Three polls that shake Labour to the core
May 18th, 2008
Graphics - News of the World
Can it get any worse for Gordon?
Reproduced above are the graphics that appear in this morning’s News of the World showing the key numbers from its ICM survey of Crewe and Nantwich voter ahead of next Thursday’s crucial by election.
Given that a week ago the same pollster was reporting a margin of 4% for the Tories it is very hard to see how any other result than an emphatic victory by Cameron’s party is going to be possible. The response to the £2.7bn tax package seem particularly damning.
As well as being bad news for Labour the ICM survey could impede Lib Dem efforts in the seat. Clegg’s party has thrown an enormous amount at C&N and this does not seem to be bearing fruit. The one viable strategy left, which will be played hard, is to go to Labour supporters to say that a Lib Dem vote is the only way of stopping the Tories.
The betting markets have reacted as though the Crewe and Nantwich result is now a near certainty. Betfair’s Tory price has tightened to just 0.11/1. So a bet of £100 will produce a profit of just £11.
The other two polls to be published were on national general election voting intention and both had Labour in the mid 20s. ComRes in the Independent on Sunday was the last one to appear and has with changes on the April poll CON 43%(+3): LAB 26%(nc): LD 19%(-1). This is the biggest ever Conservative lead that the pollster has recorded.
The ComRes figures are in the same area as YouGov for the Sunday Times which has, with changes on the last survey by the firm nine days ago - CON 45%(-4): LAB 25%(+2): LD 18%(+1).
The totality of this must be particularly worrying for Labour strategists and the hundreds of MPs who face the prospect of losing their seats, salaries and allowances.
The question is whether there is anything that Gordon can do to reverse the tide? For in the past fews days he has added £2.7m £2.7bn to the national debt to fund the tax changes, put forward all his developing policy ideas into the so-called “draft Queen’s Speech” and had a media blitz on a scale that we have not seen before.
This story will continue…..
Mike Smithson
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The last few weeks have been a sea-change, no doubt
2. Typo in article (final paragraph) - should say £2.7BILLION, not £2.7m!
This signals a coming political earthquake of great magnitude.
Or a political hurricane, if you prefere atmospheric analogies; violent waves for change are coming…
Now — my question is: what kind of Conservative will Cameron favor?
I mean: conservatism is not indexed to a political Party, it is a trans-partisan movement, right? Beyond partisanery and electoralist oppurtinism.
I understand that Brown is eroding the credibility and popularity of Socialism in the UK.
Now: what kind of post-socialism pro-conservatism flavor will the Conservative Party of Cameron lead to?
Is the graphic accurate in that the ICM poll had the voting intention question as question 3? That is if true incredibly unusual is it not, isn’t it normally question 1?
To ask the voting intention question after what are 2 potentially leading questions (on the “bribe”) is normally bad form.
3.
Policy Exchange’s “Compassionate Conservatism” pamplet might be an indicator.
http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/images/libimages/170.pdf
“This suggests three broad principles of political action.
The first is one of freedom. It recognises that many interventions by the state are of necessity coercive, and others may be desirable. But it insists that indi- viduals,as citizens,should enjoy a default presumption for freedom and against state interference in their lives. The counterpart of this freedom is that individuals should take a greater degree of personal responsibility for their lives. After all,if the state is the means we use to pay for our
health,welfare and education,then we can expect it to take an interest in how we are doing.
The second principle is one of decentralisation. It pushes political
power and responsibility further down to individual citizens,saying that political decisions should where possible be taken close to the people they affect. In other words, those whom we have empowered to act must do so in plain sight,ideally from within a given community. That community will vary. Some decisions must be taken nationally, in defence for example. Some must be taken internationally,such as those governing trade and market access.But many more could and should be pushed down to the local level.
The third principle is one of accountability. It allows citizens to exer- cise their political will effectively by insisting that those in political power should be clearly accountable to the citizenry for their actions. This is to ensure better performance on pain of removal,and to main- tain the legitimacy not merely of our public elected offices but of a political system that places elected office at its core.
These principles underline the extent to which compassionate con-
servatism is about limiting state power, and preserving and extending our democracy.”
If the questions were asked in that order then it’s incredibly leading. It would be interesting to know what the results would have been if the order had been 3 2 4 1.
O/T
Putin: the Face of National-Socialism in Russia
Re: my predictions for C&N: here is a clue: B and R; same place twice.
5
–freedom
–decentralisation
–accountability
“limiting state power, and preserving and extending our democracy”
Wow! Love it.
3 Philippe Magnan: I understand that Brown is eroding the credibility and popularity of Socialism in the UK.
Now: what kind of post-socialism pro-conservatism flavor will the Conservative Party of Cameron lead to?
Philippe, please note that this is no criticism of you… in the first sentence quoted, there’s an assumption that Brown’s and New Labour have been and are socialist. Most socialists would argue all night with you that they have been and are. Yes, he’s thrown money at schools and hospitals, but he’s also respoinsible for things like in effect creating a tax haven in the UK for the vulture-like private investment partnerships, for example, and New Labour has been far more friendly to big business than the Tories ever were. At least some in the Conservative Party were able to understand business and finance matters and thus knew where regulation was needed.
But isn’t it the reality that politics has moved far beyond mere left and right, Conservative and Labour? Cameron’s “hug a hoody” comment is evocative of that. Dealing with delinquents, for example, is far more complicated than just throwing the book at them, which is the standard right wing thing to want to do.
8 Woops - I should have made it clear that I was meaning that most socialists would argue all night that Brown and New Labour are not socialist.
9
Being “friendly to big business” is socialistic: check Putin in Russia.
Conservatism is frriendly to every business — by caring about actual competitivity in the markets; Socialistic policies often create state-sponsored pseudo-private monopolies (public funding/private profiteering).
As for fighting crime in the domestic sphere: Conservatism can be very libertarian, like in the US, where right-wing Libertarian Nominee BOB BARR is actually advocating the legalization of drugs and on-line gambling (to which Edwards and Clinton opposed).
And in the US, Conservatives are advocating the right ot bear arms — which deprives the Police from having a dangerous monopoly on guns, like in every socialistic states.
Because Conservatism, as well as Socialism, comes in different flavors, I was wondering about the preferences of Cameron and his friends.
In this regard, post #5 was very helpful. Many thanks.
if labour can’t stop the toffs, how will the limps?
Take a look at the photograph heading this article:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/18/crewebyelection08.economy
and tell me - which one is Gordon Brown? I think they all are!
3 Philippe
Wake Up!! Brownstuff and NuLabour have absolutely nothing to do with socialism. They are a market-oriented alternative Tory Party. Whilst a few old-fashioned socialists may linger in the party most left, as I did, when it became clear that Blair was a Tory, and an authoritarian.
Democratic Socialism does not believe in elected dictatorship that ignores the will of the people. Hilda started that in the UK and Tony B Liar and Brownstuff have been willing converts to Hilda’s centralistic tendencies.
The closest government to Socialist in Europe is the one in Spain that was just re-elected to power.
Malcolm
Philippe (7), don’t be taken in. “Freedom, decentralisation and accountability” sound lovely, indeed they are lovely.
Previous Conservative Party governments were characterised by freedom for the rich and powerful; excessive ccentralisation and control; and lack of accountability.
Cameron’s project is all about image and presentation. There is no reason to think that the reality would be any different from that of previous Conservative governments.
So the NotW finds LibDems have lost one in four of their 2005 voters, eh? That would be a disastrous showing for them - though I expect they will be closer to their previous number come Friday morning (but not ahead of it).
PS What a nice change to see bar charts in their correct proportions!
PPS Given the 69% “no difference” presumably includes all those who were already committed to voting Tory/LibDem/other, the tax giveaway stunt has broken against Labour voters in the ratio 6:1. When this Government of all the Muppets can’t even bribe its core supporters without cocking it up, then it really is time to move on. Hint to Labour Bunker: don’t steal my pension and then offer me a little bit of it back a decade later - and expect me to be grateful!
Off to C&N to test the waters for myself. Report to follow….
14. whatever cameron is he is not a thatcher or a major. brown is a carbon copy of heath. so maybe you think cameron is the new macmillan or holme. the trots have a problem, as their crewe campaign illustrates. they have no idea how to characterise cameron.
the limps too.
16 Agree that the LibDems haven’t worked out how to characterise Cameron. Clegg uses PMQ’s to try and tag Cameron to Brown, as both being opposite sides of the same two-party coin - when what the people really want is a nice crisp banknote! In reality, the LibDems these days are as anachronistic as finding a half pence coin down the back of an old sofa!
“Oooh look, kids - they might look kinda funny to you, but once upon a time these things were everywhere….”
“Why did they get taken out of circulation, daddy?”
“Because individually, they were pointless; and even if you had lots of them, they still didn’t amount to anything.”
Forecast: We shall see a surge in the Cons figures to beyond 50 over the next 3 monnhs, Labour and the Lib Dems will be hammered in European Elections next year the 2010 election will be a 1997 in reverse, except the Lib Dems will hang on better than most would predict. Get your bets on now. Perhaps that could be a treble.
re 4. A very good point. I am 99% certain that the numbers linked to the questions in the NOTW graphic DO NOT reflect the order in which they were asked. ICM always ask the voting intention questions first.
Another in a long line of excellent threads by Mike.
Some of us suggested prior to the Mayoral election and locals that we were about to witness a sea-change in British politics. I think Thursday will seal it.
A few on here scoffed at the suggestion that the media narrative would completely change, but it has. We are now looking at the next Conservative Government in waiting, rather than an opposition. We all know that the writing is now on the wall. Labour’s decline is going to be messy.
I think the interesting thing to note though is that poll after poll is now putting Labour support below 30%. This has to be extremely worrying for them, especially with the Conservatives substantially above 40% consistently. It indicates that if an election were held soon Labour would go down to a substantial defeat.
21. Agreed. Long gone are the Labour people saying the Conservatives just can’t breach 40 and can therefore never win a majority. Indeed the margin I often look at is between Labour and the Lib Dems in all the recent polls. If that gets much small then they’re really in trouble.
As well as losing the centre, Zanu Labour are in the process of losing their core vote. They can go a lot lower than 26%.
23 - I don’t actually think they will. I think 26% probably represents their floor of support, in the same way that 31/32% represented the floor of Conservative support.
Where did it all go wrong…….?
For my money it’s all down to weakness indecision and a lack of conviction. Fatal flaws for a political Party. What’s the point in having a commission to look at cannabis classification and then ignoring its findings?
CGT was the start and probably Labour’s single biggest mistake. Limply following Osborne’s lead when they had the opportunity to explain why it was a fair tax was completely destabilizing. Since then this feebleness has been repeated so often that the public no longer believe Labour know what it’s doing or more importantly what its values are.
There is a template for recovery which is M+S. It could do worse than copying it’s strategy to the letter. Unfortunately for Brown this includes changing it’s MD. I noticed that Nick P has said the Parliamentary Party is generally happy with the leadership. If this is the case then they’re selling themselves short and I speak as someone who was generally supportive.
mike do we have the icm data to find out what the dont know adjustment was in the latest poll?
“The one viable strategy left, which will be played hard, is to go to Labour supporters to say that a Lib Dem vote is the only way of stopping the Tories.”
Oh please, oh please! Let it be true…
@24:
What basis do you have for making that claim?
We’ve seen no evidence yet of stickiness in Gordon’s bottom.
24.
Maybe, but I don’t think so. The blindly loyal core vote is based on the belief that the party is basically *on your side* despite any ups and downs over individual policies. Mass immigration has been slowly killing that belief among Labour people. It’s a very slow process melting that kind of glacier type loyalty but it’s there imo and I doubt it can be stopped now.
Could be wrong though.
25. Good to see you back Roger. I disagree, CGT was just a symptom rather than the cause. The fundamental issue is that Brown’s entire career is based on the Cunning Stunt. It was, perhaps, Blair who made him look good after all. Brown rode a fantastic wave in global fortunes and took all the credit but the reality is that he added no value what-so-ever. He has borrowed recklessly, spend incontinently and complicated everything he has touched to obscure the reality of that has been going on.
29 - Canvassing evidence from my area suggests that the blindingly loyal core vote will make the argument that “OK, our Labour government is screwing us over royally, but it would be a lot worse under anyone else”.
If I were a Labour backbencher and the most positive thing that I could say about any of these polls is that Labour look like they’re going to finish a bad second in a previously safe seat, that’s not good. But polls should be taken, not inhaled, and they shouldn’t be shaking anything or anyone to the core. The Labour party collectively needs to get a grip of itself - in other words, it needs to be led. Right now, it appears to have lost confidence in its leader. If so, it needs to find a leader that it will follow.
More evidence of the disintegration of Labour in this Times article, also mentions some incredible by-election tactics.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3953718.ece
@32:
But that’s tabloid footballthink. “If only we could find the right manager, each an every one of our massive, fundamental flaws would evaporate!”
Sometimes the leader is merely symptom. Have you considered that Labour may have exactly the leader they want and deserve?
re 26. Test - we don’t yet have the detailed ICM data but my guess is that the methodology would have been the same as the pioneering new approach that was used last week.
Also we have not seen the scale of any “spiral of silence adjustment” which, last week took the lead down from 12% to 4%.
