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Will punters believe in a Tory majority after Thursday?

April 29th, 2008

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    Massive poll leads yet still the nervousness

In the past week and a bit we’ve had surveys from all five firms that do national general election polls and all have reported the same trend – a big shift to the Conservatives. The ComRes 14% lead was the last to come and overnight produced figures that would convert into a near Tory landslide at a general election.

To recap these are the latest ratings from each of the firms:-

  • ComRes C40: L26: LD20
  • ICM C39: L29: LD20
  • YouGov C44: L26: LD17
  • MORI C40: L31: LD19
  • Populus C40: L30: LD19
  • Yet just look at the Commons seat spread betting markets above. Even with the polls all saying the same thing punters are still not convinced that we might be heading for a David Cameron majority at the next election.

    But could everything change after Thursday elections? Could a Tory win in London and big successes elsewhere transform the political mood? Could now be the moment to get your general election bets on?

    What strikes me is that we are in completely uncharted territory. It is now nearly thirty years since the Tories were last threatening to unseat a Labour government and we have no real reference points. In spite of the ratings nobody quite believes that a change of government is possible but could we be nearing the tipping point?

    One of the site’s regular contributors, Rod Crosby, always argues that changes of government have never happened without in the preceding years the main opposition party winning seats off the governing party in Westminster by elections. I think that’s right probably right although MPs appear younger and healthier these days and there have not been as many opportunities.

    But the next big development in domestic politics will be Labour’s defence of Crewe and Nantwich following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody. We have not got a date yet but this contest provides the ideal platform for the Tories to capitalise on their likely progress this Thursday.

    So for those who play the spread betting commons seat markets now might be the moment to move. Could the price panel above be the last occasion when we see the Tory BUY level being lower than the threshold for an overall majority?

  • In the next day or so I’ll do an “Idiot’s Guide to Commons Seat Spread Betting” because I know that many would like to put their toes in the water but find it all confusing.
  • Mike Smithson






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