Could Gord just step down voluntarily?
May 12th, 2008
Is this the most likely “end-game” scenario?
Whenever the question of the manner of Gordon’s eventual departure is discussed three different possibilities are raised: that he’ll go after leading Labour to an inglorious defeat at the hands of David Cameron; that he’ll be ousted in a bloody coup; or that he will, like other Prime Ministers before him, stand down on health grounds.
Only a few have suggested that he might come to recognise that his leadership is undermining his party against the dreaded Tories and that he will just fall on his sword. The very idea of this is so alien to the images that Brown projects that the notion just gets swept aside.
I think that this might be wrong. For the one enduring quality about Gordon is that he is totally wedded to the Labour movement and he is fully versed in its history. He will be only too aware of the way that his short leadership might be portrayed. To make the ultimate sacrifice for the sake of the movement by voluntarily giving up the post he had strived for most of his adult life might appear better than hanging on until the end.
This is a massive pill to swallow and Gordon takes a long time making the big decisions. But if all the evidence is pointing one way he could, I believe, do it.
The Labour blogger, Paul Linford, in an excellent post at the weekend on what happens next wrote“..I think it entirely plausible that Mr Brown will fall on his own sword. The one thing he has always been is a party man”.
There are several betting markets - I’m in big on the line up of party leaders at the next election where I got an effective 5/1 on Cameron being the only one from last July who would still be there. It’s now tightened to 1.62/1.
Mike Smithson
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[From previous thread:]
325. Yeah, I think this is bollox. Thatcher is an old lady. Old ladies have strokes. Brown’s decline is something different.
I do remember that famous clip of Thatcher collapsing during a speech - the way she just sort of mumbled to a stop - but still remained perpendicular, while lapsing into her coma. You got the sense of an enormously powerful machine - her willpower - meeting the immovable object of old age.
Elizabeth the First was the same. When she knew she was gonna die she stood in the corner of her room for forty eight hours, immobile, waiting for the Man in Black. She obviously intended to look him straight in the eye, and maybe give him a piece of her mind.
Ooh. Do I get to go first?
I confidently proclaimed to friends that Brown was a Shakespearean tragedy waiting to unfold. And that he’d not make it to the top job.
Well, so far so wrong. However, I see no reason after ten months to revise my painting him as a tragic figure. But Shakespeare didn’t give the option of resignation. Always, the dagger is brought into play.
Someone will, quite soon, wield it. It may be the electorate rather than any of NuLab’s ‘Senators’.
I think Gordon’s resignation to do the “right thing” for his party is the most probable scenario. It is certainly the most honourable.
No one knows how they will perform as PM until they take the job, having the guts to resign like Estelle Morris did, would do his reputation a lot of good.
He should, and my take is that if he thinks it’s in the best interests of the party and the country he will. However, past experience has shown that he takes so long to make his mind up about important things, the party or the country by that time will irretrievably have lost its patience with him and he will already be staring at the exit.
It would be characteristic of Brown to take the cowards route and run away when faced with a straight fight (at the next GE) which he is likely to lose.
Brown might be a ‘party man’ but he would have to give up the job he has always wanted and go down in history a poor PM. In light of that he might think by staying on he can change things around.
Mike just as an aside you’ve got Paul Linford’s name wrong in the main article.
(Now corrected - thanks. Double Carpet)
I do hope you are right Mike. I personally fail to see how he just gives up the job ‘for the good of the party’ it will need a trigger. I think Labour will poll in the teens before the summer is out and that will be his cue to go.
a laudable but laughable proposal i fear…
Mull it over a bit longer Gordon. Then go. 27th June suits me just dandy….
(When I chose that date in January for the pb.com contest, I took the view that the locals would be significantly worse than predicted for Labour (10p tax - honest), with a chattering campaign against Gordon gaining gradul momentum and becoming irresistible after about eight weeks. If it comes to pass, the C & N by-election would just be super-fortuitous to my evil scheme.)
The Mole says there is a lot of pressure on Alistair Darling to get the 10p taxation package officially announced by next Tuesday to rescue Labour’s C&N chances:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,darling-must-move-fast-on-tax-package-or-brown-will-drown,28678
I can’t see it, Labour still think that there is a way out because the nation hasn’t quite yet fallen head over heels with the Tories. As long as there is a glimmer of a possibility of a way out of all this mess then Brown will stay.
Blair did it, so why can’t Brown?
12. But will his chums let him? 200-odd MPs face losing their seats…
Even if it was his way of thinking (I dont think it is - he spent enough years putting himself ahead of the party in his desire to get into No. 10) - who would he step aside for that’s so obviously better? I cant think of any outstanding candidates who would lead Labour to anything other than a defeat next time out.
Brown has probably wanted to be PM since before he was born, he will stay until the election.
15. Labour has form in picking the wrong man. Foot, Kinnock and now Brown.
BBC: Ed Balls has weighed in on Frank Field, saying he has acted “dishonourably”.
More soon…..
17 “Labour has form in picking the wrong man. Foot, Kinnock and now Brown.”
Foot, Kinnock, SMITH, BLAIR and now Brown. The gaps kinda undermine your argument somewhat….
11- Anyone here remember when Brown was at the height of his popularity? I remember “The Mole” gloating over polls that showed Browns personal ratings were sky high and far better than Cameron, and them his finishing the article with “Excpet to see a fortifying of his position”.
