You Gov: Labour at all time low
May 29th, 2008
Con 47 (+2), Lab 23 (-2) LD 18 (0)
Is the end now nigh for Gordon?
A poll by YouGov in the Telegraph shows that Labour support is at the lowest since polling began in 1943.
How much worse can things get for Brown?
Double Carpet
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An astonishing poll that validates the local election results and the by election at Crewe.
I am a very happy man tonight on the politics front. No caveats.
18% already being spun as ‘not too bad’ for the Lib Dems which on recent results may be true but still suggests that around one in five of their 2005 voters have deserted them.
And Brown reeling from rebellions on car tax, 42 days, MP’s pay and now also planning law. Then there will be the proposed expansion of nuclear power… can’t see the likes of Diane Abbott going for that one somehow …
We want our 24 frowning Gordons! Seriously, a great poll which will surely shift the betting markets?
2
Will Michael Portillo look miserable on This week?
Prof Anthony King gives his verdict:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/2050954/Labour-crisis-No-way-back-for-Gordon-Brown.html
Re-post from previous thread:
Surprisingly, Sporting’s GE Seats market remains open and so far its prices haven’t moved on the YouGov poll, their 348 mid price for Tory seats indicating a majority for the Blues of less than 50 - light years away from what this poll translates into - one or other is very wrong!
How much lower can Lab go? Seriously, everytime that there’s a new poll, I think that things cannot get worse, but they keep getting!
(A repost from me too)
I think there’s plenty of evidence the LDs lost a tranche of votes in the first year of Cameron’s leadership partly due to the Tory “love-bombing” and partly due to the botched removal of CK and the poor performance of Sir Menzies.
More recently, both the LDs and Conservatives have benefitted from the collapse in Labour support.
I’m under no illusions the LDs will lose seats next time. I hope the floor is around 30-35 seats. Yes, we will lose a number of seats to the Tories (perhaps 30) but hopefully hold those we have picked up from Labour with possibly an additional gain or two.
Unlike 1970 and 1979 when the bulk of the party’s MPs were in seats with Conservatives as the main challenger, we now have a base of ex-Labour seats which give us more possibility of surviving the Cameron avalanche.
A stronger Parliamentary base will help when the wheels fall off the Cameron bandwagon and Tory seats will be there for the taking.
3. This week isn’t on tonight as Parliament is in recess.
Cons most seats is 1.4 on betfair
4. ‘This is a dreadful poll for the Conservatives….’
4 Wow, King actually going strongly against Brown, that has to be a first, - he really must be in deep, deep trouble.
5. Just looking at it, and I’m more convinced these polls are just not as significant in moving the market in a single period as the political news.
If I took a stab at it I could see a Tory majority of anything above 70 as a worst case if the GE was called tomorrow which still nmeans the SPIN market underrates them. If it gets to an overall of 70 I’d happily sell.
8
Oh well. ! Next weeks PMQ’s is going to be interesting. What will DC choose, The scope is limitless.
7. The Lib Dems really need to be burying Labour now so they are the party left-leaners go back to when Cameron’s government loses popularity.
5 The point is that an opiniom poll in midterm is likely to be nothing like the result of a GE in 2 years time . There will be some improvement in Labour’s position before then the question is how much , Spreadfair are giving their estimate of what that recovery will be .
Stodge (from previous thread) you are one of the only Liberal Democrats I have heard from contemplating the possibility of losing seats to the Conservatives next time.
If more of your compadres were like-mindedly realistic you might yet do OK, even now if you addressed your party strategy to the real enemy - Labour- you might surprise yourselves with the gains you can make from them
Sadly most of your party are still locked in the anti-poll tax, hate Thatcher 1980’s time warp where the only enemy they are interested in attacking is blue.
It’s going to be the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade for you lot at the next election in that case, I am afraid.
7. Thats interesting as again, just looking at the seats market I thought the LDs looked a touch high at 43 with little upside risk in a sell.
7 I think you’re being a bit pessimistic - the LDs will lose seats but are they going to lose Lewes or Eastleigh or similar ‘bedded in’ Southern Seats? I doubt it - you’re not going to meet Nick Kinnock’s target but I would have thought 45-50 seats must be likely.
Mike, can we expect a few pearls of wisdom from you please this evening, especially as regards the GE Seats market?
Con : 52, Lab : 18, Lib : 18.
Wonder if it will ever happen, at this rate its looking more likely!
14 - If there is a series of polls with lib dems level with or overtaking labour then the game really is on.
What will this do for the GE date odds ? There is no mechanism for having an early election bar a vote of no confidence. 2010 now nailed on ?
20. Doubt it, Labour is in firmly core territory and there isnt much to peel off poll wise.
15 - True in part. In 1995 the polls showed that the Conservatives would be crucified. In 1997 the Conservatives were crucified by a marginally less devastating margin than the polls suggested two years previously.
I’m actually starting to feel really sorry for Brown. Imagine having to wait a decade under Blair’s shadow while you think you can do things better - then you eventually get the chance and you’re publicly vilified, with your name certain to go down in history as one of the biggest political losers ever. It would be enough to give a well-balanced person a breakdown, let alone someone like Gordon.
re 19. My “pearls of wisdom” are to stay selling Labour and buying the Tories. I’m not so sure that we will see much immediate movement because the markets seemed to have factored in the most terrible polling news for Labour.
23. It doesn’t look like Labour even has a core any more.
re 24. That was almost certainly caused by massive polling overstatement of Labour.
21.ukpaul, it would be game on. But, only if the Libdems take the battle to the Labour voters, rather than waiting for the Labour figure to drift downwards to meet their polling figures as their own voters switch straight to the Tories bypassing the Libdems altogether.
26. Wheres a good sell point though for those with Tory buys at this point?
My own is a the equivalent of a Tory majority of 70.
Things can always change but at this time thats my target to look to sell at, anyone else any thoughts?
6 You
What actual effect will Brownstuff leaving office have on the British people? If the Tory Party [Brownstuff faction] currently in office falls to a new low in the so-called opinion polls, what effect will that have on the policies of this nasty little government?
It seems to me all so much sound and fury. Politics used to be about policies. Now its all about Ugly People Beauty Contests for party leaders who all agree on 99% of policies, and therefore have to be brutal about each other. Oh to get back to the days of a socialist Labour Party and a nast right-wing Tory party a la Hilda, with some kind of wet and soppy alternative firmly [?] in the middle. Then people had a choice, now its merely a sad version of American Idle [hateful nonsense.]
Corporal [nice chap] started all this nonsense and let Tory B Liar get away with his ugly shite. It just can’t get any worse…no, it probably can and probably will.
Malcolm
re 15. How do you know Mark? Remember the golden rule -
The most accurate poll at any one time is the one that shows Labour in the least favourable position.
Thank you, David Cameron, for saving our party.
I almost can’t believe what I’m reading.
22 The only event which will prevent a 2010 GE is a new Labour leader this year or next who, unlike Brown, decides to offer himself/herself to the country.
From a damage limitation aspect, possibly not a bad plan.
34 A good plan but marginal MPs will fight it to the death.
I am surprised. I thought that 20% was possible 1 year down the line - after a series of more disasterous Labour foul ups.
What we have instead is Labour meltdown.
I see Labour going below 20% - perhaps 15%.
With Labour’s financial problems to boot, rats are scuttling off the sinking ship.
32. He’s not quite saying what you think Mike. Not that the poll is wrong, but that they don’t tend to accurately predict a GE 2 years away.
stodge at 7,
I actually think that you’re being too pessimistic on LD seats.
), I wouldn’t be too surprised to see 40-50 LD MPs returned on a General Election result such as shown by this poll.
With the tactical voting that the local elections showed (Con-Lib tactical voting in both directions) coupled with the LD’s traditional strong incumbency (as Jack W would say, once you’ve got a case of Yellow Peril, it’s a devil to shift, even with antibiotics
If we accept that LD’s often get a ~2% poll boost during the campaign (and take it from the historically very high “Others” score), then with a boost over the UNS of ~1% in close battles involving Lib Dems (which is defensible), then your losses to the Conservatives would be pretty much exactly balanced with your gains from Labour.
Which would be so balanced as to be downright elegant.
27. Oh its there. I take the view that such polls may show an eating into what I’d consider the core at this time (the core being say anywhere between 27-29% in my book) but come voting day if they are below those core numbers they are not only losing badly but facing an identity crisis.
It makes one wonder how low Labour have to go before Gordon is visited by the men in white.grey suits. Would it trigger a General election? Is there any chance of a vote of no confidence? Would it succeed? We may be uncharted territory. Anything is possible.
25. Agreed. There’s no doubt that in 2005 Brown was a vote-winner, or that Labour would have benefited then from moving slightly to the left (eg on taxation, child poverty, maybe health care). If (I’m speculating here) Brown had been able to take over in 2004 he’d have won in 2005 and could have presided over six years of solid centre-left government. Now the economic climate has turned, the Tories are in play again, Brown can’t do anything right and the party will go into opposition feeling thoroughly fed up with itself.
Brrrr!
42. I admire your bravery!
38. And, putting my yellow-tinted specs on, the ‘Lib Dems cannot win’ argument is lessened somewhat if Labour cannot win either.
“How much worse can things get for Brown?”
A lot worse.
The economic pain has really only started… and if house prices fall in total 25% (which is optimistic imo), and the pound falls, and unemployment rises, and the Government operates in a way which makes Liverpool City Council look modern and efficient, then I can see Labour on 15% and Gordon Brown’s personal ratings at a favourable 5%…
Of course things do reverse and after such steep falls some rally is to be expected… BUT … it looks, smells and acts like panic in Nos 10&11.
Panic makes a bad decision maker a terrible one.
42. At least you have transferable skills…
13. He’ll go on something against the grain, like ’starving kittens in the Belgian Congo’………
42 beat me to it. Good on you Nick. It cant be easy.
7. I think some people forget how brutal FPTP can be. That poll taken literally is Con plus 14 and LD down 5 of the last GE scores. Of course incumbency used the LD way gives added protection but such a swing would sythe through the parliamentry party.
meanwhile we seem never to quite succeed to properly insert our selves into the anti Labour narritive. If 2010 is another landslide year then we have
- signifigantly less second places against labour than we had against the tories in 1997
- we are second by much larger margins
- in 1997 we were defending a handful of seats against labour (we lost only three). there was hardly any over lap between the two then opposition parties. In 2010 the cons will be all over the vast bulk of our held seats.
I just find it rather depressing that we could well end a 13 year government with most of our resources still trained on the last government rather than the departing one.
If some one doesn’t get a grip soon 2010 will be like defending the maginot line.
36 - I really don’t think Labour will plunge much further.
So how much better do people think Labour would do with a new leader?
15. That’s as may be, but if so Spreadfair’s assumption that there won’t be an election for two years is definitely dodgy IMO.
Brown’s lost the electorate
He’s losing control of the PLP (and they’re not even in Westminster. God alone knows what they’ll get up to when they get back).
He’s on the verge of losing key Union support
Large unions are gearing up for industrial action
He’s losing those parts of the press that normally support Lab through thick and thin
His revamps and initiatives are ignored, or worse laughed at
He’s broke
And still things get worse
Conclusion - he’s gone before the summer recess.
Can a GE be far behind?
42 Nick P. Shouldn’t that be Brrroooowwwwnnnn!!!!
39 Yokel, you miss the point. The core have packed their bags and are leaving.
The people I meet, who really hate Labour, are Labour core voters.
It probably has something to do with betrayal
Re: 16 - Thanks for the kind words, Marcus. I like to think I’m a realist. I hope Kingbongo is right but I just don’t see it. Even in Cornwall the LD support for the new unitary authority is electorally very bad and while I don’t see Andrew George losing, I do think the Tories will win a majority of Cornsish seats next time.
On the wider issue, my view is that while you will win big next time, you are as incapable of understanding the new economic reality (and managing public aspirations and expectations) as the current incumbents. The economy won’t improve suddenly because you’ve been elected and my guess is that if and when the economy doesn’t recover, the electorate will start looking for someone to blame.
51. 32% say better ! I’d say about 5-7%
52
Labour cannot afford an election.
42. Nick have you gone mad.
I think I find some of your more complex posts easier to understand than that.
Still, nice to know you don’t hide away when times get tough, like a certain politician I can think of.
42. I know this is a difficult one to answer but,
Is there a sense within siginificant parts of the the party, the PLP in particular, that, despite polls showing alternatives to Brown being no better, that Gordon is part of the problem being reflected in the current party ratings?
I’ve crafted that to allow you to say yes but you are rock solid behind Brown yerself.
Feel free to try to answer without the Brownshirts coming to your door…..
33 - I think your thanks are better directed at Gordon Brown.
53.Or alternatively, “We are dooooommeed” (said in a posh Edinburgh Morningside accent.)
Only 5 points between Labour and the Lib Dems? Anyone want to to bet on that gap turning negative?
I have been thinking of the significance that this parliament will have upon British politics- and I’ve come to a few conclusions:
I cannot see Labour recovering for a generation- what’s going on now is 1990s stuff. The question is- is it even more serious and significant than that? The conversion to New Labour pulled the heart the Labour movement- no longer socialism- simply Tory-lite.
Labour has lost the confidence of it’s core vote- and I foresee a period where the left’s vote is split in such a way that it will become very hard indeed to shift the Tories from power ever again.
