Now can the Tories beat the bar chart kings?
May 2nd, 2008
Are they underestimating the LD by election machine?
Reproduced above is the first Lib Dem bar chart of the Crewe & Nantwich campaign which has been cleverly designed to present the party as the one that will be able to challenge Labour.
It’s smart and no doubt will be on leaflets that will thrust through thousands of letter boxes this weekend as hundred of activists pile into the area to support the campaign.
The party’s great expertise is Westminster by elections and literature is a key part. Don’t write them off.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
sky reporting that boris and bnp pollling well
Have we ever had a situation like this, when the Prime Minister doesn’t have any form of mandate govern? Labours collapse in this years locals is comparable with their performance in 1968. Wilson won the general election in 1966, so he had a mandate to be there. John Major won a leadership election in 1990 the 1992 general election before his party collapsed in 1995 and 1996.
Brown has never won a general election and never faced a contest in the Labour Party. And has now lost an national election by 20%. Where is his mandate to be our Prime Minister.
Labour, what have you done!
Tories gain Redditch from NOC
Ugh Lib Dems and their ridiculous bar charts!
I think after last night the Tories must be firm favourites for Crewe. Not writing off the Lib Dems - they are brilliant at bye-elections - but last night felt like a real watershed. And it wasn’t the LDs that gained.
For those TVless:
Sky: Boris ahead, BNP doing well, Tories win Redditch.
Ha, that’s brilliant.
5- As long as they can keep the momentum going and don’t get complacent!
What % of BNP 2nd prefs do we think will break for Ken/Boris?
Surely the Tories will be able to easily convey that it is they who are in 2nd plae. Not the Lib Dems.
Did I just see Lib Dems gain BURNLEY??? Wow! and Ha Ha to Alistair Cempbell….
6. Thanks, my tv doesn’t work
I really don’t think the Tories can ever understimate the LD By-election machine or would so now in reality not unless they’ve been sectioned. Knowing that is one thing. Beating the LDs quite another
reposted and more relevant
LibDems are doing pretty well where we hold the parliamentary seat against the Tories. Much better than any of us had the right to expect. Look at Eastleigh, Colchester, Cheltenham - all places the Tories should be wiping the floor with us if they hope to displace LD incumbents.
Admittedly not a springboard for gains from them… but Clegg has every right to be relieved and maybe even quietly pleased.
Here comes Kevin Maguire. The Mirror must be reeling.
Maybe putting the BNP first on the polling card wasnt a good idea
5 Yes but this is Lord Rennard here. Tories marginal but not comprehensive favourites
The Lib-Dems just lie, lie and lie….. Conservatives need to shove a few bar-charts of their own through some doors… and fast.
I don’t expect Conservatives to Gain Crewe. Today implies a 5-6% Lab-Con swing.
I don’t think that’s enough. Particularly for a by-election.
[2] - We don’t have a presidential system. The government is Labour. The Labour MPs overwhelmingly chose Brown to lead their government, their choice, that’s Brown’s mandate. Stop trying to undermine our constitutional system with your incessant carping.
Looks like a lot of Labour MPs are going to lose their seats due to that decision. There’s your democracy in action. It isn’t perfect, I know there’s lots of changes I’d like to make to it, but you’re being a bit silly.
(Reposted from last thread)
Sands End ward by-election result (Hammersmith & Fulham).
Alexandra de Lisle Con 2257 57.55%
Brendan Bird Lab 1147 29.25%
LD LD 518 13.21%
Swing 2006-2008 3% Lab to Con.
Until 2006, this south Fulham ward with large council estates had 3 Labour Councillors. The “on the day” voters in 2004 voted for Norris 41% Livingstone 33% (First preferences).
Points to big swing against Livingstone in inner London.
