The by election betting - the morning after
May 14th, 2008
C&N punters mount their own U-turn
Yesterday evening, less than two hours after Darling’s commons statement on the tax U-turn I published a chart here under the headline “Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting“.
This has been picked up in the media and on a number of other sites and presented as an instant verdict on what Brown and Darling did yesterday.
Well after consideration the markets have returned to almost exactly where they were 24 hours ago.
This is probably as a result of the way the media has dealt with Darling’s commons statement. For ministers have had to cope with their own words of only a few weeks ago being played back to them repeatedly. U-turns never look good because it raises question marks about your judgement in the first place.
And this has been picked up by the markets as can be seen above. The chart, itself, shows the changes in the betting odds reflected as an implied probability.
Mike Smithson
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It was interesting how the TV news coverage changed over the hours. The BBC were initially sympathetic, which was quite worrying, but they had changed tact by 10pm, headlining it as a ‘U-Turn’. ITV and Sky were pretty scathing.
ITV were very scathing, they slammed it from the get go. The BBC went with ‘wrong footing the tories’ intially but then swiftly changed tack, the papers are pretty much against the entire thing too. The Sun’s headline is ‘the bribe minister’, think that says it all.
Repeated from the early hours - The Gods have ways of taking down people who think they are invincible -I should know!
Is Cameron getting complacent? If someone had said this on PB, Mike might have had to ban them.
David Cameron told yesterday’s Press Gallery lunch. “All parties have their problems. We had the difficulty with [sex addict] Irvine Laidlaw. I thought I had done what was necessary. I took away the whip. But obviously I should have taken away the handcuffs, suspenders and the thong. In fact when I first saw the headline, ‘Top Tory, Coke and the Hooker’, I thought ‘Oh no, not George again’.”
The Independent: http://tinyurl.com/53p2y4
Yes it is interesting that the graph shows that effectively this change has been seen through. I wonder though whether Darling misled the House in his statement, he said that the 40% threshold was reduced by £600 pounds but the HMRC press release confirms that it is reduced by £1200 pounds. Isn’t misleading the house a resignation issue?
It may have brought a few Labour MPs back onside for now but it’s already clear that Brown’s desperate and reckless attempt to buy votes in Crewe and Nantwich has backfired badly. Apart from Nick Robinson’s initial attempt to spin it, the media have been almost universally negative and even Robinson has had to revise his earlier position.
So, another cackhanded and cynical attempt by Brown to court popularity has failed. Does everything this man touch turn gangrenous and for how much longer do we have to tolerate this grotesque creature as Prime Minister of our country?
Looks like the betting markets over-reacted on this one. Of course, the initial response was like Nick Palmers; Great, we’re out of the 10p hole. But of course, that was before the enormity of what Brown and Darling had done sunk in. To reopen a budget and kow-tow to your backbenchers like this is deeply humiliating. Moreover, most people are still deeply unimpressed that Brown actually did this in the first place and whilst this may take some of the sting out of Browns tax con, theres still a lot of anger out there. My suspicion is that the people of Crewe will still want to send Brown a message next week and it won’t be thanks from a gratful public.
2. Another interesting example of how the BBC’s default approach is to regurgitate any spin the government gives it…often then being forced to meekly trail along behind other news providers who have something resembling journalistic independence. The license fee might as well be paid directly to Labour HQ.
darling does no mislead. he simply does not understand.
3. I think Cameron’s funny. He’s having fun, whats wrong with that? Soon enough he’ll be in government and all the pressure’s that go with being in government, but for the moment, he’s on the crest of a wave and enjoying himself. I don’t begrudge him some fun.
3, he just made a few jokes, like when Hague mocks the Lib Dems, or Cable said Brown was Bean, or when Brown said he was prudent.
4, that’s an interesting point.
A £600 increase in personal allowance is, as said, an extra £120. A decrease of the 40% band threshold of £1200 (with a 20% difference between basic and higher rate) would amount to them paying £240 more, which becomes an extra £120 when the extra personal allowance is taken into account.
So, if you’re at the top end of the 20% band you’re sorted, a tax rise for the higher earners and a tax decrease (although the net effect could still be a loss) at the lower end of the 20%.
Missed the fun and arrived at the tail end to see 102% on the LAY side…which was nice !
First thing to be said is that the turnover on the C&N Heat has been minimal and still only amounts to 37k.
The other thing to be said is that the initial reaction was just silly unsophisticated people expressing their opinion and more sophisticated people having fun.
The re-reaction looks far more sensible.
8 should read not.
I still think there’s value in betting on Labour in Crewe… not to say i think Labour will win, but i think the contest is a good deal closer than the ‘chatter’ might suggest.
That said, I’m tempted to go with the chap from the fiscal studies institue (who was on most of the news programs) when he said those benifiting from a tax reform were usually ungrateful and those losing-out would normally be angry… if that’s the case i dont see it helping Labour get out its core vote in Crewe any more than the infantile ‘class warfare’ rehtoric they have been using.
Quentin Letts amusingly brings up the spectre of the old Stalinist show trials in his take on Frank Field’s about face:
“……Various Labour sycophants spoke up for our visionary Government. Then there was a gulpy mea culpa from Frank Field, the Labour MP who had been leading the 10p tax band revolt.
You may recall that over the weekend Mr Field pretty much said on BBC radio that Gordon Brown was barking mad and should resign before he had to be wheeled away by men with white coats and a horse syringe.
Yesterday it turned out he had in fact intended to say that Mr Brown was a giant among men who should be given the Nobel Prize. Something like that, anyway.
A teary-eyed Mr Field wobbled to his feet and said: “May I congratulate the Chancellor for putting an end to this issue?
“Pleasure will be widely expressed in the country. I allowed my campaign to become personal. I much regret that.”
It had been a recantation worthy of an old Iron Curtain country. We can probably conclude that Mr Field will not be needing to visit a manicurist for a few months…….”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=566282&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=228&in_check=N
Frank Field, man of principle? I really don’t think so. Not when there are still 1.1 million losers and they being the poorest of all.
3 It is good to see a politician being able to present outwardly as normal. How long he can keep it up for, we shall see.
SeanT - where are you?
Re: Istanbul Scams - yesterday - have you read this?
http://lastknownlocation.blogspot.com/2006/12/istanbul-scams.html
Third paragraph scam… SHOE SHINER DROPS BRUSH!!
Also, if you’re a single-male walking alone in the tourist areas, beware of the “let’s have a drink” scam.
I always politely refuse. I’ve been to Istanbul many times.
10 - Yes for 40% payers if the band had been left unchanged they would have gained £120 from the personal allowance increase effectively changing tax on an extra £600 pounds from 20% to 0%. They would then have gained another £120 from the extra £600 pounds being charged at 20% as opposed to 40%. So a reduction in the band by £600 as the chancellor announced in his statement would have removed the gain from the extra £600 then being in the lower rate but by reducing the band by £1200 pounds as in the press release reduces it by both gains. So 40% taxpayers gain nil. When one considers that as a result of the changes announced yesterday the new 40% threshold is 34,800, the threshold for tax year 2007/08 was 34,600 so effectively Darling has reversed the indexation of the 40% band.
17, not sure if I’m reading you correctly, I get the £600 increase to the allowance threshold.
But this:
“They would then have gained another £120 from the extra £600 pounds being charged at 20% as opposed to 40%”
I’m not sure of. Was the 40% threshold being raised by £600?
Well, of course it’s a U-turn, and the Tories have to stress this aspect: after all, Oppositions are supposed to oppose. Nonetheless, the line “I made a mistake, I owned up and I put it right” is not to be despised (though this Government doesn’t have the skill to spin it effectively), and contrasts with Thatcher’s attitude to the Poll Tax.
I think it will steady the Labour ship, though: what was originally proposed was a Tory tax reform (simplifying, regressive) - what is now being offered is the sort of tax change Labour governments are elected to make.
18 - No, but if it had been left where it is then £600 would have dropped into the 20% as it would have been in the first 36,000 of taxable income. As the tax free threshold had gone up £600 the finishing point of this first 36,000 would have moved up £600. So without changing the threshold 40% taxpayers would have gained twice. Dropping by £600 would have removed one gain, dropping by £1200 removes both.
19 - HUH??!? A middle class bribe that stings over a million of the poorest people in the country to con middle earners at a by-election … a LABOUR tax. Keir Hardie is spinning like a top as we speak.
IA @ 19-
One observable move, albeit on another pygmy market, was that Gordon Brown was backed to remain as PM.
Could have been the Frank Field effect.
“Mr Darling came to the Commons to announce an early tax cut, for everybody except the rich.” Not really true!
People over the age of 65 - already in receipt of the Age Allowance - will NOT receive a tax cut.
So please warn your elderly bloggers not to go out and splurge their £120 on champagne and caviar. They ain’t going to get it.
2. More disgraceful coverage from the Beeb.
20, ah, gotcha, didn’t realise the 20% band was X amount of taxable income rather than being defined as income earnt between X and Y.
19, a mess of a tax change funded by borrowing billions? Very Labour.
They’ve climbed down on IHT, CGT and now income tax. You would’ve thought they’d get one of them right, if only by chance.
Wonder if any mobile phones were smashed when the papers were shown to Mr Brown today.
I’m off to York for some racing anyway. Sorry for not being around to post Cameron brilliant Brwon rubbish for PMQ’s but here it is ahead of the event.
19 - Well, superficially it looks good; superficially it’s both a tax cut for the lowest earners AND a simplification - how could I object to that? But it’s not actually paid for by spending any less; it’s paid for by increasing borrowing. Is this how you run your own finances?
16 - The more I hear of places like that, the more I like Britain.
Anyone know what tax policy is going to be next week?
27 - Didn’t Gordon always say that they would only borrow to invest? What’s the return on this investment, it isn’t going to be votes?
Also having looked at the press release, we are all defined as customers of HMRC. Can we take our custom elsewhere, say to a tax body that is cheaper?
[27] No it isn’t. I am not a government (well, the last time I looked, anyaway).
Interesting perspective from Rob Peston on Darling’s (Brown’s) mini-budget:
Inflation’s the problem
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/05/inflations_the_problem.html#commentsanchor
This “borrow to invest” mantra should be exposed as the nonsense it is. When you buy a house most people “borrow to invest” with a mortgage but unfortunately they also have to repay the capital if they want to own the house at the end of the mortgage. Brown’s so called “Golden Rule” involves no capital repayment and worse, the things he invests in such as new schools and roads tend to decline in value.
With this tax change Brown buys himself some more time unless the C&N result is a disaster such as 3rd place.
Meanwhile for those of you that think the LDs ghave a chance in Henley they have done it again and removed their candidate replacing a local female councillor with a male.
I predict that this will reduce the swarms of yellow peril that will invade Henley.
http://tinyurl.com/3qjafv
“Those Liberal Democrats are ruthless. Jonathan Isaby
60-year-old local councillor Susan Cooper was forced to re-apply for the nomination, but failed even to reach the first shortlist after local party worthies sifted through the application forms.
Doesn’t she feel her party has a funny way of thanking her for her efforts? “Yes, but there’s very little I can do about it. I’ve got plenty to do: my garden’s been somewhat neglected of late,” she lamented.”
Replacing a female with a male will create a backlash within the party.
Well, I have eight ‘test cases’ of constituents who were personlaly affected by the 10p abolition, with varying degrees of anger from “I’m not too happy about this” to “I’ll never vote Labour again”. Four have been in touch since yesterday: they are all moderately mollified though not ecstatic - ‘I’m still £30/year down, I suppose that’s not enough to get upset about’ to ‘OK, it shouldn’t have happened but thanks for helping get it fixed’.
As I said yesterday, I don’t think it’ll bring back people who are cheesed off for lots of other reasons too (who saw it as the last straw), but it gives a way back for people who didn’t really want to give up on Labour. So I’d expect a moderate poll recovery. How far that will that affect C&N I have no idea, but the odds against Labour looks quite generous since I don’t think anyone else has any real certainty either. (And before someone quotes the summer storm again, I’ll remind them that it was a report from a single day’s canvassing, and i contradicted it with a downbeat report on another day.)
US election: pretty impressive Hillary result however you look at it, but of course not game-changing. It reinforces the need for a deal, and I noticed SSI (who has said he really dislikes her) making a friendly comment: I think most Democrat activists will be up for a reconciliation (malc4ken obviously not, but you can’t win them all). Whether the blue-collar Hillary core can be brought back even with Hillary onside seems doubtful to me, but let’s hope so.
Hillary ought to have a serious last-ditch effort in Oregon this week. She’s going to walk Kentucky, and everyone expects her to lose big in Oregon for all the obvious reasons plus polls putting her double-digits behind. It’s probably too late given the postal voting system, but there’s nothing to lose, and if she can pull it back to single digits it will strengthen her bargaining hand. I gather Chelsea was leading a huge parade of Clinton supporters in Puerto Rico yesterday, and Michelle O was heading out to marshall the Obama vote, so curiously that may turn out to be the last close-run primary.
One bonus from all of this - when was the last time that EVERY state got to vote before the nomination was completely sewn up? There’s a small-d democratic argument that one should be pleased about that.
[33] Replacing a female with a male will create a backlash within the party - that’s what Hillary thinks, too
33. I think the bigger problem is not that they’ve replaced a female candidate with a male one, but that they’ve replaced a local councillor with an ‘outsider’.
Morning Campers !!!!!!!!
