ComRes reports a 13% lead in Crewe & Nantwich
May 19th, 2008Updated 2145
CreweTV
By election voting shares - CON 48%: LAB 35%: LD 12%
A ComRes poll taken amongst voters in Crewe and Nantwich for the Independent is showing that the Tories are heading for a 13% lead. This is substantially bigger than the 8% that ICM had in their survey at the weekend for the News of the World.
The first details came from Andrew Grice’s blog .
What could be critical here is the timing of this latest poll. If the fieldwork took place over the weekend, which I assume, then it seems to suggest that things have continued to move away from Labour.
ComRes and ICM are both telephone pollsters operating quite similar methodologies although their processing of the data is different. Quite often ICM carry out the fieldwork for ComRes though I do not know whether that happened here.
A 13% Tory lead compares with the 16.8% margin that Labour had at the general election and if this was to come about would represent a swing of just under 15%. Anthony Wells’s excellent list of Tory target seats only goes up to the first 200 with the final one requiring a swing of just 10.5%. Within that top 200, at place 191, is Steve McCabb’s Birmingham Hall green. Steve is the Labour official leading their campaign in the Cheshire seat.
All this suggests that we could be in landslide territory which could have a dramatic affect on the current domestic political scene - particularly on Gordon’s future.
Mike Smithson
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Squee!
Fangirl noises come to C&N politics.
15% swing = Con majority of 260 on electoral calculus.
… a cup of tea and some biscuits and now it’s TWO new threads with HUNDREDS of comments on.
Gordon, we just can’t go on like this.
Give it up, mate. Let the rest of us go back to our lives.
Whats going on. Every time I post, a new thread appears. Anyways…
“It is finished for Labour. The longer they are in, the lower they shall fall.
The best they can do is resign and rebuild.“
2b rofl not gonna happen, not gonna happen. Con Gain Bootle etc.
repost
“Highly amusing piece on Telegraph blogs about Angela Browning MP posting her mobile through a voter’s letterbox
contained this fascinating snippet
“On a more serious note Labour is in awe of the Tory operation up here. They say that the Conservatives can turn around high quality literature very quickly and get it through doors all within a day.
In contrast Labour’s machinery is more grinding and less swift.
I dare say Lord Ashcroft will again be portrayed as the Bogeyman of the piece. But in short he has presided over the sort of campaign the Tories have never seemingly had the means, motive or opportunity to mount in recent memory.”
THANK YOU, Lord Ashcroft, you are a superstar. It wasn’t money, it was the sheer torrent of volunteers. Ashcroft’s gift to the party is the way he has professionalised campaigning
by Test May 19th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
4 Not a brilliant, earth changing post - but it was a reply to the question asked.
3…our new lives in the House of Commons! right Marcus?
God !!!!!! Mike’s got more threads than Savile Row !!!!!
[From previous thread]
129. That’s slightly unfair. We can’t know what Tamsin thinks about her splendid mum.
However I do think Labour were somewhat tasteless in calling the by-election so quickly - and then they compounded that by presuming, very arrogantly, that the voters would just elect a Dunwoody sprog, out of “sympathy”. Even if the lady lived in Wales.
Surely C&N (IF the Tores win!) will go down as a benchmark: on how NOT to run a by-election.
3 - I replied on the last thread Marcus, but even I find myself a thread behind when I post now…I’m getting on a bit I suppose.
5 - No. Joe Benton hangs on in Bootle with a mere 28% majority
a 15% swing on the 2005 results would be just about the biggest electoral wipeout since the Liberal party collapsed. It would make 1997 for the Tories look like a scratch
I don’t think a 15% swing would be utterly fatal for Brown - but it’ll be an indication that events have degraded since the bye.
Eastbourne helped decide Thatcher’s fate and that was 20%.
15% might be enough.
Have they opened the postal votes yet?
Also, we need to have Eric Pickles canonised.
15 hear hear! We’re not worthy! that’s Lord Pickles to us! eat yer heart out Rennard etc etc
15 Martin. Not too sure that Pickles will fit in a canon ?!?!
Gordon Brown:
CHEERIO CHEERIO CHEERIO
CHEERIO CHEERIO CHEERIO
CHEERIO CHEERIO CHEERIO
CHEERIO CHEERIO!!!!!
etc…………
Anyways, in the Daily Mail, the Labour Traitors are finally talking about some long over due legislation that would resonate with the public.
Discrimination against British soldiers in uniform to become a criminal offence
After we have had immigrants refusing to serve Servicemen in uniform or abusing wounded veterans in NHS hospitals…Airports holding veterans prisoners on aircraft as they land in Britain after serving their country in Iraq and Afghanistan. It wouldnt be a surprise to know that BAA is owned by Johnny Foreigner
It is the least that is due. Perhaps Labour is fearing trials ahead, like members of a Vichy or Nazi regime…
Labour have gone from 4% to 8% to 13% in the space of just over a week. With another couple of days to go until polling day, there position may get ecen worse! :O
What kind of majority would this give the Tories with a 15% swing?
17 …. or a Vicar or a Rector !!!!!!!!!
Eric Pickles can fit in my canon any day, etc.
20 - There could be a tipping point at which Labour voters just decide there’s no point in turning out to cast a “peg over the nose” vote.
Can Labour go down to 0% in the polls?????!
New PPP Primary Poll for Oregon :
Clinton 39% .. Obama 58%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Oregon_051908.pdf
24 - lol. Just put in Con 70 Lab 0 into electoral calculus. Somehow the Libs still hang on to 23 seats
5 …..And an even bigger thank you to the tax haven of Belize without which he might have had to pay UK tax!
Is there any substance to the Charles Clarke stalking horse rumour post C and N or is it just PB speculation?
8.”God !!!!!! Mike’s got more threads than Savile Row !!!!!”
Jack, now where have I heard that joke before…..
@26:
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS WINNING HERE
26 LOL - perhaps Jack is right and the LDs ARE difficult to shift!!!
9 What we do know is that her mother is not yet cold and she is doing her best to get her old job - and doing a lot of smiling.
There is something very, very undignified.
I remember in 1990 Bootle when SDP came about 9th with about 46 votes! Can Lab go lower? (Are there 10 candidates??)
31 once the buggers are in, they are difficult to get rid of, as i found out a few weeks ago.
24. I’m wondering if Labour could actually record the first negative rating in an opinion poll - i.e. a figure lower than zero - with less than 0% of the public expressing their support for the government.
Kind of like a Burmese referendum, but in reverse.
There will be two big questions if we win convincingly on Thursday:
1) Who will Labour blame?
2) Whatever happened to the fabled Lib Dem by-election machine?
As I have put on my blog there was a time not long ago when the Lib Dems were the sole beneficiaries of safe Labour seat by elections, indeed it’s not THAT long ago since the Lib dems were winning safe seats from us.
What is happening to them? First they get trounced in the London mayoral elections and then they get stuffed in a seat that by past performance they should have been easy winners in; and now we are told they are targeting Henley?
Henley? Blue Blazer land, the only town in Britain that has a Jaguar dealer at both ends of the high street (not really), that counts Michael Hestletine *and* Boris Johnson as past MP’s.
I used to live in Henley On Thames, in the days when people crossed the road to avoid you if you wore a Blue Rosette Henley remained the one place where you could be sure of a warm welcome as a Conservative; the one place where you could share your Thatcher memories without shame.
Is this a real strategy or an excuse?
20 We should not get too carried away. The first two poll differences are within the margin of error and the third poll was on a similar but different methodology.
29 ChrisD. The old ones are the best !! …. as in most things !!
Jack W is 105.
35 LOL it must be a possibility!!!
Labour appear to have -2 according to this:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/19/now-icm-record-record-labour-deficit/
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
You have to wonder how long it will be until the Labour party are in 3rd place in the polls. The economy has far from bottomed out, and the longer Brown clings on, things will only get worse for Labour.
37 - True.
36 - The Conservatives could have probably made a decent fist in any seat which only needed an 8% swing for victory since 2003 - there’s been no really attractive seat since then, allowing the LDs leeway.
27.Roger, meow! Don’t be catty…
Which Scot will get blamed if it goes wrong?
Why is it that if there is any criticism to go around it takes on an even more personal nature if they have a Scottish accent!
19. “Perhaps Labour is fearing trials ahead, like members of a Vichy or Nazi regime…”
Memo to nurse Ratched. Double the dose………
Schadenfreude is a wonderful thing.
@36:
I worry about Henley. We can’t write the yellow peril off. It has all the hallmarks of another Bromley waiting to happen.
Fortunately, this time, we’ll be the ones printing the “Tory Toff” leaflets…
38. Cheeky old sod, age has not dampened your vim and vigour I see.
Sorry to talk US for a second:
Geraldine Ferraro calls Obama ’sexist’ and refuses to back him;
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/geraldine-ferra.html
What a pleasant woman. Perhaps she can run the next by-election for Labour.
32 Reminds me of the Socialist Joy at winning the Spanish Elections - 3 days after the Madrid bombing and 1 day after the funerals.
Socialists have no soul.
…and I dont mean that in the James Brown sense.
36. That’s an absolutely ludicrous criticism of the Lib Dems. When was the last time there was a by-election in a seat where the Lib Dems were distantly in third but the Conservatives were a lot closer? Ipswich would be a good example: the Lib Dems improved but were still in third.
45 - lol
@43:
I wouldn’t be so sure, Rodge.
You know the first thing we do when we kick your sorry asses out in 2010? An enquiry into Iraq.
And when it becomes clearly how many people Tony’s lies killed, maybe deporting him to the Hague won’t seem such a bad idea.
hopefully this poll is right - now it looks like the stain of the Labour party may be dry-cleaned from the British consciousness at least for a few years it’s time for the Lib Dems to step up to the plate and be the decent honest lefty party.
Given the right approach I think we could see two really different but worthwhile parties in British politics and Labour can go back to peddling socialism to the terminally idiotic. People like Roger shouldn’t have to vote for these nasty incompetents - Roger needs a party that will let him feel worthy and a party that will offer hope to Guardian readers everywhere and an emergency port for softy tories like me who wince at the sight of Nicholas Winterton.
46.Meant to add a wee nudge and a
there. 
Just when it looks like Brown is bottoming out.
It get’s even worse for him.
Kevin Maguire on Sky attacking DC saying he wants to cut taxes. You can see the sheer PANIC in his eyes
54 - Oh deary deary me.
54 hahaha.
36. Rather dangerous to write off the LDs. However recent polls - in particular forced choice questions re whether Cameron/ Brown most acceptable as PM - indicate that anti Tory tactical voting should decrease and there could be some anti Labour tactical voting instead.
At least Friday morning will be a good time to bury bad news if there’s any left!
52 “People like Roger shouldn’t have to vote for these nasty incompetents
As Nurse Ratched will tell you, Roger cant vote.
58 - Maybe it will be just a good day to bury Brown
27 - I assume that as a highly paid Director with principles, you choose not to work through a service company with all its financial advantages, but instead pay more than your fair share of tax though PAYE?
For sheer inepititude,this Labour campaign has to go alongside Bermondsey in early 1983-and we know what happened to Peter Tatchell.I can’t take any more,I’m off for a pint or five.Ciao for now
57 I am not writing them off, just astonished at their myopia.
Their enemy is blue, not red. They can’t help themselves.
36 - There are plenty of by-elections where the LDs have not progressed too much. In recent years Leeds Central, Tottenham and Ipswich spring to mind.
Not winning Crewe does not mean the by-election machine is finished.
60. Shovel is at the ready.
65 - I think there will be a long queue…
64. we achieved a 19% swing against labour in Leeds central from Third place. In 1999 when they still had statospheric national poll ratings.
54 - For Cameron it is an aspiration. For Brown it is, apparently, a reality!
As a Tory PPC, I’m truly delighted that things are so much better for us (I’ve been actively involved only since late 1997 for goodness sake) but am I truly alone in beginning to find the Tory tone on this site a little worrying.
Call me a terrible old pessimist but I think we have to recognise that this is a mid term Government on the wrong end of a down turn that looks (thank God) that it may not be too bad. Clearly Brown has lost a huge amount of credibility and is certainly heavily damaged goods, but the electoral arithmetic is still hugely stacked against the Conservatives come a GE and there’s a whole 2 years to go.
Perspective seems to have become a rare commodity for Tory PBers over the last few days.
67 - OK, my mistake. But there are by-elections where we have not done too much. In fact there always have been. People just assume the LDs to come good in every by-election. It’s not the case.
O/T
OBAMA
That socialist side of Obama may scare a lot of potential, independant voters. It’s the US, after all, not a dhimmi country. I wonder how much impact this kind of We-the-State-Will-Interfere into your life will have in November:
For American does not define “leadership” by finding out what FOREIGNERS want from ‘em and then obeying it. They are not serviable dhimmis!
Furthermore, no self-respecting Americans wanna be told what temperature would aliens like ‘em to keep in their home, and how much they shall eat!
No danger at all to the Conservatives in Henley from the Lib Dems because:
a. The Conservatives are starting off at 53% of the vote, so the Lib Dems will need a sizable swing from the Tories to even get close - there just aren’t enough votes elsewhere to squeeze.
b. There’s no pressing reason to ’stop-the-Tory’, as the Conservatives are proving markedly more popular than Labour nationally.
c. If there was a ’stop-the-Tory’ mood nationally, Henley would be just about the last place it would work.
d. There are plenty of reasons to kick the government by voting Tory, rather than Lib Dem.
e. Usually parties suffer when an MP steps down part way through their term, but Boris has a good reason, and in any case, he wasn’t exactly the sort of backbench MP focussed on constituency matters to the exclusion of all else.
There are probably other reasons, but it will be almost impossible to beat a candidate of either main party in a by-election in a safe seat, when that party is riding high in the polls.
69 GeorgeH, lets face it, your not a Tory are you(?)
Me, I’m not a Tory. It’s too much a lefty term. I’m conservative.
63 I have to say that if Bermondsey in the 80s was anything like it is now, then this Labour campaign would have seen them romp home with an increased majority. Just a shame about the one they actually fought…
69 - Agreed. I think people would do well to remember that by-election polls aren’t exactly known for their stunning accuracy.
69 - George, you are wiser than many Tory posters here. I was 12 when David Steel say “Go back to your constituencies…”. Now I think the Tories are likely to be the largest party next election, but you are right to be on your guard.
Really anyone who thinks the LibDems have any chance in Henley is dreaming. Even if it were analogous as a seat with Bromley, the Conservatives will have learnt from any mistakes made and won’t make them again.
71 - so a swing to the Tories then?
70. I apologise for nit picking but I was there. If we weren’t in the tail end of the Ashdown/Blair love in we’d have won the seat and had a Brent East moment 4 years earlier. Its why I have some sympathy with SeanT’s view of our abusive relationship with labour.
69. Ah, let us have our fun. It’s been tough on the right, these last ten/fifteen years. I think everyone is well aware that a General Election will be a Very Different Matter.
