Could Winchester be the Lib Dems’ Waterloo?
May 31st, 2008
Would Clegg’s approach to Labour be the campaign issue?
The suggestions that Mark Oaten might quit his Winchester seat before the general election and create a by election creates big challenges for both Nick Clegg and David Cameron.
For the newly-energised Tories, flushed with confidence following Crewe and Nantwich, would fancy their chances in a seat that was lost to the Lib Dems by just two votes at the 1997 general election. Then the result was contested in the courts, a re-run was ordered, and Mark Oaten was returned with a majority of more than 21,000.
Today things have moved on with Cameron’s Conservatives being widely seen as the winners of the next general election and with their eyes on a whole raft of seats that were lost to the Lib Dems while they were perceived as “the nasty party”. A Winchester by election could be a massive test of the extent to which that is going to be possible.
For the Conservative by election machine would surely make Nick Clegg’s ambivalence to Labour the key issue of the campaign. If you want to send a message to Gordon Brown, electors would be told, then there is only one way of doing it - elect a Tory again.
Clegg’s approach to the Lisbon treaty referendum and the scenes we saw in the Commons a few months ago would be played back again and again. His party would be portrayed as the agents of Gordon who are standing in the way of proper change.
Defending their 7,473 majority in these circumstances could be very tricky. For the hard fact is that the Lib Dem leadership has yet to articulate an approach to David Cameron that sounds convincing. The line that was coming from Nick Clegg earlier in the week is hardly compelling.
Clegg and others in the party should do everything they can to persuade Oaten to hang on until the general election. Whatever the former leadership contender is demanding he should be given it - he has Clegg over a barrel.
UPDATE - Mark Oaten, the Lib Dem MP for Winchester, has posted a response to this article and to your comments, refuting The Times claim that he has made a public statement about his future. I have confirmed the veracity of this comment with Mr Oaten via his Parliamentary e-mail address. Mr Oaten’s response can be found at post 257. - Morus
SECOND UPDATE The Portsmouth News is carrying a report tonight under the heading - “MP says he will go before an election”. - Mike Smithson. So this gets more confusing.
Mike Smithson
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It’s slipping through their fingers all the time, but if they take a chance then Rennard might have a plan to get them a wealthy man. That’s the name of the game these days and unfortunately in FPTP the winner takes it all.
O/T- “The war for Gordon’s ear”
And, while there is no plan to send a delegation to force out Mr Brown, the possibility that he could quit by the end of the year is not being ruled out by Cabinet colleagues.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-war-for-gordons-ear-837409.html
Everywhere should be the Lib Dems’ Waterloo. All it takes is for all voters to become enlightened, and open their eyes to the reality of the EU, and the Lib Dems will be reduced to only about 37 votes in each constituency. Normal people who are on the centre-left and who want a progressive alternative can vote Green instead - or Loony, or Communist, or whatever. Those on the right can vote UKIP until the Conservative Party comes to its senses on the issue; and nobody should vote for the Labour Party at all because it’s illiberal, authoritarian, totalitarian, corrupt, incompetent, imperialist, reactionary, decadent, soulless, vacuous, nankerous, skankerous, cantankerous, and hippopotamusistic.
The political situation in Ireland might also be changing rapidly as it is in the UK. Unofficial reports from the NO campaign are becoming increasingly bouyant. Will this be the moment that Euro politics goes mainstream in the UK - as the Lib Dems get strung up for behaving so idiotically over Lisbon?
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2008/05/ireland-another-unofficial-report-says.html
4 Yep, Bayeux
I guess the thing the Tories [Pretty Boy Dave faction] really needs at the moment is a focus on Europe. Europe loses votes for PBD; everything else loses votes for Brownstuff.
As for The Man Who Never Was…Elected; the country doesn’t give a fiddler’s whatsit what he thinks about Europe and less what his party thinks.
By the way, I love your moniker - very pro-Norman.
Malcolm
The Duke of Wellington described Waterloo as “a damned close run thing”, and a by-election in Winchester would be too. But Nick Clegg is no Napoleon.
I agree with Mr Smithson’s take. It might prove an instructive election for the Tories in particular, testing out their attack lines on the Lib Dems. If there is a by-election in Winchester, its outcome will radically shift the markets’ assumptions about the number of Lib Dem seats, whatever its result.
moniker derived otherwise Malcolm. Glad you like it.
People might not care about Brown and Europe, but they don’t like being lied to, taken for granted and conned, whatever the topic. People have a moral sense, even if they don’t want to think about the implications of thousands of pages of Treaty texts. Brown fails in the instinctive judgement of voters, not because they’ve all decided to take up Jurisprudence.
Cameron’s avoiding the EU until he wins power, as it always has the potential to divide. He is no EU lover. Events and the zeitgeist could force his hand later on to become more decisive. Meanwhile he has nothing to gain by bringing anything to a head. All he must do is win power win as big a majority as he can. The bigger that majority the more likely he will be to challenge the power of Brussels in one form or another.
Oaten has Clegg over a barrel. Of such images are nightmares made.
Oaten has been saying this in public since last November. So far no Job has materialised. Whats his game with these statements ?
1. Does threatening to force a by election and shaft your party attract employers ? I doubt it.
2. he must realise that all this will achieve is the tories throwing a bit extra at it just in case. Is he that angry with the party?
3. Is he black mailing the party ? if so I’m with Mike. Give him what he wants.
4. Is it just attention seeking ?
Ultimately the question is this. Is he going to get anytime soon a better job (100k plus) than the Mp’s pay and perks that absolutely necessitates him standing down ?
That said if he goes (a) the national picture (b) his history (c) a completely unnecessery by election make it a very sticky wicket
Once you have viewed this:-
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=itx2ZuG2Ulk
You’ll have no doubt, who should be the victor at Winchester.
Arise our, ‘Once and Future King’
It’ll be the Battle of Bardon, once again!!
I fail to see how the ‘insurrection’ line is ambivalent on Labour. The last paragraph of his Telegraph article says it all: “With the Brown Government circling the drain there is the chance for a genuine new direction for the country. Not just a change of prime minister, but a real change of direction. That calls for a party that doesn’t just talk about the idea of change: it makes change happen.”
Winchester rather typifies the LibDem election machine in action. By throwing everything at the Winchester re-run in 1997 they turned a majority of 2 into one exceeding 21,000. This ability to throw everything at a given seat is what makes the Party so good at winning by-elections.
It is quite revealing to see what happens thereafter. By 2001 Oaten’s majority had slipped to below 10,000 and come 2005 it had slipped below 7,500. This was before his ‘scandal’ and suggests to me that incumbency factor is perhaps not as strong as we are led to believe.
Ultimately, I suspect that Joe Public has finally wised up to ‘triangulation’, the politics of being all things to all men, and this could make life very difficult for the LibDems at the next General Election. People will be voting with their pockets and the focus will be on whichever Party is most likely to save them money. The Conservatives look most likely to benefit from this
9
Perhaps he just wants to advertise that he’s looking for work.
As Casino Royale pointed out yesterday Winchester has had substantial boundary changes and is therefore hardly going to be easy to predict for any of us.
Winchester is still be a bellweather, though. A southern seat in a prosperous college town that we Tories used to hold safely, the kind of constituency that in past periods of opposition we still held well. These places typify the difference between the 1997 rout and a normal loss of power.
More importantly they embody the Lib Dems claim to have broken the mold of two party politics forever. Their theory is that places like this have become ’solid’ Lib Dem territory - their foundation stone for proving that there the third way in British politics is already here.
And you have to hand it to them they really do ‘campaign all year round and not just at elections’ in places where they have a Lib Dem MP. Certainly down my way they haven’t wasted any opportunity to leverage the Parliamentary allowances system to promote their man and strenghten his encumbency advantage; using ’surveys’ and letters to constituents to fill the gaps where they haven’t got the volunteer manpower any more. And the local MP is a master at the “pressure group photo-call on the green outside Parliament” press release, from protecting rare butterflies to supporting road safety awareness week our local MP pops up as regular as clockwork; donning a cylcing helmet, holding a butterfly net- you know the thing.
Great politics when the average voter is broadly happy with the direction the country is heading in but I do wonder if it will still work at a time when people desperately want a new Government….
So it will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems have really broken the mold or whether all they have done is in some seats become the surrogate Labour Party, but without the power or influence.
John Howell selected in Henley
He seems to have a good ability to expose the usual lib dem failings - see recent letter he wrote
Small district councils like Oxford City are asked to provide relatively few services for their residents. But one thing the City is asked to provide is a domestic refuse collection which meets residents’ needs. The success of Oxford City Council in turning the city of dreaming spires into a rat-infested hole is, therefore, much more significant an indication of institutional failure than even your article acknowledges (27 January).
Perhaps we should not be surprised; Oxford City Council is, after all, one of the worst performing councils in England. Yet it is this same council which, only last week, asked Ruth Kelly to grant it unitary status.
Residents and those who love Oxford will be heartened to know that what that means is that the City Council wants to do for education, social care, highways, libraries and those other services in Oxfordshire which are currently provided by an excellent County Council, what it has so dramatically done for rubbish - make a rat-infested mess of it.
The City Council’s response ‘that there have always been rats in Oxford’ is clearly the sort of arrogant reply we will hear when schools and social care, our roads and our libraries start falling apart if the City Council gets control of them. But a cry of “there have always been poor schools/poor social care etc. in Oxford” simply will not do where people’s lives and futures are at stake. Only the rats will get the last laugh.
14 A by-election would be on current boundaries, though.
It is worse than that for the LibDems. Anecdotal evidence suggests Oaten’s bizzare love life put off a lot of voters. This will stir it all up again.
12 - Don’t know about that. The re-run election was a one off. There is really no reason to think that Oaten should have maintained the votes of many who voted for him in that election. Arguably he did well to maintain as much of the support as he did.
Maybe the Conservatives should offer Mark Oaten a job in order to trigger the by-election.
Mark Oaten… wait, was that the “tough liberal”, “family man” wannabe party leader who got caught paying two male prostitutes to shit on his face? I wonder how that will go down in Winchester, they must never have got a vote on it.
15 How is that an attack on the LibDems ? Why are any failings on Oxford City Council down to LibDems , the council is run By Labour and of course some services are provided by Oxon County Council which is run by the Conservatives .
Post revelations the LibDems took a beating in Winchester, but recently have been gaining from the Tories again.
We also have a very good candidate. Though I believe he used to work for Vodafone so I wonder if the Tories will try the Hodge Hill tactic. Somehow I doubt it. I also would doubt there will actually be a by-election.
21 — not just Winchester: post revelations the LibDems took a beating all over the country. (Oh, and Labour MPs should note that changing the leader has not helped.)
12. Hmm. What I think those figures show is the power of the Lib Dem by-election machine. At a general election, they could scrape home by a tiny margin; at a by-election, they could win by a landslide.
While the political landscape has changed substantially since 1997, the Lib Dems will still tend to perform better in a one-off election than when they have to fight on many fronts (which in that part of Southern England, on a general election day, they would).
Winchester would be a difficult by-election for all three parties. The Conservatives could well lose, which would kill a lot of the post-C&N momentum about the party’s ability to win key elections and build the image of inevitability that preceded Labour’s victory in 1997. The Lib Dems could lose their first by-election since the 1920’s where they (or a predecessor party) won the seat at the preceding general election. Labour could lose its deposit and finish fourth or even lower.
Whatever the public noises, I suspect all three parties would be quite happy to see Oaten serve his term out.
21 Assumes that unlike C&N and Henley the Lib Dems would keep their candidate.
OT
http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/46340
‘Scottish Socialists in talks to ‘join forces’ with Greens’
“But the Greens’ leadership are less enthusiastic… According to Greens’ joint leader Robin Harper: “There has been no proposal to the party’s Council or from within the parliamentary group for any kind of joint working with the SSP, or indeed any other political party… the Green strategy is to focus more on attracting disaffected LibDem and Labour supporters, who could be put off by closer links with the hard left.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2309832.0.Scottish_Socialists_in_talks_to_join_forces_with_Greens.php
25
I dont know what happened to my text, I meant to say, ED Balls is going to be popular with the voters.
http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/46340
I tend to agree with A Voice from Lothian @ 11 re Mike Smithson’s interpretation of the Lib Dem position. i.e that I don’t really understand what he is on about.
Clegg’s line is spot on. Labour are failing, but the Tories have offered no coherent plan for Government. They are the main show in town, but they do not have an act.
As for Winchester. I don’t think that Crewe is any guide. It would be a straight match between the Tories and the Lib Dem by-election team. Mike wonders if it would break the Lib Dems, but it would also be an opportunity for them. A Lib Dem win would both put the spotlight on the Tories’ shortcomings in terms of a coherent platform, and put to question this notion that has sprouted up that they are inevitably going to stroll to victory.
16. Sean, Yes I forgot that. Good point.
George Hollingbery the Tory who contested Winchester in 2005 was so confident of winning next time,that he decisde dto stand fro the newly created safe Tory seat of Meon valley.
Sean is right if by election called it would be on old boundaries.
rogerh
On the last thread, it was claimed that Boris has rowed back on his committment to become chair of the MPA and reappointed Len Duvall.
Seemed a bit weird to me, so 30 seconds of googling brought up the MPA’s own answer
‘Following his unopposed re-election as chair of the MPA (until 30 September 2008) at the Authority’s annual general meeting on the 29 May 2008, Len Duvall said:
“Over the past four years I have worked hard with my MPA colleagues and the Met to make London as safe as possible for all our communities. Since the mayoral and assembly elections, when Boris Johnson was returned as mayor, and Kit Malthouse was appointed as deputy mayor for policing, we have had positive conversations about the way forward for policing in London and for the MPA in this interim period up to the 30 September. Boris Johnson will take over as chair of the Authority on 1 October.” ‘
… which seems to contradict the claim.
On the Venezualan oil issue, some seem to have taken offence at the stance that Boris will attempt to find an alternative funding for the poorest Londoners without taking money away from the citizens of one of the poorest countries on Earth. Apparently such a stance is profoundly wrong to some on the “left”.
Personally, it was one of the reasons I voted for him in the first place - getting one of the richest countries on the planet subsidised by one of the poorest countries in the world due to mutual ego-stroking by both leaders did seem a touch contemptible to me. It seemed absurd that we couldn’t pay for it ourselves. And, it turns out that cancelling “The Londoner” and the Venezualan “London embassy” alone save more than a quarter of the money gained by siphoning it away from the Venezualans.
24 true Ted but Martin Tod is a candidate who has been selected with the aim and indeed a pretty high probability of him becoming the next MP. I’ll offer you 2-1 against any other candidate contesting the by-election. How about that?
24 Both Conservatives and LibDems could have a conundrum with candidates for a Winchester byelection as they both have candidates in place for Winchester and Meon Valley . Indeed George Hollingbery the Prospective candidate for Meon Valley was the Conservative candidate in Winchester in 2005 .
27, he’s quite frequently in the Yorkshire Evening Post, typically photographed surrounded by unfortunate schoolchildren.
I do hope he loses, it would make the decade worthwhile.
