The election thread continued….
May 2nd, 2008
Picture: a Jeremy Vine stunt from the BBC’s so-called coverage
The story is illustrated with one of the stupid gimmicks that the BBC used overnight to masquerade the fact that their election coverage has been abysmal.
What we saw was Jeremy Vine going into a bar in the Wild West and “shooting” at cans which then produced number showings how the Lib Dem did at previous elections. Eh?
How the BBC must despise us by substituting this for a proper results service and good analysis…and we pay a licence fee for this rubbish!
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Spreadfair 334-342 = midpoint 338 up 12 since last night.
SPIN still no price, will phone.
It could be worse.
…..
Presumably.
They did have Clemency Burton-Hill on. *sighs*
Anyway, there’s a large discrepancy between BBC and Sky News councillor figures. Any chance they’ll agree on a definitive result, or will we have people cherrypicking the stats that suit them best?
459 of last thread in response to Clegg hitting the Tories -
But it represents the reality of the Lib Dem position. They fight Tories in general elections, not Labour. A tsunami of Tory votes in the next general election will drown the Liberal Democrats back to 1992 levels of support.
The most satisfying thing for Clegg is they seem to have held their ground. But that doesn’t alter the basic electoral fact that they hold most of their seats from the Tories. Unless you really think they can win against Labour in Liverpool and Sheffield in 2010. I don’t.
So Clegg attacking the Tories is doing the only thing he realistically can. It’s not rocket science, just psephology
I’m due Mark Senior £20 - I only overestimated labour by 4%
Why is Vine doing that? Please tell me it wasn’t a long stunt.
My last results had the council wrong…DOH!…
Whoops, got the councils wrong…
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +243
LAB -9 -364
LIB +0 +40
OTH +1 +81
(Includes Cherwell Result [CON HOLD])
+243 - Amazing night for the Tories
Vine seemed to be unsure of his script. But considering what rubbish it was perhaps he was in a state of denial.
While I was writing this long post, the thread changed, so I’ve re-posted it here:
Just read a rather fun article from a despairing Labour supporter on CiF here: http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jonathan_myerson/2008/05/we_are_really_in_trouble.html
Excerpts:
“Yes, I sympathise with all those Labour councillors who have worked hard and diligently run their councils only to now find themselves looking for a new hobby. But sympathy is valueless in this game. As a party, we are really in trouble. When we lose Bury to the Tories, it’s time to… it’s time to… well, that’s the problem, isn’t it? What can Labour do now? Another relaunch? You start to look like Madonna. A new raft of policy proposals? The cupboard is bare, we’ve given all we’ve got. A massive tax giveaway? He tried that with his last budget and look what happened.
The trouble is, when you hit this low, people aren’t going to believe any of it.”
And:
“When you lose four seats to the Socialist People’s party of Furness, you really know you’re in trouble. No, when you lose to Boris Johnson, you’re really in trouble. When Cameron announced the Blond Oaf’s candidacy all those months ago, we laughed. We thought this is ridiculous. OK, the Tories want to have some fun, make a splash but they know they can’t win. But a combination of Veronica “Goebbels Knew Nothing” Wadley and Lynton “Say Nothing” Crosby has made this clown acceptable to half of London. Add in the national swing and he’s unstoppable.”
I think that last point is particularly insightful. In London, Labour completely underestimated Boris. In fact, many of us did - I know I thought of his candidacy as a bit of a joke before he started racking up massive poll leads. But Labour’s failure to take his threat seriously may well have cost them London.
It’s remarkable to think just how much things have changed in a relatively short time. Less than a year ago, Gordon Brown was triumphant and looking to win an early election with another decent majority; now he’s led Labour to utter disaster. And if you’d told someone back in 2004 or so that Boris Johnson is probably going to be the next Mayor of London, they’d have thought you mad. Yet here we are - now, it would take a miracle for Boris to fail to win it. In fact, expectations have changed so much that if Ken were to somehow achieve that miracle and hold on, Boris would be savaged by the media for failing to win against an unpopular, scandal-ridden mayor in the most anti-Labour national climate in decades.
Also: I think the result of the Crewe & Nantwich by-election must now be something of a foregone conclusion.
Was that really the BBC’s coverage last night? Looks like CBBC
Maybe because Labour did badly the Beeb have decided to trivialise politics so it ultimately becomes irrelevant
5 - Felt like it went on forever. Honestly, the BBC gimmicks reached new lows last night. Personally I thought Ken The Menace biffing Desperate Dobbo was even worse than a stetson-clad Vine.
Yes Jeremey Vine was truely cringe worthy. He must have done that Cowboy thing along with terrible accent three times over the evening. It was almost as bad as the “Ming with the Bling” he did last year.
5 cuddles. It lasted five looooooooooooooong minutes !!!!!
5 - Oh it was cringe making, replete with a Texan accent reminiscent of the Sheriff from the Cannonball Run.
5 - A good few minutes, but it felt more like 20. Complete with faux-wild-west accent from Vine. You’d think they’d have learned after this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSZbvnVfqfE
I didn’t see that part but I saw the ascent of man (tory) piece and the stalin to Mr Bean bit. Watched for about half an hour and turned off. Absolutely dreadful broadcasting. For the first time in my life I am tempted to write and complain.
BBC Complaints,
PO Box 1922,
Glasgow G2 3WT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/
3 - switching to an assault on Labour, as an attempt to dislodge them as the “party of the left,” might result in short-term pain at the next election but would seem to be their best long-term strategy.
By the way, even the BBC’s website are calling last night’s result ‘truly dire for Gordon Brown’. Difficult to see how you could spin it any other way…
Re the BBC Coverage - shocking. Simply shocking looking at the pic above. Given the amount and quality of incisive analytics and quick reporting on here surely we can put forward / create an alternative in some way… please…
12, I concur that Ming the Bling was bad.
There seems to be a modern day conspiracy to stop treating people like grown ups. I’m not watching an election prog at 1am because I’m a curious 7 year old, for god’s sake. And even if I were I’d be disappointed with the puerile efforts on display.
We’d be better off having election night chaired by Jet from Gladiators. At least it’d keep me interested:p
CALLING Mr PALMER
previous thread 465 Nick Let’s call it £30 as it’s a good cause and knowing you’re helping others will take some of the sting out of these results.
Also well done for working to stop the Nazis.
I am deliriously happy today - now I know what it must have felt like to be a Labour supporter in 1995-97 - I’m not looking forward to the inevitable eventual disappointment in 15 years but I can live with it.
ALL PBers who doubted Boris should also pay a fine to:
Helen & Douglas House, 14A Magdalen Road, Oxford, OX4 1RW
3 I also replied on the last thread but in short Lib Dems could win seats from Labour in Newcastle and Hull. Sheffield Central looks a good prospect. And Chris Rennard has a plan for Liverpool I believe (hardest place to win in my view).
Mr Smithson, sir (tugs forelock respectfully before venerable political betting genius) - a couple of days ago you forebore to pass comment on how you were going to be viewing Nick Clegg’s performance in these elections. Given the graphic above (and quite how intriguingly ominous/enigmatic you made it sound at the time), would this be an appropriate time to ask you to return to that subject?
20. or enigma (keep up to date old chap)
Did anyone see the interview with the Zimbabwean minister on the BBC? The guy was gloating about UK local elections saying Brown has no right to comment on elections considering his results…hehe
16 - The problem is that the BBC seems to be staffed by a squillion under-paid meedya wannabes. They should cut their staff in half and pay 30% more. You get the distinct impression that last night was the result of a massive room of 22-year-olds brainstorming while mainlining Ribena.
Look at the budgets of Sky News and BBC News and tell me the Beeb give value for money.
4 Mark Senior owes me a tenner which if he reads this he can send here:
Helen & Douglas House, 14A Magdalen Road, Oxford, OX4 1RW
3,17. LDs are not up against Lab in that many marginal seats, and are not ideologically all that different either.
So this strategy would be rather odd.
Tories leading Labour in Enfield & Haringey GLA seat (marginally Lab held in 2004) according to local paper after 38% counted.
Re the BBC; well said Mike! Absolutely agree, the BBC coverage was a discrase; they were also miles behind the results compared to Sky (who incidently did not patronise their viewers al la Jermey Vine!).
Think this has already been posted, but just incase….
BBC Results: CON +240, LAB -297, LIB +27
(150 out of 159 councils declared)
And just for reminders…
SKY Results: CON +243, LAB -364, LIB +40, OTH +81
SPIN prices up tonight, IG this sunday zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Betfair still odds against a Con maj at 2.06. I think SF has it right. Should be odds on.
24, Jet was an integral part of my childhood. I don’t know who this Enigma is (presumably a new gladiator) but she’ll have to go some to replace the fine memory of Jet in my affections.
26, like the NHS or education the BBC is a classic example of money not being the limiting factor to performance. What they need are a few grown ups to stand up and say “Messing about with stupid graphics is no replacement for swift reporting of results and incisive analysis.”
The basic errors in the coverage are terrible.
“The Conservatives now control 62 councils across the UK”
O RLY?
The BBC’s coverage was dire. I know relatively little about politics so I like having graphs and tables to help me get a sense of what’s happening, but the BBC failed to use their graphics effectively last night.
What was most frustrating is each of Vine’s ‘gimmicks’ were so intricate that he had to repeatedly waste time explaining the ‘Wild West’ concept or the ‘Stalin to Bean’ concept to the audience, rather than going into detail on the results. It was pathetic (although I disagree with previous comments about a Labour-bias, which I didn’t notice last night).
I felt sorry for Professor Anthony King, a guy who obviously knows his stuff and occasionally came out with something insightful…then Vine pops up with his stupid graphics. Sigh.
I can sort of understand that kind of gimmickry at 10:15pm on a General Election night when there’s nothing to report. At 1am on a local election night when the party of government is being decimated? No need, Jeremy, no need. The only people watching are the obsessives, we don’t need this kind of stuff. It’s sad that the supposedly dumbed down, lowest common denominator networks in America credit their viewers with greater intelligence than the BBC do on election nights.
Just think of the unalloyed joy, the side-splitting laughter, the shrieks of delight, the tears of merriment cascading down - Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Mrs Cherie Blair!
Aren’t the local election output on BBC always a bit less serious than the GE output?
22 - I’ll be interested in seeing any information suggesting that the Lib Dems can make that progress to go with their council gains. I’ve not written anything about politics in Northern England for a few years but last time I looked at the figures there they seemed totally unrelated to council results.
But Lord Rennard does need to switch his targets from Tory to Labour. Whether Clegg will be given the time to complete a realignment if he loses 10/15 seats in 2010 is another matter.
Any Lib Dem result at the next GE where they lose less than 10 seats would be a great result if the Tories win an overall majority. Whether enough people realise that for the narrative not to be against the Lib Dems is another matter.
The fact that people like Thrasher are writing these results as a Lib Dem negative when I think it is astonishing you stayed at 1/4 of the vote suggests not.
I think the Conservatives will be frightened of doing anything about the BBC so they will go for the default position of the status quo.
They should say this is not a matter for politicians - it’s a British “institution” and the people should decide - ie have a referendum. Referendum to decide if licence fee compulsory or not.
If you want it - pay for it. If you don’t, you don’t get it. This would be feasible from 2012 after digital switchover.
The BBC love telling us how marvellous they are - if so everyone will happily pay for it.
Added bonus - a complete end to the waste of Court time on prosecutions for non-payment.
23. net gains is way above expectations so Clegg shares will bounce. Victory on home turf will help him as well. UNless there were sitting LD MP’s with dire results in there area then he was going to be OK and I can’t see any disasters so far.
When things settled down thinking LD’s will ask why they have not shred more in anti labour spoils but the bottom line is a net gain of seats is better than expected and so Clegg is secure. No leadership mutterings.
9 Oddly I think this post gives Labour the only crumb of comfort that can be found in yesterday’s disaster. It notes how rapidly things can change in politics. What goes up can come down again very quickly. It is (just) possible to imagine a scenario in which Brown falls on his sword or is deposed in an efficient and relatively bloodless way, repalced by a younger, more optimistic leader .. how different things might look ..