PS. Who the hell is he anyway?
18. Ed Balls really is a duplicitous reptile.
18. Haha that’s wonderfully rich.
19. Well we’ll never know about Smith, will we? Surely not unfair to suggest Blair was the aberration in a list of losers going back to Callaghan…
18: So what?
(Sorry, couldn’t resist.)
Ed Balls is admirably qualified to recognise dishonour.
“This is a massive pill to swallow and Gordon takes a long time making the big decisions. But if all the evidence is pointing one way he could, I believe, do it.”
I have long been convinced that Brown will step down before the next GE. But the method and timing would be dictated by the total collapse of his authority and a possible challenge to his leadership, this combined with the final acceptance that he would lead the Labour party to a very bad defeat will finally move him to stand down.
I don’t buy into the argument that he is so wedded to the Labour party that he would come to that decision by putting the party first, Gordon does not participate in contests that he might lose. If he did, he would have had the confidence to put himself up for a genuine leadership contest that allowed us to really scrutinize him as a politician not only on the campaign trail, but leading it from the front.
19. Not really. Smith was also a loser. He just up and died before he was found out.
So, one in 5 and you think my theory falls down?
Go further back then. George Lansbury, eased out. Ramsay MacDonald, split the party from top to bottom.
“Deep inside the Brown Bunker, his advisors are hoping the public abuse heaped on Brown will convert into people feeling sorry for him, and the drowning man will be thrown a lifeline.”
Pass the sick bag
Don’t forget Blair was a Tory. That’s why he did so well.
It depends whether he and/or his cabinet see that his situation as PM is irrecoverable. The memories of last summer plus a couple of small advances back up polls since probably give them hope that there is a chance that his administration can survive the current firestorm, economy will come good and by 2010 they can go to polls with some confidence.
Many of Major’s government thought they would probably lose but not by much and a couple of ministers actually believed that another 1992 would occur.
A combination of two and three;pressure will be put on Brown behind the scenes to go (before this year’s party conference) which will then be dressed up as voluntary retirement through ill health.
20. I do not know but if Darling does announce a 10p tax compensation package during the next week with a suitable apology to the affected taxpayers it might save C&N for Labour.
So lets say Brown does go, who could replace him that would make Labour even more unelectable?
PM ED BALLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(God, please please please let it happen!)
24.And there lies the biggest problem for both Brown and Balls when it comes to expecting loyalty. The way they undermined Blair’s authority in the last year of his premiership will be particularly fresh in some MP’s minds. Brown has a long history of making too many enemies on the long climb to the top job….
O/T - This made me laugh, particularly the last paragraph.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/05/nick-clegg-crav.html
30 Don’t forget his son’s poor health as well as his own;
31 No. Too little, too late, and too ungraciously extracted from the Government by force.
Even if he goes voluntarily, won’t the charge that he was hounded out by internal squabbling still leave behind a poisoned legacy. Brown is no Douglas-Home, who’ll gracefully stand aside and support the team in whatever capacity he can. In his mind everything might have been well if Blair had only gone sooner. He is one who has been betrayed, even now. If he went he’ll presumably stay on as an MP, a brooding presence, a Heath magnified to the power of ten.
31. No, because he was supposed to have done that a couple of weeks ago, and was shown to be nothing more then a bluff to get through the local elections. People just do not believe the government any more, even if they happen to be telling the truth….
34. Yes, no space for the Lib Dems in the current narrative. People aren’t interested in protest any more, they want a change.
#31 The damage is done - until they see the money back in their pockets, it will be a case of once bitten twice shy.
What he does depends on which comes out on top:
Salving personal pride in the face of vitriolic denigration - “B*gger the lot of you then - I’m off!”,
Stubbornness - his conviction that he’s right and everyone else is wrong, so he’d stick it out,
His life-long commitment to socialism; he’ll ignore the men in grey suits, but not if the Brothers in boiler-suits come a-calling.
Nothing would surprise me less than to wake up one morning soon to hear Humphrys, his ’state occasion’ voice barely disguising his excitement at a really huge news story, announcing that Gordon Brown had resigned ‘for the good of the party and the country’. Or had become too ill to carry on. Or something. Brown would need to be made of stone to keep taking this punishment week in and week out, and granita… sorry, *granite* he ain’t. Mind you, the summer hols are not that far off and even the Kavanaghs of this world get bored. Oh, wait… Brown doesn’t *do* holidays, does he?
(from previous thread)
Brown has utterly failed to “connect” with the electorate, which suggests he has some sort of disorder in interpersonal relationships, probably what psychiatrists term “Cluster C” disorders…
http://ivy_league0.tripod.com/rhyme_of_the_ancient_wanderer/id45.html
If so, the man is very ill, and deserves our understanding and compassion..
I too am coming around to the view that he may not fight the next election…
is anyone else completely frustrated by how rubbish politics is all round at the moment.
either Brown or a successor could easily come up with a policy in every department that was
* eye catching
* difficult to argue against/not annoying tohalf the country
* cheap and easy to implement
* characteristically and traditionally “Labour” i.e. actually give voters a real choice
* has measurable results
and the opposition would then be forced to do the same. we could even have proper debate on a range of issues
instead, what have we got:
rubbish, fiasco policies like 42 day detention, 10p tax, etc. that annoy nearly everyone, loads of spin, no identifiable ideology.
the opposition just bullying and bleating with no policies of their own.
continual leadership speculation; when they lay off Brown (one way or the other) it will be Clegg or Cameron, guaranteed
34
Apparently only 4 people bothered to turn up.
