The MORI detail: Has Ken benefited from the rounding?
April 9th, 2008
The data shows that there were only four votes in it
The full detail from today’s MORI London poll is just out and the top-line split is much tighter than the 51%-49% Ken-Boris headline figures that have been reported.
Look at the table above and you will see how close it is. Taking those “certain to vote” - the pollster’s standard filter, of first and qualifying second preferences and you find 207 for Ken against 203 for Boris.
This works out at 49.51% for Boris and 50.48% for Ken. If the former had been rounded up and the latter had been rounded down it would have been 50-50.
This is almost exactly in line with last week’s ICM survey for the Guardian.
Other points to note from the details is that Boris has a good margin amongst white voters but that Ken scores very well with the BMEs where the split is 73% to 27%. The latter figures are based on all responses not just those saying they are certain to vote.
Overall of the 1,000 people interviewed 48% said they would certainly be voting - a proportion which is considerably higher than the 35-36% turnout that we have seen in the previous two mayoral elections.
In the betting Ken’s price has tightened 6/4 while Boris has moved out to 0.6/1.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Very poor from MORI to not round correctly and difficult to avoid the conclusion that this was in part due to a desire to please their client.
Mike, aside from your stated comments about trading around these polls - what is your view on who will win and by how much?
As a poll specialist why do YOU think Yougov’s results are so different to the others?
Cheers,
PC
There is enough time for big movements before polling day. The Newsnight debate didn’t see Paddick make a big breakthrough or Livingstone smother Boris. But Boris’s failure to say how much his bus policies will cost may turn out to damage him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRRYDVaXdaA
1 - Yes as any fule know 50.48 cannot become 51. Also why do pollsters round to whole percentages, surely changing to 1dp would make more sense?
Or, at least, to manipulate the data to make it appear more newsworthy.
Either way, it doesn’t look terribly professional.
The reason that MORI have apparently rounded wrongly is almost certainly - assuming MORI can cope wioth basic maths which I’m pretty certain they can - because the 203 and 207 are themselves rounded.
The figures aren’t raw people, they are weighted people - so they were probably something like 202.7 and 207.3.
Other points to note from the details is that Boris has a good margin amongst white voters but that Ken scores very well with the BMEs where the split is 73% to 27%. The latter figures are based on all responses not just those saying they are certain to vote.
Are white people more likely to vote in London than other ethnic groups?
Clearly if figures have been rounded in this way it is deliberate false poll reporting by MORI
re 2. Who will win? This is getting harder and I have had it suggested to me from a good source that recent private polling has pointed to a strengthening of Ken’s position.
That said in terms of likelihood to vote Boris’s support is marginally more soundly based than Ken’s. The oldies go very much for the Tory and they turnout at a level that other age-groups do not reach.
At the moment I still think that Boris will win but I have almost no money rising on it at the moment.
5 - Good point, thank you Anthony. As a weighted person myself I understand.
Thanks Mike, and your view on the divergence of Yougov and ICM/Iposos-Mori ?
re 5. Good point. I think it is wrong to assume any bad faith on the part of anybody. All we can say is that it is very close.
5 - “The figures aren’t raw people, they are weighted people” - deserves framing as the ultimate pb.com comment.
Perfectly true, of course.
On the last thread, noticed the reference to Eric Heffer being pro-Militant. That wasn’t my recoolection, so I looked it up, and found this interview, which has an interesting period feel for those who like that sort of thing:
http://www.atholbooks.org/timecapsule/articles/heffer2.html
Going canvassing tonight in a ‘hotbed’ of Libdemmery. Will be interesting to see if they are more like Mark or Mike, when it comes to Brown.
re 10 Let’s see next week’s YouGov poll.
The figures don’t add-up to me (unless I’m missing something.) They say total voting is 409, yet have Ken+Boris = 410…
???
Even if it’s based on weighted total, there seems to be a vote missing somewhere…
14. Mike, if you think Yougov will show a sharp Johnson decline, how about a small wager on Johnson’s lead being in the middle of the last two Mori/yougov polls? Say 6% or over, I win £30, under 6%, you £30 (or anybody else!)
9: My wife acccuses me of being an increasingly weighted person ;(
15 - total could be 409.4, with Boris 202.6 and Ken 206.8; that would explain your anomaly as well as the headline rounding anomaly.
15. For example:
202.5 + 206.9 = 409.4
203 + 207 = 409
49.46% vs 50.54%
49% vs 51%
There is some handicup betting options on Betfair Pensylvania primary market:
Pennsylvania Primary
Obama +12.5 Percent O
Obama +2.5 Percent O
Obama +7.5 Percent O
Winner O
Perhaps can use these figures
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Proper Bookies will go 7/4 Ken to win
12. He must be turning in his grave at the “me too-ism” Labour have been guilty of in the last 11 years or so. Do you not feel guilty on turning your back on your Socialist ideals?
Obviously i don’t share your socialist views but do you not think the Labour party has become a shadow of it’s former self?
Tell me something: Why do Labour insist on such massive immigration everytime they have a spell in power?
Anyone know/guess when the next Mayoral poll is out?
15 the difference is down to rounding up/down the various figures, as Anthony Wells pointed above the number of individuals are in fact nominal weighted voters but seeing as 0.7 of a person doesnt make much sense they round up/down to the nearest whole voter but this does mean that the total might not quite match.
One interesting point is Ken’s overwhelming lead amongst non white voters. Ken has over the years put great effort into supporting various minority communities often providing the Evening Standard et al with headlines but if he wins this time it will be a pay back for that effort.
re 21
No such place as Humberside - abolished in 1996.
Was the polling carried out evenly across the London Boroughs.
I would like to see the split between inner and outer London
Why do Labour insist on such massive immigration everytime they have a spell in power?
To prove they are not racist
27.
Off Topic
but worth reading for the last part.
Mosley ‘orgy’ injunction refused
A video showing F1 boss Max Mosley with five prostitutes can be shown on the News of the World website after the High Court refused an injunction.
Mr Justice Eady said an order would make “little practical difference”.
The newspaper claimed Mr Mosley took part in a “Nazi-style orgy in a torture dungeon”. Mosley has strongly denied his actions had any Nazi connotations.
He has faced pressure to resign as president of the International Automobile Federation (FIA).
The judge said that the footage was “very brief, containing shots of Mr Mosley taking part in sexual activities with five prostitutes, and it also covers the tea break”.
Your point is well made Mike about the BME split but the answer is in the description of Minority.
If more of the majority group than minority groups go out to vote then Ken is in trouble.
Agree with James at 3 - isn’t it time we had polls to one decimal place?
Thanks Anthony, you’ve made my point fairly succinctly. The weighted numbers of respondents as well as the percentages are rounded: it is not exactly 207 and 203, and this is why the percentages round to 51:49. But it is important to note that either 51:49 or 50:50 means “too close to call”; it is not a statistically significant lead.
As we say in our technical note (published along with the figures here http://www.ipsos-mori.com/content/research-archive/london-mayoral-election-polling-april-2008.ashx): where results do not sum to 100, this is due to computer rounding. We are certainly not biasing the data by reporting it as we do; the reason we put the data tabulations up on the website is so that people can see the weighted and unweighted figures for themselves.
I would also point out that I agree with Mike that the ‘certain to vote’ figure (of 48%) is improbably high. This figure is the proportion of people who tell us they are ‘absolutely certain to vote’, however we of course cannot hold them to this!
Cheers,
Julia Clark
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
I actually think 48% “certain to vote” indicates that turn-out this time will actually fall. It costs nothing to tell a pollster that you are certain to vote, and makes you look more grown-up, even if you have no real intention of doing so. It would be interesting to have the comparable figure from a 2004 poll, if available - although of course there were also Euro-elections then.
Just flicking through the thread before last my vote for ‘anoraks anorak’ goes to SeanT. When others might have been imagining all sorts of things with their £40 lap-dancer Sean was doing a canvas for Boris.
And I thought he was just your run-of-the-mill right-wing hedonost.
29. So what? Is the man not allowed to indulge in strange fantasies? It’s a bit crass to go after the man just because of who his father happened to be. How do we not know that other F1 individuals do not partake in similar “unusual” roleplay situations? As they say don’t knock it until you have tried it!
33 48% certain to vote may be too high but it is rather more realistic than Yougov’s near 80% .
12 Nick re Eric Heffer
Fair enough, Nick, although I was careful to say that he supported the Liverpool councillors as opposed to being a member himself. He did storm out of the Brighton conference with Derek Hatton et al during Kinnock’s speech about Liverpool City Council in 1985 and was strongly opposed to expelling Militant from the party.
33 Many thanks Julia. Please continue to come on here, as it is very informative and appreciated by those of us who read the small print in polls
36. I bet nobody here can claim they haven’t indulged in disgusting sexual activities.
36. How odd to find myself agreeing with Martin Day.
It’s apt that the phrase the “sins of the father are the sins of the son” was used to justify persecution of the jews. Let’s not find ourselves making the same mistake.
On a less serious note, apparently when McLaren and BMW complained at Mosely about his background, he replied along the lines of “Your record in the war was nothing to brag about either.”
Martin,
I have no problem with the selling of consenting adult sex and beatings, I was reffering to the tea break!
I’m off for a brew and good kicking!
I still think Kinnock was a “lunetic”, the way he behaved was outragous. Funnily enough he would have made a good mayor of London due to his exuberant personality but leader of the Labour party no way! In sheffield he just got over excited - I would love to see him after 10 pints! Very funny i should imagine.
I am pretty sure if Kinnock had not been leader in 1992 - Labour would have probably won. Kinnock helped the tories to victory in 1992 with the help of the Sun newspaper. So lets hope Gordon wheeles him out in 2010 and maybe Kinnock will be caught saying another “dust” (October 2007) comment which helped galvinise alot of Tories back to their senses.
More debt figures for NuLabour supporters to mull over
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th…r/2079rank.html
1 World $ 54,310,000,000,000 2004 est.
2 United States $ 12,250,000,000,000 30 June 2007
3 United Kingdom $ 10,450,000,000,000 30 June 2007
4 Germany $ 4,489,000,000,000 30 June 2007
5 France $ 4,396,000,000,000 30 June 2007
6 Italy $ 2,345,000,000,000 30 June 2007
7 Netherlands $ 2,277,000,000,000 30 June 2007
8 Spain $ 2,047,000,000,000 30 June 2007 est.
9 Ireland $ 1,841,000,000,000 30 June 2007
10 Japan $ 1,492,000,000,000 30 June 2007
This represents the total debt (public and private) owed to foreign residents.
