Does the ICM data suggest backing Boris again?
April 4th, 2008
Would he have had a bigger lead with a different turnout approach?
With the publication of two polls showing very different pictures of the UK’s biggest political betting event for years there’s going to be even more scrutiny of how the figures are produced. There are matters in relation to the YouGov approach that I have written to Peter Kellner about that I hope to discuss in the next few days
In the meantime we now have the detailed data from ICM which on Wednesday night reported top-line figures of a Johnson margin of just one per cent.
As I discussed at the time the survey caused me to close down a large part of my betting position on the Tory. Now, after looking at the detail from ICM, I am back backing Boris again.
The challenge for pollsters in this election is dealing with lowish turnouts. For how can pollsters be sure that those who say they will vote in a particular way actually do so? There’s not a very good history here for in the 2000 and 2004 elections turnouts were in the mid-30s which led to some skewed figures from the phone pollsters with big over-statements of Ken’s position.
Like in all ICM voting intention polls those Londoners interviewed for the Mayoral race were asked to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 how certain it is that they would vote. Reproduced above is the relevant section of data and as can be seen Boris supporters 59% rated themselves as “certain” compared with 49% for Ken. So if the poll was just restricted to just them then Boris has 43% to Ken’s 36%. Taking the 9/10s into account as well the split becomes Boris 41% to Ken’s 35%.
Some pollsters weight responses so an 8/10 answer is only worth four-fifths of the value of a 10/10. ICM don’t do this - everybody rating themselves as 7/10 or more is included and given the same value.
Now this approach might be right for general election voting intentions but will it work in a much lower turnout election like the one on May 1st? If I was a Ken backer I would be worried by the lower certainty ratings. We’ll know when the results are declared but the ICM data has given me the confidence to put four figures bets on Boris again.
Latest mayoral betting is here.
New format betting section. The betting odds search engine, Bestbetting.com, has revised our betting odds pages and added new facilities such as an historical odds feature. The firm pays a commission share which helps keep the site going. Please use these links for all your betting needs - not just politics.
MessageSpace Advertising
When the polls come out shouldn’t we get big blobs of multiple Boris at the top of the thread?
Where is this alleged New Labour blue swastika? The link in the previous thread wasn’t working properly and wouldn’t let me log on properly to see it.
Considering how much of a loser Ken has looked recently, this poll must be fairly encouraging for him. You’d have expected his numbers to fall through the floor. Personally I’d prefer him to win but I must say I’d rather lost hope. A glimmer has been restored.
1. The Labour swastika thing is one of the most laughable attempts ever to embarrass a political party. Google it if you’re that interested, and you’ll see it.
3. Google what? Where? I tried googling it. I can’t find it. What? Where? Give me a link. I googled “Labour swastika” and it sent me straight back here. I news-googled “New Labour blue swastika” and various other things and didn’t find anything useful. If someone has seen it, just show me the link! Grrrr, bah humbug…
3. Would it be so hard to provide a link? Maybe I’m just being thick, but I’ve Googled every combination of ‘New Labour’ and ’swastika’ I can think of, and haven’t found this story. Could you perhaps suggest where those of us not in the know could find out about it?
4. Heh, snap.
6. Snap? I’ll snap someone’s head off in a minute if someone doesn’t show us a bliddy frothing link… Grrrrr….
Found it (via Guido and ConservativeHome).
Original post: http://www.order-order.com/2008/04/bad-start-for-new-no-10-digital-media.html
Updates:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/04/promoting-natio.html
http://www.order-order.com/2008/04/do-you-think-this-is-herr-brauns.html
As ConHome reports, the site has now been password-protected, and my guess is that if it is re-opened to the public the offending image will be gone, with no evidence that it ever existed. But the story’s not hugely implausible - after the screw-up that was the logo for the London 2012 Olympics, I can believe that some idiot actually thought this would be a good idea for a logo.
4,5. It’s been removed, every last trace, which takes a lot of technical know-how and effort. You won’t find it again.
Expect the Downing Street site to come back shortly with a subliminal Star of David somewhere…
Luckily Guido captured it earlier…
http://www.order-order.com/
Anyone in the PC brigade object to the three-legged swastika?
http://www.isle-of-man.ws/images/isle-of-man_governorsflag.gif
Thank god they’re autonomous..
It wouldn’t be the first time the Hakenkreuz was worn by a Brit…
http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/2WWameryJ3.JPG
http://www.bills-bunker.de/mediac/400_0/media/DIR_9816/colourposter.jpg
http://www.daswolf.co.uk/brit_fee.jpg
http://www.diggerhistory.info/images/asstd2/bfc03.jpg
A distant relative of mine… say no more..
I did say that when the innards of the poll came out they would show Boris was fine. Roll on May 1st
11 Eh?
I agree with Mike that differential turnout may be the key and his comment on pollsters dealing with lowish turnouts very relevant . Should we not therefore treat the Yougov poll results with even greater suspicion as their results are based on a turnout rate of 80% plus amongst their panel sample .
Further to Mark’s point can I ask Mike to enquire about the objection on the Sky blog that YG oversampled voters 55 plus?
O/T looks like Jimmy Carter is supporting Obama.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/04/wuspols104.xml
re 14 & 15. I have written Peter Kellner to ask for comment about the point in Adam Boulton’s blog about YouGov over-weighting the over 55s. My own researches suggest that this is the case but I need to wait another day for the YouGov response.
I have to say that I am much happier with the ICM approach subject to my comments above on differential turnout certainty. I wrote to ICM’s Nick Sparrow on Wednesday on this very point and am waiting for his response.
Ken has an unfair advantage. His children alone give him a big head start.
Rumour reaches us that the News of the World is to run an eight-page exclusive pull-out giving a blow-by-blow account of Brian Paddick’s sex life to date. The working title is “Helmets I Have Known and Loved”, although the editorial team are polishing it at the moment.
14. An 80% turnout among members of their panel would not be implausible, though it does strike me as a touch on the high side. The sort of people who sign up for YouGov will by their nature be the sort to like ‘doing’ things, and I can well imagine voting falling into that category. Given the high profile of political opinion polls as against others that the firm runs, I can also see a disproportionately large number of politically active people signing up, both because they’re interested and because they’d quite like to help their side (whether it does or not is a different matter - I suppose it depends on how truthful they are in their profile).
17 then if both approaches are weighted correctly, they give BoJo about a 6% lead? still more than enough to win comfortably.
PS I think turnout will be high in this election, at least relatively.
19.
Going back to the ICM poll, this has 2/3rds of respondents saying they are certain to vote. That won’t happen. I’m not convinced the filter filters.
If I’m a newspaper commissioning a poll, it won’t worry me. I’m buying a story, that’s all. But if I were running a contender’s campaign, I’d feel I had poor value for money. Do the private polls have an additional filter?
One noticable thing to me about the figures above is the second preference stats. Livingstone has a 16% lead at the 10/10 level, but this drops to 1% for all those in the 7/10-10/10 range. Paddick’s certainty level is even higher.
This looks like another reason to back Boris. The strength of the support for the non-Tory/Labour candidates in the second preference vote matters hugely to whoever is behind. These are essentially wasted votes, as the odds on the top two not being Boris and Ken are surely pretty long (any suggestions? 20/1?). If most who intend to use their vote in this way are fairly certain that they’ll do so, then the winning line starts to fall some way below 50% of all votes cast, so the task becomes much bigger for whoever is behind after the first ballot.
No fewer than two-thirds of Paddick’s second preferences are 10/10s, rising to almost five-sixths for the 7/10-10/10. Others have more than two-fifths at 10/10, rising to the same five-sixths for the 7/10-10/10 range.
It is true that many of these second preferences may not be counted anyway - a lot will be second preference to Boris or Ken - and but some will not and they will matter.
The press coverage of the, ‘Livingstone Revelations’ is either muted or even sympathetic, wonder if it could actually boost Ken?
The Telegraph even printing this charming picture!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/03/nlivingstone103.xml
Brings a lump to the throat!
Morning All,
1. Don’t write off Hillary yet. there is a clear pattern of Obama pulling up/ahead in the big states and then her clinching it in the end. No reason why this has to happen this time but none why it won’t either. As ultimately its an expectations game her lead narrowing for several weeks before the vote is actually helpful to her. If shes 20% ahead all the way then its less of a story.
2. Not sure I believe the MORI. the LD/COns figures look well in line with recent stuff but they seem to be adding 4 or 5 points to labour that are going “Others” in other polls. NO wonder they can’t sell it to anyone and publish it weeks late.
3. Ken. well some of the posts on previous threads diminish the site. If you are appalled by Kens sex life you hardly going to vote for Paddick or Johnstone in protest !
26
p.s.
I thought vegetables were OK?