33 - from the last paragraph, Shaun Woodward appears to have switched allegiances yet again. I wonder what the Labour hierarchy think of his actions?
36 - They are probably too busy knifing Brown to notice.
Well, if Philippe Magnan believes that Putin is a Socialist, he’ll believe anything.
On-thread, it’s extraordinary how similar “compassionate conservatism” looks to government policy - expecting people to take responsibility is surely just a posh way of referring to the kind of actions that are otherwise called the “nanny state” - and decentralisation is something that oppositions tend to love but which loses its charm when you’re in government. Would a Tory government really let local councils subsidise mosque-building programmes or operate racially discrimatory social housing access policies? No, of course it wouldn’t.
Yes, the Tories almost certainly will touch 50% in a post C&N poll. The question of where Labour’s floor might lie strikes me as a much harder call. 25%? 20%? 10%? I don’t think any of us know. All that seems clear is that Brown inherited a co-alition held together by Blair, not by Blairism. The electorate may want Blairism, and see Cameron as the man to deliver it.
One test of the strength of the Tories, as opposed to the weakness of Labour, might be membership figures. Are people joining the Conservatives to-day in the numbers in which they joined NuLab in the 1990s?
And finally, Q4 in the NoW poll is not actually good reading for the Tories. The “makes no difference” figure should be a lot higher than 10% if people have decided that they actually want the Tories in, as opposed to despising the present lot. And Brown will go. Unlike John Major, there’s no evidence that he has any relish for campaigning in the country and after Labour have lost Crewe by 6,000 votes or so the TU leaders will let him know what’s what.
34 - Labour may very well have exactly the leader they deserve (after all, he was appointed unopposed). All the smoke signals are that many of the upper echelons no longer want him, and we have already had an opinion poll suggesting that a clear majority of Labour supporters want him to resign.
Will replacing Gordon Brown solve most of Labour’s problems? Of course not - it wasn’t as though they were doing that well under Tony Blair, and it’s hardly as though Labour is brimming with charismatic, dynamic leaders in the wings. However, it is an essential first step, given the internal ferment that Labour is going through.
38. Very perceptive post IA.
I think your paragraph “All that seems clear is that Brown inherited a co-alition held together by Blair, not by Blairism. The electorate may want Blairism, and see Cameron as the man to deliver it” may have hit the nail on the head.
30. ToneyBaloney. Thanks for your welcome. Have you posted before or just changed your username?
On Betfair’s Party Leaders market there are four options extant.
Let’s get the two exotica out of the way first.
The two ‘exotica’ are BROWN ONLY and NONE.I have assigned between 4 and 5% to these options combined but will settle for 4% so as not to offend Tory Boys on here.So in other terms I think a fair price for either choice is around 50-1.
Now we are left with the only two realistic options…..Cameron Only and Brown/Cameron.
Reading these threads one gets the strong impression that the former should be favourite.This is not correct.The last traded price for Cameron Only was 2.52 and for Brown/Cameron 1.87.
Sadly the market is weak and flabby, but that in its turn creates the opportunity for someone other than me to step in and tellBetfair the way it is !
Mike’s tip of Brown to depart in 2008 at 6-1 and 5-1 was a cracker, because if he doesn’t go in 2008 then when ?
I do not like Cameron Only at 6-5 but some of you may disagree.
There is a hidden bonus for playing this market because some folk think that Ming is due a comeback !
Antifrank. Labour don’t need a charismatic leader. Someone saying what they mean and meaning what they say and being consistent would be quite enough. I notice from the Times link at 33 that focus groups have said Cameron most reminds them of a Foxton’s estate agent and there is something not quite right about him. At the moment I think Labour would settle for that!
Watched John Denham being interviewed this morning, he came over well. If GB were to, ‘fall on his sword’ given Denham’s position on Iraq etc. he’s a credible candidate for the top job: could be a decent bet.
Although being in a marginal seat might be a problem.
Amazing set of polls. Labour’s support does seem to be bottoming out at around 1/4 voters. But it COULD get worse. Not saying it will, but it could.
When the Tories were are their lowest ebb 1997/2004 they concentrated on shoring up their historic base by pandering to the right. It was seen as disastrous but it did stop UKIP becoming a major threat to the future of the party. It enabled a firm base of 30% to be retained and to be a rock to rebuild from.
Labour, on the other hand, have consistently chased the swing voter at the expense of their bedrock. The latest tax trick is another example of that. 1 MILLION core voters shafted for a by-election bribe (that will fail) is not the way the typical Labour voter wants his/her party to behave.
I’ve been looking at the Welsh local election results and going back over the 2007 NAW election and it is clear that Labour are losing both the top end of their vote to the Tories and the bottom end to ’screw you guys, I’m going home’ or Independents.
In constituencies that previously a profile would have said ‘Labour weigh their vote here, rather than count it’ I now have to write ‘Labour are under threat from apathy and independents’.
They hold TWO councils in Wales. Neath Port Talbot they hold 37/27 and Rhondda Cynon Taff 44/31. Even there they are not registering the one-party whitewashes they used to.
Wales is the legs of the Labour movement. The party is in danger of having its legs swept from under it at the same time as having its head cut off. Another six months of opinion polls like this and the party will have to consider a radical left-wing manifesto to shore up the base and establish a fall-back position. A tactical retreat in military terms.
just seen the Comres poll that must be even more alarming for Gordo than You Gov. I wonder if Dave will raise C&N on Wednesday PMQ’s . After all the jibes from Gordon about substance, the Labour campaign in the by election has been completely devoid of substance, and just full of bile.
As for Tamsin tallking to Gordo and making him change his mind over the 10p issue, its plainly laughable. How Labour can think that such a pathetic line would work is beyond me.
38 - It doesn’t say much for Brown that people think he’s so pathetic he won’t even try win a mandate for himself.
Where will he end up in the pantheon of PMs? Somewhere just above Neville Chamberlain?
I’m not at all surprised that Phillipe Magnan should be so interested in the prospect of “socialist” mismanagement inciting muslims in Europe to break into our homes and cut our throats because we weren’t intelligent enough to prescribe to the particular brand of “libertarianism”. The reason why I’m not surprised is that there is obviously nothing of note going on in his country. Reading his “interesting” questions (so cleverly designed to shake us out of our slumber) I found myself wondering 1)Who is the PM of Canada? 2)To which Party does s/he belong? 3)Are they lef/right/indifferent? 4)How many parties are there in the Canadian Parliament? 5)How many of these are dangerously socialist and hence pro-muslim immigration? 6)What are the prospects of the latter winning the next election?
I am totally ignorant on all of these questions whilst I realise, to my shame, that Phillipe can, owing to his superior knowledge, also advise on what I should be having for breakfast and how this could influence a muslim takeover of Europe (not too daft since I do most of my food shopping in a local Turkish supermarket).
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 41.6% .. Lab 28% .. LibDem 19.2% .. Others 11.2%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 362 seats .. Lab 208 .. LibDem 48 .. Others 32.
Con majority of 74.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED …Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
46 - The worst since Walpole, perhaps?
Where did it all go wrong? Events, cunning stunts, and attacks on Labour’s own supporters.
Even if we assume the government can do nothing about the credit crunch, nor undo Brown’s idiotic stunts that cost him his post-Blair goodwill, it can end its assaults on its own.
Stop the advertising campaigns that every day accuse Labour voters of being benefit thieves who don’t pay the tv licence or tax their cars. Scrap Balls’s plan raise the school leaving age, and Johnson’s to make it harder to see your doctor.
Drop however many days it is this week detention without trial, that will alienate muslim Labour voters while doing nothing for security. Forget about ID cards that send the civil libertarians back to Cameron (which will incidentally free up money for counter-cyclical spending).
In short, the government needs to remember whose side it is on.
How socialist has the Nulab govt been? Arguable—and it is argued on here, as a political betting site.
But it is unarguable that socialist govts tend to ‘cosy up’ to big business. They like big businesses and corporations (and the unions that go with them). 40 years ago, whenever the CBI (remember them?) agreed with the TUC, it was bad for the little man, and bad for small businesses and traders of all sorts. But good for a socialist govt—it gave them a measure of control.
However, because socialist govts know very little about business life, they are very poor at handling large companies. They have a seriously unhealthy relationship with the main destoyer of communities in this country—Tesco.
48 Jack , did you update your Arse for the millenuim bug? The Con majority is creeping ever closer towards 3 figures….
46. It depends how you judge these things. The worst since Thatcher?
[51] David, please list the legislation introduced from 1979 to 1997 which favoured small business at the expense of big business. You may find that the edge of a postage stamp is big enough.
I was unaware that Tesco have ever given any money to the Labour Party, but I’m willing to stand corrected.
53 - intriguing, do you assess Gordon Brown as worse than John Major?
Its difficult to assess these things but GB is probably similar to Ted Heath, men with good intentions, but they find it difficult to either inspire or convince.
55. To early to judge. I certainly thought John Major a better PM than Thatch.
52 MTF. I had to adjust the SOAMES weighting considerably after considerable rumbling from West Sussex !!
13. Labour are a crony capitalist party, not a free market party.
57. Cont…Major was the start of the healing process after the disaster that was Thatcherism. A role much underestimated in my opinion. Though Blair largely completed the process major’s contribution is too often ignored.
The Times article, Test, reports a view diametrically opposed to Nick Palmer’s last night.
““There has been a shift in mood,” said one MP. “Mutterings about regime change used to be confined to the fringes of the party, but now there is a more widespread view that Gordon will have to go unless he can win back public support.”
Thatcher will leave a historic legacy - unlike Brown AND Blair.
60 Roger you omit to mention that radical surgery was necessary in 1979 , painful it was, but absolutely necessary nevertheless.
Thatcherism wasn’t a disaster.
From the link at [33] - “Observers in Crewe say a glamorous outsider candidate could win enough votes in the by-election to have a significant impact on the outcome. Gemma Garrett, otherwise known as Miss Great Britain and candidate for the Beauties for Britain party, is said to have become a focus for disaffected Labour voters”.
On the one hand, please don’t let this be true - The Sun will never shut up about it and its influence in politics. On the other, it would be mightily funny to see her keep her come even close to third place.
The Guardian picture looks as if Brown is already in the dock with his harpies.
http://image.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2008/05/17/brown10a.jpg
46 David Roe. Surely not above Neville Chamberlain? NC was at least an honourable man.
I see that Guardian article is still supporting the Labour line describing Timson as a millionaire (because of his house?) but not mentioning the rather better off background and living quarters of Tamsin Dunwoody.
Pretty pathetic article compared to the Times.
65. I didn’t realise nose-picking was contagious.
45. LOL. Apathetic attempt to make him seem relatively youthful and happening?
63. Her reputation would be a good deal higher still though were it not for her third term. Some great work was done from 1979-87. 1987-90 weren’t her finest hours.
And a word in defence of Heath. Unlike Brown, he had political convictions and the courage to argue for them, and to win the arguments. He was dealt a very tough hand, and while he might not have played it very well, it was substantially better than that which Brown got last year - which he hasn’t played well either. Temperamentally, the two are / were very similar; both were too reserved and insufficiently people-friendly to make good PM’s. Heath also won an election no-one expected him to.
Jack W
Your ARSE is much admired by all but it does have a tendency to lean a little to the left. (Is this the side to which you dress?) Despite this, it suggests a Labour meltdwn.
Point is, if Your ARSE is predicting Labour 208 seats, there is a massive opportunity in selling them in the seats market with SPIN, which had them at 240 last time the maket was open.
All devotees of your ARSE, Jack, should grab the chance with both hands.
I remain astonished that Frank Field and the MSM have accepted this ‘compo package’. Those who lost out because of the 10p rate being abolished may have had their status quo restored. However, because everybody else has received the same award, they remain £120 worse off than other tax-payers as a consequence. Compensation? Maybe. Fair? Not at all.
From the Telegraph:
“The Government is staring at a corporation tax black hole of more than £10bn a year, as the pensions crisis ravages companies’ balance sheets, a leading investment authority has warned.”
Whoops. Really whoops after borrowing another 3 billion for party political purposes.
[54] Help for small business during the last tory govts? Firstly, SMEs don’t usually want specific help—they just don’t to be disadvantaged.
There was some help on planning (I benefitted in particular from circular 22/1980).
There were many exclusions from onerous (especially employment) legislation for companies which employed fewer than 5 people. That has been mostly (all?) scrapped.
But the big issue that has been ducked, is the way that more and more towns have been ‘hollowed-out’; become ‘clone’ towns.
When capital had too much power, it was right for the govt to sponsor trade union legislation. When the unions had too much power, we needed madam Thatcher.
When corporations have too much power (esp Tesco) we have, er, the govt giving them a leg-up….
72, the problem (one of them anyway) with the tax giveaway was that it’s mostly affecting those who didn’t lose out at all (17m taxpayers).
Three quarters of the money Brown has generously borrowed on our behalf is entirely unnecessary.
I had to laugh when Darling said they’d gone for this option because it was less complicated than other potential measures.
49 Walpole was actually a very effective Prime Minister (though a very nasty man).
72 - “because everybody else has received the same award” is a misconception, brought about by a misleading statement to the House of Commons.
