half-overcome by Clinton and Edwards delegates from FL where they have a 51 delegate lead over Obama. It would only require uncommitted the 351 Super Delegates to split 150 - 201 in favour of seating Michigan for the bill to pass. I think uncommitted delegates might well favour seating MI or FL by this margin, for reasons I will explain.
On the Florida challenge, Michigan can vote, and Clinton needs the uncommitted SDs to vote 218-132 in favour of seating Florida. Again, plausible.
If these two votes went in her favour, the two delegations are seated, and the delegate totals (excluding 351 SDs) would be 2025 Obama and 1974 Clinton, but with 2,208 now needed to win, because of the extra delegates from MI and FL.
Now, of the uncommitted delegates (351plus 54 SDs from MI and FL plus 13 Edwards delegates) , Obama needs 183 and Clinton needs 234, or a 56%-44% split in Clinton’s favour, which is more plausible.
I suppose this idea rests on the fact that the only reasons for Democrats voting to exclude FL and MI at the convention (forget obeying party rules, no-one really cares) is because they are concerned that it could costs Obama the nomination. If the nomination was secure for Obama, fewer than 5% of the party would favour excluding two massive swing states, and alienating the local State Democratic parties. If SDs are still uncommitted at this stage, it means (I think) that they care more for the party’s chances than Obama’s candidacy, and might well support seating the delegations, even if they then vote for Obama as the candidate. However, by seating MI and FL, it could give Clinton mid-Convention momentum that could overturn everything we have seen thus far.
None of this is likely, but she is certain not to win on pledged delegates, and I think she is unlikely to win the Pv, though it will be very close. All she has left is to get those delegations seated in a brutal convention fist-fight, just like in the good ole days. Difficult, but if ever there was a candidate who could do this, it is she.
Obama’s campaign has been masterful at fundraising, netroots, media-handling, strategic policy, GOTV, the whole works, and has made the Clinton machine look shabby. However, Obama’s campaign is not full of the sort of warhorses that, although behind the times in terms of techniques for the campaign trail, can pull off dirty Convention victories. Only McGovern’s campaign in 1972 ever managed to beat the Party hierarchy on the Convention floor, and they did it at cost of the White House, with Daly and Meany essentially exiled. Denver is going to be a fantastic Covnention to watch.
159. Bland bland bland bland bland.
Is the guy ever going to say anything interesting. Mike was right, if you are Lib Dem leader, you have to be interesting and attract media headlines. Clegg just seems a complete establishment figure.
164 Frank. You can’t be talking about the same ‘Cleggover’ surely?
Congratulations to Nick Palmer on his interview on Radio 4’s “You and Yours”.
Nick appears to be proposing legislation to set a minimum size to small print.
This is to protect consumers against scams.
I sympathize because a rogue organisation misled me with promises just before 1 May 1997.
166. That’s a good idea although would it work in reality?
161. How odd Sean?
Go on, what would you predict?
Small print should clearly be made 10 feet high.
Then it would require a crane to deliver the junk mail.
163 Morus. I think some of the analysis is a tad off beam.
The Clinton wins look excessive, bar Kentucky and Obama will cream Clinton in NC and Oregon. The super delegates continue to rack up for Obama as Clinton stalls.
166.
160. I was wondering about that. Didn’t they delay the january one because it was so out of kilter by showing a 1% labour lead. I wonder if something similar has happened.
Either that our they took the mugabe contract and they are over worked at the monet ! ( thats a Joke m’leaned friends )
Morus@163: Are you sure that delegates who haven’t been seated get to vote on the credentials of other states’ delegates? I’d assumed that until you were seated you didn’t get to vote on anything. (I don’t have any evidence for this - it just seemed like the common sense position.)
170 I think Kentucky and West Virginia should be 20 point wins for her, and Pennsylvania 15 points. I think she’ll do ok in Oregon (58-42) and North Carolina won’t be more than 65%-35%. Indiana is not going to be far off 50-50 it seems.
The thing is, even if Obama is 5 points better off in each of these, is that more than 15 delegates better than the Professor suggests?
He is doing well to drip-feed SD support to provide momentum, but in a way he is experiencing the very problem I suggested after Super Tuesday - you can only be the frontrunner for so long without finishing your opponent off, before people get worried.
If all those uncomitted SDs are going to just support the PV winner or pledged delegate winner, why not go for Obama now? He’s practically won both. How prepared is he for a convention floor battle?
173 - Not entirely sure. In the past, DNC rules stated that you voted in everything, until your credentials were challenged. I’m not sure the DNC sanctions on FL and MI actually count as a default setting - rather the delegates turn up and the default is that they can vote until their credentials are challenged. Challenges to a delegate or delegations credentials are handled by a vote on the floor, and those not being challenged are entitled to vote.
This will be up to the Rules Committee I think, so half the battle may be before the Convention even starts, but I think it will be a motion to strip delegates supported by ‘the Party’, and it is pretty rare that that is voted down. This time, though, there is something at stake.
165. Yes, but but Cleggover comments were an embarassment. It’s not ALWAYS good to be interesting.
But look at the phrases he’s using. It’s the same bland stock phrases every politician has been using for years. I think Clegg must have spent quite a bit of time watching Blair, Brown, Cameron and others as part of his political education. The result is that the guy has no identity.
lol this is amusing
173: “In the past, DNC rules stated that you voted in everything, until your credentials were challenged.”
Wouldn’t that mean you and me could turn up and vote on credentials as well?
Not trying to take the piss or anything - It’s a very interesting claim, if true, and I don’t think I’ve seen it anywhere else. Would go some way to explaining why Hillary’s odds have been standing up as well as they have as well. I’d be very interested to hear if you or anyone else knows anything more about this either way.
174 Morus. I think Pennsylvania will be much closer. However the future pledged delegate maths is largely tinkering at the margins at this stage, which is why Hillary keeps moving the goalposts.