Shocking - nearly 2.5 times greater than France or Germany - and only 15% lower than the US !!
Gordon’s legacy - an ocean of debt (and I bet it does not include PFI and the Northern Rock liabilities)
As it is a bright,sunny day I’ll go mad and offer 2/1 Ken to be Mayor of London !
33 - Thanks Julia. Do you think that decimal-point polling is the obvious next step for pollsters, or will we have to deal in whole numbers for the foreseeable future?
41. & 42. At least it gives somebody a job(roleplaying) …………
41. “36. How odd to find myself agreeing with Martin Day”
Indeed. Nothing quite like being whipped in the nude by someone dressed as a Nazi.
47. Have yopu never played doctors & nurses or teacher and pupil?
[40] They never disgusted me at the time…
“….after the Newsnight debate I closed almost all my Boris positions down on IG, SI, Spreadfair and Betfair - at a profit. I did not find Boris convincing whereas I thought that Ken did well.”
I couldn’t agree more - Boris seemed hopelessly ill-prepared and just couldn’t cope with Paxo’s grilling on the costing of his proposals for replacement Routemaster buses - frankly it was embarrassing.
I’m following you Mike, I’m out. Talk about clutching defeat from the jaws of victory.
by Peter from Putney April 9th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
18/19. OK, thanks, sounds like the Alabama Paradox in reverse…
What gets my goat a bit though, is the forced “majority” produced by ignoring the non-transferable votes. In reality, the final margin (after transfers, and based on all voters who participated) should be about 46:45, not 51:49….
A thread descends into a lurid discussion of sex and SeanT is nowhere to be seen, this place is nothing if not surprising!
4. 32. But going to 1dp introduces ‘false precision’ if the sample is <1000.
During the Lib Dem leadership Huhne released a sub-section of a poll (showing him to be doing well) but because of ‘false precision’ it was possible to deduce the size of the sample.
The various figures quoted, and the differences between them, were never smaller than 0.8%, 1.5%, 2.3% etc. - a bit of trial and error and I matched the results to a sample of about 130, IIRC.
Mike said he was not impressed by Johnsons performance on the previous thread. I must say i was not impressed by Livingstone and his comments on political donations. I think this leaves a great unawnsered question and i laughed when Livingstone said that all donations to the Labour party were above board!
(Given last years donergate round 2). Mind you the LD’s could hardly bait the Labour party on this issue due to the Brown donation of £2.6 million.
Do you think Dave is practicing here for the years ahead?
The Tory leader, David Cameron, distanced himself from an amnesty, saying: “Boris is his own man. He is standing on his own platform and he dictates his own policies.”
It’ll probably become a mantra!!
I bet Tom Knox’s N*zi P*rn Dunge*n is a thing of magnificent beauty, for one thing.
44. How can the world have a debt to foreign residents? Extra-terrestrial aliens?
Presumably these figures do not take into account debts owed the other way.
BTW, really enjoyed the debate last night. Would be great to see more US style televised debates in British politics. It’s got everyone talking as well, personally I thought Ken won easily.
44: Yup, totally irresponsible. Not like we’ve had a recession or anything, yet they’ve been racking up the debt like some 70s African dictator.
44. we are becoming a major global financial centre to rival the US, way ahead of backwaters like France.
I don’t think this is as party-political as you make out though, however much successive chancellors have tried to take credit for the good aspects.
57 - It is probably an addition of the national figures, although it still makes little sense as some of it would cancel out.
I thought Ken won easily.
Actually of the three candidates i thought Paddick was the best as he had the serious - no nonsense side. I would still vote for Boris though as he is easily the most charasmatic of the three. I think Boris did enough to survive and Boris made no gaffe. The route master detail that some of the above posters refer to misses the point. The Route master plan is popluar, the current plan of Livingstones is unpopular. Boris said the plan would cost no more than Livingtones. Most people would not have a problem with that.
58. I agree, Brown should have a debate with Cameron at the next General Election.
But among over-55s, who are more likely to turn out on polling day, the Tory candidate led 46 per cent to 39 per cent.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23476267-details/New+poll+puts+Ken+and+Boris+neck-and-neck/article.do
62. I don’t think Brown’d be up for it.
Of course the TV channels could cut out the middle men, not invite any of the three party leaders, and just have Blair talking to himself.
44 Re: Nations’ debt figures - I just wonder how accurate these are and whether apples are being compared with apples.
If the UK’s figures are bad, the Irish Republic’s are a horror story - with 6.6% of the UK’s population, they have 17.6% of our debt.
[4] - With a “margin of error” of +/-2% or so due to sample size alone, let alone all the other sampling issues there are and psychological factors, it would be extremely misleading for opinion polls to report 1dp.
Indeed, from a statistical point of view, the opinion poll firms might find it hard to justify more than the one significant figure, reducing most of the recent polls to Con 40%, Lab 30%, LD 20% and Boris 60% (or 50%), Ken 40% (or 50%). Of course, the flip from Boris:Ken 60:40 to 50:50 you would get justifies the use of reporting two significant figures (ie whole percentage points) in this case.
It might help people’s understanding of the polls if they tried to mentally partition them into counting in 3s or 4s at most, as movements below that level can be just sampling noise.
This is one reason why I disagree with Mike’s opposition to using an average of all the polls. Doing so at least averages out the sampling noise, which means you can probably get a grasp of shifts in opinion more quickly than if you rely on a running average of polls from the same firm. Of course, you can make up for that with a keen sense of political intuition, which is largely what Mike has used to be successful thus far.
64. Blair talking to himself?
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/londonmayor/2008/04/livingstone-doe
.html
Very interesting article on Con Home. It will affect the polling like the Jasper affair.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/londonmayor/2008/04/livingstone-doe.html
Brown v Cameron? It’d be like watching Paxman v a 9 year old girl. No contest.
55 - I hope so too. I get sick to death of parties imposing collective responsibility on people who should be outside its scope. What is the point of having devolved Government if the devolved Government can only hold the views of its party leadership?
Much discussion here about rounding to one decimal place, etc. For God’s sake, two weeks ago Boris was 12% ahead - he’s just chucked it all away (and seemingly my £25 to Henry G!).
68. & 69. That was my point up the page - Livingstone was laughable. But as i said before - the wider public just don’t watch programs like newsnight in sufficient numbers to make any differences at all. It was a flash in the pan event and if anyone benifited from it, Paddick was the one. Paddick will not win and like all LD votes it will be a wasted vote.
72 - Two days ago he was 13% ahead, but that was a different pollster with different methodology as I suspect is the figure you are quoting.
72 You’re comparing apples and oranges.
74 James, the point I was trying to make is that Boris’ recent and substantial lead has now gone, as confirmed by two major polling organisations. Let’s not argue too much about methodologies or decimal points, it’s gone!
66. Yes, the absolute error of the mean of the polls will always be lower than the mean absolute error of the polls…
O/T
I am “hooked on the USA elections and this from Intrade may be useful
Intrade traders were betting Clinton would win the contest in Pennsylvania on April 22, giving her a 66.1 percent chance, versus 32.8 percent for Obama. They gave her a 79 percent chance of winning the West Virginia contest on May 13, versus 20.5 percent for Obama, and a 70 percent chance of winning in Kentucky on May 20, versus 30.5 percent for Obama.
Traders were betting Obama would win the Indiana contest on May 6. They gave him a 58 percent chance, versus 45 percent for Clinton. Traders gave him an 88 percent chance of winning the May 20 Oregon contest, versus 12 percent for Clinton, and an 82.5 percent chance of winning the June 3 Montana contest, versus 17.5 percent chance for Clinton.
75 So it’s possible to believe both a 2% deficit and a 13% lead, right - that’s OK then, I can relax.
46. ICM and MORI have only ever polled the once, so Boris never had a lead with them to lose.
Its only YouGov that have polled consistently and shown consisten Conservatice leads.
72) Can’t see the exact dates for latest Yougov vs ICM but I think they may actually overlap slightly in the collection periods? Doubtful one can make a case that Boris “lost his lead”, rather surveys are just different..
Excellent article on the Chinese olympics:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/08/opinion/edbowring.php
44. As usual Herbert your spurious link ‘doesn’t exist’!
44/65 - Those figures are for gross external debt (must be as the world figure is not zero) so it isn’t very meaningful. It reflects the relative significance of capital markets in the UK and US (and on a smaller scale places like Ireland) compared with other countries.
That isn’t to say that debt isn’t a real issue in the UK, just that those figures don’t demonstrate the point.
76 - Oh please, compare like with like.
76) Peter you’re becoming a little hysterical *throw glass of water over Peter*
78) The article is apparently written by someone who has just worked out what intrade prices mean - little use here.
If two polls, undertaken within days of each other, are capable of producing results 15% apart, then aren’t such an exercises a complete and utter waste of time and money?
83 - this should work, Roger:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2079rank.html
As I say at 84, though, Herbert has read them without really understanding what the numbers mean.
86 Sorry, I’ll calm down now!
87 Propbably only one of them is: but which one?
Interestingly I don’t think anyone else has picked up on the significance of the date. Today being 9th April which was the date of the 1992 General election.
44. Herbert. Infact our debt is apparently £608 billion. Which makes your figues about sixteen times too high!
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=277
I wouldn’t normally waste my time with one of your crackpot posts but the figures just looked ridiculous.
89 - Gosh, I want so much for Boris to win, but surely he MUST have known that the cost of the Routemaster plan would be raised by Paxman or his opponents. He really was so piss-poor in response…if there is to be a Question Time (BBC 1) hustings, he simply HAS to get his act together.
92. You’re misunderstanding the difference between public and private debt, Roger.
Herbert’s figures were private debt, the amount owed by British citizens to foreign citizens. Your figures are the amount owed by the British government.
92 - Nice try Roger but Herbert’s figures were for total aggregate debt not merely public sector on balance sheet debt.