Hansard, 14 May 2008, Column 1377:
“Mr. Clegg: The fact remains that under a Labour Government the worst paid are worse off. Why do they have to pay for the Prime Minister’s incompetence? They cannot wait any longer, so when will he come back to the House with specific proposals to compensate in full the 1 million people he has betrayed?
The Prime Minister: We have said that we will come back in the pre-Budget report, but the right hon. Gentleman must not forget the fact that every person in the country who is an income tax payer at the basic rate will receive £120. Twenty-two million people will receive that money, and households in which there are two such people will receive £240.”
EVERY PERSON IN THE COUNTRY WHO IS AN INCOME TAX PAYER AT THE BASIC RATE is, simply, a lie. There are millions of Old Age Pensioners who continue to pay tax on their occupational pensions at 20%. They will NOT receive a penny from this “largesse”.
Hope Nick P is telling all his OAP constituents that they don’t count.
46 David Roe. When I commented on Chamberlain, I had not read to the bottom of the page, so had not picked up Roger’s posts. Fortunately, however, his comments were as always meaningless and can be ignored.
[74] Ah, I see now - DK is a small retailer who’s losing out to Tesco.
He’s in favour of market competition - except when he’s uncompetitive, when of course that proves that the market’s rigged against him.
I do understand, David, I really do. Most of the self-employed people I know regard making provision for taxation, insurance and writing business plans as unreasonable socialistic impositions. All too often they remind me of a friend of my father’s, who told me that he became a pharmacist because there was a law against robbing banks.
71 PtP. The right cheek of ARSE is in full flow presently in stark contrast to the left which is somewhat numb as its piles of votes prevent a fuller extraction.
Whether this is a permanent affliction or a result of temporary disatisfaction regularly found mid bowel of most governments is the 6/-4d question.
As you indicate ARSE has highlighted an opening in the market. Punters may wish to take advantage before voter constipation sets in.
The trouble for Labour, as Mr Jones avers above, is that THE DAMAGE HAS BEEN DONE.
Mass immigration is the main reason core working class voters are hacked off with Labour. The Labour party deliberately quadrupled net migration, to unprecedented levels. This has impacted most on poor British communities, and depressed unskilled wages.
No wonder the chavs are revolting.
And there is not a lot Labour can do about it. Except buy a new bolt for the stable door, while the stallion goes cantering down the motorway. Changing the rules for immigrants now, after you just let in a couple of million, merely adds insult to injury.
Everyone knows that Labour did this; Labour get the blame. It may take a long time for Labour to win back the trust of core voters. Meanwhile voters turn to the Tories, who they instinctively trust on this issue.
What is amazing here is that Labour didn’t realise this would happen. You allow historically high immigration and you expect everything to be hunkydory? What were they thinking in Number 10?
It can certainly get worse. If we was to go into an actualy recession and Brown was still at the helm, I could see figures of;
Con 50+ Lab -19
Becoming a frequent occurance.
The markets dont reflect the potential Tory seats because the general view is that the Tories a 20 squillion percent lead to get a majority.
Whilst they do need a certain size of lead I have always considered some of the accepted maxims and also the likes of the seat calculators absolute bunkum.
As is usually the case, Labour will probably be losing the votes where they matter most, swing seats. Why anyone think Gordon didnt call an election, he took one look at the swing seat polling and realised theyd lose some seats despite riding high in headline polls.
I have few doubts the sheer size of Tory lead would not be relicated in a GE, there will be some fallback. In the current climate howevetr. wehen that fallback would occur to affect the markets, particularly seats, is anyones guess. There is still Tory upside on the spreads and thus Labour downsisde.
I suspect polls such as we are seeing now dont move the market as much because
a) people dont believe them (I don’t believe the Tories would havwe a 20% lead if there was a GE tomorrow)
b) Actual event move things more. So a comfortable Tory victory in C&N for example will filter through
I postulated this iodea a week or so back and have taken a bit on the spreads in anticipation but am already committed from a long way out on Tory win bets for the next GE.
61. Yes, if we ignore Nick’s complacent disinformation, it looks increasingly like the game is up for Brown.
And my bad typing continues…I’m off for a jog….
70. David - Heath didn’t win in 1970, Powell did.
Yokel @ 85. Download Firefox, install it’s English dictionary, problem solved!
Brown’s increasingly shrill whining and desperate attempt to portray himself as a victim will not play well with the voters IMO. If this is his last card then he’s clearly doomed.
“Gordon Brown has clashed with the BBC over claims that John Humphrys told him he gave him a “hard time” on the Today programme last week because of complaints by Tories……
…..In addition, BBC political editor Nick Robinson has responded to claims that he treated Mr Brown “with contempt” on Friday’s Today by calling him a “moody insomniac” and comparing him to tragic Tory Prime Minister Anthony Eden.
Mr Robinson said the comments came from unnamed Labour sources.
In a separate flare-up on Thursday, Mr Brown was alleged to have ripped his earpiece out after being interrogated on Sky TV about his U-turn over the 10p tax rate….”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=567056&in_page_id=1770
If Gordo can’t take the heat and is resorting to whinging and tantrums, then he knows what to do.
40
Roger I thought you were planning tn leave London if Boris won,have you now relocated?
[86] Presumably you would say the same of February 1974.
But of course it doesn’t check you’ve used the correct version of ‘its’
is this another front for Labour to attack the SNP?
From the Scotsman today:
“Elections watchdog Ron Gould revealed he is “not comfortable” with the view that all 129 MSPs elected last year actually received more votes than their opponents.”
And surprisingly enough the article seems to suggest most of the dubious wins were losses for Labour.
83. I’ve previously argued that the 1/2 on the Conservatives getting most seats (not necessarily a majority) at the next general election is the bet of the decade. The 1/2 will disappear when they will Crewe and Nantwich on Thursday, although could reappear when Brown goes and Labour get a new leader. I agree that they need a big percentage lead to get a majority, as we see the spread markets understating the majority compared to the current polls. I’m pretty long on the Conservatives myself but the prospect on them not even getting the most seats just seems so remote… Also the spreads, although indicating a majority of around 40, don’t seem to have too much downside (although the value went some weeks ago). I also agree that the Liberal Democrats are understated and there could be some value in buying their seats - again, low risk?
90. Yes, certainly.
81 I think they believed their own propganda. They really did believe that the mass of the population found diversity as exciting as they did - and because the only people they were communicating with on the subject were Guardian-types and the BBC, it became an intellectual closed loop. They could reassure themselves that the only people who objected to mass immigration were Conservative core voters, who they could ignore. At the same time, years of tight immigration controls up till 1997, had taken the heat out of the immigration issue, and it took several years for people to realise just how many people were being allowed to settle here.
And, now, Labour get beaten by the BNP in Ed Balls’ seat, and are close to running third in Dagenham & Rainham.
95. I’m sure there was an element of trying to ‘breed the Tories out’ as well, in Labour’s immigration strategy.
[79] IA is working in the state sector. I did work in the service sector—-in one of the few not harmed by Tesco. I made my money in tool hire (kendrick hire plc, sold to Speedyhire).
But I can see damage done to communities by certain companies, especially Tesco. If he needs it spelling out, I’m not the man …
Thatcherism saved the country from the death-grip of leftwing decline.
She reformed the economy, drastically reduced taxes, gave housing back to the people, resolved the union problems, burned out the cancer of socialism, slimmed down the sufocating aparratus of the state, reduced immigration to a proper level, and she turned the City of London into the powerhouse it is today.
During her elevenses she defeated a proper fascist junta, restoring democracy to Argentina; when she knocked off work she decided to win the Cold War, alongside Ronnie Reagan - just for a bit of fun.
For comparison, Labour invaded a foreign country illegally, killing half a million, and betrayed its most solemn promise to the people on an EU referendum. Labour are a plague carrying rat-flea next to the mighty lioness that was Maggie.
The reason sad old lefties like Roger hate Thatch is because she is so titanically superior to anything the left has produced since Atlee, and probably before that. And they know it. And they hate it.
Heh.
86. Amongst other things, the 1970 government delivered membership of the EEC, the Sunningdale agreement, a dash-for-growth followed by a U-turn to state intervention and regulation, and the nationalisation of Rolls-Royce, so I’m not absolutely convinced that Powell would have regarded that as a ‘win’.
If one person bears any more credit / responsibility for the 1970 election result than any other, it would be better to look to the Labour benches. As it is now.
david kendrick-Were you living in Ipswich circa 1975-76 ? If so we know each other !
Well, I agree the polls are rotten for Labour. Purely for the sake of balance, note that Cameron’s personal ratings remain low on everything except charisma, and that a 12% swing in a mid-term by-election, if that’s what it turns out to be, is an excellent result for the Opposition, but far from unique. I’ll be surprised if there’s a huge rise in the Tory C&N vote over the GE - the issue, as shown in numerous polls, is Labour supporters’ readiness to vote.
On that, incidentally, quite a few of the potential abstainers who I phoned told me that they saw it as a protest vote and would probably come back at the GE. That, of course, will then be only of interest in C&N itself.
Oh, witan - I simply denied there is plotting under way to remove GB. The Times report doesn’t say there is - it predicts it at an unspecified time in the future on the basis of some unnamed sources. That’s fairly standard - if a party is in difficulty, you can always find people to say this sort of thing.
Incidentlaly, the discussion we had the other day on my amendment on Tuesday and related issues is touched on here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2008/may/18/stemcells.medicalresearch
Overnight delegate update from over the pond - Obama +5 Clinton -2.
Three SD’s and two cross over pledged delegates from Hillary.
81. Yup. The damage has been done but there’s a big time delay between people deciding Labour isn’t on their side any more and actually voting for someone else. Took me 8 years for example. London is at the head of that wave for obvious reasons.
The problem for Labour with a “core vote” strategy now is it can’t work anymore except in a few areas. The immigrants are in direct competition for resources with the native working class so even if local councils were even handed the locals still resent having to share the same slice of pie with a greater number of people.
So basically they’ve driven a wedge into their core vote and can’t keep both chunks happy whatever they do. If they switched back to being on the side of the natives they’ll lose both the immigrants to parties like Respect and the leftie middle class. So they’re stuffed imo.
101. Not entirely true that Cammo’s personal ratings remain low.
According to a magazine poll, nearly two thirds of British women aged 25-45 agreed they would like to marry the Tory leader, and thought he would be “good in bed”.
Meanwhile, the same poll found that 61% of the same women would like to “push Gordon Brown off a cliff”.
I’m not joking, read it here:
http://tinyurl.com/6zr26d
More interesting quotes from the survey:
“The magazine said women aged 25 to 45 are the largest group of floating voters in the UK, and are becoming more politicised, with 91 per cent of those polled intending to vote in the next General Election, compared to 64 per cent last time.
The poll found women look for the same qualities in a Prime Minister as a partner or friend, including having strong morals and a sense of humour.”
i.e. Women like Cammo, they despise Brown. There’s another problem for you.
101 Nick, have you tried whistling to keep your spirits up?
99. Indeed Powell became bitterly opposed to Heath for all the reasons you state - and more such as the ridiculous attempt to dictate by legislation all prices and wages. Hence his determined and successful effort to get rid of Heath in 1974.
Both Heath’s government and the succeeding Labour government did deliver tighter immigration controls, though - a testament to how potent an issue race had become and the effectiveness of Powell’s campaigns on the subject.
106 When that legislation was introduced, Powell asked Heath at PMQ’s whether “the Right Honourable Genetleman has taken leave of his senses?”.
44 What may the results be leading you to predict there at the election
SeanT - Thatcher obviously achieved a lot of her objectives but to pretend that she left a gleaming utopia is wide of the mark. She did little to help communities devastated by the closure of coal mines and instead seemed to take great delight in their misery.
And you overestimate the axe she took to the state. Total managed spending fell from 44.8% of GDP in 1979-80 to 40% in 1990-91, and the figures were up to 42.3% and then 44.2% the following years. The average during her time in office was 44.7%. Hardly massive cuts. Also this is made to look worse given the privatisation that took place, meaning the state was doing less.
101 Nick Palmer you say you “maintain that there is no significant plotting against GB.”
The Times says, as quoted above, “Mutterings about regime change used to be confined to the fringes of the party, but now there is a more widespread view that Gordon will have to go…”
There may be a difference there based on your definition of ‘plotting’ but not much. Casuistry is indeed an art.
Ed Miliband getting a caning off Boulton on sky right now.
101. Nick - thanks for the comments and the post. Unlike some others, I genuinely believe you when you say that there aren’t moves underway to get rid of Brown. There would be if the Tory Party was in power and presiding over a situation like this, but (a) it’s still not guarenteed that it would come to anything and (b) Labour isn’t the Tory Party.
You’re right about Cameron - the public isn’t prepared to give him a blank cheque and is more wary about him than it was about Blair, in a similar situation. That’s fair. In many ways, I wouldn’t want Cameron to have the kind of adulation that Blair got in the early years; it only leads to tears later on. It could guard against overconfidence as well.