[13] Yes- Looks like it
15) I noticed that - difficult when in alphabetical order..
re 11. Burnley is where my family comes from. WOWWWWWWWWWWWW
I wonder what % racist ken’s voters put BNP as their 2nd pref
SeanT, from the last thread: I can’t think of anything more ghastly than having the votes counted by machine. We have a perfectly good sytem as it is, what is the hurry? and I see no reason to change.
There are problemsregarding postal votes, registration, fraud. But the counting procedure seems fine. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
I actually find the current way of doing things exciting. Would have been nice to get more Welsh results last night, but in the end, it’s about our political representation, not an entertainment show. Jeremy Vine take note.
21. Is that really you Mike?
You seem to have picked up bad habits from “Ave It” and Me!!!
13. Jon, that was in reply to my post, predicting LD disaster, right?
On reflection, you may have a point. It is possible your incumbency effect may still save you a lot of seats.
That said I think you will lose SOME seats next time, and your decline will continue thereafter; 2005 will prove to have been an historic high for you, post-Iraq.
Your only chance is to attack Labour and hope they implode. But you seem constitutionally incapable of this. LDs realise in their heads they should turn on Labour, but in your hearts you are “of the left” - so you just can’t do it.
That’s why I think you are doomed to a slow decline, from here on.
Assuming Boris wins in London, and that Paddick is highly squeezed as expected, it should put to bed the notion that the best way to stop the Tories is to vote Labour. If Labour voters had switched to Paddick, I’m sure he could have beaten Boris.
Labour voters in Crewe would be wise, in my opinion, to vote Lib Dem as the best way to stop the Tory.
13, 19 - the problem is, though, that’s framing the issue in entirely defensive terms. The current government is deeply unpopular, there is potential for serious gains against Labour in a number of areas, and yet the LDs seem happy because they held off the Tories? This is not the attitude of a party that is serious about becoming the real opposition at any point.
Wolverhampton 8 Lab to C!
20- Someone set up a party called the “Aardvark Party” quick!
16 so a truth you do not like is a lie?
If the tories don’t gain C and N they will be gutted.
26 - You could say the same for Lib Dem voters voting for Ken! (and since there are less Lib Dem voters, I’m sure this is more plausible!)
21- Brilliant!!!!!
How are things looking in terms of councillors and councils lost and gained?
Councillors Councils
Party +/- Total +/- Total
CON 166 2082 10 48
LAB -177 1635 -7 15
LD 9 1109 0 8
PC 8 43 0 0
OTH -6 463 0 0
NOC - - -3 37
Ahhhh, Channel 4 News is on…look out for the looks on the presenters faces
The Lib Dems are spinning like tops over last night. I have just had my local newspaper on the ‘phone asking me to comment on the Lib dems ’success’ in the South West last night; apparently the MP was hailing their three point fall as a ‘breakthrough’.
I had to go through the real figures with her after which she said ’so they didn’t actually do very well at all, did they?’
The only winners last night were the Tories, and I expect Paddick to be completely humiliated tonight whoever wins.
The Lib Dems are desperate not to be seen to be in trouble, but the only people they are convincing is themselves.
(104 of 159 councils have officially declared.)
David Roe..Are you getting any work done today? Or are you on the ecetoral news desk?
Have the BBC just called North Tyneside?
33 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/local_council/08/html/region_999999.stm?sortresults=latestdeclarations
25 seanT - no! If you want to take votes from previous Labour supporters you attack the Tories on principles and Labour on practices - which is exactly what we have been doing. Not very effectively granted but it is the right plan.
39 -N Tyneside was called for the Tories a while back
From last thread 322. They’ve taken it off now, it was there a good twenty minutes though. Don’t know what that was about.
Only one ward left now and that was Lib Dem so it looks Reading is now
Lab 20
Con 17/18
Lib Dem 8/9
My own feeling is — just like in 1997 — the country is itching to get rid of an arrogant, worthless, despised and corrupt government.
If — like me — you think the economic situation is going to get worse, then Labour aren’t yet at the bottom. That is still to come.