33. check this out for the new gladiator batch > http://tinyurl.com/5dyp2z
I met Jet in Leeds once. she is quite short, but still very pretty!
Come on William Hill (and the others) and follow the PP lead and pay out. Would be nice to get my hands on the wedge at the start of the weekend.
CON hold Epping Forest. The “Patriots” lose two councillors. w00t!
40
Well I disagree. I think the Conservatives would do politics, teh BBC and the voters a favour by forcing the BBC to slim down and cut the licnce fee by 15%.
There are lots of areas obvious to me as a viewer - multiple foreign correspondents covering US elections for exampe - where a small headoucnt reduction will save millions.. And then there are the digital channels to sell. And local TV.. and…
Oh my god, worse than the Ming Bling Thing? That was bad enough!
I think the Lib Dem results will need some analysis before they are judged to be good or ill.
True they have held steady in terms of councils and seats. But this is against a very poor unpopular government. In the event that the Tories can move on from this and bring out some more detailed stuff nearer an election, how well positioned are they?
If the impression I got from Thrasher is correct, their national vote share projections are worse than under Ming.
Furthermore, of all the parties, they need the mid term local election momentum more than the others.
It seems as if ‘the others’ are increasing their hold on local and national politics and whilst that once repreented a vote for the LibDems, now the voters have a wider choice.
Figures from RCT and Newport will push Labour well over the 300 losses mark when the BBC add them. Even Auntie will have this as an ‘off-the-scale’ Labour defeat.
LDs gain +24 - not great..
And I we Americans had awful election night coverage!
45 - Or as Jack W called them, the Pratriots
Conservatives miss out in Harrogate:
Con 27 (+2)
Lib Dem 21 (-2)
Other 6 (nc)
Re the BBC I think the key bias point was that they dumbed the whole thing down to try and make Labour’s disaster less werious..treat all like a bit of a joke so it wouldnt feel so bad…the look on George Osbourne’s face when they returned from one of teh sketches was priceless..it was utter bewliderement (some may say it looks bewildered much of the time anyway
43, I’m rather jealous.
(BBC kicking continued).. the low point for me was watching a real live reporter at the count in Colchester simply not understanding what was going on behind him and bullsh*tting away like mad - (his appearance with a supporting production cast of no doubt several dozen no doubt costing even more than the silver bullets in JVine’s smoking gun
)
What an exciting two days for pbers!
OT - OREGON PRIMARY
Ballots are going out in the mail today; note that all elections in Oregon are vote-by-mail.
In addition to the presidential race, there are plenty of statewide and local primary races on the Beaver State ballot.
Including a very intersting race for the Democratic US Senate nomination; the winner will run against incumbnet GOP Senator Gordon Smith in November.
The two leading candidates for the Dem US Sen nomination appear to be state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Portland lawyer Steve Novick.
Note that Novick is 1) less than 5 feet tall, and 2) has a hook instead of a hand on one arm. And he is running a very intersting campaign as anti-establishment, not-your-average-politico candidate
Check out his campaign website & TV commericals via this link:
http://www.votehook.com
9. Great post[except the last bit. Keep a lid on it old chap].
Looking forward to tomorrow’s Grauniad and Indie.
where is the link to the vine cowboy clip on youtube?
50 - To Labour (sic) my tsunami analogy. I think the Lib Dems need to find a strong tree to hold onto when the Tory wave comes. If they can stay lodged the same point they can reach inland the next time the Tory tide goes out.
Meanwhile the Labour beaches can be approached in 2010 so that in the next election they can attack both the other parties to get nearer the point they force the hung parliament that can deliver them the holy grail of electoral reform.
49 Its a bit like last year when the Con gains and Labour losses kept mounting throughout the Friday - making the BBC which had accepted Labour’s spin the night before look foolish. How much expectations have changed today can be matched against this from the Guardian
“It was, as expected, a bad night for the Labour party. By this morning it appeared the party can expect to lose over 200 seats when all the results are in later today. The total might exceed 250.”
Might exceed 250
58. Will be Brown in the Brown.
“I felt sorry for Professor Anthony King, a guy who obviously knows his stuff ” i think that must be a different professor Anthony King….
I see Betfair has topped the million pound mark with traded bets on the mayor. Not bad.
The BBC are always crap at big set piece events like this. They panic that they have to justify their monstrous subsidy from the taxpayer at these times, so they splurge money on it, with a complete absence of thought or taste.
Wimbledon coverage would be hugely improved too by anyone-but-the-BBC getting the broadcast rights.
52. The Tories didn’t miss out in Harrogate.
There were not enought seats up for grabs to take it. They won EVERY seat fought this time, gaining two and taking one off the LibDems which now has about a 750 majority!
No, Sally (48), that does not make much sense, does it?
If you wish to maintain that the Lib Dems have increased the number of councillors and councils that they hold ONLY because of the unpopularity of the Labour Government, then surely this must also hold true in the case of the Tories - and perhaps even more so.
What I found yesterday was that many voters were making anti-Labour comments, but nobody pro-Tory ones.
So perhaps you may be right - but this would apply to the Tory advance as well.
27- very good cause Kingbongo. Know it well.
Nice veggie cafe on the same road
64- they need to give you some commission Mike- I guess this site generates 30-40% of their political business. They make 15k on 1 million- margins of 30%- I guess your shout should be about 1.5k
Times - Tories claim victory for Boris:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3862552.ece
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +265
LAB -9 -381
LIB +0 +35
OTH +0 +81
(Includes Cheshire West Result [CON GAIN])
BBC Results: CON +243, LAB -297, LIB +24
(152 out of 159 councils declared)
Why did the BBC coverage finish circa four o’clock? I couldn’t face hours of waffle before the results came in so I went to bed early and got up just after 4 am to watch results. All I could get on the BBC was the World News although the Radio Times said the coverage would continue until 6 am. Was it pulled early because the coverage was so dreadful?.
Also, did the BBC realise that it had dumbed down too much because last year Jeremy Vine’s ghastly Ming’s Bling was shown on “Breakfast News” but this year “Breakfast News” was mercifully Jeremy Vine and graphics free?.
i
The Guardian (!!!) is tipping BoJo to win http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/02/london08.london
We are getting very close to the 400 loss mark for Labour on Sky, which is my marker as they seem to know what they are doing.
As a firm supporter of the Beeb and its ethos of public service broadcasting and the licence fee it saddens me to say that the coverage last night was in the most part piss poor !!!
It was like amateur night at ElectionLite4U !!!
Anthony King was a shadow of himself, indeed a deathly palour seem to seep from his presence. Vine was by turn shambolic, inaccurate and embarrassing ….. cowboy was about right !!
The only glimmer was the the blog spots but they were used infrequently and with little interface to the studio. The results service was mediocre that in light of the resources available to the Beeb must be seen as a dismal failure.
Must do vastly, vastly better !!
Boulton: ” Lab result beyond worst fears”
Ealing & Hill - 48% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
West Central - 42% counted, Boris about 60% Ken about 30%
South West - 44% counted, Boris about 50% Ken abotu 35%
Lambeth & Southwark - 46% counted, Boris about 30% Ken about 50%
Croydon & Sutton - 43% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 30%
Merton & Wandsworth - 40% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
(from conhome chat)!
67, obviously vote switching can either be rejection of the former (a protest vote) embracing the latter, or a combination of the two as is frequently the case.
The Labour Party has suffered quite a rejection at the polls, and from a very low base.
So, where did the voters go to?
Split between Lib Dems and Tories, with the Tories getting the lion’s share.
Further, the Conservatives made gains from the Lib Dems, though it looks like Clegg’s made a moderate net gain of councillors overall.
So, voters are rejecting Labour, and generally turning to the Tories with a sight net benefit to the Lib Dems.
Decent performance for the Lib Dems, but Calamity’s assertion that they’re the only national opposition undermines a solidish result with blatantly overegging the cake.
OT - OBAMA’S TOP TEN CAMPAIGN PROMISES
(from his appearence last night on the David Letterman Show) - pber should esp. appreciate #9; had to change the spelling of one word to make it past the pb filter!)
10. To keep the budget balanced, I’ll rent the situation room for sweet sixteens.
9. I will double your tax money at the crapz table.
8. Appoint Mitt Romney secretary of lookin’ good.
7. If you bring a gator to the White House, I’ll wrassle it.
6. I’ll put Regis [Philbin] on the nickel.
5. I’ll rename the tenth month of the year “Barack-tober.”
4. I won’t let Apple release the new and improved Ipod the day after you bought the previous model.
3. I’ll find money in the budget to buy Letterman a decent hairpiece.
2. Pronounce the word nuclear, nuclear.
1. Three words: Vice President Oprah.
I’m a newbie and a bit dense. Can somebody explain why BBC has:
Con +243
Lab -297
LD +24
while Sky has:
Con +265
Lab -381
LD +35
?
69. The Tories have increased their base to massively levels, beyond even the spinners expectations despits massive year on year increases. The Lib dems have failed to make any notable inroads. The may have met the spinners expectations, but that was because they were forcasting a significant retreat.
Anyway, as Clegg says, we will number crunch when the dust has settled. But my feeling is that when it has, there will be some numbers he would rather have left obscured.
The feelings of Lib Demmers today are coloured by their expectations of disaster.
Adam Bolton: “Boris clearly ahead in 8 seats, narrowly ahead in 1 (Enfield),”
Boulton - still not counted 50% of 1st prefs.
Boris well ahead in 8 constituencies
Boris narrowly ahead in 1 constituency
Ken ahead in 4 to 5 constituencies
(Total = 14 so maybe one is wavering between even and Ken)
80 His number 4 pledge had better be for real - and across the whole Apple portfolio!
Former MP Ron Davies elected to Caerphilly council
85 Nice, Whiter than white………..
42. Yes you’re right insofar as an 18% swing (ie the difference between Labour’s share in YouGov in September and the Tory share last night) cannot be deep - you just can’t have such a substantial bloc of voters (some 11 million, or thereabouts) switching allegiances in such a short time and, at the same time, having absolute certainty that their change is irrevocable. Some will, sure, but nowhere near a majority of that huge number.
The challenge for Labour in the next few months is whether it can stop that wide but shallow swing cementing, if that’s not mixing metaphors!
85 Jack W has freed you!
most of the BBC should have been forcibly moved to Salford, as was planned. that would have cut costs considerably, but somehow they managed to fabricate enough wildly exaggerated “costs to the license payer” - purely because most BBC workers live entirely in their little west london bubble and would squirm at the thought of having to even speak to northerners.
Beeb saying that Tories think that Boris has a chance of winning on 1st preferences !!
Brown to announce the Queen speech in advance again, why not just announce the announcement of the announcemnt of the Queens speech, in an announcement to the press.
90 - Amazing if it happens
71. Labour getting towards -400 on Sky. Utterly amazing. This has gone beyond a meltdown!!!!!!!!!!!! I don’t think theres really a word to describe the extent of these losses? 300 was the absolute upper limit where Labour would have had a catastrophe….
Re. BBC coverage. Those of us that sat thrugh Jermey Vines pieces should be gratful that we’ve witnessed one of the all time car crash TV moments!
At current rate they will be lucky to count 1st prefs by midnight.
90 - Ooh I have a free lunch riding on that!
85 - a great day for badger watchers everywhere…
91, oooh. That will reinvigorate Labour.
Is he going to reannounce the palstic bag helpline too?
90- Not eveb YouGov was predicting that! Anyway its easy to get ahead of ourselfs…everybody calm…;)
88 Ted. Embrace Jack’s ARSE …. it’s free for all … or is that a free for all !!
Strangely, very little excitement over the London mayoral election on the streets. Of Seattle, that is.
Except for your’s truly, that is - am all agog! Must calm myself with a soothing latte, and perhaps sample a little Danish . . . if she’ll allow the liberty, that is . . .
Just spent a very pleasant day in Henley. It will be even pleasanter when it has a LD MP.
Tell me, please, Bozza will stand down now, won’t he? Not much point in hanging around for 2 years, by which time he will be half way through his mayoralty.
I know Livingstone did not stand down, but at least he was an MP for somewhere in London.