Telling people “We are going to take more tax from you, but don’t worry, cos in a few weeks/months you *might* be able to claim most (but not all) of that money back if you fill out 10 forms, then wait a few weeks, then fill out some more forms, drive 30 miles to an office somewhere, fill out some more forms, then wait another few weeks” isnt going to win you votes.
The only thing Brown should have done was say “Having listened to the people, I will reinstate the 10p tax band. I am sorry for the confusion, but I hope you can all see that I am trying to do what is best for Britain.” Yeah it would be humiliating for him, but all the people affected could simply wait until their next pay slip, and not have to do anything else.
But no, he can’t do that, because “BROWN DOES NOT MAKE MISTAKES. WE ARE NOT AT WAR WITH EURASIA”
r4 now Are internet polls accurate or something like it , just got in. its only one of the itmes on the proigramme
45. reinstating the 10p tax band is the least elegant possible solution to the problem.
47. And not in the slightest bit feasible for this year, the cost would be huge, the extra burden on business, the loss of productivity etc.
Balls is an odious creep who wouldn’t recognise principle or common decency if it was ejected into his rear orifice.
2. I must say, I am loving the Shakespearean overtones of the current political situation, fatal flaws, vengeance, threats and duplicity. It’s incredibly entertaining. I particularly loved Fields, chilling and confident arrogance in stating “I will bring down this government”.
re 1 given that she died from tonsillar abscess she might have found it difficult to do that.
46
The programme is called More or less and is worth a listen. Im sure its available on listen again.
49. out of interest, what types of abstract concept would you recognise if they were “ejected into your rear orifice”
Brown wrecked the ministerial career of Frank Field, so what if Frank is paying a little of that back. The country suffered because of this. Field would have brought in a programme for the work shy, stopped the open borders to immigrants and improved the pensions.
Frank has real vision. Labour lost out and if we are honest so did we all.
Just imagine a Govt with Frank in charge of welfare reform and Alan Milburn at the Treasury. The Conservatives would have a real challenge with those two.
Instead with have Gordon and his GOATI.
Govt Of All The Incompetents.
51
It is available on listen again @
http://www.bbc.co.uk/moreorless
53
Agree with you about Frank Field,but Milburn who totally screwed up the GP & Consultant contracts with massive overpayments?
51. I just caught half of it - excellent discussion between Nick Sparrow and Peter Kellner worth listening to in full. They both put up good arguments for why each others methods are flawed.
Also interesting explanation of 412K spoilt papers in London Mayoral election. 406K were simply people choosing not to use their 2nd choice in the 2nd choice count (1sr choice counted so ok).
What would be wrong with bringing the 10p tax back…and increasing the 20p back to 22p?
Or would that just get swallowed up in “BROWN TAX HIKE” headlines, even though everything would just be the same as before?
My head is now hurting from trying the figure out how Brown thought he could get away from getting rid of the 10p band. I can’t think how his mind works, I mean seriously, did he really think no one would notice? That the lowest paid would all think “Ah well, at least its the same as it was in 97″? Please someone help me…
31
No it wont IMHO as Gordo won’t compensate EVERYONE.. You can imagine the interviews, who hasn’t been compensated.. why not??
They’re stuffed whatever they do.
My favourite political joke of the last decade was one William Hague told about Frank Field. In the unlikely event that any of my fellow anoraks haven’t heard it, I’ll repeat it here:
“He was brought in to think the unthinkable. So he thought it. And they said ‘That’s unthinkable!’”
He didn’t wait this long, do this much plotting and scheming and bullying, just to quit are a few months. Even now, he’ll still believe deep down that he is the ONLY man for job. That only he alone can revive the economy and in doing so, Labour’s popularity will soar again.
The only way this will end is if Labour depose him or the electorate throws him out.
The Labour Party is its members and those of them close to Gordon seem to have been pretty unpleasant to him. The choice is to go now, sod the party and leave it to these sh1ts. If you are believer in the true party would Gordon want to do that? I am afraid his problem is that sh1ts just get sh1ttier the longer time goes on.
Anyway where is the best place to bet on Brown going and Straw taking over by October?
I can’t really see Brown falling on his sword. On the other hand I have been wrong before: I thought he was very likely to go for an election last year (and bet he wishes he had).
56 sounds as if both were right.
I keep wondering why Ed Balls keeps popping up as his masters hatchet man and the thought strikes that maybe he knows that he would never win a place in the shadow cabinet as he isn’t popular enough to survive the election process!
More speculation on Barack’s VP:
http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/election08/175
I am beginning to wonder if DC will screw up PMQ’s on Wednesday’ ;), It’s like being in a Tesco’s hypermarket.. So much to choose from….. Will he pick the right subject(s)???
Everyone wants to talk.Nobody wants to bet. You can back Blair/Cameron at 1.8 or Lay at 1.9.
Don’t let me interrupt your fascinating observations.
Sorry, I’ve lost track - is this a Labour Relaunch week?
60: Brown will sit in Downing Street ranting and raving as the Tories occupy more Labour territory every May, and Ed Balls telling him how wonderful he is, until the day the Tories raise their standard over Number 10.
For Gordon to go we need either a successful Labour Stauffenberg or an electoral Berlin.
