My General Election call: A Conservative majority
May 23rd, 2008
Why C&N gives me the confidence to come off the fence
In assessing the significance of the Crewe and Nantwich result for the next general election ask yourself this - when was the last time that the Tories took a seat off Labour in a by-election and then failed to win the subsequent general election?
The answer is Leyton in January 1965 which was held in the unique circumstances of a vacancy being created to provide a Commons seat for Labour’s Foreign Secretary who had lost his seat only three months earlier in the general election.
Leyton aside the record in modern times shows that Tory by election successes on the scale of Crewe and Nantwich have ALWAYS been followed by general election victories.
I know Labour chalked up four gains from the Tories in the 1987-1992 parliament and then lost. But, just like with the opinion polls, the party needs to be demonstrating much more emphatically than the Tories that it is on top before you can safely predict that it is going to take power.
The Conservative victories in 1970 and 1979 were both preceded by significant by election triumphs. Before C&N the last Tory gain from Labour was at Ilford North in 1978 when there was a swing of just 6.9%. Just compare that with the latest result of a 17.6% swing which, as Rod Crosby pointed out overnight was exactly the same as the 1977 Tory victory in Birmingham Stechford.
Unlike many pundits who like to qualify their forecasts, gamblers have to come to a firm view about how they risk their money. So unless there is a dramatic change in the political environment, such as a might just happen with a different Labour leader, I cannot see any other result than a Conservative overall majority - and this is how I am betting.
The C&N result was also further vindication of the “Golden Polling Rule” - that the most accurate survey is the one that shows Labour in the least favourable position. It has happened in the every single London mayoral race, at every general election of recent times and now at Crewe & Nantwich.
There were three by election surveys - ICM had Tory leads of 4% and 8% while the last, Comres has a 13% lead. The actual margin was 19%.
Mike Smithson
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Two years is a long time in politics. We never quite know what will happen; it is too early to tell. By-elections don’t happen often enough in the right sort of constituencies to be a reliable guide as if it’s some sort of iron law of inevitability.
I think its becoming very unlikely that the Labour Party can hold off an election for two years. Its sort of like when you put the pot on to make tea and its about to reach a boiling point when the noise is just to great to ignore.
re 1. On that basis John you would never bet on anything.
It all depends on how limpet-like Brown is over the next few months Mike. In the unlikely event that he can be shifted this year then Labour could still turn it around.
Granted I think thats not going to happen as Brown’s greatest skill is in the inner workings of his own party but who would have thought Maggie could be removed at the start of 1990.
Stranger things have happened, especially to politicians looking at the oncoming train-wreck….
Any news of Boris’ Henley? Any by-election to come in June? Or will it be July?
- “… I cannot see any other result than a Conservative overall majority…”
I totally agree with both your analysis, and with your conclusion Mike.
I believe that everyone, from all political parties, now has to start strategic planning based on a comfortable working Conservative majority after the next UK GE.
This changes planning for everybody, but mostly I would argue for the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party, both of which have been praying for a hung parliament. Now we need to sit up and smell the coffee: there is not going to be a hung parliament. Now, is that clear enough?
PS. Ignore Mike’s “Golden Polling Rule” at your peril. He is spot on.
PSS. There will be no “swingback” to the Labour government. “Swingbacks” only happen with Conservative governments.
Seems to be another more recent Golden Rule - take the worst case that Labour Spin Doctors give in their expectation management and the result will be worse.
Labour voters chose to go straight across to the Conservatives in big numbers in Crewe - I agree with Mike that this makes an outright Tory win in 2010 the most likely outcome. I just can’t see what will make voters choose another 5 years of Brown or more importantly of this tired Government.
The political spread-betting markets agree with you Mike. Latest Spreadfair prices (seats at UK GE 2005):
Con 345.5 - 355.0 (198 seats)
Lab 228.1 - 234.5 (356 seats)
LD 45.0 - 46.9 (62 seats)
SNP 8.8 - 10.9 (6 seats)
PC 3.0 - 3.5 (3 seats)
(NI 18 seats)
http://www.spreadfair.com/
The next House of Commons = 650 seats (+4 seats). Therefore 326 seats are needed to form a majority government. So the political betting community is predicting a workable Tory majority of approximately 25 seats. Probably a bit on the low side?
We are currently looking at approximately 125 net seat losses for Labour. On the last occasion that a UK government was kicked out of office, at the 1997 general election, John Major lost 171 seats. If the Labour Party keeps Gordon Brown as leader I expect their net seat losses will be nearer Major’s 171 than the current 125 level.
Mike is spot on I think - money to be made!
My only caveat is the scenario that Labour have the guts to remove Brown. If they do then it’s possible things could swing back a little, but it might make it worse (as it would be messy) and to be honest I think the writing’s on the wall.
The next Gov’t will be Conservative. The only question is how big there majority will be.
Rejoice, rejoice!!
Jon Pienaar on Radio 5 just now: “This defeat outstrips Labour’s worst expectations by a long, long way……No wonder David Cameron is beaming and lighting up Crewe with his smile……”
and: “….most voters in the country are saying that Labour would be better off without Gordon Brown……He must have a sweaty botty at the moment…”
The knives will be out with a vengeance for Brown this weekend but will they succeed in dumping him?
The future is Bright, the future is Blue?
Brown derailed at Crewe. Crewe’s missile hits Downing Street. Danger signalled for Labour.
If Brown is taking the right decisions, for the right reasons, how does he explain why so many votes swung against Labour in this by-election. Hard to see how Labour can recover from this. Almost a majority of votes cast for the Tory - highly unusual in any form of election in the UK.
Labour’s candidate choice might have worked in a rotten borough, pre 1832. ‘Other than Mummy, Daddy and Granddad being Labour MPs, what qualities do you bring to Nantwhich, Ms Dunwoody?’
Looks as if the voters weren’t convinced that Labour was selecting on merit. It may make the Tories think twice about a candidate with a family connection at Henley.
What ought to worry Labour MPs is the state of the public finances at this stage of the economic cycle, Brown has got it wrong economically, and is destroying their political futures.
I understand the attraction of doing a Bob Wooster but it is no more a certainty than that Man City will avoid the drop in two years time.
A good result for the Tories last night. Labour are in trouble and the blame seems to centre on the 10p tax for which Gordon has no alibis. A more interesting thread might have asked whether Gordon is likely to survive rather than this Mystic Meg stuff.
Labour need to start spending money on a decent advertisers and quickly. The ‘toff campaign’ was so badly handled that had it been devised and run by an agency the whole team responsible would be looking for a new job by now.
12 - Roger, you have no money to spend on advertisers. You have few councillors and a membership in desperate decline.
I don’t think Mike is Mystic Meg, he can just read and do sums.
8. Caveat: “Therefore 326 seats are needed to form a majority government.”
I should of course have noted that all elected Sinn Féin MPs will be abstaining again, therefore reducing the de facto size of the next HoC to approx 643 seats. Therefore, in order to form a majority government the Conservatives only need approx 322 seats, not 326.
11 Exactly. With massive, crippling levels of private and public debt, rising price inflation, and a deteriorating economy there’s trouble ahead for which Brown will take a (justifiably) large share of the blame.
12 Spend money on advertising??! Your pals in government have already spent billions promoting themselves and employ an army of spinners, all on the public purse. How much more of our money do you think this useless, odious bunch should spend on lying to us?
Face it, Brown and Labour are a busted flush. You are on notice from the voters that you are heading for the sack at the first opportunity.
BBC Website ‘Tories snatch Crewe from Labour.’
By implication stealing votes, something rightfully Labour’s. At the moment greater prominence given to the ‘bomber’ in Exeter - bigger picture, bigger tex, top centre. Am a little surprised by the webpage layout for UK news.
But am still waiting for Ave It 08’s take.
Bloggers haven’t woken up -
Con Home says
Thursday 22nd May 2008
We expect a “substantial” Conservative majority
buck up chaps - shake a leg, eh?
David Miliband calls Jack Straw “pathetic”:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7416003.stm
has the leadership contest started in earnest?
Try to keep up,Roger,we had a Gordon Brown thread at this time yesterday.
The markets on Betfair are normally totally unflappable.I have spent the last month going huge RED on a Labour overall and sleep very well at nights.
My ‘pet’ has been NOM .They say that some traders would rather divorce their wives than unwind a potentially bad trade so I am still very GREEN on a NO OVERALL which I have always hitherto regarded as value.
NOM 3.6
LAB 7.0
CON 1.75
OTH 160
Here the question is posed in its sharpest form.You can Lay all these prices and thereby by ommitting one of them,be on the option of choice.
Is 1.75 value for a CON Overall ? It certainly looks that way this morning but you have to Lay 3.6 and 7.0 to get it.
***** IT’S THUMBS UP ARSE AT CREWE AND NANTWICH *****
JNN PRESS RELEASE EMBARGO 23/05/08 0630hrs
Celebrating alongside the Conservatives last night in Crewe and Nantwich were ARSE the pollster who in a head to head with rivals ICM and ComRes utterly crushed them with a stunningly accurate prediction that sent shock waves through the polling community.
Founder and Chief Executive of ARSE Jack W said :
“Modesty forbids me to reflect that overnight ARSE has become the greatest polling outfit in the history of mankind. However if in some small way my ARSE can make a contribution to the reversal of global warming, starvation on the planet and the relegation of Watford FC to the Rymans League Division Two, then so be it.”
“We at ARSE feel the hand of history on our shoulders and will walk tall with heads held high as the finger of destiny gives us a thumbs up.”
Note - Actual Result/ARSE Poll - Released 22/05/08 16.15hrs
Cons .. 49.5%/49% .. Lab 30.5%/29% .. LibDem 14.5%/16% .. Others 5.5%/6%
A few selected headlines from the on-line purveyors of this morning’s news :
The Telegraph : Rampant Tories crush Labour in by-election
The Times: Disaster for Brown after Tory landslide
The Mail : Tories win Crewe by a landslide leaving Brown in desperate fight for survival
The Guardian: Brown facing meltdown as Labour crash in Crewe
And last, but not least (and you have to smile, really) :
The BBC : Tories snatch Crewe from Labour
Phew - we just made it, then!
12 Roger, it’s not a matter of presentation though that has a part. Great advertising and skilled PR can boost initial sales but once public realises its a duff product then the game is up. We had the product re-launch last July with new packaging and a re-brand, good strapline (Not flash just Gordon), great initial public response, good sales figures. The consumers realised the product still wasn’t any good last Autumn and the brand re-launches since then have had less and less effect.
Some in the agency team are now considering whether another re-brand is in order with a shiny new leader and another launch (perhaps copying the market leader and getting their own Dave on the packet) - the product though is worn out, market has changed and it needs re-constituting not just a branding change.
Its not Gordon that’s the problem, it’s the Government, tired, no new ideas, increasingly fractious.
12. There’s not much point spending money on advertising if the product is dodgy, and that means Brown. The only question is when there will be a challenge. I spoke to a widely respected NEC member the other day who reckons that he has to go.
Up to the PLP now.
Michael Settle interviews David Cameron for The Herald. It is full of juicy quotes, but here are some of the tastier bits, including referring to Alex Salmond as a brilliant politician and a great communicator:
“He sees, on the back of the Wendyrendum fiasco, a golden opportunity for the Scottish Conservatives to be the main beneficiaries from the Unionist vote by portraying themselves as the “straightforward party of the Union”… Gordon Brown, he argues, is “playing games with the Union” by risking a referendum at a time of his deepest unpopularity. “There’s a really big opportunity because Labour have completely screwed up on the Union with Bendy Wendy all over the place,” he declares.
But the cosying up of Ms Goldie with Scotland’s First Minister is unsettling some Tories as they understand how Alex Salmond believes a Conservative Government in London will be a godsend to his goal of Scottish independence.
The Conservative leader believes the SNP leader is on a “long-term lose situation” because “for all his brilliance as a politician, great manoeuverer, great communicator, at the end of the day, Alex Salmond is someone who wants to break apart the United Kingdom and the majority of Scottish people do not want that”.
“Some people say we’re mad: you’ve a much better chance of being the Prime Minister of England. Well, I don’t want to be the Prime Minister of England, I want to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.”
… “If we replace the Barnett Formula with a needs-based formula, Scotland has very great needs and Scotland will get very great resources.” Pressed about the formula’s future, he insists: “This cannot last forever, the time is approaching.” Asked if, therefore, he feels the formula is coming to the end of the road, Mr Cameron replies: “Yes, that’s right,”… “
So: bye bye Barnett Formula!! Yet another SNP policy implementation.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2291803.0.Weve_lost_so_many_elections_we_have_to_deserve_to_win_every_vote.php
‘Cameron: Barnett formula’s days are numbered’:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2291777.0.Cameron_Barnett_formulas_days_are_numbered.php
The Herald leader: ‘Part of the Union’:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/editorial/display.var.2291778.0.Part_of_the_Union.php
22. No, it is clearly Gordon that is the problem. There is nothing about a Labour govt that intrinsically puts people off, as was shown by Gordon’s initial honeymoon in the polls.
Actually the person I feel a bit sorry for at the moment is Peter Hain. At a moment like this he would have been quick to jump in but alas, he’s blown it.
16 btw Stuart the spread markets with 350 mid would forecast a Tory majority of 50 not 25. They are actually lower than the high yeterday which was 359.5 - 69 majority.
25 the Labour Government was unpopular before Gordon (remember the 2007 local elections), it was unpopular even in winning a majority of seats in 2005 (36% of vote in Great Britain). The difference today is that Cameron and team have been able to make the Conservatives recipients of the votes looking for an alternative. Gordon might have made it worse faster but the tide turned about four years ago.
