Are Tory poll numbers more robust than Labour ones?
June 9th, 2008
How much credence should we give to polls two years before the day?
There’s a great facility on the ICM website for those who want to check back on polling history. Just restricted to those commissioned by the Guardian, which is by far and away the longest media relationship in the UK industry, you can sort results how you like and, of course, check back on each monthly survey and compare it with the following general election.
Just before Christmas Andy Cooke wrote a guest column here which got quoted in the national press examining the widely held notion that “Governments always recover in the polls”. His conclusion was that this was more myth than fact.
The challenge here is the lack of consistent polling data over a long period on which to work. So yesterday during siesta time here in southern Spain where I am still on holiday, I played around with a quarter of a century of Guardian ICM polls to see whether this would shed further light on the issue. Comparing what the pollster was reporting for the paper two years before a general election and what happened on the day and you get this:-
June 1985 - ICM poll CON 31%: LAB 36%: LD 32% (LAB +5)
General Election June 11 1987 CON 43%: LAB 32%: LD 23% (LAB -11)
Net difference in the LAB-CON margin: minus 16%April 1990 - ICM poll CON 32%: LAB 56%: LD 6% (LAB +24)
General Election April 9 1992 CON 43%: LAB 35%: LD 18% (LAB -8)
Net difference in the LAB-CON margin: minus 16%May 1995 - ICM poll CON 29%: LAB 48%: LD 19% (LAB +19)
General Election May 1 1997 CON 31%: LAB 44%: LD 17% (LAB +13)
Net difference in the LAB-CON margin: minus 6%June 1999 - ICM poll CON 29%: LAB 46%: LD 19% (LAB +17)
General Election June 7 2001 CON 33%: LAB 42%: LD 19% (LAB +9)
Net difference in the LAB-CON margin: minus 8%May 2003 - ICM poll CON 29%: LAB 42%: LD 21% (LAB +13)
General Election May 5 2005 CON 33%: LAB 36%: LD 23% (LAB +3)
Net difference in the LAB-CON margin: minus 10%May 2008 - ICM poll CON 41%: LAB 27%: LD 22% (LAB -14)
General Election May 2010??? CON ??%: LAB ??%: LD ??% (??)
Net difference in the LAB-CON margin: Who knows?
So whether in government or opposition the record shows that Labour’s polling position in relation to the Conservative deteriorates markedly from two years out and what happens on election day. If this is repeated again then my suggestion that we could see a Tory landslide in 2010 might not be wide of the mark.
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Bah Humbug! You’ve done your usual sneaky trick of starting a new thread just after I’ve posted. Just in case it got missed:
2. “The next PB event will be on Thursday 19th April - more details to follow.”
Only 10 months to go!
Actually it’s 3 years and 10 months to go. April 19th won’t be on a Thursday until 2012.
Questions:
1. When did it become standard practice for Republican to be red and Democrat to be blue (i.e. the “wrong” way round)? I seem to remember that it was only a few elections ago that the practice varied a lot between different broadcasters, and that both methods were used almost randomly. Has the general convention on this changed or evolved, or is my memory just wrong?
2. Why do people so often write “GOP” as an abbreviation for “Republican”? I don’t think I’ve noticed it so much before. I know it stands for “Grand Old party” or “God’s Own Party” but why don’t people just write “Rep” or “R”? Is this another thing where convention has changed?
(Back on topic)
The sample size of number of parliaments in the survey is too small. Each parliament and each General Election has its own dialectic dynamic circumstances events unforeseen unexpected a week is a long time in politics world events globalised economy oil crisis by-election momentum cliche new paradigm Scotland the EU single-issue parties Clegg coalition tactical voting depression upheaval.
Are there any betting odds on the number of seats in the next general election for the small parties? e.g. BNP 0 or 1 or 2 or more; Green 0 or 1 or 2; Independents (like in South Wales) 2 or 3 or 5 or 37? Respect 1 or 2?
If no change to Labour, then a Cameron landslide likely.
But if Labour implodes and reinvents itself, instead going eurosceptic, democratic, localist, lowering taxes and apologising for the mistakes made under Blair and Brown, Cameron might be in for a surprise. There is enough time for this to happen, and the motivation is there from Labour MPs who want to survive.
4. Er …. basically change the party’s entire philosophy (again)? I know New Labour MPs can be “pragmatic” but surely there is a limit even for their opportunism?!
Mike I seemed to remember this theory of “Tory mid-term recovery” rather than “Government mid-term recovery” being put before, but some weeks later being pooh-poohed by all and sundry?
re 5. Yes it is controversial but I’ve not seen hard evidence that refutes it.
The problems is that people’s views have been conditioned by the massive overstatement of Labour in the polls which went on for decades. Labour have had fantastic leads which have then evaporated. My argument then and now is that these were never real.
Tory polling figures, as I argue here and risk huge amount of money on, are more robust.
Remember the golden polling rule -
The most accurate poll at any one time is the one that shows Labour in the least favourable position. Just check every single London mayoral race, every general election after 1987, and even Crewe and Nantwich and the rule always applies.
Well I am certainly not refuting it! Looking forward to 2010.
Incidentally Mike, do your records show how many people are accessing your site now from abroad - particularly from the Far East such as myself? At the back of my mind I am once again pondering the feasibility of a PB.com party over here …
We can get country break-downs and now just 71% of our traffic is from the UK. I’m on holiday at the moment and I don’t have the specifics.
(O/T)
Quick response to question about bias in Irish polls at 198/199/200
on the previous thread.
Opinion moves around a lot in referenda campaigns here, so polls as always, give a shapshot of opinion. Polling of GEs is not too bad here.
I think that the “snapshot” argument is likely to explain what happened both in the 2001 Nice referendum, and the upswing in the no share this time.
Indeed, before the campaign for the current referendum was officially announced, there were gigantic “yes” leads of 20-30-35 points. Once the electorate started to consider in more depth what
the pros and cons are, opinion has shifted. It’s not surprising that the “no” share has increased; the “yes” election literature and campaign are pretty disjointed and insipid.
One could dispute the veracity of some of the propositions offered by the “no” side, but at least they are tangible; the “yes” side have not really managed to make a positive case for voting “yes” (although now they are making a stronger case as to why voting “no” might be a bad idea). The other reason to believe that “no” will do better than in say Nice 2 is that the “no” campaign is less dominated by the extremes; the people from Libertas are a little less boggle-eyed than some of the traditional campaigners against closer European integration.
I speak as a somone who has voted “no” since I was eligible to do so (since Maastricht) on grounds of economic flexibility and a tendency to prefer things to be decentralised.
JohnLoony (1):
Have answered your first question at the end of the last thread:
“Prior to the 2000 presidential election, there was no universally recognized color scheme to represent political parties in the United States. The practice of using colors to represent parties on electoral maps dates back at least as far as the 1950s, when such a format was employed within the Hammond series of historical atlases. Color-based schemes became more widespread with the adoption of color television in the 1960s and nearly ubiquitous with the advent of color in newspapers. A three-color scheme — red, white and blue, the colors of the U.S. flag — makes sense, and the third color, white, is useful in depicting maps showing states that are ‘undecided’ in the polls and in election-night television coverage.
Early on, the most common—though again, not universal—color scheme was to use red for Democrats and blue for Republicans. This was the color scheme employed by NBC—David Brinkley famously referred to the 1980 map showing Reagan’s 44-state landslide as a ’sea of blue’, but this color scheme was also employed by most news magazines. CBS from 1984-1996, however, used the opposite scheme—blue for Democrats, red for Republicans. ABC was less consistent than its elder network brothers; in at least two presidential elections during this time before the emergence of cable news outlets, ABC used yellow for one major party and blue for the other. In 1984, ABC used red=Republican and blue=Democrat. As late as 1996, there was still no universal association of one color with one party. If anything, by 1996, color schemes were relatively mixed, as CNN, CBS, and the New York Times referred to Democratic states with the color blue and Republican ones as red, while Time Magazine and the Washington Post used an opposite scheme.
But in 2000, for the first time, all major electronic media outlets used the same colors for each party, most likely as a result of the official colors for the presidential candidates, with Gore’s campaign using blue lawn signs and imagery and Bush’s using red. Partly as a result of this near-universal color-coding, the terms Red States and Blue States entered popular usage in the weeks following the 2000 presidential election. Additionally, the closeness of the disputed election kept the colored maps in the public view for longer than usual. Journalists began to routinely refer to ‘blue states’ and ‘red states,’ even before the 2000 election was settled. After the results were final, journalists stuck with the color scheme, such as The Atlantic’s cover story by David Brooks in the December 2001 issue entitled, ‘One Nation, Slightly Divisible.’ Thus red and blue became fixed in the media and in many people’s minds despite the fact that no ‘official’ color choices had been made by the parties.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states
DublinWatcher (9):
the people from Libertas are a little less boggle-eyed than some of the traditional campaigners against closer European integration
Would these be the same people from Libertas who were claiming earlier in the campaign that Lisbon would allow the EU to detain our three-year old children, and whose leader (owner, really) was on the lunchtime news yesterday claiming that voting for Lisbon would allow the EU to introduce the death penalty?
Having said that, at least he hasn’t yet been discovered to have been a regular attender at neo-Nazi rallies like Justin Barrett (most prominent anti-treaty spokesman during the Nice II campaign), so your point may still stand.
And I say that as someone who is a very reluctant Yes voter, having voted No to every treaty up to Nice II.
9
Many thanks.
You might enjoy that one:
“Another EU official put the situation bluntly: “If there is a ‘no’ vote on Thursday then it’s back to the drawing-board.”"
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gaKyW6Z7nbTsDr_3SdpNUQWN43CA
11
Since you’re so “reluctant” why not vote NO then?
There is not a crumb of comfort in this analysis for Labour.
Even if the closet tory vote has reduced the implication would be that Cameron has been successful with his decontamination of the brand, it’s lose/lose for Labour.
Regarding a replacement for Brown. A leadership challenge needs to be justified by concrete proposals and a change of direction, not just personality. The paucity of ideas from any potential contender makes a challenge increasingly unlikely. So any leadership change would have to be the result of Brown’s self awareness, humility and generosity of spirit.
7. SawadeeKAP from sunny Bangkok. I for one would love to see a pb.com (Far Eastern Branch) Summer Party. I know a delighftul little bar just off soi cowboy. The coyote girls could serve bellinis.
In fact why don’t we shift the whole shebang over here? It would be a pleasure to see Witan, Yokel, Nick Palmer et al getting their rocks off with Pang from Isaan and her lovely friends, while Test, Tyson and Roger watch the notorious “motorbike” show.
The Lib Dems would obviously hang out with the ladyboys.
Alan Johnson calling opponents of super-surgeries Nazis shows how hard it will be for Labour to recover.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article4093375.ece
Even if polyclinics and super-surgeries will extend patients’ lives by a decade, the short-term political stupidity of making people travel further to see the quack should not be underestimated. And this man is tipped as a replacement for Brown!
12 — the EU official means “back to the drawing board” for a new referendum till the Irish give the right answer.
Like last time.
15 — Hey lucky dandy T,
Are the Thais complaining about oil price? In your perception, is the inflation very high, or just normal?
“Oil has doubled in a year and risen 44 percent since January, forcing developing countries such as Indonesia and India into unpopular fuel prices rises while richer nations ponder how to soften the blow of soaring energy costs for the vulnerable.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080609/ts_nm/g8_energy_dc
Mike , With the greatest respect you have selected poll data which “proves” your theory when there is data in the same series of polls that does not . Why choose May 2003 and not July 2003 ot June 1999 rather than May 2000 for example . My own theory is that all governments improve their position with the relation to the opposition compared to midterm poll , byelection results and local election results and there is a wealth of data going back 50 years to show that this is true for both Labour and Conservative governments .
