Tory lead with YouGov now 20%
May 17th, 2008
More gloom for Gordon
On an evening when several polls are expected the first one with hard information is just coming in.
For the Sunday Times tomorrow YouGov reports the following shares with comparisons from the Sun YouGov survey taken last week. CON 45%(-4): LAB 25% (+2): LD 18% (+1)
Even though this represents a substantial swingback to the government David Cameron, I’m sure, will be happy with a 20% margin.
Other numbers from YouGov have Brown’s personal ratings at 17% (good job) to 78% (bad job)
There is still no confirmation of the 8% Tory lead at Crewe and Nantwich which I reported in the previous thread.
UPDATE - Tory 8% lead in Crewe and Nantwich confirmed The News of the World is carrying an ICM survey of voters in next Thursday’s by-election showing that the Tory lead there has doubled in a week. These are the shares compared with the last survey from the pollster a week ago - CON 45% (+2): LAB 37% (-2): LD 14% (-2)
We have not got the detailed data yet but last week this was even more worrying for Gordon than the headline figures.
The latest by election betting.
Mike Smithson
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So after Gord chucks billions at the electorate and ‘relaunches’ with a range of ‘dazzling’ proposals, he’s still 20% behind in the polls?
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. Poor Brave Sir Gordon….
The Tory lead goes up to 20%. Like the rate of tax has for many poor people. How fitting…
I think this is excellent if it encourages nuLab to think they are on their way back - I’d love to hear blears spinning it:)
How long before a leftie says “Cammo must be disappointed dropping four points”?
This proves the earlier poll was no outlier - and that the local elections were no anomaly.
Labour have collapsed, catastrophically.
Simply makes it less likely that the 26% lead was a rogue.
Oops, Sean already said that
Here’s the Times Article:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article3953230.ece
Excellent poll for the Tories! The last YouGob poll was taken straight after the local elections and Boris’s triumph - As such it almost certainly inflated the Conservatives position. Now we’ve had time for everything to settle down and Brown to deploy his fightback we find the Conservatives STILL have a 20% lead and Labour only increase their % by 2% (which is within margin for error and may not be an increase in their situation at all)
This is an utterly disasterous poll for Labour and personally appalling for Brown!
45 25018 shows maj 194 with electoral calculus.
The important figure is Labour only two points up after the bribe.
The only problem with all these polls with enormous leads is that we might have to consider the possibility that those polls in the 90s were accurate!
(and get rid of the rhetoric that “with changes in methodology we won’t see their like again)
As for the Crewe and Nantwich poll (I suspect it’ll be an ICM poll) it looks like a very comfortable Conservative win to me. Given the latest poster from the new NASTY PARTY it looks like we’re going to see the horrible Ms Dunwoody and Gordon brown both getting their just deserts on Thursday evening. I can’t wait!
1: £1 billion for every point Labour’s poll rating has risen.
By the way - just for fun Baxter has:
Con - 422
Lab - 167
Lib - 32
Con majority 194
Remarkably close to the 1997 result (but the other way around, of course!)
We would lose such luminaries as:
John Hutton
Jack Straw
Ruth Kelly
Our very own Nick Palmer
Jon Cruddas
Tessa Jowell
Stephen “Tour the Studios” Pound
Alistair Darling
Frank Dobson
Charles Clarke
Jacqui Smith
John Denham
From the Lib Dem side, we would apparently lose Nick Clegg, Susan Kramer, Chris Huhne and Julia Goldsworthy. *
(Obviously this is just for fun).
* I don’t think some of those would happen, especially not Clegg, even on these vote shares.
I agree, the Sun survey looked like a rogue, now I am not so sure….
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 41% .. Lab 28% .. LibDem 19.4% .. Others 11.6%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 358 seats .. Lab 210 .. LibDem 50 .. Others 32.
Con majority of 66.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED …Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
Mike, have we got the ICM/Sunday Telegrpah monthly general election voting intention poll coming out tonight?
13 - Clegg and Huhne will be on the gravy train back to Brussels on these figures.
When it comes to getting rid of this disastrous government, I can’t see the good voters of Hallam and Eastleigh wishing to risk keeping Labour in power by voting to keep their non-entity MPs in their seats…
More facts:
The Baxter figures would see the Tories, assuming they win Crewe, gaining 229 seats. That beats the 1997 Labour gains by a long way. (Make of that what you will)
If the C & N poll is ICM that is double the lead from last week and very bad for labour!!!
One can imasgine Gordo, on the night of a crushing Tory victory, being asked how he is feeling, and replying. “I’m just getting on with the job”… denial till the last
17 Bob. Very funny !!
This is the best Lib Dem score in a yougov poll for ages (since April 2007 at a guess - I can’t be Jack W’d to look it up).
22 Peter W. You can’t be Jacobited to look it up ?!?!?
Detail from the Times:
“However a replacement leader would not transform Labour’s fortunes. Only 14% think Labour could win even if Brown is replaced.
Jack Straw and David Miliband emerge as the only serious contenders, with 14% and 12% respectively and Miliband in the lead among Labour voters. But 55% of people say they don’t know who should be the next Labour leader.”
Interesting that it seems the voters have turned against Labour as well as Brown.
A lot of comparisons in the Times article to Major and 1997. That is apparently the thing Brown really hates being compared to, apparently.
Better get used to it, because on these figures he’s heading for a similar rout.
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results.pdf
Interesting though to go back to the MORI records for May 1995 which showed the Tories on 22%, Labour on 58% and the Lib Dems on 16%.
23 No. I have been WINDed.
Off topic but Senator Edward Kennedy has been taken to hospital with a suspected stroke. http://www.kpho.com/news/16315999/detail.html
No doubt, in the bunker, Brown’s advisors will be whispering in his ears that the relaunch has worked - look we’re 6 points closer.
23. Incidentally Jack W do you use F.A.R.T. (Fair Analytical Research Theory) in your methodology?
;o)
20.
V. Funny indeed! 
These 20%+ Tory leads must be some of the largest Tory polling leads ever recorded, no?
How big was the Labour deficit under Foot and after the Falklands?
The world sucks.
Labour sucks.
Gordon sucks.
So you support the Opposition
until
you realise
the Opposition sucks
as much, if not more
and consists of people better protected (thanks to daddy)
from reality
than 99.9 per cent of voters.
Question 3.1 on the Blairs memoirs.
56% say they are cashing in disgracefully as they always intended to.
28. Did he not come out for Obama? If he croakes it would make the Clinton / Obama spread on super delegates more even?
Mike, Why no 20 smiling Dave’s or 20 grumpy Gordons?
34 I think he did, that caused some bad feeling in the Clinton camp. I don’t know what happens though if he dies or is unable to go to Denver, can he send a proxy or does the role of delegate pass to someone else. Adds interest to the whole thing because they have yet to decide whether to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. Litigation beckons.
32. I should imagine both Brown and Harmen are millionaires by the way! As with severall other long serving cabinet ministers etc - truely pathetic to go on about rich daddies etc.
Some rich folk don’t give their kids a bean because they want to make it on their own.
35
If there’s an option, I vote for smiling Dave’s.
24 - Polls like this always suggest that a different leader wouldn’t make a difference. Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t.
20. “Well, I’m getting on with the job, making the right long term decisions for the future of the country. Look, interest rates are low, we are best placed to deal with the global (did you hear me there? *GLOBAL*) economic downturn, I’m just getting on with the job and making the right long term decisions. I will be judged on how well I make those difficult decisions, and that is what I am going to do. Get on with the job. Making the right long term decisions. For hard working families. In a global downturn. Get… on… with… job” (finally sees the Tories winning Bootle and flees the studio).
34. I think i was a bit insensitive saying “croakes” - sorry for any offense.
37 - I doubt it, unless we’re back into these “asset millionaires” thing again.
Spot the deliberate mistake in the Yougov detailed results at 25:
John Prescott, the former Prime Minister, in his memoirs
I think that’s a bit of an ‘OOPS’
39 (con) - a different leader wouldn’t overnight transform the Labour Parties fortunes (any immediate polling ‘bounce’ notwithstanding). But they could recover Labour fortunes where Brown is already proven incapable.
32. Tamsin Dunwoody’s campaign manager? Is that you?
42 Harman had to take a loan out for deputy leadership did she not???. I doubt she is loaded, well heeled maybe.
Interesting little detail from the YouGov data on the Times link posted above.
Compared with last year, are you …
…more worried about losing your job?
More worried 16
Less worried 6
No change 43
Not sure 3
Not applicable – I don’t work 32
32% of the people who responded to this poll don’t work? What’s
going on there?
40. Brown is like a smelly dog turd you step in on a pavement and cannot remove despite trying to get it off. That is why these polls are so bad for Labour - Labour are doomed.
Nick Clegg still reminds me of Neil Kinnock!
47 and only 1 person in 100 said Gordo was doing “very well” as PM
47 - Mothers, students, pensioners? What’s the problem?
32. Don’t give up your day job.
Interesting to note on the electoral calculus projection - Labour would have no seats in the South East outside of London. Absolutely none. And then, apart from Bristol South and the Welsh heartlands, you have to go to the West Midlands to find another Labour MP.
50 Never realised that got up to 32%! Never thought about it before.
“Well, I’m getting on with the job, making the right long term decisions for the future of the country. Look,
I’m packing my bags and I’ve got my train ticket back to Kirkcaldy……
46. Possibly tied up in property.
It must be remembered that Brown got a lifetime mortgage on his westminister flat in his wifes name. Very strange that he got this given his wifes age - no stringes though!
I do apologise, I left one name off my Labour figures list at 13.
James Purnell would also lose his seat on electoral calculus projections (again, just for fun).
Labour set to be wiped out in the south? Will the media make as big a deal about it as they did with the Tories in the north, though?
Looks like my speculative fiver on labour for C&N is doomed, worth a try at the price anyway.
With two polls at 20% or over it looks less like a rogue though, Cameron’s job will be to keep things bubbling during the summer to keep it at least in the mid to high teens.
58. Well theres bound to be a big drop in Tory support over the summer as all those rich Tory toffs sial off on holiday for four weeks leaving the staff skivying away in their large estates and monolitic factories!
31 IIRC the Conservatives had leads of 10-15% over Labour in 1982/1983. Surprisingly, they only led Labour by 3% in 1983’s local elections, before going on to crush them a month later in the general.
I would guess the last time the Conservatives had this sort of lead over Labour would have been 1976/1977.
36 - I don’t think it is possible to send a proxy. Kennedy is a SD because he is a Senator. If he dies an appointment will be made and there will be a special election in November to decide who will complete his term. The appointment would be made by the Governor of Massachusetts, Deval Patrick, who is an Obama supporter. So he might decide to appoint an Obama supporter. However the nomination is unlikely to come down to 1 SD so he might not.
No comment on the polls, except to say that the reported C&N poll looks plausible - it’s roughly what I’d guess from the make-up of the constituency and the current national mood.
But a bit of factual info in response to the speculation on the last thread about the embryology bill. The way it works is that there is a Second Reading to decide whether to discuss the Bill in detial at all (passed last week by a large margin, most Tories abstaining though Cameron in favour); next Mon/Tues there are free votes on stem cell therapy including hybrids; whether to insist on a father for IVF; and abortion; then there will be a committee stage where less contentious issues are discussed; then there’s one more round of amendmnets (Report Stage), then a Third Reading to decide whether to accept the whole thing as amended (you don’t have a third reading on individual bits). The usual procedure, also followed by previous Conservative governments, is to whip the Bill but allow free votes on the ‘conscience issues’ as above. If abortion is circumscribed at all, I wouldn’t think there will be any pressure to reject the Bill on Third Reading.
I’m thinking of voting for 22 weeks myself, and I think if the Tories try to spin any such change for party advantage it will be a substantial own goal. The whips haven’t asked me what I’m doing or suggested I should do one thing or another, so I’m sceptical about the Telegraph report that they’ve surveyed opinion.