Reitereate my congratulations to the Coservatives on a good victory last night .
On the thread topic , since the 2nd World War there have been 4 occassions when a Labour government lost byelections to the Conservatives on 2 1945-50 and 1964-66 Labour retained power on 2 1966-70 and 1974-79 they lost power though it is arguable whether they would have done so in Autumn 1978 .
The key to the next election is the economy and not whether the Conservatives won the Crewe byelection .
‘Holyrood trust rating jumps 20 points since election’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2291723.0.Holyrood_trust_rating_jumps_20_points_since_election.php
‘Trust in Holyrood soars by 20%, says poll’
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Trust-in-Holyrood–soars.4113937.jp
27. Jon
Whoops! Ta for that Jon. How embarassing. Next I will be screwing up some ’swing’ sums…
On the Party Leaders mkt. things are eerily quiet.Both Brown/Cameron and Cameron Only can be backed at odds against but just for pennies.Cameron Only is marginal favourite on the balance of betting since yesterday morning.
I woke up half expecting to see my Brown/Cameron matched but it nowhere near was.Don’t expect GB to be departing any time soon.
Good morning,Jon.Have you moved to 45.0 ?
25 - That doesn’t necessarily follow. The initial honeymoon was a verdict on Brown, not the Labour Party.
Actually you’re right that it’s nothing to do with the Labour Party. It’s the economy. ‘Twas ever thus.
People will always vote Labour as long as they want money spent on things, and think there is money to be spent. They like having their pleasant town centres, well kept public gardens, and shiny buildings. But once the Electorate decides they are just taking too many liberties they revert to the Conservatives.
The BBC think the Conservatives are already in Government - Robinson’s diary entry on C&N and comparative swings:
“The Tories will say that this is the biggest swing from Labour to the Tories in more than 30 years……..The opposition parties wll, on the other hand, point out that they’ve had much bigger swings in by-elections…”
Labour as one of the opposition parties, not yet but not to long to go.
On anything like the Crewe & Nantwich result (or rather what that portends for the average of byelections between now and the next GE) their is clearly strong potential for a Conservative majority in the not-so-distant future.
Perhaps the real question is: how big?
Personally think that somewhere under 50 may be the most likely answer. And that this might actually be better than a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party; clearly it’s prefereable from Labour’s view than a Conservative landslide.
My reasoning is that a small Tory majority would give Labour a decent chance of coming back to power, after a period of rejuvenation & renewal (but not enough R&R to tilt it too far back to the left) following the next general election.
Whereas a Tory minority government might well be followed by a Tory majoriy government, and if that was the trend, why not a medium sized one. Which would delay Labour’s return to power for at least another cycle.
28. Clearly there were Labour/Conservative switchers in C&N and the post-mortem in the next few days should show why so many Labour voters were p*ssed off enough with Labour to do this. Whether Cameron and the Cons, outside of a byelection, really represent “the alternative” is another matter. They need to come up with some policies first. Cameron’s recent pronouncement that you can cut taxes and improve public services at the same time was not a very impressive start.
32 yes - still no joy. I thought I would be in with a chance after what I thought was a slightly poor result for us in Crewe. I guess Tories have done their sums and decided we aren’t going to lose 20 seats to them after all.
25 — Gordon Brown is not the problem. Well, he is in the sense that his series of too-clever-by-half stunts like the 10p abolition, Iraq trip, and election hype destroyed the post-Blair honeymoon, but that has gone now.
The problem now is the economic and social double double whammy hitting Labour supporters. A shiny new leader will not help Labour simply by smiling more: ask the LibDems!
There is room for Labour to act to ameliorate conditions for the public. Unfortunately, its recent not-the-Queen’s-speech shows that, like many on here, the government thinks not enough spin is the problem.
28. Ted - “The Labour Government was… unpopular even in winning a majority of seats in 2005 (36% of vote in Great Britain).”
And Blair ‘won’ with only 35.3% of the vote in the UK (ie. including NI), on a turnout of just 61%. So, under FPTP, Labour ‘won’ a solid majority with the votes of approximately 22% of the electorate. And some politicos wonder why the general populace are disillusioned with politics? Ho hum…
29 - Mark, I don’t think Labour lost any seats to the Conservatives in the 1945-50 or 1950-51 Parliaments.
morning btw
38. the Queen’s speech is written by the leader
Jack. If the figures you quote from your ARSE are real then congratulations! It’s finally come good and blown some much bigger ones out of the water!
Ted. I was specifically referring to the campaign in C+N. A very difficult concept which needed subtle handling. I’ve been hearing all morning on radio about the disastrous ‘toff campaign’. This alone is a disaster and might well have screwed up a reasonable approach for the future. It needed wit and subtlety not size 14’s!
I agree a re-relaunch is a waste of time. A totally new approach is needed. A new leader would be a start but whether Labour will have the voter appeal without it’s twin pillars of Blair and Brown is doubtful. A Miliband brimming with new thinking is possibly their only and best chance
chris bryant was the government’s spokesman last night…since they couldn’t find ANY even vaguely senior person to defend Labour could the BBC not have got Quentin Davies it would have made a much improved broadcast perfect.
41.You fully deserve to be matched,Jon.The rump of my 46.9 is still dangling there and I will meet you half way at 45.9 if you like.
My take is that any strength for the Tories is bad news for the Lib Dems.I think you are hoping/expecting they can do damage to NuLab.
I think the latter have to drop the ‘Nu’ and go into the next election as ‘Labour’, thereby plucking out the core vote.
37. Jon - “I guess Tories have done their sums and decided we aren’t going to lose 20 seats to them after all.”
It is not only the Tories that the Lib Dems are going to lose seats to. A few are also likely to go to the SNP and Plaid Cymru, and I even expect Labour will make their only GE gain in the entire UK at the expense of the Lib Dems: Dunfermline & West Fife.
42 Agreed - but it’s put together with involvement from the Cabinet putting in their ideas for new policies by department. What would a different leader offer other than a temporary bounce? The Party is broke and dependent (again) on public sector union funding so a new Leader’s room for manoeuvre is limited. Public spending is tight, personal budgets even tighter for most.
Labour MPs should be taking Michael Brown’s advice in the Independent and checking their pension contributions, downgrading their cars and other expenses and starting to work at developing employment opportunities for their forthcoming career changes.
42 — yes, I know that. Everyone knows that. By “not-the-Queen’s-speech” I meant this month’s policy pre-announcments of the sort that would normally be made in the Queen’s speech.
Panorama this week was about government plans to get people off benefit. All very laudable perhaps but even if 100 per cent successful, without economic expansion it will simply exchange one set of unemployed people for another. Meanwhile, a lot of Labour voters will have been harrassed into abandoning support for the government.
Same with schools and health.
It’s about the issues, not personalities.
46 I think that wouldn’t technically count as a gain, though I fancy us strongly to keep it since the context of the election will probably be bash Labour and we are obviously in pole position to do that.
Having said that the Scottish LibDems have made very similar errors to the national party - they seemingly forgot they were democrats too.
43. Roger - “I agree a re-relaunch is a waste of time. A totally new approach is needed.”
Socialism?
McBean will be developing a twitch soon.
He’s not the only problem but he’s going to cost 20 extra lost seats on his own at this rate.
Nice to see Tim Farron accept that this was “quite a good result” for the Conservatives. When you put the figures into the predictors the Conservatives get “quite a good result” in Westomrland, 8,000 majority.
The lack of Lib Dem ramp is the real story of the night. They actually fell in votes, ?18%? to 14%. I would have expected them to have held their vote and taken another 3k. What ever the Tory capaign did to innoculate the electorate against the Lib Dem infection needs bottling. We will need it in Henley !
43. Roger
Here is Scottish Labour’s ‘new approach’:
‘Wendy Alexander re-launches Labour leadership’ (including video)
http://www.stv.tv/content/news/headlines/display.html?id=opencms:/news/Alexander_brands_SNP_right_wing_20080329
‘Wendy Alexander sees a socialist future’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article3647490.ece
‘Labour leader Wendy Alexander fights back with a big Left hook’
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/03/30/labour-leader-wendy-alexander-fights-back-with-a-big-left-hook-78057-20366773/
Morning all! It’s going to be an interesting couple of weeks! Hope that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger turns out to be true. Labour have surely learnt alot during this campaign.
48. “It’s about the issues, not personalities” - you obviously don’t go out canvassing, then
BTW Mr Montgomerie still hasn’t woken up. It’s amazing how pb.com manages to provide a 24 hour service. How much sleep do you guys get?
54 For Example, the Toff campaign has been clearly discredited. It’s a huge benefit to Labour that we didn’t go into a GE with that strategy!
I am desperately trying to get a bet on that included in Gord’s comments about the by election will be his catchphrase “There are lessons to be learned”
55
The man was up till 3am.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/05/crewes-control.html
56. I like your determined optimism Jonathan. You sound like our mad constituency secretary who was sending cheer-up-folks-it’s-not-so-bad emails at 6 a.m. this morning.
Jonathan @ 54: “Labour have surely learnt a lot during this campaign.”
Learnt what exactly? That toff attacks don’t work? Well, why didn’t they learn that from Ken-vs-Boris? Or even from earlier attacks on Cameron?
There was a time when Labour apparatchiks would know about Marx, who noted that toff attacks are repeated first as tragedy, then as farce.
55 — yes, Brown is unpopular. No-one disputes that. But Labour’s problems are far deeper than that. So, more importantly, are voters’ problems.
44 - probably not many watched it but the one who was really terrible was Liam Byrne interviewed by Gavin Esler on Newsnight. He just kept grinning broadly and talked absolute garbage. And he’s supposed to be Cabinet mterial!
Re. 13, quite, we’ve come very close to being declared bankrupt.
JohnL @ 60.
I think the toff attack did work for Livingstone to a certain extent and that is why it was repeated at C&N.
Arguably KL obtained the best result of any Labour politician on the night.
59,60 Optimism perhaps. But first, just a determination to make sure that Labour recognises that certain ideas have been tranparently shown to be totally and utterly wrong in the past month of elections.
Learning One: Toff campaigning is political history. It is discredited, it’s sponsors need to concede that and move on or get out of the way.
it’s = its
Last telegram from the bunker here, from a blog of someone called Mike Ion (http://mike-ion.blogspot.com/):
“So where do we go from here?
As predicted we have taken a severe kicking in Crewe, not just because of the ‘toff’ campaign attacks, not just because of the 10p tax fiasco and certainly not because the Tories and Cameron connect with voters but because the electorate was determined to give us a bloody nose. From the doorstep it was obvious that people were and are angry with us, disillusioned with our increasingly reactionary rhetoric and keen to send us and particularly Gordon Brown, a message.
As no doubt a plethora of posts and comments that will appear throughout the Labour blogosphere over the next day or so will indicate, the real challenge to the continuation of the pursuit of a progressive political agenda comes not from a resurgent Tory party but from the defeatists, pessimists and cynics that exist within our own movement. If Labour is to secure an unprecedented fourth term then it must urgently set about renewing itself, its message and its organisation.
I am not ashamed to be in the Labour party and I am proud of what we have achieved since 1997 but I am also acutely aware that we cannot constantly keep talking about these achievement. Looking to the past has much to recommend it, living in the past nothing at all.”
we cannot constantly keep talking about these achievements
The fact that they all seem (rightly or wrongly) hollow in the face of rising taxes, rising prices and growing pessimism is precisely why these “achievements” did not make the base of the campaign.
Not that Toff bashing did any better but….
36 ermintrude of course of can be done, see Wandsworth council. Boris in London will demonstrate it.
Can I just pause to congratulate JackW? The ARSE done good, so it did.
ALL PRAISE THE ARSE. THE ARSE IS THE NEW ARBITER OF TRUTH. EMBRACE THE ARSE. THE ARSE IS YOUR GOD NOW.
etc.
67. Mike is a self-appointed cheerleader type. This sort of cliched stuff is fairly typical. If you want to read more of it and send yourself to sleep, go to the “Progress” blog.
Bleary eyed this morning, still can’t quite believe the scale of it last night.
I really don’t think there is much Labour can do this side of an election, I do believe a new page has been turned in the political story.
The public have worked out that there is no substance behind Nulab, and there never has been - it’s sole purpose was simply to win elections; not run the country.
Jonathon. The ‘toff campaign’ didn’t work because it was mishandled and ended up looking crass and oafish. The public don’t mind toffs for being toffs but when for example Cameron is seen to use a chauffeur to carry his shirt and shoes then it’s a different story. I hope the idiots in C+N haven’t lost this weapon for Labour.
- “… in the first quarter of this year… according to figures released by the Electoral Commission… Labour received £2.8m, mostly from trade union donations…”
http://tinyurl.com/4tzrzo
“If you do not want your union money to go to the Labour Party then create an email to your union using the form below. Fill in your name, address and the date and send it. Your union will then stop giving your money to the Labour party.”
POLITICAL FUND (EXEMPTION NOTICE)
Name:
Address:
Date:
I give notice that I object to contributing to the Labour Party through the Political Fund of the Union, and am in consequence exempt, in the manner provided for by Chapter VI of Part 1 of the Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act 1992, from contributing to any political fund that donates to the Labour party.
http://tinyurl.com/4o67rs
Can we make Roger Labour’s general election strategist?
You know that the car *also* carries Dave’s red boxes, of which he gets a full set every day, don’t you? Yes. I imagine you did.
Seems to me that Gordon Brown is in a very similar pickle to that of Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin a few years ago.
Before becoming Prime Minister in the UK, GB served through two Labour administrations as Chancellor under Tony Blair.
Ditto in Canada, where before becoming PM, Martin was Finance Minister in two Liberal administrations under Jean Cretien.