Hardly a suprise that real punters don’t rate Labour in C&N !! Total cock up on the 10p tax rate. Labour down the khazi in this by election.
…………………………
Over the pond.
Handsome win for Hillary. Much to expectations. Small electoral earthquake in West Virginia, Obama still alive. Interesting that Edwards polled 7%.
Perhaps of more note was the 8 point Dem win in Miss 01. The GOP tried to link Childers to Obama and Wright in an extensive and expensive ad buy and failed utterly, spending almost $1.5M in the process.
32. The definition of ‘investment’ tends to be rather elastic as well. Of course the ‘golden rule’ is utter nonsense - it’s just something made up years ago to make Labour look fiscally responsible. The 40% debt ceiling similarly has no economic logic, it was just another attempt to gain a veneer of respectability.
The funny thing is that over time, Labour seem to have actually become quite wedded to these arbitrary and meaningless rules. Remember how Snowflake used to endlessly rant and rave about how public debt was supposedly lower than a decade ago?
Prediction - as public debt spirals over the next couple of years, we may find these ‘rules’ given slightly less emphasis. Perhaps Labour will dust off the Major government’s line that massive state borrowing is essential ‘to protect the vulnerable’ - they will of course mean MPs in marginal seats.
Nick Palmer MP [34] - “As I said yesterday, I don’t think it’ll bring back people who are cheesed off for lots of other reasons too (who saw it as the last straw),….”
Nick Palmer backs Jack Straw. you heard it here first.
33- we’ll see. I suspect the issue for Conservatives is that the Lib Dems have replaced a weaker candidate with a stronger one.
Time is ticking away and the longer the campaign the worse it is for incumbents.
34 Nick P. “There’s a small-d democratic argument that one should be pleased about that.”
You might have made the same argument when “Our Gawd” had his North Korean moment in the Labour leadership election !!
37 Morning, young Jack.
“Interesting that Edwards polled 7%.”
John boy for VP, perhaps? I’ve heard sillier suggestions…Hillary, for example.
Might affect the GOP VP market?
“A case of Too Much Information - and, quite honestly, what degree of information wouldn’t be too much? - about the s£x lives of pint-sized war veteran John McCain and his inner circle. Hot on the heels of the problematic mental image conjured up by the liberal doyenne Arianna Huffington in a television interview last week (”[McCain] has such a passion for Iraq - that’s his V1agra”) comes a local radio appearance by Tim Pawlenty, governor of Minnesota, co-chair of the McCain campaign and a leading potential candidate for vice-president. “I have a wife who genuinely loves to fish,” said Pawlenty, as the conversation turned to family recreation. “I mean, she will take the lead and ask me to go out fishing. She loves football, she’ll go to hockey games … Now, if only I could get her to have s£x with me.” Gasps all round, not least because - well, it’s almost sort of funny, isn’t it? OK, maybe not. “It’s a joke, it’s a joke,” Pawlenty hastened to clarify, but perhaps it’s strategic? No need to worry about McCain’s lack of affinity with the Christian conservative base, after all, if there’s a confirmed practitioner of abstinence on the ticket. Sure, promoting celibacy may not be trendy now, but future generations will thank us.
Cringe…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/14/usa
I have just heard a phone-in programme on Radio Scotland about the tax changes, and Darling, Broon and the Labour government were getting it in the neck. And this from ordinary people. Labour have come out of this with no credit at all.
27. dont worry, as soon as turkey joins the EU, he will be on his way.
And please note that as I predicted earlier this week, UK unemployment is now rising.
whohahahahaha
I’d like to go back, if I may, to the lively discussion about inflation rates, real and concocted, that was held here a day or two ago.
Presumably different households buy different baskets of goods and so experience different inflation rates. I wonder how hard it would be to identify a “pensioners basket” (which might, for example, include more food and less white goods and electronica - I don’t know) and then say that benefit uprating would be by whichever of that or the RPI was higher. Might be a useful gizmo for the government to introduce in the autumn of its days - the Tories would be vulnerable if they didn’t promise to keep to the arrangement once in office.
35 and 36, let us see how the female LD’s react.
Its a bribe - since all standard tax payers get it (except pensioners) it cannot be seen as compensation for the lowest earners in that group. Their position relative to those earning rather more is unchanged - hardly compensation.
The whole thing has put the public finances in further disarray in an attempt at short term political expediency - which has already unravelled. The worst of all worlds !
37 - 8-point win! That is a phenomenal result in MS-01 - I said to Kieran last week that I thought they would sneak it this time and then lose it back again in November, but with that sort of lead, they mighht hold on.
Very impressive.
45 Gaz. “…turkey joins the EU..”
Gobble Gobble …. Bernard Matthews Alert !!!!!!!!
Advert of the day?
“Lib Dems can’t win here”
on the Lib Dem Blogs website.
http://tinyurl.com/yoke8d
37. Jack - I am not so sure about C&N as I believe the the Dunwoody “brand” is very strong in Crewe and a significant proportion of Labour voters will regard that as more important than Labour’s failings at National level:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/14/byelections.labour
42 PtP.
Hi Peter. Edwards has said no to the Veep spot.
Labour will get no credit for this - I still expect the Crewe result to be disastrous and Brown to be forced out shortly thereafter.
34: Brown must have real contempt for Labour voters if he thinks such a blatant bribe designed to put right a mess of his making will get them back in the fold.
40: ‘…the longer the campaign the worse it is for incumbents.’
I was in Henley a few weeks ago, and I’d have thought there’s about as much chance of that constituency electing a non-Tory as of me flying to the moon - lots of gruff old boys in blazers walking around with one hand behind their back.
53 Goupillon. Nope !!!. Labour down the pan in C&N.
It’ll be sympathy for Tamsin but vote Tory. The punters are intent of giving the government in general and Brown in particular a good tonking and they will use the Conservatives as the vehicle to do it.
Just to confirm, I believe that Darling did say that the higher rate threshold would be reduced by £600. Nevertheless, HMRC are correct in saying that to be neutral to higher rate tax payers it does need to be reduced by £1,200.
If my recollection on Darling is correct, will he have to make another statement apologising? Also, how did the error occur? Is this another example of the Treasury, especially politicians and special advisers, not really understanding what they are doing?
27. True. But if you want to travel and see the world, it’s par for the course.
They spot you a mile off. And, being British and polite, ıt’s hard to ignore them, or tell them to f**k off.
But… you have to learn to be hard and take the abuse. A genuinely friendly foreigner won’t come up to you in the street.
Funny thing is.. I know all this, but I’ve almost been caught out recently, purely because I was tired, didn’t think and let my guard down.
Best thing?
Go with your gut feeling - if *anyone? initiates anythıng wıth you ın a touristy area.. be suspicious.
Unemployment up by 14k
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7400079.stm
54 - Do you have a link to that? I had not heard he had rejected it in terms.
59 - Misleading the house used to be a resignation issue.
16. Casino.
lol. That’s fantastic. The guy who first scammed me with the dropped brush even tried the same line: about “hungry kids in Ankara” - as he tried to gouge me for 10 lire. (He got 2).
Istanbul still rocks, though, does it not? Magnificently fascinating place. Right now I am off to see the place where the sultan’s son was executed, in the time-honoured manner: by having his teesticles slowly crushed.
Gule gule!
Ah but is Cameron a Conservative?
Heffer, who else in today’s Telegraph
http://tinyurl.com/4j7vya
“David Cameron, prove to me that you’re a Tory”
I said this immediately after Darling’s announcement and having just read through the morning papers I am more clear than ever that this desperate short term play has much wider signifigance.
Broon has basically lost one of his key attacks on the Conservatives. That being the accusation of an unfunded Conservative black hole in relation to spending/tax policy followed by the Broon mantra that he is prudent, competent and won’t risk stability in the long term for short term gain.
That line of attack has gone and he doesn’t have much left.
Just try and imagine what Broon and his lackeys would have said if Cameron had answered that bloke in C&N with..”well I’ll put up the personal allowance and borrow to fund it” to see what I mean.
40.”33- we’ll see. I suspect the issue for Conservatives is that the Lib Dems have replaced a weaker candidate with a stronger one.”
What a charming way to describe a local candidate who was good enough for a GE campaign!
44.”Darling, Broon and the Labour government were getting it in the neck”
FergusMac, when it comes to tipping points I would say that the Labour party, and in particular Gordon Brown has reached that point already in Scotland. This week will just accelerate the decline, and as for Wee Wendy, words fail me!
More bad news for Gordo. The first time in 150 yrs that a sitting Prime Minister has not featured at Madame Tussauds. A massive 83.8% voted NO in an online poll.
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/2008/05/whos-missing-fr.html
Misleading the house used to be a resignation issue
Now the ability to do so is a vital qualification for office.
65 - Sometimes I really do want to beat Heffer into a gibbering pulp. We know what unrestrained Hefferism led to it wasn’t Conservative poll leads of 26%.
62 James. Edwards has said it a few times most recently on the Larry King show on Monday evening.
54 Noted with thanks, Jack.
Still think laying Hillary for VP is free money though, as I mentioned to Mrs Test on the previous thread.
37 - To put that spending into context, it’s an average detached house in Surrey. I’m pretty sure the GOP can afford the hit…
Heffer voted UKIP last time - where are they now ?
He’s a useful idiot for Cameron - I wonder if he’s in on the joke or not ?
63: Can we start with Brown and his massive lie last week?
65: The Hefferlump is the sort of person Cameron wants attcking him to show howfar away he is from them.
65 John Rentoul asks the same question… things to come?
David Cameron vs the Tory Party
By John Rentoul
David Cameron voted against the majority of Conservative MPs who took part in the division yesterday on the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill. He was one of 37 Tories voting in favour; 49 voted against. The rest found something better to do. According to the incomparable Professor Philip Cowley of Revolts.co.uk, this is the fourth time he has been in a minority in his own party in Commons votes recently.
The others were votes cast in favour an 80-per-cent-elected House of Lords (where the Conservatives split 80/103 against); gay adoption (where the Conservatives split 29/85 against); and the abolition of blasphemy (where the Conservatives split 37/51 against). In each case, the party leader found himself in a minority of his party.
He really is beginning to resemble Tony Blair. (On whose absence from politics Robert Harris is well worth reading today.)
Jack/Morus/SSI…Do you know the final result of the Ohio primary? Yesterday, a couple of posters here reported that some 50,000 votes were shifted from Clinton to Obama, representing some 1.5%. Does that mean that Hillary actually won by only something like 6-7%?
The Iowa Exchanges completely unmoved by the Hillary’s win in WV, clearly having discounted the win :
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
59/63 - No, both HMRC and Darling were correct. There are two different ways of describing the threshold depending on how you treat the allowance. So the total income at which you start paying the higher rate falls by £1200 but the TAXABLE income you need to start paying the higher rate (the “threshold”) falls by only £600 due to the increase in the allowance.
76. See 74 but omit the “useful”
65/70/74/75 - FOUR references to the Silly ‘Effer? Didn’t realise he had that many readers.
65 - Heffer’s just a plank. He’s one of these people who think only people exactly like him should be Tories. Most of that ilk joined UKIP.
GAH.
81 - I read him simply to try to see any reason to be charitable and am constantly thwarted.
65. Heffer is an idiot mired in the past. He cannot accept the fact that the tories have become a great deal more electable under Cameron, because ever since Cameron became leader he has criticised his every move. Heffer has become obsessed with being proved right over this, no matter what kind of evidence to the contrary is being produced. Massive poll leads, thousands more councillors, government on the ropes, and Heffer still has as go at Cameron, and still says he isn’t up to the job.
Heffer is correct, Cameron is not a Tory, (anymore than Blair was a socialist). Cameron has never called himeslf a Tory, he describes himself as , ‘Liberal Conservative’ but what he really is, is a paternalistic Socialist, in the Macmillan tradition.
Tony Blair got into power by convincing the voters he wasn’t a socialist, Cameron is attempting to get into power by convincing the voters he is a Socialist: well he’s convinced me!!
I am not one who generally rushes to defend Comrades Darling or Brown, but I do think they have acted correctly in this case - however much it hurt their pride to do so - Brown’s face as this was read out in the commons didn’t exactly suggest euphoria…
They have responded, however belatedly, to public and MP concerns, and have acted in a way that mitigates the damage to most of the people concerned, gives a mild boost to a lot of other people facing financial troubles, and took some from the wealthier - a small step towards proper redistribution, but a step none the less!
To attack them for doing what everyone was calling for them to do now smacks of hypocrisy and media spin - by the media
71 - I am more cynical than you, Jack. My reading of the Larry King thing was Obama said he had “no intention” of doing it and that he was focussed on the fight against poverty. But if Obama leaned on him, I think he could very easily say it was the best way to further his fight against poverty etc. The VP slot would have to be very tempting for Edwards, who has no elected position and would be young enough in 2016 to slide into Obama’s shoes. The last thing you want to say as a potential VP is “I’d love to do it” then not get asked by the nominee.
[65] Be fair to poor Simon Heffer. At least he compares himself to a badly-trained dog who does unmentionables on the best rug… and which of us would wish to gainsay him?
64. It’s a great place. Superb city!
Been outside the touristy areas yet?
Try Dolmabache Palace and further up along the Bosphorus shoreline up to Bebek. Been to the Black Sea?
Also, Levent/Etiler is where the real money is at. Ferrari/Porsche garages/Banks galore etc.. Bit more relaxed up there - sans tourists!