Conservatives currently at .12 / 1 on Betfair for C&N whilst labour 5.2 / 1.
57 - Labour won’t be far off being wiped out in the north either if they carry on like this…
58. How could you think it was a rogue when the tories had a 20% poll lead in the local elections? It was obvious that a strong showing for the Tories would boost their support.
If i were Labour i would be even more worried by this poll than the last as Labour had very good coverage of the tax bribe and the pre-queens speech. The fact of the matter is Labour are no better than the locals in being 20 points adrift! I think the press will say the fightback failed.
The big question is will Gordon Bottle going to Crewe or despratly try fighting back?
News of the Screws poll with 8% Tory lead in C&N. Sky News reporting….more bad news for Gordon Brown. Oh dear, how sad, never mind.
Is there is of course the risk that with such big leads Cameron and Osbourne will come under pressure to push for tax cuts and other policies from the Right. The Cornerstone group and others could argue that it is the Government that is imploding rather than Cameron’s centrist noises that’s giving good poll leads so why not cut loose? Something to watch out for.
60. And even then, Sean, I wonder if they did?
‘Sunny Jim’ was well-liked, at least; and Thatcher was never considered likeable. 1979 to me (admittedly in retrospect) looks like a case of the electorate realising that a change in government *had* to happen simply because the situation was dire, but that was largely by default that the opposition happened to be the Tories. Very much lends into the mantra of “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them.”
1983 is another matter, however.
62 - Out of interest Nick why are you thinking of voting for 22 weeks?
On the poll the personal figures for Brown are dire, no getting away from it. If this is sustained pressure will build. Politics is now a rougher trade. IDS and Ming showed that once your back is to the wall it is very hard to fight back.
Interesting to note William Hague not wearing a turquiose rosette in the previous piccy ?
Funnily enough, Baxter translates a 20% lead for tories into a 8% in Crewe and Nantwich (with almost the exact figures announced by Dale 44/36).
The two polls seem to be consistent.
70. I believe Brown is just 2% ahead of John Major’s worst ever personal approval rating in 1995?
20% means only one thing.
Labour are firmly in the doghouse, big style.
68 Callaghan was both liked and respected by the public, but his party (and the unions) weren’t.
I’ve always thought that Callaghan was dealt a terrible hand, and played it pretty well, leading Labour to a fairly respectable defeat (and Labour dropped hardly any votes compared to October 1974).
67. That’s the argument Tim Hames was making in the Times the other week. I think it is the left’s wishful thinking that advocates this thinking. As the tories are 20% ahead i think the Cornerstone group et al are likely to keep quite rather like the tribune (Or other socialist groupings) group in Labour pre 1997
Depending on the circumsances of an election you tend to start off in the centre as a government and then try to put a Left or Right Lilt that can then be consolidated by the electorate voting you in for a second time. I think Labour made the mistake of not making the leftist lilt visible. In addition the Labour party has hit some of its core voters hardest in power.
From the NOTW Blog
LABOUR TO LOSE BY-ELECTION
GORDON Brown’s £2.7billion bribe has backfired with the Tories doubling their lead ahead of this week’s crucial by-election according to an exclusive poll in tomorrow’s News of the World.
The ICM poll conducted across the parliamentary constituency of Crewe and Nantwich puts the Tories on 45% and Labour on 37%-double the gap of just one week ago.
The poll reveals voters think the PM’s tax giveaway was merely a bribe – with one in four saying it has made them even less likely to vote Labour on Thursday.
The poll, a devastating blow for Brown already reeling after Labour’s May Day massacre in the local government elections also reveals:
A massive 12% swing from Labour to the Tories in Crewe since the last election. That would turn Labour’s 7,078 majority into a Tory majority of well over 1,000.
Six in ten (59%), including 24% of people intending to vote Labour consider the compensation package to be cynical by-election bribe which has dramatically failed to reverse the PM’s fortunes.
Almost half (48%) of voters think Brown’s compensation package was the right thing to do, rising to 68% of Labour votes but 37% think it was wrong.
Just 4% said the compensation package was more likely to make them vote Labour in the by-election, with 24% saying they are less likely to.
Six out of 10 (63%) Crewe and Nantwich voters now think Labour would do better at the next general election if they ditched Gordon Brown.
Nick Sparrow of pollsters ICM said: “This poll completely sums up Brown’s problems.
“People believe he made the right decision on the 10p tax rate because it alleviated some of the hardship for people affected.
“But at the same time they see it as a cynical ploy to try to win the election.
“This is Brown’s special problem at the moment. Almost everything he does is interpreted negatively by the electorate.”
READ THE FULL POLL RESULTS IN TOMORROW’S NEWS OF THE WORLD
29 jsfl. Far too much wind about this place already !!
do we know the notw poll is icm? Tory lead doubled?
73- the Sunday Times article mentioned this fact.
Even without the comparison, a -61 god job/bad job rating is incredibly bad. It is worse than Bush’s scores!
(PS: The French Press is mocking Sarkozy for “very bad” polls as he has around a -10 to -20 rating)
61 - thanks for that info.
Of course, if we are still suffering from shy Tory syndrome, it is possible the REAL Tory lead is nearer to 60 or 70%, and that Labour might actually get NO VOTES AT ALL south of Mold in the next GE.
We are entering unknown territory. Tory leads have, quite literally, never been this big.
75. Yes, Callaghan left his party in an amazingly strong position, given everything that had happened up to May 1979. Had Labour not elected Michael Foot and had the Falklands gone badly, Sunny Jim had left Labour in an election winning position.
This is something Labour now have to keep in mind; Stick with Brown and its quite clear you will lose badly, consigning Labour to at least two terms out of office. Dith Brown and get a leader that can at least go to a respectable defeat, and possibly limit the Tories to just one term. Deal or no deal?
It seems to me to be a slightly bizarre argument that the better Cameron is doing and the bigger the lead, the more power the Right will have to push for tax cuts…
I’m just waiting for someone to say on these figures it would only mean a hung parliament….
Intersting that the NOTW uses the words “cyincal ploy”. It sums up Gordo very nicely (IMHO). I wouldn’t mind DC using this phrase on a regular basis, as I think it would resonate with voters.
75 Sean F. Agreed. If Callaghan had gone for an October election in 78 I think he might have nicked a draw.
NOTE poll is ICM and the lead has doubled and remember the raw figures wll bemuch more brutal!!
86. Rather like in Australia and Kevin Rudd’s backhanded complement of Howard - He is a Clever politican.
82. Actually from my telephone canvassing in C&N I’d say there is more likely to be a Shy Labour effect going on at the moment.
Clearly some people were embarrassed to admit they intended to vote Labour, but that is what they are going to do.
I have often wondered when and if such an effect would kick in and whether or not the pollsters would be able to pick up on it. Perhaps on Thursday we will find out.
85 - The problem for the Conservatives is that FPTP remains biased against them. These figures according to Matt1 above would produce a majority slightly bigger than Labour in 1997. But Labour led by 13 points, not 20 points. In other words the Conservatives need to lead by 6 points at least to be guarenteed a majority. Of course with these sorts of leads they would be fine, but I think the majority of posters would be surprised to see these figures replicated at a General Election.
77. As I said at the time, Labour will/would get no credit for its 10 compensation package. Brown had got them into a lose/lose position. He should never have aboloished the 10p rate in the first, and he certainly shouldn’t have held out as long as he did to set things right. By the time he did act, it was too late. His reputation was in tatters and he just emphasised peoples perceptions of him as being cynical, manipulative and cowardly.
83. Most certainly. Callaghan can be somewhat proud of his electoral record (well, as proud as you can be when you fought one election and lost).
I still think we’re seeing the ‘fag end’ pattern:
Churchill… to Eden (somewhat contentious, I know)
Macmillan… to Douglas-Holme
Wilson… to Callaghan
Blair… to Brown?
(I’m not including Major because he did break the ‘curse’ in some ways and actually won an election, serving 7 years as PM in his own right. Hardly ‘fag end’, really.)
Fraser Nelson has more details of the ICM Poll for the NOTW
ICM sample random 1,000 people on 15 and 16 May
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/713231/a-byelection-poll-boost-for-the-tories.thtml
93. Eden won in 1955, don’t forget.
90 - It will be intereting. I maintain that when public opinion shifts markedly the carefully refined methods, which involve lots of manipulation, may start to go wrong.
In terms of a shy Labour effect we don’t really know if it will happen (if they are shy they might just not vote at all). IMO the London polls don’t tell us much here because people weren’t embarrased to vote for Ken, or against Boris.
*interesting*
US:
Seems like the real race is starting to begin and the nomination is over. Clinton goes out not with a bang but with a whimper:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/17/us/politics/17campaign.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print
Obama and McCain trade blows over foreign policy:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/17/us/politics/17obama.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5087&em&en=6ccd6ccf1cada492&ex=1211169600
I say this in all seriousness: has there ever been a prime minister to commit suicide in office?
It’s just occurred to me that Brown is the kind of guy, with the kind of stubborn but brittle psychology, who, when faced with terrible and inexorable failure - might simply top himself rather than resign.
Inshallah this will never happen. I might dislike Brown but I don’t want to see him quaffing the Domestos.
In fact I feel sorry for him. He’s just out of his depth. He is the bass guitarist who ousted the lead singer, only to realise he’s got stage fright and can’t bear the thought of touring. I understand the band Van Halen had a similar problem to New Labour.
Resign, you poor deluded fool, resign.
91 - Reverse tactical voting, and increase the turnout among the Labour core (a la Livingstone and London - turnout among this group will probably increase with the Tory threat) and much of the “bias” disappears.
90. My guess is ICM are still overstating Labour becasue they give them 50% of those saying don’t know!
Understand Governor of Puerto Rico has endorsed Obama, 10 days before the Primary there
87. We talk about rogue polls, how can we be sure that the poll everybody cites in 1978 was not a rogue poll?
I think the Tories would hae won whether the election was in 1978 or 1979.
I can see 2007 gaining currency as Brown missing his opportunity but i think Labour would have lost then as well. Certainly i doubt a Tory victory last Autumn but a giant Tory kleap forward.
In 1978 the Tories had about 300 MP’s? They did not have to make many gains to defeat Labour.
91. Indeed, Keiran. I think we’re in uncharted territory here and one of two things is going on:
- The ‘enthusiasm’ for the Tories/’hatred’ for Labour is now masking the true underlying levels of support for the parties. In 1997 Labour were ahead with enormous leads but that eventually shrank to a still-huge 13% lead. Are we looking at *that* kind of position instead? (Which by a quick reckoning, would give the Tories a majority of around 70)
- Polling methodology has changed a lot since the 1990s and the spiral of silence should have been removed forever. As such what we’re seeing is an unprecedented electoral lead which would be apocolypic for Labour, outstripping 1997 for the Tories.
I’m inclined to believe we’re somewhere in between. Tory lead of around 14-18% or so. Difficult to say, however.
99 - I don’t think Gordon could even manage to top himself right. He’d f..k it up somehow…
New Rasmussen Presidential Poll for New Mexico :
McCain 41% .. Obama 50%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election
99. I don’t think his security would allow that to happen. However, whilst I wouldn’t put it as bluntly as you, I do think theres a real risk that Brown’s the kind of high achieving, workaholic personality that *could* have some sort of breakdown….
95. Oh yes, I forgot that.
91. I don’t buy this argument any more. I know the supposed FPTP bias against Tories is based on differntial turnouts and all that, but I think in the next GE we will be in unknown territory.
We will see most if not all anti-Tory tactical voting unwind. We may see massive anti Labour tactical voting. We will see Tories turning out in droves and Labour voters abstaining. We have various thriving fringe parties who will complicate things, and in Scotland we may have Labour losing seats by the fistful to the SNP.
