Is this the template for the future?
June 5th, 2008
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Are short primary seasons a thing of the past?
From the Iowa Caucuses on 3rd January to the South Dakota and Montana primaries on June 3rd, the five months of official campaigning in the Democratic primaries constituted the final act of choosing a nominee for President of the United States. Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton had announced their candidacies a year or so before Iowa, and their exploratory committees had been laying the groundwork as far back as Autumn 2006. The truncated time period of the actual season did not stop these from being the longest-running primary campaigns in history, raising and spending around $350m in the process.
Contrary to popular wisdom that failing to have a consensual nominee until June would make life harder for the Democrats, it seems that this elongated process has been monumentally invigorating for the party. Millions of new voters have registered, and millions more have donated to political campaigns for the first time. The extraordinary coverage granted to the Obama-Clinton contest has kept the Republican presumptive nominee John McCain largely out of the spotlight, and the ‘50-state strategy’ implemented by Howard Dean (Chair of the DNC) has helped to grow a grassroots organisation in states like Idaho and Alabama where Democrats have been an endangered species for decades.
The involvement of netroots in driving campaigns and honing the narratives of the candidates has been mimicked by the growing importance of the blogosphere and YouTube in the media coverage - how different would this campaign have been without the likes of the Drudge Report, DailyKos, DemConWatch or RealClearPolitics, or the footage of Rev Wright or ‘Snipergate’? The tool that Ted Stevens, the Republican US Senator from Alaska, once called ‘a series of tubes’, is now the indispensable means of organising a national political campaign in the US. The truly-forensic analysis and most insightful coverage has also been led by the web-based commentators (including traditional media outlets on the web), as has the fundraising on the more partisan sites.
This has not only been a Democratic Party phenomenon - the Republicans have also made use of the new technology, though to a lesser degree. The only candidate to match Barack Obama in terms of internet-led campaigning has been Ron Paul, who smashed online fundraising records with his ‘Boston Tea Party’, and whose supporters successfully astroturfed every political blog and web-page for the first few weeks of the GOP campaign season.
However, the most important aspect of the 2008 Democratic primary season has been that it involved active contests in each of the 50 states and 6 territories (DC, Guam, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Democrats Abroad). 2004 saw Kerry confirmed on Super Tuesday, though the contest was substantially decided after New Hampshire. Bill Bradley never seriously challenged Al Gore in 2000, certainly not after Super Tuesday. Bill Clinton in 1992 won by sweeping the contests immediately after New Hampshire, meaning we have to go back to 1988 to find a campaign that was still competitive after Super Tuesday, though not to the same extent as 2008. The Republicans have a similar history - very rarely (at least in the last 20 years) have primary seasons had more than one viable candidate after the first week in March.
The irresistable questions are whether external factors (other than the candidates) have forced the elongation of the primary process, and whether, next time a party is choosing a Presidential nominee (excluding where a sitting President is competing), we will see a return to the ‘over by March’ contests, or whether the 2008 model will become the norm.
Certainly the sums of money now available to candidates have allowed them to challenge in each of the 56 primaries and caucuses. The 2008 election is expected to be the first to cost over $1 billion, four times the cost eight years ago, though still less than one US cent from each American citizen every day for election year, or approximately what Americans spend on chewing gum per annum. The media also clearly plays a significant part - recognising that politics can be great TV and can sell papers should have come as no surprise, but the media seemed less swift to crown a victor this year, perhaps recognising that a perpetual campaign with advertising budgets in the hundreds of millions of dollars was the perfect fillip for traditional media whose ad departments are struggling to compete with the targeted services of new media giants like Google.
If the media were eager to assist the underdogs to run as long as possible, and candidates were happy to spent their new-found wealth on ever more desperate strategies, the real motivation for the longevity of this contest came from the voters, particularly from the Democratic Party.
They signed up in record numbers to vote in primaries, even when those primaries would not elect eligible delegates (as in Michigan and Florida). They donated more generously than ever before, not to oppose the Republican party, but to get their preferred candidate on the top of the ticket. They demanded that all states and territories got a say, even down to the least populus, the very latest, and places without a vote in November.
This overwhelming determination to be involved, to join in the process and to share in the optimism has left the Democratic Party in the strongest position it has been in for many years. It would be understandable if the Republicans would wish to emulate this contest next time they choose between non-incumbent potential nominees, and the Democrats must make sure to repeat the process if they are to live up to their name. I think the primary season has been a great boon for the Democratic Party, but even if they were foolish enough to want to return to the six-week stitch-ups of the last 20 years, I think the media and the voters will demand otherwise.
The move away from Smoke-filled Rooms and Tammany Hall was a big step for the Democratic Party - the McGovern Commission in 1971 shook up the nomination process beyond recognition. The Democratic Party has given America and the world a demonstration of quite how vibrant democratic politics can be in apparently cynical and apathetic liberal democracies. They must emulate their achievement in four or eight years time - after all, thirty-six million voters and several TV network chiefs will be furious if they don’t.
Morus
MessageSpace Advertising
1st!!!
Won’t the democrats want a shorter season, with most places involved in a competitive contest? Thus a bigger super tuesday? They might want to ring forward the traditional swing states in particular (especially if Obama does badly).
If Sean Fear is around, you didnt pick up any more on the hilarity around Stormont in the last 48 hours at all?
126,117 [On previous thread] URW - I am neither mindless nor a Tory.
Good article Morus. I’ve liked your America coverage.
5 Yes, good to have a less partisan post!
4- nickc- as someone who quite likes your very sensible and well constructed posts I thought URW’s attack slightly bizarre.
Maybe URW has nipped to the pub after work and downed a couple of pints of stella. Has happened on the odd occasion to the best of us here!
URW has lost the plot in recent days.
Morus, I think that this year’s prolonged primary season wasn’t created by anyone, least of all the media, but is rather a product of events beyond anyone’s control. The media may have benefited from a prolonged fight, but I think they did so in spite of themselves. You correctly point out the the Democrats may indeed have benefited from their prolonged primary in various ways (although whether it’s been a net plus is debatable), but the media left-wingers seemed tied up in knots about it, begging underdog Hillary to get out as soon as possible to clear the way for the Obama Express and, above all, end the damaging criticism of Obama coming from the Democrats’ own camp. Most of the players who have affected their year’s Democratic contest, from the media to the bloggers to the candidates to the financial contributor have very much wanted one candidate or the other to win, and as soon as possible. It just so happens that the two sides were nearly equal in strength and nearly fought to a draw. This is no more or less likely to recur than it was in the past, unless the Democrats decide to change their selection process (perhaps with winner-take-all states like the Republicans have).
9- sorry, “this year’s…”
9. I think you have a partisan view of the media. They were very willing to spin “Clinton comebacks” when they were nothing of the sort. The MSM’s main bias is for sensationalism and an interesting narrative. Any liberal bias is minimal, certainly compared to the conservative bias on FOX news and talk radio.
Morus- I know that people here will think I am a bit rude, but your leaders are too long (and Paul’s as well).
Your knowledge of US politics is phenomenal but maybe a bit more Pushkin and less Tolstoy would ensure that people who flick onto this site read through your excellent (and hopefully in the future briefer) articles.
11- And don’t leave out the poisoned pen of Ann Coulter…
12. Its hard core articling Tyson, designed for only the committed, the strongest….
Poll: McCain v. Obama
John McCain:49 percent to 38 percent edge over Obama among all women
3. No, I’ve not been following it.
11- But seriously, the only ones who seemed to be enjoying the “Clinton comebacks” were the Republicans and the few conservative media outlets who wanted to see the Democrats continue to beat the stuffing out of each other. The left-wing media was visibly crestfallen whenever Hillary managed to pull another rabbit out of the hat to allow her to continue her campaign.
17. Firstly, I don’t think “left-wing” is a very good description, as most of the media are educated folks who oppose protectionism etc - “liberal” is the better term. But the crestfallen stuff was rubbish. They kept on spinning stuff as Clinton “right back in this” when Obama wrapped it up in the thirteen in a row (or whatever it was) after Super Tuesday. The media enjoyed the continuous fight, and were willing it on.
13. PS. Ann Coulter is actually insane. I don’t know how anyone takes her seriously. I don’t think she has any real effect.
17 — Colbert’s character was almost crying, tuesday night, at the end of the “Democralypse Now”
12 Disagree - this is an evening comment piece so needs more substance.
11 Not sure it was media desire for narrative/sensationalism that kept the Clinton comeback going. The Clinton’s had the media contacts and expertise with MSM (not bloggers) to manage expectations. Obama’s team were less well in with the media pro’s to start with and Obamamania IMHO drove away the traditional media commentators. making them much more receptive to traditional Hillary politics.
18 “The media enjoyed the continuous fight, and were willing it on”
Of course they were, not because of political bias, but because they are producing a giant virtual circus; since january, the 2 main gladiators, or political athlete if you will, were Clinton and Obama, and to a lesser extent, Romney and McCain (assisted by Huckabee).