But watch out for the friendly Turks wanting to take you for a drink at night..
77 John O. I think the final figure is a Clinton win by 8.8%.
72 PtP. I think Obama will win with or without Clinton but bigger with her.
She’ll strengthen his weaker demographics in seniors, women, lunch bucket, conservative Democrats and put Arkansas on the table. Additionally team Clinton would be a big campaigning plus.
The question is can Obama get past the “personal” and keep his eyes on the main prize …… namely PBers 50/1 tickets !!
77 - Hadn’t heard a thing, but will look into that - could still be important in the PV discussion.
[71] Isn’t there a long tradition in US politics of saying “I will not run, I will not be drafted and if elected I will not serve” which everyone interprets as “I’m gagging for it”
53 Goupillon
The Guardian lost all credibility in their coverage of the London Mayor contest.
They are thoroughly unreliable currently incapable of giving any objective insights into the realities of an election campaign. It was not always thus.
Imagine how unpleasant the country would be run by John Gaunt, Simon Heffer and Richard Littlejohn. It’s enough to make nice Tories cry. But then a selection of the most nauseating lefties: Say Johann Hari and Julie Burchill for some high-pitched hysteria, would be just as bad.
Thank god journalism takes the most unpleasant people out of politics (Alistair Campbell obviously slipped the net)
79 - That is utter rubbish.
86. Sorry, remind me, who exactly was asking them to increase public borrowing by 2.7bn?
81: Heffer is regularly brought here as an example of how Cameron is not a Tory, how the grassroots don’t like him, or some such nonsense. You read his rants, like those of Kevin Maguire, and Johann Hari, because you know the opposite of what he says is right.
87 James. “Cynical” … moi !!
The scuttlebug is that Edwards wants to be Attorney General. Obama might consider that Edwards has sat on the fence too long. However Obama will want Edwards on board, he too brings a dynamic to the ticket.
97. True, anything Heffer says about Cameron is usually heavily laden with assumptions and arrogant opinion, usually to back up a very tenuous point.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=254081ec-e21b-4a73-91f3-a6cc8e4ba75d
New SUSA match-up poll for Washington:
Obama 54 McCain 42
Clinton 49 McCain 45
76. Don’t the press understand what a ‘free vote’ means?
The 80/20 vote on Lords reform is hardly recent - its from 2002 IIRC. Presumably he voted with the majority on all the other plethora of options.
89. I’ve barely been outside Sultanahmet, so far (but then I love history, and it’s quite an intoxicating area. There are Byzantine graves at the doorway to my hotel. Perhaps they tried the fish sandwiches).
Eventually I am headed for the Princes Islands, in the Sea of Marmara - have you been there? Meant to be lovely. That’s the ostensible reason for my visit (a magazine travel piece). I might try the Bosphorus too - sounds cool.
After that I think I’m going to go down to Troy and then the Dardanelles.
It’s dark and lonely work, travelwriting, but someone’s got to do it.
Heffer’s main agenda is to try to sink the Cameroon venture and restore a right wing anti-Europe ultra-monetarist leadership to the Tories (Redwood is his hero). Hence he’s already been touting around for a successor to Brown (eg by advocating D Milliband) because he fears Brown is a loser and will allow his bete noir ie Cameron into power. For that reason he also backed Clegg as Lib Dem leader as he felt his more right wing stance (compared to Huhne) would attract the sort of voters who might otherwise vote for Cameron.
#79 Yes, the measures are neutral for 40% tax-payers (they don’t gain or loose), however ~150,000 tax payers are pulled into the 40% band and as a consequence will find themselves completing a tax return, which I’m sure will delight them.
It’s a mistake to term it a tax-cut, tax cuts can only be delivered by corresponding cuts in expenditure as we are constantly told.
It’s simply a 1-off payment of £120 for ~22M people, administered through the tax system, and paid for on UK plc’s credit card. We pay the bill+interest at some point in the future, either through a tax rise or a cut in expenditure.
102. Bastard!
Nope. ‘Fraid I haven’t there! I’d Love to see Troy/Gallipoli - but I know it takes HOURS to get there.
I come here on business… the kind where you stay in a nice (but bland) hotel and work in an office
Sultanahmet has lots of great stuff - and you’re visting at just the right time. Outside peak season, but still warm!
Enjoy
[76] How do we that David Cameron actually isn’t Tony Blair - you never see them together.
A Pedant Writes: Cameron has far better taste in women.
98. I think you mean “scuttlebutt” Jack W.
“Scuttlebutt” is a noun meaning idle chatter and gossip, derived from a naval term for the ship’s drinking fountain: around which sailors would natter.
A “scuttlebug”, by contrast, appears to be a brand of kid’s tricycle.
I thought “Jack W” was meant to be an ex-military man? Surely he’d have known this. The committee is getting lax..
The “Portland Tribune” figures for their poll I posted yesterday have been amended thus :
Clinton 35% .. Obama 55%
http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story.php?story_id=121064144749596700
people such as Heffer and Hari have never, since leaving University, done anything but write comments for gullible newspapers. Who on earth would take advice from them? Their views on politics and government are as relevant as those of Wayne Rooney, as they all have a single vote.
I can imagine a version of Big Brother, with Heffer, Hari, Toynbee, Littlejohn, Street-Porter, Alibhai Brown and the brothers Hitchens all being locked up together - what attruly hideous sight it would be.
92 - It’s called the Shermanesque denial, but isn’t considered to be code at all. If you give a Shermanesque denial, it means you are definitely out of it - giving anything less, however, ensures that people interpret your prevarication as meaning that you are very keen.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shermanesque_statement
SeanT,
Take the 90-minute ferries from downtown Istanbul to the Princes Islands in the Sea of Marmora. Quite stunning for a day trip.
(They were so named because of the Byzantine emperors’ practice of sending bothersome princes there to be blinded, exiled or executed. Thought you’d like that detail. Perhaps Gordon could use Canvey Island for the same purpose - are you listening, Frank?)
Peter Golds, they are called the Commentariat. An unelected group of twitterers that in the era of limited channels could control the access to facts.
No more. If they interpret polls wrong there are real challenges from sites like this one.
[109] I’m pretty sure that one difference is that Heffer and Hari always vote. That would seem to be a large claim in the case of Mr Rooney.
109 - If we did get those luminaries in the Big Brother house would it be possible to lose the keys and electrify the perimeter?
109: ‘I can imagine a version of Big Brother, with Heffer, Hari, Toynbee, Littlejohn, Street-Porter, Alibhai Brown and the brothers Hitchens all being locked up together - what attruly hideous sight it would be.’
But an easy target for carpet bombing.
107 seanT.
…. scuttlebug has other meanings !! 
111 Posted beofre I saw your 102. You are a very fortunate man - stunning scenery, old Greek Orthodox Monastaries in picturesque hill-top settings, the only noise being bird-song and the (surprisingly loud) clanking from the shells of rutting tortoises…
115 You have a truly warped imagination.
New Strategic Vision Presidential Poll for Georgia :
McCain 54% .. Obama 40%
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_051408.htm
118: Bless.
RE Henley by election LD candidate change. Who said there would be no backlash?
Linda Jack LD MEP candidate and LD member of their Federal Policy committee writes.
“Are we really saying we have no women approved candidates able to cut the mustard in a by election? I can’t believe that.
So yet again we will have dissent in the party which could so easily have be avoided.”
http://tinyurl.com/5ztxrp
121, why should it be a woman?
Surely the candidate should be given the task based on merit, not gender.
It’s bigotry to demand someone is put there to keep the numbers of a given demographic up. Meritocracy beats demographic representation.
106. Indeed. Isn’t Ms.Booth simply the most ghastly, common person?
119 - Just to show what a weight Bush wil be for the GOP this year - he has a 41/49 approval rating in Georgia.
O/T - For those who want another very long-odds Obama style bet….
Follow Scott Kleeb, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Nebraska. He will be their high-water mark surprise winner in November.
And he will be President by 2020.
Don’t worry about that, HF (121). She always says things like that. It’s her USP.
LD candidate..
http://www.plymdems.info/PlymdemTeam.html
The Guv says inflation WILL get worse:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7400074.stm
re 121 - Linda Jack LD MEP candidate and LD member of their Federal Policy committee writes.
“Are we really saying we have no women approved candidates able to cut the mustard in a by election? I can’t believe that.
So yet again we will have dissent in the party which could so easily have be avoided.”
Linda appears to have either forgotten about the candidate in Crewe & Nantwich, or says she can’t cut the mustard… take your pick.
Didn’t the Lib Dems drop a male candidate for a woman in C&N? It’s horses for courses surely.
Bradford and Bingley getting tanked today after rights issue announced - I wonder if their “prime” buy to let mortgage book will be snapped up by Brown and Darling
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/3/498/0/default.stm
I think what all this shows it how sensible it is for Cameron to try and avoid making ANY promises on tax cuts, and face down his internal critics. It was a sound enough strategy when Labour were trying to give the impression of running the economy prudently, god knows what mess he could inherit if they continue to bribe people out of public borrowing.
47. That sort of thinking is where the winter fuel allowance came from I believe.
113. I’m sure Mr Rooney has more influence, however
130 - Yes - at least they seem to treat both sexes equally!
Henley LD candidate’s charity:
http://www.regeneratetrust.com/index1.html
minor technical point: doesn’t “unfunded tax cut” mean the promise of one that cannot be carried out because it doesn’t add up.
I would have thought that any tax cut in government is by definition “funded” because it is happening. Funded by borrowing or cuts elsewhere, fine, but still funded.
If you believe that tax cuts in recession are a bad idea, I think the expression should be “irresponsible tax cut” rather than “unfunded”
132. This is only the start. There is going to be £10-20bn more by the time the election comes around.
132.Alex - So the proposal to raise the IHT threshold to £1M was not sensible and of course could not be described as a “bribe”.
109 - Indeed. Straight from writing juvenile crap for student rags to writing exactly the same juvenile crap for national rags. A few years of doing some bloody work and growing up before opining in national newspapers would have done wonders for Heffer and Hari.
76. All of these votes are mainly on social issues though, where a free vote would be expected in most circumstances.
I agree that David Cameron is more in the center of his party, but I don’t think he’ll be at loggerheads with the Tories like Tony Blair frequently was with Labour. Except for the right wing nutters like Heffer and Redwood, Cameron is pretty much in tune with most of his party on most of the big issues. With Tony Blair you honestly got the feeling he didn’t like Labour very much, and that he could quite easily have stood as a Tory PM and sat happily with the Tories. Cameron, by contrast, is clearly a Conservative. Hss been all his life and will be as long as he’s alive. I don’t think he dislikes his party or his supporters in the way Blair clearly did.
138. to be fair they are paid to be “thought-provoking” i.e. extreme
135 One of the tragedies of this is that a general tax cut could have been presented as a sensible measure to help prevent the economy sliding into recession and justified on its own merits, as has been the case in the USA and Spain. Because of the almighty cock-up over 10p we now have a general tax cut which is presented as a desperate fix to get the government out of a hole of its own making.
140 - You can provoke thought without being extreme.
137 Last December Ms Smith said that the Government couldn’t fully fund the police pay rise because of the risk to the economy. Loss per policeman was about £200 per capita this year for 140,000 officers. But Chancellor can now fund 20 million plus with a £120 tax cut.
Every union leader will be looking at this and will argue that if he can fund tax cuts he should be able to fund pay rises.
139. that is not a very balanced viewpoint. Cameron has yet to produce any traditional Conservative policies.
Blair has already delivered a decade worth of relatively harmonious goverment (by which I mean, few revolts)
141. …and a mere three weeks after presenting a Budget that claimed the economic fundamentals were sound, and that a fiscally neutral budget was appropriate.
141. right policy (in the end), disastrous presentation.
I still don’t understand how they didn’t see this coming. Considering how complex some aspects of the tax system are, this 10p c0ck-up did not even require a calculator to spot.
I can only imagine that they thought it would go unnoticed and uncriticised (being made, as it was, during a period of polling success for Lab)
145 - Get with the excuse of the moment, it’s all America’s fault!
144: Miss his policies on IHT, and money to married couples.
On the subject of Cameron’s jokes - the crucial point is that they were self mocking jokes. Cameron showed that he’s able to tease his own side. An excellent facility. Now if Brown could show a vague sign of such slightly self deprecating humour …
143. Ah yes but the government claimed they didn’t want to fund the pay rise because it would raise inflation. That was economically nonsensical, but does allow them to claim they are being consistent….if only in deceiving the public.
A new-ish site for Brown fans
http://brown-out.blogspot.com/
145. the two are not mutually exclusive. It is possible (common, even) to have a sound fundamentals but suffer in a period of wider economic turbulence.
135 tax cuts in a recession can be the right thing to do, in some circumstances, they can lubricate the system and keep it going, but doing so when you have record high psbr is not a good idea.
When you are maxed out on credit cards, it aint a good idea to take out a store card and max it out.
139 - I don’t think that is right. It doesn’t explain why Blair stood as a Labour candidate in 1983 when it had it’s most left-wing manifesto in living memory and in danger of extinction. Why go through all that hastle if he was a Tory?
Blair differed with his party most over foreign policy where he had a very interventionist attitude (some would argue this is left-wing). On domestic policy he disagreed on means rather than ends. His position was also mindful of the electorate, similar to David Cameron.