That said, I do genuinely believe Labour has had its own Black Wednesday. The national mood has shifted, in a seismic way. The question is whether the Tories will capitalise on it sufficient to get the majority they need, to do what, deep down, we all want Cameron to do - bring back dogfighting, reintroduce the birch, deport anyone with a name that sounds weird, clusterbomb Peter Mandelson etc.
Is there anything worse than LDs being serious and earnest?
Yes, actually. Tories gloating.
I s’pose, if you want to gloat, its as much your site as mine. But could you do it in small type please?
36 Among its many attractions, Henley has a fine masonic hall.
52 What we really need is a realignment of British politics that sees a party led by Nicholas Winterton alternating in government with a party led by David Cameron, with everything else on the fringes.
Does nayone know the actual figures?Has the Tory vote share gone up since the ICM poll or the Labour vote share collapsedMy guess would be something like Tory 47%,Labour 34%.
rogerh
79 Sensible policies for a better tomorrow!
28. My post on the other thread regarding Charles Clarke moving against Brown was pure speculation. However, I can no longer see that Labour’s vulnerable MP’s have any reason not to support a move that will at least result in a leadership contest and may produce a leader that can limit the GE damage more than Brown evidently can.
Labour under Miliband or Johnson for example cannot possibly me more dishonest, incompetent and vision free as Labour under Brown. A leadership contest would probably be bitter and divisive but Miliband or Johnson might drag together enough unity afterwards to keep Labour togetherish to a GE. Brown just can’t do that.
80 Anything worse than Conservatives gloating?
Yes, desperate Labour Campaigns.
I s’pose, if you want to stir hatred, its as much your country as mine. But could you do it in scotland please?
69. It was Mike wot started it with his comment at the end of his intro: “A 13% Tory lead compares with the 16.8% margin that Labour had at the general election and if this was to come about would represent a swing of just under 15%. Anthony Wells’s excellent list of Tory target seats only goes up to the first 200 with the final one requiring a swing of just 10.5%. All this suggests that we could be in landslide territory which could have a dramatic affect on the current domestic political scene - particularly on Gordon’s future.”
It doesn’t at all suggest landslide territory as by-elections as known for wildly exaggerating the way the national picture looks. If a 15% swing was likely on a national scale, C&N would probably be heading towards a 25%+ swing. Rod’s done the figures, but I’d guess that a 15% swing in a by-election is not far out of line with the current polls, which imply a movement of nearer 9% from Con to Lab. That’s still a lot, but then this is still mid-term.
36/45/64/etc. The Lib Dems will be back. When Labour started big by-election wins in 1994 the Lib Dems could still pull them off in seats where they were the main anti-Tory challenger. Wait for a by-election in the North-East or Manchester or Sheffield or similar and the fabled Lib Dem machine will be back.
O/T
OBAMA
—–
“We can’t drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times … and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK,” Obama said.
“That’s not leadership. That’s not going to happen,” he added.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h-wpxs1Re-8vx2Zk5xnYygW1W67w
—–
That socialist side of Obama may scare a lot of potential, independant voters. It’s the US, after all, not a dhimmi country. I wonder how much impact this kind of We-the-State-Will-Interfere into your life will have in November:
For American does not define “leadership” by finding out what FOREIGNERS want from ‘em and then obeying it. They are not serviable dhimmis!
Furthermore, no self-respecting Americans wanna be told what temperature would aliens like ‘em to keep in their home, and how much they shall eat!
A leadership contest would probably be bitter and divisive but Miliband or Johnson might drag together enough unity afterwards to keep Labour togetherish to a GE.
This is key. I can’t see that happening. If Brown gets slung out, the Brownites will devote the rest of this Parliament (and probably the next one) to taking revenge on the Judases who betrayed them. Brownites are such a powerful group within the party that getting rid of the ministerial Vicars of Bray won’t diminish their power.
86. But this is Crewe. Labour heartland not middle England. Makes it all the more amazing.
86 - I would point out that if the Conservatives made 200 gains from the 198 seats they won at the last election they would have a majority of 146.
90 - No it’s Crewe AND Nantwich.
seanT @ 79
I’m with you. It’s been a dark few years and hellish at times. Of course we should be enjoying it. In fact I took a whole bunch of PB threads to my Association meeting last week and based my speech on the stats and polls just how good things were.
But what I’m hearing now begins to remind me of the braying I used to hear at University all those years ago that so put me off becoming involved right of centre politics.
‘Labour Crewesing for a bruising.’
‘A crewes missile hits 10 Downing Street.’
90 - but not all of Crewe is Labour heartland, which is what makes this bye interesting - if all the seat were like Crewe proper, Labour would probably be coming into this bye with a 25-30% majority.
90. The extent to which it’s Labour heartland is debateable. Yes, it’s been Labour for decades, but very nearly went Tory in the ’80s. It’s the sort of seat that will always be vulnerable on a Conservative landslide - or a by-election held on what for Labour are the wrong terms.
82. The Daily Mail is reporting the figures thusly:
“The survey for ComRes has the Tories on 48 per cent, Labour on 35 per cent and the Lib Dems on 12 per cent, just 72 hours before polling begins”
92. Apologies to the good folk of Nantwich.
@93 just “to show” how good things are. Fat finger syndrome.
93 - I think you’ve got to remember that not all the people on here accused of being “Tories” are actually Tories. They are probably on the right, but their main motivation is anti-Labour.
93 - True. I suspect that a genuine swing voter reading this site (and I expect very few to do so) would be put off, rather than encouraged.
90. Not really. As some pointed out back in late April if the Tories got their act together, which they have, and the national polls then were fairly accurate the Tories should take Crewe comfortably. What is good is that the Tories may for the first time
in a very long time be able to demonstate they can perform well at By Elections and this will be very good for party morale.
93. Dude, it’s only a blog!
Besides, I always say: celebrate the good days, cause there are plenty of bad ones to come.
Some posters may be hoping that humble pie is not on the menu if the polls were wrong.
But surely this is just a by-election. The Newbury, dudley West and Eastleigh by elections were far worse. A 16 % in by election is not a general election swing.
Compare Crewe to the tiory by election defeats which were far worse.
Newbury saw a massive 21 thousand vote defeat from 12,000 majority. Crwere is nothing compared to that.
Alex @ 100. Accepted.
Tangent @101. I’m sure very few come here. You’ve got to have a wardrobe full of anoraks to stick with this as many times a day as I (and I suspect most of us) do. I’ve got to get out more.
What were the swings in Bermondsey and Christchurch?
Holy Cow, I have just been watching the first half of Air crash Investigation where a plane ran out of fuel. I return…. 2 polls and disaster awaits. The parallel if not exact is close/…..
Blimey. This really is incredible stuff. The tories 13% ahead in Crewe and Nantwich! Imagine someone saying this a month ago - they’d have been carted off immediately and locked away forever!
Better start buying more Con seats now (or selling Labour). Just checked Sporting Index - surprise, surprise, they’ve suspended. Probably until tomorrow when they’ll undoubtedly open higher… Glad I sold some Labour at 234 yesterday….
108 - 44% and 35%. Now that’s a silly by-election swing. 15% is peanuts against a very unpopular government. Come on Tories,up your game!
Tories on 48 per cent, Labour on 35 per cent and the Lib Dems on 12 per cent, Daily Mail WOW LDs on 12% just like London. 2 party politics is back:))
105. Correct. Even if the result is a 15% swing - and this is just a by-election poll being reported, not the real result - there were some by-election results in the 1992-7 parliament that would still put that very much in the shade.
The best Tory post-war by-election results were posted on here a few days ago. IIRC, the biggest swing ever achieved in that period was about 21%, so C&N could be up there, but other parties have done considerably better.
88 - Seeing as McCain is seen by many in the GOP as a global warming maniac they could vote for a third party instead (well, maybe not Nader).
By the way, his comments are conservative, not socialist, as Cameron’s (and McCain’s) view of the environment is conservative.
It would be useful if you actually considered policy first rather than ideology, you end up ascribing policies to the wrong ideology, as you have done here, if you are ideology driven.
The daily mail seem to have increased the tory lead with all this nasty party stuff. So much for the daily mail being on labours side.
Ave It 2008 - Still here??
We need something even more over the top than LOL!!
I suggest: Rolling on the Floor Laughing out Loud in Absolute Stitches!!!!!
ROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLISROFLOLIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
another good spot sean t
On the ICM poll, I wonder how much the “spiral of silence” adjustment has helped Labour’s position (obviously I doubt that it would be on the scale of the 12%–>4% and 15%–>8% change to the deficits in the ICM C&N polls). It does work as a “swing dampener”, which tends to be correct at small or medium swings, but when the public mood has changed to a very large extent, I feel that it can overdamp the predicted swing (as in 1997, where the swing was uniquely underreported to a minor extent by a point or two).
Effectively, it seems to boost whoever was ahead at the previous elections (so in 1997, the Tories were overreported by a couple of points, in 2001, Labour were significantly overreported and in 2005, Labour were again overreported by a couple of points). Which could imply that 27% is an overreporting of Labour’s true current popularity …
On the C&N poll, I’d have a tendency to agree with ComRes. The ICM spiral of silence has a trusted pedigree in General Elections, but I view it with suspicion in a by-election. After all, it’s not as if the vote is for a new government, so the option for voters who won’t admit to supporting the unpopular party to just stay at home is a lot stronger a draw than in a GE. Which would produce a consistent 12% (ICM1), 15% (ICM2), 13% (ComRes) Tory lead.
I’d say at this point that a Tory gain actually seems overwhelmingly (95%+) probable in this by-election. Which are words that seem rather strange to type …
141 -previous thread-
The eve-of-poll ICM figures published in the Guardian on 30/4/97 were:
Lab 43 - Con 33 - Lab lead 10
Actual 97 Lab 44 Con 31 - Lab lead 13
Therefore , on that occasion ICM did understate Labour’s performance!
69. I suspect that a swing voter would be put off more by self-confessed tories such as yourself who sound strangely downbeat at the turning of the tide, apparently look gift horses in the mouth and don’t seem particularly enthused at the thought of being in government. And that could be much sooner than anyone thinks. If these sorts of poll figures continue it won’t be two years, it won’t even be one, it could be in as little as 4 months (oddly enough back in Jan. on Guido I posited a GE in Oct. That is now a credible possibility.) But the tory party is going to have to want it to happen and to help events along a bit. Repeating a mantra of “but there’s another two years for things to go wrong” is not productive IMO.
119,
I wonder what the ICM score for the 1997 election would have been without spiral of silence adjustment.
Come to think of it, does anyone know what the theoretical ICM scores for 2001 and 2005 would have been without spiral of silence adjustments?
The Daily Mail article that reveals the Comres results:
http://tinyurl.com/5r2rjo
It seems a bit late for Gordon to wash his hands of the smear campaign to me but thats what it claims. Meanwhile Harman fails to go to C&N but still manages to attack marriage. Labour really don’t get it……..
120
Please explain. I cannot see how we will have a GE in the next 4 months.
88. John F Kennedy engaged pretty well with a groundswell of opinion which captured an American mood for understanding the rest of the world. Mind you, he unveiled most of this after he’d won! There’s plenty theory out there at the moment that America will become increasingly isolated and withdraw from world politics over the next few decades. Obama could possible prevent (or delay) that.
118. There’s still money available for the Conservatives at 1.12 on Betfair - certainly value if you regard a Tory win as at least a 95% shot.
116: HAHAHAHAHAHA to the power of Mark Senior!!!!!
119. Here’s the official parliamentary report.
Labour 43.2. Now in my rounding you round down. So Labour 43 and ICM were spot on……
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2001/rp01-038.pdf
125. 1.125 with Ladbrokes also at the moment.
If these sorts of poll figures continue it won’t be two years, it won’t even be one, it could be in as little as 4 months (oddly enough back in Jan. on Guido I posited a GE in Oct. That is now a credible possibility.)
Why? Unless Labour actually splits, it’s not going to be forced into an early GE, unless Labour MPs actually want to lose their seats.
On the wider point, complacency doesn’t win voters; attacking the government, and putting over your own positive policies, do (I don’t think this is ideally the best forum for it, but we can’t avoid it here).
127 - No I think polls are GB (ie exclude NI). In that case the GB figure was 44.3%. That is why the Labour share in 2005 is variously reported as 35 or 36%.
bt @120.
Believe me, I’m as excited as anyone about this. I’ve spent the last 10 long years fighting for the Conservatives and sacrificed a career to do it. In fact most of the time at the moment I walk around with an asinine grin on my face.
It’s just that there’s a tone creeping in on this site that feels to me to be exactly what Cameron has spent the last 2 years working to get out of people’s minds.
GeorgeH makes a good point - I was outside City Hall for the night they announced Boris as Mayor, and as well as a sizeable BNP presence the only other easily distinguishable group were late-twenties Tory Boys, straight out of the 1980’s.
It was amazing to see the swagger and the champagne swigging and the braying and the shouting - I wouldn’t begrudge anyone a victory drink, but the reaction of everyone else (even several [newish, I suspected] Tory voters) was somewhere between astonishment and horror. Many of them looked as though they had given their votes to Cameron’s conservatives for the first time, thinking he was different, and here were Gordon Gecko’s acolytes-in-exile being given back the keys of power.
I don’t think they are typical, and I think the Tories really have changed to a large degree under Cameron. However, if there is one thing that will derail his hopes of becoming PM I think it is a certain type of supporter who has not really changed since the heydays of pro-Apartheid “Greed is good” milton-friedman nuke-the-Ruskies Thatcherism. I’m not passing judgement - just saying that the reaction of most people, including many who are considering voting Tory this time, is to find those Tory Boys repulsive.
That is, for me, the biggest danger of derailment Cameron faces.
129
I wouldnt worry about DC attacking the Govt. I think he has enough ammuntion to last 2yrs. and even if he hasn’t , Gordo or his successor will be bound to give him some. The ineptiutude of New Labour knows no bounds. I remember Potillo saying on This Week that the Cabinet was the weakest in history(or words to that effect) He was not wrong.
Are there any odds on how many mobile phones were smashed today???
132. Interesting. Maybe the ‘toff’ campaign had something in it - hopelessly executed, of course…
125,
1.12 - that equates to about 90% chance, yes? Not far off that 95%.
As I’ve mentioned before, I follow the first maxim of gambling: Never bet what you aren’t willing to lose, so I’ve tended to not betting (having been in a poor financial situation). My financial situation is, however, continuing to improve, so I’ll probably be starting my tentative gambling career quite soon and actually finally putting my money where my (large) mouth is - but I’ll want better value than a 5% or so gap in my personal assessment and the implied market assessment, to be honest.
127 Yes - but those are UK figures - distorted somewhat by the inclusion of Northern Ireland which is not normally polled by the main polling organisations because the same party battle does not take place there. The figures I quote relate to Great Britain only- and are derived from the Polling Report site!
