PB’s traffic hits new records
April 29th, 2008
Monday saw a massive 115,794 page down-loads
I’ve just got the traffic figures for the site for yesterday when there were 115,794 separate page downloads - only the second time we have broken through the 100k mark. The last time was that Saturday in October when Gordon called off the election.
Also April has already become the site’s busiest ever month even though there is still a day and a bit to go. Total page down-loads are 1,667,234 which exceeds the previous record of 1.54m last October.
A year ago our monthly traffic was about 600,000 page views and it took us until September to get beyond the 750k mark.
Thanks to my son Robert for creating the technical infrastructure that’s enable us to cope with the traffic. Thanks to you all for supporting the site.
No other UK political blog gets traffic like we do.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Have you got a tally of daily posts? Think last two days’ ahve been way over 1000!
Congrats!!!
And, in the time-honoured tradition of Britain’s best political blog, almost immediately offtopic, and reposted from a previous thread:
513. I wrote this piece, about my experience of the extreme Mormons, a week or so back:
http://tinyurl.com/6flj8r
Most of the “abused kids” mentioned in that piece were “lost boys” expelled from Colorado City
A million peebeers are waiting to meet Don
Heh, Mike, well done. Heard you on the wireless today thought you might get a lift on traffic.
Many thanks for a great site (fawn, fawn, OBN).
Wait till Thursday night!!!!!
1000 posts an hour!!!!!!!!!
2 SeanT - think it was that piece that set me off googling. didn’t notice it was you
4. The wireless. Now there’s a word you don’t hear very often now EDW.
Bookies should be opening up Crewe soon as the writ has been served. That will be an interesting price up.
Newsnight Interview with Shadow Minister Eric Pickles really is a fortaste of the BBC response, no matter what Thursday’s results.
No Cllrs in <>>
Only 40% of the vote
Not as good as Labour in, say, 1995
I thought Eric did very well, but we need to push that this set of elections is mainly in Labour’s heartlands - they are strongest in this round.
I see Boris has traded as low as 1.36 on BF and now eased to 1.41, have been out watching horrid Man Utd at the pub. Was there a poll or is the Hoey hoedown hitting home?
Boris, yehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
Fantastic Mike. Well done!
8. Was I alone in detecting an odd sexual frisson between Eric Pickles and that hot babe from Newsnight*?
*memo to self: get out more
Well done Mike and richly deserved. I’d imagine that Thursday night is odds on for a new record though.
It makes me yearn after my old blog: Independence. I used to love getting more visitors than my rival Scottish political blogs. I was probably one of Mike’s earlier visitors who still posts here. Not hard to understand why it is so popular. Well done. You deserve it.
8. I thought is was a terrible hectoring interview with the usual Labour spin. 3 Northern cities keep being bought up . What about places in the South Labour have never won. Then Cameron’s background which has never been raised on the doorstep with me in 2 years. Very poor.
11. Just presented a terrible image in my mind Sean. Prescott all over again
7 Is Labour moving writ before funeral in hope that if either Conservatives or Lib Dems make a move they will get tarred as being disrespectful - so cutting any campaigning down even further.
Well done, Mike.
Does this mean you can start paying Robert more?
Pickles must eat even more take aways than Milord Rennard.
16. I expect so. Looks like another Brown wrongfooting move. Will hopefully backfire as it’s very distasteful.
Oh and well done and thanks to Robert too.
Robert do you sometimes post here as robert? Mike might be able to clarify?
CNN currently analysing the latest chapter of Pastorgate and suggesting this gives Obama the opportunity to lance the Wright boil.
Congratulations, Mike. This really is a wonderful website. The articles are always first rate. My first read every morning - and at the moment we’re being treated to more than one piece a day. You’re really spoiling us. Thanks to all who make this site what it is.
Pickles reminds me a bit of Prezza.
Anyway, congrats Mike. Just shows how much interest this Mayoral election is creating.
Congratulations Mike.
I don’t often post, but I’m one of thousands who visit every day and really appreciate this site.
The big question is: does Mike at last make a nice fat profit? If so - good. He deserves to. Must take a lot of work. Those 4am articles haven’t gone unnoticed.