As ed says the test will come in government as to how well Cameron can hold his party together.
146 How can a policy that still leaves 1.1 million of the poorest wage earners worse off be the right policy? Another half-arsed effort that has cost £2.7 bllion but doesn’t fix the problem. How very New Labour. But if Frank Field won’t fight for them anymore, I guess they are lost. If I were Cameron, I would lead on this aspect at PMQ’s.
148. one has already gone through [this was either copied by Lab to shoot it down, or originally a Lab policy leaked and unveiled by Con], the other would not stand up to real scrutiny I don’t think. Neither are particularly hardcore.
149. If Brown knows what is good for him he should steer clear of trying jokes. Even if he had a good one he was itching to tell, going head to head on presentation is not the game he needs to be playing.
117. Ta!
I do hope you are right, about the Princes Islands, because they sound just as they imagined them. i.e. three chapters of Tom Knox’s thriller - The Genesis Secret - are set in an old Ottoman summerhouse, the home of Angela Previn, a retired, rather eccentric and possibly lesb1an Cambridge archaeologist - who lives on one of the Princes islands.
I wrote the chapters and set them there without having actually been. I just thought they looked kinda “nice” on the map, and then vaguely guessed what they must be like.
Missed the lovely detail about the tortoises though.
At least now, once I’ve been, I’ll be able to tell people “oh yes, of course I visited all the locations in the book, that’s called research” - I just won’t mention that I visited some of the locations after I wrote about them.
154. Youthful idiocy. By the time he became a shadow minister he had grown out of his childish attachment to socialism, but it was far too late to change parties then - and Labour were anyway on the up, so from a careerist perspective it would have made no sense.
153. and that is one of the debates we should be having. I personally think at the moment it probably is a good idea, or at least a neutral one. The sad thing is that it has all been lost in a mess of tabloid headlines about U-turns and the poor being hammered.
The credit card analogy does not work. A more appropriate analogy would be taking out a mortgage to buy a nicer house.
158….and of course his dreadful other half wouldn’t have let him either.
158 - Tony Blair is as much a conservative as seanT is a europhile!
159. I think, more akin to remortgaging…. This is extending the amount of debt without any kind of return or investment.
144. What is your definition of “tradition conservative” though? I think you mean Thatcherite? If that is what you mean, then I would say Thatcher was not a traditional conservative. Over a long historical period, Thatcher was way to the right of the mainstream conservative party. And I’d also say that the Conservatives have a long history of changing and evolving to suit the political times, so the defintion of a tradition conservative is also a moving thing.
154. I think Blair’s view evolved radically in the late 80’s and early 90’s. I don’t deny that early in his life he was a leftwinger, but by the time he became PM and certainly by the time he left office, I think he had come to pretty much despise Labour, actually.
As far as why there were so few rebellions in his terms, well thats what landslide majorities do for you. He also had a chancellor that blocking most of his public service reforms, so he never got the chance to take on his party on a lot of health and education reforms.
162. In a market where borrowing is more expensive.
Is there a PMQs betting market today ?
127 and 134.
Noted that a Julia Olsen appears on both sites, the Plymdems and “regenerate”.
So presumably well connected with Kearney?
Lembit is a Trustee of Regenerate so that must be Kearney’s backer?
161. He’s not a hardcore Tory, for sure. But I think his opinions and instincts are pretty indistinguishable from Heathite europhiles like Ken Clarke, Ian Taylor et al. Not that I think they are proper Tories either, but that’s a discussion for another day…
76/139-Were the Labur party given a free vote, or the LDs? Am pretty sure they were whipped for the abolition of Clause 28.
157 Wow Tom Knox has writtena a new thriller - I can’t wait to buy it, what was the name again “The Genesis Secret”? - I must make sure to reserve my copy today
157 SeanT, whilst you are in Sultanahmet, I assume you have been down into the 6th Century Cistern?
167. Well, on domestic issues, he is probably close to Hezza than Thatcher. But don’t forget Dvaid Cameron is very much a eurosceptic as is the vast majority of the Conservative party now.
171. I was talking about Tony Bliar.
172 - Yes and talking rot, Tony Blair was never a Conservative though it suited him to be seen as such as a ruse de guerre. He is about as right wing as he’s Protestant.
163. I take your point, but basically the only definition I have heard by which Cameron appears to fit in as a “proper” Conservative is the one where you say “the party is constantly evolving, he is where it is at now”. Most of his party appear to be to the right of him.
I would guess that Thatcher had a lot of influence on current Con MPs - many grew up and formed some of their opinions during that era.
In the same way, many in the Lab party now cut their teeth under people like Foot; as mentioned above, Blair is an example.
So even if the two parties appear indistinguishable now (they do to me on most policy points, they do to a lot of people I know), their starting points are very, very different.
135
If you don’t have the funds (through growth or cuts) to fund a tax cut and have to borrow,by definition it is unfunded.
So its both unfunded and irresponsible, £ 2.7 billion has to be borrowed to cover the £ 630 million tax rebate to low eaners,difficult to imagine a more expensive way of doing it.
Mike
This is Test.
This name (with email address) has just popped up in my window without me doing anything to attempt to access it
Does PB have a fault… howcome I can see Gin’s email address?
(GIN - I give you my word I will keep your id absolutely private)
testing
173. But you could say that about Heath as well, with whom I think Blair has much in common. Though not as much as some of his former colleagues…
I had to re-enter my name and email address in the boxes where Gin’s details popped up
176. Please stop using multiple identities Moggie.
180 Not my fault Guv. Mani pulite, see?
Test
I’m Test!!!
(or is it Spartacus?… I can never remember which)
Test
With alex, it’s because we were both using the same made-up email address (I’ve now switched) but I can find no such explanation as to why I suddenly had Gin’s login. All I was refresh PB as I’m working.
175. this doesn’t really make a lot of sense though.
Government funds, like the accounts of any organisation, are just one big pool of debts and cashflow, and in the end it must all be accounted for. Debt is funding just like any other. All governments make use of it.
164. in a market where private borrowing is more expensive, in fact goverment borrowing is not, particularly (in fact there is a certain flight to quality, and those wanting to deal in bonds want to deal in the safest ones they can find, i.e. UK treasuries).
185. Do you work in the same office? Or perhaps on the same network?
185. Do you work in the same office? …or perhaps on the same network?
155 - Those people (or the vast majority) will have benefitted from the minimum wage and tax credits. (Indeed tax credits will mean many will have negative tax rates). Yes they wil lose out on this one tax change to the tune of £1-a-week or less, but taken as a whole the decisions of the government have improved their living standards considerably.
149
A good one on Balls.
‘Ed Balls is the man with the most appropriate surname since Thomas Crapper invented the lavatory’
190 - From the man who promised to end punch and judy politics!
90 Jack - Re HRC…
Yes, I agree he would win bigger with her; in fact, I suspect it would be a landslide. The problem is that he then has to govern with her. If you were President, would you want Hillary down the hallway? You’d want a very reliable foodtaster….
95 - If you are going to say I am talking “rubbish” please do me the courtesy of explaining.
The term “threshold” in context refers to the level of taxable income required to fall into each income tax band. That is the sense in which HMRC use the term and the threshold for higher rate tax has reduced by £600 precisely as the Chancellor said. However, because the allowance has been increased by £600, the total income at which you pay higher rate tax has fallen by £1200.
There are all sorts of criticisms you can fairly level at teh Chancellor, but there was nothing misleading about what he said. The threshold as the term is commonly used has reduced by £600 and nobody will pay more income tax (in the short term anyway!) as a result of the changes.
190 - Thomas Crapper did not invent the lavatory which was in existence long before he was born. He invented the ballcock.
190 JohnF
I believe the term ‘crapper’ arose from the name of the distinguished inventor.
195 - Probably not true. The word “crap” meaning to defecate predates Crapper’s career by many decades. The term “crapper” for toilet was coined many years after his career ended. So it is unclear whether “crapper” comes from Thomas Crapper or is derived from the pre-existing word “crap”. I suspect the latter - although there were Crapper branded lavatories, it was not a common brand name by the time the term was first used.
193 - A threshold is the dividing line between two things. In this case 20% and 40% tax. The threshold was 36000 of taxable income and is now 34,800 of taxable income. The threshold has moved by 1200 pounds and no amount of semantics will alter that fact.
Thanks James. I’d always assumed the term ‘crap’ derived from TC’s name.
I stand corrected.
66. They are not insignificant numbers on the Cameron side of the equation and they too are Tories.
My suspicion is that on issues such as gay adoption, younger Tories were with him.
You will be shocked to know that there are a few Traditional oldies in the Tory benches!
I suspect that if there is a new intake of a significant number at the next GE, they will overall be more like Cameron.
Its true to say there are plenty of old farts out in the assocations but they have been through some apocolyptic times and so many are grateful to him and have come round. Even the dyed in the blue wool types realise that new members are like gold dust [for all parties] and the new ones coming in are pro-Cameron.
These people are at the sharp end. They are not Heffers, sitting on their ever growing backsides feeding their insatiable ego. Most party members have worked hard for years with no reward and very little light on the horizon. If you are party chair and someone brings in votes, seats and members you give them a chance. If the new members are putting in time and money even if they have some surprisingly liberal views, they tolerate it at worst and for the most part they listen.
People who join the Tory party do not tend to be imploite firebrands. They know how to talk to oldies.
192 PtP.
Crap
[Middle English crappe, chaff, from Old French crappe, from Medieval Latin crappa, perhaps of Germanic origin.]
Crap - all this talk of it has made me realise I need to dump my lunch.
Please excuse me.
PMQ’s is on!
197 - But the threshold only changes by £600 in relation to taxed income James. It is a semantic point but rather crucial if you are going to accuse Darling of lying to the House. And it certainly remains correct as he said that higher rate taxpayers will not pay more tax (hence the £600 figure is the better one to use in some ways as saying £1200 implies you are taking more off the top slice than you are giving in the bottom which would be inaccurate).
197. I think what he said was pretty clear and well understood.
They’re scrutinising the 10p tax on Radio 2 now.
Just pretend it isn’t Jeremy ‘howdy partner’ Vine
PMQ’s - Cleggover toasts Brown over the 10p shambles …. warming up for Cammy !!
203. Ahhh better!!
Re: PMQs - just like my toilet trip.
Brown terrible.. etc
I almost feel sorry for Gordie. Poor man.
’short term decisions in front of the national interest’ - that’s the soundbite from Cammo.
What was wrong with Cameron, is the plan to keep Gordon in office?
Brown handled that well
Brown slaughtered by his lies on Scotland, 10p etc… hilarious.
“fessed up”? … and a hint that PMQs are on the way out?
211. Unless Balls replaces him, I can’t see Labour doing much worse without him in charge (despite that sun poll)
They did make that waxworks at Madame T’s and he is doing PMQs.
Get the sense from the Labour backbenchers that they have a bit of a hangover from yesterday.
OT Speaker off the hook because apparently spending 4k on your wife’s taxi fares is “reasonable….”
Winteron…more waxworks.
PMQ’s. Not quite so fluent from Cammy today in an open goal situation. Brown only border-line average and Clegg OK.
Not exactly vintage stuff from any of them.
Great C&N question! It’s made him mad!
Marvellous backbench question Gordo asked whether he could confirm that he would be visiting Crewe and Nantwich. Answer ” No I cannot”
I agree this has been a score draw which considering is a good effort from Gordy. But the last thing we need to do is kill this guy off. He’s hopeless. Keep him propped up till 2010.
221. Difficult to do justice to his intonation in the answer, but a classic.
JackW its not an open goal. Its quite awkward. Does he say he wants to take the money back and have them throw it at him at the byelection?
Brown terrible over Boris. He did not congratulate him at PMQs. He ‘welcomed’ him. It look him weeks to ring Salmond. He may never ring Boris.
That question and the ‘visiting C&N’ questions rattled him.
think cameron is saving his ammo for the pre queen speak response, which is what the news coverage is going to focus on
“My suspicion is that on issues such as gay adoption, younger Tories were with him.”
The 2005 intake overwhelmingly voted against the Sexual Orientation Regulations. In fact, they were more likely to do so than the Parliamentary party as a whole.
Brown has withdrawn from attacking back, to a more defensive posture at PMQ’s. The result is whereas he cannot get badly beaten, he also can’t win, and it leaves Cameron the field to make his points. Brown has always forgotten PMQ’s is about playing to the crowd as much as playing to your own side.
222 a sort of score draw, its a question og how it plays in the media. Clegg hopeless after Cable had welcomed the changes. Brown will be seen as duplicitous. I wonder if DC is toning it down to keep Broon where he is, he’s the Tories best asset.
I note he didnt say I million out of poverty, its was down to the actual figue of 600k. A 400k cut!
223 Sounded like a mumbled to the chest, ‘no i haven’t done my homework’
226 I bow to your knowlegde but thats a shame.
Did I hear Gordon lying to the House?
ALL taxpayers will receive £120 - a household with two taxpayers will receive £240? Is that REALLY what he said?
It’s a downright, obvious lie, of course.
Those over the age of 65 are excluded from this bribe and will get Sweet Fanny Adams.
If he doesn’t KNOW that, then perhaps one of his colleagues with a PhD in sums will explain it to the poor old geezer.
225. Forgot about that, should be interesting.
It’ll be interesting when the Conservatives are in government. In London, it’s quite clear that two separate groups of voters turned overwhelmingly against Labour.
