Paddy Power pays out on C&N
May 21st, 2008
Are the bookies really taking a hammering?
The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has followed up its early payout on Boris in the London Mayoral election by repeating the exercise with the Tories in Crewe and Nantwich. In the former the money came after the polls had closed but before the count. With tomorrow’s by-election the polling stations have not even opened yet.
This is good publicity stunt and shows the view of the betting community that a Tory victory tomorrow is close to a certainty.
William Hill has put out a press release suggesting they will be hammered by the result. A spokesman said: “We have taken in total just £45 - one bet of £20 and another of £25 for Labour to win this by-election - and we face a six figure payout if - when - the Tories win. It is the most one-sided by-election ever in betting terms. The Conservatives have gone from 4/5 favourites when the book opened to 1/33 and we have taken bets of up to £40,000 a time for them.”
Oh dear - poor William Hill. We will all be crying into our beer tonight! You can still bet on Betfair - the latest Tory price is 0.04/1.
Assuming the result is as expected my guess is that there will be a lot of activity on the commons seats spread betting markets. This certainly happened after Boris won the mayoralty and I am sure we will see it on Friday. In preparation I have built up what is for me a reasonably large Labour sell position.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Eek that anecdote is painful!
1 - Agreed, is why spreadbetting seems a bit too risky for me!
“Six figure payout” - well nearly half of that is the £40k bet at 1/10 or whatever it was! Payout ≠ Loss!!!
What happens if you simply can’t pay? Are they allowed to come round and break your legs?
So has Milburn been seen counting his winnings?
“Yesterday I had lunch with someone who bought Labour at £100 a seat …….. and he is facing a loss of about £10,000. Fortunately he was still able to pick up the tab for the meal!”
You know something Mike, you’re all heart you are.
“381 - Financing was not a problem, it could have been done through big soft donations to the state parties.”
And those donations would have come from Democratic donors, who would otherwise be giving to the DNC, who are struggling as it is because of the prolonged primary.
“The rules argument is even weaker. The whole nomination system needs reform and voters matter more than states. What you are saying is that the votes of millions of people should be ignored because of some byzantine rules, designed for another century.”
I agree the rules are bizarre and should be changed, but the time to do this is before the contests starts. If Florida and Michigan got to have two bites of the cherries this time, why wouldn’t they, and several other states, do the same thing next time round?
“The seating is irrelevant. When it happens it won’t correspond to the actual voting, it will be a deal stitched up in a backroom.”
Well, that depends. I think it is still possible they will be seated as they are, as Obama should have a very heavy superdelegate lead by the time of the convention. But we shall see.
In addition, just think where we would be right now if MI and FL were due to vote a few days after Puerto Rico. The Clinton campaign would still be going hell for leather in their attacks on Obama; his campaign would still have to be spending huge sums of money that could be saved for marginal seats in the Fall; and the media narrative would be him losing a big state as he headed towards the convention.
I do genuinely regret the fact that Floridian and Michigan Democrats didn’t get a valid vote this time round, but the fault of that is squarely on the state parties who persisted in this despite repeated warnings from the DNC.
6 PfP. Rumour has it that Mike gave the chap the price of a bus fare …. well three stops at least !!
Clearly everything favours the Tories at the moment, they have the political momentum.
However it is interesting that the figures would be so one-sided. Are Tory supporters more likely to bet? Yes, I know they won’t always back their own side, but it reminds me a little of when English football teams play in Europe - they’re odds are always too tight. Might betting against the Tories be a good long-term option, as they may often be over-priced.
4 - You have to be able to cover the maximum fall, I think.
4. Well if Angus (statto) Loughran is anything to go by, you get made bankrupt.
Surprised your friend never closed at a loss Mike. When did he think it would improve?
“Its Over…”
341 (from previous thread)
Brighton Pavilion!
re 9. In spite of the euphoria amongst Tories the commons spread markets do not reflect the opinion poll leads. The mid points suggest a Tory majority of 45-50 - not the landslide that some polls have suggested.
I think it needs something like a sensational by election to move the betting.
Mike it obviously was’t a cabinet minister or he would have put it on Mr Speaker Martin’s expenses!!
We in Scotland only got to watch the first half of the Newsnight debate in Crewe last night because at 23.00hrs it switches to Newsnight Scotland. Did it continue in the same vein?
Paxo putting to Geoff Hoon and Tamsin Dunwoody that their Tory Toff campaign was at best inept and at worst offensive and untrue was wonderful to watch. He alluded to the fact that TD is in Debretts Peerage unlike the Tory candidate. I assume that’s because her mother was the Hon. G Dunwoody (before she became a Privy Counsellor)daughter of a Peer?
Has anyone been there today and is there any sign of the classic LibDem final 24 hr push? After tomorrow will they reinstate the candidate they dumped and will Labour appoint TD as candidate for another seat they “desperately want to hold”?
387/392 (previous thread) - I think I’d prefer my const. Leeds North West to be termed ‘Skyrack’ instead. Much more dignified, and in keeping with Elmet on the other side of Leeds.
14. I think a majority of around 40-60 would be absolutely perfect for the Tories, to be honest. I’m instinctively wary of landslide majorities as I think a huge majority allows a government to become arrognat and lazy. I wonder if Blair would have achieved more in his first and second terms had he not had the luxery of such big majorities? Certainly his attiude towards the Commons and the country would have had to have been substantially differant.
Mike, What do you call sensational?? what kind of majority are you thinking of?
For the Tories to hold a by-election used to be senstational.
Oregon Update - O-59/C-41 - 94% reporting :
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=OR
“A spread betting warning. Yesterday I had lunch with someone who bought Labour at £100 a seat in the immediate aftermath of Gordon’s conference speech last September. The level he went in at was 332. It has now dropped by 100 seats and he is facing a loss of about £10,000. ”
Bloody hell.
I’d never do it without a stop-loss. No way.
But, I’m not using SPIN anyway. They’ll take down the market for about 2 weeks following the by-election result tomorrow night, increase the buy/sell spread and then post up crap prices.
Spreadfair, or forget it!
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Labour–braced-for-byelection.4103120.jp
Asked about what he made of the anti-toff drive, the Prime Minister revealed: “When I was fighting my own constituency campaign I had someone in a kilt playing a bagpipe. These things happen in a by-election.”
When was there a by-election in Kirkcaldy? And what kind of demented campaign would attack the candidate in a Scottish seat for being Scottish? Did any of this really happen?
Labour’s desperate spin on Crewe:
“One Minister who visited the constituency recently reports that it looked “f***ing catastrophic” for Labour.
Another candidly admits that they have already lost before a vote is cast and insists it would be a triumph if they kept the Tory majority down to a couple of thousand – a plausible bit of spin until you remember that Crewe has returned a Labour MP since the Second World War.”
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/05/labours-despera.html
22. Hardly the same league is it. The man’s mentally falling apart.
Mississippi SD Wayne Dowdy endorses Obama :
http://www.wreg.com/Global/story.asp?S=8359743
17. After Blair realised 1997 was a landslide he saw the Commons as a novel sideshow for six years. Only when Labour MPs started getting fidgety about Iraq and Top-up fees did he start to pay them any notice at all!
26. Forgot to mention that the Commons largely *was* a novel sideshow for those years. It was personal rule by Blair, Brown and Campbell, and Parliament was the rubber stamp.
From previous thread’s end -
“394 - A rerun with Clinton backers’ money would not have been acceptable, even polls, when backed by unions (as with unison and the London mayoralty) are seen as tainted. You can multiply that many times for an actual election.
I always make political choices on the nature of campaigns as much on policy, that’s why I consider the labour campaigning in C&N to be vile, why I disliked the 80’s and 90’s tory campaigning and so on.
Clinton made herself anathema to me by her tactics. As someone who will fight that sort of thing with every fibre of my being it was inevitable and based on her (and Carville and co’s) actions not on personality. I dislike politicians because of how they do things, never because of who they are.
I was a Clinton I supporter even to the end of his presidency, he’d gained enough good points to outweigh the later mistakes. Clinton II gambled hers away in next to no time, it wasn’t inevitable but it rapidly became so.
I would have liked reruns myself, the problem is that there was no plausible way of doing so put forwards that would have been affordable and non-partisan. In the circumstances what would have been good wasn’t available as an option.
by ukpaul May 21st, 2008 at 7:35 pm “
7 - Socrates you are wrong about the soft donations. Some Clinton backers were prepared to put in millions, Steve Bing being one IIRC. The maximum donation limit to the BNC is £28,500.
Of course it is not ideal that the rules were not adhered to. I’m not saying it is an ideal situation. But your argument reminds me of free market fundamentalists railing against moral hazard. Yes it is a danger, but it is sometimes necessary to stop greater problems. In this case Obama will probably get away with it. If it had been closer though there would have been an almighty mess. If the exclusion of MI and FL had made a real difference the Obama nomination would have been tainted and it would have been harder in the fall. Regardless, the cycle has shown going first is not always an advantage and that the whole system needs to be reworked. The benefits of this moral hazard outweigh the costs.
You’re right that re-runs would have been politically risky but that is why it would have had so much symbolic value. He would have been putting the voters ahead of his political interests. Clinton has been attacking Obama for months, a few more weeks would have made little difference. And her attacks have been tame compared to the GOP. Also, he would likely have raised more money to pay for the campaigning. He raised most in March when there were most contests and this spending would have helped him in the fall, boosting name recognition and building networks. At the end of the process there would still have very likely been a clear winner in terms of PV and pledged delates and he would have been a stronger nominee.
23 The Crewe and Nantwich seat of today is nothing like as Labour as the pre 1983 Crewe seat . It is instructive to compare the GE result in 2005 with the County Council results on the same day . It is clear from these that around 5,000 of the 7,000 majority was a Dinwoody personal vote .
Now off to play my Team Knock Out Bar Billiard Final match , we are the underdogs but you never know .
9
Give your money to William Hill, then.
