The Question Time Mayoral debate
April 24th, 2008
Could this be a game-changing event?
The big debate in the London Mayoral campaign starts at 10.35pm. Is this going to change the election? How will it affect the betting?
The latest prices are here
Mike Smithson
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Boris is going to win before the debate and barring a disaster of epic proportions he will win afterwards.
In short, no, I don’t think tonight will have much bearing on the result.
**crosses fingers**
From previous thread [do forgive me, Mike!]
I don’t buy the prognostications on this site.
If the Tory lead in the election mirrored the Telegraph poll lead (i.e. 18%), I think the Tory Commons majority would be three figures.
An 18% lead is a paradigm shift, from the left to the right. A total change. And that means many things. That Labourites have lost their fear of a Tory government. That anti-Tory tactical voting will unwind. It means major Labour abstentions and serious Tory motivation. It also implies total Labour collapse in Scotland.
In other words: it means previous models will not apply.
EDW on the previous thread has already given us a taste of it.
Looks as though he was in the audience on a PDA.
Early indications from him that it was a score draw.
EDW said that Boris was more assured tonight.
And mine from the previous thread too…
Evening all again
Re: 222 - Hard to argue with that, Socrates. This is of course the longer-term strategy. IF Cameron wins the next election, we all know that within a couple of years the unravelling will have begun, seanT will be comparing Cameron to some unpleasant part of the human anatomy because he had failed to do exactly what seanT or Tom Knox wanted him to do while Ave It 2012 will be raving about how Labour will win a 200 majority and Watford are certain to go up to the Premiership
For those of us in the real world (sorry, Martin Day) the question will be where all the discontented Tories will go to protest. The need is for Nick Clegg to be able to take full advantage of the mid-term protest.
On the assumption he will survive the next GE (and that was a reason for NOT voting for Chris Huhne) Nick will have had a further three or four years to get the hang of the job and become better known publically. Neither Charles Kennedy nor Paddy Ashdown started that well but improved as time went on and the same will be true with Nick Clegg. I thought he was better on 5 Live this morning.
betfair has suddenly moved to boris and away from ken. is there a mayoral poll due tonight??
boris now 1.53, ken 2.7
5 - has Nathan Ellington scored yet?
Boris has always been good at Question Time. I think that conversational style is much more suited to him than a Paxman type interogation.
But the chances of this poll being accurate after the 5% ICM one is extremely slight. Yougov polls move like yoyos. Voters tend not to which is why I don’t believe they’ve got it right.
6-Spreads are wide with no liquidity.
Debate on QT has already taken place.
No overall winner i gather.
9 - Last YouGov poll 16% Conservative lead, this YouGov poll 18% hardly yoyo like is it.
Some really odd movements in the next mayor market.
First a huge block appears to lay Boris @ 1.62 - block is unmatched, but disappears. Then someone backs Boris down to 1.52, puts a big block on the offer - 1.64? then that disappears… can’t imagine a rational explanation - thoughts?
9. Don’t forget Populus though Roger, which gave the Tories a 10% lead, there largest ever with that polling organisation. A 10% lead with Populus could easily translate to a 15% lead with YouGov. Taking Populus and YouGov together, I think ICM are the pollsters that are on a limb here.
One more national poll to come this month, ComRes, which I think we should see on Sunday night.
12-Someone is bored….
re 9 Roger - Remember the golden rule - the most accurate poll is the one in which Labour is doing worst. This has been the case for decades.
14) I suppose they could be just spoofing.. dangerous game though!
13. I would like to institute Smithson’s Third Law: the true state of the parties is deduced by averaging the two recent polls regarded by the left, and the right, respectively, as being most “rogue”.
e.g. We Tories think last week’s 5% was clearly rogue, you lefty twits think this one is rogue. Take them together and average: the Tory lead is 10-11%.
Sounds about right, I’d say.
If EDW is right and Boris did OK then I think he’s practically home and hosed.
This is his biggest test. If he passes then he really ought to win. He has won most of the mayoral polls, some by a large margin and has the backdrop of a collapse in Labour support nationally, according to today’s poll.
I was GREEN on both Boris and Ken but have moved to a strong GREEN position on Boris and now RED Ken. (Isn’t Red Ken a posh hair product?)
17. Populus has it then!
13. 5,10 18. Surely if any are out of line it’s the 18? Yougov’s panel could easily be corrupted by the type of uber Tories who post on Guido joining and pretending to be Sun reading socialists. I don’t know if this has happened but it’s a possibility which couldn’t happen to Populus Mori or ICM.
OT can someone explain why Obama is known as “Land of Lincolner” ? Thanks in advance, its really bothering me.
17. But that’s not Smithson’s Law, it’s yours. Why not take credit for it Sean?
21. Abraham Lincoln came from Illinois. Illinois other claims to fame are maize, beans and Al Capone. Thus they chose as their state motto “The Land of Lincoln”. Obama comes from Illinois and is thus the “Land of Lincolner”.
Great NYT story on the weekend about the Whitehouse manipulating cable news coverage:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/washington/20generals.html?_r=2&scp=3&sq=Pentagon&st=nyt&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Scarily, this report never got any airing on cable news.
5. Its not that I disagree with you. its just a bit depressing. The LD’s can only really grow under a tory government? Waitrose to labours M and S a smaller more niche market of fundamentally the same franchise?
Lets see what ComRes says. I had my 5th labour leaflet since Christmas this evening from a reinvigorated local labour party. Its all contextual.
20. Oh dear.
22. Sean’s Third Law. Hm. What were the first two?
5 stodge do you really think Clegg will survive if he loses 1/3 (-20) of his LD MPs?
At what level would he be a goner in your estimation -30? -40, -50?
26 -60? LOL
Thanks Socrates, but how can one person from the land of Lincoln be known as “land of Lincolner” is doesn’t make sense. And why are there only 355 matches of the phrase on google? Is it a very recent phrase only ever used in the Obama context? There are no maize, beans or Al Capone references I’ve seen…
27 er that is me
25. Chastity and Obedience?
26 - Clegg wants to double the number of Lib Dem MP’s within two general elections. Well it wont be too hard if they get knocked down to 40 next time!
My guess is that the Tories have a 12-14% lead- this will be shown in ICM soon.
The local elections will be dire, and Labour may well move to common 15% deficits, running to 20%.
I can hear the sounds of knives sharpening!
20. Roger. It’s also possible that You Gov is accurate and “things will only get worse” with Brown in charge. If so then buying Tory seats/selling Labour, even at the current spreads, could prove very profitable. To my reckoning there seems a much better chance of a good profit than a bad loss in this strategy.
I agree with SeanT’s post at 2. So I’m once again back into the spread betting market on GE seats.
23: It was mentioned on The Daily Show. Which is on cable, if not technically being “news”.
All Boris has to do here is to avoid doing something really stupid, a blunder of newsworthy proportions then he’s won.
BBC report USA has accused N.Korea of helping Syria build covert nuclear plant.
Bit scarey.
Roger - April poll results. We’ve had two polls each in April from three pollsters. ICM had biggest shifts at 4% movement in Tory share down and 2% Labour up against the trend in both other pollsters. Lets see what Comres shows but I think Labour may have had false hopes from Guardian ICM.
YouGov/Telegraph 44:26:17
ICM/Guardian 39:34:19
Populus/Sunday Mirror 40:30:19
YouGov/Sunday Times 44:28:17
Populus/Times 39:33:17
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 43:32:18
5. OK, here’s a question for all you Lib Demmers.
Do you honestly.. honestly… HONESTLY believe that in the next decade or so Lib Dems will form part of the British government?