As long as the fight is going on, they were having big enthousiastic crowds…
“Ann Coulter is actually insane”
I think that is correct.
22
And the fact that we can bet on the outcome of the fights only give more pregnancy to this concept of huge virtual circus…
23 — A Nietzschean would say that she is a tarentula.
23
“Vengeance will we use, and insult, against all who are not like us”–thus do the tarantula-hearts pledge themselves. ”
Nietzsche, in Thus Spoke Zarathustra: The Tarantulas : http://www.thefourprecepts.com/waynesworld/revenge.htm
Ron Paul’s and Barack Obama’s use of the web were quite different in one respect: Paul’s was almost entirely independent of the candidate himself.
21- Of course, if Hillary’s stamina was merely a media product that had no substance, Obama should have no trouble winning over her voters once the media informs its robotic automaton viewers to swing into line behind the Obama Express.
23 Reflecting on your comments regarding Polls, the Conservatives and Wales. What effect do you think this will have on your members regarding the Union. Will a good showing silence the Heffer voices calling for the Celtic parts to be written off. Just curious.
Great article, Morus.
23- Perhaps Ann Coulter and Jimmy Carter could put on daily debate spectacles in the loony bin activity room, for the amusement of the other inmates, um, guests.
29 Well, I’m pretty pro-Union, so I think Heffer’s a w**ker. But, I think a strong performance in Wales, and picking up a handful of seats in Scotland will certainly help maintain pro-Union sentiment in the party.
31 Ann Coulter and Al Sharpton.
16. Pure Duke of York stuff from Sinn Fein that Paisley would have been proud of.
No one is quite sure who has won out as its unclear what, if any, backdoor deals get done. From the outside though it looks as if, minus the mollycuddling of Tony, Sinn Fein threw the toys out of the pram and got very little return.
Could be a significant moment, much missed by observers that side of the water.
We should get some clarity in weeks to come.
33- Wow, that would be fun too!
By the way Jim Webb reportedly fancies Sam Nunn as a running mate for Obama.
28 — Both Clintons trained all their life to become professionnal political athletes –they’re full of stamina, focused only on the trophees and the glory.
I remember reading somewhere that Bill said –>the first 100 days of the Presidency were the most breathtaking and exhausting of my life.
I just woke up in my jungle villa dehydrated by the heat and booze, and found a bunch of growling monkeys on my jacuzzi, then I was buzzed by a flying cockraoch and struggled through the dark to my laptop with a hot and pounding head, opening up the emails i found that the latest Italian offer for The Geneeis Secret is 100,000. euro. This calmed me down somewhat. and then I saw anothr email saying Spain wanted it for 60k. And /brazil for £35, etc etc. All new offers.
And still its selling into other markets - America,Hollywood, etc.
now I feel oddly cheerful and energetic. Think I have dicovered the cure for jetlag. Really really nice emails to do with money.
21. Clintons campaign was kept going by something well over 40% of the Deomcratic primary votes cast….Democracy at work, no conspiracies, no media agendas.
38. Congratulations Mr T. Although maybe the Brazilians are being a little tight…
Flying cokroaches — yeah baby, those beasts are lovely
Ridge for VP, pros and contras
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/a_memo_to_the_mccain_campaign.php
13/19/23.
OK guys, sorry, this is REALLY lowering the tone, but this made me laugh!!!!
Warning - ’tis explicit
http://www.annoy.com/img/covers/ann-coulter-time_sp.jpg
A Labour MP has been cautioned for causing criminal damage to a van as he dashed to board a bus.
Rob Marris, the MP for Wolverhampton South West, caused £350 damage when he climbed over the bonnet of the parked white van.
Initially he denied the offence, but admitted his guilt to police before he was due to appear at Coventry magistrates’ court. The 53-year-old, a trained solicitor and son of a magistrate, accepted a conditional caution, which does not count as a criminal conviction.
Mr Marris has also been ordered to write a letter of apology to the van’s owner, and to pay for repairs to the vehicle’s bon
Fine article, Mr Morus, but deficient in one important respect. You forgot to mention the part play by PB in all this!
This site made the epic contest even more thrilling and gave first class coverage throughout, opening up new political vistas to a whole new audience. It outshone the regula media (in the UK anyway) and taught many of us so much about US politics.
Your excellent piece is just an example of the quality and balance that has been become the hallmark of the best political Site on the internet.
Onwards and upwards, PB!
– Brian Schweitzer for VP –
Anybody has a take on this guy?
Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/on-brian-schweitzer-as-vp.html
34 Do you think Traditional Unionist Voice will harm the DUP, or will they crash and burn?
46. The Montana man?
His name has arisen before.
44 Do you think the MP was “emotional” at the time. I recall that both Chris Pond and Mike Watson did something similar when they were “emotional.”
31 Stars and Stripes
Sad post. I had the privilege to meet President Carter 18 months ago and to hear him speak for 40 minutes. The man is kind and gentle and alhough he speaks his mind it is always done with respect for others. To mention him in the same sentence as the Coulter woman gives us all an interesting peep into how your mind must work.
Sorry, to be so negative but I found your post in very bad taste.
Malcolm
Obama, McCain and the LATINOS
Obama with a 62% to 29% advantage over McCain among Hispanics.
Socrates, you were spot on!!!
So I guess this is lowering the expectations for Richardson as VP?
39 Didn’t intend to diss the voters but both you and Stars and Stripes I think misunderstand my point. While her campaign tactics post Super Tuesday took some time to re-establish I think the Clinton relationships with media helped her from Texas/Ohio onwards - they accepted her campaign spin more than they would Obama’s in same situation. The ‘never write off a Clinton” storyline.
48 — Sure, he’s on the list of VP candidates on betfair,
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20790558&ex=1&origin=MRL
50- Former presidents deserve respect until they throw away the right to it. His shameless demonization of Israel, not to mention his shameless demonization of anyone he doesn’t like, takes him off of my list of people who are too high and mighty to poke fun at. Sorry if you are offended, but I don’t share your respect for this guy. The country made a mistake in 1976, which doesn’t obligate me to bow in reverence before the man.
45 PtP
Hear, hear. Leading the UK field in covering the US primaries; pb.com is at its best when discussing things in a calm and considered way. Its a shame when the partisans start up the yahboo stuff.
Me, guilty of that? Never…well, hardly ever. After all I’m agin the lot, so that makes what I say untainted by propoganda and party prejudice…doesn’t it?
Malcolm
54 He is, surely, a good man, if hopelessly unsuited to have been President.
52- I was being a bit sarcastic, Ted. I was just trying to convey that I don’t think the media controls everything that happens in politics. But at the same time I do believe the media has a real effect on the course of political events, particularly over the course of time as their narratives form a drumbeat that becomes instilled in the public psyche.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
–>Can Bob Barr Put Georgia and North Carolina In Play for Obama?
Source: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jun/04/barr-chiseling-mccain-voter-base/
“Polls in Georgia and North Carolina over the last two weeks show Mr. Barr winning 8 percent and 6 percent respectively of the presidential vote, and in both cases helping keep likely Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama within striking distance of Mr. McCain in those states — which, taken together, account for more electoral votes than Florida, Pennsylvania or Ohio…
[InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt] Towery said North Carolina and Georgia are exactly the places that Mr. Barr could put in play: both have high African-American populations that Mr. Obama can tap to boost his turnout numbers, and have conservative-leaning voters whose dissatisfaction with President Bush could lead them to a third-party candidate.
The Georgia poll, taken just before Mr. Barr secured the Libertarian nomination, gave Mr. McCain 45 percent support, Mr. Obama 35 percent and Mr. Barr 8 percent. In North Carolina a Public Policy Polling survey released Monday found Mr. McCain at 43 percent, Mr. Obama at 40 percent and Mr. Barr at 6 percent. The poll’s authors said Mr. Barr’s support appeared to come particularly from independents who previously had broken for Mr. McCain.”
O/T John Major has a pretty powerful attack in the Times on Governments infringements on Civil Liberties - 42 days, rendition, RIPA, ID cards, DNA register etc.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4075503.ece
54 Stars and Stripes
Couldn’t disagree more. The US makes its mistakes when it goes for hyped up candidates like Nixon, Reagan and Clinton. Why Americans like charming right-wing idiots I will never understand. The tough sherrif with a heart of gold mentality always leads to a mess.
President Carter never pretended to be anything other than a decent soul who would agonise over difficult decisions. Fewer of the world’s population are slaughtered by such leaders. Having lived through the nightmare of little George I would have thought that next to him President Carter would attain heroic status.
Malcolm
58 In practice, he’ll be lucky to poll 2-3% in terms of actual votes. Whatever some Obama supporters may hope, neither Georgia nor North Carolina will cause real problems for McCain.
54. Carter’s humanitarian work and novel peace prize I think makes him worthy of a great deal of respect or at least a lot more respect than Coulter.