78. “Traders were betting Obama would win the Indiana contest on May 6. They gave him a 58 percent chance, versus 45 percent for Clinton”
whatever happens, Ron, there’s no doubt that the candidates will be giving it literally 103% effort in Indiana.
gross debt figures are totally irrelevant. the only debt that matters is debt that can’t be repaid.
U.S. official confirms death from natural causes of senior al Qaeda official Abu Ubaida al-Masri.
87/90. The MOE on the lead is almost twice that on a particluar party’s share. So it’s quite possible both are accurate, but there has been a modest 2-3% swing to Livingstone over the past 4 weeks…
Boris could still be ahead. The MORI poll taken on its own still gives Boris about a 36% chance…
97 - True but with rising debt servicing costs that proportion is likely to increase.
93. I actually think Boris would find Question Time easier than Newsnight. QT is a more relaxed enviroment and its more politicans having a discussion with the audiance. If course there will be added pressure, but usually does OK on QT.
I don’t think theres anything more difficult in politics than having to go up against Paxman.
91 - I did notice it but thought better of mentioning it! It did just strike me today though that if the Parliament goes close to term, some voters next time will not have been born the last time the Conservatives won a General Election.
94/95 - True but equally Herbert is misunderstanding the difference between net and gross debt and the significance of the distinction. It is also apples and pears. Borrowing to invest is not the same as going into debt to buy shoes. I have a reasonably large mortgage (not massive) but there is nothing reckless about it even if house prices fall somewhat. Indeed, it might be more prudent than renting (although it might not - depends on circumstances).
93. I actually think Boris would find Question Time easier than Newsnight. QT is a more relaxed enviroment and its more politicans having a discussion with the audiance. Of course there will be added pressure, but usually Boris Johnson does OK on QT.
I don’t think theres anything more difficult in politics than having to go up against Paxman.
I think the key thing to remember here is that we *all* over-react to polls, whether they are showing Boris leads, or Ken leads.
We follow the minutia. We live and breathe for the slightest movement either way. Look at Mike and Peters reaction to the debate. Boris has been sh1t at debates since time immemorial..
That said, two of the most accurate and successful tipsters on this site - Mike Smithson and Peter the Punter - both say it will be very close and are not risking huge amounts.
I think they are wise.
But, I have to agree with Sean Fear. Boris will still do it…
Differential turnout, Grassroots activists and Labour fatigue are all working v.strongly against Ken.
yes, and the servicing costs are presently rising due mainly to problems in the US housing and financial sectors.
the party political point seems pretty groundless, as private debt is (oir should be) largely the responsibility of the individual.
even on public debt i’m not aware of major policy differences between the major parties.
102. Added to that Herbert is not looking at debt per capita, or debt as proportion of GDP. He also fails to look at proprtion of debt as proportion of household wealth, as has been pointed out.
So his figures without context are meaningless. He also has the underlying assumption that debt is always bad, which it’s not.
I did post this a link to this article from Benedict Brogan a few threads back. More Boris merchandise… This little nugget was tucked away at the end, “Camp Boris worries about reports of a thumping poll lead. Their private polling is not so positive, and they don’t want potential supporters to think it’s in the bag. The race is much tighter than people realise.”
Are the they using Populus?
One question about voter turnout, who will benefit the most from a does a neck and neck headline?
This thread is a bit tenuous (we’re debating what *one* virtual person thinks), but as a Ken supporter I’d think there’s still some work to do - allowing for turnout issues, I should think Boris is still a few % ahead. But with three weeks to go that’s not a comfortable margin.
BTW, doesn’t post 36 refer to post 35? Certainly seanT is entitled to indulge in strange fantasies, such as Boris being a good Mayor.
107.Apologies for poor wording in this post, typing too fast and then not proof reading.
101 - Indeed if Parliament goes to term then a sizeable number of first time voters won’t have any proper memory of a non-Labour government.
107. Its a job to put too much credence in that, because ALL leading politicans say that during elections. I remember even in 1997 Labour deliberatly played down their chances so as to get their vote out and not appear arrogant/complacent about victory.
[56] Look, if I want five prozzies dressed as Nazis whipping me in a dungeon while screaming in German, I can “hang” out quite close to the House of Commons.
If, on the other hand -as I prefer- I want to be goosed by fifteen women dressed as Robert Robinson and/or the late Reginald Bosanquet while whistling Col. Bogey, I go to the late Madam Cyn.
On the other hand you can quickly get a bit jaded with that, so then I like to find a sweetly innocent traffic warden and get her to dress as Mollie Sugden and…
Ah… said too much again… Never mind, please *do* buy my lovely book… “Millions of Perverts are waiting to meet you behind the hot water pipes in Kings Cross Station”
Crisis, what crisis.
Lies, Darling lies and statistics
91. Fond memories..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLwI68k-RcU&feature=related
I remember shouting at the screen. “It’s a Tory majority, you idiots!”
If they’d simply based their sums on the first result, Sunderland South, they would have been a lot closer in predicting the final outcome..
[93] The fact is though- this is Boris with his minders, what would be be like without them?
113. twisting statistics to breaking point until they agree with you that someone else is twisting statistics to breaking point.
is there a word for that?
108 - a very dangerous final line, if there is any seriousness behind your joke. Assuming that your opponent is going to screw up is losing politics.
114. It was certainly a dramatic night wasn’t it? I really hope the next election is just as tight.
They always pay more attention to Sunderland South at general election now, don’t they?
114 - Yes I remember as a schoolboy getting up at 3:30am to watch some of the coverage of it. I vaguely remember David Amess’ declaration and CCO with the JM is PM posters.
111 - Although, of course, Labour, even then, were genuinely shaky after the four beatings they had taken. They were psychologically inured against complacency.
117: no, my jokes are well-telegraphed and that was one of them. I wouldn’t be serious about a seanT fantasy…(and that’s a joke too).
114. Ah yes, 1992. The election took place during my brief time as a Lib Dem (a result of teenage rebellion and my A level economics teacher being the Lib Dem’s candidate). I remember the dashed hopes of a hung parliament! I have yet to support the winning side at a general election, as I’d joined the Conservatives by 1997.
Surely the governments promises to reduce house price inflation are beginning to bear fruit. Labours fall in the polls may be significantly due to high house prices, which many blame on high immigration.
Raise interest and we should see ‘rip-off Britain house prices’ go back to normal levels (3 time earnings) rather then currently the most overvalued in the world (5.5 times earning).
Interest rates need to rise to get inflation under control. Although hyper house price inflation is being unwound, inflation for everything else is soaring.
The BOE is far in breach of the 2% inflation limit using accurate inflation measures. E.g. RPI is at 4.5%, while CE says inflation is at 6.1% and rising. The government’s CPI figure is a joke. One recent analyst reports it excludes 60% of goods and services - which combined with ‘hedonic pricing’ produces a highly misleading under-reporting of inflation.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/31/magazines/fortune/spiers_cpi.fortune/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/09/ccom109.xml
Just been looking at the uncollected council tax figures.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7339330.stm
Trouble is there appears to be no link between the published figures and the proportion of unpaid council tax relative to the tax base.
Which councils are actually making sure that a high percentage of council tax is collected? In other words making sure that there are few free riders abusing the system.
122 - Try as I might - and I do - I can’t see you as a LibDem even during a Hersdonian rebellion-phase. A Trot…oh yes….
118. At each of the past 4 elections, Sunderland South has got the national swing to within +/-1%.
Zim: Zambia, current chairman, has called a meeting of SADC to discuss crisis. 14 more farms seized today- and MDC report -unconfirmed - “massive violence” against them across the country. Zanu-PF strategy seems to be recount and then, when that proves impossible, to re-run, rather than to go to a second round on the current numbers. Tsvangirai may not be allowed back into country if he tries to return. Biggest question in Harare- why won’t Thabo Mbeki say anything?
126. Because he doesn’t think Mugabe is doing anything wrong.
A new PPP poll for Pennsylvania :
Clinton 46% .. Obama 43%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_040908.pdf
“Two men pursuing a lawsuit in a court in Hawaii think a giant particle accelerator that will begin smashing protons together outside Geneva this summer might produce a black hole that will spell the end of the Earth - and maybe the universe.
Scientists say that is very unlikely - though they have done some checking just to make sure.”
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/29/europe/physics.php
Surely they should take out an all risks insurance policy.
As the Tom Lehrer song has it “Lloyds of London will be loaded when they go”
129 I started that thinking “How funny!” and got more and more concerned the more I read.
Morus [45]: I’m afraid you’ll certainly be dealing in whole numbers for the foreseeable future for Ipsos MORI polls; Bob Worcester won’t like to read this talk of decimal places! In seriousness, we absolutely do not publish the decimal places on polls for the simple reason that they are misleading. To loosely quote Bob, decimal places in polling offer a “spurious impression of accuracy.” The margins of error on polls are such that reporting to a decimal place makes them appear to be ‘more accurate’ (or exact) than they actually are.
I should also note that the way in which we report our data does try to take into account the possibility of people misunderstanding what we’re saying; therefore the more precise the figures appear to be, the more this might mislead people to assume that polls offer more accuracy than any sample survey possibly can!
In fact, I’d almost argue that we should move in the opposite direction and stop reporting whole numbers so that in today’s poll we could simply have said that Ken Livingstone has between 47% and 55%, and Boris Johnson between 45% and 53%!
Timothy [66]: Thank you for making my point! And much more succinctly, and earlier, than I did
GIN [80]: Ipsos MORI conducted a mayoral election poll this past February; the data showed almost identical findings to today’s poll: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/content/polls-08/the-london-mayor-election.ashx
Cheers,
Julia Clark
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
[125] RodCrosby wrote 118. At each of the past 4 elections, Sunderland South has got the national swing to within +/-1%.
Yup, the last four times I tossed a coin it came down heads, so it must be tails next time, right?
Can we start a campaign to get pollsters to move away from the spurious accuracy implied by percentages and move to fractions - I suggest 32nds. This would allow for the 3% margin of error.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 44% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 41% .. Obama 51%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106369/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-Clinton-Points.aspx
[129] I thought American newspapers believed in fact-checking. There’s no such thing as “gold ions” - gold only exists at the level of atoms. Bits of a gold atom aren’t bits of gold.