(a) white working, and lower middle class, voters. Boris carried all of the Becontree estate (apart from Becontree ward), South Bermondsey, Gooshays, St. Helier, Roehampton, Hainault, racked up a gigantic lead in Bexley and Havering, and even managed to carry Greenwich and Hounslow narrowly.
(b) more affluent (and probably more liberal) voters, in places like Richmond, Kingston, Southgate, Hampstead, who backed Ken in 2004.
My guess is that David Davis and Nick Herbert would work hard to keep group (a) happy, and Cameron would work hard to keep group (b) happy.
Also interesting (and unsurprising) to note that Johnson ran up some stonking leads in Jewish wards.
230 Had the Catholic adoption agencies been exempted, I’m sure the number voting against would have been less.
Don’t both Clegg and Cameron have a second bite of the cherry WRT the “draft Queen’s speech” - they might be saving their main attacks/soundbites for this rather than PMQ’s.
233. How about the muslim wards?
236. Ask the local community representative, he probably filled in all the postal votes.
Gordon nicking Tory policies again…
236 My initial impression is that such wards voted overwhelmingly for Livingstone, but I’m still looking into it. Labour’s strategy of portraying Johnson as a racist bigot worked to the extent of ensuring some massive leads for Livingstone in wards with large ethnic minority populations, but it wasn’t enough.
239. Turnout high, was it?
Cameron is sounding almost giddy.
Brown really getting slayed by Cameron after the queens speech speech. Brown just becomes more laughable every day.
Flint on to say that the Government will buy housing stocks now that the prices are falling!
224 Sally. If you don’t think todays PMQ’s was an open goal for for Cammy then you must be a Watford FC supporter !!!
Wrong approach from Cammy. He should have been forensic over the 10p fiasco and not used the scattergun approach. Missed opportunity IMO to further demoralize Labour MPs.
Blimey. I go aroad for one week and what happens?
- Tories get a 26% lead in YouGov
- A 12% (or 4% after spiral of silence) lead in C&N
- Brown U-turns on the 10p tax thing by borrowing his way out
- The Government leak a report on the upcoming house price crash
- and … I win something! Yay!
And now I have to head off for a meeting. Back tomorrow.
242. what did Cameron say?
#229 [Sally] Ah, yes that captures it perfectly.
246 its a long speech and ongoing. its not pretty
PMQs
- I thought Cameron looked relaxed. He is the Prime Minister (bar the waiting) so it was important to question Brown about how he represents the UK at the UN.
- I thought Brown did ok, but protested too much. He thought there’d be an onslaught, but when there wasn’t Cameron’s relaxed tone made Brown look a bit of shouter. Why be so defensive, if you’re proud of your record?
246 hes just given him the “youre fired’ line
Cameron was simply magnificent
“you’re fired” - what a superstar
Brown enjoying his right to reply. Waiting for the house to scatter once the LD stands up.
GORDON BROWN BACKED FOR EARLY DEPARTURE
William Hill have cut their odds about Gordon Brown leaving office THIS year from 33/1 to 20/1; and from 5/2 to 15/8 to depart in 2009. He is 15/8 to cease to be PM in 2010.
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=9872
253. 15/8 in 2010 looks an amazing price !
New Quinnipiac Presidential and Primary Polls :
McCain 41% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 40% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 41% .. Obama 45%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1177
252. It used to be great to hear the collective moan whenever that pompous old fool Ashdown got up.
Clegg rather good as well
Andrew Neal being abit patronising to Flint. Not that she doesn’t deserve it.
244. I agree. “Let’s try another” is in danger of becoming a catchphrase for Cameron.
Cameron was just so, so good on the Queens Speech thing
“not daft - he meant draft”
Sometimes the guy is just so damn good he even surprises me
To anyone concerned about the education their children will get, don’t worry, according to the BBC Gordo has “promised a new education bill to ensure that “no school is under-performing” by 2011.” Sorted.
261. So they’ll all be as bad as each other? Way to go, Gordon!
261, saw most of Gordon’s bit, but none of any replies.
Apparently by announcing legislation all the evils of the world are set aside. Presumably he ended by declaring that he saw that it was good, and would be spending the next day resting.
261. Will all schools be getting above average results as well?
It wasn’t on 5 live , there may be some highlights after the 1pm news??
You’re fired LOL
249. PMQS doesn’t lend itself to forensic. Forensic requires answers to the questions put, a judge who will force where neccessry and keep the narrative on track and an attentive audience [not just the four of us!].
Howard used to do forensic.
[Not Watford, Leeds so take pity}
251/260. Test, you sound like a member of Grazia’s focus group…
For those who want to see PMQ’s the DC Gordo exchanges are on Coffee House..
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/704436/pmqs-video.thtml
230 - There are some real old fashioned right wing boors in the 2005 intake.
200m to buy unsold properties? what planet are these people on? I bet mr abrahams and other property developer donors will do very well out this new fund. its like watching Life on mars…..
233. Any breakdown on how PV’s went by borough- I noticed in my area, Merton broke almost even, but the Tories ran 2-1 ahead in Wandsworth.
270 - exactly, let’s all build houses nobody wants, then sell them to the government! Easy money
ON Skys blog, there is a poll as to who won PMQ’s
so far the result is
PMQs: Who performed the best?Gordon Brown 0% David Cameron 100% Nick Clegg 0% None of the above 0%
266 - We were crap on Monday, huh?
270. What’s the point other than to waste money?
£200m - even if they are very cheap properties - say average £100k, we’re talking about …..wait for it …… 2,000 properties!
What a complete waste of time. And a great way to throw away £200m.
When someone gets it, could they post a vid of Cameron’s reply to Gordon Brown trying to make the Queen’s Speech a pointless endeavour?
I really don’t see the point of a ‘draft’ Queen’s Speech.
269 Speaking personally, I’m very glad about that.
275, unless it’s a cynical ploy to give money to lenders *cough*Abrahams*cough* who are owed money by Labour and don’t intend to be fobbed off because they want it back.
If they’d spend £2.7bn on a by-election then £200m to stop themselves being bankrupted seems possible.
Has Cameron really told Brown; Your Fired? LMAO!
279. That will be the soundbite for news tonight.
Peter Lilley has just coined an excellent phrase to cover McBankrupt’s theft of Tory ideas: “Karaoke Conservatism”. Hope it catches on.
275 well it will be 4000 properties in a years time! Peter Lilley has just descibed Gordons stealing of Tory policies as ‘Karaoke Conservatism”. “He knows the words but doesnt understand what they mean….”
I agree, it’s more about mood, tone, appearances, soundbites. It gets a 10 second clip in the news that day and I guess your average viewer makes a subconscious judgement based on who looks like they’re in control, who’s winning etc. Plus it feeds the press, the radio, the blogs etc.
I like PMQs very much and think it’s a shame it’s on once a week now. MPs should all be able to justify their positions in debate, even if it is a bit of show, and there isn’t time to go in to detail.
276. I don’t expect it to continue after Labour lose power. It was one of Brown’s first acts as premier - attempting to be innovative and give more power to the House of listen and scrutinise (ha, ha, ha). All grandstanding, of course. Which, as we all know by now, is all Gordon Brown actually does.
Of course, this completely nixes the need for a Queen’s Speech proper if Gord is going to do it for us months in advance.
New Labour - screwing up our constitution since 1997…
280. Did he point his finger as he said it in true Donald Trump tradition?
281/282 - Please never use the word “karaoke” and the name “Peter Lilley” in the same sentence again. I still remember those awful conference performances in the early 1990s when Lilley did his Pop Idol thing. Shudder.
266 Sally. Leeds eh .. sorry, but then that’s a fifteen point deduction for that answer !!
281/282 tenpole/Baskerville. Peter Lilley and singing !!!!!!!!
Do Conservatives want to lose the next general election ?!?!?!
287, don’t anger her, she’ll set the Rhinos onto you:p
283. Agreed. It has more use than people say it has. It does feed a subconscious in the evening news bulletins.
And, of course, its ability to raise/dampen morale in the Parliamentary Parties is well known.
Brown is easily the worst performer at PMQs for a very long time. IDS comes close but he was just ineffective - not full of lies and bluster like poor old Gord. Gord also manages to be ineffective.
And before anyone shouts ‘Major,’ take a look at some of the old PMQs clips on Youtube from that era. No, he’s not great, but he’s surprisingly OK. Nowhere near as bad as Gordon.
288 - Jack W, you don’t want to get on his little list!
291 James B.
231. Also anyone under 65 with a taxable income between £40,836 and £41,434 will not get the full £120 tax reduction. Prior to yesterday, they were basic rate tax payers. They will now move up to become higher rate tax payers and for each £5 above £40,835 they then lose £1 off the £120 until it all disappears. I winder whether careless talk will still cost lives.
264. Remember hearing Jack Dash, the commie docker’s leader in the 60’s, saying he would not rest until all the low paid got at least the average wage!!
290 - And Major is clearly the indirect inspiration for Churchill insurance ‘Oh, Yes’.
275. One can only assume Labour think that £200 million sounds like a lot of money to many voters, and that these poor ignorant souls will be impressed by such a ‘big number’. Yet again, the cynical and patronising attitudes of ‘the people’s party’ revealed…
277. Some of them are a bit *too* ideological though Sean, don’t you think?
I seriously worry about some mega-problems durıng the next Conservatıve government. I forsee a disaster. I think Cameron is goıng to have some very rebellious backbenchers to deal with. I also think in some respects, aspects of Cornerstone are more worrying than the Monday Club. We’ve imported some of the worse bits of the Republican Party onto some of our backbenches.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m as solidly Thatcherite as the next man, but I’ve also moved on from the 1980s..
Many of our “new” intake haven’t.
293. so only a relatively small further tax cut for the well-off, then
296. Do you have any opinion about the make up of the likely 2010 intake?
296. I personally think rebellious backbenchers are a good thing. However wacky and inconsistent they are personally. They not only make politics more interesting, but also more democratic and accountable.
As evidenced by Frank “very popular with Con supporters on here approximately every other day” Field
296. Compare the % of headbangers in 2010 to 1997 - will drop like a stone. By 2014 they will have been cleansed
Benidict Brogan talls us about Brown “4 Point Plan” to recovery;
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
But reading between the lines, his position still sounds extremely dodgy!
I hope the tories call a vote of o confidence inthe government / PM if Labour loe C & N. That would really rub Labour’s nose in it! Voting for a loser!
301 Yes I read that.Ben Brogan is excellent, note he rarely blogs immediately after an event. It’s a considered opinion that comes hours later, no doubt after feeling the pulse in Westminster and outside.
297. No, just another lie on top of Darling’s yesterttday.
298. On balance, if the Tories win a majority - c. 120 extra seats - the new intake is likely to be:
Pro - tax cuts, nuclear power, zero-tolerance policing, bonfire of regulations, English Votes on English Matters, Obama (prior to election), Education vouchers, only dealing with the NHS while holding a 40 foot bargepole, transferring social budgets to charities, small animals, having Cameron’s children.
Anti - abortion, EU, Barnett formula, Obama (after election).
299: ‘ Frank “very popular with Con supporters on here approximately every other day” Field’
People like him when he stands up for the interests of the poor, and don’t when he surrenders faster than the French Army.
306. Brown has obviously had him heavily wh*pped in the parliamentry sense! Maybe he has something on him?
308. I had to put a star in because it got caght in hespam trap!
Ben Brogan is Nick Robinson for grown ups.
300 - Really? Look at the average age of Cornerstoners - 55 years which is only fractionally above the average for all Tory MPs (51). Of the 35 members, seven are under 40 and a further ten under 50. All of them would presumably hope to be there in 2014 plus many of those aged 50-60 at present.
308. More likely to be the other way round, isn’t it?
306. he had more courage than most MPs ever do in standing up for a principle against his party and getting pretty much exactly what he wanted.
Some posters on here were pretty comical in their flip-flopping over whether he is the new Messiah or in fact an unprincipled scumbag.
I’m not convinced that Caroline Flint’s ‘flash’ was completely inadvertant.
Many commentators have been warning of a 20%-30% drop in house prices. This document managed to move the discussion to a 5%-10% drop.
Much of it draws attention to the action currently being taken by the government and even underlines the words “on people’s side”.
It’s not often that the government’s message gets such a wide coverage.
313: Field got a one off pre by election bribe rather than a proper solution, and gave up. That’s ‘courage’ Brown style.
314. I thought that at the time, although I believe that 5-10% is a fairly broad consensus figure.
314 - Oh good grief.
298. Sean Fear is the expert here.
But ‘Cornerstone’ alone will be enough to wıpe out virtually any Tory majority - assuming it acts as a whole. Which is a big assumption.
Cornerstone has 35 MPs at present, this would probably increase to around 45-50 MPs ın the wake of a Tory victory. That could jeopardise any Con Majority up to 80-90.
A much wider group of Tory MPs (maybe up to 100-120 ın total??) *might* sympathise wıth some of the aims of Cornerstone, but would generally follow the leadership. I’m fairly relaxed about most of them. And, indeed, often agree with them.
The Europhile “Wets” are almost extinct and exist ın a dwindling TRG (Tory Reform Group) and ‘Conservative Mainstream’ group and probably number no more than 10 MPs now.
The majority 200+ MPs wıll be A-listers/long-serving MPs/careerists/government mınısters none of whom will rock the boat.
