Spread markets point to a Tory majority of 40
May 9th, 2008
A 24 seat shift to Cameron’s party in just ten days
The spread firm, SportingIndex, has just put up its new general election commons seats spreads following the YouGov poll overnight suggesting that Labour are on just 23% - a massive 26% behind.
When we last looked at this, a week last Tuesday and two days before polling, I posed the question - “Will punters believe in a Tory majority after Thursday?”.
Well they have and the Tory spread has moved from 318-324 seats up to the latest 342-348 seats. So taking the mid-point in the spread the market is suggesting a Tory seat total of 345 seats - or an overall majority of 40.
I think that this is just about the first time ever since spread betting was launched in the UK that gamblers have been prepared to risk money on the Tories getting a workable majority.
MessageSpace Advertising
Looks fair enough. I’d expect their majority to be a bit up on this, at around 60-70 seats, personally.
Looking at Martin Baxter CON 42/ LAB 30 / LIB 19 gives roughly those figures.
293 previous thread - in Ave It mode:
Derby LibDems = Derby County! Doomed to lowest recorded total!!
LOL!!!
Reposted from previous thread as more relevant here…
Hmmm - well the endgame for Labour is clearly afoot. Even though it’s Yougov (and a panel poll) it’s clearly reflecting Labour’s current crisis. And I gather their Parliamentary party are in full headless chicken mode.
Is it recovereable? Yes, but given this is a Labour leadership that p1ssed up the wall 10% poll leads in just seven months then I think they have no chance. No doubt another ‘relaunch’ will be on the cards, when (as Portillo said last night) a period of silence is the best thing. If Labour were to say and do nothing until after the summer, simply got on quietly with sorting out some of the issues and came back in the Autumn with a light-touch programme then they would make progress. But they won’t because Gordon (and most of the frontbench team) just can’t resist tinkering.
As for the Tories - enjoy it while it lasts, but there’s too much self congratulation. They won’t poll 49% at the GE - just as Blair was never going to poll 50+% in 1997. And given from how far back they’re coming from 340+ seats is pretty unrealistic, so there’s money to be made on the spreads.
There is of course now no excuse for the Tories not to win C&N very comfortably - a 20% swing should easily be within their grasp.
O/T US:
Congressman Earl Blumenauer of Portland, Oregon. (Earl co-chairs the Oregon Obama campaign.)
A number of members [of Congress] are now ready to declare their support. My sense is that at least 95 percent of the super delegates know exactly who they are going to vote for, and most will support Barack.
http://www.blueoregon.com/2008/05/this-morning-in.html#more
95% of “most” should do the trick….
When does the Commons rise for the summer hols? Cant be too soon for some methinks.
6 - 22 July apparantly returning on 6 October.
An unholy alliance forming in Sefton?
http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/liverpool-news/regional-news/2008/05/09/sefton-council-in-turmoil-after-leader-and-cabinet-members-quit-64375-20884188/
7 - Further to that the Whitsun recess begins on May 22 and finishes on June 2.
O/T - Councillor elected last week forced to resign.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/beds/bucks/herts/7392023.stm
10. What an idiot.
11 - Quite.
“Conservative and Lib Dem leaders in Scotland have spoken of their serious concern over Wendy Alexander’s policy shift on a referendum on independence.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7391667.stm
13. So Wendy has managed to annoy her allies over devolution, annoy the prime minister, and made herself look stupid and confused. Well, at least she’s been working hard.
14 - Yes she has hardly covered herself in glory.
The idiots were the Local Conservative group that selected him as a candidate.
Brian Monteith (former Conservative, then Independent, MSP) considers that the Scottish Tories and Scottish Lib Dems have been lured into an ‘elephant trap’ by the Labour Party, in the shape of the Calman Commission:
“Labour had concluded that to win a referendum it should be in a position of supporting a new improved Parliament rather than the current model, even if it isn’t mentioned on the ballot paper. So the Commission was born, bringing the naive and unwitting Nicol Stephen and Annabel Goldie into its elephant trap.”
‘Bendy Wendy’s memory problem’
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Bendy-Wendy39s-memory-problem.4067607.jp
16 Shows how low the bar gets set for all parties in selecting council candidates….
“Got a pulse? Then you’re in!”
16. Isn’t it standard practice for all parties to ask prospective candidates (at least for winnable seats) “Is there anything in your past which, if it came to light, would bring the party into disrepute?” ?
United States.
I reported a few hours ago the New Jersey Clinton Super Delegate swicthing to Obama, that is now confirmed, Clinton has picked up one from Pennsylvannia and Obama another from Oregon. Overall 2-0 for Obama.
Also ABC are reporting that Obama has now overtaken Clinton in Supers. They must know something we do not.
Using CNN’s figures I make the difference 6.
In the meantime off to Crewe for a nosey.
More on Northern Rock,yawn! yawn!
This fiasco will bring down the present occupants of number 10 & 11 Downing Street.
The opposition parties should be capable of grinding out a result on this.
A hedge fund and 150,000 small Northern Rock shareholders intensified their push for greater compensation from the government following the nationalisation of the Newcastle-based lender.
SRM Global, the Monaco-based fund which held 11.5% of Northern Rock, has joined the UK Shareholders Association, representing private investors who had a 25% stake, to formally ask the High Court to investigate the legality of the conduct of the government, the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the Financial Services Authority.
Moreover, they are demanding a review of the government’s proposed compensation scheme, criticising it for mishandling the lender’s nationalisation and for acting unfairly.
The Financial Times reports HM Treasury has a firm view the statutory framework for the assessment of compensation, including the assumptions which the valuer will apply, represents ‘a fair and reasonable basis for determining any compensation payable to former shareholders’
16 - I dont think so, unless you expect the selection committees to be omniscient. You will always get the odd silly little boy or girl getting through even the most rigorous process.
3. Yes, no party is likely to poll 49% at a general election and certainly not coming from opposition (Blair might have managed it if he’d called another election in about 1998-9, though I think that even then he’d have struggled despite the polls at the time as it would have looked indulgent).
If the Conservatives are to end up with 345 seats, it implies about 140 gains (can’t remember the exact nominal baseline; it would be 147 gains going off the real 2005 result). That is almost the number of gains that Blair won in 1997, which was itself the most by any party since 1945 and by some way. Question is: is that a realistic possibility? In 1997, there were only a couple of dozen Lib Dems; there are now over sixty. Some of these will undoubtedly return to the Tory column but others look out of reach short of a landslide on the scale of the YouGov poll. That implies that other seats will need to go Coservative that havn’t been blue since 1987 or earlier.
Scotland too could present a problem in terms of possible gains. In 1992 there were eleven Scottish Conservatives; even if Cameron manages to get up to four or five, that still means more to be won elsewhere.
That said, I’ve believed this market to be overpricing the Conservatives for some time, so it’s likely to continue to do so. It looks to me like 270 is an absolute minimum the Conservatives are likely to win (and seventy gains is a lot), 300 is very much on the cards, 320 is achieveable and 350 at the very outside of the range. That’s not to say the market won’t go higher but I would question how realistic such a result would be, short of a Labour split or something equally landscape-shattering.
19. I think that or a similar question was also asked of Jeffrey Archer, though there was rather better evidence available to check out his answer. Essentially, the problem is that it’s like the selection committee asking ‘are you a liar?’. Whether they are or not they will answer ‘no’. The sort of person who has a disreputable past is most likely to be the sort not to be troubled by lying about it.
230. Agreed. What is surely likely is a situation such as Harold Wilson faced in 1964, when his party was clearly the more popular but it had to gain 50+ seats to win a majority. Cameron will probably take the Tories to largest party status or a narrow majority in 2010, then gain a much bigger majority at an election soon afterwards while the opposition is in disarray.
Sorry, that refers to 23.
One for the eurosceptics:
http://euobserver.com/13/26107
The showdown between Britain (ex-Scotland?) and its “European destiny” is now looming into view. It now seems these major new proposals for integration will be enacted with a strongly eurosceptic government in London.
There is no way a Tory government could join a European army. Something like this, therefore, will mark the end of our closer union with Europe; we will then move to an official - rather than de facto - semidetachment from Brussels.
This position will be locked in place with a referendum commitment on all future integration: a Tory government with a big majority might even write this commitment to referendums into the UK Constitution - effectively making our semidetachment irreversible.
Ergo: the UK’s EU future, and the freedom of our country, will be sorted within the next five to ten years, thank God. Then I can rant about something else.
“… in five short days Ms Alexander has boxed Labour, and a Prime Minister who wraps himself in a Union flag, into a countdown to an independence referendum.