But if he doesn’t - why the hell not?
The quality of insight on here is, I’d say, now in advance of the average news and political journalism in broadsheets. Especially rags like the Guardian. And the commentary is more mixed, lively, amiable and amusing. Except when we get on to Europe, obv.
PS I’m not *that* Robert BTW.
(IIRC.)
Congratulations, boss!
Question: how will the Loonies (the Offical ones that is) and Mebyon Kernow do in the local elections?
20 For those of us who think Obama remains the very firm favourite to become the next POTUS, Spreadfair’s price of 14.4 on their 25-10-0 index looks attractive - and there’s plenty of it.
This equates to winning odds of 2.4/1. Of course, should Hillary prevail, one is deep in the doo-doo.
14. woody662. I agree the interviewing tone was very poor. Unnecessarily aggressive, a la Paxo.
Talking of Paxo.It looks increasingly likely that the Sages of PBC do indeed know their onions, with Ken the one in danger of a stuffing as the money moves towards Boris.
Meant to say well done Mike - a great site.
O/T Apparently the rise in car tax rates will hit more cars than expected - the previous policy of not imposing higher rates on cars bought before the variable tax rates were introduced (2006) has been dropped and will now apply to all cars up to 2001. So motorists will be unpleasantly surprised next April and reminded again in April 2010.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3842848.ece
BTW, who opened the window, can anyone smell the fresh air?
Wm Hill seem to have stopped all London Mayor betting. They’re still up at Ladbrokes.
31. Why would they do that?
31 Sidney goes to bed early, but I couldn’t get any US markets on Ladbrokes’ site as of an hour ago.
HOW BAD IS IT NOW FOR OBAMA?
Bad enough to convince Rush Limbaugh to call a pause of ‘Operation Chaos’ :
Here
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22996214#24318982
is a video explaining the goal of the Operation: to create riots in the Denver Convention in order to polarize enough the Democratic that it will it lose to McCain :
32 “Why would they do that?”
Well, even Bookies need to sleep!
Re “lost boys” here is an interesting example of the opposite.
Years ago had a friend who live in northern Ohio in an county outside Cleveland that was dominated by affluent suburbanites, but also had considerable rural area. This included a sizeable Mennonite settlement.
He told me that it was common to see young Mennonite men 18-22 or thereabouts hanging out a taverns, drinking beer and getting into fights. They stood out because of their dress code.
Here was the deal: these guys quit school when they were 16. Before and certainly afte that, they spent long hours working on the farm. BUT they were also allowed - indeed encouraged - to sow some wild oats. Thus the bars.
However, after several years of this, the community made it clear that they were approaching the crossroads of life. Either get married and settle down (including no more bars) or hit the road.
Many stayed. Many left. Thus social cohesion was maintained, and the number of households (somewhat) regulated.
Congratulations Mike
Apart from the statistics I think in terms of quality of blogs you are convincingly one of the top three (probably two) politically orientated bloggers. In most respects, you deserve to be number one but are suffering from a perceived bias towards the Lib Dems. Over the last year, you have run a number of articles regarding Brown’s and Cameron’s likely successors but we have so far seen little regarding Clegg’s. This has become clearer over the last few days when I believe you have not commented on Vince Cable’s criticisms of his party. If you want to be recognised as the number one, you have to forget party loyalty and be ahead of the game. If the results are not good for the Lib Dems on Thursday, Vince may give even more hints he is dissatisfied and before long his desire to take over the leadership may be big news but with all your valuable insights, you should have opened up the story!
36 - If I remember rightly, there was a rather similar social dynamic discribed re: Midi peasantry in the sociological classic “Village in the Vaucluse”
11: ‘Was I alone in detecting an odd sexual frisson between Eric Pickles and that hot babe from Newsnight*?’
Strange you should say that. When she first walked over I had the bizarre thought that she was about to conduct the entire interview sitting on his lap.
Mike, anyone - is it time to start placing a few “savers” on Hillary for the Dem nomination, whilst she’s still a decent price?