Note that the emnity between Blair & Brown and their attendent entourages, was matched with at least equal viturpitation by the radioactive chemistry of the Cretien-Martin relationship.
What happened in Canada was, when Paul Martin finally finished prying his predecessor’s grip from the levers of power in Ottawa, he pretty much had to call an election. Which resulted in the Grits loosing their majority, but emerging as the largest party in the hung parliament. And winning the support of key independents, including one former Conservative independent (similar to the ex-Labour MP from south Wales).
Difference here was that the third parties & independenets in Canada - in particular the NDP and Bloc Quebecoise - proportionately elected more MPs in their counterparts in the UK, in large measure to the BQ’s dominenace of federal seats in La Belle Province.
Martin’s “win” turned out to be a pyhrric victory, because at the next election the tables turned. First, because the Liberal govt going back to Chretien days was implicated in scandal, in particular the use of federal funds theoretically targeted to promote “federalism” in Quebec were actually targeted into the pockets of well-connected Liberals in Montreal, Quebec City and most especially Shawinigan the home of Jean Cretien. The “Sponsorship Scandal” naturally drove the taxpayers & voters in English Canada nuts and drove them to the Tories. It also pissed off the Quebeckers, because it made them the whole province look like a bunch of crooks (a popular Anglo stereotype).
But perhaps the desive factor was the sencond reason for Tory success, which was the fact that Conservative leader Stephen Harper proved to be a quick learner. In particular, he drew the right conclusions from his first defeat by Martin, and implemented them: a) toned down his rightwing rhetoric; b) enforced disipline on the wackos in the Tory caucus; and c) differentiated himself from George Bush as opposed to the previous bonehead policy of embracing him as a fellow conservative.
And it worked. The Tories emerged as the largest party, and Harper formed a minority government. Which yet survives, because the opposition - in particular the Liberals, who are engaged in a leardership crisis of their own under Martin’s successor as federal leader, Stephane Dion.
Bottom line - the flaws and follies of the over-ripe Canadian Liberal government finally caught up with it when two things happened:
1) the illusion of compentent (albeit boring) government was shattered by scandal/crisis; and
2) the opposition created at least the illusion that it had reformed & repented of past sins under new leasership, thus passing the sniff test by ceasing to be a perceived threat to the public weal.
Think the Canadian experience is relavant to the UK, because the Canuck political system is thoroughly British with little Westminsters not just in Ottawa but in all of the provincial and even territorial capitals. Which matches in many respects the emerging regionalism within the United Kingdom.
The British - the strong majority anyway - have historically prided themselves on their national unity. Which was localized and traditional enough to permit such quaint observances as the Queen being an Anglican in Sandringham but a Presbyterian up in Balmoral. But in true essence highly centralized from the locus of London.
Whereas by contrast Canada has always appeared to be a country on the verge of falling apart. Not just the Two Solitudes of English Speaking v. Francophone, but the Atlantic v Ontario v the Prairies v Alberta v BC, with Newfoundland v. Everybody including Nunuvit.
Yet the Canucks have always managed to hold it together. Sometimes with inspired or at least inspiring leadership (Macdonald, Laurier), sometimes despite it (Diefenbaker, Trudeau). And sometimes with bland & pedestrian leaderhip (King, Pearson, maybe St Laurent & Cretien on a general day) that in retrospect looks pretty good, leastways to running the more dangerous rocks & rapids of Canadian politics and national destiny.
John MsDonnell MP has it spot on.
I think a double substitution is called for ie replace both the PM and Deputy PM.
Harriet Harperson spoke utter claptrap on Sky News this morning.
“Things are just going from bad to worse for the government,” John McDonnell, a Labour lawmaker who challenged Brown for the leadership of the party last year, said in an e- mail. “The lesson tonight for the Labour Party is that it is change or bust.”
Looks like “bust ” to me
73 I agree with all that you’ve said. But more fundamentally people said “Yes, I agree they’re toffs. So what!”. The Cameron thing is different, it demonstrates hypocrisy. Quite a different issue IMO.
BTW like the spirit of the post quoted in 67. Need a punchier vocab in my opinion.
73. Roger, if you think people will change their vote on the basis of Cameron having a car to transfer his red boxes, then your lot are in even greater trouble than you’re in at the moment.
OMG!
Nick Robinson referring to Tractor Plans on Radio 4!
He seems to think that Tractors Brown is doomed.
45 well somebody just gave me 2 “From little acorns mighty oak trees grow” and all that…
Regarding the Henley by-election, I have only just noticed this (courtesy of Mi-Lord Rennard’s excuse e-mail he sent me this morning) but the Lib Dem candidate for Henley is one Stephen Kearney.
He is not “local”. Will the Lib Dems make much of an issue of being “local” this time? I wouldn’t run on a book on it!
Harman in full-on bunker mode foul harpie on the Today programme.
She “doesn’t think the Labour campaign affected the result”. HAHAHAHAHA.
72. Marcus Wood - “… it’s sole purpose was simply to win elections; not run the country.”
The primary purpose of the Labour Party machine was to win elections… in order for its chubby wee piglets to gorge themselves at the trough of taxpayers’ cash.
If you doubt the truth of this, just have a look at the mafias running Scottish Labour’s badlands.
Now that they can no longer win elections, and thus feed the chubby wee piglets, there is no purpose whatsoever to the Labour Party. Bye bye, and good riddance.
Gordon reacts to C&N:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkUzfAfwP1A
ARE THE TORIES THAT CLOSE?
MY CABINET HAVE BETRAYED ME!
I’VE BEEN LIED TO FROM THE VERY BEGINNING!
New Thread Godwins Law Violated.
77
John MsDonnell MP has it spot on. not in my opinion.
It’s the economy.
And with oil prices etc and the building industry about to make 100,000 direct employees redundant in the next 6 months - plus probably 200,000 related jobs to follow..
and retail sales down…
The economic gloom is going to get worse..
They could change Gordon Brown to David Cameron as Leader but the Government are going to be blamed whomever the Leader.
“Good” morning all
A very hearty congratulations to all the Tory boys and girls out there. This was a stellar victory by anyone’s standards and you should feel thrilled.
I felt I had to come out and “show my face” as it were. Well. What now then? I fear in my heart that Gordon neither knows nor understands the level of sheer anger and distrust that is focussed against him and the government. It breaks my heart to admit this, it really does, (especially on a site where, shall we say, gloating at political opponent’s misfortune has evolved into almost an art form!) but I don’t thing Gordon is up to the job. Trotting out the line “I am the best person to make the tough decisions in difficult times” just won’t wash.
I had such great hopes of and for Gordon. I have to admit that, although I believe him to be of the highest personal integrity and intellectual calibre, he has simply not proved to be prime ministerial material. He has been a disappointment in almost every sphere. Labour supporters like me look on in dispair and disbelief. From the utter farago of the 10p tax decision (well done Gordon), to the needless and pointless rows with the police and nurses (over practically a pittance!) the government lurches from crisis to crisis, with no one seemingly at the helm. The reheated Blairism that was presented as the next bills to go through Parliament will enthuse no one, least of all the activists. My brother said yesterday “If they are going to act like incompetent Tories, well, you may as well elect the real thing!”
I can come up with new policies and directions for the party to take, but I fear the public has just stopped listening. When the ball rolls away from you in politics, there isn’t much you can do about it. I know a lot can happen in two years, and I shall work hard for an unprecedented 4th term. But really, in the final analysis, why do we WANT to win a 4th term? What do we have to offer with Gordon as PM?
I am proud to be a member of a party which, I believe, has changed this country immesurably for the better since 1997, not only in macro terms, but in personal, family terms that I won’t bore you with here. This really is the tipping point and I see no profit in deluding myself.
Oh well, at least the sun is shining!
Good result, particularly given the negative campaigning that went on.
Regarding the next election:
Brown’s rubbish at presentation and connecting with people but he’s also lost his gravitas.
So, do you replace him and if so, with whom?
If Labour move they should move this year, but I’m still not convinced that would be best. The possibility of more serious splits opening up (right now there are no ideological divides yet they’re still managing to do some infighting) could be worse than retaining the Supreme Leader.
Mike’s right, the most likely result at present is a Conservative majority. Naturally things can change, for better or worse, but right now that’s what it looks like.
78 The Cameron car thing is easily dealt with - as Cameron does when challenged “Stupid wasn’t I, happened a few times just after I became leader, got panniers, use those, silly mistake to have made”.
Gordon Brown on the other hand, based on the Wendereferendum, 10p tax rate etc, would deny he had ever done it and point out unnecessary Government car trips were 20% higher under Harold Macmillan and anyway he’s listening and taking hard, long term decisions.
To save me from flogging through loads of cheery tory comments, can our host please advise whether we should be buying or selling Labour seats at 230?
My usual rule of adding/subtracting 50 doesn’t much help. Are labour more likely to get 180 or 280 seats?
I see the BBC’s headline of “Tories snatch Crewe from Labour” has now changed to Tories hail Remarkable Victory
RSS reader still showing old headline.
Someone must have told them this just wasn’t quite the way the public were looking at the result. Maybe they were reading PB!
87 Yes it is the economy, but Labour’s problem is that they have a leader who is “Mr The Economy” so it’s personally laid at the party’s door. Matter are worse because some of the recent actions such as the 10p Tax band have actively made peoples finances tighter. It’s not rocket science. As a result Brown is in a weak position.
76. Sea Shanty Irish - “Think the Canadian experience is relavant to the UK, because the Canuck political system is thoroughly British with little Westminsters not just in Ottawa but in all of the provincial and even territorial capitals. Which matches in many respects the emerging regionalism within the United Kingdom.”
Point of information:
Unlike the Canadian federations’ provincial parliaments, none of the 3 devolved legislatures in the UK are based on the ‘Westminster system’. See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westminster_system
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly
78. ……Not hypocrisy but a let-them-eat-cake-out-of-touchness that he’s working hard to neutralize with his web-cam stuff and inviting cameras into his living room……
He’s ripe for satire in my opinion and when the shine comes off him-which it’s bound to in the next two years-I’m sure it’ll be exploited.
david kendrick- short term sell at 230 long term buy……no bet !
john reid praises Gordon………. unfortunately it was gordon strachan not brown!
oh happy days
43 Roger. How very dare you !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Not only was ARSE spot on with its C&N poll but other recent polls have had an seering accuracy and insightful analysis seldom seen outside the rarified circles of Nobel Prize winners and Basil Brush’s abacus .. boom boom !!!
ARSE poll republished from yesterday afternoon :
EXCLUSIVE FOR PB **** EXCLUSIVE FOR PB **** EXCLUSIVE FOR PB ****
ARSE POLL FOR CREWE AND NANTWICH **** ARSE POLL FOR CREWE AND NANTWICH
Conservative 49% …. Labour 29% …. LibDem 16% …. Others 6%
by Jack W May 22nd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
95 It was hypocrisy. He wanted to benefit from a green image that his actions in reality didn’t back up. Anyway that is now ancient history . Who cares!
The Toff thing is irrelevant whilst they’re Tories are young and in opposition. Once Cameron and Boris look like old buffers in power it will come back to haunt them. Heath looked out of touch within two years of power.
Labour’s campaign on the ground in C&N clearly made a bad situation even worse.
Saw a bit of Mr. Timpson MP on TV answering questions, he is far from a stereotypical “toff” though my colonial ear is not finely tuned to subtle class distinctions it is true. If I had to sum up the impression he made, I’d say moderate, respectful, public spirited; on a non-party basis a sound choice and a reasonable change of pace after his late, great predecessor.
So going after him with top hats & cutaways was hardly persuasive on the campaign trail. Plus unless you live in Vilna & Lvov, bashing the Poles of all people is generally a mistake, and always in poor taste. I mean, they fought like lions on the side of freedom and the British, from the skys of Kent to the ridgetops of Italy to the hedgerows of Normandy and beyond. And were left in the lurch in 1945 as in 1939. Surely this has not been forgetten in Dear Old Blighty. Particularly by likely by-election voter, who like primary voters in the US tend to be both more educated and older than the average citizen.
And lets not forget dropping the writ before Dunnwoody the Elder had even been buried, the putting Dunnwoody the Younger on display like a prize cow at the Cheshire fair.
I absolve the daughter from all of this, for by her lights, when the Labour Party called, no granddaughter of Morgan Phillips would fail to heed it. The family has done too much for the party, and visa versa. That may be dynasticism. But it’s the kind of thing that from time to time gives dynasticism a good name
But I do not absolve the Labour apparatchik incompetence that dreamed up the “Draft Tamsin” strategy in the first place. You could hear the snort from Big Mama all the way from the Pearly Gates to Paddington Station. It was an insult to Gwyneth Dunwoody’s legacy, including linking her name with an historical defeat for the Labour Party achieved by people she disdained and who disresepected her. Worse, it was an insult to the voters intelligence that even the village idiot comprehended.
So all around, appears that Labour had a worse strategy on the ground in C&N - divorced from the national nosedive of Gordon Brown & the Labour Party - than Miss Great Britian, who came in last in the poll but achieve her goal, which was a boatload of free publicity and a touch of history.
88. Very good post flump. The £30 million he wouldn’t give to the police looks silly when he’s just given billions to correct a mistake. He’s become so accident prone I can’t see him recovering. Your brother has it spot on!
101
Correct a mistake? I thought it was to buy a by-election.
101 - To be honest Rog, I feel a bit punch drunk with it all.
Was the fragrant Harriet asked why she didn’t head to Crewe to shore up Labour’s vote?
Last night I wondered if the ‘report’ on drink related admissions to hospial was linked to possible rises in excise duty, and I do wonder how Darling’s new VED regime will be received by voters. Nothing like hitting the core vote, but we are being Green, saving the planet, protecting your health.