How will Boris find the time to do the work to justify his Westminster salary now? A lot of political capital will be made out of it if he does not stand down very soon. Go now - move writ Tuesday.
Labour government people like Y Cooper seem to be saying that Labour have done the right thing and all they have to do is do more of the same. Now where have we heard that before?
As Mandelson recommended: back to basics.
100 - Remember the Danes are Vikings. You might want to be careful
Fantastic results for the Tories in Wakefield… only a 37-vote Labour majority in Wakefield North, the Tories winning Pontefract North, and Ossett… Labour only holding on to the council with a majority of one!!! Amazing! I’d never have dared hope for such a great result.
101. Watch out for Bozza Snr!
85. He’ll have to watch badgers a little more Caerphilly now (ouch!)
101. were you campaigning?
So when people were making their “Oh if we lose more that 200 seats its really bad” statements, which figures were they using? I.e should we assume its the BBC results so its really really bad, or the SKY results so its really really really bad?
Labour to hold Rhondda Cynon Taff from their website
Lab -12
PC +7
LDem +2
Ind +2
Con +1
81 - don’t you mean that Tory vote has risen way above their base? Though the base itself may indeed be growing.
97 - worth reading the latest from the Mole -
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,left-will-demand-change-after-labour-loses-300-plus-seats,28188
suspect it’s not just the 42 day internment that’s dead in the water now. Will Brown be able to get *any* legislation through?
85-Badgers beware!!!
101 Seriously Bamboozling Self.
107 - No, teaching maths.
93. How about vapourisation?
99 I’ve given up on older men
For any potential Max Moseley’s who want to suffer and missed the BBC show - the Beeb is so proud of their production that highlights are available on
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7375250.stm
I’m hearing that Ploddick is strugling very badly and may not poll much more than 10% !!
Apologies if already posted but BBC24 4pm news mentioning rumours that a possibility Boris will win on first preferences..also Hilary Benn on..actually doesn’t inspire the same degree of loathing as most Labour’s slimy cabinet. Also said expecting result at 8.30pm.
103 - You make a good point. But in these parts the Danes are far outnumbered by the Norwegians, who keep their uppity cousins well in check, thanks not only to greater numbers but superior angst.
102- Are you saying Gordon Brown is going to have an afair with Jacqui Smith?
Money buyers in on Betfair now.
All over bar the shouting.
109 - A relief for Labour if that’s confirmed. I posted I had heard they held it earlier but not seen figures yet. But that result added to the Beeb figures takes Labour over 300 losses even on their figures.
Anyone got Newport yet?
114. Is that a lib dem euphemism for campaigning?
London Elects : 2.4 million Londoners voted.
O\T
CLINTON ON INTRADE
…is at 25, http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134
So guess what will happen after her victory in Indiana next tuesday?
And after all the pundits will agree that she will IN Kentuky and be quite competitive in Oregon?
it will grow up to 30…
Newport from their website:
Lab 18
Con 11
Ldem 6
PC 1
Ind 1
with 6 seats undeclared and another 7 being recounted. lab need to win 8 of these 13 to retain control.
Boris - 1.05
Ken - 18
imminent result announcement?
99- JackW- if your ARSE calls this anywhere near the money it’ll will shake up the polling world. Seriously.
BTW- I put 300 notes straight on betfair last night at 1.2’s such was my confidence in your ARSE. Hedged a bit today, but am going to come out of this very nicely indeed. Will make up for Ken going. Much appreciated JackW.
By the way this song is how i feel about brown right now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eXw47qb4U0&feature=related
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +267
LAB -9 -381
LIB +0 +32
OTH +0 +82
(New Result: Harrogate [NOC HOLD])
BBC Results: CON +243, LAB -297, LIB +24
(152 out of 159 councils declared)
This counting is disgracefully slow. Why is it slower than a GE?
75
I can understand the need for so called public service broadcasting 50 years ago when there was nothing else,now seems that they are using the ‘public service’ in the same sense as the NHS which is absurd.
Let the BBC become a subscription channel then the consumer can choose whether they want it or not instead of being forced to pay for it.
With their current guaranteed public funding they can put any old crap on as we saw last night.
130 Tyson. Jack W’s ARSE is but a tool for the use of grateful PBers worldwide !!
Adam Bolton: “Might not know the result until after 11pm”
ARRGHHHH!!!!!
You may think that Jeremy Vine is a plonker, I could not possibly comment
113- some Labour (norwich) MP on 5 live earlier saying that Brown has until the conference- no change by then, he will be removed.
Open warfare in the Labour party. The parliamentary party know that they have a lame turkey PM who cannot turn this around.
Looking at the ward results in Newport Labour need the recounts to go their way overwhelmingly are they are fooked.
What kind of computerised counting machines are they using??!
ConHome claims following would lose their seats on (very unlikely, pigs might fly) repeat of last night in a GE
Ed Balls, Jacqui Smith, James Purnell, John Hutton, Caroline Flint, Ruth Kelly, John Denham
Yes perhaps to the rest but Ed Balls? Morris Dancer would combust with joy, bells & hankies flying if that were so.
(source conhome) incomplete but…
* Ealing & Hill - 48% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
* West Central - 42% counted, Boris about 60% Ken about 30%
* South West - 44% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
* Lambeth & Southwark - 46% counted, Boris about 30% Ken about 50%
* Croydon & Sutton - 43% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 30%
* Merton & Wandsworth - 40% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
A rough application to the GLA figures would give Con 13, Lab 5, LD 4, Gr 2 and BNP 1
94 Only if you’ve not been listening ! (Sorry to gloat !)
Per post on ConHome - swing is 12.5% from Ken to Boris.
PC Paddick is on Sky news, hopefully he will now reveal who he voted for as a second preference, as he said he would.
142 - If Con take the Mayoralty and a majority on the GLA, it would be a brilliant election overall!
11pm??? What is this? Zimbabwe????
133 - The election is more complicated than a GE due to multi-member wards. Turnout in Wales has been reported as very high. Combine these factors and you get a slow count.
140 Rob D- Mugabe was kind enough to lend them to us.
148 - Was talking about mayor vote!
119 Confirmed for certain in the burb’s JW
If you counted the GLA results manually, it’d probably take three days.
149 - Hey Tyson!
Ah the ones that add up 1 + 1 to equal 40.. how generous of him!!
138 - “some Labour (norwich) MP on 5 live earlier saying that Brown has until the conference- no change by then, he will be removed.”
Has Charles Clarke had a liquid lunch? I would have thought it was too early for him but then again…
150 - Well not starting until 9am and the fact that the election is still more complicated than a GE (separating all the tripled up ballots will take ages) ergo slow count.
153 - It was Gibson not Clarke.
153 - I’m pretty sure that was Ian Gibson.
Songs of the Candidates, Voters & PBers
LONDON PRIDE
This classic was written by Noel Coward in the midst of the Blitz. Personally first heard it just after the London bus bombing, when Scott Simon of NPR played it on his great Saturday morning show, as his tribute to the great city and its great people.
So however you voted, and whomever you voted for, this one’s for you.
LONDON PRIDE
Noel Coward
London Pride has been handed down to us
London Pride is a flower that’s free
London Pride means our own dear town to us
And our pride is forever will be
Whoa, Liza, see the coster barrows
The vegetables and the fruit piled high
Oh, Liza, little London sparrows
Covent Garden Market where the costers cry
Cockney feet mark the beat of history
Every street pins a memory down
Nothing ever can quite replace
The grace of London Town
There’s a little city flower
Ever spring unveiling
Growing in the crevices
By some London railing
Though it has a Latin name
In town and countryside
We in England call it London Pride
London Pride has been handed down to us
London Pride is a flower that’s free
London Pride means our own dear town to us
And our pride it forever will be
Hey, lady, when the day is dawning
See the policeman yawning
On his lonely beat
Gay lady, Mayfair in the morning
Hear your footsteps echo
In the empty street
Early rain, and the pavement’s glistening
All Park Lane in a shimmering gown
Nothing ever could break or harm
The charm of London Town
In our city, darkened now,
Street and square and crescent
We can feel our living past
In our shadowed present
Ghosts beside our starlit Thames
Who lived and loved and died
Keep throughout the ages London Pride
London Pride has been handed down to us
London Pride is a flower that’s free
London Pride means our own dear town to us
And our pride it forever will be
Grey city, stubbornly implanted
Taken so for granted for a thousand years
Stay, city, smokily enchanted
Cradle of our memories, of our hopes and fears
Every blitz, your resistance toughening
From the Ritz to the Anchor and Crown
Nothing ever could override
The pride of London Town
135- are you going to get your ARSE down to Crewe? Andrea needs to see some proper culture
IF Boris does win on first preferences, it wont be lelande de pomerol tonight, itll be my only bottle of serious quality Margaux.
What a kick in the teth that would be for Ken and Gordon. I can imagine what Ken will be saying about the Dear Leader….
£10400 for BoJO at 1.02!
Where is Mark Senior?
Based on the Wilmslow Parish Women’s knitting circle tea lady byelections he was forecasting massive LabDem gains and poor Conservative results in London..as was his his Labdem chum Frottage or whatever his name is…
I trust this will be the last we here of irrelevant local parish byelections as guides to the National position.
If those results from CH are correct then it does look very close on Boris to win on first prefs alone. Big squeeze on the smaller parties vote since last time too. Very little reduction on Ken’s first prefs since 2004 - 50% in L&S has Ken’s vote actually up there on last time.
I’ve got money on the second preferences market - does anyone know if second prefs are even counted if it’s more than 50% on the first round?
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +278
LAB -9 -382
LIB +0 +31
OTH +0 +73
(New Result: Denbighshire [NOC HOLD])
BBC Results: CON +243, LAB -297, LIB +24
(152 out of 159 councils declared)
162 - One would assume that they are counted simultaneously.
They should release them no matter what the outcome
63. Anthony King’s incisive analysis usually consists of something along the lines of -
Dimbleby : Tony, how serious would you say this is for Labour?
King : Oh, David, this is VERY serious.
The obvious step would be to replace him with John Curtice. As for Nick Robinson, the obvious step would be to replace him with just anybody, and allow him to find his spirtual home at a tabloid newspaper.
It may not be terribly important, but the thing that really leapt out at me last night was how small the set looked, even by normal BBC standards.
I know some people have been hankering after the style of coverage the American networks provide. I wouldn’t normally follow it too closely, but I have this year mainly because it suddenly dawned on me that my dual nationality entitled me to a vote! My principal observation would be that Britain definitely does not need a Wolf Blitzer. He’s even more of a broken record than Anthony King - “let me explain to our viewers…Campbell Brown is standing by for us…we’re watching this VERY closely”
157. I like London Pride. I shall have several tonight to celebrate/ drown my sorrows…
We won the Greenford Broadway by-election by 20 votes (having lost by 8 last time) - bit closer than we were expecting. Phew!
Can’t wait for Stalin’s article in the next Eye.
a topic for another day but I thought I’d share the tenor of a CNN discussion from last night here in the u.s. where they were openly discussing the possibility that obama might lose north Carolina ,killing his candidacy. They estimated he was 5% ahead but were talking about a serious fear of ‘white flight’ as a result of the wright affair.
Clinton looks Set to win Indiana.
Beware low flying Champagne corks ……………..
Back to Zone 6 for a right regal proper p**s up
TB
300 losses is beyond Labour’s own internal expectations by some margin.
This may get ugly.
This is the best Tory election since……??????
Radio 5 is still miles behind on the losses and gains.
Sea Shanty Irish. I have a question for you. A request. Do you have any idea what the re-election rate of mayors in major US cities is?
I am rather hoping Bozza gets it on first preferences. If you are gonna lose, lose big.
Get this Bozza winning first preferences. Total losses of 400. I cannot see how Brown can survive. Are we going to see a Kevin Keegan during the summer?
BTW, have there been any significant problems reported with the machines being used to to tabulate the vote in London?
Did see a previous post, that there was a problem with postal votes jamming up the equipment (am guessing because they were folded for mailing).