Part of the reason why this race continues is the ‘Clinton Mystique’. Many pundits and some punters just cannot believe that a Clinton can be beaten. There are few things in politics such as a ‘racing certainty’ but as the endgame meanders on Hillary is only certain to race into the buffers !!
178 - We could try! No, the delegates submitted to the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) by the Secretary of the State Democratic party are credentialled so that they can attend on the floor, and cannot be restricted from voting, except on a motion challenging them, unless they have already been unseated as it were.
I am by no means sure about this - I’m working partly off precedent, where half of McGovern’s California delegates were being challenged (which would have taken him from majority to only a plurality). However, they all got to vote on the first challenge which was on the men of the SC delegation (not enough women in total delegation from SC). The women of SC could vote on the SC challenge, along with all California delegates, as no CA delegates had at that stage been challenged.
The same year, both Mayor Daley and Al Sharpton’s Illinois delegations were present and voting, until their challenge (which Sharpton won) which came very late in the day.
This is the only precedent I can find. Not sure if official sanction from RBC means they are unable to vote by default, or if that (as all other challenges) needs ratification from the Convention Floor. I suspect it does, which would give the opportunity to vote on each other’s challenges. However, you could see Howard Dean stitch this up in RBC 56 days before Denver, and not allow them to vote early, or to have a general ‘DNC sanctions must be honoured’ motion, that would include (and therefore preclude) MI and FL on the same ballot.
150.152.153.
Thank you.
Have been looking back over and comparing Mori. Sean F is right. They do seem abit out of line.
Over Jan/Feb the results have been Tory…
ICM. +7 +2 +5 +3
YouGov +8 +9 +6 +7
Populus +4 +9
Moir +10 -1 +2
Jimmy Carter indicates that he’s supporting Obama :
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Carter_hints_at_Obama_backing.html
160.. conversely it might be 20% or more…..
Its does seem that Obama is dribbling his store of super delegates out one by one as a way of getting momentum.
180: Thanks Morus, interesting stuff.
Looking at the rules for the convention:
http://tinyurl.com/39wg3s
…they originally say that the state loses half its pledged delegates and all its superdelegates, which would make me think changing _that_ would require a ruling by the Rules Committee, which passes its findings on to the Credentials Committee, which is then appealed to the floor, which is then voted on by…
In which case maybe _half_ of the Michigan delegates get to vote on whether to seat Florida…
On second thoughts I think we should stay well away from the convention for fear of getting trapped in an infinite loop…
There’s an interesting article in this week’s New Scientist about the polling in America:
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/mg19726493.800-why-pollsters-are-flummoxed-over-clinton-and-obama.html
Basically, as we are aware, in states with a low proportion of black voters the pollsters have overestimated him (e.g. New Hampshire, California) whereas with large black populations he’s been underestimated (South Carolina, Georgia, even Virginia).
However I’d be wary of trying and apply the lessons to Pennsylvania since that is a closed primary (though I reckon it will end up being, effectively, semi-open).
Mori haven’t put the Tories above 42 since dinosaurs roamed the earth. They have had 42 only twice.
Labour’s lowest is 32 [and then only twice]. Taking those two out of it, their lowest is 35.
Anything 40 or above will be good news for the Tories particularly as DC has been less visible nationally.
Based on the above anything below 35 is bad for Labour.
Do any of you horsey betters have any grand national tips then?
Ta.
182 - Wow, that will win Obama supporters in the general election given that Carter was such a resounding success when he was president.
Who’s going to be Obama’s running mate? No-one obvious springs to mind. And when is McCain going to get one?
188. Heard a sniff for “idle talk” - but small and e/w. 66/1.
Found the master document!
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/72b0d4b4a0768275fe_0wm6b3kl2.pdf
Section II, sub-section A has
“Only delegates and alternates selected under a delegate selection procedure approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee and in accordance with the rules shall be placed on the Temporary Roll of the 2008 Democratic National Convention.”
However, look at Section VIII, sub-section B, paragraphs 1 and 2.
“1. The Secretary of the Democratic National Committee shall determine a Temporary Roll of delegates to the Convention which shall consist only of those persons selected and certified as delegates in accordance with the Rules and pursuant to this Call, unless a credentials contest shall have arisen with respect to any such person(s), in which case the Secretary shall include on the Temporary Roll the name of the credentials contestant recommended for inclusion by the Credentials Committee in its report.
2. Persons whose names are included on the Temporary Roll of delegates shall be permitted to vote on all matters before the Convention until after the adoption of the report of the
Credentials Committee; provided that no person shall be permitted to vote on his or her credentials contest.”
So, if FL and MI can get the Credentials Committee to accept that there will be a challenge, and that the Convention should vote on whether they should be included, then it happens as I suggested. If the Credentials Committee goes along with the DNC ruling at its meeting, then Florida and Michigan could not vote until this sanction was formally overturned.
184 I agree - I think there may be a set timeline being worked, to build to a crescendo just before PA. That is why the North Carolina delegation (all seven of them) have been put back in the box, to be revealed later in the play. But if you count them, Hillary’s Super-D lead is now barely twenty.
As most of Hillary’s enthusiastic Super-D’s climbed on board her bandwagon at the first chance, she is perceived as having nothing left in the tank to draw on. If she wanted to surprise people, then unveiling a dozen Super-D’s in a lump might just check Obama’s advance. But don’t wait up….
Just one more question for Morus or anyone else who knows before my brain explodes:
Morus’s comments raise the (faint) possibility that the nomination could be decided by the votes of Michigan’s “uncommitted” delegates.
Non-sarcastically, What kind of person stands for election on behalf of “uncommitted”?
191 - Noted - thank you.
It gets more interesting
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/lowdown_on_credentials_committ.php
“There are a total of 186 members on the credentials committee. Twenty five of them are appointed by DNC chair Howard Dean, and the remainder are alloted by state, in numbers based on each state’s population and Democratic performance.”
