PaddyPower pays out on Boris
May 2nd, 2008
The Irish bookie has already started paying out - even though it’s won’t be until this evening that we get the actual result.
Looking at the bet date and time it was placed just after Monday’s YouGov poll became public. As soon as the poll news came out I went to every bookie I could to bet before prices were adjusted. The odd stake amount was the most they would let me put on.
Nice to see the return come in.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Mike Smithson. HAMMERING the Bookies
Bit of an odd stake there Mike, using every last penny?
Didn’t paddypower pay out, before the result, on an Obama win in New Hampshire?
4) They prob took about £1000 on New Hampshire Sean to be fair - which could have been hedged with £10!
Ken is now out to 15. Someone is pretty sure of the result.
Con hold Bassetlaw - Sky
re 137 on previous thread.
Is Cardiff likely to be NOC or Lib Dem?
Am I the only person who is deeply frustrated that the live Mayoral tallies - which can be seen at the counts and by BBC reporters - are not available online? Why doesn’t Sky train a camera on them and run a live feed?
Some of the news presenters are poor prepared. On Sky:
Dermot: “You’re not breaking through in big northern cities, Manchester, Newcastle and Leeds etc’
Hague: ‘Er, we lead Leeds City Council’
Checkmate!
Sky News reporting 45% turnout for London Mayor Election
re 2. The stake was the most they would let me put on.
10. Mike’s going to have a nice meal tonight.
Hague on Sky:
There are more councils in the north of England that don’t have a Labour councillor than don’t have a Tory and that was before these elections.
Speaking to a friend who is at the count at Olympia and the reason for the move on Betfair may be because there has been a significant move away from Ken in the Lambeth and Southwark constituency in the last 30 mins.
Also hearing that the counting process could take much longer than anticipated due to the number of opened postal votes getting caught in the electronic counting machines.
Midnight a possibility…
SKY: Lib Dem gain Sheffield
re 10. So 45% means that my turnout bets come good as well.
I might be able to buy half of shandy in the pub tonight!
8. No. You’re not alone. This is lamentable coverage. We need live feeds and internet updates, as in America.
This is London, global capital, not the parish elections for Polperro.
Princess Purnell throwing a strop on BBC News.
Da Fink reporting Tory sources talking of 4-8% Boris win.
At least Blunkett is being honest on sky about clutching at straws…
Curious to know if, after the results last night, the major bookies still taking mayor bets?
Sky report turnout est. @ 45% - so inner london turnout estimates must have been exaggerated? Congrats to turnout/Boris combo backers!
17. I agree, London is the home of the BBC, reuters etc, we should have the best coverage and reporting in the world
Blunkett on Sky huddling with the Lib Dems. With him and Mark Senior and they will tie themselves together.
8 - there are rules in place regarding the secrecy of the count. Legally, you aren’t allowed to transmit information out of the count, but as the room is stuffed with politicos and journos the rooms must be like a leaking seive!
It’s the first time I have ever known a ‘real time’ tally at a UK election. I was meant to attend the count this morning, but unfortunately work had to come first…..damn!
Also looks as though the smaller parties being squeezed on the list vote from waht i am hearing.
Councils.
Labour lost 8
Tories up 8
LD down 1
25-Well there are screens which are showing live time information and is updating every minute i am being told.
25. Well they need to get ride of these rules, and give us machine voting, with realtime internet reporting. Much more fun, and actually LESS susceptible to insider trading, rumour-mongering, etc etc.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +178
LAB -8 -250
LIB -1 +22
OTH +2 +50
Labour reach 250 seat losses (By Skys figures anyway, BBC report -189)
LD gains seem to be falling. They were on 20. Now on 16
30. Big losses for Labour. At the very bottom end of their worst-case scenarios.
25. I think those reporting restrictions only apply before the polling stations have closed.
any chance of Boris doing it without second prerences?
34-No
Mike
Good to see you giving PP some decent publicity. They are very progressive with their Political and other Novelty bets and of course, as you know, in the end they handled my ‘Huckabee’ issue very poperly.
36. …properly.
34. Wouldn’t that be great. Might send a warning shot to Labour about changing the voting system.
28 & 29 There used to be a “declaration of secrecy”, which meant that you weren’t allowed to give indications of ‘how it’s going’ while the count is in progress, although people interpret this differently. Some take it that you aren’t meant to communicate anything about the count whilst it is taking place, others are more lenient and suggest it only means you can’t disclose how a particlar ballot paper has been marked.
I believe the ‘live TV screens’ are a first, and it would probably make sense to re-examine the rules. I personally like the US system of “32% of precints reporting” with figures for each candidate constantly updated.
36 - Anti-Catholic Freudian slip?
34, not in London but that would be pretty crushing for Labour. Can’t see it happening though.
Betfair 1.1/1.11 - all over bar the hedging and profit taking?
O/T 2000 GUINEAS
Site followers who are also horseracing fans might like to know that I have just had £150ew at 4/1 on Raven’s Pass to win tomorrow’s big race.
sky predicting 52/48 split to Boris. Closer than thought last night
I am still quite taken aback at the Labour scale of defeat, I never imagined 20pt lead over Labour. You Gov had us at 18% once.
Comments have been made about the paucity of Labour’s response. Difficult I know, but there are no Labour big hitters left. Gordo has seen to that.. yet another apalling mistake, of Gordon’s own making.
39-As its the biggest count in one place the country has to deal with i agree that the rules should be changed.
I gather that everyone is quite relaxed at the count about making mobile phone calls and communicating with other people outside the hall.
Sky - 20% 1st preferences counted.
Johnson ahead in 10 of 14 constituencies.
Do I hear a large sigh of relief from YouGov Towers?
Boris by 4% allows both MORI and YouGov to breathe a bit more easily, I suppose.
Has anyone posted about Cardiff? No overall control. Labour in 3rd place.
Obviously a terrible night for Labour. The comparison is with 2004 where we did terribly, and there has been a 4.5% swing according to the BBC notionals.
Given that Labour won the 2005 GE after the terrible 2004 locals, these results imply an actual GE result of Con 38 (+5) Lab 32 (-4). Remember after the terrible 1995 Result the Tories did much better in 1997, despite a landslide defeat. The changes were Con (+6) Lab (-5). Mapping that to these results (in reverse) gives Con 39 Lab 30. These results would give the Conservatives a small majority.
Of course a lot could change in the next couple of years and as has been pointed out the economy could cause Labour more problems. It is clear, barring some unforseen event, that Labour will lose the next election but whether the Tories get a majority, and if so how much it will be, is very much in question.
Hat-tip to Iain Dale for this great image:
http://bp2.blogger.com/_z5hT1P0X79c/SBr4z8HfCfI/AAAAAAAAB24/8tVpOLULOYU/s320/guardiansorry.jpg
43. That result will be a bit of an anti-climax with regards the ‘Great Polling Company Showdown’. All of the polling companies can pretty much claim they had the result within MOE.
48 - Yougov will get the glory for calling it for Boris, ultimately
Wonder how many more than 200 the Tories final tally will be
So after last nights debacle and with the expectation of Boris winning later today can we say that Gordon Brown must be the biggest lame-duck Prime Minister since Eden went off on sick leave in 1956?
Two more years of this incompetent oaf beggars belief. Doesn’t the country deserve better?
49. 3rd in Cardiff! Yikes.
Labour are in danger of losing both their Celtic heartlands - Wales and Scotland. Where does that leave them as the dominant party? Moss Side?
49. Thanks a lot, I was asking about that earlier. I hope my vote helped the tories into 2nd
What if Ken has a significant lead on second preferences?
If people want to give Labour a bloody nose, might that not be a good way? Or am I now clutching at straws?
44 - Labour always do worse in local elections than the national opinion polls show. In terms of swing in the polls since 2004, which someone on here posted a few days ago, was suggesting an even bigger swing.
55. A couple more losses could have left them 4th behind Plaid.
51 That really needs putting under a picture of Boris!
Mike Smithson- you said betfair would be running at 1.1 on Boris on counting day.
What a prediction. Well done!
Con hold Rossendale - Sky
This local election very much backs up YouGov’s national polls, with the big double digit leads. If indeed Boris does win, YouGov will be THE major players at the general election.
47. Yes. The only thing that matters is some ways is that they called it right. But they got some backing this time [eg from Mike]because they were close last. They will be hoping they are really close to the result.
CON HOLD ROSSENDALE
65 - Gain you mean?
59. Sorry, not quite right there.
Lib Dem 35
Conservative 17
Labour 13
Plaid 7
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +191
LAB -8 -272
LIB -1 +30
OTH +1 +51
(Conservatives are closing in fast on 200 gains)
KIRKLESS, SWANSEA remains NOC
57. Please god, Frank, clutch all you like: us Ken supporters have only got about another 4 hours to be positive so let’s take any opportunity we can.
I’m still hopeful Ken will clinch it, Greens will get 2 list seats, and BNP will get none - but I wouldn’t bet on any of them!
45 “I gather that everyone is quite relaxed at the count….”
I have just scanned my Count Centre Addmission Policy document and found the following:
“No person attending at the verification of the ballot paper accounts shall express to any person an opinion based on information obtained at that verification as to the likely result of the election.”
But the most interesting part of the document is this:
The following items are prohibited from being brought into Count Centres;
• Offensives weapons eg. knives, tasers, etc.