65. He should start with that disgraceful Labour leaflet, move on to Prezza and Cheries comments and end by asking him whether he agrees with Frank Field that he (Brown) will be out before the election!
60
No: he cannot seriously believe the economy will resuce him. If he did, why consider having an early election (which would have given more time for economic recovery).
He may be a useless politician but he is not a complete idiot. Well … no.. although the 10p tax blunder suggests he thinks the electorate are.
He’ll wok more and more hours, become more withdrawn (like no visit to C&N), look iller and iller and either suffer a breakdown or be forced to rest. OR the economy does recover, the Conservatives self destruct and he wins the next GE.
Resignation? An admission of defeat? So soon? After 35 years hard work? Never.
re 44 and 34
Did I just see Nick Clegg on telly on College Green stating that banks with liquidity problems should be made to go to the wall. Err, like Northern Rock ??? Jeez
From the mayoral election web site:
Rejected* votes First choice 41,032.
No votes cast 13034
* “Rejected votes” refers to ballot papers where the vote has not been counted because the ballot paper has not been filled out correctly. This may be because the ballot paper is blank, because the voter has marked more than one preference in one column, because the voter identified himself or herself on the ballot paper, if the voter’s intention is unclear or if the voter has spoiled his or her paper in any way.
How many labour people have wielded the knife so far - I am sure i have missed some in the last few days but on my list i have
Frank Field
John Prescott
Lord Levy
Cherie Blair
Stephen Byers
Charles Clarke ( I am sure he has at some point but can not remember anything recently - but it may have been overlooked in the general frenzy )
Wendy Alexander ( a swipe in his direction at least )
Tony Blair ( handling a blade - but has not used it yet - but he is providing GB with help in winning the next election……
who else should be added to the list ?
Northern Rock has gone to the wall as far as its shareholders are concerned!
Stepping down would be an act of courage for someone who appears to be as driven as Brown.
If he continued in office a greater degree of delegation would be essential, coupled with a more careful selection of ministers. If Brown wants to work himself to death, it would be tragic for his young family, but holding office for the sake of holding power is not a price worth paying.
Macho posturing with an abrupt break in a family holiday last summer is not something which he ought to repeat. Some form of relaxation has helped other PMs cope with the stresses of office - LL G golf, and other men’s wives, Chamberlain music, shooting at grouse, Wilson extended breaks in the Sicilley Isles.
Perhaps there is a special chapter on Gordon Brown ready to be added to Dr David Owen’s new book.
25 ChrisD I agree with your assessment.
Brown’s conduct with Blair suggests he is anything other than a party man.
If he steps down it will be to avoid a confrontation/outcome he can’t deal and in the hope that a ‘brave/selfless’ interpretation will be put on it. The later, in reality, will have only a tiny grain on truth to it.
25 ChrisD I agree with your assessment.
Brown’s conduct with Blair suggests he is anything other than a party man.
If he steps down it will be to avoid a confrontation/outcome he can’t deal and in the hope that a ‘brave/selfless’ interpretation will be put on it. The later, in reality, will have only a tiny grain on truth to it.
BBC Balls stuff:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7396796.stm
Frank Field is a “loner”
Or a lone gunman?
Apologies for the length of this.
Much to mull/choke over !!!!
I would love to see Gord as a “shelf stacker” of “burger flipper”
From 24dash.com
Cabinet ministers should spend time doing “a real job” in a bid to help them be more “normal”, Communities Secretary Hazel Blears is to suggest.
She will use a speech tomorrow to warn colleagues they can easily become “remote” and that they needed to immerse themselves in real life issues.
And she will call on Gordon Brown to move Cabinet meetings out of Number 10 and take them on tour around the country in a bid to connect better with voters.
The Government has been under sustained attack - including from within its own ministerial ranks - for being out of touch with voters’ everyday concerns.
Ms Blears, who last year spent time stacking shelves and on the till at Tesco, will say that she faced that charge repeatedly while campaigning in the recent local elections.
Labour went on to a serious thumping at the ballot box, increasing questions at Westminster about Mr Brown’s future as PM.
Ms Blears will tell the Social Market Foundation: “Every Government minister should immerse themselves in the lives and communities of the people they serve. It is all too easy for ministers to become remote, cooped up in departmental offices, driven from meeting to meeting, and enveloped by civil servants.
“We need to create the space for Ministers to remain grounded and normal.”
She is expected to go on: “People think politicians are on the make. They think we’re living in our own world, unaware of the harsh realities, and so we need to fix that.
“Just imagine if the Cabinet meeting took place at the British Legion, Swindon, the Town Hall, Grimsby, or the Victoria Community Centre in Crewe. There is no good reason why not.
“Imagine if the meeting was preceded by sessions with Cabinet ministers meeting local people, listening to their concerns, engaging in discussion, local schools getting involved.
“Interviews for local newspapers and community radio. And no doubt it would have a direct impact on the decisions made.
“Last summer, I introduced the idea of cabinet ministers getting back to the floor by spending some time in workplaces, away from the media, doing a real job.
“I ended up at Tesco’s for three days, stacking shelves and on the tills. I won’t tell you which one of my colleagues got to be a train driver for the day.
“This should become the norm.”
Ms Blears will say that making “empowerment” a key political battleground - including plans to put more local assets into community hands and increasing the use of “citizen’s juries” - would “allow the Government to prove that we are still on the side of the people who pay our wages and afford us the incredible honour and privilege of serving as MPs or ministers”.