Just as in 1997, there will be some choice pickings for the LibDems, but the main feasting will be done by the Official Opposition.
Paddick v Ken - I’d be hard pushed to find any reason to vote
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council Seats
Conservative +9 +167
Labour -7 -232
Lib Dem -1 +16
Others 0 +49
34. Thanks.
I’m dying, I’m dying!!…….
EERRRRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH..UUUUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH……OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH…………ARRRRRHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH..UGH.
*Dies*
42. Whoops. Shouldn’t have popped to the shops.
47, note there are differences between the sky and bbc news figures, worth checking both regularly!
And thanks to 46.
[41] - No! You attack Labour for betraying its principles in practice. Attacking the Tories can be done as an afterthought, if at all.
16. According to Norman Smith political correspondent on the Today programme Crewe and Nantwich should be a banker….for Labour.
If the BBC in the form of that programme are saying that, I don’t think you can point the finger at Tories expressing such views.
(Lets see if this is neater)
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
—————
CON +9 +167
LAB -7 -232
LIB -1 +16
OTH +0 +49
I’ve just seen the pictures of Gordon this morning. What is wrong with him? He looks like he’s been up all night playing World of Warcraft.
2 The last time would have been Douglas-Home in 1963-4. The Tories didn’t have elections for party leader in those days - it was all done by “consultations” behind closed doors. So he had no mandate from any form of election, and nor did Macmillan in 1957-9 and, interestingly enough, Churchill from 1940-45. However, it’s never happened in the case of a Labour PM.
In Hertsmere, we gained two from the Lib Dems, and one from Labour, winning 12 out of 13 in total. This is the first time we’ve ever won every seat in Bushey. The Council is now Con 31, Lab 3, Lib Dem 5, although this must be our high-water mark.
In neighbouring Three Rivers, the BNP have won their first ever seat in Ashridge, part of the South Oxhey overspill estate. Race relations are terrible on that estate, and it’s a surprise the BNP haven’t contested it before.
Standard front page is hilarious
Oh God, Jeremy Vine’s on the Daily Politics. Someone please smack him.
2 & 55
What about Jim Callaghan leading is into the “Winter of Discontent”? I don’t think Labour even had a majority in Parliament when the PLP elected him Leader in 1976.
Is the 44-24-25 thing a weighted result? I remember last year that it wasn’t just the case of tallying up the actual votes, but rather adjusting them to what would be reckoned for the national scene so as to avoid skewing by the possibly unrepresentative nature of the contests this round.
57 - What’s the banner headline?
36. According to LD Voice, on average LDs expected to lose around 35 seats. Instead we’ve gained.
We are not delirious, we are not claiming massive success, and this is not “spinning like tops”.
Generally we’re happy to have held onto the post-Iraq success four years ago. This week is a large Tory win and a massive Labour loss. For us it’s inbetween - satisfactorily good.
As mentioned on the last thread, you don’t always have to go to extremes on every verdict. We have the luxury here of not being employed by tabloids.
49 - yes, the difference still seems to be from the Durham calculation. This the first election as a unitary authority, so the BBC are treating the ‘previous’ seat numbers as nil across the board, where Sky are taking the previous Durham council numbers as the starting point for gains/loss calculations. I think Sky’s approach makes a lot more sense, to be honest.
59 But Callaghan won a contested election in the PLP - the point being made in 2 was that Brown has not won any form of election for the PM post.
From Tony Sharps Blog :
In Welwyn Hatfield, Liberal Democrat councillor Nigel Quinton lost his seat to a Conservative. He was quoted as saying it was:
a sad day for democracy in Welwyn Hatfield
LDs whinging here
62 - Trying to use St Albans as evidence of LDs making progress against the Tories in southern England has more spin on it than the Gatting ball.
The Conservatives have held Millwall, by 2,100 votes to 1,400 for Labour. This is the highest vote ever won by a Conservative council candidate in Tower Hamlets.