If you do believe this, how exactly is it going to happen? A coalition? Or are you going to supplant one of the major two parties? Is so, how? Why then do you behave as if you don’t want this (e.g. in the EU Referendum debate)?
If you don’t believe you will be in power in the next 10 years - surely the more likely of the two options - why the F do you bother?
A genuine question.
12.
The kiss of death has been applied to Ken by Tony Blair’s support for him.
21- “Land of Lincolner” is derived from the fact that Obama’s home state, Illinois, is popularly known as the Land of Lincoln (e.g., this slogan is printed on Illinois vehicle license plates). Just as someone from New York is known as a “New Yorker,” someone from Illinois could be, albeit awkwardly, referred to as a “Land of Lincolner.”
A long time since I’ve seen Boris. He’s not very good! Still bears all the hallmarks of a debater at the Oxford Union.
I wonder if that will have an effect - at the end of the day this is about leading London, not the Union!
37: Why does anyone aside from the Tories or the Lib Dems bother? The Greens? The BNP? They bother because they believe in…whatever the Lib Dems believe. I’m never really sure what that is.
37- I actually think Nick Clegg is rather good, and is going to do much better at the next election than many people here think. The LD white, Obama
Boris really is full of it.
Paddick comparing himself to Churchill…ok whatever.
28) OK I guess I get it.
Illinois is known/branded as the “Land Of Lincoln” and I guess Obama’s spin doctors came up with the “Land Of Lincolner” brand, meaning “Illinois er”
37. I think there’s a decent chance of Liberal Democrat participation in a coalition government over the next decade, so yes.
But frankly, if Liberalism had been solely about getting into government, the Liberal Party wouldn’t have made it into the 1950s. In any case there are councils to be won, arguments to be made for a freer and fairer society, and plenty of Tories to wind up under our dear leader Mark Senior (joke!).
If the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist in British politics, then someone would invent them.
Here we go watermelon smiles, this hurt Boris a bit.
Lincoln was born in Kentucky…
44. Illinois-ing ?
Ken looks like he’s basically given up.
Well so far I think Ken AND Boris are coming across well, and Paddick looks a berk - the way he allowed Dimbleby to linger on him considering being Tory candidate was artless and made him look shifty, without damaging Boris.
Boris comes across as very genuine and likeable. Ken comes across as master of the brief.
37.
(a) the question about whether we would be in government is really the same as to whether we get electoral reform. I don’t know but if we went back to 1987 and asked wether we’d have refferendum “yes” votes on Scottish and Welsh Assemblies only 10 years later? 10 years is a long time
(b) numerious contributions to local ragional government/ the lords, being an MEP
(c) why does anyone bother with Amnesty or oxfam? because you believe it?
Paddick defending Jasper… oh god.
46 - it didn’t hurt him. He dealt with it handily.
49. Agreed.
44- You got it. You can’t go wrong in U.S. politics latching on to the legacy of Abraham Lincoln, so Obama’s team and many of his supporters have tried in many ways to associate Obama with Lincoln’s image. This is just one more way to try to make the association (i.e., through geography).
wait until you see Newt squeal on ‘Nazi gaurdgate’. He died and died again.
Boris very good so far. Better performance than Newsnight. Early days.
Ken seems quietly almost benignly resigned to losing?
In the previous thread mentioned was made that very few people know about the 2nd preference bote, yet alone are telling canvassers of which way they are going to vote.
As we only have the second preference election once every four years, it is true that very few electors know that they have a second vote. Even fewer people know if they vote for a candidate who goes into the second round that their second preference will not be counted.
I am told that in other countries where the 2nd preference vote occurs on a regular basis, people do not make up their minds on the second preference in the last 3 or 4 days.
So, on that basis, I think we will be hearing even more about second preference votes in the next few days.
Oooh he’s got down to lying now.
45. But your fatuous positioning on Europe has lost you the goodwill of many people - like me, though you may not care! - to the extent that we won’t trust you in any government.
You promised a referendum, in a manifesto, then betrayed your promise, all to prop up an unpopular Labour government and a hideously undemocratic supranational bureaucracy. And yet you pretend to be all about “democracy and liberalism”.
Spare us.
Score draw so far in the Newsnight Debate. Paddick picking on Ken, quite nicely.
50. I know Paddick somewhat and think he’s a nasty piece of work. Never liked him, and nor did his colleagues. Now he’s shouting - ghastly person.
Boris just looks like a wired amateur to me.
Do agree that Ken looks weary, but then he often has that laconic air and it seems to work somehow.
Boris looks ten times better than he did in the other debates. Very genuine.
Paddick is a total idiot. I really dislike him.
Apologies if this has already been posted - the BBC’s take on tonight’s debate. No surprises about the stance it takes (oh dear!)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7366131.stm
[111 previous thread] - However, they can’t seem to see that their optimum national stratagey is to hammer the major party that is struggling; ie the tories from 1992 til 2005 and now new lab. The only sensible time to kick a man is when he is down.
I disagree slightly - the Lib Dems should have switched whole-heartedly to attacking Labour after the Iraq War. If you look at the 2005 GE they, at best, stood still against the Tories, and made all of their advance against Labour.
My opinion is that had the Lib Dems concentrated on opposing the government they would have made better progress in that election, and would have been better placed in the present period. As it is, the polls show an overall switch from Labour to Tories of 5-10% and the Lib Dems struggling to stand still.
Pretty pro-Boris crowd. They’re even cheering the obviously crap stuff.
60 - sean noone cares about “Europe” (in that way) apart from you.
OH MY GOD Paddick is horrible.
Ken looooooooozing on race. Surprisingly.
I think there will be a touch of irony if Ken Who “smashed labour into the ground” or words to that effect” in 2000 , is smashed into the ground by an hugely unpopular Labour Govt in 2008
28. It’s because he’s the first Presidential candidate from Illinois for a long time, because politics in Illinois is based around the Chicago political scene, which is corrupt as hell to the point you can’t really survive in national politics because of what the press will dig up.
Presidential candidates are talked about so much they need to refer to them by various terms to stop repetition and “Illinoiser” is really awkward.
Paddick: “So they’re as bad as you are” / “They’re both as bad as each other”
Oh go away you creepy also-ran! And I voted LibDem in the last election!
Ok, here goes…
Re: 26 - I don’t have a view on this. I suppose the converse question is what level does Cameron need to get to - 270, 280 ? Is failure to win a majority or become the largest party tantamount to resignation for Dave ?
Re: 37 - I find it strange that though you post on a political site you don’t understand politics at all. It’s not about power at any price (for me). IF David Cameron introduced Liberal Democrat policies in office I would be delighted but I wouldn’t suddenly run off and become a Tory. I’m happy for our party to provide some ideas for others to copy and to be fair the welfare state was pretty much our idea but there’s more to it than that.
I have no expectations of being in Government and I’m not that bothered. If, however, some of our ideas and policies are enacted by someone else and work to the benefit of the country then I’m happy.
What you completely fail to grasp is that patriotism isn’t about shouting how much you love England and hating everything to do with Europe and pouring bile on “lefties” and coming up with whatever tenth-rate insult you’re able to work at - part of being a patriot is working toward the betterment of the country whether the betterment of its governance or the betterment of the lot of its citizens. Many many people do this quietly and unacknowledged every day. THEY are the real patriots - not the flag-waving zealots or small-minded nationalists.