39 Who the hell was this female interviewer? - From the descriptions, it couldn’t possibly have been the awful Wark.
39. Thank God for that. It’s not a nice feeling, thinking you are all on your tod, concocting ludicrous notions about the hidden erotic life of Eric Pickles.
Thankyou.
I still need to get out more.
34 - Only riot Rush is likely to initiate, is in baggage claim when he finds out that the airline lost his medicine chest!
40
I had a small one on her today. Have you seen the price move on Intrade? Obama down 5.8 for nom.
73.8 76.7 -5.8
41 - The awful Emily Maitliss, I think.
35 Anthony Wells mentioned an eve of poll YouGov - possibly that’s around being finalised for tomorrow’s Standard?
If so - where is the Don?
34 - I’m going out on a limb here but are you possibly a new Sacha Baron Cohen persona? It’s the ‘yeah baby’s’ and ‘mista’s’ which give one pause.
45: ‘The awful Emily Maitliss, I think.’
Yes, familiar to us London/South Easterners as presenting the local news slot a few years ago. Over promoted I feel.
Re previous posts with reports that London cabbies don’t like Ken.
Given the congestion charge, isn’t that a bit like saying that turkey’s aren’t fond of Thanksgiving?
Of course all the turkey’s can do is gobble!
45. Awful? Awful?? More like Super Sexy, in that sulky Jewish way. Also speaks five languages, including Mandarin.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Maitlis
“Married to a banker” it says. Why are they always married to bankers? Never sex memoirists?
*sigh*
SUSA POLL
– In Pennsylvania, SUSA had Hillary 50, Obama 44; results: 54.6% to 45.4%.
–In Ohio, Hillary 54, Obama 44; results: 54.2% to 44.1%.
–In Texas, Obama 49, Clinton 48; results: Clinton 50.9% to 47.4%.
They were not too far from the results.
NOW: They put Clinton +9 in Indiana, and Obama ONLY +5 in North Carolina.
If they are right, there is an important SHIFT toward Clinton.
42 “hidden erotic life of Eric Pickles” - think you’ve just found yer next writing project. The title is killer-diller.
Hmm - on that basis Hillary must be around 25ish, which equates to Betfair’s price of around 3/1.
53
No, she’s at 21, only! : http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134
50 - Incapable of multi-tasking?
51 - But don’t fire until you see the Wright in their eyes.
That is, may be prudent to wait & see if Obama can rid himself of his turbulent priest.
49
It’s nothing to do with the congestion charge;many have been forced to have expensive engine modifications to meet new emmision standards and they are against the proposal to have the ‘knowledge’ dumbed down to make it easier for ethnic minorities to qualify.
50 That reminds me of a put down - was it Monty Python: ” He speaks three languages fluently, unfortunately none of them is English.”
Philippe
That is now two polls in Indiana showing a sudden large Clinton lead after a few showing Obama in front.
If anyone thinks Obama can come back into a poll lead in IN, then the 2/1 on Betfair to small stakes is interesting.
Myself? Won’t take it because Obama has hit a bump but it did cross my mind.
As for NC, if Hilary got that close I’d be surprised but it’d be a decent result for her. I think she’d be doing very well to get it below 10%.
Can we have some pitches from people on the London Assembly elections as to the seats for each party come Friday morning?
Another lurker creeping out of the woodwork to say thanks to Mike for maintaining this site. Despite the occasional frenetic spinner and astroturfer, it really is one of the best sites for quickly getting up to speed on major political stories.
I’m not all praises though. The depraved Eric Pickles and Emily Maitlis slash fiction makes me yearn for reading about the innocent playful romps of Lord Laidlaw from the last thread…
Emily Maitless certainly isn’t overpromoted, in any sense.
BTW O/T but i assume people realise that London isn’t counting until Friday.
OT
Emily Maitliss, what a babe..!
http://bp3.blogger.com/_LdsDDMA6O0g/RhVXRhEeDJI/AAAAAAAABdk/cMt4kfCTWvw/s1600-h/emily_maitlis_legs_2.jpg
60, For gods sake..its a 24 hour city…
Ok will anyone pitch as to the Assembly seats for each party come Saturday morning…
58, last para: What’s yer thinking, Yokel?