131 Glad to see you are saying Conservatives and not Tory.
If you want to troll as a conservative dont sound too much like a leftie.
131. IMO confidence has been lacking in the party and has made the party unelectable. Now it’s back and it should be encouraged but I agree there is a limit and some caution is required….although it is difficult after years of “torybashing”.
123. Government loses key vote followed by a vote of no confidence.
Or
Brown ousted but party in-fighting delivers an obviously weakened leader who cannot command confidence in party or country.
Or
Labour chooses to hold a GE in an attempt to stop the bleeding - either before or after Brown is ousted.
132 - I think election nights are a pretty poor time to take a snapshot of any political party. I have heard of people of all political persuasions going way over the top at counts or upon declarations. Largely alcohol and adrenaline fuelled, I try to take no notice of it.
135. Agree. Betting at prices like 1/8 isn’t great long-term. It only needs to go wrong occasionally - and usually does - at those prices to destory hard-won profits. Obama to be president and Cons to win most seats at the next election, whilst both odds on, do appear to offer value. Best to have a credit account for long-term bets, so you can keep the stake in the bank rather than lend it to the bookie…
137 Don’t be pig or horse ignorant George H is a Conservative PPC and many of us know his full name .
139 - There is no way on earth that Labour would lose a vote of no-confidence, even Major never lost a no-confidence motion and he faced one with no majority in Parliament.
I agree with GeorgeH about the gloating but I can understand it after the depression of the last decade. All those people saying the brand is so tainted it can never recover (where are they now).
Let us not forget last summer though. Nothings won until Dave is walking into Number 10.
140 excpt the BBC where champagne corks were popping. That is worth noting////
It doesn’t matter what the swing is, the tories first by-election gain from this government will be a momentous occasion, although not as important as winning the London mayoralty.
142 Great but why should I listen to you?
@132:
As one of the “twenty-something Tories” that was outside City Hall that night, I have to wonder if it’s really so hard for you to be gracious in defeat. We were *celebrating*. There’s no great crime in that.
As for “braying”, well that’s another one of those stupid class war bullshit phrases your people are resorting to in desperation, like “Tory Boy” and “Toff”. Frankly, it’s undignified.
143. Doesn’t the Lisbon Treaty have to come back from the Lords?
What will the Libdems do when it does?
135. There’s a big difference between 90% and 95%. It is 5% but look at the difference in the return. A successful bet will return double what you believe to be the true value.
Personally, I don’t particularly like going for bets at such short odds (especially now, having come close to losing a fair amount of money last year after laying 2007 for the date of the next election), but if you do, then the returns are very favourable.
147. George is PPC for Meon Valley and has posted on here for a long time.
134 - It was a mistake to run it when Tamsin Dunwoody has not exactly been down the mines, and when Timpson isn’t a classic toff. However, I think this will become a theme, because it is one of the biggest weaknesses Cameron has, even though I think it unjustified.
If I were the Conservatives - I’d stop pretending it doesn’t matter, or complaining that it is inverse snobbery. If people have any tendecy towards class envy, then hearing the better off complain that they are being prejudiced against will not work.
The theme should be ‘yes we are lucky in our backgrounds, and we therefore owe a debt of service’ - ‘we wish to see our experience given to all children’ - just being honest about it will likely win more support than refusing to acknowledge there is an issue.
Some policies concentrating on aggressive equality of opportunity and anti-nepotism wouldn’t hurt either. (eg State funding with no strings attached for full scholarships on merit alone to comprise a third of places at every private school in the country schools )
Like it or not, it is not healthy for only a couple of MPs to know what it is like to live on a less than average wage, or in an undesirable area - there is a genuine danger in having a political class completely removed from the experience of normal people. Pretending it doesn’t matter at all will fail - addressing the issue of differentiated class would be wiser in my view.
the devon loft @ 138. A shrewd comment. Confidence has been lacking for sure.
141 You don’t need much money to make a profit on Betfair just lots and lots of bets . I am all green on C&N £ 76 Conservative £ 2 Labour £ 15 LibDem and £ 212 ANO
Total bets
Cons laid £ 3,296 average 1.25
Lab laid £ 794 average 5.4
LibDem laid £ 157 average 26.4
ANO laid £ 4 at 1000
plus a few bets to win totalling £ 100
Around 13% of all the bets on Betfair in this markwt
Anybody calcuated what 48% 35% 12% would actually mean in terms of a Conservative majority in this seat?
Also, is it not possible that ComRes are overstating Labour (as we saw in the London election, with the phone pollsters) and the real gap will be even bigger?
153 - I disagree, I think the ‘it makes no difference’ line is the better option. I really get more than a little incencsed when I hear people say things like “People should get places on merit not on who their parents are” when what they tend to mean is “Some people shouldn’t get anywhere, even on merit, because of who their parents are”
Marc Ambinder reports another two SD’s for Obama - Cindy Spanyers and Blake Johnson both of Alaska.
……………….
154 George. Nice to see you back posting.
156 - Depends what the turnout is.
148 You dont have to listen to me just admit what we all know that you are a prat
156 - The majority on these figures depends on turn-out.
Yes it is possible the gap will be bigger. It is also possible the gap will be smaller.
139 - I cannot see any situation where Labour loses an explicit vote of confidence: it’d be the end of those MPs’ careers, as they would be immediately expelled from the party and would be unlikely to hold their seats unless the opposition parties decided to support them. Similarly, post-dethronment infighting is unlikely to result in an immediate GE, unless the party is actually on the brink of splitting in an 1931/SDP style (and factional jostling won’t be enough in itself to achieve that). Labour is pretty unlikely, in the current situation, to plunge into a GE unless they’ve got a good reason for doing so.
151,
Yeah, but I’m also a firm believer in margins of error
If I’m out by 5% (and I’m not by any means infallible, as my teenage daughter will not hesitate to point out), I’ll lose the value in the long term.
I believe that it’s 95%+.
So, with my personal fallibility awareness head on, I’d look for odds that reflect (say) an implied probability of 80% or so. Gives me plenty of elbow room for error. And with the size of political markets, these kind of value bets seem to be actually available. Mike’s great at spotting them.
And, as I say, in a month or two, I’ll be in a position to front up for those kinds of bet.
(Sadly, William Hill online don’t seem to have any political bets other than US election/candidates available, which is a shame because I’ve got a small anmount of (free) money in a willhill account and a promise of a “put £10 in and get a £10 free bet” at the moment - and that would be enough to tempt me into a C&N bet.
In fact, a C&N bet would be perfect for (very probably) securing that free tenner.
I don’t suppose anyone here could influence William Hill to put a C&N market online?)
149 - Braying always sounds undignified even if you call it celebrating.
@160:
We try not to, but you have an alarming habit of popping up with your unique band of nonsense regardless.
156 One of the big problems with byelection polls is that there is often a bandwagon effect in the last week .
166 lol does that mean con will win by 50%??????!
149 - Martin.
You’re off base with your defence. I’m not begrudging anyone a celebration just trying to pass on an experience.
The term ‘braying’ was used by people I spoke to that night, and I was trying to explain that there were people, including new Conservative voters’ who were uneasy with the manner of the celebrations - not because anyone was doing anything wrong, but because it represented a type of Conservatism that i suspect they didn’t support in the 1980’s and that they thought was different now. Those celebrations were strikingly reminiscent of previous Conservative victories, and that made them uneasy.
I thought I had posted often enough for people to know that I am non-partisan, so ‘your people’ and ‘your defeat’ are both wrong.
I am sorry you find Tory (which I didn’t think was derogatory), ‘toff’ and ‘braying’ rude - they were shorthand for more complex respnses. I am comfortable using a whole range of terms that are used in partisan disputes because they help me describe what people were saying and thinking that night. People were genuinely turned off the Conservatives by the way that some Tory boys celebrated that night, and I thought the anecdote tied in well with what GeorgeH was saying. No offence was meant.
156 - Further to my earlier reply, and assuming a turnout of say 50% we would be looking at something like 4,500 I think.
If the Tories get anything like the swing suggested by this poll Brown’s departure is inevitable. He could well be out within the week.
Gosh, golly. Have just logged on after some period off.
The bleeding fist iconography juxtaposed against Tories and Yobs. Straight from Goebbels handbook.
Juvenile Toff slating is one thing, but this kind of facist material is simply terrible. Bring back Michael Howard- Labour is sinking to new levels of populism.
Please people in Crewe vote Tory. Labour deserve to be demolished, preferably with that bleeing fist!
165 Well listen to bolted horse instead you have much in common with him
164:
My primary recollection was of cheers (AT A COUNT! OH NOES!), a few chants of “Boris!”, and jeering at the BNP.
To turn it into “braying” is to show either that Morus was/is an extremely bad loser, unable to bear happy Tories, or indulging in the same imbecilic class war twattery that’s lead to Labour’s C&N leaflets.
And this hole “straight out of the eighties” thing is ridiculous. I was TWO YEARS OLD when the Blessed Margaret ascended.
So, we won’t know what kine of majority the Conservatives are going to get until Thursday night? Its going to be exciting stuff!
166. Where’s the LD bandwagon? Time to call the AA!
153. Morus, I agree that it isn’t healthy to have only a few who have had to fight their way to the top but in reality it is a failing that all the Major Parties have. How many senior Labour and Libdem politicians have privileged upbringings? Blair, Brown, Harman, Balls, Clegg.
By the way where you say:
The theme should be ‘yes we are lucky in our backgrounds, and we therefore owe a debt of service’ - ‘we wish to see our experience given to all children’ - just being honest about it will likely win more support than refusing to acknowledge there is an issue.
This is exactly what Cameron has said recently unlike Brown and Dunwoody and their ‘one of us’ act.
Has anyone else seen this video?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7409056.stm
Good god, what a vile woman.
160 hmm, but you are irrelevent, as are your insults.
Jack W @ 158. Likewise though I profess to being a little confused as to your exact composition. There seems to be less ARSE and more mouth. Where’s the cracked pot got to? Its award is surely due.
Have you been to the Fiddichside Inn in Craigellachie yet? The redoubtable Dorothy is now 85 (and so probably at school with you) and will not survive much longer.
Will do doubt return to “lurkage” shortly as my fingers gradually weaken.
153, 157 - My take on it is similar to James with a twist. A priori where somebody comes from shouldn’t matter. However Cameron has made himself an issue. He has tried to present himself as an ordinary bloke, with a family who is in tune with people’s concerns. It is similar to politicians bringing their families into politics, it makes them more vulnerable to attacks.
I don’t see why Cameron should be allowed a free run to present himself in a most favourable light. Given that his background and life experiences go against the image he is presenting (he has been very priveleged and not faced the challenges most people have) it is fair game to point this out. A better and more honest strategy for Cameron would be to be open about his priveleges and say he wants a Britain where everyone has the opportunities he had. He did this with the Eton comment in his conference speech.
However portraying himself as a common man is false and there is nothing wrong with Labour pointing that out. This is especially the case given how personal the Conservatives have been in their attacks on Gordon Brown.
169. Thanks James.
170. Remember, Parliament will not be sitting next week, due to the Whitsun break (I wonder if Brown had this at the back of his mind when he chose the sate for the by election?) So, I would think that gives him a weeks grace, before the Westminster poltting starts in earnest.
If Brown can survive June, I think he’ll last the course (Or at least until the Labour conference in September)
177 Pathetic.
Mum’s still not cold. Tamsin still smiling.
171 Blimey, Tyson, is that really you? Who would you vote for if you had the [good][mis]fortune to live in Crewe and/or Nantwich?
@177:
Moira Tamsin McCharver Dunwoody-Kneafson ProleBacon - ONE OF US [foul, lying, bitter, class-war fuelled hacks]
132.George, you are entitled to be a touch pessimistic, I think that all candidates suffer from that ailment at regular intervals. Its perfectly naturally, you are the brave ones who put your name up there to be counted on election night.
Much easier for us non candidates to get too excited on the political blogs at times.
166 etc The LD by election record was broken at Ealing Southall the first time in 20 or so years when they failed to defeat the Govt candidate from 2nd place.
If the LDs get a 3rd place at C&N and fail at Henley then the rationale for a central staff and CEO that are 90% geared up for by elections ends. Where do they then go?
177 - I wonder if Mr Timpson got to respond to any of that?
Tamsin McCharver Dunwoody-Kneafson…
“I dont live in a 1.5 million pound house. My house in Wales is only worth 1.4million”
ChrisD @ 185. My agent calls it “Candidatitis”. She told me about a cream that helps and I’ve tried rubbing it in but it doesn’t seem to make me less gloomy.
@168:
I don’t believe you, sorry. What you mean is, there were a group of bitter, defeated Labourites outside city hall, and you were all fuelled with rage at seeing our cheering.
Thus you started mumbling words like “bray” and “toff” and “Thatcher” at each other as a way of making yourselves feel better.
But, now, due to some deluded false memory syndrome, your Labourite words have become wrongly implanted in the minds of random “floating voters” that just happened to be standing outside City Hall, and were curiously willing to express their feelings at you.
181 OK - within 2 weeks. But I expect the calls for him to “consider his position” to start by the weekend - I assume they are being discussed by MPs now. They are certainly being discussed by the party members I know.
179 My dear George many on here say my mouth is indistinguishable from my ARSE !! ….. and as for the delectable Dot I fear Mrs Jack would have a terrible revenge should my eyes wander toward a youthful 85 year old !!
173 - Martin, you’re out of order. I am neither a bad loser (I didn’t lose) nor engaging in ‘class war twattery’ - I was just trying to describe the experiences of a range of people that I spoke to - I think it is worrying for the Conservative Party that it has supporters so unable to see themselves as others do, and so out of step with the changes that Cameron is trying to make, that they risk doing the perceptions of their party harm.
You may not like the terms, but they were pretty apt on the evening for some of those guys (I don’t know if you were with the group I mean or not) - if they are typical of you and your group I’d look at ways to soften that image rather than decry anyone who dares point out that it might not be in your party’s interests.
I’ve got to say, at the back of my mind, I’ve kind of been thinking that having Tamzin fight this by election, so soon after her mums death is kind of weird. I mean, the way she looks and acts, its almost as though shes not been affected by her mums passing. Obviously that can’t be true, but I know if/when my mum dies, I doubt I’ll be good for anything for weeks. Tamzin Dunwoody must be a very good actress, because inside she’s got to be in pieces?
173 - Martin, calm down. Morus is one of the most fair-minded and reasonable posters on here. He is just relaying his impressions of what he saw and the comments of others he spoke to. Fair enough if you don’t agree but there is no need for personal attacks.
If I were a Tory I’d take his comments on board. It is always useful to here the views of people with different perspectives, it means you see things and learn things you otherwise wouldn’t.
173. There is something inherently unattractive about privileged tory boys celebrating the downfall of a mayor who has spent his entire political life championing the causes of the less-privileged.
I don’t blame them for celebrating but that’s just the way a lot of people will see things.