O/T Another PA poll showing Obama/Clinton very close:
http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/72402
Ladbrokes still offering 4/9 Obama on its 12% PA primary handicap which is looking more and more attractive.
Taking the polls we know of at face value there were two neck and neck then two weeks later one showing Boris had bounded into a 12% lead then a week later it was 10% and a week after that back to 1%. The 12% and 10% followed some pretty nasty expose’s on TV and in the press. The 1% came after the expose’s were digested and found to be unimportant. ICM’s might be the more reliable underlying reading.
To any realistic chance of Ken winning he has to start as underdog. It’s the only way he’ll motivate his own supporters and get the ’stop Boris brigade’ off their backsides.
Straw PB poll. Does anybody here think Ken will win re-election?
I’m a no.
31. Given its record you have to take yougov seriously and they are saying “No” so at time of writing so would I. However this is a new kind of race in Britain and the American examples suggest that these sort of leads can be turned round particualy as we have 26 days which is an eternity in political terms.
31
Now there’s a surpise!
I’m a perhaps, but hopes not, as I’m itching to see what Boris will do when elected, its going to be great fun.
27 Mori face to face polls do overstate Labour and understate Others compsred to telephone polls but the difference is around 2% not the 5% you mention . Comres by contrast always overstate Others thjough the reason is less clear .
31 - Can’t see it. It will probably end up being tight. Just looking at the state of the parties they represent would point at a Livingstone loss. Now Livingstone is likely to somewhat outperform Labour’s ratings. The issue is that Boris is one of the few Conservative candidates that can outperform the current Conservative position.
31 I’m a no - and by a surprisingly large margin too, I reckon. (15%+)
#9 Rod, impressive work by Downing Street covering their tracks and a little chilling. It’s as if it never existed - not an easy thing to do, as you say.
31. Ken is brilliant at playing the underdog and the anti establishment candidate. The press hostility which I understand is being redoubled this week-end with the serialization of a Livingstone biograpphy might just see him over the line. He will definately try to tap into the ‘he’s a bastard but he’s our bastard’ sentiment that Boris being so extravagently supported by the Mail group will engender.
11. Rod - are you are trying to wind everybody up by periodically implying you are some kind of closet Nazi?
39 I’d love to think it was a wind-up!
Maybe this was covered last night, but I missed it - what does Ken have against vegetable fetishers? “As long as you don’t involve children, animals or vegetables…”
38
The one thing working in Ken’s favour is, ‘Kinnock Syndrome’ everyone is going to vote for the challenger, right up to the ballot box, then, its, ‘Well I don’t know, Boris is a bit of a risk, can I really chance it: perhaps next time’
We have with the Ken Leavingsoon election a real test of the reliability of each of the pollsters. The question is what is the best way of forecasting the Ken Leavingstoned’s vote
A huge sample from the computer literate = Yougov
Polling without weighting = Mori
Polling with weighting Comres etc etc
This should be the real point of interest for pb com, not Ken Livinginsin’s bedroom habits.
41
No vegetables! Saturday night is not going to be the same: there goes the Covent Garden Vote!!
This ken kid thing won’t affect him much, but I see some supporters as being turned off. Not that many, but some. Boris and Paddick have both refused to say anything about it which is the right tactic.
For the record, I think Livingstone is going to lose, and lose badly.
38. Kiss of death to Ken! “Wodger” has backed him as a sure winner!
With Wodgers reputation for tipping on this site, they’ll be cracking open bottles of champagne in the Boris campaign office this morning!!
Back Boris fast!
reposted from the last thread as Mark obviously missed it.
Mr Senior - you’re on for a tenner on 120 tory gains in the local elections (net gains natch). Just so I can be holier than thou I’ll get you to send my winnings to charridy. I’ll email PtP tomorrow.
if you’d rather not bet mark just say so.
46 - I can’t wait to see his concession speech. I reckon that about 20 seconds in he will blame the Evening Standard or Andrew Gilligan!
48 - I’ll be amazed if the Tories make any sort of number of gains on May 1, given the areas where the elections are being held I’d expect them to paint +50 as a good night, especially if Boris wins as well
49. Yeah, it Ken lose’s no doubt he and Labour will blame it all on a right wing conspiracy from the Standard, rather than addressing the real issues, which are the awful negative campaign they have been running so far and that miserable Scottish socialist we have in Downing St, who will surely turn out to be one of the biggest vote losers in British political history!
49. Yes, a hysterical and sour rant of the highest order looks on the cards, a fine blend of Dave Spart/ColinW/Mark Senior/Tyson/Roger.
As well as Gilligan and the ES, we can perhaps expect some kind of reference to zionist groups, ‘fascists’,'racists’,'the establishment’ and many other traditional Spartist targets.
Perhaps we can have a betting market on which of these groups or characters gets mentioned first?
49. Yes, a hysterical and sour rant of the highest order looks on the cards, a fine blend of Dave Spart/ColinW/Mark Senior/Tyson/Roger..
As well as Gilligan and the ES, we can perhaps expect some kind of reference to zionist groups, ‘fascists’,'racists’,'the establishment’ and many other traditional Spartist targets.
Perhaps we can have a betting market on which of these groups or characters gets mentioned first?
50.
(a) A Boris victory will overshadow everything else
(b) I remember very similar things being said last year. Even the best of us (Sean Fear etc? Predicted only ~+550 gains) - the average prediction was around + 300.
And the Torys made over 900 gains.
53. The really interesting question is how many losses the Lib Dems will make…
48 A deal but to be fair you should note that the new shadow unitaries are new seats so cannot be counted as gains or losses for any party although it will be possible to compute theoretical notional gains for these seats .
43
I respect polls, but we shouldn’t forget, they are, ‘NOT’ predictors of the future, they are snapshots of opinion. They cannot guard against, sudden events which change opinion, (ERM etc) or and the most difficult of all, ‘cold feet.’
Extrapolation of information, is a very, ‘dodgy’ business, take for instance, gas lighting, if you were to graph the growth of gas lighting from 1850, you could say with absolute certainty that the entire country would have gas lighting by 1950, of course up pops electricity, result no one has gas lighting by 1950.
Remember the marble in the saucer game? put a marble on the edge of a saucer, and point it inwards, ask someone what will happen if you let the marble go, they reply, ‘It will roll into the saucer, jiggle about and settle down, you say, ‘Why?’. They reply, ‘Its your Newton’s laws innit’ You bet them that if they do it, within 10 goes it won’t, they take you on, on the fifth or thereabouts, you hit the saucer of the table, sending the marble and the saucer flying across the room. They complain and say, ‘You didn’t tell me you were going to do that’ You reply, ‘I didn’t say I wouldn’t, welcome to the real world, there are no rules here’
Politics! is a bit like that!
51 Livingstone can’t win this election on the back of a core vote strategy. He has to keep those boroughs that normally vote Conservative but which backed him in 2004. His campaign has done nothing but alienate people in those places.
52/54 Creatures of the night are usually back in their coffins at this time of the day .
Sifference is Kinnock was seen as annoying but the only alternative, Boris is seen as being rather likeable if a bit daft. The Ken and Labour campaign has tried to make him out to be a nasty right winger, and a bumbler at the same time. These two conflicting messages plus the voters intense dislike of labour have given Boris a serious chance of victory.
57. I’m suprised Labour haven’t come up with the obvious solution to this problem - repatriating parts of outer London to their original counties. Losing Bromley, Romford, Barnet, Kingston etc. plus mass immigration would keep their hold on London pretty firm wouldn’t it?
I’m sure the Newt would feel much more comfortable not having to trawl for votes among the suburban capitalist running dogs who inhabit these areas. On the other hand, losing the opportunity to lord it over them would be a blow..
53 - was this part of this year’s predictions competition? Anyone know what the average prediction was?
42 clutching at straws…
For anyone still confused by the Swastika references at 11, here’s a link to the Britisches Freikorps, a sad but insignificant and brif episode in history.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Free_Corps
Hope Ken has a book deal in the pipeline - without his fat mayors salary he’ll be stuggling to meet his support payments.
62
refer to 33
[57] Indeed. I had a look at Boris’s website and certainly I can see nothing in his transport or housing promises that ought to cause a single Labour borough Council leader the slightest problem. (Or, come to that, enthuse a Conservative one…)
As a friend said to me yesterday, if all they can argue about is the shape of the buses in London, why should the outcome make a blind bit of difference?
31: perhaps, hope so.
49: I was invited to a TV debate this week (on civil liberties) by a foreign news channel, to be chaired by Andrew Gilligan. I said “Hell, no, not if he’s supposed to be a neutral chair”, and the TV bod said despondently, “That’s what people keep saying.” You have to be an awfully dim ES reader not to work out that Gilligan has a very definite set of views. Nothing wrong with that as long as they’re clearly editorial opinion rather than supposedly unbiased reporting.