Even when states allocate by performance in primaries proportionately to pledged delegate count, this favours Clinton, because FL and MI still have their delegations in full size on the Credentials Committee.
Of the 25 members appointed by Howard Dean, there are three chairs:
“The three chairs for the 2008 Credentials Committee are Alexis Herman, James Roosevelt Jr., and Eliseo Roques-Arroyo. None of the three donated to any of the presidential campaigns, though Alexis Herman did donate to Clinton’s Senate campaign. All three are also unaffiliated super delegates. More interesting however, is that Alexis Herman was Labor Secretary under President Clinton and Roosevelt was an Associate Commissioner in the Clinton-era Social Security Administration. Of the 25 party leaders and elected officials, three were Clinton super delegates at the time of this writing.”
http://maryland-politics.blogspot.com/2008/02/intrigue-at-democratic-national.html
Countering reports that he’d raised around $30M, Obama raises more than $40M in March :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9368.html
194 - Because they didn’t have much money at the time (September?), Obama and Edwards obeyed the DNC, and did not put their names on the ballot in Michigan, only Hillary and Dennis Kucinich I think.
Hillary won about 55%, and “uncommitted” won 40%, meaning 40% of voters went out in the snow to vote for ‘not Hillary’, or knowing that if it was close they had elected delegates who although ‘pledged’ (ie not SDs) were free to vote as they wished on the first vote. Technically, all pledged delegates can do this, but by voting ‘uncommitted’, they meant that the Clinton campaign would not get to handpick those delegates.
While we’re waiting for Mori, a recap of their February poll:
Con 39
Lab 37
LD 16
Satisfaction ratings:
Govt -34
Brown -24
Cameron 0
Clegg -3
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-is-burying-bad-news-of-poverty-study-until-after-elections-803990.html
lol - some great quotes in there. Squirmtastic.
189 - Lefty Dems still like him!
190 - Obama should (but might not) go for Kathleen Sibellius or Bill Richardson. Does anyone know if there is a reason McCain isn’t announcing a VP choice? Is it to give the Convention something to do, or to make them feel important, or can’t he decide who to pick?
194 “What kind of person stands for election on behalf of the uncommitted”
You need to get hold of Hunter Thompson’s “Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail”. There is a truly brilliant (and very funny) passage in it which explains exactly the role of the Uncommitted Delegates.
You get elected as an uncommitted delegate to be bribed. Politics has nothing to do with it.
202 - And the dangers of doing so, IIRC!
Clinton’s SD lead shrinks to just 30…
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
USA Today indicates that North Carolina may be the end game for Hillary :
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-04-02-Endgame_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
203 Indeed. Well remembered, Morus.
I think carter has been a dignified former president (Contrast Bill) and has done Good work via the carter centre. Even if its just the beltway interested in his endorsement it will generate positive press coverage for obama
202.
I agree (shock horror!)
If only Elliott Spitzer had heeded Thompson’s warning he might actually still be a delegate.
Eco towns have been all over the news today. This is an issue which is largely ignored by those it doesn’t affect and builds up huge resentment from those it does.
In this area, its the first time Labour voters have been out helping the Tory PC to deliver leaflets. I think some Labour stategists realise this is a stinker* and whilst it encourages the perception that the Gov are eco frindly, I am not sure it actually garners any votes. It certainly loses some not least because Caroline Flint plays into the perception that the Govt are bulling local people.
*15,000 houses on a greenfield site next to a traditional Labour community in a marginal constituency with about 20 on the District Council’s social housing list.
198: Right, I followed that bit. What I was wondering was who ends up filling the “uncommitted” slots - whether they’d be reliably pro-Obama/Edwards or what.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9298.html
Has the wrong number of Committee members in the first couple of paragraphs, but otherwise pretty good article.
Posted on a blog that I linked to in post 96, someone has written that a vote on the committee goes one of three ways:
“(1) If a majority of the committee supports the proposal without significant dissent, the delegations are seated according to the proposal’s directives.
(2) If a majority of the committee supports the proposal but 20 percent or more dissent, they get to issue a minority report — and the proposal goes to the full convention for a vote.
(3) If the proposal doesn’t get majority support, the delegations aren’t seated.”
So (1) adds them to the Temporary Roll, so they can vote on each others’ challenges. (2) means the Convention votes on whether to add them to the Temporary Roll, so they can vote on each other’s challenges, and only (3) keeps them off the Temporary Roll altogether.
Hillary is guarenteed 20%, given 10% of the Committee is *from* MI and FL. I think there is a good chance that this goes to the floor.
210 - Not reliably anything. You’d expect most of them to be Obama supporters, given Edwards dropped out a week later, before delegates were named, but there could be secret Clintonistas, anyone-who-bribes-me delegates, or Edwards fans who dislike Obama. I’ve been generous in my posts, and given them all to Obama, but if half are not his, that’s net effect of 60 to Clinton.
190,201. Here’s a good recap of previous GOP VP pickings. On this basis, we shouldn’t expect a decision anytime soon. Great news for those of us who want a long, drawn out summer of speculation!
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89309365
207. Dignified yes, but useless.
Latest with ladbrokes
Mitt Romney 4/1
Charlie Crist 6/1
Tim Pawlenty 6/1
Chris Cox 7/1
Lindsay Graham 7/1
Rob Portman 10/1
Mark Sanford 12/1
Sarah Palin 12/1
Tom Ridge 12/1
Condoleezza Rice 14/1
Joe Lieberman 14/1
John Kasich 16/1
Mike Huckabee 16/1
Haley Barbour 20/1
Kay Bailey Hutchinson 20/1
Bobby Jindal 25/1
Sonny Perdue 25/1
Tom Coburn 25/1
David Petraeus 33/1
John Thune 33/1
Phil Gramm 33/1
Rudy Giuliani 33/1
Fred Thompson 40/1
Steve Forbes 40/1
Colin Powell 50/1
J.C. Watts 50/1
Jim Demint 50/1
Michael Bloomberg 50/1
Michael Steele 50/1
Mike Pence 50/1
Richard Burr 50/1
Chuck Hagel 66/1
Jeb Bush 66/1
Sam Brownback 66/1
Ron Paul 100/1
200 So failure on child poverty to be Cameron’s first PMQ next time out?
re 166 he’s already proposed it as a 10 minute rule bill - so it’ll not get anywhere, alas.