It doesn’t matter if her idea of “bring it on” (next week, next year?) is different from Alex Salmond’s or Gordon Brown’s because Ms Alexander has set in motion events that mean a vote will take place and probably at the time of the SNP’s choosing.
Mr Brown, kicked up his Union Jack kilt by the English electorate, had plenty of pain to get over without reminding everyone of his Caledonian credentials.
After devolution, Scotland all but disappeared from the Westminster political radar but Ms Alexander’s intervention brings the constitutional settlement and its attendant baggage - the West Lothian Question, the number of Scots in cabinet, the numerical superiority of the Tory vote in England - crashing back through the portcullis.”
‘Plan that tied Labour into a countdown’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2258410.0.Plan_that_tied_Labour_into_a_countdown.php
28. Stuart, if you talk about something OTHER than the SNP, or Scotland, I will buy you an ice-cream.
23. yep agree strongly. My GE betting strategy is usually to look for over-optimistic spreads like the current one (preferably backed up with over-optimistic rhetoric) and profit from the fact that, come any actual election, the spreads will tighten considerably (even if Con stay this far ahead in the polls their supporters will be jittery on election night). I am only in very lightly at the moment (Con sell) but I expect this bye election will probably make things a lot more favourable.
I am completely party-agnostic but so far this has usually been over-optimism on the Conservative side. I think Con supporters are more likely to gamble on their party and I don’t think it is coincidence that this site has a majority of highly partisan, vociferous Con supporters.
28, question: if Labour backpedalled, could the SNP force a referendum through? If Labour sided with the SNP would they together have enough votes to force it through?
27. Unless Cameron chickens out.
It’s going to require a nice, serious 40+ Tory majority (to overcome absentees, rebels, opposition parties and abstainers) to force through major reform of our relationship with the EU, plus a bold single-minded PM and Foreign Secretary - aka Heath 1970.
We’ll get a taste of just how serious Cameron is about this after next years Euros, when he has to put his money where his mouth is, remove Tory MEPs from the EPP and form a new, successful grouping in the Euro Parliament.
29. But Mr Royale, a strapping lad like me needs to watch his figure! Too much saturated fat and sugar is not wise preparation for the summer hols
re 9 it does annoy me intensely when people keep referring to the late spring bank holday as Whitsun. Harold Wilson removed that link in the 1960s - how long does the change take to permeate through to people. For the record Whitsun will be the day after tomorrow.
Remember: it’s the economy, stupid.
With the UK housing market entering the long-expected meltdown, has the final nail been hammered into the coffin of Browns imaginary, debt-fuelled, “economic miracle”?
“House price crash is here, say City banks
Sam Fleming, Daily Mail
9 May 2008
Britain is now in a full-blown ‘housing crash’, two leading City banks warned in the wake of the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates at 5%.
Analysts at Citigroup and Dresdner Kleinwort said the UK has entered a property slump rivalling that in the US because the supply of mortgage credit has dried up.
‘A serious housing crash is now under way,’ said Citigroup economist Michael Saunders. The shocks hitting Britain from the credit crunch and rising inflation are ‘very severe’…..cont”
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/article.html?in_article_id=441326&in_page_id=8&ct=5
33. Ok. Stick of Broccoli? Scotch Broth? Cabbage?
C’mon… what’s your weapon of choice, help me out here.
32. I think Cameron is sincerely, but not atavistically, eurosceptic. He’s a pragmatic eurosceptic - what is good in Europe he accepts, what is bad - and avoidable - he rejects.
He will quit the EPP, because he would risk a nasty split with his own party if he didn’t. Disastrous leading up to an election.
What he does in power remains to be seen. I believe the will is there to finally reconfigure Britain’s relationship with Brussels - as long as the Tories have a big enough majority, as you say, this will be done.
There won’t be lack of opportunities to make the break. Some idiot europhiles on here are still pretending (or lying) that the Lisbon Treaty is “the end to the process”, there’s “no more desire for further integration”.
This is a great big compost heap of bollox. As we can see from the link above, the Federal EU project will rumble on, inexorably and irressitibly, as soon as Lisbon is ratified - if not before. An EU army, an elected EU president, direct EU wide taxes, a single EU UN seat, harmonised EU laws, all these are being sought ALREADY.
The fun will commence when the irresistible force of EU integration meets the immovable object of a confident Tory government, with a large majority in London.
Gonna be interesting.
35. This article is claptrap. The UK property market slump is not rivalling that in the US.
FWIW The actual vote shares in the English local elections last week were Con 37 Lab 24.5 LibDem 23.5 Others 15 . The approx changes to 2004 ( the councils holding elections are not completely comparable ) were Con + 5 Lab -4 LibDem -2 Others + 1 .
37. I think the Cons will be in disarray on this as soon as they come under real scrutiny on it. The unity on show at the moment is for the sake of current polling success.
31. Q1. No. Q2. Yes
The SLP has NOT committed itself to supporting a referendum - “no blank cheque”. No point in spending time asking about the reasons behind the tactics, probably like all things a complex combination pluc cock-up. However there are 3 possible outs (all of which are quite justifiable and have already been tabled by various members of the SLP).
a. What is the question? (they already oppose the SNP question)
b. Who can vote? (the SNP propose Scottish residents only, including foreigners)
c. What is the definition of a majority? (big area of dispute in previous votes)
In my view there is no way the SLP will support any referendum except 100% on their terms, so as usual this is a load of ****.
Note also its doubtful that everyone in the SNP wants one anyway, so definitely they won’t give into the SLP. Effectively there is no need for their party in a post independence Scotland, and a lot of these local politicos are in it for local power.
On the Tory majority it needs to be one less than the genuine Tory eurosceptic MPs - 50ish?
38 We’re about 12 to 18 months behind the US but our correction will soon rival the US housing bust and will even surpass it, because the UK house price bubble inflated considerably more than that in the US and the bust, which is now underway, will be commensurately larger. And all the huffing and puffing from Brown, Darling, and Flint won’t stop it.
39 Mark, when you say “actual”, I assume that is just a straight read-off of the numbers polled - which takes no account of these elections being very largely in Labour’s back yard. If the county shires had been included too, that would have got to the touted 44% for the Tories?
37. Cameron isn’t going to pull out of the EPP. He’ll obfuscate the matter with a vague promise of a review after the GE. The party, on the verge of a much thirsted after GE win, will fall in behind him. The Conservative party isn’t going to tear itself apart on the cusp of an election winning position over some minor EU administrative matter and Cameron knows it.
40. wishful thinking I’m afraid.
41. In the area I live a house the size I live in (4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, living room etc) was being advertised at around £200-210,000 a few months back. Now they’re down to around £180-185,000, and most of them still aren’t selling.
40. Possibly, but not probably. The Tories are now almost completely eurosceptic. The only philes left are ageing grandees - none of them has much influence.
As long as Cameron makes the right sceptic noises, and does the job on distancing us from Brussels, the next Tory government will hang together on this issue, no problem.
Indeed it is very arguable that Labour and the Lib Dems are now more disunited on things European, than the Tories.
For instance. Does Labour still want to join the euro? Who knows? Do we still have “five tests” to fulfil? Mm? Do you know? Does anyone?
By contrast, the Tory position is clear: No to the euro.
Troubles will come if Cammo tries to sneak through some integration. But I don’t think he will.
40. The European issue has been resolved in the Conservative Party. They are eurosceptic.
37. I hope so.
It will require 2-3 years of negotiation with other EU states, and heads of government, at least one full parliamentary session dominated by it, 6-12 months of parliamentary time (plus!!) in order to debate, amend, repeal, renegotiate and ratify a whole series of amendments to Lisbon, Nice, Amsterdam and, possibly, Maastrict too. Plus all the media sh1te that will thrown at the Conservative government from the BBC, Channel 4, Guardian, Independent, FT, Economist etc. for over 3 years plus every leftie in the land trying to use it as opportunity to paint the Tories (again) as “obsessed” by Europe.
In other words, it will use up muchos political capital.
But… it does need to be done. And if there’s one thing I want a Cameron government to achieve, it is that.
My own view, is that Cameron should conduct all these negotiations very much “under the radar” WRT media attention etc. and try and wrap up all the legal niceities into one amending treaty between the EU and the UK entitled; “The Treaty of London”, which specifies Britains special status as a permenant semi-detached member.
It will be very, VERY tough to pull off. But it is as achievable as the EU rebate and the abolition of the GLC - time-consuming and irritating to those on the other side, but possible.