66
You get the feeling, that somwhere along the line, they’ll be comparing willies.
67. For goodness sake Nick - if all politicians took your view then no Conservative would ever appear on “Brown lickspittle” Andrew Marr’s show or Dianne Abbot (or other leftie) wouldn’t work with Andrew Neil.
Pathetic !
63 being a longstanding, regular poster, RodCrosby was allowed to get away with denying the gas chambers on this site. Even Labour Mp Nick Palmer defended him. Now he posts appproving pictures of Britons in Nazi costume, proudly claiming a family connection. He also called objections to he swastika “the pc brigade”.
I was accused the other day of asking for Emily to be banned. For the avoidance of doubt, I dont want Rod banned, but I do thinkn Mike should make it clear that Holocaust denial and multiple links to the British Freikorps are not what this site is all about.
67. Oh come on Nick, since when were journalists ever ‘unbiased’? Every one has their own angle and you and your mates have never batted an eyelid when left-leaning journalists at the BBC and elsewhere have put heavily pro-Labour slants on stories, or run stories largely or even solely with the intention of trying to damage the Tories. Your whining about the media is pathetic and just shows how worried you are about losing.
ps Nick as you are around, can you condemn post eleven since to my eyes you gave a free pass on the “gas chamber myth” earlier
69: Well, why *should* I go on a foreign TV debate if I don’t like the chair and expect him to be biased? For the money? To influence Iranian voters? (It’s Press TV, an Iranian broadcaster, though they get shown in other Middle Eastern countries.)
O/T: TB on religion, engaging as ever (IMO - and
I’m an atheist):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/04/nblair104.xml
63. Interesting that there were so few British recruits to the charmingly named ‘Freikorps’ - even from among POWs.
What a contrast with the many thousands of Frenchmen who volunteered to fight in Germany colours - on some estimates a rather greater number than fought with De Gaulle’s Free French.
73. I can only assume you are chicken or lazy.
Frank Field seems to be advising Gordon Brown to bribe low-paid working families with “lump sum payments” before the May 1st elections. Why can’t the odious Brown just cancel this months grossly unfair abolition of the 10% tax rate and keep his grubby hands off the money in the first place?
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/frank_field/2008/04/clunking_fist_indeed.html
72. Oh why don’t you take your Witchfinder General attitudes somewhere else? You really are the most incredible bore.
72: I agree with your post at 70, test. My previous comment was basically that we shouldn’t be drawn into a debate on the holocaust (I think that anyone with any sense is clear that it happened precisely as generally understood, and it’s a waste of time and space on this forum to debate with those who disagree). But Rod does seem to be making a habit of dragging things like this before us in a “look what the cat brought in” way, even though they’ve got nothing to do with political trends or betting, and I’d like to ask him to desist.
77. Because he’s an idiot. Brown has the strategic planning ability of the French army in the franco-prussian war. He’s still fighting the last election, not the next one, and thinks he can win by bashing the tories and using tractor figures. Removing the 10% will give him some much needed cash to make himself look better to the middle classes. I can’t really see any other reason for making the poorest even poorer.
As this is meant to be a betting site…
The LibDem seats price on SpreadFair has fallen sharply for the first time in over a year. It held in a dull 48-50 range through all of last year’s troubles and yet in the past week or so has dropped to 44-45. Anyone got any thoughts as to why?
N.B. I have no money on this as I don’t think it’s liquid enough to be worthwhile and I think it’s too far from the GE to assess how many ‘none of the above’ voters there will be. If I were betting, though, I would see them at the 40 mark on current trends.
The problem with reintroducing the 10% tax rate is that all tax payers would benefit, Unless the higer rate band was increased. Unfortunately Labour feel they are commited by their manifesto -not to increase the higher rate.
I think manifestos should have use by date, perhaps 2 years from publication. Things change, the MPs have it half right - reintroduce the 10% band but also put a couple of percent on the top rate to pay for it (or better a new top rate at £100k plus)
Mike, I’ve just tried your link to the best odds section and come up with this on the banner:
“The GOP nomination seems to have narrowed into a two horse race, after Guiuliani’s high risk strategy failed to come off in Florida. McCain’s victorys in Florida and New Hampshire gives the advantage to a man who was written off only a few weeks ago. Compare odds here.
Bet on USA: Republican Candidate now!”
In need of an update, possibly?
Off topic.
Interesting article on Real Clear Politics outlining how Mrs Clinton might win the popular vote in the Democratic primary election.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html
Mike - I’m not certain ICM have done their normal 7+/10 filter. The blurb before the tables says they have, but if you actually add up the number of Conservatives at 7+/10 the number of Labour at 7+/10 etc, it doesn’t total to the figures on the next table.
On the other hand, if you total them up taking 10/10s as 1 person, 9/10s as 0.9, 8/10s as 0.8 and so on down the line (ICM’s old approach) the figures stack up.
I don’t think it makes a significant difference actually, but there goes.
With some MPs expenses being published today and all by October, what are the odds on one or more MPs having to resign?
59. Good morning to you too Mark!
Kiss kiss kiss! xxxxxxxx
56
48 A deal but to be fair you should note that the new shadow unitaries are new seats so cannot be counted as gains or losses for any party although it will be possible to compute theoretical notional gains for these seats .
Mark, as there are elections being held there I think it is fairest to use the notional gains in those areas (three is it?). I expect the tories to gain well over 50 seats but 120 is pushing it so I’ve been very generous - unlike you with your comments
I will email PtP
85. So Anthony… you don’t think that this ICM poll is too generous to Livingstone then? Do you think its fair and doesn’t matter much either way how they filter/weight votes?
Do you think that turnout is adequately dealt with, or do you think it assumes it will be too high?
64,000 dollar question – do you think Boris’ “real” lead is higher than what this poll suggests when you factor in the above?!
89. ICM for the Guardian - no sums required.
re 77 just for the record, here is a government quote at the time of the Frank Field debate mentioned
Chief Secretary to the Treasury It is a very striking attribute of the Budget that the biggest proportionate gains go to the households on the lowest incomes.
And these were the Labour members who voted with Frank Field against the abolition of the 10p band
Corbyn, Jeremy
Field, rh Mr. Frank
Hoey, Kate
Hopkins, Kelvin
Jones, Lynne
McDonnell, John
Simpson, Alan
I don’t notice the name of the honourable member for Broxotowe - who he know to have doubts about this policy - on this list. Well Nick it’s a bit late now to be worrying about your majority, you had your chance last June.
I’m still hoping that Mike gives us a picture of Gordon dressed up as the Sheriff of Nottingham - he robbed from the poor to give to the rich - tomorrow.
72- Channel 4 News is still the king of Pro-Labour (Or at least very anti-tory) bias.
79 thanks Nick.
87 Good morning casino , my post did not refer to yours seems the post renumbering had it’s sometimes weird effect . The posts I referred to are now 53/55 .
But yet there are Conservatives (including DC) on it week after week. Perhaps they are less touchy than others.
61. i know this was tongue in cheek but some of the outer london boroughs do actually want out - after all they have lower crime and few tube stations so precious little of the GLA tax is spent on them.
Lennon 41.Vegetables can also be mistreated. I recall from many years ago, a lady was known throughout the office as “Fruit and veg”. I won’t elaborate.
92. Jon Snow is the most punchable man on the telly imho
96- Croydon will only become part of Surrey over my dead body!
91 Thank you, Chris A, for this list. Only seven honourable MPs in the Parliamentary Labour Party (but some of my favourites are there).
The Parrot of Broxtowe has explained that, for him, being a Labour MP precludes independent thought. For the good of the cause. My party right or wrong. Squawk.
So, it’s no so surprise to find he’s not there.
75- Gollop
“What a contrast with the many thousands of Frenchmen who volunteered to fight in Germany colours - on some estimates a rather greater number than fought with De Gaulle’s Free French.”
This is revisionism at its best. I don’t understand why some posters here still indulge in French bashing when there is a debate about British past…
For your information:
- The Légion des volontaires français (or LVF) had 5800 men. This is the smallest ratio of any occupied country in Europe. To give a simple comparison, the Belgian volunteers were more than 20 000.
- The Free french were more than 50 000 at end 1941,
more than 70 000 at end 1942,
more than 500.000 after the liberation of Northern Africa (1943)and the new French army was a million strong after the liberation of the mainland.
(obviuosly i don’t mention here the tens of thousands that joined interior resistance and the maquis. The Vercors Maquis only had more fighters than the LVF…)
Most of these were volunteers often very young, that had been hiding to escape forced work in Germany (and were desperate ti fight against nazism. My grandfather was one. Aged 19, he fought during 1 year and commanded a small unit formed in the South of France that went all the way to Austria, fighting.