• Imitation or toy weapons, including toy hand grenades and guns
• Items that could be readily converted into weapons
• Component parts of weapons
• Flares or fireworks
• Party poppers and party canons
• Alcohol
• Lasers, including presentation laser pointers
• Strobe lights and high intensity torches
• Hazardous materials eg. CS gas, pepper spray, gas canisters, acids and alkalis
• Spray paints or cans of paint
• Powders that are not personal prescription medicines or for cosmetic purposes
• Illegal drugs
• Pointed Scissors
• Pointed tweezers
• Knitting Needles
• Syringes (unless required for personal medical use)
• Placards and Banners
• Mobile phone jamming devices
• Items that could cause loud audible disruption e. whistles, megaphones, sirens, air horns, large radios/cd players
• Covert surveillance equipment
• Climbing and abseiling equipment
• Tools eg. pliers, screwdrivers, wire cutters, saws, etc.
• Any items considered to be suspicious by security staff that the owner can not provide a reasonable explanation for possessing
Not just hold on, but make 3 more gains from Labour.
66.I think Sky had it as a gain but it has gone off screen now.
59. They need more representatives in Cardiff. There was only one Plaid member contesting 3 seats in Cyncoed.
If you’re in Cardiff and Plaid, raise your head and you will surely be selected
63. What if he wins by 0.5%, when YouGuv predicted a much bigger win. Even if he wins, YouGuv is not necessarily going to be the most accurate pollster.
Gloucester remains NOC
A result from Scotland:
Troup ward Aberdeenshire Council by-election
SNP 1721 (62.8% - 2007 47.7)
Con 515 (18.8% - 2007 24.6)
LD 503 (18.3% - 2007 7.59
2007 20.11 - an independent took 20% in 2007
There should have been a Sun headline
with a photo of Boris
“Will the last person leaving London switch off the lights”
…
78 - Yeah but the Sun supported Boris
74. I’m amazed at some of the people I know - family friends etc - who are Plaid candidates in Cardiff. The Party has never had a real base there, but with the Assembly, I think that’s changed a bit.
Tories now have 55 [+9}, labour 15 [-8], LD 10[-1]
71-Oops looks loke my source has been a bit naughty then
Wonder if Boris will keep his pledge if he wins and attend this years Pride festival
Get him a nice pink Cadillac to stand in and lead the parade - would be intriguing ….
77. Thanks Marcia!!
Another brilliant SNP result
:D 
I had a look at Dumfries & Galloway council’s website - where the Tories held Abbey ward yesterday. But unfortunately they seem to miss out the 1st round prefs (only show the 3rd & 4th counts for some odd reason). I think the SNP did quite well, but do you have the full 1st pref result?
Sky calling Solihull as Con gain.
Best lay price on Ken is now…. 25.
78. Already been done:
http://www.tribunemagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/tribunecover.jpg
Taken from Ben Brogans Blog. More bad news for Labour…
“David Pitt-Watson has resigned as Labour general secretary, or rather he told NEC officers this morning that he won’t be taking up his appointment. It will be announced shortly. Last month I raised this possibility when I reported an account of a torrid meeting between him and Mr Brown. The timing is awkward as it looks like it’s linked to last night’s results, but in fact his departure is more due to a dispute over financial issues and specifically how to protect his wealth from the risk of Labour insolvency”
80. My friends (students) seem to be a lot more supportive of Plaid than the older generation. Plaid may be a dominating presence in 10 years or so. Or maybe my friends will just grow up
83. Woo that would be excellent to see
84 - I’ve been looking but no luck. I was expecting a decrease in Troup as Mitchell Burnett had a big personal vote. Our candidate lives just outside the ward and the LD candidate lives in MacDuff the main population base in the ward. To put on 15% is beyond my hopes.
Adam Boulton reporting some big leads for Boris in some of the areas he is head.
Adam Boulton:
Scoring system (per constituency)
Big lead = 5 points, small lead = 1 point
Boris 33 points
Ken 14 points
87. I don’t think mentioning terminal 5 would have helped their cause
Boulton hinting about quite a big Boris win after 25% of votes counted - who got the sense of it? - missed some.
‘Gen Sec’ PITT WATSON NOT GOING TO TAKE UP THE ROLE
or even the roll!
Good lib dem results in Swansea - promising for the GE. More losses for Plaid
87 now that is a cool mock up of the Sun headline - cool - thanks for making me smile - I would have liked to see Sian Berry win for the Greens but that was always a long shot - just hope the Greens do well in the Assembly elections and the Nazi party don’t gain any …
Boris 1.06, hasn’t been that low yet!
Noone with any ability wants to run the Labour Party! lol. A Boulton
Also per Boulton:
If turnout higher in Boris areas then he’ll do better than “scoring sytem”.
87. Dont forget to shut the door behind you lefties…
84. background:
In May 2007 the result (1st prefs) in Abbey ward (Dumfries & Galloway) was:
Con 33.8%
Lab 28.2%
SNP 17.8%
LD 4.86
+ several low votes for Inds
Aybody any idea of the percentage turnout? Is the bet recommended by Mike/PfP etc going to come in?
That Boulton info looks like the end.
42…good luck! i have Natagora at 18 on betfair for sunday’s race. i trust that she has been declared?
Is there a chance that Paddick could nick 2nd place if Ken is doing as bad as suggested?
Green gain highgate - camden off Con
Con gain seat in Ealing off lab
105) Boulton is no exaggerator, seemed to be saying “its over” in a nice way.
107 - No
Which party currently control outright the most councils in Wales?
Sky - Con gain Solihull!
109
Cue Roy Orbison….
108 - Are those by-election results?
108 to be far not necessarily a terrible result for the tories, as Greens held the other two seats iirc.
Boris now 1.05.
107. Would be nice though!
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +10 +196
LAB -8 -281
LIB -1 +32
OTH +0 +53
(BBC Figures reporting CON +195, LAB -226, LIB +24)
(125 of 159 councils have officially declared)
ooh British Elections just got a tiny mention on BBC World now on BBC America - but the lead story was the Zimbabwe Elections
and you are right Mr. Brown does look dour today … 
104- If you mean London Mayor Turnout then Sky are reporting 45% turnout.
Blair on Sky. He is looking increasingly deranged.
A remake of the Shining is in the offing, with Tony as the star
113) In honour of Sea Shanty Irish;
It breaks your heart in two
To know she’s been untrue
But, oh, what will you do?
When she says to you “Thereâ’s someone new”
“We’re throu-oo-ough, we’re through?”
It’s over, it’s over, it’s over
(Roy Orbison)
Son of madmacs is now a lib dem councillor.
Cameron on SKY in Bury. He’s cockerhoop and lapping it up.
117 - Not sure it would.
120. That’s not quite the remarkably high turnout we were promised on the election prgramme last night. Just getting us excited as usual?
Blair has almost certainly had a blepharoplasty procedure and (more) rhytidectomy in the last few months. In my (professional) opinion.
Con win hale by election in barnet with 900 majority. Was spilt labour/con ward till 2006
Tyson 43.The 4% lead for Boris is rubbish- it is based on some sort of average of several polls - which polls and when done not specified. YouGov figures now more likely to be correct, as they have been clearly most accurate in their national predictions. Can anyone explain the substantial difference between Sky and BBC reports of Labour losses(c.60 seats)?They must be working from different bases, which is odd.
129 someone is counting the shadow authorities in the figures.
120 Thanks Simon.
Looks like a winning bet then.
129 - There’s a suggestion that the discrepancy is due to the new Unitary Authority in Durham, which the BBC is reporting as a lot of Labour gains
Off topic but in reply to Julian at 129 nm the previous thread.
Apparently the courts may not be sharing your view about the Manifesto pledge on a referendum since Stuart Wheeler has just this morning won the right, in court, to challenge the decision not to hold a referendum.
The government’s case was completely rejected.
At the very least this delays the ability of Brown to allow the treaty to be ratified until after the case is heard.
Looks like another blow to Stalin’s authority. :-).
Does anyone know why Powys is such a large council? Does nobody live there?
Sam Coates’ source at the Evening Standard has just emailed us to say it’s looking “very, very good” for Boris - and presumably Yougov.
The Grunuiad has a startling view into an alternative universe in their summary of council changes:
Wales
Blaenau Gwent - Independent gain from Conservatives
88. “David Pitt-Watson has resigned as Labour general secretary…”
I guess this counts as a “good day to bury bad news”…under even worse news.
LIBDEMs gained 6 seats in Sheffield (and control)including the last Conservative seat which was in Nick Cleggs constituency
As Sean (3) says, PP did this before NH (thankfully for me), but at least there you could see the point. They get lots of free media exposure: “Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has paid out on Barack Obama” - so probably well worth it. But here it’s not remotely media worthy, because the result will be confirmed tonight, not several months away as with the case with Obama.
Anyone got an explanation? Seems thoroughly daft.
139) he was talking about them settling on the NH primary, not the general election or the democratic nomination.
137 When Guido first broke story he claimed Pitt-Watson was going to resign but not until after the elections - looks like he was right, the letter probably handed over at 10pm last night.
136. Core Tory voters abandoning Cameron in Blaenau Gwent?
BTW Independents don’t really succeed outside Wales in these elections.
Iain Dale says Ken leading by 30% in London North East constituency.
Boris leading by 20% in Barnet and Camden.
Boris leading by 5% in Enfield and Harringey.
Responses from last thread.
38 - Hi Sally, I’m at home and I was going to do some work on Wales but I’m too bleary-eyed after last night.
I’m just wishing I’d advised the news desk to run a ‘Boris on the way to healthy win’ story Jack reported. We’d looks bloody good this morning if I had.
Of course, I could have got sacked if Ken had gone on to win
122 - As I said last night, the starting positions of the relative races means a swing was always more likely to be bigger.
Labour lose Caerphilly.
We’re talking seismic disaster in Wales.
Interesting that the Labour / Guardian view yesterday was that Yougov was wrong and biased. Today, they are using the early Yougov polls in their spin - “it looks like Ken has done very well to come back from those early huge poll deficits, even if he loses”.