30 - do you have a bar (billiard) chart to show that you can win?
28 - I read an interesting article that argued the Clinton lost the nomination because her team didn’t do a thorough job with oppo research. If Rev. Wright had come out on the eve of Iowa Obama would probably have lost.
Fair enough, but I think you overestimate the difference between the two. Obama has taken enough shots at Clinton, comparing her to Anne Oakley and going on about tax returns for weeks. It may not have been as intensive but it wass still there.
I strongly disagree with the idea that a re-run was not possible. I don’t see how a poll would have been tainted. Independent people completely unconnected would be doing it, state officials. The poll analogy doesn’t work. Polls can be manipulated through the way questions are asked. Election can’t, and if they are that is a criminal offence.
I am not in any doubt that if the roles were reversed that Obama would have pushed strongly for a re-run. Just try and think ukpaul what your attitude would have been if the roles had been reversed. If Clinton had been leading and had stopped re-runs I’m sure you would have said it was undemocratic, excluding people from the the process.
This is a case where Obama’s rhetoric and message seem to collide with his actions.
O/T-As a city fan I am hoping for Utd to do the business. The 2 least likable teams in football, but putting a good punt on Utd will help make it more exciting.
Has anyone else here got bets on the match? Curiosity killed the cat.
shame there is no market for the size of the majority. IMO could be as much as 10K.
33 - That was a pretty awful article, basically saying that she needed to be even more in hock to GOP dog whistle tactics.
My attitude is based on what the rules were and are, you can’t change them midstream. I would have accepted the outcome and suggested that the rules needed to be changed the next time.
It’s down to what the rules are, if you don’t stick to them then what’s the point?
I’d much prefer an election using PR and was upset that labour managed to win a majority with 35% of the vote. I never suggested rerunning that election with the rules changed, just that changing the rules before next time would be welcome.
30 Mark Senior in a competition where his team are the underdog - what a shock !!
will you be trying to convince your opponents that if you deduct all the really good shots they made your team would actually have won?
34. I’ve backed Chelsea to win in extra time at 11/1.
37 - Mark is one of the truly neutral posters on this site. And I say that as a committed LD.
38- Henry- a good bet.
36 - Fair enough, and we’ve had this debate before, but I think you are being too dogmatic. A way could have been found to let these voters have a say if the will was there. You talk about the rules but the rules allowed a re-run. It was within the rules for the states to enter new plans to the DNC.
In any event my point was more political than moral. It was in Obama’s long-term political interests to push for re-runs, therefore it was a mistake not to.
Catch you all at the end of the match. Off to betfair now for the next 2 hours or so
william hill do come out with some crap!
39 Is that a sarcastic comment?
34 Tyson. As a Scot it was tricky knowing who to support. In the end I decided on the quality of the seasons diving.
Ronaldo gets 5.7 for technical merit and 6.0 for artistic impression.
Drogba gets 5.9 for technical merit and 5.9 for artistic impression and accordingly just edges it for a Chelsea win !!
39. Yeah and I’m a marxist!
14 - that’s because the spread market represent a weighted average of possible outcomes. With polls so onesided and effectively at the very edge (or even beyond) realistic outcomes you wouldn’t expect the spread markets and polls to coincide so far out from an election. Any discrepancy between the two is only really meaningful when we are close to the election.
39. LOL!
44 - well what do you think?
I respect his loyalty to his party. I am not so loyal.
Mark tirelessly collated each year’s local results and offers up a big spreadsheet of all the results once this is done. That is a great service. Rather more looking forward to seeing the Eastleigh tallies than, say, the Romsey ones.
39
Lol
Poster of the week:-)
FAO Jack W and ukpaul in particular. SUSA California poll with VP candidates. Doesn’t tell us much as the weightings are out again. Interestingly on the baseline poll they have McCain winning Hispanics 49-42.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f25df9e5-868d-428e-9395-359684cc7901
29. “But your argument reminds me of free market fundamentalists railing against moral hazard.”
Well, I am more free market than you! I guess it depends on how much harm this single time would take, and how much the moral hazard problem would set in. At the end of the day, this is just the way a private party chooses their nominee, and I don’t think it’s that unfair that people wishing to seek that nomination should have to play by the rules. If Clinton wants to stand as an independent, she is welcome to do it.
51 - Yet again Edwards is by far the best choice here (I presume Webb would be a similar help, although being less well known, not immediately so).
The Betfair Pawlenty VP price is ridiculous looking at these figures.
51. Why on Earth is Pawlenty such a drag? It can’t be just lack of name recognition can it?
45- Jack very clever as usual. The match is boring, and I have drifted onto pbCOM
49. I think it’s more the Tory hatred than the Lib Dem loyalty. He would be greatly missed if he wasn’t here though.
54. I have a theory. Pawlenty is voraciously anti-immigration (he sent the Minnesota national guard troops to police the southern border!) and might be well known in Hispanic circles, causing McCain to lose both Mexican and Cuban votes. Thoughts?
55. Tis a dull game. Did Makelele get booked then. That was my big bet.
I am utterly astonished that only *two* people in the whole country put £20 on Labour to retain what is, lets face it, one of their safest seats.
All those bellicose statements by the Labour MP’s; ministers and campaign managers on the Labour side and none of them actually believed their blulhsit enough to put their money down.
Amazing.
58 Both booked. What happens? Think Makelele got his first.
Could be a big pick up!
Great spot by Aaron!!
58. Yes just before Scholes.
60. Going to have to have a look at Corals rules. I think it was him first judging by the reaction.
61. Yes I owe Aaron a drink if we’ve won.
I nearly backed Labour on betfair for Crewe. Admittedly, I had a bottle of wine and got slightly confused by tis back/ lay business.
Come on Ronaldo
Ave it! Ronaaaaaaaldo!
Paddy Power will be issuing a profits warning tomorrow after that goal.
65. According to BBC Scholes booked on 20;06 and Makele 21;16. Looked other way round to me!
Cracking goal. Beautiful in its simplicity.
51 Kieran. Thanks. Obama only scoring around 80% AA !! 6% AA is correct but no adjusted turnout filter. Ah well they’ll learn.
55 Tyson. The lure of PB !!
Well tipped Aaron (and freethy)
65 - I did back Labour for Crewe, it was only a fiver but a bit too speculative in retrospect.
72 - On betfair that is.
This match is going to the death- Chelski will get back in
United are stitching them up like the Russian Imperial Kipper.
71. We have won that haven’t we shadsy?
59 - Only two people backed them at William Hill. If you’re going to back something for value you might as well get the best odds for it.
59 Marcus. “Blulhsit …” is that a Tory cure for piles ??
Northern Rock Pt 2.
Bradford & Bingley share price 104p
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BB.L
Looks clear to me Makelele was booke first. Scholes was sparko.
76 woody. “Calm down dear..” Copyright Michael Winner.
76. I would think so, but Corals may have some sneaky rules which might halve our payout.
“Sparko”? Nice word. What mean?
Is John Edwards a vp candidate? Surely he should be looking after his terminally ill wife?
Who was the idiot who said this match was boring?
This is a ROCKING match.
Incredible saves.
81. I’ve bought a new car today Jack. I need the money!!!!
Hell of a save by Cech there.
83 seanT. “sparko” - I think somewhat agitated.
This is a truly abysmal football match. I couldn’t bring myself to back either. I just hope that they all behave after the game and the TVs in Red Sq stay on!
84. Oh, he should be up there, although Attorney General is probably more likely. Enormously popular among Southern rural whites.
83 Spark out, dear boy.
Man U are on fire.
Is Alex Ferguson the best club manager? In the world? Ever? It’s certainly arguable.
What are the odds on the Russians getting a few watercannon out tonight in Red Square?
89 - If this is an abysmal match i’d like to see a good one.
a great game….wow
a great game….wow
92. Brain Clough always teased him that he had 2 and he only had 1 (I think he was talking about European cups).
Both socialists which is a shame.
80. Both on 21 minutes according to Yahoo matchcast. Suppose it depends which source they have in the rules.
Could do with a Chelsea goal but doesn’t really look like one.
Malouda’s looking wooden.
Still confused as to meaning of “sparko”. Will use anyway in conversation.
1 yr ago, Bradford & Bingley were 500p.
Now, 104p.
Here is a nice 1 yr graph
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BB.L&t=1y
Jesus. Man U should be three or four up.
92. Beckenbauer?
Corals have settled Makelele as 1st booking. Great tipping.
Newcastle are playing a fantastic match. Fantastic!!
(er…?)
lol. GREAT game.
Oh Aaron!! Join the Pantheon Of Great PB Tippers.
1-1 come on chels
Great tipping Aaron. And Lampard has just scored too! I haven’t had a bet so I’m kicking myself. My own thought was to back Ronaldo to score first. So all in all…
LOL I wonder if that will work again. Man Utd could really do with having a player sent off, but it looks unlikely
Looks like Shearer might do it..
C’mon ALAN!!!!
Ugh. Horrible foul. C*** should have been redcarded for that. I want Man U to win now.
But what a match!
Is the football happening now? It must be nearly midnight in Moscow.
Paddy Power are refunding losing bets on the match if ROnaldo scored. Should cost them a fair bit.
113. I’m in a little city in Turkish Thrace. We’re on Moscow Time - it’s only 10.40pm.
BBC reporting another data protection breach.
Tory party worker accidentally sends details of 8000 people to radio station.
You could not make it up!
F**king hell. Gazzer just missed - AGAIN!!
Is Gordon Brown watching or something?
Football matches, like the Eurovision song contest, always start at a time to suit the Brits.
re 101 doesn’t look all that healthy on a linear scale either
101 and here’s a remarkably similar one for Royal Bank of Scotland - the home of a rapidly shrinking share of the Bongo (mis)fortune. B&B look totally up the creek to me and N Rock pt II may well be in the making
href=”http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RBS.L&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=”
is there some sort of association football match on tonight?
re 115 but Moscow is on summer time
116. Aw god. I can feel another law coming on.
115, 118. Actually, scrap that. We’re in the same time zone as Minsk here. I think Moscow is an hour further on.