31 Venezuela isn’t really one of the poorest countries in the world though is it… despite the activities of Chavez.
23 What the 21,000 by-election majority showed was that the electorate can come together and punish any party that whinges about the freely expressed will of the people - regardless of previous voting alliegance. Nothing more. If the LibDems had tried the same stunt, then the Conservatives would have had a five-figure majority. Accept the result; get over it. And don’t ever, EVER, try to tell the voters they got it wrong. Especially if the whinging demonstrates what a thoroughly unlikeable individual you are to people who otherwise knew little about you and had tribally put their cross against the party, not the man.
I guess if I have a subject this is it since I’m the George H in the graphic.
FWIW I think the situation is as follows (apologies to Yellow Submarine who made a couple of these points):
Mark is certainly looking for a job outside politics (he has said so for a long time).
He has not managed to sell his house and it is now (as far as I can see) off the market.
He has recently picked up a job consulting to and advising a Leadership / Executive training business locally.
If he goes early he will lose his “resettlement allowance” (redundancy cheque) which (I think) will be worth a whole year’s salary.
He has two years of salary to go for a job that no-one can take from him and that he can do as much or as little of as he pleases.
So I guess you can see where I’m coming from as far as his personal situation is concerned. That said there can be no doubt that Mark wants out and if the right offer arrived on his desk he would take it up quickly.
But will it? $200,000 jobs in the US aren’t 10 a penny.
O/T in the French Open I had a good 9/4 win on Llodra beating Bolelli yesterday, don’t know if anyone got on I posted at the tail end of a thread.
Today I think Tommy Robredo is a good thing at evens with http://www.bet365.com to beat Radek Stepanek. Robredo has won 5 of the 6 matches they’ve played including all 3 on clay. Stepanek isn’t in bad form and I’ve taken a minor bit of insurance with a 6-1 saver with http://www.sportingbet.com on a 3-2 Stepanek set win. However I fully expect Robredo to come through today on his favourite surface and he should be 1/3 over 5 sets and not the evens or 11/10 you can get on Betfair.
26 - Stuart. Any thoughts or links to help me with 163 on the last thread?
Mike what on earth is wrong with you??
I know this site is known as ConHom II but really!
What exactly have the Tories done other to sit back and let Labour fall apart? Nothing, nada, zero!! Yet you lord them up, Nick is at least proposing some policies and you lay in to him.
Cameron is a clever bastard, he has done little and just swept up the anti-Labour feeling at the moment. Even the rabid Tories here will know that be in Crew or London they have not won the hearts and mind of the nation.
I work in London and while many voted Tory hardly any did so out of love of the party, its leader or its policies.
What exactly do you want from Nick when as a party we get bugger all media time, while Cameron can change his socks and the media make it headline news. People like you then lay in to him without holding that slippery Cameron to account.
Both Labour & Tories get massive airtime and an easy ride in relative terms to the Lib Dems. Strange how the party proclaiming to want to form the next government is put under less scrutiny than those in third place.
I know you don’t like Nick on a personal level, you made that clear during the leadership election but its getting to the point when you may as well pick up your Tory membership card in Victoria.
Lets hope unlike yourself Mike people wake up when a GE comes around and scratch under the Tory surface,…I am sure its still very un-pleasent.
37… posts like this which are non-partisan and from people who actually know what they are talking about are the best thing about this site.
37: Interesting that you’re that GeorgeH, and your comments look reasonable to me. Are you the PPC for next time?
I’ve just had a look at the Henley figures in 2005, and they prompt a hypothetical question. Suppose the LibDems have a good campaign and squeeze the other non-Tory parties, and that BJ had a personal vote which made the Tory figure inflated (note that he gained 7% in 2005 - an unusually good Tory result for that year); then suppose a result emerges that the commentariat call ’surprisingly close’ (say the Tory majority is more than halved). What would that do to the standing and morale of all three parties? It’d obviously be a tonic for the LDs and a dampener for the others, but would we expect more lasting consequences?
42 GeorgeH is now PPC for Meon Valley .
40
Isnt that what Blair did in 1997
Would be interested to hear PB’s contributors view of Sporting Index’s conduct with me yesterday. It about a football bet, but could have implications for political markets.
Yesterday morning Sporting offered 0.8-1.0 Galway/St Patricks. This looked wrong (should have been the other way round as Ladbrokes were offering 4/6 on St Patricks). Over a period of 5 hours I made 6 bets, all backing Galway. Each on-line bet was “referred to a trader” so I assumed they were happy with their position, although it was clearly a mistake. By 1600 hours I had got a position where I would win £2.5k if St Patricks won, £400 for a draw and a £300 loss for a Galway win. By 1700 hours my bets were all still ‘open’ and Sporting had still not changed their position, so I laid my Galway losing position off on Betfair by backing them to win at around 5/1. At 1730 hours Sporting called me to say they’d realised their mistake and voided all my bets, which they are entitled to do under their rules. Problem was, of course, this left me with an unlikely £300 win bet on Galway on Betfair. Sporting said this wasn’t their problem and they “don’t encourage that kind of trading.” They offered me a free £50 supremacy bet as a gesture of goodwill, but this of course wasn’t going to help - unless St Patricks won by 7 goals or more…
So, I ended up losing £300 because of Sporting’s error. My problem: not that they followed their rules - they were entitled to do what they did - but each bet was accepted by a trader and the ‘wrong’ market was up for trading for several hours.
The result? A draw, so even my free supremacy bet lost!
Any views or thoughts? Could this have implications for political betting?
33 ‘Both Conservatives and LibDems could have a conundrum with candidates for a Winchester byelection as they both have candidates in place for Winchester and Meon Valley’
I doubt it will cause problems for the Tories: Steve Brine would fight the by-election (better chance of getting elected then than at the next GE), and George Hollingbery would be happy to get elected for Meon Valley in 2010.
45. Sorry, I should have said “I made 6 bets, all backing St Patricks”
@40:
And that, my friends, is what Lib Dem denial looks like in all its obscene glory. You can hardly blame Mike that Clegg is your leader (for now).
30: Or perhaps he just wanted a safe seat not one he’d have to fight for.
Winchester is a possible bear trap for all the leaders, if the Lib Dems lose it Clegg will look weak(er), if Cameron doesn’t win it we’ll get every Labour MP on TV claiming it’s a disaster for the Tories, and Labour might end up coming behind one if not two minor parties.
44 - To an extent, and remember that unlike Labour at the moment(although this may change) ALL Tories where hated not just the leader or the front bench.
Also in 97 while the Lib Dems did well under Paddy there was not the kind of pressure the media or people such as Mike put on them now.
It was still Blair and Labour having to prove they finally where ready for power….it seems Cameron just has to prove he is not brown(easy enough) and everyone is satisfied.
I hope and believe that nearer the next GE the Tories will start to be asked questions, some that they will not like then is the test if Cameron can keep them all satisfied when power seems close and they start jockeying for position within the party.
I have no love for Labour or Brown, they are the most ill-liberal party we have had in this country for years. However while just waiting for the them to drop the ball and pick it up is an option why do people believe that would make Cameron’s Tories any better.
It would as in the USA be good for politicians and their parties to prove what difference they would make to peoples day to day lives. Not just point out how the other side are cocking it up.
Maybe thats not ever going to happen in this country but it doesn’t mean it shouldn’t.
[49] I don’t think Labour can take third place in Henley for granted, either.
[45] SPIN (and other bookies) hide behind the phrase ‘palpable error’. If they notice a ‘palpable error’ before the off, and notify you, they look ‘clean’ to me, and (much more importantly) to any arbitrator.
Your mistake was to take cover on betfair. An odd choice. You’ve got great value, apparently. Why not let it run? And then if they void it, your’re not worse off.
42. Excellent Lib Dem performances are so hard-wired into the political consciousness that I suspect it wouldn’t have many lasting consequences, though in the short term it would knock some of the confidence on the Tory benches and the confidence of Tory supporters. Even a reduced majority though is not the story that a gain / loss is, and I suspect the media would move on fairly quickly. A squeeze on the other ‘non-Tory’ parties could put some pressure on Brown, especially if Labour polls well down into single figures - its vote is nowhere near as low going into the byelection as it is in Winchester, for example.
That said, I’m not sure how much of a personal vote Boris had - probably some, but the 7% gain in 2005 could be explained partly by the 2001 result, where he lost some of Michael Heseltine’s share. In other words, 2005 had an element of catch-up about it.
48 - As usual you miss the point and play the man and not the ball…typical.
52. The Galway win would still have lost me >£1k on Sporting, so wanted to cover it off to be ‘green’ on all eventualities…
23/49. Glad we agree!
40 This isn’t ConHome, LibDem Home or LabHome - though admittedly it does seem swamped by Conservatives at times - its about betting and IMHO Mike, while being honest about his party allegiance, takes a distinctly non-partisan view when it comes to cash.
Nick Clegg has potential to be a good leader but I’m not sure he was the right choice at a time the Lib Dems were facing a two party squeeze. Not as if there wasn’t a warning that politics was changing - Liberal Democrat performance in the 2007 locals, Scots and Welsh, Sedgefield and Ealing elections indicated that the conditions that supported the1992-2005 successes were disappearing.
Perhaps it’s a good thing that the media blank the Lib Dems (except for Cable) - the Lib Dem peers completely ignore Clegg’s wishes and vote down Lib Dem HoC amendments, vote against an In/Out referendum (the basis for the farcical walk out), Frontbenchers resign. Not great leadership.
40.
I know they’re biased, but why do LibDems always assume that support for them is enthusiasm for their brand of “liberalism”, but support for the Tories is just them holding their nose to kick Labour.
They were at it over C&N saying that the result was just Labour voters expressing their dissatisfaction with their party rather than them deciding they want to give the Tories a go. If that’s the case, what does it make of the Dunfermline and West Fife victory. Will a Lib Dem admit that the win there was just the voters punishing Labour rather than wanting LibDemism?
Nick,
As Mark S says, I’m PPC for Meon Valley which takes in about 30,000 people from the old Winchester Constituency. There are about 54,000 of old Winchester in the new Winchester.
Incidentally (ref Rogerh @ 30) Meon Valley selected before Winchester and, given each had part of my previous constituency within it, my name was down for both.
I was delighted to be selected for Meon Valley but would have been just as delighted to be selected for Winchester.
Is Oaten even employable, given his background? No selection group I ever knew would touch him with a bargepole- they would be unable to predict how their existing staff would react to him, and would not take the risk. Why should they? There are plenty more, probably better, candidates to choose from.
I would most surprised if the Lib Dems lost Winchester.
They have almost an 8,000 cushion
Due to their big majorities they were able to leave Winchester at the last two Generals to take care of itself
A by election at their timing would allow them to organise a campaign
Where they have no consistent campaign message because of a lack of time or organisation they do badly, i.e. South Staffs and Crewe
Their candidate has I believe been in position some time
The Labour vote will get squeezed to about 1,000, some will go to the Cons in the present climate but most to the Lib Dems, this is the base Labour vote that would want to knock the Cons
Over the last 2 years the Lib Deems have picked up locally in elections
My bet at this stage would be a 4000 win for the Lib Deems
Frankly if I was at Cowley Street I would want the by election, say in the Autumn or next March, it would be a good chance of a win outweighing the risks of defeat, and they would benefit from the publicity it would gain as well as boost their organisation in other seats they need to hold at the General.
If they did well at Henley, either a win or reducing the majority, the latter is feasible if the core Labour vote switches mainly to them, Mark Oaten should resign the next day!
Mind you “events dear boy, events”, may play a hand between then and now, and who knows Gordon Brown may have got a boost or two.
37 - thanks George, there actually seems to be little local knowledge there but plenty of common sense. My overriding feeling for Winchester is that whichever party is involved, the challenger will always spin the ‘pointless by-election’ with great success. Unless Mark just needs to get away from it all for his own sake, the advantages of him going seem pretty thin all round.
And agreed on the Lib Dem love-in this morning; the right line against the Tories at the moment is that it’s change you can’t believe in; they’ve no idea how to deal with the economy, and words are not enough. They have been very quiet on policy outside the areas they want to talk about. Nick Clegg is onto this I think.
Off to learn German then spend an afternoon in Henley, will let you know how it goes.
45 - Bookmakers don’t like people trading/arbitraging them against each other.
@54:
I’m not playing anything. I was merely pointing out that whining because Mike isn’t fawning over Clegg’s genius doesn’t do you any credit.
I think Mr Smithson has made it quite clear several times that as far as he’s concerned, Clegg is on probation. However, that probation is rapidly coming to an end.
60, he could host a TV sex channel catering for niche fetishes?
61, I’d be surprised if the Tories got a victory over the Lib Dems. However, that would mean a victory would be a huge deal whereas a defeat, though unwanted, would not be seen as a crushing blow.
@60:
Aren’t the rumours that he’s got some consultancy job in New York?
Wider choice of rent boys in Manhattan than Winchester, I imagine.
I wouldn’t worry too much about Mike - he even thinks he was proven right by not supporting Paddy Ashdown!
35 Certainly much poorer than the UK. Like Andy, I can’t get my head around some “left wingers” thinking they should supply us with oil for less than the market rate.
Nuh-huh. We still have Henley to come. The Tories have picked some worthy-but-dull councillor who writes green-ink letters to the Oxford Mail, and their campaign isn’t even off the ground yet. This has all the markings of a Bromley & Chislehurst about it.
Any bad result will give the Tory momentum a severe check, which would filter through into any Winchester by-election, if indeed there is one.
40 - Thanks for proving my point, this site is about as non-partisan as China….if your not a Tory you are shouted down, abused and torn in to.
On that I will leave you to it, after not posting for a while I thought things may have changed, I was clearly wrong.
Enjoy your love in.
Also the LibDems can puff themselves up for putting out as many policies as they like, but it doesn’t mean the bulk of their voters have any knowledge of them.
“60, he could host a TV sex channel catering for niche fetishes?”
Such as Cherie Blair and Candy Atherton having a bath together? Or the chap who was mentioned in the Times a couple of days ago, who died after allowing himself to be penetrated by a horse?
20 - I imagine that letter was written before May 1st (seeing there’s a reference to a Jan 27th piece) when Oxford was run by a minority LibDem administration. Correct?
sorry that should have been 57….40 was a great point!
@68:
Chavez is trailblazing 21st Century neostalinism in South America. No surprising that *failed* Stalinists like Livingstone and his coterie of idiot-trots would want to gobble the Comrade Hugo’s member at every opportunity.
@70:
Somebody needs a hug.
68 - My understanding was that we were giving them “transport advice”. Whether it was right to supply the oil at less than the market rate is entirely a matter of Venezualan capacity. If they had spare capacity, then simple economics says that they get a better deal selling it cheaply than not at all.
This seat looks winnable for the Tories, to me. What sort of swing would they need to take this? It looks very sinilar to the kind of swing they needed to take C & N, say around 8%?
Obviously it’ll be harder to generate a big swing against the Lib-Dems than it was to generate one against the hated Labour Party, but with the wind in their sails like it is now, I think any seat is possible for the Tories to win right now.
76 - From ColinW (who old pbc hands will remember fondly!). You should have seen him and Big Mak go at each other on LibDem Voice (?) a few months back. Even Rangers fans in Manchester would have been appalled….
“My understanding was that we were giving them “transport advice”
Whatever that means.
80 - I dunno. Could mean transport advice?
Europe and propping up Labour could be an issue, but do the local Conservatives; i) recognise this and ii) have the capability to communicate it?