Brown and co may have limited control over the exchange rate, but the recent falls could lead to some nasty surprises on food and oil retail prices within the next year. If exports don’t pick up over the next year, this too will damage any residual reputation the Enron Chancellor has left.
If the Tories do win, Call Me Dave will face hard decisions on spending cuts, taxes and the economy. Unlike Bliar and Co, there is no budget surplus, or strong growth, instead a rising budget deficit, stuttering growth and rising inflation coupled with a barely mentioned trade deficit. Looks like very interesting times ahead for all parties.
103 Don’t feel punch drunk. (I doubt) it’s your fault. When Labour recover it will be because of people like you. Get out enjoy the sunshine, give it a couple of days and find a way to contribute.
I would love to be a fly on the wall in the Blair household this morning.
Tony’s revenge on Gordon must qualify as one of the most spectacular rogerings in political history.
94 - good point. But it’s actually part of my point.
Because Canadians have gone into hyperdrive when it comes to regionalism. All the time pouring this new wine into old Brit bottles. Because those bottles were there pretty much from first settlement, in one form or another, scattered across the landscape from St Johns to Victoria. In deed, in most provinces the legislatures are older than the federal governments
Next 7th May, or whenever they decide to hold the 2009 local elections, Labour will be defending 483 County Council and Unitary seats that it won on General Election day in 2005.
On last nights performance, with a swing of 17½% from Labour to Conservative and 6% Labour to Lib Dems, then some 85% of the Labour seats could be at risk. Indeed, if last night’s vote is in reality “anyone but Labour”, then Labour could be pushed to retain 50 County Council seats across the whole of the country.
May 1st this year did see swings of over 10% against Labour in a few County Council by-elections which would be translated into Labour losing around 70% of its seats or more than 300 County Councillors.
The Labour Party faces potentially one more year of heavy local council losses if the government is not forced to hold a General Election before then.
Any word from the bunker yet?
Or are they still clearing up the mess, ordering new mobiles, crockery etc?
@105:
*If*, not when.
So, the Conservatives got 29% of the vote. Over 20,000 votes were cast for them. A 7,000+ majority and a swing if 17%. I think we can say a very cllear message has been sent, and that is that the public want Brown out NOW. Make no mistake, this is a very personal humiliation for the great vote loser Brown.
The thing is, we in the party are not clueless and are brimming with ideas for the future (some good, some bad, some indifferent) - but we are ignored by the party high-ups. THAT is the frustrating thing.
And what happened to the Lib-Dems? Their bote went DOWN 4%. This has got to be a minor disaster for Nick Clegg?
88. RedFlump - “… although I believe [Gordon Brown] to be of the highest personal integrity… “
I do not know where on earth you ever got that idea from, but you have clearly been gravely, gravely mislead.
101. I seem to recall you didn’t think it silly at the time when Jacqui “dick turpin” robbed the police of their promised wages. Bad move upsetting 124,000 potential voters.
115 - I have NEVER supported the totally wrongheaded policy of shafting public sector workers out of their pay just to look “tough”.
@112:
Well, that’s your problem. You do have ideas, but the party higher-ups has no choice but to ignore them. Socialism doesn’t work, and the people of Britain doesn’t want it.
117 - How nice of you to talk for “the people of Britain”. Thanks!
116. Sorry that was aimed at Roger.
Contrasting US Late Night TV
JAY LENO: joint appearance by First Lady Laura Bush and her newly-maried daughter Jena. As per usual (except when Babs in off her meds) the Bush women were much more appealing than their menfolk.
CRAIG FERGUSON: “Oprah is such a good person. Even when she farts, it helps people.”
I wonder what the result would have been if Labour had not chosen Tamsin as candidate, not run the “toff” campaign etc…My guess is that they would have done even worse as this negative campaigning at the very least brought out the core tribal Labour vote as 30% in the circs is the best they could have hoped for. It is also a measure of the how far that “taken for granted” Labour vote has shrunk. This “traditional” vote will shrink even further regardless of who is in charge, or economic circumstances and how much you pump up the volume on the hearing aid.
Sea Shanty’s great analysis of the lessons to be learnt from the Canadian experience has left me confused. I had been convinced after reading the regular posts from a certain well-known visitor to this site that in Canada only a neo-Cons islamophobic policy can ever hope to win there. I think our dear Phillipe is really Osama Bin Laden trying to cover his tracks - Dubya, for the sake of Western civilisation please take the appropriate measures.
A sign of how bad things are for Labour is that even their doomtastic spinning of low expectations has been right royally shafted twice this month. They can’t even get that right.
In the locals, it was “200 losses would be bad” - and they lost 300+.
Last night, it was “Tories going to win by 7,000″ - and they won by 8,000.
119 - OK no probs.
I just wanted to express my frustration and disappointment to like minded political freaks like me. I guess some of you enjoy acting like 14 year olds. It’s not enough to loose - we must have our faces rubbed in it and be made to “reform” and see the error of our ways and be made to disavow everything we have ever stood for and believed in. Ho hum, twas ever thus.
106. Norman Mormal - “Tony’s revenge on Gordon must qualify as one of the most spectacular rogerings in political history.”
Après moi, le déluge!
@117:
Oh, my mistake. Perhaps I’ve been misinterpreting Britain’s systematic failure to elect socialists as some kind of evidence that it’s not wanted.
Swing back to socialism if you wish. It won’t save you, obviously, but it might make opposition more bearable.
Well, one does one’s best!
Did anyone see the enthusiastic applause and clapping by the fair Gemma last night as Timpson was declared victor?
Is she a Tory on the quiet?
Mind you, everyone’s a Tory these days…
@123:
RedFlump, I don’t think anyone has any desire to rub your face in it.
Roger, maybe. Gordon, definitely.
127 - As someone said earlier “How very DARE you!”
Any senior Labour figures coming out to defend Brown yet?
Given the Liberals have LOST votes, any reason for the Tories not to call an election in Henley?
128 - Fair do’s Martin, fair do’s.
Fact is, as I said in a thread a few weeks ago, when hope is gone, then one is able to almost look objectivley at things. Like those rubberneckers who slow down and gawk at a crash on the motorway - for us Labour supporters, it is dreadful - but you’ve just *got* to look. What will happen next?
Jack,
Very brave of you to have your ARSEhanging out there - at risk of taking quite a beating.
But look on in wonder, you professional pollsters - Jack’s ARSE is a shining beacon!
108. Richard, the number of seats has dropped a bit IIRC because of the new unitaries. Labour are set to lose North Tyneside’s mayor next year as well on just the slightest swing.
Labour are going to have to play the general election in damage limitation mode. If Brown waits till 2010 he faces not only wipeout in the commons but also in the London Boroughs and the other local authorities that day. If I were Brown I’d just push through some populist legislation and charge into the breach during the brief honeymoon!
O/T Can someone please let me know how to find the Veep markets on Betfair? Unless I’m very much mistaken, they seem to have been taken down.
130:”Given the Liberals have LOST votes, any reason for the Tories not to call an election in Henley?”
Because it would be held in early summer when disproportionately more Tory voters will be likely to be on holiday (out of term time) than Lib Dem voters?
Indeed, do joyless LDs actually go on holiday?
@131:
Right you are. Still, I fundamentally believe that, whilst a return to more socialist values must look very temptingly comforting right now, it can do nothing to save Labour from what is to come.
It may be the only thing that will guarantee the Unions’ continued obeisance in staving off Labour’s bankruptcy, however.
131 I think Brown’s departure will be the next happening. Hios position is utterly hopeless. The chances of him being still in office at the time of the Party conferenece seem to me to be about zero. All that remains to be decided is the timing and manner of his removal.
127 Methinks that Miss Great Britain, being a well brought up Ulster lass, was politely applauding the winner.
Re 14: Isn’t it time Sinn Fein’s MPs had their H of C allowances and priveleges stopped? They either turn up and represent their constituents, or a prevented from attending Parliament, surely?
108/133 I saw yesterday in the Standard that Labour had decided to combine next year’s local elections with the euro-elections ie in June. Of course the ge doesn’t have to be combined with locals, it just has been the past three times - Nulab was fairly confident of victory anyway. What about Autumn 2009?
137 - Martin, I totally agree with you. The return to socialism almost destroyed the party in 1983 and this will not happen again. A few honest (”traditional” shall we say) moves is hardly a return to socialism. We have moved so far to the right that a little tack to the left is neither here nor there.
@141:
There are some obvious low-hanging fruit. We could probably agree on them without much effort.
1. Abolish ID cards
2. Abolish the 42-day idiocy
3. Referendum on Lisbon Treaty
4. Enquiry into the Iraq war
Chances of Gordon’s doing any of the above?
Does anyone know when the spread markets usually react to an event such as this? Or have we seen the effect already?
One thing worth commenting upon was that Crewe was such an unlikely seat for the Tories to win in General Election, yet even down in safe Labour territory they had a very capable young candidate who looks like he will be more than able to represent his constituents (and not embarrass his party!). He had been conscientiously working his seat for a year and gained credit for that with the voters too (cf the LibDem notion of parachuting in a non-local but more telegenic candidate). It may just be a one-off, but it does suggest that there is “strength in depth” out beyond the target seats.
And whilst the Labour campaign will become a by-word for its crass small-minded appeal to an electorate that was far brighter than they were given credit for, the Tory by-election campaign in Crewe ran on rails (geddit??). Move over Lord Rennard, there’s a new by-election sharpshooter in town - and his names is Pickles….
PS Does Dunwoody have to account for the £2.7 billion on her election expenses???
I’ve never understood why any political party rejoices when it wins a third GE victory, its always the, ‘Graveyard Term’ unless you win a fourth and thats even worse.
As for the future!with price of oil heading north, assumptions could be confounded.
@140:
No, that’s silly. People won’t want to be bothered three times in a year to vote.
No, the general election will be either June ‘09 to coincide with the Euros or May 2010 to coincide with the locals.
127
She had a bit of a falling out with Labour during the campaign.
http://www.creweguardian.co.uk/mostpopular.var.2267572.mostviewed.miss_great_britain_attacks_labour.php
97.”john reid praises Gordon………. unfortunately it was gordon strachan not brown!”
:LOL:
113 Lib Dems. What happened?
Their vote share dropped 4%. It was similar to what happened in London. All that effort that they say that they made (I had said it seemed half hearted) and they end up unable to grab any gain from Labour’s 19% meltdown and instead lose vote share to the Conservatives. Last year at Ealing Southall the Conservatives (in 3rd) resisted the LD by election squeeze. In C&N the Conservatives (in 2nd) squeezed out the LDs of both their vote share and Labour’s meltdown.
The LDs decision to replace their original candidate now looks to be a monumental error. It was a very short campaign period so why try and launch an unknown?
As the party that lives off the transfusion of election wins, they have now lost another and their wins are becoming distant memories.
Clegg has to decide whether he should go with the voters views and re-focus his party as an anti-Labour one rather than the anti-Conservative party it is today. He has to do it as Rennard seems incapable of altering direction.
Rennard states that this was not a vote for the Conservatives!
142
No chance of an Iraq war enquiry.
If there was and it was thorough, there would imo be court cases and Lord Hutton would look a bigger idiot than he does already.
Sorry Bob, unable to go to Henley this week (I got an email timed at 4.57am this morning from Lord Rennard asking me to go to help in Henley) I am on holiday - Turkey (Kalkan).
Is it the Labour party or is it Brown? That is the question. The world economic situation needs a brave new approach to the UK economy, with massive cuts in interest rates (down to the level of our competitors). Not sure that Brown can do this, or would be trusted if he did. A new leader should do something different but no one left at the top of the Party seems to have any charisma.
Whether there is a positive mood for the Tories, and not just an anti Labour mood will be tested by what happens in Henley.
149 The Lib Dems are in as much of a pickle this morning as Labour, if not more. Their raison-d’etre has been challenged. What is the point of the LDs if the Tories can attract Labour votes.
Cameron has built a huge bypass around the LibDem by-election machine. Who wants to be stuck on amber when you sail right through.
137 Interesting to hear your views Nick, as I and others have significant bets on the date of Brown’s departure.
Betfair’s odds on his going during Q3 2008 are currently around 3.2/1
Best card for Brown to play is the union card battling for Britain against the devil incarnate Alex Salmond…
@152:
They need to find a new raison d’etre. Being the party of the left that Labour is supposed to be might be one angle. Though I’m not sure Rennard would be able to change his strategy that quickly.
has brown resigned yet? whilst i have no love of labour its pretty clear they face a wipeout with him in charge. will milburn start his campaign today?
151, I reckon it’s largely Labour, exacerbated badly by Brown.
Unfortunately, for Labour, removing him could prove dangerous, if he doesn’t want to go, or there’s bloodletting. There’s no real change candidate because they almost all lined up behind Brown.
A good changeover to Cruddas, Straw perhaps or Denham could get them back to hung Parliament territory. A bad changeover would be worse than sticking with Brown, and electing Balls or Harman would indicate the Labour Party simply wants to be put out of its misery.
114.88. RedFlump - “… although I believe [Gordon Brown] to be of the highest personal integrity… “
“I do not know where on earth you ever got that idea from, but you have clearly been gravely, gravely mislead.”
I agree Stuart, men of integrity do not rack up the amount of personal vendetta’s that Gordon Brown did throughout his career, nor do they write books on courage for political gain when incapable of showing any signs of it themselves.
132 MM. Can’t argue with that !!
Some points that PISSED have been looking at :
Turnout for a by-election was very strong and that highlights the performance for each of the parties.
