Is the Henley by election being planned for June?
May 12th, 2008
Is Boris’s “goodbye” a sign that the writ is about to be issued?
The above has just gone on the Henley Standard website and suggests that the Tories are going to waste no time in setting the processes in train for an early by election to replace Boris Johnson.
The piece is a “goodbye Henley letter” from the new Mayor which seems to suggest that the by election campaign has already started.
There had been some speculation that he might have wanted to hold on until the general election before resigning his seat. This was what Ken did when he first got elected.
Well this move tonight looks as though there is going to be a by election and it will be quite soon.
Could this be a chance for the Lib Dems who look set to be disappointed in Crewe and Nantwich? It looks a big ask but who knows?
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Does Dave has one of his mates lined up?
I think the only real chance for the LibDems would have been if (a) the by-election was delayed by a year and (b) the Tory candidate had been non-local. With a snap election in June, tehre’d be no chance of a Lib gain.
i’d be surprised if the Lib-Dems won here, a pretty popular MP leaves voluntarily on good terms, all while the conservatives are finally in a great position. If the Tories take C&N next week, they will also have momentum in their favor
Sorry to go O/T, but update to post and link from end of the last thread.
Brown’s premiership and government continues to implode, but what’s more dangerous for both him and the Labour party, is the fact its crumbling from the inside of the inner cabal both North and South of the border.
Imagine if today’s Ed Balls briefing had been on camera(updated)
Sam Coates on the Red box notes that “But while the Field assault is making the headlines, lasting damage could result from his criticism on the Pre-budget report, and, by proxy, the Chancellor.
Alistair Darling, he suggested, failed to focus on family finances and if the credit crunch’s impact had been anticipated “different decisions would have been taken”. This, Team Brown believes, is why people are unhappy.
But while sorry is the easiest word at the moment, the apology is still limited in scope from those around Brown. There is still no explicit admission that the original decision to the scrap 10p rate itself should never have happened. They are only apologising for the “handling” of the issue.
Which, they have clearly decided, Alistair can shoulder some of the blame for. Now that really does seem toxic.
(Friends of Alistair Darling say: “Alistair spent yesterday, as he does everyday, dealing with big issues in the Treasury.” Ouch)”
4
Labour will lose their deposit in Henley….
It will be a two horse race between Tory and LibDem.
But the Tories should be looking for something like..
Con 60
LD 30
Lab 5
Oth 5
Mike are you suffering from new-threaditis today. I’d only just started looking at the previous one.
Brown is a Party man? Don’t forget that there were many who claimed last year that it had to be Brown, because if it wasn’t, his supporters would make it impossible for whoever took over. For his supporters - read Brown. Now that says a lot about his ‘real’ character. I don’t think I understand the political mind as much as many on here who are Party members, but I’ve always felt Brwon was only loyal to one thing - himself.
Yes, he may have seemed loyal to Labour - because he envisioned himself as being in charge. That might sound snide, it’s just what my instincts tell me.
Sorry- to respond to 126 in the last thread- by my understanding, Churchill was vehemently opposed to the NHS.
I think it’s wrong to say that Labour are a natural party of opposition- I do not believe that there is such thing.
What I meant by party of government was 1) a party that could conceivably win the next general election and is supported thus, 2) a party that is big enough in terms of membership and MPs to provide effective opposition and 3) is not in danger of being relegated to less than 100 seats in the space of a few General Elections.
While it seems dramatic, Labour are not far from here. In Wales, Plaid Cymru and even the Conservatives are creeping up on Labour. In Scotland, Labour are being replaced by the SNP. In the inner cities, the Lib Dems are making ground and everywhere else, the Conservatives are advancing swiftly. If this carries on, there will be very little to call natural Labour heartland in a short space of time. Think about it: Labour are battered at the next election, they are no longer the dominant party in Wales or Scotland. Already, this makes winning a majority in the future as hard for Labour, if not harder than for the Conservatives. All it takes is unfighting, which as I have said has been supressed for 11 years to errupt after 2010 and the party could tear itself apart.
This is of course, worst case scenario.
Liberal democrat leaflet being distrubuted in Henley with following bar graph:
Two horse race between Liberal Democrats on 45% and the Tories on 40%. Only the Liberal Democrats can defeat the government here!
Just to finish on Brown, I find it hard to believe he would step down voluntarily, he would need to be convinced it was all over and support from the Party was gone.
Anyone else see the Six O’Clock News on the BBC?
George Alagiah[sp] came out with a great line.
“I suspect our viewers are more interested in the policy of the 10p tax band than internal party squabbles” (approximate with words but exact with the sentiment of what was said.
I don’t recall the BBC saying that over Cameron’s grammar school difficulties.
Draft Boris’s dad!
Did anyone else hear Tom Bradby on ITN news just now?
Did he was say that he had been briefed by a cabinet minister along the lines that, the cabinet realised that Brown had to get his act together and that when pressed, suggested Brown had until October?
12
Must be hard for the beeb, have to report bad news, but they do try to put the best slant on it…
8 - Response is on previous thread.
10. Gordon has the upperhand, Gordon cannot be removed as a general election will have to take place under his succesor. The party would be damaged by the brownite faction led by Ed Balls and the instability for the labour party would be worse than a defeat (even a landslide) by the Tories.
even Ben Brogan thinks Balls briefing was a fiasco………….
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/05/cameron-embarra.html
17 brutal, but funny. Brown has only days left in the job.
18
and Adam Boulton blog adds to the woes…
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/2008/05/anything-could.html
Superdelegates continue to trickle in for Obama - four today and another (Idaho Chair) announcing shortly expected to be for him. Is Clinton holding off to announce a block of them after West Virginia, or has she just run out of backers, do we think?
As to the substantive, I don’t see what the Tories gain from waiting - get a new MP in as soon as possible, and make sure the Lib Dems don’t have time to infect Henley…
I expect the Tory Boys to hold fairly comfortably. The Patriots could poll 10% with a prevailing wind. Could be interesting to see who we win that percentage from.
Other News…….
Tory ‘Black Farmer’ says Lib Dems are Racist - The Patriots are warm and cuddly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1944731/Dirty-work-on-Wilfred-Emmanuel-Jones%27s-farm.html
I’d think the LDs have to make an all-out assault in Henley if they’re squeezed in Crewe - they really risk looking marginalised if they don’t make an impac in either place.
On the last topic: the blogosphere tends to feed on itself and produce an apparent momentum that isn’t reflected in Westminster - Westminster is a bubble, but so are the blogs. I remember arguing for about 18 months with posters here who kept saying Blair was toast, he’d be gone next month, he couldn’t survive the latest story, etc. There really isn’t any pressure on GB or a plot to remove him - I know some of you think there should be, but there isn’t.
18. Has anyone had to suffer such an onslaught?? I cant remember… I know Blair had some really bad weeks in his last eighteen months, but the first five to six years were pretty much plain sailing, with the screw ups certainly not paralyzing the government.
The Government has lost its way, the Prime Minister has lost his way, the cabinet have lost their way.
I dont know if Brown has the kind of personality that can sustain such negative press. Everyone is having a go, even the loyal broadcasting wing of the Government are sticking the boot in (or at least giving a gentle kick).
If Labour lose the by-election, and importantly its not even close, then he has to be a goner, new leader, and a general election before Christmas.
Who would want to pick up the reigns of government for the next couple of years? As a tory, i dont want my party to do it, they will be cursed by the first acts of any decent government in such a mess. Balance the budget, by significantly reducing spending and if necessary gently increasing tax to cover the gap.
23. sorry posted to soon, after stabilizing the finances, only then can any real work be done. That can take a full term in itself, especially with the mess we are in now.
Senator Daniel Akaka of Hawaii has endorsed Obama :
http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-sen-akakas-endorsement/
John Reid?
Nick Palmer
On another subject, if the biometric chip on the new ID cards is used to check someone’s identity, does this need to be referred back to the central database or can it be verified locally?
I hope they don’t go for Boris’s Dad. A pleasent 30 something Cameroon would be much better, IMO.
Regarding Ballsgate, is Balls after Darlings job? Surely not!
22 predictable rubbish. its all sweetness and light in no10 i presume.
Ben Brogan can be a brilliant blogger. This is an excellent post from C&N…
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/05/crewe-the-pickl.html
Idaho Chair also confirmed for Obama. Won’t do this for all 260 to come, I promise
http://www.newwest.net/city/article/idaho_superdelegates_united_for_obama/C108/L108/
30 jdc. Thanks for that. The endorsement had been expected for most of the day. Not too much of a suprise that Obama picks up this one as Idaho voted over 4/1 for Obama.
21. That doesn’t say anything of the sort. It says the Lib Dems have made an issue of him coming from Devon. Nothing to do with race there, or is the BNP persecution complex working overtime today?
‘Could this be a chance for the Lib Dems who look set to be disappointed in Crewe and Nantwich? It looks a big ask but who knows?’
Henley will obvioulsy be a chance for the Lib Dems, who may yet not be dissappointed in C&N. The wily fox (Rennard) seems quite upbeat about C&N regardless of the poll.
In fact I believe there was poll at the start of the Ribble Valley by-election that put the Lib Dems in third and we all know the result there…
23. I think John Major had weeks as bad as this in the mid 90’s, but time tends to face the memory. But if you try really hard to think back, you can just about remember how awful it was…. Major brought things to a head in July 95 with his; Back me or sack gamble. It payed off, and it allowed him to limp on for the next 10 months. What could Brown do to bring things to a head? Obviously putting himself up for the Labour leadership is out of the question, as, given then opportunity Labout would more than likely call his bluth and vote for someone else.
23. I think John Major had weeks as bad as this in the mid 90’s, but time tends to fade the memory. But if you try really hard to think back, you can just about remember how awful it was…. Major brought things to a head in July 95 with his; Back me or sack gamble. It payed off, and it allowed him to limp on for the next 18 months.
What could Brown do to bring things to a head? Obviously putting himself up for the Labour leadership is out of the question, as, given then opportunity Labour would more than likely call his bluth and vote for someone else.
6 See this http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/02/localelections.localgovernment2
Be interested how this analysis ties in with your theories.
re 22 we might want to bookmark this post for Friday week.
New Susquehanna Presidential Poll for Pennsylvania :
McCain 38% .. Clinton 49%
McCain 39% .. Obama 46%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Susq-PA-Statewide-May08.pdf
34 Simple make either the 42 days or the Finance bill issues of confidence. That’s what Cameron has been on at him about
37 Even if they don’t make a huge impact I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Labour rather than the Lib Dem who get the squeezing.
The “LA Times” reports that the GOP Convention might be more lively than expected !! :
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/ronpaulgop.html
Libs no chance in Henley!!!!
39. Well, the finance bill is already a confidence issue, really, because Frank Field has made it clear he’s prepared to vote the bill down and bring the government down.
Maybe Brown could warn his party that if they vote against him, he’ll call an election, rather than resign - In other words, you vote against me, and I’ll bring the whole show down!
29 Thanks for that MTF. In the piece on C&N, Brogan says:
The LibDem vote is being squeezed relentlessly and now he [Pickles] is turning his attentions “to something we’ve never really tried: love bombing Labour voters”. They will be told it’s ok to vote Tory this time, as Labour will still be in Government if they do. The truth is, if they do vote Tory the chances of Labour surviving in Government will fall to near zero.
The final sentence is just plain ridiculous. Substitute Brown for Labour and he might be at least a little nearer the mark.
re the news of defections of Labour councillors to Conservative in Slough . Last year the Conservatives used electoral fraud to get a councillor elected in Central ward . This year it looks like they decided the only way they could win this ward was by getting someone elected as Labour first and then getting them to “defect” .
Pity the people of Slough who try to vote to keep out thee Conservatives but end up getting them anyway .
43. Government by mutually assured destruction, interesting idea.
45, *cough*Liverpool*cough*
Also, all parties have had incidents of electoral fraud since the stupid postal voting system was changed. It needs reforming as a matter of urgency.
23. “Has anyone had to suffer such an onslaught?”
Yes, John Major did - for years; Brown probably will too. Two facts to remember. One - the cabinet is stuffed full of Brownites and ex-Blairites who have made their peace with Brown. The only remaining Blairites are on the backbenches. There will be no coup at the top. Two - if there is a leadership change (after another two months of campaigning within the party, and this time in a position well behind in the polls), the new leader will have little more than a year to turn things round, with no electoral mandate, no new policies that can be implemented and plenty of colleagues who will be thinking that either they or someone else could do a better job. It would be a very very poisoned chalice.
The biggest problem Labour has at the moment is that everyone and his wife seems to be offering their solutions on how things can be made better. The official way of doing so is the ‘relaunch’, but that only opens up the chance for others to give ‘constructive advice’ on those same putative policies. The same goes for listening exercises, consultations and the like. With so much discussion going on, it’s only natural that a few people are taking the opportunity to settle a few scores.
While Labour’s behind, it will always be difficult to keep dissenting factions quiet, not least because they often believe they have the silver bullet of electoral success, but it’s surely only sensible not to give them a platform?
44- don’t think it’s that ridiculous. For Labour to lose such a seat to the Conservatives who are poor at By-Elections, particularly if the margin is anything more than 5 percentage points depicts a more solid change in public opinion. If, after the Local Elections, Labour MPs are coming to terms with an “inevitable” GE defeat, what are they going to be like after a Crewe and Nantwich defeat? In my eyes, that defeatis attitude is the final nail in Labour’s coffin.
46 I think unless it is a direct vote of confidence the Palace would treat it as being specific to Brown and not grant any dissolution until it was proven no one else was able to command a majority
48 It maybe poisoned for a Miliband but for a Straw it wouldn’t. Why wouldn’t he go for it. He’d have have climbed the greasy pole at last and even if it was only a year that’s more than 99.9% of MPs, and it’s his only crack at it
35
Major brought things to a head in July 95 with his; Back me or sack gamble. It payed off, and it allowed him to limp on for the next 18 months.
It payed off? A third of Tory MP’s voted against him! For a sitting PM to have a third of his MP’s vote against him, was nothing short of disasterous, even though it was portrayed as a victory.
I agree with Mike, its the memory of JM, which might make GB consider his position.
The next Labour Party conference could be a torrid affair.
True political change very rarely happens smoothly.
45
Mark Senior, Show me any post that you have made being critical of someone defecting to the Lib Dems from the Tories or Labour, and I might give more credence to your point.
Please, please NOT Johnson Snr!
54 Be a bit of fun.
36. I don’t usually pay much attention to local election extrapolations. Turnout is too low to draw any sensible conclusions, and people often surprisingly vote on local issues rather than national ones!…
Take
Crosby Local Elections 2004
Con 39.3% Lab 30.8% LD 29.9%
Crosby General Election 2005
Con 32.1% Lab 48.2% LD 17.4%
Change
Con -7.2% Lab +17.4% LD -12.5%
A 12.3% “swing back” to Labour in 12 months…
Agreed, the results were dire this time, but a Tory majority is not a certainty….
49 Lloyd - Did you see that the Tories are throwing the kitchen sink at the C&N by-election. Apparently every shadow front bencher has been instructed to visit the constituency at least three times. In many respects, in the current climate, it would be as damaging for the Tories not to capture this seat as it would be for Labour to lose it - and they clearly know it!
55. Hardly fun for Cameron if we lose a seat and all the momentum is dissipated!
The result of the 2005 election in Henley:
Boris - 24894 (53.5%)
Lib Dem - 12101 (26.0%)
Labour - 6862 (14.7%)
Green - 1518 (3.3%)
UKIP - 1162 (2.5%)
In the current climate, it could be quite a difficult election for both opposition parties. I could easily see Labour losing their deposit, but the Lib Dems could go backwards as well. They would no doubt try to squeeze Labour - and could be quite successful in doing so - but there’s not that much Labour to squeeze, and some of it will be rock-solid core vote, while another section will join the national swing to the Tories.
The Lib Dems’ tactics work best when they can say ‘only we can beat X’, but that relies on X being unpopular with enough of the electorate to generate momentum in their direction. Apart from the fact that the Tories would start off on more than half the vote, is there that fear of a Conservative win that would give the Lib Dems a boost, in the current climate, in Henley? I suspect not. Their best bet is to work on any resentment there might be on the constituency’s MP having gone off to another job mid-term, but even there, even Boris’ strongest supporters would be hard pushed to claim that he was the most assiduous constituency MP in the House.
If there is an early by-election in Henley, the Lib Dems would be better playing it quiet and keeping expectations low. I’m not sure they would though.
59. By ‘both opposition parties’, I meant the two main ones not holding the Henley seat, not the two main ones not in government. Don’t want to get ahead of events!
57 - Not sure. Considering Labour’s campaign strategy, it might be in the Conservatives interests for it to be seemingly “successful” on this occasion!
17 - Very clever of Cameron to offer such sound advice to the Govt, knowing they’ll just do the opposite! It seems perfectly clear to me that Labour’s constant ‘relaunches’ are ridiculous and are only serving to generate more negative headlines for them. When their only real hope is to knuckle down, disappear under the radar, and pray for the current crisis to pass and inflation to start to come down.
59 Very, very difficult to see the LibDems having any realistic chance in Henley, but then again, I used to say the same about Richmond Park, Wimbledon and, Heaven forbid, Guildford. But of course, the Tories lost all these whilst in the trough of despond.
63 - When was Richmond ever a safe seat?
re this thread, can’t see why the Tories would delay. As Oliver said at 3, Boris is popular, has just become the most elected politician in the UK and the Tories are on a roll. Get Henley over with and then wait as right of centre Labour MPs do deals with Cameron in exchange for high profile defections to Tories.
Anyone think Frank Field might defect to the Tories next Wednesday about 5pm? interesting thought if Frank doesn’t, someone might.
Re Gordon Brown, never underestimate the PM’s ability to be vindictive and ruthless. I suspect of Gordon Brown feels cornered then he will perform the ultimate in revenge politics and ask the Queen to dissolve parliament so that at least if he loses, it will be all the Blairites sitting in natural Tory (i.e.pre 97) seats who will lose their jobs. Gordon can retire to the Lords and if Ed Bollocks or another of Brown’s henchmen doesnt get elected as Labour leader in the post election bloodletting, he can undermine his successor firstly from the back benches like Ted Heath did or from the Lords.
Dont know if any of you saw Bendy Wendy on the Politics Show yesterday but Glen Campbell of the BBC made utter mincemeat of her. She is proving to be even more inept and unsuitable to lead a major political party than those of us who hold her in total contempt (as a politician not as a person) considered possible. I reckon the SNP Deputy Lord Provost of Aberdeen could make mincemeat of her and he is an 18 year old first year law student!
65 - Considering the size of his majority i don’t think there’s a cat in hell’s chance of him defecting.
65: Not defect but do a Claire Short perhaps.
67 - The effect is the same - expulsion and the loss of his seat.
66. Agreed. Frank Field will stay and fight Brown to the bitter end. He’ll pop up on general election night, when Labour are being turfed out, and he’ll take great pleasure in telling his party; I told you so!
62. Just to go along with this for a minute. Does Brown have the nuclear option because of Crown perogative. If there is an attempted coup or a charles kennedy style attack with drip drip drip resignations can he actually call a general election? He can ask for a disolution because he is PM but if he is on the way out does the queen have to say yes?
Much more likley he’ll just make the finance act a confidence issue. there is just no way that with a majority of 65 plus SF abs SDLP etc that they would loose a confidence vote
John Major put up with this for years. will brown really wilt after 11 months.
I though field was devastating on the World service and Johnstone was really on edge on today. Though the way he dealt with the interviewer was superb.
re Henley. If the tories have any sense they’ll call it asap and split the last week of LD activity in crewe with Henley.
The party did quite well with the southgate/sedgefield and Hodge Hill /leicester south split but noticably won only one out of 4.
65 bendy wendy. sums up the nulabour project in one. utterly shameless non-entity
64 - Richmond has not been a safe Tory seat for a very long time.
No chance of FF defecting, although in his callow youth he was once a Tory.
69 - Maybe he’s eyeing up a post-election leadership bid
Cons now 1/7 with Ladbrokes to win C&N! Incredible considering that this is a “safe” Labour seat! Close to the 1/9 which would be right if Mike’s “90% chance of winning” analysis is right. Makes the 5/1 on Labour look huge!
Henley will be an odd by-election; a popular MP resigns because he’s been elected elsewhere - upset at him choosing somewhere else or pleased he beat Ken? He’s around to campaign for his successor if the latter. The holding party is riding high in the polls. Biggest threat will be turnout, as it was in Bromley.
59 - the LD weakness in Henley may in part be due to the fact that they have never really tried there. There are so many other seats around and about that the campaign teams have been sent out to in recent GEs - both Oxford seats, Romsey, Newbury, Maidenhead…
It will be very interesting to see the impact of busloads of LDs arriving in Henley. It should also be remembered that most of the constituency lies out the eponymous town. And yet, a lot of it is equally smart.
Were Vincent Hanna still with us, I would expect him to be reporting from all sorts of cutsey villages, which will look very familiar to fans of Midsomer Murders.
Frank Field is certainly not on the right of the Labour party. The Tories would be as mad to take him as the LDs were to take Brian Sedgemoor. I think Cameron is wiser than Kennedy on this front.
59 - They Lib Dems played it “quiet” in the sense of not making a big national thing of it until they knew a good result was in the offing in several of their recent by-election wins. It didn’t really reach the public consciousness outside those seats that Brent, Romsey or Dunfermline (or the near miss in Bromley) were “on” until the last few days. It’s only really Ealing (where they had to trumpet their chances because Cameron was trumpeting his) that they were more bullish on the wider national level.
Icarus - from last thread re London Mayoral election. In post 103 you state my post in 100 isn’t true, yet I literally cut and pasted the figures and words from the official web site that you directed me to!
I’m a bit confused.
Here you go cut and pasted again and I only looked this up and posted it after the report on the radio this afternoon explaining it all.
Rejected votes (2nd choice) 412,054
No 2nd preference 407,840
In other words most of the rejected 2nd choice votes was simply because these people did not make a 2nd choice (whether deliberately or because they didn’t realise they could). So it wasn’t a great mystery and of course their 1st choices counted.
Evening all
All getting a bit hot and bothered on here today - not exactly sure why.
Re: Brown - I agree with Nick P. on this or at least I agree he won’t be challenged (I’m not sure I accept his “all is well in the PLP” line). The art of challenging a sitting leader is predicated on just one premise - that you have someone who would immediately and decisively lift the Party’s spirits and fortunes.
In 1990, it was clear that whereas Margaret Thatcher looked like a vote loser, Michael Heseltine appeared to be a vote winner. In 2003, IDS was a disaster whereas Howard was a safe pair of hands.
Where is the alternative to Brown ? I’ve seen no evidence that any other Labour leader would do any better.
The electoral process is another obstacle - if you extend the franchise beyond the MPs there’s no guarantee the MPs will get the result they want.
Final thought is that Brown, like Major, is a political animal. If you go into politics, you have to be able to accept defeat in the same way as victory. Major KNEW he was going to lose and lose big - Brown may well stare a similar fate in the face but politicians recognise and accept defeat. Brown may well think that in his defeat Labour can begin the process of renewal - I can’t speak to that.
Re: C&N - I realise it’s in the interest of Tory activists to talk up their prospects and talk down their opponents - it’s part of the game but I think there are lies, damn lies and reports from by-elections.
70. No, the Queen doesn’t legally have to grant a dissolution (it is ultimately her decision, not Brown’s), but if Brown then resigned as PM but not leader of the Labour Party, she’d have trouble finding a new PM. Realistically, a prime minister with a majority in the House could go to the country more-or-less any time he or she wanted to.
The Finance Act is generally considered to be a confidence issue anyway. If a government can’t get its budget through at all, then it’s effectively lost the confidence of the House, as the implications of losing the budget for the rest of its programme would be so severe. That doesn’t apply to individual measures within the budget, and I agree that if the government looked like losing on the 10p vote, there would probably be an explicit vote of confidence either on the Bill as a whole or on that specific issue (as were that tax band to be reduced to 10p in the pound, the hole in the government’s accounts would grow substantially).
Oh the irony!
Gordon Brown attack: thank goodness his supporters never traded gossip
“I do, to coin a phrase, feel Tom’s pain. It must be galling to watch all this dreadful coverage when for years supporters of Brown in the Labour family feud promised that his take over would lift the party to heights previously thought beyond its reach.
At least leading Brownies have the consolation of knowing that in their ten year campaign to unseat Tony Blair they never once resorted to the spreading of low gossip about Blair’s inadequacies, or delighted when a Blairite policy initiative was blown off course by briefings about the latest personality-driven row or scandal to hit Number 10. Thank goodness the Brownies chose to remain resolutely on the moral high ground. It would have been awful if they had done otherwise.”
Marc Ambinder has begun his Electoral Map for the Presidency. One response has McCain and Obama each on 269 Electoral College votes !!!! …. and a Democrat Congress breaking the tie …. or of course a faithless elector. !!!
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_atlantic_map_responses_and.php#trackback
82 Wonder if it were a vote of confidence if there would be rebels - Gordon seems keen on copying John Major as quickly as possible so could we see Labour’s equivalent to the Maastricht Rebels.
82. Thats very interesting. Two West Wing Style senario’s to while away a hot evening.
(a) surely if Brown loses on 10p tax he just does what Major did over Maastricht and represents it as a Confidence vote? ANy Labour MP voting against loses the whip and thus his/her seat.
(b) What happens if Frank Field goes to the palace in a taxi 15 minutes after browns limo and tells her maj that Brown is bluffing and he has 50% plus one of the PLP’s names on a letter saying they’ll support x as a successor.
Can’t she quite properly accept browns resignation and then appoint x anyway. If it tales the PLP weeks to arrange the formalities of removing him as leader in name only thats browns problem.
I think it is shameful the slime at the centre of Labour have been calling Field a loner etc. that is pretty low. Still the public aren’t as stupid as Brown and cronies believe them to be and they can see Field has a long record of honesty and integrity. Compare that against Brown’s cowardice, dithering and constant calculating and there will be only one just winner in the public’s mind.
By the way I also think it is shameful any Labour toady mentions Brown’s name in comparison with Major. John Major was a decent bloke who had a sucessful record given his majority and the state of his party, Brown is rightly the lowest rated prime minister since Neville Chamberlain as he is a dishonest incompetent buffoon, not a patch on Major.
81.”Where is the alternative to Brown ? I’ve seen no evidence that any other Labour leader would do any better.”
Stodge, at the moment I would turn that comment around. Could anyone else in the Cabinet do any worse than Brown at the moment?
I can think of at least 2/3 cabinet ministers who are better media performers and who might be able to hold the ship together through a possible cataclysmic GE defeat.
I also think that many on here make a mistake of comparing Gordon Brown to John Major. There may be glaring similarities when it comes to the media onslaught, but you are talking about two completely different political animals who have absolutely nothing in common. Personally I think that Major was in many ways more able to handle the pressure in the longer term, especially as his decline came on the back of his surprise 92 GE victory. Brown at the moment is seen as bottling his strongest window for a similar victory.
re 70 if Brown were to ask for a dissolution HM would politely want to know why, but in the end she’d give him one.
87 ‘not a patch on Major.’ says it all really. a total muppet. he is gone in days.
89 I imagine she would tell him to call the Samaritans first before he politically topped himself.
Re: 88 - Fair enough, Chris, but I’ve seen no one suggest a single figure of any consequence as a potential successor to Brown based on any evidence that they would transform a 20+% deficit into say a 5-10% gap which would at least put Labour back in the game.
As for the Brown-Major comparison, I do think some Tories on here are indulging in selective amnesia. The man was mercilessly vilified by his own side, by Tories, from Black Wednesday onward. Brown may not be happy with Frank Field but John Major had his Cabinet “bastards” and was relentlessly attacked by the Telegraph and Daily Mail on an almost daily basis.
77 - Try as I might, I just can’t see Henley ever turning yellow. I understand the comments about fairly nearby seats trending LibDem at times, but Henley? It just doesn’t FEEL like the the kind of seat that would turn yellow, demographically. To get a blue seat going yellow I would suggest you need at least one of the following:
1) A vaguely liberal/libertarian intelligentsia already in situ, willing to turn yellow in order purge from their consciences their past “nasty” Conservative or Labour voting (eg OxWAb, Cambridge and probably Oxford East at the next GE)
2) A plain contrary/independent streak embedded in the local electorate (lots of the South West)
3) A disaffected previously Labour voting rump happy to switch to LD to kick the Tories. This is esp. potent when combined with a Tory government and you have disaffected working/middle class Tory voters staying at home.
Henley, for all its many charms (and I do genuinely like it as a place), has never struck me as particularly highbrow or independent and doesn’t have a large enough Labour vote to squeeze. The LDs, if they poured resources in, could certainly narrow the gap (any lively campaign will tend to narrow the winning margin of the front-runner). But actually win Henley? I sincerely doubt it. Stranger things have happened (not many this time last year would have said Boris would now be Mayor of London), but I doubt it, esp. if the Conservative win C&N and have all that momentum going into Henley.
PS. Midsomer Murders has indeed been filmed in Henley and its environs in the past. Also in lots of other locations in Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire. Just the other day I was in Dorchester and the little abbey shop was proudly shilling its own Midsomer connections.
86 (a). I’m not quite sure of the technicalities here. The government could present the 10p vote as a confidence issue BEFORE the vote, ensuring that it goes through - but also ensuring the hostility of a good number of backbenchers who will have a political score to settle later on (not a personal one, but something like a deferred rebellion). On the other hand, I suspect that the Maastrict vote was on an amendment introduced in the Lords which then subsequently needed a vote in the Commons, after the government had lost the earlier Commons vote. On a Finance Bill, the Lords don’t get a say, so that option wouldn’t be available - but my memory could be wrong on the Maastrict events anyway.
(b) 50%+1 of the PLP wouldn’t be enough. A PM needs more than 50% of the whole House (or would do in such controversial circumstances). It would be proper for the Queen to take soundings if she thought an alternative government could be formed from the existing House, but usually that would only apply early on in a hung parliament, or where a PM was seeking to stay on in defiance of their party (eg if Thatcher had refused to resign as PM after losing the leadership election in 1990). Realistically, HM is always going to go down the non-confrontational route unless there is absolutely no other option.
85 - ” Gordon seems keen on copying John Major as quickly as possible so could we see Labour’s equivalent to the Maastricht Rebels.”
I hope we won’t have a repeat of John Redwood launching a leadership bid from Teresa Gorman’s bosom.
90. “he is gone in days” - Yes; about seven hundred, give or take a couple of dozen.
93 - Well Morningside turned yellow so perhaps Henley too…
This seems topical http://www.henley.libdems.org.uk/
92.Stodge, the situation with Brown is so dire at the moment that they don’t have that luxury of looking around for someone that will dramatically improve their polling deficit. They need to find someone who will simple have the inner steel and confidence to lead the government and create some stability to stop the haemorrhaging of support within the party and their heartland voters.
In effect they need a John Major figure, I don’t dispute the media onslaught he suffered, or the infighting in the Conservative party. But he was better equipped to handle the day to day stress and pressure that came with such an onslaught, he did the job for 7 years and saw it through the bitter end. I don’t think that Brown has the inner strength or courage to do the same, and remember its not collective amnesia on my part to be thankful that despite everything Major did stop my party imploding completely.
When Major popped in from the political wilderness with that almost unprecedented attack on Brown’s visit to Iraq during the Tory Conference, he showed that he too is a much more relaxed media performer than Brown can ever hope to be.
re 45
Mark Senior
still waiting for you to tell me of any post you have ever made that was critical of someone who had defected to the Lib Dems.
BECAUSE OBAMA IS THE COOLEST KID IN POLITICS
… being an Apostate’s gonna look super-cool!:
“As the son of the Muslim father, Senator Obama was born a Muslim under Muslim law as it is universally understood. It makes no difference that, as Senator Obama has written, his father said he renounced his religion. Likewise, under Muslim law based on the Koran his mother’s Christian background is irrelevant.”
…
“With few exceptions, the jurists of all Sunni and Shiite schools prescribe execution for all adults who leave the faith not under duress; the recommended punishment is beheading at the hands of a cleric, although in recent years there have been both stonings and hangings.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/12/opinion/12luttwak.html?ref=opinion
—-
One more reason to support and VOTE for him: for the pleasure of seeing the Islamic Fury rising again! Ha!
100. Only the loons really believe this. My mother in law changed from lifelong Islam to christianity, and lives in a country with about a 45% islam, 45% christianity and 10% fruity people jumping up and down rattling animal bones (traditional), and no such threats have come about, it hasnt strained relations in any way. My wife is muslim I am christain (notionally), we got married in this country, again there was no issue, no concerns, no hard words or anything….
94 I think it would be proper for the Queen to refuse a dissolution if Brown resigns as PM, and some other MP can command the confidence of a sufficient number of MPs to form a government.
A sobering fact for the lib dems is they are no longer popular and serve no purpose in the electorates mind . They have passed their high water mark . They might make the odd gain here or there during their decline but from a betting perspective you can make money selling the lib dems . This process actually started at the last general election ( selling lib dem seats was the best bet for me in that election ) and it has continued ever since . For those who need recent evidence of this trend look at the lib dem London results - they failed in Ealing ( a much bigger failure for them than for the Tories because it was a by election they would have won in the past from their position ) and then their very poor showing in the london assembly compared to last time . This trend could wipe out most of their south west stronghold . I predict they wont win Crewe or Henley and will do badly in the next GE and will shrink back to their 1980s position .
O/t But Denis Macshane is still whining about Boris Johnson, 11 days after he was elected Mayor.
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/denis_macshane/2008/05/_on_the_day_of.html
Like Sean T, I would not be unhappy if Nick P retained his seat in Broxtowe, but really, someone’s got to put them out of their misery.
Re: 98 - Chris, I think we’re going to have to agree to disagree about Brown. I think he will remain because there isn’t anyone else who could take over the party and re-launch it effectively.
The “next generation” of leaders will take their time, accept the defeat and make the best of it and then take over the party in Opposition to begin the long road back. I honestly think all Brown can hope to do is take the defeat and walk away taking the poison with him.
It’s effectively what Major did and, as you say, many Conservatives now view what he did as a service to the party. At the time, though, even many Conservatives despaired of him. Like Brown, he had the misfortune to follow one of the greatest leaders the party ever had. Major’s behaviour in decline and defeat was exemplary and that does him huge credit.
103 - a case of mistaking hope for fact?
When you say back to the 1980s position do you mean the 26% or the 23 seats in 1983?
Re; 103 - You’re entitled to your view, Morgan. Unfortunately, you’re hopelessly wrong as well - never mind.
For a party “no longer popular” 25% of the national vote and a net gain of 34 seats off a high-water mark election isn’t that bad. We quickly forget Dunfermline and Cheadle in this parliament and a pretty good result in Bromley & Chislehurst.
Yes, London was poor though there were factors at work that won’t play so strongly in a GE as you well know.
I don’t do silly predictions except when I’m trying to get a forecast up at Lingfield. I’ve already acknowledged we will lose seats next time - my belief is we’ll drop to 35-40 on maybe 17-19% of the vote.
Once the Cameron Government fails to meet expectations and blunders into its own share of misjudgement and misfortune, I expect the LDs to regain momentum and seats and we’ll enjoy watching the Tory activists defend the indefensible, the incompetent and the ill-conceived.
101
click here, and you’ll understand: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apostasy_in_Islam#Punishment_for_apostasy
By the way, someone called Martin Day comes on here and rants on about how Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock.
It would be nice…
11,559,735 votes, 34.4% of the vote and 271 seats….I could live with that
105.Yep, we will have to disagree about Brown, but I agree with the rest of your post though.
On the subject of Tories defecting to the LibDems, what about Emma Nicolson. She was Tory Party Vice-Chairman, a clever lady who espoused the cause of the Iraqui marsh dwellers in the south. She won Devon West and Torridge for the Conservatives and then she defected to the Lib Dems and Paddy Ashdown (from memory) made her a Life Peer. Now according to Martin Baxter arguably the most marginal Tory/LibDem seat with a notional Libdem majority of 50 presently predicted to go Tory with a majority of 5000. I you want to see white knuckle contests between the LibDems and Tories then look north to Scotland at the next election. The Tories want their seats back and in Scotland the LibDems are seen as part of the New Labour establishment having been “in bed” with them for most of the past decade.
101
The difference, here, is that your wife did not convert to Christinism; Obama did.
They key to this is self evidently Crewe.
If the internal (Cons) polls are as good as it seems and the LDs are going to hell in a handcart it’s a no-brainer.
Call it now,’bring it on’ and let’s just get the deed done.
If, in the increasing unliklehood, the Conservatives fail in Crewe
it would look an extremely foolhardy call to make though.
Any call on moving Henley head of the outcome in Crewe is extremely bullish for both from a market perspective fro them as well as Conservative seats more widely.
TB
Re 8, Lloyd, “Sorry- to respond to 126 in the last thread- by my understanding, Churchill was vehemently opposed to the NHS.”
No, I believe you are incorrect. All parties were committed to a national health service they merely dffered in how to deliver it.
The Liberal Party (no, not the LibDems!) will almost certainly be contesting Henley as well. We’re miffed with the LibDems for failing to support a referendum on the EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty as per their election pledge. We haven’t contested this seat for years, but the chair of the Oxfordshire Liberals lives in the constituency. He thinks the local LibDem voters are quite eurosceptical and may make their feelings about the referendum known by switching to the Liberals this time around. At least, that’s the hope!
Re 22, Nick Palmer “On the last topic: the blogosphere tends to feed on itself and produce an apparent momentum that isn’t reflected in Westminster - Westminster is a bubble, but so are the blogs. I remember arguing for about 18 months with posters here who kept saying Blair was toast, he’d be gone next month, he couldn’t survive the latest story, etc. There really isn’t any pressure on GB or a plot to remove him - I know some of you think there should be, but there isn’t.”
Best news I have had all week! I do hope he can hang on until the election!
103 go ahead then how much do you want to do?
116 indeed, Nick has been right before on internal party matters when the commentariat was saying the opposite. His words should cheer all Tories.
Re: 114 - Evening, Benedict
Did the blog ever get off the ground ? They aren’t difficult to set up. Here’s mine…
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com
On the subject of the Conservatives and the NHS, the Tories in 1945 did not believe the country could afford the Beveridge plan as it was constituted.
112. her mother did though….
114 In 1945 Manifesto
“The health services of the country will be made available to all citizens. Everyone will contribute to the cost, and no one will be denied the attention, the treatment or the appliances he requires because he cannot afford them.
We propose to create a comprehensive health service covering the whole range of medical treatment from the general practitioner to the specialist, and from the hospital to convalescence and rehabilitation; and to introduce legislation for this purpose in the new Parliament.”
The difference came with the nationalisation of the voluntary/charity hospitals - Conservatives intention was to leave these independent where Labour nationalised them.
“The voluntary hospitals which have led the way in the development of hospital technique will remain free. They will play their part in the new service in friendly partnership with local authority hospitals.”
The Tory NHS would IMHO have been more effective in terms of outcomes and choice as it would have led to the model adopted in the majority of European countries.
My view is that comparisons between Brown and Major are flawed and erroneous. Major was by no means a brilliant PM but he was a good communicator and quite likeable. His party was riven by Europe and ultimately, despite Major’s best efforts, self destructed.
The common factor between the two is that,”It’s time for a change.” The fundamental difference is the personalities of the two PMs.
I think Gordon Brown is a sincere man who cares deeply about social injustice and poverty and entered politics to make a difference. But he is personally ill-equipped for the role of PM. He appears incapable of making timely or good decisions and his continued tenure is damaging the party and the country.
Those that argue that the polls indicate Labour would be no better off under a different leader are missing the point. Labour are dying on their feet because they are demoralised by a lack of effective leadership. Things can only get worse until this boil is lanced.
Will the successor candidate have “Plenty of Scottish blood flowing through his veins”?
111. Why would portraying the Lib Dems as “part of the New Labour establishment” work in 2010 when there is no Lab/Lib Dem coalition in Scotland, when it so conspiciously failed in 2001 and 2005 when the coalition existed?
I believe the expression is “they’ve shot your fox”.
121- hit the nail right on the head there I think, stjohn. I agree.
114, 120- well I stand corrected. Somewhere along the line I picked up the idea that Churchill was dead against the idea… ah well.
121. Do you have any thoughts on who you would prefer to be the next Labour Leader stjohn?
121 stjohn - PP’s odds on Brown exiting during 2008 down today from 14-1 to 15-2. Excellent spot by you yesterday.
Still can’t see it happening though, not least because the 10p tax band error doesn’t get righted until October.
121 - “Things can only get worse until this boil is lanced.”
I agree with a lot of you post but hho will lance the boil? And who will do any better? My estimation of Gordon Brown has plunged new depths over the past few weeks but I cant see anyone doing any better or even wanting to try. Labour seems to have very little top-class talent in a position to take over, all options seem slightly flawed. (Who does Mike suggest other than Jowell?!)
125 Let me guess - Jack Straw!
121 Both though are curiously like 1950’s politicians marooned in a time they don’t quite fit.
Re: 121 - Not sure I agree entirely, st John. If the argument is “time for a change” that is an extremely strong factor and I don’t believe that, for example, had Blair remained PM, it would not be as strong and as relevant.
Governments of all stripes have a shelf-life. I think the optimum is about a decade. I think it’s hard to argue the Conservatives had passed their zenith by 1989 and Labour were certainly past theirs by 2007. The process of defeat, opposition and renewal is integral in what is fundamentally still a duopoly.
In the US, the GOP will benefit if they lose the Presidency in November as it will allow them to regroup before the 2010 Congressional midterms.
I suggest people get on Clinton before tomorrow’s primary. The scale of her win is likely bigger than the media expects, and the Obama team haven’t put much money into it. I’d then get out shortly after the results are in, because there’s still no way Clinton will get the nomination.
Gordon does indeed take time making the big decisions. That’s always portrayed as dithering. I’m not so sure it’s a bad thing - except in special cases like Northern Rock of course.
My girlfriend points out that many of the complaints about Gordon, and the reasons Labour backbenchers aren’t happy with him, is that he’s not expected to win. As a voter, when we ever hear about what he’s doing, a lot of it’s very sensible. there are one or two obvious exceptions though - the 10p rate and failure to nationalise Northern Rock. But we’re primarily judging him on this circular argument as to whether he’s likely to win - how good he is as Labour leader rather than as PM, as it were.
130.
“In the US, the GOP will benefit if they lose the Presidency in November as it will allow them to regroup before the 2010 Congressional midterms.”
Most Republicans still don’t realise what’s happening. Most will put the blame not on the public rejecting their ideology, but on McCain being too much of a Democrat. The evangelical and libertarian wings will also start launching accusations. Regrouping is years away - there’s a lot of infighting to go through first.
131
I think it’s a good advice; Clinton is very cheap now: 8,5 on intrade….
132 So you think Gordon’s problems are just about the 10p tax band and northern Rock? Wow, breathtaking!
New SUSA Presidential Poll for Kentucky :
Clinton 60% .. Obama 32%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5a9590c1-a775-4dc0-8dee-9f75b029ae2c
Just a thought- is anyone considering putting money on a Labour MP defecting within the year or within the parliament?? Is there a market? It hasn’t happened in this parliament, but if things really are turning for the worst then MPs, particularly in the South could be making a smart move. I’wouldn’t put it past Charles Clarke, for all his criticism and being on the right of the party- or is that just stupid?
125. HenryG. Peter is right at 128! Jack Straw would be my choice. My £40 at 50/1 could be a factor in influencing my opinion. But I genuinely quite like the guy. I actually think he is Labour’s John Major figure. A rather grey but consensual figure who handles the media deftly and confidently.
100. Obama was never a Muslim. His father was the “apostate” - Barack was raised an atheist.
What do people think about polls in government about potential alternative leaders? In opposition it’s easy - they’re completely meaningless, because the public hasn’t heard of the alternatives. But I should still think that most people haven’t heard of many of the alternatives - how many members of the public could name the foreign secretary even? 30%? And although we anoraks have a some good idea of what we think, we’d develop our opinions dramatically over the first six months. That even happened to Gordon.
134 So, Philippe - how high are you forecasting Hillary will rise on Intrade tomorrow ….25 …..30 even?
Re 78, SBS “Frank Field is certainly not on the right of the Labour party. The Tories would be as mad to take him as the LDs were to take Brian Sedgemoor.”
I don’t think you are right there. For a start he was originally in the Conservative party, at the same time as being a campaigner on child poverty. He left before McMillan’s winds of change speech over apartheid. It is possible that had he waited a few months before jumping ship, he would not have jumped ship at all.
His methods of fixing both the benefit system and indeed child poverty all look remarkably Conservative to me.
131/134 - It could be a very risky idea, if Hillary decides to bow out on a high after the vote, then it’d be over essentially and the money on her would be lost. Because lets face it, she’s lost and she must now know it, after the result will be her last chance to go out on a high.
Meanwhile, the Independent is worried that a shortage of immigrants means there is a shortage of workers to pick fruit at minimum wage.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/news/tightening-of-immigration-laws-means-farmers-face-losing-50000-tonnes-of-fruit-826245.html
The suggestion that the pay should be raised was rejected in favour of a plan to go the whole hog and start importing slaves.
The slaves will be paid in brused fruit which they themselves pick. Gordon Broon reacted positively saying “Fruit tastes better when hand picked by imported slaves”.
Benedict Brogan is on a roll today, three posts in 4 hrs. looks like there might be a statement in the House tomorrow on the 10p issue…
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/05/10p-action-tomo.html
If everyone isn’t compensated expect fireworks…………..
137. I wonder what the procedure is, when an MP defects, and when wooed, gets promised by the party that he will be able to fight his exisiting seat for the new party, but the other party has already selected their parliamentary candidate (I think pretty much all seats have existing parliamentary candidates).
This could be exceptionally tricky in the Conservative Party for PPCs that have been selected by open primaries.
Hi all,
Away for a weekend in Labour heartlands (the North East) and I can report everyone seemed to think GB is fecked, from students to cab drivers.
As for looking at the by-elections. Anyone betting against Boris handing on to another Tory is throwing their money away. A popular MP, with a large majority, actually campaigning for his successor, Tories high in the polls = walkover.
In Henley at least the Lib Dems are the obvious alternative, no denying that.
Peter, no, I think Gordon’s problems are primarily about presentation. The lost data, for example, is the kind of thing that makes a bad news story for whoever happens to be in power at the time. The bungled call on the election was about politics, not government. Gordon is disastrous at presentation and comes across badly in the media. He’s also made some bad political calls - in principle, he’s got no business deciding whether the Labour party should be in favour of Scottish independence - that should be up to the Scottish Parliament.
But the actual problems of governing substance, as opposed to politics and presentation, are relatively rare.
100 — ???
In “Dreams of My Father”, Obama relates wrote he got into trouble for making faces during Koranic studies…
And here, Kristof (in the New York Times): wrote that Obama “recalled the opening lines of the Arabic call to prayer, reciting them with a first-rate accent.” :
http://select.nytimes.com/2007/03/06/opinion/06kristof.html?_r=4&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print
In all those articles published in the NYT (not a right-wing paper, mind you!), the assumption is taht he was a Muslim, now converted to christianity.
131. but will a big win move a market thats made up its mind anyway?
141 — I’d sell at 12…
143. If she does well tomorrow she’ll at least hang on until Kentucky, just in case a miracle happens in Oregon. The Clintons still reckon that if they gethuge WV, Kentucky and Puerto Rico wins, and stop Obama winning in Oregon, they could possibly win in at least one popular vote measurement, which combined with an Obama mistake could open up superdelegates minds.
Not going to happen, but this is her one chance, and she’s chasing debt. What’s a few million more?
149
– was in response to Socrates, 139
152
I agree: If Obama loses Oregon, everything is blurred.
145. If they dont move to a fully comprehensive compensation they must have a death wish and they can’t be that stupid.
Can they?
145. I find it hard to see how Darling can accomplish this without just reinstating the 10p tax, which will turn the massive hole that already exists in his budget into a grand canyon style chasm.
149. He went to a liberal Muslim school in Indonesia, so he would have studied the Koran there. But his family (on both sides) were atheist and brought him up as such.
Now that it’s obvious the Lib Dems can’t win Crewe, they should all decamp to Henley. If they have long enough, they could be in with a shout. Lib Dem by-election upsets are mostly about leaflets through doors, not national politics. Having said that, of course the national political picture makes this one as hard as any seat where the Lib Dems are the obvious challenger.
137. Labour MPs don’t usually defect to the Tories - there’s only been 4 in history, and those defected over “big issues” such as steel nationalisation, unilateral disarmament, and constituency infiltration…
156
The solution just as bad as the problem? Well Gordo got them into this, Its all his fault and noone elses.
149
According to today’s NYT paper, it does not matter if Obama was raised as an atheist:
““As the son of the Muslim father, Senator Obama was born a Muslim under Muslim law as it is universally understood. It makes no difference that, as Senator Obama has written, his father said he renounced his religion. Likewise, under Muslim law based on the Koran his mother’s Christian background is irrelevant.”
154. There’s no way in hell he’ll lose Oregon, but I guess the Clintons are hoping for a storm.
And I think Rod Crosby is very likely right on Henley. Labour squeezed, Lib Dems make progress, Tories win very comfortably. Interesting from a Labour MP though.
Well the muslim story is mostly due to his time also in Indonesia a muslim country, and visiting Pakistan in his teens once (supposedly).
Either way he’s the nominee, but some statistical analysis by someone showed he currently has a 20% chance of becoming the president (for now).
The choice of VP is so very important right now, McCain could be a real winner if he choses a women, or Romney (Michigan edge).
I think Obama’s choice for VP will also be important. - But it won’t be Richardson for sure might be McCaskill (sp?) will give an edge is MO
162
Sure: I’m tempted to offer on betfair 2000$ at 1.09 that he wins there?
Anyone offering?
161. Oh, I’m sure the nutjobs will try to claim he should be. But under any reasonable understanding of it, Obama himself was never a Muslim. I just wanted that clarified.
Incidentally, I have no idea about what’s really true under mainstream Islamic law. The NYT is always as reliable on these things as you might think though.
159. A lot more *effectively* switched to the Conservatives in 1931 though, including the prime minister, even if it was nominally a coalition.
65. Frank Field is not going to defect to the Tories! Come on! His most recent complaint has been about redistribution, from the side of the poor!
164. Romney would be a terrible VP. The only thing he brings is money.
162. Bobby Jindal.
115. Nick is just putting in his application to become the New Labour Information Minister in the reshuffle.
Just listened to the Alan Johnson interview on Today. I think some of the reports on here were a little misleading. His defence of Brown and his attack on Field were strong and compelling.
I’m on Frank Field’s side but his explicit disloyalty has now made it incredibly difficult for sympathetic MPs to back him.
164
Why not Richardson? Too stupid, is my guess as to why not!
As to Romney for Mac: I’m not sure: a white rich hyper-capitalist mormon that is not all likable on TV?
Bobby Jindal, if he was not so essential as governor of Louisianna right now, would be just perfect, wouldn’t he?
170 Bobby Jindal
Would be my choice, too.
But he guy is too busy, apparently, in cleaning corrupted Louisianna…
Josh Kalven looks at how the Obama camps voter registration drives and potential differential turnout within the AA, Latino and youth demographic might tilt the electoral map decisively :
http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/features/obama-over-the-top
174. Apparently.
He needs to weigh up possible defeat versus the profile a run would give but he’s been a very busy boy with his national profile recently.
Its not been totally ruled out as an option.
170. You think Jindal is anything more than GOP bloggers who assume Obama’s appeal is down to the fact he’s not white, and propose one of the few non-whites they have?
The NYT might well be right, but even if Muslim law says Obama is a muslim, it doesn’t make him a muslim. Hinduism, in some readings, designates many people ‘untouchables’ doesn’t it? That doesn’t mean they are.
152. There were odds on which month Hillary would withdraw posted on here a few days ago. Having thought about it, my advice would be: avoid May (which was 6/1, by the way).
She is going to win in West Virginia, and by a large margin. It would be ludicrous to withdraw after that sort of result (and having won three of the previous four states). She can only really depart the stage when it looks like she’s been beaten. If she goes after a victory it will look as if she’s been playing games with the public, and they won’t thank her for that. Besides, with Oregon voting by post, it would look bad for Obama if one of his first election results as nominee-presumptive was only a narrow win to a candidate who’s already withdrawn. At a minimum, she’ll have to wait until after May 20th.
However, with Kentucky quite possibly going to give her another boost, she won’t be able to go then - so she’ll have to keep going through to the natural conclusion after June 3rd. That would provide a decent position from which to negotiate a withdrawal from the race in exchange for policy or other commitments.
177. Ask why 90% of black deomcrats vote for a black man….whats that?
kjh [80] http://tinyurl.com/4xh9nj
gives the results in full. Spoilt papers on the first round were massive.
178
That’s not waht is funny and exciting about it: it’s the coming Islamic fury about an Apostate US President!
166 The Grand Mufti of Egypt and of Al-Azhar University, one of the most senior clerics in Sunni Islam issued a Fatwa stating that it was wrong and against the teachings of the Koran to punish apostacy by death.
180. It’s them being offended after their initial choice started playing a subtle race card.
144 - I read that article in amazement, immediately prior to binning the copy of that waste of trees at work. What a load of rubbish. Aside from the point you make, that maybe wages might have to rise, they seemed to ignore the 1 million unemployed people in this country already who could perhaps be persuaded in that direction
177. Secondly, Jindal is young (since Obama will go on about McCain’s age), hes been around the block, he’s a high flyer and he’s got enough cred to be useful.
184. Bullshit.
Its them realising a black man could win. One of their own
Its their own race politics.
If 90% of white democrats voted for Clinton youd never hear the end of it.
It works both ways and I think thats fine, but it seems some people just can’t hack it and look for a cover story.
Re 117, Test, “116 indeed, Nick has been right before on internal party matters when the commentariat was saying the opposite. His words should cheer all Tories.”
Re 118, Stodge “On the subject of the Conservatives and the NHS, the Tories in 1945 did not believe the country could afford the Beveridge plan as it was constituted.”
Considering how long austerity went on for they may well have been right. That does not mean to say we did not have a vision for an NHS constituted in a different and more cost effective manner. I understand that we did though I am no expert on politics at that time in history.
122, portraying the Scottish LibDems as an extension of Scottish Labour worked superbly last year in the Scottish General Election.It cost the LibDems Gordon, Argyll and Roxburgh and Berwickshire in the parliamentary seats and saw their majorities in others reduced and in the Council elections on the same day, out of 32 councils, they lost the only council they controlled, in 11 they lost seats including major losses in councils where they were a major party like Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, East Dunbartonshire, Shetland and Inverclyde, they gained seats in 10 councils and either saw no change or had no seas in the remaining 11 councils. Every day both the SNP and Tories portray them as Labour loddy fodder in the SCottish Parliament and the Donald Trump planning fiasco showed them as riven by infighting. If they hold 6 of their 11 current Westminster seats they will do well.
Re 124, Lloyd, “114, 120- well I stand corrected. Somewhere along the line I picked up the idea that Churchill was dead against the idea… ah well.”
Surprised me when I found out too. Its one of many reasons I am proud to be a Conservative and will tell any ill educated lefty where to get off if they wish to imply we don’t care about the whole nation including the poor.
Jindal is the best thing going for the GOP at the moment. But there’s no need for him to be the VP right now, why would he want it?
If he wins, he’ll be part of a lame duck presidency from day one, two democrat dominated houses and the twin albatrosses of the credit crunch and the Iraq War.
If he loses, he’s damaged goods.
Best off to wait two terms and run at the top of the ticket.
189 - “If they hold 6 of their 11 current Westminster seats they will do well.”
Do you bet? Would you like to on this?
191. Because he can afford to lose and still look a star.
187. That’s certainly part of it, but let’s not pretend the Clintons didn’t lose the black vote as much as Obama won it. And when Obama loses Appalachian regions by 40 points, lets not pretend that isn’t in part down to certain demographics being suspicious of a black candidate. Obama suffers due to his skin colour as much as he gains from it. And much of it is due to policy position. Had Condoleeza Rice been up against Bill Clinton in the 1990s you really think blacks would have gone 90% her way?
Besides, this is irrelevant to the point I was making regarding Jindal. Clearly nobody would think picking a South Asian wouldn’t lessen Obama’s appeal to African Americans. No, what they are thinking is that Obama appeals to whites and the media because of the novelty of him being black, and think that having an ethnic minority on their ticket will neuter this. There’s no other reason for suggesting Jindal: there are plenty other young conservatives. He’s been in a significant political position for what, one year? Plus he doesn’t have any charisma whatsoever, and wouldn’t bring in a swing state.
189 - Scottish Elections - LD net loss one seat. Big deal!
Losses on 11 councils, gains on 10 big deal.
Lost seats where they were a major player. Yep, that abolition of FPTP for you.
The Scottish elections were disappointing for the LDs but no disaster.
193. Can he afford to win?
Staying in Louisiana keeps him as a star and as the “king across the water.”
was newsnight presented by gordon in a dress tonight? very scary.
191. You don’t get blamed for a loss as VP. The Republican party actually has a lot of young talent staying clear this year. A dearth of ability is not one of their problems for the future.
189/192-Which seats do you think they’ll hold?
Orkney&Shetland
Caithness&Ross
Ross, Skye&Lochaber
Inverness&Nairn
Fife NE
Edinburgh W?
And lose
2 Grampian seats? Can’t see SNP winning Aberdeenshire W, or can they, or Tory surprise gain? Gordon, probably under threat though
Berwickshire-could well be a gonner
Argyll-they seem under pressure
Dumbartonshire E-Labour to win seats? Doubtful but maybe possible
Dumfermline-by election wins are always tricky to hold.
194. What I’m saying is that you think its down to his colour that the GOP might want him on the ticket.
Given that you have no criticism of 90% of Deomcratic blacks voting for their man, largely because he is black and one of their own is there anything wrong with the GOP thinking about colour?
No.
To think one is legitimate and the other not is somehow…
198. How many VPs have gone on to do well in their own bids for president? Any? Other than Bush Snr? (genuine question)
199 - those six holds are all pretty save, though you never know with Inverness.
Ab’shire W is pretty safe. For Gordon, Malcolm Bruce v SNP challenger is a far better bet than Alex Salmond v dull LD incumbent. I think Jo Swinson will hold on too. She has a sizeable majority.
Argyll, and Mike Moore’s seat are more of a threat though. Dunfermline - who knows?
Nixon
Johnson
Truman, all won on their own.
Though Nixon is probably the only “legitimate one” in that he did not succeed to the Presidency mid-term.
202-I think to get down to 6 seats there are a couple of long shots. But, some seats have low electorates and so a small change in votes means a big % change.
Also, I think the LDs will challenge strongly in at least 2 Edinburgh seats.
Black voters seemed to have no problem voting for Clinton I, Kerry, Gore etc, women voters similarly. What has been instructive is that Obama eats much more into Clinton’s ‘proud to vote for someone like me’ vote that Clinton does into Obama’s. That’s what an inclusive rather than an exclusive strategy gets you.
There’s a great article by a West Virginia resident as to why that state is important here, a 50 state strategy is just that, not going to where you can get votes but to where people may not have heard the message.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/12/114237/630/544/513035
Re 172, Gabble, “I’m on Frank Field’s side but his explicit disloyalty has now made it incredibly difficult for sympathetic MPs to back him.”
What was Frank supposed to do? They got him to call off the hounds on the basis of private briefings and then have not only refused to give the same assurances in public but have been back peddling on them!
Frank Field is being loyal, it is Brown is is the lying scheming disloyal f*ck wit.
195. “The Scottish elections were disappointing for the LDs but no disaster.”
Yes, but you have to look at it in the context of the expectations game - everyone had been assuming they would end up with 20+ seats and become the third largest party. In fact, after their success in the 2005 general election, some Lib Dems seemed to seriously believe that Nicol Stephen was going to be the next First Minister - the theory being that having ‘replaced’ the SNP as the main opposition to Labour, they would be best-placed to benefit from any anti-Labour mood.
WV used to be a Dem banker, even winning it in 1988 but this year it seems to be firmly in the Rep column from everything I read. I don’t think having Hilalry or Obama at the top of the ticket will change this.
200. Has anyone ever been on the ticket and lost. Then come back and won?
111.”I you want to see white knuckle contests between the LibDems and Tories then look north to Scotland at the next election. The Tories want their seats back and in Scotland the LibDems are seen as part of the New Labour establishment having been “in bed” with them for most of the past decade.”
Easterross, you are correct about that, there is a real hunger and enthusiasm to do just that. It will be interesting to see how the present financial mess that Aberdeen council finds itself in effects the standing of all the parties in the run up to the next GE. The timing of this is really disastrous for the Libdems in particular, they must be hoping that this does not lead to the further erosion of their vote in the North East. Also it will be important for the SNP administration at Holyrood that the fallout is effectively managed so that it does not rebound on them too.
138.”I actually think he is Labour’s John Major figure. A rather grey but consensual figure who handles the media deftly and confidently.”
I agree with your assessment stjohn.
205. They voted for one of their own race especially when they thought he could win.
Theres nothing wrong with that if thats how they want to analyse it but its a classic case of looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck.
Its a duck.
Re 183, Ted “166 The Grand Mufti of Egypt and of Al-Azhar University, one of the most senior clerics in Sunni Islam issued a Fatwa stating that it was wrong and against the teachings of the Koran to punish apostacy by death.”
Yes, but sensible high ranking Muslim clerics just don’t make good copy, so who cares?
209-Nixon lost in 1960.
The Slate “Hillary Deathwatch” slips again ….
http://www.slate.com/id/2191194/
206. Spot on.
Frank knows hes going to get hung by plenty in the PLP anyway and probably see much apparent support for his stance disappear when it comes to the crunch.
But hes going for the throat anyway.
Good on him.
Did I hear on Newsngith we’re getting a “Pre” Queens Speech on Wednesday? Six months before the real Queens Speech? What the hell is that all about?
206. Benedict White: “What was Frank supposed to do?”
I don’t think there is any doubt at all that Field has damaged his campaign with his very personal attack on the PM.
He should have kept quiet, organised his support and allowed the looming vote to lever further concessions in private.
211 - Didn’t work for Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton; people vote for someone who makes them proud to be who they are and they didn’t cut it. Maybe Clinton should have made more women proud that she was potentially the first woman president.
201. Bush Snr in 1988 was the first incumbent Veep to be elected to the presidency since Van Buren in 1836….
209. Nixon, most obviously. Also FDR was VP nominee in 1920, twelve years before being elected president.
203. Johnson and Truman were both presidents at the time, so don’t really count (you can add Coolidge and Teddy Roosevelt that that list as well). Bush snr was the first VP to be directly elected president since Martin van Buren in 1837.
219. OK, the election was in 1836; he became president in 1837.
218. Neither of those could win…..
217. Well, lets see what the government come up with, before we right off Fields campaign.
And as far as Fields personal attack on Brown goes, of course he will be completely vindicated come general election night.
212
Sure, there are plenty of intelligent, peaceful muslims; yet, Islam — as an theologico-political doctrine — does promotes explicitly the punition of Apostates, by many means, including bloody murder.
222 - Because blacks didn’t vote for them in enough numbers, the chicken came before that egg.
225 - Further, if your own constituency won’t vote for you in enough numbers then why should the rest of the country?
Has there ever been a president who got by by ignoring or carrying their own constituency? Serious question, I don’t know.
Does anyone have a list of the 78 MPs who voted against the 2nd reading of the Embryology bill?
Would be interested in names and Party breakdown if possible.
Re 215, Yokel, “Good on him.” Yep!
Re 216, GIN “Did I hear on Newsngith we’re getting a “Pre” Queens Speech on Wednesday? Six months before the real Queens Speech? What the hell is that all about?”
He did the same last year, it is supposed to be some sort of innovation. I am not convinced. (In theory it allows people to shout down silly ideas before the government becomes wedded to them though).
Re 217, Gabble, “He should have kept quiet, organised his support and allowed the looming vote to lever further concessions in private.”
He already had all the concessions he wanted in private, the problem was that in public they were not only not repeated but statements were made which contradicted those private assurances. So what would be the point in getting private concessions when he knows they would be utter lies?
212
About the BBC (not exactly a right-wing Murdochian News organization, right?):
“Former Muslims who convert to Christianity are threatened with disownment and violence at the hands of their own family members – much like in parts of the Middle East. But the difference is these families don’t reside in a theocratic society, but in a western country that upholds religious freedom – including the right to convert to another faith.
BBC, U.K.’s leading news network, featured several stories and programs in recent months devoted to the issue of persecution of Christian converts from Islam. In its latest feature on Monday, it highlighted real cases of England-based Muslims who convert to Christianity and the consequences that follow.”
http://www.christianpost.com/article/20080422/32063_When_Muslims_Embrace_Christianity_in_the_U.K.__.htm
Re 224, Philippe Magnan “Sure, there are plenty of intelligent, peaceful muslims; yet, Islam — as an theologico-political doctrine — does promotes explicitly the punition of Apostates, by many means, including bloody murder.”
Would you like me to quote the Bible on subjects like having BBQ’s? Or can we just leave this b*llsh1r asside?
202.SBS, if I was a Libdem I would be concerned about both Inverness and WAK. I know that the SNP really fancy their chances in Danny Alexander’s seat and the Conservatives will be fighting hard to unseat Robert Smith.
I don’t think that either seat is anywhere near as safe for Libdems as the 2005 results would indicate. Also think that they are in danger of going backwards in Aberdeen South, which until recently they must have hoped would be a possible gain.
I think that Malcolm Bruce has a large personal following, but again it will be interesting to see how recent political mood changes effect him.
Paul
Face they are voting in those numbers for him because he is black. Otherwise theyd be more reflective of traditional party and policy factional lines.
90% clearly suggests not because that split, to that extent, is not reflected anywhere else at all amongst women, age groups or anything else.
There is therefore no other explanation.
Why it appears some white people, and it is white people, cant just live with that is beyond me. You can argue all night but you know deep down what the story is and I know you know.
Why are you trying so hard to excuse it?
Because you believe its somehow bad but cant admit to that.
Re 229, Philippe, I do not doubt it goes on, but the question is how wide spread it is, whether it is actually theologically correct and whether it will continue to be mainstream in the years to come.
I would point out though that I can’t see it being an issue in an American election.
231 - The guy wheeled out to spout the rubbish that M. Magnan is parroting, Edward Luttvak (doesn’t sound as though he knows Islam from personal experience), put right here.
“No call to prayer in the ear, not raised as a Muslim, born to an atheist father, and then abandoned to a Christian mother both by father and his family, equals not Muslim. Obama is right to say he had no religion until he became a Christian.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ali-eteraz/obama-islam-smear-changes_b_101337.html
As the article says, this is the same smear tactic the BNP used against Boris Johnson. Be careful the sides you take.
228. Yes Benedict, I remember we had a “pre” Queens Speech last year, but that was just before the summer recess, wasn’t it? May seems mightily early to begin thinking about the Queens Speech in November. To me, it smacks as a desperate attempt to move the agenda on to policy. You can’t really blame Brown for that, but the timing of this feels more like panic to me. It will also give David Cameron two opportunitys to savage Brown on Wednesday. One in PMQ’s and the other in his pre Queens Speech reply.
BTW, why does Brown think that by announcing policy after policy, the public will somehow warm to him? The fact is, over the last 11 years we’ve had WAAAAAYYYYYY too much policy. Too many bills. Too many white papers/green paper/purple spots papers. We’ve been seriously over-governed and its just one of many aspects of Labour that people are fed up about.
I think the Conservatives are on to something by not dashing head long into policy announcements. The country wants/need fewer policys and less government. Then the legislation that is implemented needs to be better and much more robust.
If I was Cameron, I’d pledge to do an audit of every Bill the government has introduced in my first year, and where it isn’t of any benefit to the public, scrap it. In other words, spend the first year of a Cameron government getting the government out of our hair, and kitchens, and bedrooms, toilets, cars….
232 -
You seem to think it’s a bad thing, I can’t follow your argument as to why though. If he was winning only a small percentage of the white vote then it would be a problem - but he isn’t.
I also don’t think that so don’t try and make it sound as though I do - I don’t.
233
No doubt it won’t be an issue.
—–
“It is time to reassert British values. That means disposing of the first taboo, and accepting that the problem is Islam. Islam is the problem. To any non-Muslim reader of the Koran, Islamophobia — fear of Islam — seems a natural reaction, and, indeed, exactly what that text is intended to provoke.”
–BORIS JOHSON, quoted here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/the_boris_johnson_effect.html
Don’t think this has been posted yet, but some good news for Gordo today:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7396899.stm
The BA plane crash at Heathrow in January wasn’t his fault. Apparently.
Frank Field may disagree…
236. If they want to vote on race, thats up to them. I don’t consider a bad thing at all.
Its how people, usually white, try to explain this 90% figure in terms other than what it is.
Black Democrats for voted for a black candidate who has a chance of winning. Once they had that chance of winning his colour became central to their vote.
200. I never said it would be illegitimate for Republicans to put Jindal on the ticket because of his skin colour - it would just be stupid. Last time I checked the South Asian demographic in the US wasn’t large enough to swing elections. The idea that he will neuter Obama’s star power because whites are voting for him from an Affirmative Action mindset is just GOP bloggers being idiots. McCain and his advisers know better than to fall for such myths.
232. I do agree that one part of blacks voting for Obama is down to the “someone like me” element, but we can’t infer that from the 90-10 voting pattern. African-Americans voted for Bill Clinton by similar margins.
Hopefully, the irony of the juxtaposition of posts 234 & 237 should not be lost…..
236
As approx.60% of news laws are now passed down by edict from the EU;Scotland and Wales to a lesser extent does their own thing,a cull of at least 100 MP’s is long overdue.
241
Yup!
242 in reply to 235
240. Maybe its Jindals talent?
You seem to dismiss that as an option.
If McCains team arent going to fall for the myths then their reasons for having him as a consideration must be because of something else mustnt it then.
239 - I’m lost now - you said “Why are you trying so hard to excuse it? Because you believe its somehow bad but cant admit to that.”
Followed by - “If they want to vote on race, thats up to them. I don’t consider [it] a bad thing at all.”
So others can’t think it’s not a bad thing but you can?
242. I’d agree to that as well. We need fewer MP’s, more represetative boundries and a stronger legislative chamber.
247. The boundaries at the next election will be the fairest in living memory and probably ever in the history of the UK.
One of my farmer friends stopped me the other day and wanted to talk politics.
“How’s your new Prime Minister, Harold Brown doing?”
“No, George Brown,” I replied.
Mrs Malc19ken looked exasperated.
“Gordon Brown!!’
I guess that says a lot about Gordon Brown; or possibly me.
Malcolm
248. and 73.8% of statistics are made up on the spot…
245. That’s my point. The only “consideration” he is being given is by right-wing bloggers unable to comprehend Obama’s success. Jindal really isn’t that talented as politician: people don’t warm to him and he speaks like James Carville. He has plenty of time to improve on that and maybe he will be a future star. But a year as a House member (which really isn’t that important a position) and one year as Governor hasn’t showcased anything yet.
235. All these supposed policy announcements are meaningless as they have no relevance to the average person and therefore nobody is taking any notice of them.
I’ve asked before and I’ll ask again. What is Brown ACTUALLY going to do as PM that ordinary people are ACTUALLY going to notice has had an ACTUAL positive effect on them?
Nobody has ever attempted to answer this question.
If you asked in an opinion poll “Please name one positive action Brown has done as PM” I’m sure at least 95% of people could not name one single thing. (I’m talking about positive actions, not the long list of problems like Northern Rock etc).
The advance Queen’s Speech will not change this.
House prices worst in 30 years (actually since records began)..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1949797/House-prices-fall-worst-since-1978,-says-RICS.html
Will Cameron’s candyfloss suit the mood once this really starts to bite?
Re 235, GIN “To me, it smacks as a desperate attempt to move the agenda on to policy. You can’t really blame Brown for that, but the timing of this feels more like panic to me. It will also give David Cameron two opportunitys to savage Brown on Wednesday. One in PMQ’s and the other in his pre Queens Speech reply.”
Sorry about that, crossed wires. I did not realise it was going to be earlier. yes completely daft and panic stricken. Another relaunch that will of course sink without trace like all the others.
246. Wrong way round Paul, I think its perfectly acceptable.
You seemed to have difficulty initially and instead quoted a lot of other things other he’s black they are black.
Its that simple.
251. He’s on the shortlist for reasons other than his colour.
250. Try looking at the Boundary Commission Report.
In the most recent review (2006 Report), a far stronger emphasis was placed on getting constituencies as equal in size as possible. The review contains a detailed comparison to the previous review in 1994 and the 2006 review has produced far more equal constituencies than the 1994 review.
If you go back to earlier reviews, London boroughs were not even paired leading to much greater distortions.
Big exam on Political Ideologies tomorrow and I’ve been enjoying the sun too much! *stress levels high*
Re 237, Philippe “It is time to reassert British values. That means disposing of the first taboo, and accepting that the problem is Islam. Islam is the problem. To any non-Muslim reader of the Koran, Islamophobia — fear of Islam — seems a natural reaction, and, indeed, exactly what that text is intended to provoke”
Sorry, are you trying to use a Boris quote as the intellectual underpinning of your argument?
255 - In which case you are trying to ascribe views to others which don’t exist merely in order to back up your argument.
That’s not worthy of you.
At no point was I ever excusing, how can you when you don’t see it as a problem?
253. Well Rod, the public will have more faith in Cameron than brown, who never let it be forgot said that there would never again be a recession. That he alone was responsible for Britains economic miracle. No more TORY boom and bust.
After all of those daft claims, the public will be left blaming Brown totally (and perhaps unfairly) for the economic prolems we have and are about to endure.
Re 238, Bob Sykes “The BA plane crash at Heathrow in January wasn’t his fault. Apparently.
Frank Field may disagree… ;-)”
Others also
255. Well then that puts us back to my original colour. What’s he got beyond the supposed infatuation that rich whites will have with his race? Please, I’d really like to hear the case made for him.
255. And what makes you think he’s on McCain’s shortlist?
Re 253, Rod Crosby “Will Cameron’s candyfloss suit the mood once this really starts to bite?”
Well, a lot more than the misery of Gordon Brown or Clegover!
264. If Blair “Whiter Than White” rhetoric came back to do him serious damage in the years before Brown hounded him out, Browm “NO More TORY Boom And Bust” will be the slogan that comes back to haunt him over this next couple of years (assuming he last that long)
In the end, you reap what you sow.
258: “Sorry, are you trying to use a Boris quote as the intellectual underpinning of your argument?” Entirely understand your incredulity, Benedict
Re 266, Nick Palmer ““Sorry, are you trying to use a Boris quote as the intellectual underpinning of your argument?” Entirely understand your incredulity, Benedict :-)”
I am also pleased that you have given us your assurance that our ace card (Gordon Brown) will still be in play at the general election!
Its not so much that, but it is a quote lifted completely out of its context.
265 GB,if he does not preside over bust,will,preside over a ‘feel-crap’ factor ( as phrase I first coined 4-6 weeks ago,and lay a patent to :lol:)
Seriously ,thoguh,the next major indicator is by what margin Labour lose C+N-a few hundred,c 10%,and even hardened Lbaourites could say ‘Well,after 11 years..’.
Much worse than that,and I can foresee a spiral of events that within months sees Gb,for however spurious ‘health grounds’,resigning as Labour leader-and PM
Re 268, Patrick, many of us on the right have been pointing out that we have been in joyless growth mode for some years now.
I mean, why can’t our farmers just pay British workers to pick strawberries?
The answer is to keep wages down to keep prices low. The problem here is that you start to get a situation where few of the indigenous electorate feel a benefit to any growth we have because they don’t get pay rises as the economy grows.
268. Patrick - if that happened, wouldn’t it be highly appropriate for him to go out making a statement nobody believed? To use David Cameron’s words “treating people like fools”.
If he does go this year, then surely supporters of all paries would have to agree he would be ranked the worst PM since 1945.
In modern times, he would rank alongside IDS as the only Party leader to be ejected before even getting the chance to fight a GE. But IDS did at least manage to last 2 years as Party leader. And of course being ejected as PM is far worse and far more difficult than as Opposition leader.
270 - Are you not counting Ming the Merciless as he was a LD?
271. To be honest he had slipped my mind but I guess he doesn’t really count as a LD!
Don’t know which is funnier, the findings of this poll, or the sour way that Glen Oglaza has reported what in essence is a light hearted poll for a woman’s magazine which does not aim to appeal to women who want deep political analysis. Lighten up for goodness sake, and don’t let Mark Senior near the details or we could see an in depth analysis that sees Libdem support growing in all the wrong places.
Cam’s The Man
Enough of this idiocy about the Muslim Menace, when the REAL threat to the safety of all we hold dear & holy is radical, extremist CORNISH NATIONALISM . . .
Mebyon Kernow is playing a very sly game in Crewe & Nantwich. For example, not filing a candidate.
But you can bet the finest pastie a drunken Cornishman can procure (and that’s the word) in a St. Ives knocking shop, that MK has subborned one or more of other candidates to do their Transtamarian dirty work . . .
I don’t buy the “Brown to quit” stuff but just out of interest how long did Douglas-home and Bonar Law do ? the nearest competitors for shortest serving PM since Rosebery ?
Thats why I think he won’t go.
Two threads ago
What is the meaning and/or significance of the references to “Number 31″?
It last happened in 2000 and then again in 2006, but it won’t be until 2017 that candidates will again be able in the local elections use the slogan “May The 4th Be With You”.
I predict
Con 14,100
Lab 9,800
LD 8,200
Green 800
UKIP 500
OMRLP 240
ED 190
Ind (MW) 130
CToDaP 100
Ind (GG) 30
I predict (Henley)
Con 15,300
LD 11,400
Lab 1,300
Green 800
UKIP 400
202 & 231 The Lib Dems should be fine in Dunfermline - remember they gained the similar Scottish Parliament seat comfortably in May 2007.
275. Bonar Law had throat cancer.
I think that there is a certain ammount of humbug on this thread about the Liberal Democrats in Scotland. As always, much is to do with the personality of the MP- so I think Malcolm Bruce is perfectly safe against any SNP challenge. Sir Robert Smith is also popular and hardworking, and I don’t see a threat there. Alastair Carmichael must be happy in Orkney and Shetland, and John Thurso and Charles Kennedy equally secure in their seats. Danny Alexander has a tougher test- simply because his seat is growing so fast, but if he does the work, he should be fine. Argyll will be a tough fight, but there is still a strong local base to work from, and the SNP may also face some local pressure. Fife NE is perfectly safe. Edinburgh West is absolutely solid- and the Lib Dems can be optimisic about gaining Edinburgh South. Dumbarton benefits from a very recognisable MP, and Willie Rennie also looks well entrenched in Dunfermline. Berwickshire is tricky, but Mike Moore has taken a step back from the frontline to focus on defending the seat. So while Argyll and Berwick will be tough battles, the rest look OK, and there is still the chance of a gain in Edinburgh- as usual it seems to me, the Lib Dems political opponants are underestimating them.
282. I think Aberdeenshire W and Kincardine is vulnerable simply because it looks so much like a natural Tory seat and the Tories remain strong in local govt. Also, they have a strong candidate in Alex Johnstone MSP. If people want a change of govt in a seat like this they will transfer back to the Tories.
In Gordon, it’s worth bearing in mind that Malcolm Bruce will have Alex Salmond campaigning against him in an area which is becoming SNP heartland. I’m not saying Bruce is a goner but it will certainly be a scrap.
Charles Kennedy must be safe - but the other Highland seats (Argyll/Caithness etc/Inverness etc) will see significant swings to the SNP which will slash the majorities.