Looking at the votes, in the local elections in 2004 and after “Oaten’s outing” in 2006, the Conservatives won councillors at both and took control of the City Council in 2006. It did look like the local Conservatives had sorted themselves out.
61 But as dave(s) points out in 2007 and 2008 the Conservatives actually lost ground to the Lib Dems and are heading towards either NOC or a Lib Dem minority in 2010.
Therefore there is concern about the state of the local Conservative organisation. It does not look like a “winning machine”.
The Lib Dems should have been reduced to a small core because of Oaten, yet they were not. It indicates that things are not right with the local Conservative campaign. Which is why the local Lib Dems probably do want a fight. Cowley Street’s people are 90% assigned to campaigning and they will also be pushing for a campaign.
Incidentally Mike, your article reads as pretty critical against the Lib-Dems and particularly Nick Clegg. Are thinking of crossing the virtual floor?
@80:
We advise you to have a crumbling Victorian transport infrastructure, privatise it through companies that are incompetent and nearly bankrupt, leave it effectively unmaintained for half a century whilst it crumbles, and then occasionaly shoot people on it if the look a bit foreign.
It works for us. THIS IS OUR ADVICE.
79 ColinW. Aaaaah whatever happened to him!
74 Sorry if it came across as shouting you down - you are quite free to argue why I’m wrong.
84 - I love* the Underground and thinks it works pretty well, all things considered.
(* - well i quite like the jubilee line extension anyway
)
Mike any by-election in a potentially Tory-LibDem marginal would be a real scrap and to the poster who complained that David Cameron has done nothing, oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them!
A Winchester by-election would potentially be a majo indicator not only for the south-west of England where the majority of LibDem-Tory marginals are located but also Scotland.
In Scotland for 9 years the LibDems have been seen as Labour’s lapdogs and there is now clear evidence up and down the country that Scottish electors are as happy to blame the LibDems for many of the country’s ills as they are Labour.
Examples include the debacle over the Donald Trump golf plan for Aberdeenshire, temporarily scuppered on the casting vote of a LibDem councillor which so spooked the local LibDems that they recently tried and failed to expel him from the LibDem group. Another is the damning report into the handling of the City of Aberdeen’s finances over the last 3 years where the LibDem council leader refuses to resign.
I repeat the offer Mike to do a piece on the Scottish situation for the next GE, seat by seat.
1) It would take an earthquake for the LibDems to lose Ross, Skye and Inverness W because Charles Kennedy has an immense popular vote and having known him since we were students, he is one of the most likeable parliamentarians. (Incidentally Charles was a heavy drinker at University so I was surprised it came as a surprise to everyone outside the Westminster village and for the record I dont think it made much difference to his performances. Along with William Hague and Tony Benn, he is arguably in the handful of best parliamentary debaters of the past 25 years)
2) It would take anoter earthquake for Alistair Carmichael to lose Orkney and Shetland. He is fairly high profile, extremely affable and hasn’t really done anything wrong.
3) My home seat of Caithness, Sutherland and E Ross should be a safe LibDem hold and again Viscount Thurso known as John Thurso is very popular and seen as effective but a strong SNP candidate unlike Rob Gibson who stood last time, could just do it.
4 Inverness should go SNP as Danny Alexander the sitting LibDem while very personable is a weak performer whereas Fergus Ewing the Holyrood incumbent is very strong.
5) Argyll will be a truly 3 way marginal though I think it is now a case of whether it will be the Tories or SNP who take it and not whether the LibDems can hold.
6) In the north-east, Gordon should still be safe LibDem country but Alex Salmond now sits as the local MSP and it is a seat the Tories are desperate to get back though probably not this time.
7) Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine is a two-way marginal fight between the Tories and LibDems and I would be surprised if the Tories dont throw the kichen sink at this one, especially if there is a Tory by-election gain somewhere before the next GE. Sir Robert Smith (Baronet) the sitting LibDem is again very personable but not very effective and Alex Johnstone, a very high profile Tory MSP is having another crack at this seat.
9) Edinburgh West should also be safe LibDem but again it took one candidate 3 attempts to take it from Lord James Douglas Hamilton and now a large majority should be substantially reduced but this will probably only become a LibDem-Tory marginal against after the next GE
10) East Dunbartonshire is really a LibDem-Labour marginal and it was taken in 2005 by Jo Swinson for the LibDems and she became their youngest MP. Not seen as particularly effective, she was sacked as LibDem Shadow Scottish Secretary by Sir Ming Campbell before he was toppled nd I think this could be Labour’s one gain at the GE.
11) Finally from a Tory point of view the best prospect. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SElkirk is a LibDem-SNP-Tory 3 way marginal but the momentum is probably with the Tories who took Roxburgh and Berwickshire from the LibDems last year on a 9% swing, taking 1300 more votes than the sitting LibDem Euan Robson had done 4 years earlier. The neighbouring seat of Tweedale, Ettrick and Lauderdale which had been the main SNP target was held by the LibDem Jeremy Purvis.
So to conclude, of their current 11 seats in Scotland I expect the LibDems to hold 5 of their current seats and lose 6.
@87:
Do you know what causes a signal failure on the LU, and how they fix it?
“Incidentally Charles was a heavy drinker at University so I was surprised it came as a surprise to everyone outside the Westminster village and for the record I dont think it made much difference to his performances.”
Quite right. Ming’s performance in the 2004 budget debate was excellent
@88.
I repeat the offer Mike to do a piece on the Scottish situation for the next GE, seat by seat.
Just write it and send it to him.
89 - Half a century of underinvestment?
Matthew Parris thinks the Conservatives should be honest with the electorate in the next two years;
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article4035985.ece
I find GeorgeH’s explanations for Oaten not going for a by-election convincing, which is a shame as I was looking forward to giving my ARSE a decent airing in the rarified atmosphere of Winchester !!
Of course Henley is perfect territory for a bit of ARSE and the prospect of that substantial organ meandering along the Thames tunefully trilling the Eton Boating Song with a not inconsiderable floral expression exploding forth for a wonderful electoral riparian extravaganza !!
The Economist referst to a YouGov poll fromMarch about the public’s views of different aspects of detention issues. It puts it in the context of Brown’s current political predicament but does point out:
‘Encouragingly for Mr Brown, voters did not think innocent people would fall victim to the new detention limit, and only 7% wanted to retain both 28 days and the ban on post-charge questioning. However, voters preferred post-charge questioning as an alternative to a 42-day limit by a large margin.’
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11455036
The full report of the poll is here - I don’t know if this has been covered by Mike yet (apologies if he has), but I thought it was interesting in the run up to the vote on the issue.
http://www.yougov.com/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/Liberty%20results%2008%2003%2027%20(2).pdf
@92:
Actually, no. The problem is more to do with the age more than anything else.
LU uses a fixed-block signalling system, and each section of track is a closed circuit, isolated from every other section of track.
Due to expansion, normal shifting of tracks, weights of trains etc, the rails sections frequently come into contact at the gaps between sections.
When this happens, the sections short out, and the trains refuse to drive into the combined shorted-out track. This is a signal failure.
The way you repair a signal failure is to send a man with a hammer and a wedge into the tunnel. He puts the wedge between the two bits of track, and hits it with a hammer, until the shorted tracks seperate. That’s how LU fixes a signal failure.
Now, bear in mind, we were giving TRANSPORT ADVICE.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
@93:
Look, electorate, I’m not very fond of your hair. Also, the way you crack your knuckles is irritating. And I hate your mother.
It’s nothing personal, electorate, we’ve been together a long time now, and I just wanted to be honest with you, that’s all.
Also, I’ve been seeing a younger, fitter electorate with a HUGE ‘certainty to vote’ whilst you were at work. Hope you don’t mind.
77,
Sure, if there were an oversupply of oil, then dropping the price of a batch is a good idea.
But the current balance between supply and demand (as signalled by prices) doesn’t really support that.
To be fair, prices were uncertain 18 months ago (when the deal was being negotiated) and, following some rises through to mid ‘06, slipped back to ‘04/’05 levels briefly. So, for a few weeks, it may have been an OK deal for Venezuela.
Since early ‘07 (the majority of the time since the deal was signed), the price has risen frighteningly - so there’s unlikely to be any shortfall in demand for the Venezuelan supply.
Re 23 The Last Liberal by-election defeat in a seat held by them was Carmarthen in 1956, when former Liberal MP Lady Megan Lloyd George took that seat for Labour
(98 PS: However, if they were to spend a lot of money on dramatically increasing the quality of the Metropolitan line outside of Zone 1, I might find my principles harder to hold to on the grounds of “rip anyone off we like, just stop shaking me off of my seat on the Tube”
)
96 - For all the jokes, the idea that we don’t have transport expertise in London that could be useful to the developing world is ridiculous.
Whether it was seriously desired by the Venezualans is another matter…
95 Voters may not think that innocent people would fall victim but then voters probably didn’t think Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act would result in Local Authorities getting and using powers to spy on people, their homes, obtain their telephone records and discover who they are e-mailing.
88 - I would think it’s very unlikely that Berwickshire etc will be a three way fight. It was the 4th worst SNP result in 2005. Times may have changed but not that much. And although they did quite well in Tweeeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale, some of their stronger areas their aren’t in the Berwickshire constituency.
I’m increasingly confident that the seat will be a two way fight that the Tories will win.
The only other possible Tory gains I can see from the Libs up here are if West Aberdeenshire and Argyll & Bute become three way contests but predicting those seats will be very tricky.
96 - BTW what are “age-related problems” if they aren’t symptoms of lack of investment?
102 - Local Authorities always had those powers and more. The RIPA actually regulated and restricted what they could do, it didn’t, contrary to popular belief, extend their powers.
The only difference now is that everything is recorded to ensure it is in accordance with the law, and in combination with the DP/FoI Acts has come into the public domain.
The “LA Times” looks at McCain’s YouTube problems :
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onmedia30-2008may30,0,1308565.story
105 - Scrap that, debateably true for the whole act. Certainly true in the case of the various “spy” cases that are regularly in the media.
195 Simple answer to that is no they didn’t - prior to RIPA there was indeed a less co-ordinated approach to surveillance and it improved regulation of much police & security service activity in terms of providing an audit trail. However in 2000 there were only 9 agencies permitted to invoke it. The great libertarian and protector of civil liberties David Blunkett extended it to councils, education, job centres etc. so now nearly 800 organisations can invoke it and the people empowered to do so are now relatively junior management ranks.
88 - an interesting, if rather biased analysis. It would be disappointing if those results were borne out next election. I think we will do rather better than that, but I would say that, wouldn’t I?
Re: Winchester, as a LD on this site I am rather damned if I do and damned if I don’t.
If I say the LDs should win I will be accused of being a LD in cloud cuckoo land, and I should look at the huge Tory poll lead.
If I say the LDs won’t win, I will be accused of deliberately playing down expectations, so any result can be spun as good.
109 as a footnote though, I never liked Oaten. Had he become party leader, I would have resigned.
109 - On the basis that you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t, just say what you actually think. And what did you dislike so much about Mark Oaten?
108 - If local councils were not allowed to carry out directed surveillance (basically watching someone they already suspect) then they would have no effective weapon for combating fraud against them.
I am confident we’d take Winchester. I said yesterday that we’d take it handsomely because we’d put an outrageously large effort into it. Europe should be a real issue in the campaign, because much of the LD vote is plague-on-both-your-houses stuff, and LD voters do not like actual LD policies.
Europe is a prime issue against them. A much-covered campaign bringing this up again and again will help not only in Winchester, but also in Eastleigh where IWAR got a huge result, and in Somerton & Frome and all those other Eurosceptic seats in the SW with sitting LibDem MPs.
I would absolutely love to fight a LibDem stronghold next. National spotlight on LibDem policy. Yes please.
Post 40. really shows the Lib Dems in their worst possible light, doesn’t it? Poor old Mike treated to a hysterical attack for daring to even suggest that the Lib Dems might not sweep to victory across the land.
‘Smithson is an apostate! stone him!’ cried the Orange mob.
and in Somerton & Frome …
..clues again!!
111 - he backed ID cards once upon a time. “Tough liberalism” - I never really got that. I saw Oaten speak once at a dinner. He was personable enough, but just came over a a PR man.
I think the LDs would certainly hold Winchester in a GE, but a by-election would be close.
As for Scotland, I would say that Argyll and Bute and Ber, Rox and Selk look vulnerable; the others I think will be retained. A lot depends on whether Salmond keeps it up.
113 - ” but also in Eastleigh where IWAR got a huge result”
Probably me being thick but was is IWAR?
117 - or even “what is IWAR?”
117, I Want A Referendum
SBS I want a referendum - they organised a private referendum in Eastleigh (Huhne opposed one) and got a massive turnout and yes vote.
119 - thanks. Thought it was something like that.
120 - was the private referendum the whole constituency? What was the turnout and result?
112 We have organisations empowered to investigate fraud - the police force and specialist departments in particular agencies. We don’t need such powers available to any department or agency of the state or local government.
Neither I would contend should overfilling rubbish bins be a criminal matter and it says much about the authoritarian approach to state education that such powers are used to decide if a child has the right to enter a particular school.
115 - Lol. You’re not suggesting… Would fit i suppose
123, people have a right to be safe, Ted. If a bin is open by an inch just think of the effect on crime. Think about it.
It is insane. The government has legislative diarrhoea. I eagerly await the “Being Mean Criminality Act” where they will outlaw being unkind and love and sweetness will consume the entire nation.
I’m just glad that the public have woken up to the dangers of the ID card system and (worse still) the enormous database that would be a part of it.
Ahh! found it now.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/display.var.2087045.0.eastleigh_residents_vote_for_referendum.php
A pressure group ballotted 2/3 of the constituency (which 2/3 and why) and turnout was 38%. Nothing massive there.
Now the anti-referendum bods did not run a campaign. But come the GE, the LDs will actually campaign in Eastleigh.
Personally I think this IWAR gives as much indication of the GE in Eastleigh as a teletext poll. Over to Mark Senior to point out how many Tory councillors in Eastleigh constituency…
123 - The police have neither the time nor the resources, nor the motivation, to go around investigating suspected low level fraud against local councils - Blue badge fraud and the like.
I agree there should be a line, but with never ending pressure on local councils to reduce costs you can’t expect them to deny them the relatively harmless means of doing so. Are you objecting to the fact that they are allowed to carry out surveillance, or objecting to the things that they are allowed to do it for.
Intercepting communications etc is a different matter, but then they don’t do much of that, if any.
125 - “I’m just glad that the public have woken up to the dangers of the ID card system”
Unfortunately, they haven’t yet.
But at least the Tory party belatedly have.
Polls suggest that ID cards are popular. Wanna referendum on them?
126, what campaign could they have mounted?
“We promised you a referendum but they changed the order of the words and added a comma so you don’t deserve one now”?
I think both EU-sceptics and people of all shades with a sense of fair play are disgusted at the underhand, conniving, deceitful signing of the Lisbon Treaty.
The reason EU-philes didn’t campaign is the same reason they never campaign and never give us a vote: they know they’d lose. SO much for being Liberal DEMOCRATS.
128, I think every party that committed to a referendum on them should vote for one, like with the Lisbon Treaty.
