PB’s YouGov figures are confirmed
May 1st, 2008
The Evening Standard’s final YouGov poll of the mayoral campaign has just been published and the figures are exactly as was reported here at 9.27 pm last night.
On first preferences it is BORIS 43%: KEN 36%: PADDICK 13%. After the redistribution of second preferences it splits BORIS 53%: KEN 47%
From the poll detail it appears that there has been a hardening up of support by party allegiance. Two days ago 87% of those who have told the firm that they are Tories said they were backing Boris - today’s numbers have that at 94%. It’s the same with Labour supporters where there had been an increase in support for Ken. He’s now getting 76% of those who have identified themselves to the firm as Labour backers.
The detailed data shows that Boris is retaining the support of 84% of those who have told the firm that they are Tories while Ken is now getting 63% of those who have identified themselves to the firm as Labour backers. The Lib Dem “identifiers” split almost three ways between the leading candidates.
The poll data also shows that Boris is picking up just about two three voters from the 55+ age group for every one two to Ken. This is broadly in line with most of the recent polls and is significant because more than any other segment of the population older people turn out to vote.
My apologies for getting this wrong in the first version of the article - I was reading the lines for Westminster voting intention and not today’s ballot.
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Mike Smithson
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Thanks Mike. YouGov have this correct, I think. A comfortable win for Boris, but not a landslide. I suspect this will be very, very close to reality now.
Do we get the London Assembly results tonight? Or does that wait until tomorrow like the Mayoral contest as well?
Well, it’s a lot better for Ken than the 11% lead Boris had the other day. We’re just going to have to wait and see.
1 - GIN - “Do we get the London Assembly results tonight?”
Overnight tonight I believe. Should be an indicator (although Livingstone will poll well above Labour votes for the assembly) as to how the mayoral election will go.
Is that 76% of those who identified themselves as Labour in 2005 (but now might be Tory/Lib-Dem etc) or those who identify themselves as Labour today in 2008? If its the former then the 94% and 76% are not directly comparable.
Any idea when we’ll get first turnout figures?
Daring to believe that Boris might actually do it now. God it’d be good to say goodbye to Ken…
I’ll admit to not having read *all* the posts about this in the last couple of days, so apologies if this has already been answered, but are there likely to be exit polls this evening?
Got to be good news for Boris? Looks - from my admittedly distant perspective - that Ken has fought back this week, but that it’s not quite been enough. 1.36 on Boris looks about the right price.
Notwithstanding Smithson’s Law, I now do think that the 11% YouGov lead was indeed a “rogue poll”. I think this is going to the wire…
It is funny how the very last opinion polls always appear to look far more rational. So an 11% Boris win (clearly not going to happen) falls to a much more realistic 6% lead.
Didn’t this happen in the 2005 election as well when most of the pollsters were predicting 3-5% Labour leads in their final polls as opposed to the consistent 8-10% that were presented during the campaign.
I think some creative rounding happens at the end to try and ensure some credibility
Extreme caution advised on that poll.
i) very high figures for Lab and Con on the Assembly. Combined Lab+Con at 73% versus 52.2% in 2004. Something wrong there..
ii) Assembly swing much lower than mayoral swing. 1.8% versus 7.25%. Something wrong there too..
Alarm bells start ringing?
My forecast: a recount..
Oh I forgot, they can’t do recounts…
Result:CHAOS
Londoners can relax! Mayor Boris, won’t be causing any problems, he’ll be staying in Henley.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3850640.ece
This should be the ideal result for Boris, no place for complacency among his supporters - should GOTV.
For those wanting to get the taste of “that” Grauniad piece out of their mouths - read this, to the end!
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/04/michael_whites_political_blog_142.html
9. i think that you may be right on the money for this one.
9 - surely the lab+con 73% figure is possible this time because of the shrinkage of the significant vote UKIP achieved last time?
9 - if you’re wrong, do you promise not to post for a couple of days - at least?
12. My word they really are upset!
Have just finished telling and have visted the other Polling Stations in my Ward …
Busier/Higher Turn out than the ‘06 Locals.
Boris by 10% +
This piece from the Guardian should upset some of you even more.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/30/london.conservatives
re 9. Rod - how are you measuring the Assembly swings? Because last the Tories had a big margin in votes for the assembly but Norris finished up more than 10% behind Ken for the Mayoralty.
My reading is that Tories are following their allegiance which they did not do to the same extent in 2004.
Just been informed of very high turnout in Arkley area of High Barnet ward (very strong Conservative area).
In 90 mins at one polling station there were 60 people. By comparison there would usually be 20-30 maximum for eqivalent time period at local elections.
18. It really is hilarious. If Boris wins, the collective biff on the nose to the people in those 3 guardian articles is great.
Not wanting to sound like king kev “but i would love it if Ken loses”
Re 10 - from that report:
‘”John Walsh, the Conservative agent in Henley, said that the local association would be looking for a candidate “in an orderly fashion”. He added: “This will not be done in a rush. We have a timetable to select a candidate before the summer holiday, with a potential for an autumn or spring by-election.” ‘
Surely this is madness and sets it up for the LD by election team. I expected him not to stand down at all, but if he does he should do it fast to minimise the time the LDs have to work it.
‘Boris ahead in polls, but it’s so close’ says the Standard: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481565-details/Boris+ahead+in+polls%2C+but+it%27s+so+close/article.do
Looking at the numbers to pull out the margin of error (for example, the last MORI had a 4% MoE on the 2nd prefs) and assuming for the sake of argument that a normal distribution can be assumed (with MoE being the standard 95% confidence interval):
To 1 dp*:
Boris: 43.1% (MoE +/- 2.6%)
Ken: 35.8% (MoE +/- 2.5%)
Brian: 12.5% (MoE +/- 1.8%)
2nd prefs
Boris: 53.0% (MoE +/- 2.8%)
Ken: 47.0% (MoE +/- 2.5%)
Percentage chance that Boris is truly ahead after 2nd prefs on this poll and sample size: 97.21%
It would have to be a real rogue for Ken to be ahead - or a sampling/process bias in the YouGov poll (or that famous dead Russian, the “late Serge”). So it’s down to: How much do you trust the YouGov methodology?
* (taking to 1 dp not recommended usually due to the wide error bars - but doing it in this case to find out exactly how wide the error margin actually is by establishing a more precise centre point of the probability spread in each case)
18. God, the Guardian really is going after Boris hard, aren’t they? Almost as much as the Evening Standard have been going after Ken! Somehow though, I doubt all these anti-Boris stuff they’re running at the last minute will make any difference to the outcome. If Boris wins, as he surely will, they’ll end up looking pretty ridiculous, much as they did after their risible attempt to stop Americans voting for Bush in 2004.
22
Odds on Boris finding a reason too hang on till the GE?
ken winning would beat Kinnock losing!!!
22 - But surely they can just get the Libs the p1ss money and resources up the wall by saying - looking for a candidate - maybe autumn - maybe spring - maybe next year - oh actually, there’s only 18months till Gordon has to go anyway, why not just wait till then…
26. high
25
Surely you shouldn’t be surprised? its this that should concern any Tory.
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/
For those that haven’t seen it.
Just popped back in from telling (in Ealing) for a couple of hours.
Really strong turn out (by-election running today as well so we’ve hit the area hard). Lab and Lib Dems have no tellers in any of the ward’s polling districts.
Entirely unscientifically…My blue rosette was pretty well received, and I got a fair few (unsolicited)people telling me that they’d backed Boris. And one person who told me that Richard Barnbrook was the only sensible choice!
It’s anecdotal, but I think that high turnout in this part of London suits Boris (not in neighbouring Southall though!).
26 Agreed. There’s nothing more certain.
26. well the people of henley have already gone several months without proper representation in parliament during his campaign - what difference should a few more matter?
Why has Heffer waited till today to make this attack on Johnson? And wasn’t it Heffer who wrote the Liverpool article for the Spectator? Is there a bit of emnity between him and Boris?
19.
Tory Assembly vote lead 2004: 3.4%
Tory Assemby vote lead YouGov: 7.0%
swing to Tories (7.0-3.4)/2 = 1.8%
Tory mayoral vote lead 2004: (-7.5%)
Tory mayoral vote lead YouGov: 7.0%
swing to Tories (7.0-(-7.5))/2 = 7.25%
I find it hard to believe Boris is outperforming the Tory Assembly swing by that much… He’s outperforming the Tories by a factor of 4……!
If the true mayoral swing is half-way between the two, Ken will win this very.. very.. very.. narrowly on second peferences….
33 - It’s hardly as if the people of Henley are particularly in need of their MPs help that often is it?
26 6-1 on
Haha - those Guardian articles crack me up.
On the “Tory” commentators:
One from a man who’s about 110 years old, has a name like a rare bird of prey and more hair growing from his nostrils than his head, and the other from a man who, quite frankly, is a very nasty piece of work with a surname like an SS Officer.
I’ll leave you to work out which.
On the “Boris is a Nutter, a Racist, A Mad-Man, A Buffoon……ARRRGGHHH!!! He’s going to win! Please don’t let him… PLEASE!!” article in the Guardian, that just made me laugh.
Zoe “whatshername” - desperate, desperate scaremongering stuff. Classic reaction of the Left when the Right are in the ascendancy.
Boris will win. And he will be good.
Time to get over it.
34. Because Heffer is an absolute c***
(sorry Mike, hope you can make an exception for that language… given it’s Simon Heffer we’re talking about here)
3. Thanks very much.
35. Easy to explain. Tory assembly voters are know backing their mayoral candidate. And the size of the Tory base has increased slightly.
26 Salmond still hanging on to both jobs isn`t he, So why can`t Boris and any other free loaders.
35) Rod Crosby - this race is about 2 huge personalities Boris vs Ken. Lib Dem, Green, BNP etc voters are highly highly aware their Mayor will be one of these 2.
It is very likely that people from other parties are voting Ken or Boris for Mayor but their own affiliations for the assembly to a much greater extent than before.
24,
D’oh! Schoolboy error: 97.21% excludes the chance of a Boris win by more than the difference from 50%.
Actual percentage chance of a Boris lead on the strength of this poll is 98.61%
Methodology error, late swing or extreme luck needed for Ken.
39 - nothing wrong with calling Heffer a clot.
34 - who Heffer?
24. Andy Cooke. Based on your assessment does that mean that, if you trust the YouGov methodology, there is a 95% chance,(1.05 on betfair or 1/19 bookies) that Boris 1st preference share is between 40.05-45.70% ?
Ladbrokes are laying 7/4 (2.75 Betfair, 36% chance) that Boris gets a 1st prefernce between 40-45%, which covers all but 0.7% of the spread. I’ve had some.
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re 24 Yep, just what is the bias in the YouGov sample? Looks to me like a tight finish because:
1. Boris needs a swing at least in line with swing in National polls. Likely but not certain.
2. Ken is finishing slightly stronger, as realisation spreads he is likely to lose (all three pollsters give him their highest % - inc. 2nd vote - with their final poll).