If all you think politics is about is getting your turn at putting your snout in the trough I’m sorry you feel that way. There are contributors on here from all sides that would do a far better job than many of the professional politicians currently seeking office.
66. Not quite true, though I accept my attitude to Europe, in terms of obsession, probably marries yours towards cask-conditioned beer.
SeanT, the Libs never had your goodwill anyhow. And much of the population are not Bill Cash acolytes, aren’t obsessed about the swarthy European at the gates, don’t like the UKIP blazers, and rather like David Cameron rather than entryists trying to force him off course into “Hague Mark II” all over again.
Must try harder.
65.They found his ‘a cleaner London’ line laughable,but then who wouldn’t?
Boris getting better I think.
[36] - Yes, the best guess right now is that it is the ICM poll movement that is the anomaly. I have to admit that I was more surprised by that poll then I am by the latest Yougov.
I can’t think how this 10p thing could have played out worse for Labour. Now the bankbenches give every impression of being supine fools, yet again, when they at least had a possibility of creating the impression that they were holding Brown to account.
Is it me, or does Paddick sound like an automated robot?
Damn, Boris has been really good so far. We should have these kind of debates more often in British politics, they’re fun.
79 - Here, here!!
I cannot believe how rude Brian Paddick is; interupting, shouty and very unpleasant.
I think Paddick has decided to be really vocal as he has been somewhat ignored in previous debates compared to the other two - not convinced it is working - more like a heckler!
72. I repeat my previous point:
You promised a referendum, in a manifesto, then betrayed your promise, all to prop up an unpopular Labour government and a hideously undemocratic supranational bureaucracy. And yet you pretend to be all about “democracy and liberalism”.
Spare us.
What is the point in you? What do you believe in? Nothing unique. What’s the frigging point in you? You are a herpetic sore. Please go away.
63 Having read the BBC guidance on polls posted earlier I think only mentioning the MRUK poll from last Sunday and not the more recent YouGov one is probably outside of the principles in the guidance.
70- Just to be sure this whipped horse is dead and gone, I’ll add that someone from Illinois is not normally called a “Land of Lincolner” or an “Illinoiser,” but rather an Illinoisan.
72 - stodge, that is such an excellent post. You are so unlucky to have a similar nom de plume to me, resulting in us getting mixed up (has happened twice today alone!)
I just write nonsense
Why is the audience laughing and applauding absolutely everything Boris is saying? Pretty lame stuff too.
Have Tory HQ bussed in loads of supporters? Weird.
Boris drowning in his immigration nonsense…….
Score draw it is then.
Penalty shoot out next Thursday
It’s been pretty good… Boris..
before the start it was annouced that all 3 had there people there. Hence boo cheer etc.
Ken very strong on London productivity - at his best in that sort of stuff.
Boris’ eyes very red and blotchy - bad lighting on him. Reminds me a little of the Walter Mondale sight.
Paddick just horrible.
Paddick I WANT TO PUNCH YOU!
84 they did mention it ..in passing at 10.18 on the bBC news at 10pm
Paddick telling Boris to “shut up”; does this man want to be taken seriously? Looks like a man who knows he’s going to lose and lose badly.
93 - Indeed
72: Totally right stodge. Sometimes in this country we forget that we’re all working for one thing, the betterment of the country. To hear some people, on this site and elsewhere, you’d think that Labour hates white English people, that the Tories are literally in a league with the devil and so on. Politics needs raising above that level.
London, please please just get rid of Ken Livingstone!
In 1945 Labour/Tory got 98% of the vote. Its declined decade on decade and in 2005 it slipped below 70% to 68%. Even in todays auper dooper poll that figure is still only 70%.
If the LD’s shut up shop tommorrow someone would invent something very similar.
In tern 2 party politics isn’t morphing into three party politics. Look at the nationalists, the Green party, Richard taylor, dai davis, george galloway, UKIP.
setting participation in a Westminister coalition government as being the only purpose in politics is bonkers.
37. SeanT I think there is a real possibility that Labour will implode after the next election. Not in the way it did before - in fact the early 80’s were quite a good time to be a Labour activist.Fighting the Trots was a struggle worth the effort.
This time the Party has lost its position as a radical party and the core of the party is weak. It could die a quiet death - rather like the Liberals in the 20’s. The Liberals have a good chance of filling the vacuum on the left and so getting a shot at office. 10 years is probably too short a time period
Mind you it would help if they could give Vince Cable some ant-ageing pills, he was on sparkling form this evening on the 10% tax, shame he is unlikeley to be around front line politics for 10 - 15 years.
Boris very strong on taking Ken to task over misleading statements. Ken very good on detail.
83 - seanT, political parties shouldn’t be judged solely on whether they pander to your xenophobic obsession with undermining the institutions of the European Union.
Will Ken take a seat in the Lords!?
Well I’m feeling increasingly relaxed about my betting position on Boris.
Now here’s a stupid, off the wall suggestion. Could Boris have offered Ken a position in his administration? Special adviser? Ken’s body language towards Boris is quite positive, as was Ken’s position towards Boris on Channel 4 News.
Daft suggestion but just thought I’d mention it.
Is Paddick on speed?
Boris just said one of the best things EVER - “everone in this room is someone of dubious morals” - and then Paddick says “speak for yourself” like an absolute idiot. I hate, hate, hate Paddick.
Boris and Ken are such witty, likeable people (politically I think one’s good and t’other isn’t). Paddick is just a nasty little man out of his intellectual depth.
Not watching QT. Hope, for God’s sake, the standard of debate is higher than it is here tonight.
108-No its noy
Right, to hell with it.
I might give Boris my second pref (after giving my first to Ken) just to cover the eventuality that somehow Ken’s vote collapses so much that Paddick comes second.
Dimbleby has put Boris on the spot, and now done the same to Paddick. I suppose he did it earlier with Ken on the Jewish issue, but slightly imbalanced there. Not Boris’ best moment. Paddick just getting worse …
Paddick attacks both the others for their moral behaviour!
A true Lib Dem in action.
Yes, watch KL suffer on olympic $$$$$$$$$$$$$$.
Boris is not as good as some cheerleaders here are making out but he’s not shot himself in the foot.
He’s won this election.
I’m not sure Paddick is as hateful as some are suggesting either and I quite like this losing fairly gracefully version of Ken. He seems so much more likeable now he knows his career is over.
99. I agree with you YS, but you’re not technically right on the 1945 election: the Liberals won 9% of the vote, and Communists, Common Wealth and others won another few percent. It wasn’t till the 1950s that Labour and the Tories won 98% between them.
Paddick has lost the plot if he thinks saying “Boris lies to his family” is any kind of way to behave in a political debate…
106. I think you need a beer.
Have you noticed how Ken is ‘the mayor’ or Ken Livingston. Paddick is Brian Paddock.
Everyone including both the other candidates call BJ ‘Boris’
Ken is unexpectedly poor. Lame jokes. I get the feeling he can’t quite be arsed any more. He doesn’t mind that much if he loses.
Fatal. He’s lost the hunger.
100. An interesting answer from a Lib Dem! Ta! Yes, that is surely the way ahead: you are at heart a lefty party and Britain only has room for one lefty party. But to do that - to supplant Labour - you have to start acting more ruthlessly. e.g. over Europe.
I feel you lack, like Ken, the hunger.
I agree with others. Paddick very poor.
boris is home and hosed. the olympic question settles it.