73 - Reading Nick Robinsons account of Balls intervention it doesnt seem as helpful as it could be.
70. Well, I don’t believe he was ever seriously contemplating an election last autumn. He was trying to spook the Tories and let Balls and Alexander (Doug) get carried away. But for him to have called a risky election after just three months in the job goes against everything we know about the character of the man.
And I think he would seriously believe the economy is robust enough to survive the downtern, that he has done away with boom and bust, etc…. Basically, I think he’s swollowed his own propaganda hook, line and sinker.
Yes, Brown is intensely partisan, and will always seek to do what he feels is best for the party.
But he’s also a proud man.
If he does come to believe that defeat is inevitable, I think his pride will drive him to stay in charge, take the blow, stay on the bridge as the ship goes down.
Let him call an election in 2009, after the 4 year term that’s now the norm. Yes, of course he’ll lose - but at least he’ll then have a chance to rebuild his reputation by “doing a Howard” - presiding over a long leadership contest, and maybe guide one of his protegees to victory.
After all, to go now would guarantee his place in the history books as a failure. Can anyone really see GB doing that?
The only way to get round him is if a viable alternative emerges - and that will only happen if the non-Brownits can agree to work together. Can Alan Milburn or Charles Clarke draw any support at all from the other wings of the party? Can John Cruddas? If not; Brown stays.
79. Did Tescos wonder if 3 days was too long to keep her stacking shelves before she started to destroy their profit margins and reputation?
Brown has taken over the wheel at the Titanic just minutes before it hit the iceberg. Now everything is crumbling around him. Blair would have faired no differently, and I bet that there must be quite a few tories who are glad that there wasn’t an election last November that they had ended up winning.
The knives are out in the press and in the Labour Party. I can’t see Gordon being able to do anything to save himself. His only hope is to hang on until the summer break and then come back in September having re-invented himself and with the economy in much better shape - no actually he has no chance of that.
So who next? Well who ever it is will not be able to turn things around. None of the bright young things would want the poison chalice this side of the GE. I think we’d have a caretaker PM for a while.
79 - Is it just me or does anyone else think that Cabinet ministers should get on with being a good Cabinet minister rather than going on a let’s pretend exercise?
67 Marquee Mark “Sorry, I’ve lost track - is this a Labour Relaunch week?”
Could our Labour chums please help by telling us which weeks (if any) are not a relaunch week?
Someone called Bill Rammell (Higher Education Minister)
Rammell said: “We have to avoid giving the impression that we believe we have a God-given right to govern. …..Rammell praised* Gordon Brown for admitting that he had made a mistake in abolishing the 10p starting rate of tax, which gave the impression that Labour did not care about the poor. Labour should “admit and acknowledge” its mistakes but also recognise that there are no simple solutions.”
“We have to recognise that there is no quick-fix solution.”
Note to all Labour MPs
There is quick fix solution! Increase the personal allowance by £1,000 for everyone but reduce it by £1 for every £10 of income over about £8,000. Darling apparently as asked the Inland Revenue to do this but was told it would take a year to reprogramme the computer!!! This is the same system that already is programmed into the computer for over 65s. Unbelievable!
83 - That’s such a pointless NuLab spin-machine idea - everyone knows what low-paid jobs are like - dull dull dull. Far more pertinent would be to make cabinet ministers live on the minimum wage for a month or two, and then for another month or two with their tax doubled. That might teach them a thing or two about playing politics with the low-paid.
Well uniquely on here I actually feel tremendously sorry for the man. How many of us have done something we really wanted to do and been gutted we were not that great at it… a few more than are willing to admit it.
Brown has still achieved far more in his life than I ever will despite rather trying personal circumstances and I for one admire that.
His problems mostly come from the fact that he was not as good a chancellor as his party liked to claim he was - mistakes made during that time are coming back to haunt him. As far as personality goes I couldn’t give a toss what he was like if he made great decisions all the time - but clearly he hasn’t.
79 Thanks for that. Yet another piece of evidence to show that Blears is not fit for high office.
90 - Hazel isn’t fit to be branch chairman of the Salford My Little Pony Fan Club.
90
More importantly is she fit and competent to stack shelves in Tesco’s?
A savage indictment of Gordon Brown, and a rather touching tribute to our new rightwise King Boris the first of London here:
http://www.newenglishreview.org/custpage.cfm/frm/19810/sec_id/19810
89. On a human level, I do feel sorry for Brown. For the suffering he is enduring and will likely continue to suffer. For terrible infliction of depression, that he seems to suffer from. How will he survive when he’s out of office? Will his failures physically and emotionally break him? Will his life ever be the same again?
But on the other hand, he plotted and schemed for this job and he didn’t care who is hurt to get it. He wanted this job and now it turns out he’s not up to it. Theres no point shying away from the brutal reality.
A voice from the past adds another straw to the camel’s back.
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/bryan_gould/2008/05/games_up_gordon.html
Dunwoody Jnr looks beaten by the expression on her face in today’s Sky reports…
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Polls :
McCain 46% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 42% .. Obama 52%
Note - No Clinton Presidential matchups.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Icarus
I used to be a Payroll Manager for a publicly quoted Company.