44 - barry, welcome back. How did your party do in the local elections?
46 Phillippe
He is certainly a plausible outsider - worth a couple of Canadian Dollars at longish odds.
15 - “This resentment is reflected in a private nationwide poll”
There is a lack of credibility with polls which do not give full disclosure of methodology. If we started believing private polling we’d be up the creek without a paddle on here.
31 - I’m sure you understand the difference between Coulter and Carter, the former is certifiably insane and the latter is a politician.
36 - Nunn’s a non-starter, the age difference might look okay the other way around but not for veep, add to that his Lieberman-esque tilt to the right and he’d lose a lot of voters.
46 - Schweitzer seems great but I’m not sure that he adds anything, lack of name recognition and no record of appeal to the blue collar vote.
36 & 46 - Well, everyone has negatives but at least Obama has a fair number of possibles.
64 — I think so too.
Because I lay all my Clinton.VP for huge profits this week, I’m super green on the Next-VP market and Dem VP Candidate markets — so I can have a bit of free speculation; I put $26.95 on Brian Schweitzer at average odds of 70.73 to be next VP.
Go boy, boy!
Here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0i9o-ThOPM&feature=related
Charlie Rose is interviewing Gov. Brian Schweitzer.
60/62- I can’t speak to what Carter ever intended to be, as I can’t see into his heart. But I know what he is and has become, and I will leave it at that.
Carter’s work with Habitat for Humanity is good, but his rolling like a bull in a china shop through the Middle East, both demonizing Israel and legitimizing murderers is inexcusably irresponsible for someone who carries the authority he has. The former doesn’t cancel out the latter in my book, let alone outweigh it. The fact that the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded by to Carter by the Norwegian legislature does not compel me to change my view.
I’m thinking about having a punt on Charlie Crist at 8/1 for republican VP. As a very cautious better I was wondering what you all thought of his chances?
46
The Obama Money Machine can cure the ” lack of name recognition “.
“no record of appeal to the blue collar vote” ; The dude is pro-gun, wears cow-boy outfits and according to this guy, “One big advantage of adding Schweitzer to the ticket would be his ability to play the perfect VP role of constantly tweaking John McCain in the language that would reach the so called “working class white vote”.
46 Philippe
He is being talked about because he shares Obama’s distate for DC politics and politicians. Obama would be making a pretty solid choice with Schweitzer and would bring almost all of the mid-western and western states into play.
The Democrats have ignored the ‘fly-over’ states for too long and Schweitzer is a deal tougher than McCain and doesn’t pull his punches. Economic populism is very up at the moment out west and Montana’s governor would do a better chance of selling it than Edwards managed and far better than Obama. Good post.
Malcolm
67
“I can’t speak to what Carter ever intended to be, as I can’t see into his heart.”
Yeah.
Only the paranoid people like Tarentual Coulta claimed to be able to decrypt one’s deep secret intentions.
60 The President Carter who betrayed the Shah of Iran in 1978, praising him on his visit, then after the Revolution refusing him entry to the /USA? The fall of the Shah and his replacement with a theocracy has been so good for world eace hasn’t it.
The President Carter who started arming the anti-Soviet Afghans in 1979 6 months before the USSR invaded, then afterwards re-established links with Zia’s islamic Pakistan dictatorship (preferable somehow to the Shah’s dictatorship?) and funnelled huge amounts of aid to the mujadeen.
Camp David was his success, the rest of his mid-East diplomacy was a disaster.
68 G
Spend a lot of time in Florida, and between you, me and the gatepost Charlie Crist [lovely man] would scare the pants off the homophobic faction in the Republican Party. He terrifies Republicans in Florida rigid and the Democrats are quite happy with him as Governor.
Actually Charlie hasn’t done anything - which would be a step up from Dick Cheney.
Malcolm
G
He has to be on the short list. Trouble is, it’s a long short list!
47, Right now they can do some damage (one reason why Sinn Fein were threatening to collapse the executive, they thought they might gain from the Unionist Voice taking DUP seats), but how much?
Brown squares off against the Bank of England
“The intriguing power struggle between Gordon Brown and Mervyn King has just heated up a few notches. Since (finally) securing his second term as Bank of England governor, King has been emboldened and is saying – in code - ‘no more of your funny games, Brown’. I blogged earlier about his assessment of Treasury spin. He has become more frank in his economic assessments, telling it how it is. Ditto his chief economist Charles Bean, who has compared the recent plunge in the pound to Black Wednesday. Now King is pushing for Bean to become his deputy, replacing the recently-departed Rachel Lomax.”
“King isn’t a vainglorious chap. He’ll realise he has to protect the separate identity for the Bank because right now the words “Brown & Darling” are taken about as seriously in the City as “Laurel & Hardy”.” Ouch!
Irish Times Poll reports the No vote in lead on Irish Referendum (ht Poitics Home).
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0605/breaking84.htm
75. Coninued
Many point to that by-election as a sign of Trad Unionist strength but is that an indication of anything? If you look at the Assembly elections, post St Andrews, the Unionist anti agreement opposition got nowhere. The main issue was that unionists, as is their way, didnt turn out. I think it would take things to get difficult before they’d impact in a really heavy way on the DUP. At this point, Trad Unionist might get themselves 2 or 3 seats at most but who they push out is hard to say with single transferable vote. It could be DUP , it could be UUP, it could be SDLP or even SF if the Trad Unionist protest still vote other unionists down the card.
Related to that, other danger is that when Unionists get annoyed they do turn out thus possibly enhancing the overall unionist vote via transfers. Depending what the annoyance is, it could actually see unionists pick up the odd seat they lost at the post St Andrews election.
The Shinners have their own flank to worry about as well. In short they havent really delivered compared to the hype and have a little fray around the edges. Again though, the anti Agreement republicans didnt get anywhere last time but Sinn Fein are worried and need to stir things up to bolster themselves. The project has stalled and on one side some of their support is pretty comfortable with life now (and thus has the potential to get slack) and on the other side some are not too happy.
One thing for Carter
He opened to field to the greatest American politician of the XX century: Ronald Reagan!
77, Scary.
I never thought I’d see that.
72 Ted
President Carter made mistakes. Plenty. Name the US President who didn’t make mistakes. And George Washington owned slaves*.
Malcolm
* Wikipedia
For most of his life, Washington operated his plantations as a typical Virginia slave owner. In the 1760s, he dropped tobacco (which was prestigious but unprofitable) and shifted to hemp[44] and wheat growing and diversified into milling flour, weaving cloth, and distilling brandy. By the time of his death, there were 317 slaves at Mount Vernon.
79 Philippe
“He opened to field to the greatest American politician of the XX century: Ronald Reagan!”
Great politician, more than useless president!!
Malcolm
68
McCain being… McCain, it’s a very difficult call to make.
My advice?: avoid betting on McCain’s VP… for McCain’s decision cannot be foreseen, I think.
My intuition, however, is that he’ll choose a WOMEN (and not Condy)– in order to attract more disaffected feminine Hillary voters.
Cf. this poll: http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQ1OTUzMTA1NGIyNDllN2VjZWM1MGM0ZmI5YmQwMGI=
All about the Big Brother 2008!
Its the future! Can we project GE2010 from it???
69 - The CO type of vote isn’t Obama’s problem, it’s the PA, VA, OH type that he needs to win over.
Schweitzer does seem one of the more sensible names being bandied around though.
According to Benedict Brogan we have the possibility of another by election?!? And judging by the tone of this post, Benedict is not convinced that Gordon Brown is safe for now!
Those hurdles ahead
“Then there’s the by-election. No, not Henley. It’s the by-election that hasn’t been called and that people erfuse to talk about in public because the Labour MP concerned is alive but unwell. I can tell you that two opposition parties have already held planning meetings at senior levels, and one - the SNP - is effectively campaigning, boosted by the knowledge that it captured the parallel Holyrood seat last year. If this sounds shocking, remember that the manoeuvring to replace John Smith began before it was confirmed that he’d died, and Labour called the Crewe by-election before Gwynneth Dunwoody was buried. Politicians are an unsentimental lot, which is why they are keeping a close eye on a seat in Fife, none more so than Mr Brown. The next hurdle could be in his own backyard.”
Paddy Power didnt take long..No vote 8/13….
I do not buy though that a yes is, as the article suggests some kind of unprecedented swing. Not with 20 odd % of dont knows.
My own mistake in looking at other polls was my belief that the nos were generally more motivated and had less growth potential in the don’t know numbers. What I see though is that the yes vote may be much much more slack than anyone thought. If enough of the now don’t knows turn out then I still think a Yes could carry the day. If it doesnt, then a No is a very rock solid proposition as those people are motivated..and maybe getting more so.
59 re Major and civil liberties. Does he mention the raids on safety deposit boxes which look not unlike a fishing expedition?
And where are the LibDems in all this?