So yes, it must be nearly midnight in Russia (unless I’m getting confused by BST).
121 - so?
Oopppps … more American Pastor problems …. this time for McCain :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/21/mccain-backer-hagee-said_n_102892.html
re 120 don’t I know it! I had the request today for even more of my money. They’re offering them at a 42p premium so I suppose it might be worth a punt just to cover the other losses.
Once they get to a certain level B&B will just be taken over. What’s the problem?
124. I just Googled it. Chris is right. It’s nearly midnight in Red Square.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7413826.stm
Probe into Tory email mistake…
“The Information Commissioner is launching an investigation after the Conservatives accidentally sent details of 8,000 people to a radio station.
The e-mail sent contained the names, addresses, telephone numbers and intentions of voters in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.”
“Once they get to a certain level B&B will just be taken over. What’s the problem?”
The fact that the only obvious likely buyers at the moment for screwed-up banks appear to be people who are paying with taxpayers’ money?
129 - I could make a cheap political point now, but I shall refrain from it.
59 Friend of mine just got back from Crewe today. Labour to lose by 5000 he predicts, and he’s fought elections every year since 1980. So that might explain prudent betting by them.
Moscow matches only start at local time in the early rounds (about 1800 CET).
The money on betfair is staggering for the match. Would be nice just to go an hour in the future for a quick peek on things.
A bargain is a bargain
re 124 but the world clock suggests that Moscow summer time is +4 on GMT so it must be ten to midnight.
134. What kind of sums? I can’t see - betting websites seem to be blocked in Turkey!
116. I wonder what the 8000 names represent?
If its all the Tory pledges, that doesn’t seem a lot, since they got 14,000 votes last time.
137. Just hit 10 million traded
re 136 I notice the server clock seems to be in a time zone of its own as well.
137
20 000 000 CAD$ of Matched money.
138. Hopefully it’s just Nantwich
142 - or crewe
Whatever, it is an almighty balls up. And the Tories can’t blame the civil service.
127 “Once they get to a certain level B&B will just be taken over. What’s the problem?”
Quite.
Thats what we said about Northern Rock. What happened?
50Billion quids later, another one butes the dust…
A bargain might be a bargain, but an entity whose core business consists of having made increasingly unsound loans, secured on assets which are falling in value, using money which is becoming more expensive to get, is probably not a bargain unless it comes free, and probably better than free - with a dowry.
137, 141. Crikey.
Rather puts the £45 waged on Labour to win Nantwich into perspective.
13- seanT- over 10m on the winner. I would guess 50 mill plus just on betfair for this match.
135 “A bargain is a bargain”
Bradford & Bingley is 80% off, you and Roger should buy now. Although you may find you owe billions.
This is 11 years under Labour.
144 Whatever, it is an almighty balls up. And the Tories can’t blame the civil service.
Its not good but its not like losing 25million. I think the 8000 names represent tomorrow’s majority:)
It is true, but when you tell a canvasser how you vote, you don’t expect them to report it to the media. Voting intention is sensitive personal data (like relgion, sexuality, trade union membership). Name and address are not deemed sensitive personal data.
Excellent game. Can’t look away for a minute.
Lampard is playing like a man possessed
Where can we watch the C&N results come through tomorrow night?
Don’t tell me… The BBC have nothing planned.
154 - watch news 24, I guess. Any clue what time?
152. Can you shut up already Sean! I’m exiled out here in the US, and I’ve given up trying to find places to watch football after last time I took a late lunch hour to find a place and they turned over twenty minutes in.
Chelski now favourites on betfair
Obama was a very bad boy
In State Legislature Altercation, Obama ‘Had To Be Physically Restrained.’
151. oh please get over yourself.
re 154 the BBC do have a programme. No doubt Jeremy Vine will be camping it up, perhaps Thomas the Tank Engine given the constituency’s profile.
156. Latino bars are usually a good bet in America, for football. Mexican rather than Cuban.
But I guess it’s a bit late… and you probably know this…
157. So they should be. They’re on top now. Spiffing stuff (sorry Socrates)
152- seanT- one time me and thee are singing from the same hymn sheet.
154 “Where can we watch the C&N results come through tomorrow night?
Don’t tell me… The BBC have nothing planned.”
The BBC have a special on “How the TORIES sent details of 8000 people to a RADIO station!”
Apparently there was a posibility, the RADIO station was going to read the details ON AIR!
Seems to me, the Radio station will do nothing with the accidental data.
Unlike the millions of details lost under Labour - or indeed the details, Labour sells to anyone wishing to buy.
SBS, you are pathetic.
BBC, this will not save Labour. You will be broken up and privatised.
I can’t believe anyone would bet on Gordon after he made that truly awful, turgid, leaden speech at last year’s Labour conference. I’m sorry - but the man deserves to lose money with judgement like that.
164 - “SBS, you are pathetic.”
Love you too, sweetie.
re 154. The BBC programme is being anchored by John Sopel and will not involve Jeremy Vine.
Here is a nice graph of Bradford & Bingley’s share price ove 2 years…notice what happens in september last year.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BB.L&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
black Republican commentator Larry Johnson on the Michelle Obama rumour Sean T heard the other night:
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/05/16/will-barack-throw-mama-from-the-train/
164 - but you’d keep Channel four in state hands, then, despite the fact that it clearly is a commercial channel?
I predict Man U will sneak it in the last 5.
This stinks of extra time. Look how little movement there is from midfield from both sides - they’re settling for it already.
167.Mike the comment @ 5.20pm on the previous thread was not posted by me?
169.Test, I can’t get your link to work.
OMFG.
172. Yeah, right, that’s why Drogba just hit the post.
Drogba’s not a midfielder, last I checked
170 Sorry, did you want to talk about something else? ok.
err…yes, good idea. Channel 4’s very excellent Dispatches program justifies License fee money by itself.
With Dispatches, Channel 4 demonstrated a willingness to serve truth and the British people.
The BBC demonstrates that it is at best Labour & Leftie Propaganda and at worse, a puerile waste of money.
Those at the BBC that actually serve the British people, rather than Labour & Political Correctness, shall be retained in a smaller BBC. The rest can find jobs at the Guardian.
176. Actually I’d rather like it to go to extra time. It’s such an enjoyable match.
But I’ve a hunch Man U will edge it beforehand.
Back to politics I am so sorry
More ammunition for the Opposition, I only hope the link works
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3351275215846218544
QUOTE
Feb 7, 2008
TAKING LIBERTIES is a shocking but hilarious polemic documentary that charts the destruction of all your Basic Liberties under 10 Years of New Labour. Released to coincide with Tony Blair’s departure, the film and the book follow the stories of normal people who’s lives have been turned upside down by injustice - from being arrested for holding a placard outside parliament to being tortured in Guantanamo Bay.
More new laws than any other government in history, 1 every day for 10 years.
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/05/16/will-barack-throw-mama-from-the-train/
178: always possible - there isn’t a lot of midfield tracking going on either, so shots from outside the box have more room (and with Scholes/Ballack/Lampard that’s pretty dangerous). Ferdinand is really struggling too, wouldn’t like to see him isolated against Drogba.
It’s insanity paying out before the polls have even opened
I recall a few years ago bookies paid out on Manchester United winning the title only to see them have a late slump and lose out on it
180
Here is a counter-point: The Case For Skepticism on that Michelle Obama Rumor
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDk3MDM3M2MxMDVlYjZlNGM4MmEyNzQ2YzE0ZDcwNTk=
a great game but its going to extra time
181. I think you are right now though - they are playing for extra time now. The last two Man U attacks have been very timid.
179 3000 new laws…
Illegal to import potatoes from poland…
Then there is that Apple Core problem.
Thank god for that. Stood to lose 300 squidlies if Chelski scored late. Phew…
Will this be down in the records as 21/22 May match?
No matter how many times you write about it being a great game Sean, I can’t agree. Tense, yes, but bad tempered and not high in quality. The pitch is clearly not up to scratch.
Of course, being a Leeds fan its a damn sight better than I’m used to watching
I just hope it isn’t a bobble on the pitch causing the winner (unless it is Drogba or Ronaldo who screw up, that would be amusing).
Je ne le crois pas, Philippe! But I thought it was interesting to see it referred to in print after the discussion the other night.
If such a tape were to exist we’d have seen it by now.
38
Now your bet looks fantastic!
182 - Paddy Power get a hell of a lot of publicity for these pay-outs. Sometime it bites them on the bum (like with the Ronaldo specials today) but it definitely works out for them in the long run with the column inches they gain.
182 - It just comes out of the marketing budget.
180 - It was crap when I posted it last night too. As I said, it’s the political equivalent of a nice Nigerian man offering us lots of money.
179 The Walter Wolfgang was disgraceful.
New Labour. New Danger.
Chuck the facists out.
188. This is just nonsense - because you dislike and envy Man U and Chelsea.
It’s highly skilful (just watch Ronaldo, or Ferdinand in defence); it’s passionate and fast; it’s lusty and virile. There’s been two goals - one of them a pearl. Drogba’s hit the post with an incredible shot; the game has swung from one team dominating to the other; and now it’s so close it’s gone into Extra Time.
And all of this in the Champions League Final. Perhaps you would like Pele to come on age 19 and score a goal from six miles out?
17 GIN. There is an alternative view of a very large majority - it gives the Whips a big choice to work on, for future talent. Reference has been made to governments getting tired in a third term (I hope it comes to that!) -a number of bright and eager back-benchers snapping at their heels will be essential to prevent staleness, as wellas being a source of new ideas.420 MPs seems about right to me!
179 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3351275215846218544
Arrested for wearing a t-shirt saying “Bollocks to Blair”?!?
The policeman ordered her to “Take her Top off”.