59 - but won’t exit polls (and the John Loony “poll” based on his observation of south London postal votes) be available after the (voting) polls close on Thursday?
Probably the smart move is to back McCain (best price still appears to be with Centerbet at 1.7 - these Oz bookies just don’t rate him!), rather than probably lose your money on Hillary and Obama is starting to look like soiled if not yet damaged goods, although I still think he’s value per my post 27 above.
60 No, I didn’t realise that - thanks for saving me some beauty sleep.
60 The more time to filter out fraudulent votes the better - looks like we need to go back to physical attendance at the polling booths - maybe the elderly/infirm could get postals by certification by their doctors.
60 - When will the results be declared? I was thinking of staying up tomorrow night, but I won’t bother if the count for Mayor is delayed until Friday
61 - Not bad! But would give my vote for leggiest TV journalist to Campell Brown. Once saw her in the flesh at a John Kerry rally in Seattle in 2004. She was standing on a raised platform, wearing a tasteful tartan miniskirt and black stockings. Had legs from here to yonder.
Talk about Scotland the Brave!
MAYORAL MARKET ON BETFAIR
Since Don’s 26 post, the matched bets have jumped 33%.
67 Aaron - with second prefs to count, I imagine it will be well into the afternoon/evening, although presumably there’s no reason why we shouldn’t have regional results along the way.
I guess on Thursday evening we’ll also get exit polls.
62 - Cons 10 (+1), Lab 7 (-), Lib Dem 5 (-), Green 1 (-2), BNP 1 (+1), final seat between Green, Labour and UKIP or Respect (or whatever they’re called this week).
Labour to win just three fptp constituencies (and as an outside chance lose City and East).
69 That might also have something to do with the polls opening in a mere 30 hours or so!
71 Dan, you got me quite excited there for a second or tw0, I thought you were Don!
63. I don’t know, thats why I’m asking.I dont really have a grasp of the London Assembly
64. Something isnt right in the Dem noimination race right now and I can’t quite say why. I do know that I not the only relatively neutral watcher(as in I dont support either candidate poltically..or with my cash for that matter) that feels something isnt quite as it should be but can’t put a finger on it quite yet.
Before the race even began I posted here repeatedly that Hilary would hit a wall of doubt amongst Democrats who might at least feel shaky about her if not baulk at nominating her. That was my logic in backing John Edwards at the start.
Right now, Obama has hit his bump…and I don’t think it is going to go away in a week. I think the Wright business is a no win and I’m wondering if middle of the road Dems will tilt Hilary’s way now though its late in the day.
In NC surely the demographics mean that she cant win and where Obama has had a decent lead she hasnt shown any ability to eat into that before. Knowing this and knowing that the idea of Obama underpolling everywhere propogated by some on PB.com before the voting day has not been borne out in real battleground states, tells me that he should cruise home without too much issue.
BUT…this time there’s is starting to be a nagging doubt that she could make it closer than she really should in NC. How much closer, I have no idea. As yet I shall ignore the nagging doubt but if it starts becoming persistently nagging then I’ll have to look again.
Not sure if this has been posted or cited before, or indeed how scientific it is, but a “new poll of 1000 Metro readers” shows Boris 8 points ahead of Ken.
http://tinyurl.com/68e5b4
BoJo is apparently down a few, from a similar previous poll, but still comfortably in the lead.
71, Thank you Dan.
Whiling away the hour netween wakefulness and sleep……
Maybe the the real ‘narrative’ in the US election is the Monomyth, we appear to be in act 2 at the moment (following act 1 - The Call to Adventure etc.).