Welcome back, Big Mak, shame you are still talking nonsense.
“Cameron is a clever bastard, he has done little and just swept up the anti-Labour feeling at the moment. Even the rabid Tories here will know that be in Crew or London they have not won the hearts and minds of the nation.
I work in London and while many voted Tory hardly any did so out of love of the party, its leader or its policies.”
Replace the words Cameron and Tories with the words Blair and Labour (and vice versa) and you have the precise situation in 1997.
There seems to be some delusion amongst the centre-left that the public somehow “fell in love with Labour and Blair” in the mid-90s, which makes the present surly mood of the electorate even harder to bear - like a blissful romance turned into a terrible marriage.
This is total rubbish. The people never loved Blair or New Labour - they simply hated the Tories, by 1997, and would have voted for literally anyone who looked vaguely capable of replacing them. New Labour looked vaguely capable, so they got the job.
But “love”? Give over. Look at the popular vote. Major got more votes in 1992 than Blair ever did, in any of his victories. Were the people in love with John Major? Edwina maybe, but anyone else?
So enough of this “the people don’t love the Tories, therefore they aren’t doing well” bollocks. The people don’t have to “give their hearts and minds” to the Tories to vote for them; they just need to hate Brown and Labour. And boy do they hate Brown and Labour.
Remember the truism: governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them. On that basis, Cameron is doing splendidly.
124. Alex - yes, it would wouldn’t it?
109: yes, I’m familiar with that dilemma, SBS!
As the Winchester boundary changes are helpful to the LDs, I’d think they’d be seriously keen not to have a by-election on the old boundaries. They’ve far more to lose than gain - the best possible result would be that they hold a safe-looking seat comfortably, which would be a so-what outcome. If they lost then there would be significant reverberations.
Even if Mark Oaten does get a job away from the constituency, he doesn’t actually have to quit - there are several MPs (George Galloway springs to mind) who are not exactly assiduous in their attendance. Local councils are much fiercer in their rules on attendance than Parliament is - perhaps something else that we ough tto be looking at changing while we debate allowances etc.
133. Perhaps MPs should be paid a day rate/attendence allowance. If it were retrospective we could claw back hundreds of thousands from Blair and Mme Mao.
132 - Where can i get a bet on Tory defeat?
133 - I think I am right in saying that there are financial disadvantages to stepping down mid term. Nick, do you know?
Jane Griffiths was placed in a similar situation in Reading East. There was endless local speculation she would step down. But she did not. I think Labour would have lost a by-election. In the event the Tories gained the seat at the GE.
Anyone mentioned s**t eating grins yet?
Um, allegedly.
135. Sadly I suspect the said person may well win. If one result could go against the head it would be nice if it were that one, though.
40. completely uncalled for.
June the 18th will be cleggs first 6 months a point at which most leaders are defined in the public mood. This period will in effect be extended to Henley which will mark the end of his begining. What have we had so far.
the case for the prosecution is
1. winning by 511 votes despite massive, overwhelming establishment support. It was his to lose and he nearly did weakening him out of the gate
2. The Euro fiasco for which I can still think of no rationale explaination
3. the clegg-over interview
4. electorally its all rather ambigious. gains in the locals but vote share down a point on what ming got in 2007. Crewe was probably unavoidable but speaks of stalled momentum.
The case for the defence is
1. he inherited a shambles
2. every pollster is showing us up 2 or 3% since he took over
3. he’s got about a bit and seems inoffensive and pleasent when on TV.
he has not been a disaster or even bad. However at 5 months plus its difficult to see how he has defined himself in the public mind and the jury is still out.
Thast why i suspect everyone is so obsessed with Henley. A big swing against the Tories and it will draw a veil over some of my early points and allow him to efectively relaunch. It its similar to 2005 then the ambiguity will remain.
If we move backwards ( and have you seen the polls ?) then i will personally put a tenner on him not leading us in the GE.
All mike is doing is airing some of what is obvious to everyone outside the bunker
Unfortunatly the public will always take the view that the tougher a government is, in relation to crime, the better. Longer detention without trial. ID Cards. And so on. Civil liberties will always take a back seat to the fear of crime. Fortunatly we have the Tories and Lib-Dem’s that are willing to stand up against the public mood on this and defend our ancient and longstanding civil liberties, even though the public mood will remain with the government on this.
133. As a councillor you on;y have to attend one meeting every six months. And that can be for 5 minutes to sign the attendence sheet.
Also GG claims he is in Parliament every day. he just doesn’t vote very often and as aone man band you can see why.
38 HenryG - Although I unfortunately missed your tennis suggestion yesterday, I’m on Robredo today at evens - thanks for that!
I used to miss quite a few tips from yourself and others, as it can take quite a long time to wade through hundreds of posts daily - but a PBer recently mentioned the f + Control facility, which for me is a real find and means I can find all your posts, say, in seconds.
139. NO! Surely the Lib-Dems can dispatch another leader? You’ve simply got to stick with Clegg until the election. Another change of leader in this Parliament would be tantamount to electoral suicide, IMO.
126. rubbish the message? It was 2/3rd because they went allowed access to the full electoral register, so could only ballot those who hadnt opted out.
Lets get a big of facts an figures shall we? 38% is a much higher turnout then normal local government elections. 38% resulted in 20361 people taking part, with no canvassing, no get out the vote etc.
Of those that took part:
Yes, I Want a referendum 18,370 (90.2%)
Do not want to ratify Lisbon Treaty (90.7%)
The election results in 2005 for Eastleigh, with political parties having full access to the electoral register, media coverage and *heavy heavy* get out the vote from all sides was:
Chris Huhne Liberal Democrat 19,216
Conor Burns Conservative 18,648
Chris Watt Labour 10,238 20.6
139. “The Euro fiasco for which I can still think of no rationale explaination”
I worked out the explanation for Clegg’s Euro-contortions the other day. Even if he and his party had voted a referendum through, as promised, in the Commons, the more europhile Lib Dems in the Lords would have united, en masse, with most of Labour, and some europhile Tory peers, to vote it down again.
The LD peers made this intention quite plain when they refused to even abstain, as asked by Clegg.
That would have left Clegg with the worst of all worlds - a party split right down the middle on a fundamental issue - with his MPs for a referendum, and his peers against. Disastrous. Could have possibly broken the party in two.
Add to that Clegg’s natural cowardice and europhilia - how often they go together! - and you have the explanation.
144 - You can’t have it both ways. Either Europe is THE defining issue in Eastleigh, or it isn’t.
Re the recently spouted line that “pb.com is crawling with Tories”.
With nearly 50% of the population claiming to support them in current polls, is it really a surprise? And it can’t be laid at the door of the Tories if the other parties (Labour in particular) don’t exactly feel like coming out to play these days.
For what it’s worth (probably FA), I think we still get pretty broad coverage of all aspects of the current state of the parties and players, as that affects betting and stuff. But clearly us Tories have a spring in our step and are wearing our hats at a jaunty angle…
139. Clegg will lead the Lib Dems into the general election no matter what. I was disappointed with his performance in the leadership contest and over the European debate, but he’s picked things up a bit. The local elections went better than expected in most of the country, and - crucially - I think he’s started to develop a narrative (of breaking out of our present political system, decentralizing power, and preserving individual rights) that works against both Labour and the Tories. Certainly this is more than Ming achieved, and I think that it is more than Kennedy achieved.
I think that, intellectually, Lib Dem policies look more coherent now than at any point since 1997. Though I’m not sure about Henley and Winchester, I’m very much looking forward to Clegg, Cable, Huhne and co. taking the fight to Labour and the Tories on tax, public services, law and order and the environment at the next general election.
138 - well i don’t know, depends on the candidate really
Can anyone REALLY object to having a few more 30 year old women in the House of Commons?
Apparently she’s been an active member of the Conservative Party since the age of seven!!! No family indoctrination there then
143. It would be electoral suicide however (a) the party seems incapable of comming to terms with the Tory brand decontamination (b) its has ditched two leaders in two years in panicky circumstances.
I am not advocating Clegg going at all. I’m just suggesting he’s using his nine lives up at a very accelerated rate.
142 - Must have missed the explanation for the “f + control facility” in retrieving old posts. Would you mind explaining how it works?
146. What are you on about?
When people were asked, this was their response. A properly conducted poll of course would have got far more pro lisbon treaty taking part, but that opportunity wasnt open to them.
The issue of the treaty and the lack of a referendum was of great importance to a large number of people. But, when it comes to General elections party loyalties, individual MPs and the general national polity come into the decision making process.
The importance of the referendum is, that all the parties promised one, and then the Labour party with the support of the libs cheated the populace out of one.
So from those numbers we can deduce that IWAR got out ALL the 2005 Tories to vote for a referendum - whilst ALL the 2005 the LibDems and Labour sat on their hands, embarrassed by their party’s refusal to give the pledged referendum. Sort of.
145. Wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) have mattered if the Lords had voted it down - it was a manifesto commitment and therefore their Lordship’s opposition becomes irrelevant. Assuming an honest government, that is - not a given.
144, 146 - at the risk of seanT shouting me down… the public still don’t regard Europe as a defining issue when it comes to GEs. Now that could all be about to change; I don’t know.
But will the Tory line in Eastleigh in two years’ time in a GE be to attack Chris Huhne for his opposition to a referendum in 2008? Whilst this may still be in the minds of the electors in 2010, it will be old news.
The Tories will need to campaign on more than just Europe.
153 - Yes, there does seem to be a smidgen of a suggestion of a statistical correlation between those who voted, those who wanted a referendum, and those who wanted to reject the treaty. Probably a coincidence though
Checked out Paddy Power to see how the YES/NO betting is going on the Lisbon referendum. Betting has moved slightly suggesting YES is becoming less likely, and NO more likely.
YES was 1/4, now 2/7 on 26th May according to Mike Smithson. No was 5/2, now 9/4. I think I’m reading right and should add that I’m understander of betting markets. The move in the price is significant however two weeks out from the vote, and with unofficial reports from the NO campaign becoming increasingly bouyant.
I’ve posted a couple of these reports on my blog. Mike thought on the 26th that the vote will be close but resulting with a slight victory for the YES. One poster alleges that Irish polling is not all that reliable, so reports from ground level are interesting.
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2008/05/ireland-another-unofficial-report-says.html
138 - Disagree, I’d go for the celebrity Big Brother.
153. You supposed that 90% of Tories would vote against the lisbon treaty, i doubt that, a hard core of people on all sides are in favour of further integration into the EU and joining the Euro. I would say a good 20 to 30% of tories are probably in that mindset and a good more libdems.
I suspect the poll while self selecting to those who both want a referendum and want to vote no, its party political bias isnt probably as strong as those numbers suggest.
apologies for spelling errors but I think you can follow my drift.
149. See what you mean but there’s a bit of a contrast between the outer appearence of the candidate and the inner self, or so it seems….
161 - Well only if the supposition is correct. I see that the candidate is noted for being a firm Euro-sceptic, but I’ll need to ferret around for any opinions on the Iraq war…
Interesting this talk of Winchester and Oaten,
In a pub i go into on the odd occasion i was talking to a member of staff the other day who hails from Winchester. Apparently there is indeed quite a bit of talk that Oaten is either wanting another shot or talking of departing! The local wrag has apparently put a number of stories in it about oaten!
I don’t think Oaten has Clegg over a barrel on this issue, it maybe just that Oaten wants the pleasure of dumping on Clegg from a great height!
I think the real thing one has to look at is both Labour and the Liberal Democrats are in retreat because of the electoral cycle. Liberal Democrat’s voices are increasingly failing of deaf ears. There will be much Liberal Democrat blood at the next election of that i am sure.
Interesting watching election 1983 yesterday, it struck me that the Labour leadership then has many parellels to that of the government now and the tories upto 1997. That is the politicians were claped out and ideas tested to destruction. In many ways 1983 was the last stand of the 1970’s Labour politicians as 1997 was the last stand for the 1980’s Tories. I think this next GE may well be the last stand of the Labour 1990’s politicians. Maybe it’s more genrational than we think?
162 - Add the Catholic connection.
151 John O, if you press Ctrl and F on the keyboard, it brings up a ‘find’ box. Type in whatever you want to find and hey presto.
Another good search technique IMO is google’s ‘advanced search’ where you can limit the search to only this website ‘politicalbetting.com’ rather than the whole www and conduct similar searches.
139 - Clegg has to be stuck with at least until the next election; the fact that it’s because of just over 500 people and the postal system is the sort of twist of fate which has changed political outcomes since whenever.
Unfortunately he’s the right man at precisely the wrong time and, however much this was pointed out during the election, the powers that be wouldn’t have it.
The LibDems might be doing a little bit better under Clegg, but I think more of they climb above the Ming levels has to do with the collapse of Labour. Remember, the low point of LibDem polling was at the height of the Brown bounce.
165 - Thanks. Much appreciated.
161 She could always follow the example of the Hon Anthony Wedgewood-Benn and become Annie Mogg or perhaps the family connection could be hidden Jack Mogg and Ann Rees
re: Irish referendum.
The people vote?
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87764
164. Plus the numerous references to Somerton & Frome…
165 I should add - the Ctrl F search only works for the single page that you are looking. It won’t find reference on previous threads. If you want to do that, then play around with google’s advanced search.
Enough of the speculation. I don’t think it’s right to try and out people who don’t want to be outed.
170, hahaha, I do hope those lovely Irish people do us an enormous favour and tell the EU to sod off.
173. I think we’ve probably done enough now
165/9 - talking to yourself again John O?
155. I agree, Europe is not a defining issue for the centrist switcher. What is important to the centrist switcher are usually bread and butter issues such as the economy, Inflation, Jobs, house prices etc. Where the Europe issue comes into it’s own is galvinising Tory opinion to the polls. You have to be a broad church to win an election and offer a program to all supporters that conforms to a philosphophy. In many ways the Tories heavily anti EU stateism agenda is a continuation of the individualism and lower tax / less state intervention ideology.
176 - OK, I know who you’ve been referring to, but why?
167. And, for those seats in the South, the churn rate might be masking a very serious issue of lib voters flocking to the Tories, and libs getting rising numbers from labour defectors (entirely unconnected is my original mis spelling of defector, resulted in my ff spellchecker suggesting ‘defecate’ as an cunningly appropriate alternative).
I would suggest that in many of the Southern seats we have an awful lot more liberal voters switching to the Tories, then Labour voters switching to Libdems.
177 -
Forget about the first sign of madness, I’m on the 26th…
Any polls due tonight?
136: Sorry, not sure what the position is if people step down voluntarily in mid-Parliament - never occurred to me to check! I think you still get the winding-up allowance, though there was a proposal to stop that.
141: GG says that? He doesn’t just not vote, he doesn’t normally say anything either - according to TheyWorkForYou he has only spoken once since last July. And I have to say I almost never see him, though perhaps he’s holed up in his office. His total postage last year was £163, so he doesn’t seem to be doing much constituency work either, though the previous year it was £0. What, seriously, is the case for electing someone who almost never votes or speaks, unless one wants to object to being part of the UK system altogether (Sinn Fein voters)?
179. Do try to keep up dear chap.
154. Agreed, of course - but it would have looked very bad.
I also read that some LibDem peers, like Shirley Williams, the hogfaced old trout that she is, bless her, actually threatened to resign unless Clegg broke his promise and betrayed his country. So it would have been very messy, presentationally.