Kick Labour out. Get our country back
Test - Also, I’m not sure why you think his race is relevant but I would have hoped his picture on his blog alerted you to his whiteness….
Betfair pays much more quickly on sports than on politics…
198 you’re right I was thinking of Larry Elder. My bad, as they say over there.
Best campaign ad ever?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2UesvrH-cs
I am always amazed at the speed you guys get at the facts. Here’s one for you - what is the record turn-out at a by-election?
Gosh Cheski are a good team. That midfield is formidable
199- already got a nice windfall from the draw. Thanks betfair
Please not penalties. Pleeeeze. Game doesn’t deserve it.
rooney was rubbish….. come on chels
179 Walter Wolfgang stated that Steve Forrest was assaulted for shouting “Leave the Old Man Alone”
Kick the Labour buggers out
Hrrrm, evens on eventual winner market. Chelsea look quite good there - they have better penalty takers (Drogba, Lampard, Ballack…. and just brought on Anelka with that in mind), and Cech is better at saving penalties.
McCain has arranged to meet with Charlie Crist and Bobbie Jindal.
208. Yes I’d favour Chelsea for the penalties. Just cause of Cech. Man U may feel the same - they have palpably upped the tempo.
Rooney has been bollox until now. He needs to turn it on, when it counts.
206:
Yes, Rooney trudges off without troubling the scorers. What a talentless, overrated little munchkin he really is.
bit of a tory cock up in C&N////
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7413826.stm
91.5%
re 186 I favour new Labour loony law is the Nuclear Explosions (Prohibition and Inspections)Act 1998 which gets right to the nitty gritty in section 1 by stating
1.
Causing a nuclear explosion.
— (1) Any person who knowingly causes a nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion is guilty of an offence and liable on conviction on indictment to imprisonment for life.
God alone knows how we ever got on without this penalty beforehand.
211 Non story given top billing by Labour’s BBC
See posts 163,164 as well as others.
209. Update: He will be meeting with Jindal, Crist and Romney at his home this weekend. Source: NYT.
210: these usually go to penalties cos everybody’s knackered, so I took a punt.
Mind you, Man Utd have some pretty impressive penalty takers: Rooney, Scholes, Carrick, Ronaldo, Hargreaves, Giggs. I think Tevez used to take the penalties at Corinthians as well (and it takes some balls for an Argentinian to even step on the pitch in Brazil, let alone take the penalties!)
Why is it a “non-story”? Was the data disk scandal a “non-story”?
209
Indeed, mista, indeed:
Charlie Crist, the governor of Florida, and Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, have both accepted invitations to meet with Mr. McCain at his home in Arizona, according to Republican familiars with the decision. One Republican said that Mitt Romney, a former rival of Mr. McCain for the presidential nomination — is also expected to visit him this weekend. Mr. Romney’s advisers declined to comment.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/us/politics/21cnd-mccain.html?hp
Man, if Jindal is on the ticket, it might change the game.
re 213 oops that got a bit garbled at the beginning - it should have started My favourite new Labour loony law…
213 Didnt Britain have any laws to cover Nuclear Explosions before Ne Labour (New Danger)?
202 the record LOW turnout for a by-election was Hillary Benn’s Leeds Central win in 1999 - where turnout was just 19%.
I can’t decide which is best; Labour slumping to defeat or the bookies getting a right pasting…
216. Rooney is off. Once you are off you can’t take a spotkick, I believe.
213 - Presumably to clarify international obligations under test ban treaty, no?
Yes indeed, from the Introductory text:
“An Act to enable effect to be given to certain provisions of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty adopted in New York on 10th September 1996 and the Protocol to that Treaty; and for connected purposes.
[18th March 1998″
So not so Loony then
217 As you cant be bothered to read the posts above, I must repost.
So, lets see….
8000 details sent to a Radio station. The Radio station keeps the details confidential.
Millions (on seperate occaisions) of details lost - including applicants to the Military (usefule to terrorists). That data is out there. Where? Who knows.
Then there is the personal data that Labour sells to anyone who will pay.
Millions is many times more than thousands. Lost is different to data that remains confidential.
It is a non story, promoted by the BBC and lefties - out of desparation.
221 Mark. It’s the record high that is interesting. With so much at stake, could be broken to-morrow.
218. I’d fear Crist more than I would Jindal.
227 - not a hope
226. The only senstive data is voting intention as the rest is the electoral register. It’s a cock up but not on the scale of the inland revenue.
227 - Bet you a tenner it isn’t
227 - Will be lucky to break 50%. Don’t forget that low turnouts can be simply a function of one side not bothering to vote (differential turnout). With Labour voters expected to stay at home in large numbers no reason to expect particularly large turnout.
Oooo. Nice way to end his Chelsea career.
Oops. Drogba sent off.
AND a sending off. Epic. lol.
Happy slapping
Drogba just didn’t want to take a pen
betting now in Man Utds favour.
167. Thank Goodness.
Maybe the BBC took your comments on board Mike?
This will have no affect on the poll anyway!
The footy is the top story!
Probably a Lib Dem or Labour plot/ plant in the tory campaign!
Anyone seen that naughty Mark Senior!
Have you been imposentaing tories again!!! 
Your a very naughty boy! 
231 David Roe. Probably right. However, name a by-election that was more significant than this one?
217 No, there is a difference.
If a canvasser asks you how you will vote, you can perfectly easily say “It’s not any of your business.” You are volunteering information, if you answer.
By contrast, anyone with a child/children does not have option of saying “It’s not any of your business” if they wished to claim child benefit.
Of course, the Tories should have been more careful, but the two incidents are not really comparable in seriousness or in scale.
Horsey- are you Will thingy?
230 And even the voting intention information has presumably been freely given - rather than extracted under torture.
Is there any duty on a political party to keep the informaion confidential, if I freely and without condition tell someone on the doorstep who I intend to vote for?
Total non-story.
195 - So it’s not been tetchy and scrappy? 8 yellows and a red!
Just because people disagree with you doesn’t automatically mean they are talking nonsense. I said I disagreed with you not that you were talking nonsense. It will be interesting to see what the press says tomorrow. I bet half say great game and half say tense but not great.
I do wish Leeds were better than they are but I also hope Chelsea try develop a means of playing other than stifling the opposition in the next few years. Their spending should create a better footballing side than they have.
There are actually dead players on the pitch.
245-David- I hate Chelski, but by Gordon they have been great to watch tonight. What a team!
241 - I don’t know. But at 91.5% i can name one with a higher turnout
245: Chelsea will get a makeover this year - Makelele is now too old, Drogba and Lampard are 29 and might leave too.
They were more fun to watch when they had Duff+Robben.
245. “Just because people disagree with you doesn’t automatically mean they are talking nonsense.”
This is nonsense. Remember the first rule of pb.com: SeanT IS ALWAYS RIGHT.
The game has been aggressive and rumbustious. And also terrific entertainment - I think you will find most of the papers will agree with me.
180.Thanks Test.
Maybe they are hoping that just the rumour of such a clip will do the damage?
Unbelievable. over 10 mill on the winner on betfair and both teams are dead on evens
here we go penalties
248 Alex.???
Oh well, was hoping Chelsea would settle it in regular. Still make them favourites though, happy enough with the bet.
228
McCain is actually +9 in Fl : http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ against O’bama.
+ the fact that O’bama will presumably have problems with the Jews, I think Florida will be red.
Hence CC does not seem to me very ‘useful’ on the ticket.
+ his homosexual aura.
246. A bit like the Liberal Democrat party then - A dead Parrot!
I still think Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock!
243 be more specific
249. Isn’t the whole bizarre Avram thing (threatening to sack him despite his taking them to the Champions League Final) due to the fact that Abramovich wants a manager who will coach a more exciting team?
That’s what I read, anyway.
241 - By-elections are often significant. I would argue that this was no more significant than say South Antrim 2000, Christchurch 1993, Glasgow Govan 1988, Ashfield 1977, Walsall North 1976, Carmarthen 1966.
How about Rochdale 1958, the first election to be televised (no-doubt helping the career of Ludovic Kennedy).
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/images/2008/03/31/18_12_2007_123520_sun_nick_clegg__2.jpg
Betty!
254 - highest turnout in a by-election.
259 - The fact Roman agrees with me makes me uncomfortable
I would imagine that the highest turnout in a by-election would be one in Northern Ireland, where merily adopting the ethos of “vote early, vote often”, turnout in excess of 120% would be quite normal…..
261. You know what Martin, he reminds me of Neil Kinnock…
It’s a penalty shoot out …. and the Germans win ????
Hargreaves seems to be crying BEFORE he’s missed his penalty.
265. He reminds me of Neil Kinnock as well!
I suppose Skeleton was like Michael Foot and Clegg is a poorly performing Neil Kinnock!
The winker is too clever by half
Bottle job
Awful penalty
Hargreaves is great at penalties, dont mind him.
Irony that Ronaldo missed though, I thought Nani would be the mental weak link.
Poetic Justice - Ronaldo acts like a t*sser and pays the price!
portugese bottle job…. what a great game
256. McCain might have some problems with Jews seeing that Hagee just said Hitler was an agent of God.
I am worried that my last breath will utter Neil Kinnock!
Awriiight! Neil Kinnock!
Ashley Cole taking one ahead of Anelka??????
Real Madrid won’t want him now.
Has gordon flown out to watch the game?
Alex. Where?
Wowwee, Cole and Nani both so close to missing, keepers got both hands on them….
Terry? Good passer, bet he goes left.
OMFFFFGGGG!!!
Slipped.
264 - Correct. NI elections are a bit like the Blackadder III one. Mid-Ulster during the 60s. Bernadette Devlin.
On the footy, the pitch just stopped John Terry scoring. I hope they never use a disgraceful relaid pitch for a major European final again.
284. Or maybe it was the monsoonal rain?
United win it
Pathetic end to a good game, penalties always ruin a match.