Labour has lost it’s membership base and this is seen in it’s terrible finance situation- if they do go bankrupt, it’ll severely hinder their chances of keeping 2010 as a respectable loss.
Now, the natural transition could very well be a shift on the left from Labour to the Lib Dems- but I do not believe that the Lib Dems have the sufficient clout to become the second party- perhaps I am wrong.
Rather, I see a situation where the nationalists hold the left vote in Scotland and Wales and the Lib Dems and Labour fight it out in England. This could very well see Labour relegated to the inner cities.
This sets up a situation where no one party will be big enough to challenge the Conservatives at a national level. It’s an interesting time for British politics- New Labour is dead- it was always going to die because it depended on natural Conservative/conservative votes. Now, the left needs to ask itself serious questions.
50. Famous last words… The economy’s barely begun to see harder times and Labour are already in dire straights. I think it can get a lot worse for them, at least in the polls.
10.18pm No sign of a mention of the poll on BBC 10pm news, but I might have missed it whilst letting the dogs out?
42. Good sportsmanship… It must be tough out there at the moment…..
57. True. But do you think they’ll be able to afford one in 2010?
What an astonishing poll! We’re now back virtually where we was with the YouGov “rogue” poll for The Sun straight after the local elections and Boris’s triupmh! Labour are surely going to be under 20% in a YouGov poll before the end of the year?
Very disappointing for the Lib-Dem’s to be dropping back. Once again we see the Lib’s support rising in April off the back of an election campaign, only to drop back again once the spotlight is off them.
So, when is PB going to give us back the Smiling Daves?
The most worrying figure for the Conservatives in the YouGov poll is the belief (quite rightly) of 72% that they are overtaxed.It will be extremely difficult for an incoming government to establish with the electorate, that the situation left by Labour is so bad that there is no room for tax reductions in the short term. We must just hope that they will be able to show some progress back to stability before another election is due.Unfortunately, one element of progress wiil have to be a reduction of public expenditure, which will mean higher unemployment.It will be a painful first three or four years.
63. In terms of “clout”, the Liberal Democrats must really be regretting they chose Clegg over Huhne right now.
50 Yes, yes, we’ve heard that before.
When I was saying Labour will head to 25-29%, (people like) you were saying the same about 30%.
Labour is in Meltdown.
32 Mike I am not arguing against your golden rule , merely that myself and Spreadfair are thinking that there will be some Labour recovery between now and the 2010 GE just as there was between 1977/1978 and the 1979 GE .
65 - We have been through this about a dozen times per poll over the last few months. The BBC editorial policy is to not highlight individual polls.
Re: 38 - I hope you’re right, Andy. I could see us polling 21-22% in 2010 quite easily as I think the Conservatives will lose a little ground once their policies come under closer scrutiny.
Re: 49 - I simply don’t accept the “you don’t attack Labour” line, YS and I’m not sure why you argue this point. In any case, Labour are doing a pretty good job of implosion/suicide. As to the Tories, why should they not be scrutinised ? They are the likely alternative Government and, as such, we have a right to know what we are going to get.
55. I am still just speechless that the LD’s are seriously, very seriously, talking up their chances in Henley On Thames.
Tories are leaving nothing to chance and flushed with success I know loads of my friends are there already - Boris is liked, everyone wants to see him bow out with a flourish.
Even if, by a Herculaean effort, the LD’s improve their vote there by a stunning margin they will still come second - is that the new logo?
Lib Dems ‘coming second here…’
Why do it? Why waste time and effort and come second? Above all, why advertise to the world that your party is still trying to pick up seats from Tories when everyone now wants the Tories to get rid of Gordon?
Tony King:
“For the first time in a generation, the Tories, not Labour, are seen as the party of economic competence.”
Pr King always said that his most reliable barometer of public opinion was the economic competence question (”If Britain were in economic difficulties, which would be the best party…”) - and now this has swung decidedly against Labour.
68 How has the LibDem support dropped back ? With Yougov it is at the same highest level that Yougov have given for 2 years .
31-Malcolm- Like the “you” thing!
“for party leaders who all agree on 99% of policies”
Well, I can assure you that this is not happening only in Britain, although I find very annoying! People make promises when they are in the opposition, that they find it’s impossible to put in practice when they are in government. There’s an old maxim here that says: “Nothing more conservative than a liberal in power. And nothing more liberal than a conservative in opposition“
73
They did mention the last You Gov on the 10pm news. I was most surprised that they did…., and this is the worst rating for Labour since records began. .. and its not newsworthy?
Re: 68 - Not sure we’re “dropping back”, GIN. Not moving forward, admittedly, but well clear of the 13-14% we were staring at a few months ago.
Re; 70 - No, Socrates, no regrets at all.
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I don’t get the logic here - you are asking ‘Is this the end for Gordon?’, but surely the only crumb of comfort for Gordon from this poll is that a majority of ‘All Voters’ don’t think their chances would improve under another leader ???
Labour’s problems are more deep-seated than GB, and are related to external forces on the economy, as well as mistakes they’ve made which they have far more control over.
I tend to agree with Tony McNulty when he says that behaving like vultures only helps their opponents. They are in a jam, but often the worst thing to do then is panic and make the situation worse.
Or am I being too naive ??
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75 Marcus. “Why do it? Why waste time and effort and come second?”
No sense of irony there Marcus ??
55.”The economy won’t improve suddenly because you’ve been elected and my guess is that if and when the economy doesn’t recover, the electorate will start looking for someone to blame.
Stodge, I think that one major consequence of having two consecutive long term governments is that its easier for the incoming government to stick the blame on the previous administration. The Labour government are still trying to put the blame on the previous Conservative one for some of the bad news even now, it is not being tolerated by the electorate anymore, but it did for a long time.
Also think that the state of the economy and voter confidence will be the key, it both are bad, then I don’t expect them to be looking for immediate miracles from a new government. Just long-term, strong, decisive and sound economic remedies to halt the rot and guide us through it. Something the electorate are not getting at the moment from the Labour incumbents.
Re; 75 - Come on, Marcus, what do you expect the LDs to do ? Do nothing and watch the Conservatives poll 65-70% of the vote ?
Of course, we’re going to fight Henley hard. I’m going there myself next week. I’m under no illusions it will be a hard fight and it will be very difficult to win but that doesn’t mean we won’t be trying.
74. It’s common political knowledge in the US that you don’t hit someone when they’re on the way up. It makes you look like you’re knee-jerk prejudiced and on the opposite side to the voters that have been seduced. You should act like you’re giving them the benefit of the doubt, and then wait for them to get into government and then lament how they didn’t fulfil their promise.
68. “Very disappointing for the Lib-Dem’s to be dropping back. Once again we see the Lib’s support rising in April off the back of an election campaign, only to drop back again once the spotlight is off them. ”
Can’t see how they’ve dropped back, 18’s about as good as the Lib Dems have got in You Gov polls for a while.
77. Labour have continued to lose support and the Lib-Dem’s rise has been halted. In net terms, I regard this as a drop back. They are not picking up any extra support from Labour’s further deteriorating(s?) position. At least not on this poll.
75 Marcus , why did the Conservatives waste time in Southall hyping up their chances to just come 3rd . It is because elections are the essence of politics and any serious party should fight them as hard as possible for the maximum possible vote . As someone who has fought and will fight an election I am surprised you cannot grasp that basic fact .
69.I agree, that is going to be a problem.
The crucial part is: “on a par with Major’s low”.
Under Major, as now, we had worsening economic problems combined with government attacks on its own supporters (and, come to think of it, official figures at odds with people’s everyday experience).
Changing the leader did not work for the Conservatives and will not work for Labour. It’s the policies that are the problem.
Re: 83 - I disagree, Chris. I think Conservative support is strong for two reasons:
1) Labour under Brown are a complete disaster.
2) Somehow it will be better under the Tories.
Now, there is absolutely no evidence for point 2) and IF things don’t improve and given the inevitable gaffes/blunders/accidents that befall all Governments, I think the electorate will rapidly turn on the Tories much as they did the last twice Conservatives took power after a period of Labour Government.
Although, I suppose compared to April’s Telegraph poll the Lib’s are UP 1%, so I’ll give you that.
Nevertheless, my impression of this is that the Lib’Dems are just bit players right now. The country wants rid of Labour and they know the only way to achieve this is to switch to the Tories. Sorry Lib’s.
70. So why didn’t the Tories pick Fox?
75. Getting worried, Marcus? Have the Tories not got any other message than “Get rid of Gordon”?
73.Even when the said poll shows a figure that puts Labour on its lowest level since polls began.
87 Conservative support is 2 points lower in this poll than it was in the Yougov Sun poll 2 polls ago , if I were to use your argument that that shows the Conservatives are slipping back I would rightly be ridiculed .
88. Mark, Nobody is suggesting you should make a good fight of Henley, what astonishes me is that your party were saying towards the end of the C&N by election’ you wait for Henley’..
You lot kept ptomising everyone you were going to win the mayoralty and got 9%, then Clegg was saying you were going to win Crewe and you were humiliated; now he is boasting that Henley is next.
The point is it makes you look silly. Delusional. I agree we made that mistake in Southall - we learned from it, you obviously haven’t.
Re; 74 - I’m NOT and LD spokesman, Socrates. I’m a voter. I’m not prepared to accept Dave Cameron’s platitudes as a substitute for substantive policy. On tax and spending, Conservative policy is muddled and flawed. I attack that because I’m deeply concerned that if the country votes in the Tories next time, it will be exchanging one very hot place for another.
63. The left in Britain died in 1979. Labour only got back into office by masquerading as a slightly pink alternative Tory party, and only stayed there because of the illusion of economic competence created by a lucky external environment and the one sensible decision they have made - making the BoE independent.
Now that the economic mirage is vanishing, there is nothing left of ‘New’ Labour, and there is certainly no stomach for a return to ‘old’ Labour as C&N showed….so Labour’s support is evaporating.
We may be headed for a US-style two party system made up of the Tories and a vaguely ‘liberal’ opposition formed out the wreckage of Labour and the increasingly irrelevant Lib Dems. But a long period of Tory hegemony looks assured.
75. Of course the Tories are going to win, but for the Lib Dems fighting by-elections hard is very important for internal morale if nothing else. What’s the other option? Just roll over and not try? Part of trying to get some of the voters deserting Labour has to be in convincing people who don’t like the Conservatives that the Lib Dems are prepared to take the debate to Cameron (not sure how achievable that is, but that’s another issue).
I’d also dispute that the Tories are ‘leaving nothing to chance’. They took a long time getting into gear - Fran Yeoman wrote a piece in the Times a few weeks back about how the Tories hadn’t got going while the LD’s had set up their HQ etc…
Of course, having said that, not a chance the Tories won’t win.
88 Mark Senior
Would you expect Labour to go all out in Henley ?
Or would you think they might take a low profile and not be too dissapointed if the Labour vote in Henley (14% last time) migrated to the Lib Dems and caused an upset for the Tories?
Re: 92 - And when people realise the mistake they’ve paid in choosing Cameron and Osborne, they’ll always have us to turn to
Re: 96 - I never heard anyone from the LDs say we were going to win the mayoralty, Marcus, but come on, this is politics. Would you go and help or support a campaign if the only message you ever heard was “we’re not going to win” ! Would you have gone to Ealing on the basis that Tony Lit might have finished second ?
5 & 12. I agree that polls like this overstate the Tory majority, but equally Sporting’s seats markets appear to understate it. In other words, there may still be value in buying Tory seats or - as Mike prefers - selling Labour. A lot of the value went before C&N, however, when I described Ladbrokes 1/2 on Cons ‘most seats at the next general election’ as the “bet of the decade…” It’s 1/3 now, and shortening….
96 and were not the Conservatives hyping up their chances in Southall and saying they were in with a chance of winning did bnot the ressult just show your party as silly and delusional .
In all honesty, given Labour’s plight, you’d expect the Liberal Democrats to be gaining some of the anti-Labour vote. As I’ve said, the New Labour project was based on natural Conservative voters and this is in part, a natural swing back- except- even then, why aren’t the disillusioned voters on the left switching to the Lib Dems? Perhaps they are but it is neutralised by voters moving from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives- a closer look is in order. I also think that the Lib Dems are losing out on the anti-Labour vote in Wales and Scotland to the nationalists. The bottom line is- they should be doing better considering the circumstances.
102 Then put your money where your belief is and bet on you being right and Spreadfair wrong .
105. I have! (On Sporting rather than Spreadfair…)
104. I think that’s right. The LD vote looks fairly static (bit of a post-Clegg improvement, but nothing dramatic). But in terms of who those LD supporters are I bet there’s been massive churn.
96. I wasn’t involved in Crewe, but I was involved in East Dunbartonshire at the GE in 2005. The Tory campaign there was saying they were going to win it.
I know this topic was discussed recently, but I am really curious about the Labour debt situation. If I read the situation correctly, it looks like Labour’s traditional sources are, for a variety of reasons, running away from them at the very moment they are most in need of financial help.
1) Does anybody have a clue how Labour will fix this situation, at least to the extent of kicking the can down the road?
2) Will Labour be forced to go, hat in hand, to the unions as their most traditional and reliable source of funding, who will in turn demand a sharp swerve to the left on labour issues at the worst possible time in return for the money that will keep Brown out of debtor’s prison (*sarcasm*)?