The Conservatives enjoyed a historic win at the very top end of expectations. And from the national polls so they should. This by-election was tailor made for the Tories and they executed their opportunity very well. The question for the Tories is whilst the support is wide, how deep and lasting will it be ??
A total disaster for Labour and a very personal rebuff for Our Gawd. Is this simply a third government mid term blues by-election loss of the sort that Conservative governments used to suffer or as Mike S believes a harbinger of the general election to come. PISSED believe that the jury is still out but verging on a decision !!
For the Lib Dems the result was slightly on the worse side of average. They might have been squeezed very badly especially in light of the high turnout but managed to get away with a result that says very little nationally. Henley is likely to be a much sterner task.
ARSE - An unqualified triumph !!!!!!!!!!!!
Did anyone hear Harriet Harperson on R5 and R4. She kept saying things… and I thought, thats not true…, nor is that…. etc etc. She was absolutely awful, and indicative that Labour have no idea what to do. I think the strategy if Gordon is not knifed is to pray the economy comes right. I hope thats what they do because it wont in time, and people will have been thro misery. Its over for Labour
88, 123 the best post of the thred, on morning after historic Tory triumph, from one of pb’s top Labour posters.
Personally think that most of the reform that the Labour Party needs is in the govt bureaucracy and apparatchik departments. That fresh air is the best disinfectant. And new blood the best tonic.
Which does not mean that current & longtime party members should be pushed aside. Indeed, get the impression the membership has been too long marginalized, same as backbenchers in H of C. So part of the renovation is bringing back some of the oldtimers.
On the other hand, would be folly to devate sharply from the New Labour course. Like it or not, it has its historic logic and “dialectic”. What ReNew Labor can do, is trim the leylandia of spin that has all but swallowed up Blair, Brown and the Labour Party. And in its place substitute some rigor, pragmatism and just a touch of idealism toward actually achieving some of the “targets” that Old-New Labour is/was conitually setting & spouting.
That is, regaining the reputation for compentent managment of progressive policy in the public interest, that was once the proud boast of Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and the Labour Party.
Fred at 143-Here is a dfferent answer to the one I gave David Kendrick half an hour ago.
I NOW think that the reaction to the C&N result has been seen and in truth has been fairly muted.
So my new advice to DK would definitely not to be a Seller of LAB Seats at 230.I would now be looking to Sell Tory Seats around 352.0.
143 Fred - the spread markets react immediately to this type of result, always assuming, unlike Sporting’s, that they actually remain open!
In fact Spreadfair’s GE seats market has moved the odd one seat or so in Labour’s favour since the C&N result was announced.
Any news yet on who won the politicshome competition? Annoyingly, I can’t remember exactly what my suggestion was, but it was somewhere in the 7,000s (but anyone who bid 8,000 dead on must be very nicely placed).
Hmmm just a thought! Alex Ferguson, isn’t he a Labour supporter?
Perhaps he’d fancy a new challenge?
Well all the Labour comments here so far confirm what I have been saying - that they have basically given up, and psychologically are already in opposition.
Moreover, the signs of a sharp swing to the left are clearly visible. Have a look at these snippets from a letter to my local paper -
‘The Labour government’s biggest mistake has been the continuation of..Thatcherite policies’..’the state is democratic, which is more than can be said about private companies’…’radical policies…from a Labour government worthy of the name, carrying out socialist policies’
And this is from a Labour PPC, not some member of the green ink brigade. Labour are headed for a prolonged and painful period in opposition.
156 Yes I agree with that - a messy changeover could make things worse, but the chances of that are quite low - I would say only about 20% - there is an 80% chance that a change will make things better. The last 2 Labour leadership contests, and the deputy contest last year, have not been messy or divisive, and I don’t think a messy contest now is very likely. It is much more probable that the party will come together under a new leader, as it did under Blair in the mid 90s, and did at first under Brown last year. There is a danger that the PLP will sit like a rabbit in the headlights, too scared of its own shadow to move. But on balance I doubt it - the pressures on Brown are too strong to be resisted.
Henley represents an opportunity and a danger for the Conservatives. If they can hold it with a sizable majority then they will break the LD by election operation. Just as they broke Labour’s at C&N.
The puzzle is why the LDs have again dropped their local PPC and installed a new “foreigner”.
A risky strategy for the LDs would be to call a by election in Winchester just to force a fight with the Conservatives. However after C&N they are going to be wary of creating a fight when they are no longer certain that they are “the by election kings”.
I thought the most pleasing aspect of last night’s result was that Dunwoody lost. She came across as a mendacious, hypocritical, hectoring shrew. Gordon must be doubly disappointed as with those gifts he probably had her earmarked for a cabinet role, joining those other harridans Flint and Cooper.
Although I have never met either and may have misjudged both of them, it looks like the good guy, Timpson, won.
161 URW - Good advice IMHO. Following your posts a couple of weeks ago, I bought, for 99p 0n eBay, Mike Atherton’s “Gambling - A Story of Triumph and Disaster”, which I can thoroughly recommend to PBers. I’m yet to read the somewhat uncomplimentary reference to your goodself!
I guessed 7,800 on PHI but have not had the win confirmed.
So presumably someone else chose a number closer such as 7,850?
Bottom line: C&N means ghost of ERM finally laid to rest.
A view from across the pond from the “New York Times” on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/24/world/europe/24britain.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Bearing in mind the frequency with which pb.com is quoted and the enthusiasm that John McDonnell has been seized upon (McDonnell critical, wow), I’ll just congratulate the Tories here on their party’s excellent result and say something about the thread theme.
Obviously Mike’s prediction is a possible result, and as a gambler he has to plump for something. But the logic is debatable. Mike argues that Labour can have big by-election wins without winning the next GE, but that doesn’t happen for the Tories. But that’s based on a sample of, er, 2 - 1970 and 1979, in both of which they had good by-elections and went on to win. It’s a stretch to say that therefore this is always the pattern, and there is some unexplained reason why by-lections are an invariable pointed when Tories in opposition but not when Labour is.
And thanks to RedFlump and Roger for keeping the flag flying!
I am less surprised by the Tory share of the vote than I am by the turn-out. I don’t think anyone here expected that it would drop by only - what - 1.5% from the general election?
This suggest to me that next time turn-out may well go back up into the high sixties. That in turn suggests that there is a significant section of the electorate that will either vote Conservative or not at all. Labour’s three victories were all noteworthy for their low turn-out.
If British elections really are decided by these “weak Tories” there is nothing that any other party can do to decide the outcome of elections. We have a Conservative government when those voters decide that they are up for it, and we don’t when they don’t.
On this analysis Blair’s success was basically due to the fact that he was sufficiently right-wing that he didn’t actually do anything which the Conservatives could unite around to get their act together enough to win the “weak Tory” vote back. By 2005, of course, the Conservatives were sufficiently bored with oppositon that they were willing to address the problem.
I would say that, on the basis of the all the polls we’ve had this year, the “weak Tories” are back in the column and will stay there for two General Elections, which will deliver Cameron three-figure majorities (unleess the tory Euro-war breaks out all over again, which they find a turn-off). And I think Mr Timpson will be part of that, at least for the first term.
@173:
Nick,
RedFlump, yes. But is Roger really the kind of man you want flying the red flag? You don’t want to make your situation any worse than necessary, surely?
best book on gambling is “Education of a P*ker Player” by Herbert O. Yardley, US WWI codebreaker who learned his card skill in a small town Indiana gamming den - seriously old school.
174 “Labour’s three victories were all noteworthy for their low turn-out.”
No - 1997 turnout was 70%+. It only dropped in 2001.
77 - the best next to our esteemed host’s learned opus, that is!
169 Yes Tamsin Dunwoody did come across as unpleasant in a number of interviews but we should cut her some slack because she is still in the grieving period and was probably very stressed.
It was of course a disgrace by Labour to have rushed the by election and put Tamsin Dunwoody in this situation.
If Labour had waited 6 weeks they may not have suffered such an electoral meltdown either. Serves them right.
88-red flump-pray tell me how this country has immesurably changed for the better since 97′.Do you live in a parallel universe or something.
Chat Show Charlie to Ming to Clegg.
Major to Hague to IDS to Howard.
Changing the leader is no panacea.
178 SSI - You just managed to slip that in in the nick of time!
re various posters - a massive Tory win has been priced in for days at C and N, and therefore priced into the other betting markets too but more subtly. There is a City phrase “buy the rumour, sell the fact” which sums up the way markets behave when this happens.
If the markets had been wrong and Labour had won the Tory seats market would have collapsed… probably 30 seats or so.
174.”If British elections really are decided by these “weak Tories” there is nothing that any other party can do to decide the outcome of elections. We have a Conservative government when those voters decide that they are up for it, and we don’t when they don’t.”
IA, I think that you are onto something there, the Tories lost was it 3/4 millions voters in 97′. Some switched to Labour and the Libdems, but many disappeared into the electoral ether of apathy.
Last night, the biggest surprise for me was the turnout, and this should worry the Labour party in a seat like C&N as much as the huge swing to the Conservatives in the final result.
141, 142 - it is a necessary condition to say what Labour won’t do any more of (no to identity cards, no to identity politics etc), but it’s not sufficient: Labour must say what it will do. The people who it is losing are the in-work working class, who are being propelled by Labour policies to think of themselves with the middle class, because that is how they are being treated.
I would suggest the following:
1) more employment rights but not more union rights
2) more tax advantages for basic/lower rate tax payers (eg additional tax relief for pension contributions by basic/lower rate tax payers, paid for by removing relief at higher rate from higher rate tax payers)
3) keep the tough on crime emphasis, and make peace with the police
4) within the scope of the law, give preferential tax, social security and housing treatment to British nationals first, EU nationals second, others last
5) develop a programme of house-building based on the nation’s needs rather than its wants (ie lots of one and two bedroom flats in towns rather than three bedroom semis in picturesque rural locations that happen to be flood plains)
6) make a coherent case for Britain’s place in the EU and its wider foreign policy objectives, but to remember that socialism begins at home
The irony is that Gordon Brown was extremely well-placed to front up this type of dour, almost 1940s style programme - he is naturally suited to being a “tough choices” prime minister. It is one of life’s mysteries that he comprehensively flunked the opportunity.
[177] Well, that was significantly down on 1992. I overstated my case in one respect: the other Parties can of course adopt policies which energise the “weak Tory” vote, although none has done so for over twenty years.
Morning all, I am just wondering if this will impact on the next round of opinion polls. I suspect that is might as some people may wish to follow the herd. Plus also the news has been full of this being the first by-election gain from Labour in 30 years which may subtly impact people’s behaviour. I wonder also if more Labour voters will slip out of the calculation on certainty to vote which would also inflate the Conservative position.
Last night was without doubt a spectacular result and I don’t think anyone should downplay the Timpson effect. Not having been to C and N, my impression is entirely gleaned from media appearances. He struck me as sensible, decent and most certainly not triumphalistic (if there is such a word!).
I know its the convention but I thought he gave a genuinely warm and heartfelt tribute to the late and much missed Mrs G Dunwoody, so much so that when the BBC camera swing on to Tamsin she clearly looked very emotional and her own remarks were in turn very muted. It seems to me that the good voters of C and N have just returned another hardworking, thoughtful and decent person as their MP and regardless of party colours, that makes him a very suitable successor and hopefully he will enjoy 34 years there. Mike any bets on his job in the first DC government. I would have thought a shoe-in for the Home Office at junior level.
DC was very muted in his interview this morning and I think the non-political animals out there will see him as a sensible assured PM in waiting. If Labour had held, GB would have been out of No 10 at 07.30 to grin like a Cheshire cat (given the location of the constituency makes this phrase rather funny).
DC will probably be in Crewe as I type and then he is heading to the Scottish Tory conference in Ayr. It will be interesting to see the next set of polls. Will we see any defections in the near future? Time will tell
Would Ferguson take the job? Changing the manager is always the answer in footballing terms, but the incoming manager only has one question “How much can I spend?”. The problem is that neither the country or the Labour party has any money to spend (The labour party is probably in a worse state but it must be close).
The message from Crewe is that it “Is The Economy Stupid” Iraq inquiry, 42 days and anything other than how well off people feel - a combination of house prices, petrol prices and tax -is all that matters.
Having great trouble replying to PFP and SSI re Athers and H.O.Yardley.Very strange.
183 ChrisD. BTW …. apologies from yesterday for implying that you had turned into a French Fancy of the male gender !!
The toff attack was rubbish in the extreme. It must have made a large part of the electorate very uncomfortable in voting for Labour, especially after looking and Timpson and seeing nothing in what Labour had said about him. He doesn’t sound like a nasty toff, he doesn’t look like one, and he certainly doesn’t act like one. The entire strategy was negative and badly done, and I highly doubt it would work in a GE either. Cameron is too likeable and engaging to be painted as a tory toff, just like Johnson was.
Harman was rubbish on today as well, by her version it looks like Labour didn’t lose because of their campaign, or their candidate, but because of people’s money problem’s. She just rolled out stats and figures, denied there were any problems, and praised Brown.
The Lib Dem candidate’s speech last night was rubbish, ‘people don’t like the tories really’ is just a pathetic justification for a terrible by election performance by the lib dems.
190.JackW, you were just being a typical saucy Jacobite with a good dose of French fancy thrown in. Now when was the last time we had one of those? Someone called Charlie comes to mind.
[184] Antifrank suggests that Labour should, among other things develop a programme of house-building based on the nation’s needs rather than its wants (ie lots of one and two bedroom flats in towns rather than three bedroom semis in picturesque rural locations that happen to be flood plains) - I agree, though I don’t see why this as a policy should attract any particular party more than another.