134 - “New opinion poll gives Tories 5/32 lead over Labour. LDs languishing on only 3/16!” Yep, it appeals to the mathematician in me. But can journalists add fractions?
133. ? Not what I was saying at all. Just remarking on it…
136. A charged gold nucleus would be a gold ion.
134 - Bring it on!
I suspect that myself and Guido would be perfectly comfortable with 32nds, but others might not be…
(US Bonds are traded in 32nds - which I deal with on a reasonably frequent basis, and I know Guido used to although a while back. Of course occassionally you need an extra level of accuracy, so you sometimes have 31 and and half 32nds (actually 63 64ths, but never called that of course!)
136. I thought it was determined by the structure of the nucleus, which still exists in positive ions.
141. And in negative ions, thinking about it.
132 - The danger of people confusing accuracy and precision!
What is needed are polls that have an MoE of just 0.3% instead of 3%, so that you could go to decimal places with the same degree of confidence in the relationship between precision and accuracy as is currently enjoyed by whole-number results. Though unless you start polling samples of hundreds of thousands of voters, I guess I should probably give up on that dream!
143 - And I should re-iterate my thanks for coming onto the site to answer our questions.
132. I disgree, somewhat. I don’t believe there is ever such a thing as “spurious accuracy”, although I can understand why you do it. Until the mid-nineties, some polls used to be rounded to the nearest half-percent…
145 - I think there is spurious accuracy as an issue. Imagine the daftness of “He ran the 100m in 9.65 seconds, give or take half a second.”
128 - The last PPP poll had an Obama lead of 2% which was well out of line with other pollsters - this seems more in line and realistic. Most have single figures Clinton leads now with Survey USA out on a limb with a big Clinton lead (18%). Single figures is simply insufficient to give Clinton back momentum.
North Carolina in early May will deliver a big Obama win and Indiana will be tight. If Pennsylvania is close and Indiana goes for Obama (NC looks to be in the bag) it will be ever harder for Hillary to go on. By coincidence, I will be in the US at this time and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
132, 144. Yes. Thanks for coming to answer questions directly. One of the best aspects of the site is the input from those involved professionally in politics, betting and polling.
My fake thriller writing persona Tom Knox has asked me to point out that the poster posting at 112 is not the real fake Tom Knox but a fake fake Tom Knox, posing as me pretending to be posting as fake poster Tom Knox.
I hope that’s clear.
This afternoon I have been mainly writing about polygamy, hence my absence from the site. The results should be online in a day or two.
An atom of gold stripped of one or more of its orbiting electrons is an ion with a positive charge. If you strip the gold atom of all its electrons you have a gold nucleus.
Smashing gold nuclei/ions together is good for investigating quantum chromo-dynamics (QCD); the theory of how atmoic nuclei, protons, neutrons and quarks behave.
http://cerncourier.com/cws/article/cern/30584
I’ve now closed down all my positions on Boris on the spreadmarkets and drastically reduced my exposure on Betfair - irritatingly, at a loss.
I am *VERY ANNOYED* about this, because no-one can access betting sites at work and MORI published their poll mid-morning, meaning I couldn’t react.
Publish polls IN THE EVENING like everyone else - you cost people serious money.
Idiots.
143 - but then there is a danger of confusing the statistical concept of “margin of error” with methodological error. All MOE +/- 3% means is that PRESUMING THE METHODOLOGY IS CORRECT, there is 95% probability that the true figures in the population are within 3% of the figures given (more accurately within 3% for a figure of 50% and less for lower percentages). In other words, there is a 5% chance that the figures are more than 3% out simply because by random chance the polling organisation have happened to speak to more or less Ken/Bozza/Brian supporters. This is entirely unavoidable, coin-toss type, statistical error.
Sure, you could get a smaller MOE by interviewing more people. But is there any point? Methodology is key - why expend massive effort moving from 3% to 1% MOE if you would be better off spending resources improving methodology? I would rather trust a poll with a methodology I believe in and a 5% MOE than a mega-poll with 1% MOE but an unrealistic methodology.
Hillary has added another super-delegate in Jackie Speier after the latters win in the special election in the CA 12th :
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/9/115549/2845/550/492697
OT - [136] Gold ions do exist. They’re just gold atoms minus an electron or few.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold
http://www.purestcolloids.com/ionic-gold.php
etc
Ken now into 2.52 on Betfair. I may lay me stake bid at 3 this morning soon.
Amazing how one poll has Ptp and Casino almost knee jerkingly closing down positions and acting as though Bojo is doomed.
People on the doorstep still want rid of Ken and that is the main driver here.
Sell into Boris weakness on Betfair would be my advice.
149. Influenced by all the Cleggover business? Not that I’m saying Clegg has ever been anything buy monogamous.
Betfair is actually 2.52-2.82 on Ken with no liquidity.
Pretty wide price considering he is being talked up on this thread
Morus: I’d love to see larger sample sizes (and thus smaller margins of error) – if you can convince my clients to pay for sample sizes of 10,000 I will be in your debt!
And it is my pleasure – I very much enjoy the discussions on this site
RodCrosby: I believe the practice stopped when they realised how unnecessary (and even misleading) it was to include the half-percents!
As a pollster, I am a real stickler for accuracy in reporting, because otherwise it is impossible to assess validity, robustness, etc of a poll or data source (and therefore whether or not to believe it). I do feel that attributing accuracy to a figure where accuracy does not exist is blatantly misleading. I am certainly not arguing against accuracy; simply against the appearance of accuracy when it is in fact absent (or fuzzy at the very best).
Casino Royale: I’m not sure if that was directed at me, but we do not release the data ourselves in the first instance, we simply post the findings on our website once our client (in this case UNISON) has chosen to make the data public.
Cheers, and good night all!
Julia Clark
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
My dad is a member of UNISON, he’s slightly annoyed that part of his fees are going towards this poll. And no, he isn’t a dyed in the wool tory, more of a floating voter between them and the lib dems.
13 Nick
Eric was old Bevanite left. I was deputy leader of our Labour group on the council for a number of years. We were a pretty left-wing group and had three Militant ‘readers’ as they called themselves in strong positions. They didn’t often have a go at Benn because he represented, I guess, informed opinion of the anti-establishment groups in the party; as for Eric Heffer, Barbara Castle and those of the slightly softer persuasion, particularly Kinnock in his early days, Militant were vitriolic about them.
A note on ‘evil’ Dave Nellist. He was the Coventry MP who kept the average working wage for his living expenses and put the rest into local party ‘good causes.’ Sounds like a socialist; the same could not be said for Derek Hatton in Liverpool and Tony Beyga in Knowsley; they had a taste for the high life and spent richly even as their own workforces were being laid off. To me they always had far more in common with the hard right than the hard left - kind of Max Mosely types.
Malcolm
158. Julia - of course it wasn’t directed at you. Please don’t take it personally.
I am annoyed at anyone who decides to publish data during the middle of the working day. Sorry if I offended you.
I shall save my wrath for Unison!
155. Timmo.
I have closed down my spreadbetting positions *in anticipation* of a price movement. I am just cross I wasn’t able to do so immediately, because (UNISON it seems) decided to publish at 10am this morning.
I still think Boris Johnson will win. I have positioned myself on Betfair accordingly.
28
Somebody has to do the dirty jobs that the toffee-nosed think are below them and the sciving bug*ers that want to do s*d-all, and think that work is a joke.
No immigrants - no taxi-drivers, farm-workers, hotel workers, care assistants. You don’t want immigrants then either you clean your own office toilets or they don’t get cleaned. Ever need a nurse?
Malcolm
158. And since accuracy only increases in proportion to the square-root of the sample size, it’ll never happen. Ten times the usual normal size (and hence ten times the cost) will only lead to about 3 times the accuracy….
143 Any further news on May
161. No worries, you didn’t offend! Just a bit of insight into how the poll publication process works
164. Exactly!
Cheers,
Julia
OT - sort of…
Damilola Taylor’s mother sadly collapsed and died yesterday. This will reopen the crime and safety debate in London in the coming days as people remember the dreadful Damilola story.
A LOT of panic on this thread. Can everybody calm down?!!!
I put an additional £1500 on Boris at about 1.53 average last night - so I’m losing out on that (I have a 1.7 average on my original £2000 core position).
We have more than 3 weeks to go and by any poll, Boris has made a lot of progress in this election. I just can’t reconcile yougov being so far out. I’m sitting on my hands…
166-Very sad news.
Both parents always acted in a dignified and restrained manner after the dreadful events that took place in Peckham.
At 1,5 to 1 betting on Boris was simple at anything less than 0,75 to 1 I believe it is risky.
Watched Newsnight and while Boris could have done a little better I dont think it is going to change many minds. If you think Ken is dodgy then this will confirm it and likewise if you think Boris is untested the same.
The campaign of getting the vote out is going to be vital along with getting second preferences. On this point did anyone else notice Ken’s look when Brian Paddick refused to choose between Lab and Con.
On the poll it may be interesting to note that Ken’s lead is based entirely on the youth vote which is probably the most fickle and least likely to vote. This poll also shows Ken behind on the 35-54 group which other polls have not. I dont think this poll shows any big changes from other polls they just asked a different base of voters.
FULL WORDING OF THE MORI POLL QUESTION:
“In the next election for Mayor of London, the present Mayor, Ken Livingstone is standing for re-election as the Labour Party candidate. Boris Johnson is standing for the Conservatives, Brian Paddick is standing for the Liberal Democrats, Siân Berry is standing for the Green Party, and there will be other candidates too. In the election for Mayor, voters will have two votes, one for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice. If the election were held tomorrow, which candidate would be your first choice?”
I don’t know what the Yougov or ICM question was, but on the way this question has been phrased for UNISON, three things interests me.
(1) It is a very long question.
(2) It states Ken Livingstone is the present mayor, that he’s standing for re-election and that he’s the Labour Party candidate; right at the start. A lot of extra information.
(3) The Green Party candidate is named - why not UKIP and the BNP who have similar support?
On point (1) on anything “long” (especially on the telephone) I, like most human beings, tend to remember only the start of what I read/heard and the finish. In this case that would be “Ken = Present Mayor = re-election ” and “who is my first choice?”
**The length of the question and its ordering favours Ken**
On point (2) you are given EXTRA information about Ken. You are told he is the “present Mayor” and that he is “standing for reelection”.
