Another day, another poll, another record Labour low
June 9th, 2008
Populus has Cameron’s Tories leading by 20%
This is becoming so normal that it is hardly news any more - another devastating poll blow for Gordon Brown’s Labour government and this time from the firm that generally shows the party in a better light.
The numbers from the June Populus poll for the Times are: CON 45% (+5): 25% (-4): LD 20% (+1). Fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday so the party shares do not seem to have been affected by “Nannygate”.
The last poll took place in the immediate aftermath Boris’s victory in London and there was a touch of euphoria in the air. This time there is no such explanatory factory apart from the continued decline of Labour in the eyes of the voters.
Unlike ICM which has adjusted its methodology in the past month in a way that makes it a tad more favourable to the Tories the Populus approach remains the same - thus making these figures, the worst from a conventional telephone pollster, even more appalling for the government.
So the past week has seen three surveys from the the leading phone pollsters - ICM’s Labour deficit was 16%; ComRes’s 17% and now Populus is at 20%.
Will it impact on Gordon’s future? You would have thought that it would but I’m still not so sure.
Mike Smithson
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Yes but there is the hatchet job on Channel 4 as well!
Well another excellent poll for us.
I agree that Gordon looks safe, at least for now.
He’s going to lose the vote on Wednesday and resign. Perhaps Miliband is flying back to vote against (and/or not miss the starting gun)
I never believed Brown would be booted out before, but this can’t go on surely.
Show’s people care more about petrol prices and nannygate.
I enjoyed that. Shame I missed the only decent game so far in euro 08
very well timed programme in advance of the vote on 42 days. its hottin’ up.
A couple of people were asking about Henley so, FWIW, here’s what I saw today.
Was in Thame. It was very quiet. I know it was the day after a hot weekend, Monday etc etc but I’ve never been to a by election with so little obvious sign that an election was happening. That said it was recycling day and there were plenty of Tory and LD leaflets to see in the clear recycling bags.
Thame Town Council has a a reasonable number of LDs (5 LD, 6 C, 1 Labour, 2 Ind I think) and yet there are very few Lib Dem posters.
More shocking was the change from LD orange diamonds (which were there but in the background) to a smiley faced poster of the LD candidate against a blue and green rural background. Looked like a Conservative poster to me.
There were several teams of Conservatives out delivering but I didn’t see an LD all day. That really is a first for me at a by election.
The above all comes with the usual health warning that I’m only one person on one day in one small town in the constituency and don’t pretend for a moment that my experience can be safely extrapolated.
6 - It was breathtaking for how disloyal they were all being. Nick Brown was dreadful to Gordon.
PADDY POWER
Dick Morris:
“Hillary’s suspension of her campaign, and her omission of any release of her delegates, makes her a factor for Obama to consider for the next three months until the Democratic nomination is officially and finally his. Absent an actual statement to her delegates urging them to vote for Obama on the first ballot, Hillary’s candidacy cannot be said to have ended.”
Is that why Paddy did not pay yet for
” When will Hillary Withdraw?
After Montana/Sth Dakota Primaries but before National Democratic Convention @ 1 - 3″
I asked them saturday. Not answer yet!!!
Anybody knows about this?
Did those ministers know what they were doing?
Until the latest round of polls i thought the polls were more about the economy, 10p etc than about Gordon himself. I reckon that’s changed. The latest slump (on top of the bad polls before) must be a simple signal from the electorate that they want him to go. And as such Labour can’t begin to recover until he’s gone. But will automatically recover (a bit) when he does.
AVE IT FAIR MINDED POLITICAL COMMENTARY
—————————————
Labour = finished forever hahahahahahahahahaha!
In a new election graphic in 2010, we will see the 60 remaining Labour MPS on a red London bus!!!!!!!!
8. What happens when you don’t get made chief whip
Can they switch prime minister - yet again - without calling an election? Without consulting the people who will be governed by this guy?
Surely not. If they do change leader, without going to the people, they risk total wipeout at the hands of an angry electorate. But if they don’t change leader they, er… risk total wipeout at the hands of an angry electorate, coz Brown is such a twat.
Heh.
I think Brown will hang on, just, simply because changing him means a general election - and that’s the last thing Labour want now.
I say this sadly, coz if there was an election, we’d get a Tory government, a euro-referendum, and then we could finally kiss the Constitution goodbye. Taint gonna happen, unfortunately. Gordo will Endure to the Bitter End.
13 - Yes but usually the malcontents bite their lips a lot longer.
Change leader. Election in 6 months.
Re 14 SeanT “Can they switch prime minister - yet again - without calling an election? Without consulting the people who will be governed by this guy?”
Yes of course they can!
“Surely not. If they do change leader, without going to the people, they risk total wipeout at the hands of an angry electorate.”
Granted.
“But if they don’t change leader they, er… risk total wipeout at the hands of an angry electorate, coz Brown is such a twat.”
Good isn’t it? I pointed out this problem before Brown was made leader. Labour are between a rock and a hard place.
Crikey!
My prediction was in the wrong direction for both parties and the wrong magnitude:p
If this continues Brown can’t.
I don’t think it will (the polling being this very bad) but a few more months and Labour have got to ditch him. Or perhaps he’ll do them an enormous favour and resign?
14. That has been my take too but I am starting to wonder whether the Labour bankrollers (e.g. the Trade Unions )will agree to it or whether financial practicalities of the survival of the party might take precedence?
By the way didn’t one of the Unions have a ballot to de-affiliate form the Labour Party today?
14. SeanT. What would happen if the Conservatives won an election and didn’t give you a referendum?
Didn’t see the programme, but the comments were fascinating. Now tell me, ‘cos with no TV I really have no way of judging, would the comments made by the brothers suggest that they will support Brown for 2 years?
Dispatches was an odd programme. Although those interviewed were frank that mistakes had been made I think they were still loyal to Gordon - for what that’s worth.
17, but if they don’t call an election fairly swiftly the Tories (and Lib Dems) can hammer them on being little more than a Roman dynasty addicted to killing off emperors.
Well, that’s a clumsy analogy, but you see my point.
That Channel 4 Program was jaw dropping. It felt like they were talking about a PM thirty years in the past not still in Downing Street.
14 - there’s no legal obligation on them to call an election, even if they go through 300 PMs between now and the next election (in fact a new leader asking the Queen to dissolve parliament so (s)he can call an election should be told “no” at this stage, as an election isn’t due for another year or two and Labour still have a healthy working majority)
In practise, anointing/electing a third PM in one parliament would lead to huge calls for an election. It would be an interesting scenario
Evening all
I doubt this evening’s poll is the most significant indicator of the day - that surely goes to the producer price figures which must surely kill any thought of an interest rate cut and must raise the sceptre of a rate rise as the MPC tries to control inflation.
Against that background, we may well see a very difficult wage round approaching as agreements made at times of lower inflation (and lower forecasts) are challenged.
On the other hand, it also seems likely the Tories will inherit a dire situation in 2010 - will we see an “emergency budget” from Osborne in June or July 2010 ? We still don’t really know how the Conservatives will handle the new economic reality.
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2008/06/monday-commentary-june-9th-2008.html
22. if thats loyalty its not worth much.
Alex
Irrespective - unless vote of no confidence, no PM / Party / senior Civil Service will call a GE in the Autumn. Timetables these days simply don’t allow it. This is why I and others were quite confident, while others were losing their heads last Autumn, that there would be no GE then!
We’re going down…
http://www.newstatesman.com/economy/2008/06/house-prices-housing-british
I want a ge.
22. I could only subscribe to that point, if we are talking about a post brown situation. With him still in power having half his cabinet speak like that about him is dreadful.
If Brown was watching that show, do you think he would have been happy with those members of the government that appeared on it? I rather suspect some of those government members didn’t quite recollect just exactly what they had said, and feel a bit embarrassed.
I am trying to think of a similar situation occurring during a Thatcher government, or Blair, or, even, Major.
Didnt maggie sack a minister who suggested that landslide majorities might not lead to good government?
16. No. 6 months is disastrous timing. Lisbon is meant to come into force on January 1st 2009- i.e. in six months’ time. The Tories will argue - correctly - that Labour are hanging on till the last moment, to force through the Treaty no one in Britain wants, knowing they will lose - but knowing they will go down having successfully betrayed the country.
To put it politely this is not a great manifesto slogan. In fact it’s another 30 seats down the toilet, for Labour.
If they change leader they will have to call an election, almost immediately, I think. Everything else just looks TERRIBLE.
I also think you are deluded to believe a change of leader would be that good for them. If Major had gone in 1995, to be replaced by the most popular alternative - Ken Clarke - would that have saved the Tories from a ‘97 landslide?
Nope. Might have been worth one or two points, but that’s all. The people hated the Tories, and wanted them out. The people now hate Labour, and want them out. David “Miliband” is not gonna save the brand.
20. I would personally go round to Cammo’s house and cudgel his pet cat to death with a proof copy of The Genesis Secret (by Tom Knox (recently sold to Bulgaria in a low four figure deal))
oh dear . Is there anyone in the country not p1ssing themselves laughing at gormless gordon and his busted flush of a party?
14 Depends if you are talking constitutionally or morally.
If the former then sure they can. We elect MPs not PMs. It is up to the MPs to decide who their leader is in the house.