In some cases the recovery is enough to win the next GE in other cases it isn’t but in all cases the recovery is there .
From the previous thread - Nick p, Garnier was talking about the little chip that all new passports now contain. Not adding fingerprints, iris scans, dna prints etc to our passports.
The feature that has confused Gabble into arguing that ‘biometric passports are already in use’.
There are still people around willing to bet real money that Labour and not the Conservatives will have a majority next time.
Labour’s current woes: consumer confidence index is down from 91 to 79 since Gordon took over. Labour’s fortunes will only start ticking up when that number does. Got to be a chance that in a year’s time it will be in the sixties - or lower. Clearly the £2.7 billion giveaway - sorry, “assistance to hard-pressed voters” - dished up by Alas Darling hasn’t done the trick…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7442650.stm
21 — Clean ‘em then!
19 - Your contention is that governments recover from mid-term. In a four-year Parliament then mid term is 2 years betwixt and between elections. There is an argument in terms of Mike choosing points 2 and a half years before elections in the Parliaments likely to go to 5 years but I think picking a point two years from an election is a reasonable benchmark. On that basis from Mike’s information above then Labour are not as far ahead or further behind at the election than they were 2 years out. We are now likely two years out from the next election, so the omens are not propitious. Of course this Parliament they could buck the trend that Mike picks up and therein lies the calculation for betting purposes. To do as you seem to want and pick the polling point that justifies your theory rather than picking similar points in time and seeing if there is a pattern that develops is a little odd.
21 There? : http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=4772641&ex=1&origin=MRL
Maybe they’re just buying now with the hope of selling higher…
12. I love Andrew Duff’s remark from that article:
“It would be a catastrophe if the “nos” win. There’s an awful feeling of deja vu. When there is popular consultation you get populism, nationalism, xenopohobia, all sorts of lies,” he complained.”
“When there is popular consultation… you get all sorts of lies”??
So, what should we do then Andrew, get rid of these nasty “popular consultations”? Why do we have these risky referenda and ludicrous elections anyway? Eh? They all run the risk of ordinary people having their stupid say, the xenophobes.
I know, let’s in future not have referendums and elections at all, and if we do have them, let’s ignore the result, or make people vote again until they get it right.
Whoops, that’s the plan already, isn’t it? So what are you worried about, you ludicrous slug?
BTW Isn’t this the same revolting Andrew Duff who desperately yearned for the “defeat of the English”? i.e. his own people? Why is this human gargoyle still leader of the European Lib Dems?
How can you have a leader who actively wants the defeat of his own country, his own people?
Come on Lib Dems, start fumigating. Cleanse the stables. Bleach the khazi. Flush this noisome gobbet of traitorous effluent, AKA Andrew Duff, into the sewers of political history.
20 (con) - btw Congratulations to Gabble on one of the finest arguments put against ID cards on this site ie.
Biometric passports already exist. They represent a national Identity database. Ergo there is no need for the Govt to persist with the duplication of the ID card scheme.
“Easterross asked on the last thread: “By the way has anyone been in Henley this weekend and how are things looking so far?”
Cant see any response. Am afraid I haven’t managed to get there yet, hope to go this week.
Questions include: Are the Labour party doing anything in Henley? (their web site would suggest not!). The Conservative candidate is called “a businessman” what does that mean?
re 19. My choice of dates was determined entirely by what ICM in the Guardian was reporting precisely two years before the relevant general elections. It works almost exactly the same if you average in the polls on either side.
You have been highly selective while I have followed a formula. July 2003, for instance, was just after the David Kelly death in the woods.
26 - The Europhiles don’t get it. For years they’ve been operating a ’salami strategy’ on the EU whereby each new treaty on close reading makes little actual changes from the one that has gone before. Opponents raise all sorts of objections to the text and the Europhiles cry
“Ignoramuses!!! Go and read the last treaty (sub-section 584 paragraph 27 of the small text) which shows that this provision already exists“.
Then they risk a vote and find that the voters actually object to something that was provided for by a treaty 12 years ago but never had their say on it because nobody noticed it then. And they throw up their hands in despair and complain that the voters don’t know what they are voting for, and that their vote on this specific treaty won’t actually change what they want.
Its difficult to see what Labour can do to change the storyline - Gordon Brown’s reported comments that he will not reshuffle Cabinet until election doesn’t give much hope of a new agenda or a re-vitalised Government. The hope seems to be that the Conservatives implode; hoping that Europe, Grammar Schools, Tax cuts/spending cuts will split the Conservatives between Cameron modernisers and the “Core”.
The MEP expenses scandal could do damage though I noticed a sentence in the Daily Telegraph which could limit that - “At least five Tory MEPs have already been implicated in the expenses scandal, which is expected to spread to Labour and the Liberal Democrats this week”.
I have a feeling there is something orchestrated about the MEP expenses stuff, with new stories being drip fed a day at a time. Expect that it will soon be all parties MEPs under the spotlight.
16, stupid thing to say. My opinion of Johnson has dropped somewhat.
The important thing for Cameron is not to believe this is inevitably going to become a Tory landslide or even outright victory. Ironically, that’s what the Labour party should refuse to believe as well.
For the Conservatives this means not taking their foot off the accelerator and keep hammering the government, for Brown it means stopping the constant scrabble for a good headline and a way to wrongfoot the Tories.
29 - actually the most logical point to use would be the equivalent point in the parliament, not the equivalent distance before an actual general election.
31 - yep I haven’t seen too many critical quotes from Lab/Lib MEPs in the news.
I think Gordon said that in the hope that ministers will remain on the gravy train rather than plot to oust him.
16/31 - Come off it be slightly fair - Alan Johnson clearly did not call opponents of polyclinics “Nazis”. He didn’t even say something that could be misinterpreted as that.
What he did say was that opponents of polyclinics were equivalent to people who put nonsensical arguments against the NHS. A silly argument, but not quite the same.
Alex - simplifies the decision for the PM. He should choose the date of the next election by selecting a date two years from the best poll so far.
Phillipe- I Laid 5.7 yesterday and will continue to do similar until the cows come home.
Surely the word ‘cow’ will get through the spam filter.
37 - Hmm - think there could be a logical fallacy in there somewhere…
In addition using one poll from one pollster is nonsense. You should use the average polls over a 3-6 month period at least.
Gov. Brian Schweitzer
Wants to put some troops withdrawn from Irak into Koweit.
He has a plan for energy independancy.
He’s lived 7 years in Saudi Arabia and speaks Arabic.
This guy is really amazing.
And fast. Eloquent. Healthy. Young.
Pro-gun.
Libertarian.
Governor of Montana.
And a Democrat!!!
Here is a very good interview of him by Charlie Rose: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0i9o-ThOPM&feature=related
I actually have 27% at 69/1 on him begin the Next VP.
And I put an ‘ask’ of 22 at 70.
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20790558&ex=1&origin=MRL
I put 250$ at
GMB Union leader says on radio 4 “we are not going to use our memebers money to repay loans to wealthy businessmen who thought they might get a knighthood, thats a non-runner” This is ahead of the vote today that may see the GMB cut its ties with the Labour Party
26
I realised a few months ago the main radical difference between the Left and the Right.
I don’t know if it’s only valid in the actual or if it’s meta-historic:
–>lefties prefer the state to be ran by experts, whereas righties put their trust in the ‘wisdom of crowds’, in the people.
Lefties don’t trust the people; for they are, and prefer, bureaucrats.
Righties dislike bureaucrats, and would vastly prefer to be governed by a random set of regular folks than by a random set of academics and journalists.
Mike - a Tory majority of 100+ requires them to take some seriously implausible seats. To achieve it they would have to pretty much gain everything on their London/Midlands/Lancs wish list and slice through the LibDems in the South/Southwest. Much as I think Labour is in very serious decline, my bet would be that it will take Cameron two elections to get a three figure majority. Hopefully they will give you decent odds.
Ted - 31 - “I have a feeling there is something orchestrated about the MEP expenses stuff, with new stories being drip fed a day at a time.”
Probably with the “shock horror” story taking the headlines on Thursday, just in time to encourage the Irish ‘NO’ voters to express their disgust at venal MEPs of all parties.
42 Not sure I agree. I’m more than happy to be ruled by boffins in white coats with a row of biros in their top pockets who know how things work (and more importantly, why proposals won’t). The same for captains of industry, military bods, head teachers, doctors, nurses, dentists, surgeons - those with experience of just how crap the dictats of government by “targets” can be.
Where I do agree is that any journalist who comes within a mile of a lever of power should be shot on sight.
Mr Smithson, I find this theory interesting. Why I am yet to be completely persuaded is that I cannot identify the reason why polls have swung to the Tories in the run up to a general election in the past. In order for a rule of thumb to have useful predictive power, it greatly helps to know what is powering it and when exceptions might arise.
If there were to be a substantial swing from Labour to Conservative in the next two years, it would need to be made up of a further drop in Labour support and a substantial drop in Lib Dem support (unless you believe that the core Labour vote could go well below 25%). I have often expressed my scepticism about the Lib Dems and their strategy, but in circumstances where the Labour vote is low and dropping, it is hard to see why the Lib Dem vote should also take a big hit. The only occasions in your table when both the Labour and the Lib Dem vote dropped were 1987 and 1997, both of which were occasions when the Tories were two years previously doing badly. We are now in the opposite position that the Tories are doing well. That is the first time that the Tories have been in this position mid term in 30 years. Different rules might very well apply.
If I could see reasons why this was an iron rule rather than a coincidental feature of polls of the last 20 years, I’d buy it. But I can’t - not yet.
43 If Conservatives are notionally on about 210 after boundary changes, then to get a majority of 100, they’d to win 165 seats, to get to 375. What’s target seat #165 on the ukpollingreport
website? Crewe and Nantwich…
Perhaps it is possible.
We now have two sets of examples which both show that it is unlikely that Labour can recover from this point two years away from the next GE and that from Mike’s figures, Labour always ends up in a worse situation than 2 years earlier.
One thing I did note from Mike’s figures is that the scale of the increase in Labour’s gap has in recent years grown smaller. That maybe because of the effects of the smaller parties such as the LDs and SNP which are more significant today.
Mid-term blues just does not apply to Labour, it is more of a mid-term high.
46 antifrank, it could of course be that the telephone polls have always under reported the Conservatives and always over reported Labour.
London 2008 with Yougov Vs The Rest was a classic example.
47 Sanndwiched between Dagenham and Rainham on one side and Gower on the other….mmmmmmmm! I still think that the “Dunwoody” factor (one of whom was exceptionally good and one of whom was exceptionally bad at reading the electorate) coming together with the 10p moment make extrapolation from that result perilous.
49 - I accept that is possible, but Mr Smithson is arguing for something else: not just that the ICM polls under-record the Tories (which they may), but that we can expect a swing in the polls back towards the Tories as well in the next two years.
11. astroturf o’lert
48 “Mid-term blues just does not apply to Labour, it is more of a mid-term high.
Labour still has two years of Government ahead of it in which to play with a marked deck. So they SHOULD claw back some. However, where the Tories were generally wily enough to keep something back for tax cuts just ahead of the general election, it looks as though Gordon has already raided the piggy bank - and the polls have just got worse since their naked opportunism in spending £2.7 billion to try and win a by-election has been seen by the voters as just that.
With consumer confidence falling so drastically (see 22 above) there is a risk for Labour that it gets writen off and the people invest all their hopes for getting out of their personal economic hole through electing “that Cameron bloke - he talks some sense about where it has gone wrong….”