Reason I ask, is because King County (Seattle) Washington is planning on using the same scanning equipment for tabulating our election ballots, if and when the county adopts all vote-by-mail system next year.
Newport from their website:
Lab 19
Con 14
Ldem 6
PC 1
Ind 1
with 6 seats undeclared and another 3 being recounted. Lab need to win 7 of these 9 to retain control.
158 Tyson. Crewe Andrea ?!?! …. I thought it was Crewe Alexander !! …. or how about being part of Jack W’s Crew …. however I fear her indoors will be after a Jack W Cruise fairly soon. No excuse after todays winnings.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +292
LAB -9 -394
LIB +0 +28
OTH +0 +74
(New Result: Cheshire East [CON HOLD])
BBC Results: CON +243, LAB -297, LIB +24
(152 out of 159 councils declared)
The Guardian mayoralty blog makes hilarious reading, for rightwingers. Entire bendy-busloads of lefties promising to quit the capital is the awful stag-murdering Johnson gets elected.
http://tinyurl.com/5zbbbo
Memo to lefties: please go. Please please please please pleeeeeeeeeze go!
My favourite comment is this: “With every Right Wing election success my faith in humanity takes a hit”.
Oh dear. Oh dear oh dear oh dear. Poor old Guardian readers. Humanity has let them down again.
LOFL.
Turnout up by half a million votes which is fantastic.
It just shows that when 2 political opponents clash who manage to get the electorate engaged then the democratic system still works.
Well done London for turning out.
I was told by a source within the (national) Labour Party that if May 1st was a disaster there would be moves to dump Brown almost at once. Even if 300 loses isn’t considered to be a disaster, even if the good Tory progress especially in the North and in Cities isn’t a disaster, then Boris winning on 1st round would be.
Personally I think Boris won’t get it on first round, but its a great warming thought for a cold afternoon.
Congratulations to Stephan Shakespeare and YouGov.
Julia and MORI - not so much.
168- chrisco- that explains why his price has been drifting! Oh dear all my Bozza wins are going to be lost on Obama
Looking at the wards not counted in Newport I am almost certain that Labour must have lost the council.
if he did win on first prefs, that wouldn’t necessarily be a bigger victory (although it would look a lot more decisive) - it would mostly be an unexpected squeeze on minor candidates. i.e. Ken could score higher than last time but still lose in the first round
I thought the Western on BBC was very funny!
179 funny, Sean T.
I still think we should hold off the Boris celebrations until the result is *officialy* announced!
BBC radio 5 just now: “We hear that Boris Johnson is going to be the next mayor of London”
174 Seriously Tyson, we’ve got clear differences politically but I share your interest on this.
The cycle’s turning/the ship’s sinking.
Major rode it out for 5 years and did us not good whatsoever.
I think Brown’s in that territory now. Problem is, who’s going to step up to the plate and risk their own long term prospects as leader ? You need a ‘caretaker’. Who best fits the role ?
Yesterday was the Labour Party’s “Mayday,Mayday”.
Sadly no one can save them now.
sky Lab minus 394 could they possibly lose 400?
176 - It means that Labour have to GAIN a seat in the remaining wards to keep the council. I should think that HIGHLY unlikely.
189- Somewhat bizzare that if he does become Mayor of London, it all started with one apperance on a satirical pannel show!
Labour have hit 300 losses even on the BBC count! I have no more champagne corks to pop. I’m popped out.
189 Hmmm BBC 5 is on the case. It seems Mafeking has been relieved !
188. I would be surprised if Boris did not win but i agree with your sentiments their! Where i live in kirklees the tories very nearly took some very safe Labour seats! Surprised at some of the other councils in west yorkshire though!
I am normally hugely interested in election night, staying up for results but I started falling asleep at 1 am (have the day off today). I saw that Jeremy Vine thing so I doubt I missed much. I got most of the information from here and the BBC interactive map long before DD got around ‘analyzing’ with his experts.
There was a moment when they broke off to interview some bloggers and one of them made a big point of saying how many people were complaining about him, so it’s not just politicalbetting.
Do they make an effort to make election night so boring?
173 - statistically, don’t have any info.
That said, my impression is that most mayors that run for election tend to win, thanks to the advantages of incumbency. Which includes name recognition, support of political establishment, and the ability to shake down (nicely or not) contractors doing city business.
However, believe the re-elect rate of mayors is less than legislators. Because mayors have to tackle nitty-gritty problems that confront the citizenry very directly, for example potholes in the streets. Which makes it difficult to build up high levels of voter satisfaction.
Hope this is helpful, though I doubt it.
186 - Yes, well you also think that you’re funny.
400. Four hundred. Absolutely unbelievabubble. 400. Four bloody hundred. Streuth.
Ken described by commenter on Graun as ‘wallet molester’. Nice one, whoever you are.
182. YouGov must be the pollster to follow. Result should speak for itself.
177- JackW- at least your better half is not Andrea’s cappucinno of choice.
Off now- promised my better half that I will post a bit less after the locals.
Well done again old timer, and to Andrea- post 95, 9.30 May 1st, go down as one of pbCOM’s all time finest moments.
199 - If he’s using this to make up a book you should have deliberately misled him and then tipped us all off about it on his day off
.
Who many more are left to declare now. Any chance of Labour breaking the 400 mark??
FTSE up 126. Markets like Brown losing!!!!
201. Sorry it’s just over 300 net losses.
CAN I JUST GO TO THE UNITED STATES FOR ONE MOMENT, THIS, IF CORRECT, I REPEAT IF CORRECT MIGHT PLAY BIG OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD UPSET BETTING.
Apparently there is a video on YouTube showing Clinton main advisors, James Carrville is mentioned and George Stephon whatever his name is,slagging off people from Indiana, the words “sh..s”. is alleged. It does not appear to be a fake. judging from the blogs, but being the US who knows.
The blogs say it is being shown on NBC
Also Stepho is apparently inetrviewing Clinton on ABC Monday night!
Our elections are very dull in comparison.
So it appears Boris will win, and YouGov were right. We should therefore follow YouGov’s national polling more closely than, say, MORI’s.
182 Perhaps Julia, from Mori, will be on later with her “observations”!
207 - No its closer to 400, BBC are counting the new Cheshire authorities as gains for Labour, when they aren’t technically
200. I have my moments! Do you not make people laugh?
Look at what Boris Johnson has achieved by being funny - you obviously have no sense of humour!
Hopefully people will stop employing Bob ‘President Kerry’ Worcester. I hope Julia comes to explain MORI’s UNISON polls.
Will Shakespeare and Kellner sue Ken. I really think they should
Cheshire West result very good for the Tories and promising for the Crewe By-election
When will Ken/Labour issue public apologys to YouGob, then?
Labour -395. Nearly there!!!!!
207. Is it? Aren’t Sky saying it’s nearer 400?
Thing is, even if it’s 300 - that’s still 100 worse than the worst-case scenario.
Heh.
I’m surprised the markets are still open for Mayor. Free money!!!
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +290
LAB -9 -395
LIB +0 +32
OTH +0 +73
(New Result: S.Lakeland [LIB HOLD])
BBC Results: CON +243, LAB -297, LIB +24
(152 out of 159 councils declared)
(Although I’m sure my BBC Results are out of date)
210 - I hope so, I find them very informative.
173. I know the re-election rate for congressmen is 98%, if that’s any help.
209. Yes. The national election has backed up YouGov’s national polls as well.
179 I particularly enjoyed this one:
Those who rejoice at the prospect of a Johnson’s victory are either politically illiterate or filthy rich.
of curse the two aren’t mutually exclusive - look at Polly Toynbee
I am going to buy and frame tomorrow’s Grauniad
219 I’m thinking of taking out an emotional hedge on Ken at 666 to 1
One last heave. 400.
Come on Britain. You can do it. Just five more.
I haven’t had this much fun since, er, yesterday when Tom Knox made £100k.
219. Some big movements on those last 7 councils according to the BBC. How much is the licence fee again?
179
All those lefties promising to quit the capital,a win-win for London.
let’s hope it’s
CON +300
LAB -400
by the end of the night
207 - The Sky News figures are more accurate. The work-experience kids at the BBC are screwing up (and still have Labour losing more than 300).
193 yes
St Julians will prob be 3 Ldems
Bettws prob 3 Lab
Rogerstone was 2 Lab, 1 Con so could go all Con this time.
leaving
Lab 22 (-8)
Con 17 (+5)
Ldem 9 (+3)
PC 1
Ind 1
199. No, that’s great. Thanks SSI.
We’ll have some prices up for the London 2012 contest as soon as the result is confirmed. I am stuggling to think of too many plausible Labour candidates, although of course no-one could have picked Boris 4 years ago. I saw someone else on here (was it stodge?) suggesting David Lammy. Looking at current London Labour MPs, Jon Cruddas looks like someone who might fit the bill. Harriet Harman?
207, 211, 217 - I think the Sky calcs are more robust. ~400 looks the right number.
Does anyone have the global totals for the previous Con, Lab & LD seat figures being contested this time round so we could do a proof in total check?
221 - yes. And the US mayoral relection rate is less, which by definition gives plenty of wiggle room!
Anybody know when a price for C & N will become available. Might be tempted to re-invest my BoJo wedge.
208 The video is linked on Drudge, who has never liked the Clintons. This is 1992 footage. Will hardly matter much in this election, I think. Carville is famous for his foul mouth.
Any odds that Boris will turn up for the Mayor of London result on a Routemaster?
Sky are putting Labour at -395 now. With Conservatives +290.
Beware the LD by Election Machine Devon…
223 Why don’t we have a contest to see who can make the most over the top left wing comment on the Guardian blog?
230…
I thought the elections for St Julians and Bettws were postponed due to death of a candidate in each…
Anyone know if there is a Returning Officer-like ceremony for the Mayoral elections, cant wait to watch it if so!
From Iain Dale’s live blog:
4.48 I have just had an email from MORI with a lengthy document on the London elections. I could now say some very unkind things, but you know what a charitable person I am. I don’t wish to intrude on private grief.
390 seats for the Tories according to Sky. 130 majority. If only
Who’s having a drink tonight then???
240 only Ken won’t be returning…
179. I know..I have had great fun winding them up for days under a different handle and begging them to go and take White, Toynbee, Freedman, Milne and that guy who played Baldrick with them. Great larks and couldn’t happen to more slimy self-regarding bunch of preening popinjays.
3. I would say Sheffield Central and Liverpool Wavertree are eminently winnable for them now
Dale: I have just had an email from MORI with a lengthy document on the London elections. I could now say some very unkind things, but you know what a charitable person I am. I don’t wish to intrude on private grief.
The bitterness and rage from the leftie bloggers at the Guardian partly explains what is going wrong for Labour. Labour have lost touch with reality. Lost touch with the electorate and they are simply having a conversation with themselves. They are inward looking and appear completely unable to reach out. Labour is finished. Its just a matter of whether they can limit the damage at the next election, or whether the Tories get a three didgit landslide.
245 - just read, wonder what it said!
The last thing Skys Election analyst said before their election show ended at about 4am was something along the lines on “Labour are looking at a 300 seat loss!”
242. That’s very decent of you Benny …. large single malt please !!
242 Ken will be, I’m sure.
239 -
183 - Tyson, don’t panic, the only way that Clinton could win is by destroying her party and the bigwigs are already lining up to escort her out of the building to stop her doing that.
Basically, she’s not going to win the PV or the most delegates. She has been toast for months and all except a slavering media have known that. That they are still slavering is their problem.
239 These vile Hungarian immigrants with their disgusting racist tendencies make me ashamed to be a Member of the European Province of Islington.
What right do they have to impose their democratic views on our evolving state controlled socialist democracy of nanny statehood.
Don’t they understand how upset Brussels will be ?
Unless there is greater taxation, more cultural awareness and great diversity I shall immediately sell my £3M townhouse and decant to Chiantishire forthwith.
Appalled from Islington
Labour in Wales have lost Flintshire, Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport and Torfaen.
Ouch.
sean fear, many congrats on the wonderful Hertsmere result.
where’s Nazi Rod Crosby to tell us how the Tories will never win a majority?