If the latter then they should go to see the Queen the day he resigns and get her to dissolve Parliament. Everyone knows it is the Labour MPs as a whole and not just Brown that the people are sick of. They should not try and pretend this is all Brown’s fault when what the people really want is a chance to get a whole new set of representatives with a bit more honesty and backbone.
Well, I did warn Gabble that “nannygate” could actually cuase the Tories to increase their support and that appears to be exactly that happened. Spelman looked very convincing and plausable as a “working mum.” A 20% lead with Labour’s best pollster is nothing short of earth-shattering!
Great poll for Nick Clegg. Excllent news that outside of the locak elections, the Lib’s have increased their share, if only by 1%.
Labours position dire as ever! 25% vote with Populus could translate as 20% with YouGov - Could we actually see Labour coming in below the Lib-Dems on the next YouGov poll? :O
29 lol so do we all!
34 - Maybe 50%+ for Conservatives in YG next time?!
Re 23, Morris Dancer “17, but if they don’t call an election fairly swiftly the Tories (and Lib Dems) can hammer them on being little more than a Roman dynasty addicted to killing off emperors.”
Do you actually think the Liberal Democrats could get away with that ‘)
“Well, that’s a clumsy analogy, but you see my point.”
Yes, but Labour are done for either way and have no cash either.
Labour can’t afford a general election now, no money in the kitty, party is insolvent. It will take 6 - 12 months to get enough money in from the brothers…
32, Tony Blair. (He’s in the Middle East).
21 straw sure won’t
27
What timetables?
GENERAL ELECTION
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38 - Shouldn’t have wasted that £1m failing to call the election last year then.
29. Well you should have gone before we left.
39 Fair point. The man that really killed off socialism in the UK for good. Still look on bright side, Blair will be in negative equity by next week on all 5 of his homes!
14 “Can they switch prime minister - yet again - without calling an election? Without consulting the people who will be governed by this guy?”
Well, Labour lied and signed the Lisbon Treaty without consultation.
Once Britain has been absorbed, the British will never again be able to change their own government.
You thought you saw the back of Blair? Wait till he becomes the unsackable President.
46 HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Surely this latest poll has got to shift the spreads downwards? They’ve been largely static for the last few weeks with fluctuations of only 1 or 2 seats but with all major pollsters now predicting a huge Conservative landslide we are long overdue some proper movement.
3-0!
Is this the shape of things to come?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/nottinghamshire/7445053.stm
Re 44, James Burdett “38 - Shouldn’t have wasted that £1m failing to call the election last year then.”
Yes, so much for prudence!
42 - McBean’s only hope is to retreat to the left NOW, gather the core vote (the people who’d consider it a total betrayal to vote for someone else so who are sitting on their hands) and get the unions back on side to bankroll Labour
It won’t save the election but may reduce the scale of the defeat, and may keep the Labour Party alive (if the state of their finances is as dire as has been reported)
36. Not sure about that, but I expect Labour to be down further on the last YouGov poll.
Dispatches was very funny. Should have been titled; How To Go From Hero To Zero In One Day!
Its amazing how one forgets just how OTT and absurd that election hype was. Brown was never going to risk the job he’d been lusting after for so long on a risky election just weeks after taking office. That kind of riskyness is not in his nature. But he couldn’t, just couldn’t stop himself scheming. He really is a complete and total idiot, isn’t he?
19.”By the way didn’t one of the Unions have a ballot to de-affiliate form the Labour Party today?”
Anyone know how that vote went?
24.”That Channel 4 Program was jaw dropping. It felt like they were talking about a PM thirty years in the past not still in Downing Street.”
Punter, you summed up my impressions. To see that trail of self inflicted disasters by Brown over the last 9 months condensed into a one hour programme really looked terrible.
But the very stark overriding theme throughout was Brown’s obsession with undermining and destroying a Conservative challenge in the short term. Every decision seemed to have a political purpose aimed solely at achieving that, rather than a genuine underlying message of what the Labour party stood for under Brown’s premiership, or where it was going.
Yay. Come on the Netherlanders.
A question for the excited Tories: don’t want to rain on your parade (oh, maybe I do) but what do you make of this paragraph in the report on the poll?
“The number of voters saying they would rather have the Tories in office, has, at 42 per cent, for the first time, almost converged with the 44 per cent either satisfied with Labour or dissatisfied but still preferring them to the Tories.”
So that’s 45% saying they would vote Tory tomorrow, but only 42% saying they’d prefer a Tory government to a Labour one, and 44% disagreeing. So either (a) absolutely everyone who isn’t voting Tory (plus a few Tories) prefers a Labour government to a Tory one or (b) a significant proportion of “would vote Tory tomorrow” respondents are current protest voters who don’t actually want them to win. Are you confident of retaining those voters when it comes to a GE?
On the poll: devastating for labour. does not sit well with Nick P’s sily w/e rubbish about the Broxtowe canvassing.
ps why do I keep getting the odious rod crosby details appearing where my name and e-mail should be?
Great poll, unless you’re a Labour supporter. I’m not the only person who thought the gap might go down a little but evidently not.
Brown will soldier on because it’s what he does. I still wouldn’t expect a swift GE if he does go, but I’ll leave others to argue that one.
32 - what i said was that the last 5 % that has fallen off the Labour poll score is an explicit message for Gordon to go. That 5% will return when he does. Any honeymoon for a new leader on top of that i don’t know - i would guess yes. So an ‘immediate’ ie 2-3 months time election would be good for Labour.
57, kudos for appearing given the dire poll and Dispatches:)
Don’t more people always say they like Labour, but are far less likely to vote than the smaller number of Tories?
’sceptre’ 26 - Shome mishtake shurely?
38 In that case they may as well heave GB overboard, hope a new Leader can save a few dozen extra seats and enjoy the next couple of years. The Titanic band played on. Wonder who they’d invite onto the Commons Terraces.
57 I’d say Crewe and Nantwich shows something more useful and much clearer.
What’s Dutch for “World Champions? You’re having a larf!” ?
57. Or, Populous only adjust for voting intention questions….
55.http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7443528.stm
This all looks like a pre-event brief though, so no idea how it actually went. The gist is that they aren’t going to dis-affiliate, but they may reduce overall funding levels, and they will reduce funding for MPs that don’t do as they’re told.
Just aw the latest rubbish from Nick P. Get a life and btw start looking for a job:)
57. Brave Nick. Bit like being conned out of 2 grand on your credit card but relishing the £20 cashback you’ll get on it.
re 57, Nick Palmer ““The number of voters saying they would rather have the Tories in office, has, at 42 per cent, for the first time, almost converged with the 44 per cent either satisfied with Labour or dissatisfied but still preferring them to the Tories.””
That is odd. Still that will also change in our favour
57. The fact your third paragraph is incomprehensible reveals, I fear, the silliness of your argument.
Let’s cut the casuistry, and try some simpler statements:
YOU ARE TWENTY POINTS BEHIND IN THE POLLS
THIS IS YOUR WORST EVER RATING ON POPULUS
YOU RISK BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE THIRD PARTY
Those arguments seem, to me, slightly simpler. No?
57 Are you confident of winning any of them???
Lies, damn lies & statistics me thinks - but few votes…
57 - the “prefer which party” poll won’t include all the myriad of adjustments that the headline figures will
Not sure where this poll leaves Nick Palmer’s canvassing? However, I do not believe any such canvassing can detect relatively minor changes in opinion. Sea changes yes, but not a change from say a 14% lead (or deficit) to one of only 10% or 12%. If polling companies have a +/- 3% margin of error, then a relatively small team of canvassers cannot be more accurate.
On another topic, Robert Aitkin MEP is in trouble for supposedly combining an expenses paid visit to America attending meetings etc with a private family occasion. Am I missing something, but what is the fundamental difference to senior members of the cabinet combining official visits with family holidays?
57
So this poll is actually predicting a Labour victory in 2010. How stupid of me. Thanks for pointing that out.
68. Really ROFL!!!!
NickP, as a member of the PLP did you feel betrayed by your colleagues watching the ch4 dispatches tonight? It doesn’t look like they are helping your cause.
57.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Are you saying that on the forced choice question, Labour is preferred to the Conservatives? Never mind how well the Tories are doing and how badly Labour are doing, that just doesn’t make sense.
GIN @ 35
“Great poll for Nick Clegg. Excllent news that outside of the locak elections, the Lib’s have increased their share, if only by 1%.”
Surely the elephant in the corner no one is discussing is exactly the opposite. With the most unpopular government and PM since the dawn of time, the Lib Dems are still down on their GE05 position and 20% Tory leads are hardly causing us to bat an eyelid.
Surely you would have expected much more of the discontent with Labour (even if only from the disillusioned lefties) to have come to the Lib Dems?
I think Clegg’s poll ratings are dire - and there is no escaping the fact that there is no forward motion at a time of immense unpopularity for Labour. If you can’t put on a few % now, then whenever can you?
57 “Are you confident of retaining those voters when it comes to a GE?”
Yep.
Bcause all those numbers are voodoo Nick. It’s certainty to vote that counts, as I suspect you know quite well.
I hope you have stuff lined up for after the Commons; I don’t mean that in a snarky way. The trend is the trend.
57. Did they offer the option of a Libdem government?
‘Cos Lab 25% and LD 20% (both the anti-tory parties) comes damn close to 44%.