@193:
Well forgive me for being cynical that these random “new Tory voters” you just happened to be talking to just happened to insult my friends, and they just happened to be using exactly the kind of class war phrases that Labour are now trialling in C&N.
You’ll forgive me all of this, I assume, because you’re gracious in defeat.
193 - I knew I should have waited for Morus to respond himself. Far more elegant than I could ever manage.
196:
CON
RULE
EVERYTHING
194 - I don’t think everyone reacts in the same way to grief - and the discipline of politicians is often quite strong.
196. But who will see it. It’s only “us” types loitering around the counts!
185: His website says “property investor” no wonder he’s miserable :lol:.
I am generally in favour of free markets, but the idea that you can get rich by buying something, sitting on your a*se and watch it “increase in value” due solely to the stupidity of others fuelling an investment bubble, egged on by irresponsible banks and a reckless government is fairly unpleasant. The “value” you accrue is merely someone else’s debt. Well it wouldn’t make me proud put it that way.
Nothing personal in this, just an observation. The really sad part is that plenty of Johnny-come-latelys to the BTL bandwagon, mainly amateurs, are going to get their fingers seriously burned on the absurd promise that “house prices can only go up” from the likes of idiotic tory-advising Kirstie Allsopp. Ugh.
132 George H, fighting LDs requires a relentless well organised professional system.
@193:
I’m ‘privileged’ am I, you patronising tool?
Clearly, it still stings even now, doesn’t it? You and Morus and other Labour types will no doubt be bitterly passing around shocking true tales of the “The braying toffs of City Hall” for years to come.
190 - I’ve denied being a Labour voter, and am perfectly happy to see Boris as Mayor - are you calling me a liar?
I spoke to a whole range of people that night, voters from every group including the BNP, to guage how they thought about the assumed result. Everyone there was pretty friendly, and seemed happy to strike up conversations about the race and their views on the candidates. Some of those were (I suspected) usually floating voters who had supported Boris this time around. Then there were the very obvious Conservatives.
Were the Labour voters bitter, and using class war language? Yes. Were the firm Conservatives very vocal? Absolutely. I don’t get the impression you mingled as much - you’re too partisan by the sounds of it - but I did, and you’d be surprised at quite how negative even Conservative voters were about the ‘Tory Boys’. You weren’t a very appealing group that evening - I’m sorry to be the one to tel you so.
186 Unfortunately HF your premiss is false , the LibDems had unsuccessfull campaigns in many byelections in the last 20 years , Paisley South , Beckenham in 1997 , Eddisbury , Hamilton South , Wigan , Ken and Chelsea in 1999 , Preston and Falkirk West in 2000 , Ogmore in 2002 , all within the last 11 years interspersed with good results .
190. Martin, you are in danger of making Morus’ point for him.
177. Dreadful stuff.
189.
Good luck.
Yesterday I forecast Cons 52, Labour 33 , Lib Dems 11
Moving ever closer to that
206 - But not from 2nd place, MarkS.
200. Maybe. It just seems a bit, I don’t know, tasteless? I don’t know if this is something the people of Crewe will have picked up on, but for me personally it all seems a bit…. heartless, almost as though these people are not in touch with reality somehow?
183- Augustus- I worked in Crewe some years ago.
Yes- it was appalling that Labour pushed through the writ so quickly. It was arrogant that they picked the daughter of the deceased MP. It was incompetent that they resorted to the Toff campaign so soon after BJ won London.
But to cap it all- that bleeding fist. Nasty, right wing, facist iconography that I hoped never to see from one of our mainstream parties.
I have just cashed in £600 notes of my US political monies and put it on the nose on the Tories on Thursday to get 10% back. Look on betfair- the Tories have dropped to 1.08- my doing.
At this moment in time Labour deserves to get stuffed. And yes if I was in Crewe on Thursday I would vote Tory, no problem whatsoever.
212. Don’t forget Nantwich. I got a rollocking from Alex earlier!!
207 He already has .
Jon C @ 202. We’re doing fine thanks. A colleague and I buy and improve very run down but well placed modest properties in a part of Gloucestershire. As such we always add considerable value and return otherwise uninhabitable properties to the lower end of the rental market.
Profit with a conscience! You should be a fan of that surely? Almost a New Labour mantra.
211 We are not in 2nd place in Crewe , Tangent
177 “Has anyone else seen this video?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7409056.stm
Good god, what a vile woman.
Smiling Tamsim Dunwoody-Kneafsy, who recently lost her mother, is quick to talk about others’ property but goes quiet when attention is drawn to her own mansion.
Hardly the struggling unemployed single mother living in council flat type she thought she was portraying.
Hypocrite. She deserves to lose and remain on the dole.
@207:
Would you be happy if random Labourites, as part of their new strategy, portrayed your friends in the same way?
@205:
I don’t know who you are, or how you vote, Morus. But you can surely understand why I’m being cynical that you claim that outside City Hall, you were by sheer coincidence planted firmly planted amongst a block of representative, garrulous swing voters, all of whom simultaneously started using exactly the kind of class-war loaded phrases that has become the hallmark of Labour campaiging?
213 - I wonder if that sort of reaction will be prevalent in Crewe and Nantwich itself. If so this could be nightmare bad for Gordon.
@215:
Mr Senior, with very little respect, I doubt you’d spot a ‘point’ if it shat in you breakfast.
The Birmingham seats are being reconfigured next time. McCabe isn’t actually standing in the new Hall Green, he’s standing in the new Selly Oak, because the new Selly Oak contains more of the existing Hall Green than the new Hall Green.
The new Selly Oak is Tory target #185.
212 - GIN. Nobody can know how Tamsin is feeling but her and the rest of the family. Maybe the campaign is a form of displacement, a way in which she feels she can honour the memory of her mother. Who knows? As Tangent says people react in different ways to grief and there is nothing worse than people thinking they know better about how you should grieve. To be honest I find the speculation quite unneccessary.
The Slate “Hillary Deathwatch” slips to 1.6% !!!
http://www.slate.com/id/2191697/
…………………
Interesting to note that Obama has 3 campaign stops in red state Montana today. 50 state strategy already in play.
@223:
Labour hack finds speculation about Tamsin Dunwoody’s reprehensible behaviour “unnecessary” shocker.
222 nailed on con gain then!!!!!!!!!!
Con maj 10,000 selly oak!!!!!!!!!
No Lab seats south of rotherham!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
221 - Now you definitely have made Morus’ point for him!
173 - Martin, calm down. Braying is simply a sign of being a knob. I don’t know whether you were braying or not but even fully paid up Tories like me know what Morus means by braying and every time a swing voter sees a group doing it we lose votes.
Morus is just saying as he sees it, and if you behaved like you are doing tonight on here then I dare say he was right.
218 - I wonder has she been unemployed ever since she was sacked by the people of Wales?
331 I expect very little respect from the archetypal new nasty Tory Boy you clearly are .
Conservative were comfortable ahead in the new Selly Oak locals, winning every ward apart Selly Oak itself (LD).
196 - There were plenty of ordinary voters and random tourists looking bemused by what was happening outside City Hall. It’s a very public place rather than an election hall count.
226 No premiership football in Watford !!!!!!!!!!!!!
No Tories in Watford save for Ave it !!!!!!!!!!!!!
GIN, I thought we had learned after the Princess Di fiasco that people deal with grief in different ways; some get maudlin, some get hysterical, some bottle it up and others let it all hang out. Admittedly, I hadn’t considered being a candidate in a crucial by election as part of that list, but there you go!
@231:
Well, it doesn’t surprise me that you would consider attempting to defend one’s friends to be ‘nasty’.
228 In his case the braying is a sign of him having a very little knob
There’s a lot of insults flying around tonight.
When you strip away the Power from lefties, all that is left is spite.
224 - Montana is one of the few states still left in the primaries.
225 - Criticisms of her campaign tactics are perfectly legitimate. Enquiries into how she has dealt with the death of her mother are unnecessary though.
236
what a childish post, but i would expect nothing less from you.
235 - Some battles are not worth fighting, Mr C, you have one opinion Morus et al have another.
237 - The Tories on here of course are never spiteful!
219 - I’m asking you to take on trust that I am non-partisan, and I don’t see why you think I’d be making this up unless I was a troll or astroturfer.
I was outside City Hall from 7pm until 1am - in six hours, I must have talked to over 200 people. The sample of responses I gave in anecdote is not representative - rather the ones that were most pertinent and relative to the point that GeorgeH brought up.
The Labour people *were* droning on with class war phrases, but it was not just them who used ‘Tory boys’ (which used to be a badge of pride in the 80s, even if you weren’t old enough to be one then!) or ‘braying’ which was, I’m afraid to say, the perfect way to describe the loud, triumphalist laughing and shouting in well-educated accents. It was meant in a disapproving way, not with class hatred, by some of the people there and I think that should be recognised by the Conservative Party.
I’m sorry you think I am lying, though I can’t see why you would think I’d bother - longest incubation period of an astroturfer in history? - I wonder if it is just easier for you to deride this as class-hatred Labour-spin rather than look at the damage that could potentially be done by a certain type of supporter that may (possibly) include yourself. If so, there is only one sort of dishonesty here, and it wears a blue rosette.
I didn’t want this to drag on - I don’t like being called a liar or being accused of things that are not the case, but I’ve explained as best I can. I leave it to you to decide if there’s any lesson to be learnt for your party - I think there could be a problem, but ultimately it is for you and your friends to decide.
@237:
The odd thing is, these people then have the audacity, after having spitefully insulted my friends, then attempt to make it look as if I am the one at fault for being bothered by it in the first place.
Perhaps it’s just the all-encompassing awfulness of Mark Senior that’s making me angry.
222 - Frankly i could see the Conservatives doing very well in Brum at the next election and, if the current trend amoungst many white, working class voters were to be continued, some results could border on the spectacular… of course, there are some pretty big “ifs” involved in all of that
224 Kieran. Indeed …. but 3 stops !! I think the polling has been tighter in the Obama/McCain match-ups. Only 3 electoral votes but hey what the heck !!
stephen pound on newsnight….. the reason labour will lose heavily. a more grotesque figure its hard to imagine
244 - Edgbaston will be tantamaount to a cert I would have thought.
246. Cannon fodder being rolled out.
191. nickc. For a little while you and I and a few others, whose numbers increase by the day, have been arguing that things can only get better if Brown is replaced.
My position is simply based on my own analysis and observation. You state that this is the view of Labour party members you have spoken to. I suspect this will be the mechanism for the toppling of Gordon Brown. A groundswell of Labour party members disappointment in the current leadership transmitted to the MPs who then nudge the grey/red suits.
I hope I am right because, for all my profiteering on the deficiencies of Gordon Brown, I still hope Labour can salvage something from the present debacle by ditching Brown and choosing better.
Biggest Tory swings since the War…
22.6% Walsall North by-election, 1976
21.2% Dudley by-election, 1968
20.9% Ashfield by-election, 1977
The biggest swings any government has suffered and gone on to recover and win the next election are:
21.3% Mid-Staffordshire, 1990 [but only because they dumped Thatcher]
16.2% Edmonton, 1948
15.0% Brecon & Radnor, 1985
12.9% Southend East, 1980
12.6% Monmouth, 1991 [treating Major separately to Thatcher]
12.2% Warwick & Leamington, 1957
9.1% Preston, 2000
8.6% Leyton, 1965
5.6% Shoreditch & Finsbury, 1954
The above ignore artifactual Lab-Con swings generated by huge swings to the Libs or Nats, where the Con/Lab vote collapsed.
The point of no return seems to be about >20%; only the defenestration of Thatcher after Mid-Staffs helped the Tories avoid this fate in 1991/2.
To be really in with a chance of a majority next time the Tories should be looking for more than a 15% swing, for as the above list indicates, governments have regularly recovered from swings below this level…
245 - If Obama wins comfortably i.e. by 10 points or more nationally he could win a number of the nothern plains states (Montana, Nebraska, SD, ND)
236 LOL top quality debate tonight!!!!!!
246 - I quite like Stephen Pound, his maiden speech was one of the wittiest I have heard.
Philip Hammond being demolished now by Paxman on Newsnight.
180 Kieran. Did you make the same comments about Blair in 1997? I do not recall any apologies from Blair about his priveleged background - nor did I expect any. Hopefully, in 5 years time, we shall know whether Cameron is the best man for the job, which is all that matters. I even thought Blair was for a short time.
@242:
Oh, okay then, I apologise then. With more context, I can see what you’re saying is fair.
We certainly were celebrating around midnight, for about 20 minutes. Some cheers, some occasional “Boris!” and then we legged it to Millbank. But it’s a count. Some high spirits are to be expected. And there were sore, angry Labour-folken there too, cos we saw them.
However, Morus, when you look at the glee that Mark Senior leaped on your story with, you can see that in his mind, we were all horseback, in top hats, and literally braying like donkeys. This is, of course, not entirely accurate.
From my perspective, I am simply trying to defend the honour of my friends- decent, hard-working local activists, indulging in a brief moment of catharsis. Not gallumphing hooray Henries.
Sorry to have precipitated a spat between two top quality PBers. Time gentlemen?
Anyway, it’s called for me.
Night all.
247 - Conservatives are starting from a very solid base in the city that’s for sure and Edgbaston in particular… Northfield, Selly Oak even Hall Green and Erdington could all see interesting results, Erdington is a seat that i think has the capacity to really surprise folks.
Morus- I just don’t get it with some Tories. They don’t just want to win, but to humiliate the opposition, and to kinda gloat in their opposition looking miserable.
Led to the Hang Mandela stuff in the 80’s/90’s- they had their hands on all forms of power, but still wanted to belittle the lefties.
Crowing, braying and arrogant Toryboys.
254 - Ooh I missed that. He’s not a top performer. Hammond I mean, Paxo is.
Newsnight tomorrow dedicated wholly to C & N by-election.
LOL! Who was that muppet put up by the Conservatives on Newsnight just now? Paxman absolutely skewered him on the fabled economic cycle! Great fun!
@259:
You see, Morus, this is the kind of thing I was kicking back against. Not you.
Please take it as read that I consider you a better person than Tyson and Senior. You have no need to resort to bitterness.
255 - To be fair, it’s different for Labour. Labour leaders from relatively privileged backgrounds aren’t seen as defending that privilege (although Attlee, for example, was quite happy to promote people just because they were Old Haileyburians, or to appoint an Etonian Chancellor, succeeded by an all-Wykehamist Treasury team).
If Conservatives are gloating - and I’m not sure they are, there must also be an equal/opposite behaviour in Lefties.
There is definitely a sense of panic amongst the lefties.
Conservatives can accept defeat but these lefties, they are facing the abyss.
255 - If it is a competition Cameron is more priveleged than Blair. However I would have had no problem with the Conservatives raising it as an issue if they felt it to have helped their cause. Politicians can’t have it both ways. They can’t bring in their personal lives and sell it as an asset and then complain when opponents highlight other aspects of their life stories.