Donegal islanders to vote on Lisbon Treaty today
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/breaking-news/ireland/politics/article3782918.ece
29 Mike , I have not been highly selective in the sample figures I picked out , I could have chosen many others , there is nothing magical about mid term or 24 months prior to the next GE , at some time in a parliament a government will be at it’s most unpopular that may or may nor coincide with being 24 months before the next GE .
If the next election were actually to be May/June 2009 , will you instead use the figures from May/June 2007 instead of 2008 of course not because they would not tell the story that you want .
I repeat that you can go back to the late 1950’s , all governments Labour and Conservative recover to some extent from their low points in terms of opinion polls , byelection performance and local election results , in some cases they recover sufficiently to win the next GE in others they recover somewhat but still lose but recover to some extent they always do . In 1979 Labour recovered sufficiently to win back 4 of the 5 seats the Conservatives had gained from them in parliamentary byelections , in 1970 they recovered sufficiently to win back 6 out of 12 .
I do not disagree that the next GE looks lost for Labour but history says that they will not poll as badly at the next GE as the polls etc currently indicate .
@42:
That’s more the definition of a technocrat vs. a demarchist.
This reminds me of the IQ question “What does a cow and a Robin have in common?” (They both have four legs except for the Robin that has two…?)
So looking at your example of 1990 I would say that a government mid term can afford to be -24% and still be returned with a healthy majority!
Minor correction: The net difference in the margin for 1990 to 1992 should be minus 32, not minus 16.
31. Interesting that the scandal over Euro MPs allowances is reported to encompass Labour and Libdems as well as the Tories. Even if there is no actual wrong-doing the rules seem to be lax and practices are regarded as normal which MPs find embarrassing to explain to the general public. Could this have a knock-on effect for Euro MPs who subsequently make a career in the Westminster Parliament? Huhne and Clegg are obvious examples. I hope their expenses pass scrutiny as Libdem activists have always seemed to me to be a puritanical, moralistic group. However, if they turn out to be whiter than white this will enable them to stand out as beacons of probity.
1 - the GOP is the “gallent old party” - the Republicans’ nickname for themselves
I thought it was the Grand Old Party.
61- nope
55 - of course you are right. However do you acknowledge that part of the reason why one could expect a Govt improvement from its low points is that the Govt can choose the date of the election to coincide with that improvement? As a result, the longer a Govts (are forced to?) leave it, the more they are leaving their “recovery” to chance.
I also argue that the modern inclusion by most pollsters of don’t knows in polls and the use of past vote weighting, is likely to reduce the scale of recoveries compared to polls in the sixties and seventies.
Supporters of Alan Johnson, (and Labour, and the Tories) might look at:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-a-nasty-case-of-utopian-dogma-842434.html
62 - well a cursory glance of google suggests that Grand Old Party wasn’t the original meaning, but it is the accepted one now!
63 (con) ie. because including don’t knows in the polls is already factoring in some of the recovery that would have come in the past.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1264572.ece
This is the Sun report on the seven deadly sins. The story that has had least attention so far is the Alan Duncan donations issues. I wonder if this is the one that will finally emerge as most significant though. It may reopen the Grant Shapps government-by-estateagents-for-estate agents issue, for example. There have been a number of comments around that party funding is still the big issue.
The Spelman stories in particular seem to have been generated by people within the Conservative party (there is a reference in one Times piece to a gleeful Tory PPC saying “she’s got to go”), and one wonders who outside the Conservatives would have the information to tell the story.
One person who would have a lot of information on such stories would - of course - be Derek Conway. This does not seem to have his fingerpirnts on it, but I bet he is a popular figure with journalists these days.
16 & 32
Based on reports in yesterday’s Sunday Times the Nazi label would be more appropriate for Alan Johnson.
Elderly cancer patients whose local NHS hospital don’t have the latest life saving drugs,buy them from their savings,and for their pains find that they are banned from any further treatment by the NHS for their condition.
62 - Odd, according to Wikipedia (always such a reliable source) “The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States of America, along with the Democratic Party. It is often referred to as the Grand Old Party or the GOP.”
“Now seven Tories face sleaze probe”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1264572.ece
Conservatives should give the impression of being “whiter than white”
This is an absolutely nonsense argument. The press may love it because of all the “stories” it gives them, but the last thing any political party should do is try to give this impression. It is what caused Tony Blair all his problems. It is an unachievable fantasy in a world where MPs decide their own pay, and set their own rules on expenses, which then contain so many grey areas (both with the rules themselves, and the wider public’s perception of what is acceptable practice).
If every practice with a dubious interpretation were a sackable offence then the really serious corruption and misdemeanours have a far better chance of slipping through the net. Why is any press organisation going to spend the time and resources exposing real fraud and corruption, when they can simply take out the register of members interests and secure a sacking within a week?
60/61 - Paul is right originally G for Gallant (a reference to the Civil War) but they have used Grand instead for well over a century now as Alex suggests.
64
Yes, that nasty,vindictive,Nazi Alan Johnson.
Re GOP, a bit like SOC is short for the Labour Party in the UK. A usage lost in the mists of time!
OT. Big Brown’s failed quest.
Big Brown started off as prohibitive favourite but dropped out tamely and was virtually pulled up behind the 38-1 winner. Sounds familiar?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/racing/article4092083.ece
Separately any value in the Betfair market for the terror bill on the back of this?
Gordon Brown set to lose on 42-day detention
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4092935.ece
63 alex , yes of course the governments power to be able to choose the election date is part of the reasons why the recover in midterm . It could also be argued that by choosing wrongly as in a 1979 election versus a late 1978 election they can make things worse .
The main reason though that governments recover from mid term low points is that by definition they are low points and the from the bottom of a trough there is only one direction , the uncertainty is how much upwards the movement is .
75 — good!
Surprise surprise, BBC News failing to report that some senior police officers have come out against 42 days.
Back on topic, the data quoted by Mike also support an alternative theory which seems to me more plausible: the party that’s behind in mid-term always does better by the time of an election.
Unlike the ‘Tories always do better’ theory, this has a plausible logic. Parties fall behind because of scandals, splits and policy wobbles, the media pile in, and regular supporters with no immediate election to hand think, “Cor! Do I want to vote for this lot?”
At a GE, however, the media maintain something vaguely resembling balance, the flaws of both sides become apparent, and habit reasserts itself - to a greater or lesser extent. Of course it’s not inevitable, and it certainly doesn’t mean that the party that’s behind will win, but it’s a natural process for the gap to narrow.
Kas, want a bet on whether the GMB will disaffiliate today? The Broxtowe cats offer you 10-1 against in tenners.
76 - “The main reason though that governments recover from mid term low points is that by definition they are low points”
But how do you know they are low points at the time, Mark? Your logic is after-the-fact. Have Labour reached their 2005-2010 mid-term low point yet? Will they ever?
76 I think you slightly overstate your case there, Mark. The rider to both Mike and your predictions is that past performance is no guide to the future. One of the factors in the recovery of governments in the past was that they timed the economic cycle to coincide with the electoral cycle. This will be a tough challenge for Labour now (and the independence of the BofE makes it tougher than it used to be). But there is certainly scope for Labour to weaken.
The Conservative’s weakness is that they don’t seem to stand for anything in particular at present.
Gordon Brown on our 100th member of the Armed Forces to die in Afghanistan,
“They have paid the ultimate price.”
Yes they have Prime Minister but you forgot to add,
“At the least possible cost.”
77
Its an intersting game the BBC are playing. If they carry on as they are, they risk serious changes being forced upon them.( ie bye by licence and hello subscribe.)
39
Mike, I have looked at the ICM series several times.Using one monthly poll is not representative.
The clsoest indicator is the calendar year average preceding the election.ie for May 2010 the average of 2009 ICM polls.
This gave a pretty close fit to the actual party shares in the 1997,2001 and 2005 elections.
eg1997 av polls 1996 CON 30.5,Lab 47,Lib 18.2Actual vote shares 31.4,44.4,17.2.The Labour vote was overstated by the polls but Tory and Lib within 1%
Of course in all these cases it was the Tories who were languishing and not Labour.
76 - Except you make an assumption that a trough in popularity will be in “mid-term”. This is likely but not automatic. It is likely because
i) mid term can stretch for any period from the second year to the fourth, so on simple probability it is likely
ii) In the past Govts only really concentrated on tailoring their political platform towards electoral success as the election approached (note this is a MAJOR change since 1997) - so controversial and unpopular policies implemented early in parliaments
iii) in midterm electors are expressing a judgement on their view of the Govt’s record - as elections approach they are more likely to be weighing up the merits of the Govt vs the Opposition.
But
i) even long shots come in
ii) Labour has changed the traditional ways that Govt’s operate
iii) Who knows, people really might like what the Conservatives are offering?
re 77 it got a good mention on the Today programme.
80/84 -
iv) and that
Nobody mentioned the horrific inflation numbers yet? The markets are forecasting UK money market rates at 6.25% by next March - that would be pretty terminal for the government and for that matter the economy I would guess.
74. I thought Labour used to be known (when it was a left-wing party) by the acronym TGMOO?
On the contrary alex , I do not assume the trough in popularity is mid term , in the last parliament IMO the trough was in early 2004 and in the 1997-2001 parliament around the time of the local elections in 2000 . There is an argument put forward by some that the levels of unpopularity seen by the government now are not the trough which will come next year time will tell but whenever and at what level the trough is , there will be a recovery from it by the next GE .
** Long post alert **
46, 78. I think there are plausible reasons why the Tories recovered in most of the cases listed above:
1990-2 - Major “bounce”. (NB that the swingback was actually 32%, and not 16% as stated in the article.)
1995-7 - improving economy.
1999-2001 - fuel crisis plus Hague’s core vote strategy lifted the Tories from 29% to 33%.
2003-5 - Howard replaced IDS, and the developing situation in Iraq cut several points off the Labour vote.
I think that the Tory share of the vote in 1997, 2001 and 2005 was probably strengthened further by low turnout in safe Labour seats. This fits (I think) with Nick Palmer’s argument for an intrinsic narrowing of the parties’ positions at election time.
1985-7 is harder to explain, but it looks like the Tories mainly won voters back from the Alliance as the latter split over defence, and by raising the spectre of the Alliance supporting a Labour government.
The evidence above suggests that swingback depends on the conduct of the weaker party AND of the government, which may or may not be the same. In particular we may identify
(1) Changes of leadership - which may bring about a bounce (1992, 2005) or may not. These tend to be easier for the Tories, and easier for the opposition to bring about than for the government; but the potential rewards of a change of leader are probably greatest in government.
(2) Economic factors - Traditionally the “Macmillan cycle” underpinned the swingback to the government as the election was held to coincide with a boom; now I doubt whether a government could engineer a feel-good factor (and gain credit for it) even if it wanted to.
(3) “Events” - fuel, Europe, strikes and so on. Likely to harm rather than help the incumbent party.
(4) Political strategy - I remain convinced that Labour could get itself into hung parliament territory if it focussed its energies on this limited aim.
Swingback surely depends on the interplay of these factors. I think it’s easier for the party that is trailing to close the gap when it’s out of government, and that the Tories have historically been better at turning their situation round than Labour. But that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a Labour recovery.
42. Hasn’t the left historically supported expanding the franchise, while the right has gone back and forth on the idea?
Looking for a simple explanation for these polling figures is fraught with danger over such a small data set.
The numbers could easily be explained by a two-pronged explanation combining two cliches
* the government always recovers from mid-term blues
and
* voters will turn out for the underdog in surprising numbers
which may also turn out to be totally wrong.