I don’t think previous models apply. There are too many complex variables for anyone to wargame the next GE based on the present polls and past voting pattenrs.
104 - YouGov method is supposed to eliminate “shy voter” syndrome, and ICM adjust for it on a party neutral basis, so comparisons with the 90s in this case may be dubious.
Obama picked another Super Delegate from Honolulu, Mayor somebody
105.
And then deny that he ever meant to snuff his lid in the first place.
100 - I don’t think this is the case. Look at 1992. Major had IIRC a 7 point lead and yet still only got a tiny majority, compared to a 3-point lead for Labour in 2005.
The fundamental point is that of differential turnout which will remain even if the Labour core vote goes up.
If the Tories have a big win then it could be magnified by tactical voting. However a 5-point lead would indicate a much less vociferous anti-Labour feeling.
It doesn’t look on the cards at the moment though, and is largely irrelevant with these kinds of figures.
96. Very True - Ken appealed to certain voters.
The only thing Brown does is repell them. I have not heard one poster in recent months say Brown motivates me to support him/ work for a Labour victory where as Ken Livingstone did at least achieve that!
Changing sides Kieren or relised you have been flogging a dead horse? Time for the Horse to be turned into glue me thinks
If you Gov is giving Lib Desm 18%,then would expect ICM Sunday Telgraph to put them on 21%.
rogerh
37.
Of course there’s the odd well-heeled Tory in Gordon’s lot. Doesn’t take awy from the fact that the majority of DC’s brigade are just well-heeled chancers who play politics rather than do anything useful with their lives.
Now tell me something significantly different to what Gordon’s doing that Cameron would do if he was Prime Minister tomorrow - and don’t quote identity cards because it’s absolutely obvious that the Tories would have brought these in if they had been in government. DC’s at least had the honesty to tell that voter that he’d not have reversed the 10p tax rate change. Just like he and his schoolboy chum would have done nothing different on Northern Rock…. or the Iraq war. . . . .
99. We were talking about Pierre Bérégovoy on here the other day. Killed himself after leading the French left to a huge defeat in the Assemblée Nationale in 1993. (About a 24% margin of defeat, I think).
Goodness, I hope Gordon wouldn’t do it. That would indeed be tragic. I think he could rebuild himself as a respected academic if he tried. Moving back to Kirkcaldy where, by all accounts, he is pretty much revered, might help him break the disappointment of defeat.
116. Fulfill the manifesto promise - and give us a vote on the EU Constitution.
And call an Iraq inquiry.
106 - The three states that I think are crucial are Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Colorado, if Obama can get leads like the NM one then he’s starting from an excellent position. With all of those, states like Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri and so on would just be icing on the cake (if anyone wants my EV calculation at the moment I’ll post it).
109. Scotland is an interesting case, and will undoubtably go different to the Baxter projections which largely ignore the SNP. The Tories are unlikely to win significant numbers of seats there (they should hope for around 4 or so) but what *will* be interesting is seeing how many the SNP take off Labour. My guess is a fair few.
So, to recap, we’ve had;
YouGov/Sunday Time
ICM/NotW (c&n)
And we may or may not get an ICM/Sunday Telegraph poll.
104 - What has to be recognised IMO is that voters aren’t really thinking about the Tories at the moment and they know there isn’t going to be a GE tomorrow. When voters and the media scrutinise the Tories more then I think these leads will shrink. I wouldn’t rule out a big Tory win at the next GE of 8-12 points, but think these numbers for them are soft.
109 - Sure history doesn’t decide the future but that doesn’t mean you should throw it out of the window. For starters there has already been tactical unwind in 2005, the Tories did better than UNS predicted. I’m quite sure that whatever lead the Tories get they will have less seats than Labour would with a similar lead. I accept that the bigger the Tory lead the smaller this gap would be as tactical voting increases.
119 - No one expects the Spanish inquisition; The four states that I think are crucial are Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan, Indiana and Colora… I’ll come in again…..
The dog that isn’t barking is the “can’t vote Labour,won’t vote Tory” contingent, which remains relatively small. Have the Tories decontaminated their brand so completely?
117. I know we’ve been discussing the possibility of Brown being ‘handed the revolver’ by his colleagues to ‘do the decent thing’, but I assumed we were talking metaphorically rather than literally.
116. I must confess it would be difficult because the only “new ideas” the government come up with are the ones the tories propose!
Certainly i would hope that the Tory National Border force would have been more than a name change, that the MRSA in hospitals would have achieved more than Labours deep clean, that the NHS intronet (data access system costing £12Bn) which leaves patients information open to theft / Blackmail / descrimination etc had never been implemented. Just think of the doctors nurses health treatments that would have assisted.
124. Memories fade. A lot of people who lived through the 80s and 90s aren’t with us anymore. A lot of younger people can’t remember the Tory ‘troubles’ of those decades.
The Lib Dems stand to guard against losses in the South if they manage to turn the ‘can’t vote Labour, won’t vote Tory’ contingent to their side.
114 - Don’t worry Martin I’m not wavering, but I’m not blind either. I’ve been saying for a long time that I think Labour will lose the next election and that Brown has made mistakes as leader and could be in danger if the polls show Labour staying in the low-20s. I still prefer a Labour government over a Tory one, without a shadow of a doubt.
124. If so, the Lib Dems are in big, big trouble and we are heading back to late 1970s style two party politics.
128. Fair enough!
122. Scotland and Wales will be crucial. Labour suffered a horrendous meltdown in Wales in the last locals. I suspect a GE in Scotland, if held now, would produce similar results.
If Labour lose their heartlands in the Celtic fringes, and the dozens of seats that go with them, then it won’t matter so much if they still benefit from differential turnout in England.
Put it another way, Labour’s unprecedented vulnerability to the SNP in Scotland, and all three other parties in Wales, might largely wipe out their advantage in England under FPTP.
Whatever our political colouring, punters and anoraks like us must welcome this unpredictability. Makes everything so much more interesting and exciting!
Kieran at 69: I’m more concerned with foetal pain than with the hypothetical question of the normal age for independent survival: it seems to me that if there is reason to think that the foetus has developed the ability to feel pain at a certain time (cf. Anand’s work, which suggests this starts sometime in the 18-24 period) then that is the time to be restrictive about abortion. 22 weeks would be a step in that direction without being drastic enough to risk significant unintended consequences. But I’m not going to decide finally till I’ve heard the debate.
I also have an amendment of my own, with cross-party support, proposing scientific information on the conditions that arise (info of life expectancy, quality of life, available treatment and help, etc.) to be offered to all women faced with a report of an abnormality (which can allow abortion up to 40 weeks at present): this is currently common but not universal. The idea is basically not to circumscribe choice but to try to ensure that it’s *informed* choice. It’s opposed by the Abortion Rights Campaign, who feel that offering information in response to a request for an abortion is implied pressure not to do it - this seems to me to stretch the meaning of ‘pressure’ too far.
117- The difference is that Beregovoy was morally destructed by the idea that he was somehow responsible for the intensity of the defeat because of accusations of personal wrongdoing (he had received a “no interest loan” of 1 million francs from a dodgy businessman… and longstanding friend).
This was eve more devastating for Beregovoy as he always had a complex as a former uneducated factory worker in comparison with the rich ENA-educated elite that dominated the socialist party.
I don’t think Gordon share these characteristics…
119 ukpaul. Yes please.
“Now tell me something significantly different to what Gordon’s doing that Cameron would do if he was Prime Minister tomorrow” How long have you got?
To start with we would increase the tax free allowance permanently instead of just as a one-off.
Then we would scrap ID cards, introduce immigration limits and enforce them with a border control force reporting to a homeland security minister.
We’d have a referendum on the EU constitution.
We’d scrap the early release of prisoners.
I think a review of the smoking ban, 24 hour drinking and licencing laws is a certainty.
And I can’t be bothered to go through the rest of it. But a lot would change almost instantly.
99. Didn’t Foreign Secretary Canning top himself - alledgely he was being blackmailed?
I think Cameron would be wise to soft pedal Brown over the next few weeks. If he does humiliate Brown at PMQs and then Brown does crack up, people will turn on the Conservatives. Are people on this board old enough to remember a Conservative Minister who was slow-handcapped when he made a terrible speech to the Party conference (John Davies, I think his name was)? He collapsed with a stroke afterwards and was rushed to hospital and died. A lot of Conservatives activists felt ghastly and ashamed afterwards.
133. Brown has rather different personal demons, it would be fair to say.
109. As SeanT suggests, Labour could lose massively to the SNP in Scotland. There will certainly be distinct elections in England and in Scotland (and possibly in Wales), and Labour no longer has the huge Scottish contingent of MPs in the bank before the election is even held.
Anyone betting on the result should be very careful about national (i.e. UK) extrapolations. The UK no longer exists as a homogeneous political entity. Alex Salmond and the SNP could drive a stake through Labour’s Scottish heart, and it looks increasingly likely that David Cameron’s Conservatives will crush them in England.
129 You are going to be sadly disappointed with such wishful thinking .
136. No. Castlereagh.
121. A contact who normally hears if there is a poll in the (Sunday) Telegraph has just got back to me and says that they haven’t heard anything. So I’m not sure there will be another poll.
If Labour lose C&N by a comfortable margin and the tax bribe is widely seen by the public as a con trick what then for Labour backbenchers who demanded the changes be made, partially to try to stem the tide and help save their jobs (as well being against the principle of the elimination of the 10p tax..)?
That gambit will have failed and who will be blamed?
I suspect the great leader.
138. By say 2014, i.e. two elections from now, the SNP could have more seats than the Lib Dems.
135 Are those Conservative manifesto commitments to be ? Marcus .
@139:
We should be heading back to 1879 two-party politics.
143 Dream on yp dream on .
136. No i don’t think you are right. John Major had a right go at John Smith a day or two before Smith died. I think he called John Smith a little Boudder etc.
People relise that it is the nature of politics for people to get a verbal bashing - If Brown topped himself then his reputation would be smouthered for ever as not being upto the job due to percieved phychological flaws - having said that someone who is sucidal would not think like that anyway about there long-term reputation etc.
@146:
Mark Senior: do you ever fail to take the bait?
A crucial paragraph from the Times poll analysis. Apols if this has been cited before:
“Last week’s U-turn on tax has not gone down well with voters. The Tories now have a two-to-one lead on the question of economic competence. Only 17% think Alistair Darling is up to the job of chancellor.”
A two-to-one lead on economic competence? For the Tories?? That’s an extraordinary collapse in Laour ratings on the economy. It was only about six months ago Brown and Darling were still nudging ahead on this vital criterion.
We have, I think, witnessed a slow motion Black Wednesday. A political paradigm shift.
144. (yawn) Please read the comment I was answering the question what would be different if David Cameron was Prime Minister tomorrow.
The manifesto will be *much* more interesting, but we won’t be telling until it’s too late for Labour or the Lib Dems to nick all the ideas like they usually do.
Has anybody heard anything on the condition of Senator Ted Kennedy? The way Fox News are talking it sounds very serious.
The Liberal Democrats seem as doomed as Labour to me - think many of the MP’s will be signing on at the job centre with me! Maybe i can show Clegg what to do as he has probably never been in a job centre as a customer!
Come to think about it i would be interested to know how many of the current cabinet have had to sign on?
Labour could be sued for this? Calling someone a con man?
Since when did calling someone a criminal without any evidence become acceptable?
I say file the lawsuit. Nail their hateful tongues to the wall.
143. yp, it is looking more than possible that Scotland will be independent by 2014, and Scottish MPs right out of the equation in Westminster.
144 - well they all sound good to me, apart from reviewing so-called “24 hour drinking”.