254 and 260 yes Hammond is as hapless as ever. Time he was removed.
Newsnight stated Comres has
C = 45
Lab = 32
LD = 12
Very similar to the recent London squeeze of the LDs.
213. Tyson would vote Tory?!?!?!
Casino is speechless. And going to bed to recuperate!
To add to toryboy debate-yes,it is unattractive and,yes,I probably am one.
That’s why I do my braying online
And mark? I have a massive nob.
258 - I would have thought that it would have to be a very good year for anything other than Edgbaston to drop into the Conservatives column. Erdington looks way beyond reach really unless something weird and interesting happens.
256 - And I apologise if you thought I was trying to insult your friends. That wasn’t my intention. I was just trying to point out the dangers in a certain type of celebration that can be seen as triumphalist - if for no other reason than it *does* get jumped on by people who are opposed to you. I think that is a real weakness for the Conservative Party when they are trying to show they are the new caring inclusive party.
It is admirabe that you defend the honour of your friends, and I didn’t mean to overstate the case. Apologies for any offence caused. Good night!
test
Re 90, Tangent “This is key. I can’t see that happening. If Brown gets slung out, the Brownites will devote the rest of this Parliament (and probably the next one) to taking revenge on the Judases who betrayed them. Brownites are such a powerful group within the party that getting rid of the ministerial Vicars of Bray won’t diminish their power.”
I am no longer sure that is true. It was based on the theory that Brown was our messiah and when he takes power triumphantly he will grant us much as well as smite the Tory foe. Now that it can be shown he may not smite the Tory foe in quite the way expected I suspect that a few Brownites are wondering off quietly whistling to themselves as if they never had anything to do with him.
266. “If it is a competition Cameron is more priveleged than Blair. However I would have had no problem with the Conservatives raising it as an issue if they felt it to have helped their cause.”
Remember Howard saying to Blair something like “This grammar school boy will not take any lessons from that public school boy…”
265 - Kinnock displayed the opposite behaviour at the last Labour conference when he talked of ‘grinding the b******s into dust’.
258 - I know what you mean about Erdington, Ben, and this May’s results certainly should give Sion Simon pause for thought, but I’d still be expecting it to stay Labour, although it will look more like a marginal than a safe seat. Northfield, Selly Oak, and Hall Green are definitely in play. Only Hodge Hill, Ladywood and Perry Barr are Labour bankers now.
272 - Was a good line.
260 et al, To be honest I thought Hammond did OK(ish) on a sticky wicket - but then that is probably a judgement shaped by the prevailing mood of the times. An interesting example of how the fabled “narrative” becomes self-fulfilling, maybe?
266 “If it is a competition Cameron is more priveleged than Blair. ”
What a ridiculous statement. The school playground is the only other place where how much money y’r mum and dad earn is important.
Tip. When in a hole, stop digging.
mark-care to comment on the size of my nob?
Enough p*ssyfooting around. You’re a clown Martin and with each post you define and elevate Morus’s argument. I suspect few outside your immediate Tory Boy circle would even give you the time of day.
Brrr, unpleasant polls! The only point I’d make is that they are essentially the same thing - each institute in turn is reporting a national Tory lead in the 10-20 range, and there’s no point in treating each one in turn as an astonishing *new* development. And as David Herdson has pointed out, the C&N poll is pretty much in line with what you’d expect from that, though IMO the margin will be narrower than 13%.
I don’t think anyone’s mentioned what’s happening on the embryology stuff. We’ve had day 1 of 2, and animal-human embryology and saviour siblings were passed with large majorities and I think solid support from all the front benches. It’s hard to tell as you go through the lobbies, but my impression was that the pros were the front benches, the Cameroons and nearly all non-Catholic Lab/Lib members; the antis were the traditionalist Tories and the Catholics. All quite good-humoured - Cameroon MPs joking that as soon as they saw Edward Leigh’s name on the anti-hybrid amendment they knew how to vote without having to look at the text; traditionalists shrugging it off, having seen it coming.
Tomorrow has ‘need for a father’ making it harder for gay women to get IVF (rumoured to have a chance of passing as Cameron is making it his concession to the traditionalists) and abortion, including my amendment. The Bill then goes into committee for the uncontroversial bits before emerrging for Report and Third Reading a month or two hence.
All getting a bit heated on here tonight. Early night for me, i think.
@ City Hall 2nd May. I was there on the night and spotted a load of Labour activists wearing red T-shirts proclaiming “Bollocks to Boris”. When the Mayoral result was announced one of them shouted “The fascists are back in in London”. This was before the Barnbrook Assembly result came in so it was a disgusting smear.
And this is supposed to put people off the *Tories*?
The only drunken braying I heard was one Tory who said he was a nurse and got, shall we say, tired and emotional about it when some middle-class Labourite got onto the glories of the abolition of the 10p rate. The rest was exuberance engendered and excused by the fact of winning control of London for the first time since 1981.
@ Martin Coxall. Please don’t make these people’s points for them. But I can see why you, like I, are fed up of being labelled “Tory Boy” by people who’ve never met one.
271 - It’s much deeper than that, though; it’s based on Brown’s long wooing of Labour’s grassroots throughout Blair’s period in office, building on his considerable standing before that. Even given his current standing, that sort of attachment isn’t going to vanish overnight.
off to bed..
Tyson comment at 213 that he’d vote Tory has totally knocked me over!!
know the words to the ‘blue flag’ comrade?
281. It will get worse. Labour haven’t lost the seat yet. Just wait till they cant pretend any longer.
Must have been watching a different Newsnight, as Paxman’s point was completely irrelevant - though it would have helped if Hammond had told him so. What stage of the economic cycle the UK is at when the Tories come to power is beside the point; the commitment is that spending and taxation will be a lower share of GDP by the time the economic cycle next reaches the same stage.
Hammond hardly covered himself in glory, but nor was it a KO for Paxman.
Quiz:
What does Erdington have in common with C&N?
And as David Herdson has pointed out, the C&N poll is pretty much in line with what you’d expect from that, though IMO the margin will be narrower than 13%.
Thanks for that, Nick - although it’s a bit naughty to quote you
259.”Morus- I just don’t get it with some Tories. They don’t just want to win, but to humiliate the opposition, and to kinda gloat in their opposition looking miserable.”
Tyson, being a Conservative in Scotland for the last 15 years has not always been a barrel of laughs, everyone wanted to humiliate us in spades. We were left without an MP in 97 for heavens sake, I remember the humility of the other parties at that sight!!!
I also think that like the Conservatives back in the 80’s, the New Labour project would have rejoiced in finally grinding the main opposition party into the dust.
I have seen the best and worse of behaviour from all strands of the political parties over the last 25 years. I find a braying/smug/chippy tory as much a turn off as the identikit Labour/SNP or Libdem. And if we are really honest, there is a minority in every party which makes fellow members embarrassed or ashamed.
280
80
” what’s happening on the embryology stuff.”
I am astonished that so-called Conservative would vote ‘yes’ to technologies aiming at producing cybernetico-biotechnic mutants.
Cameron is clearly wrong here.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1316410,00.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-vote-against-ban-on-hybrid-embryos-830969.html?r=RSS
by Philippe Magnan May 19th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Re 280, Nick palmer “Tomorrow has ‘need for a father’ making it harder for gay women to get IVF”
I am not entirely sure the “gay” community are behind removing the need for a father, or at least that seemed to be what I picked up from a conversation with Chris A
“(rumoured to have a chance of passing as Cameron is making it his concession to the traditionalists) and abortion, including my amendment. The Bill then goes into committee for the uncontroversial bits before emerrging for Report and Third Reading a month or two hence.”
What is your amendment?
272 - That was Hague, wasn’t it?
287 - Notionally Tory in 1979 on the 1983 boundaries?
280. Cheers for the posting, Nick. A timely reminder that MPs are doing some genuinely beneficial work while the blogosphere chatters away.
292 - Pretty sure it was Howard, Hague went to a comp not a grammar IIRC
277 - I thought you didn’t read my posts? You may have notice that I prefaced my remarks with ‘if it were a competition’ clearly indicating that I do not think it really is.
Instead of being petty why not engage with my argument? If politicians bring in their back story and personal life to sell themselves and present a certain image what is wrong with opponents pointing out other aspects that conflict with that image? Or is that too subtle?
Re 283, Tangent “271 - It’s much deeper than that, though; it’s based on Brown’s long wooing of Labour’s grassroots throughout Blair’s period in office, building on his considerable standing before that. Even given his current standing, that sort of attachment isn’t going to vanish overnight.”
Well, in the PLP he has lost those who thought he was real Labour, and those who thought he could win them an election better than Blair could. I am not saying Brownites will abandon him on mass, but their enthusiastic support for him will be dampened.
250 Rod Crosby. Any listing should also show swings against a government that has gone on to lose the next election - i.e. the probability factor has to be considered. If, for example ,a 10-15% swing preceded a change of government 9 times out of 10,this would make a large C&N swing more significant. Do you have data along these lines?
276. Aaron. I agree. I thought his main shirtcoming was that he came over a bit smug. The Tories need to work on the fact that their “Toffs” come over educated and competent, but are less convincing on being fairly decent, approachable and in touch and are still vulnerable here.
But Paxo laid into him a bit excessively, I thought.
295 - Yes it was definitely Howard. One of his first PMQs I think. Bit of a contrast to IDS.
292 - No, Hague was comprehensively schooled. I remember arguing when he was at the helm that he was the first major party leader truly to transcend the old class boundaries (Major was too identified with the suburban lower-middles) - much good it did him!
Re 284, Casino Royale “Tyson comment at 213 that he’d vote Tory has totally knocked me over!!
know the words to the ‘blue flag’ comrade? :-)”
I have just read that. Labour really are in trouble!
216: Well that was quite an assumption. I have (apart from a couple of lazy abstentions) only ever voted conservative. Policies such as yours where you would abolish stamp duty for first time buyers is about the only thing would stop me voting for you again. Well the thinking behind it anyway, which seems to be to keep inflating an unsustainable bubble.
If stamp duty did not exist I would oppose its invention, but we are where we are, and abolition of a £2K tax on a 200K house will cause it, other things being equal, to instantly be valued at 202K. Whoopee-do. I have written to my MP and to Grant Shapps about this, and received largely unconvincing (athough courteous, full and prompt) replies.
Honestly, its like sayng “You know, we think the only thing stopping people buying Aston Martins is the cost of the tax disc, why don’t we pay for that, then lots of people will be happy to borrow 8x their salary to get an Aston”. Er, no. The problem for FTBs is the price of houses. End of story. I read a brilliant spoof the other day of someone talking about the equity in his petrol tank, since he’d filled it the price of petrol had gone up so much he was thinking of renting it out etc etc. There is a kind of mania in this country whereby inflation is bad, except somehow for houses. Great for my parents’ generation, not so for mine. Also by default good for you, since the economy is likely to suffer, and Labour will rightly get the blame. I am not hugely confident we would avoid past mistakes with a tory government though.
As I said, nothing personal, I am sure you do great works.
O/T - This is a bit concerning, glad the police got them, and gives succour to Boris focus on bus crime etc.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7408998.stm
Oi - Bog off you lot. I’m the original 80’s Tory Boy and proud !
Martin’s had a couple of beers and is a (very welocome fellow) usurper.
Crewe going unbelievably well (Grrrrr) free money country.
Regards
TB
re 92 no it wouldn’t because the next election isn’t being fought on the old boundaries.
287 - The Tories got more votes at the May locals than the 2005 GE?
296 Unfortunately your name appears at the bottom of the posting. While skimming the posts, I generally read the first line.
The exceptions are those whom you can recognise by the shape of their post, eg Malcolm, JackW
ps, I dont know what you wrote after ” I thought you didn’t read my posts?”
Re 292, Morus, “272 - That was Hague, wasn’t it?”
No, it was Howard, though I think Hague also went to a grammar school.
279 - Another slightly hypocritical comment, from someone with a supposed wealth and lifestyle far beyond the grasp of most mere mortals.
269. Morus I am sorry and I am not defending the way Martin is expressing himself but I was outside City Hall from the moment I left work (400 yards away) at 8pm until 12.30am and though you couch it in reasonable terms I recognise nothing of what you describe and I spoke with many people as well.
Just about every Tory I spoke with was just delighted and hugely relieved that the Old Divisive Trot was gone..there was none of the soul searching you seem to have found. I also think Martin is right that your tone certainly is not non-partisan and seems to be playing to the same stereotypes as Labour in C&N. I am not sure what you mean by ‘braying’ but I guess you are sneering at the way they were laughing. I wonder what you would have to say or think about people making fun of the cockney or an ethnic accent..
I am not saying your lying but sometimes we find what we are looking for.
292&295.It was Howard’s retort to Blair at PMQ’s.
308 -
303 - The great problem with your thesis is that other things are almost never equal.
306 - If we add 200 seats to the notional position on the new boundaries the Conservative majority is 176.
291: New Clause 8. If you are a pregnant woman and a test shows a defect which would lead to a ’seriously handicapped’ child, you’re entitled to ask for an abortion up to 40 weeks into the pregnancy. This is often for Down’s Syndrome, but has occasionally been for relatively minor things like club foot and cleft palate (which I have myself, so I have a minor personal interest). The amendment would require the doctor or abortion clinic to offer promptly an overview of the implications for life expectancy and quality of life, as well as potential treatment and support.
In practice it would mean the Department of Health would need to provide briefings for each of the conditions. The idea is best summarised as ‘choice yes, but informed choice’. I’d expect it to be reassuring to potential parents of children with relatively minor conditions that they didn’t necessarily need to have an abortion. The amendment is getting some support from both pro-life and pro-choice sides and various pro-life campaigns have endorsed it.
re 181 Whitsun was a week and half ago.
Crewe will go labour. I feel it in my bones. I hate that late Dunwoody. She went mad. But i support labour.
317 - Yes the religious holiday was but the Parliamentary holiday is next week.
290. You’re sounding like a Republican! These are very tiny lifeforms that are destroyed long before sentience. It’s not the Frankenstein monster or anything.
And it could save many, many lives.
316.I think that it is a very welcome amendment to the bill, and I hope it gets through.
Con gain everything
re 247 Gisela Stuart has been very tenacious since she got in.
Re my 309, I just checked his Wikipedia entry and William Hague did got to a comprehensive.
Nick, I dont agree with your view. However, free vote and all that.
If you are going to go with “Choice” (a nice word for abortion, or killing, or murder, whatever), how about adding an amendment…
“If a woman wishes to kill her unborn baby, she should first view a scan and sign a statement to that effect”
A second amendment could be, the aborted baby is given to the mother for disposal/burial. I understand an aborted baby is not a pleasant sight, what with drilled & collapsed skulls and amputated limbs. However, there could be a cost saving for the NHS.
323 - Yes and plenty of worthy MP’s lose their seats. She can be as tenacious as she likes if the tide goes against her she loses her seat.