“ACT II DESCENT, INITIATION, PENETRATION
6. Tests, Allies & Enemies
• “begins to learn rules of Special World”
• “encounters new challenges and tests, makes allies and enemies”
• “watch hero and companions react under stress, reveal aspects of hero’s character”
7. Approach to Inmost Cave
• “hero comes to edge of dangerous place where object of quest is hidden (often HQ of greatest enemy & most dangerous spot in Special World)”
• “pause to prepare, plan, and outwit villain’s guards - SECOND THRESHOLD is when hero enters Inmost Cave”
8. The Ordeal
• “fortunes of hero hit bottom in direct confrontation with greatest fear”
• “brought to brink in battle with hostile force with possible death”
• “ ‘black moment’ for audience, held in suspense and tension, not knowing if hero will live or die”
• “hero must die or appear to die so he may be reborn (life or death moment in which the hero or his goals are in mortal jeopardy)”
9. Reward (Seizing the Sword)
• “celebrate surviving death and take possession of reward were seeking: treasure, knowledge, experience”
• “hero may also settle conflict with parent, or opposite sex (love scene)”"
Act 3, ‘The Return’ will of course be the final stretch of campaigning and the result.
74 - Re London Assembly, think that John Loony posted a fairly detailed prediction, maybe last weekend?
As for US Dem nomination, I feel your angst and share it; and while I’ve no money on the line, I do support Obama and futhermore, it’ my country, dude!
Obama’s break with Wright today is a glimmer of hope, methinks. But so far only a glimmer.
Think you are right on the money re: the Tarheel State.
74 Yokel, I share a number of your concerns, but I think they has left her charge just too late. I keep coming back to Rod Crosby’s spreadsheet which so far has proved uncannily accurate and this this is telling us one simple message - to all intents and purposes the contest is over, Obama cannot now be caught, end of.
79 1st line: they = Hillary
79
otherwise: riots in Denver!
81 - No riots in Denver, that’s rightwing wacko fantasy. The equation 2008 = 1968 just does not compute.
Well done Mike!
Think Hillary risks having expectations too high now - IN was supposed to be a toss-up, NC an Obama blow-out. If she wins IN by 2% and loses NC by 9%, both perfectly plausible outcomes, it’ll be seen as Obama putting pastorgate behind him. A crucial week.
Insomniacs can hear me on the Today program at 7.40 - that’ll soon lull you back to sleep. We’re debating pay in prisons. (Why me? It’s because I’m on the Justice Select Committee.)
The fact that this website has record numbers of visitors, viewers, downloaders and messagers is not something to boast about. The vast number of messages each day mean that I don’t have to read them all; I skim through them and might miss something interesting. Can’t there be some sort of filter so that I can see the interesting ones more easily?
Since he makes it freely available to anyone interested, I’m sure Rod wouldn’t mind my linking his spreadsheet below:
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Democrats.xls
BTW, where is Rod, this is normally his time on here?
I’m utterly stunned that Pastor Wright is seemingly attempting to ruin a member of his congregation’s chances of becoming president of the United States.
He seems like a relatively intelligent if abrasive and controversial man yet in this he is being utterly and incomprehensibly idiotic.
I am baffled.
79. Its not the numbers, those have been clear to me since Maine which to me was the moment that if Hilary didn’t win there then something remarkable would have to occur for her to make it. I think I posted before Maine that it was critical.
The problem is that a lot of wider enthusiasm for Obama amongst some serious players in the Dems has waned. I still believe the reason why many super delagates havent yet moved is because they just dont believe in either candidate and, I think they waiting to ensure that the wheels dont come off Obama’s wagon. Enough will, and this is something I have always felt, go with the flow, but they dont exactly seem to want to make a call even so late on.
Thats just plain odd to me. What have they got to lose? Why isnt it clear to them who the winner is and thus they can come out?
Clinton’s campaign is potentially wearing Obama down so much that this guy is in danger of limping across the line, something a few weeks back that you couldnt see. After Texas & Ohio, Obama looked like he was beginning to shrug his shoulders that he couldnt kill Hilary off and drew comfort in the delegate numbers, an unusual thing to major his concession speech on, given the whole hope and positivity angle.
I believe and have done for a while that although Obama’s camp see the delegate numbers and know they have it, some of them fear that Clinton is somehow going to somehow deny him. That kind of illogical fear isnt good, nor is what I think is just a plain odd reluctance for more super delegates to come out positively for Obama (or indeed Clinton).