57. One thing we can say about you Nick is if there is a straw in the wind you will certainly find it?
;o)
To answer though I don’t know but having said that comparing it to the Labour position at the last election where only 36% voted for the Government and 64% against I think it is a wee bit of a red herring.
Incidentally the total of Libdem, Labour and Other votes in this poll is 55% so what happened to the 10% who dont choose either?
My own spin on this is whilst some people don’t want the Conservatives in power they hate this Labour Government so much that they would vote Conservative just to get rid of them.
57 - On the other hand Nick, it’s certainly the case that a pretty large number of voters who don’t want a Conservative government won’t be voting for your party either!
70 - I do think we need to be a bit more magnanimous, the Labour party are waning fast in electoral terms. Personally I am getting less turned on by the prospect of the next election as I would prefer to see a proper contest than a one sided walk over!
my Computer has been down, damned broadband. The C4 programme will have Gordon throwing how many mobile phones, insulting how many secretaries and kicking how many desks?? A devastating programme.
77. If you look at the heading of the previous thread, you will find that the current Lib Dem polling of 22% two years out from a GE compares very favourably with earlier parliaments.
82, Hmm. A contest between Labour and the Lib Dems for second place, with the Tories achieving a solid working majority, but no landslide, would be nice.
And Ed Balls loses his seat and is later spotted hurtling through the sky in the vicinity of a large artillery gun.
BBC4 just now - Portillo on Thatcher’s downfall.
This has probably been posted already, but the Independent’s poll-of-polls shows Labour with a dramatic 16 point deficit, and at its lowest point since this particular record began:
http://tinyurl.com/4utbkm
“Personally I am getting less turned on by the prospect of the next election as I would prefer to see a proper contest than a one sided walk over!”
speak for yourself there James.
I’m with Norman Tebbit on Tory landslides.
84 - well this poll has you on 20% (behind GE05) - at a time of unprecedented unpopularity for the other left-of-centre party.
And you’re doing what? Absolutely zip. Going nowhere. Benefiting not a jot from it.
I ask again - if you can’t prosper in these circumstances, then when on earth can you?
Looks like C4 prog. had a clear message from all those close to No 10 : For Gods sake Go … Now would be a good time..
57. Nick, I’ll assume your genuinely interested and not just attempting to stir up mischief. I think what that answer tells us is that whilst you and your government are finished, people are skeptical about the Conservatives and see tham as the least worst option. Theres two reasons for this;
1. People still don’t really know, even vaguely, what Cameron will do. That will be resolved in due course.
2. People still remember the bad old days of 92-97 and whilst the memory of that last Tory government isn’t toxic enough to stop the Cons from winning, people do still have doubts. The only way those doubts will be resolved is with a sucessful Tory government. That actually benefits Cameron because it will focus minds right from the start. There will be little of the OTT euphoria you lot saw in 97 that will stop the Tories from wasting their term like Labour did and getting arrognat and out of touch as quickly as your party did.
well courtesy of Rupert Murdoch and £45 a month I watched almost all the Italy v Holland match and now I am watching the Gordon Assassination Show.
Remember Nick Brown was one of Gordon’s rottweilers when he was trying to despatch Blair.
The Populus Poll is interesting because of all the records it breaks but Labour cannnot afford Gordon to go or to hold a GE. They have to find over £10 million to repay their loans this years, most before July and if they can’t persuade Lakshmi Mittal to lend them squillions more, Gordon would have to resign if the LAbour Party goes bust because he personally would become insolvent.
Vince Cable and Michael Gove are very impressive as neither is gloating
A Double Reverse Roger, and from Populus as well, what a nice surprise.
It now depends on the 42 day vote, then of course the Irish Referendum is due and then the planning regulation bill (should have been Monday but unaccountably delayed). Henley and probable lost deposit.
There’s a developing row on Bank of England independence with Treasury deciding the BoE need a committee of City figures to advise it on financial stability (presumably drawn from Northern Rock, Bradford and Bingley and the other wildly successful City institutions who helped bring about this mess). Even with a Gordon appointed ex Home Office mandarin (who’s time wasn’t an unalloyed success) to be Deputy Governor in charge of financial stability the BoE has been warning for 5 years or more about derivatives, easy credit etc. but the City ignored the BoE. They could of course because the Treasury under the Most Brilliant Chancellor since Og discovered fire listened to the City not the BoE.
This poll will almost guarantee a victory in the 42 days detention vote.
29 - Thanks for the link. Gloomy but convincing. Economic depression, here we come!
With the ever-worsening economic situation as a background, Brown will be forced out, possibly over a totally unexpected and unrelated issue. Expect an election by July 2009, with a Conservative landslide. Hope the Tories are preparing to govern during a depression.
Nick Palmer reminds me of an episode on that very excellent Monkey Dust.
2 Labour Politburo types say to the expensive PR guru…
“Last year we said 70% of things would be good with 55% of things being better…Instead 80% of thigs are bad with 65% of things being worse…”
The Labour PR Guru replies…
“Imagine you were being beaten over the head with a baseball bat. If the attacker starts to hit you less often, that is a good thing no?”
See that sketch, that’s Nick Palmer that is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_Dust
re 57. Apparently a fair point Nick - except that the question was not a voting intention question and the results would have been calculated differently. The voting questions would have been turnout weighted - the other questions would not have been and so the results include the views of a substantial number of people who have no or little intention of voting.
This is the main reason why I tend to ignore these aspects of polling. You cannot Nick, as you have done, compare the voting intention figures with this one. They are are calculated differently.
71 How do things feel on the ground in the Principality at the moment in your view.
92. Vince was great on that programme. He really should be Lib-Dem leader.
94 For whom.
94. Why?
Are you feeling suitably silly for making such a big deal of nannygate now?
92
I agree Labour cannot afford a GE.
But I don’t think the Conservatives want one NOW.
After all, realistically they will have to raise taxes/cut spending… and in the short term the economy is going to be painful.
Far better to let Labour take the blame and stagger on til 2010.
After all Gordon can’t make up bigger ball-up can he ?
94 - I hope you are wrong, such important decisions should not be decided because MP’s are more scared of losing their seats than doing the right thing. It would be a disgrace.
94. Will it? Surely every Labour MP who sorta vaguely wants Brown gone will now think: Crikey, 20%, he has to go. And so they will vote down 42 days, and he will be gone.
Not saying that will definitely happen, but it’s just as possible as yr scenario.
88 I started Tories for Cable on PB. However our candidate is running him hard in his seat. The national swing to us is big. He may not be around.
The big question now after such a dreadful poll is. “if Gordon loses 42 days? is he toast?
94 - why’s that then? It’s hardly a poll that says Gordon’s worth saving.
104 Sean you beat me to it by 60 secs!
106 - If he goes before the election will the Sun headline be “Brown Bread!”
105 - there is absolutely ZERO chance of Cable losing Twickenham
109
no just HOVIS!!!
Re: The GMB union conference - first 6 of 35 Labour MP’s to lose funding are announced.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2329715.0.Union_punishes_MPs_for_contempt.php
110. Bold prediction.
57. Oh dear Nick. You are on 25%, only a few points ahead of a fringe party, and yet you are asking whether the party 20 points ahead of you is confident of holding on to its support. Much as I have enjoyed ribbing you in the past, my overwhelming feeling when I read your posts now is of pity.
I am beginning to wonder if issues like Conservative MEPS and the propsterous Crick story on Caroline Spelman are a complete irrelevance. The electorate want Labour out… period.
Last week a group of Scottish Labour MPs apparently had a meeting with Harriet Harman to voice their concerns about the next election. They believe up to 22 could lose to the SNP. If that happens you can add another 10 losing to the Tories and we will be looking at Gordon Brown being one of around a dozen remaining Labour MPs and outwith the Highlands there would be no LibDems left.
This will not happen because frankly there are large parts of Labour Scotland where such a high percentage of the electorate all live on state benefits that they will not worry about mortgage rates and they have no idea what savings are.
I remember however seeing on a Baxter assessment Glasgow North going Tory. If any constituency in Glasgow ever votes Tory before the next boundary changes then this will be it.
Goodness hearing Peter Hain saying Labour might win the next election must be seriously worrying. Doesn’t he sit for Neath or some equally rock solid Labour seat.
I wonder what Newsnight will be saying in 30 mins?
Not a good poll for Labour. I discovered tonight that even my daughter has signed a petition to Downing Street about something or other which suggests to me that the game is close to being up!
IRISH REF. ON LISBON TREATY
Today, the main political united beyond partisanery to promote the YES.
“Main parties unite in call for Lisbon support” :
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0609/breaking62.htm
As well as big businesses:
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSL0968985320080609
However, I wonder if the common folks will follow the establishment.
“The biggest threat to the treaty is voters who were once unquestioningly pro-European but who have now swung against the EU project.
Paula Tyrrell, a 39-year-old Dubliner and accounts clerk, said: “I was a ‘yes’ at the beginning of this campaign. But I think we’ll lose our influence with this treaty. Europe will be run by so many little politicians - I mean the MEPs. I know we’re being told that won’t be the case, but I’ve done my reading and I’ve made up mind.”
Joanne Stack, 19, an insurance company secretary, said that she would always have been inclined to take the advice of the Government - but not any more. “Our country will have far less of a say; it’ll give big countries more power and we will have less influence. Our special low corporation tax rate will go. The Government says that’s not true but I feel we can’t trust them any more. They want to keep the rest of Europe happy,” she said.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4100441.ece
112 Laura Sandys was already assured of victory, but now…
Con gain twickenham
Re 94, Gabble “This poll will almost guarantee a victory in the 42 days detention vote.”