3. Though mruk and MORI very likely to overstate Ken, I’d also be surprised if they were so far out that the margin was greater than YouGov shows.
4. There isn’t a very recent non-YouGov poll to pick up any late firming of Ken vote (which You Gov detects, though not enough with their sample).
5. More Labour footsoldiers will be out for Ken than would be the case for other candidates at this time.
Conclusion, Boris lead 0 - 4%. Not enough to have me backing at 1.3ish. Though 1.4+ would tempt me.
43, If the GE is a re-run between the Dour Ditherer and the Shallow Salesman, this could be the template, for both main parties.
Well, haven’t posted for months, thought i’d drop in and pick up any early ‘feeling’ as to how things are going. Living in Leicester means that the mayoral race is not of direct interest to me, more the political fallout. Is a Boris win a good thing for the Tories? As the Arthur Wellesly said, or as close as I can remember, “The next worse thing to a battle lost is a battle won”, not sure thats a relevant quote, but it wastes a few more minutes.
I agree that swing difference between Tory Assembly votes and Johnson is odd.
But you have to ask whether that’s because their candidate last time around was relatively unpopular. Johnson is more ‘acceptable’ for his party than Norris was.
On the other hand last time around I believe the Tory Assembly vote was hurt by UKIP - with UKIP getting 2% now vs >10% then how can the swing only be 1.8%? Where would those 8% of votes go?
52, perhaps the mayoral vote is affected by the fact that only Boris or Ken can win, so he’s bolstered by an anti-Ken vote?
53) Absolutely. See my post at 43) - “its not rocket science*”
*phrase may be on the v’erboten’ list
If it is so close how come the bookies have a massive gap? Someone must be wrong.
Does anyone know if the detailed data second mruk poll is online anywhere ?
Postal voting trends favour Ken’s rivals.
The Evening Standard survey obtained figures from 29 of London’s 32 borough councils. Boris Johnson-supporting boroughs such as Barnet, Bromley, Wandsworth and Croydon have piled up tens of thousands of postal vote applications, more than twice as many as some Labour boroughs.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481555-details/Postal+voting+trends+favour+Ken’s+rivals/article.do
-This looks in-line with Iain Dale’s leak.
Slightly O/T
Gord will not be a happy bunny tonight
Beleaguered Gordon Brown suffered a fresh blow today as a key Labour think-tank accused him of “neurotic under-confidence”.
The Prime Minister worries too much about presentation and must “cancel Number 10’s subscription to PR Week”, according to the Fabian Society.
Strong and radical leadership was needed because Labour was “badly stuck” over how to win the next general election, the society said.
The damning critique was delivered by Sunder Katwala, the general secretary of the left-wing think-tank.
It will be particularly stinging for Mr Brown as - like all previous Labour premiers - he counts himself among the organisation’s members.
*** unbroken link for above; http://tinyurl.com/68mebj
What was Labour’s Assembly vote share last time? YouGov is saying 33%, seems a bit high.
Ken Livingstone is only getting 36% of total votes, if you assume all Labour supporters will support him (what’s the point in electing Labour Assembly members if you don’t?) that leaves only about 5% of all remaining voters supporting him.
12 An once again, for all hate filled lefties, I recomend The Art of Happiness by the Dalai Lama
http://www.amazon.com/Art-Happiness-Handbook-Living/dp/1573221112
@60…
Con 27.8
Lab 24.4
LD 16.5
Grn 8.4
BNP 4.7
UKIP 8.2
36. I suppose they don’t necessarily need an MP, but this shows just how unaccountable MPs in these sorts of safe seats are.
If the Labour Assembly vote was actually 29% that would leave ~10% of supporters of all other parties to vote for Ken which is more reasonable.
Prediction, Labour does worse than expected.
So YouGov is showing the Tories up 12.2% and Labour up 8.6%, which surely must be b0llocks….
47,stjohn: Yup.
Assuming, of course, no methodology errors or very late swing.
Also “cityam” poll results;
http://www.cityam.com/index.php?news=12671
Cityam is a free sheet handed out to commuters around the City Of London. Daily circ 95K. Readers have average salary of £65,000. Claims reach of 350k.
57. Note the low numbers of postal votes issued in Newham, Tower Hamlets and Barking.
My geography is not that good but I think that suggests that the possibility of unusually high turnout in muslim areas can be discounted.
Mike. From the main article. You say that 94% of those who have told YouGov that they are Tories are backing Boris. Looking at the YouGov data I read it as 84%, with 63% of Labour identifiers backing Ken. The respective figures for Westminster voting intentions are 94% Tory identifiers and 78% Labour identifiers. I think I’ve read this correctly?
47 Ladbrokes are offering 6/4 on 40-44.99% and 11/4 on 45-49.99% so you can cover the whole 40-49.99% range - free money surely?? It seems unfeasible that BoJo won’t get somewhere between those 2 figures on first preferences.
68. I doubt, however, that we’ll see retractions from those who insinuated that muslims would be rigging the elections using postal vote fraud.
70. Up at least 12% on 2004? That is a big ask…
36% of people didn’t give a 1st pref to either Lab or Con last time. That’s more than Ken got…
47. Good spot stjohn. I’ve had some of that together with the 15/8 PaddyPower are offering for the same outcome, plus a small saver at their 10/3 for BJ 45%+.
The 5/6 PP offer for Ken to win on 2nd Prefs still looks OK value as well on the back of these latest numbers, though I’m hoping Hills might put up a bigger price later.
Good grief sounds more like London rejects!
73. Just to clarify, I meant to say for Ken to beat Boris on the 2nd prefs only, not overall, and obviously Brian Paddick should win 2nd prefs overall.
Marquee Mark noted on the previous thread that super delegate Joe Andrew had switched from Clinton to Obama. The Wall Street Journal has the story :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120962832953558997.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_leftbox
70
Not necessarily. Betting at 6/4 and 11/4 equates to 67% between 40-49.9% share of the vote. Sounds excessive to me seeing as Ken’s overly popular election victories in 2000 and 2004 couldn’t see him in the 40s. This is a much closer affair as well. Although Boris may well get over 40% the probability is most certainly not 67% thus I don’t see how this can be a value bet at all.
68. — Very good news for punters and Boris backers!
Boris still looks like excellent value on Betfair to me….
I’ll be topping-up when I get home!
Anything over 1.25 is good value for me.. with the postal vote evidence to boot, Ken has lost this.
71. Another astroturfer…
65. OK, just guessing …
Assume the YouGov panel is more knowledgable (about the London voting system) than the average voter.
More ‘average’ voters turn up, for the first time at a London poll, than usual. They know about the Mayor vote between Boris/Ken and that is what they are primarily there for. Yet they are then handed another ballot paper for the Assembly so they vote, but more ‘randomly’, on that paper.
So YouGov over-estimates the combined Lab/Con vote for the Assembly.
re 69. You are correct - I was looking at the Westminster voting intention figures.
OT, but Dianne Abbot apparently given a public dressing down by the Labour whips…
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/05/are-labour-whip.html
Boris drifting on Betfair. 1.44 available Ken into 3.2. Twitchy bum time!
small move back to Ken on Betfair.
Boris shifted out above 1.40 and Ken into 3.1.
Profit taking perhaps?
84) Nerves.
85. They’ve long gone!
84) I’m always a nervous wreck on settlement day, whatever my conviction level. Anyone fancy a beer?
OT again but NC poll puts Clinton ahead.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_430_370.aspx
There may be a drift away from Obama from the “educated” white voters who have given him such solid support so far.
Still can’t see him losing NC but I’d say Indiana is well and truly gone now. Hopefuilly Betfair will put up another handicap market for these primaries.
88 Ernesto. How might one pull this simply …. oh yes IA are cr*p !!
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/04/30/insider-advantage-sucks/
Although no votes have yet been counted, do the parties/candidates already have a rough idea of what is going with the votes?
Lets all start drinking now!
91. Off to work. Hopefully not too much to do and then get on it. It’s going to be a long night/48 hours.
90 - From experience you usually have a feel, you don’t ever know for certain until the result is given to you. Most candidates though are like a cat on hot bricks election day, and they are all convinced that they will lose.
a lot of us watching Betfair, then. Am tempted to put a few quid on Boris, but always nervous of a sliding price.
88. cr*p they may be but they called Pennsylvania at 10% win and 7% win. Their last poll for NC was 15% Obama lead.
This is the first poll since the pastor’s appearance at the NPC isn’t it? The poll was taken that day in fact.
93 - to be fair, most of them are right.
93 - Thanks James
96 - He he he
Slightly surprised at the Betfair move as surely those postal voting numbers must be very good for Boris. High in Conservative areas and low in Labour areas across the board and by large margins.
I know the figures are only postal vote applications but postal votes returned are likely to bear a strong correlation.
Add in the Iain Dale info (which appears to be the only actual specific info on actual votes cast) and I would say indications are favourable for Boris.
have laid Ken at 3.25 - seems good value.
Excellent in-depth analysis on ‘Fivethirtyeight’ on the likely delegate split in Indiana - O-36/C-36 :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/indiana-toss-up-but-tilts-clinton.html
95 Ernesto. Even a stopped clock is right twice each day !!
However if such polls allow Obama to drift in the markets then so much the better !!
101 -Wheras a clock that is wrong, is wrong all the time !
82
I’m sure the only reason that slob keeps her job is because if they tried to dump her there would be screams of racism.
102 Rob. Too deep for me !!
99. To anyone that wasn’t pb minded, that could be quite a scary comment
US Democrats.
Rumours Clinton picking up 4 supers today and Obama 2, but one of Obams’s is the Andrews switch from Clinton, that would leave it 3-2
to Clinton. So far only Andrews public, he could have some significance, endorsing Clinton early, but changing now, saying its all going on too long.
I would bet on a drift back to Obama over the next few days, not much but enough to give him N Carolina.
101 Easy there! I want HRC to drift a wee bit first.
106 dave(s). I think they are the add-ons from New York (4) and Maryland (2). So Hillary will get the former and Obama the latter.
107 Ernesto.
Of course, if the turnout is 41% (nearly 5% up on last time) then MORI predict a dead heat with 4% MoE (based on a poll that, it must be admitted, was taken some days ago), so:
A Boris (2nd preference) vote between 50.3 and 54.0 would be within the MoE of both polls …
102. A clock that is wrong is still right twice a day!
Very surprised at the Betfair move.
Who in their right mind thinks Ken is winning this?
High turnout - yes - but not in the right areas for Ken, sadly for him.
103 - She is reasonably secure, so I understand, in her CLP.
110 Tick tock …. Do you have horological tendencies …. in that loft ??
Probably a silly question, but if Boris wins does he become Mayor immediately the result is announced, or is there a set date for him to take over?
110 - If a clock is 5 minutes fast and is keeping time then it will alwasy be 5 minutes fast and ergo always wrong.
114 - 2 days grace I think
114 -Sunday night -I think?
And could differential turnout be key here, the turnout could be 40%+, but because more of Boris’ voters came out, he could still win by a larger margin?