74,
And playing with numbers a bit more [Peter Snow mode "Just a bit of fun, just a bit of fun"] I can construct a scenario where the LDs overtake the Labour Party in terms of seats when they overtake them in terms of vote share.
Scenario requires:
1 - Labour metldown in Scotland (losing 10+ seats to SNP)
2 - Anti-Labour tactical voting on directly comparable scale to 97/01 anti-Tory tactical voting
3 - Lib Dem mean boost above UNS of 1% in seats where they are incumbent or reasonable challenger (at cost of increased variance around mean)
4 - Lib Dems draw level with Labour at 23% each with Tories on 47% (As per this poll with 5% transferred from “others” to LDs). Note that as the Tory vote share drops, Labour benefit disproportionately, so a high Tory score increases the chance of Labour falling below the LDs.
If all of those were to occur, there would be a real chance that the Leader of the Opposition would be Clegg!
(Albeit against a PM with a bigger majority than anyone since MacDonald’s National Government)
104 Comres , ICM and Populus all show a comparison in their detailed poll data of how people voted in 2005 and how they say they will vote now , they all show LibDems losing some voters to the Conservatives and gaining a similar number of voters from Labour . It is a great pity that Yougov do not ask a similar question .
98-Completely agree EWR- though I think had John Smith not died his government would have been recognisably old Labour- though social democratic Labour.
The two party system could very well be on the cards- though I think that the potential conflicts between the Social Democrats and the Liberals would cripple it for a good while- but as I see it, it’s the only way there’ll be a credible left force. Of course, I think a lot of Labour would rather join the Conservatives than get into bed with the Lib Dems.
“Labour’s lowest score under Foot was only 23.5″
Not quite. The ASL poll in The Sun on 9 June 1983 put Labour on 23%.
OT - QT - Pickles = Prescott II. A poor public speaker.
95.So versus You Gov Sun poll pre Crewe Tories are -2%,Labour Nil,Lib +1%.
Versus You Gov Telegraph Con +2%,Lab -2%,Lib No change
In a way surprising that Crewe victory hasn’t produced a bigger swing.
If the Lib Dems rose above Lab ratings,without the Tories staying the same the electoral arithmetic wouldbe a huge tory landslide.
rogerh
90: Major’s low point was with the economy actually improving slightly, from the mid 90s onwards. The economy now is heading majorly down the pan, suggesting Labour will do worse than 1997’s result in reverse (44:31%).
It’s hard to see a way back for Labour, things have turned so far and so fast.
Very little on pb.com today about house prices, but they are heading down at warp speed, which will only make it worse for Gordenron. Little chance of recovery before a general election, more like GE 2014 in fact, so where can I bet on 2 tory terms?!
102. The seats market is understating it as things stand.
Im way too heavily invested in the Tories in the longer term, however, to increase my involement in the various GE markets including the spreads to any big extent (also my Tory GE winner prices included some comparatively fancy prices). I did buy into the seats market a bit before C&N believing the likely result would have more of an impact than the polls. It could have more per point but I dont feel happy laying out more than I have comitted overall to the Tories. Its a fair amount to tie up for something thats maybe 2 years away.
The plan here was a quick kill; buy, watch the seats shift, sell, get out. I’m hanging in a bit longer now though before selling as I think the Tory seats market is only going one way for a while. I dont plan to hold it for a long time though.
No LD on question time tonight - how long before no Labour bod on QT ?
110. I’d take that Andy. Now we just need to ensure that the Tories win 47% of the vote, and concentrate it in the Midlands and south-east marginals.
68: “Very disappointing for the Lib-Dem’s to be dropping back. Once again we see the Lib’s support rising in April off the back of an election campaign, only to drop back again once the spotlight is off them.”
And again, not quite
YouGov April ratings for the Liberal Democrats: 17 and 17.
YouGov May ratings for the Liberal Democrats (in order): 17, 18 and 18
That’d forward, not back.
119 - Just how many seats do the Conservatives want ;)!
120 - Well within margin of error. Just to be devils advocate!
91, stodge,
On the “voters rapidly turning on the Tories” front, I’d tend to disagree.
Firstly, Cameron’s learned from both the Heath experience and the Thatcher experience, and seen from Blair - and further back to a Conservative analogue, Churchill - how to avoid it: Don’t make huge waves straight off.
Secondly, the “Blame it on the last lot” meme should have a decent amount of long-lasting traction, given the long and painful death throes of the current Government (Assuming that Brown staggers on to 2010)
110. You have to hand it to the Lib Dems, I must say. Their party is failing catastrophically - Labour’s support has collapsed over the last six months and they have not benefited AT ALL from this. Their much vaunted byelection machine failed totally in Crewe, their mayoral candidate in London achieved a fringe party level of support.
Yet still they fantasise about pulling off a byelection win in Henley and replacing Labour as the official opposition. Some even trawl through the accounts of obscure Conservative Associations trying to prove to themselves that the Orange Jerusalem is at hand.
The level of denial is staggering. Even if they were to lose all their seats at the next GE, it seems likely they would still be able to spin it as a success story.
I am not blaming Liberal Democrats for talking up their chances - we all do that to a lesser or greater degree.
Their spin has been suggesting that the reason their performance in Crewe was poor was because they were putting effort into Henley.
I think this is a catastrophic error on two counts:
1) In choosing to target Henley in preference to targeting Crewe they are continuing to promote themselves as an opposition to the Conservatives rather than being an opposition to Labour.
2) They will lose badly in Henley
As I pointed out at my post at 1, the Lib Dem vote *has* fallen back, by a fifth since 2005 - at least; their ongoing anti-Tory strategy has been failing since the Conservatives became popular again.
And what gives me great confidence is that so many of their activists either can’t see it, or *can* see it but can’t help themselves - bashing the Tories is what they went into politics for.
124,
I’m not a Lib Dem, yp. I’m a Tory with an unhealthy fascination with numbers and statistics.
91.”1) Labour under Brown are a complete disaster.
2) Somehow it will be better under the Tories.
Now, there is absolutely no evidence for point 2)”
Stodge, the voters want strong leadership and credible policies whatever the economic situation. That is something that I do remember from the last Tory meltdown pre 97, apart from the sheer staleness of 18 years in office. We did not get it from the latter part of Major’s period in government, and we are not getting it now from Brown. I think that is the biggest lesson of Mrs Thatchers period in office.
I know that its simplistic to couch it in the terms I did on the last thread, but the electorate see the Conservatives as the party to administer the horrible tasting medicine when its required, while Labour gives them the sugar cube to get rid of the nasty taste.
Remember Blair admitting that they let expectations run too high, I don’t think that Cameron/Osborne will do that, simple because the economy that they will be gifted will be on the critical list rather than one making a healthy recovery.
Re 124 “Their party is failing catastrophically - Labour’s support has collapsed over the last six months and they have not benefited AT ALL from this.”
And for the third time, not quite
Take YouGov six months ago and today for example: the Liberal Democrats are up 4% compared with the November Daily Telegraph YouGov poll.
120. Borrowing Labour slogans now Mark?
118. Yes, the Green Party do seem to have a very effective press office - they got far more coverage during the London elections than their support would merit. I suppose the BBC wanted someone with a different view on the price of fuel to generate some debate.
125. “In choosing to target Henley in preference to targeting Crewe they are continuing to promote themselves as an opposition to the Conservatives rather than being an opposition to Labour.”
I think the problem with that is that the LDs have to be an opposition to the Tories as well - they’re fighting Tories in lots of seats and need to pick up voters fed up with Labour but who also can’t bring themselves to vote Tory.
And I’m really not sure they did target Henley instead of Crewe, any Lib Dem claiming that they did is making excuses.
124- You mentioned how the LD’s haven’t benefited at all from the Labour collapse. As an outsider, it seems that the LD’s fatal strategic flaw may be in primarily targeting the Conservatives for criticism rather than Labour (and it seems to me from reading the papers as well as your comments that the LD’s are generally perceived as more hostile to the Tories than they are to Labour). As such, they are competing for the ever-shrinking “anti-Tory” vote and, while they have been holding their share of that vote, there is less and less of a Labour share of that vote to fight for. Instead, it seems to me they should be trying to compete for the “anti-Labour” vote, an ever-increasing pool, by training their guns primarily on Labour.
114. I disagree. Prescott was useless at everything, Pickles is a man of great ability. He seemed to have done a first rate job (with the help of Dimbleby) of deflecting Geoff buffHoon’s challenge as to what they would do in terms of taxation. The audience most certainly against the Hoon.
Further to 110, and bearing in mind the commentators to this thread:
Even with the enhanced LD score (+5% on the current poll) and the LD incumbency boost postulated, it would forecast a Conservative MP for Torbay in 88% of runs.
131. Isn’t it possible that the disintegration of the Labour base could help the Lib Dems in some Tory-held seats? As in, it becomes easier to put on the squeeze, or argue that only the Lib Dems can prevent a Tory government? (This isn’t meant to be straw-clutching; it’s a serious argument though I recognize it might be a very limited phenomenon.)
135. Not sure many voters want to prevent a tory govt..
These polls are now getting ridiculous. The figures are completely exaggerated.
I simply do not believe there are STILL 1 in four people prepared to say they will vote Labour. 24% my Cornish tush.
Who are these idiots? They’re lying. I think Labour’s true support is about 15%.
133 I agree that the audience are so on-side he can’t say anything wrong, even if the words aren’t in the right order. Maybe that’s harsh - he’s a bit better than prezza at speaking, but not much.
Dan Snow makes me want to vomit. How can someone of his generation be such right-on leftie? He’s live from the age of 20 to 30 under this gov’t and he still promotes their policies. I guess he’s ensconced in a liberal world and knows what kind of person’s going to commission his next programme.
136. I do. A solid period of Tory minority, with a Lib majority keeping it on its toes, would I think be very attractive to much of the country.
If polls remain like this, the Lib Dems should revert to their 1983 copybook (though with the advantage that this time they only have one leader and one set of policies) and declare that Labour can’t win the election. The Tories are on course to form a government, but only the Lib Dems can keep Cameron clean.
111.”104 Comres , ICM and Populus all show a comparison in their detailed poll data of how people voted in 2005 and how they say they will vote now , they all show LibDems losing some voters to the Conservatives and gaining a similar number of voters from Labour . It is a great pity that Yougov do not ask a similar question .”
Mark, the problem for the Libdems in Scotland is that they are noticeable slipping since 2005. They are leaking votes to both the SNP and the Conservatives, and they are not gaining a similar amount from Labour. Their political fortunes do seem to be tied to that of the SLP up here. Simple put, soft Conservatives going to Cameron while the soft Labour vote is drifting to the SNP in this four party area.
Its also why the straight switch from both Labour and the Libdems to the Conservatives is so marked in other parts of the country.
Like Labour up here, this is your worst nightmare, a strong resurgent SNP and Conservative parties with charismatic leaders.
Now, you can spin it anyway you like, but at the moment I don’t see anything other than an SNP lite and a Tory lite strategy coming out of your party at the moment. Why vote for the pale imitation when you can vote for the real thing.
139. Sorry, that should read “large Lib party” instead of “Lib majority” in the first line.
102 But the spread markets aren’t trying to predict the result. The magnitude of the high/low is important. Even if the polls were right, unless the range and probability of potential results was perfectly symmetrical around the poll number, then the spread price for seats will not match the polling implication.
As it stands, and using the latest bookies odds the 4/6 available for Tory majority implies around 60% liklehood meaning there is a 40% likelhood that the Tories get fewer than 325 seats.
The Tory most seats is priced at 2/5 generally, which implies just over 70% probability so there is a 30% probability that the Tories don’t get most seats which puts them below 285 seats.
At a seats price of nearly 400, that would leave you with a pretty hefty downside. The upside from 400 surely can’t be that significant or likely..
If Tory most seats is 1/3 that implies 75% probability, i.e. 25% probability of Tories having fewer than about 280 seats.
If the seats market reflected the polls, and was priced at just under 400 seats, that would still leave a lot of downside risk (25% chance of losing 100+points), with not much upside potential for buyers at that level.
Anthony Wells says GB support now lower than Major at its worst.
132. As an American I assume you’re familiar with the political term ‘a flip-flopper’? (Think Mitt Romney).
The Tories are trying to trick the Lib Dems into ‘flip-flopping’ twice in the space of two years, from anti-Tory to anti-Labour and back again. There will be a general election in 2010 at the latest, which increasingly looks like a Tory win. What would the point of the Lib Dems being anti-Labour after that?
By the way, the Lib Dems do criticise Labour (when they act like Tories).
142 Ignore last paragraph.
113. Don’t forget a preview of Labour’s possible fate is on tomorrow morning on the Parliament channel…
“The 1983 general election.”
I can’t remember if there were any cameras at the declaration at Dunfermline East, where an obscure young Scotsman began a very long journey to the top of British politics….
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/42984000/jpg/_42984099_mp83_bbc406.jpg
The would be a certain symmetry if Brown went out on the wrong end of a landslide; after all, he came into politics that way….
Now many on here think the current polls herald a Labour disaster at the next GE and there will be no recovery in Labour support because the economy will go down the pan etc etc . I do not agree with this scenario I anticipate some Labour recovery in the next two years . However let us say the doomsters are correct , the effect would be some 20-30 LibDem gains from Labour at the next GE much as there were a similar number of gains from the Conservatives in 1997 on the back of the big swing to Nulab .