I haven’t engaged in a single bout of “24 hour drinking” myself since the licensing laws were liberalised, and I don’t know anyone who has been able to manage to keep drinking that long…
Hopefully Marcus means reviewing the typically bureaucratic way Labour went about liberalising pub opening hours, freeing things up, and removing all the red tape involved. Sadly though, I think many Tories subscribe to the Daily Mail agenda which would see us all tucked up in bed at 11pm.
83 I think you are being too kind to Callaghan here.It can reasonably be argued that he bears responsiblity for the 1979 defeat by failing to call the Election in Sept/Oct 1978 - so avoiding a winter of discontent.. Moreover , by remaining as Leader of the Opposition for 18 months until November 1980 he cost Denis Healey the leadership and landed his party with Michael Foot!
152. ‘Martin’ - your biographical details are fake, aren’t they?
153. whoa, is that real? Looks a bit fake to me, if it is real thats libelous.
Looking at the C&N poll. We have the Conservatives gaining vote share from Labour and from the LDs.
According to the poll, the Labour vote has not collapsed in this past week, but it has continued to decline. So much for £2.7Bn.
For the LDs, this weekends campaign starts to look desperate when sitting at 14%. Are they trying just to shore up their squeezed vote just to stay in double figures?
Their earlier decisions to change candidates and split resources with Henley could backfire. The LDs appear to have gained few disenchanted Labour votes and are ending up in a similar position as they did in London. All the tons of Focuses now being delivered is still resulting in a level of support lower than at the GE.
In Eric Pickles the Conservatives seem to have found their election guru.
152 It is good to see that you have at least become realistic in that you will still be signing on in 2010 .
153. I wonder whether the Tories are best issuing the writ on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday for maximum affect?
148: “Mark Senior: do you ever fail to take the bait?”
He hasn’t responded to 17 yet…
I say this in all seriousness: has there ever been a prime minister to commit suicide in office?”
No. Castlereagh (who I think Charlotte Corday has confused with Canning - they hated each other) committed suicide as Foreign Secretary in 1821. Allegedly, he was being blackmailed about homosexuality (a capital offence then) but most historians discount that explanation, and accept that he was suffering from mental illness.
122 It is not difficult to understand, Kieran.
FPTP is like capitalism — the Rich get Richer. FPTP is like Rupert Murdoch — it favours winners and exaggerates their lead.
If any party wins 35 per cent of the vote but 58 per cent of the seats, then (whether Tory or Labour) it is very vulnerable as its vote drops. There will be a catastrophe at some point when it loses shed-loads and shed-loads of seats — and FPTP no longer works in its favour but against it.
Throughout the 80s, FPTP worked in favour of the Tories. There is no immutable law that says FPTP favours Labour.
157. As in what sense?
131- agreed. Though, it depends how many Scottish and Welsh voters will vote the same in devolved and general elections. It’s all very well looking at the Assembly/SP Elections- but then the Nationalists should expect better results by the very nature of the election. I do think that any swing from Labour to the Conservatives at a General Election will see an equivalent, if not larger swing to the SNP in Scotland if only on the popularity of Alex Salmond. In Wales, I’m not so sure. In the valleys, people will vote for Plaid, elsewhere, probably the Conservatives. Oddly, the Conservatives have been the second largest party in Wales in terms of votes cast since 2004, but I’d guess that the swing from Labour will be shared pretty evenly between the Conservatives and Plaid.
Essentially, 2010 could very well be a historical landmark because Labour will possibly never again be able to rely on MPs from Scotland and will be weakened in Wales- with the added threat of draining funds- as I’ve said before- it could- and I stress could- spell death for the Labour Party as a Party of Government.
135 - A review of the smoking ban would be pretty stupid, since the end result would be to keep it.
158. I retract that, it is real, and it is wrong.
156 One opinion poll gave Labour an election-winning lead in September 1978, but Labour’s private polling pointed to a hung Parliament. Understandably, Callaghan couln’t stomach that idea. He couldn’t have known he was about to be hit by the Winter of Discontent.
WRT remaining as leader, the Tory party has found it very problematic to have defeated leaders resigning immediately.
BTW what philosophical principle underpins opposing 24 hour drinking and opposing the smoking ban?
I support the smoking ban, and oppose 24 hour drinking, although i think it slightly misses the point and a better target would be the supermarkets.
164 - Explain 1992 then.
167 I could see a Conservative government exempting private members’ clubs.
159 The 2 C%N polls are within M of E and it is quite possible there has been no change in voting intention between the two polls . At least you seem to have accepted the fact that LibDems have not given up and switched all their resources from C&N to Henley . You must put your trust in CCHQ disinformation . If the Conservatives are happy to mislead and lie to their own party members they will do the same to the voters as a whole .
171 - My point was not that FPTP won’t appear to continue to favour Labour, but that the apparent “bias” won’t be nearly as stark as it is now.
171. Tatical voting and the kinnock affect - the Labour vote did rise quite sharply and the Tory vote stayed in the low 40’s but on a higher turnout.
@155:
Reviewing 24 hour drinking means finding out that it doesn’t actually exist.
Vague promises to give the police more powers to object to licenses, that will be all.
155. Cammo is on record saying he doesn’t want to go back to the restrictive drinking laws. He is a libertarian, at heart.
Good.
Anyway, there’s about a hundred pubs near me (in Fitzrovia not Byzantium) only about three of them open past 11. I don’t think the hours matter much.
Our alcohol problems stem from other things - cheapness of booze, a binge culture, underage tippling.
One thing Cammo will do, immediately, as I say upthread, is GIVE US AN INQUIRY INTO THE WHOLE IRAQ DISASTER.
166 - Of course it ‘could’ end Labour as a party of government but it is very unlikely to. Remember Labour have a majority of English seats.
P.S Gwynfa explain that. Where did the winners bonus go? The Tories got more votes in England and Labour got 90 more seats.
172 - So a pretty minor change in the grand scheme of things then.
153. I think the most ridiculous part of that ad is the line at the bottom where it says.
‘One Of Us’
One of what?
The Nu Nasty Party?
The U-Turn Party?
The Totally Visionless Party?
175 - Major had a 7 point lead and got a majority of c. 20. Blair had a 3 point lead in 2005 and got a majority of 66.
171 - The 1992 election was actually accompanied by substantial anti-Conservative tactical voting. The swing if uniformly applied would have bought a much bigger majority for Major.
160. Yes, More than likely given the economic downturn caused by Labour’s economic policies. Nevermind every cloud has a silver linning and i can come on here and discuss how Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock, Ming is like a Skeleton, Chris Huhne is like herman munster!
Sean,
don’t feel sorry for Brown. He is a ruthless, cunning operator who will happily sacrifice all those around him to try and survive. IF Labour loses on Thursday (which even by his posting earlier Nick seems to concede)Brown will make Harold Wilson and Harold MacMillan look like gentle PMs when he conducts his reshuffle. Scotland has known him for a lot longer than you folks down south and as a politician a great many Scots loathe the man and there will be few outside the Bendy Wendy Supporters Club who will shed a tear if he soldiers on and leads Labour to a crushing defeat.
167. But you might consider how environmentally friendly it is to force millions smokers into open sided shelters (heated by calor gas) to smoke instead of allowing landlords to designate a smoking room indoors for those who want one.
The law as usual was badly drafted and badly thought through, just like the licencing laws which forced thousands of small hotels to stop serving alcohol in their rooms (because the law they had to provide the town hall with detailed drawings of every room where alcohol might be served, a hugely expensive excercise that most small hoteliers couldn’t justify).
Pubs, bingo halls, social clubs and small hotels across the country are closing at an unprecedented rate as a result- thanks to New Labours stupid meddling.
Smoking, drinking and gambling in the home - where problems are harder to spot - are massively on the increase.
Alex our positions are similar then. The bias towards Labour will reduces (new boundaries, reverse tactical voting), however the bias will remain because of differential turnout which has widened markedly in the last two decades.
183 - yes, if only all MPs could be like the lovely Stewart Jackson!
You girls just crack me up ! You girls talk about ‘Labour losing massively’ to the SNP in Scotland…….and yet, surprise surprise ! you can Buy SNP Seats at 9.0 but you don’t want to.
What is the downside ? Maybe two or three seats.Offset that against all this ‘massive’ froth and what do you have ?
You have a bunch of girly girls, skint merchants masquerading as toffs and a few football hooligans posing as political experts.
Is there a man amongst you ?
181 - What point are you making? FPTP helped Labour through the 90s and onwards. Nobody denies that. However only a small part of their “advantage” is structural and long term (ie. the population drift from Labour seats to Tory ones). Differential turnout helps them but the issue here is more about vote distribution. Arguably the picture is skewed by turnout in Tory seats being boosted by their opponents having an alternative to vote for (ie. the LibDems) ie. the “high turnout” in Tory seats isn’t just down to Tories voting. Turnout in Labour seats could rise as a genuine alternative in those seats develops.
Other parts of the “FPTP bias” could disappear very quickly.
185 - Yeah but there’s no smoking in pubs so it’s great for my washing bill!
179. Not necessarily. Large numbers of pubs could redesignate themselves as private members’ clubs, charging a nominal annual fee and that would drive a coach and horses through the ban. That’s why such clubs weren’t exempted in the first place.
179. Not necessarily. Large numbers of pubs could redesignate themselves as private members’ clubs, charging a nominal annual fee and that would drive a coach and horses through the ban. That’s why such clubs weren’t exempted in the first place…
178 Kieran, It obviously depends on the disposition of the forces against you.
As you say in 2005, the Tories got more votes, and they didn’t get more seats. Now perform the thought-experiment of increasing the Tory share of the vote and increasing it, and increasing it. What happens?
There comes a point when a catastrophe happens (both from Labour’s point-of-view and in the mathematical sense) — FPTP now no longer favours Labour but the Tories.
Labour now loses shed-loads of seats — partly because they have lost share of the vote, but this is exaggerated as FPTP starts to work against them rather than for them.
181. Yawn. This was before:
1. the latest boundary changes
2. the unwind of anti-Tory tactical voting
3. the new possibility of anti-Labour tactical voting
4. the crushing of Labour in Wales
5. the new threat to Labour in Scotland
6. Blair and Brown making Labour so utterly hated and reviled people wouldn’t spit on the Cabinet even if David Miliband was on fire
Taken together these things make the built-in Labour advantage in FPTP a little less reliable than before. But by all means continue to believe in it.
I do detect the faintest hint of wishful thinking in your posts. Can’t say I blame you.
173 Mark Senior.
I did share evidence that the LDs had split their resources between Henley and C&N. There is also the extraordinary tactic of requesting help for Henley when there was a week to go in C&N.
Is the LD operation in C&N now called “Operation shore up the vote”?
or “Operation retain the deposit”?
190 - like the lack of smoke in pubs, but still don’t agree with the ban.
179 Quite a big change, as it happens. There are thousands of working mens’ clubs, Conservative clubs, masonic halls, branches of the Royal British Legion etc. up and down the country. They aren’t open to the public, so there’s no reason why the members shouldn’t have the right to determine whether or not smoking is allowed on the premises. It would be a popular move, and in keeping with Conservatism.
191 - Sorry minor change, if implemented as intended
194 - Labour may well lose their deposit in Henley.
164 The question is not FPTP, but boundary lines in constituencies. As living in a Labour area is unpleasant, as soon as people can afford to, they migrate in to Tory areas. The net result is that safe tory seats tend to have very high populations when compared to safe Labour seats, and boundaries are only redrawn infrequently, and with old data (currently, the 2000 census, so we’ll have 10 years of Tory flight to overcome at the next general election).
Needless to say, this results in the under representation of Tories when compared to Labour, although not to the extent which FPTP disadvantages the joke parties when compared to the main two.
196 - Don’t want to get into a debate coz i don’t really care either way on the issue (subject to post 191), but don’t many of these clubs hire out their rooms to sustain themselves? Presumably they’d have to be smoke free on these occasions?