113. No but I’m think of getting the rope in place should Ken win!
Conhome report - North London;
—————–
Working in a busy Constituency Office in North London. Early telling results coming in:
Meltdown in the Labour vote so far up here! All our supporters are turning out. Busy polling stations.
Posted by: Douglas X | May 01, 2008 at 13:41
110 - Eventually it would be right due to leap seconds, but lets not get way ahead of ourselves here!
There’s no way anyone can relax till about 9pm tonight, after which 98% of people will have voted.
6 hours to go!!!!
110 Surely not - if its running fast or slow it’s always giving the wrong time?
Are the figures for the London Assembly based on constituencies (in which case, they could be plausible in a polarised election) or the List, where they’re plainly implausible.
Sporting a decidedly gruesome umbrella and an even more unsavoury hangover, I slithered out of bed at 10 and went along to vote for Boris. Outside the tube station Conservative party greasemonkeys were inexorably shoving Back Boris leaflets into the hands of the outgoing and incoming commuters, and the zeal with which they thrusted was more than matched by the enthusiasm with which they were accepted. Not overly surprising given my constituency (City & East), but what was startling was how diverse the range of people taking them were - people of all ages and races. This was particularly heartening.
What made my day, however, wasn’t voting for the first time, but seeing a large group of students (and, I presume, fellow first time voters) storm into the polling station, with one intoning “right, let’s get rid of the bastard”. In terms of heart warming exercises, it beats watching The Sound of Music any day of the week. Boris is going to do it.
109, and if we loosely extrapolate that the first preferences change with turnout directly proportional to the second preferences in MORI’s data, then on a similar turnout, the following range should be compatible with both polls:
Boris: 40.5-43.5
Ken: 35.4-38.3
… but now we’re really getting into “just a bit of fun” territory
116
Does Lee Jasper have to wait until sunday before he gets sacked or does he automatically go as part of Livingstone’s baggage?
Anyway we should at least offer Lee a vote of thanks for his help in getting rid of Livingstone.
124. That’s a lovely story…
Particularly enjoyed this bit:
“What made my day, however, wasn’t voting for the first time, but seeing a large group of students (and, I presume, fellow first time voters) storm into the polling station, with one intoning “right, let’s get rid of the bastard”.
123 - Going by the parties listed in the detail figures I presume it asked about the list. I have doubts about it as well.
127 reminds me of the stories of people signing up in August 1914. For polling station read recruitment office. Ken as Kaiser Bill needs a little more imagination…
Just got back from voting. As some PBers know, I actually voted Green for my city council because our recyling facilities are terrible and the Tory candidate is not of the “vote Blue go Green” variety, to put it mildly.
If I lived in London I’d be voting Tory to the hilt.
Lovely day here, sun is shining and the turnout looks to be high. People coming and going out of my local polling station, never empty whilst I was there.
(I’m not one of those people who thinks high turnout favours one party over another, but it was good to see).
128 Looking at the details, it doesn’t specify if it’s constituency or list or if they just asked “Who would you vote for for the London Assembly?” without differentiating between the two.
131 But there’s simply no way the big two would get 73% between them for the list.
and with all these stories showing Boris has it in the bag the posters quietly slip away to Betfair and put a few quid savers on Ken .
Danger of group think….its close and all these anecdotes add up to absolutely nothing…I for one am suddenley getting collywobbles and thinking..oh f*** what if YouGov really are pants……modest dosh at stake only but massive emotional energy invested in getting rid of the Trot once and for all…Oh and I also really really want to read the Guardian and Independent on Saturday…the self-righteous condescension from that effete popinjay Steve Richards was awful..their sense of entitlement and unfounded superioty is breathtaking…the sort of bloke we used to take great delight in giving “wedgies” to at school…
131 - It’s hardly encouraging that the pollsters don’t understand the election.
Julia seems to be going round the blogs preparing the ground to defend MORI from the derision that could be coming their way tomorrow night.
133 - Mark I take it you think it is going to Livingstone rather than Boris?
133
It is a well known and accepted fact that Boris’ vote is more solid than Ken’s, so is it fair to say maybe Ken’s share has been overestimated for the third election running?
This would explain a sizeable percentage of that 73% that perhaps should not be there.
134 - In many ways the Indie piece was worst as the Guardian piece was just hilarious while Steve Richards’ was just breathtakingly smug.
136 I will be very surprised if it is Ken but I have no money in this market to worry about . I am still in the Clinton/Obama market now £ 150 green whoever wins .
131 - It didnt sepcify in the table the last time either when I know for sure it was a question about the constituencies that time (as I had taken part in the survey). So I dont think the wording above the table reveals anything. It’s just, for example, they had the ’stop the congestion charge’ party listed and they are, I think, only standing on the list rather than in the constituencies.
132 - I agree. (I hope!!!)
Superdelegate John Olsen of Connectecut is expected to endorse Hillary later today according to Mark Halperin of ‘Time’
135.
All Julia Clark is doing is explaining to a mostly ignorant media what poll numbers mean. She has consistently argued here that minor poll leads for either Ken or Boris show them ‘neck and neck’, and I fail to see why she or her company should be derided purely because they understand the maths behind the polls they produce.
138. For those who didn’t see it: the Independent actually endorsed the Green candidate, Sian Berry! Making them the only major newspaper to do so (although describing the Indie as a ‘major’ newspaper is probably stretching it a bit). They obviously called on their readers to give their second-preference votes to Ken, but it says something that they don’t think he should be their first choice…
140. If it’s based on the constituency vote, the poll is even more out of whack…
It implies only a 0.25% Tory swing, compared to 7.25% for Johnson.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Assembly_election,_2004
New Mason Dixson/WRAL Primary poll for North Carolina :
Clinton 42% .. Obama 49%
http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/2818209/
143 - The Observer pretty much backed a Sian 1, Ken 2 vote as well.
Any news yet on whether there will/will not be London exit polls?
Are people betting on the London Assembly seats? It’s not something I’ve seen discussed a lot.
Personally, I see Conservatives doing very well, Lib Dems doing well, Greens getting 2 Assembly seats, BNP failing to win a seat, with possibly one of the maveick candidates picking up one.
While I think Ken’ll win, Labour will do really poorly otherwise.
Anyway, all of this “polling station” evidence is Hokum.
I fought a marginal seat in 2005 - did really well until around 5.30pm when ALLLL the full-time working voters turned out and screwed us.
You can tell by the eye-contact.
148 - Ive been posting under the name of Rob, I didnt see you around, I’ll use Rob D now
133
Mark,you must be expecting some good results for the Lib Dems tonight after all those promising by-election results;what’s your forecast for Lib Dem seat gains and council gains?
Overall turnout at 1 sad to be 10 pc, a little over usual for locals. Info is third hand though
149 - But surely this is the time of day when Ken’s unemployed and yoof vote should be stacking up the lead for when people get home.
I’d be very unsurprised if turnout is between 35 and 40%
It certainly felt more local election than general election in my polling booth in a Labourite area.
Bad news for Labour Councillors in the North, Sky reporting Northern Rocks plans for 2000 redundancies
150.
Oh cripes, sorry; I tend not to register most poster’s names and didn’t even think they may be another Rob. I’ve changed my name too, so if you’d like to revert back to ‘Rob’ you can (I’m sure you’re a more long-standing and valued poster than I am/will be, so you should be free to have the name you want.)
Sorry again.
Now, there’s no Rob E’s I have to worry about is there?
147 PfP. ARSE.
151.
152. Nick - your post confused me. What is it you’re trying to say?
145. Cheers Jack. That sounds about (W)right although I’m not sure if it was polled before or after the press club appearance. Definitely a drift.
Noticed that the NC governor called for HRC too.
Might have a dabble at over 8’s
Useless andecdote #1002
Lunchtime p0ker 4:1 in favour of Ken.
BUT
The wives and girlfriends split in favour of “nice” Boris.
148. “When all else fails a complete inability to stare facts in the face will always see us through”
155 - It’s more like an instruction to the hobbies of people in the inner cities!
I need to go back to sleep with that level of comedy I think
40ish cockney couple behind me on penzance train. Her ‘i hope that boris gets in’. Him ‘yeah. Need a change. Whats the other ones name?’
155 - No I don’t really post much, will use Rob D from now on too. No worries or anything.
153. Yup. True.
It looks like what Labour voters that still exist are staying at home today.
162 Find out if they voted!
158 Ernesto. Over 8’s - easy !!
will we know the turnout numbers today or tomorrow?
151 I posted my forecasts for gains and losses on here the other day . Haven’t time to repeat it at the mo as I am at work .
1. and 3.
No, no, the Assembly ballot papers are put in the same box as the Mayoral ballot papers - they’re all sealed and taken to the three regional count centres to be opened tomorrow, from 8.30am.
So no assembly results tonight cos they’re not counted til tomorrow.
167. Turnout numbers for where? London? No - because they’re not being counted until tomorrow.
Well,well. Boris backers ain’t too confident at the moment. Price wobbling like the Millenium Bridge used to, I would say. Probably a good moment to back him, but who knows…
More importantly, 2.5 hours until Leeds find out how many if any points we’re getting back.
**bites fingers**
If we get none and Ken wins it will be a bloody long night in the office
170. Yes but ZanuLab know the result already.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 44%
McCain 46% .. Obama 43%
Clinton 46% .. Obama 44%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Overheard two pigeons sitting on the wall outside my bedroom window this morning at about 6.30am…
One of them cocked his head to his mate, blinked, made his mating call: “WOOOH-WOO-WOOOOOOH! WOOO WOOOOO!!”, pecked around a bit on the ground for some grain (sadly without finding anything) before opening his beak and saying: “That Livingstone is a right c**t isn’t he?”
The other female looked to her right, blinked, and said: “Yeah. Too right. I’m voting for Boris.” - before they both walked off down my street to the polling station.
This looks like it’s going to be a landslide defeat.
I’ll agree with JH on the danger of groupthink… but we’ve not had anyone here making a rational case for Ken being /ahead/, either.
Ugh. I stand to lose just over £300 if Ken scrapes in - my biggest ever exposure on a politics bet.
I’m a terrible wimp when it comes to betting - I almost always end up with an (almost) green book. But Betfair’s lay odds on Boris are around the 1.5 mark - just high enough to encourage me to hold my nerve and hang on to my little collection of betting slips for now.
My fingernails are going to be in a worse state than Gordon Brown’s by the end of tomorrow…
Weather watch Lewisham.
It’s not raining. Ken will be dancing in the streets.
New Rasmussem Primary Polls for Indiana and North Carolina :
Indiana - Clinton 46% .. Obama 41%
North Carolina - Clinton 37% .. Obama 51%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/indiana/indiana_democratic_primary
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/north_carolina_democratic_primary
175. Sounds more like a coup than an election.
156 Thanks, Jack, for confirming there will be an ARSE exit poll tonight - can’t wait.
I should point out, re my train anecdote, i am in first class. So these must b quite rich cockneys.