WARNING:
Dale now reports Con only marginally ahead in Brent & Harrow GLA seat. Con won that last time.
This, together with 30% Ken lead in North East, is the first sign of POSSIBLE bad news for Boris.
Labour party gen sec resigns - PolHome
147 - London NE is not suprising.
Enfield and Haringey Livingstone and Boris almost identical after 35% counted - last time 60/40 so excellent there
Camden and Barnet - Boris very well ahead after 22%, but don’t know which wards and that would make a huge difference.
If you haven’t already heard, Highgate Ward by-election in Camden - Green gain from Con (was a 2/1 Green/Con split ward):
Green 1483
Lab 1185
Con 1180
LD 663
Turnout 57%
Boris out from 1.05 to 1.1 in last few minutes.
148 - sorry - Brogan, not PolHOme
142- On BBC last night they were saying Independents in Wales are really Conservatives in disguise?!
Tories lose their 1 seat in Sheffield. Not a huge surprise but still a disapointment. Another Northern city without Tory representation.
140: but they did pay out on the nomination - that’s why it got so much media attention
153. I’m not surprised. To a lot of Welsh people, speaking the word ‘Conservative’ is considered taboo.
147 - Brent voters coming out to try save their favourite son?
129, 130, 132 - The difference between the BBC and Sky figures is probably caused by the fact that the BBC is not including seats in the new shadow unitary authorities in its calculation of councillors +/-. I suspect that Sky are comparing the results with ‘notional’ figures based on the 2005 county council elections.
145 Hard cheese innit!
Politics Home have a good presentation of results - detail by council after the summary.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +201
LAB -8 -284
LIB +0 +33
OTH -1 +50
(BBC Figures reporting CON +198, LAB -237, LIB +28)
(129 of 159 councils have officially declared)
Pickles salary is almost safe….
Simon Jenkins : Cameron is looking very much like tomorrow’s prime minister.. on CiF !
Poor old Pol, eh?
So New Labour are heading for 300 losses, not just the 200 that would be classed as bad. Can anyone see a pattern here.
In the 2000’s Labour vote share in England is around 24%, only a third of English people class themselves as British. Look back at Scotland in the 1980’s, the Tories got around 24% of the vote in the 1987 GE and only one in three Scots then classed themselves as British. Ten years later they were wiped off the political map in Scotland.
Just think could be on the cards now. Labour cling onto power using MPs from Scotland/Wales and imposing more unwanted policies onto England, in 2010 Labour gets wiped out in the South and gets replaced by the Lib Dems/BNP/EDP in the North. Labour are heading into the political abyss and they’ve done it all themselves by not having a true leadership election, not listening to the voters over the EU referendum issue and playing Auld Enemy politics against England.
The sooner New Labour are removed from office the better, but DC New Tories must do better otherwise nationalist politics will take over. At last England become a Labour free zone for good.
153 Most aren’t.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +206
LAB -8 -291
LIB +0 +33
OTH -1 +52
(BBC Figures reporting CON +198, LAB -237, LIB +28)
(129 of 159 councils have officially declared)
Pickles salary is almost safe….
What i don’t understand is that everyone knew/thought Boris would win on the 1st preference - but that is what everyone is basing his win on now - I thought it was all down to how the 2nd preferences went - or am I missing something
154 Apparently there are more northern councils without Labour representation than there are without Tory representation though you probably won’t hear that mentioned very often on the BBC.
162 - same old thing though = Scotland and Wales voted for Labour all through the Maggie and Major years and got ruled on by English politicians -
Yer daren’t take yer eyes off this page for a second. Better than both main news channels taken together. Good job, Mike & Co.
Labour lost 16 seats in Torfaen.
I’m guessing it’s another independent anti-Labour lefty group a la Blaenau Gwent but it still blunts the rusting Labour machine in South Wales.
What are best odds on Brown resigning/removed before xmas and Alan Johnson his successor?
166. Very true, thats probably why David Cameron is visiting North Tynside today, too prove just that point
166 - not first tier though, mainly small districts.
Tories currently won control of 2 councils in Wales. labour have 1.
147 - Mike L. - This is totally at odds with everything else we are hearing. I have heard Boris is outpolling Ken 4:1 in Bexley/Bromley and in Greenwich/Lewisham Ken is only leading by about 4:3, where he should be well ahead if he’s hoping to hang on.
The caveat to all this is that only around 25% has been counted so far and there is no way of telling whether the boxes have come from Labour or Conservative inclined areas.
And apparently the Lib Dem vote in Lewisham appears to have collapsed.
Boris now out to 1.15.
Very big move over last 30 mins.
166. Indeed, earlier on Sky the presenter was ramping up those nothern cities without Conservative representation and mentioned Leeds. Hague shot him down with the reality that the Conservatives lead LDC. Just goes to show how bad the basic journalistic knowledge of the make up of these authorities is.
labour look to be crashing to -300. this is turning into a complete rout, isnt it.
Chris Hune on SKY is quite clearly deranged. You’d think they’d won the GE. Constantly crowing about their gains in the north. So what!!
New Zogby Primary Polls for North Carolina and Indiana :
North Carolina -
Clinton 34% .. Obama 50%
Indiana -
Clinton 42% .. Obama 42%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1495
162. Ah but every nation had the same status before devolution. Now Scotland/Wales have devolution but England has to rules by a UK government with interference from Scottish/Welsh MPs. Labour are totally hypocritical on this matter.
175 - But with the caveat that we’re not actually leading the council in terms of seats held.
Still plenty of Welsh results to come for it to get worse for Labour.
This is an UNBELIEVABLY bad result for Labour.
What gains? Sheffield? That’s about it. Did they not mention Liverpool? Didn’t think so.
173.
John’s very small sample of Croydon postal votes did (if I remember correctly) also suggest a fall in Lib Dem support (along with Greens, who were possibly under 5%).
I think the London Assembly results could be very interesting - possibly even more surprising than the mayoralty.
Labour really have had a meltdown in Wales. Whats happened there, I wonder?
Michael Thrasher really is the voice of reason. This isn’t 2004. Labour are not going to revive and win the GE.
183 - 2007 was a meltdown as well - people didn’t really notice.
178. Obama’s denunciation of Wright starting to filter through methinks. The Wright issue has also completely gone from cable news now (with the exception of Fox - but Democrats don’t watch that).
Why do the LD’s continually attack the Tories. Surely they realise that they would be better off to concentrate on Labour. They’ve gained very little with this plan of attack. Why not give it a try and see what happens. They may be pleasantly surprised.
187. They enjoy the smears too much and as a party of the left, it is natural to smear the Conservatives. Common sense doesn’t register with the Lib Dems.
185 - It’s hard to really call a meltdown when they essentially still won. But how many councils are Labour going to have control of after today? It’s not going to be many.
Plaid are also looking like getting a bit of a kicking. I don’t think their voters are impressed with propping up Morgan.
183 The voters last year voted for parties opposed to Labour to kick them out of power in the Welsh Assembly. Plaid decided to keep them in so they are still there. Voters not happy last year with Labour, more unhappy now and saying so.
When was the last time the Conservatives controlled any of these councils?
Manchester
Liverpool
Sheffield
Newcastle
183. Over half of the gains have gone to the Tories (who were on a very low base). The rest of the vote is splitting in all directions. Understanding Welsh councils is pretty difficult. Places like Pembrokeshire, Powys are overwhelmingly controlled by independents.
186- socrates- Obama has been drifting outwards- now 2.5’s on betfair
191. They don’t need to to win a GE.
191-Does it matter if they control everywhere else?
191
I could probably ask you when Labour controlled any councils in the south!! Too many and I can’t be fagged.
Con gain Ackworth from Labour. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
181 Also Burnley, Hull…Liverpool finally held with the help of a sitting independent who decided to sign up as a lib dem to make sure Labour gained no toehold on power. Oldham exactly half the seats fo lib dems. Newcastle held. Looks pretty good up north for lib dems.
194. Exactly. I’d just like to know when they last controlled them. I’m presuming it wasn’t just prior to 1997 but the way the media ramp it up one would think these cities were Tory heartlands stubbornly holding back. It’s nonsense.
Plaid have been pessimistic about Gwynedd all night. I’m looking out for that result and RCT. How long are these places taking to count!?!?
Mind you, it keeps the excitement going. Shame I needed to sleep really
Losing Reading means that Labour have pretty much feck all in the south east now.
Boris now drifting a little on Betfair but even if Ken were to astound most of us by winning it wouldn’t really reflect well on Brown would it.
183 - The Welsh elections are all-out, that means losses will be higher. They are essentially losing seats that would have been lost in other places cumulatively over the last 4 years.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +223
LAB -8 -300
LIB +0 +30
OTH -1 +47
(BBC Figures reporting CON +211, LAB -243, LIB +30)
(133 of 159 councils have officially declared)
Pickles officialy now allowed to feel smug.
174 - “Boris now out to 1.15. Very big move over last 30 mins.”
What is happening?
Yes, this northern cities thing is a canard. It’s like saying - can you really claim to have had sex with a woman, if she kept her bra on?
It’s an interesting detail, but not a clincher. The Tories will win the GE if they get 44% of the vote, Manchester or no Manchester.
Re the mayoralty. I’m confused. When we hear the BoJo is, say, 10 points ahead in Brent - does that include the different preferences? And if so, how? How do they count them?
If it doesn’t include the 2nd prefs, then this race is far from over. No?
the tories held big northern urban cities in the 50’s i think , the macmillan governments .
Lots of people eeking out small margins on betfair on the bozza market
205 - nothing is happening. In fact Ken is now almost out to 10 to 1.