38. Haha. I’m afraid the UK property market is in a far worse position than the US because our bubble was far bigger.
In the US a loan of only $417,000 (~£210,000) was regarded as a ‘jumbo’ super-size mortgage.
seanT @ 37 — how convinced are you that Cameron is eurosceptic? He doesn’t say much on the issue either way. Then there is the rest of the parliamentary party: the reason there have been Tory splits on Europe is that the party really is divided over Europe.
This solid, eurosceptic, Conservative government you anticipate is pie in the sky.
Cameron has kept shtum and allowed people to project their hopes onto him. It’s a successful strategy. It’s working for Obama too. But don’t count your chickens.
46, 47 - the Conservative position on the EU has been resolved as: “we don’t like where we are very much”. There is, sadly, no agreement at all about where the Conservatives want to go from here. While (for perhaps the first time) I agree with Harry that Ed is indulging in wishful thinking, the incoherence of the Conservative position will be exposed sooner or later.
41. can’t agree with that. The US housing situation has caused the current banking crisis, which in turn is putting pressure on our housikng market. There will be a correction, sure, but we have huge demand for housing on this overpopulated island, jence the well-publicised need to build significantly more houses.
What we are seeing at the moment is the housing market is slowing due to FTBs not able to get mortgages. This has directly stopped/slighly reversed house price growth of the last few years, which _may_ in turn lead to further discounting and slowing.
What they were seeing 12-18 months ago were the first signs that those criminals they indiscriminately lent millions of dollars to, each, for their new luxury mansions weren’t planning on paying any instalments. What they have now is whole neighbourhoods where every other house is standing empty, people choosing to foreclose rather than even try keeping up with the mortgage because it actually makes financial sense, etc. etc.
45. It’s not looking good for us with ageing parents in nice houses.
45 Exactly. Now that much of the credit tap has been turned off the housing market has shrunk to around a half of what it was a year ago, and this trend is continuing. House prices have just gone year-on-year negative on both Halifax and Nationwide indices and appear to be in freefall as this, somewhat crude, graph, from the BBC demonstrates:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7370727.stm
I think the party is now more euro-agnostic than -phile or -sceptic. Arguing about Europe is so ’90s. Cameron will be more Europhile if he becomes PM as he will be inevitable seduced by the prospect of eating langoustines next to Angela Merkel and a semi-pissed Sarkozy.
31. Morris Dancer - “question: if Labour backpedalled, could the SNP force a referendum through? If Labour sided with the SNP would they together have enough votes to force it through?”
Q1: Only if either the Tories or the Lib Dems backed them, or if a lot of MSPs abstained
Q2: Yes
Here is the Scottish Parliament arithmetic, so you can do the sums yourself:
Total members = 129 (128 if you exclude the Presiding Officer):
1. SNP 47
2. Lab 46
3= Con 16 (17 minus Presiding Officer = 16)
3= LD 16
5. Grn 2
6. Ind 1
31. “if Labour backpedalled, could the SNP force a referendum through?”
Unlikely - the Tories and the Lib Dems would like the Calman Commission to finish its job first, so the ‘more powers for Holyrood’ option in a referendum might actually refer to some concrete proposals.
“If Labour sided with the SNP would they together have enough votes to force it through?”
Yes, but could they agree on what the question(s) asked would be?
OK Casino Royale, you win:
“Young adults in Europe deliberately binge on drink and drugs to improve their sex lives, research suggests.”
‘Europeans get drunk ‘to have sex”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7389980.stm
56 - interestingly, if Labour were to abstain, the SNP could push through the referendum vote without the support of any other party.
51. it isn’t wishful thinking inasmuch as I couldn’t really care less what they do on Europe - but my observation is that their current choice is to say as little as possible on the subject, at least until after the election.
The extreme eurosceptic positions being expressed here are not, as far as I know, the stated policies of the Cameron-led Con party. As noted in (50.) Cameron appears to have played along with those holding those views, without actually committing himself.
I think they are likely to try to avoid the issue completely if they can.
43. We shall see. I think he may surprise us by actually doing what he promised. That would certainly make a nice change.
50. I don’t think you can be a rightwinger of Cammo’s generation and not be eurosceptic. It’s like being a Catholic Satanist. Check Boris Johnson: his friend, Bullingdon Club crony, etc - another liberal, posh, capitalist libertarian with very eurosceptic views.
I know where these guys come from, ideologically. I just know. They are my age. I know the social milieu (though I am not part of it). They are genuinely sceptic. But whether they will be able to pull off the feat of officially semi-detaching us from Europe is a very different matter, as Casino eloquently describes above. It will be difficult.
But it is the one thing, above all others, that many Tories desire. They want revenge, and they want their country back.
What is certain is that we will see no more integration under Cammo.
Cammo’s has kept quiet on this issue - very sensibly, in my view - for the precise reason that voters dislike obsessiveness and crankiness, even if they agree with the opinions being expressed.
The Tories need to win the election first, before they can do anything about Europe.
52
Demand is no good without the cash to back it up. Billions in bad debt have to unwind before the credit tap is turned back on again. Won’t be for several years.
We are looking at a reversion of house prices to historical norms IMO which requires nominal reductions from current valuations of at least 30 to 40%. It happened in the nineties and it will happen again. This time we don’t need double digit interest rates, it’s the phenomenal and unprecedented levels of debt that will do the damage this time.
If I was an estate agent or mortgage broker I would be looking around for another job.
52, no it didn’t.
The financial crisis was caused by the repackaging of sub-prime loans, which could’ve come from any source but happen to be mortgages, in Structured Investment Vehicles and Consolidated Debt Obligations in order to get rubbish quality securities Triple A status from the rating agencies.
This effectively was like polishing a lump of dung until it was shiny, and people assumed that because silver and gold are shiny and valuable the shiny dung must be too.
Then they realised the dung was in fact not quite so valuable, and to make matters worse there were little bits of silver and gold scattered about so they couldn’t be sure if the dung was wholly or only half worthless.
The banks refused to trade the goods which made them worthless, hence the attempts at a massive liquidity fund tried by Wall Street Banks.
The writedowns have led to rights issues to improve capitalisation and multi-billion pound losses from Switzerland to the US.
Because the credit markets seized up as banks hoarded cash, LIBOR has shot up above the official base rate and mortgage deals have been pulled.
In short, if the US housing market had crashed for another reason, it wouldn’t affect us that much. Because it crashed due to dodgy securities that have been traded all over the world, it’s had a massive impact.
Sorry if that was a bit waffley.
54. This graph repeats the most common journalistic (i.e. innumerate) mistake when discussing the housing market. If you note the axis you will see that the “freefall” is from large YOY % gains to small YOY % gains.
Inferring anything from that is pretty dangerous.
64. Actually now to negative YoY gains. Prices have been dropping for the last 6 months so the YoY figure will get worse and worse from here as the previous rises fall out of the index.
61. Are you a member of the party? You seem to ascribing to yourself an almost Roger like power of extra sensory perception to divine how people think. I am a member of the party and the same age as DC and I very seldom hear Europe discussed among my peers. We. Don’t. Care.
3 Mark, you wouldn’t be a Forest supporter by any chance, would you?
There have been a few comments (eg 44 Test in previous thread) saying how Plaid have suffered by being in Coalition with Labour in the WA. Just to put the record straight, regarding the recent local elections they increased their number of councillors by 33 to 207 (18% increase). They lost their only majority Council in Gwynedd to a local one-issue pressure group but will continue to run Gwynedd. They are also looking likely to add to this with control of Ceredigion & Caerffili councils as well as becoming junior partners in Cardiff, Wrexham and maybe 5 or 6 more councils!
That does not sound like a problem to me.
63. The sub-prime loans _could_ have come from any source, but they didn’t - they came from a very specific source. The US housing market. We are seeing knock-on effects, but do not have the same fundamental problems.
62. Demand will though, ensure that we do not see the same situation here as the US. I don’t doubt that there will be something of a housing downturn.
Polls taken in the wake of some disaSter, over react, having said that, things look black for Labour, the curse of the third term strikes again.
61
I do hope seant, I’ll be reading of your arrest on the first of the month when as a good libertarian, you’ll be leading the resistance too, ‘Boris the Bolshevik’s’ authoritarian decision to ban alcohol on London Transport.
You may even feature on the television news, the sight of you being dragged, kicking and screaming from a tube train, clutching a bottle of, ‘St Austell’s Best Bitter’ is something I’ll treasure.
65. You are right but that isn’t what the graph shows, nor is it necessarily an unhealthy sign that a cycical market that has had a few good years may now have some bad ones.