260 David Roe.Did any of these threaten to bring down a government and end the career of a Prime Minister?
286
Ium listening on the internet, Ive only heard Terry miss…..
286 - Cool
Oh god, poor John Terry. And I think I actually mean that. Cruel, cruel, cruel.
But magnificent TV.
Fantastic. And there was me moaning about Utd Chelsea. great final. great, great final
288 - This one is being hyped out of all proportion though
Have to feel for Chelsea. Cruel game.
287 - Penalties are the ultimate test of bottle. Great way to end games.
swearing on live TV, haha
what a brilliant game……….. just brilliant
294. Nah.
Well done to Man Utd. They are a better side to watch than Chelsea so probably deserve to win.
**said through gritted teeth**
295 - Not a footballing test, they might as well have a dance-off. It just leaves a feeling of emptiness.
Small margins - Chelsea had the advantage once it went to penalties, with more certain scorers and a better keeper. That was their chance and they blew it.
Man Utd are the better team though, dont mind that they won.
299 - It’s more than a footballing test. It’s football + bottle.
288 - a by-election can only bring down a government if the government let it. I would suggest Ashfield and Christchurch put a sitting government on notice that they were on their way to a defeat.
299. If nothing else can divide teams, why not a test of pressure?
295. It’s a fair point. And penalties, however capricious, are always compellingly tense.
One of the best European finals I have watched.
It was ceretainly a great advert for the idea of having two English teams in the final. Long may it continue.
Have to wait for another 24 hours for the Blues to beats the Reds….
301 - Just turns me off the game, too many important matches settled by a turkey shoot. Give me a clean cut game anyday, maybe that’s why I prefer cricket (not too many bowl outs).
299 “they might as well have a dance-off”
Can I suggest that instead they have a game of British Bulldog - 1,2,3……
306 - If they were simply a turkey shoot then the Germans wouldn’t always win penalty shootouts and the English wouldn’t (nearly) always lose.
306: penalties are no lottery - ask the Germans. Did anyone wonder if Ballack would score today?
What is true is that penalty shootouts favour the technically good and mentally strong over the flaky and flair players.
298/299- when chelski got to terms with the match they were by far the better team.
#157 Oh dear!!!
Herbert’s link is excellent. I recommend all to watch.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3351275215846218544
The National ID Database is what the Eastern German Stasi would have had if they had the technology.
The Rwandan ID cards facilitated the Tutsi Genocide. Indeed, arguably, it wouldnt have happened without ID cards.
Kick the New Labour Fascists out.
308 - Surely you can’t believe that it was a fitting end to the game? It, and the viewers, deserved much better.
312. Must be a bummer for Chelsea’s boss - all that cash spent and still no European championship. Life just isn’t fair.
I should add that I was supporting neither, no real feelings either way other than that the British teams put on a good game, which they did.
313 You’re whining because you’re unhappy with the result.
307 passim. Penalties are also satisfying in a narrative, Hollywoody kind of way. They are like the blazing shoot-out that ends a cop drama, or the concluding swordfight, where the hero must finally kill the enemy.
I’m sure Robert Kee, author of Story, the Hollywood screenwriters’ Bible, would approve of “penalties”.
311 - Yet Man Utd were the better side in extra time. So you can look at it both ways.
313 - Of course most people prefer a clear winner. But when that isn’t possible a shootout is a decent substitute. (and better than a dubious penalty).
Nobody says “Liverpool 5 European Cups, but 2 in shootouts”.
313- ukpaul- as a city fan, and an avid Chelsea hater this was a great game, with a great finale. Well done the Reds (try not to choke), and just a great display by Chelsea.
One of the more memorable finals (Liverpool Milan excluded)
308. In Germany every team follows every training session with a penalty shootout. I don’t know why other countries don’t follow this example seeing how much it has helped them.
re 225 no it is loony - we do not need a statute which makes it a criminal offence to mass murder tens of thousands of people - we already have such laws so it’s entirely superfluous.
Just can’t work out why they have to spend so much time crying when they lose though…
321 - That is not what the law is for. Do you think the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is a pointless treaty?
323 (con) - Nuclear (test) explosions don’t have to kill people.
I thought it was a great game. No sympathy from me for Abramovitch.
317 - One of the problems is that they happen too quickly, the hero (better team) could suddenly die without any preparation or any reflection on their demise for example. Usually there is a build up and/or a denouement to satisfy the audience’s desires.
The sort of film where you get to the credits and you look at each other and say ‘was that the end?’
316 - Whoever you are, I don’t care about the result, I don’t support either team or dislike either team, I’m just interested in the game as satisfying spectacle.
Any chance of saying something less idiotic?
321 Most of the Laws introduced by the Fascist Labour Party are not needed.
The are however very useful for oppressing Law Abiding Subjects.
I see some tory klutz has emailed all their c&n canvass returns to a journo by mistake - information commissioner on the case already.
313 - When you say “the viewers deserved better” what do you mean? That they should have carried on playing all night?
305) Aberdeen will beat Rangers tomorrow to give the league to Celtic, so you maybe waiting a bit longer, or were you perhaps referring to some minor election down south?
329 Another twit comes out of the woodwork…
325. This will just motivate Abramovich even more - to come so close to his dream, yet fail.
Expect him to sack Grant pronto, then get in Rijkaard or someone similar - to create a billion-quid team that will also entertain.
328- horsey- will l I think. You are a very strange fellow. Still each to their own
334 be more specific
333- seanT- chelski were very entertaining tonight. Not flair mind, but more strength, determination and strategy.
330 - Well I never liked the way that the FA cup final was reduced to one match only and as for World Cups settled by penalties….
Starting the game with the penalties is a possibility. It preserves the ability to finish it off in one go but gives the impetus for at least one team to throw caution to the winds later on.
Back on thread…
Paddy Power are right to pay out on Crewe and Nantwich - it’s a clear Tory win.
But there are (as the laat thread mentions) still some interest. Can the Lib Dems come second? Well I talked to a Lib Dem MP (in Crewe) today and he put it as ‘unlikely, but possible’ - 12/1 sounds value on that basis. Particularly as I’ve had another request for help there tomorrow from the Director of Campaigns - it’s clear that the Lib Dems are fighting hard to the wire.
The question for Tories on this site is simple - if the Tory and Lib Dem postitions were reversed - what would be considered the likely outcome. I’d reckon a Lib Dem win by at least 10,000 - that’s surely the benchmark to judge their performance. I’d suspect a Tory lost deposit too - as Labour surely will find out in Henley.
The other interesting news is the e-mail to the Isle of Man today. Why were the Tories e-mailing an IoM radio station? Surely they also have more than 8,000 voting intention records in C&N?
Her. Does Ronaldo miss?
Me. No.
Her. He did then.
Similar comments about Anelka and Terry. Memo to self don’t look for job as football pundit.
Great game but what possessed Drogba to get himself sent off.
337 - Equally it gives the impetus for one team to just put 11 men behind the ball and defend. That never makes for a good game.
I am so gutted England are not playing in Euro 2008. McClaren needs burning at the stake- the footie equivalent of Gordilocks.
ITV are doing their best to rub our noses in it.
I must admit, I like the drama of a penalty shoot out. Its not a particularly fair way to end a match, but the drama of penaltys is pretty much unparalleled in any sport, I think.
The fact you always end up with an out and out loser, someone that flicnhes and cracks at that moment of absolute pressure, makes it all the more satisfying in a Gordon Brown bottling an election kind of way!
340 - They do that anyway.
338 - Not really because Labour will always find it harder to mobilise an anti-LibDem vote.
328 - Why do you call the Labour party fascist? Don’t you think that is disrespectful to the millions of people killed by actual fascistic regimes? You know, like the Nazis.
338 Of course there is no reason.
The only reason to make sense is if it werent a Conservative.
343 - Who does? Sides that a clearly inferior sometimes, for sure, but having penalties at the start would dramatically increase the chance of one of two evenly matched teams doing it.
Ha-ha-ha, nothing for Roman’s chequebook XI beaten in their own backyard.
Couldn’t ‘ave ‘appened to a nicer bloke.
345. Or the Iraqis.
314 - I don’t think you can persuade me to feel sorry for Roman Abramovich.
346 - Is your argument that it is not an issue because it wasn’t done on purpose? Don’t think you’ll hear the Tory leadership being stupid enough to use that line.
Of course in the grand scheme of things it’s not that important (and unlike with Labour can’t be tied into ID cards etc), but careless use of sensitive data is something that should concern anyone.
341. Particularly since there was practically a full England team playing tonight - just needed a goalie and Stevie G instead of Scholes. In 4-5-1 formation-
Goalie:
Cole(A);Terry;Ferdinand;Brown:
Cole(J);Lampard;Gerrard;Carrick;Hargreaves:
Rooney
337 - I hope you are joking? One team then knows a draw wins them the cup?
336. Agreed. I’ve never been a huge fan of Abramovitch’s Chelsea - they tend to be efficient and ruthless rather than deft and creative (whatever people say about Man U they ARE consistently fluent and entertaining).
However Chelsea showed real skill and passion tonight, which must make defeat all the more galling.
lol. Get yer plastic out Roman, and buy Messi.
345 keiran - when will you get the joke that Labour are hated and despised across the country? kepp banging the drum by all means but please dont think anyone is listening…. you are hated by the electorate!
349 - More anarchistic than fascisistic, I would think.
345. The Nazis weren’t fascist, they were Nazi. Hitler and Mussolini fell out over the differences between the two.
357 - They probably also fell out over the fact that the Italians were bloody hopeless at fighting a war.
357 - I thought they fell out because Italy wasn’t even capable of holding Abyssinia
In an ideal world you’d have a replay (although I have bad memories of the 1981 FA one) but that just isn’t going to happen these days so a penalty shootout is the next best thing. At least Clive Tyldesley will have another subject to talk about as well as Barcelona ‘99 now.
snap
345 The Labour Party are Fascists. Arrest for wearing a T-Shirt saying “Bollocks to Blair”?
Watch the video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j21rcnJ3EO8
Walter Wolfgang?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWsGZw4CVOY
Perhaps you are not familiar with Britain before Labour got in.