For the memories of such men, your imbecile untruth about the relative size of pro-nazi volunteers and De Gaulle-supporting ones should be retracted. thanks in advance.
96. Indeed. Bromley seems an obvious choice for ‘UDI’.
i thought abolishing the 10% tax rate was a great idea and much needed simplification.
the only undesirable side effect was the new band of relative low earners that do slightly worse under the new rules.
i would have thought the obvious solution would be
* raise the 20% threshold appropriately to offset this (when the country can afford this tax cut).
* consider lowering the 40% threshold to offset this, in turn
rather than
* reintroducing the unnecessary complication of the 10% band.
100. Perhaps Andrew Gilligan was in the press box intimidating him ?
102. The best idea would have been to raise the threshold to eliminated the 10% band - no losers then.
yep although no losers in the tax system = country goes bankrupt!
102. oddly enough the people doing slightly worse off are those that havent got much to begin with.
99. as some of the crank posters this morning might say
“croydon is a part of surrey already”
105. No losers in the tax system = the government goes bankrupt, not the country.
Beating up Nick Palmer about the abolition of the 10% band is a bit harsh. I regret its abolition and personally would have liked to have seen its expansion, but it affects most people who were in the 10% band marginally (thanks to other measures) and while a few people are affected more substantially, this is a fairly minor matter. A few backbench MPs can parade their conscience, but I fail to see why Mr Palmer should give up his perch at the bottom of the Government ladder on such a small issue. Far better to fight from the inside. Resignations should be kept for big points of principle.
Current India-SA score:
India 76
South Africa 450/6 (132 ov)
*OUCH*!
106. yes and that’s the undesirable thing. they did do some compensating to limit this effect, they probably gambled that they had done “just enough” to prevent any negative reaction to this (while picking up positive reaction from the 22%->20% cut). in fact the press took a different line.
but i think that removing the band long term is a very good thing.
* simplification of this system = good, in my view
* having any tax (even only 10% of some of it) on the lowest wage-earners = no motivation to get off benefits into work. i think the 0% tax allowance should be as large as possible for this reason.
can always make up the difference with lower thresholds for the other bands
101. If you add in the Vichy forces, including the colonial troops, then the balance is massively pro-Axis for 1940-1943 at least. It’s telling that you choose to ignore this detail, mon cher. Of course, you could argue that these men were ‘only obeying orders’
111. a collegue of mine works part time in order to look after his kinds, mainly because his wife is a nurse and works daft hours. He has been hit by the tax increase, but isn’t get any more tax credits. As you can imagine, he is less than thrilled.
re 102 Ed so you think it’s a moral and just policy to make those earning £8,000 per year pay £212 more income tax until the country “can afford” to cut their tax.
The obvious policy was not to rob them to pay the better off in the first place. I’ve never been a government supporter but this whole policy makes me extremely angry. It’s completely immoral. I’m not unhappy that the government wants to shoot itself in the foot, and balls and head for good measure, but it doesn’t make it right.
kinds=kids, my spelling today.
113. I bet he’s glad inflation is only 2%, interest rates are at a historic low and the country is in good shape to ride out any economic storms ?
112. Indeed. There was no logical reason for colonial French troops to remain loyal to Vichy. They were hardly directly threatened by the Axis.
They even chose to FIGHT THE AMERICANS during Operation Torch, when it was 100% clear the Allies would prevail and resistance was pointless. Anti-semitism and facism was a much stronger force in France than the UK - by a country mile.
It is also worth noting that the French Navy refused to surrender its ships to the Royal Navy in 1940, when it was quite clear that if they did not do so, the Nazis would have got their hands on them.
Chris - I intend no offence btw - there were many brave and noble Frenchment but, sadly, they weren’t in the majority.
re 109 antifrank I bet you don’t earn £8000 a year. And if you did I can’t see you voluntarily giving away nearly 3% of your income so the government can bribe the middle classes.
“Marginal” indeed! What a bloody insult.
re 111 “simplification” of the tax system? This is a joke surely? Gordon Brown’s meddling led to the most ridiculous complicated and arcane tax system practically anywhere in the world.
[75] - According to the wiki, there was a list of over 1000 POWs who were interested, but it seems the unit was undermined since the only people with any calibre involved were trying to sabotage it. A lot then down to happenstance and the bravery of individuals - not sure you can draw comparisons to other countries as a result.
116. Fortunately he paid for the house a few years back, wasnt an expensive one when they bought it (now its worth a shedload) so he can afford to keep working. Although he says if things get worse he can get a better amount on benefits.
68: ‘You have to be an awfully dim ES reader not to work out that Gilligan has a very definite set of views.’
Gilligan can’t be all that bad: in the past he’s cited PB.com when rebutting dodgy opinion-poll interpretations in the media.
119 - No, it’s really not a joke, the combined changes reduced the number of bands of income tax and aligned income tax and national insurance thresholds. From the tone of your post you seem opposed to complexity in the system so I presume you welcome this simplification?
[111] - Different rates for tax bands is far from being a complex aspect of the tax system. If they really wanted to simplify the system they could give up the pretence and merge NICs with income tax, and even that would touch many of the really complicated bits and pieces.
114. Interesting that the first pay-cheques which will reflect this tax cut will be at the end of this month - the last week of April. This is barely days before the local elections and - probably - far too late to affect the result.
I’d imagine those earning between £17-£31K will be around £10-£30 better off a month as a result??
Even if there are, which I am, £20 better off this is easily wiped out by my higher fuel, energy, council tax and food bills which are (at least) £20, £30, £10 and £20 more a month respectively than they were 12 months ago.
And I’m a frugal spender..
Personally I find the London contest pretty dispiriting- and the LAST thing it is about is issues. It is game show politics of the first water.
So now we have a contest between two of the biggest gargoyles in British politics. In the red corner, the shifty and slightly seedy figure of the current incumbent, who, in addition to rumours about his drinking, is revealed as a rather irresponsible philanderer. Meanwhile the ethical questions about his relationship with Hugo Chavez remain unanswered and allegations of corruption involving large sums of money and unqualified individuals like Lee Jasper continue to swirl around him.
Then there is BoJo who also seems to have a long history of playing away too, since he seems to have cheated on each of his wives on a pretty regular basis. The questionable nature of his relationship with Darius Guppy where he is recorded as agreeing to take part in an assault on the journalist Stuart Collier was a pretty spectacular lapse of judgement.
So… er… none of the above anyone?
118 - how many people on £8,000 a year are losing nearly 3% of their income as a result of last year’s budget? It’s disingenuous to present one change without considering others made at the same time. There are some losers, but it is indeed marginal.
118 - how many people on £8,000 a year are losing nearly 3% of their income as a result of last year’s budget? It’s disingenuous to present one change without considering others made at the same time. There are some losers, but it is indeed marginal.
124 - Merging tax and NICs is something they want to do but it is not as simple as you might think and is particularly difficult to do without consequent negative impacts on disdvantaged groups. The complexity has arisen historically and the easy simplifications have been doen, anyone who knows how to finish the job in a pain-free way would get a very warm welcome over in the Treasury.
117-
To make myself clear: I only contest the patent untruth that Frenchmen that “volunteered to fight in Germany colours” outnumnbered the Free french as Gollop pretended at 75-
More details:
“It is also worth noting that the French Navy refused to surrender its ships to the Royal Navy in 1940, when it was quite clear that if they did not do so, the Nazis would have got their hands on them.”
Wrong. the proof is that when the Nazis tried to snatch it, the French Navy sank its ships in Toulon in 1942. Not a single French boat was used by the Axis during the whole war.
As for your other arguments: did the Vichy army hold any battle for/alongside the germans? No. Did they accompany them in any expedition in Russia or Africa? No.
They remained loyal to Vichy France and some even (for 3 days) did fight an invasion of French territory unoccupied by the Axis (North Africa). I don’t say that it was the right thing to do but it’s not what gollop was talking about: “volunteering to fight in Germany colours”.
Indeed few Frenchmen were brave enough to volunteer for the Free French forces, at least before 1943. But they outnumber those that “volunteered to fight in Germany colours” by a factor of at least 15 (not including the maquis, which were thousands of men strong even in 1942)
And this is the opposite of what gollop said.
[128] - But the losers are concentrated amongst those that are the poorest already. How on earth could a Labour government have made that happen?
And all, lest we forget, for the purpose of pulling a rabbit out of the hat to wrongfoot Cameron. That was worthwhile now wasn’t it?
127
The whole point is that the the losers, however small, are the ones with very little to begin with. And it’s not just working people, it’s pensioners with small (thanks to this government) occupational pensions.