252. Saw her top campaign man on TV this morning claiming in passing she would win the PV. I think they know they can’t win without that. If Obama starts to recover in the polls post-denunciation she really is done for. A North Carolina win will be played as a “big state” win and will give a lot of supers the cover they need to go across.
227 - They should come and live in Norwich. A Lab/Green council. Heaven for a certain type, no doubt.
And if Labour have lost 400 seats (Beeb saying 310, Sky saying 295 atm) then Ian Gibson’s being very, very conservative in saying Gordon’s got until the conference. They’d be foolish to not make him, at the very least, face a stalking horse wouldn’t they? Then again, they allowed him to be crowned leader in the first place, which was foolish in itself. Not sure I should expect any better.
231 - Madonna? Though think she’s a Tory.
If you’re looking for trends, in NYC Jimmy Walker was succeded (after an interim Tammany caretaker) by Fiorello LaGuardia.
Interestingly, LaGuardia was a maverick Republican elected with the votes of liberals, labor progressives, blue-blood GOPers and anti-Tammany Dems. In other words, an anti-establishmentarian with some similarities to . . . Ken Livingtone.
208
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN_nQOHj__s
258 Mother In law is (big time)
ARG latest poll North Carolina seem to confirm Zogby of this morning Obama 52 Clinton 41, two days ago poll was 52 - 42.
Obama been 51-52 in each of their last three polls in the State.
Governor endorsement does not seem to have changed things much
239 - Sean I’m afraid you’ll struggle against the calibre of entries so far.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/01/boris.livingstone?gusrc=rss&feed=politics
I particularly like Vivienne Westwood’s contribution. Today is indeed a dark day for democracy.
Geoff Hoon pretending to be deaf. Best moment of the night!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwKM46Woh2E
In (virtual) retrospect, seems to me that one huge mistake that Livingstone made, was rejoining the Labour Party and making his peace with Blair & Brown.
Would have been much better for him to denounce the current Downing Street regime rather than embrace it.
255 Many thanks. We’ve never achieved four out of four in Bushey before.
Adam Boulton describing it as a “shattering result” for Labour. Brown nowhere to be seen.
254. Are the Conservatives going to control the same number of councils as Labour in Wales by the end of the night? That would be crazy.
Two new polls show movement to Clinton:
Indiana - Downs Centre:
Clinton 52 (+7) Obama 45 (-5)
NC - Rasmussen:
Obama 49 (-2) Clinton 40 (+3)
It is within the realms of possibility that Clinton could get a 10-point win in IN and keep the loss in NC down to 5 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
The RCP averages are now Indiana Clinton +6, NC Obama +7.
Adam Bolton: “All the signs are the Capital has gone as the rest of the country.”
He’s also saying Boris could win by 1st pref too.
256 - She can win the PV, *if* they include Florida where there was no campaign and where the statistics show that Obama would have closed the gap by campaigning, if they include Michigan, where Obama wasn’t even on the ballot and if they exclude four states which Obama won as they were caucus states and haven’t submitted final vote tallies.
Basically she could win the PV by becoming Robert Mugabe.
239
Maybe ask Polly Toynbee how she’s coping with the economic downturn:
Has she had to cut down on flights to Tuscany?
Have Italian villas been effected by sub prime?
How badly has her UK property portfolio been effected?
How much extra has she had to budget for the escalating cost of privately educating her kids?
Sky, Lab still -395, Tories + 290 with just Newport & Carmarthernshire results to come
“Clinton Adviser Claims Indiana Slur Video Is Conspiracy”
“”I’ve never used that word in my entire life, ever, under any circumstance, ever,” an angry Kantor told The Huffington Post, citing his and his parent’s work fighting for civil rights. “I have listened to [the video] and so have you. You can’t tell what it is I’m saying in that second sentence, you can’t decipher that.”
Indeed, a review of the original copy of the 1993 film The War Room, from which the excerpt was taken, is virtually inaudible. The sound suggests, if anything, that instead of saying “How would you like to be a worthless white n****r?” Kantor says, “How would you like to be in the White House right now.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/02/clinton-adviser-claims-in_n_99810.html
257. Even the astroturfers are off-message. Things really must be bad.
273 - Ha! Almost worthy of our very own Geoff ‘I’m pretending not to hear you’ Hoon.
270
Even with this?: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN_nQOHj__s
264. Totally disagree, the biggest mistake Labour was made in letting Ken Livingstone rejoin the Labour party.
Anyway, given that the results haven’t come out yet I couldn’t resist putting £10 on Livingstone at 20/1.
267 - 2 each looks like the final score. Unless Carmarthen goes Red…
Labour have lost Newport to NOC
255 “There was also good news for the Lib Dems in Cardiff, where they made three gains to take 35 seats and overall control of the authority.” The Tories have also pushed Labour into 3rd now I think. Let’s remember four years ago Labour MAJORITY in Cardiff. Staggering
272. pa has very different figures, closer to BBC’s
254
Looks like Lab could lose 10 seats or more in Carmarthenshire as well. PC and Independents doing well.
273. I’ve looked at my copy on DVD and that’s what I think he said.
Why is Bojo not 1.01?
*confused*
Adam Bolton: About half the vote cast, might be finished counting by 8-9pm. Boris still ahead in 8 seats, 2 seats are close. Brian Paddick vote was squeezed.
Rob D 211.In an earlier thread, I was told the discrepancy BBC v.Sky was because the new Durham authority was treated as Labour gain. Now you are saying the BBC have done the same with Cheshire, which would explain why the gap has widened from 60 to 100.I don’t think the BBC has screwed up - more likely it is deliberate to reduce Labour losses. Any way of finding out? If true it is a disgrace,and should be exposed.I wonder if Mike could look into it? It would be significant if betting on number of losses is involved.
272 - Newport will push Labour past that hilarious -400 mark
277. Wish I was your bookmaker Matthew.
288 See 281.
285 - Well its just a choice, do you consider the new councils NEW, or do you consider them as replacing existing councils. BBC have done the former, sky the latter.
Lab to lose another 15-20 seats in the last two councils to declare, Newport and Carmarthenshire.
273 - By the way Clinton has been caught a) being implicated in a robocall scandal and b) with her adviser Blumenthal blitzing the media with emails stuffed with far right talking points.
284- cast=counted! Also incase ya dont know 14 seats in London in total.
re 206, the reason the stock market has jumped is because there has been positve data from the US economy, with early signs of recovery appearing. You may have been joking, but those figures may have more of a bearing on the next GE if the economy starts an upswing over the next few months. We’ll have to wait and see.
274 - good to see you again Harry mate. Really, can no-one post from a vaguely un-Tory point of view on this site without being accused of being in the pay of the Labour party?
267 In all likelihood. A Tory even got elected in the Rhondda!
262 I believe I can rise to the challenge:-
“Last week, in Rome, a fascist was elected as Mayor. Today, a fascist has been elected as Mayor of London. The BNP endorsed Boris Johnson as Mayor, and no wonder. He hates black people; he hates gays; he hates women, the poor, and the disabled. Above all, he hates the rich diversity of peoples and cultures that makes London such a vibrant city in which to live.
Today, London is a city of fear. Fear of a return to the dark days of Thatcherism. Fear of a return to hatred, prejudice, and oppression. This man cannot be permitted to take office, and inflict his poison on the people of our great city.”
292- While the economy might get better, I can’t see inflation going down (especially Food and Energy)
270 - What is it with the PB obsession with comparing everything to Zimbabwe?
Just a quick question though ukpaul. Do you think Obama was right (morally, not politically) to snuff out any chance of a FL or MI do-over?
To my mind he acted like the typical politician he claims not to be. I understand he was under no obligation to agree, and that both sides accepted the orignial rules etc. However, if Obama had come out and said ‘There should be new contests, I want the vote of every American to count, even if it doesn’t help my campaign’ he would have looked statesmanlike and impressive. It would also have had the added advantage of demonstrating conclusively that he won the most votes.
As it is if Clinton gets ahead on the PV with just MI excluded I fear for the divides within the Democratic party.
262
Vivienne Westwood, Fashion designer said:
“Boris as mayor? Unthinkable. It just exposes democracy as a sham, especially if people don’t vote for Ken - he’s the best thing in politics. Unthinkable.”
For God’s sake woman, get a grip and think before you spout such utter gibberish, it’s only a week ago since you were slagging off Labour.
If you don’t like the people’s decision, move back to Glossop why don’t you.
270 - OR, Obama can win the PV only *if* they exclude Florida and Michigan, where neither Obama nor Clinton campaigned, and if they include four states where the popular vote wasn’t even measured.
Basically Obama could win the PV by becoming Robert Mugabe.
294 - I hope that was from that site’s equivalent of Adrian Harper. The mind boggles if they were being serious.
294. You missed out eating babies Sean!!
294. I just posted this on commentisfree. Not sure if it will make it past the moderators:
“If Boris somehow “wins” this election I literally think we will see blood running in the streets as old women are run over constantly by grinning hoorays.
I am so sad I am going to cry and then I will have to go to bed. Humans are awful. Why don’t we only allow nice people to vote? I hate those stupid smelly chavs with their racist views. Who gave them the vote, anyway? Yes, we did. Keir Hardie. The Guardian. Us. And this is how they repay us. Ugh.
I moved to London from America to get away from stupid ugly rightwing poor people, and now the stupid people have followed me.
Come on everyone lets go to New Zealand.”
294 - no, too Churchillian in structure. We need to be able to hear the lip-quivering anguish in your words.
282 - Calling the people of Indiana ‘Shits’ is really going to go down well isn’t it?
Could be worse could be the vile Pastor Hagee though. Now there is a story waiting to explode.
292 - stock market jump may well be a dead cat bounce
295, off topic, true, but high energy prices could trun out to do us a favour if we have to look for alternatives to oil or reductions in usage. I’ve already decided to work at home 2 days a week to reduce my travel costs.
179:
Yes, the comments on that blog are a hoot. They’re blaming everyone from Brian Paddick to the Guardian editorial. Someone is even suggesting - in apparent seriousness - that the result should be annulled if the turnout is 45%.
The Guardian is doomed
I know professors in political science here, in Montreal, who think the The Guardian will lose his ‘reputation’ in the coming months — as even the intelligent Lefties of London will realise they had no reason whatsoever of being “afraid”, “very afraid” of a Boris victory…
294. Did Roger post that?
294 - LOL! Superb Sean.
304 - speaking here in my role as respected finacial analyst. Unfortunately, must leave the blogging shortly to pawn my daddy’s watch in order to buy my next Happy Meal . . .
According to the Waltham Forest Guardian website, Labour’s Janette Arnold is leading (as expected) the North West GLA seat (Waltham Forest/Islington/Hackney).
303
UK.Paul
I taught so too — was ready to sell my intrade contracts! — by now, a second thaught after I read this:
“”Indiana was not even on our radar screen,” he said, “And I was talking about the polling and not the people… If you look at The War Room, this is not the way Carville or George interpreted my statement. This is frankly libelous.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/02/clinton-adviser-claims-in_n_99810.html
What do you think now?
292 Forget an “upswing” in the next few months, the downswing has only just got going and it’ll be at least 3 or 4 years before this financial cycle starts to turn again. Read von Mises and Rothbard.
298 - Ha! So the PV matters in states which broke the rules and were told they wouldn’t count and it doesn’t matter in states where there was a legal race and where the votes do count.
Any more jokes?
Clinton has turned into what she used to hate, supported by people who are hypocrites. That’s the sad thing abouyt this, and not only her reputation, but that of her husband has been systematically destroyed. Still they only have themselves to blame (and the right wing loons who have encouraged them I suppose).
301 - Thanks Sean, that pretty much nails it I think!
Hands up now how many here believe the BBC on their TV & Radio news programmes and internet output this evening, will truthly report Labour as having lost over 400 seats.
What, none of you?
306- “They’re blaming everyone from Brian Paddick”
LOL, they never heard about the 2nd pref then, good to see they are up to date with the electorial rules.