At this time, the shine has come off big style. Clinton may go down in flames but she’s going to make sure that her opponent wishes that he had never bothered. For that I cant fault her as the Obama doubts are only coming forth because she’s stuck it out.
And doubt, any doubt, is a crack in the wall.
85 It’s worth noting on Rod’s spreadsheet that the final projected margin of victory for Obama is after including a number of primarily negative options shown at the foot of the page, which have all been ticked.
86 - I think Obama being attacked by Wright is about the best thing for his campaign.
77. So once this race was better than the west wing and now its Wagner? Hmm. Have watched a lot of obama today and he looks shattered.
82
Sea Shanty,
Would not it be a fun bet? –> If Clinton is the nominee out of the Denver Convention, then would there be a riot?, or not?
W would bet yes! Are you offering?
In 79, I was jocking; but here, I’m not kidding!
An excellent post. The only thing currently going in Obama’s favour is the prospect of the Democratic party as a whole and the Special Delegates in particular deciding that the whole road show has already gone on far too long and that it’s time to bring matters to a conclusion. Frankly however, they are showing no signs of feeling this way right now.
92 An excellent post = #87
Obama has to win Indiana - People will be thinking…wth can’t he finish Clinton off.
Right now Hillary is building a case for V-P or 2012 - She’s been formidable to shake-off and my guess is that the Democrats just found out how tough the Clinton machine is to battle.
Obama has to win a) Indiana b) Oregon - This would effectively end Hillary’s race - If he fails to do both I would say that Obama would not have the credibility to be the nominee.
Yoke!,
Are you incline toward thinking it is possible for AL GORE to get the nomination?
In betfair, the odds are 30.
–Nobel peace prize winner, very fat, quite handsome for a fat boy, Oscar winner, and an global-warming cheerleader?
’cause now nobody will be dropping the race.
94
Obama will not win Indiana.
I’m quietly observing you, while buried in some stats I’m doing for a friend.
Yes, you’re free to play with the spreadsheet. It wasn’t so hard to make the predictions. Under PR you’re bound not to be far off.
Also, I just had a feeling for the kind of states Obama might win, and those for Clinton. Plus the dynamic of Super Tuesday showed Obama tended to win big, while Clinton’s wins were narrow.
Does anyone know the latest on FL/MI? There was a time a month or so back that re-runs looked possible, and I updated the sheet to refelect this. I updated the sheet to make it an either/or FL/MI would be re-run or be seated as is. I guess that may have changed. Is neither outcome a possibilty? If so I’ll update the sheet and declare Obama home and hosed….
@96 I agree
94. If he wins Indiana he will finally finish Clinton there and then. She may carry on but there will be no twist other than a scandal left.
I’m not sure about the Hilary 2012 line. I think one of the reasons she is pursuing this in such a street fighting way is that she believes that it is now or never. Yes if Obama gets the nomination but loses in November maybe the party will come calling for Hilary but I think the same issues faced this time for her would maybe still be there. There’s no guarantee that she would get the all is forgiven red carpet treatemnt
I would suspect that some in Clinton’s camp are using the line, at least in private, that Obama can wait.
Oh and congratulations Mike.
Although I do hope increased success doesn’t destroy the civility and the intimacy that is the great attraction of the site….
95, For President? No. Cant see it at this time, even as a long shot.
97. The general belief is that they will seat them in some way but its just a matter of how and whether its a full seating.
Donna Brazile is in trouble: http://newsbusters.org/static/2008/03/2008-03-16ABCTW.wmv
Right thats me off to bed. I’m out of puff for the evening.
Will be interesting to see if Obama stop the Wright rot, and potentially any doubts about Obama’s own straightness.
103 Me too, goodnight everyone.
101
AL GORE?
–for the nomination of the Democratic Party.
Out of DEnver, in August.
Both Clinton and Obama will look damaged.
McCain is looking as good as ever.
Iran is treatheing Iraq and Israel.
The Chinese are upset against the bans on their Olympics.
Then AL GORE IS THE MAN!
He ran a campaign for the presidency and won it! YES HE DID, SO YES HE CAN!
And now: Nobel Prize, and Oscar!