So, in summary, around 50-60 Tory MPs could, practically, be “a problem” wıth *theoretically* a larger group of up to 100 MPs being an issue ın the most extreme circumstances - on, say, Cameron trying to abolish the Monarchy or redesign the Union Jack!! (I only half-joke) However, even I’d be with them in that case!
Thıs is why I’ve saıd Cameron needs a majorıty of 40+ to be confıdent of carryıng through all of hıs programme. He probably needs about that to win a free-vote on re-legalising fox-hunting too - but if it was legalised again I expect it would be much more tightly regulated than before.
Anyway, a majority of 40 MPs probably allows rebellions of around 25 MPs (the radicals) wıthout throwing hım off track.
It is the mininum he should aim for.
311. 35/180 is much less of a % than 35/320
315. what “solution” do you think he should have held out for on this highly sensitive issue?
312. Why would you go on telly and say that Brown eeded to go and then say in the comons to Brown smiling that he had gone to far etc. Surely Ed Balls sould apologise to Fild now?
It smacks to me of a whipping operation by the fact that Brown new it wascoming hence his *winning a Political point smile* - this s different to the awful shit eting grin ak America hs talent!
When will Brwn learn not to betray is petty political bollocks! The public hate seeing hm show his appiite for petty political bollocks! 
It was interesting Brown had the *winning a Political point smile* when he announced the 10p tax change in 2007 as C of E. Brown also ad this smil when unvailing the lurch to the left by darling yesterday.
313. ‘Some posters on here were pretty comical in their flip-flopping over whether he is the new Messiah or in fact an unprincipled scumbag’
No uncertainty about which of those categories Brown falls into, though.
314. A classic spoof post, possibly one of the best ever
321.I do appologise for the typo’s - my typing is crap!
i just get the feeling that the government thinks it is doing a pretty good job of putting its troubles behind it and the next couple of weeks will see unprecedented spinning, which will be lapped up and promoted by the beeb, and other media. just a hunch. hope i’m wrong.
320. One that did not leave 1,100,000 people worse off!!!
317
I wasn’t going to be so charitable, but I think your three words are accurate and to the point.
To have to spin that as a positive is truly pathetic.
318 I think he’d get the Fox hunting bill far easier than that. Throw in the DUP andat least half of however many Lib Dem MPs there are and it would need an almighty push against from within his own Party to prevent repeal.
323 Good spot the other day Martin. I fancy Ukraine too in the Eurovision, and have gone in at 9.6 on Betfair. I just hope she’s got a good outfit lined up! It’s all about the outfit.
320: One that left nobody worse off.
317, 322, 326.
It’s lodged the 5-10% figure in the public conciousness.
I think most people could live with that sort of correction.
It may even encourage buyers to get in at the perceived ‘bottom’ of the market sooner than they otherwise would have.
318. And don’t forget the SNP will not vote on English matters - including fox hunting - so weakening any rebellions.
330 - Your worse than a certain Iraqi. How is life in the bunker?
Fraser Nelson’s take on PMW’s on the Queens Speech. I was particularly taken with the last paragraph….
P.S. Cameron’s response to Brown’s Not The Queen’s Speech statement was brilliant – in a few short sentences he communicated far better than Brown, who rattled through a laundry list of legislation. Cameron went through each policy, and gave the date the Tories first proposed it. “He can’t say we don’t have any substance when he’s taken it all and put it in his Queen’s Speech.”
DC has said fox hunting will be a free vote.
oopps forgot the link..
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/704606/brown-survives-pmqs.thtml#comments
318 I don’t see why Cornerstone would be likely to be serially rebellious - certainly not in a first term at any rate - unless, say, Cameron decides we’ve got to join the Euro, or something like that.
My guess is that there’d be the sort of division of labour that I alluded to earlier in the thread, with Cameron doing the green/liberal things, and Davis doing the right wing things, to keep both groups of voters happy.
318. I might add; I agree with low-taxes, strong families and communities, a much-looser relationship with the EU, a smaller-state and fundamental health/education reform.
What I don’t like about Cornerstone is their rigid adherance to dogma, their worrying imported US Republican-style socıal conservatism, their determination to re-live and re-fight the battles of the 1980s and failure to realise the world has moved on and we must move with it.
21st century = different challenges/different priorities/different style needed.
John Redwood - a Cornerstone member I believe? - who “gets it” ın thıs respect and ıs an intelligent, radical Tory I *could* support.
Edward Leigh? Nadine Dorries? Peter Bone? David Amess?
I sometimes wonder about their sanity.
331 Given they hold seats like Perth and Stirling even if they did vote on English matters they’d be highly unlikely to vote against Hunting.
LDs abandon Crewe ?
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2008/05/libdems-abandon.html
Disappointing news on Ted Strickland’s VP aspirations:
http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/05/14/copy/gov_VP.ART_ART_05-14-08_A6_4OA6OFN.html?adsec=politics&sid=101
Perhaps he is only saying no at the moment because Hillary has told him she wants it?
Interesting that the most enthusiastic editorial today apart from the Mirror is in the Mail - praising not just Gordon but Darling as well.
Tories like ralph and Martin Day on Frank Field: they’re foul-weather friends, only happy when he’s critical. But that negates the point they make when they do like him - “Good to see an MP who won’t follow anyone’s agenda and speaks for himself.” It’s just hypocritical only to approve of that when he agrees with you.
327. How many from “other” parties (incl. Lib-Dems) voted against Labours fox-hunting bill on 2nd/3rd readings?
336. They will only be quiet until Cameron falls in the polls, or does something that reforms one of their pet projects. Then they will spit blood.
Look at Summer 2007. Also, I believe, there are some worrying stats from ‘rebellions’ website and ‘they work for you’ which show many Cornerstone members to be rather rebellious on anything other than a 3-line whip.
Depends on, as you say, Davis/Fox staying on board and placating them.
But I think the situation is much more fragile than it seems and will unravel once the going gets tough.
337. Edward leigh is chairman of the Public Accounts Committee. Are you suggesting the members of that committee are themselves insne in electing someone whose sanity you question?
Kos reports that Obama has bagged another 2.5 SD’s :
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/14/6473/15490/291/515322
338. To be honest, I think Cameron will be reluctant to even bring the repeal legislation before Parliament.
I’ve heard he hates the Ban - but it’ll be a shıt-storm he doesn’t need.
341. Why is that interesting? We all know Dacre is up Brown’s posterior.
345. Sorry, rubbish.
341 - Not interesting and not surprising really when the editor is ‘Lord’ Paul Dacre. The Mail is the most schizophrenic paper about at the moment, pages and pages of Brown bashing overlaid with an editorial Dacre special.
343. No.
341- “Interesting that the most enthusiastic editorial today apart from the Mirror is in the Mail - praising not just Gordon but Darling as well.”
Wow, I wonder why that might be.
347. Why is it rubbish?
339 Tory spin more like.
I just had another (LD) email asking me to go and help in Crewe.
And they certainly seem busy:
http://www.elizabethshenton.com/category/news/
Yes, what is so funny about Dacres lavish praising of Brown in the Mail is that come the election, there is no way in hell the Mail is going to not support Cameron.
Unfortunatly Brown seems to think that he can win the next election by doing whatever Dacre tells him to do, and so win “Middle England”.
Remember “Browns Conservatives”?
341. Nearly every paper was scathing about the PM and chancellor, including the suns ‘the bribe minister’. Two good editorials won’t make up for that, or the scathing news reports, or Paxmand and Jon Snow pulling Darling apart in their interviews of him.
351. Because a) it’s an absolutely touchstone issue for many thousands of supporters at the grass roots level, a large number of whom have been attracted to the party in recent years in large measure because of the struggle against Labour’s ban.
b) with any kind of decent majority a repeal will pass easily
c) the ‘ban’ is already discredited in the minds of the public because it has had such a limited practical effect and
d) because the only ’sh1tstorm’ will come from far-left nutters and hunt sabs - and who gives a t*ss what they think?
351 I think that’s going to be one favour Cameron will have to repay, given the support given to the Conservatives by the Countryside Alliance.
341 - The Mail seems to have gone bonkers for Brown. It’s just bizarre.
The wets will be back. Oh yes we will
344 - How do you get half a Super Delegate has one been cleaved in half?
355- The tories could always say they are “Saving the Police wasting time on foxes and free them up to deal with real crime”.
341: Actually Nick I find someone like Field who stands up and makes a lot of noise then bottles at the earliest opportunity a lot worse than someone who stays quiet like your good self.
Your party leader increased the taxes of millions of poor people so he could give the middle class a tax cut so they would vote for him in an election he planned to call that autumn.
359. Indeed.
277. You are indeed, speaking for yourself.
Kind of agree on the Catholic thing. I don’t mind abit of individual ‘principle’ as long as it is doesn’t disadavantage anyone significantly. I think they came to a more sensible compromise in Scotland.
314. For it not to be inadvertent assumes a level of subtlety and intelligence that this government have previously kept very well concealed.
358 The delegates from Democrats abroad only get half a vote each.
358 James. Democrats Abroad delegation is spilt into half delegates.
359 - Only if they thought a transparent lie was the way forward. It would crumble in the time it would take to say “FOI request”. The Police spend no or negligible time enforcing the ban.
364/365 - Ah, that makes sense.
DCs reply for those that missed it
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2008/05/david-camerons.html
355- may as well repeal all the other anti libertarian legislation in that case- cock fighting, dog fighting, bear baiting.
Bloody Europe as well stopping us factory farm chickens.
We humans should be allowed to exploit animals in which ever way we can, especially while they are still around.
Men should also be allowed to soundly beat their wives and children. All this nanny state nonsense espoused by all those lefty nutters!
What is astonishing is that The Express has picked up readers despite it being universally disparaged and The Mail has been loosing them. A direct transfer as a result of Brown is, I suspect is at the root of it.
Dacre did the same over IHT thing and we know what happened there.
He wouldn’t be able to keep half his staff if he didn’t let them do their own thing.
369. As I said up the thread -
‘because the only ’sh1tstorm’ will come from far-left nutters and hunt sabs - and who gives a t*ss what they think?’
- and right on cue, one such turns up.
368 briliant
““This morning we read about a new plan from this great man of substance – and it’s to appear on a new version of The Apprentice. The Communities Secretary said this is The Apprentice meets Maria, meets Strictly Come Dancing. I’ve got a better idea for the Prime Minister. Why not take part in a reality show that involves the whole of the country?
It’s called a General Election.
“Wouldn’t it give everyone the chance to stand up in front of the Prime Minister and say “You’re fired”?
355. Harry - you clearly feel strongly about it.
I merely said that Cameron would be *reluctant* to bring it forward. This is what I’ve heard from a couple of my contacts at CCHQ who work with him.
Why?
Because he fears it will damage the image of a reformed Conservative party. Because it could dominate the airwaves and media to his detriment for months. Because of lack of parliamentary time. Because, regrettably, the existing legislation has majority popular support. Because it could jeopardise his chances of a 2nd term if it turns sour - which it well might.
It won’t be rosy. If a repeal is on the cards, it will be ardent Animal Rights activists vs. Countryside Alliance on the streets of London. And I’m hard-pressed to think of previous successful repeals of bans of this nature.
I think Cameron will delay and obfuscate. Just as on withdrawal from the EPP.
Whatever happens.. It won’t be a return to the pre-2004 situation.
There would be a danger Labour would simply ban it again, the next time they’re in government and Cameron will want to be pragmatic.
“Men should also be allowed to soundly beat their wives and children”
That’s hardly controversial, though?
On Cornerstone/Tory rebels/etc, it’s worth reading Phil Cowley’s briefing paper on Tory rebellions under Cameron - it’s from January this year, so a bit out of date now:
http://www.revolts.co.uk/Daves%20Dissidents%2005-07.pdf
Top line: 84 Conservative MPs have voted against their party whip so far since 2005 - a higher proportion than Labour.
330: But it’s already down over 5% from the peak in August 2007
Even Cameron has fallen for it - he idiotically said a fall of “up to 10%” at PMQs when Flint’s briefing note said in fact “5-10% fall AT BEST”, (my capitals) i.e. the government admit amongst themselves it may be more.
Which is fair enough, as it will clearly be FAR more than that, desperate, futile “buying up of stock” or not.
366
Because they know it is a waste of time.
In which case it could be repealed as part of the bonfire of unnecessary legislation.
Either way it will go pretty quickly.
Sean - I think the problem with the Cornerstone group and the general anti EU balance of the Conservative party will come when Cameron realises that his promises on ‘renegotiation’ and taking powers back from the EU are meaningless as that cannot be done. At that point Cameron will find he is starting to have to field real pressure for a complete change in the relationship between the UK and the EU with a party which - on the whole - would have no great problem with complete withdrawal.
373 I can’t see him getting out of that one. Ultimately, if it’s a choice between offending animal rights people, and offending the Countryside Alliance, it’s not much of a choice for most Conservative MPs.
373: Cameron can do a Labour on it, set up a big inquiry packed with people who will give you the result you want then act on their recomendations.
Sean Fear/Andrea, Are you able to tell from the London results whether the Tories did well enough in the required places to ensure victories in marginal Labour seats at a General election; or did they just pile up votes in already safe outer Borough seats?