60 - yes, it is adjusted to represent a projected national vote share
54. This must be a massive blow to him mentally. He has NEVER lost a contest. He has always been able to control events and rig the deck.
That must mean he suffers from a deep lack of self confidence. Bullies usually do. He never allowed himself to be judged for fear of rejection. Now he has had to and all his worst, deeply held fears have come true.
It must be devastating for him.
Reading confirmed as NOC, LAB 20 (-5), CON 18 (+4), LIB 8 (+1) on Reading Council Website.
67 Adding that result to Sands End, it’s clear a high turnout in Inner London doesn’t necessarily favour Labour.
Con lose Purbeck to NOC
61 - Bloodbath for Brown over a pic of a smiling Blair!!
Lab in trouble a Caerphilly. Plain in trouble in Gwynedd according to 5 live
56 - Sean, what is the particular problem with race relations on the South Oxhey estate?
41. No. What you need to do is undermine Labour and hope they collapse completely - and in their desperation they might grant you electoral reform.
But you don’t. You haven’t got the bollox. Look at your pitiful behaviour over the EU Referendum. You could have forced a referendum. This would have made you look principled, in sticking to your manifesto promises; at the same time you would have totally embarrassed Gordon - in a defeat he might even have fallen; you would also have potentially discomfited Cameron - by exposing eurosceptic splits within the Tories.
But what did you do? You missed the open goal. You voted with the europhile Labour government. You looked divided, devious and dumb.
Basically, you haven’t got the nads. You will always be a pathetic third force. Your party is the embarassingly bad transvestite of British politics.
65. How can it possibly be a ’sad day for democracy’? A sad day for the Lib Dems but surely it is a good day for democracy if the people make their voice heard? What a silly man.
77) Paddy Power do their usual “punters friend” free advertising and pay out on Boris. Congrat to anyone who has back Boris with Paddies - you can now collect!
http://www.teletext.co.uk/news/national/131ce8a53625e6c537fb7fb4422efe84/Bookie+pays+out+on+Boris+win.aspx
Lib Dems GAIN Sheffield (text from the count, respected source)
BBC wasting our money again?
Reading Count, male reporter on 24 hour news, and then shoertly after Politics Show over to our reporter, a female.
I have to go to work around 4.30, do we think the mayoral results will be in by then?
Gosh the results from my home city of Stoke on Trent are coming in rather slowly - glad I am in the U.S. - we have the sad distinction of before this election having the BNP as our 2nd party but with the same number of seats as the Tories may I add 6 - hope they don’t gain any more … any one with any more updates I would be happy
76. We wouldn’t have voted with the Tories on Lisbon because the majority of LD MPs didn’t believe, according to their views on the policy, that it would be the right thing to do.
It was not a tactical party-political decision, so shouldn’t be judged as such.
Equally the Tories would have looked better if they’d all (or even mostly) voted against the Iraq war - but they didn’t, presumably because they thought the invasion was the right thing to do.
Did Lib Dems win Oldham or not? If we look at BBC’s result page, the title says “NOC no change”, but if we look at the numbers, Lib Dems have 30 seats against other parties combined 29. Is there a fault in the title or in the numbers?
64 - agreed, Callaghan did face at least some sort of contest, although being elected Leader of a Party that doesn’t have a Parliamentary majority is hardly a mandate to govern either!
Getting very nervous about those second prefs. Between them, the Paddick and Green 2nd prefs… argh.. oh I dunno. Ooh look - the sun’s over the yardarm. Thank God for that. Up yours, Lenin. Speaking of God… ‘Dear God, er, remember me? I promise to be good for ever and ever and ever if you let Boris win.’
75 I believe there’s a considerable degree of racial violence (I must say that I am only hearing that second hand).
Hi Mike,
It seems I was unable to post some comments yesterday when they were over a certain length. I had a two paragraph comment which I tried to post several times which took me through to the update page but my comments didn’t show up. But I tested it with writing short, two line sentences.