Squeaky bum time for any one-way Boris backers.I am still trying to smooth out as efficiently as possible.
177. There has been one shower at London bridge all day so I dont think weather is going to play a big part.
New Rasmussen Presidential Poll for New Hampshire :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 44%
McCain 51% .. Obama 41%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election2
175 Casino, before you receive a lifetime ban which must be edging ever closer, just thought I’d ask whether you’ve had had a serious bet on the outcome in London?
181 you mean there is another class? how strange
186 - yes, cattle, where us common Labour voters sit
A couple of observations if Boris wins
1 re 22.If Boris remains an MP for Henley even for a relatively short time ie 6 months to a year he risks being be branded a part time Mayor and part time MP
2.Boris could be the Tories achilles heel.If he cocks up then it will not give a good impression of Tories in government,thus weakening their claim to b etrhe next competent Government.
Mr Cameron will be keeping a very close eye on him.
3If Boris wins Lytton Crosby will be running the Crewe and Nantwich by election campaign.Lib Dems beware!
rogerh
186. I always wondered where that smell was coming from..a “second” class…will wonders never cease..
Insider Advantage poll in NC
Clinton 44-Obama 42.
“a look at the crosstabs reveals only a 64-20 percent preference for Obama among black voters. Not credible. Still, the race has clearly tightened considerably in the past few days.”
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDIxYjZmZjgzOWE1YTVkMGIzYTE5MDhkNWVlY2UyMjE=
185. OOOOOH!! You’re a bit of a sensitive soul, aren’t you Peter? This isn’t the first time we’ve crossed swords.
Do you have a pigeon for a wife or something?
You must be one of the very few Tories I know without a sense of humour!
And, to answer your question, yes - I have 500 quid on Boris
189. what are these train things, i take my own jet
Dark clouds and sunshine over west London. Even the gods can’t make their minds up on this one.
182 why? all the signs seem positive for Boris, judging by the blogs. If Labour don’t have tellers, how are they getting their vote out?
192. Hehehe!
188.
Re 1. I am sure he will cope
Re 2. Boris could equally be a huge success and a constant thorn in McSporran’s side…
Cant wait..
Salmonds to the Left of him..BoJo’s to the Right, Davey C squishing him once a week right slap banng in front of his face and Lefty MP’s terrified for their jobs and kicking him up his derriere…
One could almost feel sorry for him…almost..
175/79 - Brilliant.
Sounds like a coup.
**snorts milk over keyboard**
Any more pointless anecdotes from polling stations? I should be asleep ready for a night’s work but elections always keep me awake for a ridiculous number of hours.
194. Tellers are a ridiculous waste of resources. Here’s how Labour get their vote out: they ask their voters whether or not they’ve voted and - radical idea, I know - if they say “I have”, they believe them!
176…don’t panic!
189 are these the same people who turn right when getting onto a plane?
191 Actually my post was intended as a joke, but clearly you didn’t take it as such.
Good luck with the bet anyway.
200. They put people back there?..I though thats where they put the bags and servants..
193. This is Ascension Day, the 4th(-ish) most holy day of the Christian calendar. How will that affect the Christian Choice vote?
201. Peter - a joke about a lifetime ban?!?! Sorry… that one slipped me by!
Apologies for the misunderstanding - must be your Pigeon English
203 - It’s also May Day - what impact for the Left List?!
203
He got my second vote.
200. You’re a pilot !?
203. For Ken, it’s going to be descension day, a la the final scene of Don Giovanni
News from Barnet: very quiet.
Back from the afternoon shift Telling in the OL burbs …..
It remains Conservative pledge cards a go go even in our less weaker postal districts.
Unless the turn out in Inner London is unbelievably high (ours are up on May ‘06)this could be a rout.
Squashed newt time - love it.
or even ‘weaker’ (not less weaker !)
The perspicacious Tamzin in the Speccie sums up the Conservatives lines for tomorrow night:
Plan A — We reveal just how closely involved Dave was in planning victory, including those brainstorming lasagne suppers in full. Lines to take: Boris is greatest Tory since Churchill. Brandon Finlay, strategic genius, announced as our general election campaign manager and PPC for Henley.
Plan B — We reveal how Dave was sceptical from the start but talked round by a member of his inner circle (to be decided — poor Gids!). Lines to take: Finlay is a right-wing headbanger who will never advise this great party again; Boris appointed head of social justice subcommittee on impact of free bus travel for the elderly.
202 well i always wondered about the smell coming from that bit behind the curtain. oh well you learn something every day
207 sad lefty
Beelzeboris walks the earth? (I hear he cycles occasionally)?
204 Casino - yep, it’s what we PBers call “gallows humour”
If things don’t go to well for Gordo in two years time, he could consider doing this: of course it would be better to do it now.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7376608.stm
It could only happen in Italy.
217 - the difference is, in Italy, they did it on purpose. In this counrty, it would happen by accident.
217 If anyone want a CD with details on send an SAE to ….
214. Why the name-calling? I called you a P-I-L-O-T, as in airline pilot. The planes I’ve flown in lately have the door at the front - with only the cockpit to the left.
188-I don’t remember anyone suggesting Ken was a part-time mayor for not giving up his seat until 2001.
Still lovely and sunny here in Swansea. Hopefully we can get rid of the woeful Welsh Lib Dems here. Though the way things are going we’d be lucky to win a raffle, let alone an election.
Anyway, good luck to you all. I shall rejoin (if, when?) the gloating is over! I am a delicate flower, you see.
[217] Jolly good show! I’ll vote for a party that promises to do that here
BTW, Coldstone, my Italian contacts are pretty relaxed about Berlusconi - they think he hasn’t got the application to bring in a police state.
Tory voter here.
Got this funny feeling that this is going to be a 1992 but the other way round.
I pray not. Anyone else share that feeling?
188.
Don’t see why Boris should stand down from Henley and cause a tricky by-election if he wins. Ken didn’t - he waited two years until the general election of 2001. My advice to the Tories would be to do the same. The only beneficiaries of a by-election could be the LibDems. (Incidentally Salmond remains the MP for Banff & Buchan despite being First Minister of Scotland and MSP for Gordon!)
224 - No
I’ve just been out for a couple hours. Is there any reason why the Boris price has eased and Ken has moved in?
224 Jondo - No, not in London anyway. Bojo is still a short odds-on favourite. Keep the faith!
221. Ken was an Independent then - so there wasn’t any partisan point to be made by mentioning it.
224: The general story presented off the blogs is of a close contest, so no.
227 - you’ve been out?! Who’s been steering this thing?
224 - “Got this funny feeling that this is going to be a 1992 but the other way round.”
Could well be. Labour vote definitely seems to be out to keep Livingstone in (as reflected in the betting).
Oh dear, my 1st class remark seems 2 hav stirrd the pot. If it helps, i usually travel 2nd. But today tom knox had some foreign rights offers. $200,000. So tom and i r living it up. Hope that helps.
Evening Standard spins the poll as it’s close. Perhaps that why?
227. Not that we’ve been able to figure out, no.
Not good for the nerves though, is it?
Quiet in the polling stations of Sutton at present.
Needs to be an afterwork effect or turnout will be down.
225. “(Incidentally Salmond remains the MP for Banff & Buchan despite being First Minister of Scotland and MSP for Gordon!)”
Yes, and the Conservatives are the ones who make the most fuss about it.
233 Do we get royalties for all the title consultancy work?
233 $200K! Sounds like those tax cedits from that nice Mr Brown will be coming to an end.
233. Sean, why do you have a baby “t” today?
224.More like 1997 but the other way around..my collywobbles have gone.. when I remembered that every phone pollster seriously overstated Leavingsoon last time and even YouGov overestimated him a bit…Given its been so long since Conservatives were in with a real chance its understandable there will be nerves…
224. No Mr.A.turfer
233. I’ve only travelled in first on a train once, and that was unintentional. Some vandals had thrown a brick through the driver’s window of the train I was on, so we all got squeezed on to the next available train, some of us in the first class section.
The only difference I noticed was 1st class had curtains.
223
Im off to Sorento in July, hope the streets aren’t running with blood.
I never knew my Italian father-in-law, he died before I met my wife, a lovely man apparently.
I’m still pretty new on this blogging thingy, so pardon another silly question. I understand what an ‘astroturfer’ is from the contexts, but how did the phrase originate?
John Loony.AS discussed on here, any chance at 10.01 of posting your earlier info. and conclusions on the postal votes in your area? Or are you tied up in the count somewhere? You will be giving much pleasure to us idiots who are going to be up all night.
I think if the BoJo wins and the Tories do well, it could be a feeling akin to that reached sometime in the mid 1990s when you knew there would be a change of government and that that bunch of crooks led by the evil grinning one were going to win.
241
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
245 - Wikipedia is your friend
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfer
243. Upgraded on midland mainline for a fover at the weekend once. Bigger seats and tea and coffee (which i don’t drink) were the only differences I noticed.
Feel like all this is passing me by today with no elections in my patch. Oh well.
Yes. I think i might now b outwith the tax credit bracket. Tom knox doesnt even know what tax credits ARE.
240. Perhaps because you have to type your name in from scratch again when you switch pseudonyms??
225 The key difference is that Ken was a London MP, Boris is an Oxfordshire MP.
“John McCain has won the 2008 Presidential Election (according to leaked results)”
252 Good spot!
143. it says they have a basic grasp of the voting system
253 True but Henley isn’t far distant. There are probably some parts of Greater London no further from Henley than Brent East (maybe exaggerating a bit, but you get my point). Plus lots of Henley constituents will be London workers anyway.
Why people thinks Boris has already won?
I think the Evening Standard and the Boris supporters will be in for a big surprise… Nuff Said!!!
227) Mike.
I think we here underestimated the effect of the ES’s “ITS VERY CLOSE!” headlines at lunchtime. This was new news to a lot of people…
252 …. or just maybe seanT, sorry I mean Seant, has bought himself a new laptop with his new found wealth.
258 - So Livingstone is going to win, and quite handsomely at that?
The move away from Boris on betfair doesn’t look substantial enough to be based on solid info. Looks more of a correction as 1.27 was really poor value based on what we know at the moment.
This is all very reminiscent of Bush, Kerry. I got 7-2 on Bush that night. I hope history doesn’t repeat itself with the incumbant fightback!!
The really sad truth is that the bugger is on his IPhone and we’ve all gone and drawn attention to it.
No mystery re my name. Posting by fone from train. Quicker. No wifi in great western posho class! Scandal. Tom knox not impressed.
258. I dont know..UG…why you thinks he hasnt…
Well I’m off.
Either tonight we will have the Tories first significant electoral win in 16 YEARS
or
Labour will show a trend bucking result signaling that a 4TH TERM is not out of reach
or
Perhaps it will be 50:50!
257. Just managed to sneak away from a business meeting long enough to vote for Boris. Crazy that I get a vote based on my owning a flat I only use a few times a year…but hey, they all count!
Did you see this comment on Guido’s blog, Mike?