78 I don’t think you can read too much into any one council by-election. Do you know how many councillors they have?
WRT Sinn Fein, it’s hard to see where they go from here. They’ve probably got as many votes as they can get in Northern Ireland, and, South of the Border, they’re a medium sized left wing party competing with lots of other left wing parties, in a right wing country.
83> I don’t know, I’ve done ok betting and laying about 5 of the prospects at various stages.
81 An able businessman, then, as well as an able President.
77 — Thank you for that.
POLL: REFERENDUM IN IRELAND
NO : 35% (+17)
YES: 30 (-5)
UNDECIDED: 28% (-12)
WON’T VOTE: 7%
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0605/breaking84.htm
So the undecided tend to break toward the NO, and “the Yes side has lost some support to the No camp.”
“While the final outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters, the clear momentum is now with the No campaign, and it will take a dramatic shift in public attitudes over the next few days for the Yes side to win.”
Betfair market is here: http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20957763&ex=1&origin=MRL
92 — Note: the vote is the 12 of June.
77. Ted. Wow! Glad I didn’t take the odds on for the Yes vote. Thanks for cautioning me PBers.
Paddy Power 8/13 No, 6/5 Yes.
Is a No bet now the value?
89. Er..none? Certainly none elected though maybe they have the odd ex DUP councillor as well as Jim Allister being MEP. Don’t think so though.
As I said, I think it has to get worse somehow for them to geta lot of traction but they could in some areas get enough traction to get a seat or two in the assembly with a few prominent candidates. Allister being a case in point. He could get seat somewhere.
The great unknown is why unionist turnout in the post St Andrews elections didnt really excite. Werre they disninterested or was it a bit of protest? If it was protest and they are still not happy then TUV have a prospect.
94
The odds on betfair are better that PP’s, for 1.7 is available — but it is almost all gone now.
91 Scaredy Pants
Your posts get nastier, no sadder, by the month. You seem to think you are a loadsamoney kind of wit. You aren’t.
Remind me to ignore you.
Malcolm
96. Philippe. Yes it’s all gone. I haven’t had a bet on this one and now probably won’t.
96. £27 left of it. What’s happened to cause such a swing in opinion?
72- Just more sad chapters in the tragic story…
90 — I understand, and I’m glad for you! But then you’re not really betting on McCain’s decsion; you’re actually trading for a profit on the short term, buying cheap, selling expensive.
I did it also with Romney, backed him, and laid him.
94. The yes price was always a bit too mean for me to bet on but the sheer swing this poll reports (+17 for the nos) does surprise me and has me scratching my head.
At this stage I admit the 8/13 is interesting but I genuinely cant say if the polls and thus the following on betting market will both tighten
If this poll is accurate I am of the view that those don’t knows must hold a yes tilt and if they get to the polls will not vote no.
The problem is getting them there.
I find the Fine Gael voters numbers interesting. There was a fear when Ahern was in position that it could swing votes against the treaty simply because people were protesting but it coudl be that there is an anti Fianna Fail vite there anyway. Labour doesnt surprise so much. Both groupsd of voters are going against their own leaderships. Fianna Fail voters though arent exactly with it either, not as much as you’d expect.
The farmers association announcement came after this poll and the country cousins have been in the vanguard of the sceptics. I really don’t know whether that will help push the yes vote up much.
89. Well they could always return to their core activity of shooting and bombing. It seems to have worked well enough in the past.
72
”
The President Carter who started arming the anti-Soviet Afghans in 1979 6 months before the USSR invaded, then afterwards re-established links with Zia’s islamic Pakistan dictatorship (preferable somehow to the Shah’s dictatorship?) and funnelled huge amounts of aid to the mujadeen.”
This was a good decision at the time: to unite with jihadist against a common enemy.
The tragedy was that we let them down after the dissolution of the USSR.
And Ronald Reagan communication team spinned this support of the US to the ‘holy warriors’ as “we are the super-power caring about the Muslims; you see, those godless commnies just attacked a muslim land; and we care enough to help you protect both you land and your people”
good strategy; bad continuity.
Charlie’s War, anyone? http://video.google.com/videosearch?client=safari&rls=fr&q=Charlie’s%20War&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&um=1&sa=N&tab=wv#
102
” I am of the view that those don’t knows must hold a yes tilt ”
Very interesting. Why?
98 The 28% undecided is the big risk- my feeling is that undecided means not convinced by the Yes campaign more than unconvinced by the No so I’d lean towards the No side. The Irish have voted No before and nothing disastrous resulted so tendency to believe their leaders and go for near automatic support of EU proposals has diminished.
Would certainly make Europe an issue again wouldn’t it.
The last paragraph might interest PB’ers
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/06/those-hurdles-a.html
ben brogan’s by election is in glenrothes (the only labour mp in fife except gordon brown) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_William_MacDougall
104 Problem was that both Carter and Reagan funnelled aid through a pro-Islamist Pakistani regime strengthening the ISI. Pakistan was only conduit as result of the loss of Iran.
107.MTF see post @ 86. I did wonder about highlighting the last paragraph, still not sure I should have done. I am surprised that Brogan mentioned it in his article to be honest.
103. Yeah it helped them bring Tony round alot….
105. Pure instinct….more logically I think the yes leaners simply have more slack voters in them thus can readily slip into the don’t knows.
I should point out that I did get this wrong on pb.com when I mentioned it two weeks or so ago because I thought the don’t knows had a majority yes tilt. Having said that the nos are now starting to come out big style from those don’t knows just a week or two back, which can be seen as
a) the don’t knows consisted of more nos compared to yes leaners than I thought
b) now that the nos are getting the gain from previous don’t knows it leaves that pool with more yes leaners.
If the poll is accurate it will take a really decent sized majority to tilt yes though. Thing is, right now I can’t quite bring myself to believe that the No margin would be that wide in the end up. I’d need to see another poll showing a similar no lead.
I’m just wonder, off the cuff, if the Irish economy, which is showing signs of distress isnt helping the yes cause right now.
110 Sorry didn’t see you post. I avoided referring specifically to the MP as you can see, but its out there however unseemly it may seem.
109. No one is psychic though Ted. In the 80s there was one big enemy, the Soviet Union and despite some smart arses coming out and saying they warned the US government they were mysteriously quiet at the time.
112.Agreed, although I regretted posting the possibility at all as soon as I did it.
FYI, it looks like there will be 1 or maybe 2 weekend polls published in the Lisbon Treaty referendum.
114. Do we know the MP in question?
113 Agreed - in alternative universe the Shah staying on might have meant USSR didn’t invade Afghanistan as fear of islamic influence on their southern stans wouldn’t have arisen. So USSR didn’t have big military loss, resulting social and economic stress didn’t happen, USSR still round today.
In balance is the cost of Afghnistan/Iraq worth more or less than the benefits to Russia, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Georgia etc of losing the yoke of the USSR?
see 108
111
Usually, when an economy is perceived as being in or on verge of recession the popular reflexe is protectionism and anger at the government — so I guess that since the government is actually pro-yes, the bad shape of the economy might help the No-camp.
Miliband making an arse of himself on QT
On QT now. Miliband was just asked whether he was the man to save the Labour Party. Waffled a lot but offered no words of praise or real support for Brown.
Audience very negative towards both Brown and Labour.
If, and it is a big if, the Irish reject the Lisbon Treaty then this will be a huge political story running throughout the summer and beyond.
Ireland - Lisbon Treaty Passed?
I cannot believe this!
On betfair:
1.11 $1,062
1.12 $784
1.13 $745
1.14 $2,048
1.15 $1,748
Those were matched on the Yes option. Very very small odds…
They must have been SO sure the Yes was going to win.
What has changed?
117. Different situations Ted, different times.
The legacy of the covert interventions to assist rebels in Afghanistan may not seem so great now but have no doubt it helped caused the Soviets a lot of pain. The mujahadeen may have fought for time immemorial but they were under severe pressure from the Soviets and Western support helped turn it.
That history was also one of the main reasons why the Taliban fell so quickly when the US applied the hammer. People tended to forget actually how little active military resources were thrown into booting out the Taliban government. The previous history of the US British and French in Afghanistan and the relationships on the ground built up in the 80s allowed them to rapidly get that job done.
Reality is that occupying, pacifying and stabilising invariably requires more troops than initial invasion..something the US government conveniently chose to ignore in Iraq for way too long.
122. Will it? Won’t they just be told to vote again and make sure they get the ‘correct’ result?
125. Even if they try, there will have to be some superficial renegotiation which could very well open everything up again. Don’t forget we were told that our MPs could not amend the treaty in any way.
121.Check out Milliband’s body language, he is loving the position he is in. I have seen more of him pontificating on TV and in the press in the last couple of weeks than I have for the last 6 months.
Coincidence - I don’t think so, he is campaigning and letting everyone know that he is available should he be called upon.
And as for Peter Hitchins, what a horrible and negative man. I have no wish to hear his nasty and negative views on politics. Listening to him slagging off politicians who are a least trying to engage with the public just gets up my nose, we get the politics we vote for, but as a democracy that is better than not being bothered to vote at all.