No shit. But…
**”Ken” gets EXTRA information in the question**
I consider this prompting.
On point (3) why is Sian Berry specifically named?
**The naming of Sian Berry favours the Greens and, consequently, Ken Livingstone**
YouGov don’t do this. It might account for the difference between 5% and 1% that MORI and YouGov Green Party vote record respectively. It also could of depressed the aggregate BNP/UKIP votes, both of which (according to the MORI poll) are around the 0.5% mark - highly unlikely.
Now. How would the results have differed if MORI had phrased it thus;
“In the Next Election for Mayor of London, voters will have two votes. One for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice.
If the election were held tomorrow, who would you vote for as your first choice? Ken Livingstone, Boris Johnson, Brian Paddick, or another candidate?”
My guess is the wording of the question could have affected the results by 3-4% on first preferences and altered the distribution (slightly) on second preferences.
That could make the true position 52% Boris - 48% Ken, which is very different.
**UNISON clearly altered the wording of the question to suit their man**
I would take this poll with a pinch of salt.
163
That’s a good argument for changing the tax and benefits system.. starting with a lower rate of income tax.. say 10%.
Oops just abolished!
169. I also noticed Kens lead in the youth vote with MORI was *HUGE*
26% lead is it not??!!
How is this squared with the 10%+ lead that Yougov recorded for Boris in the under-35s in their poll?
Very fishy. Allll very fishy.
170) Casino - the best question is simply “who will you vote for for mayor of London” - all the names are presented, in the order in which they will appear on the ballot paper.
then
Who is you second choice.
I agree that all that guff at the start favours King Newt…
I noted today is the 16th anniversary of the 1992 election;at 11.23pm,I will turn white in horror as Basildon is held by David Amess
Did anyone else notice that the percentage of BME certain to vote is very low and that Mori makes no adjustment for this. It could well be that Ken’s lead is based on Mori asking a bunch of ethnic guys hanging out on the streets who have almost no intention of voting. I am not convinced on the methodology used.
Having never bet before, does anyone know if you can bet on this election at a regular high street bookmakers (outside London). What do you do, just walk up to the counter and say “I want to bet on X becoming mayor of London”?
I don’t plan on becoming a regular gambler, but I fancy a little flutter on this.
170.
:O
Well thats this poll taken aparty. Next please!
Good stuff Casino. I’m topping up!
As I predicted on a previous thread.
Can only help Gord’s ratings
PM not attending Olympics opening
Prime Minister Gordon Brown will not attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, Downing Street says.
However, he will be at the closing ceremony when the Olympic baton will be passed to London.
170 Those points (particularly about the Green candidate) sound very reasonable to me. I’d be interested to hear the views of Mike, or Anthony Wells.
178. ANOTHER U-Turn by Gordon Brown! If he’d come to that decision maybe he’d get some credit, now it just looks like he’s dithering… Again.
179 - I can see how mentioning Sian boosted her poll rating but not how that could have consequently helped Ken.
181) ‘cos it helped Ken among Green 2nd prefs.
re 170. interestingly in MORI’s poll for the Labour party in February the question was much simpler - it said:-
170 Those points are all meaningless without knowing what question was asked by YouGov or ICM. Do you have this info and can you post it?
183) Mike perhaps Ipsos-Mori could confirm for us whether they, or the client suggested the changed wording?
The Slate ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ twitches up a notch to 10% :
http://www.slate.com/id/2188627/
Political Capital and Casino Royale. It’s not just the Mori poll which has certainly thrown the contest outcome into question again, it’s also last night’s Newsnight debate. My initial impression was to be quite pleased with Boris’ performance as this would favour my betting positions but on reflection I was distinctly underwhelmed. He blustered a lot.
The argument has been that his apparent bumbling persona is all a bit of an act and underneath it all there is a shrewd capable politician on top of his brief. Well he certainly didn’t achieve that level of impression.
He was better than I feared but not as good as I hoped. OK not many will have watched but the press will have been watching and they will also attend all future related events. If they form the view that he is not up to the job, as this contest really gets going, then they will report that view and the electorate will be influenced accordingly.
I’m not the only one to have formed this view who has money at stake. Mike Smithson, PtP and PfP, all regular political punters, have reversed their positions since the debate.
Also Nick Palmer, admittedly not impartial, has referred to decidedly unimpressive performances by Boris that he has witnessed. There is certainly enough doubt now to call this contest wide open again.
re 170 as well. I am writing to MORI’s Julia Clark to ask why the question terms have been changed and whether she thinks it had an impact.
This reminds me of the form of questions used for the Ken-commissioned MORI survey on the £25 congestion charge plan
Leading questions????
170. Surely the way forward is to randomize the candidate naming order for each respondent? I’m guessing because there are 10 candidates this will be more expensive for the pollster and increase respondent-fatigue. It could also be argued that not mentioning Respect, BNP, etc. depresses their likely vote. Which might explain my scepticism at the high combined Lab+Con vote…
All in all, a voodoo poll….
Wow. Thanks guys.
Very impressed that more respectable posters on this site finally think I don’t talk out of my arse!!
Cheers lads
189) I thought that, but presumably the best format would mimic the ballot paper itself, which will be in alphabetical order - but certainly NOT Ken at the top, with a preamble.
187) PfP I believe reversed his position on the poll, not on the debate.
On the Green Party candidate question, it’s fairly confusing: Why (and it’s not just MORI, it’s cropped up elsewhere) single out the candidate from the party that came seventh last time? Numbers one, two and three, sure - makes sense. Numbers one, two, three … and seven - smacks of some political correctness (as four, five and six were UKIP, RESPECT and BNP)
Mike at 188 - Sir Humphrey Appleby would have been proud of that series of questions (remember the episode where he explained about polling?)
194. To solve your betting problems at work why don’t you get yourself a decent mobile with web access? Betfair lite works on many mobiles now and gives you access whenever you want. SI and IG also have software so you can trade on your mobile.
Solves a lot of problems.
Remember Johnson will come above Livingstone on the ballot paper.
Norris came underneath Ken.
So your eye will see Bojos name first.
Some votes could be gained because of this.
151 I am *VERY ANNOYED* about this, because no-one can access betting sites at work and MORI published their poll mid-morning, meaning I couldn’t react.
Casino - were you aware that you can always telephone instructions to Sporting and to IG and I believe to Betfair also.
re 188. Even better was the series of question in this 2005 Ken-commissioned ICM poll on Londoners attitude to the Olympic bid
186 - I dont see how or why people should remember that they prefer Ken to Boris when prompted that there is a Green candidate in the race…
197, 199 Snap!
199 - and I don’t think polling companies should pander to punters like us.
That biased leading question reminds me of old footage of a TV interview with Mr Eden.
“Prime Minister, you are an expert on both domestic and foreign matters. Which one would you like to talk about first?”
Gilligan really nails Ken today in the evening standard re secret donations from property developers
in 2004 - that Ken has recently many times said he knew nothing about - Gilligan has the evidence he did know
This time Gilligan is getting closer to Ken himself
maybe no one reads this stuff - but it is a banner headline and it will re inforce the Tory get Ken vote out
I have also cut my Boris position at a profit but will be going back in soon if these stories keep rolling - I think Gilligan has more - as if this was not bad enough
204 But wasn’t that interview actually a party political broadcast?
198. Why don’t they randomize the ballots?
What you mean Ken has been following the Labour Party policy of selling planning permission in return for donations?
corrupt to the core
207 - Why will they? Ballot papers need to be uniform no?
206 - Now you mention it, it may have been. Not sure.
207 - randomised would be a bugger to count. Lots of errors. Worse than hanging chads.
Is there any evidence that the order in which names appear on the ballot paper has any impact on the result?
210. Hardly think so. I’m sure the technology is straightforward. Barcoding, for example?
Perhaps MORI might look at the Yes Prime Minister episode again where the power of the question in opinion polls is demonstrated.
I used to use this as a training item as it is so spot on the problem of the client setting the question or even the boundaries of the question except in the most general way.
198 timmo
There was a story, and not apocryphal I believe, where the Tory Party [Conservative faction] was looking for a candidate to stand against a long-serving Labour councillor in a ward somewhere in South Wales. They came up with a guy whose name was identical to the Labour councillor and this was in the days before party names appeared on ballots.
The Labour councillor was elected with his usual 80% + majority and actually upped his vote. So don’t expect him with the unhair-style to garner many votes on the basis of where his name appears on the ballot paper. Britain’s council chambers are not overflowing with Angela Abacuses.
Malcolm
For the MORI staff room:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yhN1IDLQjo&feature=related
Very interesting discussion above about leading questions in polling: presumably the client (in this case Labour) agrees the question(s) to be asked.
There’s also the issue of the seemingly never-ending Easter holiday season for schools. Some schools are on holiday this week round here, which leads me to wonder if the polls won’t settle down until all the schools (and parents) are back. Perhaps those published towards the end of next week will be more reliable in this respect.
197. Mike - can you suggest such a mobile?
All the adverts I’ve seen about internet on phones seem to be mainly hype. I’ve never found one that works.
Besides, I can’t log-on locally to my company server, as it would still block the sites.
Your 192/200 posts are funny!!
199. Peter - it is difficult to call Sporting Index in an open-plan office when everyone can hear you in the middle of the working day. I normally have to discreetly go aside like a shameless smoker. Besides, it takes 3-4 minutes to place the bet with the trader, internet is much more discreet and only takes a few seconds.
And I wasn’t aware you could telephone bet with Betfair?
I like Mikes idea best, but I have no idea which phone is (a) fast enough (b) practical enough, or (c) cheap enough!!
214) This all has the potential of a great story if true.
Ken is clearly upset about yougov (reporting them) and polls showing him behind or tied so Ken uses a friendly surrogate to pay for and organise a poll on his behalf using member’s money and loads the questions to give a result favourable to his campaign…
217 Just go to Tesco, buy yourself a bog standard mobile for about £25, calls are 15p per minute. Typically a call to IG or Sporting will last about 40-60 seconds.
Just to summarise, I do think this race *IS* much closer than YouGov suggest, but I’m betting (haha) that the Newsnight performance has made far more of an impact on *us* than it has on the voters.
How widely has it been reported today in the news?