“disillusioned kennite said…
It’s all over.
Ken has already conceded defeat to his closest lieutenants this morning. He expects to be at least 5% behind Johnson at the final reckoning.”
268 - I’d take with a pinch of salt to be honest.
268 I see the Bob Marshall Andrews School is alive and well. They’ve not stopped voting yet!
267 - it still p1sses me off that those of us who commute in, spend most of our lives in this city, don’t get to vote, at all (unless we buy some kind of crash pad. Still, if property prices come down enough over the next year or two, might be tempting).
The Betfair betting is pure farce, people are following the money like blind bats. How can Boris be 1.42 against Ken at 3.2, who are these people backing Boris at 1.42?
If I had a spare £10,000 I could maniplulate the market to my advantage.
3.4 on betfair for Ken is a Brilliant price.
268 - I wouldn’t believe anything posted on Guido’s comments, especially that!
268. I too dismissed that…wishful thinking from the Right this time..lots of it from the left so far today but I guess they are not alone.
268. I’m not sure how seriously I’d take that. probably priming himself as the comeback kid in case he does win.
Two threads ago 257. 223 Won’t pretend that I’m going to lose sleep because the BNP is not going to have the benefit of your vote.
That said, I do think it’s a rotten shame that there isn’t some way to 1) be issued a replacement ballot in person or via fax, email attachment or website; and 2) to cast a provisional ballot at the polls.
Apologize in advance if these things can be done (does John Loony have his ears on?) under the current system.
I think that it *is* possible to get a replacement postal vote for one which has been lost. You have to go and declare and sign something or other, and your original vote will be cancelled (if it turns up it can be identified by the serial number on the envelope without even opening it, and then it can be discarded in favour of the replacement).
One thread ago 119. What are the rules on campaigning on election day? Only there were people leafleting for the Greens and Left List at my tube station this morning - I thought there was a moratorium on this sort of thing?
No - campaigning is fine. The moratorium applies to broadcasting, so on the news they just say “It’s the election today and people are voting” without anything meaningful.
132. AFAIK, it isn’t possible to vote tactically against the BNP - or any other Party - in the list section of the GLA.
It is not possible to vote tactically to prevent the BNP from winning a seat, but it is possible to vote tactically to make it more difficult for the BNP to win a *second* seat. If you vote for a party which wins seats, it increases the threshold for a second seat, and if you vote for a party which doesn’t win seats then you increase the % vote for the “others” and thereby reduce the % needed for each of the top-up seats.
For example, in 2000 and 2004, 85.2% and 87.4% of the votes were cast for the parties which got seats, so the maximum % needed for each seat was 3.277% and 3.362%. If Respect and the BNP had each got 5% and won a seat in 2004, then 96.9% of the votes would have been for the parties with seats, so the % of votes neede by the biggest parties for each seat would have been higher. In other words, if the BNP and Respect had won 1 seat each, it would have been more “expensive” (in terms of votes) for the Labour and Liberal Democrats to “buy” each of their top-up seats, and they would have been able to “afford” one seat fewer each.
192. Assuming they gain 1 (Enfield/Haringay) that takes them to 10 Constituency seats. In order to gain a list seat they need at least 11/25 (presumably) ie over 45%. Last time they got 28% so I dont really see it happening.
It’s not 11/25, it’s 11/26 (maximum) plus remainders, which in reality means about 11/27 or 11/28, and that is out of the total of votes for parties with seats, not including the votes for minor parties. So in 2004 (for example) it would have been 11/26 of 87.4%, not 11/26 of 100%. in other words, it would be possible for the Conservative Party to get 11 seats with substantially less than 44% of the votes, and possibly with less than 40%.
198. Does anyone know the numbers for Enfield+Haringey? i.e. why is it assumed that this constituency will change hands?
Enfield and Haringey in 2004 was Labour 33,955 (29.2%) Conservative 32,380 (27.9%) etc.
237. Not a secret ballot. Your voter number is being writen on a form alongside the reference number for each voting form.
In other words, they are using exactly the same system as has been used in every election since 1872.
282. Do we get the London Assembly results tonight? Or does that wait until tomorrow like the Mayoral contest as well?
No and yes respectively.
This thread 60. What was Labour’s Assembly vote share last time? YouGov is saying 33%, seems a bit high.
It was 25.0%
62. Con 27.8
Lab 24.4
LD 16.5
Grn 8.4
BNP 4.7
UKIP 8.2
You appear to have taken those figures from Wikipedia, which is wrong because they only add up to 97.7%. The correct figures for 2004 are Con 28.5% Lab 25.0% LD 16.9% Green 8.6% UKIP 8.4%.
246. John Loony.AS discussed on here, any chance at 10.01 of posting your earlier info. and conclusions on the postal votes in your area? Or are you tied up in the count somewhere? You will be giving much pleasure to us idiots who are going to be up all night.
Certainly not. It’s more likely to be at 10:10 or 10:20
272. No people are making rational, educated and informed decisions based on considerable gambling experience, all the available data and some small element of instinct..what are you doing troll boy.
273. Good for you..I take the same approach to your posts.
272. Why not be honest and call yourself ‘true ramper’ instead?
Afternoon all. News from the London Elections…….
The campaigning is all but over and the voting has begun, as Barnet residents visited more than 100 polling stations around the borough today.
Barnet Council chief executive Leo Boland visited the station in his capacity as the borough’s returning officer, the official in charge of the logistics of the election, and said he anticipates a “relatively high” turn out.
“Last time it was about 38 percent,” he said. “I couldn’t give precise figures but my suspicion is it will be higher than that this time.
He also said that thousands of residents have elected to use a postal vote. “We issued 34,000 postal ballots to people out of 200,000-odd registered voters and they’ll still be coming in today. We’ve had about 20,000 back.”
The Conservative candidate for the council’s Hale ward by-election, 21-year-old Tom Davey, was at the polling station in Selvage Lane all morning, after a 5am start canvassing voters.
He said he believes the scales in Hale were tipping towards his party, perhaps predictably, but also said a “surprising” number of people told him they had voted for the BNP.
http://www.hendontimes.co.uk/display.var.2240735.0.the_election_begins.php
VOTERS have been urged to be vigilant after a far right party came close to out-shining Ken Livingstone in a Bexley Times poll held during this week’s London Mayoral Election.
The British National Party (BNP) scooped support from 12 per cent of shoppers in Bexleyheath Broadway on Tuesday.
The support for BNP candidate, Richard Barnbrook, was almost as high as Mayor Ken Livingstone’s 19 per cent backing.
Both were trounched by the Conservative Party’s Boris Johnson, who received 55 per cent of the votes from our poll of ninety traders and residents.
However, almost a third of those asked said they would not vote. They were not included in our poll.
http://www.bexleytimes.co.uk/content/bexley/times/news/story.aspx?brand=BXYOnline&category=news&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newsbxy&itemid=WeED01%20May%202008%2011%3A36%3A44%3A883
Some amazing reports coming in from the London campaign this morning. Following on from our own Lee Barnes’ brilliant performance on Africa Radio last night there was an interesting incident in Abbey Green. Veteran British Nationalist Colin Smith and his leafleting team were stopped by an African Pastor, who having announced his intention to vote for Richard Barnbrook, gave our people a blessing in the street.
http://simondarby.blogspot.com/
I was queueing up outside my polling station at 06:57am today, only to discover that they had sneakily opened up a side door out to the car park instead of opening the front door. So I was only the third person to vote instead of the first.
I had great fun spoiling my Mayoral election ballot paper - something I have never done before. Anyone who is at the Croydon & Sutton count (and who has been paying attention to my recent political development) should be able to recognise it when it comes up on the screen.
280 - What is your recent political development JohnLoony?
279 - Trust a racist fool to cause side-scrolling. Ignoramus.
252, 255. I would suggest it could be Ave It, but SeanT is an Obamacan!
271 - Maybe they can introduce a scheme whereby non-Londoners can get a vote in the Mayoral election in return for volunteering to pay the GLA precept with their council tax bill?
279. It would be hilarious if Labour came behind the BNP (preferably on about 1%) but somehow, I just can’t see it.
I voted at 8.30am - turnout was brisk at the West Chesteron ward in Cambs.
284 - doesn’t seem too unfair. I think I’d go for that.
287 - Heck, I’d sell you my vote for half the precept!
yeah you can have mine as well for the other half - the power!
284. Surely that would end up with rich Tories being more able to afford to vote!
“You appear to have taken those figures from Wikipedia, which is wrong because they only add up to 97.7%. The correct figures for 2004 are Con 28.5% Lab 25.0% LD 16.9% Green 8.6% UKIP 8.4%.”
They match these..
http://www.londonelects.org.uk/results/2004_london_assembly_results.aspx
So what happened to the other 2.3%?
Are these people who didn’t cast a list vote? Spolied ballots?
What a ridiculous way to report election results…
The ERS support your figures John, [error on page, 2004 not 2000] so I guess they were the effective vote percentages used to determine the top-ups.
Minimal practical difference, though…
this will delay the commuters back to the southwest boroughs - less time to vote on the walk home
Train services at London Waterloo via Wimbledon have been disrupted due to lightning having damaged equipment.
Engineers have worked as fast as possible to restore services to normal. Short notice alterations, cancellations and delays of up to 60 minutes can be expected.
290 - It would if such a silly suggestion was ever adopted!
291. sorry, forgot the ERS link…
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/article.php?id=68
288, 289 - get in touch with Lord Ashcroft. I’m sure he can arrange something….
John Loony.Many thanks- looking forward to it.
Just voted Boris in Catford - no tellers! and we’ve only had 1 leaflet the whole campaign - from Labour!! Nyway done my bit here - fingers crossed for Bojo
Am I alone in thinking that the Welsh local elections are possibly as significant - if not more - than the London elections?
For the Tories, given their failure to revive in Scotland, a good result in Wales will be vital to underpinning their claim to be a national (ie UK) party. There will also be a lot riding on the results for Plaid Cymru - will their cohabitation with Labour hurt them - or enhance their credibility? I’d suggest that the battle in North Wales between Plaid and Tories should be particularly significant.
Any views?
Are the Welsh councils being counted overnight?
272. LOL!!
Anyone with a brain can read between the lines here…
Unknown posters, unknown names, desperately trolling that Livingstone will win.
I think that tells us all we need to know about this election.
285 - It would be tragic if the BNP came close to the vote of a real party.
301: Yeah, some people seem to lose track of reality and sense on here, such is their hatred for Labour. No, no it wouldn’t be funny if what is essentially a fascist party beat a mainstream party. It’d be incredibly worrying for the state of politics in this country.
288. I am sick of reading stuff from out of towners from Aylesbury or Reading or wherever demanding a vote… Do they support a boundary extension to their areas? Fine. They will pay the GLA precept and the riches of Bucks or Surrey or Berks or wherever will help support London. Great idea. Let’s expand London! Let’s do it!
303 - we already discussed paying the GLA precept. Fine by me. Do keep up.