Even so, I’m reassessing my opinion that a workable overall Conservative majority is too big an ask. It is still huge - considerably over 100 net gains; similar to what Blair achieved in 1997 - but not now out of the question. Once the polls start showing a party in the mid-40s, that to me indicates that either the public has bought into them sufficiently to matter in the marginals, or that there is enough discontent with the other that they’re prepared to countenance the alternative to get rid of the first lot. Labour looks to have dropped through the 30% barrier and doesn’t yet have a workable strategy to get back above it, never mind to reach the mid-30s that is the minimum required.
As was noted earlier, it could still get worse for Brown. The government finances are looking very ropey. The government was already borrowing far more than it should have been, and what vestiges of ‘prudence’ remained have gone out of the window with the 10p changes. There is now the unpalatable option of reassessing the BoE’s inflation target (which will undo for all practical purposes the independence which is Brown’s one remaining success in delivering change), or accepting interest rates high enough to slow down the economy significantly and get inflation back under control.
Its interesting to compare post-Thatcher Major with post-Blair Brown….
Major did a lot of ‘healing’ while at the same time consolidating the Thatcher reforms - had he lost in ‘92, then a still-Socialist Labour Party would have undone a lot of work and we’d all be a lot worse off. Unfortunately for Major he also inherited a post-regicidal Parliamentary party still, in the words of the historian Richard Vinen, behaving ‘like a deranged seance’….’can you hear us Margaret….are you there? In the end they imploded.
Now Brown - what exactly has he inherited from Blair? Blair maintained the Thatcher settlement - just spent more money on public services - and had reform of them blocked by Brown. Much of the economies management - and some mis-management (house price bubble, pensions)can be laid at Brown’s door. Then there is Iraq. In Brown’s favour, his Parliamentary party, so far, seems a lot better disciplined than Major’s Tories.
Net, Major helped protect and consolidate the legacy of a great PM. Brown has followed a pygmy….and is making things worse. He has the ‘long-term vision’ thing (child poverty) - but thats not going to make a difference for 20 years - its the short term tactical stuff he fumbles - and badly. While personality wise he may be similar to Heath - Heath, for better, or worse, took us into Europe. What will Brown’s claim on history be?
109 - http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn43.pdf
101: ‘I simply denied there is plotting under way to remove GB’.
Nick, it is unlikely in the extreme that there isn’t any plotting to get rid of Brown even if it’s only being conducted by the likes of Charles Clarke. You are plainly out of that loop (which isn’t a bad thing).
Give it some time though and MPs who thought they would hold their seats at a GE and now look like they won’t will start getting restless.
Q4 is a bit odd. The Yes/ No/akes no difference I can understand but “other”? “Don’t know/Don’t care” would amke sense but I’m at a loss to dream up all that many alternative responses could fit under “other” for such a straight-forward question
112 - do you think the difference in public opinion re blar/cameron at what look like similar stages in the lifetime of a government/opposition is because of Blair rather than Cameron per se? i.e. Blair had an almost unprecedented situation when he was swept into Downing Street and people really bought into what he was saying. Maybe the situation now is that people feel that trust was misplaced and aren’t prepared to show that sort of support again, and that cynicism with politics in general has increased markedly since 1994-5
95. “I think they believed their own propganda. They really did believe that the mass of the population found diversity as exciting as they did - and because the only people they were communicating with on the subject were Guardian-types and the BBC, it became an intellectual closed loop.”
That’s pretty much it exactly. Any objections were assumed to be racism and ignored. They’re not dependent on things like cheap housing themselves so they didn’t realise how much grief they were causing.
Tesco sponsored the Millenium Dome learing zone.
Rumour (lawyers note I said rumour!!) has it that the big supermarkets were told that if one of them came up with a decent sponsorship deal the car parking tax proposals would be punted into the long grass.
Tesco took one for the team.
118. I imagine the ability to get cheap nannies and gardeners was assumed to a be benefit the whole population could share in as well.
117. Yes, that’s very much what I think. I can’t see any politician being given such an uncritical ride for so long, for many years to come. Too many people feel betrayed (rightly or wrongly) by what Blair did or didn’t do.
I don’t think anyone will buy into a politician the way they did with Blair for a generation with that let down still lingering in the memory. It is far better for people to have a lower expectation and for it to be exceeded rather than Blair’s massive expectation which led to let down and massive disappointment.
These polls illustrate the power of the media and how Brown has seriously balls up his relationship with the 4th estate. The media called it a “bribe” and as if by magic 59% of people think it’s a “bribe”. As such follow up questions are predictable, who in their right mind would ever own up to being bribed?
Goes to show Gordon’s first job should be to mend broken bridges he demonished during the election that never was. Labour will get nowhere with such a hostile press. Probably too late. Cameron is a media darling.
119: Wouldn’t they just have got Labour’s favourite supermarket to do it?
66 - Honour doesn’t really excuse sleepwalking unprepared into a second world war. In fact, his sense of honour and misplaced attributing it to fascist dictators was one of his biggest weaknesses, sadly.
[100] Yes, URW. I did live in Ipswich in the mid 1970s.
123: Or, Jonathan, perhaps people off their own bat can see that a party in political difficulties offering millions of people money just before a by election it looks like they might lose as a bribe?
Has anyone seen actual evidence that Labour have tried to smear Timpson as a ‘friend of P.D. O’File.’ I wasn’t wholly convinced by the Sundry Trends article, but if the link was made then I will fully understand Brown’s moral compasss is haywire.
Does the poll date break down by age?
104 It’s good to know the destiny of the Nation sits on such weighty matters.
127 Perhaps, but the bigger point is that Brown will never get anywhere with the papers gunning for him like this. They smell blood and a way to sell papers. I suspect this is now unreversable, but what do I know.
Surely you can agree that if the press, who had demanded a 10p fix, had splashed it as a “good” thing it would have had an effect on the polls.
un=ir
123. I don’t think McBean has a chance of making things up with the media now. Everyone’s getting that “Lord of the Flies” buzz and he’s Piggy.
Have been away so a bit behind, but just noticed this from Mike yesterday.
“7. Labour did exactly the same to the Lib Dem candidate in Hartlepool in September 2004. She was a lawyer and they dug up cuttings of a case where she had defended a drug addict. We then saw a leaflet - the Lib Dem candidate “speaking up for junkies”.
Why haven’t the Tories done serious attack research on Tasmin Dunwoody? There must have been things during her time in Wales that can be blown up.”
Er Mike. Unless you hadn’t noticed the Tories are by all accounts WINNING this campaign. It seems a bit ridiculous to implicitly criticise their campaign for not going negative! You seem to be under the view that there is only ever one way to fight a campaign (ie. down dirty, negative and “anything goes” as long as you can get away with it). As JohnO said, “spoken like a true LibDem”.
123. The media is following, not leading, public opinion. They said it was a bribe because it looked like one. Millions of people up and down the country will have come to the same conclusion without needing (or reading) the papers.
Looking to mend relations with the media and hoping that popularity will then follow is getting things back to front (but is exactly how Brown likes to work - cut the deal behind closed doors). Get the popularity right and the press will come onside.
108 - I’m only halfway through my work on the subject and I am inclined to think Labour will still win most of the seats but a hell of a lot will be marginal. I’m wondering if Paul Murphy could face a strong independent challenge in the wildcard of the election. But chances are Labour will be having to actively defend in seats like Gower and Bridgend. I think they might hold both but Labour’s weakening membership and having to defend previously safe seats will spread their resources to the point that they might have to tacitly abandon the seats currently marginal.
I’m wondering if the financial constraints Labour are suffering might mean an electoral Hindenburg line having to be placed roughly at 250 seats.
134 Come on, Brown was dammed if he did nothing and dammed if he did something.
My tally for Crewe and Nantwich result is:
Cons 52%
Lab 33%
Lib Dem 11%
Others 4%
I base this on the desire for Change. People at the moment are looking to polarise around the alternative in their area to the Governnment.
Are we having a competition on the result?
136 - of course he was. He was damned from the moment he introduced the 10p reform in the first place. Some holes of your own making you just can’t get out of.
136 - Good, isn’t it.
139 Never been into schadenfreude myself.
All this reminds me too much of a marriage on the rocks. Not nice. It’s the kids (activists) I feel most sorry for.
135 I’m not surprised you think they might hold half the seats in Wales! TBH on Gower/Bridgend I agree with Morus. The Tories will focus on Gower far more heavily than Bridgend. the 2007/2008 results clearly show Gower their better bet. They will focus on that, not divide their resources with Bridgend in West Wales and that in turn will give them a better chance. Any other seats you are thinking as interesting. Montgomeryshire, Swansea West etc
136. Yes, perhaps so - but then he put himself in that position in the first place by buying seven minutes of good coverage after the 2007 budget. At £2.7bn, surely the most expensive few minutes ever?
But it is still the case that the media is going for Brown because he is unpopular, not that he is unpopular because the media is going for him. I know the two are self-reinforcing, but the popularity is the key to the relationship.
And that unpopularity has to do with much more than the 10p issue - though that has crystallised matters. It is the tinkering, the dithering, the refusal to accept responsibility, the misleading, the bad spin, the whole impression that Brown sees it as nothing more than a game. On top of that, there’s the residual resentment from Blair’s premiership, especially the misuse of many of these same things to launch the disasterous war in Iraq.
140 - I feel the genuine pain and suffering you must have felt when Dave had his problems on grammar schools.
Jaysus, apparently wee Onions Garrett has been given tips on running her C&N campaign by none other than Sean Woodward…
More interestingly the ST reports that one way of getting rid of Brown, if desired, would a be a series of attacks paving the way for the grey suits to turn up.
Sounds kind of similar to ideas posutlated by by a few including myself on here though my own focus was on parliamentary rebellions as a key tool.
If Labour won C&N mind you it’d all be different, at least for a month or two.
136. Perhaps Brown was damned because he had been warned that his budget would make this issue blow up, but he chose to ignore such criticism. He had plenty of time both as Chancellor and PM to difuse the issue, yet denied that it had caused friction.
As for trying to ‘repay’ OAPs through the winter fuel allowasnce and the lowest paid via the minimum wage, Brown couldn’t have found a more complex solution if he tried. Why was he not more open about why adjustment to the tax codes was not considered to be a suitable way to compensate the losers.
118
Agree very widespread consequences from their policy of mass immigration,often with unintended consequences,for example the minimum wage intended as a floor but now a ceiling.
140. “All this reminds me too much of a marriage on the rocks.” And therein lies the problem. New Labour wanted to be loved. Not just liked, not just respected, but loved. And to a fair old distance, they were.
And as with all love affairs, the passion wears off after a while and the hope is that enough mutual respect and friendship remains that the love moves on to a deeper stage. If it doesn’t, all the negative emotions start coming out. That’s what’s happening now. To some extent, Labour’s been dumped and Cameron is being backed ‘on the rebound’. If he has any political sense, he will not seek to be loved, but to be liked and respected; that’s as much as any politician should ask for - and being respected should come before being liked.
130: If someone creates a mess they don’t get rewarded for clearing it up.
If the media was really ‘gunning’ for Brown they would be pointing out, amongst other things, why he cut the 10p rate in the first place, to give middle class voters a tax cut before he took over and called an election.
140. Perhaps those activists might consider finding something more worthwhile to do with their time.
12. Fantastic, if you read the article, you see just how screwed up the Labour Party are. They have a serious problem with an alienated white working class core vote, so what do they do???
“Harriet Harman will tomorrow outline plans to get more black and Asian women involved in public life, highlighting the government’s progressive, pro-equality credentials. She will argue that only 1 per cent of councillors nationwide are ethnic minority females, launching a task force to find more, and publish a report outlining plans for all-black shortlists in Westminster seats”
Truly amazing.
The last week has been momentous for Brown. He has torn up his reputation for prudence by attempting to bribe his way out of trouble. He has put all his cards on the table by declaring all his future policy plans in the draft Queen’s speech statement. He has sat on the TV sofas and rode the airwaves in a futile attempt to defend and promote his ailing premiership. And all this days before the C and N by election, where the public gets a chance to give their view on his premiership.
I have used this analogy before but I think it’s apt and therefore worth reusing. In p*ker terms he has gone all in. He has bet his premiership in the last week on the outcome of the C and N by election. I would now go so far as to say he is a shade of odds on to be gone this year.
150. This is the core vote strategy, it seems. Relying entirely on the votes of ethnic minorities, as Livingstone did in London. It might work in a few areas of very dense BME population, but nationwide it is a catastrophe - Labour look increasingly like a ‘foreign’ party. Long may these insane tactics continue.
135 Not sure that analogy works as the Hindenburg line was breached in October 1918.
Reposted from old topic:
What a bunch of whiners you conservatives are. Real wimps
I agree with Smithson, serious politics is dirty, freedom of speech (to say whatever you want, true or false) should be sacrosanct in elections if in nothing else. If you’re candidate can’t deal with what is said about him then he doesn’t deserve to represent us in parliament.
If the Labour campaign really is so dirty and shameful and as pathetic as you claim your candidate should have no trouble countering it and even using it to turn the tables, ie turn it against Labour.
Sorry, this isn’t the public school debating society, no ’sirs’ or tea and biscuits here, daddy’s not here to protect you any more, you have to be tough to win, toughen up
152. You might think that getting rid of postal vote on demand would do a better job for empowering minorty females, then at least a good number of the muslim ones might be able to exercise their right to vote instead of their husband doing it on their behalf.