155. Again agreed (I must be in a good mood - guess because I’m going to the Far East, hooray!) - I have never claimed (well, hardly ever) that Europe is a burning, election-turning issue.
But it is an important slow-burning issue, one of those things (like Devolution for Scots prior to 97) that niggles away in the back of the voter’s mind - adding to a vague but definite sense of injustice. That in turn corrodes faith and trust in the government-of-the-day, which eventually leads to apathy and disenchantment with all politics.
This, needless to say, is Not A Good Thing.
I do remember Shirley Williams getting herself completely and utterly gutted on Question Time a fair few months ago on the issue.
She was completely exposed as a lying hypocrite.
183. Interesting point that in the second paragraph about why bother electing people who do not vote etc. On Oaten, it’s not surprising that he does not vote attend as you suggest. I bet he is a parliamentry lepper as people would not wish to be associated / tainted by the “oaten” label. Would you share a platform with him Nick?
183. Who is GG?
188. GG is CC
188 - George Galloway.
What is Oaten’s parliamentary attendance like now?
Shirley Williams is a grandee, but has always remained a social democrat, rather than a liberal democrat.
188. Ahh, George Galloway, read up thread.
Sorry, I thought NickP was on about Oaten? I realise he now means Galloway!
Galloway is a strange one - Why biother standing for election if you don’t really want the job?
192 - but because you so want Oona King not to have the job.
192. to defeat a self serving horrid MP, who lacked a spine and was indicative of everything that is third rate about the then Labour PP.
Nick P @ 183 & M
I don’t think you get the resettlement allowance if you resign or retire mid parliament.
Martin Day at 187, G @ 188
I think Nick was talking about George Galloway not Mark Oaten.
158 Re the Irish referendum, things are looking a bit better for the No vote, if the media-take is anything to go by.
Tying it up with Google, if you type “irish referendum” in to Google News, and read the headlines from the last 24 hours you’ll see that they don’t make great reading for Yes campaigners. Here are some of the headlines:
‘Yes’ side has yet to convince on treaty
SIPTU won’t back ‘Yes’ vote before deal on worker rights
We must not surrender our democracy to a faceless EU
Two weeks to go - Make sure it’s ‘No’ to Lisbon
Red C seem to be the only ones polling this contest. It was suggested here by someone with local knowledge last week that there’s no special reason to disbelieve their findings.
194 - I always had a soft spot for Oona King, never lived up to her own hype I’ll admit, but are far more assured and engaging politican than some of the non-entities we’re lumbered with as ministers and hangers on under Brown at the moment.
193. & 194: Seems a strange motivation but i suppose it is the ultimate career killer - losing a safe seat to an outsider with a new political party.
Mind you I can never understand people who go into parliament just to follow a whip they don’t agree with for party purposes. I would be kicked out of a parliamentry party really quickly for being a pain in the arse! I don’t think i would ever be selected as a candidate so that was an irrelevant comment!
Plus i am not a member of a political party due to being banned! 
Re: Eastleigh. If Europe were a defining issue for switchers and waverers, following the Eastleigh IWAR poll the Lib Dems would be in freefall there.
As it was on May 1 they took out the last Tory councillor in the Eastleigh seat and, IIRC, won every seat but one. Yes, you can say these are council elections but I think it points out that “schools-n-ospitals” etc resonates much more.
199, Europe isn’t the only aspect though, it’s the breaking of a manifesto pledge that’s more damaging.
199. Fair enough - but the Lib Dems did very well in the council elections in 2004 as well but still struggled to hold on at the GE a year later.
And remember - only a few hundred votes need to switch for Huhne to be kicked out.
199. So why not let people have a referendum? In a fair and just society, those who have denied us the referenda would be strung up from lampposts by their necks.
190. But that is what the Liberals got in 1988, when they decided to merge with the left-wing half of the SDP. What is so striking is not that there is policy diversity within the Lib Dems, but how rare serious philosophical debates are.
FWIW I think that the SDP grandees in the Lords (for which, read Williams and Rodgers - I’m not so sure about Tom McNally) are the only ones who weren’t “Liberalised” during the 1980s and 1990s. The Vince Cables and Charles Kennedys of this world are practically indistinguishable from former Liberals.
The best Shirley Williams story is in David Steel’s autobiography, where Williams is talking to Steel at Koenigswinter in 1981 and slowly coming to terms with what the Alliance will mean. “So - you mean - will we have to be in favour of PR?” You bet, Shirley.
200 - Your assuming LibDem voters take much notice of the LibDem manifesto… for the most part being the “anti-politics party” is enougth for the LibDem with specific polices not comming into it, the key thing in ‘05 was that for the first time in a long while the LibDem became a ‘policy party’ in the eyes of many voters thanks to Iraq - how that plays out with the decline of Iraq as a live issue is unclear.
202. Quite so.
I read a Charlie Brooker column the other day, in which he tried to explain to himself - and his readers - why he was still a leftie. He concluded that, from his perspective, he could sum up rightwing beliefs and rightwingers in general with one word: selfish.
This is a gross misrepresentation, of course (as he admitted, tongue in cheek); yet there is some truth in it. The right is, in general, more selfish - or more accepting of human selfishness - than the left.
So I tried to come up with one word that, for me, sums up the left and leftwingers in general. It didn’t take me long. The obvious word is: traitors.
I think deep down virtually all leftwing people, especially in Britain, are traitors. They want to betray their own country, because they hate themselves, their own class, their parents, everything. They are therefore traitors. This is of course a gross oversimplification, but I think it is nonetheless, at heart, true,
Just look at their history of treachery. Fifty years ago most lefties were desperate to betray Britain to communism and the Soviet Union. Since then they’ve had a bash at destroying the country with immigration and multiculturalism; one of their pet projects is to dissolve the country they hate - their own country - in a bizarre transcontinental Union.
Such indeed is their lust to betray the country, they don’t even care that this new Federal Union is itself hideously cerrupt and far less democratic than the nation state.
All they care about is their own treachery, and seeing it concluded.
And on that fairminded note I’m off to Selfridges to buy an anorak.
Governments break manifesto pledges all the time. Usually, though, they say things like “only a long term ambition, not feasible at this time, unexpected difficulties encountered, Ken really was quite a good chap…”. It’s the lack of honesty that grates with Gordon, rather than the breaking of the “pledge” itself.
202. My point wasn’t about the referendum, which peronally I couldn’t care less about (do I therefore get away with just a little light hanging, from a short lamppost?
)
It was about the idea that Europe would really do over the Liberals in any Winchester by-election. It wouldn’t.
207. No, it’s rather what the Europe vote showed - that the Lib Dems in extremis will always prop up Labour and can’t be trusted to keep their promises - that would hurt the yellow peril in Winchester.
205 - OK, so you’re the ultimate wind-up/p*ss-taking merchant, but Ernest Bevin, Clem Attlee and George Orwell as traitors? Perhaps that courageous, virile, patriotic man of letters, Tom Knox, might have a quiet word in yr ear?
202: “So why not let people have a referendum? In a fair and just society, those who have denied us the referenda would be strung up from lampposts by their necks.”
I think we have an increasingly clear idea of how the impending one-party state will operate. And I doubt whether my own (Lib-Dem) MP, who voted for the referendum will be granted special clemency.
202. The proper punishment for traitors is traditionally hanging, drawing and quartering. Why do you propose clemency?
209. Didn’t the left think Orwell was a traitor?
182. I suspect the only two polls most people will be interested in tonight will be who will play Nancy and willl the dog win Britain’s Got Talent.
Bound to be a couple of new polls though.
212 will we ever have a non yougov poll with a 20%+ lead???
94 GIN. Matthew Parris is always worth reading - a very wise man. Everyone here should add their voice to what he is saying and hope thar DC is listening.
“The Vince Cables and Charles Kennedys of this world are practically indistinguishable from former Liberals.”
Squiffites or Lloyd-Georgians?
I think we’re all out of polls for May? The next is likely to be Populus sometime next week, I would have though?
197. When Oona King was working for Brown’s leadership campaign she wrote that his housing policies were ‘fab’ for young people. The only thing she engaged was my reflex to vomit.
214. Matthew Parris is great. His column is always the first thing I look at when I sign online on a Saturday morning. Cup of tea and Matthew Parris, thats the first thing I do when I get up on a Saturday.
216 - Mori should have done one by now but they’re currently “reviewing” their methodology so may not publish it for a while. (they took their archive off line and are so far a couple of weeks late in putting it back).
140 Yellow Submarine. “Have you seen the polls”? What polls - are there local Henley polls? What are the local Henley press saying,if anything?
220. The tories are probably on about 70% at the moment!
Actually i have just been on electoral calcus and given the last opinion poll realesed as the input benchmark:
2005 Votes 2005 Share User Prediction
CON 26,281 53.39% 65.23%
LIB 13,044 26.50% 21.16%
LAB 7,051 14.32% 4.30%
OTH 2,846 5.78% 9.31%
CON Majority 13,237 26.89% Pred Maj 44.07% CON Hold
This of course does not take into account differentiated turnout. Wonder if Labour will lose their deposit.
I think the LD’s would need to get 45 - 50% of the vote short of winning. If the LD’s do not get that then Clegg will be toast!
I still think Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock!
Robredo roundly thrashed in the tennis. He game didn’t show up. Apologies everyone.
This is probably closer to the real result in Henley in the by-election:
Electorate 72,681 Turnout 0.00%
2005 Votes 2005 Share User Prediction
CON 26,281 53.39% 66.90%
LIB 13,044 26.50% 21.16%
LAB 7,051 14.32% 0.00%
OTH 2,846 5.78% 11.94%
CON Majority 13,237 26.89% Pred Maj 45.73% CON Hold
222 “I still think Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock!”
..but minus the charisma
209 John O.”This new Federal Union is itself hideously corrupt and far less democratic than the nation state” (SeanT).Are you saying this is not true ? Or are you saying you do not care? If untrue, perhaps you would explin why this opinion is incorrect.
224 Martin Day. Is it known what “others” would be standing? It seems to me your “others” % is too high, which could well add to the Con%.
186: ‘I do remember Shirley Williams getting herself completely and utterly gutted on Question Time a fair few months ago on the issue.’
Yes, I remember that. She was humilated by Nigel Farage. Most entertaining.
O/T Watching the 1983 Election yesterday I recalled that on that occasion - despite the Tory landslide - the polls did significantly overstate the Tories and somewhat understate the Labour vote. Perhaps, a bit like 1997 and 2001 when the result seemed a foregone conclusion - quite a few supporters of the leading party stayed at home.
226. Good point!
Labour could well be reduced to a few die hard supporters though! Think they would get 1% perhaps!
I really don’t see the LD strategy working in Henley, no local candidate - A candidate of the main opposition party when the main opposition party is much popular than the LD’s and Labour.
228. Yes it is an interesting program to watch the election 1983, I never realised what a ghastly person Cecil Parkinson came across as! Norman Tebbit rules though!
Kinnock seemed a better politician before he became Labour leader rather than once he had as well! My references to Nick Clegg being like Neil Kinnock is the course and trajectory of their initial few months in leadership!
Of course Kinnock was yet to fall in the sea and the other gaffes that littered his leadership!
228. As i said previously the 1983 election was a watershed in dealing a crushing blow to the 1970’s Labour politicians as 1997 was to the Tories 1980’s Politicians. Though getting late in the cycle 2010 will be a craching blow to the 1990’s Labour ones as well! Actually thinking about it, it is not late in the cycle, it seems to have happened every 13 years or so!
46 London Ricardo - I sympathise, but in fairness to Sporting, “palpable errors” do work both ways. A couple of years ago, I made a ghastly error on Spreadfair by placing an unintended huge stake on what was supposed to be my sell price and vice versa - this is very easily done as with them you enter the stake first and then the buy/sell price, whereas with Betfair, for example, the reverse is the case. When I telephoned them more in hope than expectation, they agreed to cancel most of my losses on the grounds of my having made a palpable error. I was able to advise Mike Smithson to do the same when he had the a similar misadvenure about 6 months ago and as a result he recovered approx £400, IIRC.
Nowadays, I always make a point of not only checking every bet, but of counting up to five, literally, before actioning it, although in Spreadfair’s case, this would be far less likely to happen on a substantial scale without triggering their very demanding deposit requirements.
More recently, Paddy Power attempted to void a number of successful bets placed by PBers in good faith, IIRC, on the result of the Kansas Republican Primary result, ultimately however they relented and paid out.
In your particular case, I agree it must be particularly galling having on a number of occasions had your bet vetted by someone supposedly authorised to approve these, only for the bets ultimately to be declared void.
It’s easy to be wise after the event of course, but I suppose you should have had a smaller bet (with a downside you could have tolerated should they have failed to spot their own error and the result had gone against you) and simply allowed it to run.
230. 13 unlikucky for some!
232. Maybe it will be an unlucky time for about 40 Liberal Democrat MP’s!
Clegg and Huhne included! 
Were you up for clegg and Huhne?
223 Not to worry Henry - I’m sure you’ll come up with one or two crackers in the second week.
233. Clegg was up for about 30, anyway…
(I’ll get my coat…)
Have to say i was extreamly amused by this class survey by Mori.
Maybe this is where Labour got the idea from the Toff campaign in C & N?
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/content/survey-on-class.ashx
A couple of things i noticed that made me laugh - the question “Eat peas with a knife”
- I have never seen anybody do this?
The Toilet / Lavatory question is also extreamly funny! Notice they did not use the term Carsy!!!
What a load of bull shit this class system thing is!
It’s like the place people shop for groceries can be said to define things. I have always been puzzled by the leader Waitrose in being the shop of choice for *upper class* people - I don’t think it is at all! just a supermarket. I think that’s why i regard the class thing as silly! I always note it is the lower class people who have a problem with class but can you blame them for this?
DNC rules committee streaming live on CNN for those still interested in Clinton/Obama Florida/Michigan saga……..!!
http://edition.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream2
Fist rule of reading Martin Day’s posts on pb.com , the more smillie faces they contain the more idiotic things he says . The other day he made several posts with no smillies which made some interesting and intelligent points , perhaps it was the thought that the new Conservative policy on the unemployed would send him to boot camp that brought a temporary change , sadly he is back to normal today .
Leadership Election Alert:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7429110.stm
Prescott hails ‘leader’ Miliband.
Former deputy labour leader John Prescott has thrown his weight behind David Miliband as leader!
238. Do eat peas off your knife mark?
238. sorry should say: Do you eat peas off your knife mark?
237 late starting, they can’t decide where to seat themselves!!! All standing and chattering…..
BBC election night 2010:
Jeremy Vine: We now have a graphic to show Nick Clegg’s deminished band of MP’s. Old Calimighty Clegg has lived upto his name. Just watch the Liberal democrat MP’s get into the yellow taxi - All six of them!!!
What’s this Nick Clegg and Chrish Huhne have not got this and Charles Kennedy is waiving out of the Taxi as Simon Hughes drives it! 