110. Interesting possibility (Ken not getting into the second round), but sadly, I just can’t see it happening. Apart from a collapse in the Labour vote, it would require a sudden increase in the popularity of Brian Paddick, and judging from tonight’s comments there’s no prospect of that.
Paddick’s attack on morality looked bizarre. Ken in trouble on the Olympics.
Re: 83 - Strange, as a liberal, I respect your right to insult and abuse anyone who doesn’t disagree with you.
Doesn’t mean I have to agree with you. I’m not going to bother to trade insults with you. Most of what you do and say is a chimera I believe. I suspect you are a middle-class suburban nobody who wishes he had led a more interesting life and has invented this ludicrous persona in order to convince us he is someone of significance while of course trawling the backstreet bars of Bangkok (apparently).
UKIP would welcome you with open arms, the English Democrats would hang on your every words. In the real world, we’ve more important things to do.
Good night, seanT or Tom Knox or should that be sawadee
Just in from bar billiards so missed the first part of QT , clearly from the posts on here Paddick is wiping the floor with them , quick check on Betfair yes Paddicks price coming down noone betting on Ken or Boris .
I’m sorry, all the anti-Paddick comments on this thread are really irritating me.
I think he’s doing quite well. He’s having to butt in and generally be a bit rude to get attention, but he’s got quite a lot of good points.
Boris is doing well. Ken is on loop.
LOL Mark Senior; maybe Paddick will surge into double figures?
124 - It is easily the debate when Paddick has been most vocal. But why anyone would put money on him to win is utterly beyond me.
124
Yes mark, 74/1. Bet your mortgage on the thug loser.
Mark Senior: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
123. lol. I’m treating that as a compliment to my creativity.
Ken has definitely lost it. He just looks… slightly old. I almost feel sorry for him. He looks like a great heavyweight champion who has just realised his new opponent is simply younger, bigger, tougher… and hungrier.
He’s still got the moves. He can play rope-a-dope. But the conviction and self-belief has gone.
Those people planning on betting on anyone other than Ken or Boris must have some strange compulsion to throw money to worthy causes such as Shadsy’s bonus.
Al. He is having to push his way in. Sometimes he oversteps the mark because he seems to lack a sense of humour. But if he didn’t stick his elbows out he wouldn’t get any pudding.
Paddick even terrible on crime, which as a former copper he should have ben strong on.
Pathetic.
Boris streets ahead so far.
I think Paddick is doing very well - dont know what all the anti-Brian spin is about tonight.
Ken reasonably good too.
Paddick not really answering questions and tying himself in knots. I know some senior LibDems have questioned his committment to their party, but clearly on tonight’s performance he is a LibDem through and through.
This reminds me of Blind Date.
‘iain blair has been very obliging to the labour party’ shocking comment on the government, the labour party has corrupted every facet of public life.
Enjoyed Paddick’s frankness about Sir Ian Blair, however.
136. Genius, and on May 1st the screen rolls back…
124. You missed him at his most obnoxous. Really was ghastly. He’s hectoring and unpleasant. Looks like he has no sense of humour whatsoever, which is what I thought when I knew him some years ago.
Boris doing much better.
Ken always looks laid back and has that ‘I don’t care’ impression. It’s his laconic style which is one of the reasons he appears so likeable and draws people in who would otherwise despise his politics.
This race ain’t over by a long shot. But in general I’d say Boris has started to impress me much more after a nervy opening.
Why has Paddick fluffed crime? Boris has shone on this subject.
135 I don’t really know what you hope to achieve by making partisan comments which anyone with eyes to watch and ears to listen to the debate can see are false .
I am genuinely surprised by Boris.
I have heard commentary on these debates before and he seems much better than his rprevious reviews.
I would be interested to know what Mike thinks - if he has managed to prize himself away from Limbert Optic and his flying saucers.
OT 21, 23, 39
“Land of Lincoln” is indeed the official nickname of the State of Illinois, which is also called “The Prairie State”.
Back in the old days, Illinoisans were known as “Suckers” which had I believe a very similar meaning as “Hoosiers” which is the famous nickname for residents of Indiana (Indianans). But as the American English developed, fewer and fewer folks in IL cared for the moniker; it came into disuse and has been forgotten.
Note that residents of Missouri used to be called “Pukes” which was never what you’d call a term of endearment.
Calling Obama a “Land of Lincolner” strikes me as pretty poor journalese.
However, there I belive a strong “Lincolnesque” component to the appeal and potential of Barack Obama.
Here are a few Lincoln-Obama parallels; what they are worth remains to be scene.
–from Illinois, though born elsewhere
–rose from humble background
–strained relationship with father
–beloved mother died young
–long and lean
–elected to Congress but only brief service
–defeated for Congress by entrenched incumbent
–emerged upon national stage thanks to major speeches that inspired millions of Americans
–at the start of the presidential nomination campaign, was a serious underdog against established politicos
Can you imagine being in a meeting with Paddick? Every few minutes he would randomly start shouting rubbish over whoever happened to be speaking.
Ken is being allowed a lot more time than the others to put his points across…
Wow Boris is really going strong now… On a roll…
OT. I see President Bartlett has endorsed Obama. I bet they had that one saved up for a rainy day. Got to be worth a few column inches.
145 lol I was thinking the same myself. Is he the last person on the planet you’d want to share a pint with?
(Actually I have had a drink with him and he was insufferably self-important and utterly obnoxious back then.)
Mark Senior, what do you drink on your bar-billiards evenings - pints of absinthe??
By the way, has anybody heard from Gabble? Somebody should check on him - and maybe relieve him of his belt and shoe laces…
….142. That’s irony, right.
I can’t help but detect a valedectory,’So long,folks’ tone in Ken’s voice-as if in his heart of hearts he knows the fat lady’s singing..
It is always lovely to see a smug member of the public crushed, as Boris has just done to the guy who challenged him over unreported crimes.
144: Obama announced his candidacy in Springfield, IL if I remember rightly too which, as well as being the state capital, was also home to Lincoln for many years.
152. Yup. Tis so.
117 - tosh. People call KL “Ken” just as much as BJ gets called by his first name.
152. Nah - he’s been like that ever since I first watched him 25 years ago. Don’t be sucked in by it - it’s his clever style.
153 - pity Ken wasn’t able to do it to that little toad who attacked him about the Standard reporter/concentration camp guard thing.
144 - should also have mentioned:
-religious in a unconventional way
-elitist impulses combined with democratic ideals
-attacked as soft on national defense (Lincoln voted against Mexican War in Congress, and was accused of failure to support the troops)
154 “Obama announced his candidacy in Springfield”
If Homer Simpson endorses Obama, he’s home and dry in November. (Hint to Obama: carry bags of donuts….)
Not on this show they haven’t.
Paddick to Boris ‘answer the question’ He thinks he’s Tosh Lions from The Bill but in reality Reg Hollis.
Paddick is like that annoying chap sat behind you on the bus who randomly chips in unwanted comments while you’re trying to have a conversation with your mate.
Unfortunately, no matter how much you ignore him, he keeps butting in with his nonsense until one or other of you gets off the bus.
I love Boris’s “emanating from the bowels of…”
157. Bollox. This simply isn’t the punchy, feisty, jokey, lairy, rebellious, inyerface Ken of ten years back.
Maybe he’s too old. Maybe he doesn’t like being the “establishment” candidate. But there’s no denying it: he’s lost his MoJo, to BoJo.
The party stooges in the audience are a bit tedious…
Here we go, cornflake gate.