MB- as 20- people eeking out small margins as the price bubbles around. No more than that- Boris has won this thing
Wow, I never expected Labour to get -300
204. Good grief! Labour losing 300 seats is amazing. I don’t think anybody, anywhere, expected Labour to this badly. Not even Labour themselves!
If Newport goes to NOC (likely), and Labour manage to hold Rhondda CT, we have the amazing spectacle of Labour and the Conservatives holding the same number of councils in Wales…
Labour now lost 300 seats. Brown is going to be under a lot of pressure from within. Gone by 2009!
Great LD result in Milton Keynes - big loss in Olney ward, an upmarket rural area which went heavily Tory last time, but in the ward I live in, we were anticipating going down (held by 2 votes, then lost by 110 in the past two years) but we’ve held on by 120. With that result, the Lib Dems remain largest party, a very good result given the local media coverage.
Remember, people were saying before the election more than -200 for Labour was disaster teritory
Boris is MILES ahead. Second preferences are not going to break THAT much for Ken.
Ken has lost. Lost. Lost. Lost.
“Losing Reading means that Labour have pretty much feck all in the south east now.”
What sort of place is Stevenage (once a New Town) then? It’s in the SE and is Labour dominated … must now be chav-dominated, I suppose, with below-50% of the relevant age-group going to Uni (even including the 50 joke-unis).
212 - I suggested 300 losses for Labour yesterday on ConHome, with 285 gains for the Conservatives. Beginning to look a reasonable call!
216 - This is a disaster. A total 1995-type mid-term disaster.
Up to 300 losses and we’ve not finished yet. This is just totally ridiculous. No-one even made a chart going this far!
To think that good money was going on a 2008 spring election after Brown took over. Hadn’t Gordon planned his first 8 months to ensure a decisive victory in May?
How the might fall. Had the elction happened last night the Tories would have had a majority of 100
218 - Stevenage is technically in the Eastern Region!
To think that good money was going on a 2008 spring election after Brown took over. Hadn’t Gordon planned his first 8 months to ensure a decisive victory in May?
How the mighty fall. Had the election happened last night the Tories would have had a majority of 100
Jon Pienaar on BBC radio just now: “It’s not over yet but things don’t look good, BY A MILE, for Ken Livingstone.”
216. Absolutely. Even that rag the Guardian was admitting beforehand that -200 would be pretty nightmarish for Brown. And they onlt said that, no doubt, cause they thought it wouldn’t happen.
-300??
Incidentally, I have held on to yesterday’s Guardian, and haven’t opened it, because I want the pleasure of the hysterical, lefty, antiBojo screeds - as the result comes through of a BoJo victory.
But BoJo has to win first. Come on, Bozza, make my day.
207 The Tories also had 30+ seats in Scotland too? The political polarisation throughout the UK was driven by Scottish Labour left and don’t they know it.
By equating Scottish Tories with Englishness in the 1980’s, they’ve made themselves unelectable in the South because English people now equate New Labour with Scottishness. You reap what you sow.
Afternoon all. The sun is shining and the birds are singing.
Stunning Patriotic victories in Thurrock, Stoke, Nuneaton, Pendle, Herts, Rotherham, Loughton, Halifax & Amber Valley.
If the Patriots gain seats on the London Assembly I think the Tories will be relegated to page 2 of the weekend papers.
I still believe the Patriots have enough support to win 2 Assembly seats. Unfortunately I think there has been fraud on an industrial scale.
BNP Lodges Complaint Over Broken Seals on GLA Ballot Boxes
The newly elected British National Party councillor for Tilbury Riverside in Thurrock, Emma Colgate, reports in from the Alexandra Palace counting station:
“We have lodged an official complaint with the Returning Officer here over the large number of ballot boxes, stored overnight, which have had their seals broken and the contents obviously interfered with. The ballot boxes here are quite literally hanging open.
The Returning Officer says they have taken note, but that there is nothing we can do about it.”
Councillors Richard Barnbrook and Bob Bailey, leader and deputy leader of the BNP on Barking and Dagenham Council, and also the number one and two candidates on the GLA top-up list for the BNP, have, just a few minutes ago of writing, lodged a complaint with the election observers at ExCel in Central London.
More on this widespread fraud to follow shortly.
http://www.bnp.org.uk/2008/05/02/bnp-lodges-complaint-over-broken-seals-on-gla-ballot-boxes/
John Pienaar from City Hall just saying on 5Live that Boris is a mile ahead and he would hand over the cash if he’d had a private Ken/Boris bet and he’d backed Ken he’d hand over the cash now.
My home city final results - Stoke on Trent
Labour 17 (-7)
Nazis 9 (+3)
Cons 9 (+0)
Libs 6 (+1)
Ind 19 (+3)
those are net gains so pretty weird - and this City used to be 57-3 Labour as long as I remember but since I left for the states it just got worse and worse for Labour - are we now the biggest BNP stronghold in the U.K. - if so how sad for my home city - looking afar from the U.S. it looks pretty scary
yes - 200 would be a disaster, they said. 300 is approaching meltdown. if Boris wins by a comfortable margin, Brown will cack his pants.
Adam Bolton: Boris clearly ahead in 8 seats, Ken clearly ahead in 2 seats, 2 seats are close.
BBC stating Downing St sources fear Ken has lost!
218 - Stevenage is in Hertfordshire which is East of England regionally.
But if Labour want me to be generous and move towns into regions they are not in when writing analysis they can have that one
229 Who are the nazis? Labour or BNP? …. I can’t tell the difference.
223. 100? you are joking, more like 150 to 200. In fact when you have figures so skewed like that, you have inverted tactical voting etc you end up with Blair 1997 style result, if not worse.
Jackie Ashley - for it really is she - gives Brown until the conference… party should forge “a better Brown” & not replace him… and (there may be something wrong with my screen) ‘bring back Blunkett’. Desperate stuff from the loyalists, then. Heh.
Adam Bolton : Conservative on course to get 10 constituency members, vote is going the same way as 1st preference mayor votes
Gwynedd has been lost by Plaid Cymru. They lose their only council. Propping up Labour biting them on the bum. Though they remain the biggest party.
80 losses so far for Labour in Wales, still 5 councils to declare.
222 - Stevenage is like the Sainsbury wing of the National Gallery.
230 Send for nanny Oona, Gordon needs his nappy changing!
The Welsh results are a once in a generation (lifetime?) shifting of the political plates. This was a 9.2 on the Wrecked ‘Em scale.
The Welsh now officially hate Labour - gotta luv ‘em for that!
**** JACK W EXCLUSIVE FOR PB **** JACK W EXCLUSIVE FOR PB ****
With approx 30% of the vote counted from selected boroughs and in conjuction with the results of the ARSE Exit poll Jack W calls the London Mayoralty for :
BORIS JOHNSON **** BORIS JOHNSON **** BORIS JOHNSON **** BORIS JOHNSON
212 The Politics Home table of performance had Lose More than 200 seats as “Panic Stations” for Labour - so its far, far worse than worst expectations for them, coming third in National Vote is also Panic Stations (losing to Boris will just be Disappointing). Conservatives are however quaffing Champagne as they have exceeded win 200 seats or more, Smiling over their vote share and looking forward to more Champagne this evening. Lib Dems are in the Okay result on seats and share of national vote - though coming second means they can “Afford a Smile”
[227] Go away - No are not a “patriot”, since you support a violent racist bunch of thugs who spit on most things that this country stands for. The fact that a very few deluded idiots put their cross next to BNP-NF still does not take away from the fact that you have also beeen losing seats- as you deserve to..
220. Yes, 2008 will go down with 1968 and 2005 as one of those history defining moments. In the last 24 hours power had completely slipped away from Labour and to the Tories.
Spare a thought for how Labour members must be feeling right now, though. Even Conservatives are stunned by whats happening right now, so how must Labour supporters be feeling?
I’m waiting for the word from Paul Maggs… deciding what the actual net councillor gain/loss for the parties is a crucial element of the 2008 prediction competition! Is it going to be the Sky News figures or the BBC’s?
242
Three cheers for the Taffies!!
I’ll never refer to ‘em as sheepsh@ggers again
220: Why is 2005 “one of those history defining moments”?
245 - I totally agree with your comments
226. Not often I agree with you francis, but there is a certain truth in what you say here:
“By equating Scottish Tories with Englishness in the 1980’s, they’ve made themselves unelectable in the South because English people now equate New Labour with Scottishness. You reap what you sow.”
We may be seeing a paradigm shift. Labour are collapsing in southern England, and barely surviving in the north. However they are also dissolving in Wales, and are hard-pressed by the SNP in Scotland.
If this pattern repeats in a GE all bets are off. We could see Labour utterly routed, and reduced to maybe 150 seats, mostly in the north. That would be an historic reverse. And a Lib Dem opportunity, if they have the guts to seize it - which they don’t.
sorry, meant to refer to 246
Where is Mark Senior?
246. Sorry, that should have been 1995, not 2005. I’m running on coffee right now.
re the Nazis and Labour that was a pretty diabolic comment - the Labour party have given GLBT people more rights towards equality than they have ever had in history - we remember the Tory years with distaste = the Nazis persecuted gay people, put them in camps, and killed 1000s … so to compare Labour to the Nazis is insensitive and pretty narrow minded.
John Denham tying himself in knots and being made to sound desperate and foolish on radio 5.
http://www.threerivers.gov.uk/Default.aspx/Web/ElectionResult
One of the closest results of the night? Conservatives hold Northwick with 284 votes, ahead of Labour with 282 and Lib Dems with 276.
246 - I’ve suffered and worked through Tory disaster after Tory disaster. Writing about a Labour disaster is a bloody nice change!