Credit where credit’s due - McCain stands up to the agriculture lobby.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080502/D90D6PAG0.html
296. I’m genuinely divided on the issue. It’s not really fair to exclude them, but nor is it fair to bring them back in to play halfway through the contest, just so Clinton has extra chances to come back when she’s running out of them. He supported do-overs back pre-Super Tuesday, but to suddenly decide to do them now would be deeply unfair. Clearly he is taking a position to his advantage, and there was a high road he could have taken - but is it really that unethical to maintain we should stick to the rules as they existed at the start of the process, especially when you know Clinton would have done the same.
I’ve also believed for a while Obama will get enough superdelegates they can seat MI and FL regardless.
297.
Vivienne Westwood and other such ‘opinion formers’ are ludicrous. Isn’t it odd how democracy is only working when the ‘correct’ candidate wins. It’s an attitude that would shame a banana republic.
is it official 400 labour losses now?
Any problems yet reported from the counting?
Hold on guys there’s a “Brown Bounce” on the Sky News website
Election results: Should Gordon Brown go?Yes 86% No 14%
Paddick said that the Lib Dems will get 15%
315- At the momment they appear to be playing both sides saying Labour have “Lost more than 300 seats” . The BBC better hope they dont lose 5 more seats.
Hah, my spoof post made it onto commentisfree! It’s under the name “angryleftie”.
Come on Sian Berry you can do it
‘Clinton has turned into what she used to hate’
She turned to the Dark Side: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8lvc-azCXY
video of the week: The Empire Strikes Barack
294 - Sean, very good, though as animal says at [302], the ‘quote’ is too well put-together to be a perfect parody.
By the way, thanks to those who watched for my result from Baildon earlier today. Rather disappointing, but the sitting Lib Dem has a big personal vote and he benefitted from the collapse in the Labour vote.
Concentrating on the local scene round where I live, one of the most noticable factors has been the turnouts. 49% in my ward and well into the forties in several other heavily Conservative wards, racking up some big Tory majorities on Bradford Council. Whether there is strengthening feeling among the Conservative-inclined, or whether there is switiching among floating voters (probably both), they’re not the sort of results that can be brushed under the carpet.
319 Still stuck at 395 Labour losses on Sky, until they update:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/fixed_article/0,,91211-1314737,00.html
One piece of good news amongst the gloom for me, as a Labour supporter. My cousin, Andrea Williams, was elected to Tredegar Town Council and came second in the poll.
What is the link for the Comment is Free article?!?!
I WANT TO PLAY!!!!
330:
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jonathan_myerson/2008/05/we_are_really_in_trouble.html
330 - yeah, me too
Brown has really suffered a personal battering today, this is obviously why Labour have issued the writ for the C & N by-election prior to the results. To try and keep the Labour Party from being ferrets in a sack because any leadership challange or percieved lack of loyality will be blamed upon MP’s in marginal seats speaking out against the mandateless loser!
whence the C & N by-election is lost to either Tories of Lib Dems. So maybe Brown has repeated his shortermism to shore his position up but will fall in the long term as C & N will probably Brown’s last stand! 
316. I saw someone on the CiF blog saying ‘Brian Paddick is Ralph Nader to Ken Livingstone’s Al Gore’ - i.e., Ken would have won if it wasn’t for him! I feel this may be a little over-optimistic… and also exaggerates the effect of Paddick. Even if he had publicly declared his second preference between Boris and Ken, somehow I doubt it would have had any actual impact on the result.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +294
LAB -9 -395
LIB +0 +30
OTH +0 +71
(New Result: No idea, but the figures have changed slightly)
(No idea what the BBC Results are. I appear to be 2 hours behind!)
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/index.html
that is the main page - go and play -
an update from LibDem controlled South Lakeland………only recently back from the count…..
new council (there were all outs and boundary changes, so comparisons are less easy, but if anyone wants a headline it is LibDems gain 4 Tory seats)
LibDem 36
Con 14
Lab 1
Labour lost one seat in Ulverston to the Cons, and held onto their remaining seat by only 11 votes (remember that Ulverston is in Barrow-in Furness Parliamentary constituency, so someone might want to add these reuslts to how Labour did in Barrow last night, and speculate how John Hutton might do if a General Election were called tomorrow!)
So back to Westmorland & Londsale country…….Labour still wiped out in Kendal……no Conservative revival, in fact,the Cons held one seat by 9, and one by 40. The LibDem victories were, generally comfortable.
For my own ward (a two-member version):
LibDem 1337
LibDem(me) 1292
Con 845
Con 836
spoilt 5
Total 2221……which is 62% turnout.
The other day Icarus commented about his journey through South Lakeland and the numbers of Golden Diamonds around (previously Bob Sykes had berated the LibDem stakeboards for despoiling the Lakeland countryside). A brief note that the Con stakeboards were mostly in the fields and the LibDem one were mostly in house gardens, so clearly the people were voting LibDem and the sheep were voting Tory!
will catch up on threads over the weekend, but wanted to share the view from the north west…….and does anyone still see Westmorland & Lonsdale being won by the Cons in, let’s say, 2010?
Who was Paddicks second preference then? I saw somewhere he was going to advise after polling day.
288 - it doesn’t matter, they’re not gains if you class them as new councils. Which party has Labour gained its seats from in Durham, for example?
There are two valid ways of treating these councils:
1) You can calculate gains and losses based on the old council - the Sky method.
2) You can ignore them completely and exclude them from all calculations of gains and losses.
What you can’t do is the BBC’s method of counting them all as gains for the winning party.
To give an example of how absurd that is, let’s look at the Croft ward on the new Northumberland council - chosen completely at random. In 2005, Labour won the Croft ward on the old Northumberland County Council. In 2008, Labour won the identical Croft ward on the new Northumberland unitary council.
The BBC consider this to be a Labour gain. Bizarre.
On the seat losses - Wales account for a big proportion. They have had all-out elections and this makes these dramatic changes more possible.
Socrates - I’m not saying he should support them now, that ship has sailed, it is impossible practically. My point was that there was a window of opportunity before OH and TX and he worked behind the scenes to prevent the re-runs. As a political decision it was understandable, given he was ahead it reduced Clinton’s ability to catch-up in states that favour her. However given his spiel is all about throwing away the old ‘textbook’ of Washington politics, he seems to have failed to live up to his reputation. Of course this is all inside baseball stuff that no voters will care much about. However ukpaul consistently portrays Clinton as the devil incarnate and Obama a shining example of virtue. The truth is a tad more nuanced.
334 - Not an exaggeration but utterly daft to portray Paddick as Nader. Clearly somebody does not understand that it is not FPTP.
It’s ridiculous to say that Boris will destroy London. But people may become quite peeved when they realise he is not quitting as an MP, when the Routemaster does not come back, when he has little or no impact on levels of crime and traffic congestion increases. Now that he is in a position of responsibility any gaffes he makes will probably not seem so funny.
Hehehe!! Thanks guys!
342. You speak as if what youre saying is fact. I’m sure Boris with the right team around him will deliver.
342 Show some dignity loser..
Newport from their website:
Lab 19
Con 16
Ldem 6
PC 2
Ind 1
with 6 seats undeclared. Lab lose control.
If Boris makes Paddick chair of the Met Police whatsit, will he sack Sir Ian Blair? Payback time?
342. Still better than LOSING though, innit?
What a shame your illegally-cast vote for Ken didn’t pay off. Are you still “weeping” for the city you “love so much”?
lol.
340. I appreciate your point, but I think anyone that was truly an angel in always taking the moral high ground every time wouldn’t survive in politics. You always have to play the game at least a little bit, and in a sitution where there is a decent moral argument on both sides I won’t hold it against someone for taking the strategy that favours them.
Obama’s not a saint, and many of his supporters are going to become disillusioned because of that, but I understand he’s abotu as good as we’re going to get in the dirty world of politics.
that moron jowell on sky admitting that boris has won. she really is the most corrupt, craven and shameless advert for nulabour. what a wa@nker she is.
342 - Indeed, the Mayor doesn’t have that much power, really. Reading the bleating on the Guardian website, and that laughable Zoe Williams article yesterday, you’d think Londoners were about to choose Adolf Hitler as Chancellor or something. Obviously, the left should be annoyed with themselves and disappointed, but it’s not the end of the world.
Equally for Bozza, it’ll be very interesting once Lynton Crosby goes back to Oz. Interesting times ahead for Londoners.
Would be funny if Labour did a Thatcher and un-devolved the London Assembly and got rid of the mayoralty - sorry that is me being wicked and having fun thoughts ….
SeanT - what particularly amuses me about your comment is that 95% of the Guardianistas on commentisfree will fail to recognise it as satire.
They will take it.. SERIOUSLY.
I wonder, actually, how completely over-the-top one has to go before they recognise a comment as a spoof…
Hmm, let me think
Carmarthenshire [declared so far]
Ind/Others……30 -03
Plaid………..29 +13
Labour……….10 -15
LibDem……….01 +01
[4 left to declare]
Damn, post went into the ether.
Basically, Clinton has lost, she’s a hypocrite and I wouldn’t trust Carville to tell the truth if you connected a megaton bomb to a lie detector and strapped both to his strangely shaped head.
Paddick on R4 PM - bottles out of telling us who his second choice went to. Despite his previous promise. Apparently, his minders wwon’t let him. Aaaaah…..bless. And here we thought he was a tough copper!
Paddick performed so badly and ineptly in this election, and revealed himself to be such a narcissistic, bad-tempered plonker, BoJo would be well advised not to appoint him to anything.
Ian Blair must go though.
347 - he can’t do that. Which is why the fuss over Ken supporting Blair was so ludicrous, it doesn’t matter, he doesn’t have the power. Unlike Bloomberg in NYC, who can do all kinds of things.
Re Westmorland + Lonsdale, I still expect it to return to the Tory fold when it comes to turfing out Brown in 2010, whatever the issues on the local council.
Lab lose 13 seats in Carmarthenshire. Only Newport to fully declare now. Have lost contraol and probably 8 seats.
these spoof posts are mostly funny because right-wingers cannot actually do the right style of angry lefties - they can say things worthy of Polly Toynbee but it is always phrased in a certain hysterical style more reminiscent of Littlejohn, and the end result is you can spot the spoof a mile off.
I am certain the same would be true the other way round as well.
Carmarthenshire [all declared]
Plaid……….31 +15
Ind/Others…..30 -03
Labour………12 -13
LibDem………01 +01
Brian Paddick declares that Boris Johnson is so far ahead on first preferences that he can’t be overhauled on second preferences.
Anyone had a go at aggregating the results for the Crewe & Nantwich constituency from the Cheshire results?
My God. There ARE some real classics on Commentisfree!!
This made me laugh:
“everyone in this country is right wing, it is so depressing and stupid.”
Haha!!
314 - “Ha! So the PV matters in states which broke the rules and were told they wouldn’t count and it doesn’t matter in states where there was a legal race and where the votes do count.
Any more jokes?”
You are so blinded by your hatred to Clinton that you can’t see that with your own words you are condemning yourself. There wasn’t any popular vote in those states which had caucuses, no matter how legitimate the caucuses might be. And legitimate or not, Michigan and Florida both had popular votes. You are just spinning to try to make the results to look better to your favourite candidate.
341. Paddick as Nadar - who would have thought my observation of Nick Clegg being like Neil Kinnock was so precise? Nick Clegg quoting Neil Kinnock at PMQ’s
You really could not make it up! Clegg is a lucky man - if the LD’s had done slighty worse it would have been curtains! Clegg gets to punch the air another day! AWRIGGGGGGGHt! 
358 Bob S. Me thinks Westmorland and Lonsdale will be the Norfolk North of 2010 !
I feel sure there’ll be an ARSE constituency poll !!
363 - wonder if a post by DonRimming will make it on there
349 - I share that position. Indeed, Obama’s willingness to throw elbows at times has convinced me more about his candidacy. At the beginning I worried he was too idealistic to win. If he comes through the Wright stuff he has a great chance of being the next President.