128. Desperate, simply desperate.
128.”Take YouGov six months ago and today for example: the Liberal Democrats are up 4% compared with the November Daily Telegraph YouGov poll.”
With the state of the present Labour government, a 4% increase is abysmal to be frank.
132.Good and sound analysis Stars and Stripes, but you can’t tell them that though. Its why they should have gone for Huhne instead of Clegg.
147. There will be some Lab recovery from their bottomed out lowest position - not sure we’ve reached that yet..
Hoon for leader.? Around a lot at the moment. Might do an Urquhart!!!
138 - How did people manage to live through Major and still be conservative? Maybe because lots of us have political beliefs that are unaffected by the competence or otherwise of governments who supposedly represent our political views.
And again the fallacy that the Labour government is left wing. If anything, the left has been repeatedly vindicated by Labours failed policies (Iraq, PFI, those ludicrous academies were all opposed by “the left” if such a thing even exists any more).
148, 149: Sorry to rain on your parade with a fact or two (again), but… compare those two YouGov polls and the Tories are +4, just as the Liberal Democrats are +4.
I guess that means you both think the Conservative performance is desparate and abysmal just like the Liberal Democrat one. Or could it be (whisper it quietly) that you’re so firm in your views that mere facts don’t matter
QT simply dire for Brown’s leadership.
147. Yes, I think we are looking at a Labour disaster. There are two reasons for Labour’s collapse: immigration and the economy.
They can’t do anything about the first - they made the problem, they then lied about it, and now they certainly can’t fix it.
As for the economy, tha’s gonna get worse before it gets better. There isn’t anywhere near enough time for the economy to improve sufficiently for the voters to forgive Brown and his pals.
So they are doomed to a drubbing. Put it another way, Labour are now hated - as I tried to explain to an unbelieving leftie on here the other day. Hatred has a tendency to linger.
FWIW I am now starting to think they will dump Brown. I’ve never believed this before… but surely no leader can sustain polls this bad. SO I now think they might replace him, but even if they do, I don’t think it will help much.
149. Stars and Stripes will also probably be confused why the Tory posters on here are so precise in their advice to the Liberal Democrats while being so vague about what electing a Conservative government will actually mean.
As a Labour member I’d say… we’re kinda stuffed. My prescription for what it’s worth is
* Probably change the leader (cosmetic really, and sad, but symbolic)
* Radically change the tax system to something more progressive and with a lot more winners than losers - let the Tories side with the rich in opposing you.
* Accept that house prices etc are only going one way, and focus on finding ways to keep down the price of basics, or blame the city. We’re post-business-friendly now, a lot of people blame city whizz-kids for the economic mess. Don’t bail them out, run against them.
* Recapitalise the economy with deficit spending but not via the banks as at present - via old fashioned ‘winners’ like alternative energy companies, public service transport, housebuilding for social rent, etc.
And then call the election, pretty quickly, in case all the above goes horribly wrong.
149. They did go for Huhne - the postie foiled ‘em !
QT:
Tony Blair = Tigger
Gordon Brown = Eeyore
144- Maybe the LD’s best strategy is indeed to “stay the course,” as you suggest, in a more far-sighted ploy to position themselves as the “real opposition” or “best opposition” to a future Tory government. I must admit that the idea of a political system including a major third party that nonetheless never participates in government (or at least not since 1918, n’est-ce pas?) is a bit strange to me. I’m not sure how a party manages to sell successfully itself at the national level, decade after decade, in spite of the common belief that they have no chance of running the country, or even influencing its governance. That’s quite an accomplishment in itself.
157 - hahaha, if only. Labour taking on rich city fat cats who’ve sold us all out. I wish. They’re hostages to them, all those loans and that.
He’s a cheery chap
147 & 150
Labour likley to bottom out after Henley when they lose their deposit…..
rogerh
156- That phenomenon, actually, seems rather straightforward!
135, Usually, the Lib Dems will already have squeezed down the Labour vote in Tory seats, leaving a defiant Labour element who won’t vote for them under any circumstances (occasionally, there is still a fair Labour vote, but won’t shift if there’s an effective local Labour Party, such as Bridgwater, or rural Suffolk) .
WRT the economic situation when the Tories win, they’ll get the benefit of the doubt for a while. Harsh cuts in public spending will be regarded as justified.
138, 152- For all his criticism, I think John Major saved the Conservative Party from utter extinction. He was a well liked leader, just people hated the Tories- this was epitomised by his Question Time appearance just prior to the 1997 GE, where someone asked: “Can’t we have you and not them?”.
The Conservatives had two redeeming features- Major’s personal popularity and the economy’s upturn. As bad as 1997 seemed, it could have been a lot worse. Without these two factors, the Conservative share of the vote could have fallen further and the result would have been either a rump of rather electorally unpallatable right wingers or two seperate parties- wets and dries.
Labour on the other hand have currently no redeeming features. The leader is unpopular and the economy is deteriorating somewhat.
166. Did Major not get more votes at the 1992 GE than Blair did in any of his wins ?
160 - Essentially they run as an all purpose, anti-tory/anti-labour party, depending on which area you’re in. If your favoured party can’t beat the party you hate, you vote Lib Dem.
Plus they like to think they’re Parliament’s conscience. Iraq’s a good example of this. They’re very willing to say “I told you so” when things go wrong. Because they probably did.
That said, I’ve voted for them twice.
138 Fair enough, you can argue that Dan Snow is man of conviction who will hold these ‘liberal’ views to end. I prefer to think that he knows which side his bread is buttered and that he’s just pandering to commissioning editors at the BBC. Those CE’s should of course be bringing through some ‘iliberal’ talent at this point in time.
Re left/right - they’re just shorthand descriptors.
165 Thatcher did not get the benefit of doubt for very long after winning the 1979 election despite having the previous Labour government to blame for everything , within 18 months the Conservatives were losing support massively and byelections heavily .
153 The Tories are up 4 from a high base: the Lib Dems up 4 from a frighteningly low base.
QT
“Gordon Brown is a great number two”
Oh yes, how right you are!!!
Thanks, Anton, at least that gives me a bit of insight into the mentality that propels the party.
152 A fair question. We took the view that it was not our beliefs that were wrong, it was the behaviour of the government that was wrong.
WRT the government, its genius has been to combine right wing rhetoric (tough on crime, tough on asylum seekers, pro-free market etc.) with left-wing reality (open door immigration, gigantic tax rises, hostility towards traditional family structures etc.) At the top level, you have the right wing sounding things. Below that, you have the left wing judges, senior police officers, civil servants and local government workers implementing what Labour really believes in.
And it worked brilliantly for 8 years. But now, as Sean T has pointed out, they find that by trying to please all, they please no one.
169 - Just because there’s a bad Labour government in power doesn’t mean that those of us who hold “liberal” or “progressive” political positions will suddenly read Edmund Burke and think “aha! of course!”.
I know liberals, I know conservatives and they’re all angry with the government. Just for different reasons.
160. It’s because, as many Americans have difficulty understanding, socialism and liberalism are historically different belief systems, based on different ideological roots, that people are loyal to. (Socialism never really developed in the US, because of the frontier culture for so much of its history, so the socialists piggyback on the edge of the liberal party). Also, in a system where parties have strong central leadership, liberals and socialists could never fit into the same party together. I couldn’t see Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee being able to be in the same party in the UK system.
160. Well, indirectly the Lib Dems have influenced the governance. For example, they once had a policy of raising income tax by 1p in the pound to spend on education. The Labour government, after rubbishing the idea, then raised National Insurance (payroll tax to you?) by 2p in the pound which rather made the policy obsolete.
A bit of history - in the 1980s the then Liberal party merged with some of the Social Democratic wing of the Labour Party to form the Liberal Democrats. Many Liberals did not join the merged party - they preferred the idea of the party being a sort of think tank for the nation to a party that actually seeks power.
147.”However let us say the doomsters are correct , the effect would be some 20-30 LibDem gains from Labour at the next GE much as there were a similar number of gains from the Conservatives in 1997 on the back of the big swing to Nulab .”
Arrggh, its not doomsters predicting this, its the voters! We have reached the tipping point and are now heading to a Labour meltdown at the next GE.
Your blinkered outlook is stunning, the Libdems do not have a divine right to pick up 20-30 seats from either the Conservatives or the Labour government when the pendulum swings from one to the other. You have to provide a reason for people to vote for you instead of the other parties, and at the moment you are not doing that. What is Labour’s core vote level? Because if we have reached it, you have gained a grand total of 4%.
153.You just do not see the problem, you had the chance of street fighting politics from Huhne which would have garnered more of the disillusioned Labour vote. Instead you went for the students politics of Clegg, its not even funny when its so transparent!
It was said on Newsnight that Gordon has taken to phoning up members of the public for “chats”…
Sounds like he’s trying to “connect” with the voters one at a time…
174. Agreed, SeanF, the Labour party has installed its liberal hatelings throughout the upper echelons of society - the awful judges, the nightmarish BBC editors, the repulsive head teachers, the ugly sneering smelly antiBritish pseudo-elite, the people who can’t believe the voters are stupid enough to elect BoJo.
The question for Cammo is: how do we get rid of these people? It’s gonna be a Herculean task. The cleansing of the stables. The sluicing of the national sewers. We want to see these liberal-left human tampons emerging at the Barking Outfall, but some of them might be difficult to dislodge.
It will take two terms, minimum.
176- So what are the great ideological divides that separate the LD’s from Labour today (i.e., if a LD true believer and a Labour true believer sit down over tea, what do they argue passionately about)? Is it a difference of style or substance? Or is it, as Anton suggests, merely a matter of an otherwise inconsequential third party that profits from a reservoir of disgust for both parties?
One of the biggest moves that the Tories could make is in changing the legal system from top to bottom.
In particular if it was possible to enshrine the concept of commonsense somehow that’d be a hell of a start.
179. Next he’ll be phoning up pollsters from random phone boxes across London, Priness Diana style, claiming to be a Brown supporter.
174 - Ignoring your slightly biased list of alleged “left wing” policies, I think you’re correct in your assessment. They’ve tried to be all things to all people. A scrap from the table for The Guardian here, something for The Sun there. The end result is pretty much everyone who voted for them now feels angry and betrayed. “I didn’t vote for this!” they think. And the result is they’re losing voters from all sections of the “big tent”. People like my own father, a member of the party for thirty years will vote Lib Dem next time. Middle England has returned firmly to the Tory fold. The working classes are slowly leaving too.
Worrying times ahead, I’d say.
Despite being a Lib Dem I am surprised at both the Tory triumphalism and the Lib Dem optimisim. No Labour posters obvious so can’t comment on them.
The Tories have not yet won and there are two years to go. I think the Labour position could be changed by Opec. I read today that they want oil prices back to $80 a barrel which would bring petrol back to below £1 a litre. Things could go right for Labour although I very much doubt they can win an election but could get back to 30% or a bit higher. The Brown brand is definitely not liked but as someone once said “its the economy, stupid - and things may be better by 2010.”
To Lib Dems I say look at where we are. DC is popular and frankly likeable. Most people don’t have a detailed knowledge of polices they have perceptions and the perception of DC is positive. Sure in some target seats for the Tories we may well hold on - even Cheltenham which would seem an easy win for the Conservatives on these figures saw Lib Dem gains on the Council, but others like Hereford and Torbay and especially places where MPS stand down may well go down. We may gain a few from Labour but only a few - as things stand today I would be ecstatic with 50 seats. But I too am going to Henley - not with rose tinted glasses but if people don’t have the ight to a choice what is the purpose of a democracy.
Having had a quick look at the Telegraph article, I’d raise the point that this is only equal to the lowest ever Labour score.
The implication of the Telegraph lines:“It is the lowest level of support for Labour since pollsters Gallup first asked people to declare their voting intention in 1943, a few months before the Battle of El Alamein.
Even under Michael Foot support for the party never dipped below 23.5 points.” … is that we’ve never seen a score for Labour as low as 23% before.
But we did. Rather recently, as a matter of fact (Con 49, Lab 23, LD 17)
It seems to me that many posters here did not see the literature put out by the Liberal Democrats in the C&N byelection.
This was very heavily directed against Labour in general, and Brown in particular.
I suspect that if they had really gone for the Tories to the same extent, the so-called Tory triumph would have been considerably reduced.
I think its fair to say the people of Lincoln (based on tonights QT) have well and truely turned against Labour! I can’t remember such a generally hostile reception for Labour on QT for many years.
181. Theoretically a Labour party supporter should care more about social justice and poverty, while a Liberal should care more about liberty. That theory isn’t always justified by the facts.
178 Chris as I have said I am not convinced that the tipping point has been reached . If you had been around in 1977 you would have said the same thing and and there was a substantial Labour recovery from the rock bottom of 1977 . The LibDems are providing an alternative to Labour and reason for people to vote LibDem in many areas successfully such as Newcastle Hull and Sheffield . These are the areas in which the LibDems will gain the 25-30 seats should your tipping point having been reached proves to be correct .