89 - both of those are mid-term. If you read my post you see i defined “mid-term” to be anywhere from the end of the first year of the parliament (for symmetry) to the end of the fourth year.
92 - quite, i think every person on here should have to prove that they have been on a basic statistics course before commenting. All that the claimed “polling laws” show is that “there are no proven laws”.
Things are slightly different in eg. America where they have large elections for Government positions all the time, although even there “laws” have been shown to be rubbish (I remember the “don’t knows swing 2:1 against the incumbent” one in 2004.
91. Don’t worry Socrates, he’s just trying to claim the moral high ground for his brand of authoritarian populism.
When did the Thatcher government ever trust the people?
The right has become wedded, for better or worse, to a damaging vision of plebiscitary democracy, which it believes can be equated with “trusting the people”.
Liberals have never had blind faith in bureaucrats (except perhaps for a brief period in the 1940s); and of course there is a strong strand of anti-statism running through the British Labour tradition, exemplified most strongly by GDH Cole and his guild socialist colleagues. Assimilating the whole of “the left” to the centralist Fabian tradition is neither historically accurate nor fair.
91 - to be fair that’s not quite the same thing is it?
It’s like the Tories in 1997 arguing against a Scottish “Devolution for Scotland” referendum, but in favour of a UK “Devolution for Scotland” referendum.
Everyone wants an electoral system that favours them…
Oh i see what you mean
91 In this day and age, they have, to a considerable extent reversed their historic positions. Distrust for the voters is more likely now to be found on the centre left than the centre right.
With the exception of 1985, you could also argue that the parties get closer together at the GE.
97. i.e. it is easy to say “trust the people” when in opposition, but no government would want to actually do it
Good piece of work Mike. So it is not governments that recover on election day, but the Conservative party. That does not bode well for Labour.
87 But that is only about 0.4% above where LIBOR is now - not good, but hardly terminal for a government.
101. Well ‘just for a bit of fun’ let’s assume the LIBOR spreads don’t change and the markets are right about UK rates - that means LIBOR around 7%, and mortgage rates probably above 8%. That would be very painful indeed for people who bought their houses when mortgage rates were 4-5%…
whohahahahaha
99 There’s an element of that, but in general, centre-left politicians are generally the most keen on using the Courts and international institutions to put a brake on the ability of people to govern themselves.
**** PB EXCLUSIVE **** PB EXCLUSIVE **** PB EXCLUSIVE **** PB EXCLUSIVE
**** FIRST ARSE (BUTT) PRESIDENTIAL POLL AND PREDICTOR RELEASED - 11.15am ****
102 lol lol reports of the Tories “Nasty Party” label’s demise seem to be well and truly exaggerated.
Philippe Magnan (13):
Since you’re so “reluctant” why not vote NO then?
On the one hand, I don’t like the “over their heads” approach being taken by most governments with the treaty - the reluctance to hold referendums - and the EU seems to be able to function well enough without the treaty being in place.
On the other, the majority of the “No” campaign here seems to be focussing either on issues that either will not be affected either way by the treaty (the WTO trade talks, corporation tax, neutrality) or on paranoia and deliberate lies (euthanasia, prostitution, the detention of 3-year-old children, the death penalty).
Given the choice between supporting a treaty which I don’t think is particularly necessary but which makes very little difference to the powers of the EU or to our daily lives or giving credibility to assorted crazies and (American) Republican catspaws, I’ll go unenthusiastically with a “Yes”.
I’d prefer to see a close result on either side rather than a landslide though.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 46% .. Obama 52% .. Others 2%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 140 .. Obama 237 .. Toss Up 161
Eliminate Toss Up - 270 Required for Electoral College Majority.
McCain 182 .. Obama 356
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …. British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC .. Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
99/103 - Parties in Govt will always claim that their presence in Govt gives them a popular mandate to do what they want. Why would they want a referendum to confirm what they were going to do anyway?
They are generally only used to get round potential party splits.
O/T Alan Shearer is now installed as the 9/4 favourite for the Blackburn Rovers job. Perhaps the somewhat surprising comment by their Chairman last week that “We’re not in any hurry to make an appointment” was in fact code for “Actually we’ve already got our man and we’ll announce him after his punditry for the BBC during Euro 2008″
A big, big risk for them though - very few players, no matter how good they may have been, really make it as football club managers.
Those in favour of referendums will also generally be those who don’t have the parliamentary support for their positions.
The GOP says this about itself:
http://www.gop.com/About/AboutRead.aspx?Guid=a747a888-0ae6-4441-94f4-2a3a6561f872
The us of symbols is reducing,too, now there is greater literacy and colour TV and colour ( sorry color) printing.
Were any symbols ever attached to modern British parties.
110 Doubtless. My comment is directed more at the trend towards reducing the powers of accountable institutions (national legislatures) and increasing the powers of unaccountable ones (courts, and international organisations).
107 JackW - Very interesting and considerably better for Obama than the betting markets are currently suggesting.
After eliminating toss-ups, how do your figures break down in terms of States won please, excl DC?
113 PfP. It’s the SOAMES BIG MAC weighting that wins it !!
I have 14 toss up states +/- 5%. Obama nets 11 and McCain 3 :
Obama - Nevada .. New Mexico .. Missouri .. Wisconsin .. Indiana .. Ohio .. Michigan .. New Hampshire .. Virginia .. North Carolina .. South Carolina.
McCain - Florida .. Mississipi .. Louisiana.
Note - A number of Obama states tip right on the edge - Nevada, Indiana and South Carolina.
110: “Those in favour of referendums will also generally be those who don’t have the parliamentary support for their positions.”
And many of those people will be voters (who, surprisingly enough, outnumber politicians) .
95. Jack Peterson.
“The right has become wedded, for better or worse, to a damaging vision of plebiscitary democracy, which it believes can be equated with “trusting the people”.”
You could have save yourself a few seconds, and preserved the truth of your remarks, by leaving out several words. To wit:
“The right has become wedded, for better or worse, to democracy”.
Back on topic, Labour have not necessarily hit their low point in this Parliament (although they must surely be close). It’s hard to envisage them polling less than, say, 30% at an election.
114 I’d expect McCain to take most of the toss up states you mention.
Jack W - £25 says Obama doesn’t win Indiana or South Carolina.
118 DC. Quite brave. Last polls Indiana a tie and SC M+3%.
However on principle I don’t punt with PBers. Now on betfair !!
Have you seen the state intrade markets ??
90.”(2) Economic factors - Traditionally the “Macmillan cycle” underpinned the swingback to the government as the election was held to coincide with a boom; now I doubt whether a government could engineer a feel-good factor (and gain credit for it) even if it wanted to.
Increased easy credit between 2001-2005?
Didn’t we avert an economic downturn during that period when others did not?
End of boom and bust, prudence and stability, golden rules etc etc.
117 Sean F. Which ones ??
Nick P . Sorry for delay in post but i was merely reporting what the bloke said. I couldnt care less (and certainly have no info) on the chances of the GMB cutting their ties.
All the bloke said was he wasnt going to use his union money to pay off the corrupt practices of teh Labour party (sorry note to self; nothing the Labour Part does that breaks the law is corrupt because the law doesnt apply to you lot)
103. Like the GOP using the Supreme Court to stop a recount? Or stopping gun contol measures in DC? Both sides do it when it suits them.
1. The term “Rep” isn’t used because it can be confused with the abbreviation for “Representative”, a member of the lower house of congress.
114. I am confident Nevada will tip a lost faster than Indiana and South Carolina.
95, 116 It is naive to equate referenda with democracy. Almost any totalitarian regime you care to name has had itself confirmed in power by referenda - Hitler and Franco both did it and the Burmese were at it only recently. And referenda do not end arguments - the EC is still one of the most divisive issues in British politics more than 30 years after the referendum which was supposed to decide the issue.
118/119 - Do you want it with me, DC?
I don’t mind acting, on occasions, as a kind of ersatz Jack.
Media blamed for national tension
“England and Scotland have drifted further apart since devolution and are growing more ignorant of each other, according to a think tank.
The claim is made in an Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) paper by journalist Douglas Fraser, on the media’s influence post-devolution.
It lays much of the blame on the London-based media, which is accused of “metropolitan myopia”.
Mr Fraser is Scottish political editor of the Herald newspaper.
He notes that London newspapers now produce Scottish editions, and strip Scottish news from the English version, while the Scottish media has focussed more attention on what happens at Holyrood.
He said this combined to make the nations seem increasingly distant from each other and could actively create cross-border tensions.
Mr Fraser identified a “metropolitan myopia”, where London-based media failed to reflect properly what was going on, not only in Scotland, but also Wales and the English regions.”
126 The EU is a divisive issue, possibly because the only referendum on it that we’ve been allowed in this country was on the Common Market, and not on the EC or the EU, neiter of which existed back then
neither, not neiter
re 117 what about 1983? They had a more popular leader back in those days as well.
126 - It is equally naive to assume that referenda cannot be democratic.
Britain now has a reasonably well-established practice in relation to referenda, which is to conduct them on matters relating to the governance of the group of people potentially affected (see Scotland, Wales, London, Northern Ireland, NE Assembly, Hartlepool etc). That seems perfectly defensible to me. New EU constitutions fit in with that practice.
The anomaly is the commitment to hold a referendum on joining the Euro. That seems stupid to me, yet is completely uncontroversial.
120. A very important point. Fiscal policy was used in the 2000s when manipulating interest rates was no longer possible due to BoE independence.
But fiscal policy is a much cruder tool, and importantly the government has largely run out of room to use it anyway - borrowing levels are already high and will get higher still as the slowdown bites. Labour may even find they have to tighten policy to stop the deficit ballooning.
So a) past swingback may have been a statistical artefact, reflecting economic policy moves that can’t now be repeated and
b) it looks grim for Labour, with the economic toolbox now empty.
whohahahahahha
Cant make 19 June - Council mtg that night :-(((
126 Since the majority of the referenda you mention could in no sense be regarded as genuine tests of the popular will, I don’t think that backs up the view that referenda don’t equate to democracy. You might just as well cite cases of fradulent elections to claim that elections don’t equate to democracy.
123 I had our own country’s politics in mind.
121 The Carolinas, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio.
126. This is the kind of referendum paper europhiles would like -
123 WRT the Supreme Court, it’s been long established as a politically partisan body, to which each side tries to get as many of its own people appointed as possible. Our constitution has traditionally vested legislative supremacy in Parliament, but we’re moving away from that.
126. That’s because the EC has changed from what we voted for 30 years ago.
OT: If Hispanics do go strongly for Obama this election, the GOP must be very worried in future, because its unlikely you’ll get a Republican better suited to that demographic than John McCain. In future elecions the Democrats could expect to pick up Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. Combined with the West coast, the four Midwestern states and a solid run in New England that gives them an electoral college win even if the GOP pick up Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Michigan. Texas could also be under threat in the longer term.
Counteracting trends: Mormons in Nevada at 11% and counting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Stimzettel-Anschluss.jpg
132. So you think it’s sensible to have 27 electorates second-guessing 27 governments over a treaty/constitution negotiated at length between them?
135, 137. Fair points.
140 Better than 27 electorates having to put up with whatever rubbish emerges from the smoke filled rooms, that the governments know would be opposed by their electorates. Personally I’d go for 26 electorates doing whatever they wanted, and us safely outside
140. Yes, why not?
140. Yes, because the change will be a permanent one affecting the rules of the game for all voters, not just those supporters of the government in power at that one time.
140 - I don’t think it’s sensible to change the constitution once every five to ten years. Don’t you think that’s the bigger problem?