I had long chats with my local Inspector who always came back to tell me that even tho a good idea, costs were prohibitive..timescales etc
As I understand it(and it may not be the case now), programming is sub contracted to a third party who have write the spec, test etc etc etc, costing zillions.. That’s why nothing but imperatives happen.
For those looking to wager on the date of Hillary’s nomination exit, the ‘LA Times’ looks to why Obama might want Clinton to stay in the race to the end of the primary season :
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-ticket11-2008may11,0,3612671.story?track=ntothtml
56,72
2nd choice rejected votes 412,054
Rejected votes totals include: No 2nd preference 407,840
So rumours of a disastrous number of rejected votes was just because 407840 simply hadn’t used their 2nd pref, which was quite reasonable.
96 Not sure if you can read that much from it. She may not just be able to master the Blair grin.
New PPP Presidential Poll for North Carolina :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 38%
McCain 49% .. Obama 42%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_051208.pdf
not true see my post at 72 these rejected votes do not include those who didnt make a second selection
100- So if you just used your 1st pref. vote, it still counts?
re 100. All of this supports what we were saying at the time that the polling numbers to look at were the first preference ones and that the second pref shares suggested by the polls were not very robust.
For full, official details of rejected votes:
http://tinyurl.com/4xh9nj
Obama nets another 2 SD’s - Hawaii’s Dolly Strazer and Congressman Tom Allen of Maine.
NBC now reporting that their SD counter has Obama ahead :
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/12/1010226.aspx
I thought it interesting that on today’s PM programme they first played a clip of David Cameron’s comments on the Burmese aid situation and only then let us hear what Gordon had to say.
Is it conceivable that any party in its right mind would elect somebody called BALLS as its leader?The jokes and headlines would be endless. Reminds me of DARLING in Blackadder.
Mike, when is your next article dealing with the likely successors to Gordon coming out?
I’m interested to hear your views on who can turn it around.
re 57 or even better 10%, 20% and 42%
109, I’m still wondering if Balls will be Chancellor.
COuld elad to the headline: “Move over Darling, it’s time for Balls”:p
95 Noticed in the comments on Bryan Gould’s article that Labour has split in Slough and the Conservatives now control the council.
http://www.sloughobserver.co.uk/articles/1/2745
So Labour have lost control of Durham and Slough in a week.
The only reason Gordon would step down is so somebody else could be tarred with the brush *last Labour PM* - those of us who work with gordon and see him on a daily basis observe all aspects of his personality.
Even as a Conservative, I feel sorry for Gordon Brown- I really do. Call me an idealist but I do believe that he is genuinely interested and genuinely wants to help this country and now his one ambition has been realised- everything is falling down around him. Frank Field is correct- it is tragic that he’s clearly unhappy in the job. Of course, I don’t believe that Brown has gone about the right way in helping his country, but that’s political. If there’s one Brown isn’t, it’s a corrupt, interested in only himself politician and so it’s sad to see he’s the one taking the brunt of the attack on project: New Labour. Okay, things are worse now, but not that much worse than under Blair- remember the petrol strike anyone??? There are three things different, however: Blair could spin anything; Brown has to face voters tired of 11 years of Labour government and the media ha not warmed to Brown. That said, had Brown been Prime Minister followed by Blair- there’s little to suggest things would be different. What’s coming out now is years of supressed infighting- it had to come out and Blair was lucky to get out when he did.
I have a feeling Brown might just decide it’s all in vain- but then he might be pursuaded to stay by the idea that the upturn of his fortunes is just around the corner. I think however, especially if Crewe and Nantwich declares a very large Conservative swing, that he’ll resign on health grounds. For his party, it may be the only way to preserve Labour as a party of government.
Boris bids farewell to Henley.
Boris says farewell
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 49%
McCain 43% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 43% .. Obama 50%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107218/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Pulls-Ahead-Clinton-50-43.aspx
Given the chaos and paralysis within the govt, maybe when GB has his next fireside chat with HMQ, she would politely suggest a dissolution might be in the national interest?
I’ve always felt Her Maj was a better reader of the national mood than any politician, particularly one bunkered away in No 10…
Johnson sounded very petulant on today, acting like someone disagreeing with him is being irrational. I know some people have said he would make a good leader, but if this is an example of him dealing with criticism I’d say he wouldn’t be any better than Brown. This day couldn’t get any worse for Brown, and gives Cameron any number of attacks to use. However, he has to pick one narrative and use the questions around it.
116 - what a lovely letter. I detect a Cameron influence.
Suggests another by-election may be imminent - and another thumping Tory win…
And as for Ed Balls, well he’d know about dishonourable wouldn’t he, slimey oxygen thief.
115. “For his party, it may be the only way to preserve Labour as a party of government.”
Unfortunately, all experience of Labour - New and/or Old - shows that they never have been a “party of government”. In government, yes but of it, no.
While Tories and Liberal periods can be shown to have mixed fortunes - success and failure intertwined. ALL labour governments have been failures, either short or long-term.
Reading David Kynaston’s “Age of Austerity, 1945 to 1948″ reveals all the same nostrums and arguments being applied in the last 11 years as then. And all the same failings.
Harold Wilson showed the same failures, too. The 1966 National Plan for all its wishful thinking was just the same mess of potage that Attlee’s Nationalisations were post-1945. And Blair/Brown’s wasteful tax and spend policies are no different.
No, Labour is NOT a party of government but rather a natural party of opposition.