178 Chris as I have said I am not convinced that the tipping point has been reached . If you had been around in 1977 you would have said the same thing and there was a substantial Labour recovery from the rock bottom of 1977 . The LibDems are providing an alternative to Labour and reason for people to vote LibDem in many areas successfully such as Newcastle Hull and Sheffield . These are the areas in which the LibDems will gain the 25-30 seats should your tipping point having been reached proves to be correct .
181. Their behaviour over the referendum showed they are not serious about real politics. The LDS are the sad childhood gonk sitting at the end of the electoral coed’s bed, as she has sex with new boyfriend the Tories.
I hope Labour and the LDs both disappear, as they should, because no one likes them. Then we can be left with endless Tory government ineffectually opposed by UKIP, the Greens, and Salmond in Scotland.
That’s the way ahead for Britain. That’s what the British, who are basically right wing, verging on National Socialist, really want.
180 - brilliant! They could have some kind of House of Commons Un-British Activities Committee.
Or, for those of us who are clinically sane, we’d baulk at the idea of hounding people out of their jobs because of their (alleged) political beliefs.
181. How long have you got? One key divide would be over social benefits - Socialists would favour means-tested benefits but Liberals would favour universal benefits (coupled with a progressive tax system).
169 Most people aren’t rock solid in their beliefs - they don’t write them down at 16 and stick by them till they die - people amend their beliefs about what’s right and wrong to fit the moment. They amend them when they see that what they previously believed to be right, was in fact wrong. It’s all about learning lessons.
A current example is how to deal with knife crime. Everyone I’ve spoken to, no matter where they started on your left-right axis, has become more iliberal. No one is saying, ‘let him off with a caution’. Everyone is saying bang em up. The only debate is about how many years.
180 It won’t be easy by any means. I think much can be achieved by shutting down a lot of the quangos that were mentioned earlier, together with the Local Government Standards Board, and the Equality and Human Rights Commission. The HRA ought to go, plus things like targets for ethnic minority employment across the public sector. Other than that, the left wing Chief Constables etc. will just have to let go when their contracts expire.
12 - Yokel, I’ll offer you a ton that the Tories win a majority higher than 70 at the next general election.
180. There is certainly a massive programme of de-Labourisation necessary in BBC, the legal system, the civil service and NHS. In addition, there needs to be a winding up of government-funded quangos which have become stuffed full of Labour lickspittles over the last decade. It’s a big job - but also essential to prevent a Tory government being obstructed constantly by this fifth column.
192 - oh now COME ON. You’re not real. Tell me you’re not real? No-one wants a permanent one party government except the delusional. No-one reckons the British are, as a homogeneous mass, “basically right wing verging on national socialist”.
188 - I’m fairly sure the reaction to the government is fairly hostile like that every week. It’s the way QT works.
190. People go on and on about the Labour in the 1970’s, but the fact is, that was mainly down to Jim Callaghan being a popular figure in an otherwise terrible time for Labour. Do honestly believe Gordon Brown will ever be as popular as Jim Callaghan?
Sometimes Mark, your desperation to paint things in the best possible light for Labour, because of your total and irrational loathing of the Tories, damages your credability. Just like you kept saying the local elections wouldn’t be that bad for Labour and the way you kept using a handful of weekly local by elections to claim that the Conservtatives were not doing as well as they should be. I think you allow your personal prejudacies to cloud your judgement at times.
160. Well, they very nearly didn’t make it. They were reduced to just 5 MPs in the 1950s, representing seats in the most far-flung reaches of the UK…
Interestingly though, the number of people who answer Yes to the question “Would you vote Lib/Dem if you thought they could win?” has remained fairly static since 1950, at about 40%…
Problem is, due to the evenly spread nature of their vote and the
FPTP electoral system, the LibDems need to get about 35% of the vote just to become the second largest party in terms of seats…
To achieve that would require total collapse of one of the big two, combined with extraordinary weakness in the other; an unlikely scenario…
190 The Tories were certainly doing better in 1977, across Labour’s heartlands, then they are today. The problem for Labour is that Labour were also doing better across their heartlands, then, than they are today.
198 - and how do we go ahead with this program of “de-labourisation”. Dig up Senator Joe McCarthy? You people essentially want a witch hunt.
Just when I got some decent political discussion out of this place you come out with this. Seriously, right wing fantasists can go and find their own place to exchange their fevered dreams of who’ll be first against the wall when they seize power. Leave the adults to talk serious politics here, ok?
193. Who gives a fig what you think? The problem with this country IS the liberal elite. The Guardianistas. They are the tapeworms in the colon of the body politic. Get rid.
Only then can we begin to solve the problems of the country: when we have a judiciary, police service, educational establishment, etc etc, which is untainted by the bizarre beliefs of this tiny and repellent minority which reads “the Guardian”.
193. I dont think you understand the gravity of the situation, the institutions of this nation are stuffed to the gills with labour party members and sympathisers. The centralisation of power means that Chief Constables, ACPO, the national trust, the bbc, the nhs regional boards, the regional assemblies, university boards are all brimming over with party sympathisers.
It is corruption of society on a grand scale.
181. Well, things have got hazy these days because the Labour party split in two in the 80s, with the moderate part of it joining the Liberal party. Then, faced with electoral oblivion, Labour became New Labour and leapfrogged the Lib Dems into the centre, so it’s all about murky. These latest polls suggest that murkiness could have some profound implications for left politics in the UK, so who knows what splits and mergers we’ll have in future, or whether three party politics is viable any more.
Labour has a much more collectivist belief in the power of the central state to help protect the vulnerable, so it brings in things like central targets, ID cards and databases, and (historically) nationalised industries etc, which a Lib Dem would find abhorrent. Liberals believe much more in individualist freedoms, and would be more willing to support open immigration and environmentalism, that the traditional working core of Labour is uncomfortable with.
205. Are there actually enough Labour party members to stuff anything to the gills? I don’t think someone’s political beliefs means they are unsuitable for a job. Surely it should be based on merit?
191.Mark, I simple think that the tipping point for this government under Gordon Brown has been reached and passed. What it means for a future GE is less clear, especially as I don’t think that Brown will be leading the Labour party at that point.
Do I expect to see the swing to the Conservatives down South being matched in Scotland, in a word no. I think that there will be a marked improvement in their position, but it will be smaller not just because we are starting from a much lower base, but simple because the 4 party system will not allow anything else.
You have a few Libdem MP’s North of the border as well, and for the first time in many years I see the Libdems slipping, and this seems to be down to the fact that they do not seem to be benefiting from Labour’s decline.
A recurring question here and wider is whether replacing Brown would make any difference? The key figures that I read from the YouGov poll about the electors views are:
Getting rid of Brown
32% GOOD IDEA
8 % BAD IDEA,
52% no difference
8% don’t know.
So 1 in 3 voters say Brown should go. Only 1 in 12 say he is an asset. Four times as many, who think his leadership matters, think he should go.
200 GIN I am old enough to remember many occassions when governments both Labour and Conservative looked dead and buried in midterm 1962/1968/1972-3/1977/1981/1990 for example in every case the government made a substantial recovery from mid term lows not necessarily a good enough recovery to win but certainly to avoid what at the time appeared to be a fortcoming disaster .
206. Although on ID cards in the late 1990’s the Tories proposed ID cards and Labour ran against them, Blair called them a waste of money and said he would use the money to put Bobby’s on the beat. He went native in government.
Fairness and accuracy in reporting, analysis of media coverage of McCain. Highlights some issues the dems may run on, as well as just being interesting:
http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=3369
197
David
If yokel doesn’t take you up on the tory maj over 70 bet I would be glad to.
205 - No! The lefties haven’t infiltrated the National Trus have they?!
It all makes sense now I think about it though. Last week I went to visit my local stately home and it’d been converted into a mosque for the exclusive use of wheelchair bound black l*sbi*n single mothers, all paid for with the money they raise in fines from speed cameras! It’s an outrage!
16 - Marcus, that’s a little unfair. I think we’re well aware of the fact we have several seats which are very vulnerable to the Tories. I’m sure we will lose some, it stands to reason. Even in this scenario, of us getting staying at last GE’s level and the Tories adding 12% to their vote, we are in some trouble. Even if we do especially well in our areas (up 3%) and the Tories don’t do as well (only up 6%). That still translates into some LibDem loses such as Devon west, Guildford, Romsey, Sollihul, Somerton and Frome, and maybe even Taunton. You are right that there are a good 15 seats (glasgow north, aberdeen south, two in edinburgh, Bradford east, Blaydon, Islington south etc) which we can take from Labour. Worry not, we will concentrate on these and take as many as possible. The lib dems are not being complacent about the 2010 election.
207 You can see it on local councils. Why is it that Conservative local councils often implement left wing policies (unless they’re tough-minded like Wandsworth, Bromley, or Hammersmith & Fulham?) Partly, because many such policies are mandated by Central Government, but often because most councillors are much less intelligent than their senior local government officers, who work to their own (left-wing) agenda.
At the highest level, an incoming Conservative government needs people who are prepared to work with it, not obstruct it.
204 - and really seanT, who gives a fig what you think? I’m the leftie here, I’m the one whose allies (apparently) run everything in this country. You’re just a crazy right winger ranting on the internets. Nothing you say matters.
Sorry.
207. Ruling elites dont need to be numerically large. The Normans completely ruled over us with about 5000 men.
This hasnt happened by accident, it is deliberate, it started when Blair took office. His landslide victory made him exceptionally powerful, far more then any other prime minister.
The most important words in the English language became “Tony would like”. To feed this it became necessary to endear yourself to the court of King Tony (or endear yourself to someone who is already endeared to the court of King Tony).
Look at the police force, the rank and file are probably the most Conservative group of people you could ever meet (old style hang em and flog em), yet the senior officers are in many cases so vomit inducing right on that even the Guardian take the piss out of them.
Progression in the Police Force became dependent on pleasing the Court. This process became formalised with the target led culture.
Targets are a way to make sure that supposedly independent (but publicly funded) organisations carry out the Governments agenda. There is no independence of the Crown and Government, they are now one in the same.
Its nothing more than an illustrative excercise but lets compare these new You Gov figures with the 2005 GE.
Lab -13 Con + 14 LD -5
With two years to go anything could happen it just seems crystal clear to me that the public mood has shifted. Labour voters aren’t spraying protests across a range of parties. Ex labour voters are coleasing around the clear alternative in a FPTP system.
Anyone who wants a share of the post labour spoils or prevent a Conservative landslide has to (a) adapt to the new climate (b) find a way of changing it. however (c) pretending that it isn’t happening is just absurd.
@ 43 and 42 - so do I.
203. No, you don’t understand. This is precisely what we need to do. We need to get rid of the Labour Baathists. They are a disease. A fungus. A clammy little mould. How can you cure the country’s ills if you don’t get rid of the Guardian-reading cancer eating away at the core?
I think we should possibly make it illegal to be a Labour supporter and have any role whatsoever in public life. No more Labour BBC bigwigs, no more odious liberal-left judges preventing us from deporting S0malian mass murderers coz they might be forced to eat pork scratchings if they go back to Mogadishu.
The country is changing. Everyone wants to move on. We need to bury this government and get Riverdance to do a gig on the grave. Then we can return to a Tory government which is the only right and proper government of the UK, as even lefties now admit.
I’ve just been working on the constituency profile for Brigg and Goole. I think I made it clear that Ian Cawsey is in trouble but this poll suggests he should just forget his job and start looking for a new one.
In all seriousness, I think the 1992 parliament was one of the best for good government because discipline was needed and the result was that in 1997 the country was probably in the best state it ever had been.
A 200 seat Tory majority would not be good for parliamentary democracy and I URGE Labour and/or Lib Dems to sort themselves out for the good of the country.
Remember, I’m a member of the Conservative party saying this. I admit if I was in Thatcher’s cabinet I would be sacked for saying it but it is true. Landslides are BAD for democracy.
If Gordon Brown remains PM he could actually destroy the Labour party based on the way the polls and his policies are going. The country needs a genuine opposition so either the sensible New Labour people join the Lib Dems or they get hold of the party and put someone in charge who is not a complete liability.
If Brown is allowed to continue then Labour could lose almost all their seats. Who will vote for him after two more years of this?
210. But, that doesn’t mean Labour will make that substantial recovery. Look, I’m not saying Labour won’t recover, just that theres no automatic guarantee that they will. Pattern matching in politics is a bit like pattern matching in the weather.
Like saying that because this May has been very warm, that means the coming summer will be hot, because past years with warm May’s have had hot summers. Well, perhaps statisitcally thats true, but the fact is, each situation is differant.
We’ve never had a Labour government in power for this long. We’ve never had Gordon Brown leading the Labour government, nor David Cameron leading the Tories. We’ve never had the devolved situation we’ve got now, with Labour on their back foot in Wales and Scotland. We have to go back to the 1920’s to find the Liberals defending the number of seats they are currently defeanding. You see what I’m saying? Just because something happened in the past, the circumstances here are unique and nobody, it seems to me, can guarantee whats going to happen.
Perhaps the most important thing to look at in 1983. Labour polled 27% with an unpopular leader. Is that Labour’s core vote? Has Labour’s core vote ever been tested? We know the Tories core vote is around 30%, but what about Labour’s?
213 - First dibs to Yokel but if he doesn’t take me up my email is daveroedj@hotmail.com to confirm the bet. Give Yokel until 2am.
196/211 - indeed.
I remember Margaret Thatcher calling for a ‘bonfire of the Quangos’ in 1979 before setting up more than ever before.