In the last 32 years I have voted just once for the party that formed the new government. Almost always being on the losing side has such wonderful consolations. It means that I can bitch with the best of them.
When I voted Labour [old socialist Labour] in 1997 I quickly recognised the foolishness of my ways and resigned from the party after 39 years of membership.
I know that after the next election I can begin to bitch again.
Life is great if you ignore the government or moan about it.
Malcolm
140 Yes.
143, 144. Look, if you’re not happy with what the government have negotiated, chuck them out in 2010. And if, in 2014, you’re not 100.00% happy with the relationship between Britain and the EU, chuck that government out, too. And keep chucking them out until you’re happy. That’s democracy.
127 PtP. “ersatz Jack …”
135 Sean F. Thanks for that.
I’ve got North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio as trending toward “likely Obama” +6/+10%.
148. But that won’t make much of a difference if an increasing amount of our policy is set in an undemocratic Brussels. This is simply a policy that can be overturned, it’s a constitutional change which is so much harder to extricate ourselves from. Eurofederalists know this very well, which is why they are refusing to have a referendum on it.
148 - Why should this particular constitutional issue have different treatment for referenda than any other? You are seeking to establish an anomaly. Your reason for establishing an anomaly is administrative convenience. That’s not democracy.
150. “This isn’t simply.”
Sadly there is little democracy witihn the EU. tw nations have voted this constitution down. It is possible a third will do so. Despite the electorates being subject to a level of propaganda that would make the Soviets blush.
If the 27 Nations of the EU agree to a united Federal Europe then it will come into being with legitamacy. There is no democratic mandate for this extraordinary change in the way that we are all to be governed.
New Rasmussen Poll for South Carolina :
McCain 48% .. Obama 39% .. Others 6%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_presidential_election
127 “Do you want it with me, DC?”
I bet you say that to all the boys PtP.
96. To be fair, the Scottish devolution proposal seriously affected the way the English were governed, as it freed 59 MPs to vote on many issues without concern for how it affected their constituents. For that reason the English should have been asked about it. Had devolution been combined with EVEL THEN it would have been acceptable for the only people to be consulted to be the Scottish.
135 But that’s my point - who decides what is a “genuine test of the popular will” - the losing side in 1975 said that it was all down to bias by both the government, business and the media. Which it was - the governmemt issued 3 booklets, two of which were pro and one anti. Business and the media were overwhelmingly pro and the yes side outspent the no side by miles. Many people at the time (the losers I mean) argued it was not a “genuine test of the popular will.”
151. “Why should this particular constitutional issue have different treatment for referenda than any other?”
Single European Act - no referendum
Maastricht Treaty - no referendum
I agree, why have one now?
15, seanT: Funny you should say that because “Ladyboys of Bagkok” is in Bristol for the summer, and is very popular with Lib Dem supporters.
158 - reread 132.
Bangkok even…
5. New Labour replaced a eurosceptic Old Labour. Labour were traditionally the eurosceptics, and the Conservatives the signers of the big Treaties - the Single European Act and Maastricht.
If Labour dump Brown, they are dumping the remnants of New Labour. Their natural next step is back to what they were before Blair and Brown sold Britain out finally into the EU…euroscepticism and renegotiation - before the Conservatives seize this agenda and consolidate their coming period in power into a ten year plus one.
Labour MPs could also be riding on the post-Lisbon rising tide of British euroscepticism, not sidelined for a generation who will never trust them again.
149- 154- Jack W
How do you translate a 9% lead for McCain in a 6/10% Obama lead?
157. While I am a proponent of campaign finance reform, such a system is still clearly a different league of representating public opinion than manufactured plebiscites elsewhere.
163 Chris. Where ??
157. On that basis you could refuse to have parliamentary elections as well.
158. The Lisbon Treaty establishes EU law over UK law, that is a change in sovereignty, and thus a constitutional change.
163 Chris. I think you’ve confused the two Carolinas.
That Rasmussen will tip SC from Toss Up Obama to Toss Up McCain.
101 - I’d say it would be pretty terminal - you are forgetting that the present Libor includes a lump for credit crunch… so if by next march that hasn’t improved and rates are 0.4% higher I think the government and the economy will both be a smoking crater.
Unfortunately I don’t have access to the March 2010 short sterling - maybe gordon should get short just in case.
165- Sorry I confused the Carolinas (north you quote as Obama leaning 6/10%; South with the Rasmussen poll!)
I’m confused by your BUTT old man (or by the anxiety pre-first game of the euro)
170. Chris. I’ve NC presently as Toss Up Obama 0%-5% but trending to likely Obama 6%/10%.
155 PfP
Your near namesake pursues an extremely non-discriminatory policy, as you should know.
158 This government has no electoral mandate to introduce this particular constitutional change, nor has it tested the public will in a referendum campaign.
It’s as if a governing party suddenly decided to pass legislation extending the Parliamentary term to ten years from five(I might be giving them ideas here). In the absence of either putting that proposal to the electorate in a general election, or a referendum, it would be illegitimate.
158 - I think the Primary argument at present is
“BECAUSE THEY PROMISED!”
Apologies if posted before, but there’s a gathering storm on the inflation front.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7443501.stm
173 - it’s OK Sean, they can’t do that without a compliant Lords.
Cameron on MEPs via three line whip
“On more serious matters, he was talking very tough about any Tory MP or MEP caught breaking the rules on expenses and allowances.
“You saw what happened to Derek Conway - there are consequences,” he said. “If they’ve broken the rules, then as far as I am concerned as party leader, I take away the whip. If they’ve broken the law, they should face the appropriate consequences.”"
Huurah!
We don’t hear the Government talking too much about “long term interest rates” much these days. Must be an omission on their part.
PtP (ignoring PfP!!) - it’s a deal.
Bet void if either Obama or McCain are not alive and well and their party’s nominees on election day.
173. Perhaps Brown’s view is similar to that of De Valera
‘If I wish to know what the Irish want, I look into my own heart’…
177 - I can’t believe that you ignored the most important story on Three Line Whip:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/june2008/david-cameron-hair-dye.htm
I’ve never been able to take my brother-in-law seriously since I found the bottle of Just For Men.
179. I wonder what the odds are on who’ll survive the longest.
181 - ignored it? It was buried in that story!
A Roll Call journalist on why Jack W is wrong about a changing EC map
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/how_different_will_the_2008_wh.html
This is one of a number of analyses I’ve seen lately that suggest McCain will win the WH. I just pray Obama isn’t smart enough to choose Clinton.
Going back to the start of the thread and Mike’s piece on polling.
3 points.
One is that Mike wants a Tory landslide (for betting purposes) so he is going to find evidence to support that. For example the May 2003 ICM poll he quotes shows Labour’s position around the Iraq invasion. However, as it became clear that the invasion was a bit of a disaster, that support fell away, and Labour were regularly getting only 35% to 38% all the way to the General Election from the month after the one he mentions - so in that case Labour did not fall away from their polling position, merely they maintained it for 23 months. The 2001-2005 parliament was in two halves - the pre Iraq / post Iraq - and this was well represented by ICM.
Moreover, the Conservative position fluctuated occasionally, but actually generally remained very stable in the mythical 32-34 box for most of the period once IDS had been disposed of, rallying briefly towards the end, before falling back at the last hurdle.
2. Mike likes to point out the overstatement of Labour. However, he does not mention in these discussions the YouGov overstatement of the Cons in the lead up to the Mayoral election for example. Even taking account the last poll, done right on the day, YouGov’s evening standard polls overestimated the Tory by an average of 3.4%. So although they were in the ‘right direction’ they were still wrong.
3. My final point is that Labour at present are in a situation that they have not been in in any of those analyses, but the Tories were - and that is in the heart of a disillusioned mid-term. The Iraq midterm was almost there, but the Tories were so despised that there was no challenge.
So in summary, I think Mike draws some false conclusions. Don’t get me wrong, I think that the Tories will probably win, but I think that it is jumping the gun to say landslide at this point.
181
Will there now be an investigation into how many MP’s both male and female dye their hair, or have changed their parting. Truly pathetic.
185 - Oh lighten up, baby. Remember all those Tories who laughed at the orange blob of make-up on Gordon Brown and who made cruel comments about Ming Campbell’s age. Or even who liken Nick Clegg to a certain former leader of the Labour party. It’s part of the rough and tumble of politics.
175 Capital Economics described UK producer price figures as “absolutely horrendous”.
That says it all.
Henley Betting news William Hill are offering just 1/66 on the Tories and 14/1 on the Lib Dems.
The latter compares with the 6/1 from Ladbrokes.
I can see a lot of LD activists being tempted by that 14/1
181 People who go grey early are often jealous of those who don’t. This example of Gurklzeit journalism isn’t as funny as it could be though.
Blair’s wierd haircolour changes never got the coverage it deserved!
183 test. How very dare you !!
Embrace my BUTT …. there is no other way !!
188 and tory activists - compensation for losing!!
183. The idea that Maine will be competitive suggests that analysis isn’t a very good one.
This should make the National Press tomorrow.
It would appear that both at National & Local level NuLabour hasn’t got a clue about finances.
The head of an audit panel probing into the London Development Agency (LDA) and Greater London Authority (GLA)’s financial management has admitted she is ‘somewhat horrified’ by what she has found so far.
The Forensic Audit Panel, which London Mayor Boris Johnson set up following his election last month, has unveiled a culture of reckless spending and political interference with few checks and balances, according to its head Patience Wheatcroft.
She said seven police investigations had already been launched, two of which had since been dropped, and more referrals to Scotland Yard had not been ruled out, The Press Association reports.
The investigations all relate to LDA except the seventh which involves the GLA and its role in Caribbean Showcase, an event partly organised by Lee Jasper, former mayor Ken Livingstone’s controversial senior aide
re 184 The point about betting Paul is that if you wait until everything is obvious to everyone then you get miserable odds.
It wasn’t obvious that Barack would win the Democratic nomination when I backed him for the WH at 50/1.
It wasn’t obvious that Cameron would get the Tory leadership when I backed him at 6/1 and 10/1.
It wasn’t obvious that Harriet Harman would get the deputy leadership when I backed her at 9/1.
It wasn’t obvious that that Gord would bottle the general election decision last October when I was able to chalk up profits of £3083.
I could go on an on..I back my judgement and make a nice tax-free income.
& 194. I try not let my personal prejudices cloud my betting decision making
185.MTF, we are entering the silly period again.
196 - Do we ever really leave the silly season nowadays?
167. Yes, but would an anti-EU Parliament be possible - or rather, be accepted as fully legitimate? There’s a niggling precedent that should be remembered. Austria in 2000. Sure, one party in the coalition was generally regarded outside Austria as a nasty bunch of right-wing holocaust deniers, but it was the EU that determined that the Austrians had sadly strayed by voting for the wrong people and must be brought back to the paths of righteousness. In other words, b*gger the electorate, we insist that this is changed.
Vote ‘No’ in a referendum and a country can be expected to be asked to do it again, only get the right answer this time. It’s a small step from referendums to elections, especially when it’s been done before and especially when Brussels will be claiming over-arching sovereignty for institutions within the EU.
From waaaaay back I seem to recall EU legislation (or perhaps a proposal) that anti-EU activity be classed as a crime, with goal a possibility on conviction. Tried googling, but no luck so far. Anyone else remember this? If it is so, then I foresee major problems.
187 When Gordon loses the tractor production narartive of low interest rates, low inflation and low unemployment then its all over for him.