“Tit, tat, and all the jazz!”
Livingstone withdraws from voluntary sector hustings
Morus- I nominate you for the Andrea Parma memorial trophy: you are just smokin today…
216. Morelikely to be the 20 Labour MPs who have signed the EDM calling for the 10p tax band to be re-introduced
Or the Licencing minister slagging off Darling’s budget alcohol rises 
216. Isn’t the problem with trying to predict what will come up first that any leader of the opposition worth his salt is going to try and be unpredictable and catch the PM off guard.
201. I’m pretty certain McCain is unsure whether the main threat to him comes from his base not turning out, or in failing to win over Independents. I think he’s waiting to see how the media plays once the Democrat is selected and the dynamic is framed.
Thanks for your excellent research on the convention Morus, but I can assure you that unless Clinton wins the popular vote, 70% of superdelegates are going to fall for Obama. I think we have it too set in our mind that Clinton is the “establishment” candidate, due to the way the campaigns have been run. If anything, the real establishment figures (other than Bill!) have hinted that they want Obama. Even if the superdelegates split down the middle, Obama is going to have such a lead among elected delegates he’ll get through, even including Michigan and Florida. Plus, it looks like the superdelegates are going to decide in some way before the convention, meaning no FL/MI momentum boost for Hillary.
215. The only reason McCain would ever choose Romney for VP is because he’s desperate for money. And if he’s that desperate, it’s a very bad sign for the GOP come the election.
219 - Thanks Cicero! I’m not sure I’m worthy of being mentioned in the same post as our esteemed Italian Doctor - he remains an inspiration to us all!
215 - Crist and Pawlenty at 6/1 looks pretty good value. Huckabee at 16/1 seems very generous indeed.
Petraus would be a bold determination to make this about National Security and Iraq - he’s clever and bold, and would exacerbate Obama’s perceived lightness on military and foreign affairs, probably forcing him to go with Richardson. I just can’t see Romney being chosen, or accepting. He’ll wait until 2012.
220 Those six questions next time are looking like Gordon facing Russian Roolette without an empty chamber!
222 - I’m inclined to agree Socrates, but I think after PA it will become clear that she can’t win on PV or pledged delegates, so if the 351 SDs dilly-dally, this is the only strategy she has left.
Obama needs them to make their minds up soon. If they are still on the fence at the Convention, I’d start worrying - why would they wait that long, only to give him the nomination they could secure for him now?
200: That’s just SO cynical from Labour. And they’re releasing them the day after the elections as well, so they won’t just not play a part in local election campaigns, but when it is released it’ll be buried under results coverage. An end to the cynicism of the Blair/Campbell era, how refreshing.
215: Ron Paul 100/1? Rabidly anti-war, anti-big government Ron Paul? 100/1 to be on the ticket with liberal-republican McCain? Genius oddsmaking there.
226, a bit like Bean’s mighty appearance all on his own to sign away our vetos to the EU this will simplify amplify the negative press.
224, and after Harman’s pretty good performance Brown will seem even more tawdry.
I do hope Cameron goes for the jugular. The post-conference PMQs were excellent to watch because he didn’t hold back and slapped Brown about.
227, simply*. Treacherous fingers.
225. I agree. If superdelegates are still undecided by the convention than we can suspect they are closet Clinton sympathisers. But I don’t think we can say that about some still waiting now. Some will just be waiting until every state has decided, and some are waiting to see who will win. Many of these superdelegates won’t have a preference due to the similarity of the policies, and just want to win favour with whoever is more likely to be the next President.
We should also remember that these superdelegates are getting called by major figures in the campaigns each week. If you’re a lowly party official, or even a house representative, getting that much contact and recognition from the big beasts isn’t something you want to end.
229 - In politics, when in doubt, it is usually the craven explanation that is most plausible!
I re-read with interest your point about her being thought-of as the ‘establishment’ candidate, and I agree that is no longer a fair description. Having said that, how do the campaigns match up for the Convention-Masters, people who know how to manipulate a floor at high-speed? I think the popular perception leads people (including myself) to assume that she has lots of this sort of lizard-person, whereas Obama’s all like flowers and puppy dogs - would you say this is fair?! I don’t really know the back-room players that well…
We all know the child poverty stats are coming out, and we all know when they’re coming out. They’re not going to be buried unless journalists decide not to cover them. If journalists are too lazy to find stories unless they’re dangled under their noses, it’s a bit rich to blame the government for it.
231. Problem is they are usually out in March - now for some reason they are put back to 2nd May. Govt says this is for “additional validation and quality assurance”.
Make of that what you will.
226 Betting surrounding Ron Paul has been one of the most interesting stories of the campaign so far. There has been an enormous amount of interest in him from the start and he got down to 14/1 to be elected President at one stage. Even when the primaries got going and he was clearly only attracting very limited support, he was still being well backed to the extent that he’s ladbrokes worst possible outcome by a long way.
I think it was mostly down to his appeal to the gamblers of North America who would stand to gain more than most with a libertarian President. We have taken a few quid at 100/1 on him to be McCain’s vp pick.
Yeah, and we all know about it. It’s not burying if it’s not covered up - because that’s what burying means.
231 Gabble - that you? Hiding behind “anon”? Things must be getting bad in the Bunker…
232 - It is a PR nightmare to say you’ll publish on 2nd May.
Fair enough *if* they really are delayed because they are late, and purdah decrees you cannot announce in the two weeks before May 1st or something, but why not avoid the perception of completely arrogant manipulation by saying you’ll publish later in the summer. Bad politics, bad PR.