Brown is a party man, certainly, but more importantly he showed an obsession with becoming PM. For him to be so obsessed about a job that everyone else could see he wasn’t suited to, makes me think he’s a sandwich or two short of a picnic.
My prediction is that Brown will hang on as long as possible, up to about 6 months or so before the last possible election date. It’s very possible he’ll be made to go before then, but he won’t want to. He’ll only go when he’s realised he’s exhausted all chance of winning the election - if he’s 6 months out and still way behind in the polls, he’ll resign rather than let himself be beaten by Cameron.
Oh and if he did resign, surely it’s guaranteed it would be to Andrew Marr and spun for all it’s worth - health of my son, stress of the job, media bias etc etc.
122 - ALL labour governments have been failures, either short or long-term.”
Wonderfully insightful.
117 - When RCP incorporate that poll into their averages Obama will be +4.2% against McCain (47.7 v 43.1), that is the biggest gap since mid-February when McCain became the presumptive nominee.
To my mind this is very bad news for McCain. Yes the match-ups this early don’t mean much but I can only see them getting better for Obama - the party has yet to be fully united and he will have a big financial advantage. He has come through the muck unscathed and if the Republicans return to it it may look tired. I think the GOP’s only hope this time would be a scortched earth strategy but McCain is not the man to do it.
The other big news that has largely gone unreported is Bob Barr declaring a bid for President on the Libertarian ticket. He was one of the Representatives who led the impeachment of Bill Clinton and left the GOP a couple of years ago. He is not a Ross Perot figure but he could definitely be a Ralph Nader and pick off 2-3% of the GOP vote, making McCain’s task even more difficult.
124. What do we have to celebrate from Wilson’s period? The Open University. Doesn’t amount to much does it?
And Attlee. The National Health Service? All post-war parries were committed to A National Health Service - just not the centralised, bureaucratic monolith and bumbling version that was Bevan’s legacy.
Callaghan? Prices and Incomes Board, anyone?
Blair/Brown? I know they trumpet the Minimum Wage but, I ask you, having introduced it they then undermined it with unrestricted immigration and the woeful system of Tax Credits so that instead of becoming a floor it became a ceiling.
Anything else? No UK Passport for Mohammed Al Fayed, I suppose that’s an achievement of sorts.
122, 124
zzzzz Yet another torybetting.com post.
If Brown did resign, only one political figure of his generation can claim to be more sucessful. And he’s isn’t Tory either.
New thread - Is the Henley by election being planned for June?
126 - There are surely better sites to vent your prejudices on. Most people here aren’t interested.
Brown’s premiership and government continues to implode, but what’s more dangerous for both him and the Labour party, is the fact its crumbling from the inside of the inner cabal both North and South of the border.
Imagine if today’s Ed Balls briefing had been on camera
Sam Coates on the Red box notes that “But while the Field assault is making the headlines, lasting damage could result from his criticism on the Pre-budget report, and, by proxy, the Chancellor.
Alistair Darling, he suggested, failed to focus on family finances and if the credit crunch’s impact had been anticipated “different decisions would have been taken”. This, Team Brown believes, is why people are unhappy.
But while sorry is the easiest word at the moment, the apology is still limited in scope from those around Brown. There is still no explicit admission that the original decision to the scrap 10p rate itself should never have happened. They are only apologising for the “handling” of the issue.
Which, they have clearly decided, Alistair can shoulder some of the blame for. Now that really does seem toxic.”
To respond to 126- by my understanding, Churchill was vehemently opposed to the NHS.
I think it’s wrong to say that Labour are a natural party of opposition- I do not believe that there is such thing.
What I meant by party of government was 1) a party that could conceivably win the next general election and is supported thus, 2) a party that is big enough in terms of membership and MPs to provide effective opposition and 3) is not in danger of being relegated to less than 100 seats in the space of a few General Elections.
While it seems dramatic, Labour are not far from here. In Wales, Plaid Cymru and even the Conservatives are creeping up on Labour. In Scotland, Labour are being replaced by the SNP. In the inner cities, the Lib Dems are making ground and everywhere else, the Conservatives are advancing swiftly. If this carries on, there will be very little to call natural Labour heartland in a short space of time. Think about it: Labour are battered at the next election, they are no longer the dominant party in Wales or Scotland. Already, this makes winning a majority in the future as hard for Labour, if not harder than for the Conservatives. All it takes is unfighting, which as I have said has been supressed for 11 years to errupt after 2010 and the party could tear itself apart.
This is of course, worst case scenario.
127 - Ken Clarke?
131. Churchill opposed to a National Health Service? Then how come the original White Paper proposing one came out in 1943/44?
129. Since when did you speak for ‘Most People’?
133 - ” Since when did you speak for ‘Most People’?”
Since yesterday. When did you start thinking that your incredibly biased views on the merits of Labour governments were interesting or useful to the kind of people who read and post to this site?
134. Well said, Neil.
In his intro Mike said: There are several betting markets - I’m in big on the line up of party leaders at the next election where I got an effective 5/1 on Cameron being the only one from last July who would still be there. It’s now tightened to 1.62/1.
As stjohn pointed out yesterday and I followed up today, it’s possible to back Brown to go during 2008 at 14-1 and during 2009 at 12-1 both with Paddy Power, albeit for limited stakes. Effectively therefore one can cover the entire period comprising almost the next 19 months at odds of 6.5/1, far better value than is available with Betfair.