I think I’ve noticed this before (though a long time ago) during another election night.
Do you not what the cause of this is? Does the website automatically put a limit on comment size when traffic is very high?
Has anyone else had this?
54. It’s probably worth posting this again (I did it at the end of the last thread). Here’s one of those pics of Brown this morning:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3859835.ece
Just look at him. As I said before, I’ve seen that expression in photos of GIs in Vietnam - the so-called “thousand yard stare” of shellshocked defeat.
82. Simply a lie. You supported a referendum in your manifesto. Then you changed your mind, cause you are pathetic, and then you lied about the reason because you were ashamed. Tut tut.
83 - 22 + 7 + 1 = 30, so still NOC
Boris ahead in 10 constituencies, Ken in 4
81 BNP have gained 3 so far in Stoke, 1 in Calderdale, but look as though they’ll lose 1 in Kirklees.
76 well as you know seant I completely agree with you over the EU referendum - and the best way to undermine Labour is not to abuse them like lunatics but rather to point out their many failings to the people they are supposed to represent.
In this part of the world the LibDems want to take votes off the conservatives - we don’t do that by launching into a volley of insults which would imply to soft tory voters that we were insulting them.
Does a council need over 50% of the councillors to have a majority? What if it’s level in the case of Craven? It’s declaring it as a NOC, is that the norm?
82 - yeah, that’s sort of the point. If you’re serious about displacing an incumbent, *every* vote is about tactical party-political decision.
The Tories are already one of the two major parties, they don’t need to claw their way up the way the LDs do.
92 - Well obviously if no one has a majority, its NOC, so they do need more than 50%!
BBC News channel, first with the news as usual? Give me a break.
78 Well done PP - paying out before a single London Borough result has been announced. Clearly another “Someone” who knows!
89 - Good for Ken?
94. I suppose that makes sense :P, thanks
85. You’re not alone. I’m also nervous! But the punters are more sanguine. Ken is now out to 7s.
Ldems hold Watford and Newcastle
89 - I don’t know how you could interpret that as good for Ken…
Looks like “others” have gained 3 times as many seats as the LDs from Labour ..
101 - -Should have been for 97, not my original post!
Boris moving to 1.12, if Ken wins it’ll be the biggest shocker ever.
LD hold New-under-lyme and Watford.
Labour hold Gateshead.
90 thanks boy Stoke sure is getting a reputation as the Nazi capital of England -
thanks for the update - the council site sure is slow
102 - Is that just first preferences or both?
Upon Tyne! NOT…
What the hell? The BBC reporters get the live data from the London Mayor election but we dont? BAH!!!
78
Thank you PC.
Hven’t I alays said Paddy Power are thebest bookies around!
106 now try that in English - still half asleep -
90 thanks for the update, Stoke is sure getting a reputation as the Nazi capital of England
104) Many, many 1.01s have been “gubbed”, let alone 1.12s!
I’ll try that again…
Haven’t I always said PP are the best bookies around?
In 2004, Ken beat Norris 55-45.
The swing (over the whole country from 2004 to 2008 locals is 4.5% (Lab -2, Con +7).
If you apply 4.5% swing to the 2004 Mayoral result, it would give Ken 50.5%, Boris 49.5% this time.
I’m not suggesting for one minute that Ken has won. All I’m saying is it COULD be close. If Boris has won then he has got a BIGGER swing than the overall National swing. That’s very possible (ie less tendency for Con voters to back Ken).
Lab -235
Con +167
LD +20
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
***************
CON +8 +167
LAB -7 -235
LIB -1 +20
OTH +1 +48
But the new lows on Betfair suggest that the results in real time which you can see at Olympia are moving strongly to Boris
Peter The Punter - Have Paddies paid YOU out?!