It will not bring back to the fold those who think Gordon should go, especially of promised Milliband the boy wonder!
29 Based on my involvement with the housing market, I would regard that as over-pessimistic, although I have relatively few first time buyers among my clients. A large proportion of my clients are dead, and their heirs will often cut prices sharply to achieve a sale. Nevertheless, I can well remember how things were in the late eighties/early nineties, and we’re still not in that position, grave though the situation is.
57 The 44% will include plenty of non-voters, so there’s no comfort there for Labour. Yougov’s forced choice gives the real position.
117 It surely is,hope Labour is generous in a massive landslide defeat as Michael Portillo was.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2329719.0.Ministers_unite_in_plea_for_Yes_vote_in_EU_referendum.php
The Herald’s take on the Irish Referendum.
Love muppet Murphy’s quote at the end. Typical of a Government minister in a muddle.
It seems panic is breaking out all over.
A bit surprised by the poll I speculated on the other thread whether it would drop to 27 the lowest since 1987 with Populus.
25… Is that like a 19 with Yougov?
If Yougov does hit 19 then I think the 3 totemic results of bad locals, losing C&N and a 19 poll will have been reached. A defeat on 42 days would be a bonus.
119. Indeed I have a vested interest. I was brought up there and my family still live there. Will be good to see Ladyman dumped out on his jacksie!
30,43: In all seriousness, you don’t. You want Labour to be irrevocably tarnished as the party of the coming economic disaster. The whole economy is mired in debt, inflation is rising, house prices are crashing and standards of living are falling. Labour will suffer for years and years after having rashly promised no more boom and bust, as the coming bust shows more signs every day of being epic.
There is little the tories can do about it anyway, so they are well out of it for now.
117. Con GAIN luvvies
112
“If Roy Hodgson could get Fulham out of that scrape, he could help Labour win the next General Election.”
Interesting suggestion for a replacement Labour leader from the GMB spokesman…
129 LOL!
117. Good god, things must be grim.
Dont think Labour has yet bottomed out.That will probably come when they lose their deposit in Henley.
If Populus has Lib dems on 20% then ICM guardian the most favourable to Lib dems on 20% is likley to show 22 or even 23%.Post Henley assuming Lib dems reasonable second and Labour loss of deposit we may just see a poll with Labour Lib dem level pegging but doubt that ther eia serious chance of Lib Dems over taking Labour
And if they did it would lead to a massive Tory landslide.
Relaunch 94 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7444238.stm
129. Is Roy Hodgson a socialist then? Hope not as I quite like him, plus he made me a fair bit when Fulham stayed up.
117 is there any point whatsoever in those petitions? has anything significant ever been changed? Or was it just one in the series of “listening government” PR moves? Maybe it was a relaunch…
TERRORISM BILL
When is the Parliament supposed to vote on the Bill?
116.Easterross, have you got any info on what is happening inside the SLP at Holyrood? Its very quiet at the moment, almost too quiet considering the polls! Wendy Alexander seems to have a lot of trouble retaining staff and that can’t be helping the situation, you also have to wonder what her relationship with her MSP colleagues is like after so many embarrassing disaster’s on the strategy front?
134
Roy Hodgson= Legend. As a Fulham supporter , Roy walks on water!
136 There is a vote tomorrow on various bits including the amendment to Coroners role - for which The Young Pretender is being forced to return from the Lebanon as winning the vote takes priority over World Peace - then following day on 42 days. The Government could be defeated over other clauses besides 42 days - not sure if Mr Miliband takes over if that happens.
I see the govt has a response to the new poll: not a relaunch, but trailing Iraq withdrawals, MoD codename “Operation Save BrownHide”.
*Gadzooks* as Boris would say (Allegedly!), what a poll for the Tories.
It looks to me as though the next poll change will happen if Brown succombs otherwise likely to be more of the same. If Brown actually wins “the vote” would it improve his poll numbers, i doubt it but does anybody else think that a parliamentry victory would precipatate some sort of popular bonus? I think because he has endegered his tenure at No.10 by calling the vote in such a way - if he gets it though nobody will give a stuff! Silly man - As much strategic pennash has a battered sausage!
It amused me watching Brown the first year on channel 4, did the cabinet ministers actually think it was going to be a positive piece? Hazel Blears, I don’t think an election should have been called - she was not saying that on question time and newsnight!
oh-well i look forward to more Miliband *shat* himself expressions, if he ever really wants to be PM he has to stop doing that!
140
Its an irrelevance. The electorate know Brown dissembled on troops coming home (half were in Germany ready to go and half were already back home.
If every last soldier left Iraq, it would make no difference IMHO.
57. Will you be telling Gordon to call a GE on such a wonderful poll?
Me thinks not!!
142. I can never understand why British Troops are still in Germany? What’s the point? The Germans don’t go anywhere else really in the numbers the Brits do - so why keep them anymore? Better off having them here or where they will make some difference to forces in combat and relieve the strain.
New Rasmussen Polls for New Jersey and Texas :
New Jersey
McCain 39% .. Obama 48%
Texas
McCain 52% .. Obama 39%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_jersey/election_2008_new_jersey_presidential_election
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/election_2008_texas_presidential_election
143. I don’t think Brown will ever call a GE volountarily - he will either be made redundant by the PLP or run to the end and made to have an election automatically.
Martin Coxall on the last thread made comment on Kevan Jones drawing comment if he wasn’t whiter than white?
Might like to look at this link
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/06/a-comment-on-th.html
For those in the, ‘Is Brown corrupt and if so on what level?’ debate, there link in that article to details of the outstanding expenses investigation into Brown [claiming for the full rent on premises, part of which he then sublet.
Remember the BBC broo hah over that? No me neither.
Just out of interest has Brown been as detached from the PLP as Thatcher was from the Parliamentry Conservative Party?
I know much was made early on in the press that Brown would invite new MP’s to No.11 after 1997, 2001 and 2005. But has he become a distant and disconted figure with the PLP?
144 - Luneberg Heath. A large, flat, tank-driving paradise.
148. Martin your posts are becoming more and more serious. Are you finally abandoning the ‘jolly nutcase’ disguise that has annoyed Mark Senior so much?
127 Yes but now the Conservatives are certainties 2/5 on and Labour no chance at 9/4 which makes no sense surely it should 10-1 on the tories.
The question of what would you do, surely has to be answered shortly, and cuts in public spending have to be on the agenda.
147. Well, I still think that Brown and his life time mortgage on his London flat may be of interest, particularly as he gave a hefty sum to the Labour party last year. I don’t think the tax payer should be funding equity release programs - I hope this is not the case.
Obama seems to be attempting to mark out the economy as his territory. Good plan in my view:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/10/us/politics/09cnd-obama.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
140.”I see the govt has a response to the new poll: not a relaunch, but trailing Iraq withdrawals, MoD codename “Operation Save BrownHide”.”
I know, still more attempts at the most cynical political spin. I see Nick Robinson was saying that they had learnt the lessons of the infamous visit to Iraq to announce a troop withdrawal that never happened. This is just more of the same vacuous and grubby headline grabbing methods we have come to associate with this government. How about waiting until you have some concrete to announce which you know that you will be able to implement? That would entail a bit of honesty, something Labour are incapable of when it comes to Foreign policy.
57 The last YouGov poll I believe showed the tory lead to be lower than the sample saying they wanted to see a tory government (54%). I don’t remember you making a big deal of that number.
Times are desperate but don’t embarrass yourself by posting this sort of rubbish - it should be beneath you.
Vote against 42 days and get rid of this awful loony your lot foisted on the country - I have lived under 8 PMs and Gordon Brown is the first one I think is simply not up to the stresses and strains of the job - He should go for, his own good and the good of the country.
Can’t remember ever seeing a poll which put the Tories at the same level as Lab + Lib Dems put together. Surely Gordon can’t carry on beyond the Autumn if this keeps up?
151. Just as they were in 1979. Read the manifesto - it talked of there being no doubt ’substantial economies’ would be required.
This is what people want now, with their own budgets being savagely squeezed.
Sporting Index’s election seats market remains curiously unmoved by this poll. You can still sell Labour at 237, or buy Tories at 344, or buy LDs at 48.
I wonder why punters are proving so slow to react to the latest news?
150. I think the “jolly-nut case postings were a result of the political landscape becoming Boring:
1) Labour seemed to have died and there is no fun in bayonetting a corpse.
2) Mark has been a bit pompus in the past by suggesting that the LD’s are impeccable and any analyis of their position does not count due to local factors or rigged UNS predicitions on Electoral calcus.
136 - according to the commons website ‘conclusion of remaining stages’ on wed. thanks to all who offered odds of 1.2 on betfair that the govt would lose the bill at third reading. absolutely no chance of that happening, whatever happens to 42 days.
New Rasmussen Poll for Wisconsin :
McCain 43% .. Obama 45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election
148 The change in Martin’s posts in the last couple of days has been noticed , I hope the smiley face button on his computer remains broken and he continues with his trend of more thoughtful and intelligent posts .
Brown’s future is not quite directly related to the polls yet. If that was it they’d let him have time.
But it isnt it, its the fear he is rudderless. His future is going to be more affected in the very short term by things such as tricky parliamentary votes.