241 No I spear them with a fork pretending they are champer drinking Tory yobo friends of Mr Coxall
243. BBC election night 2010:
Jeremy Vine: We now have a graphic to show Nick Clegg’s deminished band of MP’s. Old Calimighty Clegg has lived upto his name. Just watch the Liberal democrat MP’s get into the yellow taxi - All six of them!!! What’s this Nick Clegg and Chrish Huhne have not got into this taxi and Charles Kennedy is waiving out of the Taxi as Simon Hughes drives it!
It looks like a six horse race to be next LD leader, never will a party have all it’s MP’s contesting a leadership election!
244. Class is a nonsense though! I have seen people from alsorts of classes indulge in strange eating habits/ living habits or shopping habits. Class is something that belongs to the pre second world war era IMO. The irony of the second world war is that whilst destroying many lives it actually helped smash the rigid class system that was enshrined within society.
211 Hanging, drawing and quartering women was regarded as indecent. They were lucky enough to be burned at the stake, for treason, instead.
46,231 — a complaint to IBAS may be in order, since the trader’s approval of the bet suggests the error was not palpable.
When - and for whom - is the next ICM survey? I was just called but got to the phone too late to take part.
I do wonder what is happening to the Labour party at the moment, It seems to be melting before your eyes:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/south_yorkshire/7425074.stm
Interestingly the BBC actually had this on their website. If it had been a Tory mayor of course it would have been on the front of their politics page like the Castle Point MP.
249 - How do you know it was ICM?
It’s a statistical miracle the number of people on here who claim to have been phone polled by ICM
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 46% .. Obama 43%
Clinton 43% .. Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
250 - What’s the story here? Labour Mayor wants to stand again so has to leave the party to do so. Surprised it made it out of the local media.
249, 251: It could have been Gordon calling…
I have never responded to blog sites before but i came accross this today- imagine what it is like to have 242 messages all about what you may do next- imagine what it is like to have the same old jokes and rubbish written about my private life. Yes i screwed up but if only you knew how wrong all the blogs and internet interprtaion was- it is amazing how people just run to a conclussion and then it becomes the truth within a few days. But you all hate me so much that there is little point trying to explain you will just add more hurtfull remarks.
i have not issued any statement to the press re job
i have ofcourse been planning for after the election- tricky as it could have been last november- imagine trying to get a new job but not sure when you will be free ?
i guess that these various meetings and chats are impossable to keep private and that it why it is in the press
it does me no good to have it all in the papers and i would like to just get on with being a mp and at the sametime prepare for the future.
i can say haveing read the 242 message- not a single one is close to the mark
i have kept martin tod, chris rennard, nick clegg and the tory candidate steve brine in the picture about all of this and done my best to be open about the future but its not easy given the amount of hate towards me and the desire some people have to cause trouble. Thankfuly people in winchester remain so nice and positive despite my mistakes- i wish the lib dem bloggers and others would show the same forgivness.
New Elway Presidential Poll for Washington State :
McCain 36% .. Clinton 41%
McCain 38% .. Obama 44%
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/140089.asp
Re Henley, I perked up a bit when I read that “a leading Oxfordshire Tory” had been chosen as candidate. I thought it must be Clarkson. But alas not.
Shame. I still dream of Jeremy becoming PM - soon - and sorting this country out…
250. Reading that just reminds me how stupid the mayoral system is within the current local government structure.
257 - Has this candidate got much going for him? Is a local worthy really the sort of man to succeed 30+ years of Heseltine and Boris?
254. It’s pretty bad that, a labour stronghold like Doncaster having such a split in the Labour party.
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/Doncaster-in-turmoil-What-the.1913300.jp
As usual the Labour British Broadcasting corporation don’t give you the full SP!
252
Alex, I have never been asked a polling question by any pollster in the last 36 yrs. Is it because I live in the deep South?
250. Labour rules prevent a member standing for a third term as elected Mayor? Really?
257. Jeremy Clarkson would make a crap MP nevermind PM!Cannot stand the bloke! His hair is a mess and he is an arrogant oaf! No jokes about continuity with previous MP’s for Henley!
259. Maybe they need someone ordinary! The LD’s can hardly campaign on their candidate being a *star*! I should imagine a rotting can of cat meat has more charisma than the LD candidate in Henley in this By-election!
Certainly a rotting can of cat meat would have more impact on the residents lives as the LD is a carpetbagger!
The LD’s should have chosen John Cleese over the non-entity they have chosen. Think Cleese would have more in common with the area by vague association of his university days?
262 - I asked this the other day ie. whether it applies to London Mayoral candidates.
260 - That’s an old report I think. Here’s something more up - to - date:
http://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/free/Huge-row-erupts-one-week.4128869.jp
261 - clear evidence that polling companies are understating the scale of the Tory lead!
252, Alex,
I’ve been phoned by ICM once for a poll.
Sadly, it wasn’t for politics (something to do with cars, IIRC).
264 - “Think Cleese would have more in common with the area by vague association of his university days?” but Cambridge is not exactly near Henley.
(And some would say that Cambridge is not exactly a university.)
OK 251 & 252. Try calling 08453373183.
270 - I’d rather not.
269. Cambridge is still closer than where the candidate lives though!
It was the cambridge lights was it? I got confused!
Whether you go to Oxford or Cambridge you usually have a career encrusted with Gold. Even the Labour politicians have a gilded path, that’s why this class thing really hacks me off and it seems to be the Labour politicians who have benifited the most who make the biggest noise about it. What they fail to realise is the damage they cause to people who are percieved to have had privilige but in realighty have none at all - the catogry i slip into!
248 - damn right. This isn’t palpable error, it’s blatant welching. Good luck.
266. Does make one wonder: in 2010 will some of the Labour heartlands fall to local candidates similar to Blaenau Gwent Peoples’ Voice?
Let’s face it - places like the Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire and the Welsh Valleys held onto the New Labour concept because it was winning them elections and throwing them the odd bone in terms of policy (helping the poor, greater spending on public services etc).
But, I’d contend that now Labour are in such a dire state the whole coalition is falling apart. The old, unreconstructed Socialist constituencies could start to wonder what the point of sticking with New Labour is, if they’re going to lose power. Why not stand as an independent and push forward genuine, old-Labour principles?
I could see it happening in a handful of constituencies in 2010 if Labour don’t get their act together. Depending on how well they perform in opposition it could happen after the election, as well.
Indeed, there may even be an opening for a new party, provided it was publicised well in the right places….
272 - “Whether you go to Oxford or Cambridge you usually have a career encrusted with Gold”
Rather a stereotype I am afraid. There are plenty of Oxbridge graduates who are teachers, or work for charities, and work in local government at not so high levels. You seem to be caught up in the class politics of the 1980s - you are so very old Labour, Martin!
230 - “I never realised what a ghastly person Cecil Parkinson came across as!”
I have actually met Cecil in the flesh. He’s a really nice down to earth kind of guy. Came as a bit of a shock to me.
275 - perhaps Cecil is just very good at pressing the flesh.
251/261- Do you think that the Conservatives would really manage to clean out the BBC stables upon their return to power? Government-owned broadcasting companies in the west not only seem to have a decided left-wing bent, but also seem to be surprisingly immune to efforts by conservative governments to reform them. In the U.S., one of the conservatives’ biggest pet peeves has long been the left-wing activism of PBS (the Public Broadcasting System), both on television and radio. While its television presence is of fairly limited importance, it has a major radio presence. Even when the Republicans controlled the White House, House and Senate, they never managed to dent the PBS armor, even to the extent of limiting its funding. I also listen to France Culture, part of Radio France, and its unrestrained elogies to socialism, Marxism, etc. seem to be undiminished in the aftermath of the Sarkozy victory last year (clearly a more conservative leader than Chirac).
89.”A Winchester by-election would potentially be a majo indicator not only for the south-west of England where the majority of LibDem-Tory marginals are located but also Scotland.”
Fantastic analysis Easterross!
I have been trying to make that point on here and on ConHom for a long time, a constituency like the one I live in has more in common with some of those Libdem/Tory seats down South than others in Scotland. We are not the one great big alien Socia1ist country that some members of the Conservative party and Scottish journalistic raj in London would seek to portray us.
I think that MP’s like Charles Kennedy and Malcolm Bruce have a large personal following built up over many years, unlike some of the newer Libdems MP’s who could see majorities notched up on the back of the Blair years disappear. I think the Libdems peaked in 2005 in Scotland, and we are witnessing a rapid decline in the face of resurgent SNP and Conservative parties.
This could be all the speedier in the North East because of the extreme difficulties faced by the Libdems at council level, and the controversy over the Aberdeen bypass which has implications for their leader Nicol Stephen as it goes right through his constituency. Its the perfect political storm dreaded by any party, and could see them decline even more rapidly here than in other area’s.
If you take both the Holyrood and the Westminster constituencies of Gordon, Aberdeen South and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, the SNP and the Conservatives have kept strong rural pockets of support throughout the lean years, the Libdems have benefited from many of the aspirational middle income families living in the Aberdeen suburbs and out lying area’s such as Westhills, Kingswells and Inverurie to name a few.
The previous boundary changes showed the Libdem support following those area’s. But that vote has always been soft and gone to the Libdems by default, simple because there was no alternative. The SNP did not even have to campaign very hard in those area’s last year thinking that it was not their natural territory, and still the votes switched to them in a significant numbers because they were deemed to be the vehicle to remove an unpopular Labour party from control in Holyrood rather than the Libdems.
But four party politics means that there are more choices for that protest/tactical vote, and that is going to mean some surprise wins, losses and holds come election night.
274 - Didn’t independent socialist candidates do very well in the Welsh Valleys at the locals? I have no knowledge of the local political climate but it seems possible that some powerful independent challenges could emerge in some of those seats – even before Laws won Blaenau Gwent there was a tradition of such candidates doing well, so it would seem possible that there might be one of two more such MPs being elected in 2010 (out of interest was Davis standing again?).
I think there is a by-election in a very studenty ward (Holywell) in Oxford in a couple of weeks. LD has got a job overseas so had stood down.
279 - I think it almost certain that Dai Davies will be the MP for Blaunau Gwent after the next election.
Surprised that no one has spotted this trailer from the Telegraph.
Trouble ahead for the Tories
“Another busy weekend for politics - and tomorrow The Sunday Telegraph turns the spotlight on to the Conservatives. Melissa Kite has a story which will have serious ramifications for the Tories as they plot a path to power. Full details on this website later.”
282.That should have been the Telegraph Three Line Whip Blog.
Martin Day, do you have to splatter this site with so many of your inane ranting posts? Cant you try to limit yourself to just 3-4 per thread? Please?
“he has Clegg over a barrel.”
who has the rights to the video?
275.
“I have actually met Cecil in the flesh. He’s a really nice down to earth kind of guy.”
What you mean is he ‘comers over’ as such. Some people are easily taken in. Sarah Keays will tell you how nice a guy he really is.
282. “Serious ramifications”
Sounds catastrophic…..
*** UPDATE ON THE RBC MEETING IN WASHINGTON DC ***
Florida demanding full recognition of Superdelegates, and split on whether to accept 50% seating of pledged delegates, or whether (as US Sen Bill Nelson is insisting) the delegations should be seated in full.
Howard Dean is in attendance, and seems to be set adamantly against seating the delegates.
The initial Florida challenge (which said it would accept 50% pledged 100% superdelegate seating) was very friendly and legalistic.
Now there is a much more ebulliant challenge from Bill Nelson, who is going head-to-head with (nominally undeclared) RBC member David McDonald of Washington State. Cracks starting to show in the display of unity. Crowd are like QT on cocaine.
286: ‘Sarah Keays will tell you how nice a guy he really is.’
They had an affair. She fathered his child. She sold the story to The Mirror. Why is Parkinson the bad guy?
282/7 I saw it but it seems pointless to speculate if you dont even know what the subject matter is …
286 - well, perhaps he has mellowed in his old age. Back in 1983 I found him ghastly. I met him via work about 3 years ago, and he was very personable. And unlike Sara Keays, I did not bed him.
279 Caution. The BG/PV effect was heavily limited to BG and areas within its orbit. Other attempts like Forward Wales fell apart. Independents did thrive in Caerphilly but with tacit understanding from Plaid being key. If Plaid do decide a la Wyre Forest to let Ron Davies have a clear run then Labour could be beaten but these very special local circumstances. No sign of a general effect.
291 - pointless, but fun…
George Osborne ate my hamster!
289. Where are you watching it?
291.”but it seems pointless to speculate” On a political betting site, that is like asking the Pope to renounce Catholicism!
294 I suspect it wont be as much of a bombshell as the trail……
286. Ah Cecil Parkinson, ou sont les wankers d’antan?
Looking back, the scandals of the John Major/Back to Basics era, such as Cecil and Tangerine Scarfing Man and, er, that bloke in the park - they seem so trivial and innocent compared to the crimes of New Labour: Iraq, Cash for Peerages, the Big Immigration Lie, etc.
What’s a middle-aged minister with a hand up a skirt compared to illegal invasions and half a million dead?
Come back Cecil, all is forgiven. Well, kinda.
290. “She fathered his child.”
Who did what, and to whom?
I think you should give us the gory details.
*** UPDATE *** UPDATE *** UPDATE *** UPDATE *** UPDATE ***
Mark Oaten MP has responded to this post and to your comments at post 257 on this thread.
I can confirm that the post is genuine, as I have confirmed it with Mr Oaten via his official Parliamentary e-mail address.
Cheers, Morus
283: ‘…serious ramifications for the Tories…’
Funny. Two of the tags for that article are ‘Lord Goldsmith’ and ‘Frank Field’. Is that a clue?
276 He sure was with Sarah Keays
Might be on C-SPAN or something?
298 By the end of the 1992-7 parliament,it would have been easier to list govt ministers who were fauithful to their wives/partners than those who played away from home-and this is probably only a slight exaggeration
Link to C-SPAN feed:
mms://rx-wes-sea160.rbn.com/farm/pull/tx-rbn-sea001:1459/wmtencoder/cspan/cspan/wmlive/cspan1v.asf
Copy and paste into windows media player.
CNN Stream
http://edition.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream2
C span? enlighten me svp
257. Why doesn’t Mark Oaten use capitals? Is it an e.e.cummings type thing? Or are majuscules seen as hierarchical and reactionary, and therefore Tory?
257: ‘But you all hate me so much that there is little point trying to explain you will just add more hurtfull remarks.’
Well, if it is genuine then anyone who writes such illiterate, self-pitying guff isn’t fit for office.
289 - on CNN
http://edition.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream2
303. It is. Thanks a lot Yokel.
307. American specialist politics channel.
300- It is a testament to the growing importance of this humble site that it can evoke responses from MP’s who claim to never respond to web site criticism. I’m sure this power will only increase interest in, and the popularity of, PB.
TY !!!
I thought he was referring to the 3 line whip teaser…
I am hoping now that Osborne will respond to my post at 294.
Credit to Oaten for turning up here.
308 - says the other renowned writer who doesn’t capitalise his first name!
294 Come to think of it,George Osborne often does look constipated
279 Do you think the Unionist Flag is still helpful for the Scots Tories. Is any revival to do with Cameron’s image as a One Nationer as pre 1979 than a hard line Thatcherite Tory.
300.I missed that post by Mark Oaten. He should not take these comments too personally, but he has to understand that any rumours about a possible by election will be endlessly debated on here, as will the chances of the Libdems retaining the seat come the GE if he does stay on and step down then.