144) SSI and others - thanks. I do agree that the moniker “Land Of Lincolner” is rather awkward for Obama. I don’t think it will last or find its way outside of the political media.
150. Marquee Mark: “By the way, has anybody heard from Gabble? Somebody should check on him - and maybe relieve him of his belt and shoe laces…”
Thanks for your concern - just watching the debate and catching up with the thread.
Just looked at Sun’s report on Tory poll lead - lifted from Telegraph even down to Anthony King’s “over 50 seat majority” - don’t they have any form of fact checker? Surely the most ineffectual sub editor would wonder how a 44% to 26% lead only results in a seat lead less than Brown has at present.
re 143. Yes - I have prized myself away from Lembit who actually is quite a nice guy if a bit full of himself. He ought to have been the Lib Dems mayoral candidate.
The difference between the Boris with Paxman a fortnight ago and tonight is enormous. After Newsnight I thought he was finished. He was simply unable to express himself in a compelling persuasive manner. e bumbled and seemed to have no ideas. Tonight he has been totally different.
Ken, as some have observed, seems almost resigned to defeat.
161 - they have, you’re wrong.
To show I have still got some left-wing bones left,I would NEVER agree to compuslory arbitration ,nor sign a no-stirke agreement.In her 1979 manifesto,Mrs Thatcher said ’striking should be a weapon of last resort,not first resort’ .I do not agre with wildcat striking for the fun of it,but as a last resort,one should have the right to withdraw one’s labour.
BJ-as likely victor,a friendly word of advice,wind up the RMT etc at your own peril
Food question - both Boris and Ken laughed. Paddick stonewall face. Horrible answer. Argh he’s awful.
How the hell does Boris get himself in such difficulty over a funny question?!
Fit and lean…eekkk.
What a dumb last question…….
165 “He’s lost his MoJo to BoJo.”
A perfect summary; thank you, Sean.
164 Moderate–ish union members could be offended by the dissing of their unions
173) The RMT need to be SMASHED. How dare they hold the poor of London to ransom for their own selfish agendas. Bob Crow is a disgraceful throwback to the dark days of demarcation and power cuts.
161. Oh no I’m not.
Wonder what Ken and Bojo were saying when they walked off?
Note at the end - Boris and Ken walking off together, with Ken putting his arm around Boris - they are getting on famously!
169. Don’t do it Gabble. Don’t.
We’re all here for you, if you want to talk.
Very sad to see Ken and this Paddick character doffing their caps to Comrade Crow at the RMT. I’d have the bloke gaoled!
My verdict:
Ken looked tired but did quite well in his usual laconic way. Still very much in it. 49%
Boris: bad start then much better. Shared the spoils. 49%
Paddick: just hideous. 2%
Roger.”YouGov polls move like yoyos”.Last three polls,Tory lead -YouGov 16,14,16-ICM 13,11,5.Do you ever get anything right? On your own comment about voters,the ICM figure of 5% is highly suspect,and the YouGov figures wholly consistent.
Is it just me or were all the party stooges in the audience Ken supporters; so many loaded comments from them!
In conclusion, I would say seeing Ronnie punch Sean was far more satisfying than that debate.
171. Just hope this one had the biggest audience.
Anyway according to Mark, Paddick won.
187. Only towards the end, it seemed. But they all had that self-righteous, smarmy socialism going. Just like Ken. Really gets under my skin.
ot
And whilst the Govt is in disarray, Godon knows what his prorities are.
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com
189 Well as per Betfair Boris lost .
187. No, but they were the rudest and the nastiest. Don’t think it did any good.
181 - Ken probably said to Boris something along the lines of “you did well”, because he did.
I am far more relaxed about Boris being mayor all of a sudden. It’s reminded me that Boris is very human and likeable. Although he won’t do great things for London like Ken has, he’ll probably do an OK job. And in any case, quaere whether Ken has it in him to do much more after 8 years in office and a bruising year.
That bit at the end when Ken put his arm round Boris smiling was actually rather endearing. Can’t possibly have thought the cameras were still on (can he?!)- they were walking off. God I hate the man’s politics but there’s something about him I find it difficult not to like! Boris did quite well actually I thought.
Ken did very well, a master of his brief but lacks a vision for the next 4 years.
Boris was extremely good and did well in conversational style but took a few blows from the audience.
Paddick came across very badly and I suddenly realise why his campaign has never really taken off.
193 - nonsense. Blinkered, you are. Where were these stooges? Ken got asked nasty questions too. Some people don’t like Boris (or, more likely, don’t like Tories) and that will come across if you expose him to a studio audience.
I hate the forced mirth on ‘This Week’.
I really don’t think Boris has been as strong as some of you seem to think. He was stroppy, grumpy and never showed the good-natured side that voters like.
I agree however with everyone who said Paddick was dreadful. Nasty, unlikeable behaviour.
Ken was very laid-back and good-humoured. I don’t think that’s a bad thing, at all. It will go down well with female voters, who don’t like being hectored.
190. yes the comments were very much in the Alex Hilton (recessmonkey) style. They think that they are being very clever and framing the debate well but in reality they look like smug pr!cks. BoJo did well not to have a go back at them and turn it on to Ken instead.
Overall i thought Boris did better than other nights, Ken was his consistent self and Paddick was quite entertaining (shut up Boris!)
I still think there will be some more stuff out between now and May 1st which is a bit of a tasty story
In fact, given the polls Brian Paddick did very well to be invited onto the programme!
Haven’t had chance to see tonights mayoral debate. But based upon comments, sure appears that Boris has had a good night. Which is likely just another nail in Red Ken’s coffin.
Boris has done amazingly well during the home stretch of this race. One sign is that he’s stuck to the master game plan crafted by the OzMan. Another is that he’s been improving his performance on the stump and esp. in debates. Plus he’s avoided gaffes and managed to appear serious and even boring at times. That’s a major achievement, methinks. Clearly his handler-in-chief and the rest of the team deserve credit. But so does Boris.
IF he does get elected, can only hope that he will demonstrate that his ability to focus on something besides his wine list and whoopie cushion for more than a few short weeks. Personally think he’s be another Jimmy Walker: entertaining, popular and a complete disaster in office.
But time will tell.
171. Well, he’ll have his book which will make a bit. A seat in the Lords if he wants it. The possibility of a late retirement in a Labour seat closer to an election. With his contacts books he won’t be short of consultancy work. Also as the olypics/7/11 mayor , while not quite guilliani, he’ll not be short of speaking work.
Its a better retirement than most.
Also, just to upset most people on here, if there is anyone in English politics that pull off a salmond and come back it would be Ken.
Why is Jodie Marsh on This Week? And why is she looking … quite fit?
191: That’s an outrage! The BBC employing Steve McClaren! I’m marching on TV Centre to demand my licence fee back.
192 - is it in the coins?
197.
‘193 - nonsense. Blinkered, you are’
Must be my beer googles. They do that you know.
204 Apparently her assets were drooping so she had them over-inflated.
160 LOL!!!
Note: we Pacific Northwesterners know that Homer Simpson and family are residents of Springfield, Oregon - not Illinois!
Should also note that there are cities named Springfields in Massachusetts, Ohio, Missouri; also smaller towns I’m sure in other states.
207 - well I just said Jodie Marsh looked quite fit, and the only thing I’ve drunk is ginger beer…
Paddick was better than I have seen him before, Boris was Boris, Ken was Ken. I sadly think voters are going to hold their noses and vote for Ken, Boris running services is too big an ask. You can’t suddenly move away from a career to presenting yourself as a buffon to running such an operation. Voters don’t like Ken but the alternative in the polling booth will be too much to ask.