My worry is that Obama has set himself a high standard. In US Presidential politics it seems to me candidates need a good rationale. For Obama that is him being diffeent from other politicians and a uniter who can inspire people. I can see problems in the General for example when McCain says something like ‘You talking about reaching across the aisle and uniting, but I’ve actually done it. What Bills have you passed with the support of Republicans?’ If people start to doubt that the rhetoric and the reality coincide then Obama will be on shaky ground. Don’t get me wrong he is an incredibly talented politican and is by no means destined to fail.
340 - Clinton is not the devil incarnate but she is a negative, petty, divisive, increasingly rightwing politician who has lost all of the admiration I used to have for her (and teh same goes for Bill).
She only has herself to blame.
As for Obama the way he has conducted himself has shown him to be ten times the person that she has attempted to be and, whilst what he would be like as president is an unknown, America would be better for not having to endure the type opf politics that Bush/Clinton have come to represent.
I also posit McCain as being ten times the person that she is, I might question some of his politics but not the man.
I heard a classic quote from a a Nazi party member in Stoke in the local paper
she said the victory for the Pratriot Party was a blow to the left wing establishment of Labour, Liberal, and Conservatives !!!!!
and she was serious about it too …
360 Probably true. The really great parodies are affectionate (eg Mel Brooks’s Young Frankenstein was a tribute too, as a well as a send up of) 1930s monster movies.
362 - yes, Iain Dale has. Apparently it’s a cliffhanger (apologies, I’m on my blackberry so can’t attach a link).
360. Take yr point, it is difficult to get the exact tone right - the mindset of these preening, idiotic lefties is so weird.
But some of these commenters do sound eerily like a rightwinger spoofing an hysterical Guardianista. Try this one:
“Well I’ve already got my bags packed incase the worse happens. I can’t believe we’re at a stage where Johnson actually has a chance to completely shit all over London.
“As a black female, I’m basically screwed and luckily I have some savings so if this fool does win, I’m on a jet plane anywhere. Probably to the Congo. I’m sure Boris wouldn’t approve of this. Shows you what a state British Politics is in when a racist, a bigot and a man who clearly has no idea what he’s going to do if he wins can decide what’s best for Londoners.
“Conservatives/BNP, seems these days there’s a thin line and I’m not going to stay around while this line is no more. Everyone wants a perfect London and some how stupid people think that Boris is the man to do it. Wake up! Maybe they should put Cannabis back up to a class B drug because obviously we’ve been smoking too much of it and have all lost are bloody minds!
“With regards to his new buses, does anyone know how much theyre going to cost us taxpayers? No? I’ll tell you something funny…neither does he! A man with no clear or coherent policies. God help us all.”
Now is that real, or a clever parody?
362 - yes, Iain Dale reports:
Newport now declared. Lab loses 8 seats.
Sky should update to 416 losses for Lab soon.
345, 348 - I did not lose. I have no vote in London because I live in Warwickshire, hence the term Observer.
348 - why on earth did you accuse me of voting illegally? I voted, perfectly legally, at my local village hall in the district of Stratford-upon-Avon.
What charmers you two are.
362 - Yes, this is from Iain Dale. So Lib Dem’s can’t claim they are the challengers.
Cons 31.15%
Labour 31.8%
LD 18.70%
Others: 18.35%
360 - yeah. Right wingers tend to unconsciously adopt the ‘angry posturing’ tone. A real left winger has more of a ‘girly emoting’ quality about them.
This is pretty funny too - as a wind-up:
“Mayor Boris is the best thing to have happened to London since Gracie Fields sang “Mammy” in the black and white minstrel show on August 8th 1943.
I look forward to the new conservative government and I hope my taxes go down and the whinging slackers are given a bloody good hiding.”
347 - I think he said on Sky this morning that he wouldn’t accept a job from either Boris or Ken. Not sure if the Mayor has the power to make such an appointment either.
The difference between BBC and Sky News is that the former are excluding the 4 new unitary authorities, whereas the latter are including htem, presumably against notional results last time.
I think these are Durham, Cheshire times 2 and Northumberland, and if my tallies are correct, which they may not be exactly acurate, the effect of them on the numbers is:
Con +45, Lab -86, LibDem +21.
This accounts for the difference, give or take the odd timing difference in allocating results.
361. It’s odd that BBC R4 PM programme was still presenting the election as “too close to call” at arount 5.15pm.
359 It’s June before Newport declares those 6 I understand from something I read yesterday - death of 2 candidates so delay till next month.
373 it is an obvious parody by a demented right wing poster who things that lefties don’t see through these spoofs
361 Doesn’t this mean, in effect, he’s won on 1st prefs? If not he must presumably be within 3% - 4% of the required 50% level. Anyone near this in PB’s competition richly deserves their prize of a battered, eBay sourced copy of Mike’s book.
375. Forgive me, but I’m sure there was someone with a name very like yours - saying he was going to drive 300 miles to London to vote for Ken.
Looking back, it may have been a spoof. But haven’t we had some confusion before, over the name “observer”?
Hm. I could be wrong. If so - apols.
361. Makes rather a mockery of this paragraph on the BBC Website doesn’t it?
“The results will almost certainly be decided on second preference votes, say pundits. ”
364 - Come off it, people voted in caucus states, yes, they were able to switch but they were legal votes. Any attempt to disenfranchise the votes in caucus states is just unbelievable. No rational person could justify that.
If you also think that MI & FL count in any way then you have very selective memories. They broke the rules, they do not count, they were never going to count. Now I know some on here refused to believe it at the time but I did and made it clear what would transpire, I’m not going to apologise for being proved right.
By the way, look at Clinton’s polling negatives. Not as bad as Bush but if a politician becomes so disliked before they get into office then watch out.
385. I do reall that post but not sure if it was the same person - 300 miles! ouch at todays fuel prices!
375. Ho ho, this name seems popular among dubious posters of various types, doesn’t it?
366 Exactly right… this seat is Farron’s now… he is hugely popular there and it’s the kind of place rather like the Highlands where personality beats the colour of your rosette.
Any Tory posters care to use their BoJo winnings to offer me odds on this one?
jeremy vine´s performance and the entirely pointless shooting gallery sequence represents a nadir in bbc political coverage
I just emailed info @ londonelects dot org dot uk to say this: This count is a world-class and very public disgrace to the world’s greatest capital city. Regards, etc. I forebore to say ‘You are an absolute shower’.
370: ’she said the victory for the Pratriot Party was a blow to the left wing establishment of Labour, Liberal, and Conservatives !!!!!’
I blame Peter Hitchens for promulgating that particular meme.
384. It also means that certain pollsters will be looking extremely embarrassed by the time all tonight’s results are known. But then, we knew that would be the case anyway.
So far, it’s looking like those who believed YouGov’s polls chose wisely…
358. Not if the Conservatives don’t have any councilors left! The Lib Dems have been very systematically eliminating the Conservatives there since 2005.
When will Betfair pay out on Boris.I am thinking about putting a thousand or two on him but do not want to tie the money on him for too long.
369 - Overall Clinton has been more negative in the campaign than Obama but that is largely because she has been behind. Yet look at Pennsylvania. Obama goes negative because he is behind. The other problem the Clinton campaign had was that because she was seen as the front-runner for so long she received more scrutiny than Obama did. That is changing now and in the last few weeks I’d say Clinton has been preety positive. Ultimately see is doing Obama a favour. He needs to work out how to deal with attacks now, so that when they come in from the GOP he can cope.
My point is that there should be a bit of perspective. Clinton has negative qualities but positive ones as well, especially her tenacity. She has received more votes than any other Presidential candidate in history in the primaries. If she loses the PV and precedes to take the nomination to the convention then I would be pretty angry. However she has every right to stay in the race until the primaries are over.
395 I would imagine shortly after the result is announced, Mikhail. About 7.40pm?
364. The votes in those caucus states were cast by every day people rather than politicians, so in what sense are they not popular?
385 - It wasn’t me that said that. Maybe Observer is a common name on here. I have only just started posting so I don’t know.
I am interested in the London election because I was amazed the Tories put Boris forward as their candidate. It will be interesting to see how he performs, given that many of his big election themes are very difficult to deliver on - reintroducing the routemaster, a no strike agreement with the tube drivers, reducing crime etc. My point - which is not a bitter one at all - is that you can be a bit of a gaffe-prone outsider when you have no responsibilities, but it is a much harder thing to get away with you are in office.
Incidentally, we made five gains in Stratford! The LDs, that is.
386 Whenever I see the term “pundits” referred to, I always assume that the writer is just making up a story to correspond with his or her own conceived ideas.
Mike, I’ve got a comment awaiting moderation (only quoting the Dale figures for C&N) - this also happened to me the other day. Is it because I was trying to blockquote it?
forgot to mention at 337 that the train from Oxenholme to Crewe had some extra passengers this afternoon…….every little helps!
396. The Clinton campaign has brought up every single possible thing it could on Obama, when there is a mansion full of skeletons that the Obama campaign has never mentioned.
395. F**k knows.
They still haven’t paid out on Italy and Berlusconi.
WHY?
To make money £££££ on interest in the bank.
Take my advice: All green your position and pull out all your stake; save the profit, which will mature when Betfair are “ready”
OT - KENTUCKY DERBY
Hillary Clinton has been urging her supporters to put their money on the only filly running in tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby.
Don’t know if that will help any astute pbers make a bit of money, but thought I’d pass it along.
BTW, true Brits please note, that in US, word “derby” is pronounced like it is spelled: Der-by, not Dar-by. Just wanted to save you from social stigma while sipping on your mint julip . . .
Iain Dale showing that LabourHome have developed a bunker mentality on his liveblog. Link to LabourHome below:-
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/5/2/101659/4492
383
BBC showing Newport fully declared…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/local_council/08/html/pr.stm
…but they are wrong and you are correct. Both wards postponed after 2 deaths.
sorry 383 not 383
387 - Everybody in the US expected the MI and FL delegations to be seated once there was a nominee, not expecting them to matter. But I come back to my earlier point. Why did Obama not agree to re-runs? The ‘rules’ may have been agreed to by the campaigns but they weren’t agreed to by the voters, it is hardly fair on the millions disenfranchised. Obama had the power to let them have their say and decided not to.
399. Wasn’t there some shyster called Observer who welched on a bet with our esteemed host?
If I am right - and I may not be - and you are really a new commenter, I kindly suggest you choose a less tainted moniker.
Evening all , just home from work , yes I owe kingbongo £ 10 I have the address up thread but payable to whom ? Yes ghost of harry flashman owes me £ 20 if he could email me on markseniorcoins@msn.com I will reply with my address .
Some random comments , a good overall performance by the Conservatives and a very poor one by Labour with a few exceptions in both cases . LibDems reasonable holding firm and progressing in most areas where they are strong and a general slipping back where they are weak . One or two very poor performances - what went wrong in Pendle for example .
The actual gains/losses in England ( excluding the new unitaries ) were Con + 190 LibDem + 15 Lab - 195 Others - 10 .
LibDem figure pretty close to my + 10 .
Worthing was mixed , one very narrow loss to Conservatives but James D gained Selden from Conservatives with a massive swing and a 600 plus majority . 3 other very marginal wards could have gone either way .
Final point for now , as always I am puzzled my the notional vote shares put out by the BBC . The minor parties will have polled around 14% in the local elections , most pollsters have them at 10% or so in the national polls and yet the BBC give them a notional 7% . It does not matter greatly as they use the same calculations every year so they are comparable to that extent .
397 Knowing Betfair they may actually pay out only when Boris is sworn in.
Any update on London turnout? Sky were quoting 45% earlier.
395 When he can’t possibly lose? No chance.
When every last vote has been counted and all the necessary checks have been carried out and the last opportunity for recounts, etc, etc has passed.
Nick Robinson waxing about the day he broke the story that Boris was running for Mayor…
405. I’ll never pronounce it that way. it’s Darby. Americans!!!!!!
410. Wasn’t it commentator?
403 - I’m not denying that. But it can be partially accounted for by the different media attitudes and her being behind. Obama went negative in PA and the media is now scrutinising him more closely. Clinton wants to win and will do what she can to ensure that happens and Obama is the same. They may differ on the limits, but it is a difference of degrees.
410 - I am sure that Mr Smithson could confirm I am a very recent member of this community. I don’t bet but I do like reading the gossip and commenting on it now and again.