146 People like Crosland and Wilson in the Sixties were far more sharply attuned to the political damage Labour could suffer, if immigration were to get out of control. Even quite left-wing MPs accepted this, then.
150 Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.
can’t help but think if Brown shut up and stayed out of sight things might improve for NuLab.
I did notice his excoriating the Burma situation - which probably means the local population will rally to the generals.
I also can’t help but think that GB praising 60 years of Israel and finsihing with ” Shalom” is not about to help Labour with its Moslem voters…..
Full ICM numbers are just out
General Election voting intention in crewe is:
Conservative 49%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrat 15%
Other 3%
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2008_may_mos_crewe_poll.pdf
150 If the Guardian is quoting from my article, it would be nice if they were to attribute it to me.
Full ICM numbers are out
General Election voting intention in C&N is:
Con 49%
Lab 33%
Lib 15%
Oth 03%
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2008_may_mos_crewe_poll.pdf
I also feel that it is now essential for the nation that Brown steps aside. We are in a period of global and national economic uncertainty and there is a complete lack of confidence in the leadership of our country. This is not acceptable and should not be allowed to continue.
154 - Have you not considered that all the “whining” is the Conservatives “countering it and turning the tables”? Seems pretty successful so far!
156. Yes, but back then Labour was still vaguely in touch with the concerns of working class people - rather than being the party of a narrow snobbish metropolitan elite which despises such people, which is what it has become.
154.
As you will see by the above polls, the Conservatives have no need to ‘counteract’ Labour’s dirty and slanderous tricks. They are simply giving Labour enough rope to hang themselves and leaving them to it. They certainly don’t need to dredge up ‘dirt’ on Dunwoody as has been suggested. The idea that shameless campaigning based upon the use of lies, smears and crass class based slurs should be automatic in an election is ridiculous but evidentially quite typical of the left.
162 - If that’s anywhere near being replicated at the general than its astounding! Near-enough 50% of the vote in our 165th target… that’d be phenomenal!
…it being a by-election though I’m still cautious, I’ll wait till I’m down to Crewe on Wednesday before getting my hopes up
125 David Roe.I was not making excuses for NC total misjudgment.Just pointing the difference from Brown’s lying and self-deception, not attributes we can afford in a Prime Minister.It just so happens that NC had a far bigger problem to deal with at the time and it killed him.
98. SeanT. Your Thatcher eulogy is even funnier than your ‘revolting chavs’
165 I’m sure most Labour MPs don’t despise such voters, but they’ve certainly paid far too much intention to the Harriet Harmans of this World, who think that identity politics will win elections for them.
166
Labour will hang themselves on the economy. Period.
The £10billion black hole due to pensions..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/18/cntax118.xm
The 30% slowdown in sales of houses affecting stamp duty receipts .
And retail sales flattening out (altho a friend in Debenhams recorded record menswear sales over the past 4 days - 40% up on last year)..
When Darling does his sums and Gov’t borrowing soars stand by for a tax rise in 2009 will will really screw their image up.
141 - I’d be surprised if Montgomeryshire moved from the Liberal column and inclined to think Labour will hold Swansea West. The great unknown is how big Alan Williams’ personal vote is. Having been in for so long most electors will never have voted for anyone else at a general election!
I think Labour will probably hold Gower too. Byron Davies managed a 10 per cent swing in 2007 but 2007 was not a good election night for Labour and he still didn’t win the seat. It’s a good plan for him to be selected to fight the general election but can he manage an 8/9 per cent swing at a general election? I’m not sure he can. But the 2007/08 results certainly point to it being a better bet for the Tories than Bridgend.
171 - “The 30% slowdown in sales of houses affecting stamp duty receipts”
Darling will have an easy answer. Lower stamp duty thresholds!
170. The irony is, that this kind of ‘identity politics’ is soooo last century, the politics of the Clintons and Livinstones of this world. Stuff enough public money down the gullets of different groups, and you can rely on their support for ever…..
170.
At the councill level in London there’s a few that seem to hate the WWC but mostly it’s just hippy dippy multi-cultists who blind themselves to reality.
A bit before my time but I wouldn’t be surprised if some of it originally was Trot entryists using the immigrant population to build up a constituency for themselves against the original local Labour heirarchy. A bit like what’s happening now with Respect.
As far as I’m concerned policy is secondary in this by-election. The necessary outcome, however, is for labour to be destroyed in it, purely because of the tactics they are employing; and yes I do mean destroyed, kept out of power until they realise how much they have shamed themselves.
If politicians get so much as a glimpse of these tactics being effective they will try it again and again and we will be perpetually treated as the imbeciles that they hope we are, that goes for the other parties too who have also been guilty at other times (B&C, Cheadle etc.)
Rove has helped greatly in causing the downfall of US politics, such that it is now seen as separate to the needs of their people, if these tactics succeed in wresting politics from the needs of the British people then we are in for a vicious battle to get it back.
They are attempting to win by ignoring the electorate and through lying about personalities and erecting false divisions of ‘values’ (ring a bell?). At a time when US politics is being energised by two candidates who have said they will fight against this we must elect people who promise to do the same and who practice what they preach.
Of course Labour’s share can go below 25%.
Aside from supporters switching, 35% of the electorate dont vote. If these people decide to vote, Labour’s share will fall.
111 - I think it’s rotten to send little Milliband Minor up against a professional thug like Boulton. Gordon should be done for cruelty to children.
154 - You agree with that and you are no better than the dregs of the lowest level of society. It’s people with your attitude (supposed swingvoter) who need to be taken on and defeated.
This is not about tories FFS, stop hiding behind that partisan bile, it’s about decency and politics being for people not against them. Get a grip and a sense of morality before you attempt to drag people down to your gutter level agaian.
175 I would say that contempt for such voters is likely to be found more among national and local bureaucracies, and people running quangos, than among the politicians.
174 If Harriet Harman’s proposals are anything to go by, Labour will draw precisely the wrong lesson from London’s election. The wrong lesson is that Labour did better in London than in the rest of the country, so Labour should offer even more identity politics. The right lesson is that if identity politics don’t work, even in London, they certainly won’t work in any other part of the country.
167 & 171. Yep - the economy has done for Labour. Even though it will be a bit stronger by the time of the next election in 2010 (presumably Miliband v Cameron) the polls suggest such a deep distaste for Labour that it’s just not possible to see how the Cons can’t win the most seats. Look at what’s happening in C&N - at worst this should be a close contest. If that happens in even half of other similar seats……
177 - not necessarily. Turnout is currently lower among Labour supporters. An increase in turnout will probably mean the stay at home Labour supporters bother to vote.
UkPaul. If calling your opponent ‘a toff’ is as bad as it gets then I think your post at 179 is a serious over reaction!
180. If Harriet Harman’s proposals are anything to go by, Labour will draw precisely the wrong lesson from London’s election
Good, isn’t it?
172 I suspect it will be substantial. Also remember it is the intellectual type seat that shifted away from Labour in 2005. Unless by some miracle they drift back Labour will be under serious pressure there I think. Also despite some hiccups the LDs actually advanced in Swansea on the 1st. That is not a good sign for Labour. As Labour will also be defending the Gower this will throw up some acute dilemmas for resources. As for Gower it’s very hard and yet the Tories also performed well there on the 1st. True 2007 was not a good year but if anything 2008 made it look Ok! It’s a mighty ask and predicated on huge turnout in the Gower peninsular itself. The fact though we are even seriously talking about the possibiity says a lot.
Looking at the M4 corridor as a whole it resembles a serious problem for Labour. What is your thinking on Cardiff and Newport perhaps.
153 - I’m not saying it can’t be breached. I’m saying it might be the best plan they have. The resources at Labour’s hands are at their lowest in many years.
180 How many seats South of the Wash excl London do you think Labour will hold at the election.
183 - That’s the smallest part, paedophile slurs, posing as the opposition when calling voters etc etc. It’s part of a clear plan and one which bears no relation to the needs of voters.
Destruction is the only way, with a cancer you have to catch it early and be thorough, no half measures. I sincerely hope it’s not too late though.
I have said here the tipping point was the election that never was that exposed Brown’s political calculation, weaknesses, cowardice all in one golden period for the Tories.
Some of the more astute posters here said that the moment was reminscent to the Tory Black Wednesday- takes about 6 months or before the full impact is seen in the polls.
Brown’s dire leadership has led Labour into a position where the next election is already out of reach.
Brown must walk after the by election in Crewe though, not to save Labour’s 2010 hopes which are already lost, but because it is just unbearable having such a pathetic PM in this country.
123 Jonathon, GB has certainly upset Adam Boulton on Sky news by not telling him first.
Boulton is getting angrier and fatter by the hour, think he will explode before the GE in 2010.
189. Amen
179- ukPaully- a tad harsh comrade.
The personal stuff thrown against Brown and NuLab that you see on this site relentlessly, remorselessly (me included)- and all Labour are doing is calling the guy a toff.
187 - Labour are quite likely to hold Reading West. Their results in Reading East in the locals were awful, but they did creditably in Reading West. I would also expect Labour to hold Dover, and Denham should hang on too. Perhaps a seat in Bristol?
192 - I wasn’t thinking about the toff thing, that’s just boneheaded, it’s things such as the appalling leaflets, the attempt to say that lawyers are evil if they defend certain clients and so on. That goes beyond a ‘bit of fun’ and into the area of the vicious.
188 183
I do not defend negative campaigning but it’s entirely legal and frankly it’s in the category of “handbags at dawn ” in this case.
And it is self defeating as it’s clearly inappropriate and better.. the media are switched off Labour - presumably because Gordon tells porkies and obvious porkies.. on TV.
The man and his actions are indefensible.
If Conservative posters had any deviousness and cunning, they’d shut up about Labour’s tactics and let them shoot themselves in both feet, both legs the arms and body. Leave the head because it’s gone mad.
151/189. Tyson. Anyone that disagrees with us that Brown will be forced out after C and N should take the 4/6 now available with vc.bet that Brown is still Labour leader at the next election. 4/6!!! That’s a leading bookmaker’s view on the weakness of his position. They lay 11/10 that he will be gone before the election.
Compared with the Conservatives Black Wendesday I stil feel that Labour have still not reached that point, Im happy they are in a mess but feel there still lacks that killer political blow?
193.187. I think all bets are off regarding how many Labour can lose now.
189 Indeed. Jack Straw would not save Labour’s hopes for 2010 but he may just for 2014 or 2015.
189 - yes, tipping points are interesting. I felt the moment when it became clear Ming could not lead was when CK went on paternity level during the 2005 campaign. From IDS the tipping point was birth.
Give Brown credit as the tipping point was actually after he became leader!
195 - But it shouldn’t stop the rest of us who don’t really have a dog in this fight from complaining.
paternity level - I mean paternity leave!
A quick note to correct an error I made yesterday. I said that any Senatorial vacancy in Massachusetts would be filled by the Governor until a special election. I’ve looked into it and Massachusetts is one of only 3 states not to do this (the others being Wisconsin and Oregon). Instead the vacancy will remain until a special election. I could not find out whether this could be soon or in November. The law was changed in 2004 when Kerry was running for President and Romney was Governor. Democrats in the state houses didn’t want him to appoint a Republican. Thankfully it looks like Kennedy is going to be ok, so this is by-the-by but just wanted to set the record straight.
196. 11/10 on Brown being gone before the next general election is excellent value. I would have it the other way round: 4/6 gone before general election, 11/10 still leader at next election! However, I prefer to continue to build my position on the Cons winning most seats….
Re: Timpson Toff, C&N
If he’s not “the friend of a paedophile” what is the problem? Let the facts speak for themselves, if it’s a complete lie, go out and say that and use it to destroy Labour in Crewe and destroy the Dunwoody brand name for good.
The problem with this Tory is he wants to run a ‘nice’, ‘respectable’, ‘easy’ campaign, he doesn’t want to get his hands dirty.
He wants something (to be one of the 600-odd individuals who decide on our country’s future) without having to fight for it. He’s already priveleged and he wants a position of even greater privelege… but without putting any effort in, having done nothing more than jumped on the Tory bandwagon at the right time and right place.
People don’t care that his father was a millionaire, but what we do want is to see what our representatives are made of. There’s nothing wrong with having a rich daddy or even believing you have the divine right to rule as long as you can show that you deserve it. That starts with showing that you’re willing to stand up for yourself, take a few blows and optionally send a few back.
193 They held Bristol South even in 1983 so I should think so. Bristol East should also be a banker barring total melt. As for Bristol West no way ultra safe LD hold. Bristol NW well their MP has chickened out after the biundary shift. Straight LD-Tory fight.
As for Reading West it would be hugely surprising if Salter held against a tide half as strong at moment. Look at the electoral map it’s surrounded by Tory seats with gigantic majorities. It’ll probably be hit by half the Conservative activists in the South at some point.
193. I think Daover would be a struggle on these sort of figures. It’s about 90th on the target list
204 - Because then you fight on their terms and those terms are ones which elide over policy and what is happening in the voter’s lives. To respond in kind is to concede the ground.