Looking forward to the Newsnight special all on C&N tomorrow night! At this stage I would be extremely happy with a 14/15% swing based on the ComRes poll. If things move further to the Conservatives, at the rate they have on the polling evidence from the last week, then that would be amazing - an 18/19% swing anybody? A big turnout in the rural parts to the east of Crewe on the Staffordshire border and all the Nantwich area and surrounds will all help.
re 280 Nick I mentioned it a few threads ago - difficult to keep up - and remarked how Browne’s, Murphy’s and Keely’s diary secretaries are going to be busy in arranging fantasy meetings for them.
325 - Make a nice new business for someone that, privatising foetus disposal.
Since when was being against yobs nasty.
330 - Threats of violence are nasty, whoever they come from.
I hate yobs i wish labour would punch their faces in.
re 291 any lesb+ian who wants to create a baby without any male involvement IMHO needs their head examining.
332 - What the hell is this? Are you some sort of tory troll?
323. Chris A. I agree. In fact I am prepared to take £100 at 4/1 from any regular poster on Gisela Stuart holding her seat next time round.
Any Fear of a bet Sean?
321/325: thanks for the comments, obviously especially ChrisD. Al, the reason the pro-life people are supporting it is that amendments to abortion only come along every 10-20 years, and if more information about severity and support means fewer abortions, they’re in favour (quite reasonably, no?). It doesn’t stop them supporting more radical amendments too, and I may be voting for a reduction in the normal term limit too, though I want to hear the debate before deciding.
325 - How about we keep the debate realistic rather than couching it in the terms of the maniacs in this area? I don’t hold with abortion but I accept that it is a legitimate course to go down, I therefore wish it to be subject to a rigorous scientifically determined limit and to be accompanied by appropriate pre-termination and post-termination support. I certainly think it adds nothing to the debate to approach it in the manner you do.
334 dirty european socialist is a known peculiar that frequents Guido.
I dont think he is a troll. He really is barking.
Mad as a box of Frogs.
Tyson. Even in jest or anger to suggest you would vote for the Coxalls of this world-and make no mistake that is the true face of the Tories as it has been since Thatch-would be totally insane. Do you really think anything has changed with these people since the heady ‘Hang Nelson Mandela days’?
Re 316, Nick Palmer “291: New Clause 8. If you are a pregnant woman and a test shows a defect which would lead to a ’seriously handicapped’ child, you’re entitled to ask for an abortion up to 40 weeks into the pregnancy. This is often for Down’s Syndrome, but has occasionally been for relatively minor things like club foot and cleft palate (which I have myself, so I have a minor personal interest). The amendment would require the doctor or abortion clinic to offer promptly an overview of the implications for life expectancy and quality of life, as well as potential treatment and support.
In practice it would mean the Department of Health would need to provide briefings for each of the conditions. The idea is best summarised as ‘choice yes, but informed choice’. I’d expect it to be reassuring to potential parents of children with relatively minor conditions that they didn’t necessarily need to have an abortion. The amendment is getting some support from both pro-life and pro-choice sides and various pro-life campaigns have endorsed it.”
I see. 40 weeks is term though is it not? I also have immense trouble with the term defect. Mind you I do not know what was there before. Does your amendment mean that the abortion can still happen to the same restriction (I think the “defect” rule gives a longer period) but that anyone asking for such an abortion gets more info so that they can make an informed choice or does it extend the period?
BTW, I seriously think that anyone wishing to have an abortion should be informed of the alternatives.
Weird thing about the Crewe Labour campaign is it would have worked well as a BNP campaign against Labour. It would have needed to be more subtle but apart from that, “Labour Toffs” and “soft on crime” etc would have resonated well.
It’s like a political party gone insane.
UKpaul you’re the guy who mocked me for saying celtic nations exist. Since when did celtic nations not exist. Why do university departments have studies into celtic history, if they do not exist. And labour should punch yobs in the face. Well done labour. Tories should be tough on scum. Not being nice to bullies and thugs.
338 - “Mad as a box of Frogs.”
so quite at home here then!
333 Chris A. Just a thought but I think you’ll find that it’s not the head that the lesbi*n has examined !!
328: sorry, ChrisA, you’re right, haven’t had time to read everything. Thanks to David H for the commment above too.
339. He’s got £600 on the tories - small wonder he would vote for them.
BBC reports that the recent increase in the number of people seeking advice on bad debts isn’t coming from the traditional markets - namely people on benefits and living in social housing - but from professionals and homeowners.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7406752.stm
Given that was the “Worcester Woman” demographic that Labour sought, could there be a correlation between mortgage defaults and future voting intention?
293. Yes, they were both notional Labour gains in 1983, along with Glasgow Cathcart and L’pool Broadgreen.
Just shows how off some of the notionals can be.
Al Fresco I never visited that drunk morons website for years. Youre the mad nutter. FGo and fresco off a cliff you yob with the rest of guidoes creeps. LOL. .
342 - Bollocks man, you don’t even know who you’ve been talking to, go and lie down before you become a laughing stock.
On second thoughts, I’ll give you a ten minute head start if you post the name of the person you actually were debating with earlier before I do.
ukpaul Why do you make some UKIP tedious rant. UKIP are dead LOL.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/19/will-thursdays-cn-disaster-make-the-case-for-this-man/#comment-671253 Post number 504 where you mocked me. Remember me. :
Re 320 Socrates, “And it could save many, many lives”
Given the amount of progress made with adult stem cells, which are plentiful (In fact you carry a large supply up your nose) compared to embryonic stem cells (nil to date) there is an argument to say that ethical arguments aside (of which there are many) this line of research is an expensive and as it robs money from the more productive research, immoral thing to do, with little benefit.
311 - Fair enough. I think I’m pretty even-handed in attacking both sides, and the Tories were in for criticism because it was their turn to be triumphalist. I would have no problem describing Kinnock’s ‘grind them into the dust’ as brutish or ill-bred or any other term that seemed to fit. I’m certainly not ’sneering’ at them, just trying to rationalise what it was that made me cringe just a little. I will never oppose mocking accents - I’ve had too many stupid accents to mind that!
Labour’s tactics in C&N have been a mix of the inevitably knock-about (the Toff stuff is facile and hypocritical, but not as risible as some have suggested) and the downright disgraceful. The ‘conman’ stuff is libellous, and the ‘friend of paedophiles’ smear is the most disgusting attack I’ve ever known. I thought Labour might hold on three weeks ago, and I will owe PBers £40 if/when Labour lose it - I am now almost looking forward to writing the cheques (as much as a punter ever can) because of the moral bankruptcy of their campaign.
Your point is well-made about finding what we are looking for, though the idea that I am a Class Warrior or of the Left is silly - I tend to criticise the team in the ascendency if I feel things are going too smoothly, so perhaps I have overstated the case, but I would make two things very clear. Firstly, I do not lie in my posts, and never deliberately distort the truth on this site - that is very important to me. Secondly, I am deliberately non-partisan - however, this shouldn’t be confused with a committment to neutrality. I am never neutral, but always non-partisan. If my criticism sounded like what Labour are attacking you for, I would advise that you take note. They have found a weak spot.
There is a justifiable case to be made about whether a group that is unashamed of its elitism (in several senses) can truly represent the masses. If the only response to that charge is to accuse your critics of being Class Warriors, you will struggle as a party to answer those (legitimate) concerns. I think Cameron has done wonders to make the Conservatives popular again, but Labour are attacking you on that front for a reason. Eventually it will begin to stick, unless you take steps to address it. If the response of those seen as privileged is to claim persecution, I suspect a lot of people might have very little sympathy.
Anyway, I actually do need to go to bed now. Sorry if I diverted the thread onto nonsense - a night of unintended consequences in many ways. Sleep well, all.
352 - Wait a minute while I stop laughing, I’m a lib dem voter you wizened little man.
The answer to my poser was ‘Richard Tyndall’.
Start running.
338 - Pot. Kettle. Black.
327: something like this smells about right to me:
Timpson 20,000 (49%)
Dunwoody 10,000 (24%)
Gemma 5,001 (12%)
Clegg’s ‘piece’ 5,000 (12%)
Others 1,000 (2%)
Total 41,000
Turnout: 55%
Con majority: 10,000
352 - Never posted anything about Celts; of course I mocked you, you posted one of the most ridiculous posts in many a week.
Unfortunately it’s nearly bedtime or I’d enjoy doing you up like a kipper.
337 No, that’s pretty much how it is.
An unborn baby’s head drilled to suck the brain out, so the skull can be collapsed for easy, convenient delivery. Limbs are amputated for similar reasons. You can have some links to images if you like.
Just because the baby’s scream can not be heard, or uttered, doesnt mean it dies in a humane manner.
I imagine Nazis saying pretty much the same as you as they disposed of the mentally handicaped before moving on to Jews, Gypsies and Homosexuals.
Some people believe that factory farming is cruel and consumers should be confronted with the reality. Abortion is similar although, it humans are the ones suffering.
Abortion, is murder. I’m not sure why I should care if a Haridan should commit murder of he own. Afterall, such a person is an abhoration of nature and is probably best removing themselves from evolution.
Why I should care about someone else’s unborn? It has something to do with empathy and being a humanist.
357 - No chance of the model coming that high up
For the enjoyment and edification of others this is the post which I ridiculed.
“Richard Tyndall You are a ignorant little Englander. I have postgraduate qualifciations but if you reply offensilvey to me i lose repsect and make spelionjg errors. Treat with respect and i will spell better. This is like how i would tlak to yiou. You have to earn my respect”
I thought I was quite fair actually.
334 - DES is no Tory troll - he’s a pretty typical member of the rump formerly known as the Labour Party and is frequently seen abusing Conservatives. Interesting that Birmingham is being debated.
The new Hall Green seat is the only seat I can think of that may resemble a four-way marginal, but it remains close to hopeless for the Tories.
Birmingham Northfield, Edgbaston and Selly Oak have 32 Conservative, 3 Lib Dem and 1 Labour councillor. It’s hard to see Labour able to fight these seats effectively against this backdrop.
Re 333 Chris A “re 291 any lesb+ian who wants to create a baby without any male involvement IMHO needs their head examining.”
Many thanks for that. Do you have any knowledge or comment on community views on this?
The reason why I ask is that I wonder how much the radicals represent the mainstream community.
354. Morus
That’s the second time you have accused the Labour party of using the ‘friend of paedophiles’ attack.
It is reprehensible for anybody to use the abuse of children to score political points.
Do you have any proof that Labour have been using this in their campaign? I haven’t seen any evidence of it.
ukpaul Yeah nurse com’n round to give your pills to go to sleep. UKIP Right wing nutter. LOL. Cameron right about you mad UKIPs I can think of somethin that rhymes with UKIP And UKIP are full of em’ LOL.
340: yes, I’m not using any new terminology here, and sympathise with your unease over the terms. The amendment would not change the two term limits, which at present are 24 weeks if there is no special problem, and 40 weeks if there is a special problem likely to lead to “serious handicap”. I’d be surprised if we disagreed, actually. The main argument against the amendment is that if the doctor doesn’t have all the information to hand (e.g. he’s run out of information packs) then it could cause a delay, and, more nebulously, that the act of offering information unprompted could feel like pressure not to do it.
Re 336, Nick Palmer “thanks for the comments, obviously especially ChrisD. Al, the reason the pro-life people are supporting it is that amendments to abortion only come along every 10-20 years, and if more information about severity and support means fewer abortions, they’re in favour (quite reasonably, no?)”
Yes, fair enough, though I wonder what the current law is.
The pro lifers also provide support for single mothers so that they do not feel economically pressured into an abortion which is a good thing in my view.
365 - In a language I can understand maybe?
re 359 we don’t need the graphic images, thanks. Abortion at times is a necessary evil, unfortunately in the vast majority of cases it’s not necessary at all and done for convenience. There are far too many and it is being used in some cases as a means of contraception. I think the limit is about right, but it needs to be made far harder. The two signatures rule is just a rubber stamp these days, I’d be amazed if some clinics didn’t have a stock of pre-signed forms at the ready.
Praguetory Get lost you insukted me. Dont come on this baord with you lies. Youre one guidoes stooges. I have no respect for your type. Guido drives while drink accordibng to Maguire so why should anyone respect him. People die due to drink driving.
348 “Al Fresco I never visited that drunk morons website for years.”
quick google shows November 23 2007. Hardly years.
http://www.order-order.com/2007/11/fox-news.html
That makes you a liar as well as a looney leftie.
268. Pigeon English simple enough for you.
366 - I take issue with aborting Down’s Syndrome cases later than other babies. I can’t understand the justification.
Re 339, Roger “Tyson. Even in jest or anger to suggest you would vote for the Coxalls of this world-and make no mistake that is the true face of the Tories as it has been since Thatch-would be totally insane. Do you really think anything has changed with these people since the heady ‘Hang Nelson Mandela days’?”
I think Tyson is saying he would rather have people in who wear hang Nelson Mandela T shirts than people who wear brown shirts.
Al Fresco Years as in figure of speech typical fantacial guido moron. Can you tell the difference between a figure of speech and a real statement of time. No irony dense . Someone call the lumberjack we a have thick plank of wood for you.
264 - Gabble - I have heard it several times on this and other blogs, and IIRC there was an allusion to it in the Sunday Times.
The rumour started somewhere, and I can’t think of a plausible alternative to it being an unofficial Labour attack. I cannot believe that the Tories would self-inflict the rumour to make Labour’s campaign look dirty - there is too much chance it would go wrong, and you don’t volutarily associate your candidate’s name with the word ‘paedophile’ when he’s leading in the polls. If it is untrue, I apologise to the party, though it says something that it came across as being plausible.
Has there been any rebuttal? If I were Labour, I’d go out of my way to deny it.
http://poll.pollcode.com/MWe8_result?v
Not bad for a supposed UKIP supporter to come third in lib dem posters of the year!
Okay, I’m a Huhne-ite more than anything but that makes your babbling even more ironic.
359. For many people the termination of an unsentient lifeform is not murder. In the same way I would have no problem with turning off a life support machine when the patient is braindead. It is unecessarily emotive to compare this to Nazi crimes on sentient beings, be they handicapped, Jewish or gay.
360: I know. I just like winding up Lib Dems…
Probably be more like:
Timpson 21,000 (51%)
Dunwoody 11,000 (27%)
Shelton 6,000 (15%)
Others 3,000 (7%)
Total 41,000
Turnout: 55%
Con majority: 10,000
Morus So did he defend padoes yes or no. Lets ban the truth.
375 - No wood, but I might be able to find you some rope.
379 Entirely reasonable analysis in line with my own projections….
ukpaul Great mind boggling so you spew out more BS than anyone alive. Someone give the guy an award.
Praguetory Why have you got some on your dungeon LOL.