European observers have long associated the low level of civic culture in this country with the English obsession with the “semi”. It is noteworthy how rarely the words “suburban” and “civilisation” appear in the same sentence.
Of course, I live in a flat nearly in the centre of London
180: The moves from Campbell and IDS to Clegg and Howard did/have improved things for their parties.
Backto “my GE call a Tory majority.
Worth a bet if odds are good.
However too early to make that call I think.Last year see sawed in the polls from June to October.
I would wait until end of 2008,tak ethe average of theyears pools.If that still produces a Tory majotity then ok ,but my money would still be on hung.
It is true to say that a part from a signifcant economic improvement(unlikely) there seems little light for Labour at the end of their tunnel.
Andof course the Tories will have to deliver convincing policy.
rogerh
195 - I agree that this shouldn’t be party political. Mind you, I live in a flat in the centre of London, so I too might be biased!
hi folks, a friend just emailed this to me. Enough said I think though I would love to know who some of the miscreants are but that’s just badness on my part.Separately, I thought Chris Bryant was quite good on the BBC Election special, refreshing to hear a Labour MP admit they were gubbed. Sad reflection on the Government that GB couldn’t even persuade a Junior Minister, let alone a Cabinet Minster to face the music with Jon Sopel and co. I was surprised not to see David Cairns on. He is the Scotland Office Minister Des Browne puts in front of the TV cameras every time Labour is in deep shit!
Here is the ditty I was sent:
> Can you imagine working for a company that has a little over 500 employees
> and has the following statistics?
>
> 29 have been accused of spouse abuse
> 7 have been arrested for fraud
> 19 have been accused of writing bad cheques
> 117 have directly or indirectly bankrupted at least 2 businesses
> 3 have done time for assault
> 71 cannot get a credit card due to bad credit
> 14 have been arrested on drug-related charges
> 8 have been arrested for shoplifting
> 21 are currently defendants in lawsuits
> 84 have been arrested for drunk driving in the last year
>
> Can you guess which organization this is?
>
> It’s the 535 members of the Houses of Parliament. The very same group that
> cranks out hundreds of new laws each year designed to keep the rest of us
> in
> line.
Question for Mike Smithson or anyone in the know.I have had a few posts rejected in th last couple of days.
I didn’t use bad language but did engage on a (pleasant) personal level and used DATES.
Was this the reason the posts were rejected ?
192- “a French Fancy of the male gender”
Nice definition :-;
175. Interesting IA - did you realise Norman Tebbit has been advancing essentially the same argument for some years?
188 - The worst for the economy may very well be over and an incoming leader could take credit for that by the end of the year. Of course it may not be, in which case (s)he would be in trouble. But for all the hysterical talk, there is a perfectly good chance things are steadying themselves.
A new leader isn’t a panacea of course. But Brown (and I write as somebody who quite likes him) is fundamentally holed below the waterline. People have formed a view, it is very unfavourable on average, and it won’t change. This by-election could well be like Eastbourne - a couple of weeks of odd calm while activity goes on behind the scenes. But who will play the parts of Howe and Hezza come June?
The new leader should look towards an early election even if behind in the polls. He should look on a narrow defeat as a good result and continue as leader - Cameron is not a Thatcher or a Blair and Labour would have a decent shot at bouncing back early.
has anyone had their C&N cash from betfair yet?
196 re leadership changes. Improved only in the sense of shutting up MPs who’d been whispering against the old leader. Electorally, not so hot, and that’s what counts.
Was struck by Cameron’s response today - was all about creating a ‘coalition for change,’ - very New Labour.
199 - That’s an old e-mail about the US Congress where somebody has replaced “Congress” with “Parliament”. It is not remotely accurate (indeed not even sure it is accurate about its original country).
204 HE.
For some reason the market is still open and BF haven’t settled it yet.
Maybe ‘dimpled chads’ will come into play.
Re-reading the original question which was “when was the last time the Tories took a seat off Labour and failed to win the subsequent general elecction”? Leyton in 1965 is rightly excluded. However, there was the Brighouse and Spenborough by election of 1960 which Michael Shaw gained from Labour. In 1964 the Home Government went down to defeat. Michael Shaw lost his seat to Colin Jackson who had contested the by election.
207. I don’t think it would be accurate about the US Congress either - OK, so we all know politicians can be sleazy, but I don’t think in the magnitude it suggests.
[202] Even he can’t be wrong all the time
211.
205: And stopping the 2005 Election being a whitewash for the Tories, and this year’s Locals being as bad as last year’s for the Lib Dems.
200 URW - I believe the filter will reject posts which contain words with any number of betting/gaming connotations. IIRC R0ulette is just one example.
I’ll ignore some of the more juvenile and gloating posts from the Tories (and their tartan cousins) as Crewe was clearly a very good result for them and they should enjoy it. They’ve had a long, long wait for the taste of a by-election victory and they should savour every moment of it.
I think Mike’s call is a fair one, but I think there are two factors which make the next election unlike the any previous ones.
Firstly - the Tories are coming from much, much further back than in either 1970 or 1979. I’m not sure there is any historical precedent for a party woth less than 200 seats getting an overall majority in one go.
Secondly - despite Tory claims to the contrary - the Lib Dem vote held up. In the series of by elections the Tories won in the 1970s, the Lib Dem vote collapsed and they were often pushed below the far right. The rule always used to be that the Libs were brought down with Labour when the country started turning to the right. It didn’t happen in 2005 and it didn’t really happen last night.
SSI - agree with you on RedFlump posting and would add Jonathan’s and Roger’s postings - good to have Labour posters looking at what they think is needed.
I’m not sure though that refreshment can happen in office - best case would be first term spent consolidating power, putting in place the manifesto pledges and planning the second term; second term is about radical change, accepted then because the mere fact of winning a re-election has changed the public mood ; third term is imbedding reform, dealing with the unforeseen consequences and the grind of government. Then a new Government is needed, a new leader & cabinet to effect change, recover the mistakes and start the next cycle.
Governments are tired by then, ministers worn out and institutionalised (by which I mean they have become bureaucrats). They “know” what is possible, they “know” how hard it is to change things, they look at bureaucratic solutions, at constitutions and laws rather than try to win arguments and convince. It isn’t the environment for radical thought, for open debate, for floating ideas (partly because if the Government floats anything it is leapt upon as “Government intends to….”)
O/T Just to repeat my earlier query - can anyone find the link(s) to the Veep markets on Betfair please?
Thanks,Peter.I can’t get my head around that kind of nonesense so just keep on reading the book.
I appear shortly before the chapter on gamblers anonymous !
An hour ago, URW thought we should sell labour seats in the ’short term’. Half an hour later, he thought we should buy. Might be worth letting 24 hours go by….
Its usually right to assume markets that over-react; the temptation is to buy @ 230. But why should anybody vote labour now, except for tribal reasons? ‘An end to boom and bust’…thanks, a winning attitude and slogan. At long last, the penny is dropping about GB’s competence in the treasury.
There is lots of ‘advice’ being given to the govt, here and elsewhere. The govt seems unlikely to take any of it. But if they did, surely nothing on offer will change the atmosphere, the zeitgeist?
I’m increasingly feeling that there’ll need a ’strong buy’ signal from MS or Jan for me to close my sell of Labour seats now.
127. Gemma did very badly in the election and came last by 5 votes denying me a 5/4 win on the candidate to come last! Considering the amount of free publicity she has had, including the front page of the most popular tabloid newspaper in the country, to muster a mere 113 votes is very disappointing. Still she’s a real sweety.
On Brown, it’s fairly straightforward. Sadly he has to go and go quickly to give us any chance of recovery. Spinning the wheel on the leadership will not be sufficient to make us competitive at the next election - there needs to be a clear agenda too about how to win and to explain why we would be better than Cameron’s Conservatives to run the country. That rules out all those in the soggy middle of the party like Jack Straw. If we can’t come up with that, then we may as well keep Brown, but we will deserve to lose.
215. Dan, no offence, but that isn’t a good enough excuse. That you ‘weren’t behind the far right’ as you sometimes were in the 1970s is a bit of a weird comment. Back then you were the plain old Liberals, a party whose time had come and gone. You could fit all Liberal MPs into a single taxi.
Nowadays the Liberal Democrats have 60+ seats in the Commons and make a huge play of being by election giants. To marginally lose vote share is a very big blow for your party.
Sorry, but that’s just how it is.
The opinion polls showed how the Conservatives gained momentum as the campaign proceeded - from 4 to 8 to 13 and then to the night itself with a 19 percent lead. It shows decisively just how disastrous Labour’s campaign was - and also how professional and dedicated the Tories were. Labour were on course to lose for sure -but losing so catastrophically has turned this unarguably into a turning point. Also just looking at stats isn’t sufficient. In 1991 Labour was led by Neil Kinnock. In 1995 they were led by Blair. Is Cameron Kinnock or Blair? I know how I and most people would answer that one. How do you quantify that factor?
Scotland subsidises the rest of the UK . We make 28 billion a year through oil tax revnues from oil. It is a total lie that scotland is subsidised you english thieves.
217-Just go to ‘All Markets-politics-USA-2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
There are three markets available.Will quote you any prices you need.
217. Yes it’s under Politics, U.S., Next Vice President/Democrat Vice President candidate/Republican Vice President candidate. It’s not possible to give a link to those markets since the menu bar doesn’t alter the url.
re 215. why should the starting point in terms of seats have any impact whatsoever Dan? I cannot see the justification.
If the electorate is dividing in a particular way in terms of votes then the seat allocation will follow. What you are suggesting is that there will be a massive Labour incumbency effect. I don’t see it. The tide has turned against Labour and voters will choose which ever party is best to boot them out.
THE BLAME
———-
I think Paul Linford had it right on his blog a few days ago when he said the blame for this debacle belongs with Tony Blair — for not going early enough, before 2005. Gordon would have won an election against Michael Howard, probably more convincingly than Tony did. Thus emboldened, he would have been a good PM. What has happened is very sad.
One of Parkinson’s Laws: “The truth is that the age of retirement should not be related in any way to the man whose retirement we are considering. It is successor we have to watch; the man (Y) destined to replace X when the latter retires … For Y, thwarted in his ambition by X’s still retaining control, enters different stages in his career, the Age of Frustration, the Age of Jealousy, the Age of Resignation, the Age of Oblivion. When X at last retires, Y is quite unfit to take his place, being neow resigned (after years of frustration and jealousy) to a career of mediocrity.
The more outstanding X has proved to be, the more hopeless is the task of replacing him. Those nearest in seniority are already too old and have been subordinate for too long. all they can do is block the way for someone junior; a task in which they certainly will not fail. No competenet successor will appear for years, until some crisis has brought a new leader to the fore.”
So — yes, the Labour party failed in its nerve to remove its leader.
But the failure was three or four years ago, and the leader was Tony Blair.
[221] I doubt there were many seats in the land where the Lib Dems would have relished a by-election less than C&N. I don’t think the result tells us anything about them one way or the other. A loss of vote share in Henley, on the other hand…
210 - Don’t know - most of them are plausible but also unfair. It is quite possible a lot of Congressmen are defending lawsuits - America is quite litigious and many of the lawsuits probably have no merit. Seven being arrested for fraud (presumably tax matters) doesn’t mean they did anything wrong. Quite possible a dozen or so were busted for cannabis use as students in the 1970s. A lot have been entrepreneurs and there is no great shame in an entrepreneur having a bankrupt business at some point - it’s the risk you take (although how you are meant to “indirectly” bankrupt a business is unclear). Some look highly dubious though - drunk driving and spouse abuse in particular.
All this camapign shows is that the upper class media have got rods stucj up their buttocks. crwere people have got rod stuck up their cuttocks.
The tories made jokes about labour being scottish or the leader only having one eye, but we cannot make jokes about the tories goiung to pubglic school as the mostof the media did.
The tory con man claim was a joke about CONservative party but the tory butters claimed labour was saying he was conn artist. Crere people were brainwashed by the eliteist media
I agree with those who say we shuld junk ID cards and the 42 day thing. Expensive and pointless.
The ceiling of NI should be abolished and taxation at 50% should be levied on those over £100k. Tax the non-doms at the UK rate that everyone else pays, or tell them to leave if they don’t like it.
Use ALL this money to increase tax thresholds for everyone - removing millions of low-paid and pensioners from taxation all together. Practically everyone would benefit from this - it should be strictly REVENUE NEUTRAL - the tax raised should be spent on this relief.
222 - there was something about Kinnock that was just pure electoral poison. There just isn’t the same kind of indefinable unacceptability about Cameron - the next GE will not be a re-run of 1992.
(BTW, Martin Day, if you’re out there….just don’t).
219 david kendrick- It’s my job !
All the scope in the world for being with LAB at the right price(that should be highlighted) and the only reason for being against WAS short term reaction.
It took me half an hour to realise that wasn’t going to happen.
Morning all,
Congratulations to all the Tories, i think you deserved to win, Labour’s campaign was disgusting.
I agree with Mike, it’s got to be a Conservative majority next time barring a major upset. It also looks as though they’re heading for a 1997 style landslide. In my mind this is because Labour have seemingly systematically alienated every single part of their core vote. ID cards and the Iraq war did for GMW, immigration and 10p tax did for Working Class voters and public sector pay cuts alienated public sector workers. Primarily Labour need to regain these voters, before they can build a coalition to actually win again. Along with renewing the activist base and the party machine, it should be their primary objective in opposition.
The problem is not with Brown, but with everything Brown has come to represent, arrogance, spin and being hopelessly out of touch. As well as the Labour party being riven by internal splits and government by “wrong-footing the tories”. If labour change leader it needs to be with someone “new” and “clean” not blairite or brownite.