185 - I think Labour can forget Cardiff North and Central. The Sully electoral division moving into Cardiff South helps the Tories but not by enough to really make Alun Michael sweat. I expect Labour to therefore retain two Cardiff seats
I think we have to remember that 2007 and 2008 have been mid-term elections (though obviously 2007 was a national election in Wale). While Labour’s support in Cardiff and Newport has obviously not come to vote at local elections they might well come back.
Newport is in a fascinating electoral position at the moment. Both Labour seats can be threatened by a Lib Dem/Tory pincer movement and any tactical voting agreement with Tories concentrating in the West and the Lib Dems in the East. The 2007 elections certainly showed that.
But the 2005 general election in Newport East was very close for second place between Tory and Lib Dems and if there is pro-Tory feeling leading up to the general election the Lib Dems might be pushed back into third there. If there is a strong anti-Labour tactical campaign accross the city Labour could well lose both seats, but I think the most likely scenario at the general election is a city-wide swing to the Tories with them polling a strong second in Newport East and MAYBE taking Newport West. It could be very marginal.
192 - Whilst not disagreeing, i think there is a difference between comments on somewhere like this site, where everyone knows the score and some of the tactics we see in elections which engages a different target audience. Comments on here can be beyond the pale IMO, but their broader impact on the political process is minimal.
UKPaul’s concerns about how campaigning of this sort feeds into the general disillusionment with and negativity about, the political process are fully justified. People like Mike will, IMO, always see only the narrow focus of individual elections, but rarely the impact it has on the wider process. Whether it can be reduced is another matter but i don’t think a desire that there should be more balance in campaigns is misguided. Especially the whole, “I can’t really find any specific dirt on my opponent, so I’ll just make some up by exploiting people’s preconceived ideas and prejudices about parties”.
204.
Spot on. If they want to sway ex-labour hovering between Tory and not voting then showing some balls is best way to do it.
Should add to previous comment–doesn’t have to be dirty just ballsy.
203. London Ricardo. If Brown does go soon, which I agree looks increasingly likely, what happens next? Who replaces him and when is the next General Election? Many argue here that if there is a change of leadership then the new leader will feel forced to seek a mandate by going to the country. I don’t agree that this necessarily folows but it’s a fair argument. There is plenty of 33/1 available on a 2008 election. I’ve already backed 2008 at 20/1 but I’m tempted to go in again. Would be interested in others views?
Also if he steps down soon what will happen to the GE seats spread markets? Would they initially get worse for Labour before improving above their current position? Or would there be an immediate bounce for Labour?
205. I am not sure relying on what happened in 1983 etc to predict 2010. If that really worked Labour would never have won in 97!!!
A sea change is a sea change!
211, “Should add to previous comment–doesn’t have to be dirty just ballsy.”
Yes, obviously I don’t approve of lies or blatant smears, Labour’s tactics here wouldn’t make me want to vote for them. But I don’t like to see any politician win by doing nothing, it’s the same reason I think Brown should have been put through a proper leadership contest.
211 - And there’s the distinction. Take the US at the moment as a case in point, so far Obama has managed to tread that line well, the ‘ballsiness’ coming from his refusal to fight on the same terms.
Harman being skewered over this on the BBC at the moment, be careful what you sow…….
sopel just hammered that ‘toff’ Harman on the Labour campaign tactics. Labour really are utterly shameless.
216 - Jon Sopel really is excellent and not used nearly enough.
213 Simply making the point that Bristol South would assuredly be among the very last Labour holds in the South in the event of a total rout by the Conservatives.
testing.
Basically I believe in Competition in politics as well as in the Economy.
In a healthy democracy there should be a process of ‘natural selection’, but in general you win elections based on having been selected by the more popular party, which depends on who you know and who your friends are and want strings you pulled… but rarely on your character and qualities and core beliefs.
220. Makes sense. Bit like the current US thing. Tested by fire.
I enjoyed that Harman interview.
205
The Reading West Conservative candidate does seem a weak choice, I think Mr Salter has as good a chance as any.
david kendrick-having troubles posting.Will fill you in at a later date.
189 Tyson it wasn`t cowardice it was reality, GB knew he could not win bigger than 66, so to be left with no majority or one under 20, which in reality means no majority, with the hard left, he couldnt go.
Why should he go now, for two years he should start to implement progressive policies before having to wait another 18 years.
One of them should be PR, so the moderate left are not split and Fu*ked again as they were under FPTP from 81-97 and in opposition constantly as before, with a brief interval of power for four years every now and again, to give the tories a well earned holiday.
No constitutional change will happen under Cameron Conservatism as tradition runs through his whole persona, the green agenda an concern for the poor is a charade, the change concept, is a complete joke, when you compare it to the possible outome in the USA.
222 - I don’t think she did though….
It is clear that Gordon Brown has personally sanctioned this disgusting campaign being waged by Labour in Crewe. Earlier this morning Ed Milliband was invited by Adam Boulton to condemn the “Toff Tory Boy” campaign being waged by Labour and he tried to dismiss it as light hearted campaigning. 5 minutes ago on the Politics Show when confronted with both the front page of Labour’s website and their current leaflet, Harriet Harman refused to condemn it even though she was clearly squirming. Jon Sopel pointed out to her that as the niece of the Countess of Longford and an old girl of the most expensive Girls Public School in England most people might consider her a toff. She refused to answer. He also pointed out that to him the photo of Tamsin Dunwoody’s house indicated it is a mansion as well. She refused to answer. Let’s hope the people of Crewe deliver the verdict Labour deserve. If after 11 years they cannot campaign on their policies and can only condemn the fact the Tory candidate is a barrister who some might consider a toff. its time for Brown and his lot to get their P45s
220. The closer the seat you are applying for is likely to win, the greater the competition for the vacancy, and the higher the calibre of candidates. The widespread use of Open Primaries from the Conservatives is overcoming a lot of the issues you raise.
From the last thread…
Tories have complained about the campaign but the ‘toffness’ angle has been about hyprocrisy more than anything else and has been a secondary concern.
Most of the condemnation has been at the BNP undertones.
The Con-man leaflets and ‘the friend of a paedophiles’ approach that has now emerged is dispicable.
I wouldn’t accept critisism of it as ’sanctimonious’.
If I am naive about the nature of by elections so be it.
I would rather that than regard this sort of conduct as par for the course. I suspect most voters feel the same.
From a brief report I picked up on Radio 4 the Tories may have issued a writ.
214. In this post you say you don’t approve of lies but in 154. you said that in an election campaign there should be freedom of speech for true and false statements. Which is it?
StJohn @ 196.
I think those odds reflect uncertainty as much as anything.
As much as I was one of those people whop thought that Brown was going to lose the exact voters that Labour needs to win elections, I still think it might be a toss up between dumping him and letting him run, take a big defeat (though not as big as the polls suggest because there will, unless theres something we cant see, be some closing of that gap) and then regroup.
On another note, we can all knock on about when and where Gordon lost it. Again, and its boring even me the number of times I’ve mentioned over the last 9 months or so, its the economy. People are feeling it after so long not feeling it or borrowing to deny it.
229 - Labour’s campaign in C and N is the ineptest for many years. Not just complacent, but hopeless. A cuddly little campaign to get the vote out for the new Dunwoody may have worked. This won’t.
231. Yokel, what do you think about 33/1 a 2008 election?
Harriet for PM!
Cracking interview with Sopel. She skewered him and swatted away with ease his sneering attempt to portray her as a Toff. Not.
We all know Brown did himself a lot of damage with the election that wasn’t. As well as seeming weak, it crystallised an idea in people’s minds that he was too calculating and playing political games rather than running the country. Not surprisingly the reaction to everything he now does is treated as a bribe.
It’s virtually impossible to win any support if people are that cynical. Anything construed as a bribe won’t work, so his best bet is to try and be divisive and hope it wins more votes than it loses. The public can see right through his populism.
Those of us in the north west have just been treated to a head to head debate between Timpson, Dunwoody and Shelton on the Politics Show regional opt-out.
Of course I’m biased, but whilst I thought Timpson came across as the most assured of the three and by far the best, Dunwoody certainly came across as a battler, an old-fashioned 1980s-style Tory-basher and that will surely resonate on some Labour doorsteps, no matter how badly Mr Bean has shafted them.
Shelton just ganged up on Timpson with Dunwoody, although I thought he held his own and left them looking like a pair of bitter old hags frankly. Funny how Lib Dems are all still obsessed with Tory-bashing. They do realise the Tories were booted out in 1997, yes? Perhaps she was just following Cleggover’s lead?
What did amuse me was the Dunwoody response to Bean’s failure to go face to face with voters in C&N. Apparently he is not shying away from voters, and will be facing them on Tuesday - via a phone in on Radio Stoke, 2.30pm. So, Gordon on the frontline there then. You couldn’t make it up…
Roger must be so proud of his party. they sink to new lows every day. if they carry on in this vein they will be hammered in C&N and the following GE
236: I think I got it right about Gordon doing the phone-in on Tuesday. I had slightly tuned-out, but Tamsin said someone was anyway. If it is Gordo, how mad is it to travel all the way up to Stoke for a radio show, but not then nip across to the constituency?
Unless he’s doing it from the comfort of the bunker?
233. On current form its more interesting than 2009 but it would seriously take Labour to have the total head staggers to allow themseles to call an election. Surely they could manage to hold it together even if they did boot out Brown.
My own portfolio is very heavily weighted to 2010 with a little profit out of mid to late 2009. I am totally blank on 2008, with the exception of a small stake saving cover on Q1 which has passed, and for now will keep it that way.
183 what would conman mean?
113 “Unfortunately for Major he also inherited a post-regicidal Parliamentary party…”
The problem for Major was he was rubbish.
As the Grea Man once said, “When you back is against the wall, it is time to turn around and start fighting.”
Says it all really.
For those saying a change in Leadership = New Election . . . no chance.
Why would someone who to even their own surprise now becomes PM go to the country in order to lose the job of a lifetime after only a month? Any new leader would cling on until 2010 trying to turn the situation around.
204. But he doesn’t need to get his hands dirty. The labour bandwagon is imploding!
231 Yokel, I would agree the tipping point the none election in my opinion is bull.
Its only Boulton and CO, who give one about that.
For Ordinary Joe`s
Its the economy plain and simple, the uncertainty, and unless you are at least over 35, you cant remember comparisons with the last lot, intrest rates at 16% and above, so you give the government a good kicking.
The same happened in 91,but the problem was then Labour was not a credible opposition. Cameron currently is percieved at least
a decent alternative unlike Kinnock for many switchers.
242 - Because a new leader would get a polling bounce and would be able to campaign on a “fresh start” manifesto. Having not had any time in power a defeat would be blamed on Brown, and would leave them safe as Opposition Leader, if they wanted it.
They had a reason for calling off the election that wasn’t. Wouldn’t that in itself proves the tipping point was earlier? The economy has just changed the prospect from “not good enough” to “oh crap”.
I think there’ll be a new leader and they’ll cling on to the last minute to shore up their position as much as possible.
215. Miliband would probably become leader, but he would hang on until 2010. Can’t see any reason why he’d go to the country immediately and lose. Agree with other posts that he’d also lose in 2010, but can blame Brown and re-build - potentially winning in 2014 if the economy doesn’t pick up and Cameron’s inexperience is exposed. A new leader would also cause a fall in the Cons seats spread market, so could be an opportunity to further build on my position (it’s a bit high at the moment)….
239/242. I agree with this. However loud the clamour, a new leader would seek to hold on, hoping for a change of fortune. The argument for Brown calling an election was sound because he bwowbeat his party into appointing him without a contest. His replacement will either have won a leadership election, in which case likeliest person Daid Miliband, or else be a true consensus candidate a la Michael Howard, ie Jack Straw.
216
It really was funny,Harman too much of a toff to be Labour,went to the most expensive private school in the UK,father was an Admiral and her Auntie apparently is a Duchess;meanwhile Tansim Hereditary Dunwoody has a mansion in Wales to rival the Tory candidates in C&N.
To add to the circus, you have the Glaswegian class warrior of the 60’s Steve McScab, running a campaign that the BNP would be proud of and will probably sue Labour for intellectual property theft.
171 What does Period mean? Does it mean that it would take some period of time?
137 “Labour will hang themselves on the economy. Period.”
What does Period mean? Does it mean that it would take some period of time?
247: The public gave Brown a chance and liked what they saw at first but the election changed that. After that the trust in and the novelty of a Brown government was lost, and everyting bad flowed from there.
253, 254 Bleedin cant get the numbers right now!
Fever is gone but seems it will take a while to recover.
Still, the way things are going, I can take a rest now. Labour it doing all the hard work.
I know that i have compared Gordon Brown’s nose with Adolf Hitler in the past but the bunker mentaility is becoming set in stone to Brown’s henchmen. How out of touch can you get when not only parts of the economy are in freefall but the election machine that propelled many of the cabinet second raters is in terminal decline - the cabinet minister’s decide to have a karoke evening!
You could not make it up!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3953740.ece
Next Gordon will be ordering chocolate cake! Spring time for gordon and GB!
Having Thatch at number 10 was a gift to the SNP. Totally fogotten if that happened before or after. Just remember laughing a lot.
I suspect that post the C+N result,they’ll be singing Queen’s ‘Another One Bites The Dust’
259.