131 - I don’t think the change is a good idea either - I thought I’d already said that. The purpose of my original post was to defend Nick Palmer from the unfair suggestion that he should have given up his career over it.
Ladbrokes’ website, never the friendliest and always the ugliest, appears to be inpenetrable this morning so far as the political betting pages are concened. Try turning on the switch Shadsy!
131
Fine, but none of the other Labour MP’s who stood against it have lost their jobs have they? I find it incredible to believe that there were so few Labour MP’s on that list. It is appalling.
” Frank Field seems to be advising Gordon Brown to bribe low-paid working families with “lump sum payments” before the May 1st elections. ”
The last paragraph is a hoot:-
” They might also, hopefully, abate the anger that will be inflicted on innocent Labour councillors standing in this year’s local elections. ”
Yeah, right - just like they’d not turn against the Tories if they had scrapped the 10p rate. Isn’t this all just a balance sheet move though, most low paid working families people will now recieve even more family credit. It’s the single low paid person who will suffer the most. It would be better for them to be the on the dole probably.
I notice the Tories held both their by-election results yesterday down in the South-West, with increased margins in both seats.
130- True, but then those French ships would have been very useful during the Battle of the Atlantic.
131- Yes, it made Labour MPs feel very smug, for about half an hour.
Would the French navy really have been a help? Haven’t you read Hornblower?
Zim is turning very ugly. After the overnight raids, the riot police are everywhere and it looks as though Zanu-PF will declare a state of emergency and nullify the parliamentary election and then ram through a Mugabe victory in a spurious second round. MDC people are going into hiding.
135 - those MPs are all backbenchers. I absolutely disagree with your point about the number of Labour MPs on the list. Rebellions should be saved for major matters.
134. I can’t find anything wrong Peter. What are you seeing?
75. As a matter of fact they were not called the Freikorps, but the “British Free Corps.”
120. They may have been few in number, but I have a distant connection with two of them. One, Francis George MacLardy, was an old-boy of my school, and another (Irishman) was a distant relative of mine.
to clarify, i don’t think (and never said) that the detail was particularly well thought out (or if it was, they gambled on this not making the headlines and lost).
what i meant was that the broad ideas of reducing the number of bands (and aligning NI and tax) are very good ones. much better and more interesting than gimmicky arguments over e.g. non-doms which both main parties have seemed to get drawn into.
137. really? I thought the lib dems always did well in by-elections
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7330083.stm
More bad figures on personal debt. Its the economy stupid.
PA reports:Tories cruised to easy victories in this week’s only two council by-elections.
They boosted their majority over Liberal Democrats at Dunkeswell, East Devon District and comfortably won at Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary, Fenland District, Cambridgeshire where they had been unopposed last time.
RESULTS:
East Devon District - Dunkeswell: C 349, Lib Dem 162. (May 2007 - C 411, Lib Dem 240). C hold. Swing 5.2% Lib Dem to C.
Fenland District - Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary: C 646, Lab 191, Ind 119, Ukip 55, Lib Dem 35. (May 2007 - C unopposed). C hold.
[133] - Yes, the baiting of Nick Palmer is a bit mischievous, but I think you are playing down how bad this change is. The movement is, historically, in the opposite direction to the principles the Labour Party has stood for.
As you say, you oppose it, but this isn’t a change the government had to make. It wasn’t a regrettable decision forced on them by circumstances. It wasn’t the lesser of two evils. It isn’t simply a matter of falling short of what you would hope to achieve, but forming a basis for further progress. It’s actively making the situation worse.
A ‘genuine’ Labour government would have been more likely to introduce a higher rate of tax (say 50% for >£100k pa) in order to finance an expansion of the personal allowance, the 10% tax band, or both.
Instead they took money from the poor to give it to middle income earners who they hope will sway marginal constituencies.
Whilst it doesn’t measure up to something like Iraq, it does beg the question of what point of principle would see Nick Palmer, or the rest of the herd, break ranks. What would it take?
India 76
South Africa 494/7 (141.2 ov)
(AB de Villiers: 217*)
(Match delayed by rain)
India are 418 runs behind with a mere 3 days to go. I’m guessing a bet on South Africa probably isn’t going to get any value!
145. Check this thread;
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=1958.0
Two excellent results for the Conservatives. I guess Mark Senior doesn’t want to talk about it.
130. You are just dealing in semantics now. Vichy France was a Nazi puppet state, with its leaders ‘hoping for the victory of Germany’ (Laval), and anyone who remained loyal to it was a Nazi puppet by extension. The commanders of the Vichy forces at home and abroad, and their men, were willing collaborationists.
137. Strange that those results didn’t get an airing on here from Mark Senior earlier today…
142 Well 10/10 for your response time Shadsy! I can’t get beyond your home page, when I then click on one of your down betting menu, I get about 5 out of the 10 processing bars, then it stops. I’ll try the other computer and see if I experience the same problem.
149. damn work firewall!
[136] - Have they increased the rate of tax credit faster than inflation then?
Under the old working families tax credit people would indeed have gotten money back, since that was calculated on post-tax income, so if that went down due to income tax changes, they would automatically get more WFTC. However, the tax credits system now is calculated on pre-tax income, so unless the rates have been changed (by more than inflation), people on tax credits won’t get any back to compensate.
153. Local Council Byelections 03/04/2008
« on: March 07, 2008, 10:18:15 AM »
——————————————————————————–
Appears to be 2 this week :-
East Devon DC Dunkeswell Conservative seat and a straight fight between Con and LibDem
2007 result Con 411 LibDem 240
2003 result Con unopposed
Fenland DC Parsons Drove/Wisbech St Marys Conservative seat candidates not yet known
2007 result Con unopposed
2003 result Con 683/630 Lab 264
..though the massive 35 votes the Lib Dems got in Fenland and the 5% swing against them in Devon might conceivably explain it.
150- God bless the English Channel
152 PfP
I’m getting Ladbrokes fine, but I am using Firefox (my much preferred browser).
Perhaps it’s time you upgraded that steam-driven puter of yours.
ta!
“Brown fights backbench tax revolt”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7330007.stm
58 Ah the prat reappears .
130. From Wikipedia..
“Pétain and the Vichy regime willfully collaborated with Nazi Germany to a high degree. The French police organized raids to capture Jews and others considered “undesirables” by the Germans in both the northern and southern zones.”
Given the way France had BROKEN the alliance agreement with Britain by negotiating a seperate peace with the Germans. In these circumstances, how could Britain have *possibly* trusted France not to allow its ships to fall into German hands?
I think the terms and very wide range of options offered in this very politely worded ultimatum were very generous:
“It is impossible for us, your comrades up to now, to allow your fine ships to fall into the power of the German enemy. We are determined to fight on until the end, and if we win, as we think we shall, we shall never forget that France was our Ally, that our interests are the same as hers, and that our common enemy is Germany. Should we conquer we solemnly declare that we shall restore the greatness and territory of France. For this purpose we must make sure that the best ships of the French Navy are not used against us by the common foe. In these circumstances, His Majesty’s Government have instructed me to demand that the French Fleet now at Mers el Kebir and Oran shall act in accordance with one of the following alternatives;
(a) Sail with us and continue the fight until victory against the Germans.
(b) Sail with reduced crews under our control to a British port. The reduced crews would be repatriated at the earliest moment.
If either of these courses is adopted by you we will restore your ships to France at the conclusion of the war or pay full compensation if they are damaged meanwhile.
(c) Alternatively if you feel bound to stipulate that your ships should not be used against the Germans unless they break the Armistice, then sail them with us with reduced crews to some French port in the West Indies — Martinique for instance — where they can be demilitarised to our satisfaction, or perhaps be entrusted to the United States and remain safe until the end of the war, the crews being repatriated.
If you refuse these fair offers, I must with profound regret, require you to sink your ships within 6 hours.
Finally, failing the above, I have the orders from His Majesty’s Government to use whatever force may be necessary to prevent your ships from falling into German hands.”
They refused.
The scuttling you cite in late November 1942 was well after the start of Operation Torch and nowhere near comparable as the Allies were in the ascendancy and a number of French troops had already defected.
Vichy France was a disgrace.
142, 154, 160 Yes, I appear to have the same problem on my other computer - I can only think it’s something to do with the broadband connection - perhaps it’s trying to tell me something …. like don’t bet!
PtP have you seen my email this morning?
“That Guardian headline is very misleading Simon9999, tha areticle starts:
“Gordon Brown has moved to quell a backbench revolt over the abolition of the 10p income tax band amid fears it will hit some low-paid families.
Mr Brown has assured former Labour whip Greg Pope - who tabled a Commons motion calling for action - he will look again at the impact of the changes.