Kieran, another factor to consider is the Tory Ashcroft millions pouring into the marginals.
If the Tories mop up all their intended targets, and benefit from a decent uniform swing elsewhere, they will crush Labour whatever the differential turnout.
Like I say, this is imponderable, but it is possible. Everything is possible: things are on the move.
Note that no one predicted the total Labour meltdown in the locals, for instance.
I read in Guardian that Labour were pleased to get 200 helpers from outside. That is but a fraction of those who would lose their jobs if there was a change of Govt.
150 MPs plus 4 Assistants = 750.
70 ministers plus 3 SPADs each = 280.
Total is over 1,000. All funded by us tax payers.
134 - Okay Jack (and to prove I can count!)
Definite Obama - Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), New York (31), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), DC (3), Delaware (3), Illinois (21), Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), California (55), Washington (11), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4) RUNNING TOTAL 207 Delegates
Probable Obama - Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10)
RUNNING TOTAL 238 Delegates
Leaning Obama - Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5) RUNNING TOTAL 274 Delegates
Definite McCain - Georgia (15), North Carolina (15), South Carolina (8), Texas (34), Alabama (9), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Arizona (10), Utah (5), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Alaska (3) RUNNING TOTAL 186 Delegates
Probable McCain - New Hampshire (4), Florida (27), Virginia (13), Montana (3) RUNNING TOTAL 233 Delegates
Leaning McCain - Ohio (20), Indiana (11) RUNNING TOTAL 264 Delegates
I think Obama should start off by testing out states such as Alaska, North Carolina, Nebraska and the Dakotas to see how flaky the McCain lead is there.
n.b. Split EVs in some states but they should be equalled out.
The usual argument around FPTP is that:
-Both two parties can achieve huge majorities (ref - 1983/1997)
-The Tories tend to have a larger number of vulnerable seats when a landslide comes than do Labour (160-ish in 1997, whereas Labour with a smaller percentage of the vote got over 200 in 1983)
This is due, I believe, to several factors, including:
- Voters in Tory constituencies more likely to turn out than Labour
- Labour constituencies tend, on a whole, to be mildly smaller in population than Tory ones (see - Welsh valleys for a good demonstration).
So the basic *building blocks* of UK FPTP do favour Labour.
But the current *boundaries* have an added effect in favouring Labour.
It’s a dual process.
Obama said to be declaring victory on Tuesday night or Wednedsay morning in Iowa.
Hilary says she is going to the Convention to compete.
Some senior Democrats must be pulling their hair out, and the Republicans laughing all the way to the polling booths.
On differential turnout, I think if the GE results were reconfigured to an assumption of equal turnout in every seat it would result in about a 1% swing. Ie. a general election result of Lab 37 Con 32. Not massive in the grand scheme of things.
193 - As EDW points out not many people are backing up this Scotish issue with their money. The Labour vote has remained pretty steady in Scotland, only a small fall in Holyrood last time. There has been an SNP surge but this is not guarenteed to continue. Also, Sean there has already been tactical unwind in 2005 when the Tories did better than UNS.
Gwynfa - You’re right that FPTP has a winners bonus. As I said in my posts as the Tory lead increases, so the bias against them decreases. However it is one of many factors.
Alex - We can’t predict exactly the changes and the bias will go down next time but it will still affect the result.
BTW rumbling under the surface are these constant rumours that the Auditors are about to refuse to sign off the Labour Party accounts and effectively declare them bankrupt. What are the implications of this?
203 - Surely the main reason for the lower “base” Tory figure in a landslide is that large number of their seats are being taken by the LibDems? That accounts for the bulk of the difference between c160-170 and c200.
194 The LibDem aim in C&N is to get the maximum possible LibDem vote . That is the aim of all political parties surely , even the Conservatives in the Sedgefield byelection followed the same practice . I find it very strange that you cannot see this simple principle .
200 - Sean if the Tories have a big swing in their favour it all becomes irrelevent. I think Matt’s post sums things up nicely. It seems to me though that in close elections FPTP helps Labour, it is just we haven’t had many close elections recently. 79, 83, 87, 92, 97 and 01 all had winning margins of 6% +
209 C&N projection: Gemma some votes, LD fewer votes!
Perhaps Crewe will have to be renamed Dunsinane on Friday?
2005 IIRC Lewis Baston did the calculation and it was a little over a 1% swing . I will try and look up his article .
206 - Generally we probably agree but I wouldn’t say that it would “affect the result” in the sense that i suspect you mean.
I would put it that the Labour advantage will reduce perhaps fairly substantially, and the net result is that the Tories will do better than predictions (which are usually based on UNS models).
213 oops refers to 205
212: 2010 Con maj 20% - don’t think that will help Labour!!
204 - There is absolutely no way she will go to the convention. She cannot talk about withdrawal but she certainly will withdraw long before the convention.
210. OK, I’ll stop teasing you. I do, in fact, accept that FPTP gives you a couple of points advtange. My thesis is more that everything is now in flux in such an unpredictable way, this small but solid advantage may be an irrelevance - compared to some much larger and more volatile shifts in the voting patterns.
e.g. What if Labour collapse in Wales in a GE and the North the way they did in the locals? No one saw those local results coming.
Heh.
216 - I also think the Conservatives will do better than the UNS predictions.
LDs =
LOLOLOLOLOLOL
OLOLOLOLOLOLO
LOLOLOLOLOLOL
220 - I wasn’t aware you were teasing me? Kieran, surely?
The last post was for Kieran. The bloomin’ numbers is buggered again.
204 UKPaul. I have heard it suggested that Tim Pawlenty (R, MN) might be McCain’s running mate. If you took MN out of Obama’s column and put it in McCain’s, that would make a huge difference.
Sean/URW, Scotland is going to be the most interesting part of the country on GE day. The Tories have been creeping back up in the polls for some months and are now pushing through 20% which hasnt happened since we bucked the trend in 1992 and gained from Labour (Aberdeen South). The SNP will do well but because of the polarised votes, so will the Tories. Labour will suffer but proportionately the LibDems should be the biggest losers.
Argyll: SNP/Tory gain from LibDem
West Aberdeenshire Tory gain from LibDem
Gordon: SNP gain from LibDem
Berwick etc: SNP/Tory gain from LibDem
South Aberdeen: SNP gain from Labour
Ochil: SNP gain from Labour
Edinburgh + Musselburgh: SNP gain from Labour
Edinburgh South: Tory gain from Labour
Edinburgh SW: Tory gain Alistair Darling P45
North East Fife: Tory push LibDem hard
Stirling: SNP/Tory gain from Labour
one of Monklands goes SNP from Labour
Dundee West: SNP gain from Labour
Linlithgow or Livingston: SNP gain from Labour
one Glasgow seat possibly Glasgow North: SNP gain from Labour
Dumfries: Tory gain from Labour
and if polls really bad for Labour
South Ayrshire and Carrick etc: Tory gain from Labour
North Ayrshire: SNP gain from Labour.
Scots politics is moving fast and Labour now hold only 2 councils and there are several where the Conservatives are either the largest party again or are in coalition.
132
” I’m more concerned with foetal pain than with the hypothetical question of the normal age for independent survival: it seems to me that if there is reason to think that the foetus has developed the ability to feel pain at a certain time (cf. Anand’s work, which suggests this starts sometime in the 18-24 period) then that is the time to be restrictive about abortion. 22 weeks would be a step in that direction without being drastic enough to risk significant unintended consequences. But I’m not going to decide finally till I’ve heard the debate.”
That doesn’t make sense. If you think the strongest argument is that “the foetus has developed the ability to feel pain at a certain time (cf. Anand’s work, which suggests this starts sometime in the 18-24 period)” surely you have to vote for a 17/18 week limit?
220 - I’ve acknowleged that above. A Labour collapse will mean losing a lot of seats FPTP or not.
225 - Then you could put Virginia in Obama’s column if he chooses Jim Webb (which I think is increasingly likely).
211. Clegg must be getting very worried about a derisory vote share to be throwing all these resources at a hopeless seat.
229 - What about Webb’s comments about 20 years ago saying women shouldn’t be in the military? I’ve been the one arguing his case but he is a bit rough around the edges.
I forgot East Renfrewshire which was until 1997 the Tories safest seat in Scotland. The only mainland Scottish seat not altered much last time by boundary changes, will fall back to the Tories. Jim Murphy has been a good local MP but the Tories have a good local candidate and in the council elections in 2007 (which almost exactly mirror the Westminster seat and Holyrood seat) the Tories returned to being the equal largest party with Labour.
Gun to head,because I don’t like making predictions, I agree with Kieran.
I think this will fall into the category of a semi-wipeout at Crewe.
A full wipeout would entail Labour failing to obtain second place and even coming close to the lovely Gemma.
220/221 - It is quite amusing the number of “arguments” that are had on here for no other reason than two people are political opponents. Ie. arguments where they not only basically agree, and manage to somehow have a debate where only one side is ever expressed
Webb is very good indeed. He beat an excellent Republican who should be up for bigger things (African-American, bright and personable). But could be put Virginia into the Dem column - I’m not sure. It’d certainly be a knife edge battle.
I hope Obama doesn’t have the good sense to choose Webb, who ticks a lot of boxes including military.
Such childish excitement over opinion poll results. Who cares which of our three Tory Parties [Brownstuff faction, Pretty Boy Dave faction or the Man Who Never Was...Elected faction] wins an election in Crewe and Nantwich?
And who gives a monumental dump which of these factions leads others by whatever amount in opinion polls? If you keep making a fuss about them you’ll encourage the pollsters to continue bothering the law-abiding population of the UK.
How will this un-monumental debate alter the lives of the British people?
As I have not been following this nonsense closely, would somebody please tell me which policies will be changed or not, following the counting of votes? And which policies are being debated by the candidates, the parties and the British people? Which policies will be changed by the publishing of opinion poll results?
I am not being rude, I genuinely feel this is all about very small storms and very large tea-cups.
Malcolm
235 - Think you’re getting mixed up Test. Webb beat George Allen a White Republican who made a racially insensitive remark. Before that he was being talked about as a Presidential candidate.
230
What was the point of replacing Ming with another poor performer,even stranger when they had Cable with a proven track record in the HoC and on the media.
I find it somewhat strange that people continually associate the turnout issues and electoral boundary issues solely with FPTP. Surely they apply to all voting systems?
The only difference between voting systems is that such issues will perhaps manifest themselves in a somewhat different form and perhaps to a lesser or greater magnitude. However the basic issues will remain.
The one issue that can be addressed directly is the Electoral Commissions rigidity in ensuring Parliamentary constituencies coincide with Local Government boundaries (rationalising the differences in electorate size between consituencies). This is something the Conservatives have talked of changing by allowing Parliamentary constituencies to cross Local Government boundaries and with that the whole picture could change radically.
As for turnout I’ll offer my stock answer. If political parties gave the disenchanted a reason to vote then a significant proportion would come out and vote.
226 - A bit more optmistic than I am. FWIW I think we’ll gain Berwickshire etc, Dumfries & Galloway and East Ren. Anything more than that and I would see it as a bonus.
I would think the SNP will also gain Kilmarnock from Labour. Gordon I would think is a bit unlikely without Salmond standing.
227 Anyone who has watched a 12 week old unborn baby on a scan knows it is a person.
Humans are quite cold when they cannot hear someone scream. It is the same reason that Islamic regimes like Iran, gag women and put them in a hood before stoning or beheading.
Many people are not touched by someones pain if they cannot hear it. Some people have no empathy at all.
235 Southampton Test
George Allen is a racist bigot and he has been the butt of jokes because of his inexcusable behaviour during his failed attempt to be re-elected in Virginia. Only somebody with rhino-thick skin and extreme right-wing racist views would call Allen ‘excellent.’ I’m sure that doesn’t apply to you Test. You have never given any indication that you are a bigot.