235 - Yeah, because it’s a really good idea for someone with a false name which conceals their identity to use a different false name to conceal their identity.
236 - So now it’s bad PR because it’s *not* being buried? OK…
232 Perhaps they are engaging a Zimbabwean consultant?
O/T - Dermot Ahern has said he will not run for leader of Fianna Fáil and is backing, er, Brian Cowen. Cowen seems to have the entire cabinet for him including all the serious contenders. Only Dempsey left to declare his intentions and when he gives in to the inevitable it will be a coronation (meaning Fianna Fáil hasnt had a leadership contest since they replaced Charles Haughey!). Unfortunately you cant get 5/4 on there being no contest any more. There is a market for Tánaiste with Paddy Power but I havent a clue who will get that (it is an appointment rather than elected).
I realise there are those on PB.C who have an allergic reaction to any Patriotic policies. But surely even the most self-hating leftist most agree that (Mayoral Candidate) Councillor Richard Barnbrook Policies are what Londoners want & need.
Policies For You:
- House British people first – it’s only fair
- Stop immigration
- Build a better NHS
- Zero tolerance on crime and yobs
- British jobs for British workers
- Scrap the congestion charge
- Lower Council Taxes
- Better education for all our people
p.s. The Patriots have been chosen to appear first in the ‘Mayoral booklet’ which is being delivered to 5.3 millions homes later this month.
http://www.londonelects.org.uk/pdf/R_Barnbrook.pdf
233.
Shadsy - If you want to bet on someone who is not listed fir VP, who should one go about requesting a price on a candidate?
237 - I never said it was being buried.
It is bad PR to say “we were going to update you on a key government target, but now we will tell you exactly one day after you’ve voted”.
My point was, even if there is a really good reason why you can’t publish before May 1st, to choose May 2nd is so tantalisingly close to election day it seems contrived, even if it isn’t. They could have chosen July 15th, and no-one would have linked it to the election. It makes them look Machiavellian, even if there is a good explanation. That’s all I meant.
223. McCain would have to be mad to pick Huckabee. The “base” McCain has most trouble with isn’t the fundamentalist evangelical Right, whose influence in the party is waning, but just more general partisan, angry Republicans. The sort of people who argue that the US is a Christian nation but couldn’t quote a bible verse. They don’t dislike gays for theological reasons, but because they don’t like them nancy boys. It’s tax issues they care most about, and big spender Huckabee isn’t going to win any over. We saw this in the primaries: Huckabee had a very strong, loyal vote that wouldn’t sway from him one bit, but his support never climbed above that group despite the lack of a solid conservative in the race.
230. In terms of convention-masters who can manipulate contacts there are three big beasts: Bill Clinton, Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi. Al Gore and Jimmy Carter both have a lot of “moral weight” so to speak - Gore on moderates and Carter on liberals - if they made announcements but would have less influence in terms of pressuring individual superdelegates. Clinton would have a lot of contact with those third-way Democrats that came in before and during his Presidency. However, Bill has clearly been central to the campaign from the beginning and his loyalists would have been asked to endorse Hillary before this whole thing began as part of her “inevitability” strategy. Dean is very big among the young liberal wing of the party, and also among economic populists who disliked Clinton’s neoliberal economic stance. Nobody particularly likes Pelosi, but she’s a power broker in the party who can reward and punish, and is looked to as the party leader for those who came in after Bill Clinton finished his term.
In terms of positions of the three people. We obviously know where Bill lies. Howard Dean obviously would be highly sympathetic to Obama. Pelosi would simply go with who is more likely to win in November, and I think Obama is considered strongly favourable within the party on this, except for the “Third Way” group. There’s also the fact that Obama is likely to be a force in the party for decades, win or lose the nomination or the presidency, where the Clintons are heading out if they don’t win both.
240. You missed out apple pie
240 - I find it refreshing that, other than the completely empty truisms “build a better NHS” (v those who want a worse NHS?) and “better education for our people” (v worse education?), I disagreed in substance or extent with every single item on your platform. And I’m not even on the Left! Huzzah! Hope he doesn’t get a single vote.
230. Incidentally, Obama is no doubt a great political manipulator and always has been. The way his campaigns have fully investigated and taken advantage of different contests’ rules shows this. That he’s thought of as being “above politics” is testament to his talent at politics rather than the opposite!
240. Are the BNP still planning to reconquer the Irish Republic?
241. Matthew, just give me a name and I shall add them forthwith.
243 - Cheers for the SD breakdown. I see what you mean about Huckabee, though I was thinking more geographically than ideologically. I think Obama will do better in the South than Kerry and Gore, and I think a Southern Governor who was prominent in the campaign (and can give a speech) is probably better than 16/1 in absence of a clear favourite.
Then there is the argument that candidates never choose who they *should* choose. Obama will probably go with some random Harvard-educated North Dakotan State senator, and McCain with someone really stupid like, I don’t know, Mitt Romney!
Three longshots: Jon Meade Huntsman, Jr. for the GOP and Harold Eugene Ford, Jr and Sanford Dixon Bishop Jr. for the Dems.
Regarding the minister for licencing I believe his pager may have gone off this afternoon
From the beeb :
But in a bid to defuse the situation, Mr Sutcliffe - who did not dispute what he was reported to have said - issued a statement saying that: “My comments do not accurately reflect my views.”
233 - So Ron Paul is essentially the American libertarian punter’s equivilant of the England football fan sticking a tenner on them at the World Cup then. Makes sense.
240 - Wow, what a great platform that is. Populism and stupidity in one easy package. Interesting you don’t mention the party he’s from, ashamed to be supporting the BNP are we?
249. If McCain is having to use a valuable VP spot to defend the South then he’s lost the campaign already. He’s going to have to assume the South goes his way without extra support and make a play for the Midwest, the mid-Atlantic seaboard and the odd place in New England.