Best place to be tonight..in Belfast, in a pub with a mad Itay fan…I enjoyed it immensely.
126 jsfl lucky you, sanwich is beautiful.
144. Training…and theres not enough places here to bring them all back.
158. See 163.
And to add to it, people have had this Tories must lead by 5 million billion percent to get a majority idea fed to them, and they’ve bought it.
137 Chris to answer your question, the SCottish press are reporting well placed Labour sources as saying that Bendy Wendy is on a high because for 2 weeks in a row she hasn’t been kicked to bits by Alex Salmond. Some of those with a brain (and that excludes most Labour MSPs) believe she is deluding herself and that she will sleepwalk into disaster.
As Gordon Brown’s mouthpiece in Scotland, if he falls her feet won’t touch the ground as she is shuffled off stage. Ian Gray currently a favourite to take over. That suits me as David McLetchie turfed him out of Pentlands in 2003 and he is not nearly as good as he thinks he is. Sadly I will miss the chance to have lunch with him next week as I am off to Budapest on business.
Apparently the GMB do not intend to remove funding from any of the SCottish MPs they support. Will this cause even more resentment in the PLP among the toady STephen Ladymans of this world who have just been told today they their golden geese are well and truly goosed!!
155.”I have lived under 8 PMs and Gordon Brown is the first one I think is simply not up to the stresses and strains of the job - He should go for, his own good and the good of the country.”
And that is the biggest issue facing Brown and his government, people just don’t think he is up to the job especially when people are concerned about where our economy and Foreign policy is heading.
157 Yes maybe thats why Unison and the Royal College of Nursing accepted a 3 year deal.
Maybe thinking better get it now as a new government in its first year will get all the nasties out of the way quickly in its first budget and public spending round.
Reality will kick in shortly from the brothers, they always do better with a Conservative government don`t they.
Brown safe until 2010 - no nuts to get rid.
From previous thread: I expect [Populus'] findings to follow the recent ICM poll and maintain or exceed their reported Tory lead last month.
I was proved correct this evening and I expect the polls to get considerably worse for Gordon, if not in the next couple of months, then certainly by the Autumn as the economy moves sharply into recession and unemployment levels shoot upwards.
169. But the wonderful thing is, and being a little older than many PB. commers I still have to pinch myself occasionally to be sure it is so, that the trades unions are utterly, completely irrelevant. Maggie, thank you so very much.
Are there any Labour Labour supporters on PB who believe Brown should stay on until 2010 in the interests of the party?
158 PtP - It’s the same with Spreadfair, except that the Tories are even cheaper to buy. Furthermore, the GE Seats market appears paralysed with virtually no turnover recorded over the past several days.
Crick still after Spelman
167.Thanks, you get the impression that Wendy really is “Brown’s mini me” as a politician. I suspect that she is instilling as much confidence and loyalty into her merry wee band in Holyrood as Brown does at Westminster - not. For me, its her hectoring primary school voice which really grates. And although it maybe harsh, there is nothing attractive about her what so ever as a politician.
Salmond has charisma, but there is still a feeling that he is a bit of a cold fish. Goldie has the Tory matron can do anything I set my mind too manner (like Carol Thatcher) with everything she tackles, and her teacher tone is attractive because of the genuine dry wit behind it. And as for Stephen Nicol, he cannot even deliver a good line well because he is so charisma free and lacking in political weight. He does occasionally make a useful insight, but it gets lost in that wave of invisibility.
Right, better retire now after that catty outburst.
Michael CRick just sounded on Newsnight as though his “scoop” last week about La Spellman was total pish.
Re what George Osborne will do if he inherits a bust economy, its fairly simple. He will take out the Sir Geoffrey Howe notebook on “How I sorted out the Labour economic mess 1974-1979″ and use it to guide him. The Tories are used to clearing up the mess left by profligate Labour governments.
175. What a pathetic little oik he is.
175 = Betsygate pt2
Martha must be so f*****g annoyed at that little cretin.
Newsnight Scotland is about to carry a piece indicating the Lord Advocate in Scotland is not persuaded of the need for 42 days. An interesting development because she was appointed by New Labour and kept in post by the SNP.
Her department is the one which had to investigate the Lockerbie bombings so it will be interesting to see what, if any influence her thoughts have on Scotland’s Labour Lobby Fodder
175 After Crick’s discredited attack on Mrs IDS he could suffer a great deal professionally if Spelman investigation by Standards Commission doesn’t find as they did in that case that she has done anything wrong. Newsnight and the BBC made a big story of it, based on his reporting, and if its found that his questioning of the nanny wasn’t as thorough as it should have been the ?BBC will not be pleased.
181. It was entrapment after all.
176 - A good line ‘Salmond has charisma, but there is still a feeling that he is a bit of a cold fish.’ Boom Boom!
Nicol Stephen had a personality bypass at birth and comes over as very lightweight. Who would have thought when wee Wendy was non-elected as leader of the Holyrood Group that it would be a year of disasters for Labour. Long may she continue in her post. If Brown gets the shove I expect she will follow. The Tory Matron does liven up question time with her wit.
181. If professional standards meant anything most of the Newsnight staff would surely have been given the boot long ago.
Crick rhymes with…
Michael Crick’s problem is that in a couple of years’ time, absolutely no politician of any party will be prepared to speak to him.
Yep, Elish Angiolini has said in writing to a LibDem MP that she agrees with Lord Goldsmith and the DPP in England that there is no need or justification for an extension to 42 days and she can foresee a situation where it would be necessary.
She will be the person in Scotland who decides how long any suspect is held in custody, not the police. Thankfully in Scotland the police have no say in such matters. Pity Sir Ian Blair doesnt have to answer to her. He would be collecting his P45 by now
166 Yokel & 174 PfP
Your respective remarks would suggest very considerable opportunities for speculators on the said seats markets.
Sorry she CANNOT foresee a situation where it would be necessary and as usual this toadie cowardly government will not put up a Minister to face questions on her comments
Pleased to see that Peter Riddell in the Times comment piece hat tips Andy Cooke and PoliticalBetting.
“Moreover, as Andy Cooke noted in a revealing post last December for the politicalbetting.com site, the old adage that polls always swing back towards the government has been broken since 1979: the Tories have done better than their mid-term polling levels, but Labour has slipped back.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4100544.ece
182 & 187 - the Herald article about Angiolini
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2329769.0.Angiolini_opposes_Brown_on_terror_arrests.php
We’ve seen some pretty dreadful pictures of Gordon over the past few months in no little measure thanks to Mike Smithson, but the one selected on Channel 4’s website tonight to feature their Dispatches programme really does take the biscuit!
57. Nick P - I’m sure you’re right. Labour are doing just fine.
Nothing to worry about - just keep things ticking over as they are - no need to make any changes.
Wow, a 20 point Tory lead with Populus?
How on earth will Riddell spin that in Labour’s favour in tomorrow’s Times?
183 I don’t really follow Scottish politics at all, but how do the SNP get on with “the Tory Matron” and vice versa?
The details of the poll are even more horrible than the headlines. Brown is given a lower personal rating than ever Iain Duncan-Smith achieved, and just 15% approve of the government’s record. People back the Conservatives over Labour on the economy by a margin of 19%. On these figures, Labour would lose Stretford & Urmston, Cardiff West, Derbyshire NE, and Workington.
Without a good economy, just what argument can Labour come up with to persuade people to vote for them?
173- not me- but i am a huge Italian fan that is disappointed.
Gordon Brown is now irrelevant.
190 Would that be the same, modest Andy Cooke who recently won the PB.com C&N Poll competition by a country mile?
A fairly routine evening of banter and point-scoring and that was the Portillo prog on BBC4 - Michael Howard superbly evasive and even Dave uncertain at times.
Re: 177 - You just don’t get it Easterross ?! We are in a new economic reality. Osborne won’t be able to cut taxes or engineer a manufacturing recession. All the Tories gloat at Labour’s woes and rejoice at the polls and none of them have a clue about the important stuff - running the country and providing good governance.
re 197, Tyson “Gordon Brown is now irrelevant.”
How dare you talk down our biggest electoral asset! (Well excluding Ed Balls anyway)
195 - Someone at Holyrood said to me - the difference with dealing with the opposition, with Annabel Goldie you can have a discussion with her rather listening to a monologue from Wendy Alexander.
196 A nationwide anti-toff campaign? Seriously, I can’t see any potential alternative at the moment than “don’t let the Tories in” in Crewe and Nantwich style all over the country. And it will backfire horribly.
Was the decision not to hold a GE in Nov last year (and lose it) probably the biggest political mistake made by any party since WW2?
190 - A very interesting piece
Elsewhere in the Times is a piece looking at the Spelman “explanation”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4100005.ece
Probably the notable element here is that Cameron is now distancing himself.
David Cameron said that he found Mrs Spelman’s explanation of her staffing arrangements very convincing. He said: “As anyone knows, we have here a hard-working, upstanding, reasonable and practical person.”
Privately, Tory officials acknowledge that he is relying on the Conservative chairman’s own account. One senior aide insisted that the party leader believed Mrs Spelman but made it clear that his support was based on currently available information.
190. There are scenarios where Labour would only have to recover to about 31-32% to remain largest party….
I repeat, they could “win” the election on 31%…
It’s far from over for Labour. [..and I've never voted Labour and never will..]