125. They might not be able to organise one quickly enough to stop an incoming Tory government here killing the treaty dead.
125 Probably but all those plans under discussion to set up the president of the Council etc will come to naught until the Irish Government finds some hook to resubmit the Treaty on. Could be late 2009/early 2010 before it is agreed and then the UK is approaching an election.
127 - Chris - could not agree more - Miliband is absolutely lapping it up.
129. Maybe we will have a proposal from the EU to build a third Parliament of the EU, to be based in Dublin…..
If he doesn’t choose Hillary, who would be the three most likely VP picks for Obama?
129. How long was there between the two Nice referenda? Only a year or so, wasn’t it?
132 — Look at what the money is saying: http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20819175&ex=1&origin=MRL
I don’t think that the internet has changed politics that much. After all, few voters spend most of their waking moments looking at various website.
There have been only two differences: firstly, the internet has definitely stimulated hyper-partisanship (though that would have happened anyway) adding that vital few percent for Obama. I also believe that the Democratic bloggers also were partly (though indirectly) responsible for the one genuine turning point in the GOP primary; Joe Lieberman’s endorsement of John McCain in late December, that allowed him to survive in Iowa and to overtake Giuliani as the candidate of the Republican centre.
The only other thing that I think is different is that Obama might not have survived Wrightgate, or ‘Bittergate’ (though I think he’ll be toast in the general anyway) if the hyper-partisan nature of the internet didn’t make a scandal out of every small misstep, therefore reducing the impact of genuine scandals. On the other thing you could say that about Bill Clinton and talk radio in the 90s, so again that might be exaggerating a trend that was already emerging.
111
“b) now that the nos are getting the gain from previous don’t knows it leaves that pool with more yes leaners.”
I can’t see your logic at all.
If ‘don’t knows’ are starting to decide ‘no’, rather than ‘yes’, and people are leaving the ‘yes’ camp then surely the logic is that the momentum is with the ‘no’? And ‘don’t know’ voters who arrive at a decision now are most likely to choose the ‘no’ camp.
127. ChrisD. I agree completely re both Miliband and Hitchins.
135.
A bit tired : ‘which’ should read ‘that’ and ‘thing’ should read ‘hand’.
138. Go to bed then.
136. Dave B. There are known Noes. These are people who know they are No. And there are unknown Noes. These are people who don’t know they are No.
130&137.I would go as far as to say that Milliband has had some sort of coaching for this performance. I recognise the naked passion and the hungry ambition that was not there the last time he appeared on QT. Much more confident and assured than I have noted him to be in the past.
I saw it with Cameron and Huhne, but not so much with Davies or Clegg….Why didn’t he go for it last year?
136. No one said the nos didnt have momentum that doesnt mean that the nos will also ineviatably hold the majority of the don’t knows as per that poll.
They might, they night not. My best guess is that they don’t and no one actually knows for sure.
Just to say, in response to Tyson’s comment at 12 - Morus has made a major contribution to the site while Mike has been away, with consistently excellent articles, and there is very definitely a place on PB for the longer more in-depth piece, especially at evenings and weekends.
I think it’s one of the great strengths of the site that we are able to give topics the serious consideration they deserve rather than the sensationalised, dumbed-down approach that characterises much of the UK media.
But by all means, if you think you can do a better job - guest articles are always welcome.
140
The don’t knows are noes who have not yet seen their no-ness. Once their no state becomes a self-known no, they will shortly become known noes.
140. Yeah thats it, what he said….
117 With all due respect the USSR didn’t collapse because of the Afghan war, but because they couldn’t keep up with the arms race.
144/140
In that category, the winner is : Rumsfeld: http://video.google.com/videosearch?client=safari&rls=fr&q=Charlie’s%20War&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&um=1&sa=N&tab=wv#q=rumsfeld%20unkown%20known&sitesearch=
136 It’s only one poll. There is an assumption that the majority would support the EU as default position so Undecideds would be likely faced with a ballot paper to make the safe choice and vote Yes. It seems a reasonable assumption in view of past polling and Ireland’s rapid growth since joining EU.
147
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtkUO8NpI84
No seems to keep getting topped up on Betfair - now up to 1.8.
Also there was a recent NZ poll with the Nats a massive 26 points up - have taken 1.44 on BF, but 1.35 & 1.34 still there.
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/06/those-hurdles-a.html
“Then there’s the by-election. No, not Henley. It’s the by-election that hasn’t been called and that people erfuse to talk about in public because the Labour MP concerned is alive but unwell. I can tell you that two opposition parties have already held planning meetings at senior levels, and one - the SNP - is effectively campaigning, boosted by the knowledge that it captured the parallel Holyrood seat last year. If this sounds shocking, remember that the manoeuvring to replace John Smith began before it was confirmed that he’d died, and Labour called the Crewe by-election before Gwynneth Dunwoody was buried. Politicians are an unsentimental lot, which is why they are keeping a close eye on a seat in Fife, none more so than Mr Brown. The next hurdle could be in his own backyard.”
145. Keep your Noes out of it!
Re Irish Ref - the other pollster, Red C, should have their latest out on Sunday. IIRC they’ve been doing them fortnightly.
No’s now favourite on Betfair, but still a pygmy market.
PP: No 8-13, Yes 6-5
Interesting, and could have wider ramifications…
117 the 80’s arms race was in part a response to Afghanistan from Reagan’s government. There is rarely a single cause but a multiplicity of interconnected threads of history, unravel one and outcomes could change.
150
“No seems to keep getting topped up on Betfair - now up to 1.8.”
No no, very wrong: I had 500$ called at 2.02, 2.04, 2.06, 208 in the last hour. Including 28$ at 2.56…
o/t is ‘l’affaire Chichester’ the Tory scandal Jack W has been promising us for the last two years?
QT - is Mr Milliband really one of Labour’s leading lights?
157 the blokes a total t1t. Labour are doomed….luckily
146- Exactly. The Afghan war was an undeniable setback for the Soviets but it wasn’t fatal to the regime. It was the cumulative effect of many factors that led to the ultimate collapse, with the largest factor being their ultimate inability to keep up in the arms race in spite of their best efforts. The Afghan adventure contributed to that problem, but Reagan delivered the coup de grace.
135 The Partridge
Backers will be relieved at your insistence that old man McCain is going to win in November.
Punters play with their heads not their hearts.
Malcolm
152. You are enjoying yourself far too much.
If Miliband is the answer, what on earth is the question?
Milliband has a disaster, didn’t he? Theres no way he will survive a two or three month leadership campaign. Definatly Labour’s Michael Portillo, I think.
“Reagan delivered the coup de grace.”
Yes! With bold speeches and big fat checks to the DOD…
159
Stars and Stripes, did you ever visit the former Soviet Union?
Malcolm
Re. 163. I agree with the point made that he never really supported Gordon Brown. Very telling, and a host that wasn’t as past it as Dimbelby would have seized in Millibands reluctance to endorse the Prime Minister.
165. I dont need a time machine to know that Germany before ww2 was an unpleasant place.
Benedict Brogan’s comments about Brown’s position and the issue of 42 days look on the money now I have heard Diane Abbots views on the PLP meeting.
She said that the only topic up for discussion at the PLP meeting last Monday was 42 days, and that Jackie Smith had *supposed* to have given a great speech (ouch)! But Diane reckons what really happened was that Brown and the whips were on the phones all weekend turning the political thumbscrews, and that the government are not out of the woods on the vote for 42 days detention.
Now I understand why Frank Doran was happy to appear on telly boasting that he rolled over and got his tummy tickled by Jackie Smith’s speech.
146/159
As I understand it Russia ran out of money, so they couldn’t afford to feed their population. They were dependant on oil revenue, when the price of oil fell, so did the soviets.
“Yet one of the Soviet leadership’s biggest blunders was to spend a significant amount of additional oil revenues to start the war in Afghanistan. The war radically changed the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. In 1974, Saudi Arabia decided to impose an embargo on oil supplies to the United States. But in 1979 the Saudis became interested in American protection because they understood that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a first step toward–or at least an attempt to gain–control over the Middle Eastern oil fields.
The timeline of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to September 13, 1985. On this date, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia, declared that the monarchy had decided to alter its oil policy radically. The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices, and Saudi Arabia quickly regained its share in the world market. During the next six months, oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms.
As a result, the Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not survive.”
http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.25991,filter.all/pub_detail.asp
165- No, and?… (see helpful comment at 167)
165- Look, I know you love Jimmy Carter, but the “did you ever visit XXXX location” is pretty childish stuff.
When will abbot be ejected from our tv screens? what are the bbc doing giving airtime to this utter loser. i wud rather pay jonathon ross 20m than put up with this grotesque, morbidly obese haridan.