Boris did OK, Ken probably came out as the winner overall. It won’t make much differance though, Ken’s going to lose and I think he’s resinged to that.
abbott as objectionable as ever….. cant wait for this rubbish to be ejected from parliament.
Still another Mayoral debate to come on SkyNews Monday 20:00
Most enjoyable…. the wife and I were in stitches for most of it, as were the audience.
What an odd creature Paddick is, tall and handsome and yet like Lorain Chase in the 70’s Campari adverts, he really shouldn’t open his mouth. Reminds me of that pompous twit from the Britas Empire.
Boris, well what can one say? Rants like a Gatling gun at full tilt but the audience seemed to like him, lots of spontaneous clapping and cheers although I can’t think why.
Ken was a true statesman, calm, collected and resolute….The poor man is toast gawd bless him.
It is so good to see Charles Kennedy back!
215 “Reminds me of that pompous twit from the Britas Empire.”
Close - same guy, but he’s really Rimmer in Red Dwarf!
Meanwhile, out in the Provinces, have there been any Local Council By Election Results declared yet?
Paddick, what a twerp. Truly horrible.
216 “It is so good to see Charles Kennedy back!”
Why - looking to stab it again?
220 - No, I just like him.
Will Andrew Rawnsley retire or explode first?
Hinckley and Bosworth DC Hinckley Castle LibDem hold
LibDem 802 BNP 264 Con 226 Lab 116
2007 result LibDen 1093/1076 Con 405/388 Lab 133/131
Conservative performance in the real world does not match Yougov .
**MESSAGE TO THE BORIS LAYER ON BETFAIR**
trying to move his price out post debate in some sad attempt to fram the debate as a Ken “win”.
I’ve got deep pockets, put up some proper money, let’s trade.
223. Thank you, Mark Senior. Are there any more, or can I go to bed now?
Do you think Diane and Michael ever knocked boots?
225 Safe Conservative seat in Dover to come
224 So why do you want to manipulate the Betfair market to appear that Boris won .
223 Another of those DC seats in the Midlands where the introduction of a BNP candidate seems to be badly hurting the Tories. Not sure if it will apply in the larger context of a Parliamentary seat in a GE, but something the Tories have to watch out for nonetheless.
Diane Abbott almost talking of Brown in the past tense on This Week.
It was the first one of these I watched. I thought Paddick did rather well - but then I might say that mightn’t I?
Kennedy is so much better than what came after. His alcohol problem was as tragic for the Lib Dems as for himself.
Well at least it explains why there is lack of lib dem literature in the London elections, all Lib Dems were busy in Hinckley Castle. I still have not had any literature from any party except four from the Conservatives and the booklet sent by London elect. Although to be fair, I cant tell you the last time a Focus came through my door. My mother lives in Simon Hughes constituency and she has not had any either !
228) I want the manipulator’s money, I am not the manipulator.
232 - Kennedy is really good on This Week.
144 SSI re Lincoln Obama parralels
I suppose that makes Hillary into Stephen Douglas
- both lawyers
- known as scrappy fighters
- married Southerners
- strongly supported by Catholics
then shortly you could add one of
- lost election they were expected to win against someone from Illinois or
- became nominee in a convention fight and split the Democratic Party
209. Rubbish! Springfield, Oregon doesn’t have a Shelbyville nearby. Homer lives right here in Illinois!
232. Not sure I agree. Kennedy looks like what he is: the charmingly affable semi-alky who couldn’t quite kick the bottle for politics.
Bless him, but.. well..
No, the Lib Dem Leader Gone Missing is Vince ‘the Cable’ Cable. The wry and humane Cable would be such a superb contrast with the dourly useless Brown and the foppishly taunting Cameron.
Instead they’ve got “Clegg”. Oh dear.
223 “Conservative performance in the real world does not match Yougov.”
Seem to remember people saying similar things this time last year before the locals… and then the Cons made huge gains on election day. I’d say local by elections are about as representative of real results as House of Commons by elections - they demonstrate anti-government sentiment, but not a lot else.
I think the most telling moment of the whole Question Time thing was when Ken Livingstone was practically pleading with Paddick to come put and support him on second preferences. For a politician of Ken’s stature to be begging the Lib-Dems for support must hurt and be very humiliating for Ken.
What is wrong with me tonight. First I think Boris is OK and now I’m finding Jodie Marsh attractive.
Oh - I don’t now she’s stood up. She looks ridiculous.
It does seem that Team Boris have out campaigned the others when it comes to leaflet distribution and door knocking. Does the local touch count in such a big Mayoral contest?
241) LOL Stonch… its only a relative judgement vs Diane Abbott…
No - young people are not into people like you Ms. Marsh. You are widely despised.
240 - I agree. I have been predicting for almost two weeks that Ken was losing support. Anyone who produces a private poll showing that they are just 1% ahead, and then does not publish another is telling us that even his own polling shows that he is behind. It is well known that Ken has been using a private polling company for months. His revelation in today’s Evening Standard that he might be losing says it all.
223. Both Lib-Dem’s and Tories see their vote drastically reduced in that contest, and support peels off to the BNP. Its a classic local, by election result and what can you read into it? BNP does well in such circumstances? Anything else? I don’t think so.
243 - the local touch might add a few to the local assembly member election, but for the Mayor, I doubt it. One thing that all three London Elections have proved, unless you are a name, already known, forget it. One day, Brian Paddick, might agree with me on that one.
179 (Going back a little while
) Yeah,I agree Bob Crow is a bit if a dinosaur,BUT:
(a)With many friends who work in the Bournemouth/Poole area (my home) working in public transport
(b)Their enjoying,compard to many very good pay,terms,conditions-who far,far more SHOULD and COULD enjoy had my country not gone so free-market insane in the 1980s/90s
It is resassuring to know at least one ‘dinasour’ is alive and well. The indignity,disgraceful working conditions of millions of poorer people make the row over the 10p rate look like a hurricane in a very small teacup,IMHO (In other words,I plead guilty to being a bit of a dinasour myself,a sort of latter day old-school Labourite who still believes in Keir Hardie’s ideals-and I find myself agreeing with 90% of mal 19 ken’s posts
OT - Lincoln/Obama
The reason for dwelling on this topic, is that I think it does have have an impact - hard to quantify but nevertheless of some significance - upon the 2008 presidential race.
Because the legend of Abraham Lincoln is hardwired into the psyche of virtually every American. Little 5-year old kids might be hard pressed to tell you the name of the current President. But they’s heard about Abe Lincoln; show them a picture of a stove-pipe hat, and they’ll get the allusion immediately.
Plus there is something for just about everyone in Lincoln:
–for Black he was the man who freed the slaves
–for Whites outside the South he was a hero who upheld the Union
–for Southern Whites he was a worthy opponent, who favored a “soft” peace for former Confederates, in opposition to the Radicals who pushed Reconstruction
–for Republicans he is the founding father of the GOP
–for Democrats he was a great freedom fighter
For everyone, Lincoln is above all our first and greatest Martyr President. Like Franklin Roosevelt, he was struck down at the end of a terrible, epic war just as victory of tremendous national and international consequence was dawning.
“Oh Captain, My Captain!”
Lincoln is more of an icon than FDR and JFK, our modern great presidential martry, because his politics & policies are much less controversial in the context of the 21st century. Yet part of the impact of the legacy of Roosevelt and Kennedy is their own connection to the Lincoln mythology.