252. “233 - So Ron Paul is essentially the American libertarian punter’s equivilant of the England football fan sticking a tenner on them at the World Cup then. Makes sense.”
That’s exactly what it is to an extent you wouldn’t believe.
251 “My comments do not accurately reflect my views.”
:lol:
Like the manifesto commitment to a Euro-constitution referendum didn’t accurately reflect your views either, I gues?
250. Huntsman would be a clear snub to Romney! You don’t think the Mormonism is an issue to a GOP candidate who already has trouble with the base?
I’m assuming your Dem proposals are on the assumption Clinton gets the nomination.
256. Correct.
The BBC is reporting the first Labour Minister to be found swinging from the end of a rope.
Lets hope it’s not the last !
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/7328556.stm
251 that could be applied to every statement from a minister in this governmenton any subject.
253 - A dangerous assumption to make. Obama is sort of candidate who defies assumptions!
250. They should be there now Matthew.
33/1 Huntsman
25/1 Ford
66/1 Bishop
260. He doesn’t have much choice. If he’s doing badly enough to risk the South then he’s lost the Midwest and the game’s up.
Without wanting to harp on, but Politico has confirmation that the DNC Credentials Committee will include Standing Comittee members from FL and MI
(However, yet again, they have their facts a little askew by suggetsing that the Rules and Bylaws Comittee was wrong to allow this in their original ruling, as the DNC charter says that a State’s “Plan” must be fully compliant in the view of the RBC for Standing Committee Members to be included. Actually, the reference to the full compliance of the “Plan” refers only to the affirmative action and gender-equal representation proposals of the States, and not any other sort of non-compliance in the view of the RBC. Their original ruling was suprising, but by no means invalid).
261. What odds will you give on Sam Nunn?
Oh, 16/1 never mind.
264. He’s in the list at 16/1
How about Chuck Hagel being the Democratic VP choice?
262 - Is McCain, like Obama, the only candidate who could win without necessarily sweeping his party’s homeland?
I’m thinking Obama could conceivably win without Pennsylvania, or the Duck Boot Belt, or Michigan, or Wisconsin etc. because he stands a chance in Missouri or Virgina. Does the same not apply to McCain - that he could lose one or two Southern States (Georgia and Arkansas?) but win Pennsylvania?
Sorry, link for post 263
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9350_Page2.html
240. “p.s. The Patriots have been chosen to appear first in the ‘Mayoral booklet’ which is being delivered to 5.3 millions homes later this month.”
it’s in alphabetic order, you muppet
188 Steven Ronald
Yes, but it’s a bit complicated so if I’ve time I’ll do a proper review and email to all the Ten To Follow crowd, and anybody else who expresses an interest.
Or maybe Double Carpet will allow me to put it up as an Extremely Off Thread piece?
213 Here’s a good recap of previous GOP VP pickings. On this basis, we shouldn’t expect a decision anytime soon. Great news for those of us who want a long, drawn out summer of speculation!
Yes, Shadsy, good news indeed, especially for bookmakers as the list of no-hopers gets ever longer!
268. I’m highly sceptical of McCain doing well in Pennsylvania come the General. It’s a very economic populist state, and McCain very much plays the “these jobs are going and aren’t coming back” card, arguing for lowering trade barriers and saying workers are just going to have to retrain. He could obviously change track on this, but then he risks being portrayed as a flip-flopper.
Healthcare is also going to be a big issue in places like PA, and I have no idea how he’s going to tackle this. It’s hard to have a universal healthcare plan that’s any more free market than Obama’s so he there’s no room for a policy that can be painted as middle ground, anything similar to Obama will be seen as socialist by some powerful GOP elements whose funds he needs, and going without one altogether will lose him Reagan Democrats. Maybe I’m wrong on one of these, but it will be very talented of him not to get into trouble over this.
240- “Zero tolerance on crime and yobs”
I dont think sending people to prison for 20 years for stealing a chocolate bar is something that can be realisticly done unless we start up some new prison colonies!
Acually thats a brilliant idea, lets declare war on Australia! Last one to Sydney is a non-white person!
PtP - well as we often do politics without betting I’m sure we could manage one on betting without politics - do you think Mike would object?
So is the strategy for Obama is go for Missouri, Kansas, New Mexico, Colorado and put up a bit of a fight in the South (CA, NY and NJ will fall into line)? What is the strategy for McCain? Play for OH, PA, FL and hope the heartland lines up as well?
I really hope that they don’t both retreat to Kerry/Gore v Bush and throw everything at Ohio and Florida again. With these candidates, I think we deserve better than that.
276. Assuming Obama is the Democrat, Florida should be virtually guaranteed for McCain unless he collapses. It has a huge retiree population and a very strong military attachment. He could have a shot at Michigan, playing on the Democrats offending them by not counting the primary, and also one at New Hampshire, which would have been very much his territory if the GOP didn’t have such a bad rep among irreligious Conservatives these days. Colorado could also be competitive if Obama is painted as an Eastern liberal.
276. Expect Virginia to be a big battleground too.
240. Aren’t the Patriots an American football team? What on earth are they doing in the London election?
Re 270: meritocrat “it’s in alphabetic order, you muppet”
Actually, no it’s not. A draw took place yesterday at City Hall. BNP were first out of the hat. For the record, Boris was third and Red Ken was last.
As for you ‘meritocrat’ - the wheel seems to be spinning but the hamster has left the cage.
240 - I don’t know how you BNP people even have the nerve to use the word “patriot”. After all, your party is completely opposed to everything that’s decent about Britain and to all of the positive things which the British people strive for and believe in.
The BNP goes just about as well with patriotism as marmite does with custard.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential amd Primary Trackers :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 42%
McCain 48% .. Obama 41%
Clinton 43% .. Obama 46%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
280 - are you interested in betting on politics or do you just use this site to get the BNP publicity?