I have no trust for Tory or labour politicians who claim in opposition to return power to the people. Once they’ve pulled their own lever of power, they find the experience just too enjoyable.
If the Tories win a majority I expect that Mr Davies will be first in line for and ID card…
210 - A bankrupt Labour government have never come back from this far behind to win. And never will.
72 191
Prior to the Winter of Discontent of Jan/Feb79 the Callaghan Government’s period of acute unpopularity was actually limited to the period Autumn 76 - Summer 77. By the time of the party conference season 77 the Tories were only 2% ahead in the polls - and this broadly remained the position throughout 1978 except Sept/Oct when Labour took a clear lead! I do think your caution to Tory enthusiasts is well founded - Labour would almost certainly have done better at any time in 1978 than eventually did in May 79.
I also think there is a fair bit of wishful thinking on this site regarding the likely impact of a change in leadership. It is worth remembering that when Major took over from Thatcher at the end of 1990 the Tories went from being 20% behind Labour to 8% ahead!
Thanks, MTF, Gaz and Socrates! People are friendly as usual in Broxtowe (though obviously a 20% national Tory lead would harvest them Broxtowe too), so it’s not that tough really. Not sure why Frank at 58 thinks post 42 mad, though. The poll is unwelcome news, and there’s not much more to be said from where I’m sitting. Yuck, if you prefer.
Yokel at 59: I think the most widespread PLP view is that we’ve run into a perfect storm at the moment, and suddenly assailing the captain (or indeed suddenly doing anything else drastic) isn’t a sensible response: it’d look panicky rather than responsive. Also, as I’ve said before, it’s easy to underestimate how much MPs just get drawn into the daily work - they’re aware of the polls, but there’s N meeting to go to, N-squared letters to answer, etc., so it’s quite easy to get into a ‘oh well, on with the job’ frame of mind. Glancing at last week’s diary I see 23 meetings and committee sessions, and that’s nothing unusual.
The probable Winchester by-election would balance Henley nicely
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4029211.ece
213. Paul M. If I have understood the terms of the bet correctly, David Roe is offering £100 at Evens that the Tories win a majority higher than 70 at the next GE? So 360 Seats+ ? Yokel I think has implied he would consider being a layer of Tory seats at this level? If you think the bet is value, wouldn’t you do better buying Tory seats on the spread, currently 345-352 on Spreadfair?
I may have misunderstood one of you? Or one of you may have misspoke?
179 - If by that you mean Labour voters, it shouldn’t take him very long!
Don’t know if someone posted but:
“Unions in secret meetings with Tory envoy”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/29/tradeunions.conservatives
210. In many of the years mentioned with mid term problems, there was either an intellectual under pinning of the government policies or else the PM was considered (whether rightly or wrongly) to be head and shoulders above the leader of the opposition. Even then there was a change of government in the first 4 periods quoted.
The trouble for Labour at the moment is that it is all at sea intellectually, witness the continuing U-turns, whilst Cameron is perceived to be better than Brown. Until they overcome both these problems at least, the chance of a recovery is somewhat diminished.
222. Dude, this is rubbish. Thatcher had massive majorities in 83 and 87 and it allowed her to work her wonders on the economy. Could she dhave rammed through privatisation if she’d has a majority of, say, 14?
There’s a lot of things wrong with Britain right now: from crime to immigration to multiculturalism to tax to public spending waste to Europe. You ain’t gonna fix all those with a slender majority.
Happily, the way things are going the Tory majority will be VAST, thanks to Gordo.
216. There is a problem with people who are abusing public office to further a political agenda. But to say that you should let “left wing constables go” is very strange. It smacks of a one party state. If someone is willing and able to put their political beliefs aside when they take office then their should be no reason whatsoever for firing them.
232. LOL! The Unions are clearly sensing which the wind is blowing!
223. And what proportion of the 1983 Labour core vote has gone to the “Wheeltappers and Shunters Club” in the sky?
Probably a third or so, I should think..
Leaving about 18%
228 - As always, nice to hear from you, Nick. I understand how you have meetings and constituency work to be getting on with but eventually your colleagues in the 100-strong (200 maybe) Labour group who stand to lose under Gordon Brown will actually start to wonder if the Great Helmsman needs to be replaced?
In all honesty, another month of poll results from all the pollsters showing Labour continuing to fall down the toilet must get you all thinking about replacing the Leader for the good of the country, never mind the party!
221. In essence, what we need is an updated version of one of those Old Testament Kings who “did Right in the sight of the Lord”, purging and cleansing the Land, after the People had gone whoring after false gods under his predecessor.
233. Thank you. Much more eloquantly put than I managed.
235 I mean, don’t reappoint (people like Sir Ian Blair) when their contracts run out. One doesn’t have to sack.
238. I suspect a lot of MPs, back in their constituencies are getting a hard time from their activists.
236-So it seems! That’s quite amazing!
234 - There is a hell of a difference between a majority of 50 and one of 200. Do you really want a one-party state?
110 - following on from your just for fun it’d be a bit difficult. If you put 47, 23, 23 as the share of the vote give 10 tactical voting toward LD from both Cons and Lab and had a huge tactical vote against labour of 6 from Lib Dem voters and gave the SNP ten labour seats in scotland then Clegg would be leader of the oppo. But this scenario is highly unlikely. I can only see the libs getting more seats than labour with the vote going 47,22,25 and the libs doing particularly well in marginals and the SNP and PC performing well in scotland and wales. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t bet on it, just yet.
227 Its easy to forget the Thatcher took over a party that in 1974 had led the country into the three day week, miners strike, power cuts plus the oil price shock & inflation. Memories of that were a lot fresher in 1979 than the Black Wednesday is today which makes her election victory quite a feat - the change of leadership to her and Ted Heath’s animosity helped put a break between her and that 1974 failure. Helped of course by Callaghan’s Winter of Discontent.
Another example of a successful leadership change resulting in a turn round in party fortunes.
239. The conservatives should reappoint him or not based on merit. Not on his views whether they are left or right.
239. Brilliant.
216, 235. I have worked in local government for the best part of forty years, God help me, and for most of that time nearly all the senior officers I have come into contact with have been left/liberal, in many cases very left indeed. Many have openly admitted that they intended to ignore or twist policies that they disagreed with, and to progress their own agenda no matter what the elected members decided.
225. Was the term ‘quango’ even used in 1979?
Can you all keep this up for the next two years?
Haven’t you got real lives?
Malcolm - never attempting popularity
139 - not a bad strategy at all. It might even work post election with labour in meltdown and the libs able to express a coherent vision as opposed to confusion and “centrism” (whatever that means) from the alliance.
251. Yes. No. Welcome to Geekdom!
235. I sincerely think what we have now is close to a one-party state. The upper echelons of public life - the judiciary, the BBC, the police, the quangos, etc etc - are utterly dominated by a Tranzi liberal elite whose odious multicultural values and absurd europhile narcissism is totally at odds with the opinions and beliefs of the people at large.
For example: maybe 50% of the people want the death penalty. Not a single major political party supports this, and you will never hear the death penalty being espoused by a senior public figure.
Or take zero immigration. That’s what most people want, yet no one dares say it, let alone proselytise it.
At least a third of the county wants to quit the EU altogether - but where is this view represented in the media?
And so on and so forth. I’m not saying these views are correct, nor do I necessarily agree with them , however I believe they need to be heard and represented in the public realm. British democracy is suffering a terrible disconnent between voters and leaders, hence the widespread disenchantment with politics as a whole.
The Tories must change this. And that means shifting the public discourse of politics several miles to the right - so as to better match the feelings of the people. So as to restore faith and interest in politics.
We can’t do this with all those horrible lefty scumbags in all the positions of power. They must be purged.
The Winchester story became public in Novemeber and hasn’t moved on. All we can assume is that he hasn’t had a better offer in the last 7 months. All he is really achieving by spouting off is (a) bad publicity for him self if he continues to be unable to find a job. (b) bad publicity for the party (c) extra tory resources thrown at it just in case.
FWIW this poll shows the Tories defeating Diane Abbott in Hackney.
228/238. Nick Palmer/David Roe. Nick I suspect that your busy timetable probably shields you from the reality on the ground. As a loyal member of the PLP you probably hesitate to ask your electorate whether Brown’s leadership is an issue? You tell us that on the doorstep it’s not an issue commonly raised. Do you actually ask? Experienced politicians do not ask questions when they fear or expect an unfavourable answer.
Geoff Hoon was asked on QT tonight whether he felt Brown’s leadership was in peril. He opined that it wasn’t. He reported that he had watched the telly over the weekend for evidence of an emerging backbench rebellion against Brown and it hadn’t emerged.
Unbelievable! All is well. Hoon’s got his ear to the ground!
Just noticed from Anthony Wells’s site that Gordon Browns is now the most unpopular PM in our history (or certainly since polling records started being kept)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1216#comment-407674
It took John Major four years and a general election victory to reach this level of personal unpopularity. Brown has managed it in just 10 months!
Its truely astonoshing just what an appalling PM Gordon Brown has been. Amazing!
254. Cameron has learnt this. People want to feel good about themselves. They may think nasty, but they don’t want to think of themselves as nasty. So while they express hatred of immigrants they don’t want to think of themselves as someone who hates immigrants. A lot of politics is about identity.
239 Oh Fearsome One
Christ was the first socialist, so as is usually the case with kings/leaders God’s will we be ignored [evidence 99% of the Old Testament]and the rich will make merry at the expense of the poor.
Pretty Boy Dave, Brownstuff [and most of the current nauseous crew] and The Man Who was Never Elected being interchangeable would all fit well in my scenario. I guess we’ll need a new prophet [Tony Benn having tired of the nonsense of running the UK] and the newcomer will probably be thrown in with the lions or hung on a tree somewhere in the Home Counties.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
Malcolm
seanT is NOT real. No-one is that mad in real life.
Seriously mate, let the adults talk politics. The fact that you think it should be illegal to both support the labour party and hold a publicly funded job marks you out as being completely barking. As such, no-one should even bother engaging with you. It’s simply not worth it.
(Actually, there’s an interesting point to be made here, mainly based around my “right wing self-created victimhood” theory. Free marketeers on the economic right run all major corporations, the media is overwhelmingly socially conservative and we have a government that’s more committed to the free market than Margaret Thatcher but a couple of “politically correct” police constables and some right-on quangos mean conservatives under siege? I’m sorry, what?)
By-election Result in from Chard
PATRIOTS STUN RIVALS BY POLLING OVER 17% IN LEAFY MARKET TOWN
http://www.bnp.org.uk/2008/05/the-quiet-revolution-reaches-rural-south-somerset/
*Note to Mr Fear - No playing down the Patriots result in Friday’s column.
222 - yes David. Calling all sensible Labour types to abandon the sinking ship and help make the Lib Dems a serious opposition to the future Conservative Government. MacShane, Milburn, Field, you’re all welcome.
Haha! He used the word “purge”! I suggest you do this purging at night Sean. And use long knives.
259. This is very true. What I suspect most people want is a pretty hard right wing government - genuinely tough on criminals, illegal immigrants, Europe, etc etc - but one that pretends to be “nice”, so the voters don’t feel guilty voting for it.
This of course is the opposite of what Labour is - a government which pretends to be hard but is actually, as Sean Fear says, appallingly lax, lefty and gay when it comes to many of the tough issues - allowing mass immigration, paying doctors £4m an hour etc.
So Cameron’s task is to keep up the image of niceness and friendliness, but let his minions go out and do the necessary dirty work - closing hospitals, barracking the poor, ridiculing gypsies, and making Polly Toynbee iron my shirts in public.
261. The BBC has a larger media foot print then all the other mainstream media outlets put together, it is in the words of its former political editor, and recent fellatior of the PM put it:
“The BBC is not impartial or neutral. It’s a publicly funded, urban organisation with an abnormally large number of young people, ethnic minorities and gay people. It has a liberal bias not so much a party-political bias. It is better expressed as a cultural liberal bias”
260- unlike as Tony Benn would have you believe, Christ was not the first socialist. Now- I’m guessing what you said may have been designed to be inflammatory out of humour- but just to put a point across: Christ encouraged charity- not redistribution of wealth. Unbelievably to some- one can believe in social responsibility without being socialist or on the left.
That said, I don’t think it’s right to consider Christ’s message in any political context.
@262:
Why do the BNP keep refering to themselves as patriots?
Since when does harassing blacks, gays and muslims count as a defining feature of patriotism?
265. No. You misunderstood me. If the Conservatives behave nasty they won’t last very long either. Look at ID cards a “nasty” policy. A majority tell pollsters they want them. But Labour propose them and Conservatives oppose them and the Conservatives are winning massively in the polls. What the public tells a pollster it wants and what it really wants are different things.
Will anybody be recording tomorrow’s BBC Parliament coverage of the 1983 election and then putting some of it on YouTube? Theres a disappointing amount of general election coverage on YouTune right now, so, if anybody feels inclined, it would be great for those of us not yet in the digital age, to be able to see some of Labour’s 83 meltdown again!
269. Well then you are talking total crap.
The British people want to see violent criminals locked up basically forever. Blair and Brown keep promising to do this but do they really mean it?