The extend of the linkage between Lincoln and Obama remains to be seen. But clearly the potential is there, strongly aided by two factors: 1) Illinois and 2) long & lean
But do NOT expect Obama to grow a beard after the campaign! Of course, there was an 1860 equivilant to the “Obama Girl”, a little girl who wrote to Lincoln during the campaign and suggested that he grow some whiskers; he wrote back, and after his election he took her advice!
246. I noticed at the very start of the debate Ken said about the “strange” polls the Evening Standard have been running, once again implying by association that YouGov are somehow biased in favour of the Tories. I hope, if Ken is defeated this time next week, that he and the Labour Party will apologise to YouGov for the disgraceful way they have smeared a polling group that as far as I can tell, are just doing their job in an honest way.
I’m not holding my breath, though.
249 Disturingly,I felt Boris Johnson came across as reasonable,moderate and left me with the feeling it was not the end of the world in the (admittedly likely) event that on Friday 2nd May he is elected London major
237 - But out her on the West Coast, we say that “Shelbyville” is really Eugene. That the “S” word was used to pull the wool over the eyes of gullible Midwesterners, Englishmen, etc.
247 - The BNP result in London will be very interesting. Most people believe that they will get at least one Assembly Member on from the top up list.
251 - it is an old ken tactic, if you dont agree with Ken, he will smear you. Ceasusecu from Romania was the same. But with Ken you dont disappear during the night.
Anyone who watched the Simpsons should that they were described once as a North Kentuckian family.
As a Conservative, I will not be voting for Boris - I simply cannot take him seriously.
236 - You are right on the money.
Also note that Stephen Douglas played the race card very heavily in 1858. Spent most of his time in the Lincoln-Douglas debates (of course he saw it the other way around!) spewing the “N” word and telling voters that his “Black Republican” opponent was a proponent of race mixing.
Thought Boris was better, quite a lot less waffle, but he is still prone to some awkward moments eg the “classical economic theory” moment when discussing immigration. Thought he might come out with neoclassical endogeneous growth theory, aping a past Balls up!
223 - I well remember arguing incorrectly before 1997 that the Tories were doing much better in local by elections than the polls showed, and Labour doing much worse. But think things through here. Given that the Tories now have the most council seats, and that a lot of council by-elections come up in circumstances which are not favourable to the defender eg resignation of previous councillor on poor terms, fraud, broke rules here or there, then as a consequence the defending party isn’t going to be doing very well.
Would like to see the results for by elections only where reason for it was the death of the previous councillor - I think these contests when taken in aggregate would be far more reliable. Even better to take the results of next weeks local elections - these will present a much better picture.
257 I take it you are happy with Ken and 150% increase in the London Council Tax.
257. Who will you vote for?
Cycling home tonight I saw new Boris posters up in Muswell Hill - not seen that in years….
236 - Other Hillary Clinton-Stephen Douglas Parallels:
–short stature
–pants wearers
–Cook County, IL (Hillary raised their, Douglas buried there)
–controversial failed policy (Douglas: Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1850s; Hillary: national health care reform of 1990s)
253. Except when Lisa points to where Springfield is on a map of the USA, it’s clearly somewhere in the middle of the country.
259. What Mark Senior doesn’t say is that when you look at the percentages of these local by elections week after week after week, rather than just individual seats as Mark does, it actually shows on average the Tories have a big lead over Labour and are set to make gains in Labour heartlands next week.
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/3/26/81657/7150
265 - I have no idea what a grumfuttock is, but I’m pretty sure it looks like mark senior.
Bad news matey, tonight mark you will fall asleep, no doubt counting Tory losses……..but in the morning the poll results will be the same. Sleep tight.
263 In fairness should also add:
–US Senators with significant national political impact
–skilled politicians and policymakers
–fierce battlers who never backed down from a fight
Note that in the final weeks of the 1860 presidential campaign, when it was obvious that Lincoln was going to be elected, with virtually zero votes from the South which was on the brink of secession, Douglas toured Dixie. Pleading not for votes but for national unity regardless of the election outcome. A brave thing.
Had a look round Btfair - their Leaders at Next Election market is thoroughly weird. You can still bet or lay the possibility that the next leaders will be Cameron, Brown and…Campbell! OK, you have to tie up lots of money to lay at 34-1, but still. You cannot bet on the possibility that Clegg will be leader, because Clegg is not mentioned at all. Essentially I think they put it up, got sonme bets, abnd have now forgotten about it.
264 - Aw, you need new glasses, oh great Sophist-icate!
What we need is Professor Higgins to evaluate the regional dialetics of Homer, Marge, Bart, Lisa & other characters.
To my ear, they sound more like the eclectic mix of accents so typical of the PacNW, and NOT the standard Midwestern that you would expect from central IL.
Just back from Hinckley election count, 18.8% and 2nd place for the BNP. Vote well above target of 12% and 3rd place tories did not look too pleased with the result. Lib Dems where by far the best campaign wise although they were 10% down but still polled 57% in a real strong Liberal ward. Labour core vote held strong but just a distance last again. This vote will boost the BNP for the last week effort all over the country. a big big 2nd place tonight for the BNP
Mrs Dale getting married! Widdecombe will not attend ceremony.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=561812&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=230
268 - Can we still get a bet on Campbell-Bannerman or Bonar-Law? Or Pitt the Elder? (very appropos after the PA primary!)
Have just seen the debate on iPlayer.
1. Ken. 8/10 for presentation and detail but very backward looking. little forward looking narritive. I think he’s seen bad internal polling. But isuspect his style will play with women, core voters and ethnics.
2. Boris. 6/10. much better than I have seen him but still abit bumbling.
3. Paddick. 3/10 Dear God. he had the centre podium and was the tallest ergo had automatic command of the screen. Why then try and elbow in with scrappy, crappy interjections. The churchill reference and the bit about Boris lying to his family were toe curling.
However none were as bad as the audience who seemed stuffed with party hacks. I doubt many floating voters will have been watching.
Is Mark Senior real?
For those so inclined, there is a discussion of the matter here:
http://snpp.com/guides/springfield.list.html
I got through about three paragraphs before I realised how long it was and got bored.
Ken is still the consummate politician although he gives the impression of not being that bothered anymore. Boris at times did come across as amateurish and evasive as a member of the audience pointed out and had a bad final quarter of an hour. As a Lib Dem myself Paddick puzzles me - at his best he is candid and astute. However the poster who said he reminds him of Gordon Brittas unfortunately isn’t too far off the mark. Oh for a Susan Kramer or a Lynn Featherstone this time.
Overall I don’t think the result will be affected much by the programme tonight.
256 - Ah, but Americans are a very mobile people. I myself have lived in seven states in my time, despite having rooted in WA for the past two decades.
The Lincolns ended up moving from Kentucky to Illinois. The Simpsons may have done the same . . . then kept heading west until they hit the Pacific . . .
276 - make that eight states (forgot IL!) and that’s only counting places I resided for three months minimum.
274 - touché
OT. we are 48 hours on and I can’t find any repudiation anywhere that Hills has really raised $10m since Tuesday breaking the previous record by Ron Paul who raised $6m in 24 hours on line. Also they are still unrefuted saying 50k of the 60k donors are new. If true this is astonishing and signifigant. Do better informed posters have a view?
Round up the usual suspects . . .