Perhaps a little more homework might help.
Malcolm
239 - The point with FPTP is that turnout in Labour seats is lower than in Conservative ones. Therefore Labour needs less votes per seat.
236 I dont think there is any point in telling you - you dont seem to listen
238 Cleggy is performing increasingly well thank you see the ratings in the PHI5000 panel survey .
241 - Are you a real person or a spoof? If the former you might think about moving to the US. You’d probably fit in a lot better politically.
209.
The Telegraph ran this story today.Apparently they are £21m in the red, and donations have fallen, in the last quarter, from £2.86m to £581,000. In the same period, unions have given £4.5m, up from £1.6m. Might be wrong, but I think they can carry on even if the auditors cannot guarantee that it is a “viable going concern”.
Implications?
If it goes bust, the lenders wont get repaid. Guido did some work on this previously, and seem to recall that Unity Bank are in there big style.
If it did happen, expect Dave to propose some kind of bail out, a la Northern Rock. “After a prolonged period of surgery, we are hoping to refloat Labour as a serious political party”.
Priceless.
246. So hard to tell the difference sometimes, isn’t it?
re 236. The reason we get excited about polls on this site is because they affect the betting. I’m afraid that how, as you put it they “..alter the lives of the British people” is a bit beyond me. I have no idea.
I love watching the political process in action and get great personal satisfaction when I predict things which come about. Beyond that … well I don’t really know.
Anthony Wells has posted on UK Polling Report:
C&N Poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1208
National Poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1207
test
…also on 236. I don’t think policy matters a jot except as a mean to seek to differentiate yourself from your opponents.
Thus Gordon is pressing for a 42 day detention without trial period not because he believes it but because he wants to appear tougher on terrorists than the Tories or Lib Dems.
Humans are absolutely lovely when they CAN hear someone scream. That is a scientifically known fact vouchsafed to pbers for the first time, courtesy of a bolted horse.
There is a website(or should be) called ‘nonsequitursrus’.
Go find it,Bolted Horse…….go boy,go !
241
‘It is the same reason that Islamic regimes like Iran, gag women and put them in a hood before stoning or beheading.’
Nothing that the primitive,beastial Islamic culture does would ever surprise me.
252. It appears the public are also not buying that in ibncreasing numbers.
You know when the public, beyond the chattering classes, start believing that such a measure is posturing that the government is in big diffs.
It is still a bit of a fight back even if not as much as I expected. I thought the tax bribe would boost labour 5 or 6 points more. But i does not seem to have worked yet. But it may take a few months for people to nottice.
The by election is a lost cause. So they were probably right to get it out of the way ASAP.
I am labour but I was never a fan of the late Dunwoody I found her too sharp. What is the difference between a battle axe and someone who is just rude. Maybe Crewe people did not like her as much as the claim is is made.
But i see no prob with this class war stuff. It is a joke. Get over it. :
204 ukpaul. Thanks for that. If I may I’ll comment later.
Kieran, sorry - I must have him confused! I wasn’t thinking of George Allen at all, I was thinking of (iirc) Michael Steele. But wait, he was MD, not VA.
Webb is still very good despite not having beaten him.
243. If voters of a certain political colour decide to /are forced to live in a certain area how does the voting system change it?
If those same voters choose not to vote how does the voting system change that either?
42 days without trial is absolutely the correct strategy for GB to pursue.
I am talking ‘Games Theory’ here. Gordon has a lost position.If you keep on making straight,conventional moves in a lost position you will LOSE.
When in a losing position there are two strategies to adopt.The most conventional and soundest is ‘defence’.The other strategy is ‘counter-attack’.
Now the great Lasker always advocated ‘defence’ as the best counter-strategy because he was talking about Chess where you can get a Draw.
Maybe in Politics the best counter-strategy is counter-attack.
236. Given such deeply held and passively-aggressively articulated views why do you spend time on a web site that’s obsessed with polls?
SpIn have just suspended their GE seats market - again!
62, 132: Nick Palmer - interesting to hear your thoughts. I broadly agree FWIW, glad to hear you are taking it so seriously and letting the facts and debate sway you rather than being dogmatic either way, that is surely the right way to go.
In general, how much do you take notice of your constituents on free votes? Is there a tradition or protocol amongst MPs for this? I would guess you tend to hear mainly the extreme ends of the spectrum of views though?
245
Strange,when the Lib Dems do well in by-elections you always say how much more important they are than polls;now they have performed badly in the London & local elections you say Clegg is performing well based on an opinion poll/panel and not election results.
Shouldn’t you at least be consistent?
Martin Day: (147 amongst others)
Do you spell check your job applications? You are far and away the worst speller on the site! “Boudder”?? Is that meant to be Buddha? Boulder?
Just trying to be helpful…
Re: Webb, well if the choice is between someone who said something twenty years ago and things such as Roe-Wade maybe being overturned I would hope that Democrat voting women weigh those two issues against each other with care.
163. Sorry, I did confuse Canning and Castlereagh. Due to celebrating - hic - Pompey’s victory.
I think you have been far too charitable to Callaghan who scuppered Barbara Castle’s “In Place of Strife” and therefore brought about the “winter of discontent”. But seeing as he was born in Portsmouth, I shall refrain from sticking the metaphorical knife in tonight.
136. Canning was hit by a train, possible the first railway fatality.
262 Nick Palmer always takes note of his constituents. Remember, no-one mentioned the 10 p issue on the doorstep . It was like a summer storm that passed over almost unnoticed
267 wasnt William Huskisson the first train fatality??
267. Credit to Nick Palmer for simply posting on here, despite the Labour collapse on all fronts. And same goes for Kieran, Jonathan and (when he does post) Tyson. Can’t be much fun, coming on here to be ridiculed and chortled-at. Even if you do deserve it.
I note that Roger and Snowflake, and some others, are not quite so noble and valiant. In fact they’ve done a total runner.
Cowards.
263 The LibDems performed badly in the London Assembly elections true but performed reasonably well in the local elections overall with some especially good performances , so I am being consistent .
271 One thing is for sure Mark, you are consistent…
267 According to Christian Wolmar, the first recorded fatality on the railway was during a public run on one of Stephenson’s designed railways (Stockton to Darlington or Liverpool to Manchester, I can’t remember without reference).
For those interested, Ted Kennedy was rushed to hospital after a severe seizure this morning.
273 I just checked with wikipedia.. If its right then it was William Huskisson
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Huskisson
269. Mea Culpa, you are right. Huskinson died after being hit be a train on the Liverpool Manchester Line opening day.
Canning had fought a duel with Castlereagh. Castlereagh appeared to have had a severe mental breakdown, see When Illness Strikes the Leader.
Watch Andrew Marr now on BBC2.
I put out an updated forecast this morning of an 8.5% Conservative winning margin. Seems that ICM agrees with me.
275/6 That’s it! Keeping it strictly on topic, of course.
143 sorry just seen it!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAAAHHAHAHHA!!!
270
I thought that Roger was on that long list of lefties published in the Guardian, who promised to leave London if Boris won,so maybe he’s been tied up organising his move.
280. Given he owns numerous homes throughout the world his leaving shouldn’t be that complicated.
270 I’m still around-local election night on May 1st totally knocked me off my smoking wagon-the tipping moment was when Southampton City council went overall Tory control for the first time since 1984-at that,I thought ‘F*** it,I’m starting again.(I still had some pouch tobacco in my house,and had the odd one or two in my last few weeks )
280. Yes, I imagine Roger has fled to that socialist second home of his: Sarkozy-voting France. Funny how so many lefties seem to like living in places run by the right.
OK, as tomorrow I am driving to the Dardanelles, I must now go and drink Kavaklidere red wine, and read Alan Moorehead’s “Gallipoli” - and then get an early one.
Nightnight.
279 Ave It 08-do you fancy Bristol City or Hull tto win the play-off final? (FWIW,who’d WANT to win,and be next years Derby County??!!)
265 - It is not a question of what they should do but what they will do.
280 Please God.
284 - very true, I’ve posted on a different site to the gist of “what’s the bloody point? Either of them will make Derby this season look like Real Madrid. For the sake of the competition they’d be better off keeping Birmingham City up instead. Or even better, obviously, promote Leeds United directly to the prem :D”
273
There was a split in the Tory party between the liberals led by Huskisson and the die-hards led by the Duke of Wellington. Huskisson was furious that the Duke was muscling in on the opening of the L’pool- Manchester railway which was in his constituency. They both went and the various whips and spin doctors of the day persuaded Huskisson to approach the Duke and try a reconciliation, when their train stopped to take on water. The meeting went well but the little group of politicians failed to notice another train approaching on the parallel line. The Duke who stayed in his carriage warned them but Huskisson, who was recovering from a serious operation could not scramble back on board. He grabbed the carriage door but it swung out, into the path of the train, crushing his leg to a pulp.
SeanT Drink only Raki, and Altinbasi at that. The wine is pretty dire and always has been. The beer, which is still officially a soft drink, is good, but drink only Raki with food.
Plain with ice in a short narrow glass and topped up with a little water.
I salivate. Tekel products are difficult to get outside Turkey.
And if you get the chance and can drive along the Bosphorus past the infamous ruins of the British summer consulate in Tarabiye toward Kirecburnu, and might still find Bizim Gasinozu where you might see a photo of me on the wall. But I was younger then.
284 Either, I would have thought, considering they pick up a minimum of around £60M over the next 3 years, even if they are relegated in year one.
While there has been a good deal of speculation of possible Labour defections in recent days, could the bigger risk post C&N actually be of Lib Dem defections?
A dismal failure in this byelection, coming on top of the painful squeeze in London, could be a real wakeup call for some of the more career-minded Lib Dems who have toyed with the idea of crossing the floor in the past but have shied away from committing themselves.
289 Crikey Witan, are you very famous?
291 - Clegg?
280. Now Roger, Roger has to stay resident in UK, because its one of the few countries were he can get away with some of his more outlandish thoughts.
Maybe he’s on assignment..admittedly a very long one.
PB.com is such a fantastic resource. This latest poll confirms how deep a hole Labour are in. A large Tory majority is clearly a realistic outcome now and the market should move accordingly. But don’t take my word for it. I found the below post earlier today truly perceptive and this was before the latest polls. It’s from the thread headed Gem for Chestminster.
“64. Mike. “Why does Labour’s starting position have any impact whatsoever?”
I have not seen you make this argument before. If you are correct that incumbency has relatively little effect on the next GE outcome and that the real factors are the individual party’s personalities, policies and poll ratings, then I can see the Tories winning BIG at the next general Election.”
Truly the words of a soothsayer.
[109] - There’s one thing I’d be willing to predict, that the Lib Dems won’t make the most of Labour unpopularity. In part this would be paying for their mistake in 2005, when they should have been aiming for as many second places behind Labour as possible.
291 Yep, it would be understandable - the betting markets suggest a third of LibDem MPs are likely to lose their seats at the next GE. Trouble is, at this stage, how many would find alternative winnable seats with the Tories - virtually none.
PfP No, I just spent a lot of money there over a number of years. The food was wonderful.The owner took our photo (Brits, Turks, Danes) and put it on the wall. It was still there ten years later and when we made a booking the owner was very nice to us keeping the place open very late so our friends could come and eat with us, and the bill at the end was purely notional. Turkish hospitality.
[13] - Given that Labour lose more than half of their seat in such a scenario, who does it leave them with?
Ed Balls, Sean Woodward…?
Labour could pay a high price for manoeuvring such a large number of cretins and turncoats into safe seats.
262: There isn’t any standard procedure - each MP does it differently. On a ‘conscience’ issue I try to work it out from first principles and listen to the arguments more than weighing the number of voters. I’m a bit scornful of the position of some churchmen that a 3-line whip is a bad thing and MPs should jolly well do what their church tells them - that’s just a different 3-line whip, isn’t it? I find people are quite tolerant of different views on this sort of thing, and anyway when it’s a life and death matter you should try and get it right and worry about the votes afterwards.