203 yes. I’m not so sure they would have lost it either. IF they had announced it properly in the context of the Conservative conference, and IF they had played all the right cards to outflank the IHT and other policies the Conservatives had at that point, and, the biggest IF, if Gordon had managed to keep up the pretty decent public image he had at that time and not done stupid things like trying to use the troops visit to overshadow the Tories, I think Labour might well have increased their majority. That would have strangled Cameron’s modernisation at birth and been a way for labour to retain power for potentially another 10 years. So, without hesitation, yes the worst decision.
204. yawn.
203 Let’s be honest, if the Tories had won an election last November by the narrowest of margins, which was their most ambitious objective and grappling with the same problems, but on the back of Labour’s supposed hitherto economic competence before Brown was finally found out, they would by now be deeply unpopular, with everyone screaming for the return of Labour.
Politics - it’s a funny old game!
205 - I believe you have said (twice) not so long ago that you would vote Labour for the first time at the next election because of your contempt for Cameron. No?
Re 205, Rod Crosby “I repeat, they could “win” the election on 31%…”
They could, but they will not, they will get battered.
They will also get nowhere near 31%!
205. There are scenarios where the Tories could win on a ridiculously low vote share as well, mathematically speaking. But they are extremely unlikely to occur.
183.I wondered if you would comment on that one Marcia.
Don’t get me wrong, I admire Salmond’s abilities as a politician, but the cold fish description was the most appropriate way I could describe that at times quite clinical approach he has despite the obvious charisma.
195.”183 I don’t really follow Scottish politics at all, but how do the SNP get on with “the Tory Matron” and vice versa?”
Jimbo, it became quite noticeable during, and just after the Scottish election campaign that Alex Salmond and Annabel Goldie appear to enjoy quite a warm relationship. I suspect they get really well off camera when they are not wearing their party head teacher badges at Holyrood.
188. There are only two short term factors that will see the Tory/Labour seat gap go towards Labour:
a) Gordon gets dumped
b) Some completely out of the sun ythat is entirely unpredictable.
Otherwise its going one way.
My own aim is to see the seat markets move to the equivalent of a Tory majority of c70+ then I will close out either fully or partially.
The other thing to note is that the talk on here for a very long time followed that hung parliament, Tories cant quite get a majority territory. Now that talk has shifted to how big is the likely Tory victory, it will seep in with punters, many of whom I suspect take a nosey at this site.
On a completely unrelated note. Oil. What goes up must come down. It may have further to rise but if it gets far as $150+ with the major economies suffering (they are all slowing) it will go down as the manufactured goods that use oil will get hit. It is currently in bubble territory and subject to self fulfiling prophecy . At some point some traders are going to panic and demand sioftens and there’ll be a thunmping sell off of futures. The only proviso is that no one starts blowing things up around the Gulf….I’m looking for an opportunity if it goes to $150 to set a long position on it falling.
The interesting thing about the “Toff” campaign is that it is rather ignorant.
The Toff wing of the Conservative party always opposed Thatcher and wanted a One Nation politics.
Mind you the Toff campaign is particularly stupid - if you classify anyone with seven figures of personal worth as a toff, then most of the Labour front bench are toffs as well. A printer friend of mine put it rather well - “I’m not going to listen to some stupid %^&%% on £250 grand a year tell me that the other bloke is too posh”.
205. They won’t.
214 Ridley was a toff and didn’t.
206 The polls moved on the first day of the Conservative Conference and move continued during the week. Yes the Iraq visit confirmed Gordon’s shallowness and inability to understand the job of PM and his “explanation” about why he put election off, particularly in an exclusive interview, lost him the media support but, while I don’t think the Tories would have won neither do I think Brown would have won a majority.
We would now have a Labour minority Government, initially supported by Ming through Queen’s Speech, but massively unpopular and probably due to fall in a vote of no confidence. The Lib Dems would be in tumult, Labour completely split.
209. I will not be voting for Cameron, the useless Blair-manqué either. I could have considered voting for Claire Curtis-Thomas purely on a local basis (she is a good, clever, sincere woman with no crazy lefty baggage, and the Tory alternative is a borderline moron.)
However, it looks as if I will not be in Sefton Central at the next election. I may not even be in the UK….
216.
Ridley was one of the few exceptions that prove the rule. Hurd never was “one of us”.
212 - i have the same thoughts about him from time to time.
206 Jimbo - but the point I was really trying to make was that tne poll that never was in Nov 2007 would have been a truly magnicent one for Labour to have lost. Brown in particular has now been found out and with the truly devastating problems (words chosen advisedly)facing this country over at least the next two years, it would not be surprising to see Labour out of office for 10-12 years.
199.”All the Tories gloat at Labour’s woes and rejoice at the polls and none of them have a clue about the important stuff - running the country and providing good governance.”
Stodge, how about letting them have ago before we judge whether they are capable or not?
They must be doing something right, they regularly get asked by the electorate to govern the country. And at the moment the more pressing problem is the present rudderless government who are increasing at odds with Mervyn King and the BoE about how to tackle the situation.
At the end of the day, Brown and his crew could be leaving an economic disaster to be cleared up by an incoming Conservative government. Do you think that leaving Brown and Darling in charge is the better option for the long term stability of the economy?
218 - To take up your new role as electoral adviser to the Burmese government?
218. Sounding like Peter Hitchins Rod
216. Or Lord Salisbury, pere and fils. The paternalists weren’t all knights of the shires - look at Heath et al - and the knights of the shires definitely weren’t all paternalists. Plenty of Tory peers were very right wing in Thatcher’s time.
219 Also Airey Neave MC DSO OBE, Old Etonian Toff who definitely was “one of us”,
Imagine the misfortune to have the first name “Airey”
No prizes for guessing what his nickname was at Eton!
211/215.
But the system is still skewed in Labour’s favour. They only need about a 6% swing-back to be in pole position.
Far from impossible.
226 Airey Neave, Colditz Escape, War Hero and Nazi Hunter.
Enemy of the Nazis.
Enemy of the IRA.
Enemy of the Lefties.
227 Peter, perhaps you should have more respect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airey_Neave#Wartime_service
You are coming across as a twit. I know you are better than that.
229. killed by MI5 (allegedly)
229. A great man. Anyone remotely of his calibre in Parliament today? No chance. Instead of war heroes we get cowards who pathetically ‘write’ books about ‘courage’.
231. Oh please Rod, not more of this b*llocks. It’s getting tiresome now.
I’m trying to make sense of the GE seats spread prices. At face value it doesn’t make sense that despite poll after poll the spread prices are stalled.
A few suggested reasons.
1. The spread already reflects Labour’s dire poll ratings?
2. Too many PB punters have all taken the same positions, buying Tory, selling Labour seats and somehow this has stalled the market?
3. Uncertainty re Brown’s position. If he goes before the election then punters expect Labour to improve?
4. Punters believe “the old adage that polls always swing back towards the government”?
5. Yokel’s point that received wisdom is that Tories need massive poll leads to secure a majority?
6. The sum of the midpoints of Labour + Tory seats on the spread has moved up by 13 seats since last September, while LD seats have only dropped by about 3, creating some apparent value in buying Labour, selling Tory seats?
Anyone agree with any of these reasons or able to offer an explanation for my final point?
231 twit.
Al Fresco, I didn’t intend to demean his memory.
It’s almost midnight, I was just being a little light-hearted.
231 - just before the CIA blew up the twin towers ?
you bitter leftie cnut.
Re: 222 - Chris, my economic wellbeing, yours and everyone else’s is too important to allow the Tories to simply “have a go” at running the economy. We need to see a clear, costed and coherent set of policies which we currently don’t have.
Instead, we have contradiction and muddle over tax and spending. You may be right in saying Cameron/Osborne will be better than Brown/Darling - frankly, given the ineptitude of the incumbents, it would be hard for them not to be. That doesn’t disqualify the Tories from scrutiny IF they are going to be taking over in two years time.
On the wider issue, my guess is that the Saudis are going to push the rest of OPEC into increasing oil production - that will burst the speculative bubble sending oil right back down.
I think now we could see $90 a barrel by mid-July - how quick that would translate into price reductions at the pumps remains to the seen.
Doesn’t mean the economy is out of trouble but could buy us some breathing space.
” Relaunch 94 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7444238.stm ”
They are being sent to Afganistan instead… seriously.
57 Good old Nick, game to the end.
Still clutching at straws, not waving but drowning.
The Channel 4 Dispatches programme shows the cabinet know the game is up. They are demob happy. Straw could hardly hide the smirk about his boss being Mr Bean.
Some things arent funny.
With all the Leftie nonsense, there is plenty of other material.
How about the newspapers calling a woman a pregnant man. A Working female reproductive system and no Penis. In my book, that is the definition of a woman.
In old days she would be called a Bearded Lady. Now the Leftie liars tell us black is white and up is down.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1264193.ece
And what is with the picture of her shaving? As if she shaves that bum fluff. It must have taken her a year to grow it.
Re: 238 - Clarification needed on my part. The next OPEC meeting is due in Vienna on September 9th. I had heard tonight however that the Saudis were seeking an emergency meeting over concerns about the rising price - oil eased about $4 in volatile trading today.
IF there is an emergency meeting, oil may spike briefly but for me the question is whether the Saudis will act unilaterally to raise production in the short term (as a favour to China, India etc).
Longer term, the demand side will hold the price up.