From the Times
“There have also been Labour attempts to smear Edward Timpson, the Conservative candidate, as a “friend of the paedophile” because he has occasionally defended sex offenders in his job as a barrister. “I think you will find he is not the type of lawyer he claims to be,” one Labour MP said.”
Tories say be nice to yobs.
382 - I thought your projection would be more in the mould of Conservative 100% everyone else nil!
Morus, So it is OK to defned padoes then new tory morality eh!
383. Leave the bloke alone. He can give more informed analysis in a single post than you have in all your postings here.
Tories defend yobs and paedoes So since when was that news Ia take your point.
Morus/Gabble: I asked about the ‘paedophile’ thing here before and checked with people at Crewe. The source seems to be that Mr Timpson described himself as a family lawyer, a Labour MP said ‘he’s not the sort of lawyer he describes himself as’, and a website interpreted that as being a veiled attack on his defending paedophiles and other criminals. The Tories then claimed it was part of a disgraceful Labour campaign.
Others will no doubt correct me if there was more to it than that, but I don’t think so - certainly none of the leaflets I saw made any reference to any such thing and nobody I asked knew about it (the above is my recollection of an earlier thread here).
380 - “did he defend padoes ”
Strangely the Padoe language of Indonesia is related to the Mori language, I wonder if they weight by vowels or consonants.
http://www.ethnologue.com/show_language.asp?code=pdo
Socrates I will insult him back. He insulted me so i will insult him.
Re 354, Morus, good post and good points.
For those who doubt him I spent quite some time chatting with him face to face at the last PB bash. He is a good man.
British people do not like triumphalism. Us Conservatives need to be gracious. After all, it is just the sort of people we are
392 -
368 - Good stuff Bob, personally I can’t see turnout being as high as 55% - more likely 45? And much as I would love it, I’d be amazed if the swing got to 20% - but then, never rule anything in, never rule anything out as they say!
393 - The mentality of a six year old child.
396 - 379, not 368!
380 - It seems that he has defended suspected paedophiles in his role as a barrister. He has legal duty defend those who are accused, independent of whether they are guilty, and irrespective of whether the crime is as disgusting as paedophilia. By doing so (which I could not) he ensures that we have a legal system that is not only just, but also seen to be just, which allows us to protect society by the enactment of that justice.
To translate that into a claim that he is a ‘friend’ of paedophiles is disgusting, and potentially libellous, and exactly the reason that they deserve to lose and lose heavily.
298. Well, I’ve tried to analyse this before with the average by-election swing, etc, which fits extremely well.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/byelections.jpg
There is an upper limit on swing [30% to Labour, Liverpool Wavertree, 1935]
I have listed all postwar >20% swings here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
Supra 20% really does seem a banker for a change of government (exception Mid-Staffs, 1990, leading craftily to change of PM instead)
The lowest highest swings that saw a change of government were
13.8% Stratford-upon-Avon, 1963
16.5% Hayes & Harlington, 1971
17.0% Bristol West, 1951
That’s pretty much why I said 15% is the benchmark for the Tories.
20% would be near certainty. 15% likely. 10% unlikely…
I like sound ot the tory candidate at first, with his stuff about his parents fostering people, but mind you what does that have to do with him. Anyway if he says that his defending poor people is an issue why is his defending paedoes not an issue. The tory MP is OK, but it is politics get over it.
397. Oh I see so I am supposed to let some guy insult me. Grow up yourself. The guy insulted me so I insulted him back. Get over it. Are him pretending to be someone else Grow up.
400 - Given the circs, Stratford-upon-Avon is surprising.
What this country needs is government that says be nice to yobs. Yeah great one. No wonder yobns vote tory. LOL.
385. Morus, that is not evidence of a ‘campaign’ by the Labour party, as has been alluded to by yourself and others.
It is ambiguous, in that article, as to where the quote “friend of the paedophile” comes from. Is that an actual quote or is it the journalists’ summary of a private conversation?
391 - I’d happily take that on trust from you, Nick, as I can’t believe that any right thinking person would allow that as a form of attack.
I think the quote in the Times by the Labour MP was very foolish, and having seen it published, he should have gone out of his way to make sure that the Times’ interpretation was challenged. They must have been sure of his meaning to print that paragraph, right? If it is a misunderstanding, I apologise, but at best it comes across as cack-handed media management, and at worst a sort of deniable-slur.
402 - Rise above it.
Obviously the champers was top quality at Grouchos tonight. Wodger is in sparkling form. Strange he has had never revealed his personal taxation arrangements - just wonder whether he spreads his income over all those homes in all those countries.
I suspect he probably wrote Tamsins leaflets - hunourless and full of bile.
Since when was it nasty to hate yobs and padoes.
399. You articulated my exact sentiments far better than I ever could!
The murdoch press love paedoes and yobs. They write for most of em LOL.
405 - You’re right Gabble, I don’t think it’s a campaign tactic, but if Labour MPs are having that private conversation with journalists to allow for a deniable slur, it still amounts to a pretty damning indictment of British politics, doesn’t it?
392: lol!
399: Morus, I’d agree with you if there was any evidence that anyone has been calling Mr Timpson a friend of paedophiles. But I don’t actually think there is. The website that chose to spin it that way was from another party, trying to whip up indignation, and I think they’ve succeeded in taking you in. I’m open to correction if anyone has any evidence to the contrary.
410 - And from one as eloquent as your good self Socrates…many thanks.
394 - I’ll have that on my tombstone, cheers Benedict!
410. I douby anyone said he was friend of paedes. Surely making up such a fake claim is even worse. Where is the evidence tjhe claim was made. The press hare going after labour cos they hate yobs and paedoes.
412. Morus, I don’t know the contents of that private conversation (or even if it took place) but you seem to have a lot more faith in journalists than I do.
413 - More than possible, Nick, but I think it would be a pretty stupid political operator to allow their candidate’s name and that allegation into the public arena just to call Labour ‘underhand campaigners’. No-one with any sense would do that when leading in the polls, though the website may not be run by someone with any sense, of course!!
I didn’t mean to cast aspertions, but the Times has run with it, and they do make it sound as though the Labour MP in question meant that. If he’s been unfairly quoted, he should seek redress urgently - I won’t be the only person to have been taken in, and some of them may live in C&N. For the umpteenth time tonight, for a litany of offences committed, my apologies.
Nick Palmer Wy are you standing up for the tories on this issue. Anyway if you do not know the issue, why are you talking about it. LOL. Is that the job of an MP to mouth off on stuff they do not know about Oh yeah i forgot LOL.
416 - You’re right Gabble - I’ve probably not been as rigourous in checking it as I should have been. Still, if a chap can’t trust the Times of London…
re 411 my God he’s learnt about diphthongs
Why is Nick Palmer a labour MP standing up for the tories. If one of ther candidates defended paedoes, why is that not an issue?
Maybe you could learn about full stops and starting sentances with capaitals Yesssss. Hoist by his own.
Anyone know what time we can expect results tomorrow? I suppose Oregon will be well into the early hours, or does the all postal vote speed it up?
421 - Because Nick is palpably decent and is also able to understand the nuances of issues.
The contrast with you is colossal; I do hope you won’t continue to post on this blog in the same way you have this evening since you add less than nothing to it.
Re 366, Nick Palmer “340: yes, I’m not using any new terminology here, and sympathise with your unease over the terms. The amendment would not change the two term limits, which at present are 24 weeks if there is no special problem, and 40 weeks if there is a special problem likely to lead to “serious handicap”. I’d be surprised if we disagreed, actually. The main argument against the amendment is that if the doctor doesn’t have all the information to hand (e.g. he’s run out of information packs) then it could cause a delay, and, more nebulously, that the act of offering information unprompted could feel like pressure not to do it.”
Many thanks for the clarification. Broadly I welcome your amendment.
That said I do find that the pro choice lobby are at least as fanatical as the pro life lobby. I heard one in a radio 4 debate say that she thought that abortion should be able to take place post birth if the mother felt she no longer wanted the baby. They seem to almost want all women to have at least one abortion.
The reality is that most women find abortions traumatic in a way that they probably did not think they would.
Nick Pamler is not tough enough. Why does he not just say the tory defended paeodes since when was that lie, he should explain himself not labour end fo story. Why are you so mealy mouthed. Do you want labour to win? No wonder labour cannot win with such mealy mouthed attitude to tory debate then you’ll prbaly insult me for saying this rather than you real opponents. You let tories get away with saying it is nasty to want to punch yobs in the face.
403.
Yes, but things get a bit complicated here…
The Bristol SE by-election, 1963 (a week after Stratford) showed a “notional” 33.7% swing to Labour.
However, that was because there was no Official Conservative candidate [the last such occasion in mainland UK, due to the former Visc. Stansgate finally ridding himself of his peerage and becoming eligible to again sit in the Commons]. I ignored this artifactual swing initially.
But, if we assume the unofficial “National Fellowship” Conservative who stood to be a Tory proxy, the Bristol SE by-election swing was nearer to 24% to Labour….
So that fits better with the pattern of >20% indicating an almost certain change of gov..
421 - Do you really delight in being contrarion? Do you get a kick out of antagonising everyone? You really are a small individual if you have to try and pick fights with everybody. If you posted sensible comments and didn’t funnel all comments that challenge your thesis through an enlarged persecution complex you might find yourself better respected.
Aaron I am a decent guy you bully. I behave myself I hate yobs cos they wrecked my life. I hate them. I do not need someone like you telling me I am not decent. What is your beef with me. Another bully appears from the ground. What did i say that offended you.
180 Kieran, may I give some advice to you and the Labour party?
Your post veers quite close to a more sophisticated and eloquent version of the ‘Tory Toff’ line.
And however you dress it up it is class warrior stuff and really excites only the committed Labour supporter. Any party who damns someone for being upper class is capable of damning someone else as the enemy of the working class. And we all know where that leads. Four legs good, two legs bad.
Sadly, that description does fit the current Labour strategy in C and N - go for shoring up the core vote with class based attacks.
It may work with that distinct target audience but more widely will remind people why Labour were out of power for almost two decades.
It seems at present your party demands policies from the opposition so there can be a ‘national debate ‘ as a cover for the real attack which is purely class based. I would hope you would not support that strategy or the rather divisive mind-set it comes from.
Surely we all want a country that provides equal opportunity for all, not the minority represented by one of the old class definitions.
Somebody here is either drunk or mad.
Re 369, Chris A “re 359 we don’t need the graphic images, thanks. Abortion at times is a necessary evil, unfortunately in the vast majority of cases it’s not necessary at all and done for convenience. There are far too many and it is being used in some cases as a means of contraception. I think the limit is about right, but it needs to be made far harder. The two signatures rule is just a rubber stamp these days, I’d be amazed if some clinics didn’t have a stock of pre-signed forms at the ready.”
I am amazed at the areas in which we agree.
I don’t think people in this country understand that abortions are illegal unless you can get two doctors to say that the mother would suffer either serious mental or physical harm if the baby was carried to term. The reality is as you say that doctors in some clinics ignore the law.
428 What is your beef with me. I posted some comments and then everyone starts getting at me.
All I said labour says it os oke to want to punch evil yobs in the face back, well done, and then tory press inculuding the nasty Guido claimed that it is nasty to want to punch yobs.
Nick Palmer should just say if the tory defened padoes we have right to say that end of story.
Re 373, Prague Tory “366 - I take issue with aborting Down’s Syndrome cases later than other babies. I can’t understand the justification.”
I think you, Nick Palmer and I may be signing off the same hymn sheet, the problem he has is getting it past parliament.
Witan Yeah imagine it a class making up more than half of the cabinet but anyone enough about tory upper class cabinet LOL. What you tories really mena is no one tlak about class as we are all upper class boo hoo. Not fair. Grow up tories. Can’t talk about paedoes yobs or the upper class. Why got somehting to hide LOL.
SBS Why is guido here,. LOL.
I wish labour would pubnch yobs in the face.
Hi,Benedict White-its great yoiu’re back after what was probably 2-3 months but felt longer!
FWIW,as a resident of Bournemouth East,I have felt increasing despair and outright anger at the way a seemingly-unstoppable daughter of an MP,who closely represnted my more ‘old-school-Labour’ views,has seemingly snatched a close ‘Phew,we just held on’ to a near-devestating defeat.
The bench-mark I will use is Bradford North,November 1st 1990;a 15.6 % swing Tory-Labour.
If,in the amall hours of Friday morning the swing is within 1-2% of that,I would:
(a)Wonder how the f*** GB can get out of jail
(b)Be prepared ,at least psychologically,for a second change of leadership-with the caveat the UK public will only take so much..
Perhaps the best I can hope is Labour hold 240-250 seats next time
427 - True, but that bye, given the coverage of Benn’s fight to stay in the Commons, probably would have boosted Labour even there had been a Tory candidate, so I think you were right to leave it out. I suppose holding both elections right in the middle of August might have caused the results to be slightly skewed.
re “paedo-loving lawyers.” I am reminded what Lord Birkett said in the classic Face-to-Face interview with John Freeman in 1960, on being asked how he could defend people he knew to be guilty: “The job of a barrister under our adversarial system of justice is to be the prisoner’s mouthpiece; to say what he would say if he had my ability and legal knowledge. Nothing more or less…”
And Birkett was rather good at it. As the Brighton trunk-murderer [No.2], Tony Mancini, incredulously asked his counsel after the verdict was brought in…
“Not Guilty, Mr. Birkett?”
“Not Guilty????????”
438 Maybe Nick Palmer should make a challenge. He is kind to animal welfare, so he could be the stalking horse LOL? Get it.
The PM should stick around and give the tories his big clunking fist in the face. He should tell tories stop standing up for yobs stop giving tax breaks to the rich, stop standing up for class divisions in the pretence of that shuitting people up about class division menas it isn’t there.
RodCrosby Well the tory should be saying that not the labour party hiding from the fact they pointed out. Palmer is not tough enough he should kick tory but like they kicked his beloved foxes.
Re 414 Morus, “394 - I’ll have that on my tombstone, cheers Benedict!”
No problem, call it as I see it. I can’t think of anyone at the party I would not say that of mind, and we all disagree about politics. It is however important to understand that we are decent people all the same.
The PM should show his big clunking fist and have his knicles tatooed with
I
HATE
YOBS.
Palmer should do the same.
400 - surely a highly misleading use of statistics unless less you also analyse the “highest lowest” swings that led to a change of govt?
425.”That said I do find that the pro choice lobby are at least as fanatical as the pro life lobby.”
I agree Benedict, if we could take both groups and politics out of this, I suspect that our Parliament would do us proud on what is a vitally important debate.
I have been very worried about the determination of the government to make part of this bill political by imposing a three line whip at various stages. It is well past time to have such a debate that produces a well thought parliamentary bill that seeks to clarify the various issues.
It really should be a free vote for the whole Parliament with party politics removed, I would be delighted if the merits of the bill that was produced were the focus rather any political implication for the party in government steering it through.
Why do the tories love Yobs. Maybe most of them were yobs. LOL. Like the Bullingdon boys LOL.