64 I said the graph was “somewhat crude” however I didn’t hear many complaints from the various vested interests when it showed house prices on a seemingly inexorable ride upwards
Seriously though, why try to keep on ramping the UK housing market with all that simplistic demand/supply nonsense? A UK house price crash is now a done deal. Ask Miles Shipside of Rightmove amongst others. It’s all around us.
Even here in the, relatively prosperous, and “sought-after” Cotswolds the market has ground to a halt. Prices are being slashed but still next to nothing is selling. One estate agency revealed the other day that around half that go sold subject to contract are now falling through as the wannabe buyers can’t get the finance. The tap won’t be turned on for a long time yet. The cycle has turned with a vengeance.
63 - Indeed, plus you have to factor in the UK’s large BTL market which is suffering. The high LTV’s that were until recently common. In a situation like the current one the wise person discounts the fundamentals more than usual as sentiment will be the key. If people feel that things are going to get worse they have a strange way of contriving to give it effect. Another thing to factor in is the major differences in tax structure that impact on the affordability of mortgage payments and we now have the approaching tidal wave of the spiralling oil price. The accelarating oil price is probably going to wreak havoc on disposable incomes and lead to mortgage defaults which will merge into the credit crunch narrative and general sentiment issues to create a comprehensive nightmare for the Treasury.
71. I agree that it’s not an unhealthy sign that the credit madness has come to an end but you seem deluded about just how bad these years will be for the housing market.
Lie-to-buy i.e. self-cert mortgages became endemic in the UK over the last few years.
63, the source is irrelevent. In fact, had the loans been kept as such and not wrapped up in shiny tinfoil as SIVs and CDOs the problem may not have occurred.
The problem was that they were packaged as red-hot securities when in fact they were just rubbish.
75, I meant 69. Christ, I’m getting all the numbers wrong today.
59. antifrank - “… if Labour were to abstain, the SNP could push through the referendum vote without the support of any other party.”
If Alexander (or whoever their leader then is) tried to whip their 46 MSPs into an abstention, then I suspect there would be several rebels, going both ways: some backing the SNP and some voting against. This is going to get messier before it gets clearer.
any advance on £10.50>>??
http://dizzythinks.net/
67 “Mark, you wouldn’t be a Forest supporter by any chance, would you?”
Does it show?!?!
Slightly sad that Leicester went down - all those Forest/Derby/Leicester games would have been great value.
But only slightly sad!
67 “Mark, you wouldn’t be a Forest supporter by any chance, would you?”
Does it show?!?!
Slightly sad that Leicester went down - all those Forest/Derby/Leicester games would have been great value.
But only slightly sad!
80/81 Refereee - I did not post that twice!!
72. The “UK housing market” is made up of myriad sub-markets, and those buying a 4 bed house in the “sought-after” Cotswolds are not the same as those looking for a flat in London for their new job. The national stats say, tiny YOY decrease (first time in years), and that means that for every anecdotal about prices in your area being slashed, there will be somewhere else where they are still rising.
The reason there weren’t any complaints from “vested interests” when prices were rising is that they were busy putting their money where their mouths were. For every market there is always a group of doom-mongers saying the market is on the verge of a crash - but very few consistently make money out of this viewpoint.
Superdelegate Congressman Peter DeFazio of Oregon has endorsed Obama :
http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1210312510265440.xml&coll=7
77 “Christ, I’m getting all the numbers wrong today.”
Morris Dancer, you are Gordon Brown and I claim my fiver….
67. I’ve actually worked with your new Tory Mayor of London - now the most senior and powerful elected Tory in the land. I know for a fact his euroscepticism is sincere and profound.
I also know lots of rightwing journalists, who make up the chattering wing of the Tory party - they are also sincerely sceptic.
I don’t doubt that for those rude mechanicals toiling away in the engine room of the party, like yourself, the direction of the ship seems much less important than how to get those gaskets greased.
That doesn’t mean the ship ain’t sailing west north west.
74. In times of uncertainty, most will just sit tight unless they need to move.
Petrol prices may and may not come into it - at the end of the day I think most people would cut down buying petrol to pay the mortgage rather than vice versa.
78 - I have no doubt that you are right about that. My point was more that the issue could be settled even without Labour support of a referendum if Wendy Alexander completed her imitation of Nick Clegg’s approach to a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, regardless of how the other MSPs voted.
re 23. David - it’s not often that I disagree with you but I do not understand your logic. The critical thing is what the projected vote shares are now - not what this would mean in historical terms. Clearly YouGov’s 26% is a reaction to last week and it will fall-off a bit. But I cannot see it, certainly in the short-term, reverting to vote shares that have the Tories at anything other than a majority.
Remember the golden polling rule - the most accurate survey when tested against real results over two decades has been the one showing Labour in the least favourable position.
Union Superdelegate John Gage has endorsed Obama :
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/wire/sns-ap-obama-union,1,2397754.story
74. Of course - most people will sit tight. Most people will be ok. Most people will keep paying their huge mortgage because, after all, that’s the price they paid and they can afford it.
None of this will stop the value of their house from crashing.
85, what an insult!
I can’t be Gordon Brown, I just accurately detailed the recent events that caused the credit crunch.
If I were Gordon Brown I’d be telling you how the fundamentals are sound.
Incidentally, it was just cruel of Mike to add another post so that now my correcting post corrects the wrong one:p
72 - like that financial planner on house price crash website who sometimes appears on tv - he’s been calling a crash since early 2002 and he was so sure that he sold his house and started renting back then - what a fool he must feel now!
People who know Cameron well have confirmed to me he is solidly anti-EU integration privately (although not against being in the EU). I guarantee he would take a very tough negotiating position in future talks with the institution. The UK actually has a lot of power in this: eurocrats get nervous enough when Poland kicks up a fuss. If Britain were to threaten to do that, we would have a lot of leverage.
76. the source is obviously highly relevant. You are pressing the case that the US and UK housing markets are in a similar state, but the fact one (and only one) of them is the root cause of global financial turmoil is irrelevant?
83 I wondered how long it would be before the old “doom-monger” tag got trotted out. How predictable
It’s a credit crunch, and grossly over-inflated asset bubbles don’t survive long in credit crunches. Get over it, move on, I hear tulips are going to be the next big thing.
86. While I do think Johnson is sincerely europhilic, you need to take his views with a pinch of salt. He can convince himself of anything when he decides to strike a position, and then convince himself of the other position a few months later.
87 - Agreed, but if the general direction of travel is backwards one needs to be doing something simply to stand still. Oil prices have an impact greater than simply the pump price. It will feed into higher fuel costs across the spectrum, it will increase the cost of cargo and consequently the price of food (already increasing of its own accord). Finally the idea that fuel is largely a luxury that can be snipped out of the household budget is delusional, for many it is necessary to be mobile and therefore necessary to run a car.
93. I had already been reminded of him by the tone of this discussion! There’s one born every minute!
69 Plaid aren’t about to go into coallition in Cardiff. The new Plaid group leader and the Lib Dem leader don’t get on in the least.
Superdelegate Congressman Chris Carney of Pennsylvania endorses Hillary :
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/representative-chris-carney-endorses.html
99. There’s one born every minute, but unfortunately even if they all think property is still a good investment, the banks aren’t willing to give them the money anymore. It’s game over.
98. You’re right but it makes sense to separate them out somewhat.
Oil is pretty volatile and the bubble could easily burst.
95 - Look at a map the size of the housing market is reflective of the size of the country. There would never be any percentage in packaging up UK mortgages as the values would never be sufficiently large.
92 “I can’t be Gordon Brown, I just accurately detailed the recent events that caused the credit crunch.”
That does raise the fascinating question: surely Gordon must know the fundamental reasons for the credit crunch (and his part in it) - but is he just crap at distancing himself from the blame? Or does he genuinely think that he was the most magnificent Chancellor ever and despite a little difficulty over in the US, the good folks of Britain should be showing their gratitude by giving him another five years? I suppose the answer to that might determine whether he is in No. 10 for weeks or a couple more years. If the latter, the party better ditch him now; if the former, they better get him the best team of excuse-coaches that a bankrupt party can buy.
95 76
The situations of the UK and US housing markets are different. In the US there is a large stock of unsold new homes plus empty secondhand ones equivalent iird to about 10 months supply … and new houses are still being built.
But any suggestion that the UK is going to be exempt is only driven by financial illiteracy. One look at the UK house building and new build applications says it all. Backed by McCarthy &Stone today announcing they are making 10% of their workforce redundant cos their clients - the retired and well off… cannot sell their own homes to buy a McCarthy one.