“note to all the lurking arsenal fans ———– not only are manchester united parading the real cup (not a blow up effort) they havent seen the need to strip off down to their pants and vests either”
Anyone think that Cameron would quite like a large majority so that he can voluntarily give half of it away?
356. I meant the millions of people killed by a fascistic regime - i.e. the Iraqis killed by New Labour. I was being satirical, and only semi-serious.
365 - I know
re 323 do you seriously imagine that anyone letting off a nuclear explosion before 1998 would have got away scot-free because there would have been nothing to charge him with? It is law making just for the point of law making, not for any practical purpose like most of new Labour’s output.
366. Ah… ok. Whoosh!
My excuse is that it’s 1.20am here in Tekirdag, on the Sea of Marmara.
358, 359. Well Hitler fell out with Mussolini over those things. Mussolini fell out with Hitler earlier when the Fuhrer informed him Italians were racially dirtied.
re 345 Kieran that’s rubbish
Fascism is a government, faction, movement, or political philosophy that raises nationalism, and frequently race, above the individual and is characterized by a centralized autocratic state governed by a dictatorial head, stringent organization of the economy and society, and aggressive repression of opposition
What a great game of football that was. I feel at peace. It’s funny how a really great game of footie leaves you with a satisfyingly tranquil, pleasantly empty feeling - the same feeling you get after a really fine piece of theatre, or a cracking and intelligent movie.
I guess it’s the same process. Aristotelian catharsis.
367 - You are aware that Treaties have to be enacted into UK law? The Nuclear Test Ban treaty was signed by the Conservatives. It’s provisions had to be enacted into UK law. Hence the Act.
It’s not about rogue nuclear terrorists running about letting off bombs in London. It’s about nuclear powers letting off bombs in the South Pacific.
369 Musillini had a Jewish mistress.
its
370 - So what’s that got to do with New Labour?
What’s wrong with putting voting intentions into the public domain anyway? Useful to the nation’s marketing men (companies need all the help they can get nowadays), and if you want your political views kept secret you shouldn’t give them out in the first place! Apparently some Labour scallywag I’d never heard of (Ed Militant or some such) has demanded that Dave apologize! So much for New Labour being the party of business.
375 You also dont know Britain before New Labour got in. If you did, you would see the difference.
Loss of freedom by salami cuts. Little sprinkles of Fascism, courtesy of Labour.
376 - Are these not canvassing returns? Don’t some canvassers assume political opinions which haven’t been expressed?
371 - Strangely I feel the opposite, a bit empty (and not in a cathartic way), great show, ending too rushed. I suppose that’s why I’ve never been a great football fan.
370. You got that off Wikipedia
that odious scum dunwoody exposed again on the itv news. what a horrid class warrior dinosaur
377 - lol. I oppose most of the authoritarian measures that Labour have implemented since 1997. What that’s got to do with wild rhetoric about comparisons with Mussolini or Hitler i don’t know.
381 - I can understand why she’s been stuffed in elections before, not exactly a likeable presence.
381 Dunwoody Kneafsy deserves to lose and lose well.
371. Or after eating a Burger King when you burp, takes away that initial full feeling leaving you feel content……….
382 A sheep in a field also doesnt know either.
Ignorance isnt a qualification.
381 - ‘odious scum’ - sounds a bit like ‘class war’ to me…
Fascism is a government, faction, movement, or political philosophy the new Labour identity that raises nationalism upsurge in nationalism since the botched devolution settlements, and frequently race “British jobs for British workers”, above the individual ID database entries for all and is characterized by a centralized autocratic state governed by a dictatorial head Labour could do what it liked with its majority, stringent organization of the economy and society, public services can’t event paper clip two papers together without form filling and target chasing and aggressive repression of opposition Crewe and Nantwich campaign
Will that do you?
You obviously didn’t pay close attention to the sheep during the BSE crisis in 2001.
371. Yes, the best sporting occasions are essentially drama’s in their own right. They have their own storylines, they have their own villains, they have their own twists, and the pressure can build and build until it reaches that stunning climax. And theres nothing better than a penalty shoot out for reaching that pinacle of true drama.
371, 379 that sounds like something else to me!
379. The perfect sporting endings are often provided by cricket, I think - the final over of the 20/20 or one day match. Snooker is good, too - the last black of the last frame. These aren’t contrived endings (which penalties are, I grant you).
That said, how else do you finish a tight footie cup match? And penalties are very compelling, and brilliantly theatrical, and they do test mettle and nerve, as well as the ultimate skills - scoring and saving.
Indeed (to unite the themes of this blog) I wonder if the Democrat party should introduce penalties into the Nomination system. If say, after thirty primaries, the two nominees are still within ten percent of each other, in delegates and/or popular votes, then they should have a penalty shoot out, to see who goes on to be presidential candidate.
It would have been fun this year for example. “And here’s Barack Obama, trotting up to the spot. He feints and jigs and he drills the ball left - but Hillary leaps like a puma across the six yard box, fists the ball clear, and we all move on to Indiana.”
388 - Are you arguing that the rise of the SNP is all a deliberate plot by New Labour to add to their fascist credentials?
371 Football bores the t1ts off me.
I dont mind playing - except with those mad amateur league chavs that break your leg for taking the ball off them - but watching bores my @rse off.
And what the **** is with snooker. How boring is that?!?
392 - Test cricket at its best too, the exquisite agony of the final day in the last home Ashes series for example. Sure you can get thumpings as in any game but, even when you have a close draw you know that both sides have been put through it.
The downer is rain affected draws, especially if you’re in the crowd.
394. Snooker is one of those things you either love or hate. I can sit and watch it for hours, but my girlfried hates it with a passion. The great thing about snooker is that it totally in the mind. Its about pressure and bottle and never. And theres nothing more fun than watching someone cracking under the pressure - Just as I think seeing Gordon Brown falling apart, has a morbid fascination.
The Information Commissioner is launching an investigation after the Conservatives accidentally sent details of 8,000 people to a radio station.
The e-mail sent contained the names, addresses, telephone numbers and intentions of voters in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7413826.stm
394. Snooker is one of those things you either love or hate. I can sit and watch it for hours, but my girlfried hates it with a passion. The great thing about snooker is that its totally in the mind. Its about pressure and bottle and nerve. And theres nothing more fun than watching someone cracking under the pressure - Just as I think seeing Gordon Brown falling apart, has a morbid fascination.
397. What a blunder! I assume this isn’t going to cause a last minute swing against the Tories?
385. That’s a beautiful image of contentment Yokel and has the additional power of authenticity.
397 Do you think that non-story is new to this thread?
400. Its the small things in life…..
392 - You have replays. I still remember the 1990/91 season Leeds played Arsenal in a fourth round tie that went to extra time in two replays before Arsenal won a THIRD replay 2-1. Utterly absorbing stuff in a tie that lasted about a month.
The argument that replays harm teams by making them play loads of games is shown as the nonsense it is by the fact that we finished that season (our first in the top flight for a decade) fourth and Arsenal won the title.
Sadly, that was probably the game that helped limit cup ties to one replay. But replays are infinitely superior to penalties. The fact that World Cups and European Cups are won on penalties leaves me cold.
397 Actually, the timing of the non-story is interesting - just before polling.
I guess the plants needed to send the email so the story could have an effect before it could be rubbished.
It wont make a difference to polling. It does however show the desperation of Labour and their detatchment from democracy.
I have found myself drawn to snooker more and more recently. I’ve found it destresses me. It’s like a kind of sporting yoga. The hush of the rowd, the Zen like click of the balls, the whispered commentary. Nicely soothing. Sends me off to bed very sweetly.
Which is where I am going now. A Thracian good night to all.
403. The trouble with a replay is that its another occasion, oin another day, with another crowd, and the mood and atmosphere might by completely differant. I don;t deny that from a sporting angle, the replay is probably fairer, but from a theatical angle, from the POV of drama and entertainment, the instant gratification of the penalty shoot out is far, far superior, IMO.
403 David, please take your football discussion to a football forum. I’d prefer the spam of Dirty Eurpoean Socialist to the inane droning of football.
404
What has this to do with the Labour party? Are you saying they sent it?
407. Yes thank god we don’t have inane droning on non-match nights.
403. But it’s a fact of life that the ‘genuine’ fans are heavily subsidised by the armchair TV audience who like to know that they are going to watch a game to its conclusion at one sitting.
410. I doubt that. The extra money from TV revenues have only pumped up players’ salaries.
re 409 it’s even the bleeding lead item on the midnight news - has nothing happened in the world today?
404. So instead of Tory incompetence, it’s Labour uber-competence ?
Doubt it, somehow.
407 - Blog fascist
Tories are evil, Cameron is spawn of Thatcher milk snatcher worst person ever etc etc.
Happy now?
I forgot how much money I put on the Tories to win C&N. Can you believe we nearly got evens when the odds were first posted? The bookies are going to be hammered.
4m20s on a football match - have BBC news taken leave of their senses?
404: ‘…I guess the plants needed to send the email…’
Good point Mr Horse; I didn’t think of that. Labour probably got some spy in a lowly clerical role at Tory HQ. When they couldn’t uncover anything embarrassing about the candidate they just tried this ploy as a last throw of the dice. Why was it emailed to a ‘random journalist’ anyway? Very odd.
397 Small point of order.
Such things don’t happen ‘accidentally’
Someone has been a complete m**********r and done this on purpose.
At the risk of sounding like a Brown Lab facist they need to be identified, dragged outside and given a major league shoeing,then tied to a tree for 20 minutes ‘Deliverence’ fashion and left to the delicate mercies of Alan Duncan and his mates and his Cameroonie mates.
Quite unforgivable whatever ones political allegiance.
A planted press mole ?