Not on Radio 4, Not on Radio 2, Not on 6 o’clock news, Not anywhere prominent on BBC News website.
And, even if it has, how many people would really let it affect their voting?
Hmmm…
Also, it’s worth noting that *despite* the MORI leading questioning, this poll still shows a contraction in Livingstones lead from the one in February. Down from 4% to 1% on 1st preferences.
I would still put the odds at 65/35% to Boris.
218. Peter.
Did you even read what I just wrote?
I have a mobile. That isn’t the issue.
216 BTW Casino, don’t you have a lunch break? If not, you clearly don’t work for the State. Or perhaps you are you like Gecko in Wall Street, who believed that lunch was for wimps.
220) The blackberry, using betfair lite works well. Think one can get a blackberry pretty cheaply these days.
Casinso Royale - I have an IPhone - a bit expensive but great to use and I occasionally create PBC pages on it.
For a cheaper option try one of the XDAs from T-mobile which also gives you as much data usage as you want each month for just £7.50
185 Suppose the more normal wording would have produced Con 40%, Lab 38%, LD 14%, Green 3%, BNP 2%, Oths 3% then it’s quite likely the 2nd pref would have shown Con 51% Lab 49% or similar. It’s a very small difference, but I think the way the question’s worded does shade it in Ken’s direction.
221. I have lunch at my desk!
But you need to respond to events in minutes, if not seconds, not hours.
What I need is a very discreet mobile, where I can check the odds and place bets at my desk in SECONDS after reading a tip-off on pb.com. I don’t like the pressure of asking a trader to quote the odds and being forced to make an immediate decision.
I generally have pb.com open on my machine and check it for a few seconds every 30-45 minutes. If people are predicting an imminent release of a poll, I check it more regularly.
223. Mike - how much is an Iphone?
Sounds like I’m getting ripped off by O2. I pay £30 a month for a minutes and text contract!
219 You are right, of course, I doubt whether Newnight has an audience of more than about 1.5 million, of which probably not more than 600,000 will vote and probably less than 5% of those will be swayed one way or another by last night’s debate.
226 Of which perhaps 300,000 live in London. Of which 120,000 will vote, and of which , 6,000 will be swayed.
226 Idiot me! 1.5 million would be their nationwide audience, so Londo would be around 15% of this or less.
Gordon Brown not attending the olympics… has someone already said that?
227 Indeed, and presumably not all swayed the same way, so a negligible impact. Probably similar in number to those reading the Evening Standard, although Mr Gilligan is hammering on about Ken virtually every day.
OT, but on local elections. It’s interesting to see that with the county councils all being elected from scratch for Northumberland and Durham for 2009 THIS year (that’s right, isn’t it?!), Labour have the potential for massive embarrassment if Brown doesn’t go to the country next year.
It may be overshadowed by the Euros of course, but the only local elections are the county councils plus a few other NOC or Con/LD councils. Now in 2005, Labour held Northumberland and Durham comfortably, but otherwise only held
Derbyshire 38 vs 26 others
Lancashire 44 vs 40 others
Nottinghamshire 36 vs 31
Staffordshire 32 vs 30
and were nowhere near control anywhere else exc Cumbria (39 vs 45).
It’s a long way off, but what odds BBC graphics with Labour on
ZERO councils come next year??? Is this possible, or have I
missed something somewhere?
211 et al-I know in some US states/cities ballot order is randomly shuffled, with no major disruption.
Find it hard to believe Ken is now pipping BJ at the finish line. I am prepared to believe it’s less than the 10%+ gap highlighted earlier but still believe it’s Boris’ to lose. barring unforeseens, and “every day now is one day less”, I expect a 53-47/54-46 finish. We’ll see.
232. The Aussies rotate the ballots, I think, but that is linked to the fact they have compulsory voting…
One observation on the state of play in London - I would be very surprised if Gilligan has spent his ammunition. Indeed, I believe he has said in his column there is more to come. His early attacks were very effective, ended Jasper’s career (for now) and damaged Ken greatly. Further revelations could be decisive.
In betting terms I don’t think that changes much for now. The sages of this site are correct - time to sit on your hands. There is not much value in Boris at the moment, but there might be value if he moves out and you believe I am right about Gilligan.
226-230. Yup.
And, believe me, Boris will be getting an absolute *BOLLOCKING* for screwing up last night by the Tory bigwigs.
Cameron/Crosby either won’t let him do it again, or they will ensure he is much better prepared, or trained to avoid awkward questions.
Also, funny theory of mine.. Anyone else agree with me that Boris Johnson/Ken livingstone 2008 and John Kerry/George Bush 2004, might, just *might*, have something in common here?
People assume voters won’t vote for a bumbling, stumbler who comes across as a bit unprepared?
Boris is, naturally, far, far more intelligent than Bush, but I think we underestimate how his bumbling unpreparedness, lack of slickness and political incorrectness are refreshingly endearing to many voters.
Otherwise, how did Boris get so popular in the first place?
And how has he stayed popular despite (nominally) criticising Portsmouth, Liverpool, Birmingham, a number of social groups, and having his private life raked over in the press?
I’ve found the Yes Prime Minister lines. They boil down to:
(On reintroduction of National Service)
VERSION ONE:
Q1: Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?
Q2: Do you think there is lack of discipline and vigorous training in our Comprehensive Schools?
Q3: Do you think young people welcome some structure and leadership in their lives?
Q4: Do they respond to a challenge?
Q5: Might you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?
VERSION TWO
Q1: Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the danger of war?
Q2: Are you unhappy about the growth of armaments?
Q3: Do you think there’s a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?
Q4: Do you think it’s wrong to force people to take arms against their will?
Q5: Would you oppose the reintroduction of conscription?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: There you are, Bernard. The perfectly balanced sample.
Andy C The video id even more effective as Bernard’s face adds power to the clever words.
236 Yes Minister is timeless.
Mike on Ken’s olympic poll - that’s hilarious! it’s up there with the Lib Dem one asking ‘if you thought the liberal democrats could win in your constituency, how would you vote?’ which produced 200+ Lib Dem seats.
Presumably Brian Paddick will find himself in a very good position for a parliamentary seat after this. that’s what the first candidate did (whose name I’ve forgotten but she’s an MP in south west London). Ex-banker.
235.Remember the press following him around the Conservative Conference a couple of years ago, or when they followed him for days after the expose on his private life? What was interesting was the amount of TV news coverage it all got, I don’t think that I heard anything on the national news about the revelations about Ken Livingston’s family life last week.
ConHom on “The one hundred Westminster insiders that report daily to the new PoliticsHomeIndex were asked earlier today about likely next leaders of the Conservative, Labour and LibDem parties.”
“Insiders predict that Osborne, Miliband and Huhne are likeliest next leaders of their parties”
Millipede? You can gauge how desperate the anyone-but-Brown camp were that his name was seriously bandied around last year.
240 Doesn’t that rule all three out as the law of sod comes into play so quickly in these sorts of things.
240 “Insiders predict that Osborne, Miliband and Huhne are likeliest next leaders of their parties”
A damning indictment on the depth of parliamentary talent if ever I heard one.
In fact, another Yes, Prime Minister quote comes to me - “rather like choosing which of the lunatics to run the asylum…”
240. ChrisD. You are correct.
And… don’t forget the “tackle”.
Boris “tackle” in the football friendly against Germany would have had 1000x more impact on voting intentions any Newsnight debate.
It made him a hero amongst Under-40 males. It was gutsy, non-political and “cool!”.
We are political wonks on here - not a representative sample of voters.
239 Presumably Brian Paddick will find himself in a very good position for a parliamentary seat after this.
Could be tricky if, as the betting markets are suggesting, the LibDems are likely to lose a significant number of their seats.
New Insider Advantage Primary poll for Pennsylvania :
Clinton 48% .. Obama 38%
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_49_328.aspx
244. Hmm… Seems I was wrong.
Boris’ tackle has 1,088,646 views on YouTube
Boris’ mess-up on Newsnight has 255 views on YouTube
Sorry. I make that 4,000+ time more impact.
240 - I am not sure I regard any of those as terribly likely successors.if cameron fails it is unlikely the party will demand even more callow youth and inexperience, if he succeeds it is unlikely a coronation of the chancellor will ensue either while the Tories are in power or after a subsequent defeat. Milliband is named only because he was quite bizarrely linked for the PM job when some Blairites were perceptively casting round for an anti-gordon candidate. IF he has a future (which remains to be seen - I suspect he lacks the gravitas) he would not help his cause by taking the reins after a Brown defeat. Huhne is perhaps more likely, but I wonder if a man who has tried and failed twice will ever be given another crack of the whip. Besides, barring a disaster at the next election or a scandal, Clegg is young enough to go on for a decade or more.
240 - I am not sure I regard any of those as terribly likely successors.if cameron fails it is unlikely the party will demand even more callow youth and inexperience, if he succeeds it is unlikely a coronation of the chancellor will ensue either while the Tories are in power or after a subsequent defeat. Milliband is named only because he was quite bizarrely linked for the PM job when some Blairites were perceptively casting round for an anti-gordon candidate. IF he has a future (which remains to be seen - I suspect he lacks the gravitas) he would not help his cause by taking the reins after a Brown defeat. Huhne is perhaps more likely, but I wonder if a man who has tried and failed twice will ever be given another crack of the whip. Besides, barring a disaster at the next election or a scandal, Clegg is young enough to go on for a decade or more.
jonah brown not going to opening ceremony. what a loser
244. Except it wasn’t a proper tackle. It was a charge with his headdown.
Clegg to remain leader “for a decade or more” and all down to those undelivered ballot papers!
250. Socrates.
Hence the inverted commas of “tackle” rather than just.. tackle.
And anyway, that was the basis of its appeal, don’t ya think?!
If we take 1979GE as a starting point all main parties have had the same number of leaders, but note the caveats!
Tories: Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron=6
Labour: Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock, Smith, Beckett (but also caretaker?), Blair, Brown=7-1=6
Liberals/LD: Thorpe, Steel, Maclennan (!!-in merger caretaker mode), Ashodown, Kennedy, Ming, Clegg=7-1=6
Good discussion on here re the MORI questions.
But I’d like to stick up for MORI - I think given the supplementary vote system it is very difficult to come up with a question that actually reflects voters’ thought processes.