In this case my original inclination was to stick with 24 weeks, because I wasn’t aware of reasons to change and am wary of unintended consequences of change; then two constituents pointed me at Anand’s work, which made me have another think. I’m not going below 22 as Anand and other scientists are really not sure about it, and I’d like to give us the chance to study the effects of a small change. In any case I want to hear the detailed arguments in the debate before finally deciding.
I don’t myself think that we should legislate on the theory that every a small clump of cells has a soul so I don’t have a problem with the embrology parts of the Bill. But on this occasion I agree with Bolted Horse that we tend to underestimate the potential for suffering for anything we can’t communicate with (I argue similarly for restricting painful lab experiments on animals).
268: yeah, yeah, give it a rest - as you know, that was a single day’s canvassing in someone else’s seat (which we duly held), and I contradicted it with a different day’s report a couple of days later.
284. I think you do Bristol City, at least, something of a disservice. We’ve got a chairman willing to invest, and a hell of a potential catchment area. If Wigan can survive in the top flight, then so can we.
290 True-it is a common mistake to believe ALL the money comes up front-as I understand it c.£15-18 million in August, x million dependnt on Sky coverage,then the parachute payments for 2 years.
(FWIW,I do actaully think Bristol City or Hull would at least win 3 or 4 home games,get a smattering of draws,and totter to c.20 points-appreciable ‘less bad ‘ than Derby,but finishong 20th nevertheless !)Ciao for now,off to the pub,syanora!
284 - I would like hull to win as they have never been there before and i have a friend who is hull.
I think hull might just do it. I would expect either hull/bristol city and stoke to come straight back down although with around 25 points. WBA might just hang on.
Virtually no movement as yet on the spreads following YouGov’s poll. Which other(s) are expected tonight?
The Lib Dems are caught in a return to 2 party politics. The idea that under the current environment with the heat taken out of Iraq etc possibly hold on to all their seats this time around is just plain unlikely if not impossible based how things seem to be going.
Thats why I found the dumping of Ming campbell baffling. Ok he was no stellar performer but the pathetic use of his age etc as an excuse for what was poll panic was a joke and also stank of people who just didnt get that the political situation had changed and that they were going to be under the ciosh whoeever was the leader.
297. I imagine one or two high-profile figures might be allowed to stay on in their current berths.
As always the most likely parliamentary defection is from the Conservative party . We are still waiting for Rik W’s promised 3 LibDem MP’s to defect to the Conservatives which he made over 2 years ago now .
301 Point taken-but when (if ever) did a club come staright from the third to first tiers in consecutive years-I vaguely recall Watford coming from fourth tier to top tier c.1978-82 (will cheer Ave It 08 up
),but however great the potential,it would a mammoth struggle-I do live on the south coast,in Bournemouth,and out of 4 Bristol City fans I have met,only one wants to be promoted
300 Nick thanks for that open statement on the 22 weeks.
I thought it was only the Tories who were worried about Ming’s age, Yokel (305).
308. I think the financial rewards are such that promotion is worthwhile, whatever happens afterwards.
Lib Dems probably facing their worst by election performance since the 1996-7 era. Mind you that was followed by their best General Election performance, well in terms of seats, certainly not votes which went down dramatically. Will we see the same again this time?
As I’ve been quoted above as some sort of authority on the by-election outcome (hey, I can find Crewe on the map now), a small update on C&N phone canvassing, after getting serious and working through 50 pages (not all full!) of numbers today. As before, it was a second canvass of ex-Labour doubtfuls. Last time about 25% were going Labour, 10% abstaining, and the rest ostensibly unsure. People now seem to be making up their minds (and some have already voted). In this group, around 45% now say they are going to vote Labour, there is a scattering of Cons and LDs (about 4% and 2%) and 10-15% not voting, leaving 35% still thinking it over. This is a better result than a few days ago despite the appearance of some switchers - quite a few people said they decided to stay with Labour in the last couple of days. But it’s still just a piece of the jigsaw and the poll is more weighty evidence.
One common problem is that people over 65 with two pensions think the 10p change has harnmed them when it hasn’t, because the increased tax allowance reduced tax on pension A while pension B had more tax deducted, and the voter has only noticed B. Persuaded a couple of voters to swing back by explaining this, but there must be lots more who still think it.
308 watford wen from 3rd tier to 1st tier in 98 and 99! (And then we went down to tier 2 following season!
And of course we finished SECOND in our first season in top flight in 82/83 - so we finished higher than LDs ever will!!!!
310. No idea. I just thought it stank at the time just as I think the forthcoming attaks on McCain will stink, some of which will no doubt come from bald men the wrong side of 50.
with the link to Wells I have now checked the yougov figures. This is the highest score on You Gov since April 2007, and lib dems haven’t been any higher than this on yougov since gaining Dunfermline from Labour in 2006. Since the election that never was polls (which had the lib dems on 11% and contributed to the departure of Ming) Liberal Democrat has risen by 7% (Conservative support has - from a higher base - risen 4%).
314. Maybe Watford should have “Winning Here” on the front of their shirts?
312 Many of the byelections in the 1997-2001 parliament had poor LibDem results as did Ogmore in the 2001-2005 parliament .
Here is a little reminder of successful LD days back in 1987! All about the joint leadership!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCAuF_zY-LI
The graphic at the end shows LDs as a tiny little rump! Looks like 2010!!!!
SDP HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
314 Liberal Democrats were second in Watford in 2005 and will probably finish first in 2010. Conservativee = losing in Watford.
300: Thanks a lot.
Out of interest, is there a Labour poll rating below which you will stop coming on here
You may find Martin Day’s job centre experiences useful in a couple of years I suppose
317 TEE HEE: we could try ‘We win as often as LDs’ ho ho
318 Mark how are the coins?
320 WATFORD 2010:
1. OAKLEY (Con) Lots
2. Lab or LD who cares
3. LD or Lab similarly
305 - it wasn’t Ming’s age. It was that he was crap as leader. Like Gordon. Like IDS.
317: Only their away shirts eh Ave it?!
313. Nick why do you bother with this stuff? No-one believes any info of this sort you post will be remotely accurate.
323 you said that last time, but Tories came third.
325 only in their practice games LOL
When Tories do badly in local elections - like Winchester or Eastleigh this year - the Tory bores here say it is irrelevant.
When the Tories do well, like in most places - it is highly indicative of coming world domination.
Funny world those CCHQers live in.
Nick Palmer You were so right when you said:
” spending vast sums in the hope of swaying opinion is IMO reasonably described as trying to buy a favourable result.”
by Nick Palmer MP November 12th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
291
‘could the bigger risk post C&N actually be of Lib Dem defections?’
Would anyone want them?
300 Nick glad to see you are taking a considered view on this and as I welcome any reduction in the abortion time limit I am pleased you will vote for 22 weeks. Despite my own feelings I don’t think a move much below that is practicable.
An amniocentesis at 16 weeks will get a result in a couple of weeks possibly three. If your baby has a condition such as Edwards Syndrome it will have no life to speak of and a termination is an understandable option.
I find the scientific ‘they’re not people’ arguments as bad as the ‘everyone should accept our religous beleif’ ones.
321: well, if it drops to 0 I’ll stop coming on, since by definition I’ll be dead.
Otherwise, it doesn’t really matter - I contribute because it’s an interesting forum, not to gloat or gloom.
326: shrug, speak for yourself, harry. Some people say they find my stuff interesting and it’s always true as far as it goes; you’re free to skip it.
307: “As always the most likely parliamentary defection is from the Conservative party”
You can have Ann Winterton, Mark…
308
You have a short memory!
The one and only Wimbledon FC.
Baiting Nick Palmer is really unpleasant gloating. What’s the point? It’s not particularly attractive, or necessary. Glad to hear pain is a consideration for you Nick on this bill. That’s consistent with your animal rights stance.
If Nick left we’d lose valuable insights into the PLP. Especially on whether Gordon will be ousted or not.
Weren’t there rumours of a defection to the tories being announced this weekend?
Anyone heard anything?
Nick Palmer I would have thought glum was the order of the day considering the change in you assessment of Labour’s chances in C and N, which, if you are right, suggests a Tory Tidal Wave and not as was your assessment last autumn 2007:
“And yes, that is (Labour) landslide territory, and a market on whether the Conservative Party will be called something else within 12 months might be worth opening. To be precise, Labour’s lead in 1997 was 12.5%, converting into a majority of 179. I don’t think we’d quite achieve that, but 100 looks increasingly possible.”
337 this was just something Martin Day said and unless I missed something it was completely unsourced.
Noting that Roger has gone quiet, I checked the GLA results from his (London) neighbourhood.
For Mayor
BJ, 1,263, Livingstone, 660 and Paddick, 222
For Assembly List
Con, 1,097, Lab, 375, LD 233
GLA Member
Malthouse (Con) 1,218, Quereshi (Lab) 383, LD 331
Polly Toynbee may well have ensured the best Johnson result in Lambeth, she lives in Clapham Common ward.
neither appear to be very much in touch with their neighbours !
335 but back then Wimbledon were only promoted once in a season - not twice as this year! (MK Dons + AFC Wimbledon)
332 on a more serious point I favour 20 weeks (but not fewer). 22 weeks is a step forward - it is highly unlikely that life is viable then with a reasonable prospect of good quality of life.
333 Nick keep posting. PS labour = :LOL:
When my daughter was born almost 30 years ago, the team of doctors in the next delivery room was battling to save a premature baby that was being born at 27 weeks. At that time I recall the abortion limit was 28 weeks. I felt then that it was totally wrong that one part of the health service was, rightly in my opinion, trying to save a life whilst in another part they were aborting a very similar life. This had a profound effect on me at the time and even more so as medical knowledge has progressed.
Test, if you think Nick P is going to give you an detailed and clear insight into what is happening in the Labour party and its likelihood of ditching Brown, he would have to be a much worse and less aware politician than I know him to be.
342 its a good call and the reason why we need to move it back to 22 weeks or preferably 20.
I suspect 22/23 weeks is the absolute fringe of viability and is the natural limit
336 & 343
‘If Nick left we’d lose valuable insights into the PLP. Especially on whether Gordon will be ousted or not.’
Test,engage brain prior to opening mouth?
343 He’s said before that what he posts is true, and if he knows something damaging to his party he just doesn’t post it. Ergo, if it was ferrets in a sack time we wouldn’t hear it before it went public. But when he said the other day there were no rumblings to oust Gordon I take that as true - at least at that time. And find it useful to know.
According to the Sunday Times, Labour’s latest barrel-scraping tactic in C&N is to call the tory candidate a “friend of the paedophile” beacuse he has apparently defended people accused in child s3x cases.
Is it now offical NuLab policy to disallow legal representation in certain criminal cases?
Not much lower for them to stoop is there?
http://tinyurl.com/5dq6k2
About halfway down the article.
Baiting Nick Palmer is clearly wrong, but… Witan’s quote… oh dear -
“And yes, that is (Labour) landslide territory, and a market on whether the Conservative Party will be called something else within 12 months might be worth opening. To be precise, Labour’s lead in 1997 was 12.5%, converting into a majority of 179. I don’t think we’d quite achieve that, but 100 looks increasingly possible.”
Hah. Ahahahaha. HAH. HAHHHH. HAH. HAHAHAHAHAHA. AH… HAH! HA! HA! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
HAHAHAH
ha haH HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
hah!
HAHAHAHAHA!
Eheu.
On the more salient point of Turkish wine - Witan: I think you haven’t visited recently? Like you, I always presumed Turkish wine was yuk - indeed the last time I was here in 2006 (admittedly in wild Kurdistan) the wine was barely liquid, let alone drinkable.