Obama has also put Colarado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa into play.
280 - were you a “Powell-Churchill” at birth, or did you add the tag “Churchill” to sound more patriotic?
(I am very wary of double barreled names!)
Simon 274. No point in making an absurd condition and then saying zero tolerance is impossible. Apparently it has worked in New York- the sensible way is to find out how and why it worked and consider applying it here.This would seem to be better than just saying its an impossible problem to solve, and walking away from it, for PC reasons perhaps.
The icm details are up. can someone try to make sense of it! I tried but their explanation is not well written!
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2008_april_london_mayor_poll.pdf
285 - actually, it’s probably quite appropriate. Churchill was not too fond of those with skins of other colours either.
275. Well I for one would welcome a guest thread on The Grand National from PtP, Double Carpet.
My own current fancy is Butler’s Cabin, but I haven’t researched it properly yet.
I thought Churchill’s mother was an immigrant!!
New Fairliegh Dickinson Uni/Public Mind Poll for New Jersey :
McCain 43% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 42% .. Obama 47%
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/demsplit/index.html
285 - It is a made up name, no hits on google apart from here and another board, not even there as a surname. You can’t get through life without being google-able, I get an annoying number of hits.
On topic - It looks as though both trackers will be back to showing Obama leads.
For the rest of the year I think we should keep in mind that it all comes down to campaigning ability; whatever you think about Clinton you have to admit that her campaign has been nigh on rubbish, throwing away huge leads and spending poorly.
The Democratic hieracrchy want a good campaigner, they will also ensure that, no matter what happens, enough superdelegates will be persuaded to make sure that MI & FL are not able to overturn the result. Anything else would be to reward their breaking of the rules.
MODERATED
287 I think it’s clear enough. It’s interesting to see that Johnson leads by 19% among white voters, Livingstone by 47% among non-white voters, although Johnson gets 20% support among non-white voters, historically quite a high figure for a Conservative.
BTW it should also be noted that the first two posts on this thread are by someone who is idiotically crass enough to use two different names for them.
I shall treat them accordingly if ever they dare to raise one of this pair of their many heads here; this particular creature also clearly enjoys talking to themself in the mad hours of the mid morning.
Avoid (as they say).
293 - surely a spoof!
Emily Powell-Churchill has features on Con Home as a Tory. Either a recent BNP convert or a troll.
280 - were you a “Powell-Churchill” at birth, or did you add the tag “Churchill” to sound more patriotic?
Er…Churchill’s family were originally the Spencers, and Winston’s great-great grandfather, George Spencer added the tag Churchill to his name to sound, … more patriotic….
293 - You really are rubbish at this aren’t you:?
293. There’s always been immigration of some sort. I admit that there is more now than there used to be, but you can’t deny that it brings serious economic benefits, although I accept that the demand on public services becomes greater.
Why is it you are so worried about immigration? For economic reasons or because you are racist?
298. Interesting.
ICM details.Under “Weighting by past votes” it refers to 30% Faulty Recall. Does this mean ICM assume 3 in 10 voters cannot remember who they voted for or even whether they voted at all? I find this impossible to believe - have I misunderstood the ICM explanation? Perhaps Mike or Anthony can comment.
Clinton super delegate, Govenor Jon Corzine of New Jersey indicates that if Obama wins the popular vote then he may switch to the Illinois senator !! …. leaving.. sinking ship .. rats..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=701136300&play=1
292. do you spend any time in the real world, or is it all virtual?
most people have no relevant hits on google.
299. you can’t deny that it brings serious economic benefits - I thought the cross-party house of Lords commitee had other things to say on this?
Why is it you are so worried about immigration? economic reasons and denegration of the pre - 1945.
Re: 280 - SBS “are you interested in betting on politics or do you just use this site to get the BNP publicity?”
I thought PB.C ‘punters’ were interested in betting on the London Elections?
Yesterday, I revealed that BNP were telling it’s supporters to give Boris their second vote. This story had the potential to move the market. It appeared here first.
Today I’ve informed the site that the BNP have been drawn to appear first in the mayoral booklet which is going to 5.3. million homes. Maybe important, maybe not.
I’ve also constantly said that the BNP WILL WIN 2 assembly seats. When odds appear get on.
To be ‘fair’, these are the other Mayoral candidates.
http://www.londonelects.org.uk/candidates/mayoral_candidates.aspx
303 - The google hits are *from* my various activities in the real world. In a sort of Dave Gorman-esque quest I’ve identified about ten other people with my name, I’m not going to travel the world to shake their hand though.
Svejk - it means that when ICM compare the answers they get when they ask people how they voted in 2005 to what the actual results were in 2005 they assume that 30% of the difference is down to false recall, and 70% is down to phone samples being skewed towards Labour. Therefore they weight their samples to figures made up 70% of the actual 2005 result and 30% to the average recalled past vote in their last 20 polls.
305. The BNP will fire 1000 shots from our national liberation arsenal into the air following the London breakthrough.
The Great Inflation Con-Trick
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/31/magazines/fortune/spiers_cpi.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008040305
I say the time has come to put the central bankers’ heads on the block. The are so utterly currupt and incompetent, it makes a mockery of our system of government. How can we hand control of financial policy to a set of unelected bankers with a vested interet in wrecking the economy, through a short-sighted deception over inflation, and fast-and-loose monetary policy?
Bailing out mismanaged Bear Stearns is a scandal - it’s not even a commercial bank, it has no customers amongst the general public. It has no consumer depositers. Bailing it out is blatant curruption. Stealing taxpayers money to cover-up mismanaged investment banks is a scandal.
Aboe, leading economists agree inflation is out-of-control. The only one’s disagreeing, are those on the payroll of the investment banks, whose fast-and-loose lending practices are wrecking our economy, through causing the biggest asset-price bubble in the world.