As for reciting year over year statistics to prove a trend, any one who has been is business knows monthly or quarterly are best.. Cos trends reverse quickly.
And the monthly trends say house prices down big style.
If the BOE were semi competent they would cut UK interest rates now. They are not so it’s too little too late.
94. And of course we have the other leaders of the Tory party, besides Cameron:
George Osborne, who describes himself officially as “a social and economic liberal who also happens to be an Eurosceptic.”
William Hague, who is so eurosceptic he tried to fight an entire campaign on the issue - and lost.
David Davies, who has spoken of “ending the ratchet effect of current EU changes, which make them irreversible”. In his view, the transfer of powers should be reversible.
Then there’s Liam Fox, who has come out and said “we should change the UK’s entire relationship with the EU.”
Those are the four most senior Tories, other than Cameron: all quite strongly eurosceptic.
And Brussels-bashing Bozza is now in power in London.
Anyone who thinks the Tory party is suddenly going to roll over and be europhile when it reaches government, I reckon, deluding themselves.
Anyway, off out into the sun now. Hooray.
95, you said “The US housing situation has caused the current banking crisis”
which it hasn’t. The banks operating in the US using sub-primes in SIVs and CDOs caused it. It’s a financially sourced crisis not one founded in building materials, union problems or supply and demand issues.
6/7: No, the summer recess starts at the end of July (25th?). The Commons sits normally up to then (apart from the week starting May 26).
Housing: I’ve no more insight into the future of house prices than anyone else, but the non-party briefing from the Commons library suggests that negative equity will be less common than in previous house price falls, because anyone who’s owned their house for a few years is sitting on a large paper gain, so will simply have a smaller paper gain. The position is obviously much more serious for anyone who recently bought on a 100%+ mortgage, and there is a general difficulty in getting mortgages for first-time buyers at the moment, for the reasons outlined by Morris Dancer. Whether the injection of liquidity by the BoE will change that quickly remains to be seen.
Matt J, the banks will of course still lend to secure buyers who can afford it, at historically reasonable rates too. That doesn’t mean that property looks like a “good investment” now, but for a crash on the scale of the one unfolding in some parts of the US right now, we need to see demand dropping so much that houses are standing empty.
Meanwhile we are told that the UK desperately needs 3 million new houses by 2015 or whatever it is.
108 “Anyway, off out into the sun now. Hooray.”
Here in central London, now on the eighth straight day of glorious spring weather since the voters picked Boris….
105. Using month-on-month data to read the housing market would be madness, it is highly seasonal.
110
Nothing nicer than sitting on the top of an open air bus, sipping a can of ice cold lager: enjoy!
112 - Yes but it has been banned!
108 “The position is obviously much more serious for anyone who recently bought on a 100%+ mortgage”
Remind me again, Nick - which mortgage provider was until recently the largest source of such mortgages? And who now owns that provider?
112 - That is presumably still to remain legal, since the open air buses are private transport rather than public transport.
111, right, although year-on-year the price has fallen, I think.
What’s interesting about the UK versus US in this is that we have a better supply-demand situation to keep prices up, but they have far more wiggle room for fiscal stimulus (tax cuts and rebates and the like).
Per capita, I think I’m right in saying we’re more heavily indebted than Americans, which, coupled with commodity price rises, will make it more difficult for us to keep pace with rising mortgage repayments.
112-113 Are you pair playing as a tag-team?!?
Nick Clegg wants us to bomb Burma.
With love.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7392493.stm
[289, last thread] - Mike mentioned John Denham more than once at the time of speculation about who else might be Labour leader. In a very positive light if I remember correctly. He could be Jowell’s counterpart.
114, unfair to criticise Labour for Rock’s previous misdemeanours.
Instead you should criticise Labour for Darling’s “Pretty please pass on interest rate cuts to customers and disregard the higher cost of borrowing caused by higher LIBOR so people stop thinking Labour can’t understand how economics work” plea, when Northern Rock has refused to pass on the cut to its customers.
116. It will be interesting to see if their fiscal stimulus package actually does anything though. I’d rather be in our position.
We are more indebted per capita than they are, but I think they have much more of a problem with the ones who are in debt also being the ones who can’t pay it back. Their unemployment figures are in the process of going through the proverbial roof, for example.
In the UK, we all tend to have some debts, either a mortgage or a few credit cards or whatever, and some of that will have to be reined in.
the uk housing market is bound to collapse, why do you think NRock went bust? It went bust because it has a toxic book of high LTV and liar loan portfolio at the top of the market. the other banks knew it and stopped lending to it just like they are now not lending to anyone other than prime credits. you have to think that 30-40% falls are likely given whats happened in other bubble housing markets.
120 “unfair to criticise Labour for Rock’s previous misdemeanours.”
On whose watch and under whose regulatory system did NR fail? I remain of the view that the NR Board took unreasonable risks on the back of expectation that a Labour Government could not allow this bastion of the North-east to fail; that the Govt. would prop them up if they got out of their depth.
[21] - Northern Rock may yet account for a ministerial head, but not because of disgruntled investors. There was a lot of Tory huffing and puffing over similar moves by Railtrack small investors, and I see little reason to suppose there will be any difference this time around.
Being criticised by a hedge fund is hardly likely to be wounding either.
113
I know heartbreaking isn’t it, ‘Boris the Blue Meanie’ the first Tory with any power since ‘97, his first act! is to ban something.
If Ken had done that, the Blue Harpies on this site, would have had a screaming fit, led by our own, ‘Tamar Wetback’ the, ‘Beast of Bodmin Moor’ Mr. Seant! What do we get, not a bloody word of condemnation, what a load of f***ing hypocrites.
121, I take it you mean you’d rather be in our position generally, and are not referring specifically to our relative fiscal positions?
Unemployment figures here are nonsense. There are millions ‘incapacitated’ and hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of jobs are taken foreigners. We can say we have good employment, but we can’t say we have good British employment. [Not party political, both sides enjoy using disability to ease up the unemployment stats].
123, yeah, you’re right. I do keep forgetting about the early days of Blair. I wasn’t into politics then, mostly because I was busy being a moody teenager. As opposed to a moody adult:p
SPIN are now quoting:
Cons: 344-350
Lab: 231-237
SF
Cons: 340-347
Lab: 239-246
Why are SPIN still doing the labour quasi-arb?
125 - I have no problem with banning that which is unacceptable.
126. I think our employment situation is pretty good, I’m sure there are subtleties in the way the figures are calculated, but put it this way: unemployment is not currently a national issue. In the 70s, 80s, 90s it was a major national issue.
In the US they are shedding hundreds of thousands of jobs per month, and they didn’t exactly start in a great position.
[108] - “..the non-party briefing from the Commons library suggests that negative equity will be less common than in previous house price falls, because anyone who’s owned their house for a few years is sitting on a large paper gain, so will simply have a smaller paper gain.”
Well, that all depends on how far prices fall, doesn’t it?
Past experience indicates that, as well as the economic fundamentals, psychology is important, and just as the market clearly swung too high, it is likely to overshoot any correction.
Things may even be worse than during previous cycles, because [some incredibly foolish] people have increased the size of their mortgage to spend money as prices increased. That reduces the size of the “paper gain” they can afford to lose before they are in serious difficulties if they need to move, remortgage, etc.
OT
So does anyone think Labour might actually WIN Crewe & Nantwich?
I’ve been back Labour at these prices, I’m pondering whether the “CON GAIN EVERYTHING” crowd on here are being overdismissive of Labour’s prospects.
Thoughts?
119 Yes Denham is interesting. Opposed Iraq war, represents Southern constituency, no obvious association with any recent disasters, a definite possibility if (or rather when) Gordon is disposed of.
128
Sweet!!
Define unacceptable??
Is that anything a Tory doesn’t agree with?
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 43% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 44% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 42% .. Obama 50%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
129, millions of people are more than subtleties, I think.
Overall, I agree with you. Our situation is not as bad as America’s. However, it remains to be seen whether the softly softly approach of the Bank of England has in fact just been too little too late, or prudent.
132
Denham no chance, unless they find him a safer seat!
136, are sitting MPs allowed to up sticks and go to a safer seat?
Denham’s certainly one of Labour’s better performers.
133 - Clearly not. I do however think that treating tube carriages, or buses (bendy or otherwise) as pubs on wheels is unacceptable.
138 et al - once again… drinking on an open top bus will remain legal, since the open top buses are private ventures (ie not under TfL). Boris Johnson’s ban is only in relation to public transport.