I’ve been saying for a while that all pollsters have problems with this - any description of 1st vote/2nd vote just confuses the respondent. I agree with the poster above who said a simple ‘here are the candidates - which one are you going to vote for?’
The reason why both Ken and Boris are being over estimated by all pollsters is that people are factoring in their second vote when being asked the question about their first.
253. Thorpe had relnquished the leadership in 1976, to spend more time with his learned friends…
He “relinquished” his seat in 1979…
253 - If including Beckett, why not Vince Cable?
Oh god, oh to be a fly on the wall in the BBC newsroom these days. That new Indian foreign editor is truely awful. I give him 90 days at most before he get’s binned. A spread anyone?
252 - Boris was just playing the Eton wall rules…
252. By “”tackle”" I thought you meant “rugby tackle”, compared to just “tackle”, which would have implied “football tackle”. Clearly by “tackle” you meant “not really a tackle at all”.
I thought that the choice of Huhne for the Libdems was the only strong contender out of the three. It’s more telling to note that neither Labour or the Conservatives have anyone who really sticks out as a likely successor to Brown and Cameron at the moment.
254 etc - Surely the most sensible and valid thing to do is to present your sample with a form as near identical to the actual voting form as possible. (btw how is the form structured?)
256-fair dos!!! my point was that all major parties have had a similar number of leaders in the present (arguable) electoral cycle/period/epoch.
I guess we could add Cable but subtract Thorpe as he lost his seat, so LD 6+1-1=6, seems like the Liberal result in 1950s elections!!
259 - The difference being that nobody within the Tory party is looking around for a new leader.
249.I would not rule Huhne out, he is ambitious and clearly desperately wants the job. Despite the fact that Ken Clark has been a runner up numerous times in the Conservative leadership contests, I never really got the impression that he wanted passionately enough.
258 – For God sake, it was not a proper tackle, Boris is not a proper footballer and it still got 1,000,000 plus visitor on YouTube and Boris’ street cred amongst the under 25’s hit the roof. which bit do you not understand now?
259-agree, but he has to hold Eastleigh
262.It makes a nice change!
But usually the main parties have one or two obvious successor’s floating around the cabinet, I can think of no one who stands out in either of the main parties at the moment.
261 - How about: since 1979, the ordering of the parties by number of leaders (including acting leaders) has been inversely proportional to the ordering of parties by years in power/elections won?
Changing leaders clearly leads to/stems from a lack of political success - or is that pre/post hoc ergo propter hoc?
Churchill, Attlee, Grimmond.
Macmillan, Wilson, Lloyd-George.
Cameron, Brown, Clegg.
Osbourne, Milliband, Huhne.
Nuff said.
Malcolm
265.I would have thought the extra exposure from standing in two leadership contests would have strengthened his position?
261 Vince Cable was acting leader of the Lib Dems so doesn’t really count, Margaret Beckett was constitutionally the Leader of the Labour Party so does.
266 - Well the most obvious Tory successor has already had the job, but crashed and burned…
I can guarantee one thing though, the choice of Osborne will have one or two of the regulars over at ConHom reaching for the smelling salts.
271.And he does not want it again.
262. I’m sure there are sections of the party scouting for a popular right-wing figure who could take over.
Re Leaders: Remember that Blair and Cameron, the two figures who brought their respective parties back from the brink were unknown at time their parties were ejected from power.
LL G would out do Clegg in any leg over contest.
But seriously consider the range of talent in LL G’s cabinet - compare that with today’s pygmies.
Yes Minister books were very clever adaptations in the style of Crossman Diaries, and a delight to read.
Part of the Wikipedia entry highlights Lynn and Jay’s determination not to not treat viewers with contempt for their IQs, they assumed that they were dealing with other intelligent people. It is a shame that others did not follow their style.
Will people fondly remember ‘The Thick of It’ in the same way?
268 Once there were giants
Or were there? Age and passing time, remembrance of youth. Summers were sunnier, the music was less commercial, food tasted better, leaders were leaders then.
anyone watching newsnight tonight will understand how utterly f*cked the UK economy is. goodnight gordon brown
Interesting political story from the Mail
http://tinyurl.com/5cutz2
Could be a story line from a soap.
Malc - yes, I remember Nellist was supposed to be an austere sort of bloke, who stuck to his beliefs. Is he still around?
130 - a friend pointed out the fears about the Geneva collider last year when I was PPS to the Science Minister and I fell into a Yes Minister-style exchange that I’m embarrassed to recall (but it’s quite funny so…):
Friend: “Nick, you ought to raise this with your boss, in case he’s not seen it.”
Me: “Yes, he’d be impressed with my awareness of complex scientific issues.”
Friend (mildly): “Well, yes, and it might save the universe too. Minor point, eh?”
(For the record I did raise it and advice was taken. Civil service scientists advise that it’s almost certainly OK…I’m sure you all feel reassured by that.)
Canvassing update and reality check. No-one mentioned Newsnight in two and a half hours on the stump tonight.
…but three mentioned Ken’s donation exposé in the Standard.
Let’s not forget that the parties have done their own London polling.
If Labour’s was good, why did they start writing off Ken?
There were rumours from the journos that the Tories own polling showed Boris ahead, but not by wide margin of the You Gov[about 6% on Sky].
In this second-guessing game, we may not know what the parties private polling said but there is some evidence of their reaction to it.
Mr Dither I see is at it again. Can’t the man just for once in his life do something early and decisive. You can almost see the thought processes - Erm, people have said nasty things about attending the Olympics, erm other people have said they’re not going, erm I’d better say I’m not going, erm that’d upset the Chinese, erm can’t do that, erm I’m going to p*ss my pants thinking about it, I know I’ll boycott the opening ceremony and attend the closing.
Result, like with the election and 10p tax rate and so much else he ends up pleasing no one.
This a link to a letter sent to the press by our local PC on the mayoral race.
News of it reached Boris. He thought it very funny.
http://www.bexleytimes.co.uk/content/bexley/times/default/story.aspx?brand=BMLYTOnline&category=postbag&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=zpostbagbexley&itemid=WeED09%20Apr%202008%2016%3A43%3A11%3A623
280 Mary - did anyone refer to Ken’s use of the word “undoubtably”?
The reason why both Ken and Boris are being over estimated by all pollsters is that people are factoring in their second vote when being asked the question about their first.”
I believe that’s correct.
What an incredible tale from Benedict Brogan on Brown does deal with Labour general secretary. Is this true?!?
Donig this on the hop:
say, very minor 1%
Respect 3%
Green 5%
BNP 5%
UKIP 1%, leaves 85% for big 3. Say camp commander 12%, 73% for big 2. Say breaks 39-34 for Boris (reasonable?). So Boris takes 1% of Green, 2% of BNP, .5% of UKIP, 4% of LD=46.5 points ( not %), Ken 34+2% Respect+3% Green+.5% BNP+7%LD (?!)=46.5 points. So dead heat?
Still think BJ has edge, as think he should get higher 2d preferences than indicated from all the others, but, nonetheless, do not believe above scenario is TOO far fetchd. All to play for…!!
CNN reporting Brown has decided to boycott the opening ceremony of The Olympic Games. Also on Newsnight Hillary Clinton reported as praising Brown for doing so.
Downing Street says he never intended to go and that it is not intended as a snub.
288.stjohn, apparently he never intended to go to the opening, but instead always planned to attend the closing ceremony because we are the next nation to host the Olympics.
But we knew he wasn’t going to attend the opening ceremonies
Over at ConHom Greg Hands writes an article in praise of Andrew Gilligan
“One final thought - where has the GLA been the last 8 years? The body that has been elected to scrutinise the Mayor has hardly laid a finger on him, and certainly not on any of these ethics issues. Did nobody notice that Livingstone hasn’t declared a donation for 7 years?”
Can anyone tell me how you can fund a campaign for Mayor in a city the size of London without donations?
“What effect did MORI’s wording have?”
Anthony Wells asked (also) the question.
288 Also on Newsnight, Hillary Clinton reported as praising Brown for doing so.
Oh dear, oh dear! With friends like that ….
288-Is Brown an !diot? He really is a mess. Makes the dying days of the Tories seem dignified.
O/T-Personally, I am chuffed to bits about the Olympic torch saga. Clearly the Chinese regime is not Sweden, but we all knew that…More importantly it debases the whole concept of the Olympics. Does anyone really care? People care about the World Cup, but does anyone really care about the Olympics?? I have certainly found no one, however noble it is for the BBC to transmit the Paralympics (why not the Gay Olympics, or the White Olympics where white athletes get a chance?). Let’s face it, no one is going to cry over them in the pub. Proof: if people cared so much why is there no Olympic hooliganism? maybe going for the negative here but the point stands…
287. That’s Ken taking 62.5% of all the effective transfers. He got 52% in 2000 and 53.5% in 2004….
As I put on the previous thread, I think Ken could overhaul a 1% Boris lead with transfers, but 5%?
Remote, surely?
Mind you FPTP elections (and polls) don’t measure how UNpopular a candidate is, only how popular. And the most popular may simultaneously be the most UNpopular!
I wonder. Is Boris the effective Condorcet Loser of this election? SV does not guarantee the defeat of the CL (unlike AV), but it makes it a little more likely than under FPTP.
Still 62% of transfers for Ken would be a shocker…
286 Chris - It’s a cracking tale, Brogan at his best.
291 - You didn’t read my posts of a few days ago, I’m afraid you are quite simply wrong on that.
The olympics tends to be about success rather than ‘us versus them’, as such the hooliganism that has blighted other sports at times is, thankfully, absent.
Brown is right not to attend the opening ceremony, but it would be even better if all politicians boycotted the games whilst leaving the athletes to get on with their job. Will they do that? No, because the will be hurting themselves and they’d prefer others to do their hurting for them.
286:
I see Brogan’s post says:
‘The PM championed his appointment earlier this year, and is now frustrated by Mr Pitt-Watson’s hesitance.’
Do pots and kettles spring to mind (and I’m not referring to roger’s greatest fan on PB.com)?
292-As i said, it was done with 5-6 beers on the hop. Unless the difference between Boris and Ken is less than, say 2%, I would expect whoever came top on 1st prefeences to win. Maybe being too pessimistic on Boris in my previous post.