!!!!
anyone got a video link to the Harman interview?
261 - bbc politics website
211 I strongly think not in Newport. The Tories are focused like a laser on Flynn. Look at 2008 and where the LD’s scored in Newport East. By contrast the Tories racked up their best hits in Newport West. I think the pincer is on.
226 That didn’t help Tory MPs in 1997. AS I say if the mood is half as anti Labour at present and able to call on the resources of almost a dozen safe neighbouring seats for the Tories it would be a huge surprise if Salter could actually hang on although he could well perform better than most Labour candidates in the region.
250 He’d still be tainted. Better to let Uncle Jack minimise the damage and give him a decent platform for for 2014 or 2015.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_4690000/newsid_4693800/4693870.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&ms3=6&ms_javascript=true&nol_storyid=4693870&bbcws=2
fast forward to 27:39
187, 172 etc
Cant comment on Newport - Cardiff pretty straightforward , N => Con, C = LD, S =L, W = L
But Swansea is looking interesting - East is a Labour banker. West & Gower are both up for grabs, but both suffer from slit oppositions. In West LDs are better placed and if they can get some momentum (’only LDs can win this seat..’)then I think they can just do it but only 50:50 at the moment. A lot will depend on choice of campaign on the day.
Not so sure about Gower - there is a strong core Conservative vote in the rural areas, but in the northern urban areas where voters are typically Labour & Plaid, I can not see a big shift to Conservatives. I predict a Labour hold but very tight.
Incidentally just been looking at Llanelli - in local council elections councillors are now Plaid 14, Labour 4, Independents 10 -I think game over for Labour west of the Loughor…
That’s why Harman would make a bad leader, she knows the campaign is nasty and personal, and her defense of it is total crud. She says Labour are making a positive campaign, then when shown the website and leaflet she just acts like they don’t matter. She hesitates, sounds unconvincing and leaves the impression she’s tyring to cover up.
I have noticed that much has been made in the press that Gordon has ordered much of his government to campaign in C & N. The interesting point is Gordon has failed to campaign there and the nearest he will get to C & N is Stoke - on - Trent! Brown really is in retreat if he has to visit rock solid Labour in seats where there is no election and feign abscence from C & N. From personal experience of Stoke - On - Trent, Brown would be better going to C & N as i think he will find Stoke - on - trent even more depressing!
245. If Labour changes leader again later this year, I do think they will come under a very strong moral obligation to call an election. Not immediatly, but I would not imagine they could withstand the will of the public for too long, so spring 2009 would then become favourite for me.
Obviously if they stick with the Clunking One, 2010 is almost a cert.
256 - SPLIT not slit….
267. What i also missed saying was the ministers who had to go to C & N or tele-canvass might not take to Mcavity staying away from the heat. Looks like Gordon has just made another big mistake!
269 - 266 not 256 - Must pay more attention…..
263 - If the tactical voting pincer is replicated around the whole country to the extent that Labour lose BOTH Newport seats Labour could face a catastrophe.
266. Did she condemn it? Remember that HH is David Cameron’s cousin and HH is some relation of Lady Astor!
Frazer Nelson makes the point on the spectator blog that Browns £2.7 billion tax cut will have to be paid by Camerons first budget…
Scorched Earth??? My only worry is that Cameron might lack the mettle necessary to rebalance our economy. It is going to get very unpleasant and painful to bring down spending to match government income. The next prime minister is going the need the zeal and determination of Thatcher to balance the books, while not dumping large numbers of public sector employees into the job market at a time of economic contaction in the private sector.
Re. 268. This is the reason why, however bad things get, the chances of Labour ditching Brown are remote.
Contempt.
Lab Campaign in C and N.
273. Nope, she said they were just side issues and the main thrust was showing Tamsin Dunwoody in a positive light, which was rubbish. The labour website and leaflets are all negative about Timson and barely mention Dunwoody.
274. It will be up to Cameron to spend the next election conveying to the general what Brown has done with regards to storing up crazy amount of government debt. Hopefully that will allow him some lee-way for the public in his first term to correct these disasterous amounts of Labour borrowing.
265 - I’m just looking at Llanelli myself. Helen Mary Jones and Plaid polled very well here in 2007 and 2008 but they were MILES behind at the general election in 2005. I reckon the voters are enjoying splitting their vote. Plaid local/Wales and Labour for Westminster.
It makes a change for Wales to be so interesting. The first time I did this exercise it was getting tedious to write ’safe Labour seat’. I’m having to qualify that statement nearly every time now!
274. It’d be dead easy.
Just do a Boris on the QANGOcracy….. save a £100bn a year.
Has anyone got any links to any campaign literature for C&N? I want to see how bad it is.
280
Unfortunately you’ve just closed down the NHS. Most NHS trusts are quangoes.
274. Its going to take more then one term to rebalance the situation, and that assumes the the economy doesnt get much worse. A £40 billion pbr, now in a period of growth could very quickly hit a £100 billion if the economy genuinly goes into recession.
In a recession you get the double whammy of all tax reciepts drying up without haste, and a massice increase in public spending to cope with those made redundant.
It took ten to fifteen years for the Conservatives to sort out the legacy left to them in 1979, and of course within that they made plenty of their own mistakes.
281 - Conservativehome have pictures of a fair bit of it
that should be 278, or course…
281
http://www.creweandnantwichlabour.org.uk/
I wonder if Nick Palmer MP resents being ordered to campaign in C & N when the PM will not go there? If Blair could go to the Tory held seats of Uxbridge and then Eddisbury, why does Brown order his government payroll to do something he will not in a Labour seat? Not much in the way of leadership or a leaf out of the book Brown wrote!
If Brown behaved like that in the real world he would be out on his ear! 
282. Maybe. But they’re not very good at what they’re supposed to be doing, are they?
Besides, an estimate made last year put the QANGO cost at closer to £200bn, so my suggestion assumed that those that have merit would remain.
Labour = LOL!!!
Labour could be facing bigger melt down than in 1931!
289. Yes, i think 1931 was the last time Labour were punished for raping the economy?
Just watching the Marr show, I cannot believe that the BBC is giving air time to Ali Dizzai, the man is a crook, and a (proven) fraudster, a disgrace.
289. Didn’t the then Labour leader defect to the tories later?
Gordon - No!!!
291. You might say that………………………………….
293, the man should be in jail, not on tv telling me how racist the police force is.
The case was dropped by the police because of political pressure from the Cabinet, not because of lack of evidence.
275: Remote only if you see the result of a 2010 election with Brown as being better than one say in the autumn with a new leader. The question is not how can Labour win the next election but how badly do they want to lose it.
288
Well a list fo suggestions:
cut use of management consultants
Scrap NHS IT system
No ID cards.
Cut number of MPs to 400
Scrap the Barnett formula.
Halve overseas aid… at least half is wasted…
I am sure there’s a £2-£3 billion a year there..
Its 4 days to the worst labour bye election result since 1066!!!!
Con gain Hull East 2010!!!!!!
294 - Do you have some good lawyers?
“Halve overseas aid… at least half is wasted…”
Which half?
Ave it forecasts this candidate will come 3rd in C&N!!!!!!!
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/article1175397.ece?slideshowPopup=true&articleId=1175397&nSlide=2
283 Get your defence in early,
Don`t think that will work in the new media age regarding the economy, they won`t give you 4 years.
You will only get 4 years if the opposition is crap like from 1997 to 2005.
Thatcher only got away with 4 million unemployed in 82 because of Foot and the hard left, and a war for a remote piece of rock nobody gave a shit about, until we won the conflict, then it was called a war.
267. Brown is not going to Stoke-on-Trent. He will be sitting in London talking on a line to someone in Stoke-on-Trent.
Nick - is this a Labour MP in disguise?
http://freespace.virgin.net/nishalka.abyssinians/Sekhmet.jpg
Rasmussen Numbers for Nebraska:
President: McCain 50 Obama 39
Senate: Johanns (R) 55 Kleeb (D) 40
This indicates that Nebraska could go for Obama in a landslide win (anything over 55%). The Senate race is as expected. It is an open seat but Johanns is the quasi-incumbent as a former Governor with high favourables. Kleeb is young and energetic and a darling of the netroots. He is a definite underdog but should run a good campaign. If it is a strong Democratic year a landslide could give the Democrats this seat but you would then be talking 10-14 gains.
304 - http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/nebraska/election_2008_nebraska_senate
O/T - Does anyone know if we are getting an election special on BBC Parliament on B/Hol Monday?
265. Not sure you can say split opposition in the Gower and Swansea West. Seems clear to me that Swansea West is for the LDs challenger. Gower for the Tories. No split I can see. As for Cardiff hm watch the Council elections for West and South should be as you say but they’re no longer massive bankers.
272 There maybe tactical voting and West is certainly vulnerable but Labour should still hold Newport East today. Much more is needed for the LDs with the Labour vote to take the seat. There will inevitably be a tactically resistant Tory core vote bank and vice versa in Newport West.
306 BBC parliament post their schedule 1 week in advance so check on Tues 20 May:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcparliament/listings/index.shtml?service_id=4480&day=today
306 perhaps they could show election 05 - the last time labour will ever win an election!
HAHAHAHAHAHA etc
296. We dont need two or three billion to rebalance the economy, we need £45 billion. Once we get rid of the easy targets you mention, we start having to look at very painful areas, all of which have very powerful interest groups.
Brown was in a remarkable position in 2001, he had kept control of spending by following the Tory spending plans (which ken clark didnt believe even he could have realistically kept to), the tax reciepts were flooding in, we had a number of windfall incomes, the 3G sell off for instance. It was quite possible that within a few short years, the national debt would be cleared entirely, but Gordon decided to go a different way.
309 - I was thinking they might do 1983 as this year is the 25th anniversary of that Thatcher triumph!
298. The information is public knowledge, and has being printed in the press. Truth is considered a good defence against libel.
311 wont that be replayed in 2010 HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE?
310 - You are right that the deficit is not balanced at a time when it shouldbe. You are wrong to suggest that a government should seek to eliminate debt entirely. There is a trade-off between debt and investment. If debt is going up because of investment that will provide future returns that is not necessarily a bad thing.
111 - Using tax-take as a % of GDP is a very blunt tool in looking at how high-tax or low-tax an economy is. We are in a position where taxes are roughly the same as they were at the end of Mrs T’s term as PM (1990) - about 43-44%.
The crucial difference though is that back then, tax rates were being reduced to incentivise people into earning more. The 1988 Budget had brought the higher rate of Income Tax down to 40%, with most Lawson budgets also bringing the basic rate down and/or increasing the thresholds by more than RPI (sometimes both). Other tax rates were coming down too, for business. As people were earning more, though, they paid the same amount of tax as they would have done without those incentivised rates, but would have had much less themselves afterwards.
Given the amound of debt the Government has got us in (whatever + £2.7bn!) we are revisiting the late 70s. The Cameron government will have to raise tax rates to get that borrowing down before tax rates can be reduced. Don’t be surprised if VAT gets to 20% - something only an incoming government could do in its first Parliament, and get away with.
298.
here is a link to melanie phillips about the crooked cop:
http://www.melaniephillips.com/diary/?p=60
315 - But surely the only sustainable way of reducing tax is to reduce spending?
314. I think you misunderstand me, Debt in itself it not always a bad thing, it can be used to help an economy going through a difficult patch, but the point about 2001 was that the tax reciepts were flooding in, and the economy was growing, unemployment dropping, we were in a position where complete debt repayment could have happened without pain. In such a scenario, having a £40 billion current account deficet is no bad thing if you have paid off the mortgage.
317
The best argument I’ve heard on these lines is that low taxes are only sustainably low if you reduce demand for state spending > fix the broken society. I think I heard that in one of Mr Cameron’s CPS speeches.
317. Significant reduction in taxes is completley off the agenda. Stabilizing state of the public finances is far more important, which is going to need a reduction in spending. If Labour believe they can win the next election, they will begin to desensitise us to the coming pain. If they dont, they really dont expect to win, and hope to pin it all on a one term Cameron government.
272 Regarding tactical voting. Read this http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/02/localelections.localgovernment2
317 - I doubt reduction in spending will be enough. £45-50bn of debt can’t be swiped away in a hurry. Too many vocal interest groups.
The last time debt was reduced, privatisation proceeds helped - so Mrs T could promise to maintain NHS/DHSS spending in the long-term. The state did not grow as quickly as the economy, but it still grew.
Though I guess you could start by questioning whether Doctors working very social hours are worth £100k a pop.
No wonder government spending has ballooned.
323. Put aside the specific example. Is it feasible to reduce in general, public sector pay?? Who would wish to stand up in Parliament and declare a -3% reduction in pay of nurses and teachers?
Just to note the all-singing all-dancing Conservative government also got itself into a similar fiscal mess with PSBR rising to 7% of GDP in 1993/4. It is below 3% at the moment.
325. tell the whole story, or dont bother.
326 - Sorry, can’t be bothered.
Looked at ITV text - claims that David Milliband has denied reports in French press about taking a job with the EU. Is the story being carried anywhere else?
325. Yes. We was in a recession (or just coming out of one) and the Tories had made some disasterous decisions, for which they were rightly turfed out in 1997.