What is wrong with hating Labour? The media elite don’t apologise for hating the Tories.
I bumped into an interesting chap when leafleting at lunch time.
I reminded him that it was election day and offered him a BoJo leaflet. He initially said that he’d be voting for ‘the other man’ (Livingstone) because ‘he needs the money for his ex-wives and kids’.
Then he got serious. Turns out he fought on the streets of Budapest in 1956, and will never vote for (and I quote) ‘a filthy red’ - he spat on the floor as he said it! He thought Livingstone had changed, but the deals with Chavez made him realise he was wrong - chalk one up for BoJo.
So there you go - yet another good reason to vote for Boris.
304. I see you are happy to pay your precept. Are you happy to be annexed by London? If so, then fair enough!
298 - I have been recommissioned to write the Welsh constituency profiles for Dods based on the new boundaries so I will certainly be looking at the local election results closely. The boundary changes initially looked to be bad for Plaid Cymru but of course any major decline in Labour’s strength will be fascinating.
I’ll also be looking at RCT since that has been swinging in the win the last decade. Plaid won awards for their running of the council but still lost it last time. It will be interesting to see if they can make progress there this year.
The Tories should gain Vale of Glamorgan.
Blaenau Gwent should complete a lock-out of Labour in the area by the Peter Law memorial Independents (Blaenau Gwent People’s Voice).
The closeness of the 2007 vote nationwide between Plaid and the Tories suggested strongly that Nick Bourne had stopped the Conservative rot so today will be very interesting.
307 - I think you’ll find it would be more of a reverse takeover. Ho ho.
290. Yes, so what?
301. I was more hoping Labour would decline to the BNP’s level rather than the BNP rise to Labour’s…
302: The BNP aren’t fascists, they are just a load of petty racists. Putting them in the same class as the successful European fascists of the 40s, or even the BUF gives them far too much credibility.
If Britain didn’t go fascist when much of Europe did in the 1940s it won’t go that way under a joke like Nick Griffin.
305 - Hating Labour has to be tempered with hating extremists more. I hate communists, despots and fascists. I merely dislike parts of the Labour/Lib Dem and Tory parties.
What time can we expect the results for Mayoral election?
benbobjim
Did I read earlier that you are in Ealing? If so, whereabouts? And what is your reading of how it is going there?
I’m in Cleveland (just off Pitshangar Lane) - I’m sure they’ve misjudged it, but the Returning Officer reckoned turnourt was at GE levels!!
309.
305. Agreed I hate Labour and the pandering to the work shy, something for nothing, catastrophic waste of tax payers money culture it represents.
However, though entirely misguided in the best way to achieve productive success for this country, the party is broadly well intentioned and fair minded. Accordingly, in no way would it be funny or a good thing for a national socialist party preaching hate to come anywhere near them in the polls.
I’ve just had a nightmare. My vote for the Lib Dems means they get most list votes and I get bombarded with bar charts saying that despite winning no seats and getting 12% of the mayoral vote the Lib Dems ‘Won here’.
**goes for a lie down**
316. Labour preaches hate a fair bit too, doesn’t it? Have a re-read of the deeply unpleasant stuff about Boris Johnson written by Labour hacks today and over recent weeks. Or the thinky disguised anti-semitic attacks on Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin. The difference between them and the BNP isn’t that large.
If you all want to know where it is raining, go here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html
311: I’d suggest that you go and read some of their manifestos on their website, but I read somewhere that, of all the parties theirs is the most visited website. I won’t encourage more traffic.
But if you do go there, you’d be able to stare, mouth agape, at some real life fascists. The racism, the authoritarianism, the economic populism is all there, as well as the idealised version of a Britain that never existed that all those nasty immigrants destroyed. They’re genuine fascists, and they’re probably going to have a seat on the London assembly. I know the assembly has very little real power, but it’ll be a sad day for British politics regardless.
318. Good point, I was thinking of Ed Balls and Hazel Bluurgghs as I wrote that so on second thoughts I concur that labour can be as intemperate and unpleasant in their languag as teh BNP..it sjust as regards class rather than race.
In other news.. shock Boris Johnson endorsement
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481542-details/Comment%3A+London%27s+choice%3A+Boris+Johnson/article.do
298 & 308 Cardiff. As mentioned the Tories will do well, but the shocker is the BBC’s man saying Labour could come third! They had a majority on the Council four years ago. At that rate even Cardiff West and South come into view. Cardiff Lib Dem majority very much on the cards today.
Swansea as you were. Vale Tory gain with something to spare.
Newport goes to NOC. Strong Tory and Lib Dem performances expect a coalition between the two as they both concentrate on either West or Eas Newport.
298. Well, the media don’t think they’re important - I haven’t seen a single Wales-only opinion poll.
Apparently Labour’s broadcast for the Welsh elections was aimed mainly against the Lib Dems.
317. Lie down?
I’d need therapy after a dream like that..
318: Oh jesus. Really, people like you are the reason I don’t often wade into the comments here and generally stick to Mike’s excellent analysis of polls. Most posters of all stripes are generally fair minded and accepting that, for perfectly legitimate reasons, people hold different political beliefs. It’s a part of life. And then we get someone like you, Harry, who comes along and claims that an ill thought through ad campaign (that never saw the light of day officially, lest we forget) and Labour supporters in the press committing heinous crime of not supporting Boris Johnson is only slightly better than promising in campaign literature to offer non-whites “generous” payouts for them to “go home”.
Idiot.
318. this is a ludicrous overstatement that does you no credit. Lab are absolutely nothing like the BNP. Both the main parties have, very occasionally, been tempted to play some pretty unpleasant cards under the banner of pragmatism, but they have never been anything like as nasty as the BNP always is.
Thankfully it has usually been proven to be a mistake.
Love the way CNN describe the London Mayoral Election.
“Mavericks battle for London, an eccentric duo” !!!!!
Tell you, outside London “we aint bovered”
325. Oh dear, the Labour hacks seem very touchy today. I wonder why?
321et al-Labour and the left’s class hate is always deemed acceptable. Actually, so is their race hate. So long as the object of their race hate aren’t black or Muslim. Hence, it’s perfectly ok to hate Jews, Americans, etc.
btw-Does Class War (the movement so beloved of middle class students) still exist?
remember that that bnp are only getting votes because of Labours lies over immigration. i dont agree with them but bnp support is solely down to labour policy.
Just read through various bits of anti-Boris outrage on the Guardian. They complain about Standard & Mail but the cumulative effect of all that invective is so close to that we get from Hitches, Heffer and co. that it reads like Tabloid rather than Berliner fare.
I had a soft spot for my compatriot Alan Rusbridger (born only a few months before me in same place) but what has he allowed the Guardian to become? Poor old Rusty Rusbridger, lion killer and chief of Northern Rhodesian education must be looking down in horror at what his son has done to a fine newspaper.
320: Fascism is more than a bit of racism attached to authoritarianism and populism.
The best way to destory the BNP is to let people found out what a joke they are.
329-Actually the LDs are probably even worse. In 1990 they ran a racist campaign in thr Ribbel Valley by-election, followed in 1992 by their immortal campaign in Cheltenham.
You can never beat a LD for po-faced hypocrisy.
Betfair price still steady so obviously no proper info about the votes out yet.
re: Wales
I think in North Wales, it will be complicated. Plaid will retain Gwynedd and Labour will lose Flintshire, their last council outside the Valleys of the South. It will register gains for all others and the Tories need to show they are continuing their success in Delyn at the last Assembly elections where they came close. Wrexham will stay NOC.
Denbighshire should see gains for the Tories and Labour losses but will stay NOC. Look for good Tory performances in Prestatyn and the well-heeled villages of the lower Vale of Clwyd that were previously Independent.
Conwy will stay NOC as well. This should be extremely good ground for the Conservatives and along with the Vale of Glamorgan and Monmouthshire should be naturally Tory territory. However, many Tory wards vote Independent in the council. They may gain a few but have picked rather odd candidates in some wards and in otehrs incumbent Tory councillors aren’t even speaking to eachother and refused a joint address. They may well lose. I think the Tories will get a couple more whereas they should do far better here. An overhall of the association is badly needed here.
Just voted in Barnet. Very busy polling station in New Barnet. Had five leaflets from the Conservatives in this campaign alone, including a ward newsletter this morning. Only Conservatives telling, and we got knocked up at 10 am. Nothing from any other party. But here it is a tory stronghold, they control most of the local Council seats (all except 2 or 3 I think). I know that Chipping Barnet has one of the strongest Conservative Associations in London - they even have more than one branch per ward, which is unheard of in London. Right back to revision. Not had any literature from Labour or the Lib Dems.
328 - Sadly for you, I’m neither a member of the Labour party nor have I ever voted for them, nor do I intend to today. I’m probably as pissed off by this government as you are.
329 - Examples of the Labour party advocating the hatred of jews please. And Americans for that matter.
308 Thanks David: that is very interesting. It seems to me that while the Tories have broken through in some areas and be gaining momentum(Pembrokeshire, Monmouth) they seem to be struggling in N Wales with two unconvincing wins in Clwyd West despite this area traditionally being good for them.
I also wonder if the LibDems may have a nasty surprise in some of their rural seats - squeezed by Plaid and Tories?
Interesting times and a potentially very fluid and unsettling political situation in Wales.
329 / 333 - Yes every party is racist and hateful except yours. Time for a lie down in a dark room maybe?
‘A Labour government has got to take on the people who obstruct it, arresting them if necessary’ Valerie Veness
I imagine the BNP would probably agree with that approach, too.
301. Well said. We should remember we all fought on the same side against their ilk, red and blue.
314. I’m in South Ealing Guy. Busy through the gates by 9am, and I had to queue for a minute or two, which I have never ever had to do in a local poll before. The lady said it was busy there. I guess Ealing is a split area so a good turnout wouldn’t favour either my lad or yours though.
Think GE levels in London are about 60 per cent? I very much doubt we’ll get that but if we do get 45-55 per cent the mayoral system will surely be extended to Greater Manchester, Greater Newcastle etc? Thoughts?
As Berlusconi takes over in Italy the weather has improved significantly and as the weather forecast for the weekend is also good its odds on that Boris will win. Vote Johnson and bring back global warming - all this “fighting climate change” by Ken has sent the sun packing from our great city.
331
The paper only survives on the back of the millions it receieves from this government in advertising revenue, for all those public sector non jobs,once that’s gone it’s living on borrowed time.
338 see 332.
Re Lib Dems and rural. Scarcely surprising if Plaid put the squeeze on in Ceredigion. 2005 was a huge shock and they mean business. Elsewhere they don’t really exist in rural area apart from Montgomeryshire. There the Tories may well show progress..
LABOUR’S PRIVATE POLLSTER SAY PATRIOTS WILL WIN AT LEAST ONE SEAT
According to reports, Labour’s private pollsters have said that, for the first time, the rightwing British National Party (BNP) could win at least one seat in the London Assembly, the 25-strong city parliament.