230- Are you a Grauniad sub-editor?
230 - You come dangerously close to echoing Berthold Brecht when he said: “Some party hack decreed that the people had lost the government’s confidence and could only regain it with redoubled effort. If that is the case, would it not be be simpler, if the government simply dissolved the people and elected another?”
Quite illuminating listening to Harriet Harman on Today this a.m. She couldn’t give anything at all in response to “how are you going to make people’s lives better / help them out ” . it was pretty shocking performance coming from a cabinet minister, evasive, shifty, nothing to say. Basically in response to what they could do about fuel prices (like cut tax) she mumbled something about trying to increase the world’s oil suppply. The fact she ommitted to say they’d do anything is an admission that they have run out of money - surely cutting fuel duty even just a little would be a popular thing to do at this time. People are being badly affected and fuel is 75% tax.
She also mentioned vaguely something about trying to control the price of food but then changed the subject when challenged asto how this could happen - it was obvious it was something she had just made up on the spot with no thought or back up.
263 - Yes, clearly the people of this country are selfish ingrates and don’t know what’s good for them!
221/226 - it’s not an excuse. I’m simply stating that in the 70s with a small and weak Liberal Party - it got crushed in the pro Tory tide in the run up to 1979. I don’t think that there is much evidence from the locals or Crewe that the Lib Dems are going to be reduced to a handful of seats - even Jack’s ARSE had them on 30+ in the dark days of Ming.
I don’t agree that there is some mechanistic national vote share that imposes itself on local constituencies - the causal effect is the other way round. National vote share is made up of the aggregate of 630+ local campaigns. All politics is local and Lib Dems (at least) should understand this.
Crewe was won on the ground by the Tories - with an effective organisation and the best candidate.
216 Thanks Ted. Whilst the current situation for Labour is if anything worse than it currently appears, Labour’s secret weapon is the rich group of supporters picked up during the 90s and 00s. There is still a lot of potential that the party is not really using.
When are the bookies going to pay out?
Come on William Hill, Ladbrokes Betfair
231. Taxing Non-doms in such a way can be counterproductive and often very unfair to the Non-doms. They should be made to contribute a bit more to the country, but I’m not sure treating them exactly the same as full citizens is the right move.
I think people should really compare and contrast the speech from Cameron with the PM’s interview. It shows why I think Brown cannot beat Cameron. Cameron fizzy and upbeat, Brown was leaden and in full bulldozer mode.
223 Are you an SSP supporter/member or on the left wing of the SNP. Perhaps a Scottish Labour supporter who wants independence?
231. I think the non-doms thing is mostly a red herring. The money they are talking about is being earnt abroad, by foreigners. They can and will leave at the first sign of a tax bill anyway.
What a Lab government should be looking at (cos noone else will fix it!) is the number of already-rich people who set up front companies to pay themselves mostly in share options. The tax benefits are offensive to reason.
224,225 Many thanks Guys - I’ve now cracked it! I think I must have been on “My Markets”, although I did try several times - Grrh!
242. There are some clear anomalies in the tax system though. Non-doms don’t pay stamp-duty for one thing which gives them an unfair advantage over locals in the property market.
215
Dan,do you agree with the comments of Tim Brake on the BBC by -election special last night,that coming third was a good result for the Lib Dems?
OK, I think the best strategy for Labour is to call the general election now (for the end of June) Get the defeat out of the way, remove Brown and get the blood letting over and done with. Then unite around a new leader and watch the Conservatives having to deal with a probable recession in 2009.
Anybody think that would have merit?
172. Always interesting to read the views of American reporters on British affairs. Sometimes distance lends a perspective unavailable close up.
Also, reminded by the ad on the right of the great days of 2000. HBO are broadcasting ‘Recount’, the story of the 2000 Florida Hanging Chads debacle - I wonder if someone will show it over here. [N.B. The producers needed to hire two British actors to play senior US politicos, Baker and Christopher. I suppose that's payback for Renee Zellwegger and Gwyneth Paltrow.]
243, where was Brown’s interview?
Wasn’t with Marr in the heart of the bunker, perchance?
I understand why Mike Smithson makes his prediction, but am not persuaded that the Labour defeats of 1970 and 1979 were inevitable - in both cases bad timing probably played a part.
Personally I find it difficult to believe that the Winter of Discontent was not worth - at the very least - a 2% swing to the Tories , which would imply that an election held in Autumn 78 would surely have denied Thatcher a majority.
As far as 1970 is concerned, it is often forgotten that without the Ulster Unionists - who then took the Tory whip - Heath’s majority would only have been 15.It is also likely that had Wilson called the election for a week earlier - June 11th rather than 18th - so avoiding the poor trade figures , Labour would have done a fair bit better.
Fighting a by election campaign on a core vote strategy might work if you expect turnout to be 35-40%. But the eventual turnout was nearly 60%.
The swingvoters appear to have come out in force and abandoned Labour. If they forget the toff nonsense and start focusing on issues they might begin to rebuild some support.
249 - maybe best for Labour, maybe not. They would certainly lose in June, whether some seismic event can change things and save them in the next two years… it doesn’t look likely at the moment, but then again last September Cameron was being written off, by November/December things had changed dramatically
It won’t happen though. McBean has spent so long lusting for the top job that he’ll stay there until the last possible second, May/June 2010
249. I completely agree.
227 Yes I think there is a lot of truth in this. I’m not sure that Brown would have proved a good PM though, even at an earlier stage. It’s just as likely he could have proved a disaster after he had won an early election.
But this hypothetical talk does not help us get out of the position we are in now - and we can only do that if Brown goes.
251 - It was at a hospital. Not the best of venues methinks. He kept bashing away about economy. I think he doesn’t realise that he is no longer Chancellor.
Nick P ,you seem a decent bloke.
Any chance that you may “cross the floor” ?
Morning.
Well done Red Flump. 88 looks certain to be post of the thread.
The scale of the Tory vote in C&N and in London justifies Mike’s piece. But I do think the analysis relies a bit too much on history and not enough on the economy. If it was a few cock-ups and spreading ‘fed-upness’ with Lab but a strong economic position, it might be recoverable to a draw at the GE.
It’s not as if it’s not as if the middle ground has decided on a new direction, as they did in 79 and 97. It’s more about desire for a change of management - which the economic woes are going to underpin.
253 A Core vote strategy? Er. Why fight a seat with a strategy that has a side effect of fortifying your oppositions core to an even greater extent than your own. It was totally and utterly daft.
It was a core vote strategy, for the Tories!
A good result for the Tories. Bad result for Labour. The LDs were squeezed, and will be disappointed with that, but they were in a distant 3rd place and it could have been worse. At least their vote mostly held up.
I disagree with Mike’s proposition that this means a majority, that suggests this is like 1997 rather than 1992. I actually agree with Nick P here, this seems more like 1992 to me. Therefore I still think we are in hung parliament territory.
The problem for the Tories is when you look at the actual seats that are required to get over that majority. Many of those seats are still currently hopeless cases. Although if there was an election right now they could be won, the reality is that Brown has had a stinker of a couple of months, but I do expect that to improve slightly.
Ultimately it will depend on how the economy behaves over the next 2 years. If it stays in turmoil and house prices drop significantly, then we are in Tory majority. However, if the credit crunch eases and a recovery starts, we will be back in hung parliament territory.
215. Well Dan you’re not exactly setting the bar very high for your party now, are you? Last night saving your deposit was positive, and today it’s ‘not being reduced to a handful of seats’.
Fun as it would be to see the Lib Dems reduced to a taxi load of MPs again, it’s neither likely nor is it necessary from a Tory perspective. We’ll happily settle for 20-30 net Lib Dem losses next time round, thanks.
249 - I agree that if I were a Labour supporter, I would be quite happy with a narrow defeat at the next General Election (it may turn out like 1992 to be a good one to lose). But an election now wouldn’t yield a narrow defeat but a heavy one so I would favour replacing Brown first, then a quick election. I do not agree that there would be massive blood-letting in the face of a narrow defeat. If anything it would calm nerves and to be honest, Labour isn’t as ideologically split as Major’s Tories in 1997.
re 258 - presume a joke. And not a bad one, given Nick’s perilous position.
If not a joke, you really, really don’t have a clue about Labour MPs.
francis No I am a labour supporter but that does mean I should support extreme english facist lies that scotland is subsidised have you seen the oil price and it will get more.
265 - The least you could do in these difficult times is punctuate, dear boy. One must have standards.
249 Absolutely in Labour’s best interests - but it ain’t going to happen.
266 whats the point
266, assuming Brown doesn’t start taxing colons.
Could cause problems for Jack’s ARSE.
266. How would punctuation help that posting?
Advice from an old forum hand re 265.
DON’T FEED THE TROLL !!
RedFlump. I have postgradaute qualifications. So I need no lectures from an oaf like you. English is not the only degree at university. Whay are you called redflunmp. Are you emabarassed at your small penis.
269 - if he placed a surcharge on emoticons, he might yet be able to turn it round.
URW OK we will ignore you then.
271- The problem is that he doesn’t seem to go away, even if every poster ignores him…
My crumb of comfort this morning is the encouraging signs on turnout. OK it’s lots of people turning out to turn out Lab - but at least that’s how it is happening rather than equally big swings on ever lower turnouts. ’twas the same in London.
227.”I think Paul Linford had it right on his blog a few days ago when he said the blame for this debacle belongs with Tony Blair — for not going early enough, before 2005. Gordon would have won an election against Michael Howard, probably more convincingly than Tony did. Thus emboldened, he would have been a good PM. What has happened is very sad.”
I don’t buy that scenario, if Gordon Brown had the qualities to be a good PM he would have been emboldened by his honeymoon bounce/Blair dead cat bounce to go to the polls last Autumn to win his own mandate. He did not have the courage to put himself up for a leadership or a GE campaign last year. Now you can say that he has been unlucky with the timing of his premiership during a Labour period in government. But then so was John Major and he managed to win a GE.
No, you have to make your own luck as well. Thatcher, Major, Blair and Cameron all did that by throwing their hat in the ring of a leadership contest in their party and winning. Before 1975, how many people in the UK thought that they would have a female PM before the end of the decade?
And that is also why Blair, not Brown became leader of the Labour party after the untimely death of John Smith. Brown did not even contest the leadership because it did not look as if he would win.
Thatcher, Major and Cameron made a different decision…..
So lets not blame Tony Blair for Gordon Brown’s shortcomings when it comes to political courage, its the one trait that Blair had that I can admire during his career as Labour leader and PM.
Clearly the late by-election results has affected the body clock of our dear Creatures.
Anyway, punctuation is so bourgeois, don’t you think? It conjures up images of Lynne Truss and ejaculating pandas.
272 - Clearly, our centres of learning are not what they were……
The tory leader said before the council elections the voters should give a good kicking to the pm. The PM lost an eye after being kicked in the head in rugby match. Why does no one see this as the true sign of nasty party.
274-I didn’t realise you were a committee.I will hastily withdraw from the fray.
I agree with the poster above who said that the real blame for the current state of NuLab lies with Blair, who clung on way past his sell-by date.
Those suggesting that Brown be replaced are missing the point: the problem is with the brand of New Labour now. People are finally sick of the spin and the managerial lack of imagination. The Labour Party has gone totally native in Westminster. It is the civil service running the show now, as can be seen from crap managerial policies like ID cards.
Chaning leader doesnt solve the problems. Milliband would get ripped to pieces by Cameron. The idea of Milburn leading is a total joke - guaranteed to be worse than Brown! Figures like Denham couldnt command loyalty. They only viable leader is Straw, and there is no reason to suspect he could improve Labour’s situation, since he is not exactly a charismatic leader who the public like.
Labour’s best hope is for Brown to steady the ship, and go down like the captain, in the hope of getting a hung parliament. He can then give way to a new leader during a period of Tory minority government,
261 I think the difference between 1992 and 1997 scenarios comes down largely to Brown himself. With him it’s 1997. Without him it could easily be 1992.
“Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the party.”
The good sense and calm rationality of Jonathan, RedFlump and Nick P MP on a day that must be very tough for them suggests that the Labour Party retains a core that can be built upon.
As someone who took 1997 as a signal to commit to rebuilding Conservatism, standing and winning as a local councillor, standing and losing as a PPC, working all the hours in many elections with little reward, I would suggest you keep the faith. [Oh, and try to make sure people like dirty e socialist are marginalised.]
Enjoy Kevin “Toff basher” Maguire’s pain here
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/maguire/2008/05/browns-crewe-cut.html#comments
Chris(from Paris) Why don’t you go away you pub bore.
HenryG Why pub bore.
RedFlump Jealous of my superior edcuation grow up tory bore.
281. that’s a b-i-g stretch…nice try though
279. It’s not just punctuation though, is it? There’s grammar, spelling and syntax as well…
RedFlump can go flump himself off as far as i am concenred. Beared twat.
re 283 agree with some of that but certainly not that Milliband would be ripped up by Cameron. No way - far closer than that.
However, yes, Brown going down like captain would be my prescription. Until recently I thought he would, now strong doubts.
289. Since when were sentaces ened with 3 full stops LOL you cocked up again.
“European observers have long associated the low level of civic culture in this country with the English obsession with the “semi”. It is noteworthy how rarely the words “suburban” and “civilisation” appear in the same sentence.”
John Betjeman certainly associated suburbia with civilisation. And if you look these twenties and thirties semis in Metroland in detail, you’ll realise he was right.
261. Er, the Conservatives have just won their 165th target seat with a 17% swing and nearly an 8,000 majority. This idea that the seats the Tories need to win to form a majority are out of reach has clearly been disproven. Its over for Labour. The writing is on the wal.l
John Reid is the only serious candidate to replace the PM. He would rip the tory leader to shreds. The PM shopuld be using terrorism to show what a bunch of traitoress scum the tories are.