Peter Hain iz teh hero, fought against rascisms in South Africa!!!
Labour should have gone the whole hog they are too mealy mouthed in this campagin. So it is OK to defendf padoes if it is your job OK Tory new morality give me money I do anyhting.
There seems to be blue bottle buzzing around tonight. Can someone please swat it?
BannedHorse Please hurry up to the glue factory.
Witan I know you are but what am I.
443 - Too true - I didn’t meet a single person who wasn’t cordial and interesting. I hope there’s another event coming up this summer - I’ll get onto PtP and ask him whether we should ruin the weather by planning a barbeque or something…
Err, it may be too late to detect irony but presumably he was defending innocent (i.e. not yet found guilty) people.
I did not like old dunwoody she was mad. Battle axe yeah right we klnow what that means, and this tory seems OK but so what if he defened padoes people ghave right to say why did you defend padoes. Why not? Or do we live in police stater where you cannot ask people questions?
No problem, Morus - you’re right to be concerned, and I don’t know any more than we’ve discussed here, though to clarify the query at 417, my recollection is that the website that trumpeted it was LibDem, which would fit, by propagating the allegation (bad for the Tories) at the same time as deploring it (bad for Labour). But at any event, *if* anyone said it, I agree with your view of it! I think we should ignore the drunken Creature shouting at us. Anyway time to turn in.
Re 438, Patrick “Hi,Benedict White-its great yoiu’re back after what was probably 2-3 months but felt longer!”
I have posted occasionally. Nice to know I have been missed, though I am not sure that can be said of all who have posted here tonight
“FWIW,as a resident of Bournemouth East,I have felt increasing despair and outright anger at the way a seemingly-unstoppable daughter of an MP,who closely represnted my more ‘old-school-Labour’ views,has seemingly snatched a close ‘Phew,we just held on’ to a near-devestating defeat.
The bench-mark I will use is Bradford North,November 1st 1990;a 15.6 % swing Tory-Labour.
If,in the amall hours of Friday morning the swing is within 1-2% of that,I would:
(a)Wonder how the f*** GB can get out of jail
(b)Be prepared ,at least psychologically,for a second change of leadership-with the caveat the UK public will only take so much..
Perhaps the best I can hope is Labour hold 240-250 seats next time”
Well, difficult one. It is the sort of by election we should be winning anyway at this time in the electoral cycle so I would be very shocked if Labour hold on. That said the swing is the key. if it is large it will cause shockwaves in Labour though I do not know if Brown will be that easy to get rid of. My view on how damaging it would be is in flux though.
456 Are you Prescott on here to promote your book or something?
339 - Roger, I wonder if you ever consider that you are denying yourself the full spectrum of electoral choice when you are so set in rejecting the Conservatives because of your identification of any supposed unpalatable behaviour, from people ffar removed from the leadership, as being “the true face of Conservatism” (always inextricably linked to your obsession with South Africa), , yet you treat any r4evolting stuff coming from the Labour leadership as a mere aberration that will be overcome.
Nick Palmer MP Thanks for that calling me a drunken creatue. I know to hate your guts back. I am glad you never made it up the ladder in the party stakes. Offensive bully. Good riddance
I defended two alleged rapists, one was a winner the other a loser, both paid for by legal aid. Does this mean the taxpayer protects rapists?
re 447, ChrisD “I agree Benedict, if we could take both groups and politics out of this, I suspect that our Parliament would do us proud on what is a vitally important debate.”
Agreed, I also agree with the rest of your post.
Sorry if this has already been posted, but it might cast some light on the time table for the Henley by election.
ConHom has a link to this story in the Henley Standard.
Boris vows: Business as usual until resignation.
This is the bit that caught my interest.
” John Walsh, chairman of South Oxfordshire Conservative Association, said the process of choosing a Conservative candidate for Henley could be ‘fast-tracked’ if necessary. We have plans in place, including a draft timetable, so we are ready to act quickly if we have to,” he said. There were around 1,000 members of his association and their views would be sought because they had the final say on selecting a candidate.
He said that a provisional date for a final selection meeting could be June 27th.
But, of course, everything depended on when Mr. Johnson resigned. He said that the Conservative Party was at present putting all its energies into a by-election in Crewe on May 22nd.”
I hope Nick Pamler does become a stalking horse and then they can cart him off to the glue factory LOL.
re 454 Morus “443 - Too true - I didn’t meet a single person who wasn’t cordial and interesting. I hope there’s another event coming up this summer - I’ll get onto PtP and ask him whether we should ruin the weather by planning a barbeque or something…”
A remarkably splendid idea. That said if we are not doing anything commercial we could try the terrace in the Houses of parliament.
NP to DES:
“Nya-nya-nya-nya-NYA-nyah!”
He says time to turn in. So what he should be working anyway not being on the internet he is an MP. What is he paid all that cash for cut MPs wages. Abusive bore.
BannedHorse Atleast you got better sense of humour than that labour MP. I never liked labour MPs but i am still labour. All MPs are self serve wannabees.
441/44 Dont get me wrong,I’m 37,from a ‘weird-to-say-the-least-background’-and my blood runs cold at the memory of Mrs.T in the mid-80s,when I was in my tmid-teens.
BUT,and it is a huge ‘BUT’-almost the moment John Major won in 1992 he taked to Cabinet colleagues,and said words to the effect of Four terms is pishing it too far-how could we win a fifth?’
To say the leat,events,from both sides in UK politics twixt 1992-7 averted that course of events.
PART-and I cannot strongly enough empahasise the word ‘PART’ of me,as a seasoned Labourite thinks:
(a)Three terms is as long as anyone can reasonably go
(b)If David cameron wins,
(i)He will maintain 75-85% of the Balirite agenda
(ii)After 12-13 years out of office(a rcord as I recall),the Tories will be on ‘best behaviour’:ie no more ‘On Yer Bike’ from a certain former MP in Chingford
(c)There is every chance a young,hopeful new Tory cabinet will make a )for them) fatal) error-I foresee Cammo nad Cabinet colleagues picking a fight over the Local Govt Pesnsion Scheme-of whom I am a member.
A good point to remeber-the 1984 miners strike was largeky defeated by there being c.30 weeks stockpiled-with the benefot of Notts working on-and oilburn.Local govt is more diffuse-librariea,public loos,public amenities.
I almost feel I should shut up now-as to my mind it is almost painfully predictable how a new DC govt could hit the rocks,have its credibility shredded-and usher in another 3 terms of Blair-ite Labour govt.
No spite or malice meant -just how I can see events panning out
Why the labour MP insult me like that. They get paid a fortune and then put people down like that. #####s MPs are all c####
445. Well, there are probably a million ways of doing it, I haven’t looked at “highest lowest” yet
Problem is, extracting one by-election from each parliament as some sort of infallible weathercock is not rigorous enough to draw meaningful conclusions.
i) You are ignoring 80-95% of the available data (all the other by-elections)
ii) Luck or oddity often goes hand in hand with outlying results.
That’s why my original research included all by-elections, taking an average of the swing to the opposition as the “best” overall metric. It happens to fit pretty well over a 60-year period…
The >20% swing also fits excellently, btw.
Only Mid-Staffs, 1990 readily avoids the inevitable conclusion (for the obvious reasons stated)
Bristol SE, 1963
Hayes & Harlington, 1971
Bristol W, 1951
when looked at closely fit the pattern.
As stated, Bristol SE probably did exhibit a genuine >20% swing to Labour.
In 1974 and 1951, the “wrong” party won the election, so the >20% rule can’t be negatived…
btw, can anyone imagine the Tories achieving 81% of the vote in Bristol West (or anywhere) today, as they did in the 1951 by-election?
Where’s Ave it?
458,Hi,Benedict-a confession-I gave up smoking from mid-Jan to late April: towrads the end I sneaked the odd one or two.
LOcal election night 1st May.and the moment Southampton City Council (albeit narrowly) went overall Tory control saw me find my last,half-full pouch of tobacco,and say ‘F*** it,I can;t take it anymore!’)
My reasoning? In 2007 the Tories and Lib DEms formed a coaliton in Southampton,with some pretty nasty cuts to nurseay crae/social services- offensive enough to induce the Lib DEm block join forces with Labour in c/mid Feb.
I fully accept national issues swung Southampton (Whose Test division was swamped by 000s of workers during the 97 campaign,,yours truly included :lol:)
It is the case that after 1/3 up for re-election for 3 years there is a 2 year-gap-so by-elections notwithstanding the Conservative groupn will run the council.FWIW,I suspect this will be a pretty easy ‘Regain’ for the Labour Party
411 - Yeah we do, obviously.
Re 470, Patrick, If there is a Conservative victory at the next election (and I personally suspect there might be
) then the press will give them an easy ride for a while much the same way that Labour got one in 1997.
As for continuing the Blairite agenda, that is an interesting one. He had no agenda, though he later seemed to adopt a Majorite one. We do of course support our own policies though we would of course prefer to implement them ourselves.
Nick P - just to say thank you for all your posts on the Embryology bill both today and previously. I think I agree with pretty much every word you have written on the subject and I was delighted to see the big majorities against the various amendments today.
If I had a vote tomorrow I think for me it would be a 50:50 call between staying at 24 weeks and going down to 22 weeks. If there is decent evidence of viability at 22 weeks then that would appear to be the correct limit.
But I remain concerned for a number of reasons. If the limit is 22, will that make it hard in practice to get an abortion after 20? Will it be the start of a slippery slope whereby anti-abortion MPs then come back next time for another reduction?
Watching some of today’s debate I was struck by the MPs who said words along the lines of “I don’t agree with this for Christian reasons but that’s not the only reason……” Well I wonder. How many people who are not religious voted for the various restrictions today ? It didn’t look like many to me. So it makes me think it really did come down to religion for the vast majority of people but many didn’t want to admit it.
If that’s the case with the abortion vote then extreme care is required when coming to a decision.
Re 473, Patrick, I appreciate your sentiments but when you say Southampton will be an easy regain for Labour, I would point out that people do not vote just on public services or child care but tax as well. That said I know nothing of the political conditions there.
475 Benedict,I liked you when we met at the pb party in April 2007-but how could one place John Major and Tony Blair on the same planet-well,I know its history now,and I’ll be really fair,I felt sorry for Major in the way his backbechers behaved like spoilt school brats-Blair,after 4 tersm out was,by my own admission,near-Stalinist in his control-freakery of his own party-but the amn’s record is there,in the history books.
(Its scary,but I confess to finding David Cameron human and quite likeable-I’m extremely tired,so will bid you good night.Byeeeeeeee!)
Sadly people don’t vote for councillors on their record or effort. Plaid Cymru were winning awards in RCT in 2002 after the Labour administration were slated in 1998-99 but they still got booted out en masse in 2003.
People vote for parties not people usually.
There are certain occasions when not but most people just don’t know who their councillors are. I think mine are Lib Dem but I couldn’t tell you for sure and I’m a geek.
Re 478, Patrick “but how could one place John Major and Tony Blair on the same planet”
Because the latter spent the first fews years of his premiership undoing all of the formers reforms then the last years bringing them back in!
Re 479, David Roe “There are certain occasions when not but most people just don’t know who their councillors are. I think mine are Lib Dem but I couldn’t tell you for sure and I’m a geek.”
Well in my neck of the woods one of our local councilors does not do election campaigning in a spurt. He has already been around to introduce himself to his ward over the last 4 years. He does a good job.
Fortunately i think most of the Tory rhetoric on the Local Govt Pension scheme is based on a certain degree of ignorance. That it is more generous than private sector schemes is not in doubt, but it is by no means the most generous (in benefits or employee contributions), nor, relatively, the most expensive and unsustainable public sector scheme.
It is basically the same as the teachers scheme (with far more low paid workers) and has already been reformed in a way to the significant disadvantage of its newer members. (we have to work five more years to avoid losing up to 23%).
In addition many of the more radical floated ideas for change (switching from final salary to “average salary”, for example) would have SIGNIFICANT administrative cost implications. Plus thousands of Tory councillors are probably members.
So it’s a bit of a worry, but hopefully it will be OK.
Mike, your view of John Denham has duly been noted over at the Coffee house blog.
One to watch
“John Denham is now only 7 to 1 to be the next leader of the Labour party and Mike Smithson is tipping him as the potential Gordon replacement best placed to keep the government alive in the south. So, I was interested to see how he’d do on Straight Talk which is one of the tougher, most intellectually rigorous interviews out there. (You can watch the interview here)”
481 - The most commmitted councillor I ever met managed to lose his seat and he was obsessive in his efforts for his constituents. Ah well. Good luck to your man, he sounds top.
484.My councillor is very committed, and the fact that his support increased in subsequent elections is testimony to that. Another indication is the amount of local people who tell me that they vote for him despite their clear support for other parties in Holyrood and Westminster elections.
When you have not one, but two died the wool Scottish Socialists proudly voting for a Tory in local elections it says it all really.
Yet another Labour-backed crackpot idea passed today. I’m absolutely sick as a pig-human hybrid…
Have these smug, suicidal people never heard of the phrase “the road to hell is paved with good intentions…”?
Only the latest in a long line of socialist follies..
The Welfare State…
Abortion on Demand..
Sex-Discrimination Act..
Positive Discrimination..
Multi-culturism..
Immigration-on-demand..
All-women shortlists..
Racially-aggravated crime..
Devolution..
Declassification (then reclassification) of cannabis..
Credit-crunch..
ID cards..
and now…
welcome to Britain…. the Island of Dr. Moreau
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Island_of_Dr._Moreau
At the next available opportunity, I’m gone from this socialist paradise…
Sorry for those left behind to live this nightmare..
Nick Palmer re your bill
What exactly is the problem you are trying to solve here ? Are you concerned that there are people who are requesting abortions because they mistakenly think that a cleft lip is a serious handicap ? Even if that were the case, doesn’t the physician already have the obligation to put them straight and explain that it isn’t that serious (as defined by law), rather than go forward with the procedure?
Or are you concerned that doctors and clinics are deliberately overstating the risks and hence encouraging abortions for fairly mild genetic ailments. Either would seem to be questionable medical ethics and surely malpractice.
Also is your proposal that these fact sheets be available to all potential patients, or just those seeking to benefit from the “severe” clause who are past 24 weeks ?
487. Wake Up!
Doctors and Politicians have a dis-proportionate number of psychopaths within their ranks…
ref: ["Without Conscience", Robert. D. Hare, Ph.D]
Harold Shipman?
I saw a doctor deliberately “finish-off” my uncle in his own home with an injection in 1999. It happens every day. Shipman was stopped for getting greedy: i.e. stealing property, not for killing people…
Tony Blair?
War Criminal at-large, should be tried in-absentia…
488. Shipman was only *caught* because he badly forged the former Mayoress’s will, yes. But there were suspicions about him in Hyde before that, and I wouldn’t rule out him having been caught had he just kept on murdering.