A significant reason for the lack of movement in the GE seats market is that many punters are ‘full’. In other words, they are as short Lab/long tory as they want to be. So a good poll for their position just makes them feel more optimistic, rather than encourages them to ‘press-up’. There are not too many people wanting to get into the market at this stage, when someone else has had the value.
238.”We need to see a clear, costed and coherent set of policies which we currently don’t have.”
Stodge, I agree, although Brown has been flying by the seat of his pants for the last few years without that. But, equally, I think you are unfair to expect the Conservatives to lay out clear and costed set of policy pledges at this stage without a GE in sight.
With possible two more years of this Labour government to run, and a very unclear picture of where the economy or the UK finances/debt will be at that time, it would be nothing short of madness.
I agree with you about the direction of oil prices.
234 stjohn - I think all your points have some validity, I would add two more:
The Tories have had a terrific run in the GE Seats market from around 260 last October to almost 355 recently - maybe it was just time for the market to pause.
Although their current 40%-44% range of support appears almost impregnable with the next GE less than two years away and possibly a lot closer, the market knows and is fearful that in reality this flatters their position and that it’s quite possible for them to garner up to 38%, just a few % points lower than they are now and yet finish in second place behind Labour. they really do NEED that 40% level and more.
244. david kendrick. And presumably some of these “full” punters lose patience when the spread fails to move, selling out of their positions, creating a brake on the market moving?
If I wasn’t “worried” about Brown being replaced I would increase my positions as a Tory buyer, Labour seller.
245 Until Mr Smith’s Shadow Budget of 1992 we rarely had “a clear, costed” set of policies. Indeed in 1997 we didn’t - we had an undertaking to keep to Tory spending plans for two years and a desire to increase spending on NHS & Education, balanced by the sharply reduced expenditure on Social Security promised.
Until, as Mr Darling said tonight, the new Government sees the books in detail they cant present a detail set of policies, they can only indicate their priorities, perhaps promising specifics in a few cases to confirm them.
It seems some LibDem whiz kids are deserting the ship.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/
The BBC have been playing lots of Tory programmes this, and the last few evenings on BBC4. I wonder if this counts as ‘bias’ or are the Tory party just a much more interesting party?
234. How much of this is to do with the upside / downside risk? This applies to both Tory and Labour markets (in mirror-image), but for clarity, I’ll use the Conservative one.
The mid-point for the Tory seats is predicting 140 gains. That’s a huge number, though present polls would indicate even more. However, there’s a long time to go to the election and Labour could pull things back. Question is: while it’s certainly possible to see a fair sized swing back and the Conservatives ‘only’ picking up 70 seats, is it plausible to predict a similar picture on the other side of the mid-point, whereby the Tories could gain 210 seats?
I think the market’s close to the point where even if the midpoint is short of the ‘natural’ point, the risk to punters of a Labour recovery is not sufficiently offset by the attraction of the possibility of an even larger number of Conservative gains.
re the spreads. The Tories have never since 1945 entered into government with more than 340 seats, and that was with a neutral or favourable electoral system…
250. There’s more material to do historical docu-dramas / documentaries on. Now that the First Generation of New Labour ministers have mostly departed the scene and many have published memoirs - or will do soon - the material should soon be there to do likewise for Labour.
The surprising thing about the Despatches programme (which I haven’t seen, btw), appears to be how open so many serving ministers have been. Usually talking heads only open up once their own political careers are over, and also the careers of those they’re talking about. We’re getting to the same position there as well, especially re Blair’s premiership.
251 I think David’s final comment is correct, particularly over the short term as the economy continues to weaken, but as has been said here many times, this makes it all the more likely that we will not see an election before may 2010.
just goes to show that you can’t get the staff nowadays! I’m amazed as to how simplistic most of the posters on this site are being about a projection of trends over a possible and likely two year period. We are all assuming that the Tories will be able to keep a level head and not be wrong footed by a change in Labour tactics. To paraphrase the “Apprentice’s” Margaret - maybe students of statistics aren’t what they used to be!
253. Three instances is hardly a very large sample.
250. don’t forget Decision ‘79 on Thursday night…
29 - What an amazing day in the trainwreck that is the UK economy - now a huge bond sell off across the board on the back of dreadful producer price inflation figures, and then to cap it all, that stat in the Spectator article that a million UK households are paying off their mortgage each month on their credit cards - I thought I was completely up to date on the economic situation but I’ve got to admit, even that one shocked me to the core.
Filling up the diesel tank cost £62, made me think when so many people earn about £90 a day before tax in this country, that’s one days earnings for your average person! Admittedly I can get about 500 miles on a tank of diesel on about 45mpg but still! With the US still stocking their strategic petroleum reserve at 120-130$ per barrel, and that Israeli minister comments last Friday, what price on oil spiking over $200 a barrel. With an Iran confrontation anything is possible now.
Dispatches - well put together, echo all the earlier comments, I don’t think John Major was remotely spoken about in those terms as PM even in the graveyard days of 1995-97, absolutely astonishing stuff. Never seen Peter Hain quite so frank about things before.
Crick - as a big fan of his even though he is Labour to the core, I think he’s making a huge Gilligan-esque mistake here. About 98-99% of the population will have no idea who Spelman is, and quite frankly in this time of unfolding economic carnage I hardly think this is going to get the juices racing - what about the Livingston wine cellar story over the weekend if you wanted to cover a sleaze story Mr Crick?
To put it simply I think the GE Seats market is played out, it’s sated, at least in the short term. It need something to kick start it again in one direction or another.
Come the election proper there will be hundreds, probably thousands betting on this market. Based on the current level of inactivity, I doubt whether more than a few dozen are taking an active interest and a good few of those are talking to each other on PB.com.
251. David. But as Mike has I think recently argued, should we not ignore what happened at the last election and look at the evidence now available to us ? look what happened in 1997. This feels the same to me.
For my part, if Brown leads Labour into the next GE, I would be amazed if the Tories don’t get an overall majority. If there is a change of Labour leadership before the GE then I could see a hung parliament, with even the possibility of Labour having the most seats.
In the first scenario I would be therefore be amazed if Con seats were less than 325 at the next GE, so the downside of buying Cons, selling Labour is relatively small at current prices. It’s the second scenario that makes me hesitate.
254.PfP, could the lack of movement simple be down to the uncertainty of Brown’s position and therefore the equally uncertain timespan to the next GE?
Maybe people are waiting to see what happens over the summer up to and during the conference season. Even if Brown goes, will we see a caretaker PM followed by a quick GE, or will we see a young turk elected who will try go long in the hope of turning things around.
Over the last 10 years you could have set your clock by the GE date and roughly known the result.
261 Chris - Brown’s future, or lack of it, is certainly a factor. The first murmurings about even the vaguest possibility of his leaving office were heard, mainly here, around February this year and didn’t really appear to any extent in the press until early April.
If he were to announce tomorrow that he would be leaving office - would this news affect the GE Seats Markets and if so by how much?
Yes is the answer and my guess would be by around 20 seats initially in Labour’s favour.
260. I agree: it’s the second scenario (or something producing a similar result from the Tory side), which is I think causing quite a lot of people to hesitate. Basically, the ‘tail’ to the curve is much longer on the low side of the Tory spread than on the high side.
In comparison to 1997, there is quite possibly a similar feel, but the starting position is very different. Labour had a hundred or so more seats in April 1997 than the Conservatives do now. In fact, the 140-ish gains predicted by the spread mid-point is very close the what Tony Blair did achieve in that historic election landslide.
That was by some way the biggest change in a single election between the parties since 1945. All the upside to the market - the profitable bit! - is unchartered territory. It’s not impossible by any means that Cameron could get there (Blair’s first win was uncharted territory in its time), but I’d say the chance of it being mid-point plus-ten is less than minus-ten, and plus-fifty much less than minus-fifty.
hunchman There is a problem that many of the more senior journalists are of the generation where Tory Sleaze ,b>was the story. And they cannot resist trying to resurrect it out of nostalgia, bias or simple boredom with the Brown catastrophe. Or all three.
It is notable how often these stories relating to MPs of all parties are very badly written. One Times article did not even seem to know the Spelman farrago was ten years old, anther journo didn’t seem to know what a gazebo was, and quite frequently they get the rules for MPs and the very much more loose rules for MEPs mixed up.
Where there is wrong doing they should go after it mercilessly, but too many seem too lazy to do much more than churn out someone else’s propaganda or their own predisposition to prejudice.
We have a free press but it is not earning its passage at the moment in terms of being informative. It seems more interested in simply slurping up its own gravy train.
There are honourable exceptions and Andrew Rawnsley is one of them and Martha Carney is another, although in general the BBC seems to be trying to convince us they are a conspiracy, not against the Tories, but against the taxpayer.
263. I should say that the upside is only the profitable bit for buyers of Tory seats.
One other factor to be considered is the relative financial states of the parties. Labour is seriously strapped for cash. If that crisis worsens, that could have very serious implications for campaigning at street level over the next two years.
On the spreads, I think they currently fail to reflect the effect of a Labour meltdown on the Nats seats. The aggregate current “sell” on Sporting Index for the three main parties is 620, against their current aggregate 616, with four more seats in England at the next GE - ie the spreads suggest no change in the “Nats + Indys” total of 12. (The balance is the 18 NI seats). I have high hopes for a resurgent Nats showing at the next GE, and have sold all three major parties at near the current levels. This doesn’t preclude a bit of speculative money on the respective seats of the “big three” as well!