New thread - C&N: what were you saying five weeks ago?
There is a new favourite on the “leaders for next GE” on betfair
“CAMERON ONLY”
239 Dan I agree that LD incumbency and local party strength will retain seats - saw that in the locals this and last year.
However I noticed in October that Osborne’s IHT proposal seemed to hit the LD vote share pretty hard - my take because IMHO the fall out from the non-election rightly hit Labour but it shouldn’t have hit the LD share. So I assume something at the Tory conference attracted LD voters to the Tories and IHT was the big thing. If you look across LD seats they are disproportionally in well off areas so IHT is probably more of a concern.
So LD voters are open to the right policies that impact their personal income/family wealth.
277 Let me put it more pithily. An important job of a political leader is to groom a successor. Blair destabilised his successor — probably intentionally.
Gordon’s 10 per cent tax debacle was motivated by the desire to win a leadership election. If Blair had gone before 2005, and endorsed Gordon wholeheartedly, then the 10 per cent debacle need not have happened.
Gordon may or may not have proved a good PM if he had won an election in his own right — we’ll never know now. But, I feel sorry for him, as I think his shortcomings (all politicians have shortcomings) have been cruelly exposed by what has happened.
290 - My dear, I can cope with being called a tw*t, an oaf, of having a small penis and all the rest. But don’t you DARE call me a Tory!!!
And this is the first time anyone I have ever met has abused me with the word “beared”. Is that “like a bear” or a mangled version of “bearded”. Either way, quite surreal!
Back on thread - I fear that Gordon does not have the mettle or the “touch” to be a successful PM.
286.
Anybody think Kevin Maguire could have been partly responsible for encouraging Brown to go with the “toff” campaign? It would surprise me if Maguire is frequently advising Brown behind the scenes, and he’s clearly obssesed about it.
299 - You’re blaming the 10p debacle on BLAIR now?! Sheesh, I never really liked the guy but some people wont be happy till they prove he started the Great Fire of London.
“dirty european socialist” - why dont you go away? You arent welcome.
297 Ghost-I administered the last rites to Cameron Only at EVENS.
Don’t read too much into that as I also just got matched on Brown/Cameron at 2.36.
RedFlump He does have the metal. He needs John Reid as his chancellor who would kick tory buttocks back down to Eton. Who would shaelessly go for populist rheotoric on terrorims and whip the tories up like the butter beans the are. Are you an MP?
don’t feed the troll. just ignore it.
Kevin MacGuire clearly needs to be replaced. It is barmy to have run this early 70’s style anti-toff campaign in the way they did - it was like something Arthur Scargill could have dreamed up - actually on reflection he would have probably executed it with a lot more panache. Maybe Labour should recruit him to fight the GE? LOL.
Seriously, Labour set their cause back decades by acting in this way.
MBoy Why donlt you away you are not welcome. Pub bore.
265 We English are no fascists. I think the majority of Scottish revenue comes from whisky sales, but you are right oil prices are rising at the moment. The issue English people are having at the moment is the differential treatment in public sector spending across the UK where England gets the least amount of spending per head, and we have no national parliament. Westminster is the UK parliament and English matters and MPs from other parts of the UK vote on devolved matters that happen to apply to England only - they are not accountable to the English electorate so should not vote on purely English matters.
I personally don’t like getting into the ‘who subsidises who’ arguments because most companies with head offices in England or Scotland operate across the entire UK (or EU or world) so its very difficult to accurately prove how much England or Scotland contribute to UK coffers.
Most arguments about retaining the union are based on financial benefits - to me this is like a forced marriage. If the English and Scots cannot trust each other enough, there is no real union. A United Kingdom in which any home nation has to lose its identity or dignity in order to keep subjects from other states happy is not a true UK. Labour were correct to give Scotland and Wales devoled parliaments, but they should have set up an English Parliament too. Partitioning England into little regions was a deliberate act of anglophobia and anti-Englishness on the part of Labour. Gordon Brown hates England with passion and the (English) electorate sense it. For many years Scottish Labour and its unionist media attack dogs promoted a culture of stealth anglophobia in Scotland which brought about devolution, the problem is it has gone too far, and your party has now created growing and unstoppable independence movements never seen before.
Labour has destroyed the UK, so let its dismantle it by democratic and peaceful means.
299.”277 Let me put it more pithily. An important job of a political leader is to groom a successor. Blair destabilised his successor — probably intentionally.”
Sorry, the only politician that had any success at destabilising and weakening Blair during the 10 years he was PM was Gordon Brown, he did it with unfailing regularity. Gordon’s rise to the top of politics will be his downfall, he did not show loyalty, and neither did he earn it from his predecessor.
francis The PM does not hate England he married an English woman. You racist moron. Just because you hate scots it does not mean all scots hate the english. I do not, even though I have been subjected to racism form them. You a promote a culture of hating the scots with myths about scotlanf being subsidised where is your up to date evidence. It is gone with the high oil price.
ChrisDThe present PM will kick tories buttocks back to the etonian cattle market where they are bought and solf. You tories are unfiott for officed unfot for government and unfit for election,.
248/262 - I’m not setting any bar anywhere.
I actually think it was a poor result for the Lib Dems - we should have been able to make some progress, but pointing out what happened in the 70s - the last time the Tories won by-elections on this scale shows how politics has been transformed from the then two-party system.
I think Labour have got a strategy to beat the Lib Dems at by-elections - call them very quickly (indecently so) and go very negative. Their problem is that in C&N the Lib Dems were not the threat, so it backfired totally. A more measured campaign on a longer timescale would have benefitted Labour in that they would have been much more likely to lose to the Lib Dems than the snap campaign they set up.
So when the PM supported England is the rugby world cup that was anti english. Look how Thacther destoryed sacottish manufactuting depsire all the subsidies she got from scottish oil duribng her time that she was true hater of a fellow brits. A english facisy and you know it. When do we get repaid for that too. Scotland was once one of the maufacturing capitals of the planet with great inventors and skill centres. Thacther put paid ot that big time just so she could give tax cuts on the back of scottish oil to english southerners.
I thought most Scottish income came in the form of state benefits and methodone handouts?
This is NOT I repeat NOT the worse by election result under new labour.
Copied from my blog.
In Hartlepool under a good labour candidate of Ian Wright in 2004, the labour party lost 18.5% of the their vote. Yet in Crewe 2008 Labour have lost 18.9% of the their vote. So this is not even the biggest election decline under labour.
Hartlepool by-election, 2004
Party Candidate Votes
Labour Iain Wright 12,752 -18.5%
Liberal Democrat Jody Dunn 10,719 +19.2%
OK so labour won the seat but their loss of vote was bigger than Crewew.
Crewe 2008
Conservative 20,539 +16.9
Labour 12,679 –18.2
So this is the answer to a big Conservative win in a formerly stong Labour seat - to call the English and Tories fascists. LOl, i guess we can expect more talk of Mrs Thatcher and job losses as the next General Election, 20 years after she was in power, approaches.
Calling people fascists and harking back to a time any voter under 35 won’t really remember will work about as well as the Tory strategy harking back to the 1979 winter of discontent did in 1997.
People want to know about the future.
ed So more anto scottish jokes. It is like the tory labour issue. An english man makes a joke about swcotland and it funny a scot makes a joke about engnad and it is racims. A tory makes a joke about the labour and it is funny a labour man makes a joke about the tories and legal writes are issued.
Ge mma Garret did not do very well. 119 votes. I told you crewe was too ugly for her LOL.
316. No we were talking about if the present PM hates english people i just prooved what utter BS that claim is and pointed out Mrs Thactyher was far nastier to the scottish than any leader in the last 100 years. It is not about who won wins votes I was having a argument on facts. Thacther killed of a major scottish industry whuile living of oil form the country she killed. So who did more harm to any nation in the UK Thacther she killed our ecnomy on the back our our cash funding her e vil refroms.
310 Please read my post carefully - there is nothing to suggest that I am anti-Scottish. Gordon Brown only pretends to support England. PS Labour spin doctor Mr Campell admitted to be appearing to support England in football, but secretly wanted England to lose.
You will find most English nationalists are not anti-Scottish and we vehemently oppose any form of of racism. I am sorry that you have been a victim of racism in England, please report it to the authorities next time.
I just don’t think there is any point maintaining the union, it has little support across the divided UK.
PS The manufacturing base in northern England was also destroyed too, unfortunately market forces prevailed and led the destruction of our manufacturing base during the last Tory government.
Your posts prove how anglophobic Labour have become. Remember how Scottish Labour played ‘The Tories are anti-Scottish’?
francis Rubbish. What does Campbell know. He harted the PM.
The tories are anto scottish that is fact they allways will; be. How is anti english to point to the fact the tories hate scotland. like they hate most non english people./ That is simple fact and you know it. Lbaour are the only people who not be nationasltic regarsless where they are from.
321 As a Labour member, do you support the union or do you seek Scottish independence?
francis I support the union until english extremists who hate scotland get back in. Labour peoople English Wlehs or Scottish or Irish hate extreme nationalism. tories love it and are domainated by people who hate Germans, french people, irish people, yanks, spainish people and most of all the scots. Thatcher tried to kill Scotland on the back our own oil money you tories, she introduced the poll tax in our nation first and depsite it being disaster decided it was sucsess, you would do the same again because you hate scots. It is just you hate so many other people some people do no nottice.
I support the union when it is run by labour but not when it is run by tories. Because i have know even english labour are not nationalsitic scum who hate anyone who is not english.
i see we have got Mr Angry here today. Can you not just accept the Tories have won their first by election from Labour in 30 years, Labour is deeply unpopular, even amongst its own members, and that the times they are a changing, perhaps, just a little?
DES at 292 289. Since when were sentaces ened with 3 full stops LOL you cocked up again.
Just a point of information: That’s called a trailing ellipsis and is a perfectly legitimate use of English.
Andy Cooke Since when where sentacnes finnished with :. What is this, di you actually got to school. Or do you jusr randomly type in any gramar looking button you can see LOL what an oaf.
Andy Cooke . Are you tkaiking elliPSIS you tory ####
326, “Andy Cooke Since when where sentacnes finnished with :. What is this, di you actually got to school. Or do you jusr randomly type in any gramar looking button you can see LOL what an oaf.”
I’ve yet to see a sentence finish with a colon and a full stop. I’d consider that incorrect.
Ending with three dots is called an ellipsis and is an example of aposiopesis.
323 I am not a Tory, I am an English Nationalist (supporter of the English Democrats Party), and used to be a member of the Labour Party.
I would not go as far as calling the Tories anti-German, anti-French etc. Yes they are Eurosceptic but that doesn’t not make them anti-European, they are anti-EU.
I would like to see a united democratic Europe where all EU citizens can move freely and vote in each others member states elections. Unfortunately, the current EU Treaty will not permit true democracy - it is just a big brother control mechanism designed to weaken each member state, so I will vote with the europsceptics on the treaty issue.
By the way I love Europe and Europeans, and want to see more Europeans move into the UK. I am also pro-immigration and believe in diversity provided that everyone adheres to our culture. However I am against the unlimited immigration that we are suffering from at the moment as too many no areas form and ethnic ghettos taking over inner city areas.
Andy Cooke You aren a example of a aposiopenis
francis Rubbish The tories are almost allways hateful of anyone who is not english. And as a celt i do not like the idea of the tOries running this country. No cletic with common sense would vote for nationasist party that hates you, to run them.
I was obvious by the end of 97 that English tories hate us.
I am sure English tories would be devious and manipulative with the facts just as they were under Thacther, plus they would run the UK for the south only their core voters. Who would all lean back in awe as the tories wrecked cletic nations again, and again. The english tories do hate cletic nations it is the whole mindset of being a right wing in any natuion to hate other nations. :
The EU is democratic.
#189: Timpson “a shoe-in”!!! Worthy of Dr Spyn himself!
330, My word. What withering banter. How will I ever be able to respect myself again? Woe is me.
Andy Cooke You put a comma between “330, My”. for one so obbsessed with grammar why do you put a capital in the middle of a sentance. Hmm me thinks I have broken your will. LOL.
334, I am crushed. Supine beneath your frenetic abuse, I prostrate myself in despair. Surely suicide is the only way out now?
Andy Cooke porstrating youself. So that whats they cal it now. LOL.
I know banning is a last resort but cant we get rid of or block this inarticulate moron.
Its ruining an otherwise excellent thread. Very sensible and interesting comments from Labour supporters like Flump, Jonathan and others.
I agreee with the points made in several places that this is more like 97 than 92 because of the personnel. It is much more like Blair vs Major, than Major vs Kinnock.
In terms of what Broon does..at a time when the voters clearly feel we are paying too much tax, trying to put taxes up on any section of society will be fuel to the fire….I am really not sure a return to the politics of envy will play any better than the ridiculous toff strategy…its a play from yesteryear.
JH So because talk back to morons like you ia should get banned grow up. Bore. If we wanted out of touch toofs like you to tell us what to do we would ask.
JH If you are a tory why do you want get rid of the labour leader. we know you want rid of him because you fear him he was the architet who destoyed your evil tory rule and he will destroy your evil party form wrecking the uk again.
Dirty European Socialist reminds me of the policeman in “‘Allo ‘Allo”. Is he posting in English? Is he French perhaps?
It has to be said that the BBC has become a complete joke with a headline, “Tories snatch Crewe from Labour”, implying there is no democracy and we have stolen it and only done so by a tight margin! Neither the BBC or Labour get this do they? Everybody else in the country does.