The trouble with Labour is that, they can talk as tough as they like, but their heart isn’t in it - and the voters have wised up to the fact. Labour are pathetic wetwipes on crime and immigration and multiculturalism and patriotism and all that, and they always will be. As these issues are now very important, and trust for Labour has run out, support is swinging to the Tories.
It’s like the Tories promising to be really supportive of the NHS or whatever, for a while the voters may tolerate the lie, and even half-heartedly believe it, but if anything goes wrong the innate suspicion of the Tories as being anti-NHS poshos will re-emerge.
Where you are correct is that voters now want the appearance of a nice caring compassionate leader (if not the reality). That’s where Cameron scores. He is the velvet gauntlet hiding the iron fist. Unlike Brown, who is the palsied hand hidden in an embarrassing Marigold washing up glove.
268 - That’s the BNP idiots’ version of patriotism.
242/257: Gaz, I don’t think so. Why would activists give me a hard time over bad national opinion polls? It’s not happening, anyway - we’re a battle-hardened team and we don’t waste time beating each other up.
stjohn: you’re certainly right that meetings and so on are a distraction from angst - that was the point I was making too. On the doorstep and in phone canvassing (we’re just doing a few hundred contacts a week at the moment as there’s literature to get out), we normally ask first about current issues, then about voting intention, and if they say they’re thinking of switching we ask why. We don’t probe the views of people whose intentions are the same as before.
At the moment, switchers from Labour are all, almost without exception, about fuel, food and tax - Gordon Brown is very rarely mentioned. FWIW, the personal vote (”I’ll never forget how you helped my budgerigar” etc.) seems to be still solid and even rising slightly because of local issues, but obviously winning will require an improved national situation.
271 - Sean. Do you ever disagree with someone without saying they are talking rubbish? It does make you seen rather arrogant. Are there absolutely no shades of grey in your world?
271 - “he’s the velvet gauntlet hiding the iron fist”. Choice quote sean.
Any news of the other 3 by elections tonight ?
I had to step away for a while so couldn’t jump back in until now. Thanks to everybody for your takes on my question about LD’s vs. Labour. Particularly based on Socrates assessment, I have a picture roughly corresponding to America’s blue-collar Democrats vs. the white-collar Democrats. I’m sure that analogy is far from perfect, but it also instinctually matches the rough impressions I’ve gotten from what I’ve read.
Do you think that a hypothetical total Tory blowout of Labour, leaving the party in splinters, could conceivably bring about an amalgamation of the LD’s and Labour, as was already hinted at by Socrates? I believe the result, as unstable as it might seem, is the rough equivalent of the Democratic Party in the U.S. A few determined libertarians in the LD party might retreat into third party obscurity or join the Tories, but other than that, maybe it could work. It might be the Tories worst nightmare come true.
By the way, seanT’s answer at 192 wins my award for funniest post of the thread.
274. No. I am always absolutely 100% right, and everyone else is worse than wrong. SeanT is Always Right is, I believe, Smithson’s unwritten second law.
As for the charge of arrogance, this is just arrant and picayune piffle and merits not a nanosecond more of my attention.
265 - you’re not real. No-one thinks these things.
266 - I actually agree with Marr (it was Marr who said that, wasn’t it?). It’s not a party bias, certainly and I don’t think anyone at the Beeb deliberately sets out to skew what they report. But there’s a definite culturally liberal bias, but I think that’s probably repeated everywhere in the media. I think that people who go into the media are generally more liberal than the population at large. In the same way that you’ll find conservatives working for investment banks.
I don’t think there’s anything you can do to remedy this and I’m not sure anything should be done, really. Making staff appointments at the BBC take into account politics would be silly (the right hate affirmative action, would they welcome less qualified right wingers getting jobs over liberals on the basis of their politics. Here’s a clue, you’re a hypocrite if you would.). Any bias needs keeping in check, of course and there should always be oversight. The British people pay for it, so they should get the facts without editorialising.
The point remains though. Of the media that’s allowed to announce it’s bias and tell it’s readers what it thinks, the right leads 5-3 in terms of papers and overwhelmingly on the basis of sales.
I agree with G, but it goes beyond nasty right-wing politics. Most of the public want nasty left-wing politics at the same time. All those bloody rich bankers and asset managers should be taxed to deth so they don’t earn much more than the rest of us etc. People want all sorts of these things when they’re asked straight out, because they’re annoyed that it goes on. But deep down, the bulk of the public realise that if all these populist policies were carried out (on both the left and the right), the country would be a nastier place, and little would be achieved. Thus they vote for moderate leaders like Blair and Cameron en masse, but people like the BNP or UKIP or RESPECT don’t get anywhere.
277 - a new party based on labour and the libdems would probably be untenable. The lib dems are made up of social democrats (who could work easily with labour) and liberals (economic, social, personal, and/or political). The difference among the liberal is what weight they give to each of the four liberals (liberal economics means free market not liberalism in the US sense). Many would have real difficulty with the nationalist, anti-immigration, or anti-market elements within labour. It would be a very cumbersome and unnatural thing. More plausible is an enlarged liberal party (there is a need for a liberal party as there is for a conservative one) with a much smaller egalitarian, socialist party as the third party. I believe, this would better reflect the changed demographics of britain’s society.
277 - Whoah! Amalgamation? Never in a month of Sundays, the labour party is far too authoritarian as it stands now to make a link even thinkable.
If there was a realignment it would probably only be after a change in electoral system where most parties would splinter and, maybe, reform.
There does seem to be a similar change in US politics with Obama and Paul showing some similarities (and McCain in fact) as opposed to the Bush/Clinton axis. It seems to be framed as ‘anti-politics’ but it’s basically a shift to a people oriented rather than state oriented model.
278. Is there anything else that you would like Polly to do for you ? Perhaps the shirt ironing could be a prelude ? a fore play ? I mean if you had all that power and she had to do anything ?
279. Anton, sean thinks I’m a lefty because I reckon scientific academies are the best source of information on climate science. It’s not his fault, he’s just hardwire to think of everything as the noble right versus the evil left.
277- I don’t think a joining could work and if it did- it would be a dream for the Tories. There would be A LOT of infighting. You could say a project alliance was seen in 1988 with the joining of the SDP and the Liberals- and it turned out very bitterly. Today, the Social-Democratic and Liberal traditions are too contrasting to suitably sit side by side and the question has to be posed- what happens to the Trade Unions? Liberals would be quite opposed to the same Trade Union ties that Labour has had traditionally. Europe would be a major divisive issue- if simply very varied degrees of enthusiasm while crime policies are completely different. There are people on both sides- Labour and the Liberal Democrats who would join the Conservatives- particularly with Cameron’s emphasis upon social responsibility.
277. No the liberals have had 50 years to merge with Labour and haven’t. the trend in British politics will be for more parties not less
215.”You are right that there are a good 15 seats (glasgow north, aberdeen south, two in edinburgh, Bradford east, Blaydon, Islington south etc) which we can take from Labour. Worry not, we will concentrate on these and take as many as possible. The lib dems are not being complacent about the 2010 election.”
Sorry, but you are being complacent if you think that you will automatically take Aberdeen South or the two in Edinburgh. Take Aberdeen South, your vote share dropped last year against a resurgent SNP who were seen as the vehicle to remove Labour and the Libdems from power at Holyrood. After much torturous flaffing about during the campaign regarding a coalition with the SNP similar to the later EU referendum amendment, you did nothing, zilch, became irrelavant. You sent a strong and clear message that you can work with Labour, but not the SNP.
If you can point me to the reason that the Libdems will automatically be the recipient of a Labour decline in those Westminster constituencies, I would be keen to hear it. With both the SNP and the Conservatives in a much stronger position, where are the tactical/protest votes to come from?
One thing I do remember from the 1997-2001 period, it is the comraderie between Labour and the Libdems. The lets stick together to give the Tories a good kicking, and when they were down and out in 2001 it was, lets swap tactical votes in various constituencies to send them another message. We saw also them go into power together for 8 years at Holyrood.
That is what is missing this time, there is just no connection with the Libdems and the Conservatives. If you want to change the government, you are not going to do it by voting Libdem at the moment because they don’t seem to have that killer instinct politically to go after the Labour vote preferring instead to try and hang onto the soft Conservative vote they received in recent years. And more importantly, if you want to stop the Tories why would you vote Libdem?
Joining Lab and LD would be a nightmare. This LD, from the centre-right of the party would be gone in minutes, as would both the other ‘orange bookers’ and those on the left who see Labour ass far too authoritarian. And of course a huge chunk of the Labour parliamentary party see the LDs as irrelevant scum. I know many may agree.
268: Martin Coxall - “Since when does harassing blacks, gays and muslims count as a defining feature of patriotism?”
One definition of insanity is someone who keeps doing exactly the same things and then expects a different outcome. Telling the same falsehoods over and over again hasn’t worked - and won’t work.
272. David Roe - “That’s the BNP idiots’ version of patriotism.”
Is that Rupert I can hear calling? He wants you to fetch his slippers double-quick. Chop. chop.
280. I agree that popular will can sometimes seem incoherent (bashing fat cats and gypsies at the same time, WTF?), however I do not think the public is incoherent on the issues I cited.
Most of the public genuinely want the EU out of their lives, bigtime. Either withdrawal or semidetachment. This is not fleeting sentiment. I’d say it is the “settled will” of the British people, to cite a phrase. Though it is not a burning issue.
Most of the people want A MAJOR reduction in immigration, especially from non-EU countries, most especially from Muslim and African countries. You may disagree with the illiberal sentiments but I think a government that engineered this, in a “nice” and non racist way, would find a large reservoir of support.
I also think the public would welcome a much harder criminal justice regime, maybe even up to and including the death penalty. They have it in America and it’s not that unpopular. Are we really so different? I wonder.
279. To engage with you seriously, one immediate and easy way to start changing BBC bias would be to ensure they recruit in various newspapers - and not just the Guardian.
All parties are, by their nature coalitions of individual opinions though, the Labour party has Dennis McShane and Dennis Skinner under the same roof! The Tories have Edward Leigh and, I don’t know, whoever’s considered the most liberal Tory.
Look at the GOP. Ron Paul and George W. Bush in the same party. It’s not too outlandish.
OK, no amalgamation then! The Lib Dem party is an interesting animal though, from an American perspective, which I don’t think could survive in a North American habitat. Using James’ analysis, I just can’t see the American “social democrats” joining forces with the free marketeers and individual liberty types. And also, everyone wants their turn at power, except apparently those selfless individuals who have dedicated their lives to the Lib Dem cause.
287 - I disagree. Clegg has put out feelers towards the Tories and the Tories have tried to poach lib dem MPs for their front bench (e.g. David Laws). There are plenty of areas the two parties can work together on and there is no reason why the centralising authoritarian labour party can’t get a kicking from the lib dems. As for the seats I mentioned, you are right that the Lib Dems will not be the automatic beneficiary. However, in Glasgow North the SNP only had 13% last time. I expect this to rise but it is up to the LDs to squeeze this and unseat labour. In Edinburgh North and SOuth the tories would have to do amazingly to leapfrog the lib dems and win the seats. That is not to say that at the subsequent election they won’t be three way marginals but for know it is up to the libs to put in the work and add to their tally of Edinburgh MPs. Aberdeen south is the same story. In Blaydon the tories had 8% of the vote last time. Here its a head to head. Likewise Bradford East. Likewise Islington South. Likewise the City of Durham.
You could have a point in seats like Watford, which is a three way marginal and could see the Tory leapfrog Sal Brinton, but local conditions could prevent this (although I accept that on the figures we’ve recently been seeing the TOries must take this seat). But this is why it wasn’t in my list.
Hampstead and Kilburn will be interesting.
290 - it’s called populism sean. There have been very few successful populist politicians once the business of getting elected is over. It’s actually quite difficult to bash fat cats, cut immigration and leave the EU.
I guess that’s why no-one runs on those kind of platforms.
And isn’t the BBC only recruiting in the Guardian thing a myth? I don’t make a habit of flicking through the media section of the Times but the Beeb MUST recruit there surely?
192
181. Their behaviour over the referendum showed they are not serious about real politics. The LDS are the sad childhood gonk sitting at the end of the electoral coed’s bed, as she has sex with new boyfriend the Tories.
Excellent post.
Meantime,here in Camden (twinned with Mogadishu) it’s been another lovely week in Blairs open borders benefits and bombs for all Britain.
http://www.thecnj.co.uk/camden/2008/052908/news052908_01.html
TEENAGER KILLED IN SHOOTING
Seventeen-year-old dies four days after brutal ambush
A FOUR day vigil ended in tragedy last night (Wed) when a teenager died from the gunshot wounds inflicted in a Camden Town attack that has left a community shaken and fearful.
He had been shot through the head in Gilbeys Yard, a cobbled terrace off Oval Road that overlooks the Regent’s Canal, at 10.50pm on Saturday night.
The 17 year-old- named by police as Sharmaake Hassan was surrounded by dozens of friends and family at the Royal Free Hospital during his four day fight for life.
291 - Ken Clarke, or John Bercow, Francis Maude as the most liberal?
296, wanting to hug a homosexual, or indeed being a homosexual does not make you liberal.
296- Francis Maude- “it’s okay folks- I was in the sixties- I’m hip and wid it. I don’t even wear a tie”
As a Conservative, the man’s an embarrassment.
296 - aaah Ken Clarke. The most acceptable Tory. Sort of spoils it by flogging fags to Africans though.