I voted Tory in Wales! Woo, anyone else?
Christ, what the hell happened in Wales. Amazing stuff.
241. Post of the day. Made me choke on my vino!
Any reports of broken mobile phones in Downing Street?
Not impressed by BBC’s text results service. but greatly amused by Toynbee’s posturing getting the bird from the audience.
214 I think if Ken blames Gordon publicly for his defeat Gordon’s premiership will start to implode. He could be gone within days, weeks at most.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +230
LAB -9 -329
LIB +0 +29
OTH +0 +70
(BBC Figures reporting CON +211, LAB -243, LIB +30)
(133 of 159 councils have officially declared)
Sky News: “About 20 more councils to declare”
256 - What on earth can the poor man say. I actually think Labour MPs have been pretty good at accepting they’ve got stuffed today. To be honest, they’d have looked foolish if not but still..
245 If the BNP take a load of votes from the War Party thus letting in more Tories and Lib Dems then that’s fine by me. It’s Labour who’ve screwed up this country and lead us into an illegal war, the BNP are largely an irrelevant sideshow.
264. Will Labour drop to -400 before the end of the afternoon? :O
Sky showing 0 net council gains/losses for LDems.
I make it +2
+ Burnley
+ Sheffield
+ Hull
+ St Albans
- West Lindsey
- Pendle
Any thoughts?
More Boris Ken news please , whats happening… How long before Ken Concedes?>?
265 Clearly you’ve not heard the all the nonsensical desperate spin from some of ‘em that I have.
255 English people are treeted like third class citizens by this anti-English Labour government. The WLQ and public sector funding apartheid by New Labour against the English is acceptable in your eyes. Labour hates England and the English and wants unlimited immigration in England hoping that the English get displaced out of there own country, why won’t you admit the truth?
Will Nick P add his support to a vote of no confidence in Gord as Prime Minister?
My mole tells me Alan Johnson is being lined up for bigger and better things
As ever time will tell.
Labour have 56 councillors to defend in Rhondda. Must surely be a few losses here. Newport likely aswell. I think Sean fera’s article suggested 90 losses in Wales. Should be a bit worse than that. But Plaid have had a dreadful time too.
So they can’t use the scottish excuse - bleeding nationalists!
267 “Will Labour drop to -400 before the end of the afternoon?”
Stop it, you’re getting me over-excited!!
Who’d put money on a major reshuffle?
Ian Gibson says he gives Gordon 6 months…oh dear
272. Johnson was on BBC news at One saying Labour has got to stay united. On these losses and vote share though, I just can’t see it.
Best option for Labour now is to remove Brown and call an immediate general election to limit the damage. Then Johnson or whoever can at least stay on as Opposition leader.
272. He hasn’t finished his postal round yet. AJ not NP that is. Well actually he made need a new career soon!
275 - …of the deck chairs on the Titanic?
275- No no no, its a “Re-launch”, but dont call it that…..because it is acually a “Re-Re-Re-launch”
275
Of the deckchairs on the Titanic?
Self defeating.
I honestly thought 300 losses for Labour was wide of the mark - I didn’t expect it to get any worse for them, but at least the England hating Labour party are getting punished, and deservedly so.
269 I expect Livingstone to throw the towel in later this afternoon, long before the final tally is out.
Makes me smile - you don’t think the Tories would not have taken us into an illegal war in Iraq and you don’t think the Tories would not have been butt buddies with a Bush administration - then you must be dreaming - both parties would have gone to war to support the Bush regime - and no use pretending otherwise - both Labour and the Tories have supported illegal wars - and both have been responsible for deaths of innocent people … no difference really - both parties are much of a sameness but I take them on actions achieved - and when the Tory party actually do something for the GLBT community instead of enacting laws which attack them then maybe I will give them the time of day.
279. An excellent analogy. Only 2 years until it sinks
Don’t understand why Ken is STILL only at 10/1.
I have a friend in CCHQ who says Boris’ office is expecting to win 52%/48% and is currently discussing his acceptance speech with DC/Osbourne.
2nd hand info though…
268. Liverpool is treated as a loss despite the post result deal with an independent
283..and stick the knife into Gordon at the same time???
277. Are you serious? That would be insane. If they did that they’d earn even more voter contempt, they would guarantee a huge Tory landslide.
No, their only hope is to battle on with Tractor Man, and just hope something turns up. Events, dear boy, events. I don’t think changing leader would do anything - it would just make them look scared and divided.
They are surely headed for defeat, as of now, but a lot can happen in two years.
[286] If it is 52-48 then YouGov still have plenty of explaining to do…
284 But the Tories DIDN’T take us into an illegal war, Labour DID.
Blame where it’s due.
283
This from the Evening Standard.
It seem Gord has accepted that Ken’s reign is over.
Bookies pay out on Boris victory
Joe Murphy, Political Editor
Bookies began paying out on a Boris Johnson victory this afternoon.
Hours before the official announcement, bookmakers Paddy Power declared they believed the Tory had won the contest for London Mayor.
The £100,000 payout, which could backfire if Ken Livingstone wins, caught the mood of change in the capital after Labour suffered its worst town hall election results for 40 years.
It crashed to third place with only 24 per cent of the vote. The Prime Minister also appeared to think a Johnson victory was on the cards. He said he had called Mr Livingstone to thank him for all he had done for the capital.
“I congratulated him on what he had done to secure the Olympics for London, what he had done for transport, what he had done to improve policing.”
Why are they making us wait so long for the result? Labour are destroying the fine British tradition of election night with their Friday counts.
284 The problem is Labour lied about the reasons why we went to war in the first place. OK the Tories supported it, but the New Labour cabinet had all the information in front of them the Tories did not.
The first Gulf War back in 1991 was more justified but even then I thought the reasons were a bit thin.
288 I expect him to give Brown a good kicking on the way out.
289. I agree. Time is the only asset they have. It would be mad to throw it away.
289. I don’t think anything can/will happen after this. The size of this defeat is a power moving moment. Power has literally slipped away from Labour today and they will never get it back. If they carry on with Brown the Tories will be on course for a three digit landslide by 2010, IMO. At least with a new leader Labout *might* be able to rejuvenate their core and limit some of the damage.
It’s 1.01 that Paddick will get 10-15%, any chance of it being different?
293 - Drip feeding poison into a Labour wound. It’s actually quite amusingly proloning the agony
297. will be interesting to see what the mood in Westminster is like when the MPs return on Tuesay….can imagine it getting a little tasty!
284. Which illegal war did the Conservatives take us into, and how was it illegal?
291 voxpox. Actually the vast majority of Conservative MP’s voted for the war and both Howard and Cameron have said even knowing what they know now about the intel that they swould till support the war.
Even the communication wing of the Labour party (AKA BBC) are approaching the 300 loss mark
I heard somewhere that the latest figures on child poverty were due to be released today.
Has anyone seen them?
I heard somewhere that the latest figures on child poverty were due to be released today.
Has anyone seen them?
[293] The direct election for London Mayor is, I think, the third largest election in Europe, after the direct elections for the Presidents of France and of Portugal- 5 million electorate and on these turnout numbers 3 million votes- it is on a totally diofferent scale even compared to the constituencies for Westminster and the european parliament. As a result, even if they started counting last night at 11 they would be toiling to get a result before lunch. Thus, in order to save some money, it was decided to count in the day.
Dale speaks of valid Bozza votes being discarded… not enough Tory scrutineers at Excel.
293 - Am I right in thinking that counting staff are traditionally volunteers? In which case I guess that with electronic counting they have to pay the contractors to be there to supervise the system, and would have to pay extra for a night-time count.
hertfordshire? eastern region? part of it is inside the M25!
287
and the other? Durham?
What will be the final total. I’d say -317.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +234
LAB -10 -358
LIB +0 +43
OTH +2 +81
(BBC Figures reporting CON +211, LAB -243, LIB +30)
(133 of 159 councils have officially declared)
BBC havent updated for ages.
Stick with a loser like Gordo or get rid of him and put in some nonentity like Johnson?
Labour are betweeen a rock and a hard place and are on the skids whatever they do, particularly with house prices beginning their long downward correction and much more bad news ahead on the economy.
297. Not the least flaw in your argument is that Labour have no obvious mechanism for booting out Brown. And I just can’t see Gordo throwing in the towel (unless his health goes, or there is some terrible scandal).
He’s waited ten years to be PM. OK, it turns out he’s the worst leader since Aethelred the Unready, but he’s still in Number 10 as of now. The only way he’s leaving is after a GE defeat, I reckon.
What is laughable is, despite just how bad these results are, Labour are challenged on them and the broadcasters seem to lap up their excuses and soundbytes. This idea that people are giving Labour a quick telling off before coming back to them is insulting.
44% of the electorate gave the Conservatives their vote and still the media is too disingenuous to give them their dues.
BBC now updated
Councillors Councils
Party +/- Total +/- Total
CON 232 2796 12 60
LAB -283 2171 -9 15
LD 30 1666 1 11
PC 9 146 -1 0
OTH 12 781 0 0
NOC - - -3 60
144 of 159 councils have officially declared.
193. A delayed reaction I think.
Con just fail to take Barrow in Furness
Northumberland NOC as expected
304- They were delayed *another* month
Now talk on ConHome of ballot boxes broken into overnight. Skulguggery afoot?
309 - I’m only telling you the facts. Its not me that divides up the country into Euro-regions.
But if Labour want to spin that Stevenage is in the South East to pretend they haven’t been wiped out there they can have it. If it helps keep Brown in power they can take my car to tour it!