138
Boris Johnson, a man whose made a career out of attacking, ‘Political Correctness’ the, ‘Nanny State’ etc. is now, ‘Boris the Banman’ ironic don’t you think?
Or are you just a sycophant?
134 Further. From the link Rasmussen states they will shortly be dropping the Democrat Primary Tracker on account of Obama’s impending victory.
139
For now!!
140. I didn’t realise banning one thing made him a banman. That line reminds me of the lame bojo noshow tagline that guardianistas tried to attach to him during the campaign.
53:
Too much for one off-topic post to even begin to point out in how many ways, and how much, you are wrong (many, and a lot), but look here
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk
and learn.
Post 42 is an example of nail and head in perfect harmony.
142. Unless he changes the bylaws he can’t do much else.
136 I am working on the assumption that Gordon goes before the election. Unless there is a dramatic and unexpected improvement in Labour’s position I think he’ll be gone by the Autumn.
[27] - One idle question that arises from that is which language they’d (by which I mean the Germans, French and whoever else they can convince to join in) choose to use for operational purposes.
Would it be English?
140 - I am not a sycophant at all, but the nanny state banners tend to ban a person from doing something to help that person. This is about somthing slightly different namely ensuring that one persons freedom doesn’t restrict anothers.
The dem race is over, that said, I want to see how Obama will win in November given his absolute 0 chance in Florida, Ohio. He will have to get Missouri and Colarado or something.
Secondly, his VP slot is important, so is McCains - If its Romney, repubicans could get Michigan and close is Mass.
141.
Although I’d give Clinton only a 15% chance at the moment, this could potentially be a ‘Dewey beats Truman’ moment.
142 - since that was your original point at 112, it does rather defeat the argument that you are trying to construct.
129. You are talking rot, the USA has been a job creation power house since the mid nineties. The USA was creating more jobs every month then the entire EU (minus the UK) had done for ten years.
Unemployment rose with the fall out of the techboom, and the collapse of manufacturing in the West, but it started to go down again, despite the doom and gloom, the American economy is strong and resilient, with very strong economic growth.
The biggest problem for Americans, is the same as for us, they keep electing people who are keen to spend other peoples money.
The public finances are in a mess, but in the scheme of things, its like a puppy crapping over your nice new rug, but the screw up over here, is more akin to an elephant style dropping all over the furniture.
146 - No chance of Gord going prior to the election. Labour would be flayed alive in consequence and the distended pelt displayed in a prominent public place.
20 - I think Obama has now overtaken Clinton in Senators and Congressmen but is still slightly behind in superdelegates overall.
But give it a day or or two …
152. The US economy is fundamentally strong, but the political system is too fractured to address coming problems.
On another topic, the case for Jim Webb:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obama_should_pick_webb_for_run.html
148
So give us a list, of all those things which you feel could, ‘Liberate others’ if they were banned: nose picking perhaps?
153: James, if things stay the way they are or get worse is being ‘flayed alive in consequence and the distended pelt displayed in a prominent public place’ the worse option?
A new leader just before the summer, plus a lot of populism, then an autumn election won’t give them a win but might produce a hung parliament.
133
‘Define unacceptable??’
Boring old lefties like you.
132 I can see your logic. In fact Denham unlike say Miliband (safe seat)Johnson (safe seat)and others might as well go for it. That’s why he could do for Brown last weeks results struck right at his jugular his constituency. Surely there is no way Brown can intimdate him now
Excellent article about the British Tories in the New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/opinion/09brooks.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
153 Possibly. But the Tories in the last Parliament changed their leader twice, and the Lib dems have done it twice in this one. In both cases the electoral effect was positive (a bit debatable for the LDs perhaps, but certainly no public flaying).
157 - The only clean way to do this would be to impose a second unelected leader on the party and the country. Then if they went for an Autumn election I think that they would be heavily defeated.
150 Matthew. 15% chance !!!!
… it’s the way you tell em …. that dead pan delivery !!!!
Meanwhile one of Hillary biggest cheerleaders, The New York Times, says it’s time to go :
“The United States needs a clean break from eight catastrophic years of George W. Bush. And so far, Senator John McCain is shaping up as Bush the Sequel — neverending war in Iraq, tax cuts for the rich while the middle class struggles, courts packed with right-wing activists intent on undoing decades of progress in civil rights, civil liberties and other vital areas.
We endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and we know that she has a major contribution to make. But instead of discussing her strong ideas, Mrs. Clinton claimed in an interview with USA Today that she would be the better nominee because a recent poll showed that “Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.” She added: “There’s a pattern emerging here.”
Yes, there is a pattern — a familiar and unpleasant one. It is up to Mrs. Clinton to change it if she hopes to have any shot at winning the nomination or preserving her integrity and her influence if she loses.”
Not only is Boris a banman!
Here’s Cameron admitting his conversion to Socialism!!
He concedes that traditional centre-left ideas, such as income redistribution or state-run programmes, did relieve poverty but insists they have run their course.
The Tory leader argues that the progressive end – making British poverty history – is now best achieved by conservative means, and this means addressing the causes of poverty rather than just the symptoms. He claims: “It is the Conservative Party that is the champion of progressive ideals in Britain today
‘Tough on poverty and tough on the cuases of poverty’ hmmmm wonder where he got that from?
We all know that GB couldn’t be bothered to turn up to Gwyneth Dunwoody’s funeral yesterday, but does anyone know whether he turned up on his own a few hours later?
156 - Oh please. Grow up. We have a philosophical difference. I believe that for the proper functioning of society that we all need to moderate our behaviour so our freedom doesn’t impinge on others. If we refuse then the law/authorities should intervene to preserve the good functioning of our society. You believe something else clearly.
161 - The luxury of not being in government.
161 - no one seriously thought either the Conservatives would get elected in 2005 or thinks that the Lib Dems will march to power at the next election.
166. Someone sucking down a can of Tennants Extra on the Circle Line doesn’t impinge my freedom at all. Unless they start to harass or vomit on me and there are already ample laws for that circumstance. So Boris’ booze ban is a ridiculous piece of illiberal, nanny state bullsh!t that shreds his reputation as a soi disant liberterian.
161, also, both Clegg and Cameron were elected, not crowned.
Cameron’s election (regardless of whether you thought he was the right man) was a good example of how to conduct a leadership contest.
Clegg and Huhne’s hissyfit, coupled with the postal strike interfering with voting, was rather clumsy.
Brown’s coronation may go down as one of the bizarrest events in recent years. Uncontested, he rose to the leadership only to become the finest electoral asset the Tories have ever had.
168 But that doesn’t alter the argument that second change of leader could well have a positive electoral effect. Given Labour’s current polling position and the known views of Labour supporters about Brown it is difficult to argue that there is a downside! All new leaders have a honeymoon period - I can’t think of any exceptions - and a new Labour leader would not be any different.
162: They would be defeated, but that’s what will happen anyway, but a new leader who can perform well during the campaign and doesn’t have any baggage might give Labour a good defeat.
Two more years of increasing in fighting, more ‘worst poll results ever’, two more disastrous local elections, and Ed Balls’ advice and it’ll be at least a decade before we see Labour in again.
169 - surely it bolsters his reputation as a “soi disant liberterian (sic)”. What it doesn’t do is help his reputation as an *actual* libertarian.
171 - I wouldnt be so sure that a new leader would get a honeymoon and it woudl be dangerous to test the theory. The downside is that probable doom would transform itself into certain doom.
158
Don’t knock lefties dear! they’ve taken over your party!!
175 -
So does anyone think Labour might actually WIN Crewe & Nantwich?
I’ve been back Labour at these prices, I’m pondering whether the “CON GAIN EVERYTHING” crowd on here are being overdismissive of Labour’s prospects.
Thoughts?
144. that site is a tragi-comical compilation of hysterical views, run (as mentioned earlier) by a guy who sold his house in 2002.
Ironically the forums are also dominated by speculators ramping far more ridiculous investments such as gold based on doomsday scenarios.
169 - it was a pre-election commitment:
http://boris4boroughs.net/news/april/Boris_bans_alcohol_from_the_Tube.php
If you hated it that much, you shouldn’t have voted for him. But who knows, you might not have done anyway.
177 - Labour won’t win Crewe.
174 And the other argument is that MPs with marginal seats facing certain defeat have nothing to lose. Their calculation will be that if they keep Gordon they are certain to lose, but if they dump him there may be a chance, however small, that they will be saved. Of course there is also a chance they will lose by a bigger margin but the size of their losing majority is not important to them - all that weighs in their consideration is the possibility of winning. Unless something changes for Gordon pretty soon I think MPs making this kind of calculation are going to move more and more toward a position of wanting him out PDQ.