91 - Thanks, but no thanks. Because
1) I don’t bet
2) Even if I did, would be a bit difficult to determine the minimum threshold. Though not impossible.
If Gore wanted to run for president, he’d be running. Fact that he’s not says it all.
As for Hilary in 2012, total non-starter unless of course she’s nominated & elected in 2008.
Baring that possibility, the Clintons have ensured that leading Democrats will move heaven and earth to keep them far, far away from anything approaching viability. Indeed, unless she cuts some kind of deal, my guess is that her Senate career will be over. Sure, she can still get elected. But inside the Capitol, plenty of Dems will make it there business to cut her . . . and I don’t mean social embarassment!
202 Donna Brazile IS trouble. In fact, totally worthless. Always was, always will be. Complete waste of space.
Re the Riot in Denver scenario
Only way that this MIGHT happen, would be if the Clinton’s outright stole the nomination, say by seating Michigan and that was the decisive factor.
BUT that is HIGHLY unlikely. Sure, some fanatical Obamaniacs will interpret any Clinton victory as highway robbery. Just like if Livingstone manages to pull his fat out of the fire and actually get reelected, there will be plenty of posters on PB who will blame the international Islamic postal voting conspiracy. But while they can poison the well, will have a hard time finding a bucket.
On the other hand, if she wins because Obama blows it, then what excuse or motivation would there be for a riot? Zero.
108
Make sense to me. Only things: sportive event — even sportive anthropology fot that matter-shows that excited crowds don’t need no rational ‘motivation’ or ‘excuse’ to transform itself into a rioting mob…
And Denver will be a pretty exciting moment if there is no all-but-certain nominee before its beginning.
Ph.
By the way, I really appreciate your analysis and/or point of view on American politics.
IS OBAMA LOSING THE KIDS?
“While Obama captured 65 percent of these young voters in PPP’s April 21 measure (PDF), giving him a 42-point lead over Clinton, PPP figures released yesterday (PDF) show that Clinton has drastically narrowed that lead and now trails Obama by only 18 percentage points.”
Slate, http://www.slate.com/id/2175496/?from=rss
ABOUT FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN
“The mandatory penalties set forth by the Democratic National Committee’s delegate selection rules call for outlaw states like Florida and Michigan to only lose half of their delegates to the national convention. And yet the DNC went beyond its own rules to add further penalties, stripping those states of all delegates.”
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/04/where-the-dem-rules-really-lea.html
My views on Indiana post-denunciation are that its really up in the air. I’ll be following cable news very closely over the next day or so, because that will determine everything. It could be that white voters become even more turned off with Obama just because the Wright story is back, or it could be that they rally to him in approval for shedding off the nutter.
112 - Or they might see him as a flip-flopping lie-monger. Denouncing him at this stage having failed to do so two months ago despite the same evidence being available doesn’t alter the fact he seems to have agreed with him for 20 years until it became embarrassing.
If the Republicans were not so damaged by 8 Bush years Obama would have no chance of winning in November. But unless Indiana and NC are a disaster for him (HC blowout in Indiana and tiny NC win for Obama) he’ll still get into the White House.
Having said that, I think Wright has damaged him, but I don’t think fatally.
As one of the number-boosting newbies, can I say just how much this site annoys me. I only fould it a week or so ago, and I haven’t got to bed at a sensible time since. I would be very grateful if you would all stop being interesting, amusing and insightful by say 8-00pm, so I’ve got a chance of catching up and still getting my eight hours. Thankyou.
O/T: BACK TO THE LONDON MAYORAL RACE
Mike, what is your opinion on this, just taken from the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1913772/Boris-Johnson-and-Ken-Livingstone-target-second-choice-votes.html
“Meanwhile, Mr Livingstone has submitted a formal complaint to the Market Research Foundation over a series of opinion polls by YouGov, including one due to appear on the morning of polling day itself, which give Mr Johnson double digit leads.
The mayor’s campaign say YouGov’s methodology is doubtful as it uses online polling, and complain that publication of the poll could skew the outcome of the contest”.
and years later. turtle, then eventually caught it horizontal names.