We are now going to see interest rate increases to combat out of control inflation and the consequences of that for house prices and employment are dire
ABC’s “The Note” reviews the up-coming campaign as Obama starts a swing through Bush states of North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio :
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1
189. Personally, I’m at that awkward stage, after the distinguished ’salt and pepper’ but not yet a ’silver fox’.
188. Any sign of a Henley constituency opinion poll?
198. If you want to belong to a club you have to abide by the rules. Can’t see your point really.
202 Well yes, but if the rules are you can only elect the “right” people, or vote the correct way in a referendum (were the rulers to deign to offer one) then the club would seem to be someone estranged from democracy in any meaning of the word
Afternoon folks, I see you have all been expending a great deal of energy this morning as usual.
Re my remarks last night and the responses of Mark Senior, Mark I had no idea you live on the south coast and frankly you can be as incisive about Scottish politics as I hope I can be on those in the SE of Englandshire :-). I enjoy our debates back and forth.
Re this thread, speaking on polls in Scotland, historically they have always badly underestimated Tory support (by up to 5%) and to a lesser extent SNP support. For example before the 2007 Scottish General Election the polls had the Tories down at 11-13% throughout the campaign and the actual votes ended up at nearer 17%. Labour have always been grossly overstated in Scottish polls. I think it is a cultural thing. In Scotland most Tories simply either refuse to answer pollsters or give a false answer and hitherto it was “normal” to vote Labour. In 1987 I had some party workers who when polled gave a different answer every time but I hope and believe they voted for me.
In my analysis of Scotland 2010 which you have had bits of, I preface my remarks by saying I have assumed the SNP and Labour will both poll in the 30-35% range with the Tories in the 20-25% range and the Liberal Democrats in the 10-15% range. Realistically the SNP and Labour are the two parties who will compete in every type of seat in all parts of the country and the Tories and LibDems challenge will be more targeted.
On the subject of MPs/MEPs expenses, yesterday Adam Boulton made a reference to there being some “intelligence” that the issue has come out because of digging by Labour party officials and it was noticeable that after Caroline Spellman came out fighting on Saturday, the Tina woman issued a statement that evening backtracking on what she had told Newsnight.
Which Newsnight producer/director/researcher is married to or lives with a senior Labour party official or MP? It is interesting to think that if the media are going to have a go at MEPs expenses, what might they find about Messrs Clegg and Huhne? I admired the LibDem MEP who spoke up for the Tory MEPs on camera and said he didnt think they had intentionally done anything wrong. My reading of the coverage is not that a Derek conway situation is present. No-one seems to be doubting the money was spent on genuine secretarial support, only whether the level of remuneration in question was at “market rates”. Certainly one thing everyone agrees is the Brussels gravy train has to stop though ironically our MEPs are among the less well paid compared to some of our European neighbours and their expenses etc.
202 Are you not allowed a say in what the rules actually are? If not then I wouldn’t want to be a member of the club.
198. Yes, there was some talk of effectively making ‘EU denial’ a crime. It fits with the notions of some of the more extreme proponents of EU integration that opposition to th EU process is tantamount to support for war and even genocide. Strangely enough, many of the people who hold this view come from…..
198. Oh, I agree. But if you don’t want to belong to the club, but aren’t allowed to say so?
Found the the reference: It is illegal to critisise the EU under the 1999 ruling under the European Court of Justice case c274/99
198 The EU certainly acts as a brake on extremist and racist parties coming to power - most people would see that as one of its advantages.
186 Fair play anti frank, you are right I DID laugh at Gordon’s orange blob, but then again, everyome laughs at Gordon.
208 Yes, and the definition of “extremist” is obviously a black and white issue, about which there could be no debate….
We’ve been over all this ground before.
i) it’s silly to compare anything with a single poll. Sampling error alone will make a fool of you 75% of the time.
ii) Even if Mike’s selective use of polls happens to be in the lucky 25%, pray tell how can a government “recover” from 46% (or 42%) popularity? !!
210 Holocaust deniers are extremists. No debate.
209 - It’s more fun being a floating voter, because then you can laugh at everyone. Besides, how many of these politicians can you take seriously, really?
213. Hitler?
The “Columbus Dispatch” finds Ohio voters have misgivings over both candidates :
http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/06/09/tough_turf.ART_ART_06-09-08_B1_T5AE57R.html?sid=101
204.What did you think of Kirsty Wark going on holiday with our then first Minister a few years back?
Kate Hoey clings on
“There’s a fascinating account of Kate Hoey’s tearful battle to hang on to her seat over at Labour Home.
The tears did the trick, apparently, and Hoey has survived the bid to de-select her as an MP following her appointment as Boris Johnson’s sport advisor.
One special little nugget is that Lee Jasper himself led the failed putsch at the Vauxhall CLP meeting last week.”
I know nothing about the politics in that constituency, but I would have thought that Kate Hoey was quite a popular MP? Was there any risk that deselecting her might have caused a backlash against the Labour vote and any new candidate?
211/212 - I don’t even think that was done deliberately!
179 Sure, Double Carpet - and imo, friendly little bets like this are always void if bizarre or unpleasant circumstances intervene.
I’m also prepared to donate my £25 to Jack’s botox fund if I win, but what you would do with yours is of course your business.
208 In the short term, probably. In the longer term, probably not, as people with quite legitimate complaints are treated as being beyond the pale.
It’s rather like the medieval Catholic church. By ignoring/burning reformers, it eventually saw half Europe lost to people who wanted to destroy it, rather than reforming it.
207 - That case says nothing of the sort. This was about the Commission employee who was sacked for publishing a book condemning his employer in breach of contract. That is exactly what would happen in the private sector and rightly so. It most certainly doesn’t make criticising the EC illegal and is the usual far right propoganda.
212. That’s odd, when i was studying History as an undergrad, i must have missed the class that said ‘all historical events are up for debate and interpretation, except the Holocaust’.
What a deeply unpleasant thought, that some people think it should be a crime to hold an opinion.
216. how would Grasper be able to represent his constituents from prison?
212. People who say “no debate” to anything are ipso facto extremists…
220 EU institutions do have a long record, though, of punishing people who expose malpractice within them.
212. Is it not possible they have simply been misled?
For those interested in the US election, I’ve played about with some figures and have come to the conclusion that McCain wins if he gets:
Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and one of Nevada, Missouri or New Hampshire
And loses if he doesn’t.
re 173 Sean if the government tried that the House of Lords would immediately veto it. We didn’t need referendums in 1911 or 1949 when the parliamentary term was reduced from 7 years to 5 and then the powers of the House of Lords reduced further.
212. Yes, they are. But this is still the thin end of a very dodgy wedge. For convenience in one particular instance, the EU has assumed competence in determining electoral legitimacy. It may have gathered the approval of many in this one case, and I hope they don’t live to regret having allowed the principle to be established.
Mike. You seem to be specialising in taking exception to my points at the moment. But I don’t always disagree with you and I merely am trying to provide added information. It’s just recently you seem to have made up your mind and are now searching for information that backs up your position. That is fine, but I simply don’t think that all the facts fit quite the way that you want them to.
So betting aside I thought I would point out some other ‘facts’ about the opinion polls.
I would never tell you how to bet, Mike, and I respect what you say. But I do not think you are God either, and I don’t always agree with your analysis. And this is one of those occasions.
219. The parallels are indeed fascinating. The church condemned ‘heretics’ from the earliest times, but pretty soon ‘heretic’ became strangely conflated with ‘person opposing aspects of the way the church is run’ as well as someone denying church doctrines.
The EU appears to be going the same way. Having convinced itself that it alone stands between Europe and barbarism (an interesting take on thousands years of history) it now takes the view that anyone questioning its role or purpose is utterly beyond the pale, even criminal.
If a person exhibited such traits, they would be sectioned for having a dangerous personality disorder.
221 I did not say it was a crime to hold an opinion. I just said that people who hold such an opinion can reasonably be considered extremists. Along with those who think people who experiment on animals should be terrorised - they are also extremists. As are those who believe in the dictatorship of the proletariat (if there are any left).
Holocaust deniers are not debating or interpreting the holocaust - they are denying it - denying a historical fact.
226 But in both cases, election campaigns had been fought in which the winning party was pledged to reduce the powers of the House of Lords. If, as eurosceptics claim, this is the EU constitution, then the government has broken its promise to consult the people on it. If it isn’t, as the government claims, it has never sought popular approval at any level for this constitutional change.
229. It’s the very impulse and instinct running through all EU institutions. The only way this has a chance of being cleared is a radical democratisation of the Commission, the Council and the Parliament, with the hope that the people that come in might start opening up the windows in the bureaucracy beneath it.
Until that happens, I can’t see anyone who considers themselves a liberal can support this thing.
I think talk of Tory Landslides is just that talk.
I cannot see the Labour party going into an election without some recovery if they have already reached there nadir. If Brown goes then the new person if timed right and spun right would get a boost in the polls.
Even if the Labour party just recovered to about 30%, that would be enough to stop a tory landslide. The LD blocking factor in about 40 seats also prevents a landslide. I just do not think it is on the cards what so ever. Tories usually managed to get in with small working majorities and then increase that majority such as in the 50’s and 80’s. Where as Labour have only really benifited from this in 1966 and to a lesser extent the election in autumn 1974.
Whilst i acknoldge the electorate is more fickle, I just do not rate the chances of the tories winning landslide majorities. It would not make sense for the Tories to risk campaigning in target 201 instead of target 55! Any landslide would have to be done on a type of “Halo” affect where seats fell without campaigning like in 1997. I do not think the country is that despising of the Labour party yet. Yes Labour seem to have become an irrelavance and it is easy to sit through an interview with a cabinet minister and not take notice but Labour are not hated as yet.
The economic of the uk economy may cause a shift, however between now and the next GE. Household desposable income will continue to be eaten into and housing prices look likely to fall as lending criteria tightining have locked out many first time buyers and is begining to eat into the affordability or availibility of housing where punters have equity! So, indeed the conditions could be there for a hating of Labour but we are not quite there yet!
229. To substantially criticise the EU is already considered to be a crime. It was first called ‘blasphemy’ by the AG of the ECJ, but this was later watered down to ’substantial criticism’ after complaints by the religious fraternity.
Bernard Connolly in his action for unfair dismissal as an EU employee (he had published a book criticising the Euro called The Rotten Heart Of Europe) claimed damages. His claim was refused, and the AG stated that his actions in criticising the EU undermined his claim, in that he had committed a crime by doing so.
229. Well one thing the EU assuredly is not, is ‘liberal’.
230. Don’t you think that labelling anyone who disagrees with your view of the world as a criminal is also a rather extremist stance?
To put some of the above into context, here’s part of the official summary of the decision of the European Court mentioned above:
“Officials and other employees of the European Communities enjoy the right of freedom of expression, even in areas falling within the scope of the activities of the Community institutions. That freedom extends to the expression, orally or in writing, of opinions that dissent from or conflict with those held by the employing institution.
However, it is also legitimate in a democratic society to subject public servants, on account of their status, to obligations such as those contained in Articles 11 and 12 of the Staff Regulations. Such obligations are intended primarily to preserve the relationship of trust which must exist between the institution and its officials or other employees. The scope of those obligations must vary according to the nature of the duties performed by the person concerned or his place in the hierarchy. In terms of Article 10(2) of the European Convention for the protection of Human Rights, specific restrictions on the exercise of the right of freedom of expression can, in principle, be justified by the legitimate aim of protecting the rights of others. The rights at issue here are those of the institutions that are charged with the responsibility of carrying out tasks in the public interest. Citizens must be able to rely on their doing so effectively.
That is the aim of the regulations setting out the duties and responsibilities of the European public service. So an official may not, by oral or written expression, act in breach of his obligations under the regulations, particularly Articles 11, 12 and 17, towards the institution that he is supposed to serve. That would destroy the relationship of trust between himself and that institution and make it thereafter more difficult, if not impossible, for the work of the institution to be carried out in cooperation with that official.