114 - I don think applying a swing like that to the Mayoral election is totally valid! Partly because the Lib Dems have been totally squeezed in London, and the differing voting systems.
Purbeck is another striking result for the LibDems - tories lose to NOC - a chunk of Annette Brooke’s constituency which the Tories will have been hoping to win.
118 Indeed.
119. Agreed - it’s not a prediction.
But just a back of the envelope calculation that I’m amazed nobody appears to have done.
78 Thanks for pointing out PP have paid out already - I can use my winnings to buy a bottle of Dom ready to celebrate when the real result comes out!!
COME IN Mr SENIOR your time is up
looking forward to Mark sending 10 quid to Helen House Hospice as his ridiculous by-election analysis is shown up for the nonsense it is.
PAGING NICK PALMER - get your £20 ready to send off to Helen House when the BoJo result is confirmed
Peter the Punter - the first declared Boris winner on the board! well done!
Just as I post that it updates! Arghh…
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +172
LAB -8 -240
LIB -1 +20
OTH +2 +48
When are we going to get GLA results? They are meant to come out first.
Purnell on Sky. Presumably, talk of him being leader is after he has had some charisma injections.
Now on saying polls showed Livingston had a mountain to climb!
YouGov polls! That you rubbished!
:O 1.07 now
88. The referendum in the manifesto was on a separate EU document (and of course we know the arguments about how similar / not similar it is, but it was still a separate document). Furthermore, there was not even consensus on that part being in the manifesto (there is still dissent over its inclusion) - however, as it was there and the MPs stood under it, IF they’d have come to a governmental position (stop laughing at the back) AND the document in question had been the one referred to in the referendum, THEN there would have been an obligation to support it. But none of these conditions actually happened.
The greater point here is this - a large number of people are fixed into the adversarial, two-party mindset and see our politics as a simple Us v Them battle. Unable to ignore the third party, they view us as being “in the middle” - then the people on the Right demand we hammer Labour, and the people on the Left demand we support a ‘progressive’ culture, and ‘Stop Boris’ and so on.
We will keep refusing to do either because we simply do not believe in this reactionary view of things.
116. Interestingly, last night was arguably worse for Labour than it was good for the Tories, if you see what I mean. Labour lost more seats than expected; the Tories gained roughly what they hoped, I’d say.
The LDs did OK. Ish. Kinda.
Yeeeeeeeeeee Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Go Bo Jo….
129. By “our politics”, I mean UK politics.
New thread - PaddyPower pays out on Boris
129. Translation: you broke your manifesto promise. And then you lied about the reason.
Back on topic: has anyone got any insider info on the mayoralty vote? Why aren’t results appearing on the GLA website? This sucks. I’m getting antsy. Did John Loony not give us his postal vote poll, or did I miss it?
65 Sad news if Nigel Quinton has lost. This was a very tight split ward, and obviously at risk. On the bright side, Nigel will be able to devote more time to being PPC (in a neighbouring seat).
I presume his bad day for democracy comment is because the council is drfting back to being a one-party state.
[64,84] - But Brown also won a vote of the PLP, by a vast margin, no-one else being able to get enough nominations for there to be a vote amongst the wider party.
He was chosen by Labour MPs, who form a majority in Parliament. That is a mandate to govern.
Looking forward to Sheffield, Leeds, Cardiff and Swansea…..
136, he won a vote with no-one else standing against him?
Sounds like the only sort of election he has a chance of winning.
Some of the news presenters are poor prepared. On Sky:
Dermot: “You’re not breaking through in big northern cities, Manchester, Newcastle and Leeds etc’
Hague: ‘Er, we lead Leeds City Council’
Checkmate!
Ldems take Sheffield!!!!!!!!
There is some - very early - anecdotal evidence from my friends at the Olympia count that Labour *MAY* be doing better than expected on the assembly: with 11% of the votes counted, Merton & Wandsworth - a relatively comfortably held Tory seat, apparently had Labour and Tories neck and neck.