Duggery, even
302 They didn’t lead us into it though nor did they lie about the 45 minute scare and the presence of WMD.
309 When I lived in Stevenage I always thought it was part of the South East but apparently not.
Stevenage Council is well run and so LAB are only slowly losing seats to the tories - it is very different to the parliamentary seat which includes a lot of surrounding villages.
Ken & Barabara Follett are going to have to spend more time with their money.
This is the eventual legacy of Blair - just like Thatcher, leave your party in an absolute mess.
How long till Labour next wins a general election? 2024?
320. Tower Hamlets?
Ten years ago in my home patch of Burnley, Labour’s total dominance of the council meant they had THIRTY TIMES the number of councillors as the Tories (30+ Lab, 1 Tory).
It’s now 12 Lab and 6 Tory. Just twice the number. I reckon it could be 6 each next year if the LDs repeat yesterday’s feat again.
Some turnaround. No chance of Kitty Ussher holding the seat for Labour at the GE I expect.
Northumberland result:
Liberal Democrat 26
Conservative 17
Labour 17
Others 7
Con and Lab the same in Northumberland?!
Expect Labour to jump 17 in BBC figures…
306 Remember the speed of the French election results? If they were counted more locally, with precinct reporting as they counted we would probably have known by midnight.
Another example of centralisation for efficiency delivering poorer outcomes.
321 bit harsh to call that spin! it is in the south east!
Another beeb update
Councillors Councils
Party +/- Total +/- Total
CON 232 2830 12 60
LAB -291 2196 -9 15
LD 29 1693 1 11
PC 9 146 -1 0
OTH 19 798 0 0
NOC - - -3 60
146 of 159 councils have officially declared.
New Mike Downs Center Primary Poll for Indiana :
Clinton 52% .. Obama 45%
http://www.mikedownscenter.org/elresult.htm
103 - Stuart first preferences are now available:
Tories - 1713 (40.5%)
Labour - 1393 (33%)
SNP - 755 (17.9%)
Ind - 173 (4.1%)
Lib Dem - 164 (3.9%)
Lib Dems largest party on Northumberland: Lib Dem 26 Labour 17 Tories 17.
FTSE 100 up 115, obviously the markets like the results
BBC News seems to be down for quite a few people
315. The more closely I’ve observed politics, the more depressed with how much those in the media - even the unbiased ones - allow themselves to be manipulated by talking points put forward from both sides. News channels should cover spun lines as footnotes, and they should do the same for gimmicky initiatives. They could fill up the lost time with important issues, like the humanitarian crisis in the Eastern Congo, or the lack of democracy in the EU.
First result from the Crewe & Nantwich part of Cheshire East is in.
Conservatives have won 2 seats in Crewe West, with 1 Labour Councillor returned.
Labour polled 53% in this division at the last County election with the Conservatives on 29%.
If these results continue it looks very ominous for Labour at the by-election.
323 voxpox. Utter spin !! Repeat …. Howard and Cameron still support the war.
What do people think is the most remarkable Con gain so far?
The difference in the way Sky & BBC have dealt with these new unitaries is a perfect example of the BBC’s failure. Sky have realistic +/- figures (presumably notional?), which are then fed into the totals, whereas the Beeb have just thrown their hands in the air and given up trying to incorporate them into the totals.
Is there any read of the ‘Patriots’ getting a seat/s in town?
I wonder what will happen in the media if C&N falls. Will it be a case of, ‘well when you win a by-election in Newcastle Central you might just be making process…’?
331- You getting the results of teletext? The BBC website still hasnt updated.
340. Southampton.
331- You getting the results off teletext? The BBC website still hasnt updated.
333 - thanks Max for the info
Burnley has one of the longest Labour traditions in the whole country. Peter Pike held it through the Thatcher years. The chance of Kitty Ussher being beaten in 2010 is roughly zero.
Website .. massive shift against the LDs recently
only up +28
Councillors Councils
Party +/- Total +/- Total
CON 233 2858 12 61
LAB -291 2207 -9 15
LD 28 1702 1 11
PC 9 146 -1 0
OTH 19 798 0 0
NOC - - -3 60
147 of 159 councils declared.
339. The Conservatives would almost certainly have taken us into this war, but they would have probably been honest about why they did. None of this WMD/links to Al-Qaeda crap.
Did i just hear Kevin Maguire say Gordon has ditched 42 days?? BBC news24…
Iain - Get back on message. There is no chance of Labour losing C & N.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=bo5ABjnkBgA
Iain Dale’s Diary being watched by Cameron!
All I keep hearing is ‘I don’t detect any enthusiasm for voting Conservative’.
What part of a 44% share and a 20% lead do Labour fail to understand? And why do the media set such store against such conjecture as opposed to the cold hard facts of election results?
351. No
339 Howard: so what? And even he reckons he was conned by Blair’s lies.
Cameron: He has to be seen not to undermine the troops while they’re still out there. The fact remains that Labour engineered this and the Tories played only the bittiest of bit parts.
Benny @ 340:
Lowton East Ward in Wigan MBC is my pick of the day. Conservative candidate James Grundy came from third place and 6000 behind to win with a majority of 1000. James is the first Conservative Councillor in the Leigh constituency for three decades.
349
+42 on Sky.
chance of finishing +50?
330 - Not according to our masters in Brussels its not. Try voting there next year and you’ll be lumped in with Norwich rather than Brighton.
Of course, that also doesn’t count London as it is a separate region of its own.
So no need for Labour to panic. I think they should keep Gordon Brown.
Time for some bar charts saying NuLab, winning here.
355 what did he say?
From Iain Dale site:
“2.21 Inside info from the London counts…
City and East GLA seat: Labour leading 65:35
Greenwich and Lewisham: Labour leading 60:40
Bexley and Bromley: Con leading 80:20
Croydon & Sutton: Con leading 65:35″
Had to smile. Just turned on the TV hoping to see some happy Tory faces. Tony McNulty came on Sky so switched to BBC News to be greeted by Michael White and Kevin McGuire!
351 No, he’s been listening to people and has decided to put it back up to 90 days
357. That is excellent, I’ve got a feeling a few similar stories to that will be reported over the country.
In Yorkshire there are quite a few con gains by 20-40 votes!
362 Was Dame Michael frothing at the mouth?
354 - Only the BBC are falling for it. Adam Boulton attacked Ivan Lewis spinning in that way last night by calling his remarks disgraceful. Purnell was most discomfited and spun less than he planned to after that!
Boulton for the Beeb!
But since his surname is not Dimbleby he remains on satellite only and those who watch the BBC are treated like children. I’m seriously angry that the BBC are letting down the public so badly with crap like a stetson-clad Vine.
356 voxpox. Well only the “bittiest of bit parts” if you regard voting for it in the Commons …. and Howard saying that Blair should have been bombing Bagdad sooner !! ….. Tories should have listened to Ken Clarke on Iraq.
Anyway why are you batting on a sticky Tory wicket on the war on such a day as this.
359. fascinating. I wonder what they make of the London borough of barnet which is also in hertfordshire?
and I wonder if Boris needs these imported “east of england” votes to win in London? possible controversy
Certainly a discrepancy between Sky and Beeb councillour figures…
Something is going on the betfair mayoral race
ok. back to normal. sorry.
348. Sorry David, but I live there and Ussher is utterly reviled in the town. Parachuted in from London, she was more focused on becoming a junior minister than battling Labour’s closure of our A+E. Hence the big lib dem gains in past two years.
She’s a goner.
Conservatives win 2 seats in Crewe North to Labour’s 1.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +235
LAB -10 -358
LIB +0 +42
OTH +2 +81
349- Grrrr, BBC website for me isnt updating….
Adam Bolton from London Reporting: 1/3 of the result in, Conservatives giving Labour a walloping
370. It’s been pretty stationary for the last couple of hours
370. It’s gone now. Someone put down £40K (yes, that’s £40,000) against Johnson, but then removed it.
That sort of money always moves the market. It’s settled now
Boulton and Travers on Sky both say that based on screens showing counts that Boris looks to be winning.
366- I remember reading an interview with Adam Bolton a couple of years ago where he said he turned down a job at the BBC.
**** Jack W Exclusive for PB **** Jack W Exclusive for PB ****
Ken is only polling no more 3% above Labour GLA candidates …. and likely to lose on second preferences by 10 points plus !!!!
My ARSE exit poll is vindicated !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The BBC election coverage has been dire. Grey, tedious, and slow. They treated viewers as moronic consumers of graphic tat fronted by Vine stuttering through a pathetic and uniformative routine: amateur night.
King looked as if he had just be disinterred, Robinson spent some time early on trying to butter up Labour, and later reluctantly talked about what was really happening.
Dimbulbum was his usual self, although he was the best of the bunch.
Agreed Jack. The Tories should have listened to Ken Clarke and most of ‘em including Howard and Hague don’t come out of it with any credit. But let’s put 99% of the blame where it belongs with the government of Blair, Brown and co.
Like an earlier poster said, a Tory govt may well have followed the Yanks into Iraq but without some or all of the lies about Al-Q/WMD/45 minutes etc.
246: Thanks, GIN! How are we feeling? Oh, a bit unenthusiastic.
Had the Sunday Times on the phone eagerly asking if I felt desperate, wanted to depose Brown, etc. - she seemed a bit shocked to find me chatting normally, like going to a funeral and finding the corpse sipping a Martini. Unnerving.
I think Amber Valley wins the prize for marginality last night. Laour held two seats by a single vote - one vs the Tories, one vs the BNP (I personally turned a few votes on the doorstep there).
372 - I know she was parachuted. I didn’t realise she was personally loathed. I bow to your local knowledge.
But in the normal scheme of things (i.e the local candidate was at least OK) Burnley should remain Labour until armageddon.