169
I bet Malcom will write: err… aei is an evil neo-con think thank…
Rasmussen poll - Missouri (change from last time polled, in March)
Obama - 43 (+2)
McCain - 42 (-5)
169- Very informative, thanks Dave.
Correction, last polled in early May.
You know what they say, if it is so good why don’t you move there…
172. “When will abbot be ejected from our tv screens? what are the bbc doing giving airtime to this utter loser.”
But she must be better than June “Yes, Yes” Sarpong? Was she there to give her own opinions or just to agree with everything that everyone else was saying - and showing her agreement whilst they were still saying it?
174
So Missouri is going to be competitive in November?
Bush won in 2000 and 2004; while Bill had it twice.
170 Stars and Stripes
I feel one of the factors that is overlooked is the pro-Americanism of ordinary Soviet [Russian] citizen. These people were aware of American and Western European culture and wanted a piece of the cake. The Soviet Union was disintegrating from within.
And not just the dissidents. When we visited people in their homes they discussed American films and TV programmes with us. They were aware that they were way behind the west. Plenty of electric goods in the shops - but all the same brand.
History will tell us that the US won the Cold War, that Reagan out-thought the Soviet leaders, but, in my humble opinion, Elvis, the Beatles, the Beach Boys and plain old discontent lost it for the Communists.
Just a thought. It was the icons what won it.
Malcolm
Diane Abbott making it clear on This Week that 42 Days is by no means a done deal for Brown. He’s not out of the woods is he?
18. If he secures 9 DUP votes he could well be….
180 - How do you change countries to your way of thinking? Make them want what you can give them, and in most cases that means ‘things’ not ideology.
177: to Missouri?
183 Absolutement.
Pay the Afghans in big bucks, do the same for ordinary Iraqis and Palestinians and they’ll follow the new car, fridge, TV, roads programme, school and hospital.
But that does little for the Arms Trade - read US, UK, France, Russia etc. The Chinese don’t give a fcuk for democracy but they love their i-pods.
Malcolm - old cynic
Shouldn’t be overstated either though. The Russians and by extension the “Soviets” are fiercely nationalistic and they would be far happier if “Mother Russia” pissed on everyone even if they personally wouldn’t have a much standard of living.
The war in Afghanistan, has origin in the imperialistic tendency of Russia and its successor states and that includes USSR.
The origin can be traced back to Peter the Great and his will/orders for his successors. They should have Mother Russia bordered by the 4 oceans Atlantic Pacific Arctic and Indian.
To say that they went in because they were concerned about islamists in their Central Asian Republics is quite naive.
The KGB would take care of that.
that was for 180
Glad to see someone else backing Brian Schweitzer for VP. I think he’d be a genuinely inspired choice for Obama.
On the POTUS election. Jack W has been arguing for a while that Obama may win a landslide. If Obama’s GE candidacy gets holed in the water, others have suggested that McCain could win a landslide.
We know their respective odds of becoming POTUS are around 4/7 and 13/8.
How likely do PBers think a landslide could be for either candidate and what could a landslide look like in terms of number of states won and electoral college votes?
184. Nah Russia…even on a bad day I suspect Missouri is better though I’ve not been to either.
Those soft westerners who by dint of living in free democracies can rant on about how terrible their homelands are and the ’system’ whilst praising, for example say Venezuelan nutjobs, and so on show their true colours by not actually living in such countries other than ones where they are free.
Classic cases of judge me by my actions not my words. I rate such people as people desperately grasping to feel different and somehow rebellious because it makes them feel brave. They must genuinely be hollow inside if thats the best they do to build their own self importance.
Would they stand in front of a tank in Beijing?
Feck no.
184 — You wouldn’t like Missouri, Mr Palmer: it’s one of the states whose legislators oppose the REAL ID Act (and bloody good for them).
Updated EV projection, seeing as there have been quite a few polls in the last week. Movement as follows -
Michigan - Leaning McCain moved from Leaning Obama
Missouri - Toss Up moved from Definite McCain
North Carolina - Probable McCain from Definite McCain
Definite Obama - Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), New York (31), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), DC (3), Delaware (3), Illinois (21), Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), California (55), Washington (11), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4) RUNNING TOTAL 207 Delegates
Probable Obama - Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9),
RUNNING TOTAL 247 Delegates
Leaning Obama - New Mexico (5) RUNNING TOTAL 252 Delegates
Definite McCain - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Texas (34), Alabama (9), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Arizona (10), Utah (5), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Alaska (3) Montana (3) RUNNING TOTAL 163 Delegates
Probable McCain - Florida (27), North Carolina (15) RUNNING TOTAL 205 Delegates
Leaning McCain - Michigan (17), Indiana (11), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), Nevada (5) RUNNING TOTAL 255 Delegates
Too close to call - Ohio (20), Missouri (11)
189
McCain was virtually at 2/1 since the last 2 weeks. I got called for a lot of money at 3 and 3.05. Even yesterday.
Far from 13/8.
On 42 days what interests me the most is the betfair market. as it currently stands (admittantly little money is involved) the odds for the government passing the bill is 1.03 whilst not passing is 5.1. The trend graphs seem to fluctuate about these values.
Is this purely just a liquidity issue, or an accurate reflection of the odds? Or maybe im just misunderstanding what betfair means by terrorism bill.
if this is likely to become a more active market, what do people reckon good value odds are??
Diane Abbot very bullish about the chances of 42 days detention failing on Wednesday. She reckons that the government with (the support of the DUP) would fail if 49 Labour MP’s rebel. She also says that a few weeks ago they had 60 MP’s ready to rebel, and that despite the heavy whipping operation by Brown and the Whips office only 4 MP’s have folded. She also mentioned that the argument being put forward by Brown and the whips on the phone to the rebels is simple “We can’t afford to lose this one”! And that some at the PLP meeting were putting forward the argument that the PLP has to be tribally Labour on this issue.
Incredible when you consider what’s at stake, why the hell should I or anyone else be at risk of losing their liberty to save this governments political neck. At the end of day this whole mess has been exacerbated by this governments Foreign policy and a desire to play party politics using the fears of the voters for their own ends. This Labour government really are morally bankrupt.
Abbot also reckoned that Smith’s speech was not that impressive and Michael Portillo added that a major briefing operation went into operation after the PLP meeting.
I am fundametally opposed to the idea of 42 days detention and my reasons have nothing to do with party politics. The fact that this issue has like the embryology bill became mired in politics by this government is abhorrent, was not happy that ConHom were also at risk of doing the same thing. This issue is too important and the stakes are too high, did we learn nothing from the mistakes made in Northern Ireland?
And to try and portray the Conservative party as being weak on terrorism when they unlike any of this government thank god have really experienced the hand of brutal terrorism first hand, a point not made more often IMHO!
Douglas Hurd was superb on this issue on QT, and he eloquently laid out his argument about why 42 days detention is fundamentally wrong. The fact that he served in Mrs Thatcher’s government added even more weight to his argument.
189
No landslide in view, from now, for McCain; if he wins, which I strongly doubt, it will be a razor-thin victory.
Obama can win by a land-slide, once the Party is unified. Just look at Clinton numbers against McCain….
195. I’d take a stab that there might be no more than 40 MPs at a stretch rebelling.
Any more than that and not only could the bill fall(DUP not certain yet but we’ll see in due course, if they are needed) but it would heap pressure on Gordon since, despite the concessuions, despite the damage it would do if he was defeated, enough still went ahead anyway.
I take the sceptical view that enough invariably know what side their bread is buttered unless they dont care anymore, it really is an absolute matter of principle……….or they are making a positive move against a leader.
On a more local note.
The results in the first four seats up in local by elections are in.
The Lib Dems have won all of them - including Red Lodge in Suffolk on a 57.9% swing from the Tories
Red Lodge btw has the best greasy spoon in the country (and the only one I know of that has a brown heritage sign off the A14 bypass to it).
1805- That’s what makes the Chinese government so brilliant. They’ve managed to cling to a good share of their ideology, and their power, by giving some ground to the people where it counts. The Soviets provided the lesson and the Chinese took it to heart.
By the way, the communist Chinese political leadership has a history of being quite wily. When Zhou Enlai was asked by Kissinger, or perhaps Nixon, what he thought was the historical impact of the French revolution, his answer was that it was “too soon to tell.” These guys are no amateurs.
Evening all - I’m drunk as a lord, and need to be up in three hours to fly to the fair city of Munich, so I’ll keep this brief.
11 (Socrates) sums up what i was trying to say. The media kept Clinton alive and manufactured possible come-backs way after she should have been considered a no-hoper. I think they did this semi-consciously, partly for the exciting narrative and viewing numbers and partly because an exciting one off race generated an extra $xx million inad revenue. The media were with the voters in trying to prolong this fight, when the Party would have liked it finished.
135 - Not for the first time, I strongly (but respectfully) disagree with Mr Partridge. The internet has been the main conduit for a fundraising season that has doubled contributions up to this point on 2004, and quadrupled them since 2000. After McCain/Feingold (a fantastic piece of legislation), this democratised donating, and would have meant significantly less money without the internet.