410 - Totally disagree. Tickets are not getting any cheaper. They have increased well above inflation for the past decade. In fact, I reckon football clubs have been even worse than private rail companies in that respect.
It’s like debating with a brick wall on here tonight. Clearly no-one bother’s to read anyone’s posts other than their own (or indeed their own under a differnt name).
But posters may be interested in some breaking C&N news - arrests have been made (and I gather they are very high profile and involve at least three Conservative MPs…)
With all the problems the Home Office has, the lack of funding in the prisons system and the refusal to give the police the extra 30 million they were awarded comes to mind. Also the fact that immigration is an extremely contentious issue for the government, what do you all make of this?
Home Office funds Sky ‘propaganda’ show with £400,000 of taxpayers’ money
“The Home Office is using £400,000 of taxpayers’ money to help pay for a fly-on-the-wall TV series promoting the work of immigration staff.
The cash will be spent on Sky’s eight-part show Border Force, which focuses on the UK Border Agency and its war on illegal immigrants.
immigration officer
Border Force: The Home Office is working with Sky on the fly-on-the-wall TV series
Opposition MPs last night lambasted the decision to dip into public funds to fund the series, saying it was nothing short of propaganda.
They accused the Government of misusing Home Office cash which would be better spent employing more border patrol staff.
Most viewers will not even be able to watch the programme as it will be shown on the subscriber channel Sky One rather than terrestrial TV.
The Government has signed a socalled “advertiser-funded” deal with Sky, which will see it meet the costs of developing and making the programme.
In return for its £400,000, the Government will receive valuable exposure for the work it is doing in policing Britain’s borders.”
Anyone know anything about this “advertiser-funded” deal, and if it effects the political impartiality?
The email story is a bit overblown as it was sent in error and the error spotted and the newspapers that got the stuff deleted it. The mystery is who sent the third email to another paper. But they too have embargoed it and promised not to publish, apparently.
So the error was silly and dangerous but prompt action was taken, the Tories have instigated an internal review and the Information Commission is rightly making an inquiry too.
What I don’t understand is why that comes before stories on the BBC website about police pay. An interesting comparison with the Sky site who have much more on the police and other political stories on their politics section.
Re 413, Alan J, “404. So instead of Tory incompetence, it’s Labour uber-competence ?
Doubt it, somehow.”
As with all data losses the reason why it happened is clear. Someone was allowed to take data off the system because “they were going to work on it”. Neat idea in principle. In practice it never happens on my watch. The data stays where it is.
419.Can you elaborate please?
I know that someone else posted a comment on the previous thread under my name.
419: ‘…arrests have been made (and I gather they are very high profile and involve at least three Conservative MPs…)’
Please remember this is a betting site, and punters can lose a great deal of money when contributors skewer the markets with bogus posts.
421 The central point is agreed there Witan.
The BBC needs a funding review. I hope, I fear forlornlyhat DC has the fortitude and bottle to deliver it.
I for one would salute and sing his praises for doing so from right field.
424:
Oops ’skew’ not ’skewer’.
424 - well at least someone’s bothering to read different posts.
Of course no-one has been arrested over the canvass data e-mail, but it does lead to certain questions:
1. Was Grant Schnapp’s e-mail used?
2. Why was data being e-mailed off-shore by the Tories?
3. Have the Tories only contacted 8,000 people at the by-election?
4. Why did people believe Martin Day’s bollocks about a defection at the weekend - given he spouts shite on this forum from when he comes home from school and his parents put him to bed?
So many unanswered questions that I fear no-one from the Tory side (just about everyone who posts here these days) will answer.
424.I think that poster should have checked with Mike before posting that?
Has SPIN removed completely (not just suspended) their Presidential market? Any idea what is going on?
Sorry if this has been discussed already.
On the arrests story..
I can believe that there may well have been arrests in Crewe and Nantwich. I can even believe that it involves MP’s, Conservative or otherwise. I would have a great deal of difficulty in believing that any MPs were actually arrested as they are not that daft.
419 - Nothing on the news, what is your information?
427.You really are prat, and if you can’t see it there is no point taking you seriously let alone debating with you!
427 - Ah, an untruth, just goes to show where rumours can originate.
428: ‘I think that poster should have checked with Mike before posting that?’
Why? It’s a statement of fact with which Mike would not disagree.
As for defections, I know nothing, but after a poor poll would be the right time, as the result and the reaction to it might be the tipping point.
431&433.ukpaul, apparently we were not paying him and the story of the Tory email mistake enough attention. So he decided to post a comment that would get everyone’s interest on a political betting site!
When does the media law come into effect? They can’t report anything about the by-election while the polls are open is that correct?
427 - Just to check I’ve understood this - no-one has been arrested, you just posted it to check people were reading your posts?
Also not sure why you say ‘of course’ no-one has been arrested. Data of this quantity and sensitivity sent outside of the European Union without due care would normally lead to arrests I think.
Ah Chris D - wakey wakey - you’re not Martin Day’s evening psuedonym are you? Perhaps you could look at my earlier post?
Anyway the Tories need to win C&N by at leat 10,000 to be in the game.
Question - if the Tory and Lib Dem share had been reversed in 2005 - what would have been the likely result and the expectations placed on the parties?
I’m confident that the Lib Dems would have had a five figure majority in those circumstances - the Tories should be too.
This ‘Taaking Liberties’ video is quite scary even, and wisely, ignoring the 1930’s stuff where a certain chancellor’s regime is regarded as the most repressive ever. Difficult to justify after seventy years of the Soviet repression with its Gulags, forced migrations and deliberate and sometimes incidental genocide.
Still, with it firmly in mind who the authors are and the part of the political spectrum they come from, it is still scary.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3351275215846218544
438. No it wouldnt. Absolutely no mens rea whatsoever, unless the person who did it was a plant, and then the blame lies with those who paid the plant.
439. Managing expectations are we? “Cameron needs to be at least 27 points ahead in the polls…” snore snore snore.
438 - No mens rea required for data security. The data exporter is held liable for any breach, irrespective of whether it is deliberate or accidental.
Anyway something true for people to consider.
Could the next general election be in June 2009?
http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/localgovernment/pdf/812363.pdf
Re 439, Dan “Anyway the Tories need to win C&N by at leat 10,000 to be in the game.”
Now that is spinning like a top!
434.Stark Dawning, did you miss the thread where a person/persons unknown posted false information while impersonating various regulars on this site, including Mike.
That is why I queried it.
443 - Strike that - actually struggling to find criminal penalties in the DPA. Is the recourse solely available through the civil courts?
I can’t wait until 2010 with these ever-moving expectations management. “The Conservatives are really not doing good enough, they should be getting at least 450 MPs …”
The data loss story seems to have disappeared from the BBC news website.
445 - not really Benedict.
I’m just thinking what would be the likely result would be if the Tory and Lib Dem scores had been reversed.
Bearing in mind Labour lost their deposits in Cheadle, Newbury and Winchester (where they got 1.7%) then there ought to be real potential for the Tories to crush both Lib Dems and Labour.
For what it’s worth I think they’ll do the latter but not the former.
Re 448, Philip “I can’t wait until 2010 with these ever-moving expectations management. “The Conservatives are really not doing good enough, they should be getting at least 450 MPs …””
I think you are setting a deliberately low target
Morus I have always understood the criminal penalties would be based on other offences: fraud, theft, blackmail, conspiracy and such types of thing. I could be out of date though.
Accidents are accidents despite all those silly TV ads about compensation claims after falling over your own lip.
As Bendict says, it is usually some smart arse who thinks they know better and then screw it up. I would be that is what happened with the millions of records at HMCR. There truly terrible thing is that the systems were so poor that some erk could first get hold of them all and then lose them all together.
Typing fat-finger attack so off to my pit.
445,Hiya,Benedict,hope you’re well.
Tomorrow,my ‘bell-wether’ will be if the swing is close to the 15.6% Con=Lab achieved on November 1st 1990-3 weeks before (for me i ways I am sorry for) that Mrs.T came to her end.
Would you agree the c.15% is a reasonable benchmark-BTW,I put my hands up as the first Labour-leaning poster to concede C+N :lol:)
446: ‘…did you miss the thread where a person/persons unknown posted false information while impersonating various regulars on this site, including Mike.’
That thread was before the London Mayoral election I believe. I was outraged by those fraudsters! In fact, a year ago some wretch by the name of ‘CJ’ was posting fictitious polling results on this site. Mercifully, the fool was banned almost immediately, but not before I - and others I expect - lost good money when our betting was influenced by his fairy tales. Such people should be shot!
Re 450, Dan “Bearing in mind Labour lost their deposits in Cheadle, Newbury and Winchester (where they got 1.7%) then there ought to be real potential for the Tories to crush both Lib Dems and Labour.
For what it’s worth I think they’ll do the latter but not the former.”
If you read the posts from people who have been watching by elections for years here you get the following message:
1. A Conservative win, even by one vote breaks a duck.
2. If the Conservatives achieve a swing of 15% then Labour are in trouble and set to lose the next election.
3. If the Conservatives get a swing of more than 20% Gordon Brown will be dragged out of number 10 by the men in grey suits and shot in the street.
For what it is worth, the polling indicates a Lib Dem squeeze more than a Labour one. That said the Liberal Democrats are very good at by elections.
It will be a toughy. Frankly I will be pleased with a win at all.
Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats seem to have gone out of their way to trash their local support base. It is so hard to tell who will come it what place.
455.Someone posted a comment on the last thread under my name, and when I saw Dan’s initial post and your reply about the fact that this is a betting site, I thought I should query its authenticity.
Re 454 Patrick “445,Hiya,Benedict,hope you’re well.”
Yes, and I hope you are as well!
“Tomorrow,my ‘bell-wether’ will be if the swing is close to the 15.6% Con=Lab achieved on November 1st 1990-3 weeks before (for me i ways I am sorry for) that Mrs.T came to her end.