342. I seem to recall Vino (where is he, by the way?) ridiculing the Lib Dems for splitting 22 each way on the fox hunting vote.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 46% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 43% .. Obama 50%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
231 Mirthios, I heard that too. Wondered at the time whether Brown might end having to apologise for that howler.
“At that point Cameron will find he is starting to have to field real pressure for a complete change in the relationship between the UK and the EU with a party which - on the whole - would have no great problem with complete withdrawal.”
Yes, I can see that.
373. None of that is in the least convincing. Especially the claim that ‘ the existing legislation has majority popular support’
What is that based on? The existing law is widely seen as a joke, a dead letter. Apart from a tiny band of nutters, no-one would care if it was repealed - and none of them are going to vote Tory anyway.
And as for the idea it would dominate the airwaves and the media ‘to his detriment’…this seems to assume we will get a rerun of the battles over the current legislation. How absurd. Hundreds of thousands protested against the ban, but the number protesting for was miniscule. There were no clashes. The media was mostly supportive of the opponents of the ban.
Sorry mate you don’t have a clue on this.
380 Yes. The ward results are up. I’ve not been through them all (it’ll take weeks), but it looks to me as though there are plenty of London marginals which the Conservatives “won” on May 1st (eg Dagenham & Rainham, Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green, Hampstead & Kilburn). I think if you want to make a comparison at Parliamentary seat level, it’s best to look at the Constituency results, rather than the List, or the Mayoralty.
377. The chance is always there at the next treaty whenever it is. A new treaty *cannot* go ahead without the approval of Parliament. If Blair/Brown were so inclince, they could have at the time of the constitution / treaty negotiated mechanisms for greater autonomy. Even the multi speed integration model, with the promise that the UK wouldnt block future integration efforts, if the UK (along with any other nations) wished to losen their ties from such a model.
The idea that EU integration is a one way process is nonesense.
380 - I had a quick look by no means exhaustive but Barking could be a big problem for Labour (and everyone else too) as they were not that far in front of the BNP from what I could tell.
385 - You’re right that some people who support the ban are nutters. Ann Widecombe for starters.
373. agree it will be very easy to portray repeal as being for the benefit of a minority - that will be fertile ground for the ‘infantile’ toff campaign. and the animal rights lobby can be a formidable campaigning force when they put their minds to something (however spurious their logic).
375 Conservatives have got rid of their most rebellious MP - Bob Spink - in the list so some progress.
389. You have to distinguish between those who support the ban or dont, and those who are, shall we say obsessed by it. Widdecombe was not obsessed by it.
384 Sean , out of interest , were the 2004 results of much use in forecasting the 2005 GE results ?
380. Another one is Enfield North, where the Tories led by nearly 7,000, even without taking postal votes into account.
My gut feeling is that if this result were to replicated at Parliamentary level you’d end up with something like Conservative 40, Labour 29, Lib Dem 4.
387
You seem to have missed the point of the Lisbon Treaty/Constitution.
One of the most insidious things about it is that it sets in place a new procedure for changes to the structyre of the EU which mean that there will no longer be any need for treaties. As such there will not be another treaty for Parliament to debate or to be put to a referendum.
386 - Thank you. That is much appreciated.
392 - No Harry was saying that only a tiny bunch of nutters cared if it was repealed. I’m sure you’re right that Ann isn’t obsessed by it but she would probably care given she took quite a vocal stance on the issue.
374.
369
Obviously Fox hunting is cruel.
Without man’s horrid interference, foxes would live peaceful lives and die and quietly in their in their beds.
Apart from when they get shot that is and sometimes are only injured dying slowly. Or when they are ill and die slowly from desease. Or when they get run over. Or attacked by another animal.
These farmers and country types are so naturally cruel. They don’t understand animals they way we do.
Foxes enter a chicken coup and take a bite out of every animal leaving it to die a terrible death because they don’t understand! Education, education, education! We need legislation now. SATS for foxes perhaps.
People who buy battery chickens and eggs in plasitic are exactly the people who should be the final arbiters of what is and isn’t acceptable on a farm and in the country. They have more votes.
Signed a townie
[aren't foxes cute!...if they were bald and looked like rats and were annoying and smelly near me, would I be writing this I wonder.... Mind you, if one ate my cat I would shoot the bastard.]
385. I’m sure the following article is not exhaustive, but it does provide some evidence (references to yougov and mori polls) that, at least at the time, a majority or at least a plurality of the public supported the ban. What is your counter-claim based on?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunting_Act_2004
393 I can only yes and no. They pointed to a big swings to the Conservatives in the 8 London seats the Conservatives gained. But they also pointed to far bigger swings in Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green, Brent North, and Enfield North than turned out to be the case. In the case of the first two, one can probably put the strong Conservative showing down to antipathy to Ken Livingstone among some Jewish Labour voters, but not the other two.
The big vote for UKIP all over London also distorted the picture.
400 A majority of people hold entirely different views to what is held by the political parties, on a wide range of issues.
If a poll was put to the majority:
EU: in or out = it would be incredibly close, and if the option to revert back to a free trade agreement as agreed by the original referendum, is suspect 80% plus.
Death penalty for not just murder, but offences against children would also get over whelming support.
401. Sean - how do the numbers for the SW London Lib Dem-held seats stack up, pls?
287 No that WAS an open goal!
Lol. Cambridge was a hotbed of anti hunting activity - however there are loads of urban foxes - matched with endless posters constantly being put up all over the ‘burbs “Lost - Cute Cat - answers to the name of Arafat/Che/Pilger/Greenham etc “
403 I haven’t checked. At Mayoral level, though, Sutton, Richmond and Kingston produced big leads for Johnson (Livingstone led in the latter two in 2004). But the Lib Dem vote won’t be squeezed to the same extent at a general election.
Lots south of the river.
As far as I can tell, Battersea, (the new) Croydon Central, Sutton and Cheam, Carshalton and Wallington would all be Tory gains based on the Assembly voting, while Tooting and Richmond Park would be too close to call.
O/T - The by-election planning wasn’t very good, for May 22nd is the Saints day of St Rita of Cascia, who is patron Saint of lost causes and impossible situations. Oops.
402 - Not sure you are right about the Death penalty. This yougov poll shows support at 49-43, not exactly overwhelming.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1506834/Less-than-50pc-back-death-penalty.html
402 so what’s your point?
Nick Palmer - it’s not because Frank’s rebellious that Tories like him. It’s because he advocates startlingly Tory approaches to welfare reform - approaches that Tories would have loved to have tried, only they didn’t think they’d get away with it. Approaches which will see the lot of the poorest actually improved, rather than just alleviated.
And also because he was one of the Labour MPs calling for the government to stick with its referendum pledge. That helped too.
Of course, it never hurts his image in blue eyes that he’s made life slightly uncomfortable for Gordon of late. But I don’t think that’s the main reason.
BTW - I’m no longer a constituent. Which means I no longer have to face the difficult question of whether to support someone I believe to be a good MP but whom I tend to disagree with and who’s adding to the other side’s majority. The net result is probably a notional increase of 1 in your majority.
(Not sure if I’ll be there for the next election but I’m now in Manchester Withington instead, where I have no idea at all yet what to do with my vote).
341. Nick, must have touched a raw nerve their!
It just looks suspicious to me that Frank Field says one thing on Sunday and another on tuesday about Brown. I know Gordon tends to flip it - tee flop but members of the PLP don’t have to follow suite!
You only see Gordon from behind or on the back benchers, so you don’t see the Brown ” I have scored a political point smile!” 
On the subject of seating arrangements i must tell you nick that when you sit behind the minister, you need to remember your crotch is on camara! I saw you hanging around behind malcolm wicks the other day!
Good job the sun newspaper or guido did not see that - that’s all can say - An involentry itch!
Although 99% of sun readers support it …
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/justice/article841077.ece
408.”O/T - The by-election planning wasn’t very good, for May 22nd is the Saints day of St Rita of Cascia, who is patron Saint of lost causes and impossible situations. Oops.”
Priceless!
385. Or.. Maybe I just dısagree wıth your emotıonally charged vıew?
It does you no credıt to claım others “havent a clue” when they dısagree wıth your bıas vıews. I know more about what goes on ın CCHQ than you do buddy.
Look up opınıon polls on Fox-huntıng. Sadly (because I dıdn’t agree wıth bannıng ıt eıther as ıt happens) they all showed at least a pluralıty, usually a majorıty, ın favour of bannıng ıt. Theres only one (or two?) Countrysıde Allıance polls whıch show anythıng dıfferent and that was on a carefully worded questıon.
Your argument on protests answers ıts own questıon. The fox-huntıng ban dıdnt get major protests ın *support* of ıt because ıts proponents were gettıng exactly what they wanted.
A repeal would generate a lot of heat - and I suspect, when your head has cooled down, you wıll see that. It could also turn-off some soft-Tory voters ıf not handled delıcately.
I would lıke to see the fox-huntıng ban repealed and the legıslatıon “made safe” agaınst future bans by ıncreasıng provısıons for anımal welfare and protectıon of wıldlıfe, but I want to waıt untıl the tıme ıs rıght. It’s not a huge prıorıty for me. A second Tory term ıf needs be. EU reform ıs much, MUCH more ımportant.
I certaınly dont want a lot of shrıll nutters forcıng the ıssue and makıng ıt domınate the fırst 2 years of a Tory admınıstratıon and, consequently, blowıng our chances.
“One senior cabinet minister’s first reaction to the 24% share in the May 1 polls was to say, “It can get worse.” He conjures the figure 16% as a possible rock-bottom for Labour’s standing.” Jonathan Freedland Guardian.
http://tinyurl.com/5rsbs5
If it hits 19% I think Brown’s a goner.
415 - As a Labour supporter I’d love a Cameron government to repeal the ban. I support it but it isn’t a major priority. It would be difficult to get through and would cause a lot of unnecessary aggravation. It would also undercut the warm, fuzzy, cuddly Tory image that Cameron is trying to present.
Sadly Cameron isn’t stupid, and like Blair will see the issue as more trouble than it is worth. But keep the pressure up Harry, you shouldn’t let the Tories take your vote for granted!
337. It’s not the social conservatism that’s the worst part of it: it’s the religious conservatism. Some seem to think the Conservative party should be only for Christian fundamentalists.
This is dreadful economic news:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7400074.stm
By the way, i attended an interesting meeting this morning with a mixture of Mortgage Advisers, Financial Advisers and Economists. I contributed by saying “the economy is in a real mess - it is going to take a year or two to sort out”. The mortgage advisers then said upto 5 years supported by economists. This was in a leading high street banking group.
417. If you support Fox hunting would you support a ban on halal slaughter?
Personally i would ban both.
415. Adopting a patronising tone doesn’t add any strength to your flimsy reasoning I’m afraid.
Michael Brown: It’s far worse for Brown than it was for Major. Well worth a read.
415. I don’t really understand why Fox-hunters get so angry about this. They had hunts near me and it mostly involves dressing up in old-fashioned red jackets while they ride a horse chasing all the other people until they find out one of the dogs has killed the fox. Can’t they do that with an artificial scent trail, or is all the enjoyment involved in knowing that a fox has been killed?
388 If one allocates 11/17 of each party’s postal votes to Barking then you get a result (using the GLA constituency figures) of Labour 35.7%, BNP 27.2%, Conservative 15.4%, Lib Dem 5.5%. The BNP led in 5 wards, Labour in 6. The BNP led on the Becontree estate, but Labour had a bigger lead in Barking town centre.
420. Whilst i am on the preferencial treatment of certain groups that support Labour (But not since Iraq!).
I saw a lady learning to drive with a berka on the other day.
If i drove around with a bag on my head with a small slit to see out of do you think i would pass my test? (No jokes about my looks!)
419 and after that erudite contribution to the meeting did you receive a job offer ?
381 - Alan J - Still here - nothing much to add politically speaking especially as a tribal Labour voter - life on a political aspect is just so disapointing at present - Labour deserve at this moment in time all the kickings they get - off to the States[California] for a 5 week break in a few days time so at least something to look forward to!!
423. Would you support a ban on halal meat?
428. Yes.
415/421 - Far be it for me to intrude on private grief, but there is nothing “flimsy” about Casino’s logic.
It would be awful PR for Cameron to let the Conservatives be seen as obsessing on an issue primarily of interest to an upper class minority (probably an unfair characterisation but that would inevitably be how it would come across). It would be big news and take on a prominance far out of proportion to the importance of the issue.
Cameron would not do it voluntarily, though it would amuse me were his arm twisted by backbenchers.
426. Yes, a nice young lady said she liked muscler men and we went into the local mcdonalds toilets!
430. Why not a free vote - or support for a members bill - MPs make up their own mind - no pressure either way.
432. Even a free vote early on that revoked the ban would give the impression that Cameron is in the minority of modernisers in the party.
432 I imagine that’s how it would be done.
Man forced to starve to death due to the governments tax policy and rocketing food prices:
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/itn/20080514/img/pwl-1210752685-world-a69589-a9bb2c1cba150.html
424 - But with another two years to go, things could be even more dicey for Labour there.
430. You lefties are still banging on about this ‘toff’ nonsense, thinking it has some resonance, aren’t you? You really are hopelessly out of touch.
432 - Why not a refendum?
432 - Nope. Firstly, you would need to give Government time to it. Secondly, the front bench would need to take a line (or be seen as split). You must see that it would occupy the front pages for weeks and rightly or wrongly people would say at best that the Government was being sidetracked with trivialities and at worst that its first move was to do something nice for the landowning classes.