In exercising their power of review, the Community Courts must decide, having regard to all the circumstances of the case, whether a fair balance has been struck between the individual’s fundamental right to freedom of expression and the legitimate concern of the institution to ensure that its officials and agents observe the duties and responsibilities implicit in the performance of their tasks. In that regard, whenever civil servants’ right to freedom of expression is in issue the duties and responsibilities referred to in Article 10(2) of the Convention assume a special significance, which justifies leaving to the national authorities a certain margin of appreciation”
230. Historical facts are not by themselves evidence. I recommend you read ‘what is history?’ by e h carr it will give you a grounding in the role of the selector in the distribution of facts.
Here is a short piece discussing the issue, the most important point is the final quote direct from Carr himself which illustrates how naively facts are ‘accepted’ as divine truth, when they are nothing of the sort.
Take the vexed issue of facts. Carr’s answer to the question “What is a historical fact?” is to argue, that facts arise through “…an a priori decision of the historian” (Carr 1961: 11). It is how the historian then arranges the facts as derived from the evidence, and influenced by his knowledge of the context, that constitutes historical meaning. For Carr a fact is like sack, it will not stand up until you put ’something’ in it. The ’something’ is a question addressed to the evidence. As Carr insists, “The facts speak only when the historian calls on them: it is he who decides to which facts to give the floor, and in what order or context” (Carr 1961: 11).
230. So the “holocaust” is the only “historical fact” in the entire history of the world which is not capable of “revision” in the light of new evidence, or sober analysis…
Presumably you would apply the same to the Talmudic claims that 4 billion Jews were murdered by the Romans, or that Jews were “steamed to death” or “electrocuted on conveyor belts” by the Nazis..
Debating the “holocaust” is simply about separating fact from folklore….
218 PtP. Jack W needs slightly more than £25 for a botox fund !! :
http://www.d.umn.edu/cla/faculty/troufs/Buffalo/images/Wrinkle3clsup2.jpg
238. Everything should always be up for revision, but to suggest the Holocaust didn’t happen is a similar level of barminess of say, denying the Seven Years War.
Rod do you believe the Holocaust happened?
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 50%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
208-The EU has no problem with left wing extremist parties joining governments.
Gaz two points.
1) Yes. History is written by the winners.
2) Carr is not saying that historians make up facts, he is merely saying historians choose which ones to use and how. Now, you could under those circumstances play down the significance of the holocaust, or even deny that there is anything morally wrong with the holocaust. That deniers choose not to do this is proof that the majority of us would not feel in the slightest bit comfortable with that. Instead, holocaust deniers choose to change facts because it does not fit the story - and that does not make them historians, but liars.
Another outside name for veep: popular former Florida governor and senator Bob Graham. Don’t think much of it myself, but I’ll let others make their minds up.
241. As an historical event it certainly looks like a deliberate attempt was successfully made to exterminate gypsies, homosexuals, jews and dissidents. The Jews in particular were specifically rounded up for no other reason then been jewish.
Everything else is up for interpretation, and that includes the numbers, the scale and how much of the extermination was a specific policy ordered by the top down, or something carried out on a more local level as a result of the inevitable dehumanisation process, and the way that prisoners were looked upon by the guards, led them to think of them as animals and treat them as such, is all up for grabs.
204 - Easterross -
Trivia: “Which Newsnight producer/director/researcher is married to or lives with a senior Labour party official or MP?”
Can’t imagine, but in January 2007, it was reported by the Daily Mail that a certain right honourable gentleman was given an “easy ride” in an interview with Jeremy Paxman on BBC’s Newsnight because he (the RHG, not Paxman, of course) was having a relationship with one of the producers.
Surprisingly, the BBC found no wrongdoing. The RHG also denied inappropriately using his government car.
Mind boggles.
246. You think the ovens could have been spontaneously organised in numerous locations by guards that dehumanised their inmates??
235 This is a good example of re-writing historical fact - in this case the facts of previous posts. Could you please refer me to the post in which I “label anyone who disagress with .. [me] as a criminal”? Please give the post number in which I say this.
235. He didn’t say they were criminals, or should be treated as such. He said they were extremists.
107. Is that landslide territory? I put a lot of my faith in ARSE, but isn’t there a danger forecasting from this far out?
247. Did you know that Nick Robinson used to be a national chairman of the young conservatives?
Knee jerk reaction: BIAS!!!!
Gaz. Now you are heading towards Cloudcuckooland. I think Carr’s interpretation of history didn’t allow for ‘Whoops, we just seem to have murdered 6 million Jews, and 4 million other assorted people, but believe me when I say it just got a bit out of hand. You know what these local administrators are like, they take everything too far. But hey, at least we made the trains run on time’
Please get real.
15. SeanT. I can never understand your insatiable desire to share your sex life with a load of strangers. You must realize that however you word your sojourn to Bangkok and hint at interesting times with “Pang from Issan or the Coyote Girls” most on here just imagine you to be another of those sad middle aged Englishmen who misguidedly think they are bringing some joy and money to some unfortunate prepubescents who were born on the wrong side of the tracks.
251. Regardless of specific examples of bias, don’t you think Andrew Marr might be quite a reliable source when he claims it exists?
251 In the YC’s he was known as Red Robbo.
255. That might say more about the YCs than Robinson. There’s one chairman of conservative future that has told friends of mine I’m a “socialist”.
Please can we desist with discussion of the Holocaust?
There are plenty of other sites on which to debate it - Mike does not want this to be one of them.
Many thanks
MORUS
Newsnight’s connections with the Labour party are deep and extensive.
Kirsty Wark and partner holidaying with Labour’s Scottish First Minister. Another is Will Hutton (ex presenter) who is a well known anti-capitalist.
Crick is yet another, as was the “producer” friendly with Labour cabinet minister Purnell.
NewLabournight anyone?
Socrates, 256. I was about to say the same thing.
256 He was very anti-Thatcher, although some of his critics were undoubtedly quite wild. IIRC, he was elected YCs Chairman at the conference at which I met Mr. Beggs.
TC. Will Hutton is not a “well known anti-capitalist”. He is a well known neo Keynesian - hardly the same thing.
spread-betting millionaire
Stuart Wheeler, the spread-betting millionaire, will today begin his High Court battle over the Government’s refusal to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/2098098/EU-treaty-court-battle-begins.html
test
245. Bob Graham now in ladbrokes list at 40/1.
This has been quite a lively market since last week. Our biggest losers are -
Gore
Clinton
Sebelius
Richardson
Webb
254.Do you give much credence to Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly when they talk about the liberal media? Not that Andrew Marr is anything like them. There are examples of slight bias in the BBC either way, none of them are significant. Labourhome had an article the other day about how Nick Robinson’s conjuecture about Brown’s mental health was biased. I don’t think partisan’s are in a position to judge.
Here’s a quote from freedom house (american think tank, by no means left wing):
“British media are free and largely independent from government interference. The United Kingdom has a strong tradition of public broadcasting, and the British Broadcasting Corporation, although funded by the government, is editorially independent.”
Conservatives do not like the BBC because it is state owned and funded. I think they should have the honesty to admit that.
257. A lot of very good friends of mine are conservative. That doesn’t make me a conservative.
1 - Without reading the whole thread in detail, John Loony asked whether there was a reason we talk about the GOP and Dems, not shortening Republican to Reps.
The reason is that just as Illinois Democratic Senator Obama becomes Sen. Obama (D-IL), so Democratic Congressman Murthy of the 12th Pennsylvanian District is actually written Rep. Murthy (D-PA-12), because Congressmen (members of the House of Representatives) enjoy the official title ‘Representative’ thus ‘Rep.’
To avoid confusion (ie Democratic Congressmen), the term Rep. tends to be reserved for Congressmen’s titles, and GOP is the preferred label for members of the Republican Party.
Just wondering if the GMB issue with its 108 sponsored Labour MPs has anything to do with the fact that the unions most fiercely opposed to the European Constitution include the GMB and Unison, which have more than 1.6 million members between them.
264 Ouch! That looks like an unhealthy book you have there, Shadsy. Richardson and Webb must have good chances, and Sebelius isn’t out of it.
If it helps though, your firm can back Clinton with me. No more than a few million, mind.
247 I guess Adam Boulton is also biased too beacuse of his marriage.
268. A long summer of speculation should help us turn this worrying situation around, PtP. Webb is the only one of those I could fancy at the moment. And we’ve got about 30 other possibles running for us.
269 - Absolutely. To the Tories
271 Good to see you JohnO! Finally come down from the ceiling after the great Tory polls/results?
253. Roger! At least I’m not a sad OLD Englishman, now retired from a tragically pointless career selling Kit-e-Kat.
Back on topic, I think the world would like to know that I’ve just sold the rights to The Genesis Secret to: Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Russia and - yes! - Thailand.
But the advances?! Pitiful! Barely four figures in each territory. WTF?
Clearly I am now being personally disadvantaged by the ravages of communism. If stupid smelly socialists like, say, Roger, hadn’t ruined these economies I would now be enjoying healthy five or six figure advances, from ex Warsaw Pact countries, and I would be even further down the road to my first yacht.
F***ing lefties. When I get home I intend to visit Highgate and do “The Hustle” on Karl Marx’s grave.
273 Look on the bright side, at least you can keep those foreign advances away from the grasping, corrupt hands of gordon brown
273. Make sure you get paid in euros, Sean, and not Brown’s ever-dwindling pound.
274. How??!!
I’ve actually looked into tax exile status - believe it or not - and it’s quite hard to achieve.
Not that I want to deprive Alisdair Darling of my hard-earned money, of course. It’s just that I think I’m doing enough work for underpriveliged youth here in Bangkok without adding to my charitable burden by paying for the indigent poor in Britain - who, quite frankly, are never going to give me “happy finish”.
BTW I have had a gin and tonic, in celebration of my unexpected eastern bloc earnings.
274 Brown is not corrupt.
Off topic. Saw some nasty anti-Polish graffiti on the first rail bridge north of Gatwick. Go home and Scum were in it. Not good.
250 G. Not sure I’d call it “landslide”.
Landslide in US terms is normally reserved for a Johnson 64, Nixon 72 or Reagan 84 type win.
An Obama win 356/182 is in the range of the two Clinton wins - 92-370/168 and 96 - 379/159.
277…is lying a form of corruption?
@273:
I spy a new book idea.
“SeanT’s inappropriate places to Do The Hustle”
3. Karl Marx’s Grave
17. The Intensive Care section of Great Ormond Street hospital
121. Zimbabwe
280 If that was the case all of us would be corrupt.
@280:
Only where the lie is intended to conceal some underlying conflict of interest.
276. Spend 183 days outside the UK in any one year(or 90 odd on average over 4 years) and makes sure you receive no overseas earnings in the UK…sorted.
278. If the economy slows by as much as it is showing likely due to falling consumer demand etc. Then i think graffiti of this type will rise. Interestingly Labour have sort to protect Asian Immigrants from this abuse but is legally being anti-polish as serious as been a Pakistani people hater? I should imagine it is but the former is dealt with less harsly than the lattor.
277. But the whiff of corruption certainly surrounds his government!
277. Does corruption have to be financial? What about entering into a legal arrangement on false pretences?
91/123
Again, the Left shall not be confused with partisanery.
Brian Schweitzer, which I’m beggining to be a fan of, is clearly a right-winger, yet he’s a Democrat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0i9o-ThOPM&feature=related
And many policies of Bush Jr are obviously left-wing, as socialistic — like “No Child Left Behind”.