Secondly, the hyperpartisanship has been given a voice, and reading the partisan blogs, you get an impression of how they shape the lines of attack well ahead of the realisation of door-knockers. For national co-ordination of localised campaigning, everything has changed since 2000.
Thirdly, the media sources are now mostly web-based. Every UK paper quoted poll numbers from Real Clear Politics. The delivery mechanism was still traditional media, but the motor behind it was the web-based media - both for hard news and for commentary. The only trad media that kept up was that which had a strong online presence.
Finally, the impact of YouTube - you allow that constant mini-scandals diminished the effect of ‘real scandals’, but without YouTube, they never would have been news at all. The mechanism for finding and releasing scandals has changed, and covers what the trad media either missed or never used to broadcast. They no longer have a choice.
We could argue til the cows come home on key turning points, but to deny that the internet was *the* significant difference between this ans (if not 2004) the 2000 election, seems to me to be perverse.
198. 57.9% swing? was it elected unopposed last time or something?
sorry, I meant 185, not 1805 (let’s hope we never have threads like that!)
193. PM. Quite right. The odds available on the Democrats v GOP would be about what I quoted.
192. ukpaul. Care to hazard a best and worst case score for each side in terms of number of states won and number of delegates won?
195. Absolutely. As I’ve said before, if this government was around long enough you can bet that in the end we’d end up with 90 days detention, exactly what they wanted in the first place. Its a complete disgrace. Of course such a morally cowardly party as Labour long since lost all sense of shame, but even for them this affair has left a nastry taste in the mouth.
All of this terror legislation is a slippery slope. We have councils using it to follow people around and see where they are living. We have people using it to listen in on telephone calls that are completely unrelated to terrorism. Terror legislation has even been enacted to deal with dog fouling. All of this stuff has got to stop. We need a new government that actually respects the rights and freedoms of the individuals again. A government that is actually willing to repeal half of this stuff, and certainly to put in place safeguards to stop the little dictators at all level of government using this for their own ends.
195 — Agree 100%!
198. I’m sure Mark Senior will be along in a minute to tell us how these by elections show that David Cameron isn’t making progress and that the Tories will do poorly at the next round of local elections in 2009, not to mention at the general election.
192
So without OH and MO, it gives Obama 257 EV, and 246 to McCain, right?
http://www.abcnews.go.com/politics/vote2008
197.”I take the sceptical view that enough invariably know what side their bread is buttered unless they dont care anymore, it really is an absolute matter of principle……….or they are making a positive move against a leader.”
That’s just it Yokel, I genuinely believe that those that will/want to rebel would do so as a matter of principle, but Brown having imposed yet another self inflicted wound now seeks to use the fact that this would be seen as a move against him as a lever to get this through. This was never about 42 days being the correct thing to do, it was about Labour playing politics with our freedom. Trying to portray the government as “well hard” as opposed to those weak lilly livered Libdems and Tories.
The government have not made the case for this, end of.
196
But will the Dems be unified?
The Obama supporters I see on Reddit are a pretty ill-mannered bunch, if they’re typical, I can’t see Clinton supporters being too enthusiastic about Mr Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/its_now_all_about_respect.html
re 197 but what price Gordon if he can only get it through with DUP bribes. Still, bribing the voters of Crewe and Nantwich never worked either.
12 - Tyson, I owe you a response as well.
It’s tricky finding the balance on this site. It’s one of the few places where detail does get digested, and people do tend to want more than they can get from the Guardian or Telegraph. As a consequence, when I’m writing main articles for the thread (as opposed to the continuation threads), I worry that I’m short-changing people if I don’t offer something that won’t be (easily) found elsewhere.
The last two weeks have made me realise quite how talented Mike Smithson is - to come up with three or four succint threads a day, and to inspire so many comments and offer so much insight and information in such a confined amount of space - it takes a massive amount of talent and experience. I am an academic waffler, so neither recognise the virtue of concision in itself, nor have the ability to work in that style automatically.
I think you might have a point on the length of articles, and I’ll bear it in mind for future pieces - though most of the next few are already written, so you might have to wait a while to notice any difference!!
And, of course, normal service will resume in ten days or so, when Our Genial Host will be back in the good ol’ UK!
AtB - and thanks to all for your kind words.
Morus
Why hasn’t Hillary quit then? I mean, I hear shes considering her position and may stand down on Saturday? But honestly, what it there to consider? Shes lost! Thats it, right? Once you lose you go. Or as John Major put it, when the curtain comes down its time to leave the stage? So whats she still doing refusing to get off the stage?
207
Sorry, I forgot to include Hawaii… Obama +4.
189- A landslide is to some extent in the eye of the beholder and to some extent is like the Supreme Court definition of pornography: you know it when you see it. But a relatively modest lead in the popular vote can easily translate into an Electoral College landslide, as happened in 1948 (Truman beats Dewey 49.6% to 45.1% but wins electoral college 303 to 189). I’d have to say that the chances of an Obama landslide (i.e., a victory by a substantial lead of at least 6% in the popular vote), at this point, seem about 40%, but a McCain landslide seems far less likely, maybe about 10%. Overall, I’d say Obama’s chances of winning are in the neighborhood of about 60%. This is all visceral at this point since there are likely many shoes to drop between now and November. None of us can possibly know what they will be.
211.Morus, my thanks to you and IA for keeping PB.com ticking over in Mike’s absence. You have done a stellar job! One of the things I love about this site is the fact that I am always on a learning curve whether it be politics or what ever topic the thread meanders onto.
Keep up the good work, you among others have contributed to the fact that the system used by the Americans to select their presidential candidates finally make sense and can even be very interesting. My modern studies teacher failed on both counts in that department!
Last thread’s 178:
how many fewer Tory MPs take the whip than at the start of this Parliament. It’s about 4 I think.
At the election:
Lab 356, Con 198, LD 62, DUP 9, SNP 6, SF 5, PC 3, SDLP 3, UUP 1, Res 1, HC 1, Ind 1.
Current:
Lab 353 (-3), Con 194 (-4), LD 63 (+1), DUP 9, SNP 6, SF 5, PC 3, SDLP 3, Ind 2 (+1), IndC 2 (+2), UUP 1, UKIP 1 (+1), Res 1, HC 1, IndL 1 (+1). [1 vacant]
(Speaker and Deputies included as 2 Lab, 2 Con in both lists.)
Fascinating referendum from Ireland. I agree with the remarks upthread - if the Irish boot it back into touch, I think the Constitution Lite fails altogether - morally, anyway.
Because then it will have been rejected three times - in France and the Netherlands, and now, in reformed mode, by the Irish.
Can you ram something through that just keeps being kicked out by people whenever they get a chance?
But then you have to remember we are dealing with a body as corrupt, arrogant and antidemocratic as the EU; so Brussels will probably think Who Cares, and they will have a bash at forcing the Irish to change their minds with a second vote.
But will they have the time? It might take months or years to tinker with the Text, get everyone’s agreement to the changes, before taking it back to Dublin, and of course by thne the Tories will be in power in the UK - and the Treaty fails anyway.
We must all pray for this, sceptics asnd philes alike. We all agree the EU is a monster of non-democracy, that will just keep on eating up our freedomsm, until it is forcibly stopped. It needs a bloody nose so bad it has to think again about its fundamentals. The failure of Lisbon would possibly be that bodyblow.
The Irish can do it. I don’t think they will. But they can.
All eyes on Dublin! Go, brave sons of Gael. Remember Parnell. Remember Collins. Remember Maud Gonne. Remember the brave boys of the Easter Rebellion, who gave their lives for Your Irish Freedom.
Don’t sign it away.
217 - To prove your point, I am a Europhile (generally) who is desperately hoping that the Irish vote ‘No’ so that we can have a guaranteed referendum on any future treaty in the UK.
The EU has failed every test of accountability, financial and political, it has ever faced. It cannot be allowed to perpetuate itself free of the constraints of the democratic process.
Will Brown take Hillary’s approach to democracy?
You can just imagine on the morning after the general election. The Tories have won by something like 43%-30% And outside Downing St. stands old Brown;
“I have listened to the people. They have sent me a very clear message and now I’m going away to think about my position. I may leave Downing St and let David Cameron have a go. Or I may not. Either way I’ll let everyone else know what my decision is when I feel like it.”
Stalks back into Number 10 and slams the door shut.
217. Of course the EU will come back again and have another go in brave Ireland reject the reformed treaty.
Lets hope it gets held up long enough so that we have a Conservative government in office, though. That way, we won’t be relying on other countries to bring the thing down, we’ll be able to do it ourselves.
Newport has two wards with quite large turnouts and all three seats in both up (postponed due to candidate death). LibDems and Labour both held their wards comfortably - Tories moved up into 2nd in the LibDem ward but no great movement since the 2004 results. The other results tonight also not very exciting except for that LD gain from a previously unoppsed seat.