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/202649,local-elections-in-britain-seen-as-test-for-brown–summary.html
When talking about the Patriots can we stop all this Fascist/Authoritarian nonsense.
The first thing the Patriots would do is introduce a ‘first amendment’ type free speech law. We’re also opposed to I.D cards, excessive CCTV, innocent people on DNA database, everybody’s medical records on a mass NHS database, 42 days detention, private organisations using Government databases, rendition flights, school children using fingerprints to register or claim meals/books etc, etc, etc….
By all means attack us on our tough but fair immigration policy, our lower taxes policy, our life meaning life prison policy, our protecting of the green-belt, our policy of castrating paedophiles, our policy of promoting British culture……….but there is no need to tell lies.
Can someone please confirm that the Welsh votes will be counted overnight?
340 - Get Gordon Brown saying that then I might concede you have a point. Quoting members of militant (I assume, I’m not as up on my Labour history as you are) doesn’t prove anything about the Labour party then or now. We could talk about the Monday Club if you like?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7375892.stm
Not till Friday.
337. i doubt that - you aren’t pissed off enough to make up a smear campaign equating them to the BNP are you?
339
Nothing beats the Smethwick by-election of the 1960s for racism. poor Patrick Gordon Walker.
(It was Conservative racism ).
It makes all the rest look like a strom in a teacup.
Personally I think Heffer /White and other commentators have descended to Daily Mirror/Mail journalism without the deep analysis both the Mirror and Mail are justly proud of.
Update from ladbrokes.
I would say that punters have split about 70-30 for Ken so far today. That is mainly a reflection of where we are in the market, but it still surprises me that we have seen so little interest in Boris.
Wales- some are counting tonight i.e. Cardiff, Newport, Denbs others such as Conwy, Powys are tomorrow.
343 - The Grauniad is actually propped up by Auto Trader and the MEN. Think about that next time you want to flog a second hand car…
Just wanted to interrupt this thread with a betting question!
I come from a p*ker background when it comes to gambling, so I’v always trying to work out expected value of bets. obviously that’s easy when it comes to p*ker, because you know or can make a reasonable guess at so many of the variables.
When it comes to political betting ,i think I’ve made the error of looking at polls like 52/48 where the odds are 0.4-1 and 3-1 and thinking “wow, incredible value for a 48% Expected Value”. Hence my bets on John Kerry in 2004.
Obviously though if polls are showing a lead one way, then there’s a range of probabilities that apply to that lead, based around standard deviation, I guess.
So when looking for value in head to head races, is there a way of using the polling datas standard deviation to create an estimate of expected value (so you can calculate that a poll showing a 3% lead indicates a 66-33 balance of probabilities, while a 4% equals 75-25, or somesuch)? or am i just being really thick?
‘I just long for the day I wake up and find that the Saudi Royal Family are swinging from lamp-posts’
Another rather unsavoury comment from a Labour candidate who funnily enough is standing for re-election today.
News from Sutton
Queuing up in quite a few polling stations now.
The afterwork vote is coming to the party…
350
Even a storm…
[318] Rant mode on/ Even though I am pretty anti-Labour, I find this comment as offensive as it is wrong. There is all the difference in the world between the periodic gaffes of Tory, Labour or even Liberal Democrats and the deep seated racism of the BNP-NF etc. The attacks that are made against Democratic parties are usually along the lines that their ideas/polices etc might be construed as helping racists- that is bad enough. It is quite another thing to say that they *are* racists. The thuggish and moronic nastiness that comes out from the BNP-NF is nothing like the occasionally inappropriate comments made by Boris, Ken or anyone else.
The knockabout fun we have on this site is rooted in the fact that however much stick we give each other, a fair few of us meet up a few times a year and have plenty of drinks in thoughtful and convivial company. However, I do not think the -probably fictitious- BNP poster here would be too welcome. Our country fought the bloodiest war in its history against that kind of stuff, so when these low-lifes wrap themselves in the flag and call themselves “patriots” I feel little more than disgust. /rant mode off.
Good luck to those fighting seats across the country today, naturally I will be rooting for the Lib Dem corner but I await results with interest and a certain amount of hope. Good Luck all.
Thanks Rob D and Matt. Basically there isn’t that much to stay up for then, is there?
337-We had the thinly veiled anti-Semitic posters with Letwin and Howard, but perhaps as Jews are white they don’t count as racist. I think anti-Americanism is rife in the Labour party, and especially in the wider leftist world.
399-Actually I wish the Tories were more racist, but “Call me Dave” seems to have quietened down that end of the spectrum.
351) - Hi Shadsy, what about comparative amounts of money? - vs punter numbers?
339: All parties step over the racism line occasionally.
345: You can’t be a British patriot and be intolerant, dishonest, and look like Darwin was wrong about the survival of the fittest.
334. How could there be any solid info about the polls? As we have observed all along, the result is highly likely to be decided on differential turnout between the two candidates in different areas.
Many places in London are strongly in favour of one or other candidate, and all the anecdotes on this thread back this up - but we can’t draw any meaningful conclusions. We don’t even know enough to say with any degree of certainty what a high turnout in a given area would mean for the two main candidates (in some cases we might guess, of course).
All the existing rough metrics that are used (i.e. high turnout favours Cons, inner London favours Lab, postal votes favour Lab, old people favour Con, etc. etc.) go out of the window when the election is between two guys known by their first names only, each supported by lots of people who would normally never get involved in politics (even to turn up and vote), each anti-establishment to some degree.
360 - Dark room, lie-down, you know you want to, it will do you good.
345 Another of the many unpleasant aspects of the BNP is that think they have a monopoly on patriotism.
351. Better odds elsewhere ?
http://www.morpethherald.co.uk/news/Election-mistake-Probe-is-under.4043305.jp
The first results are out already.
355-Having had the misfortune to have gone to Saudi I would almost echo Ken’s comments. They would however be taken more seriously if he had talked in these terms about an anti-American/Western ruling clique.
How about “I wake up and find the ruling elite of Cuba/Syria/North Korea swinging from lamp posts”?
Ken seems to have stayed at 3.25 or 3.3 for the last few hours. Not much happening.
Top tip : Zenit St Petersburg to qualify vs Bayern Munich @2.98 on betfair - starts on ITV4 in 5 mins. 1-1 from 1st leg - i.e. Zenit have the away goal.
364-Why?
I am however minded to agree with Cicero on 358 for some common sense arguments into who’s the most racist party merry go round.
341. Think you’re right if turnout is even Ealing-wide. I just wonder if, say, Southall is going to match some of the bluer areas around my neck of the woods (obviously I hope not!). However, I’ll confess that my knowledge of the political landscape is limited saarff of the Uxbridge Road.
For stuff on city/ local authority mayors… http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?search_term=mayor&id=10133.
The problem is that people don’t care enough to actually vote to change the status quo. I’m a fan of the concept, but they certainly shouldn’t be imposed unilaterally. How to get around the apathy though? Maybe go for an SNP style poll (timed too coincide with GE?) asking people to vote on differnet options, rather than a straight’Mayor: Yes or No’?
Obama banks three more superdelegates for next week :
http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/05/obama_picks_up_3_more_illinois.html
351. I would guess your average nip-down-the-bookies-for-a-flutter political punter would reason that 3-1 was automatically good value in a two-horse race?
I gamble quite a lot and I still have a natural dislike for placing odds-on bets
369 - I just put a nice sum on Ken at threes. Where did you get 3.25 ? Thanks.
360 - and as I said, they never actually saw the light of day as an actual poster campaign because Labour spotted what the agency didn’t, ie, the anti-semitic overtones of such a poster.
And you want the tories to be more racist? How could they be more racist in areas that they’re not currently being racist in? Do enlighten us, please. A little light racial profiling, perhaps? More jokes about Chinese people in election literature? David Cameron could black up to give a speech in a cod Jamaican accent. Or perhaps that’d be too racist. You really are an intriguing person.
O/T but of interest to some I’m sure - Leeds regain 0 points… BBC Story Here
Crewe and Nantwich Liberal Democrats
Have you see their chart
Lib Dems up 5.1, Cons up 2.1 Labour down 5.5
Last General Election result
A few wry smiles no doubt
361. Probably quite even, PC
366. Even allowing for that, Harry.
378 - Yeah, saw that this morning… Innovotive is the way I’d put it
376. they could always try putting someone with a long history of making gaffes about those from different backgrounds up for election in an important role with national visibility?
350 “It makes all the rest look like a strom in a teacup.”
Would that be a Strom Thurmond in a teacup (as we are talking racism)?
Tangentially, anybody on here ever meet Commander Boakes, who used to stand at all the by-elections on the combined road safety and racism ticket? Just how barking was he?
#358 - HEAR BLOODY HEAR Cicero! We may have our political differences, but I think we all have a lot more in common than the average Joe. We have political opinions, and we are not afraid to proclaim them - unlike a lot of people who simply couldn’t give a toss (pardon my French).
People who compare Labour or any other mainstream party to the fascist BNP are doing THEMSELVES a disservice.
377 Leeds should be deducted another fifteen points for the cheek of even asking!
384, do I detect a Lancastrian accent?
Unsurprising they didn’t get the points back.
Went to vote an hour or so ago. Ultra quiet (mind you, I live in a sleepy village so not too surprising).
382 - Boaks wasn’t actually racist. The “White Resident” tag was more of a decoy against the far right, according to him.
Am delighted about Leeds not getting their points back!!! Swansea all the way!
Totally O/T - but I got my water bill today and am getting £116 back! Just when I thought today would be a dark day. Aahhh, all is right with the world after all
369 Now some movement towards Boris. And a huge buyer at 1.42.
Obama banks another superdelegate in the shape of John Patrick of Texas :
http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-texas-superdelegate-endorsement/
376-Some of those options are quite hilarious!!
381-
I actually thought his piece on St Tony in the Congo was really funny. But then I am not as culturaly sensitive as others!
Betfair latest prizes - with sizes;
Boris Johnson 1.38 (£205) 1.42 (£9,505)
Ken Livingstone 3.6 (£20) 3.7 ( £5)
Brian Paddick 340.0 (£4) 1000.0 (£12)
379) thanks Shadsy. Sounds about right.
Do we expect that the overnight results for the locals will affect how people view the mayoral race. For instance if Labour get crucified in the rest of the country do we expect that Boris will be seen as more likely to have triumphed or is there a certain disconnect etc?
392 - I would imagine there would be a substantial disconnect
392 Why?
392. A lot of people including most of the pollsters think the mayoral race will be at least quite close, the debate in the rest of the country is whether Lab will hang on to second place ahead of Lib.
So surely no comparison
New Quinnipiac Presidential Polls for Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania :
Florida -
McCain 41% .. Clinton 49%
McCain 44% .. Obama 43%
Ohio -
McCain 38% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 43% .. Obama 42%
Pennsylvania -
McCain 37% .. Clinton 51%
McCain 38% .. Obama 47%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1173&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0
370. Hope you all got on - Zenit up 1-0 after 5 mins
395. Yes but there must be a good chance given their track record that all the pollsters are significantly overstating Leavingsoon..as such it may not be that close at all…we think it sgoing to be because no one quite believes Livingstone will lose until it happens…
354, Hopi Sen.