I’d be surprised if Labour wins that, and not forecasting they will, but I think what may happen is that the voters aren’t voting a straight Tory ticket - they’re clearly electing Boris, but they may just be boosting Labour in the assembly in some US-style attempt at checks and balances.
I’d argue that this is what happened in the past two assembly results in reverse: people voted Ken and then Tory to keep him in check; now people may be voting Boris and Labour.
I’ve never been convinced by Mike Smithson’s arguments that Ken outperformed Labour in 2000 and 2004, insofar as I don’t believe Labour’s assembly vote in those elections was Labour’s “genuine” vote in those elections; in fact the reverse: Ken represented Labour’s true share (which in itself was hardly impressive - high thirties), the assembly was where the tactical voting took place to prevent him having completely untrammelled power.
139 actually they’re in 3rd place……..
As a watcher of the Lib Dem scene in particular I note that according to the BBC figures they had a total of 1283 councillors in 2004, including 137 net gains, already the same network says they have 1256, with 35 or so Councils to declare.
Some Councils have gone Unitary, presumably that means the total number of wards and Councillors has reduced overall.
On the basis of this they must be feeling fairly content.
Sorry whilst writing this total gone up to 1269.
Suggests again that an overall percentage is not what is important for them anyway. The inequities of our voting system again?
Indeed, SB (42), that is true. Going into these elections, the Tories are in third place in Leeds in terms of council seats.
It seems that Master Wiliam Hague is spinning again, or is he just badly misinformed?
If the Tories are really doing well, why does he feel the need to spin?
Has it occurred to anybody that Wiliam Hague is incredibly like Neil Kinnock?
141 The GLA is a meaningless talking shop unless you can obtain a 66% budget blocking majority (or buy off a pair of prostitute Green Assembley members with a meaningless ‘Chair’ and naff bike schemes to pass outrageous tax hikes on to London Council Tax Payers with)
Enjoy the frustration. It’s been real !
The Tories “run” Leeds though, insofar as they and the LibDems each spend 6 months having their group leader as council leader - so, when he made the statement it was true
Chart should be headlined “Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics”
Or maybe, “Lib Dems Lying Here”
146. Oh, don’t get me wrong - not saying it’s a consequential check or balance; just that I think that’s how people have voted in assembly elections - but because Livingstone has won the first two times it’s never been a verifiable trend.
Hague might have been referring to Kirklees council, just down the road from Leeds, where the Tories are now the largest party.
38 - Hi Sally, I’m at home and I was going to do some work on Wales but I’m too bleary-eyed after last night.
I’m just wishing I’d advised the news desk to run a ‘Boris on the way to healthy win’ story Jack reported. We’d looks bloody good this morning if I had.
Of course, I could have got sacked if Ken had gone on to win
122 - As I said last night, the starting positions of the relative races means a swing was always more likely to be bigger.
18. Have to correct Harlequin (aka Cllr Mark Loveday): the swing in Sands End was 0.3% Lab to Con: Tories down 2.5, Lab down 3.1, LD up 5.6.
And while Sands End does indeed have some moderately sized council estates (Sulivan Court, Townmead, Pearscroft), it also has Chelsea Harbour, Imperial Wharf, The Piper Building, the incredibly sought-after streets around South Park, the yuppified Hever estate, some still gentrifying terraces off Stephendale Road and a massive number of Tory postal voters - so let’s not fall for the myth peddled by Mark that they’ve managed to win some monolithic working-class ward.
Forty years ago, yes. Today - don’t be so disingenuous Mark - your win stands on its own without the need for any spin.