I’ll change my name to Southam Observer to avoid any confusion.
396 - Clinton? Positive? The name Blumenthal mean anything?
I do think this has helped Obama by lancing potential issues early, I also think that it hasn’t done the Democratic brand any good at all, McCain should be behind given the main issues at play but he’s level. It may be his high point and he dips when the focus turns onto him but it’s a fool game to deliberately start from a weak position.
Anyone who knows me on here knows that I reserve my greatest ire for machine politicians, negative campaigning and the politics of fear. I probably couldn’t design a candidate to annoy me more than Clinton.
413 - London Elects: “Early indications show voter turnout in yesterday’s London elections is an estimated 45%”
416 I’m going to whisper this very quietly Woody, are you still a season ticket holder?
418. Part of the reason why people like McCain and Obama get media coverage is they behave, if not entirely benevolently, honourably. And the reason they go after people like Clinton and Cheney is because they don’t. What was the worse thing Obama said about Clinton in PA?
CALLING MARK SENIOR - CALLING MARK SENIOR
I understand he posts on here often. This is a political betting website, and Mark made a bet with me on Vote-2007 that the Conservatives would not win in Ossett, Wakefield.
We won by 15 votes.
I expect that some pressure could be brought to bear to ensure he pays up by punters on this site. If this site is about anything it is about political betting.
There
424 Mark was upthread just a few minutes ago.
421 - That’s really good. Maybe they should try this mayor thing in some other cities, might help turnout elsewhere, having personalities going head to head.
A worrying post by Fraser Nelson on CoffeeHouse
” One Tory Shadow Cabinet member says he has been told there’s 1% in it, so they will have to do a recount anyway - this conflicts with numerous reports that Boris is comfortably ahead.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/648481/when-will-we-get-a-result.thtml
409 - If you change the rules of elections halfway through the process then it puts the whole process into question. If nothing is fixed then what’s the point? I don’t see it as a partisan point, just one of electoral validity.
418 - Obama in PA was ‘kiddie negative’ in comparison, it also stood so poorly with him that his team has now been told to steer clear of those sort of tactics. That’s good leadership, in my opinion.
365
The share of votes in Crewe & Nantwich is as follows:
Con……….50.3% [24 candidates]
Lab……….25.7% [21]
Ind……….11.5% [10]
LibDem…….10.3% [9]
Green……..01.6% [3]
UKIP………00.6% [1]
For anyone betting on (or interested in!) the number of Assembly seats:
Enfield and Harringey almost tied after 72% counted
Brent and Harrow Labour leading (to gain from Con) after 76% counted
420 - Yeah, we just have different views on politics. While in an ideal world I would love a politics which was rational, positive and open it is just never going to happen. While these qualities are important the ability to implement changes can trump them IMO. The attraction of Clinton is the feeling that she won’t back down under the pressure of GOP attacks. US Politics is negative and if you don’t stand up for yourself you will lose, as Kerry found to his cost.
Clinton has had positive messages on issues like healthcare, the economy and energy. That is what most of her ads have been about. Her success has been achieved because lots of voters see her as someone who understands their problems and will fight for their cause. Obama in contrast can be quite cool and aloof.
On the high negatives. Obama has high negatives. See the latest Rasmussen tracker. Unfavourables for Clinton are 52%, Obama 49%. The primaries aren’t harming the Democrats IMO because they are having to build networks in all 50 states, giving them info on voters that McCain won’t have. As long as they unite when it is over they will be fine.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Nick Robinson - Gordon Brown apparently comparing himself to John Major in 1992.
He wishes!
431
Please leave Edwina Currie out of this thread!!
422. Fortunately they sold out before I was ready to buy. Been to a few games and it’s been grim. Darren Moore is our player of the year. Says it all.
Then again we shouldn’t have got promoted because we weren’t much good last year either.
Length of London count
There is post on Finkelstein’s Times blog, quoting posting on Three Line Whip: “According to an official at the count, by 3pm only 40 per cent of votes had been counted since the machines whirred into action at 8.30am.”
Extrapolating from this would seem to indicated that counting will last until approx. midnight.
Note that counting preference-voting elections is lot more complicated that for single-seat FPTP parliamentary elections. So naturally it takes longer.
431. I would think shirt tucked into his underpants is the nearest he’ll get to Major.
New thread - PB exceeds 200,000 pageloads so far day
428 - You can see it as good leadership or you could see it as good political tactics. Do some negative campaigning, see if it works or not, when it doesn’t say that it was your campaign team and that you’re stopping it. Clever, maintains Obama’s image while allowing him to try out some negative stuff.
On changing the process are you opposed to the Puerto Rico change from a Caucus to a Primary on a different day? What you seem to be suggesting is that when a process is shown to have flaws (i.e. millions are disenfranchised by it) we should inflexibly stick to it, rather than try to improve it. That seems a bit strange to me.
Sadly stuck at 98.75% of 400 net losses for Labour.
Brown is an accelerated version of Major. He has gone from a superficially popular fresh leader to a complete disaster in just a few months, rather than taking 2-3 years.
433 I’m rather ashamed to admit that I’ve been watching from afar very profitably.
429. Eh?
That doesn’t compute..
Do we know you anyway?
“While in an ideal world I would love a politics which was rational, positive and open it is just never going to happen. ”
And there we disagree, until there is a change in the approach you mention politics will remain as something that most people get angry with, if not downright hostile to. It does not have to be like that; politics is there to help people’s lives, not to provide a soapbox for people to argue with and denigrate other human beings.
To reduce it to who is worse than another must, and inevitably will, change; if nobody works towards that then it won’t and those politicians who seek to connect, bring together and give hope must be given their chance. If not then we are condemned to remain in the gutter.
442 - The problem is one of unilateral disarmament. If one side lays down their weapons they lose. Negative campaigning in the US works. In other words it is the fault of the electorate not politicians.
The second point though is that there has to be a balance. An election is a choice, so it is right that a candidate highlight their positive aspects and their opponents negatives. That is the only way to show they are better. Of course there are then limits to how far you take that, but then you are into a question of degrees rather than absolutes.
I just think it is very easy to stand on the sidelines and say politicians should be more positive but the reality is more complex.
437 - The difference is if rules are broken, I don’t know if PR did but the lack of complaints says that it was within the rules. With something that relies on knowing what you are facing it’s the rules that dictate what happens. When someone breaks those rules, knowing the penalty, then those penalties must be imposed.
That may be unfair on some but their argument is with those who set the rules and also with those who broke them. The time to sort this was before the process started.
Anh comment on F Nelson’s Cabinet contact’s reported remark (allegedly, etc.) that there is only one per cent between Ken and Boris, with recount possible?
Just a reminder of a recent classic:
89.It has finally dawned on you LOT that Boris is NOT going to win.
HENCE THE SILENCE FROM RIGHT WING BLOGGERS
Ken was on top form, and Boris was a disaster. The audience were holding back their laughter every time Boris spoke, he was abysmal and you know it.
How do I know, normally after an event with Boris on show, all the right wing bloggers come out hailing victory for Bozzer…but not anymore
Come the 2nd of May poor old YouGov will need to start an internal inquiry
by Spammer April 25th, 2008 at 10:11 am
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/04/25/will-the-mayoral-result-resolve-the-yougov-row/#comments
Link to Nelson http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/648481/when-will-we-get-a-result.thtml
Is there a big enough font on PB for Ave it 08’s next post?
If Paddick really did give his second to Lindsay German, that’s his political career in the LibDems completely stuffed. Silly sod.
Desn’t the 1% rumour regrading a possible recount possibly relate to Boris being on 49%? It’s inconceibavle that Bozzer is only 1% ahead of Ken, surely…
“Negative campaigning in the US works. ”
That’s what I mean, if it isn’t tested then of course that’s what people believe. To subject campaigns to independent scrutiny of claims is a start; lies must be paid for and apologised for, misleading comments and use of figures should result in something similar and so on.
People who are voting in a democracy deserve nothing less, you would expect to be able to claim successfully against a seller misrepresenting their product and politics should follow that lead.
The thing is that a great number of people think that politics is *about* lies and getting one over on someone else. Until an effort is made to wrestle it into an area where these things result in the sanctions that already apply to us mortals in everyday life our trust in the democratic process will remain sullied.
Where and when do you start? The only place you can start from is right here and right now.
Shouldn’t we have got the first London results at 3pm? What’s going on and should we be concerned?
441 Yes. You do know me as an occasional contributor. I am a Conservative Cllr in Camden. We have people watching at the count. Bob was ahead earlier in Brent&Harrow but I presume it is as more Brent boxes are open he has drifted behind.
A further MAJOR worry - I am not sure what the pctge shares of vote on GLA will give us (Conservatives) if we lose one and so only win 8 of the 14 constituencies - and don’t get any top-up, then Boris could not get his budget through the assembly (you need 9 to prevent the opposition blocking the Mayor’s budget. I suppose roughly we need 36% of the Party List vote to give us a top up if we win 8 constituency seats, maybe a bit less as parties under 5% will be excluded.
452 - Isn’t it just the high turn out, we’re being told, that’s affected the timing?
433. Derby haven’t even got enough points to lose their licence!
451 - But it has been tested. Just look at the 2004 Presidential election. Bush attacked Kerry viciously, Kerry attacked only half-heartedly if at all. Of course you’re right that politicians shouldn’t lie or deliberatly mislead, but facts that are the same can be interpreted in different ways.
An example is the economy. There are hundreds of statistics that could be used. Funnily enough the government pick the most favourable ones and trumpet them. The opposition goes on about the negative ones. If either gave a balanced position and failed to point out either their own achievements or their oppositions failings then they would lose. It’s similar to the adversarial system in law. People get to hear both sides and then they can decide.
I’m not disputing that politics can be cleaner, just that you seem to have unrealistic expectations.
On the process point PR changed their procedures and got them approved by the DNC. That happened after the start of the process. Similarly if Obama and Clinton had agreed then MI and FL would have submitted plans for do-overs and the DNC would have approved them. The process itself has these flexibilities in place. And your concerns seems to be about what is fair for the candidates. Mine is for the voters. There was a way of getting millions of voices heard (and helping whoever the Dem nominnee is in the biggest swing state in the GE) and Obama thwarted it.
453. Very suspicious.
453. Very suspicious…
From Dizzy:
City and East - (80+% counted) Ken wins on first preferences
Greewnich and Lewisham - still counting, Ken leading 60:40 on first preference
Bexley and Bromley - (80+% counted) Landslide Tory victory
Havering and Redbridge - (80+% counted) Landslide Tory victory (bye bye Jaqui Smith)
Havering and Redbridge - (80+% counted) Landslide Tory victory (bye bye Jaqui Smith)
Redditch is in the midlands.
455 - Kerry was a crap candidate, wooden, unable to connect with voters, easily pushed off balance.
There are also uses of figures which go beyond fair use of selective sets, nobody is going to castigate plausible figures, thats’ a fair game.
Finally, society never progresses without people who have unrealistic expectations to work towards. Maybe they don’t make it but their children and their children’s children will. Votes for women, emancipation of slaves, why did they bother? To my mind the next stage in the maturity of democracy is for it to become less adversarial, more connected to empowering people (well I’d also say accurate representation of votes in terms of numbers elected but that’s just some countries). For the journey of democracy to move inexorably towards a division into us and them and for it to be used to play on fears of ‘the other’ is a possibility which should chill anyone.
471 - “Greewnich and Lewisham - still counting, Ken leading 60:40 on first preference”
So no first preference votes at all for the other candidates then? What is your source?
So Labour have now lost more than 430 councillors!!! It can’t get any worse for them can it?
473 - Kerry is just one example, and despite his flaws was leading in the polls before being swift-boated.
I very much admire your idealism and it is great that not everyone is cynical about the potential of politics. I reject the politics of fear and demonisation of the ‘other’. You cannot achieve progressive ends in that way.
However, the simple fact is that we must address the world how it is rather than how we want it to be. I don’t object to your criticisms per se of Clinton, but your charactarisation of the race as being between good and evil is too simiplistic in my view.