We all know this. What relevence does it have now?
315. 20% VAT is a distinct possibility in the Cons first budget! They could argue that they’re keeping direct taxes down.
239. But 24 year old Cameron was chief economics advisor at the Treasury and rivaled the Governor of the Bank of England in economic importence.
329 - The point is a very simple one. The Conservative posters on here act as though this is the first government to make economic mistakes. They have made a mistake in running too big a public deficit in times of economic prosperity and the deficit will undoubtedly get bigger if there is a recession. Frequently comments are made like ‘Labour governments always run out of money’. I was just pointing out that the Conservative record of fiscal prudence is hardly stellar.
331 - That too.
330
I don’t see that happening. Mr Cameron wants to be able to campaign for re-election having successfully cut taxes.
“‘If you take the local elections, there was no doubt in my mind that it was easiest to campaign in those places where Conservative councils really did have a record of keeping the council tax down, or at least promising to limit the increase,’ he says. ‘I haven’t done the sums. But I’m pretty sure that the areas where we did best were those where we were able to say: look, we’re in government here, we are helping with the cost of living, we understand your problems and difficulties.’
The moral he has drawn is that low tax is a good strategy for re-election “
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/658951/part_2/cameron-gets-ready-for-no-10-and-boris-must-wait-his-turn.thtml
330 - Great move that. Hurt the poor most, while giving the rich who have benefitted the most from a decade of prosperity a pass.
330 - a very good policy - to discourage excessive expenditure on consumer items. Of course there should be no extension onto basics such as food.
And a massive tax take too!
Lets stop the buy now pay later mentality!!!
The US polls may be getting to grips with how third party candidates might affect the race, Rasmussen just released a poll with such. Without Obama leads McCain by one - Obama 45%, McCain 44%, with them he leads him by four. Obama 42%, McCain 38%, Bob Barr (libertarian) 6% and Ralph Nader (independent/green) 4%.
If Clinton ran as an independent this is what the results are suggested as being - McCain 32%, Obama 31%, Clinton 22%, Barr 3%, and Nader 3%. Taking 11% off Obama and 6% from McCain, 3% from Barr (!?!) and 1% from Nader. As for how that would affect the EV who knows?
335 it will discourage those who are spending who shouldnt be spending - wait till you can afford it rather than put it on the HP!!! Its the lower income elements who are most guilty of this!
331 - What an absolute load of rubbish
339, I assumed 331 was a joke post. Surprised to see Kieran apparently taking it seriously.
338 - Indirect taxes are regressive everyone knows that.
337 - By the way, in 2004 the third parties got just 1% between them, why should that change much this time? Okay, I can understand that Barr might be more credible than Badnarik but what does Nader bring this time that he didn’t last time?
I would expect the third party to lose more than half of those votes as election day gets closer, unless one or other of the candidates romps ahead.
335. The question is Kieran, can we accept that the current level of public spending is to high on a structural level, rather then a cyclical one?
ie. The level of spending is unsustainable in both good times and bad times, and the current deficet is not a cause of bad economic times, but of spending being to high?
The only real choice is a structural reduction in spending. The only way to ease the pain of the significant structural reduction, is to increase taxation.
The Tories will not want to increase taxes and destroy the good will of the first parliamentary success of eighteen years.
340 - Whoosh!
(I know woody is a Tory and my comment was meant to be sarcastic)
306 re BBC Parliament on bank holiday Monday - no - they have a “Permissive Night” - Joan Bakewell looking back to changes in the sixties. One of the items is “Michael Parkinson appears, in his pre-chat show days, reporting from a constituency during the 1966 General Election campaign.”
327
I can. Loads has been taken off the balance sheet. I would weigh less if you chopped off my left leg!
345 -
344, ah, my mistake. Difficult to know which parts of history have been revised and which haven’t:p
343 - The mistake Labour made was IMO as a Labour supporter not making the political case for higher taxes in the good times, both economically and politically.
The good thing is that the Tories will have to take a hit if they want to reduce spending.
346 - That doesn’t work really. Take PFI which is ‘off balance sheet’. It shows up in PSBR because the government has to pay the PFI companies each year for use of the infastructure they have built. So the debt may be off balance sheet but the payments aren’t.
341 measures to discourage those social groups from spending more money (which they havent got or earned) are to be encouraged - otherwise they just go asking for more benefits.
Of course we need other tax reforms such as:
- phasing out child benefits (over 20 years, I would like to scrap them immediately but realise that the impact would be too great)
- scrap all child tax credits - WHY DOES THE STATE SUBSIDISE THOSE HAVING CHILDREN??????
- abolish stamp duty on property as it distorts the market and penalises working classes trying to get on or up the property ladder
- make it illegal to have children out of wedlock (OOPS sorry gone a bit far, would like to do that but might not be consistent with Human Rights legislation…)
I see that Ladbrokes have stopped taking money on the Conservatives in C&N and that SPIN have moved Labour seats to 234-240.
349. They made the case for higher spending, just no way to pay for it.
Hardly fair that the Tories have to pick up the tab for it though.
What if it all falls apart before Brown can hold an election? As we have both mentioned, a 45 billion overdraft could balloon if we go into recession (if i was a betting man, i wouldnt like to bet against it).
352. betfair is still only giving 6 to 1 on labour though….
353 - Fairness is a bit of an odd political concept. Was is fair that the Attlee government had to deal with the fall out from World War II? Was it fair that Chamberlain had to deal with the rise of European fascism? Was it fair that Thatcher had to deal with the fall-out from Labour’s late 70s mismanagement?
The Tories will have to deal with it. It’s hardly going to be the worst situation ever inherited by an incumbent government. Sure, it’s not as nice as Labour’s inheritance in 1997 but it is hardly 1945 is it?
353 ‘Hardly fair that the Tories have to pick up the tab for it though.’
Ah we are the white knights who ride to the rescue to save the distressed damsel!
Whenever Britain has faced a problem, it is we tories who have saved it.
Conservative……the party which saves Britain!!!!!
353 - Well life’s not fair is it? Both parties get blamed for things for which they are not entirely responsible. This is also a case where voters have to look at themselves. They want to have their cake and eat it, so it is no surprise that politicians don’t want to give people hard truths.
351 - The last policy is great Ave it. Get lobbying Dave. You can get rid of the Human Rights legislation anyway. Go on. Looking forward to seeing it in the manifesto! Then you could say ‘Ave it gains Con’!!
On the child tax credits / child benefits. There are two motivations. 1. We should encourage procreation. Our birth-rate is below replacement levels which means we have an ageing population. We need people to have children to keep the economy going. 2. Labour cares about children and thinks they do better in households that aren’t in poverty. Remember tax credits go to people in work not scroungers!
355. You could say in some ways it is worse than 1945 for the state of Britain - Hitler could not invade destroy GB as a state but Labour may well have done so!
The next Tory government might have to let Scotland go rather like Labour did with India!
358 Brilliant - if Scotland goes then with all the handouts we could save we could a. abolish VAT and b. give free houses for unmarried mothers!!!!!!!
Er don’t we do b. already??
357. We need people to have children to keep the economy going. 2. Labour cares about children and thinks they do better in households that aren’t in poverty. Remember tax credits go to people in work not scroungers!
What if the tories did a Brown and uplifted the tax threshold on the basic rate and lowered the higher rate but by huge proportions? Could axe tax credits then and it is not means tested!
The working poor would then still have the insentive!
360.
£7,000 of lost tax credits wont be compensated by paying £1000 less tax by raising the threshold.
359. With Scotland’s umbilicle cord cut from the English tax payer. We could let lots of eastern european women in and father their babies! ten women for every man!!!
360 - Yes but you would drag a lot of people on middle incomes into the higher rate tax band.
358 - I thought the Zimbabwe comparisons were a bit much, but nw you’re comparing Brown with Hitler!
316 those criminal charges blocked by Labour can be brought at a later date.
354 I don’t know, but a guess would be that Shadsy doesn’t work Sundays and a stop-limit on Tory bets has been reached? The papers are truely dreadful for Brown. There’s something of the emperor’s new clothes about it all, except it’s worse than that because Brown is both the tailor and the emporer. Think I’ll have a look at the Sunday Mirror to see what their take is.
351 glad you like my policies
Get rid of the Human Rights legislation???? Shocking! We are all good Europeans here - they are our friends! (Sometimes)
PEOPLE SHOULD ONLY HAVE CHILDREN IF THEY CAN AFFORD IT!
It is not a right!
(Sorry no more capitals but these Labour people who want to populate this land with illegitimate children who will go on to be as big a failures as their parents makes me *$%!)
363. Brown does have the same nasal profile and some uncharitable Labour cabinet ministers have said that Brown has the same character traits!
363 not sure where the linkage between Brown and Hitler is there!
OK - the final word - Labour are all *………
316 - Got a more reliable source?
358 “The next Tory government might have to let Scotland go rather like Labour did with India! ”
But then the Indians spent the next 50 years trying to immigrate into Britain. Seems like Indians dont like being ruled by Indians.
Does that mean Scotland will empty and they will all head south??
366 Of course having children is a right. What planet are you on?
366. We only signed the oringinal convention on human rights, as a good example, and encourage particular countries, who had a habit of gassing jews and gypsies, or locking up dissidents without trial, to sign up and reform their ways.
The idea that such a convention would lead to the police giving a hostage taker KFC/Mcdonalds as his ‘human right’ is a travesty.
371 no its isnt - if you cant afford them dont have them!!!!
You are a spanner
370. But i can think of some people who the English would gladly exchange at the border!!!
369. Has Phillips had any legal action against her for telling us all what a crook this cop is? That he is a liar, that he invented a ‘racist attack’ that he filed a false insurance claim (for said attack), that he was recorded threating to kill one of his mistresses, that he was renound for taking freebies from local businesses and was giving free use of a vehicle from the Iranian embassy.
He is a crook pure and simple, and should be in jail, at the very very least, booted out of the force.
370. Are but the “national dish” would not be chicken tikki masala and we would not have the pleasure of watching MP’s pretending to be Indian and walk around in turbans and get those red dots on the forehead!
355 see 321 and 307.
Apparently the press association are saying that the Tories have widened their lead on the guargian website.
Not sure if this is C & N or next GE:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
378. Think it was the polls this morning on closer inspection! Sorry genuine mistake - why call it breaking news when it is old news?
378. Maybe i should get a job at the gruniard my spelling is upto their standard!
MI5 linked to Max Mosley sex scandal
An MI5 officer has been forced to resign after admitting that his wife was a prostitute who took part in a notorious “Nazi-style orgy” with Max Mosley, the Formula One racing chief.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article3953837.ece
380
:lol: 
:lol:
383 thats better - two spaces between the
381. Didn’t his father (mosley) defect from being a leading member of the Labour party to the father of the modern day BNP?
Maybe after a crushing defeat some Labour MP’s will defect to the BNP - that fellow who said British Jobs for British Workers springs to mind? Not sure they would want him as he fits the image of a bougy man to much!
Does that mean Scotland will empty and they will all head south??
You speak as if that would be a new phenomenon.
385
Mosley was clearly set up but by whom? Down to money I guess. I hope we get the name of the MI5 prozzie so that that the tabloids can get a long lens shoved right up her ….. 24/7 and see how she likes it.
373 Mr Ave it, I respect you voting predictions, but, I am afraid, you are wrong.
Children are a blessing from God, or Nature, or the Great Spirit if you prefer.
Children existed long before money. Ask anyone.
I watched an interesting program on one of the Mitford sisters last night. Apparently she had a love child with Adolf Hitler and the child was born over here! Given i have always thought that Gordon has the same Nose as Adolf hitler…………………..
Talking about people who look like Adolf Hitler, I saw Dawn Primerrolo on the telly today!
388 ok Al, we will have to agree to differ on this!
388. Children are a blessing from God - not when they are screaming when you have a hang over, smearing dog shit on peoples car door handles or smashing windows with balls/ stones/mud bombs!
389: Dawn Primarolo!!!! The last surviving Lab MP south of Severn-Wash (excl London) after 2010!!!!
Moseley started off as a Tory MP, then joined Labour and c. 1932 formed the New Party, then moved on to the British Union of Fascists - bankrolled from Rome.
392. She might experience a close shave at the next election!
394 HAHAHAHAHA HEHEHEHEHE HOHOHOHOHOHO
391 All children are born innocent. How they grow up is another story.
Just practicing for Friday 2am ish:
Labour =
395. If spitting image was still around, she would get a real pounding* RE-Spitting image: not talking about Roy Hattersley
386
The problem with Scotland is that most of the brighter ones left Scotland years ago. And see what is left… eg Speaker, PM, Chancellor….etc…
398 Spitting Image was weak.
If it really did what it claimed, it would show immigrants getting a free ride and police ignoring islamic militancy and targeting Channel 4 program makers.
376 Britian was in India for 200 years, we already had the recipe for curry. The fake inventions only arrived when the Bangladeshis arrived and picked up a Madja Jaffrie cook book.
The Bangladeshi imigrants just corrupted British understanding of Indian food. For starters Vindaloo isnt a dish with buckets of chilie powder. It is a European invention Vin I understand means Wine in Portugese. And when was the last time you were able to get a Pork Vindaloo in restaurant?