Mr Pope has withdrawn the motion, which was signed by about 30 Labour MPs”
It sounds as if the protest and the behind the scenes work of Nick and others has worked and the 10% band is going to be reintroduced. Well done Nick!
137 GIN thanks Con 646 LibDem 35 hahahahahahahahaaaaaaa!
103. Can you remind us who introduced the 10% tax band. Oh, it was Chancellor Brown in 1997!! Why was it done? To help the low paid who were paying too much tax under the Tories. Who removed the 10% tax band? Why, the same man in order to simplify the tax system!! And this is not the only example of going round in circles.
Where’s Ave It when you need him
168 So your argument Richard is “The Gord giveth, and the Gord taketh away. Blessed be the name of the Gord.”?
Test your cackle makes you sound like a witch (sorry witches).
166: ‘It sounds as if the protest and the behind the scenes work of Nick and others has worked and the 10% band is going to be reintroduced. Well done Nick!’
Balderdash! Do you think Brown gives two figs what Nick Palmer thinks? The man doesn’t command much respect on this web site let alone in Number 10. As for Pope, was probably told he’d get a nuclear power plant in his constituency’s town centre if he didn’t tow the line.
172- The Simpson family seem to use him alot, after all, that Hibert charges way to much.
170. But Gord may find there are fewer bums on seats the next time he wants us.
166. Icarus - you celebrate too soon.
Gordon Brown has promised he will “look again” - nothing more. An entirely meaningless phrase.
It basically gets rid of a rebellion now for absolutely no firm commitment in the future whatsoever (other than the Fuhrers promise to ‘chew it over’)
Can’t believe people fall for this ruse..
afternoon all, late start for me.
A few bits and bobs of news: Sorry if this is old news.
Boris admits: I took cocaine and cannabis in my teens
Boris Johnson gave David Cameron a major political headache today after he admitted taking cocaine and cannabis as a teenager.
*********************************************************
A police investigation is under way after a Conservative MP knocked over a cyclist with his 4×4 outside Parliament.
Chelmsford West Conservative MP Simon Burns collided with the male cyclist as he drove his Range Rover out of the House of Commons.
173- to=too, arghhhh!
War often makes strange bedfellows. Consider this letter written to Hitler by the Zionist Stern gang in 1941 (whose members included future Israeli PM Yitzhak Shamir), offering to join forces with the Nazis against England…. Truth often is stranger than fiction, isn’t it?
“It is often stated in the speeches and utterances of the leading statesmen of National Socialist Germany that a prerequisite of the New Order in Europe requires the radical solution of the Jewish question through evacuation (”Jew-free Europe”).
The evacuation of the Jewish masses from Europe is a precondition for solving the Jewish question; but this can only be made possible and complete through the settlement of these masses in the home of the Jewish people, Palestine, and through the establishment of a Jewish state in its historic boundaries.
The solving in this manner of the Jewish problem, thus bringing with it once and for all the liberation of the Jewish people, is the objective of the political activity and the years-long struggle of the Israeli freedom movement, the National Military Organization (Irgun Zvai Leumi) in Palestine.
The NMO, which is well-acquainted with the goodwill of the German Reich government and its authorities towards Zionist activity inside Germany and towards Zionist emigration plans, is of the opinion that:
1. Common interests could exist between the establishment of a new order in Europe in conformity with the German concept, and the true national aspirations of the Jewish people as they are embodied by the NMO.
2. Cooperation between the new Germany and a renewed folkish-national Hebraium would be possible and,
3. The establishment of the historic Jewish state on a national and totalitarian basis, bound by a treaty with the German Reich, would be in the interest of a maintained and strengthened future German position of power in the Near East.
Proceeding from these considerations, the NMO in Palestine, under the condition the above-mentioned national aspirations of the Israeli freedom movement are recognized on the side of the German Reich, offers to actively take part in the war on Germany’s side.
This offer by the NMO, covering activity in the military, political and information fields, in Palestine and, according to our determined preparations, outside Palestine, would be connected to the military training and organizing of Jewish manpower in Europe, under the leadership and command of the NMO.
These military units would take part in the fight to conquer Palestine, should such a front be decided upon.
The indirect participation of the Israeli freedom movement in the New Order in Europe, already in the preparatory stage, would be linked with a positive-radical solution of the European Jewish problem in conformity with the above-mentioned national aspirations of the Jewish people. This would extraordinarily strengthen the moral basis of the New Order in the eyes of all humanity.
The cooperation of the Israeli freedom movement would also be along the lines of one of the last speeches of the German Reich Chancellor, in which Herr Hitler emphasized that he would utilize every combination and coalition in order to isolate and defeat England.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehi_%28group%29
re 124 of course I welcome tax simplification - and we certainly need it after 10 years of Brown - but absolutely not as a consequence of clobbering the very poorest in society.
I never take Local By Elections that seriously on a week by by week basis wether they are Good or bad. mark Senior is too ernest for his own good and will end up in an early grave. He needs to relax more.A book. A hobby. Or more Sex.
I repeat “Mr Brown has assured former Labour whip Greg Pope - who tabled a Commons motion calling for action - he will look again at the impact of the changes.”
He cannot just look at the impact and do nothing. As it happens a bit cash in pockets is probably just what the economy needs (sorry inflation, sorry the deficit). After all that is what they are doing in the US of A - posting cheques to people.
176. Boris admitted that a couple of years ago on HIGNFY didn’t he.
re 128 again you just don’t get it. You try living on a meagre amount of money and then having 3% taken away. It’s not marginal at all it’s a staying afloat or going under issue. You would no doubt on the Titanic have been of the opinion that the boat was going to be OK because the water was only going to marginally over top the bulkheads.
Casino Royale (actually the original was one of my favourite films).
If the Labour MPs concerned would do a bit of public celebrating - Thanking the Mightly Gordon, the Compassionate One etc., etc. Then who knows he might have no option but reintroduce it.
re 134 he may yet give it up at the next election. It’s up to him to decide whether he goes down as a member of the government, or stays on as a backbencher because of a big personal vote as a result of standing up for his poorest constituents.
182. I think he’s admitted it before yes, if this is meant to be a major headache then the anti-boris lot are really reaching.
183 - you just don’t get it. Very few people had 3% taken away. It’s not nice, it’s not a good idea, but it’s just not an issue that affects that many people.
Presumably if Brown actually does make an amendment, it’s more likely to be in the form of adjusted allowances/band-widths rather that in the form of a more obvious retention of the 10p band? Retention of the 10p rate would look like more of a U-turn.
187 do the Labour MPs complaining to Brown at the PLP meeting also “not get it”?
178 anti-semitic troll. Ignore.
Just two examples of real votes in real elections yesterday and the silence from Mark Senior is quite noticeable.
Fifth place and 35 votes is a start. Just a case of the Lib Dems setting aside bad results or as the two Marks said last year. “If you ignore the elections where we did badly then we did well”
Just took part in another yougov mayoral poll. I wonder if it is a reaction to this ICM poll and whether it’s weighting methods will be the same.
175 Why Gordon Brown and not Alistair Darling? Who is the Chancellor?
It shows how distant this Government has become from real concerns, and how Gordon Brown last year was blind to anything but a quick jab at Cameron, that the argument is put forward in defence of this that “Since 1997, as a result of all the tax and benefit changes that have come into effect, people on low incomes are significantly better off.” - where for real people struggling to pay their bills what matters is that compared to March 2008 they are worse off in April 2008
184. But that’s very different to what you said Icarus – you said it sounds like “the 10p band will be introduced”!
Brown *might* do (a) if (b) does (c) - but how likely do you think that is? Labour MPs *publicly* celebrating a U-turn by Gordon to force his hand?!!
And pigs might fly!
(By the way, the original Casino Royale is terrible! The 2006 version – which is actually based on Flemings book – is miles better
)
189. Truth hurts, eh?
“He cannot just look at the impact and do nothing.”
Yes he can. Governments do it all the time. Whilst your latter statements are true, Brown simply doesn’t have the money to reintroduce the 10% band (or increase the personal allowance to make up the difference), because he spent it straight away cutting the basic rate. Not even Brown would be inept enough to make himself look like a pillock by putting the basic rate back up to 22% to fund the re-creation of the 10% band.
A common sense approach would be to increase tax on the wealthy, perhaps something obscure like further fiddling with the NI rates or thresholds, rather than something obvious like creating a new “really high” rate of income tax.
Brown’s not going to do that, because his cold-hearted political calculation is that the poor rarely vote, and when they do their votes are not counted, but rather weighed, and so their good will is immaterial to achieving the aim of a fourth term, or at least minimising the scale of defeat.