And, more importantly, Brown, Cameron and Clegg come in for this type of in depth focus/analysis and at times just plain verbal bashing on a daily basis here and on other political websites.
263 MTF - No, I think it’s more likely to have something to do with your name.
281. That is true SBS. Four candidates are in the field, including former Cllr Paul Sargent (who lost his Carfax seat on 3rd May) for the Tories and student Mark Mills for the Lib Dems. The ward has a student population of close to 95%; if the by-election had been held out of term-time turnout would have been about 2%!
319 - I don’t think you missed it - i assume it was held up in moderation.
319 - It was held up in Moderation as that e-mail address had not posted before. Once cleared it turned up at 257, because this website publishes posts in chronological order of being submitted not published.
It took Double Carpet and I a little while to contact Mr Oaten and get a confirmatory response.
I think it is to his credit that he has posted a response under his own name and would ask that we show pb.com’s usual level of courtesy in responding to him!
320 lol
I think Mark Oaten makes the mistake of thinking that most of the posts are about him, when the reality is that posters on here will try any speculative excuse to dream up a reason for having a by-election.
*** Congressman Wexler (FL-19)(who this week demanded that Scott McClelland be invited to testify before Congress about the revelations in his book) is now testifying before the RBC. He has endorsed Barack Obama before now, so it’ll be interesting to see what he suggests. ***
Mark Oaten’s spelling and grammar are shocking for a member of parliament
Having read post 257 my opinion for Mark Oaten has increased significantly. Best of luck with your future Mark.
316 Do you think this is the biggest clutching of Straws ever?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/31/gordonbrown.labour1
BTW I was thinking Re Clegg doubling seats in Wales. Didm’t say when and while wildly unlikely is it actually loony tunes completely. Let’s say for a bit of fun the following….. Consider they hold all 4 seats at present. I know Ceredigion should go withmost indicators and yet it is a wildly contrarian seat with incumbents holding on unexpectedly or being thrown out equally unexpectedly as in 2005, and who saw Cynog Dafis winning from 3rd in 1992? I can’t rule out Mark Williams holding and then being thrown out just when we think he’s safe at some point in the future.
So with all 4 seats held. Well we’ve all picked SW. Tough with AW retiring doable. Would take them to 5. A three way battle post AM sees them take CS. Unlikely but not impossible. Takes them to 6. A Labour struggling nationally and with Local Govt base they take Wrexham. Very unlikely but imaginable. Takes them to 7. Lastly as we discussed Newport East. A Labour Party in meltdown would I think give a 25-30% chance for them takes them to 8.
All that was for fun and I stress unlikely in the extreme, but on reflection was Clegg just being optimistically eccentric than completely bonkers Morus.
326. Wexler’s an unusually fiery speaker for a Democrat! I’m quite impressed.
257 - What a self-pitying whine from Oaten.
321 - I was reading the student mag Cherwell yesterday. It seems that Tory leaflets are criticising the LDs for calling the by-election for 8th week (the last week of term). In fact, the sitting councillor resigned 48 hours after getting the job in America. Should he have hung on and had the election during the vacation?
This ward probably has the most transient population of any in the country, as it consists mainly of 1st year and 3rd year undergraduates, but few second years. Had the election been during the vacation, the LD postal vote machine would have come into play. It is quite slick following recent General Elections in OxWAb.
This is a political betting site and rumours in the press will be discussed. There were a few posts that repeated gossip but of the 242 most were about the subject of whether Winchhester would stay LIb Dem, Mr Oaten should perhaps have provided a shorter response, explaining the position and that he was keeping the party aware.
323 Well said.
I hope it’s of some consolation to Mark Oaten that not everyone here hates him. I for one have always thought him to be one of the most impressive and human politicians. I hope that he’ll consider posting here on regular basis regardless of whether on not he stays active in politics.
dan- i am dyslexic and find it hard to write without spell check etc so sorry for that-
mark
I did spot Mr Oaten briefly at Mike’s book launch.
Still, he could look on the bright side, he could be Gordon Brown reading this blog instead.
On the RBC it looks like it’s definite that Florida will be seated with half votes, Michigan being a problem purely because only one of the candidates left themself on the ballot. There may be a valid move not to seat them on the basis of the vote but 50/50, with half votes as per Florida, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Obama people acquiesced to seating as per the vote with uncommitted votes transferred to Obama though.
I wish they’d get on with all of this, we need to get a better sense of the standing of McCain vs Obama without all of this ‘noise’.
SECOND UPDATE: The Portsmouth News is carrying a report tonight under the heading - “MP says he will go before an election”. - So this gets more confusing.
327
I thought Member and Parliament were meant to be in capitals
*** UPDATE FROM THE RBC ***
Wexler has expressed, on behalf of the Obama campaign, support for the Austin amendment, and has asked the RBC to vote to re-instate Florida’s delegation at 50% (both pledged and superdelegates).
Best possible tactic - Obama supports seating them, but kills of any chance of Hillary overtaking him. Really is gripping viewing.
339 I thought they could all be seated and Hillary still couldn’t overtake him.
335. While we’ve got you here Mark, how about Charles Kennedy to be next Lib Dem leader at 25/1? He’s still popular in the country and both Clegg and Huhne have the safest of seats. Can I tempt you to comment?
332. No, a vacation election wouldn’t have helped anyone. As I said, the electorate overwhelmingly consists of students. Also, postal votes would I think be pretty hard to organize - especially in so far as 3rd years who are leaving uni would probably regard a by-election after they’d left Oxford as none of their business.
In 2006, Labour held a by-election for Hinksey Park (a seat with a small student population which might have swung it to the Greens or Lib Dems back then, though it’s safely Labour again now) in the summer in order to make sure they held on.
327 - I think we’re sitting in a glass house on spelling and grammar on this site, Dan! Best not throw stones…
On the Three Line Whip teaser - is it the latest ICM poll I wonder or a story they have held back. Must admit that I never expected to miss Conrad Black but since reading about the current political situation in Sark and with the Telegraph having become more of a Heffer (and strangely Brown) supporting paper rather than its old Torygraph self, I see more and more of Mr Black’s good points.
341. Should have said ‘neither’ Clegg and Huhne have the safest of seats not ‘both’.
290.
“They had an affair. She fathered his child.”
Ignoring, for one minute, his other past promises, he (Cecil Parkinson) decided very publicly to have no parental contact whatsoever with the disabled child.
Sarah Keays was a very promising female parliamentary candidate before her path crossed CP.
Sh1t.
343 - speak for yourself, Morus!
345 neither Clegg nor Hulme?
Thanks for sticking your head above the parapet, Mark Oaten. Don’t take the comments on here and on other blogs and forums personally. Half the stuff thats posted on internet message boards and forums is simply nonsense.
Good luck for the future and all the best to you and your family.
340 - I had this debate with a poster called Yucca, who has a blog called the Insatiable Yucca, at the end of the thread on the RBC.
If seated in full, Hillary would be about 100 delegates behind Obama, with 240 or so superdelegates left to declare, so she would have been trying to get 70% of the remaining Superdelegates to support her based on having won the popular vote.
That would have been a big ask, but not impossible. Seating half the delegates from FL and MI means she would be about 150 behind, with only 220 remaining, which would be about 85% of the remaining Superdelegates, which I think would be impossible.
348 oops Huhne!!
The wording about the Melissa Kite article ’serious ramifications for’ suggests that it isn’t a revelation but some digging as to how much of a whole the country is in.
“Melissa Kite has a story which will have serious ramifications for the Tories as they plot a path to power. “
“For the Conservative by election machine would surely make Nick Clegg’s ambivalence to Labour the key issue of the campaign. If you want to send a message to Gordon Brown, electors would be told, then there is only one way of doing it - elect a Tory again.”
My thoughts exactly Mike and if there are no local issues of a pan-constituency interest or that affect a large part of it then it would be quite a powerful message in the current climate.
Re-electing a LibDem wouldn’t send that message as they are the incumbent and it would send a no-change message. Such a message would have less traction from the incumbent LibDems as public perception is that the only way to unsettle the Government and get them to address national concerns is to vote for the clear national alternative - the Conservatives.
And as you say their ambivalence towards the Labour party (their attacks are not as sustained and visceral as they are against the Conservatives) would leave them on the defensive as, well, the defending party.
The LibDems in Scotland (and Wales to some extent) have also provided the ammunition for the Tories to use against the LibDems as the party that will prop up Labour. They were in coalition with them for 8 years enacting mainly Labour policies and have gone into opposition with them - which has been a disaster for them in the polls.
In opposition in the Scottish Parliament their record will also be used against them as they have voted with Labour on a vast majority of occassions. Such information is going to give credence to a Conservative message that a “LibDem vote is a Labour vote”.
As is the behaviour of their MPs who seem obsessed with attacking the SNP in Westminster and missing the large elephant sitting on the Government benches opposite.
Showing how the Scottish LibDems have underpinned Labour in Scotland in government and opposition will also assist in the Conservative’s narrative about “English votes for English laws” in what would appear to be a seat that would be quite fruitful for such a message.
In tis seat it will be the Scottish LibDems wot lost it. Get your bets on the Conservatives now before the price narrows.
344 - A story by Melissa Kite. Presumably some story about splits in the Shadow Cabinet. Probably Liam Fox “threatening” to quit if he doesn’t get promises of money for Defence or something.
350. Thanks. See 329.
*** Wexler being put in a bind, asked if he would support seating in full, and he does not want to answer. Crownd getting restless, because he clearly doesn’t want to seat them in full, but can’t say so publicly ***
352 hole
Maybe some “ultimatum” on the EPP. Who knows?
344. I don’t think it will be a poll. It sounds like some sort of policy rift/problem, or maybe a scandel of some sort. My guess is, it’ll turn out to be something or nothing and not half as important as the Telegprah “teaser” would have us believe, but we’ll see….
356 - Thanks for the updates Morus, I’m just following it now and again on here -
http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/live-from-dnc-meeting.html
354. Bye, bye Liam. Remember to close the door on the way out!
359 - As revelatory as the last time we had something trailed which turned out to be along the lines of ‘Cherie Blair doesn’t like Brown’? That is to say of the ‘Pope is Catholic’ variety.
298.
“What’s a middle-aged minister with a hand up a skirt compared to illegal invasions and half a million dead?”
when it comes to Tory Middle-aged ministers they would have likely had hands up the skirt and pushed the ‘war starts here’ button at the same time. John Pricsott (if Tony B had been topped) would have had greater problems cos of Dyslexia/Dyspraxia.
329 - HaHa! Ok, not completely impossible, but any gain other than Swansea West will be a remarkable result.
If the Tories were not resurgent, and if Clegg was a better leader, I’d say maybe 2 gains, but three seems too many, even with Labour meltdown.
My key point would be that it is not the ludicracy of the attempt, but the complete idiocy of setting that as a public target. There are plenty of good targets - keeping all seats, winning SW, increasing vote share. By claiming his target was doubling seats, he puts undue pressure on the local party, who might now devote money to winning where it would be better spent holding on where they already have seats.
It was bad leadership and a silly statement that implies a compete lack of strategic thought in the LD leader’s party.
257: Why would Mark Oaten be keeping the Tory PPC in Winchester up to speed with his plans?
Is he thinking of defecating?
Sorry. Defecting.
Mind elsewhere…
Marc Ambinder’s Atlantic live blog is also pretty useful -
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/live_from_the_dnc_rules_and_by.php
257. What a dreadful, blubbing, self-pitying, whinge-fest. I find it hard to believe it’s a genuine post.
344: ‘…is it the latest ICM poll I wonder or a story they have held back…’
My guess is that they’ve been interviewing a number of activists, constituency chairmen etc. and they want the Tories to introduce considerably more right-wing policies than Cameron has so far been prepared to countenance. The thrust will be that this below-the-surface unrest will blow up and tear the Tories asunder at some point between now and the next GE.
257: Thanks to Mark for posting here. I’m sorry he is so beleagured - speaking for myself I’ve always found him a serious and reasonable MP, and I wish him well whether he carries on or not. As others have said, people here tend to get all excited at the mere twitch of a poll or hint of a by-election, but he’s got a right to think about his future plans without everyone second-guessing them.
337. Mike,
The Portsmouth News has just dropped through my letterbox. This article is located in a small column on page 7!
It’s not big news here! But, it does add to the confused situation of this matter.
Sorry, this is the latest update, they are going by pretty quickly.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/rbc_meeting_live_wire_3_clinto.php
364. But remember that the target is to be met within two elections, not one. So winning Swansea West at the next election and taking three other seats in 2014 or thereabouts is perfectly achievable.
And if it doesn’t happen, by that time Clegg will either be so much of a disappointment that he is gone, or have established sufficient authority to ride out any controversy over the failure to achieve his target. So I don’t think Clegg’s target can really be considered a misjudgement.
257 - I’ve had an e-mail from Mark Oaten and spoken to his researcher, so I am very confident that it is genuine.
372 - Jack, I thought it was for the next election. If not, I withdraw my criticism.
Hey, Mark Oaten, I feel guilty about teasing you now. At least you had the nads to come on here, majuscules or no majuscules.
Good luck wherever you go, anyhow. For what it’s worth, my advice is: go and make money. After a certain age, avarice is the most reliable and rewarding of the vices - as Byron so rightly said.
365 - Can you post that again, in two parts? I fear a fully serious debating point will be obscured by the mouseslip
It certainly is all very courteous, but i can’t believe it’s in the LibDems best interests to be keeping the Tory high-command aware of the possibility of the timing of by-elections in such a seat.
# 257 “i have kept martin tod, chris rennard, nick clegg and the tory candidate steve brine in the picture about all of this”
Hello Mark and welcome to the mad world that is blogging. If you ignore the detritus you can often get the real messages.
What caught my eye was the reference to Steve Brine. A courtesy I realise but wouldn’t admitting such a courtesy in public only add to the narrative that the LibDems can see themselves losing the seat to the Tories.
Mr. Oaten, sorry for all that has happened to you and wish you and your family well for the future.
377. No.
375 - I have this image of you having a sort of “five minutes of penitence” at a set hour every day, where you clear your conscience of every time you’ve gone over the top the previous day… only to do it all again tomorrow
345 Nick Clegg’s seat looks pretty safe to me , 8,000 majority , holding all 12 local council seats . the local Conservative association moribund , no Conservative candidate adopted or even on the near horizon .
teaser items and polls inevitably disappoint, IMO
382 - Shouldn’t that be “IME”?
Mr Oaten’s woes - unlike those he inflicted upon his family - were entirely of his own doing. I have no sympathy.
353- A resignation followed by a big LD loss in Winchester could turn out to be a blessing for the LD’s, as it would constitute a flashing neon warning light about the danger of their approach. If a loss there shocked them into retooling and aiming their guns primarily at Labour before the next general election, they may end up saving the furniture, so to speak, instead of only learning their lesson when everything is at stake in 2010. Better to learn your lesson by losing one seat than by losing 20 or 30. Just a theory, but seems compelling to me.
If I can offer partial consolation to Mr Oaten, he should remember what Oscar Wilde said: “There is only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is being not talked about.” You are significant enough to be mocked for your mistakes (which most of the rest of us on here are not). Accept that as a very backhanded compliment.