[25] SeanT - although it is fair to say that the last three years have been pretty bad for the Lib dems, I think it is more instructive to see where we have come from. The 20-year trend points to continued progress rather than decline. I think this is rooted on two things. Firstly the idea that voter choice should be so limited, when choice in everything else has simply exploded, is not usutainable- we are not just born little Labourites or little Conservatives or Little Liberals- and yet that is all that our political settlement offers. Secondly, the case for the Lib Dems is not to change the party of government, but to overhaul the system of government too. Liberals are government sceptical- and insist on checks and balances- so no to ID, and yes to freedom of information and direct accountability. I will leave aside Europe, because we are not going to convince each other: I beleive it is 1) not a state 2) is a generally positive influence and that it 3) can and should be brought under democratic control- you believe none of those things, so let us agree to differ.
The Lib Dems leadership problems damaged the party substantially, however the impact of todays results seem to show that even against a resurgent Conservative party we have been able to hold our own, and that the scenario of 30+ losses at the generally election looks very unlikely. Indeed, I would suggest that the Lib Dems are now in a position where we could make net gains in a 2009/10 GE.
The long term trend of voters seeking other options to Labour & Tory will help the Liberal Democrats- and in the next few months I think the media narrative will investigate this closely.
141. OK, so my earlier post was bollocks - the Merton & Wandsworth results that had been counted must have been decent Labour wards cos with 25% the Tories are now 2:1 ahead in the M&W constituency vote, which is more how I would instinctively have said it would go before I started getting excited and excitable text messages from the count!
Sky showing 0 net council gains/losses for LDems.
I make it +2
+ Burnley
+ Sheffield
+ Kingston
+ St Albans
- West Lindsey
- Pendle
London council by-election results:
Green GAIN Highgate in Camden from Con by about 300
Con GAIN Greenford Green in Ealing from Labour by 10 votes
Lab GAIN Weavers in Tower Hamlets from LD by 500
Con hold Hale in Barnet by about 800
Con hold Sands End in H&F by about 800
Con hold Millwall in Tower Hamlets by about 700
Con hold Brompton in K&C by about 5 million
155. Adam. Had to say you made me choke on my lunchtime pint!
I was telling and delivering in Earlsfeld yesterday and it was looking very positive for us then. Looks like it may still be. What struck me (entirely anecdotaly so apologies in advance to those who dislike this sort of thing)was how positive and warm ethnic voters were being. I have no idea if they voted for Boris and they are probably very friendly and warm generally but certainly the impression that Boris/Cons were dispised by the non-white population was dispelled for me anyway.
156. Despite the deal with an independent Liverpool is technically is a loss
Technically Liverpool isn’t a loss. Defeated councillors don’t leave office till a few days after polling day so if the defection was today then at no point is there less than a majority of Lib Dems.
Whether I am happy having to rely on such technical argument is a different matter!
158. Labour’s campaign was misguided in its negative attacks: they don’t seem to get the difference between negative as in “my opponent believes this and if his policy was implemented then the consequence will be X”; and “my opponent’s a joke/a moron/a clown/ a racist” etc.
The first is negative in the sense that it’s not saying something positive about yourself but is a perfectly reasonable argument to make; the second is negative in personal, unpleasant, crass ways.
Labour should have been asking how Boris will cut tax and keep the investment on public transport and the police; how Londoners will get housed when affordable housing stops being built anywhere; whether (popular and effective, despite the Tory attacks on them) Safer Neighbourhood Police teams will be axed; how exactly crime will get cut…for which he has no answers.
All we got were “don’t vote for a joke” postcards. A week late. And there was never much substance behind the racist nonsense - clumsy, dumb and gaffe-prone yes. Richard Barnbrook with blonde hair: hardly.
All that says to people is that this party has got nothing to say of any substance, so its just trying to say anything to tear their opponent down in desperation. Labour’s campaign was lamentable - as usual.
Still, at least we won’t have to put up with purple leaflets ever again.
157. Somewhat amusingly, the Tories’ 76.4% share of the vote in Brompton represents a 2% swing away from them since 2006…!
154 - never have much faith in the media! but i agree with your analysis…liberal institutionalism can but lead to the most liberal party surviving against all the odds…!