Browsed by
Month: June 2008

Is Sarah the only one who can tell him?

Is Sarah the only one who can tell him?

Q4 2008 now becomes the favourite date? The Sun’s Trevor Kavanagh runs through all the options on who will be able to tell Gordon and ends up by quoting a friend – “It has to be Sarah,” said a friend. “Nobody in this Cabinet has the balls to do it.” The general consensus, though, is that is has to be soon. In the departure date betting Oct–Dec 2008 has now become the 1.7/1 favourite. Second favourite is July – September…

Read More Read More

Can it really go on like this for two years?

Can it really go on like this for two years?

What is going to bring Brown’s position to a head? Yet again it is Gordon Brown’s future that continues to dominate UK politics. In her Monday Guardian column the former Brown enthusiast, Jackie Ashley, makes a powerful call on leading ministers and others within the Labour party to take some action to “end the drift”. Either they should come out and support the Prime Minister or they must act to get rid of him and this, she argues, has to…

Read More Read More

When did you become a Brown doubter?

When did you become a Brown doubter?

Is it just recently or have you thought so all along? It’s becoming very difficult to find anybody any more who still says positive things about Gordon Brown’s electability. One after another in recent months former great supporters of the ex-Chancellor have come to the same conclusion about the man they cheered into Downing Street at the end of June last year. But when did you start to realise that he did not have it? When did you conclude that…

Read More Read More

Do parties have to be more honest with activists?

Do parties have to be more honest with activists?

How much goodwill is squandered when you over-egg the pudding? A week before the Henley by election I reproduced the above mass email sent to Lub Dem activists because I believed it was behind sharp moves in the betting prices and that all that text highlighted in red suggested that the party had some game-changing information that was about to be revealed. Well what came out the following day did not match the billing and I think that this raises…

Read More Read More

Obama’s campaign chief outlines his strategy

Obama’s campaign chief outlines his strategy

I found this video by David Plouffe impressive – upbeat yet realisitic about the challenges ahead. It’s also a good guide for those who are betting either way on this race. Latest “Next President” betting. Latest “Winning Party” betting. Mike Smithson

Is this the most crucial picture of the campaign?

Is this the most crucial picture of the campaign?

Will disaffected Hillary supporters now back Barack? By far the biggest question mark that’s been hanging over the Democratic party’s chances in November’s election has been the extent to which fiercely loyal Hillary supporters will switch their support to the presumed nominee. Poll and after poll has shown that a significant proportion of Clinton backers, particularly women in the older age groups, have found it difficult to accept the outcome and have said they would give their votes to John…

Read More Read More

ComRes report record Tory lead

ComRes report record Tory lead

The Brown anniversary surveys come thick and fast After a by-election and two new national opinion polls to digest there’s another new survey tonight – by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent. This was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday so is the most up-to-date of the polls. The shares are with changes on the last ComRes poll a fortnight ago are: CON 46% (+2): LAB 25% (-1): LD 18% (+1). Both the Tory share, 46%, and the 21% margin over Labour…

Read More Read More