Gordon’s been calling people since 1997
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/745746/brown-has-been-phoning-round-since-1997.thtml
378. Which bits of what happened to the MP for Winchester are you most sorry about?
257 - Well, now I at least know why Mark Oaten’s chapter in the Orange Book was written by his researcher.
“SECOND UPDATE The Portsmouth News is carrying a report tonight under the heading - “MP says he will go before an election”. - Mike Smithson. So this gets more confusing.”
Is it possible that the report of the Portsmouth News is based on the earlier report of The Times? In that case Oaten’s refutation should be considered to apply to it, as well.
337,. What MP?
I think that the Liberal Democrats should be worried about any of their seats in the south. I checked the last ICM poll and it showed what I had suspected: Nick Clegg’s benefiting form the anti-Labour vote, but it’s not showing because he’s losing votes to the Tories at the same time. In fact, it’d be interesting to see how they’d be doing if it wasn’t for this Labour meltdown- little better than with Campbell, when they were staring down the barrell at 13/14%, I would imagine.
391 How have you checked for Churn.
Is this the first time we’ve had both candidates from a constituency (albeit from last time around) commenting on a PB thread?
Morus. Did you write the Oaten spoofs? They are too dreadful to be genuine.
344 I agree. The Barclays are pursuing a pretty obsessive vendetta against the Seigneur of Sark - basically a glorified neighbours’ dispute.
I’m most disappointed that Oaten managed to reach the rank of MP without learning when to use capital letters. Disappointing
I bear no malice to the guy, but the stories about him are fairly amusing/revolting, particularly the things I’ve been told by people “in the know”. Those same people also seem to think that he’s a decent guy all told. Don’t take it so personally Mark.
394 - No - Mike is adamant that impersonation is not allowed on the site, and will bar anyone who impersonates another poster or public figure. There are serious moral and legal issues about allowing impersonation, and that’s why we were so careful to confirm that these were genuine before posting them.
68 alex
Such a nasty little post. You should be ashamed of yourself. Many of the posters here enjoy a little ribbing but your sad, pathetic post needs to be treated with the contempt it deserves.
Malcolm
Just back from leafleting for the Tories in Henley. Another slick operation, based in two centres, Watlington and Thame. Was told by Watlington that they had 150 volunteers out this morning. Was impressed that with the candidate only chosen last night, overnight they had printed a leaflet giving his details, folded it and put into streets ready for delivery - for the whole constituency. All of the Thame leaflets had already been taken by midday, and just after noon there were only a few streets left to go out from Watlington. If I’d arrived any later I would have missed out! This looks like a well-oiled machine from day one.
Leafleted one of the larger villages north of Reading. No whiff of insurrection in the air. A couple of local good old boys joked about bringing back Boris! He clearly had something of a local following which might possibly reduce turnout. A couple of folk were a bit miffed that the woman candidate hadn’t been selected, but I didn’t see it influencing their vote.
Lots of folks out in their gardens, so plenty of chance to give the leaflets out in person - all very positive for the Tories in this little bit of Henley, I can report. Again, as with Crewe, struck with how fixated Britain has become with gardening. Alan Titchmarsh would be elected in a landslide if he formed the Garden Party. (Unless the LibDems choose that Ground Force lass with the jiggly norks to replace Boy Clegg. Helpful hint!)
A word to anyone going there - these folks do have bloody big driveways! Expect to deliver at about half the rate of Crewe.
398 - had to go and check. What PRECISELY was “sad and pathetic” about it?
And I’m not sure that you and your “pretty boy Dave” posts give you the right to accuse anyone of “pathetic posts”, but even then i can’t see what you’re getting at!
Makes you wonder just how many MPs, besides regular Nick Palmer and irregular Stewart Jackson, read pb.com themselves or at elast keep an occassional eye on it.
400 (con) - I can only assume that being relatively new to the site, you have no idea of the well advertised love/hate relationship (well a bit less of the love) that Mike has with LibDem leaders.
399 Has Boris applied for the Chilterns already then.
If what Mark Oaten did was actually done by a Conservative MP he would have been forced out.
Mark Oaten should count himself lucky that he has been allowed to remain.
It is noteworthy that the real bile chucked on him elsewhere is from Lib Dem bloggers who had policy differences with him.
399.
“Ground Force lass with the jiggly norks”
Good to see the toffs know the right place for the tarts. Follow the white line to the party?
Mike
This has been a particularly bad choice as a thread. It has brought out the nasty little sniggering school boys, particularly from the Conservative and Unionist Party [God only knows what they represent.]
I always find it sad when grown [?] men behave like oinkish third formers; perhaps next time you might consider the consequences of posting any thread lead that might result in the pathetic drivel that has been dropped here.
I’ll wait for a new thread and hope that the grown-ups turn up next time.
Malcolm
Con 371 Lab 205 LD 38 maj 92 on new ElectoralCalculus Prediction.
406 - Are you going to answer? On reflection i can only assume that you’ve made some sort of random connection with Paddy Ashdown’s affair, although quite how you did that I don’t know.
Even though I highly value, and appreciate in others, the gift of good grammar, one almost never comes across well in criticizing the grammar/spelling/usage of others. Instead, it is often the refuge of those who have no bombs of higher quality to throw. By the way, I’ve read personal communications from incredibly wealthy and otherwise successful people (people whose names sometimes appear in the Wall Street Journal, for example) whose grammar/spelling/usage are shockingly bad. I don’t like it, but it doesn’t seem to mean much anymore.
If people are going to accuse others of “sad and pathetic” posts then IMO they should elaborate a bit on their reasoning.
New Thread on Puerto Rico
Cheers - Morus
410.
“they should elaborate a bit on their reasoning.”
somewhere else, please?
Unless they’ve agreed to call Henley & Winchester on the same day ?
407 is there a new poll out Alex
sorry that was to Alex et al at 376
403 No. Today’s Henley effort was before there is even a by-election campaign. It will be called this week.
405 Wage slave - careful with the “white line” references my friend. Somebody less tolerant might have their lawyer’s number on speed-dial (pun intended)….and as for the idea of me being a toff? I’m one of the few people on this site who can fairly say they were brought up in abject poverty. So drop the toff line - it shows you up as being utterly clueless.
412 - Do you know what he was talking about then? Coz i haven’t got a clue.
I’ll repeat the post for elaboration:
“I wouldn’t worry too much about Mike - he even thinks he was proven right by not supporting Paddy Ashdown!”
It is interesting the the Lib Dem peer Lord Carlisle is in favour of 42 days detention and speaks out in his quasi Govt as the “reviewer” in favour of the Govt policy.
Somehow he keeps the LIBERAL democrat whip. Was there ever a more illiberal policy? If Carlisle was a minor peer in the Lib Dems then he could be said not to matter. Lord Carlisle is far from that.
When asked about this during the Leadership election Clegg said that he had discussed it with Carlisle. Discussed, then Carlisle ignores him?
Can one of our Lib Dem supporters on here explain this? Is being illiberal ok? Why is so little said about Carlisle on the Lib Dem blogs?
415 - Now i’m really confused
406 – I think that’s a bit rich… plenty of LibDem on this thread seem to have seen fit to pile on Oaten with snide or down right horrible remarks as much as anyone, it’s not at all ‘nice’ but its hardly surprising.
My own view is that Mr Oaten’s personal predilections and failings are no ones business but his own and are unlikely in anyway to impact on his ability to effectively represent the people of Winchester (unless – as seems likely – the media makes his position untenable) – what I have no sympathy for is his deceiving of his wife and family, at the same time I have no authority to position myself as some kind of moral arbiter, I think it’s fine to remark on something like this but I think very few are able to judge with any credibility.
@399:
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS: JIGGLING HERE?
“We’re fighting this election on issues, not norks”, says David Cameron, “because my moobs are going a bit saggy.”
420 - I didn’t even make any comments about Mark Oaten - and yet I’ve been singled out for a totally harmless post! If post 68 was the low point on what Mal19ken describes as one of the worst threads in pb.com history, then i’m totally mystified as to what he has taken offence to!
399 - “Leafleted one of the larger villages north of Reading.”
Presumably Sonning Common.
318.Punter, to be honest its not about the Unionist flag (remember the sea of Union Jacks in the hands of Rangers fans), but rather the Unionist cause. Most people are relaxed about the flag despite what some will tell you, it never bothers anyone when its linked with the Queen, Olympics or the military to give some examples. The Soltaire gives us a more personal/historic identity within the Union, especially at sporting occasions, just as the Rangers fans will opt for the other one to make their point!
There are still plenty of Unionists who have no truck with independence, they tend to be older and more importantly they vote, and this could be a very powerful block against Salmond’s drive to grant the SNP its dearest wish. And they did not mind lending the SNP their vote to get rid of Labour which sometimes gets forgotten when we get excited about the amount of seats the SNP will get at the next GE.
I do think that Cameron’s image as a one nation Tory will really help us try and relaunch the party North of the Border, just as his predecessor and that dog whistle campaign did not. That campaign kept the core vote happy and garnered some extra support which was mostly in the area’s they were already strong, but it pushed back any green shoots of recovery in other parts of the country for another couple of years.
Blair was popular in Scotland, not because he was Labour, but because he was New Labour and appealed to voters out with the ordinary Labour membership in their traditional heartlands.
At the end of the day, if you provide a positive message with attractive policies and strong leadership you will do reasonable well. Gordon Brown provides non of these traits which is why his opinion poll ratings are tanking in Scotland. He has buried his Scottish connections for years, and its ironic that some get annoyed about it down South when it gives no discernible advantage up here.
416.
“I’m one of the few people on this site who can fairly say they were brought up in abject poverty”
of humour? Or respect for women? Something must have drawn you to the party of preference for jiggly norks.
423 Close - Woodcote.
New Thread
Cheers - Morus
425 Are you terminally stupid, or do you just wear it at weekends?
I was pleased to see Mark Oaten post to the list and I hope he continues to do so, even with bad spelling. Mine by the way frequently misses letters so apologies to the perfectionists.
I may be a Tory but do despair when the media rake into the private lives of MPs. Unless it directly impacts on their jobs, they should be entitled to the same privacy the rest of us expect.
I well remember at Blackpool conferences the word going out that the hounds from the News of the Screws were on the lookout for muck and that was when they officially supported us! Thank goodness that most people take a grown up attitude nowadays to the private activities of MPs. No-one ever seems to think of an MPs school age children or elderly parents when printing so called scandal and frankly the private lives of many of the journalists I have met make the sex lives of MPs look like that of Mary Whitehouse!
Back to politics, it does seem that there is a rising expectation that something “exciting” is going to happen. Could we get a defection or two?
Mark Oaten if you read this, please give serious consideration to joining our “happy band”. I dont agree with much of what Nick Palmer believes in but I enjoy his contributions and obviously I wish Stewart Jackson would post more frequently. It would also be good if we could someone like Angus MacNeill (he of the cash for peerages claim)and a Welsh nationalist could also be prevailed upon to post. The wider the range of views available to us all from parliamentarians, the more focused our discussions can be.
421.
(:-)
Just keep your histogram horizontal.
Mark Oaten,
Thanks for commenting. I do feel that you may have (understandably) read too much into comments from (most) posters which have been pretty well focussed on the possibility of a by-election in your seat and the prospects of the parties if such were to occur. (There’s also been quite a few of the pbc-patented off-topic discussions (for example, Venezeulan oil)). There have been some comments which you in particular would find hurtful; my only advice is much as that of other posters above: try to ignore such comments.
I have been struck by the thought that you might feel that you’re being criticised for potentially “abandoning your post”. The prospect of a brand new start with a new career in a new country must be recognised by all of us as incredibly attractive to you. Bearing in mind that we can have no real idea of your personal and family situation (I could easily see a scenario where your family could want the prospect of moving on away from the painful near-past, or the effects of long-term stress upon your health might well dictate an early resolution of the situation, to give just two possibilities. I hasten to add that I’m not contending either of them - there are an infinity of excellent reasons for you to want to secure a fresh career), we couldn’t criticise you for taking such an opportunity. Your family, health, security, peace-of-mind and so on simply have to be your top priorities.
On the topic of the thread, I do find myself wondering if Winchester could be more than averagely vulnerable to the decontamination of the Conservative brand - bearing in mind the rather unique situation that resulted in Mark Oaten’s 20,000+ majority (The electorate perceiving an incident of electoral “poor sportsmanship” by the party seen as the “Nasty Party”). With Mr Oaten’s personal vote not available to his successor and the decontamination of the “Nasty Party”, I’d actually expect a larger than average swing to the Tories if such a by-election were to occur. Although I’ve got no idea if it would be large enough for a Conservative gain.
And what on Earth is Malcolm having a go at Alex for???
Can i take it you are not going to respond and explain your previous post, Malc19ken?
Mark Oaten - Sorry if you think my post including the ‘usual jokes’ hurtful. I think actually you need to get some professional councelling if you think everybody hates you. Far from it - People like me may redicule people like you but that is all it is jokes! I give Nick Palmer MP a load of grief and highlight uncomfortable issues but i don’t hate him - far from it! Only a handful of posts refered to you by different posters and i would say I mentioned Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock more than i did you!
My spelling and punctution is the worst on the site, people joke about that and say my contributions are not worth my time even in posting. They joke, water off a ducks back! I don’t hate you and what ever you did, did not do that’s your history and it is in the past. You need to jeterson the bagage - probably leaving parliament at the next GE will help you take a great leap forward.
Why do all the Tory posters keep claiming that the “Tory brand” has been decontaminated?
It seems to me that it was just given a quick squirt of deodorant (eg environmentalism), and that has long since faded.
The Tory brand hasn’t been decontaminated. It just smells a little less worse than the Labour brand right now.
434. & 435 - Brands are all relative to each other. The Labour party and Liberal Democrats have greatly deminished in there intergraty compared to a resurgence in the Conservative brand.
The proof lies in the fact that the Tories are nearly 2:1 ahead of Labour on the economy and other such issues in opinion poll surveys.
Easterross @ 429:
“I may be a Tory but do despair when the media rake into the private lives of MPs. Unless it directly impacts on their jobs, they should be entitled to the same privacy the rest of us expect.”
Whilst I may sympathise with your desire to be totally PC and non-judgmental (actually I don’t) I don’t think you can so easily divorce personal conduct from professional integrity.
Mark Oaten may nor may not be a nice chap and an “excellent” constituency MP.
However, when someone repeatedly lies to and deceives those they claim are nearest and dearest to them, about matters of trust, fidelity and integrity, then I feel perfectly justified in calling into question their professional integrity and honesty.
We can be trendy and PC and pretend to ignore the ramifications of personal conduct (as if it were some neo-liberal badge of honour that they are “just like us”), or we can make a stand and we can maintain that standards of personal conduct, integrity and, dare I say it, “honour” do have linkages to what we can expect of our representatives in their public conduct.
I wish Mark Oaten and his family no ill whatsoever, and had he been up front with his wife and children (and electorate) about his predilection for gay sex with rent boys (or straight extramarital sex), then I would have had no issue with him.
However his ability to routinely deceive his loved ones calls into question his ability to maintain professional honesty.
Does this sound old-fashioned? I hope not - I think we have skirted around the issue of “trust” in politics for long enough without actually fronting up to the difficult issues it involves.