177
Unwind your position is what I’d do.
I predict con gain with 2300 maj.
181. nickc. I have noticed that the people on this blog calling for Brown to be replaced are mainly Labour supporters or punters who have taken a view that he will go and have bet accordingly. The Tories are not clamouring for him to go. Says it all really.
131. Just ask yourself :
Can Labour (at 23% in the polls) keep more than 14000 of their voters from the last election?
Can the Tories (at 49% in the polls) poll less than the 14000 voters they got at the last election?
181 - I doubt it, they will be too aware of the lessons regarding parties that go to war with themselves.
179
That isn’t the point!
If you are a, ‘boring ‘ol lefty authoritarian’ like what I am, then its ok to ban things. I’m with Lenin on this one, ‘Liberty is a very precious thing and like all precious things its best to ration it’
This sight is stuffed with libertarians, who scream, ‘Blue murder’ everytime Nu-Labour banned anything. ‘Boris the Blue Meanie’ bans something and they’re full of praise for it!
Seant! quick to attack the left! rather than criticise, his one time employer Boris Johnson, disappears down a pastie mine and is even now sitting there in the dark fiddling with his Joan the Wad!
Sorry site!
Just what is the matter with these NuLabour reprobates??
He should be deselected without fail!
Are you listening Gord???????
‘Voters to blame if Boris Johnson mishandles London terror attack’ - MP
Published by Jon Land for 24dash.com in Local Government on Friday 9th May 2008 - 1:39pm
‘Voters to blame if Boris Johnson mishandles London terror attack’ - MP
Londoners should blame themselves if Boris Johnson mishandles the aftermath of a terrorist attack on the capital, a Labour MP suggested today.
Nottingham North MP Graham Allen insisted voters were wrong to elect the Tory as mayor last week because he could not organise “a cup of tea”.
“Boris Johnson the mayor of a big city? I wouldn’t send him out for a cup of tea, frankly,” Mr Allen told BBC Radio Nottingham.
“I hope it doesn’t happen, but the first time there is a disaster or a terrible bombing or explosion in London, I hope those people will think again about what they actually did last week.”
Mr Allen later said he stood by his comments, but stressed he “hoped very much nothing of that sort (a terrorist attack) does happen”.
“It was a live interview,” he added.
A spokeswoman for the Mayor said: “These irresponsible comments are not worthy of a response.”
178:
There’s some of that I admit, quite entertaining. But the force of logic from more serious posters is pretty overhwelming IMHO.
Your comments about “demand” and “overpopulated small island” blah blah are pretty comprehensively shredded on there for example for the risible and utterly irrelevant nonsense that they are. Comments like no. 40 also suggest you aren’t that prescient.
Ah well we will see won’t we.
Is there a spread bet I can make on house prices in say 3 years time? I might even lose my gambling virginity and bet on prices being 40% down or more.
177. I’m not convinced on the tories at Crewe either, particularly with a Dunwoody candidate.
As a tory myself i’m betting £10 on labour, so either way i’m happy.
Europeans are the LEAST of your worries! Look to the west - the southwest - for that is from whence the danger threatens . . .
Mounting evidence of that Mebyon Kernow is penetrating other parties and using its hidden influence to further the sinister goal of worldwide domination via global imposition of the Greater Cornish Co-Prosperity Sphere.
Question: is David Cameron taking Cornish lessons and investing the family fortune in dubious tin mining stocks on the notorious St. Ives exchange?
Question: did a planted, tainted bottle of Cornish spring water begin Charles Kennedy’s downfall?
Question: was Gordon Brown’s maternal great-grandmother a pastie?
184) But you’re assuming a national swing for a by-election?
Have people completely discounted the prospect that we might get a rally-round of Labour support for the Dunwoody that’s just lost her mother in a fairly safe Labour seat?
I think there are a LOT of pro-tory assumptions being made that are in all honesty, guesswork.
183 Indeed it does. I am sure the vast majority of Tories want him to stay - just as Labour wanted Major to stay as Tory leader in 1995 - for the same reason that the vast majority of Labour supporters want him to go. I am in the latter category, and I actually believe that Labour could retrieve quite a lot of the losses of the past year if he went. We are not riven by ideological splits, asd the Tories were in the 1990s, and could easily come together under any of a number of possible leaders. It might be asking a lot to win another majority, but a new leader should be able to get us back in to HP territory.
[186] - That’s not entirely true. Most of the Tories on here also opposed the liberalisation of opening hours for licensed premises.
Tories obviously don’t drink as much as the left. I can only see this gap widening in the years to come..
192, that’s certainly possible, but so is a dynasty backlash.
177 I’ve put money on Labour in C&N. Better than 3/1 is value IMHO, but I’m not risking much.
189. “Is there a spread bet I can make on house prices in say 3 years time? I might even lose my gambling virginity and bet on prices being 40% down or more.”
Then sell your house, and buy it back in 3 years time.
Or were you thinking of smaller stakes?
186 - I am distrustful of banning things. For example, while I *really* dislike fireworks and think them dangerous, I believe that they should be on sale to adults who wish to use them. I regard it as absurd that aspirin should be banned from sale in packets above a given size, since if people want to commit suicide by an excruciating method, that is their choice.
I am not sure about banning alcohol on public transport (not least because I don’t use it much). The reasons given in Boris’s flyer have some force, and it’s rare for a drinker on the tube to occupy just one seat. Banning drinking on the tube strikes me, incidentally, as a very New Labour thing to do, and candidly I’m surprised that Ken Livingstone hadn’t already done it.
But in any case, any doubts I may have must yield to the fact that Boris made it an election commitment. Having done so, he should follow it through. He has. It is a small step to restore confidence in the electoral process, confidence that has been badly damaged by the cavalier approach taken by both Labour and the Lib Dems on the referendum on the EU treaty. It bodes well for Boris’s tenure.
189. I don’t know how you can take, as your evidence of a coming UK house price crash, a site that by definition is for discussion of a UK house price crash, and by your admission contains a load of hysterical nonsense. Especially when that site has been saying that for the last 6 years.
If you want to bet on house prices, there are markets on spreadfair for both UK and London. December 2010 the spread is around 157k average down from roughly 200k now. In my opinion this is extremely pessimistic, but then you have to ask yourself what sort of person would be playing this market - either a pessimist or someone hedging their paper gains and losses I guess.
186. I think you fail to understand libertarianism. It doesn’t mean not banning anything, it means only ban things when it unfairly impinges on other’s liberty. Banning murder is the clearest example, and most British libertarians would also accept bans on explosives and machine guns. Libertarians also accept the freedom for owner’s of private property to bring in their own rules: we wouldn’t oppose a posh restaurant demanding that everyone should wear good shoes for example. Boris’ ban on alcohol on the tube fits this. A service is being offered to me if I agree to certain conditions - if I want to drink I can go elsewhere, like a pub. It’s also quite a sensible condition as most drinking on public transport is done by loud louts, who are then difficult to control. They cause a greater disruption of liberty than the impingement on the few respectable people that choose to have one drink on the ride.
Heh.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/09/harrietharman.labour
I’m surprised that Mike hasn’t picked up on this polling result: (unless I missed it in an earlier thread?)
Today’s YouGov figures suggest that Labour would do worse under another leader.
With Tony Blair in charge, their support would be down 3%, Jack Straw down 4%, David Miliband down 4%, Alan Johnson down 4%, James Purnell down 5%, Harriet Harman down 10% and Ed Balls down 10%.
194. Not all of us opposed it. Boris didn’t either.
192, 195 And so is a backlash against carpetbaggers.
Tamsin was not born nor brought up in C&N. She lives several hundred miles away. She has no connection with C&N
I personally wouldn’t vote for a candidate who has no connection with my constituency.
177. You are going to lose your money.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTrMB5_YGrQ watch this and see if you think gordon can survive more than a few weeks. is fern britten the new paxman?
201,
“Harriet Harman: ‘I absolutely do not accept that we’re in the same situation as the Major government was.’ ”
Quite. Major had a series of big beasts who could’ve taken over. As Boulton said, the present Cabinet is stuffed to bursting with pygmies and youngsters.
There does not appear to be any serious policy divide within Labour… which is a bad thing. They’re united in mediocrity. There can’t be a fresh start without division which is why they’re doomed.
If somebody with prestige and a clear difference to Brown stepped forward they could take over and steer the ship in a new direction. But they all supported his ascension and his policy programme. They’re lumbered with a millstone around their collective dangly parts.