Ooh I will be in Ireland on the big day. I’ll buy all the papers.
217
Dan Hannan, writing in The Spectator said:
“What will happen if there is a ‘No’ on 12 June? On one level, surprisingly little. EU leaders will conclude that there is no prospect of getting their project past the peoples, so they will simply enact it. Indeed, to a large extent, they have already done so. Most of the policies and institutions that would have been authorised by the Constitution/Lisbon Treaty have been implemented anyway: the Charter of Fundamental Rights, the European External Action Service, common rules on immigration, a pan-European magistracy. With a bit of lawyerly creativity, Eurocrats will be able to get 95 per cent of their constitution this way.
As for the remaining 5 per cent — chiefly the new voting weights, the smaller Commission and the single presidency — these will be agreed at a miniature inter-governmental conference in a year or so. We shall be told that there is no need for any referendums, since the changes represent a rearrangement of the furniture, not new powers for Brussels.
If the legal consequences of a ‘No’ vote are limited, however, the political consequences would be huge. The integrationist project would have been delegitimised. It would be clear that the EU couldn’t carry public opinion anywhere, not even in the state it once regarded as its most loyal daughter. Euro-apparatchiks would struggle on for a bit, rather as Eastern Europe’s leaders did after the Prague Spring. But any hope that they might one day win a mandate would be gone. So enjoy this referendum: either way, it’ll be the last one we get.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/721421/irelands-eu-referendum-will-be-no-walkover.thtml
223. Doesn’t surprise me that the EU will press on regardless. Thats what they always do.
I can’t wait until we get a Tory government that can begin to detatch us from this ghastly, barmy project, quite honestly.
The media plays a major role in distorting the true and proper course Democratic Entities. It can even be said: the weakest point of democracy is it entertainment and factual media institutions.
Let’s look at recent British history. Throughout the post-war period the media has developed a vilification ethos of politically figures personalities, mannerisms and projection to the electorates of various generations. This includes television programmes like Yes, Minister, House of Cards, Spitting Image, Bremner, Bird and Fortune, Ben Elton, etc. All of these examples attack the attributes of politicians as opposed to the actual politician’s dogmas or policies. This has conditioned successive generations of voters to take an instant dislike to any politician who possesses any of these attributes e.g. eliminating their type from their political landscape. In effect stripping the voters of widest choice of talent through hate!
Secondly, the media promoted to madcap exuberance the emergence of the Liberal Democratic Party throughout the 1980’s, whose central message was that a Third Party is need in British politics to transform the nation into a success! This conditioned a newer generation of voters into believing in the necessity of third thingy bobby to transform life into a success story.
An unscrupulous politician realised in 1990’s either consciously or unconsciously that mass media had gaping hole in the natural defences of democratic system. All he had to be was to practice, practice and practice at being the antithesis of these vilified characteristics in the entertainment and factual media and the electorate would without scrutiny give him the keys to Downing Street. Giving him effortless, instant and indirect connection with the voters, with need for problematic stuff like policies or dogmas! Tony Blair needed no genius, nothing between his ears, no success in government to win again and again because the electorate was conditioned into myopic enfeebled weakness – manipulation of masses.
Even Tony Blair’s mythical “third way” was simply the copycatting of the media justification for voting Lib Dems throughout 1980’s e.g. the electorate was, after all, conditioned by the media to believe that a third thingy bobby is needed for life to be transformed into success. No originality, no remarkable breakthroughs, nothing special, apart from the remorseless, ruthless and unscrupulous exploitation of the poor defenceless voter, whose sorry state can be blamed on the mass media alone!
As anyone can see Teflon Tony was never really remarkable man, just a bloke who spotted a gaping hole in the defences of democracy. This Earth is a very unforgiving place for the duped and the time has come for the electorate to suffer the painful consequences, regardless of the fact that the true culprits in the media and politics will sail through these days untouched by tragedy!
214
http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/treasures/images/at0069_4s.jpg
…and Tories hanging on by just 49 votes over Labour in a split ward in Allerdale (Cumbria).
226- Media accuracy on display! The more things change, the more they stay the same…
227. Although the Allerdale Ward voted 2 Conservative and 1 Labour Councillor in May 2007, the Labour candidate did top the poll. This makes comparisons difficult, but taking average votes there was a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of just over 2%.
Clinton for VP?
“Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday disavowed a campaign by some of her supporters to press Senator Barack Obama into selecting her as the Democratic party’s vice presidential candidate. Clinton said the supporters were acting on their own, and that the choice of a running mate was “Senator Obama’s, and his alone.”
From Drudge: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/05/america/dems.php
The blind fella will win Big Brother assuming he doesn’t kill or rape someone in the house.
Just wanted to add three things:
(1) Crist is excellent odds to be VP.
(2) Schweitzer is an intriguing choice, lots of strong points, but I still don’t think he will be chosen.
(3) Reagan was massively right on the one big issue (the USSR), which outweighs the fact he had disastrous policies on just about every other issue.
230. The one thing that I’ve decided about Clinton as VP is that it would look like she has been foisted on him, whether thats true or not. If you’re running for leader of the free world, you don’t want to look like someone else has had power over your own choice of running mate. Therefore, all other reasons aside, she wont be on the ticket.
There are lots of other good reasons she won’t be VP, but I’ve said them before anyway.
Hagel & Kerry: why we should talk to Syria.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121262346490946859.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
Incidentally, I think this is key to the whole Middle East situation. A Syria-Israeli agreement that hands over the Golan Heights eliminates Hezbollah’s reason for existing and will seen drop in support for them, thus facilitating the stabilisation of Lebanon. An end of Syrian support for Hamas, and the inability for Iran to get its funds through Syria to Palestine, will mean Hamas will get increasingly weaker and marginalised. A deal with Fatah is then possible.
214. We have similar estimation of Obama’s chances! I have him at about 65%.
Anyway, I’m the only one posting, so off to bed.
235 - it never stopped Martin Day!
235- Good night, Socrates, sweet dreams. I’ll split the difference with you and put an Obama victory at 62.5%!
232 Socrates re Crist being excellent odds
You posted that “He is also popular with conservatives and a genuine maverick (more so than McCain even) who would appeal to independents.”
This may be true in Florida, but I would suggest that the overwhelming majority of the American public (as opposed to activists) outside Florida have no idea who he is. And for the media it would be a dull story - McCain picks another white guy with white hair from the South. Blah…
If you were the editor of Time or Newsweek, it probably wouldn’t even be your cover story that week. For better or worse there isn’t an angle.
Maybe locking Florida is enough, but otherwise the challenge would be could the Republicans define him before the Democrats and would anyone care.
232/238 continued
Fwiw the same issue (Most non activists/non anoraks outside their state has no clue who they are and the media will write off as blah) applies to many of the other potential white male VP runners especially Pawlenty but also Sanford, Graham, Ridge, Barbour Portman, DeMint, Huntsman etc.
If he picked Rudy, Kay Bailey Hutchison or even Bloomberg the media would be more interested but would present the story in the context of “McCain picks X -abortion battle looms at convention”, which would be unhelpful.
Sarah Palin as Veep would go right on the cover of every news weekly and would get positive coverage for a week. Katie Couric and Meredith Viera would be all over it, even though she is Republican. Its news, where Crist wouldn’t be.
Likewise, Jindal (or even JC Watts) would give them an angle to talk about. Human interest etc.
This is why I think he may even go for a non politician like Meg Whitman. “McCain names E-bay guru as VP” sends all sorts of positive messages - not politician, modern, female etc etc. Story interesting and engaging for the average American voter.
tns/MRBI poll on Lisbon Treaty voting intentions in Friday’s Irish Times:
Yes: 30 (-5)
No: 35 (+17)
Don’t know: 35 (-12)
To SeanT and other far right-wing British Eurosceptics: It’s good to know that you love us really.
All those years of comments from The Sun, The Daily Mail and their ilk about “IRA-loving scum”, “bogtrotters” and “thick Micks” were really just your way of whispering sweet nothings in our ears….
We remember the furores in recent years over films like The Wind That Shook The Barley and Michael Collins, so spare us your well-concealed admiration for Irish nationalism.
If we vote “No” to Lisbon, which now seems likely but not absolutely certain, it will be for our own reasons.
Because we don’t see the necessity for the changes proposed.
Not because we think that Brussels is some den of horror full of Jesuitical plotters cackling as they hatch their intrigues to subject us to the unspeakable depravity of the latest EU directive on the correct depth of thread on tractor tyres.
If we vote “No”, it will not be in order to fulfil the paranoid rantings of people who are psychologically unable to come to terms with the loss of the Empire and the reality that they’re now just another larger-than-average Western European country.
We spent a long period as part of a superstate where our views were ignored and which was run by governments that pursued policies that were detrimental to our interests.
We know what that kind of superstate looks like and we know - Yes voters and No voters alike - that the EU is not it.