Boris gaff? Not much in it imo. Story out of nothing
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/2008/04/when-will-he-le.html
289. RETRACTION! Having now started researching The Grand National I am retracting my support for Butler’s Cabin.
304. The House of Lords report said that immigration had little net benefit either positive or negative when you consider the boost to the workforce/cost of services etc. Since that clearly contradicts your own views on immigration, I’m surprised you would want to quote it.
Frank Booth. Serious economic benefits? Not according to a group given the task of assessing benefit, on the grounds presumably that they knew what they were talking about. The government rejected their report, but they would, wouldn’t they?On what basis are you able to say categorically, that “you can’t deny immigration brings serious economic benefits”? From the standard of the people involved,they at least are unlikely to have based their judgment on a political agenda.
On a lighter note Sky news blog is running the tape of Balls/Burnham swing on a rope like monkeys [shame its Liverpool and not Hartlepool]. They are asking for captions. The quality thus far is very poor.
308 Martin Goebbels-Gobshite. So the BNP have stocked up on party poppers. Whoopeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Not immigration again. I’m the son of immigrants to Scotland around the 14th century. I think the family was involved in cattle rustling, rape and murder.
Please don’t start on me again..:-)
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 46% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 46% .. Obama 49%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106108/Gallup-Daily-Democratic-Race-Steady-Obama-49-Clinton-46.aspx
When’s this Mori poll going to turn up then?
308 How spiffing
Meanwhile, news of some interesting climate science, regarding whether the Sun is responsible for recent global warming.
320 It’s responsible for alot but I don’t think you can blame Murdoch for that.
Mori…I think Casino’s 31 for Labour is too low [I hope he is right]. They haven’t gone below 32 with Mori and even then rarely.
BBC London main story is new revelations about Ken Livingstone’s private life and character. I presume it’s got something to do with the forthcoming biography.
Can I suggest Emily changes her name to Margaret?
323 Don. Caught in bed with a newt ??
324 - I prefer “Emily”, it makes me think of the transvestite in Little Britain.
MORI’s out
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
Con 40% Lab 35% LD 18%
MORI: Fieldwork carried out between the 13th and 18th March !!!
From the link at #327:
Ipsos MORI’s monthly poll has appeared after what appears to be a lengthy delay - the fieldwork was carried out way back between the 13th and 18th March, so actually about the same time as the first ICM and YouGov polls that showed big Conservative leads back in the middle of the month. I have no idea of quite why there was such a delay.
The topline figures, with changes from MORI’s February poll, are CON 40%(+1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 18%(+2). It’s obviously not in the same league as the double point leads YouGov and ICM produced at the time, but the trend was in the same direction.
310 I don’t recognise the author of the Sky piece but its so thin it might be an ex-Mirror hack.
163 Morus
Interesting post.
Then how about the money? Obama raised $40 million+ in March. Clinton’s campaign will not release their numbers until they have to, that’s round about April 20th. I wonder why. And then there’ H Rodham Clinton’s Tax returns which are due out momentarily. Plenty for the media to paw over there. Then there are the polls - still moving Obama’s way in Pennsylvania. Then there are the SDs still moving Obama’s way. Then there is Pelosi, Reid and Dean who all said that the process will be completed after the final primary.
Then there is the Clinton campaign a long drawn out version of Giuliani’s; in that so many mistakes were made so frequently by so many idiots. I choose only to example Carville’s ‘Judas’ remark of Richardson.
If you believe that the Denver Convention will be any more than a coronation for Barack Obama then you enjoy an amazing ability to surprise we mere mortals.
Malcolm
310,330 - It was in the London Paper yesterday. All i can say is that the word “Gaffe” has been seriously devalued if this qualifies!
New thread - Mori poll.
Thanks
Double Carpet
I thought that questioning climate “change”/”global warming” was what made people most upset and excited. How wrong I was, it’s the suggestion that someone says they’ll vote BNP.
Out come the shrieks demanding they be banned, accused of being Goebbels, etc. The last ironic since the most Goebbelesque figure in British politics as regards media manipulation was Campbell and his master.
As always it’s the tolerants’ intolerance of intolerance that shines through!
334 - Eh? Who said they should be banned?
207 Yellow Submarine
My wife and I met President Carter and his wife Rosalynn in late 2006. What a delightful friendly couple. Looking at the work done by previous Presidents, after their term of office, in my lifetime, Jimmy Carter has been by far the USA’s best Ambassador.
His work for democracy, the poor, Habitat for Humanity and his decision to offer the world an alternative experience of the US from little boy George’s pathetic mumblings have impacted on the rather poor view many Americans had of his Presidency.
Even my hardline Republican friends grudgingly admit that he’s the best ex-president America has had in their [incredibly long] lifetimes.
Malcolm
249 Morus
Kent Conrad, esteemed Senator from my state North Dakota, would be a dazzling choice for Barack Obama. ND may be a small state - about two-thirds the size of England, but Conrad is a big hitter and in terms of economics, fiscal policy and agriculture, the guy really does walk on water.
Just won’t happen.
Malcolm
240. I realise there are those on PB.C who have an allergic reaction to any Patriotic [sic] policies. But surely even the most self-hating leftist most agree that (Mayoral Candidate) Councillor Richard Barnbrook Policies are what Londoners want & need.
Policies For You:
- House British people first – it’s only fair
If by “British” you mean white, I disagree
- Stop immigration
I disagree
- Build a better NHS
Everybody agrees to that; the question is how? By employing hard-wortking immigrants as cleaners and doctors?
- Zero tolerance on crime and yobs
I disagree
- British jobs for British workers
I disagree
- Scrap the congestion charge
I agree
- Lower Council Taxes
Not necessarily
- Better education for all our people
Everybody agrees to that - the question is how? By teaching bigotry, racism, Christianity, “patriotism”, homophobia?
The Patriots have been chosen to appear first in the ‘Mayoral booklet’ which is being delivered to 5.3 millions homes later this month.
No they haven’t; Richard Branbrook has.