So, this time, on my way through the airport I bought my usual half dozen bottles of decent French/Spanish red… and it turns out I needn’t have bothered.
Because local Turkish red wines are now rather good. Not just reasonable - but actually good. From Cappadoccia I believe. Anyway they are really rather nice, and I do have moderately demanding tastes in red wine.
Still not cheap though - £5-£10 a bottle, which is a lot in Turkey. But who cares, Tom Knox is paying!
I shall look out for your photo on the Hellespont tomorrow.
Witan
“Nick Palmer I would have thought glum was the order of the day considering the change in you assessment of Labour’s chances in C and N, which, if you are right, suggests a Tory Tidal Wave and not as was your assessment last autumn 2007:
“And yes, that is (Labour) landslide territory, and a market on whether the Conservative Party will be called something else within 12 months might be worth opening. To be precise, Labour’s lead in 1997 was 12.5%, converting into a majority of 179. I don’t think we’d quite achieve that, but 100 looks increasingly possible.”
Look, nobody is a more Tory partisan than I, but back in autumn 07 Brown was getting 13% leads and the Tory party had not won since 97 and if you believed the polls its great young hope wasn’t going to help it this time either. So was Nick’s assessment that far off given all that?
A week IS a long time in politics and I think where we were last summer, and then remind myself Gordon has two whole years. Of course I’m bullish but see no reason for complacency at all.
347, just despicable.
There are certain types of doing things I dislike in politics: Cameron’s use of the word ‘loser’ at the dispatch box (whilst I agree with it entirely) wasn’t something I approve of.
But this negative, vicious smearing of Timpson (and the unwarranted attack upon the lovely Miss Great Britain) is completely out of order.
I hope the voters of Crewe and Nantwich turn out in droves to show what they think of Labour’s nasty behaviour.
Jon C wow, thanks for that article
Labour’s campaign manager in Crewe must go
“There have also been Labour attempts to smear Edward Timpson, the Conservative candidate, as a “friend of the paedophile” because he has occasionally defended sex offenders in his job as a barrister. “I think you will find he is not the type of lawyer he claims to be,” one Labour MP said.
In further evidence of negative campaigning, Labour activists have been accused of telephoning Crewe voters in the middle of the night posing as Conservative canvassers. A Tory campaign source said: “It would not surprise us if Labour was stooping to this level. Its entire campaign has been marked by mean-spirited stunts and dirty tricks.” ”
Ugh, have you no shame Labour?
346 Test, the day Nick said that the press were reporting the opposite. A good MP knows when not to know and be sure not to know. Fingers in ears and la-la-la-la at the top of your mental voice.
One Tory MP, quoted I think in those famous Clark Diaries, used to ensure he was never available to anyone when he smelt dirty work about to start, as he could then say truthfully he knew nothing of such horrors. Perfectly honest response.
You do seem to be rather naive where Nick is concerned. Or have you got a crush on the rugged visaged Nick which leaves your critical faculties in standby mode?
350 And probably counterproductive, even from Labour’s point of view.
Trying to post something about Nick Palmer and (unrelatedly) red wine. Keeps getting spamfiltered.
Anyway - Witan - Turkish red wine now rocks! Honestly. I am surprised as you - but it’s true. They make it in Cappadoccia. £5-£10 a bottle - not cheap. But very nice.
347. I make exactly the same assertion as I made earlier today.
Nastiest by-election since Bermondsey. And all the fault of Labour.
Peter Golds - I think Roger and Polly Toynbee are both fortunate to have such sensible neighbours.
236 Malc, your posts are akin to yesterdays newspapers, only good for fish and chips. how about changing the record??? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
347. How much lower can Labour stoop? How much further into the gutter can they get? How nasty will they get before they are thrown out of office in disgrace?
Does Nick Palmer condone this, I wonder?
Labour did something similar in Hartlepool, Jon C (47). It was wrong then and it is wrong now.
I don’t remember many Tories rushing to the defence of Jody Dunn then though.
Still, she was only a Lib Dem, wasn’t she?
349
I believe that the Labour campaign is being run by snout in the trough Tom Watson,he manages to employ most of his family courtesy of the taxpayer.
When Brown was stabbing Blair in the back in autumn 2006,it was porker Watson that drove 300 miles to Brown’s house on the pretext of delivering a present for his son.
351 LOL. Not exactly!
I think Nick’s a good guy but I violently oppose all his policies (99% of them) and I support his Tory challenger for Broxtowe with great enthusiasm!
But isn’t the great virtue of PB that we have Stewart Jackson and Nick Palmer posting, and SBS and Mark Senior? If you’re churlish to every Labour poster they might not bother with the place. I like a cross-party mix myself.
Good for you, Test (60). I said - above - that there were still some decent Tories about.
I desperatly, desperatly want to see David Cameron ask Gordon Brown about Labours behaviour at Crewe and Nantwich on Wednesday. He should put the arch bully on the spot and make him answer for all the appalling things that have been done in his name at Crewe. No dount he’d just deny everything like the miserable coward he is, but at least he’d be implicated in what has been going on.
347 Indeed disgusting - and they deserve everything thrown at them on this. As Tressage states, Comical Tommy pulled the same stunt in Hartlepool (where Jody Dunn had once represented a heroin addict iirc)
SeanT Pleased to hear it, they have been trying for a long time and I haven’t, sadly, been back since 2000, although I get mail from friends still from time to time.
I would still rather have Raki, and if you were to come across the right person who can tell me where to find Raki in London or Madrid or Lisbon I would be very grateful.
Unfortunately my main business contacts are in fruit for Japan, and Tekel is still a nationalised company I think.
Ps Have you been to Rejans yet in Beyoglu? Is it still there? The two Russian princesses must be dead by now as they were ancient in 95 - I think it was - when I last ate there. The food is awful, the lemon vodka is great, and the atmosphere wonderful. And there is a plaque on a seat back that might interest you.
362 I agree.
Night all, got to be up early.
PS thanks Tressage.
358/359 Yes I believe it was Tom Watson who used the same tactics against Jody Dunn in Hartlepools .
349 - To me the article reads that Labour is somehow encouraging the lovely lady, presumably that a disaffected vote for her is one less for the Conservative. Weird, I know…. Might this (just possibly) also explain the Sun’s piece this morning? Or have the illuminati got to me?
313 Nick Palmer . If the voters are confused blame Gordon… he was confused/in denial. He said noone would lose as a result of the 10p issue despite people telling him he was absolutely WRONG. (He dint actually make a mistake..it was DELIBERATE to wrongfoot the Tories and ensure his unchallenged coronation.)
The fact that such duplicity has rebounded, is only fair and just. As ye sow, so shall ye reap.
SeanT Have you come across the book ‘Strolling through Istanbul’. Even an out of print copy is full of valuable stuff. Redhouse Press, by Sumner-Boyd and Freely.
New thread - Will the “Toff campaign” insulate Gord from blame?
367. I love visiting Turkey, I like the Turks, and I’ve been hugely impressed by Istanbul on this visit. My guide has been Orhan Pamuk’s Memories of a City - brilliant book - he captures the odd melancholy feel of the city - marinated in its own ruins. Apparently there is even a Turkish word for this unique post-imperial tristesse - “huzum”.
However amidst my enthusiasm there are two cavils: I have confirmed what I always thought: Turkish food is one of the most overrated cuisines on the planet. Aubergines, lamb, vine leaves. Vine leaves, aubergines, lamb. Plus kebabs, bony fish, overcooked veg, and… aubergines.
It’s not that much better than Greek food - which might just be the worst cuisine in Europe.
And should they join the EU? I confess I don’t know.
They are pretty Muslim, and getting more so. Should that precl;ude membership? Perhaps, until we have sorted out our own attitudes to Islam.
And anyway, Austria and Greece (and others) will veto Turkish membership - so it isn’t an issue - for the foreseable future they simply are not going to join the EU, whatever Britain says. And we know it. I suspect our pro-Turkish mebership stance is a bit of cynical realpolitik.
Tut tut.
I know it is probably oft said, but when you look back to the 2005 election, with the Tories losing as they did, for Howard to stand back, take stock, and prescribe a 3-4 month proper leadership contest was a very wise move. (It was never certain his protégé Cameron would win, incidently.)
Assuming Brown ends up losing the next election (whenever that is), can you seriously see the Labour Party taking stock in such a dignified manner?
In a comparison article on ConHome by Rob Wilson MP, on Major and Brown, he suggests that unlike the current ferret-in-a-sack mentality, the then Major Government, while racked with sleaze issues, could still operate fully as Ministers, with their Departments behind them.
I would imagine Howard’s tight running of the Home Office (in sharp relief to recent efforts by countless Labour Ministers) probably gives earlier clues as to his capabilites when he was leader. A shame the the country was not ready for the Tories under his leadership, but his legacy cannot be overstated given such as tonight’s poll(s).
The curious Democratic Primary system continues.
Nevada nominating delegates to the State Convention today arising from the Caucus’s earlier this year that Clinton won on votes.
However then due to the heavy Obama voting in two counties he got 13 to her 12. Today he got another, apparently today it went 55-45% for Obama, gives him 14-11, One extra pledged delgate for him and one down for Clinton. A net gain of 2. She must be pulling her hair out.
Understand Colorado and I think Kansas are doing the same process today, but there is no news of any changes from them.
Apparently she is really putting herself about in Kentucky and is having a virtual free run. If Obama cannot win Oregon there will be questions.
With this extra delegate from Nevada he is only 16 from a majority of pledged delegates, leaving out Michigan and Florida.
Take away about another 6-8 ex Edwards delegates still to declare,
that comes down to 10 or less, presuming they follow their leader.
Because of the recheck of votes in Ohio that increased his tally and reduced hers he may pick up another one from her.
Funny old world
Some news from Colorado. This takes some beating.
Apparently results not known because one computer has broken down, delayed matters by 2 hours, and get this, someone was threatning to move or clamp cars in the car park, so some folk left early. The latter occurred in a heavy Obama voting area, this may adversely affect him, he took all three there last time. Might be one back for Hil and one less for him, you couln’t write this could you.
SeanT Where in God’s name have you been eating? Good Istanbul food is unbeatable. Go out to the Belgrade forest and try a local place there. Or up to Ankara where the tourists are fewer.
Have you not had split belly, nor followed it with the maiden’s dream? No ‘it made the imam faint’ or sweet white pudding made of chicken breasts? No proper kofta, no palamut or lufer, no borek hot and cold…well I could go on. I am staggered if the place has deteriorated that much in seven years.
As for getting more muslim, I don’t think so. The influx from the far east of the country has changed Istanbul to a less cosmopolitan place outwardly, that is for sure, but overall Turkey is Kemal country. The country that gave all women the vote before the UK did.
362.
Meltdown approaches!
I cannot remember any party behaving in quite this fashion before.
Whilst I hold no candle for this lot, thinking back to 1997, the best economic inheritance of any incoming government, ever, and the huge wave of optimism behind TB, how did it go so wrong?
Agree with comments above ref Nick P; clearly too nice to have made any progress amongst this shower.
344. If “22/23 weeks is the absolute fringe of viability” then why should the limit be reduced to 20 weeks?
Surely on this basis it should be 22 or 23 weeks.
Obama gets an add on from Kansas, the Lt Governor, and it is unoffically reported that a Super Delegate Evans, not sure where from, has switched from Clinton.
No doubt all this will get sorted out in the morning and we will have new figures for delegates.
Crewe and Nantwich is quite sane compared to all this!
Thought If Obama loses in Oregon as well as Kentucky Tuesday and then declares himself the winner on total delegates, it will seem a bit wierd.
@381:
On what basis is ‘viability’ anything other than a profundly dimwitted basis to make the decision?
Good article in The Telegraph on Gordon Brown, economics and where we are now: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/18/ccliam118.xml