294-How did you feel about sports boycotts of RSA?
2974/297-reread post, please ignore.
I was trying to pin down someone who thought sport and politics don’t match and catch them out when they contradict each other.
Apol-logeeees!!!
Again, I said that on the thread. I thought they made no difference and, instead, the various sporting bodies should have bypassed the existing boards by organising tours to South Africa which played with multi-racial teams, helping to build a different infrastructure. Okay, the SA government may have thrown them out but it would have been much more effective than just not going.
Countries with such poor human rights records can only be challenged from within, you won’t aid the Tibetans by standing outside but you will by getting in there and helping them and connecting them to the world. If the Chinese government makes that impossible then the onus will have been shifted to them and their refusal can be turned into greater economic and political sanctions. That’s where the true power lies.
Could we be heading for “Florida-on-the-Thames” ?
What the hell does this mean?
“If there is a tie the Greater London Returning Officer (GLRO) draws lots. ***No matter how close the result, a London-wide recount cannot be ordered – the GLRO does not have the power to do this. Only constituency returning officers are able to order re-counts.***”
http://2004.londonelects.org.uk/voting/howthevoteworks/mayor-2.html
295 “and I’m not referring to roger’s greatest fan on PB.com”
Robusticus - I’m pretty sure I know who you mean, but please confirm that the pots/pans in question were of the projectile variety.
301.Its the bit about the Labour party finances that I found a bit odd?
298 - And I just spent ages clarifying it!!
Oh well, as you can see, I think the sports people should do their job and, if this is compromised by the politicians in their own or the host country (as was the case with Basil D’Oliveira and South Africa), then I think they should try and use their position to help the sport in that country rather than just leaving them to it.
Sport can be an effective enabler beyond politics, it shouldn’t be another pawn in the political game.
302 Chris - Odd in what sense?
303.”Sport can be an effective enabler beyond politics, it shouldn’t be another pawn in the political game.”
I agree with the sentiment ukpaul, but it always has been.
304.I am having a lot of posts disappear into the ether these days on PB.com despite the fact they contain no offending or dodgy words. I copied and pasted the relevant bit of Brogan’s article but it did not appear.
I was referring to the reason that David PittWatson appeared reluctant to take up the post.
“The new general secretary is said to be worried about the state of the party’s finances and the rules that say his personal assets could be forfeit if the party goes into liquidation.”
Quoting BBC News as the source, Iain Dale has this on his Diary this evening:
At his Downing Street news conference on 1 April, Mr Brown said: “I think President Sarkozy said himself that he expected Britain, because we are going to host the next Olympics, to be present at the Olympic ceremonies and I will certainly be there.”
306.I should have emphasised the fact that I found it surprising that the rules effect the general secretary in this way?
306 Fear not Chris, your post #286contained highlighted text, which did indeed link to Benedict Brogan’s blog.
I don’t find it that surprising that an officer of the Labour party could find his personal assets at risk were it to fail financially - surely this is theoretically the case of a great number of business organisations, etc. and was surely the entire purpose for their owners setting up limited liability structures so as to cap such exposure.
308 - I am not, I suspect it is a legal requirement.
I ran to be on the Student Union Executive when at uni and one of the forms I had to sign said that should I win I would take on all obligations the post would entail . . . including that were the Union to go into liquidation that I could be personally liable for it with my own finances.
309 It is also why it is entirely normal for organisations to take out Directors’ and Officers’ insurance cover.
309&310.Thanks for verifying that.
311 Philip, IIRC it was you yesterday, who was querying whether your exposure on GE seats appeared somewhat excessive - are you now comfortable with your positions?
307. Gordon Brown been caught out telling lies again?
And in other news, the sun set this evening and is expected to rise in the morning!
307/314: No, the point is that he’ll be there for the closing ceremony because it’s the handover to Britain as next hosts. Clegg, who was critical of him for not saying earlier he’d miss the opening ceremony, agreed that he couldn’t really boycott the handover to Britain.
What’s Cameron’s view on this - does he have one?
315.”What’s Cameron’s view on this - does he have one?”
Why, will he be going?
Well Ive just watched that Mayoral candidate debate on BBC News Online. There’s no doubt Boris Johnson came across worst out of the three candidates. He’ll probably still win the election, though.
To suggest Brown has “lied” about this Olympics stuff is silly. However, he does look a fool yet again. He’s had to “clarify” something in a way that makes it look - rightly or wrongly - that’s “dithered”. Tory strategists have got him bang to rights on this and Cameron will damage him week after week at PMQs by presenting him as indecisive.
135. Can we start a campaign to get pollsters to move away from the spurious accuracy implied by percentages and move to fractions - I suggest 32nds. This would allow for the 3% margin of error.
No need to - those of us who understand statistics, percentages, and margins of error will always mentally adjust the figures to allow for noise, error and time-delay, whereas the chavvy idiotic proles who don’t understand such things can be left to wallow in their ignorance, fantasies, kneejerking reactions, delusions and conspiracy theories to their hearts’ content.
Nick, at his April 1 News Conference, Brown referred to being present at the Olympic ceremonies, note the plural. Had he meant only the closing ceremony, note the singular, then why didn’t he say so?
196. Because they are deliberately and consciously dishonest.
‘Nick, at his April 1 News Conference, Brown referred to being present at the Olympic ceremonies…’
Sounds as if Brown’s pronouncements on this matter - as on many others - are riddled with obfuscations, ambiguities and contradictions. Alas, this tends to happen when a fundamentally weak personality with a staggering sense of self worth is placed in a position of responsibility far beyond his abilities.
210. In my student union elections, the names ont he ballot papers were usually listed randomly, and rotated. There was never any big problem counting.
Perhaps I am missing something. The whole country is indebted beyond belief and more so than any of our trading competitors but the BoE is being pressured to lower rates to allow more borrowing particularly in the housing market.
So the treatment is more of the disease?
323 - In Australia the names are the same on all the ballots, but are randomly drawn rather than in alphabetical order. Due to compulsory voting and the transferable vote method used, it is said that being at/near the top of the of the ballot can be worth upto 2% of the vote, certainly can be within the margin of victory. This is due to the so-called ‘Donkey Vote’ where someone votes the top one as 1, next 2 etc down to the bottom.
As a Thompson, I find a random draw to be fairer than alphabetical order
114. The BBC results programme in 1992 seemed to assume that the exit poll was perfectly accurate for all the results which had not yet been declared, and their computer apparently had not mechanism for factoring in the declared results to adjust the predictions for the not-yet-declared results. Thus they were still predicting a hung parliament after 100 or 200 results had been declared.
313 - Thanks for asking. I am very nervous, but am confident the call is right and don’t want to close it at a loss due to no movement yet on the Spread (well, some minor movement in my favour but not enough to even cover the spread yet). Don’t know if that’s arrogance though that will go wrong.
I’m hoping for a comprehensive Boris victory and Tory sweep in May moves the markets allows me to get out at a profit then, but if it did I’d probably then think to myself “see, was right all along, stay the course” and will hold on to the bet.
Yes, they made the same dreadful mistake as some people here did in 2005, paying too much attention to the swings in the seats the Opposition WON, instead of the overall swing. Sunderland South swing (to Labour) was 2.5%. Final national swing was 2.1%. After 16 declarations in 1992 it was a stone-cold certainty the Tories would win a majority…
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P.S)
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327 Philip - Obviously I know nothing of your personal circumstances, nor can I precisely recall the details of your GE Seats spread bets, although I believe they were quite substantial.
Personally, I’m a great believer in “building” a position on a spread bet, i.e. adding to it when you are confident that you are on a winner and perhaps already in a good profit situation, or on the other hand, notwithstanding that you may be losing money, deciding to increase your position because you remain convinced that the bet remains sound and by doing so you are able to reduce your average buy price/increase your average sell price.
Unlike others here, I like the Spreadfair concept, where you are betting on an exchange basis against other punters. Although one is required to pay significant deposits up front to cover a reasonable level of loss, the key advantage is that unlike with other spreadbetting firms, YOU dictate the prices at which you trade, instead of simply accepting the spreads offered to you and taking their spread on the chin - in other words, YOU offer to the market whether buying or selling, much the same as applies with Betfair, although you are free to simply accept the best buy/sell price on offer, should you wish to do so. In this way you are able to all but eliminate the spread which would otherwise apply, although it can take some time to see your price taken up. However, working on such narrow spreads, enables one to trade again and again without taking huge risks.
Whatever you may decide, the very best of luck!
Yes, it is quite substantial - and all done at once this week. £10 Tory buy @ 314 and £40 buy at 317 . . . plus a £25 Labour sell @ 262. Essentially £75 a seat.
I agree with Mike that the more publicity Cameron gets the better the Tories do, and I think this will be critical in the final election campaign meaning the Tories will improve over the polls (so if the poll suggest a minor majority like now when the campaign begins, then it will be slightly more significant/certain after the campaign).
I think in the future if I do continue dabbling in this then I will prefer Spreadfair, a 6 seat spread is very substantial and makes reversing the bet quite difficult.
Hello again.
In response to the discussion about the question wording of the two mayoral polls Ipsos MORI has published so far this year:
The survey conducted in February for the Labour Party used our standard mayoral voting intention question. The survey conducted in April, for UNISON, used a slightly different question introduction, naming the Green candidate as well as the three main candidates, because it was intended to replicate a survey conducted in 2004 for the same client, which also named the Green candidate (it is reasonable to choose Sian Berry as the fourth candidate to be named in any case, as she has received more recent media coverage than other minor candidates, and was in clear 4th place in our February poll in which no minor party candidates were named in the question).
Of course it is possible that this change in the question wording will have had some effect on responses, probably by increasing the Green share of first preference votes. It is not obvious which method provides a more accurate reflection of real voting behaviour at the ballot box. It seems unlikely that the change will have had a significant effect on the final share (including transfers) for Ken Livingstone or Boris Johnson since those whose first choice was Green were able to name a second choice as well. I have put an additional table up on the website of the ‘criss cross’ of first vote against second vote, here: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/content/polls-08/london-mayoral-election-polling-april-2008.ashx (although due to our new website this is taking longer than anticipated — it will be up very soon if it isn’t now!). This should help to clarify things.
Cheers,
Julia Clark
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute