Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting
May 13th, 2008
Could the revised tax plan stem the Tory surge?
The chart shows the changes in the Labour betting price for Crewe and Nantwich, expressed as an implied probability, during a day which has seen the government trying to get out of the hole it has dug itself into over the 10% tax rate.
Clearly Brown and his team were thinking of next week’s election when they decided to make the statement to try to shoot this particular fox.
The only problem is that it does not smack of firm government if the party in power keeps on changing tack all the time - and there’s the question of increasing overall government borrowing to pay for the plan.
As I have repeatedly argued C&N is about turnout. Will Labour voters feel motivated enough to go to the polls. This might help them along a little bit.
Mike Smithson
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Repost from previous
Disassociating from the politics I’m glad they’ve almost sorted this out.
Bringing them back in it’s been a mess and a shambles and at this stage this is probably the best thing they could have done. I imagine this will make those that stayed at home two weeks ago more likely to vote Labour but not as likely to switch back from Blue to Red. I’ll go with Lab +2, Con -1, Lib -1 for the next set of polls on the back of this.
I don’t mind if Labour hold it - we need Brown in govt for a few months more - with him leading the fight back its curtains for labour!
Mr Robinson seems to have calmed down. a much more measured view?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/05/a_political_eme.html
Just saw Darling on the News. He looked a broken man close to tears. I felt sorry for him actually - he has been ordered to sacrifice his own credibility to save the ghastly, bungling Brown. Brown is clearly a cruel man, if this is how he treats his friends.
3, amusing to read the comments of his earlier statement, almost universally stating that the increased borrowing is a bad thing.
The long term implications of this are huge. Brown’s standard response about Tory black holes, uncosted policies and tax cuts have been blown out of the water. If this fails to save Crewe then he could well be toast.
I think he reads his comments and reacts accordingly.
2 - Nonsense. It is ridiculous to play down Tory hopes. If they don’t win it, it is bad news for them. If they do, it is good news for them and very good news if they do it by a good margin. A 10% swing, as has been said many times before is a more than achievable swing for an Opposition. You can’t spin it as some sort of tactical victory if you lose - it would calm Labour nerves and the press would stop betting on a Tory general election win and therefore get more negative.
Nick Robinson is haunted by his Tory past so to swat away any bias allegations, he gives bias to Labour.
Despite the news on this U-turn Mail and Express will lead on house prices (unless something major happens in the next five hours)
How long one wonders begore Nick Palmer comes on to tell us how wonderfully Darling’s u turn has been received and how EVERYONE on the doorstep in Broxtowe was talking about the 10p issue……
If Brown and Darling wanted some good headlines they’re not getting them. To my astonishment the BBC emphasised only the panic and massive cost. Labour have blown themselves to smithereens over this debacle. All really rather sad.
By the way, no one has noted what lousy tactics this is. If Labour still only have a one in four chance of winning this by-election, the ensuing panic will be that much greater than it would have been otherwise if it is perceived as a rejection of this peace offering. Sell Brown now.
9. In the Young Conservatives, he was nicknamed Red Robbo.
Oh God - here we go again!
Something happens in politics - cue Tory whiners say the Beeb is biased towards Labour…
15-You suggest they are biased to the Tories? It is not unusual for the state broadcaster to be biased towards the government. In this repect Britain is quite unusual in that this was not the case when the Tories were in power.
The BBC certainly have their own agenda which is far closer to the “progressive movement” than to conservatism (note small c). That they themselves probably do not perceive themselves to be biased is a different matter.
I look forward to the BBC poll tax being abolished though in the next Conservative government.
12. Scanning the news channels and internet comment pages, I think the Brown/Darling hydra has actually made things WORSE with his tax swerve.
What a bunch of idiots!
I suspect the voters will treat it akin to “if you beat your wife and then buy her flowers, does it make it alright”?
ITV News was absolutely scathing… Bradby says Labour will never again be able to accuse the Tories of ‘unfunded tax cuts’.
17. I haven’t checked up much, but the BBC headline does highlight the panic over this. All in all this entire debacle has seriously dented the government, not to mention showed a frightening lack of political nouse from Brown. Most people (I hope) see this u-turn for what it is, a mess up that has taken the government months to find a solution too, and then it involves borrowing a laod of money, something they’ve been trying to make out the tories as wanting to do!
16 - no, I don’t think they are biased towards the Tories either. As a Liberal Democrat I get a bit frustrated at the lack of coverage the LDs get, but that is partly the party’s fault. So I do not whinge about it.
I really can’t see in the whole scheme of things a pro-Labour bias. Labour rows - Brown v Blair - always got a lot of coverage. Foreign coverage - from Lebanon, to Iraq has hardly been in love with Labour… and John Humphrys is very small “c” conservative on Radio 4. On local radio the Beeb has had some very unPC presenters - John Gaunt for one.
The Tories won’t abolish the licence fee for two reasons:-
-they are not that stupid
-even in stupid moments, they lack the balls
As per the original post, the only question here is “will this be enough for all those C&N 2005 Labour voters that said ‘don’t know’ to go for Dunwoody”
I suppose it might, although one could say that ICM have already discounted that by 50%.
Still, I’m sticking to my original position. This election can be close and therefore Labour are value.
Having just watched the BBC News at 6 I was vbey surprised on their take.
It was very negative. Robinson saying you can’t rewrite a budget after 6 weeks and say you are a prudent lot who represent stability. Also stressing its political rather than econonmic and looks like it was done in panic.
Their business editor complaining about the borrowing figures and suggesting it will make an interest rate cut less likely [ie the Gord gives and the BoE will have to take away].
This just might be like the IHT stuff and come back and bite them.
If we don’t get rate cuts are they going to come back and say, ‘Oh its because….’
Nick Robinson looks a bloody idiot this afternoon. At least his u-turns are same-day
12 Sorry You said it before me. Had to go off and feed the hoards mid post.
As a result I missed ITVs take on it.
23
Its amazing given what was posted about Robinsons inital response about Tory shoes not shining so much.
Nick Palmer talked recently of the Westminster bubble. I think perhaps Nick Robinson was momentarily caught up in it. I’d like to see what he says on the 10pm news….
SBS - Never underestimate the stupidity of the Conservative party! Or the Labour Party, or even at times the Liberal Democrats.
Too little, too late, too opportunistic and too few Labour voters in C&N. Conservative gain.
Read somewhere that the PSBR (or whatever it is now called) could mushroom to around £150bn in a worse case scenario. This would be more thas 3 times the forecast outturns.
Today we have seen inflation higher. Right it will increase VAT and other tax receipts, but the inflation drivers are council tax and mortgages (no VAT), food (limited VAT), domestic fuel (5% VAT) although petrol / derv do have higher tax take. But pensions and other benefits will now have to rise by more than anticipated unless inflation turns down by the Autumn. The net effect will be increased borrowing.
Also this week the forecasts for growth are being scaled back which will reduced government income and increase expenditure. Hence more borrowing. Yesterday Northern Rock revealed that their arrears had increased - potentially more borrowing.
Now today the best part of an additional £3bn to fund the increased personal allowances.
What is the chance that bit by bit the borrowing figures will grow and grow until they start approaching the worst case levels?
I wonder if Nick Robinson actually wrote the 1st version.
This won’t save Labour in C and N. What they are hoping for it to run it quite close.
Eastbourne got rid of Thatcher, and Ribble Valley got rid of the poll tax. The Tories lost both safe seats by about 4,000, bad results, but close enough to suggest the final meltdown was not there.
But the Tories lost Newbury by 22,000 and Christchurch by 15,000 during the 1992-7 Parliament.
A Tory win by 6,000 may just get rid of Brown. But a Tory win by 12,000 - then IT’S THE FINAL MELTDOWN! (Cue synthesisers, guitars and 1980s hairstyles).
Labour know they have lost C and N. It’s just damage limitation now.
27 - I have never underestimated the stupidity of my own party.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 49%
McCain 44% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 50%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107248/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Democratic-Lead-50-44.aspx
.. oh and never understimate the BBC website ,. The News headline is “Basic rate taxpayers to get £120″.
Perish the thought that it should read “U turn on 10p issue”
28) Jacks you sound worried?
I am afraid I have missed Nick Robinson’s contortions. What were they? His evening report was not a Labour love in.
Very few people know both their average, and their marginal, rate of tax. Not even us anoraks (except those who are accountants, and they don’t count).
The only issue is how Darling’s announcement is received and reported.
Some more of availability of the tories @ 4/5 for C & N would be nice….
36. His blog, look at the last two entries.
34 -
“Basic rate taxpayers to get £120″. = FACT
“U turn on 10p issue” = INTERPRETATION - since the 10p rate remains abolished.
and which are the general public more interested in reading first?
Sally
http://blogs.bbc.co.uk/nickrobinson/
In 1966 wilson promised a bridge over the Humber to win a by election in Hull. The eventuaL cost when it opened in 1981 was over 150 million pounds. Crewe and Nantwich is costing 2.7 billion. Is this the most expensive by election ever?
I know I have defended Robinson here tonight, but I do feel his whole approach is a bit tacky. I long for the halcyon days of John Cole. He really did have his finger on the pulse. Robin Oakley was OK; Marr was just weird.
12, didn’t see the BBC, but just seen ITV. Sub-optimal for the government, as Mister Palmer might say.
31. SBS. I agree. A big Tory win could be the end for Brown.
If the media promote this possibility and portray The C and N vote as a vote on Brown’s leadership, then it could mobilise the Anti-Brown vote and topple him.
25 PC. No. Just my very simple assessment of the calamity that is about to befall Labour in C&N.
U turn on 10 p issue is FACT as most of the losers have been compensated, its akin to reintroducing it.
41 - 2.7 billion. Bloody hell, even Ashcroft can’t match that!
Various people on the previous thread: If you feel that tax rates are too low, and you are not paying enough then there is a simple solution. Send a cheque for however much you like to the government. They will not reject it. Do not complain that I and everyone else should pay more tax just to make you feel better. It is my money, that the government confiscates some of, not the government’s money that it gives me!
45) I dunno Jack, you seem agitated - even posted a gallup Obama / Clinton match-up - surely a sign of restless leg and itchy trigger finger?
41 Fernando. Politician give election bribe shock !!
In other news ….
Watford lose football match …. Scotsman drinks whisky …. John Redwood revealed a Klingon and Pope seen praying !!
42. Marr was weird! I would agree their - Maybe he should rent his services out as a vladimir putin look alike? Has Putin and Marr ever been seen in the same room? It is a bit like Douglas and Wendy Alexander - Has anybody seen them in the same room at the same time?
51 - or indeed Neil Kinnock and Nick Clegg…
BBC News 24 calling it a U turn…..
What Darling has done does not remedy the poorly paid situation.
If you earn just £8,000 you are still £60 worse off but if you earn £30000 you are £379 better off.
49 PC. Ok ….. I’m agitated …. I seem to have lost puppy Harry for a few hours !!
48-I notice none of those clamouring for higher (cue “fairer”) taxes have yet publicly announced on here that they will be sending an additional tax cheque because they feel they can afford it, taxes are “too low”, to help redistribute wealth (to civil servants), etc.
Surely someone here can put their chequebooks where their mouths are.
56 - but this is no surprise. Opinion polls often show that people back tax rises, but ones that bite at a slightly higher of income than they earn at present!
51. I would ask Nick Palmer but i am in his bad books for repeatedly asking him if he supports Gordon Brown as PM!
He hates saying the line as much as most people do listening to it! (No doubt Nick Palmer does support gordon Brown by the way!) 
I saw Ed Balls at it this morning saying he supported Gordon Brown …..Blah … Blah!!! 
Cringe worthy7 it reminds me of the tories in the 90’s and Ginny bottomley and Gillian Sheppard on telly saying ” i support John Major etc. Basic rule of thumb: It is over when that startment gains regular currency.
52. Luckily for Nick Clegg he does not look like Neil Kinnock - If he did i think we would be talking single figures and not less than 30!
58 - the worst thing is when people say they support somebody and actually mean it.
After Kennedy revealed his drinking, but before he quit, I cringed at seeing Mike Hancock and Lembit / Oaten publicly backing him.
The obvious interesting kybosh on the governments mini budget is will the government guarentee to keep the tax threshold and up it in line with inflation? Because of course fiscal dragg could melt the threshold changes prestty quickly.
60. Yes, i feel a bit bad about giving Nick hassle about it! But it must be the sadistic side of my personality!
The public support thing is cringe worthy. Thank goodness we did not have that for the first 9 or 10 years of blair! At least Blair could do something for me! Stop the I support …… lines, that said the tories had more than their fair share in IDS’s time.
It depends. For all the talk is 10p really the big issue, or is it the price of food?
61
I reiterate my call that soem time the Government will be FORCED to raise taxes.
Spending is out of control and revenues are iffy.
Mr Micawber would turn in his grave…
63 - inflation starting to bite as the energy price cuts of last summer start to drop out of the calculations. With more energy price hikes likely, for inflation, as Yazz said… “The only way is up, yeah baby.”
63. Interesting point - Food or Petrol could raise it’s head again. If the 10p tax can be changed - would fuel protests bring down the price at the pumps by cutting the fuel charge.
On reflection the government has signed its own death warrant today! Brown will not be laughing next week - he has succombed to his short term victory for long term defeat again.
61-I think it is these questions that will start popping up over the next few days as the news is digested.
I woudl be very surprised if we get a straight answer. Remember Tony and Gordon in 2001 sayng tax rates would not rise, but avoiding answering the question re NI? I suspect Darling will avoid giving a straight answer and with a press corps sniffing for blood he will get a harder time.
66. Today’s measure makes the autumn fuel increase more likely not less!
38&40 Thanks guys.
64-Reduce the turkey army by 10% a year!!!
Tax vegetarian food!
Tax bicycles!
Just imagine.
Gordon Brown rose in his Budget 2007. Announced a cut in the basic rate of tax to 20p, extending the personal allowance to where it is after today and abolished the 10p rate. Effective, April 2008.
Darling gives the 2008 Budget and confirms the earlier change with the lowering of the rate at which 40p rate applies.
Gordon calls an October election.
Where would he have been now?
67 - “Remember Tony and Gordon in 2001 sayng tax rates would not rise, but avoiding answering the question re NI?”
It’s an old trick that Gordon learnt from Ken Clarke. (Remember 1992 election campaign - Labour’s double whammy “More Taxes, Higher Prices.” )
Jon Snow just putting to Alistair Darling that the increase in tax allowances is no more than a bribe because they are going to lose C and N and that he faced losing the entire Finance Bill. He asked Darling to make an apology and Darling has used the “s” word once and that a mistake was made. Probably biggest mistake was him trusting his great mate Gord. I told you all the other night Gordon Brown is ruthless. He would sacrifice his closest allies and Darling has just compared this tax measure to his measure of nationalising Northern Rock claiming both were good and necessary!!
67. It would not surprise me if Cameron went for that question tommorow on whether the next budget will see the tax threshold change anounced today kept in place and raised by inflation next year.
Why?
Because Brown cannot anwser and more importantly if he does - Cameron goes back and asks whether the fuel duty will be implemented this autumn.
If Brown awnsers positive on those, then you could just go down the shopping list:
Otherwise he would be conning people. You get my point anyway - Brown has boxed himself in worse than before - Laugh i nearly cried! 
Army, Police, Corporation tax etc etc. If Brown can awnser questions on the first two he would have to awnser them on the others!
54. marcia: “If you earn just £8,000 you are still £60 worse off but if you earn £30000 you are £379 better off.”
I think it’s £50 worse off.
However, if you’re earning £8000 pa you are probably on minimum wage. This has increased this year by 21p per hour. On a 37 hour week, 48 week year that amounts to about an extra £370.
Ed, from the last thread - apologies for not getting back to you, you drooling moron - but I’ve been wandering around the Blue Mosque. I’m in Istanbul.
But getting back to the point, you still haven’t answered my question. You think the Guardian was right to censor the word “black” from the eyewitness statement to the murder - i.e. “I saw two black guys running from the murder scene”. Presumably you think the Guardian was right to do this, because to include the word “black” might prejudice the world against reggae, or whatever it is twits like you think.
But why, then, include the word “guys”? Doesn’t this prejudice the world against men? What if that eyewitness statement was actually made by a hideously fanatical anti-male feminist, like, say, Julie Bindel of the Guardian? Surely the ever-sensitive Guardian should censor all possibly prejudicial remarks by unreliable eye-witnesses? Why are only black people protected from the absurd idea that certain kinds of people are preponderantly involved in streetcrime and violent assault?
Just wondering.
Incidentally, I’d just like to NOT recommend the fish sandwiches by the Galata bridge on the Golden Horn. Too many bones.
75 - 21p per hour. Is that more or less than 3% increase?
75 - after I sent it I should realised I should have used income - a lot of pensioner have very low incomes. You may be part-time also.
37. Ladbrokes - the ‘magic sign’ - haven’t moved from 1/7 all day. Small money moved Betfair prices. No chance of seeing anything like 4/5 again. The Cons might move out a little, perhaps to something like 1/4 - which is something like value according to Mike’s implied probability chart. The Cons seat market still looks short compared to all the polls and available data - expect it to move up further when the Cons win C&N, so there’s the value?
78 _ I must be tired - ignore the f1rst should if you could.
76. “Too many bones” - still talking about Nick Clegg?
these unfunded Labour tax cuts will do nothing to promote economic growth; by cutting back on spending in vital public services such as schools and hospitals to reward their rich friends they reveal themselves for the selfish purveyors of inequality sensible people have always known them to be.
the billionaire-loving toffs who make up the current crop of reactionary nutjobs posing as a government can’t even do naked politicking very well, and on a day when even the CPI numbers are starting to come into line with the real world telling people that in real terms they’ll only be a little poorer this year is not going to get the voters flooding back.
71 - Labour win.
77. 3.8%
28. Jack W, good post. I believe there is a shrewd UK analyst somewhere beneath the Obamacon
If you earn £8,000 a year you might well be part time or a pensioner!!!!
It may take a few days for this to sink in, but this half baked tacky scheme is a disaster for the Government. The voters of Crewe and Nantwich will see right through it (good) and probably vote for a pathetic Tory (bad).
For what it’s worth, I think the results of an election last October would have been a hung parliament, with Labour as the largest single party = Brown as PM with Lib Dem support, which could have evaporated by now = general election now = Con win = Cameron as PM…
78. marcia: “after I sent it I should realised I should have used income - a lot of pensioner have very low incomes. You may be part-time also.”
If you are a pensioner you will benefit from the rise in the fuel allowance and state pension.
88 - your use of “benefit” is estate agent speak, as in “the property, which is in need of some updating, benefits from an indoor toilet and storage heating.”
85. Thanks Test …. you didn’t take puppy Harry out for walkies did you ??? …. he’s gone missing !!
88. Only problem with the “fuel allownce rise line” is fuel is going up as well!!!
Think about it the fuel allowance rise is supposed to offset the relevant group for paying more tax. But the affect will be swallowed up by rising fuel prices! Affectively a double whammy for the government as people will see they have less incom after tax and then they pay more for gas/ electricity/ Petrol.
No doubt about it Labour are in a mess over public spending!
Ed, coo-ee, you piffling muppet, where are you???
Here’s the latest account of the murder, from the Daily Mail:
“Shoppers fled in the crowded street near Oxford Circus as the rival groups hurled drinks and fought on the pavement at 4.45pm yesterday. One witness said Mr Bigby was first stabbed and then had his throat slit.
The four men were seen running towards Oxford Circus Tube station. They are described as black and aged 20 to 30. One was wearing a red T-shirt, another a white T-shirt, a third was described as being of muscular build and wearing a vest top and the fourth was wearing dark clothing.”
I’m keen to see the version of this which will meet with your approval, and that of the Guardian. May I humbly suggest this possible rewrite of the second paragraph:
“the four MEMBERS OF THE CLASS MAMMALIA were seen running towards Oxford Circus. They are described as HAVING SOME SORT OF IDENTITY WHICH IS ENTIRELY SOCIALLY CONDITIONED and aged 20 to 30 THOUGH THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THEM BEING OLD EITHER BECAUSE YOUNG PEOPLE ARE NOT ALL BAD. One was wearing a red tee shirt BUT THE WITNESS MIGHT HAVE BEEN COLOUR BLIND”.
Does that work for you? lol.
86. Icarus: “If you earn £8,000 a year you might well be part time or a pensioner!!!!”
If you have children you will benefit from the increase in child tax credits and child benefit.
If you work part-time you may still qualify for working tax credit, which has also increased.
If you don’t have children and you don’t work enough hours to qualify for tax credits and you’re not a pensioner, I find it hard to have a lot of sympathy because you’re £1 per week worse off.
78 - quite a lot of married women do not get much of a state pension some as low as £1 per annum due to the contributions or lack of them paid but that is another issue. My grandson was moaning tonight that he is still worse off. He is student in London doing a part-time job and earns just under £8000 and cannot see why the rather well off are still getting more than the lower paid. There are quite a lot of these in the country who are still worse off.
84 as the reference point for pay and pensions, student loans and many other things is RPI your heralded and boasted about increases are real terms cuts.
I admire you attempting to stick up for your team but this shower of shyte really don’t deserve your loyalty just as Major’s lot didn’t deserve mine. Go away and help build a proper Labour party with some real idea about what the Labour movement want to see happening and then come back and sell it to us.
92 - I don’t think “colour blind” is very PC, Sean.
Has the phrase “morally challenged” replaced “criminal” yet?
95 - bah! Student loan. Makes me feel bitter. Interest rate 4.8% now. “Inflation busting” you could say. I will soon be a teacher, and did they get a 4.8% pay rise? Did they heck!
96 - ‘differently moralled’, surely?
76 I laughed so much it hurt reading the opening paragraph.
97 it could be worse you could be in FE and get a 0% pay rise because the LSC blew all the money on some conferences about diversity and champagne lunch for the departing chairman
only a few more weeks and we can welcome you to the profession - well done for surviving the PGCE!
97. The governments Inflation policy is barking mad as is their taxation, spending, immigration, defence etc …etc.
OT - WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY
WVA TOP 20 of 54 counties, accounting for 69% of statewide Democratic registration:
KANAWHA (Charleston, state capital, southcentral WV) 11%
CABELL (Huntington, far southwest WV) 5%
RALEIGH (Beckley, southcentral WV) 4.5%
MARION (Fairmont, Fairmont State U,northcentral WV) 4%
MONONGALIA (Morgantown, WVU, far northern WV on PA border) 4%
HARRISON (Clarksburg, northcentral WV) 4%
BERKELEY (Martinsburg, far eastern panhandle near DC) 3.5%
LOGAN (Logan, far southwest WV) 3.5%
WOOD (Parkersburg, westcentral WV on Ohio R.) 3%
MERCER (Bluefield, far southeast WV on VA border) 3%
WAYNE (Kenova, far southwest WV) 3%
FAYETTE (Oak Hill, southcentral WV) 3%
MINGO (Williamson, far southwest WV on KY border) 2.5%
OHIO (Wheeling, northern panhandle between PA, OH) 2.5%
PUTNAM (Winfield, suburbs between Charleston & Huntingdon) 2.5%
BOONE (Madison, southwest WV) 2%
LINCOLN (Hamlin, southernwest WV 2%
HANCOCK (Weirton, far northern panhandle between PA, OH) 2%
GREENBRIER (White Sulphur Springs, southeast WV 2%
JEFFERSON (Charles Town, Harpers Ferry, far eastern panhandle near DC) 2%
Frank Field on C4 News ordering Gordon and Alistair to abandon their anti-inflationary economic strategy. This man is dangerous! He’s already forced the Government into an ignominious retreat over their excellent 10p policy. Who governs Britain? Field is a megalomaniac and must be stopped!
100 - thanks kingbongo! I have a job starting in seven weeks.
102 - do the Tories really want him? Would they take him? It would be very unwise, I think!
Not complaining, but just curious why my last comment (#102) is labeled: “Your comment is awaiting moderation?”
101 The Government’s inflation policy (which is to let Eddie G/ Merv sort it out) is actually a bloody good one and the single best thing they have ever done.
Put it this way if anyone were ever to try and reverse it (and they never will not even the Tories) you would see the most spectacular run on GBP/gilts/LSE that has been witnessed in our lifetimes.
Fuel allowance = Higher Income Taxes + rocketing energy prices
All outcomes mean Labour defeat!
People say my spelling and punctuation is crap but the above equation does noty work!
Any PHD mathematicians around to confirm deny the equation?
92
– MAMMALIA VS MACHINES
And mammalia is not acceptable — for it reflects a prejudice toward those who are born.
92
– MAMMALIA VS MACHINES
And mammalia is not acceptable — for it reflects a prejudice toward those who are born.
105 - SSI, we can’t see it at all.
but did you include something from this…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-banned-list/
104 was just about to say that… rather blown his cred with the right now.
Does the demand that “those who think taxes are too low should just pay more themselves” extend across the board?
“Think the prison population’s too low? Check in!”
“Think Britain’s overcrowded? Emigrate!”
“Think inflation’s too high? Open a shop and sell stuff at a loss!”
Or is there some basic understanding of prisoner’s dilemma style concepts around here?
Jack, you know you love the attention, you frisky old centenarian you
92-Actually the BBC omitted to mention some facts which may have helped to identify the attackers. But I guess we expect it from them.
At least the Grauniad is not (directly) funded by the tax payer.
The security guard was black, as I said in the previous post, had the attackers been white hate crime, race crime, crime against humanity, Stephen Lawrence, etc woud have been bandied about. We’ve seen it before. Compare the treatment of the lad murdered in Liverpool by white youths, and the lad murdered in Glasgow by Paksitani youths. Only one was classed as racist and got the media attention. Guess which one. Why? Not conducive to race relations? I posit that not highlighting these crimes leads to worse, not better, race relations.
Still, at least the BNP will be cheering.
96. Good point. The eye-witness might have been DIFFERENTLY-VISIONED.
Indeed the murderers might just have been EXPRESSING VARIANT CULTURAL NORMS IN RELATION TO JUVENILE MASCULINE PEER GROUP HIERARCHIES, and any attempt to say they were actually “slashing a guy’s neck with a knife” is therefore racist.
112-Leave it out!!
For what it’s worth I don;t believe in prison reform!!
115. Maybe some of the witnesses had optimum level light filters on them and some did not. It may have made the people look darker than they were?
104: ‘It would be very unwise, I think!’
Agreed. Field fightens me - a devious, ruthless man! I believe he is positioning himself to be next Labour leader once Brown is booted out.
118 - yes, but many Tories, even sensible ones like Benedict White, dream of his defection.
118. I doubt it!
Maybe Field just feels that Labour should do something whilst it has the power for the poor instead of punishing the poor like Brown has been intent on doing since entering downing street.
112-
“Think the prison population’s too low? Make sure more criminals are jailed. And as a bonus save on their upkeep by supplying a free razor and easily malleable rope”
“Think Britain’s overcrowded? Kick out illegals!”
“Think inflation’s too high? Lower tax on booze, petrol and council tax, etc!”
Far more sensible
119. Field is not going to defect to the tories - people mistake his critism on Europe, welfare reform etc for Tory tendencies but Filed has nothing to gain by leaping ship to the tories. Birkenhead is in the top 50 safest Labour seats - better to be a maverick than a one time marter!
111 Don’t think my humble post #102 contains any discouraging words - it lists 20 West Virginia counties with the highest share of statewide Democratic registration for today’s primary.
Speaking of that, here is a report from the field, via Charleston Daily Mail:
ELECTION RUNNING SMOOTHLY IN KANAWHA, PUTNAM
With the exception of one location, polling places in Kanawha and Putnam counties opened without delays this morning and ran smoothly in the early hours.
Because of a supply worker arriving late, one Sissonville location opened behind schedule, said Vera McCormick, Kanawha County Clerk.
“Some of the machines in other locations didn’t start up right away, but that didn’t stop us from voting,” McCormick said.
Kanawha County has already tallied 7,000 votes cast in early ballots, McCormick said. Details on the size of the turnout for today’s primary election were not yet available, but McCormick said she expects one for the history books.
“We expect to have people waiting in line,” she said. “We’re a swing state and important when it comes to this election. We’re all ready to go.”
No delays were reported for Putnam County polling locations, said Brian Wood, Putnam County clerk.
Putnam County has counted about 2,200 votes cast during the early period, Wood said. In the still contested primary, there has been light to average turnout reported this morning with things seeming to run smoothly.
“Obviously, we’re going to have hurdles and little questions from poll workers, but we haven’t had any major problems,” Wood said.
A record 76,519 West Virginians cast early ballots in the primary during the early voting period that ran from April 23 to May 10, according Secretary of State Betty Ireland’s office. The previous record, set in 2004, was 27,226.
More than 70 percent of those early ballots were cast by Democrats in the highly contested Democratic primary between senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
121. The thing that most revials people about prison is usually the buggery. It would be interesting to see figures on the numbers of people buggered in jail and the re-offender rate!
Iain Dale http://iaindale.blogspot.com/ has an article from Grant Thornton showing many low paid will still be worse off after today’s attempted bribe. No doubt by tomorrow Frank Field will be withdrawing his apology. Gary Gibbon on Channel 4 news has just revealed he was speaking to a Labour MP who can count on 100 Labour MPs to sign a motion calling for Brown to go. It has only just begun. 1978 and 1995 all over again.
34. That is a shameless headline that would be in place on a Labour party leaflet. Not a mention of a u-turn or facing off a rebellion until deep into the article.
123. Highly contested? Clinton will win a landslide and Obama only showed up about twice!
Labour Home assert that the 10p tax issue is ’sorted’:
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/5/13/104229/471
Labour are doomed!
This lurch to the left or fiscal incontence has left Labour unelectable 
To think a government with a majority in the 60’s having to do this sort of thing - pathetic! The sooner the buggers are slung out the better.
112. Britain too overcrowded then emigrate? Yes, if you prefer somewhere else - it’s called choice!
121 Yes indeed - but those all require government action!
The original proposal was that people should just do whatever they want the Government to enact, rather than campaign for it against people who think otherwise. eg “Against drinking and driving? Don’t do it then!”
I assure you if you went around kidnapping and deporting people, or hanging criminals in your garden, the authorities would not be terribly amenable to that, any more than if the staff of the Howard League went around organising jailbreaks.
FIeld probably realised that he went too far with his interview at the weekend and had lost support. Better to make a dignified retreat now and wait for the next time. As was said above, he’s in a super safe Labour seat which will be impervious to any Tory surge. Darling on the other hand is in Edinburgh SW, which thanks to boundary changes is basically Malcolm Rifkind’s old Pentlands seat. It’s a natural Tory area, it’s MSP is Tory and it may be about to turn into a tight 4 way marginal at the next GE. How Field would enjoy seeing the sockpuppet booted out!
OK, I’m done with filleting the ridiculous “Ed” now. These people are not worthy.
On a lighter note, before I watch my iPlayer, here’s a useful travel tip from Istanbul. Watch for the scams.
Yesterday I was walking along a road, near the Topkapi Palace, minding my own business. I was strolling behind a shoe-shine guy. As he walked ahead of me, he dropped the end of his shoe-shine brush, without noticing.
Being a nice kind of guy, especially to foreigners, I tapped him on the shoulder and told him. He turned, beamed and thanked me profusely - and then he offered me a shoeshine. It seemed to be a freebie - in return for my niceness in saving his brush.
I didn’t actually want a shine, but out of politeness I said yes. So he gave me a shine and - of course - at the end I felt obliged to offer him some cash. Then he got actually shirty at the amount I offered him, and I ended up giving him 2 Turkish lire - which is quite a lot (the lira has been revalued).
So I ended up paying a bunch of cash for a shoeshine I didn’t want after merely doing something nice.
Anyway, today I was walking along behind a shoe-shine guy, and, guess what, he dropped his brush. Alerted to the coincidence, I tapped him on the shoulder and he started thanking me profusely - and then he demanded I accept a free shine in return for my niceness.. etc etc etc..
A very clever scam. I almost felt like giving him some money just for the deftness of the grifting. But I didn’t.
And on that Eurasian irrelavance, Tessakur from Byzantion!
What price can I get on Frank Field being the next Labour leader? Could prove a good bet: he’d go down well with the Blairites (he was, of course, one of Tony’s first and most radical appointments); he’s now a hero of the Labour left; his Euro-scepticism would endear him to Murdoch; even the Tories have a soft spot for him and keep wanting him to defect. Watch this space!
131-Tell us, do you think tax is too low? Would you feel happy payng more tax voluntarily?
133-A friend had a different scam. Ended up him being tricked into going to a bar, then given a ginormous drinks bill. Apparently not uncommon.
Isn’t it tessekuriye or something? with a few umlauts thrown in?
121. I think you somewhat missed the guy’s point.
134 - no chance. Too religious. Reminds one of Blair.
did anybody notice David Cameron gage an interview to crewe blog? Http://www.crewe.tv
134
I understand F Field has no - zero - sense of humour.
So no chance of becoming Leader… he has zero personal following and after this has even less I would guess.
111 - when do the polls close in WV?
134. 100/1 with Ladbrokes!!
Post 27 - “Never underestimate the stupidity of the Conservative party! Or the Labour Party, or even at times the Liberal Democrats.”
But none of them would be stupid enough to have Field as leader
142 - I dunno. The Tories chose IDS and Labour Brown. And the LDs… well Clem Davies was bloody useless.
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY
Polls close at 7:30 pm EDT which is (I think) 12:30 am BST.
Not that I anticipate huge volume of traffic on PB tonight! Unless of course the Tory in the C&N by-election is unmasked as a secret member of Mebyon Kernow . . .
114. Actually, whether a crime is deemed “racially motivated” isn’t based on just the skin colour of those involved. A good friend of mine knew this black guy who was stabbed by a gang of white chavs and nobody’s race was ever mentioned in the paper, nor did the police class it as a racist attack.
You can believe in your conspiracy theories if you like though.
141 - Maria, we must be mutually telephathic or something, as I posted my #145 before I saw your #141
WV could be Hilary’s swansong? Concession on a high tomorrow?
145-I’m happy to accept your word on it!
139 No chance of becoming Leader I agree but he has brow-beaten Brown and Darling into changing the Government’s fiscal policy less than two months after the budget which isn’t bad for a backbencher.
Lib Dems and Tories neck and neck in C & N ( well http://ww.crewe.tv poll says so anyway!
Brick (Monster) 9 (1%)
Dunwoody (Lab) 98 (19%)
Garret (Beauty) 19 (3%)
Nattrass (UKIP) 27 (5%)
Roberts (Eng Dem) 4 (0%)
Shenton (Lib Dem) 166 (32%)
Smith (Green) 3 (0%)
Thorogood (Petrol) 1 (0%)
Timpson (Cons) 166 (32%)
Walklate (Ind) 13 (2%)
147-Why spend the money on WV and then not follow through to Kentucky and PR where she feels she’ll win?
I think she’ll stay in. Claim she can win the marginal states (WV) that Obama can’t. From quick memory Obama has won only two of the swing states, Iowa and Wisconsin. Any more?
133. A Turkish lire is worth slightly less than a US dollar - your shoeshine cost you about 90p. You could probably spin out the story as a chapter of your next book - worth how much?
It seems to me that this panic tax cut is like most of new Labour’s plans not particularly thought out. The personal allowance goes up each year by the RPI - say 5% to be generous. This means that next year the personal allowance will go up by £275, but the £600 bribe will be removed. So in total next April the personal allowance will be cut by £325 which means a £65 tax increase for every tax payer in the country, including those who still lose out from this year. Additionally the poorest will be proportionally worst hit and bizarrely those who escape tax this year will be drawn back into the tax net.
When was the last time anyone can remember a government decreasing the personal allowance.? So is Darling going to borrow more at a time when the borrowing figures are going to be looking hellish to keep it unchanged next year?
All this will come to fruition (like this year) at the end of April. Darling has just taken the axe to hundreds more of Labour’s county councillors.
150-And the yellow bar chart obscenely out of proportion?
146 - I don’t know if I will stay up as still recovering from watching the Indiana result to 4 am last week - I remember watching by-election results in the 60/70/80’s to the early hours with no side effects - but now - I feel as old as Jack W.
Glad to see the Frank Field lovefest coming to an end. Quite the rudest man I’ve ever met.
As for his political allegiance, I was told by another MP that Frank Field belonged to the Frank Field party. Nothing I have seen in the last few days has caused me to question that assertion.
151. You may be right, but her body language is resigned - a bit like Ken’s in the last mayoral debate!
134. He has no chance…nor I suspect, interest.
Does anyone know how to make this page refresh automatically so I don’t have to keep pressing F5 to see the latest posts?
Coming late to this, but let me see if I have got this right:
Some of the poorest & hardest hit by the 10p tax rate abolition will gain nothing from this.
The next hardest hit 20% will see their loss halved (for this year)
The remaining 80% will £120 better off (for this year)
And 17 million middle income earners not hit by the 10p tax rate abolition will be £120 better off this year - and he has borrowed £2bn to pay for this middle-earners’ one-year tax cut.
You really couldn’t make this up. It’s priceless. How long did it take them to dream this up?
We really are in the end-game and the death throes will entertain us for upto 2 years.
Can’t see this middle-earners’ tax cut as doing much to motivate the core vote in C&N…
150 - your link is missing a W
http://www.crewe.tv/
They also put a smear of polish on your shoe, then you have to have it polished off. Pre the new lira I am sure I gave one guy £10 instead of £1 as intended.
Back in Turkey on 24th - Great place, are you in the Queen’s party Sean?
From my personal perspective..
Good points - The change in allowances is a relatively simple way of correcting the mistake. Frankly I am surprised that they’ve done this in such a direct way. At my most optimistic I could almost believe that it was a sign that they were able to learn from experience. We will see.
Bad points - Funding the change from borrowing, at a time when we’ve been borrowing for a fair few years already, is a bit dicey. It ruins the New Labour playbook as woody at [6] points out, but then [positively] that wasn’t working anyway, so it would be good if they have to come up with something else.
This should never have happened. People will remember that it has happened, and some of the damage will never go away.
thanks marcia - are you Harold’s Marcia?
164
certainly not!
159 - no. nor do we know any way of trawling through past posts to find gems (probably written by the searcher)
161 useless poll. I can vote in it and I’m 300 miles from Crewe and not on the eletoral roll!
151. Missouri and Colorado both went for Obama, and Virgina will be a swing state this year.
re 150 I fear that this is the work of one enthusiastic Lib Dem who has worked out how to disable cookies.
Still it’s not as fanatastic as some of Sky’s voodoo polls.
Tories will just win in Crewe. But it’ll be only by 2-3%.
If Caroline Flint’s briefing notes are correct it’ll be near impossible for Labour to recover in National polls whilst house prices are dropping like a stone.
Patriots are taking over middle England.
http://www.independent.co.uk/extras/features/pride–prejudice-how-the-far-right-muscled-in-on-middle-england-826898.html
Are the Patriots the only Political Party who care about knife crime?
http://www.bnp.org.uk/2008/05/bnptv-and-richard-barnbrook-report-from-oxford-street/
I don’t think I missed the point at all.
“131-Tell us, do you think tax is too low?”
Yes I do - I think government borrowing is far too high but I don’t think there’s as much to be saved from lower spending as advocates of low-tax would like to think.
“Would you feel happy payng more tax voluntarily?”"
No, of course not, because that wouldn’t be tax, it would be charity.
I would feel happy paying 10% more tax if 5% more than now overall went on cutting borrowing, and 5% more went on improving public services.
I wouldn’t feel happy paying 10% more tax if nobody else did, so the benefit to the country was only my fifteen hundred quid.
That’s surely the fundamental basis of politics in a liberal democracy - that what is decided is decided for one is decided for all, in like cases, within the deciding jurisdiction.
141: ‘100/1 with Ladbrokes!!’
Thanks for that! I’m rubbing my hands already.
172. How much have you put on, then?? :)-
MTF - a useless poll is one whose findings you dont like!
Checking to see if Marcia Falkender was still alive found this (June 2007) re Mary Wison:
“Her background also goes some way to explaining why she has never complained about the Cabinet Office’s decision, regarded by some as a disgrace, to halve her pension - to £15,000 - when her husband died in 1995. All she will say is: “I have a small annuity.” ”
Disgraceful!
From the Grant Thornton press release:
“The Chancellor has delivered an essentially unfunded early Christmas present to a large number of UK workers, but failed to undo its mistake for around 1.1 million low income households.” Lagerberg says many UK workers will be up-beat about the announcement expecting an additional and unplanned boost to their income, but those earning £7,455 will still be £32.40 in arrears come the end of the 2008/09 tax year.”
171. How do you account for places like Switzerland and Ireland which have lower tax rates but government services at least as good as ours?
These are the latest odds via Mikes link
Bookmaker Betting Exchange
Conservatives 1/7
0.21/1
Labour 5
4.2/1
Liberal Democrats 25
31
How does this go with the graph???, hasnt the graph line turned down a fair bit?
177. Quite. I refer you to my post 79.
174 How can a poll that isn’t restricted to residents of Crewe and Nantwich be any indication of the likely outcome. Its fatuous IMHO
For Rod Crosby - a report on the significance of special elections in the US (with reference to the one being held today)
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/americandebate/
169 How do I disable cookies?
Mike if you e mail me, I have got the London Elect spreadhseets, I am told they are on their website, but I cant find them
176
Amongst other answers: small military, low unemployment, low incapacity benefits, restricted immigration, business friendly.. and in Ireland’s case.. EC grants.
Socrates I think if you’re a reasonably small country, you can ‘compete’ on tax by having low rates and attracting companies and rich individuals to settle there and pay you, while not really requiring much government spending. You can do the same thing if you’re a fast-growing country coming from a position of lower wealth than your neighbours.
You can’t do it if you are a very large country which would have to give out more to those already here than you would get from those coming here, and if everyone does it the magic trick stops working anyway. Ireland have done well over recent years, it might not last - and they’ve only recently stopped being net recepients of EU aid despite their newfound wealth. They do I believe have stamp duty of about seven per cent on properties above £100k though, see how that would go down here…
You can also make taxes look lower than they really are by doing things like introducing compulsory health insurance rather than a directly taxpayer-funded service. I would argue that to all intents and purposes the cost of the insurance should be included when calculating a country’s tax level, since it’s compulsory.
182 - what is health provision for the poor in Ireland like?
Doesn’t Switzerland have more immigrants than anywhere? Didn’t Ireland open up immigration to new entrant states like the UK did?
Confirmation from Inland Revenue:
Personal allowance up £600 (from £5,435 to £6,035)
Higher rate threshold - DOWN £1,200 (from £36,000 to £34,800)
ie you will now start paying higher rate tax at £40,835 (previously £41,435).
So more people pay higher rate tax (as posted earlier on previous thread!)
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/news/may13.htm
150
And a few idiots like you actually believe it.
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY - Voting Systems
WVa has 55 counties (have a friend who memorized them all in alphabetically order in school half-century ago, and can still rattle them out upon request).
The following voting systems are being used on a county-by-county basis for the 2008 WV primary:
Old Fashioned Paper Ballots = 2 counties
BRAXTON (Sutton) in the exact center of the state
WYOMING (Welch deep in the far southern WV coalfield
Counting of these ballots similar to UK general election EXCEPT that there are more races that just president; also congress, governor & other state offices, legislature, etc. So they take a while to count.
Optical Scan (machine tallied paper ballots) = 19 counties
large OpScan counties: KANAWHA (Charleston), HARRISON (Clarksburg), PUTNAM (suburbs between Charleston & Huntington), BERKELEY (Martinsburg), JEFFERSON (Harpers Ferry)
Type of voting used in recent London elections. Ballots marked by voter are either tabulated at the pollsite, or via central count. Either way, generally takes some time to complete & colate the results.
Direct Recording Electronic = 36 counties
includes RALEIGH (Beckley)
MONONGALIA (Morgantown, West Virginia U)
MERCER (Bluefield, significant Black vote)
WOOD (Parkersburg)
OHIO (Wheeling)
also LOGAN & MINGO in southern coalfield
Bulk of the state is voting via electronic ballot. Note that WV requires a paper trail, for what its worth; critics of electronic voting say not much. But the counts tend to be pretty quick.
FURTHER note that federal Help America Vote Act (HAVA) requires that there be at least one voting device in every polling place, to allow blind & other disabled voters to vote independently.
For the primary 52 counties are using DRE machines to comply with this provision of HAVA. But 3 counties (Kanawha, Jefferson, Lewis) are using the Automark system, which allows the voter to mark an opscan ballot using an ATM/cashpoint electronic interface: the best of both worlds. Putnam also used Automark for early voting.
173: ‘How much have you put on, then?? :)-’
I’ll let you know when I win!
184 - it is not the level of incapacity benefit; it is the fact that there are 10000000000 buggers on it.
182 It’s basically because they are tax havens, Ireland for corporation tax and Switzerland for all sorts of wheezes. It wouldn’t really work for the large country like the UK, though we could perhaps try to be a bit more sensible with our tax code.
Did anyone see Tamsin Dunwoody on More4 news flat refusing to answer the question “is Gordon Brown an asset or liability”? John Denham had to step in to save her because she was making such a poor effort.
147 - I doubt it. Hillary will, in my view, do one of the following:
1. Suspend her campaign on May 31st after a decision by DNC to seat (in some form) the Florida and Michigan delegations (Michigan would need to be modified form to reflect Obama not even being on the ballot - it wouldn’t alter the underlying maths). She would call it a victory for democracy that she successfully argued for their inclusion and remain on the ballot for the final three primaries but stop wasting her money. Makes Ladbrokes 3-1 (is that still available) fairly tempting as it includes suspension I believe, and this one looks a real runner.
2. Stop when the results of June 3rd primaries are announced and it is confirmed she has lost the popular vote and delegates. She will say it was important everyone had their say and she allowed them to have it.
3. Stop when superdelegates give Obama a clear absolute majority - there comes a tipping point when a lot of Clinton delegates as well as undeclared will go. This would be somewhat humiliating but she may be sufficiently in denial.
182. If we halved our defence budget we would only shave 1% off our government spending as a proportion of GDP. Ireland is now a net contributor to the EU - a similar amount per capita to us.
Your other points merely reinforce my view that we don’t need to raise taxes!
192. Interesting. I can’t believe they’ll go for option 1. Your option 2 is the most likely, I suspect, if she doesn’t call it a day before then. (Ladbrokes have suspended everything Democratic during WV!)
151, 168 Obama was quite close in New Hampshire, Nevada and New Mexico, so in no way obvious that Clinton would do better against McCain here (polls clearly shows Obama doing better in the latter two). He won Washington and will win Oregon, both would be swing state with Clinton, but quite safe with Obama.
WV is no swing state, Clinton cannot win it.
I think 4/1 on here going before the end of May is value, and am buying some on Intrade. To go on a high note tonight must be tempting. Debts are increasing, superdelegates abondoing her - and only stubbornness remains for her. Her win in Kentucky will be cancelled out by Oregon the same night, so tonight makes better timing, and saves her some money.
The other two political/economic stories today were the larger-than-expected rise in inflation and Flint’s briefing paper on forthcoming falls in house prices. The 10% tax-band fiasco brings with it higher borrowing (at a time when the Government desperately needs to realise some rather optimistic projections of tax take this FY) and a decrease in the point at which 40% tax starts.
So the voters in C&N may well take a dim view of the Government’s economic record.
196 - Not sure about that. Just looks very odd to say, “I have scored a massive electoral triumph so I am calling it a day and endorsing the man I have just soundly beaten”. WV seems to me to be a real side show - Obama has hardly bothered setting foot there.
195 - I think (1) is a real possibility having been over there recently. A lot of the language of Hillary supporters points towards it, “it is important everyone is heard - including Michigan and Florida” - that sort of thing. It is the magnanimous exit strategy - the Puerto Rico primary is overshadowed by the news, it is a non-electoral victory for Hillary on what she can call a point of principle, Obama romps to victory in South Dakota and Montana (which he will anyway) giving him a boost, everyone gets a say, Hillary’s credentials for a majority leader role in Senate is enhanced (may even get assurances). Everyone’s a winner.
186 What does this mean for NI thresholds? Are they out of sync again?
197. I agree the news that Government thinks house prices will fall between 5-10% in the next year ‘at best’ is truly awful news for many home owners, particularly those recently onto the housing ladder. The axiety will be palpable, but the real charge against Government is that they are not sharing this with the public. It took a photographer and a careless minister to get this out. The 10p tax is literally small change in comparison to losing 20k off house values.
190.Try attending a tribunal to contest a decision against awarding said benefit which is the a mind blowing £84 a week before opening your mouth in the future. Keep taking the tabloids……….
190.Try attending a tribunal to contest a decision against awarding said benefit which is a mind blowing £84 a week before opening your mouth in the future. Keep taking the tabloids……….
199 - lol good thought! Wasn’t equalising them the whole advertised point of all the changes?
I think this is the clear answer to the suggestion that Brown would fall on his sword ‘for the sake of the party’. The fact is Brown is perfectly willing to raid the public purse purely in the interests of keeping himself in power. No matter what it costs. Literally. Desperate measures from a desperate and immoral man. And it won’t work.
The numbers on comments on this post have got out of whack.
138 & some ff reply to 134 but their topics are not related at all. Likewise 150 replying to 139, etc.
Trying to follow posts on this thread has given me a headache. Urgh.
“Forced to rewrite the budget to save their skin” is the Newsnight headline for those who think the BBC is pro-government.
204 The Tories should borrow Yokel’s question for their next leaflet “If this is just for one year, what happens next year?”
Darling has given away any wriggle room he had irrespective of loss of tax revenues from business slowdown and very probable increases in welfare costs as slowdown hits employment. Can he afford to delay the 2p on petrol now? What about the car tax rises - can’t really cut those now and those will hit home in build up to election. Means another year of incomes control on public employees at a time the Labour Party needs Union funds for the European Elections and in build up to 2010.
A tax giveaway today means a harsher than planned budget in 2009 unless the Treasury decides to let borrowing rip
207, i think borrowing has already ripped at about £43 billion….
I think the BBC is now building up David Miliband. They just devoted the whole of R4s World Tonight slot to a leadership style interview with him - ending with a question about Labour’s current problems which allowed Miliband to sound statesmanlike as he pronouncd on Labour’s woes. A gift. The BBC is just as pro Labour as ever. Having presided over ditching Blair to annoint Brown, they are now ditching Brown to annoint Miliband.