Springfield, Alabama x4
Springfield, Arkansas x2
Springfield, California
Springfield, Colorado
Springfield, Florida x2
Springfield, Georgia x9
Springfield, Idaho
Springfield, Iowa
Springfield, Illinois
Springfield, Indiana x2
Springfield, Kentucky
Springfield, Louisiana
Springfield, Massachusetts
Springfield, Maryland x4
Springfield, Maine
Springfield, Michigan x2
Springfield, Minnesota
Springfield, Missouri
Springfield, Mississippi
Springfield, North Carolina x4
Springfield, Nebraska
Springfield, New Hampshire
Springfield, New Jersey x2
Springfield, New York
Springfield, Ohio
Springfield, Oregon
Springfield, Pennsylvania x2
Springfield, South Carolina x3
Springfield, South Dakota
Springfield, Tennessee x2
Springfield, Texas x3
Springfield, Virginia x8
Springfield, Virgin Islands
Springfield, Vermont
Springfield, Wisconsin
Springfield, West Virginia
279 - I’m guessing she did it. But am also guessing there was a certain element of orchestration to “salt the mine” by requesting that some big checks come in on that particular day. This is just speculation; if it happened that way certainly be kosher.
Two questions: how much will Obama raise over the next months? He does have a larger donor pool, with a higher proportion (think this is true) yet to hit the individual contributor limit.
Also, how much does the money really matter? Obama outspent Hillary big time in Ohio, Texas and PA; it certainly was no magic bullet.
281. I just wondered if its true if it was a straw in the zeitgeist? I must say i was a bit cynical, after all $10m is a rather round number but having really looked for it can’t find even the anti hillary sites challenging it.
In fact generally have over dosed on US outlets the last 24 hours i can’t believe what good coverage shes got out of it.
- its a 10% win even though it wasn’t quite
- loads of “can obama win?” articles
- shed loads on the demographics he can’t seem to crack
- a sense of mementum for her that i thought it would take 15% plus to get.
I notice almost total silence on the Lib Dem blogosphere about the QT debate. A sure sign everyone thinks Paddick Bombed.
OT. any news of the Dunwoody funeral or the writ?
282 Yet just like clockwork, Bill has stepped in once again to hog the spotlight with his finger-waging about Obama playing the Caucasian card.
Am guessing she may be wondering, why hubby couldn’t have choked himself on a Big Mac circa 1997?
166 Peter2 on Gore thread.
You probably won’t read this here so I’ll repost it.
Up here in ND there is a big thing going for Obama. The whole of the Congressional Delegation is Democrat, and very popular too.
I think McCain will win but not by much and he’ll have to spend money to do so, and he isn’t too flushed. Also Republicans have been taking some of the Mid-Western states for granted and their organisation is poor.
I am taking it for granted that Barack Obama will be the nominee; its the math.
Malcolm
Hi People of the U.K.
My name is The Man.
And — since I have 4000$ on Boris — average 1.66 on Betfair.com –
I wanna Know how Boris — my horse, Go Boy, Go! — did in the Debate tonight?
– Shall I raise, or shall I fold?
Her campaign has improved since he was shut in a cupboard post SC. If she’d reigned him and mark penn in earlier she’d have it wrapped up by now. I’d always wondered how a public rebuke to him might play? On the one hand it would assert her independence - although that doesn’t seem to have been a big issue. On the other it would reinforce the fish wife negatives.
286 - Global food shortage must be good news for ND farmers? Though gas price obviously is a killer.
Malcolm, are you in farmland (generally east of the Missouri = “fast time”) or in ranchland (usually west of the river = “slow time”)?
Bizarre debate.
Paddick, whilst indulging the odd dalliance with likeability, came across largely as an odious twerp. By arrogantly interjecting whenever he felt one of his opponents was waffling evasively he was clearly trying to align himself with the anti-politician vibe exuded by the audience, yet he was just as guilty (if not more so) of vacillating when it came down to blunt questioning. When he was good he was bearable, when he was bad he was bloody awful. He might still scrape my second preference vote…just. Also notable that, whilst the credits rolled, Ken and Boris walked off together with Ken patting Bojo on the back…Paddick just stayed onstage soaking up applause and looking vomit-inducingly smug.
Livingstone came across as he often does in such forums - a consumate politician, yet an imminently likeable one. On the basis of Newsnight (and Newsnight only) I’d probably vote for him - however, having had to put up with the objectionable prat for 8 years I’d rather vote BNP. He spent the whole time either hooting about his achievements as Mayor, or attempting to belittle Johnson. Absolutely no mention of what he intends to do if re-elected, and offering to deliver more of the same will not provoke endorsement in anyone but his core supporters. Additionally, his admission that the Olympic bid was partly a hoodwinking excercise designed to secure funding for the rejuvenation of the flea bitten East End will do him no favours with richer voters, as well as under-privileged people in other areas of London.
Johnson was all over the shop. When he was stumbling verbosely over answers I prayed to any number of the Gods I didn’t believe in that he’d spontaneously combust or be afforded somesuch other instantaneous ticket to Hades, because at its worst it was sphincter tighteningly bad. However, when he was on the ball, he impressed me, and I daresay portions of the audience who had come there expressly to stick the knife in to him were slightly taken aback by his competency.
Despite all this rambling, I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that this will have absolutely zero effect on the end result, and I think Boris will win.
287. You’d be better off looking at the polls rather than the debate. very few people watched it, much less anyone who hadn’t made there mind up.
288 - yeah but he keeps going walkabout and just can’t help himself from time to time. Interesting, his erruptions seem to coincide with a major campaign moment. Kind of like a little kid who times his tantrums for maximum effect.
290. you should post more often.
Malcolm’s Laws of watching debates;
If one gets overtly angry with an opponent then he is doing well.
If one gets overtly angry with one’s candidate then he is doing badly.
If one calls it a draw then one’s own candidate has lost badly.
If one draws attention to physical characteristics of one’s opponent then one is terribly worried about the outcome.
If one falls asleep during the debate then one is totally normal.
Malcolm
294 - In addition, if you make your mind up on the basis of a TV debate you are unique.
292. Can’t he go off and do something? Would the governor appoint him the vacant Senate seat if she won unlikely though that now looks?
289 SSI
If this is fast time then I am unconscious! We are south of Jamestown, and everyone in our tiny city is either a farmer or works in occupations that service farming. Our land is not as good quality as the Red River Valley, but a lot better than the west of the state. As well as the usual cash crops we have cattle, bison and elk farms and lots of deer and water fowl.
When I die I want to go to heaven, as long as it looks like North Dakota.
Malcolm
292 - On the other hand, Bill Clinton has been touring the minor markets, small towns and rural counties. Which is very smart strategy on several levels. Keeps him out of the national limelight, but really gets the local Dems revved up in places that are allergic to Obama on several levels.
Plenty of boondocks & backwaters in Indiana and North Carolina that 99.99% of pbers or anyone else have never heard of. But these people are out there, they’ve got just as much of a stake in this election as anyone else, and while scattered collectively they add up to a significant fraction of the likely voters in both the Hoosier and Tarheel States.
298. I looked at the county map of Penn and it seemed to reflect that. Will he have the same effect with supers one to one in Hotel rooms in Denver? or if we are playing fantasy politics pledged delegates when they are freed on the second ballot?
It is 2am in the morning after all.
223 & 227 The “safe Conservative seat in Dover” (Little Stour and Ashton) was only gained from the Lib Dems in a 2006 by-election, so here the Conservative performance in the real world does match YouGov!