203. Indeed. But look at St.Helens - there are still places where people will vote for anything in the right colour rosette, carpetbagger, opportunist, sycophany or idiot (or in some cases all of the previous).
198 I travel on London Transport daily and I quite often see people with a cold beer - I’ll probably see one on the way home tonight. It’s very common, and becoming more so (partly due to Poles I think!). But annoying drunks are rare - less frequent than in the days of the meths drinkers IMO - and in any case this kind of people are not going to give a toss about Boris and his ban. I assume that no one will take any notice of it and it will be quitely forgotten about having served its true purpose which of course is positive headlines in the Evening Standard.
200. The alcohol ban will be pretty annoying to a lot of people who want to take a drink on the tube and, more importantly, cannot possibly improve the liberty of tube travellers.
If these drinkers are “difficult to control” then who on earth is going to stop them drinking, and how on earth are they going to do so?
If these drinkers are really so bad, they are surely committing other offences besides the drinking.
+ drinking on the tube (harmless and newly banned) is not the same thing as being drunk on the tube (potential danger, far more common, and not banned).
208. agree with this. No doubt someone will use it as evidence that Poles are a bad influence…
196) Thanks Jan, nice to have you onside - I thnk there’s a little value here.
There is going to be a C&N poll apparently from a new outfit. If I can get a scooby at the info I’ll let you know.
209 - This is an alcohol ban not a consumption of liquid ban. Is the consumption of alcohol so necessary that people cannot wait until they arrive at a licensed premises or a private residence? Do the travelling public have to put up with the group of ladettes I encountered who managed to down 3 entire bottles of Smirnoff ice between Green Park and Tottenham Hale a journey that takes about 20 minutes? These young girls were either underage or not much within the age limit and were increasingly loud and abusive. I am entirely in favour of preventing this, it is tackling in my view the thin end of the wedge.
178 - completely , hpc is run by loons, though periodically amusing, it attracts legions of people with fairly salty and offensive views which the moderators do nothing to stop and is populated by assorted self appointed end of world experts, and quite a gang of obnoxious fellow travellers. in addition, it bans anyone who dares to critisised its “editorial line”. add to that the likes of jonathan davis who has screamed “we’re doomed” since he sold his house in 2002, and encouraged people to sell everything borrow to buy gold amongst other gems of advice, & you get the general idea.
Mind you, they generally hate gordon brown as much as the next man so it’s not all bad i guess.
If Gordon ‘had to step down on health grounds’ indeed! You’re not even bothering to point out what that really means!
I didn’t think Labour could poll so low as 23%. Obviously this is likely to be a post election bounce - though whether it’s the peak of the bounce who knows?
Labour has breached its recent ‘floor’. Who knows where the bottom might be?
similarly, when was the last time the Tories polled almost 50%? ‘83?
re 211. I am prepared to bet now that the “poll from a new outfit” will get it very wrong. By election polls always do and the “new outfit” worries me greatly.
The keys are getting a representative sample and assessing certainty to vote.
209 - Why would anyone want to drink on the tube or on a bus for that matter?!?
As to that alcohol ban, who’s to say that Ken hadn’t also intended to introduce it, but just kept quiet about it during the campaign?
[209] Indeed.
Excellent piece at 23 from David Herdson which points up the sane approach to Spread betting of Mike Smithson and others.
‘Crystal Balls’ are just balls.
Whenever I attempt to look further than 48 hours into the future I generally land flat on my face and 48 minutes is a long time in betting.
So the Tories have further to rise and possibly this will happen after C&N but be prepared for a sharp fall in their Spread price at some point.
Betfair is ‘the dog that didn’t bark’ and you can probably still get odds against a CON Overall for asking.I find this quaint.
It’s obviously unlikely that these kinds of leads will be sustained. But if they are, the Lib Dems are not far behind them and are likely to gain during an election campaign. Could their second place in votes be in jeopardy? Odds of this are obviously very long, but this poll makes it conceivable for the first time in 20 years.
209. It’s a lot easier to say to youths who have just started drinking to stop, then it is to ask them to be quieter when they are already drunk and rowdy.
Any Questions on radio 4 tonight at 8pm has frank Field, Alan Duncan, Charles Kennedy and Alice Thomson. Will be interesting to see how Field deals with the inevitable questions about Gordon.
220 But why on earth would you want to tell someone who was an adult and not drunk to stop drinking? What the … has it got to do with you? And if they were drunk how much use would your lectures be?
216. warmup for a night out.
why would anyone want to ban them?
[bearing in mind that those intending to behave antisocially will behave antisocially with or without the ban]
222, because the democratically elected mayor was fulfilling his manifesto pledge?
220. 99% of “drunk and rowdy” people on the tube are not drinking on the tube, they are returning from a night out. The ban does not even slightly address the problem.
224. it would be hard to claim that his election had much to do with this pledge.
215. Must that be so though Mike? Didn’t the Finchley and Cardiff constituency polls at the GE produce fairly accurate results?
136: Is Southampton Itchen supposed to be a marginal now?
222. I mean transport officials, not other passengers. Your last question reinforces my point.
223. “those intending to behave antisocially will behave antisocially with or without the ban”
This is a ridiculous argument that is used to defend the allowance of weapons in the US. Yes, there will always be some who continue to flout the rules, but having rules clearly reduces the number of people doing it.
Anybody know if Brown’s replies to David Cameron’s last latter on the Scottish Referendum fiasco?
225. A fair point. How do you suggest to address this?
I’d like to clarify here that I’m not a huge supporter of this ban. I’m just making the case for it. I wouldn’t really care either way.
199 213 Ed/James
You’re starting to sound hysterical, girls. Anyone would think you’re estate agents or BTLers or summat. My commiserations if you are. I hear it’s getting tough out there
216 - On the tube or on a bus? Good grief.
New thread - Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
229. “having rules clearly reduces the number of people doing it.”
the ultimate defensive argument of the nanny state
178
“forums are also dominated by speculators ramping far more ridiculous investments such as gold based on doomsday scenarios.”
I agree with the comment as far as it goes regarding “doomsday scenarios”.
But gold by itself..well it was $300 in 2002 and now it’s around $890 …so they may very well be speculators.. BUT some will undoubtedly be rich and successful speculators.
Don’t knock it.. being right for the wrong reasons is better than being wrong…
Now I know a nice little overlooked Australian goldminer epic MCR …
All sounds like clever Transtamarian disinformation to me . . .
231. My suggestion would be to let people get on with it. Enjoying yourself in public should not be a crime.
Re 23. In terms of historical precedent, in 1906 the Liberals gained 214 seats and the Tories lost almost 250. 1945 was a very special circumstance but Labour gained 230-odd seats.
There’s much less party loyalty now than over most of the post-war period so big swings are easier.
It’s hard to see Brown making it to 2010 without a big improvement - unless there really is no-one else prepared to risk an taking election defeat on the chin as leader.
Mike, I’d dispute your golden rule of polling. What’s happening is that all pollsters, except possibly YouGov, are systematically biased towards Labour. There’s a certain error in every poll. The poll that puts Labour in the worst light is the one whose random sample accidentally includes a few extra Tories. That doesn’t mean that the one with the lowest Labour score is the most accurate, it means that its errors happen to cancel out. A better rule of thumb would be to handicap Labour by a certain amount in interpreting each poll, and a slightly different amount for each poll. Then you’re using all the information from all the polls, instead of just the one with an odd sample.
229 Laws need to seem reasonable and acceptable to the majority of those whom they seek to regulate and to those who have to enforce them. Banning guns clearly passes this test, banning alcohol on the tube clearly does not. It is not realistic to expect train drivers and station staff to confiscate beer from passengers, or take any action if they see them drinking on trains. And the idea of the police mounting anti-drink patrols underground whilst muggers and drug dealers are left to operate in the streets above is laughable.
232. there says a committed hpc’er. we disagree, with you so we must be estate agents, or trolls. derrrrrr……
198:
I am too lazy and timid to do that, although it would be the right thing to do on paper if money were my sole motivation (it is not). Having said that, there are vast sunk costs in moving (solicitor’s fees, stamp duty, removals, estate agents etc.) which I could do without. Also family upheaval/kids schools to consider.
I had sort of planned for this by only buying the smallest and cheapest possible 3 bed house in 2005 when our second child forced us to move, so I have minimised our exposure to the property pyramid scheme as best I can - we could have afforded a lot more, but it would have been stupid.
And who would buy my house anyway - round here nothing is selling.
I’d rather get my mortgage down as much as possible by overpaying and bide my time for a bargain in 2011/2012.