Would you agree the c.15% is a reasonable benchmark-BTW,I put my hands up as the first Labour-leaning poster to concede C+N :lol:)”
Can I assume that was Eastbourne? Was that the swing there?
Only 15.6%?
Sheesh! If so, then anything above 10% is fantastic and over 15% indicates not only a change of government but PM immediately!
456 Hi,patrick again.We met on April 17th 2007-my mindsey then was ‘GB could win 2 elections and be PM as long as Tony Blair.
My mindset now? A lrage part hopes C=N is truky DEVESTATING-but as the 20% rule apples,unless GB falls on his owns word,blood aplenty could be let..
One caveat: 3 senior Labour politicans have died prematurely in the last 15 years,John Smith,aged 55 1/2 in May 1994,Donald Dewar in autumn 2000,just past his 63rd birthday,and Robin Cook,aged 59.
There are probably infinite ‘health reasons’ GB could jack on-not least that his youngest tragically has celebral palsy.
As a moderate,social democrat,I am more and more reconciling myself to David Cameron being ‘at least human’ once elected-that is the depth of my despair
458 Having (far more atletcally than a 37 year-old 5 ft 11 who weighs 15 stone,and drinks and smokes
) just checked reference,the Eastbourne swing was 20.) Con-Lih Dem when David Belotti won
456 - Yes: I agree with your points. I’m not sure if Gordon Brown would actually go on a 20%+ swing, but he’d find it difficult to recover.
Re 459, Patrick “We met on April 17th 2007-my mindsey then was ‘GB could win 2 elections and be PM as long as Tony Blair.”
Yes we did meet, and if I remember correctly I told you that you were talking b0llocks at the time
Just thought I’d slip in an “I told you so”.
Others in Labour have noted that they would like a massive and devastating defeat in order to be rid of Brown.
Personally I find this shocking. We never wished that on either Thatcher or IDS, we just woke up to reality and did the dead. We did not wish it on ourselves. Has Labour sunk to such despair?
457:
Fair enough! I suspect whatsisname’s remarks about ‘arrests’ was more crass than malicious, but you’re right: in these charged political times all responsible posters must stay on their toes and inform the site’s administration the moment we suspect dark forces to be at work.
Where is this 20% idea coming from?
The conservatives haven’t won a by-election for years, DECADES! The win is symoblic, and the measure of the win is just an afterthought.
Re 461, Tangent “456 - Yes: I agree with your points. I’m not sure if Gordon Brown would actually go on a 20%+ swing, but he’d find it difficult to recover.”
Many thanks. The thing is, how would he stay on?
I mean he does not have to go, and Labour can’t get rid of him in the short term, but what if the PLP decided to wield some kind of knife? The Liberal Democrats did it to Charles Kennedy by effectively all refusing to serve on their front bench. Could that happen?
Re 464, Jaz. “The conservatives haven’t won a by-election for years, DECADES! The win is symoblic, and the measure of the win is just an afterthought.”
Granted, but if it is on a 20% swing or greater than has a massive impact way beyond us breaking our 26 year duck.
I don’t get why the odds on Lib Dem coming 2nd are 12/1. It should be more like 3/2. It’s all about the distinction between tactical voting and double-tactical voting which I was talking about three weeks ago in the first place.
341. Which is the smallest place in England to be the name of a constituency?
It used to be Eye (1,500) but now (offhand) I would guess Ludlow.
221. the record LOW turnout for a by-election was Hillary Benn’s Leeds Central win in 1999 - where turnout was just 19%.
No it wasn’t. The record was 9% somewhere during the WW2.
Lowest Turnout record in a by-election: South Poplar, 12th August 1942, 9.3%
Highest turnout record: Ashton-under-Lyne, 29th October 1928, 89.1%
463.”Fair enough! I suspect whatsisname’s remarks about ‘arrests’ was more crass than malicious”
Yes I agree, but after the incident before Mayoral elections still fresh in my mind I thought it was sensible to try and check.
Personally I find this shocking. We never wished that on either Thatcher or IDS, we just woke up to reality and did the dead.
But there was plenty of this talk around Major - and with Thatcher and IDS, it took some time for discontent to come to a head, and it was a traumatic process. When it comes to unpopular leaders, there are always people prepared to talk the talk off the record, but very few with the cold, hard resolution to actually organise or tell the leader to his feace that he’s got to go (and, if they do, they’re likely to be set upon by Whips). The PLP as a body is probably the most likely assasin, but it’s difficult to see precisely how anti-Brownites could seize contol of the body unless ministers were prepared to openly support them, and resign if they fail.
468. It was Poplar South, 12th August 1942.
Turnout 9.3%
An air raid was in progress during polling day….
5 other seats during the War had turnouts less than 20%
Croydon, North 1940(19/6) 18.3
Hampstead 1941(27/11) 17.3
Middlesex, Acton 1943(14/12) 17.1
Camberwell, North 1944(30/3) 11.2
Middlesex, Harrow 1941(2/12) 10.7
Leeds Central (1999) is the only non-wartime by-election with a sub-20% turnout…
472.”An air raid was in progress during polling day….”
No wonder the turnout was so low, and a bit of rain can effect turnout nowadays….
473. That reminds me of the old joke
Q. What’s worse than raining cats and dogs?
A. Hailing taxis
What on earth is the point of a betting thingy paying out on bets before the event? Never mind any question about how “inevitable” something is, why do they do it? This isn’t the first time such a thing has been mentioned on here.
473. The Merseyside West European Parliament by-election 1996 had a turnout of just 11.3%…
Re 471, Tangent “But there was plenty of this talk around Major - and with Thatcher and IDS, it took some time for discontent to come to a head, and it was a traumatic process.”
You miss the point. The people in the party may have had ambitions, but actively wanted them to fail and badly? No!
476.Rod, I wonder what the weather was like, or did apathy win the day?
469 - Mid Ulster 1966 was 92% I think we discussed that earlier. Real turn out was probably 46% but everyone made sure their voice was heard by going round again.
Colin the daschund voted 20,000 times.
475 - Cheap publicity. It is brilliant marketing.
475.I agree, and I think its tempting fate too!
479.
468 Smallest town
I would guess Conwy. Perhaps Worsley in England
how cheap is it?
They’ve probably got a £50k payout at the most.
To lay that off, they are looking at about 1/25. So the cost is £2k.
To put that in perspective, they pay £20 for each new customer
http://www.quidco.com/paddy-power/
So 100 new customers would be good value for them.
Of course existing customers might decide to stick with them/bet more, as well.
Either way £2k for a 480-comment advert on a political betting website like this?
Bargain.
Any idea how much Messagespace charge for page impressions?
478. Apathy, ignorance, atavism no doubt all played their part…
It was also held less than a fortnight before Christmas 1996.
The deceased Labour Euro-MP had said in his victory speech in 1984..
“This is the second time in my life that I’m going to Europe; the first time was is 1944 with a sub machine-gun…”
477 - I certainly think that there were people in the Conservative Party who did actively want the 1997 landslide to Labour as part of the rebuilding process. That sort of mood was reflected at the time among people like Heffer, and among the more strident Portillistas and Redwoodites. To be fair, you could say that this mood only coalesced after the 1995 challenge, when it became clear that there would be no change - but there was certainly hope, before that, that poor results in the 1994 and 1995 round of elections would serve as a trigger.
Re 485, Tangent “477 - I certainly think that there were people in the Conservative Party who did actively want the 1997 landslide to Labour as part of the rebuilding process. That sort of mood was reflected at the time among people like Heffer, and among the more strident Portillistas and Redwoodites. To be fair, you could say that this mood only coalesced after the 1995 challenge, when it became clear that there would be no change - but there was certainly hope, before that, that poor results in the 1994 and 1995 round of elections would serve as a trigger.”
Ah, the cancers of Portillo and Heffer!
We are well rid of those malignant tumours now. And I am off to bed! Goodnight!
Jesse Ventura just announced he will probably be running for Senate as an independent in Minnesota.
482 John Looney
Might even be Sedgefield
485.”I certainly think that there were people in the Conservative Party who did actively want the 1997 landslide to Labour as part of the rebuilding process.”
I have always thought that many knew the party was heading for a bad defeat in a resigned way, but also, no one was prepared for the sheer scale of it. Not least Michael Portillo and all the other MP’s that lost their jobs and their political careers!
You don’t recover from that quickly, and we saw all the politicians with clear ambitions for the leadership fade away. In fact, who would have put any money on Hague and IDS being elected before Howard finally got the crown?
484.“This is the second time in my life that I’m going to Europe; the first time was is 1944 with a sub machine-gun…”
That reminds me of the fact that 25 years ago we still had MP’s from all parties who had fought in WW2. I wish some of them had still been around and held some influence in the last 10 years…..
Jim Webb
interviewed here : http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22996214#24765423
about the VP candidacy and those Scot Irish Americans who don’t vote yet for Obama…
490. Yes, it’s 20 years ago (January 1988) that Willie Whitelaw, MP, MC resigned from the cabinet (on health grounds), the last minister to see WW2 active service…
491. Very interesting his thought that if you had a coalition between Scots-Irish and African Americans you “could remake American politics”. There’s a lot of truth in that I think, and the interests of the two groups are very much aligned.
28 ukPaul
W Jefferson Clinton: Iraq - sanctions - 500,000 children under 5 years of age died of hunger and lack of drinking water.
Your opinion?
Malcolm
158 Philippe
That happened to me once at a council meeting - and I’m a pacifist!!
Malcolm
Barkston Ash (pop 316: 1991) must have been a former contender for the smallest town to have a constituency namd after it.
479: Sometime in the 1960s Liverpool council was obliged to hold a referendum for a Private Bill for extending Liverpool airport. I was a polling clerk at one voting station. from 8.00 am to 9.00 pm we had two voters. I think the total turnout over the city was about 5%. I can’t remember what the result was.
497 - Not a good decision. On the other hand, intervention in the Balkans was a good decision. If only Bush could boast such a success rate.