Once question is whether the independent movement in Wales will lead to any more people’s voice-style candidates taking heartland seats from Labour in 2010. Torfaen looks to be the most likely.
But they hold RCT so at last some good news.
We can stop worrying about where Stevenage is - Labour have gained Slough.
381 foxy voxy …. we’ll call it quits !! …. more important newts to fry !!
378 - I think that was because of the Dimbleby factor.
227 The “patriots” have also lost three seats, and missed out in places where they might have expected to do better. A net gain of a dozen or so is not a bad result, but hardly much to get excited about.
a sceret pic of Boris already celebrating has arrived on my desk
> http://tinyurl.com/6hc8do
380 Witan
Stop sitting on the fence !!
380 I hope an incoming Tory government enforces sweeping changes at this bloated, biased disgrace of a so-called public service broadcaster. The licence fee should be slashed too.
384 - They’re welcome to it…
333. Thanks Max! Well done. Excellent result for the Scottish Tories there in the south. But you must be disappointed with the Aberdeenshire result?
388 jimbo he has aged overnight.
382 Nick, the BNP do seem to have created a significant presence in Amber Valley. Not particulalrly comforting to hear they only missed out on another seat by one vote…
380: I didn’t think the BBC coverage was that bad if you leave out the dreadful Vine showman stuff (did you catch the LibDem blogger saying so and getting switched off p.d.q.?). They presented the council results cleanly with tidy graphics, brought out the vote share projection early, and settled on an interpretation fairly early on. I’ve seen a lot worse, e.g. their US election coverage.
384 - Thank god
that was heading to be my most pointless political discussion of all time 
Wasn’t LibDem spinmeister Rennard saying the Tories needed a (ludicrous) 300 gains to be seen to make progress?
I reckon he won’t be far off actually.
385 There’s much to be glad for today. Rejoice, Rejoice!!
According to the BBC Labour gain Slough.
395. Time to take Mr King to the glue factory though - he thought that the Cons not winning Worcs was some sort of disaster.
Jack W I was being restrained.
Looks like Wakefield may be lost by Labour for the first time ever. Few results still to come.
Obama picked up the daily superdelegate, from Massach.
382 “I personally turned a few votes on the doorstep there”
Well done Nick. It’s a Cabinet place for you, my lad!!
387 Sean. Actually Sean, the BNP results are utterly pathetic. With the tabloid press running amock over immigration stories the Fascist ‘Pratriots’ should have done vastly better than such a meagre haul …. a total bunch of amateur thugs and fruitcakes.
Barack Obama has claimed that video games such as Grand Theft Auto IV are “raising our kids”.
The US presidential candidate referred to the new release during a speech in Indiana.
GamePolitics quotes him as saying: “I was just catching the news this morning about Grand Theft Auto, this video game, which is gonna break all records and make goo-gobs of money for whoever designed it.
“Now, this isn’t intended for kids, although I promise you there are kids who are playing it, but these video games are raising our kids.
“Across the board, middle-class, upper-class, working-class kids, they’re spending a huge amount of their time not on their studies, but on entertainment.”
He urged Americans to encourage their children to turn off the TV and focus on doing well in school.
Grand Theft Auto IV was released on Tuesday for Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3.
395 - It had some good points. But why oh why couldn’t they have given us, say, a profile of the new authorities in Cheshire, perhaps with reference to the by-election? It really isn’t that hard to fill the gaps where not much is happening with something better than the cr*p we had from Vine.
Highlight for me was the interview with Boris’s old man. Definitely no question of any involvement from the milkman there…
395 - The point is that they have got so many resources that their coverage should be fantastic. Wasting 5 minutes at a time on peurile graphics just makes people laugh at them. I almost understand it at 10-11pm when the causal news viewers are watching but by 3am its only nerds like us watching and we want serious analysis. Sky News has a fraction of the budget of the Beeb but looks so much more professional.
And why are the same staff used EVERY election. Will they only replace King and Dimbleby when they die?
I hope everything is okay; ’cause I put thousands on Boris at 1.1 on betfair.
Why would anybody in his right mind offer such a deal?
381 93% of Tory MPs voted for the Iraq War, 67% of LAbour MPs, 0% of lib dem mps
Eleven councils to declare, according to Auntie. Reckon Labour can plumb the depths of -300 seats? Are the remaining councils particularly Labour or Tory friendly do we know…?
“And why are the same staff used EVERY election. Will they only replace King and Dimbleby when they die?”
Probably not even then.
Slough was Lab 19 / Everyone else 22….so not a big swing needed, although there do seem to be a few southern seats that are bucking the trend and swinging too Labour.
Rasmussen McCain 48 Obama 42 Clinton only 1 behind Mc 45-44.
She lead Obama by 2.
I guess this is probably as bad as it will get for Obama as it is the end of the 4 day tracking which includes the immediate reaction to the Wright rant.
BUT it does appear to differ from the Zogby polls which were quite good for Obama, but which covered the last 2 days of the same period.
Watch tomorrows
411 - Even Auntie’s flawed measure will have Labour -300 very soon. Mark my words
384. the two places are quite similar
382. So Nick, you personally turned a few votes on the doorstep there, but Lab still managed to cling on?
412 - King already has. They just wheel him out of cold storage every year.
AARRRGHHHHHH I used “too” wrong!
(Goes off and kills himself)
416 - The only reason Betjeman wrote “Come friendly bombs and fall on SLough” was that Stevenage wouldn’t scan…
394 - yes, there has always been a racist presence in the ex-coalfield area running down to Ilkeston (which I believe used to have some Combat 88 people too, i.e. Nazis who prepare for racial war): it ebbs and flows.
Their E Mids strategy was focused around Sadie Graham in Brinsley (Broxtowe borough, but Ashfield constituency) until she fell out with the leadership in spectacluar style. But people who want to vote BNP aren’t fussed about splits and allegations of criminality and all that. Ironically (but not unusually for this sort of thing) the area is almost 100% white - it’s easiest to fear something you don’t see. You don’t find the BNP doing well in places like Ealing where people actually experience multi-culturalism and find it unscary, though it’s different where different communities jostle for preference in neighbouring areas, as in some Lancashire towns.
410 And the Labour govt lead us into it. Last word from me on the subject.
I await Livingstone throwing the towel in before teatime.
413 - Not seen the full results but could well be replacing some of the independents in Labour-leaning areas moving back rather than a real pro-Lab swing. We”ll see.
408 David Dimbleby, like George Osborne, was editor of Isis and a member of the Bullington - so he will be OK under the New Regime.
Three Cons gains in Bradford, but all from Labour. So looks as if our David Herdson didn’t quite make it against the Orange whispy-beardies.
. A fearsome rear-guarded Jacobite retribution must surely ensue.
John Sopel struggling to keep a straight face when saying that Boris Johnson could be London’s next Mayor by tonight. absolutely hilarious. Come on the Boz Monster
I hear Boris ahead by about 250,000- sounds like the 10% gap in Jacks ARSE….
420 Perhaps thousands of white working-class, former Labour voters wouldn’t be turning in desperation to the BNP if they didn’t feel so badly let down, and even betrayed, by your party, eh Nick?
The commons seat spread markets are going crazy. I’ve made myself £3337 since 1.15pm
..and then there are the profits from Boris to come.
422 - no, I think there were some specific issues with the Slough Conservatives that the local Labour group were able to key off; it wasn’t a notional re-badging of independents.
405 It’ll be interesting to look at their vote share, since they’re counting on a high vote share, much more than council seat wins, to get into the European Parliament. Like the SDP, they pick up quite a lot of substantial votes, without translating them into many seats (and some of their councillors end up damaging the party through their behaviour).
Used to live in Windsor but visited Slough for the Cinema and actually took professional exams at Thames Valley “University”…..Lefties are more than welcome to it..it really was a camel’s arse of a place…like many other ZaNu-Labour strongholds..
Betejeman was being polite…
416 - lol, ed!
420 - Good points, Nick.
I remember writing about ‘no-go areas’ in Oldham for a book and getting a letter from Michael Meacher saying that there were ‘no no-go areas in Oldham’. I think his point was that as a London based writer I had no idea about the situation in Oldham etc.
However, I got my A-Levels at Oldham VI Form College and even the two common rooms there are split with the large one being full of white students and the smaller one being full of Asians with almost no cross-over.
There is something seriously wrong in many northern towns.
I went out in central Rochdale with an Asian friend from Croydon and we went to the bars and clubs and my friend was amused he was the only Asian around. When I told him there was a sizeable Asian community in Rochdale he looked at me and said: ‘where’? He had a point, I couldn’t see anyone.
428
Yes Mike, I posted earlier SF price and got no reaction here
Also been tipping towards Coral 0-25 Con GE maj at 9.0 for weeks.
goodnight labour. we may see you back in 2025…..thank god this bunch of corrupt w@nkers are going to be turfed out.
funny thing just looking at the Stoke results and the Tories lost a seat to the British Nasty Party ……
428. Oi! Can you make me some?
Tories take all seats contested in Harrogate [ie all held and two gained]. One gain was a LD seat whose results this year were… 865 Tory… 134 LD! No idea what sort of swing that is [therefore not doing a full Mark Senior].
Zim result announced!
Tsangurai 47.9%
Mugabe 43.2%
(Apols for spelling if wrong)
428 You too eh Mike !!!
424 John O. I wasn’t asked for a Jacobite blessing ?!?!
439 - Imagine how much Zanu must have really lost by if that was the best ballot stuffing they could manage!?!?!
[405] Agreed Jack- actually the BNP-NF result is a pretty pathetic display. While not helped by the high incidence of criminals and fruitcakes that these parties seem to choose as their candidates, I think that almost everybody just finds them too creepy and sinister to vote for.