Yes, if we assume that it’s a normal distribution (which we normally do).
You can take the “standard” MoE as being 3%, or calculate it yourself from the sample size. The equation is:
MoE= 1.96 x sqrt((p x (1-p))/n)
… which looks a bit harsh, but you just put in the sample size for n, the headline probability for p (as a decimal, so for 53% use 0.53). Remember to use the effective sample size - those who’ve expressed a preference.
This gives you 1.96 standard deviations (which works out to exactly 95% of all values being within that range plus or minus).
For the candidate to be below 50% (and therefore the loser) in the example of 53% and MoE=3% given, the true value would have to be outside the 95% MoE in one specific direction (if it’s outside on the upwards direction, you don’t care). So half of the residual probability is what you’re looking for - in this case 2.5%.
From the MoE, we can get the standard deviation as said earlier (divide by 1.96; to save time people often just divide by 2) and from that, Wikipedia has a chart for 1 sd, 2sd, 3sd, etc at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution#Standard_deviation_and_confidence_intervals
(also a handy chart for swapping confidence intervals such as 0.80 (80%), 0.90 (90%), etc back into standard deviations)
You can calculate it yourself for any value (such as 1.63 sd) if you have an application which can calculate the function erf(x), such as MATLAB. In that case, the probability of the value being within n standard deviations is erf(n/sqrt(2)).
It sounds really involved, but after you’ve done it a few times (and the derivation of the MoE and standard deviation can be set up quite easily on an Excel spreadsheet).
Hope that helps.
398 - Thats where I’m thinking and have been for a few hours now.
Have to say that I couldnt call this race and followed our esteemed hosts early tilt towards Boris then hedged with some on Ken as he drifted. But ist all been pocket money
I genuinely don’t expect You Gov to be as far out that Boris would lose but I wouldnt be surprised if it was a knife edge either.
From Iain Dale:
Chris Rennard, the LibDems election guru has told journalists that even if the LibDems lose seats tonight they could still have a very good night.
399. Thanks so much. I have to admit, I got lost on the last few papragraphs. For mental ease purposes, is there a way of setting up such a spreasheet so I can assume a 1000 sample size, and then the relative likelihood of a prticular result being “right”?
What I’m thinking of is a chart that says: assuming sample size of 1000, 51-49 translates as 60-40 confidence that A is winner, 52-48 as 66-33 or whatever.
One photo that shows exactly why Ken’s gonna do this today:
http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/2008/05/ken-comes-to-stoke-newington.html
OT, from the Times:
“Faced with the possibility of a heavy defeat, the Prime Minister is
already planning an aggressive “relaunch” campaign, with new policies, a
contrite and listening tone and a fresh attempt to expose divisions with
the Conservatives, party sources said”
Leaving aside any weariness at yet another relaunch, am I the only one who feels that item 3 on the agenda is the only one for which Gordon will (on past form) muster any enthusiasm.
402. The ultimate in expectation management! No wonder they hold him in such high regard…
405 - Weren’t the Labour party supposed to be listening after the last locals.. or was it the one before that? !
404. ?
404 - Livingstone is going to do what today?
407 - They listen and yet they hear not!
[402] Hmmm, knowing Chris, I am beginning to feel expectant certainly…
405, 407 - Is there any party that admits “we’re decidedly NOT listening to the voters - we dont care what they think, and are going to do our own thing”. Sure quite a few act like that some of the time…
Where’s that Casino? He’s probably driving old biddies for Boris…
I want to make arrangements for Casino’s visit to Marble Arch on Saturday where he will be put in stocks for your sins against this board, and losing a lot of people a lot of money on a high-risk, low-return bet on Boris, who just doesn’t have the right kind of turnout in terms of demogs and social strata to win it.
I remind Boris bulls of the surprise that Huhne almost pulled off for the Lib Dems at so-called “ridiculous” odds.
398. yes there is a good chance they are underestimating, hence the odds on the race.
however, the chance of the vote shares being anything like the locals (i.e. 40/25/25) is zero. this makes perfect sense, as the mayoral candidates are high profile in their own right, and campaigning on mayoral issues.
The second preference votes are crucial. You have to remember that because of voter uncertainty about the dual vote system, polling data on second preferences is unreliable and thus subject to a higher standard deviation.
Using not just the YouGov poll but a series of others, I have Ken gaining significantly as a result of second preference votes and they will be divided roughly 70-30 in Ken’s favor. My data has it 51-49 with a high margin of error than used above due to high stan dev on second preference votes. I make this roughly 60-40 in Boris’s favor … prices should be 1.67 B (4/6) and 2.5 K (6/4). Even this does not account for worrying exit (unreliable I know!, but still) data for Boris this afternoon.
The tide is turning !!!
413 - I think the information available for the Mayoral race is far more significant than the Lib Dem leadership race!
354. The lead will follow a normal distribution with a standard deviation of about twice that of an individual party’s percentage.
Calculating the chance that a party is ahead is simply the area under the normal distribution to the left of the reported lead.
There is a discussion here, with a handy excel spreadsheet.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_08/004536.php
For a 1000 sample-size the probability that the “leader” is actually leading is
reported lead….prob of a true lead
0…………….50%
1…………….62.4%
2…………….74.7%
3…………….82.9%
4…………….89.7%
5…………….94.3%
6…………….97.1%
7…………….98.7%
8…………….99.4%
9…………….99.8%
10……………99.9%
Usual caveats about methodology apply. Assumes sample is perfect random sample.
As you can see, not until the lead reaches about 5 can we be reasonably confident, and not until about 8 can we be very confident…
382 O/t Strom Thurmond story - in the 90’s as Chairman of the armed Services Committee he was at a reception for the Ambassador of Hungary. In small talk he asked the Ambassador ” Hungary, when I was at school it was Austro-Hungary, when did that change?”
Aside from casting some doubt on his mental faculties it does make one recognise just how much the world did change in the 20th century.
405. I heard Gordon on Today on Wednesday and whilst I wasn’t entirely convinced by him, I thought he was at least pushing back hard at Humphries.
I can only see one strategy back for Labour with Gordon in charge, and it is this: the 10p tax row has given Labour massive political cover to be open about redistribution. If Darling’s next budget (for instance) raised the tax threshold to 10k and paid for this by imposing a new 50% higher rate, the Tories couldn’t complain without backtracking on their new-found commitment to low earners. Labour can also put child poverty front and centre, if necessary cutting spending in some other areas (ID cards anyone?) to pay for this.
The tax credit system is a mess, but for those who get it the sheer scale of this government’s redistribution is impressive. If the government can make it work and be open and honest about what they’re doing, then they might at least solidify the base and get back to the 35-36% needed to become largest party.
418 I hear Jack W still enquires about the fall of Rome….!!!!
279. Is there any particular reason why we have to suffer the ‘Hurrah for the Blackshirt’ type posts from Emily. The last ones read like some Ealing Comedy with steadfast Britons being entertained by the antics of some vicar from the colonies .
383 “People who compare Labour or any other mainstream party to the fascist BNP are doing THEMSELVES a disservice”
Yes, let’s not forget how the odious BNP ordered the illegal invasion of another country resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi civilians. Not content with this, the thieving BNP then went on to rob the poorest people in the UK by abolishing the 10p tax rate. It’s also nauseating to watch the slimy BNP rolling over for the biggest hedge fund spivs on the planet.
We certainly can’t accuse the Labour party of doing any of that, can we?
New thread - Is the key to Mayoral result hidden here?
385 “384, do I detect a Lancastrian accent?”
No - a Nottingham one!!
413. Here I am!
When Livingstone loses tomorrow, it will be me having a… Whale of a Time.. not you.
Haha!!!
405. Can’t possibly be having ANOTHER relauch. Nick Robinson said so. He said Brown couldn’t afford ANOTHER after the last time [or was is the time before?]. So it must be impossible. Clearly.
[422] Agreed. However though it is a litany of disgraceful failure, it does not make Labour a racist farrago…
I oppose Labour for those reasons and many others, but they sare still not as vile as the BNP-NF
Just driven through Woking, a Con gain 2007 from NOC and still a Lib Dem target. “Lib Dems winning here” posters more visible than Conservative ones but I suspect support is shifting to the Tories in outer wards (Byfleet, Knaphill) .
This is offset in the inner estates of Maybury-Sheerwater, LDs could well gain a ward from Con, significant Asian electorate, and Labour slipped badly to third place last year; plus LDs expect to take Mount Hermon East, south of the centre, from C.
The election is clearly going on in Woking, whereas in next door Elmbridge it’s “what election” apart from 5 or so key wards.
424. Another forest fan! huzzah and hurrah, for we are a poor benighted breed. It must be even worse to be a Forest fan and a Tory. At least if you’re Labour the successes and failures have balanced out since 1979…
For anyone with a few bob left to invest - bearing in mind that YouGov’s final poll has Boris winning 43% of first prefs, Betfair’s odds of 1.4/1 for him to secure 40.01% looks good value.
There’s just £40 available at this price, so hurry!
ITN: Boris in big trouble THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
427 Actions speak louder than words IMO and Labour’s actions of recent years speak loudly of what a vile, dishonest, and unscrupulous bunch they are.
As for the BNP, they’re largely an irrelevant sideshow to the main event and wouldn’t have a tenth of the support they have now if large sections of the white working class hadn’t been comprehensively cr@pped on by successive Labour governments.
417. thanks Rod- a 2% lead in that chart would equate to 51-49, i assume?
404. You going to have to explain yourslef..how does a picture of a very small bunch of leftie saddos possibly lead you to the conclusion that Leavingsoon will be..well leaving soon (sunday I think).
ITN reckons they can’t be split
THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
431 is that it, or are you going to tell us more?
433. Correct
435- Why on earth are ITN even talking about it? I thought Broadcasters were supposed to keep mouths firmly shut until close of polls?
431. Explain yourself..
LAY LAY LAY !!!
THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
market abt to move big time
THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
431) WAS NOT ME.
someone is pretending to be me. Please ignore the “Boris is in trouble ITN” stuff.
443..435 wasnt me either..whats going on….Mike can you check this…
Would be outrageous if someone was ramping, but amusing that they picked a time when everyone had moved to a new thread.
Hopi: not really supposed to, they often hint. don’t think this has been broadcast yet anyway, my info came directly from a journalist contact
THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
430 Sorry, please ignore, incorrect odds!
446. Please ignore any comments from me..I know I usually speak rubbish but in respect of 446. and 435. it want me spouting rubbish this time..
bbc : boris to win
I cannot understand how any REAL Londoners can vote for Boris. Is Boris really better for London than Ken? is yes, Why?
Boris was more or less forced to run for mayor by his party leader because Cameron feels he was an embarrassment to the party with his behavior and wanted to see the back of him.
People leave your political allegiance to one side and vote for who is BEST for London.