266 SBP - For the SNP to gain more than a handful of seats they would need to win at least 33% of the vote, compared with around 18% last time. Not impossible, but a very big ask.
PfP - noted and agreed. But PC must be good for a couple - and the key point for me is I can’t see a scenario where the Nats + Indys get less than their current 12 seats - so I don’t see a downside. At least I hope not!
156. Can’t remember ever seeing a poll which put the Tories at the same level as Lab + Lib Dems put together.
It’s happened 6 times since the last general election, according to the figures from ukpollingreport, although this is the first time it’s happened from a pollster other than YouGov:
YouGov/Sunday Times 14 March 43-27-16
YouGov/Daily Telegraph 23 April 44-26-17
YouGov/The Sun 8 May 49-23-17
YouGov/Sunday Times 16 May 45-25-18
YouGov/Daily Telegraph 29 May 47-23-18
Populus/The Times 8 June 45-25-20
(And, apparently, PB can’t cope with the tt html element, so my table is ugly
)
SBP - You’re right and I bought the SNP at 8 seats some months ago which I view as a near riskless investment. Realistically I’m hoping they’ll win around 12-14 seats, but it could be more.
Bed for me now, godnight all.
Sorry to go off topic, but this tragic story has made me very angry, it just defies belief!
‘I was told I was too young for a smear test but now I am dying of cervical cancer at just 24′
“Twice Katie asked for a smear test, but was told she was ‘too young’ to need one. Now 24, she is dying from cervical cancer, one of many young women who have fallen victim to a scandalous change in health policy.”
“Katie Hilliard, 24, is terminally ill with cervical cancer after being denied a smear test ‘because she was too young’
What makes her story even more tragic is that cervical cancer, if detected early, is a preventable disease.
In fact, Katie had actually requested a smear test - used to detect the pre- cancerous cell changes linked to the disease - twice in the four years before her diagnosis.
Yet each time she was refused, because she was ‘too young’.
Too young to be eligible for a smear test, though not too young to contract cervical cancer.”
“Until a few years ago, all women in the UK were offered regular screening for cervical cancer from the age of 20; then in 2004 the screening age in England was raised to 25 (it remains at 20 in Scotland and Wales).”
I was not aware of this change in policy in England. Over twenty years ago when I was a student nurse I did a stint in gynaecology. The Sister in charge was on a personal crusade to make sure that all young students who came through her ward were aware of the risk even at that age of developing cervical cancer, she was sick of seeing it needlessly going undetected in this small percentage group with such tragic consequences.
She put the fear of god into all of us……
Not long after that, the policy changed and this was an incredible welcome development. This has been one of the success stories in our fight to detect and treat a cancer early, to then increase the age limit in some area’s is shocking.
We plan to offer a vaccination for this disease to girls in their early teens, yet we are restricting the availability of a simple proven detection test for the age group probable least aware of the dangers to them.
More economic gloom…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/06/rate_shock.html#commentsanchor
272
It actually gets worse Chris,if a hospital is unable to supply a life saving drug to a cancer patient and the patient decides to buy the drug privately,they are the denied any further NHS care.
Difficult to believe but true.
I’m just watching a replay of the Channel 4 Dispatches programme. Excellent.
A few observations. Seeing Brown in his honeymoon period, well it seems an awful long time ago. Confident, assured, cheerful, a man at ease with himself and the country. Then the press conference in the aftermath of the election that never was. Now a changed man. A wounded animal at bay, edgy, irritable, tired and drawn. He has never recovered that initial assurance.
By contrast both Hain and Straw communicate well in the programme.
Re 272, ChrisD, A tragic needless waste of life.
272- It’s terrifying to think that someone could seek out a preventive test that’s so simple and inexpensive, apparently with reason to believe she should receive the test, and be bluntly refused. I’m not casting blame (you all might know better where to direct it and, more importantly, act on it), but its quite horrifying. Defnintely not something for the government to be proud of.
Michael Portillo on Thatcher, “Some of us were in tears, we had finally woken up to the fact that we had got a rid of a leader who had led us to three consecutive GE victories”
I wonder if a few years down the line we will hear that same line from a former Labour cabinet Minister?
Re 278, ChrisD “I wonder if a few years down the line we will hear that same line from a former Labour cabinet Minister?”
I suspect the ousting of Blair will play large in some parts of the Labour party, whilst others will still think of him as not real Labour.
Anyway, I am off to bed!
231 Al Fresco
The MI5 allegation is in the wikipedia link that you posted up yourself ! It might well be a load of rubbish, but you posted the link.
Guardian predicts 50% house price crash….
http://www.contractjournal.com/Articles/2008/06/09/59644/house-prices-to-fall-50-over-four-years.html
I tend to be a pessimist, so I’m expecting the DUP to be bribed into submission, and most of the Labour rebels will roll over, have their tummies tickled, and abandon any last vestige of decency and independent thought at the onslaught of the New Labour Brown Fascist juggernaut. If the 42-day proposal is enacted, the police should round up a few hundred random knee-jerk members of the 65% of the public who supposedly agree with it, and detain them for six weeks just for a laugh. Perhaps David Miliband should be beaten to death with a frozen armadillo.
History has a great way of distorting the minds of those involved with huge shifts in political leadership.
Of course some Tories would have been upset about Maggie deprting but only in as much as it could have meant there careers and there mentor ceased to offer a less hostile path up the leader. I would not take what a select group of people said with anything other than a pinch of salt.
The Tories were not that bothered about ditching Thatcher until after the 1992 election when things did not look so good. The people who profess to the greatest saddness also wanted to be Tory leader or near the top of the party - strange co-incidence that - eh?
To fast forward to Labour now, the same pattern emerges, it is only when GB has been proved to have failed that people will become “Blairites who cried when Tony went”. These same people will want to rescue the party and take it to where the mentor won 3 elections.
The only difference between Blair - Brown & Thatcher - Major is an election that Major won (It was not against the odds either!). Whereas Major has all his negatives associated with post 1992, so he does get some uplift historically. Brown will on the other hand have his whole period of time in office galvinised by History as failure. Gordon must be really displeased with the historical place he has been slotted into. He would have been better off calling an election last year because even if he lost, he would have done it on his terms. Now it is going to be on others terms.
Roger
SeanT. I can never understand your insatiable desire to share your sex life with a load of strangers.
Why not? The details of my sex life since 1998 are listed on my website.
seanT
Back on topic, I think the world would like to know that I’ve just sold the rights to The Genesis Secret to: Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Russia and - yes! - Thailand.
But the advances?! Pitiful! Barely four figures in each territory. WTF?
Clearly I am now being personally disadvantaged by the ravages of communism. If stupid smelly socialists like, say, Roger, hadn’t ruined these economies I would now be enjoying healthy five or six figure advances, from ex Warsaw Pact countries, and I would be even further down the road to my first yacht.
And how many proles would have to toil and sweat to produce the surplus labour which would pay for such a bourgeois indulgence? I suppose someone like you would probably enjoy thinking up various debauched ways of exploiting and oppressing them
Martin Coxall
“SeanT’s inappropriate places to Do The Hustle”
Karl Marx’s Grave
The Intensive Care section of Great Ormond Street hospital
Zimbabwe
Er… Dare I ask what “The Hustle” is?
Easterross
Just hearing on Channel 4 News that Gordon Brown has ordered David Milliband back from Israel because they may lose the vote on 42 days. Gary Gibbons just described it as panic
When I read that, the first thing which came into my head was my distant memory of a report in the newspaper on 10th February 1984 that Igor Andropov, 42, son of Yuri Andropov, had hurried home “for family reasons”. Later that day, Andropov’s death was announced. Maybe Brown’s demise on Thursday isn’t an exaggeration after all.
PfP
Was the decision not to hold a GE in Nov last year (and lose it) probably the biggest political mistake made by any party since WW2?
No - that was joining the EEC in 1973. Or invading Iraq. Or the Poll Tax. Or Suez. Or (contd. p.94)
Perhaps David Miliband should be beaten to death with a frozen armadillo.
I could just imagine the look on his face as you approached him with your rock solid weapon!
285- Scorpions can be frozen for weeks, only to come back to life upon thawing. Perhaps you could think of even more devious ways to use this as a weapon…
Brown may lose on 42-days - even if he wins….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jun/10/terrorism.humanrights
I’ve just watched Dispatches… and as others have noted, the sheer past-tense nature of the whole programme didn’t give the impression that Brown is actually still the PM! Is it a sign that his fellow Labour MPs consider him in office, but not in power?
Nick Palmer seeks succour in the fact that the number of voters actively favouring a Conservative government (42%) is still slightly below the number saying - however much they may or may not approve of the current government’s record - they would prefer a Labour government to a Tory one (44%). The problem with his theory is that the latter group includes, of course, a large number of Lib Dems as well as Greens and nationalists who will vote for those parties, not for Labour, regardless of the fact that, if it was a straight choice they would rather have a Labour government.
The fact that the Populus poll finds a 20% Conservative lead despite a 10% jump in the number (61%) thinking the Conservative Party is ‘tainted by financial sleaze’ further suggests that what Mike is referring to as ‘Nannygate’ will not bring respite to Labour.
Interesting that the Lib Dems are narrowing the gap on Labour. How long before they push Labour into third place? After that, Gordon could go into freefall.