Re: 387 Sean Fear - “A net gain of a dozen or so is not a bad result, but hardly much to get excited about.”
Yesterday I predicted 15 seats gained. That’ll end up being about right. However, it’s not the wins that are significant - it’s the huge vote share in many areas. We could stand a bulldog with a red/white/blue rosette in most areas and still get 15-20%.
Stoke and Barking & Dagenham will have Patriotic councils within four years.
Re: 405 Jack W - “Actually Sean, the BNP results are utterly pathetic”.
Mr W, considering your age I think it’s time for your afternoon nap. You don’t want to post any more silly comments whilst your tired.
btw - I hope your ARSE is accurate.
431: Chuckle, Tories can’t bear to lose s single council to Labour without a rant, can they? Some of you guys are hard to please.
439, means a runoff. But the MDC claim the verification process was halted abruptly to prevent them exposing fraud and are calling it daylight robbery.
Remains to be seen how this will turn out.
439 Yes, but will Comrade Mugabe go willingly?
Closer to home, will Comrade Livingstone go willingly?
440 - You speak wise words. David has only himself to blame.
We should all give Mike £10 and get him to make us some money :p
Tried linking to David Herdson’s result but wasn’t liked by filter:
Lib Dem Orange Beardies 3,122
John David Herdson 2,230
Red Menace 292
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +234
LAB -9 -354
LIB +0 +41
OTH +1 +79
(This inculdes the Slough Result)
Greens win Highgate byelection in Camden. Tories pushed into third by Labour.
444 Hi Nick - when are you sending off the £20 to Helen House Hospice - or aren’t you as generous as Paddy Power?!
I think the Lib Dems result is more of a surprise than Labour’s or the Tories’
420. Nick, it may be a small thing but if you did play a part in stopping a Nazi getting into power at least you can hold your head high today.
I fear a rough few years ahead politically.
Sorry that should have been David John Herdson
Some people are so stupid.
One of my flatmates asked me what party Gordon Brown represents and another friend asked me why I should be interested in how people voted yesterday as I don’t live in London (he had no idea other people were voting too).
Ugh!
443 - “We could stand a bulldog with a red/white/blue rosette in most areas and still get 15-20%.”
An apt description of the typical BNP candidate, albeit an insult to the average bulldog.
I understand that President Mbeki has issued a statement saying that there is no crisis in London and that he will arrive later this evening for talks with Ken to compare notes on being given the boot.
Cleggover kicking the Tories again on Sky. No doubt whose bed he’ll jump into if needed.
Littered with factual errors too.
457. a major insult, bulldogs are very cute, even I think that and I’m hard hearted usually.
Actually can people stop posting ‘Zanu-Lab’. It’s not really funny. I don’t vote Labour but I have yet to be beaten up by Brownites for voting Tory.
People going overboard about the opposition is one of the most dispiriting things on election nights. I do like the fact that John Prescott and the Labour left have so clearly failed to ‘crush the Tories for a generation’ which was their stated aim which they thought they had achieved.
Unless you think generations are very short of course. Maybe if you live in Doncaster
443. “We could stand a bulldog with a red/white/blue rosette in most areas and still get 15-20%.”
I heard you’d already tried the bulldog’s campaign literature through the letterbox.
According the East London Advertiser, Boris is leading strongly in Havering & Redbridge and Bexley & Bromley. Ken is leading in Greenwich & Lewisham.
Labour was leading the Tories in the City and East GLA seat.
[457]
452: Soon! Remind me of the address? And was it £20 or £30? - I remember we dioscussed uppping it but can’t remember what we agreed.
454: thanks, Ernesto!
448. thtas want I was thinking. He could bet for us and then take a cut. Pimp betting…
Clegg [please don't sack me, please]and Labour desparados all over the airwaves.
Hardly a Tory to be seen.
Don’t want to be seen gloating? no need to spin? preparing for Government? drunk under their desks?
The councils the LD have won are going to be repeated over and over again [Sheffield Burnley etc...] So far they have lost about as many as they have won.
449 Ted. Isn’t that worse than expected for David ??
458- Aparently there are lots of African journalists smuggling news reports out of the UK via the Channel Tunnel.
444. Heh..thats no rant…Slough really is a Camel’s arse and I defy anyone whose been there to say otherwise..you are genuinely welcome to it…
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +241
LAB -10 -362
LIB +0 +40
OTH +2 +81
(Includes Wakefield Result [LAB HOLD])
Oh well. Labour hold Wakefield in the end 32-30. Cons +7, Lab -8, LD -1, Others +2
469. like Stevenage, there are some pretty posh villages next door
Continuation thread - please switch
“I don’t vote Labour but I have yet to be beaten up by Brownites for voting Tory.” - Oh yes, you have.
They call it tax, NI,Fuel Duty, Council Tax etc.
459 - But it represents the reality of the Lib Dem position. They fight Tories in general elections, not Labour. A tsunami of Tory votes in the next general election will drown the Liberal Democrats back to 1992 levels of support.
The most satisfying thing for Clegg is they seem to have held their ground. But that doesn’t alter the basic electoral fact that they hold most of their seats from the Tories. Unless you really think they can win against Labour in Liverpool and Sheffield in 2010. I don’t.
So Clegg attacking the Tories is doing the only thing he realistically can. It’s not rocket sciense, just psephology
469 BBC’s results will look nowhere near as bad as that because of Durham and Northumberland, plus they’ll probably count whatever seats Labour manages to hold onto on the Cheshire authorities as gains too!
474 - LOL spelling psephology right and science wrong
Whoops, got the councils wrong…
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +243
LAB -9 -364
LIB +0 +40
OTH +1 +81
(Includes Cherwell Result [CON HOLD])
I see the FTSE is soaring on the news that the Tories are on the way back.
Just read a rather fun article from a despairing Labour supporter on CiF here: http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jonathan_myerson/2008/05/we_are_really_in_trouble.html
Excerpts:
“Yes, I sympathise with all those Labour councillors who have worked hard and diligently run their councils only to now find themselves looking for a new hobby. But sympathy is valueless in this game. As a party, we are really in trouble. When we lose Bury to the Tories, it’s time to… it’s time to… well, that’s the problem, isn’t it? What can Labour do now? Another relaunch? You start to look like Madonna. A new raft of policy proposals? The cupboard is bare, we’ve given all we’ve got. A massive tax giveaway? He tried that with his last budget and look what happened.
The trouble is, when you hit this low, people aren’t going to believe any of it.”
And:
“When you lose four seats to the Socialist People’s party of Furness, you really know you’re in trouble. No, when you lose to Boris Johnson, you’re really in trouble. When Cameron announced the Blond Oaf’s candidacy all those months ago, we laughed. We thought this is ridiculous. OK, the Tories want to have some fun, make a splash but they know they can’t win. But a combination of Veronica “Goebbels Knew Nothing” Wadley and Lynton “Say Nothing” Crosby has made this clown acceptable to half of London. Add in the national swing and he’s unstoppable.”
I think that last point is particularly insightful. In London, Labour completely underestimated Boris. In fact, many of us did - I know I thought of his candidacy as a bit of a joke before he started racking up massive poll leads. But Labour’s failure to take his threat seriously may well have cost them London.
It’s remarkable to think just how much things have changed in a relatively short time. Less than a year ago, Gordon Brown was triumphant and looking to win an early election with another decent majority; now he’s led Labour to utter disaster. And if you’d told someone back in 2004 or so that Boris Johnson is probably going to be the next Mayor of London, they’d have thought you mad. Yet here we are - now, it would take a miracle for Boris to fail to win it. In fact, expectations have changed so much that if Ken were to somehow achieve that miracle and hold on, Boris would be savaged by the media for failing to win against an unpopular, scandal-ridden mayor in the most anti-Labour national climate in decades.
Also: I think the result of the Crewe & Nantwich by-election must now be something of a foregone conclusion…
474 But what about the liberal democrats winning seats n Hull and Newcastle? Sheffield Central looks pretty winnable for Liberal Democrats too.
465 Nick Let’s call it £30 as it’s a good cause and knowing you’re helping others will take some of the sting out of these results.
Also well done for working to stop the Nazis.
I am deliriously happy today - now I know what it must have felt like to be a Labour supporter in 1995-97 - I’m not looking forward to the inevitable eventual disappointment in 15 years but I can live with it.
ALL PBers who doubted Boris should also pay a fine to:
Helen & Douglas House, 14A Magdalen Road, Oxford, OX4 1RW
Very foolish of PaddyPower, as Andrew Neil said today, “Dewey Defeats Truman”.
What an exciting two days for pbers!
OT - OREGON PRIMARY
Ballots are going out in the mail today; note that all elections in Oregon are vote-by-mail.
In addition to the presidential race, there are plenty of statewide and local primary races on the Beaver State ballot.
Including a very intersting race for the Democratic US Senate nomination; the winner will run against incumbnet GOP Senator Gordon Smith in November.
The two leading candidates for the Dem US Sen nomination appear to be state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Portland lawyer Steve Novick.
Note that Novick is 1) less than 5 feet tall, and 2) has a hook instead of a hand on one arm. And he is running a very intersting campaign as anti-establishment, not-your-average-politico candidate
Check out his campaign website & TV commericals via this link:
http://www.votehook.com
423. There’s a good reason the BNP wouldn’t stand in Ealing. Walk down Uxbridge Road and count the white faces. In a 10 min. walk you’d be lucky to use both hands! And they’re probably Polish. We used to be known as the ‘Queen of the Suburbs’, ‘The Greenest Borough in London’. Not any more after 10 years of you lot. Good riddance!