Wasn’t the banning of fox hunting originally on a free vote anyway? People just don’t distinguish these things - they would see their elected members banging on about a fringe issue and draw conclusions.
I don’t think foxhunting will be difficult to get through at all. It’ll likely be a one-line bill of repeal and a completely free vote. The Tory majority will vote for it, all done. Civil liberties issue, no problems whatsoever.
427 Mmmm..tribal Labour voters can afford 5 week breaks in California. A welcome reminder of the massive increase in incomes over the past 11 years….
I thought the fox hunting ban was ludicrous largely because so much time and effort was spent on such a trivial matter. It made those in favour of the ban look like ridiculous grudge-bearing class-warriors. I’d like to see it repealed - not because I like hunting; I find it at best absurd - but because it’s a stupid, unenforceable law - and an unenforceable law has no place on the statute books (cluttering things up, making things look untidy).
But by my earlier logic, though I’d like to see it repealed, I wouldn’t want a fight over it. It would be just as egregious a waste of time and effort as that required to bring it in, and would make the repealers look like just as ridiculous a gang of class-warriors. (And I know that’s not what they are - just as most of the pro-ban side aren’t - but that’s what they’d look like.)
433 On this issue, Cameron is in tune with most of his MPs.
Granted, the law is a dead letter, but I imagine most hunters think it could be enforced at some point in the future.
437. Most Labour supporters (All be it a deminished band) ARE STILL STUCK IN 1997 - I bet some of them watch their collecters additions of the BBC video election 1997!
I cannot wait to see the BBC issue a DVD for election 2010 - although i think they will be somewhat hesitant in releasing that one!
Cameron’s on the record as supporting the repeal of the hunting act, but it will be a free vote. I think most Tories are naturally pro the right to hunt. Personally I’d love to see action taken on battery chicken conditions but that’s another matter.
Adam Boulton not singing the PM’s praises after the pre Queen’s Speech. Grinds on… nothing new…Cameron’s best recent preformance…
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1316055,00.html
430 - Oh come now Harry. It isn’t about left-wingers being obsessive. Casino Royale is rock solid Tory but has the good sense to see it wouldn’t play well.
You are trying as a party to win over people who voted for Blair in 1997 - quite right too from your perspective. It is all “new, modern party in touch with how you live your life now” stuff and it just defies all logic that you would want to be associated with this sort of business.
Draft Queen’s speech very dull. Another white paper on Lords reform! Ye Gods…if they want constitutional reform, just get on with it.
Communications data bill sounds sinister and authoritarian.
Brown is doomed
445. I believe there are animals far more sentient than chickens who have just as bad conditions.
Here’s what Cameron said in February of this year
http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/expats/changing-wales/2008/02/19/cameron-to-allow-free-vote-on-ending-idiotic-hunting-law-91466-20492071/
“A TORY Government would give MPs a free vote on reversing the hunting ban, David Cameron said last night.
The current law had been made to look “idiotic” due to the number of people breaking it, he suggested.
In an exclusive interview with the Western Mail, three years to the day since the ban become law, Mr Cameron said, “We have a very clear position on this, there will be a free vote, and if there is a vote to repeal the hunting ban there will be a government Bill in government time.
“It’s quite clear it isn’t working, there are more people hunting than ever before. The law is being made to look an idiot, and that isn’t a good situation to be in.””
445. I think that people should be band from Driving in Berka’s or learning to drive in one.
If someone went for a driving test with a bag over their head they would not pass the test.
441 - very good! long may it continue!
444 - But that’s the point, Martin! The Conservative party aren’t interested in what people like you and Harry want. You will vote for them anyway. They want people who voted enthusiastically for Blair in 1997. Learn to love these people - they are your ticket out of Opposition.
Killing animals for fun is immoral.
If fox hunting involved getting into protective rubber wear rather than being tarted up in red jackets, nobody would do it.
Even if a completely kind method of fox control was discovered, the hunters would still want to hunt
It is therefore a pastime and a cruel one at that.
When chosen Gordon should have planned on a defeat in a 2010 election and just get some solid legislation on the books, regardless of how it anoyed the tory ranters. In my top 5 would be stronger legislation on hunting with dogs.
415. Adopting a patronising tone doesn’t add any strength to your flimsy reasoning I’m afraid.
by Harry May 14th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Perhaps you shouldn’t do it then.
450 Lots of people break the law on Cannabis use, I suspect more than hunt. I wonder if Cameron going to give a free vote on that?
453.
On a serious point - should berka’s / Burka’s not be banned for people driving cars?
454. Would you ban ant powder then ?
What about anti-bacterial sprays - those poor microbes ?
454 No sane politician plans on defeat. Ever.
454. A ban on halal meat?
454 - “If fox hunting involved getting into protective rubber wear rather than being tarted up in red jackets, nobody would do it.”
Don’t know. You might persuade me
Casino is surely right.
Repealing the hunting ban needs to be carefully handled - it could totally screw up the Cuddly Conservative image, it will involve tons of valuable Commons time, it will provoke Tory rebellions from bunnyhugging righties, and it will need a large majority to be guaranteed passage.
Not worth the candle in the first term. Cammo will do what Blair did with his proposed foxhunting ban - hum and haw and delay (but make favourable noises) and then go for it in a 2nd or 3rd term (if he gets one).
I disagree Cammo will have to back down on his EU ideas though. A quick look at any EU website will show major new proposals coming down the line - EU army, EU taxes, EU harmonised laws, new EU budget - each of these needs UK agreement.
It is at this point Cammo makes his arrangement - he agrees to let the others continue, in return for UK semi-detachment from the whole process. The EU knows this is coming, its inevitable. They simply want to go much further towards Federalism than we do. The yawning gap can no longer be filled with fudge.
In reply to a much earlier question: yes I have visited the Byzantine cisterns. Incredible!
Hillary nabs a SD - Vicky Harwell of Tennessee :
http://thepage.time.com/clinton-release-on-superdelegate/
458. In that case Gordon Brown should be banned as my dog howls whenever he is on the telly!
450 You may have thought he would have trotted out his tough on crime crack down on the criminals breaking the law spiel .
453. Yes yes, keep deluding yourself. The party which is haemmoraghing middle class support and will continue to do so is the Lib Dems. The idea they will run back into your arms or those of your Labour friends because of a one-line bill repealing a ludicrous, laughing-stock piece of legislation is risible.
Socrates - haven’t got much time to answer your questions about the Senate from yesterday in much detail. But here is an overview:
Democrats are defending 12 seats. All are safe except Louisiana but recent polls have given her the lead and Landrieu has more money. However Kennedy outraised her in Q1. The Republicans failed to find any credible candidates in SD, IA, MT, AR or WV.
The Democrat pick-up opportunities:
Dems ahead by double digits:
Virginia - Warner has a double-digit lead and big money advantage.
Dems ahead by high single digits:
New Mexico - Damaging GOP primary
New Hampshire - Popular former Governer running for the Dems
Dems marginally ahead:
Colorado - Open seat, Republican linked to Abramoff, Democrat has a 2-1 CoH advantage, Dem convention in Denver
Alaska - Republican involved in scandal, but a state institution. Begich, the Democrat, a popular Mayor.
In play:
Minnesota - Franken was level in polls has fallen back a bit due to tax issues for his company and spending by Coleman.
Oregon - Close primary here means the Dems are well behind in fundraising but the DSCC should be able to help. Latest Rasmussen polls had the Dems 3-6 points behind.
North Carolina - Hagen has got a big primary poll bump. 3 polls have had her either slightly ahead or within 5 points of Dole.
Texas - Two polls out with Noriega only 2 points behind Cornyn. Money a problem, Cornyn has about $9m on hand to less than $0.5m for Noriega.
Maine - All polls have the Dem 10-20 points behind, but the state is very blue and the Dem is a strong candidate, should tighten in the Fall.
Mississippi - The Dem is a former Governor, a poll last December had him ahead. The Republican is an appointment. Had a big money advantage at the end of Q1
Long-shot but possible:
Nebraska - Scott Kleeb the Democrat is very dynamic but is running against a former Governor in a red state.
Idaho - LaRocco could be helped by two independents running, one called Pro-Life.
Oklahoma - DSCC have put some staffers in. Rice is another young energetic candidate that could benefit from a Macacca style gaffe.
Even longer-shots but just about possible with GOP meltdown:
Kentucky - Lunsford the likely Dem has lots of money, but has given lots of money to the GOP before. McConnell up by 12 points in recent poll but below 50%. Has a massive war-chest.
Kansas - Slattery, the Democrat is a former House Rep.
Overall then the Dems have very good chances in 5 states (VA, NM, NH, CO, AK). They should be competitive in 3 states (MN, OR, NC). It is conceiveable that they could win in another 3 (ME, MS, TX). In a meltdown they could pick up another 3 (NE, ID, OK).
A month ago I would ahve said a 3-5 seat pick-up was most likely. That is now probably 4-6, at a minimum and 10 is possible. Much will depend on Obama coat-tails, particularly in NC, CO, MN, OK.
454.’Even if a completely kind method of fox control was discovered, the hunters would still want to hunt’.
But it hasn’t.
We don’t ban things because people enjoy something we find distasteful. We ban it because it does harm.
Would you prefere a worse method just because everyone hated doing it?
416 If Labour were to shrink to 16% or even 19%, where would the other parties stand? Tories 48% Lib Dem 22% Labour 19% Others 11%?
Hard to imagine this.
On foxhunting: Just a guess 45% of voters think it should be banned; 15% have no opinion; 25% of the population think the police should take action against foxhunters, 60% think they should not.
465. It’s a shame Mark Oaten is standing down at the next election, if the Tories and LD’s had ousted the Labour government. It would be interesting to see Oatens reception around the cabinet table!!!
469. Oaten could be relied upon as being at the vanguard of any movement for change.
Nick Clegg still reminds me of Neil Kinnock!
467 - That ended up taking quite a while. Damn those Democrats with so many states in play!
471 - Really? We never knew!
411: thanks, Cookie. I can fully understand the points you make, but I’m just amused by how the admiration switches off instantly and turns into abuse when he stops being helpful. The point about mavericks is that you can’t rely on them to be helpful - if you could, they would be floor-crossers, not mavericks.
Hunting: my understanding of Cameron’s position is that he will allow Government time while making it a technically free vote. Since opponents will certainly filibuster it (as supporters of hunting did the original Bill) it will require a pretty high-profile timetabled operation to force it through.
450 Well, that’s pretty unequivocal.
I take Casino Royale’s point that Europe’s a much bigger fish to fry, and, given a choice between that issue, and fox hunting, I’d far rather see the former dealt with.
But, suppose the Conservatives did win the next election with a clear majority, I think they could push through repeal against a demoralised opposition pretty quickly.
Mind you i think Nick Clegg looks more like Frank Spencer in this picture:
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/images/2008/03/31/18_12_2007_123520_sun_nick_clegg__2.jpg
oh - betty!
On America, interesting that Obama and Clinton are now building up consistent national leads against McCain with all pollsters. Pinch of salt as they are still (just about) hypotheticals. But interesting anyway.
I think one man has to take a lot of credit - Howard Dean. The “maybe 100″ and “better off” ads really are quite brilliantly powerful bits of propaganda.
Perhaps it’s time to draft Dean to heal the party in a split convention, “And we’re going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan, and then we’re going to Washington DC to take back the White House! BYAW!!!”… or maybe not!
468 It gets banned because it’s cruel. By his logic Cameron ought to give a free vote on the Cannabis ban or on any law that people do not follow. Speeding etc etc.
475. Might be more difficult as the House of Lords is not the Tory bastion it once appeared to be.
New thread: Should Andrew Neil be the BBC’s main political anchor?
419 - indeed it is bad news. if it continues, the next move for interest rates could be up, not down.
475. Yes, if the Tories won a landslide (pretty unlikely IMHO) they would have the moral authority to force it through. Indeed there is an argument they should do it quicker, to get the embarrassment out of the way.
This depends, of course, on their mentioning it in the manifesto. Without that I think the moral case would be much weaker.
I never want to see another British government reduced to the lies and deceptions of this wretched bunch of repulsive Labour spivs. “We will give you a referendum”. Oh, no we won’t.
Ugh. Ugh ugh ugh.
One of the jobs of the next Tory government is to try and restore some faith in politics. That means doing what you say you are going to do, and not lying constantly to the people like a bloody Turkish shoe-shine grifter.
482 - I can see that you’re going to get very disillusioned very quickly by a Tory government.
The problem is I’m not sure whether the hunts can cope with another 4 years of being banned- they need the repeal now so it needs to be done in the first term. The ban, despite the impression given in the media is seriously inhibiting their operations.
I concede in part the points made by casino and others about a repeal’s image problem- it will be a difficult one to manage.Although it is worth noting that a lot of the strength has gone out of LACS in particular (their membership has halved).
If an attempt to repeal does not take place I think there will be a very widespead feeling of betrayal among the Cons bedrock rural vote. For these voters this issue is more important than Europe.
368. What a fantastic reply from Cameron. He really is THE class act now, isn’t he? Head and shoulder above all political leader anywhere in the country. How things have changed.
462 - Exactly right. DC needs to pick his battles, and what would we rather he picked - Europe or fox hunting? No contest.
Cameron comes over as a lightweight with too many pre-rehearsed soundbites and glib one liners. The electorate want a leader of stature. Cameron comes across as a shallow PR man. I forgot he was one before entering politics.