As it turns out I think he is wrong with this simplistic electoral analysis. Britain is not split up into homogeneous areas that are contiguous with parliamentary seat boundaries. There are Labour core voters in marginal seats, and encouraging a good turnout amongst them is as important as winning the support of “swing voters”. It’s what Bush did in 2004 after all.
193- The new Casion Royale is by far the best bond film.
As for the original……..not even watching it on drugs is enjoyable.
176. Can’t see that Boris news anywhere on BBC?
If it’s a low-profile story, won’t have much impact.
EDW - could you be a pal and paste the latest SPIN and Betfair prices for me??
Cheers big ears
164- Casino Royale
One last word on this, before dropping a subject that interests few people here.
“Vichy France was a disgrace” I fully share this perfectly true statement.
However, what Gollop said
“What a contrast with the many thousands of Frenchmen who volunteered to fight in Germany colours - on some estimates a rather greater number than fought with De Gaulle’s Free French.”
is both historically false and insulting.
191. I’m nervous about this poll. I’m expecting a BJ lead of about 5-6% and a slight easing in the betting price.
Is it just me or is today a very slow news day? The top story in the Wales section on BBC News is about a pub that didn’t renew it’s license. Suppose that’s Wales for you.
197
spin
B 19-20
K 14-15
bf
1.53
2.94
The Boris dope story is on the ES site, it’s not much really.
ES have a column supporting KL on tree planting.
160 PtP - Many thanks for the Firefox tip - as if by magic, Ladbrokes betting site pages are now accessible!
The only negative is that although I’ve imported my favourites, I don’t seem to be able to have these ever-present down the left hand side of my screen, instead I have to click onto bookmarks and view these in grey - so I’ll probably continue with IE as my default browser, but Firefox will be a most welcome reserve for when I experience problems.
176. No better vehicle to take out a cyclist in, less damage on one side and more rapid death on the other.
OT. I saw Frank Luntz was on This Week last night, and FWIW when asked at the end about the US elections he gave a suprisingly (to me at least) confident statement that Obama will win easily. He thinks McCain’s age difference will play very badly in the debates.
Regarding Obama’s chances in Penn with down-scale White voters versus Hillary, forget the Rev Wright comments, this will probably hurt him much more……
http://politicalhumor.about.com/b/2008/04/02/barack-obamas-bowling-disaster.htm
202 - View — Sidebar — Bookmarks (or Ctrl+B)
Personally I prefer to use the Bookmarks Toolbar which sits below the address bar and above the main browser area.
199. I have a copy of the questions asked but i’m not sure if that breaks some pb rule or not.
[203] - Thanks for that Yokel. Where are you resident just now? (just in case I have to watch out for you)
198. No argument there.
201. Cheers EDW.
190 Oh gawd first yp and no my stalker , why can’t you 2 make a post that contributes something to the overall knowledge on this board . Note I am usually busy at work on a Friday as it is a short day and early finish and the same amount of work as other days - I expect it has been so long since you 2 did a day’s honest work that will come as a surprise to you .
yellow sub - thanks for your concern but I am an avid reader , have my hobby bar billiards , part time coin business and as for the last thing , I can outclegg clegg though I have had rather more years at it .
The airline bomb plot trial is going to dominate for a while and this should
help Gordon a touch and Smith.
‘Suicide note’ video played to jury.
“We will take our revenge and anger, ripping amongst your people and scattering the people and your body parts and your people’s body parts responsible for these wars and oppression, decorating the streets.”
202: ‘The only negative is that although I’ve imported my favourites, I don’t seem to be able to have these ever-present down the left hand side of my screen…’
Try:
Ctrl B
That should bring up your bookmarks as a side panel in Firefox if memory serves me correctly.
205 Aaron, you’re a star - many thanks! As an added bonus all my favs are now in alpha order, sheer bliss.
213 Thanks Hermes - I think bI’m now sorted.
209. Hmmm, can’t attack the message, so attack the man ?
re 210 yes strange how the 42 day vote got timetabled during the trial, isn’t it?
149. Good question. What would make sheep like Nick Palmer, and the rest, ignore the snarling sheepdogs of their own “loyalty”?
Given that we have had 1. an illegal invasion of an unthreatening country that killed half a million, and 2. a total betrayal of the most solemn manifesto promise on the country’s governance, and now 3. a reversal of everything Labour supposedly stands for in its proposals on IHT and low income tax - and yet despite all this party ewes are still bleating contentedly, I fail to see anything that might make them demur.
Death penalty? Yes, always thought it was a good idea anyway. Zero immigration? Absolutely, British jobs for British workers! Dog fighting in public squares? That will keep my chavvier constituents happy.
Labour MPs are like mackerel. They swim in shoals and swallow any old crap.
“Labour MPs are like mackerel. They swim in shoals and swallow any old crap.”
LOL!
Latest Rasmussen Presidential poll for Maine :
McCain 42% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 39% .. Obama 49%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election
214 - You wouldnt last a day as an MP for any party would you Sean?
214 agree completely. what a worthless bunch they are. still hopefully there will 100+ less of them come 2010
Best political bet at the moment is Cons (most seats) on betfair at 1.67 - a nailed on free money cert.
21 “You wouldnt last a day as an MP for any party would you Sean?”
These days, many people would take that as a compliment
New CBS/NY Times Presidential and Primary Polls :
McCain 43% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 42% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 43% .. Obama 46%
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Mar08c-politics.pdf
New Research 2000 Presidential Poll for Indiana :
Clinton 49% .. Obama 46%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/In408rel.html
Paul,
I’ve e-mailed you an article. In view of the difficulties I’ve had, please let me know if you won’t get it.
Zim: “Veterans” -i.e Mugabe goons- marched through Harare this morning and police presence has been stepped up. Politburo meeting ended. Zanu-PF line is now elections are “stalemated” and that this may lead to the declaration of a state of emergency. MDC office ransacked by police last night. Mugabe despite having lost the election will now not go quietly. Violent crack-down is now looking very likely.
“Don’t get it”, I mean.
I see that Derek “I fink the asians are the rubbish in the streets” Beackon is standing for the BNP in Thurrock.
Further link to the Indiana poll :
http://www.southbendtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080403/NEWS07/228212615/1137
I see Boris is now in full ‘Mea Culpa’ flow, anything Ken can do I can do better: ‘It’ll be willies out afore bedtime’ mark my words.
http://tinyurl.com/6xazux
p.s.
In view of the fact that vegetable sex is no longer acceptable, is anyone interested in a crate of hardly used aubergines, the goat has already gone to a good home.
198. And my final (and definitive) word on the subject…
‘The exact strength of the Vichy French Metropolitan Army was set at 3,768 officers, 15,072 non-commissioned officers, and 75,360 men. All Vichy French forces had to be volunteers’
(from wiki)
Re the 10 p tax band. I just wanted to point out that even though Gordo is going to look at the 10p band again(to alleviate back bench discontent), there is little or no chance of it being altered in this tax year…if ever, far more likely some extra tax credits or some other wheeze to get Gordo out of trouble.
Lead time to change the tax band for payroll organisations is about 3-6 months IMHO so no chance b4 October and no chance of it affecting Mayoral/local elections(unless you actually believe Gordo will do anything about it, something I doubt
What was that Labour attack advert again ?
http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=162530&d=403&h=401&f=402
Nearly 60,000 homes in the UK are at high risk of repossession, government figures reveal.
Figures from the Housing Statistics 2007 report, published today by the Department of Communities and Local Government, show that almost 60,000 families with disposable incomes below £1,000 each month are paying £750 a month on mortgage payments.
The report shows almost 20,000 families earning up to £1,000 per month are spending 100% of this on mortgage repayments.
210, 215 — The would-be terrorists currently on trial were all investigated, arrested, detained, charged — and, I’ve no doubt, will eventually be convicted — perfectly effectively without the benefit of 42-day internment (or identity cards).
233- Yeah, but in an alternate reality, it might not have turned out that way, if say the entire Police force went on holiday at the same time for example, so we need 42 days “JUST INCASE”.
And so what if the Madrid bombers all had ID Cards, our ID cards will be super dupper ID cards that automaticly sound a siren if a terrorist touch them, allowing the security forces to arrest them before they can blow themselfs up.
234. It’s surprising the government hasn’t already ‘manufactured’ an incident that would bolster the case for the various repressive measures they propose.
But it’s also encouraging - despite the obvious wishes of many in New Labour to create a police state, they appear to lack the ruthlessness or competence to achieve it.
Terrifying thing is, simon, there are people in high office who really believe all that!
235. Many civil servants and labour MP’s are against it, because it’s a pointless waste of money (although that hasnt stopped them with PFI) but also because its a dangerous centrilization of peoples private information. The civil service doesnt have the money or the facilities to look after the stuff it already has, never mind a whole load of more stuff. And they know the government will blame them if anything goes wrong.