297, 298 - then who is the most liberal?
299. No more poisonous then inflicting the UN and a series of government funded charities on Africa.
If Africans wish to buy fags, why shouldn’t they? When the average life expectancy is 32 and the bulk of your contemporaries have died of Aids, the impact of smoking is of little consequence.
272. Nick. Thanks, as ever, for a reasonable and courteous response. I do, however, think that your canvassing is avoiding the most obvious question and important question.
294. No. AFAIK they only recruit in the Guardian, if they bother to advertise at all (a lot of BBC recruitment is done inhouse).
I actually rather admire the BBC and I personally hope the Tories can preserve its best features. It makes me proud when I go abroad, as I do a lot, and I see that the Beeb is so respected overseas (which it is - it’s perhaps the most admired British institution, worldwide).
Nonetheless the Beeb is just a bit too horribly lefty and it needs challenging - so let’s get some more diverse opinions into Bush House (and no, that doesn’t mean more Gambians and lesb1ans, Director General, it means more rightwing people or eurosceptics or whatever).
Back On Topic, I wonder how much this Tory advance fits with the general rightward drift in European politics. We have neo-Fascists in Italy, a hard rightwing prez in France, Germany under a Christian Democrat, even the Swedes and the Danes have had enough of soppy liberalism. How right can Europe go? How much damage has twenty years of multicultural w*nking done to the image of the European left?
And on that pancontinental note, gute nacht.
300. The late Enoch Powell and Keith Joseph are certainly up there, as would be John Redwood.
273. fuel, food and tax? Add to that Profligacy, Authoritarianism and Deceptiveness.
As stated by Dennis MacShane, James? Purnell and Gisela Stuart respectively. There are major flaws here, not just an economic situation beyond the control of the government. The public are onto it. With Major, it was ridicule. With Brown, it’s raw hatred.
290. The three main parties have had 40 years to do something about the problems you mention - there is clearly a pact between them to ignore, or worse, to “normalise” the intolerable.
Cameron does not strike me as someone who is about to smash the “liberal” consensus with a hammer of radicalism.
If you think Brown is a weak PM, wait till you see the Bullingdon Boy try to deal with petrol riots, food riots, power cuts, rampant crime, bank failures, inflation/deflation, which will be coming our way over the next 10 years…
It would not surprise me in the least if the government after next is the BNP, or something similar…
History has a habit of repeating itself…
294. Haven’t the Conservatives got a policy that all newspaper adverts for Public Sector jobs should be scrapped and replaced by adverts on the internet?
Why not extend that policy to the BBC?
In the current climate of high taxation, I think the Conservatives would do well to introduce visible changes like this which would save significant amounts of money. Maybe not huge sums but sending a loud and clear message to the electorate that unnecesasary spending and waste will not be tolerated.
301 - Pushing fags in Africa is nothing short of despicable. Selling the poorest and most blighted of continents the most addictive and damaging of habits IS wrong. Don’t give me your “oh, it’s the market” rubbish. BAT and others have made concerted efforts, as the West wises up to the dangers and their profits drop, to push their expensive and damaging habits to the world’s poor and uneducated. It’s disgraceful.
222/234 - agree that a landslide of 180 at the next GE would be bad for democracy - I think the ideal majority would be about 80-100 - enough to be able to put your legislation through, but not so much that the governing party gets arrogant and can ride roughshod over anything in its way. Also there is the outside possibility with a majority like that, that a serious backbench rebellion can still be effective.
I can’t believe that I said that I couldn’t see the Tories going over 38/39% at the next GE come what may for our dear leader. I feel ashamed that I ever said such a thing now! Seriously I think all bets are off now for the next GE, just like Labour in 1997 we’ll have Tories winning in unbelievable places - in some ways I look forward to the Harrow West’s and Wellingborough’s next time, just places you couldn’t believed turned red in 1997. But as I’ve said here before, I think we will see some devastating LibDem gains at the next GE in places like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle and Sheffield, ie places where the LibDems have or are running at local level, where people are finally prepared to vote LibDem at a general election like they have in local elections. That’s why I still think the LibDems are a good buy on the seat spreads given they’re holding up remarkably well against the Conservatives where it really matters, the May local election results showed that.
I really sense a mood in the country like that of 1994-7 - just kick the current government out regardless of anything else. With a mutiny aided and abetted by anti-Labour tactical voting a Labour meltdown along Conservative 1997 lines is perfectly possible now. In a way I should be celebrating in advance, but it doesn’t feel that way to me - right now regardless of party identification, there comes a point when you just want a vaguely credible purposeful government even if it is your opponents in power for the good of the country. I thought the 1994-7 peroid was debilitating enough to live through but this somehow feels worse with the economy so visibly wilting.
We can speculate all we like about the floor to the Labour vote, right now that could be anything between 20 and 30%, I never thought we would see such a practical examination of this as we will now at the next GE.
Oh and:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/jobs/
if any of you conservatives fancy a bit of entryism.
294 - No I read the Times pretty much every day on the way home from work and I can’t remember a BBC ad in there ever.
They recruit from the Guardian pretty much exclusively and as such are pathetically biased.
309 - As an experiment I decided to look under ‘journalism’ to see what jobs they were openly advertising. Have a go yourself. You will see that they are advertising about 100 non-job placements for disabled people only. Very few other jobs. The web is a den of right-wingers and therefore the real jobs will be in next week’s Guardian.
I know lots of journalists, obviously, but the ones the BBC employ are exclusively lefties.
311. A very cogent analysis of the Beeb-Guardian lefty symbiosis:
http://theamericanexpatinuk.blogspot.com/2005/11/bbcguardian-partnership.html
This is one thing Cameron MUST change, as soon as he is in power. So easily done, and such a good thing for the country. It will be good for the Groaniad, too, if it is weaned from the cracked nipple of state subsidy.
273- I read Dr. Palmer’s post with interest and would conclude it sounds like really bad news for those who think getting rid of Brown might be the answer. If the people leaving Labour mention food, fuel and tax, and don’t mention Brown, in explaining their decision, it sounds to me like the problem has become the Labour brand itself. Thus, dumping Brown would not have any positive effect on Labour’s fortunes (unless, of course, his replacement did a better job of governing the country). In fact, it would have a negative effect by creating the appearance of total chaos, so Labour had better keep Brown, come rain or come shine.
304 - please explain your choices.
306 - the tory policy is to have a government run website. Undermining the work of the market. Nice work Cameron and co.
312
Super link, those numbers are pretty clear.
307 - Anton, I’m minded to agree with you. The consumers cannot make the correct rational choices if they do not have all the information available. If BAT and co are providing the information then they are distorting the market in their favour. This is a market failure and is economically unsound, let alone the moral aspects.
311. I very much doubt you know many journalists working as you do on the Sun.
plenty of liars & bigots though.
315 - But BBC ads are nothing to do with the market. There are more ABC1 readers of the Sun than the Guardian by a mile but they never advertise with us. Why? Why do they advertise less with Telegraph papers or the Times? It is agenda setting, nothing more, nothing less. It is WRONG when the BBC is supposed to be apolitical. They should blanket advertise accross the media spectrum and employ the best people for the job.
230. StJohn
“Paul M. If I have understood the terms of the bet correctly, David Roe is offering £100 at Evens that the Tories win a majority higher than 70 at the next GE? So 360 Seats+ ? Yokel I think has implied he would consider being a layer of Tory seats at this level? If you think the bet is value, wouldn’t you do better buying Tory seats on the spread, currently 345-352 on Spreadfair? “
I think there is a lower than 50% chance that any Conservative majority will be more than 70 seats, and hence see value in taking up David’s offer at evens.
I wouldn’t buy Tory seats at 352 since I don’t see there being that much upside. As I mentioned above, the bookies odds currently imply a 40% chance of the Tories getting less than 325 (i.e I would lose 27 or more) and a 30% chance of Tories getting less than 285ish (I would lose 67 or more). The upside from 352 to me is bunched in the 352-375 range (win up to 23) and I think there is minimal chance of the Tories getting over 400 seats. So the risk reward doesn’t work for me. Its always tricky to compare over/under bets with the spreads, because in the over/under bet it doesn’t matter by how much you are over under, whereas with the spreads it does.
Aaron or Caveman a while back used the example of cricket runs, where the over/under is typically lower than the spreads, because on the spreads the downside is limited to a duck, whereas the upside could be a triple century (which would be very costly to sellers). On the over /under you don’t care whether it was a century or a triple century , if its over you get paid the same. Hope ths makes sense
318 - David, the Guardian has the best media section around. The guardian has an active readership of people who either work or wish to work in the media (in part because of its listings section). It clearly provides the best cost/good application service, otherwise people would use other sources. Try it out. Get a kick ass media section for the Sun, offer competitive rates, demonstrate that your readership would be a good place to recruit from and bam you are competing with the guardian. No government monopoly required, thank you very much. Yes currently the Guardian has a bit of a monopoly, but this isn’t due to barriers to entry or aggressive tactics and pricing by them, it is because they offer the best service. The only thing worse than this situation would be a government run one.
320. Rubbish. A job in the BBC is much desired. If the BBC advertised in the Glossop Evening Argus, everr media wannabe in the country would subscribe. If it decided to advertise in the Telegraph media section, equally, the Telegraph media section would soon rival the Guardian’s.
The BBC has a duty to be apolitical. Because WE all pay for it. Given that it admits, itself, that it is biassed to the liberal left it therefore need to change this bias, and soon. Self-evidently, a very good start would be recruiting outside the liberal left press.
Because if it doesn’t, rest assured the incoming Tory government will nudge things along quite brusquely.
The times, as they say, are a changin’.
321 - are you honestly suggesting that if the Telegraph offered a substantially better service than the Guardian then the majority of media jobs would still be exclusively advertised in the guardian?
292 - You must understand, that the “Social Democrats” were actually the moderate wing which left in a time when the more radical socialists were in power in the Labour Party. Some of those Social Democrats, like the current Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats Vince Cable, were actually already then quite free market friendly, and are today more often content to call themselves just “liberals”, whereas some of the members of the old Liberal Party like the current President of the Liberal Democrats Simon Hughes were rather on the Left, and are now more conscientious to remember to add the “democrat” in the end of the label.
315 I think you misunderstand the market as a concept. Currently the Guardian is in a monopolistic position as regards media jobs - as a result of their considerable investment in building Guardian Media brand - as result can charge a premium. Guardian charges £XXXXX for advertising jobs, DIY Website costs £XXXXX-Y so is cheaper and as efficient. Therefore market choice is DIY.
If Guardian on-line then bid to do the same as DIY Website but at lower costs and/or added value the market choice would be to take that offer but the Guardian hasn’t the monopoly it has in print media and would probably lose out to a leaner specialist web based competitor. Result savings to media companies with probably added value as they reach a potentially wider audience.
Same applies to local government advertising.
322. I’m honestly saying that as a matter of course the BBC, a taxpayer-funded media corporation, with enormous power (and which has guiltily admitted it has liberal left bias) should obviously recruit from a wide range of newspapers, rather than one just national paper, a less popular one, which just happens to be… erm… liberal left.
It ain’t astrophyics.
Alternaively thr government run site is a good idea. Give the profits to charity.
I suspect many on the BBC have sniffed the change of political wind and have already started sending dear John letters to Farringdon Road. If they haven’t they are stupid. Coz rightwingers are angry about Beeb bias, and will end it.
323 - Ted, I don’t see where we disagree. The guardian’s current strong market position will probably disappear at some point due to competition. Your suggestion of a niche specialist web brand being a prime possibility.
Ted
Surely the reputation of Guardian Media to media people is so strong that even if you were a rabidly Tory Daily Mail reader in media, you would go the Guardian listings if you were looking for a new job.
Would be interesting to see a study of how the Ministry of Defence advertises. Wouldn’t think Guardianistas would be their target demographic (although the Royal Navy and the RAF were trying to broaden their recruitment and be more gay friendly so who knows)
324 - Sean, if you think you can provide a better service than the Guardian then build one. I know people (not liberals or leftists) who buy the guardian occasionally for the media section. It is a product of theirs which they have cultivated. If someone can do better, they will and this conspiracy style lunacy fears from the reactionary and scared right will simply disappear or find a new pet subject.
326 - precisely Paul. Its not a conspiracy. Its very explainable.
what about SIS advertising? should they have to do it through this centralised government advertising site? the army etc? its simply silly.
321. They aren’t really though, are they. Do you actually believe that a Cameron government will ‘change’ this country?
It’s plainly apparent that you are horrified with how liberal Cameron appears to be, and you are ten times worse than any Old Labour supporter that voted for Blair in 1997.
324 - lots of nice people work at the Guardian. They keep the pubs in the area busy.
Does anyone object that the legal profession advertise all their jobs in The Times?
Public service jobs will always attract, as a default, people who are more left leaning. Right wingers are far less likely to be interested in jobs that they think shouldn’t exist - hardly a good career starting point!
332- well said.
There’s 18 journalism jobs advertised on the BBC site! 18! Even a couple of national ones, plus sport, one for BBC Scotland in Glasgow and a load of local jobs. If you want to work there, go ahead and apply.
But no, you’re right, they’re obviously hiding the “journalist in charge of PC pandering” and “journalist in charge of anti-Israel bias” somewhere.