134 and your poodle 135.
This is a debating site and not a mutual admiration society open only to Labour groupies.
136 Oops, I’ve just noticed that PP have cut their odds this evening on Brown’s early departure. 2008 is now priced at just 7.5/1 in from 14-1 earlier, whilst odds on his going next year BEFORE a General Election (I should have made that clear in my earlier post), have been cut from 12/1 to 9/1.
When Labour were at their lowest under Michael Foot, they almost became replaced by the SDP/LDs. The only thing that saved them was their solid core block of seats in Scotland, Wales and parts of England.
Well they have now lost their dominance in Wales & Scotland and are gradually losing the English cities. Take a look at the electoral map of 1983 and see which of the red ‘rump’ would stay red today……
Gordon Brown’s Labour is looking more unelectable than Michael Foots!!!!!
134
‘merits of a Labour governments’
What merits?
Let’s have Tony blair back.
Facile, narcissistic, Tory-ish, unprincipled, over-desirous to please everyone, supporter of illegal wars, believer of his own propaganda. Why he is here already. Step up, President David Chameleon.
139 Any thoughts “FOR PUNTER, AS PROMISED
My predictions for the Weslh constituencies at the next election:
Conservative hold (3): Preseli Pembrokeshire, Monmouth, Clwyd West
Labour hold (16): Delyn, Clwyd South, Rhondda, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhumney, Cynon Valley, Pontypridd, Ogmore, Islwyn, Aberavon, Torfaen, Neath, Swansea East, Bridgend, Cardiff West, Alyn & Deeside, Wrexham
Lib Dem hold (3): Brecon & Radnorshire, Montgomeryshire, Cardiff Central
Plaid Cymru hold (3): Meirionnydd Nant Conwy, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Caernarfon
Independent hold (1): Blaunau Gwent
Conservative gain (7): Vale of Clwyd, Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South, Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff North, Newport West, Conwy, Gower
Plaid Cymru gain (3): Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, Llanelli
Lib Dem gain (1): Swansea West
That leaves the three most interesting races. Alun Michael might choose to step down in Cardiff South and Penarth - if so, I’d expect a great three way (or even four way if Labour swing to PC) race which I’d expect the Lib Dems to win if the council results are anything to go by. If Alun Michael runs again, I’d expect Labour to keep this seat at least for one more Parliament.
Newport East is already looking like a three way, with the 2005 result showing Labour on 14.5k, and the Lib Dems and Tories effectively level on 7.5k votes - in other years, I’d expect the Lib Dems to steal this, but with a lack of national strategy and so many seats to defend (that I think they will lose) I don’t think they will manage it - either the vote will split, allowing Labour back in, or the Tories might take it on a big national swing.
Caerphilly is the other seat that interests me.Wayne David has a 15k-plus majority, but there was a rumour that Ron Davies would run (he used to be the Labour MP here) either for Ymlaen Cymru/Forward Wales, or as an Independent arguing for an implementation of the Richards Comission findings on greater autonomy for the Welsh Assembly Government. The other snippet I had heard was that, on that basis, Plaid might either support him or at least not field a candidate, though I have nothing but a rumour to substantiate this. Without Plaid in the race, he could actually win this seat - otherwise, probably a safe Labour win.
by Morus May 10th, 2008 at 6:29 pm”
90,92 well she’s not fit to stack high shelves anyway…
“The one thing he has always been is a party man”
Is that ‘party man’ as in ‘the man who single handedly destroyed the Labour party’? No-one who genuinely put their party before themself would ever ever ever behave as Brown as behaved for the past fourteen years. He’s stabbed one colleague in the back after another. Some party - some man.
Sorry folks but I think you attribute too much honour to Brown. He is ruthless and vindictive. ASk anyone in the Scottish Labour party who has got on his wrong side. He took months to acknowledge that Scotland had chosen Alex Salmond as First Minister and even Annabel Goldie the Scottish Conservative leader on in Holyrood spoke out against the slur on Scotland the behaviour of both Brown and Blair had been.
Gordon Brown is only a party man if its HIS party. Bendy Wendy was his placed woman as Scottish Labour leader and 2 days ago he hung her out to dry by claiming there is no need for an Independence Referendum. Labour in Scotland is disintegrating and with it Brown’s power base. He knows that many of those stabbing him in the back owe their positions to Tony Blair and if he goes, I fully expect him to go to the Queen and ask her to dissolve parliament so that he can see all the Blairites lose their seats back to the Tories, who should never have lost them in the first place.
Gordon Brown has over-promoted people like Darling, Alexander and Ballocks,none of whom could hold a candle to people like Robin Cook, Mo Mowlem, John Reid and Frank Field. Brown and his kitchen cabinet never go on Newsnight to face the music. They send people like Tony McNulty, Tessa (what was that mortgage document for dear) Jowell and Hazel (I wish I could take that grin off my face) Blears out to face the music no matter what the subject.
If David Cameron can, he should try and offer Frank Field a Minister of State for Social Security job in the next Government as Andrew Lansley’s deputy. Finally the country would have a Social Security Minister who really understands how the benefits system needs modernising to help unemployed and disabled people get into work without being penalised and the 1.5 million 16-21 year old shirkers off the streets.
26. Not really. Smith was also a loser. He just up and died before he was found out
Are you seriously suggesting Smith would have lost to Major?