207. I dont do the dodgy driving meself, I get others to do it for me on a contracted basis. As a result I can cause accidents in Frankfurt and be safely Sunday driving in Ireland all at the same time….
Duke of Edinburgh hospitalized….
176
I do hope the cyclist isn’t you know who!!
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23474069-details/Cyclist+hurt+in+MP+crash/article.do
O/T - Grand National tommorow - I have Philson Run & Cornish Sett in the office sweepstake… Am I going to be in luck? Could any horsey betting types provide an assessment and couple of value tips? Cheers
241 - I got Cornish Sett in the office sweepstake as well - supposedly it is 100-1…
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary trackers :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 42%
McCain 47% .. Obama 44%
Clinton 42% .. Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
239. Chest infection..
Our office sweepstake allocated me Snowy Morning at 20/1 - I fancy my chances, simply because I know nothing about betting, but there always seems to be a horse that does ok from that sort of price. Anyone confirm if I’ve got a shire pony or somethign?
For those of you who are late joining this thread but wish to take part, here’s a useful summary of events to help bring you up to speed.
Labour’s Swastika
Sex with vegetables
Sex with mayors
Mark Senior’s sex life
Exploding Muslims (film version)
The Parrot of Broxtowe
Socialist mackerel
Gordon screwing the Poor
Tories flattening cyclists
Boris on Dope (allegedly)
(Betting cancelled until further notice) The Management !
Afternoon all
Re: 241 & 242 - FWIW, I’ve backed SLIM PICKINGS and MADISON DU BERLAIS for tomorrow - the latter e/w at 66s. PHILSON RUN isn’t a lost cause though the ground may be a shade too quick and I’m not that convinced about CORNISH SETT in the jumping department but good luck to anyone having a bet tomorrow.
If CLOUDY LANE wins, the bookies will have a terrible day but given the record of favs (four in the last thirty-odd years) the stats are, as always, in their favour which they aren’t for a race like the Derby for example.
It looks ominous in Zimbabwe - I had hoped that indirect US/South African efforts might persuade Mugabe to go quietly but it seems unlikely. Would that we could send the same threat of force against him as we did against Saddam but we’d better not go there.
Two solid Conservative holds in last night’s by-elections - the fact that both seats have been uncontested in the recent past says a lot. As anyone who actually knows anything about campaigning (as distinct from a number of the posters on here who seem to see politics more in terms of “my team’s better than yours”) will tell you, it’s very hard to win if you’re starting with nothing. The East Devon result is marginally more disappointing for the LDs oddly enough as it’s a seat that’s been contested before.
There are too many areas of the country where LD local campaigning never happens.
226 Could go either way - Zanu PF is split and for many it’s about how best to protect their ill gotten gains - if Morgan has agreed with Makoni some form of co-operation with parts of Zanu PF there is hope it won’t come to violence.
New Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll for Pennsylvania :
Clinton 49% .. Obama 38%
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a6_5poll.6343125apr04,0,5694650.story
247. a very good point well made which is why the Lib Dems won’t do to well in London elections as they don’t have the capacity to campaign all over. They are very effective at targeting resources in by elections but with an electorate of 7 million+ they just aren’t on the map.
247. There are too many areas of the country where LD local campaigning never happens
Blessed are such fair pastures…
My grand national tip : “IDLE TALK” e/w at 66/1..
Re: 250 - Indeed, and that’s why Paddick or any other LD candidate is going to struggle in the future.
251 - I take it you’re not keen on the LDs, Harry ?
247. it’s called targetting apparently, although in the end it means when they eventually do have a go at trying to take them they get nowhere.
Re: 254 - Perhaps you ought to say that to the Conservatives in Solihull who presumably had a similar view of targetting ?
245 Got your email, Morus. Fine by me.
Afraid I cannot be so positive about Snowy Morning.
256 - Blast! Have to make the money back betting on Heineken Cup rugby instead…no risk there.
256 - took your Voy Por Ustedes e/w tip from Cheltenham and applied it today, PtP
258 LOL! Yes, I was on VPU too, Aaron. A little bird told me Master Minded is strictly a 2 miler. The bird was right!
221. No it isn’t. Best bet is “Hung Parliament” at over 2.6. Anything from Labour just losing its majority to a Conservative government just short of one would pay out.
In other words - Labour seats from 260-325 you win. Conservative seats from oooh 220-325 you win.
Very good bet.
On the Grand National - I’m tempted to back FUNDAMENTALIST - just because of the name
256. Peter - your tips for the national?
260 Casino - when the racing is finished today, I’m going to scribble a GN review.
260. Statistically yes - in reality you are at risk from a Con majority.
Casino Royale [193]. Ah but when I saw the first Casino Royale I was with the first of my 30 (not that I am anywhere near that yet). I think we had just got back together again 1967(?).
261. Thanks Peter! In the meantime, might you be able to quickly explain to me the difference on Betfair between the “to be placed” and “4m4f Hcap Chains” markets?
They have drastically different odds!!
Also, what is all this ‘Betfair Starting Price’ business?
Maybe I should stick to what I know…
262. Which is very unlikely… And I say that as a Conservative supporter.
It’s about value and it’s a value bet.
Zanu-PF say there will be a runoff with Mugabe
229- the Boris I took cocaine but it never got up my nose comment is as bad as Clinton’s puff but didn’t inhale.
Do you think it might be far fetched that Cameron may have piloted Boris to see how far the public can take a leading politician doing the white stuff? In my view Cameron may still perceive this as his achilles heel.
FWIW- if Obama can admit to the hokey cokey, now Bozza, old allegations about Dubya then it really probably isn’t an issue at all. It should all be legal in my opinion.
It would be great to nip round the off licence- a bit of pure Columbian to set the night off, best Afghan Brown pipe a little later, with a nice Dutch best skunk roll up to finish proceedings. Without giving all the money to criminals, probably very cheap to boot.
261. Sorry, what is a GN review?
265. I would say its evens. The credit bubble is going to pop all over NuLab in the next 12 months - it will dominate over all other political issues. Even Portillo was predicting the end of Brown last night.
267, The curse of GQ strikes again..
Boris Johnson gave to GQ (quoted in The Independent of 4th June 2007): “Speaking to former Daily Mirror editor Piers Morgan in GQ magazine, Mr Johnson,42, said of the cocaine episode: “I tried it at university and I remember it vividly. It achieved no pharmacological psychotropic or any other effect on me whatsoever.”"
I think Boris got sold a lemon
268 Grand NAtional? I’ve drawn Slim Pickings
IMF being reported in the Standard as saying that house prices in UK are 30pct overvalued.
That could hurt…..
269- I think a con majority is inevitable with Brown at the helm, and now very likely even (with credit crunch) if Labour change leader, though they may have a fighting chance. There is no value in a hung Parliament.
If Brown stays Cameron and Osborne would have to be caught in an underground dungeon with 5 hookers masquerading as Nazi commandants for 5 hours filmed by the News of the World to lose. Even then I would still give the Tories a better chance. Such events just do not happen though!
And I am saying all this as a Labour supporter.
Do you remember those (even Tories and me) not giving Bozza much hope
271 That’s a warm icket, Augustus. Keep it in the safe.
…ticket even.
268 Patience, Casino…
273 - The reminds me of something I heard recently along the lines of if you bought your house more than three years ago, you should be all right but less than that and you could be in for rough time. As I cannot remember where I heard or read this though, feel free to discount it as the ramblings of fool.
269. End of Brown NOT = Tory Majority +130 seats in one election from such a low base?! Happy to take your money on Betfair! And I will lay off at some point too…
271. Ah!!
I thought maybe it was a magazine… or something!!
278-No you are right.Even when the Labour heartlands are being flooded by reposessions GB will still be saying how the economy is on course and stability is the key.
It will not the men in grey suits that are needed to get rid of him but the men in white coats.
I suppose he could try and do a Mugabe and refuse to leave Downing St even when he has lost the election…
I dont know how long this has been out but it is the revelation of who spent what By MPs.
Link is from the BBC website
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7329749.stm
Tony Blair had his TV licence paid by Taxpayers.
Why?
what sort of a house has Cameron got?
Conservative leader David Cameron claimed the most in mortgage interest payments - £21,293 - but he did not claim for other items such as council tax, food, cleaning or repairs, the figures show
New thread - Sean Fear - “Where London will be Won & Lost” - plus 2004 Mayor results spreadsheets.
Thanks
Double Carpet
279. Are you an idiot?
I’m a CONSERVATIVE activist.
I’ve simply done the seat-by-seat analysis and I think the price for a Conservative Majority is way too high.
283-yes to your first question
No it is not to your second
283-yes to your first question
No it is not to your second