However, I do think the dynamics has changed; pre-1960, I’d say it was the opposite: the Left fighting against more power to the bureaucrats (like Ed Murrow fighting Sen. McCarthy in the US), whereas the Right (fascism, nationalistic socialism, etc) was prone to big government and radical intrusion into the life and the brain and the habits of the people, as well as prone to censorship.
284.
Ta. But according to my accountant the UK authorities take a dim view of money earned abroad while you were a UK resident, and will still try to tax it. As all my income goes through my London agent that will be tricky for me. Also living abroad has to mean - apparently - staying in one place and being able to prove you live in that place. I move from hotel to hotel, as its part of my job.
Guess I’ll just have to stay in Blighty, technically, and pay my whack. Mr Patriotic!
This is all very weird for me. I don’t have a clue what to do with money. Never had more than two grand in the bank. Never owned a new car. Never owned a home. I’ve only had a credit card for about three years (and I’m 44). Suddenly a wall of cash is about to fall on my head.
Weird.
In a few hours we should get to see what damage, if any, Nannygate has done to the Conservatives as Populus should be released.
Anybody have an opinion as what it’ll show?
289, I am poor. Give me the money.
137 — “moving away from legislative supremacy in Parliament”
Indeed :
Today, in the face of the continuous progression of something that could be defined as a “global civil war,” the state of emergency tends more and more to present itself as the dominant paradigm of government in contemporary politics. Once the state of emergency has become the rule, there is a danger that this transformation of a provisional and exceptional measure into a technique of government will entail the loss of the traditional distinction between different forms of Constitution.
The basic significance of the state of emergency as an original structure through which law incorporates the living being - and, this, by suspending itself - has emerged with full clarity in the military order that the President of the United States issued on November 13, 2001.
… -> http://www.generation-online.org/p/fpagambenschmitt.htm
290, I predicted this for the last poll, but I’m sticking with a moderate improvement for Labour and a little fall or the same for the Conservatives.
The nanny situation is nonsense. Indeed, if, as rumoured, Cameron goes on a killing spree of europhile MEPs (er, metaphorically speaking, of course) then he’ll be better viewed after the recent MEP/nanny events than before.
293. Yes, it seems that after all, the Europhile tendency among Tory MEPs is to be culled. ‘The Lord moves in mysterious ways…’
289 Labour are a bit short of money right now.
285. The absurd hate crime laws now make ethnic origin and nationality the same as race. So the courts would treat them similar.
The problem wont be the Poles so much if we do enter bad times, as the Polish economy will continue to boom, the mobile poles will hop it back home as the job market dries up. However the immigration from asia and africa is here for keeps, as state benefits in the majority of cases provide a standard of living significantly higher then the average standard of living of a working family in their original countries.
Life in employment, or life on the dole is better in most circumstance then returning home.
290 Mildly good for the Tories, methinks. It is difficult to get worked up about Nannygate - She was a working mother, for goodness sake. Quite diferent from the mortgage fiddles.
277 “i knew nothing about the loans” G Brown - Parliament
“it is inconceivable that Brown didnt know about the loans” Lord Levy - his book
Corrupt to the core
253. Roger! At least I’m not a sad OLD Englishman, now retired from a tragically pointless career selling Kit-e-Kat
I’ve just seen an ex camera assistant of mine-Jasper Fford-on TV who recently became a writer and now apparently serious money from it and he only focused the camera on the Kit-e-Kat tins!!
Well the last Populus poll was;
Lab 29% Con 40% Lib 19%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/populus
So, thats the base we’re starting from.
Beyond Partisanery: Right and Left on the issues
–view on immigration and its impact
–Taxes ((the Right prefer a tax system aiming more at consumption and pollution than at savings and capital)
–Healthcare (private insurances rather than public — for why would I paid for the big fat junk-eating cigarette-smoking sex-starving sweaty people who cannot take care ot themselves?)
–Social issues like family structure (ex: fighting agains homosexuals couple adopting babies to reverse and distort the phylum of homo sapiens)
@290:
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Nannygate will have no statistically-measurable effect whatsoever.
289 — ” a wall of cash is about to fall on my head.”
Good for you and your family!
On a wildly offtopic and more serious note, before I do my packing for the Thai islands, can I just note that there is no sense, here in Asia, of any economic crisis WHATSOEVER.
In the last week I’ve been in Singapore, Sumatra and now Thailand. They all feel like they are booming. And they are. Cranes everywhere. Growth rates robust. Property prices rising. A general sense of dynamism and development.
Of course this could be delusional - perhaps the ills of America and Europe are about to spread to the rest of the world - as they have always done before. But I wonder. This may be the first big economic slowdown where the west suffers - but not the rest. Certainly Asia feels somewhat decoupled.
Intriguing…
301 my feelings as well, but the 42 days issue might resonate, its been in the news a lot, most people are in favour (I am not one of them).Then again diesel is up 5p in the last week. Lots of variables….., the only non variable is that Brown is useless.
303. How much of their wealth is dependent on selling exports to europe and america though??????
289 - how much cash exactly?
enquiring minds want to know.
303 = 304…..
301. I tend to agree there, it is unlikely to change any votes. If Cameron turns the weakness of the issue into a stregnth it may actually improve the Tories competitiveness.
I actually think that Labour MP popping up (Kevin Jones) has been very unwise in making it partisan. When the Blair Mortgage expenses came out and the Labour MP insuring her spouse with tax payer money the tories stayed quite. As with all things in politics the media can give one moment and take the next - If i were Kevin Jones i would be fearful of the spotlight as potential minor lapses could be poured over in his case and vilified by the media. But i am sure he has made no accounting mistakes and does not use his communication allowance or do anything else to soil his whiter than white reputation by steering well away from gray areas..
225/245 — Thanks, Socrates.
Oooh, the excellent “the Mole” blog with the gossip again.
“C4 film suggests Brown is off his rocker”
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,c4-film-suggests-brown-is-off-his-prime-ministerial-trolley,30743
I’ll stick my neck out and say I expect Populus to show a small increase in the Conservative lead.
“The subtext of this sort of report is that Brown is not up the job psychologically and may be cracking up. The Brown camp have furiously denied any such thing, but it is bound to trigger a new round of questions about whether he’s going slightly off his prime ministerial trolley.
The bulk of the Rawnsley programme is even more depressing for Brown. It focuses on the ‘on-off’ general election last autumn. Those who were in the ‘let’s go for it’ brigade such as Ed Balls seem to be keeping their heads down. Others - some with the benefit of hindsight - are going public, saying they were always against an autumn general election. They include Jack Straw, who the Mole knows was genuinely against it, Hazel Blears and Murray Elder, a friend of Brown since childhood. The whole episode reinforced Brown’s reputation for dithering.”
The Mole, it must be said, during the days of Blair was a reliably Brownite poster. This blog jumps wholesale to the Miliband camp.
The other thing is unless people actively follow politics it means very little to them. A “fair” person would hold judgement on the expenses issue. A partisan would condemn and say tory at fault. There are less partisan people and so it has less detromental affect.
290. Labour to edge ahead. Or maybe not…
314. I have noticed on a wide variety of blogs various references to:
“Same old sleazy Tories”
A bit of astroturfing?? The BBC was doing its bit in return for its license renewal also, i am not sure how many times the Today show could use the word ’sleaze’ in a single show, if they had a ’sleaze box’ requiring them to stick a £1 in every time the word was mentioned, it would have bankrupted half the bbc.
289 - take up gambling. That’ll solve the problem quickly.
306. Fair point. But I now wonder if the Asian economic bloc constitutes such a mighty entity in its own right, it is therefore able to shrug off slowdowns in the west - simply because it can import/export everything it needs, within its own “borders”.
Of course a recession in America will have an effect. But gone are the days when the USA constituted 50% of the world economy, as it did in the 40s and 50s, I believe.
It’s now - what - 25%? 20%? And Europe is another 15%? (these are wild, slightly drunken guesses, please don’t Googleishly upbraid me)
IMHO China, India, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Indochina, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, etc etc etc can now trade with each other in terms of finished goods and commodities to such an extent they may be relatively impervious to troubles further west.
This is just a notion. I could be wrong. I am certainly leaving my packing very late.
Sawadee!
315, very decisive.
You are Gordon Brown, and I claim my tax credit, having appropriately and neatly filled out the simply 231 page submission form in English, Urdu and binary.
265. But Limbaugh and O’Reilly are right-wingers who slag off other channels. Andrew Marr is a centre-left guy who says his own organisation is biased. The BBC is editorially independent, but it can still have a subconscious bias. It’s the bias that Marr said - a cultural liberal one. I don’t think people at the BBC set out at the beginning of the day and say “right, how can we twist this to the left’s advantage”, but they are inately prone to be more receptive to liberal arguments and less receptive to conservative ones, which does affect their judgement calls sometimes. There are other biases too - as all journalists, they hate any body that uses spin men to run them around, which was part of the reason they became viscerally anti-Labour under Blair.
In the US, I think that natural bias does exist in some of the mainstream channels, but sometimes there is overcompensation under the accusation sometimes as they are ultimately in a competitive private market. Hence decisions like sacking Donahue because he was anti-Iraq and they were worried they didn’t seem patriotic. Or all the channels employing right-wing military generals to analyse the war in Iraq. Or employing ex-Republicans like Morning Joe or Pat Buchanan.
reverse psychology - your doin it rong
‘Number Ten were dismissing claims this morning that the party whips
are going round saying: “If we lose the vote on Wednesday, you will
have a new Prime Minister on Thursday.”‘
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
309 Yes. There is no mileage for either side in this. Everyone knows there are loads of MPs on all sides abusing the system to a greater or lesser degree.
311 - i don’t get it. Isn’t the conventional wisdom that Brown should have gone for the election (politically, putting constitutional complaints to one side).
So surely it should be those who advised “no” who are keeping their heads down?
322
This is whaT cAMERON HAD TO SAY ON EXPENSES TODAY. cLIP FROM gmtv
http://www.gm.tv/index.cfm?articleid=24657&iframe=roo&channel=GMTV%20Highlights&clipid=1441_gmtv_2024
304 - That would be miles out of line with stockmarkets and growth forecasts. Asia will grow faster than Europe/America (which may contract) but the slowdown from recent fast rates will be MUCH sharper. It would be astonishing if the decoupling you suggest were to materialise.
318. I heard 10%.
321 - Yep. I was struggling to understand that one
I think you left out the bit about the new PM being Miliband though…
290 “Nannygate” and the MEP stuff has probably come too late to affect the Populus poll, in which case I expect their findings to follow the recent ICM poll and maintain or exceed their reported Tory lead last month. I think most people are probably more exercised by the price of petrol seemingly rising every time they fill up, rather than by the basis on which Caroline Spellman’s Secretary/Nanny was remunerated 11 years ago.
The real action will take place in the Autumn as the UK economy plunges into recession, inflation continues to rise apace and tens of thousands lose their jobs and their homes. I expect Tory leads of 20%+ to then become the norm and the spread-betting markets will finally catch up with Public opinion. It’s going to get tough folks, very tough indeed.
Will Gordon survive what lies ahead? That really depends on whether any of his supposed successors possess the required bottle.
@323:
Conventional wisdom is frequently neither.
Brown’s mistake was in allowing the /speculation/ to run widerife until it had taken on a life of its own.
Worst attempt to wrongfoot the Tories ever.
324 - I like the way that Cameron always talks about himself as “a member of the public”
320. You might be right about a slight liberal cultural bias, but surely that would favour the metropolitan Cameron over the presbyterian Brown.
323. Brown should have never ramped up expectations or denied he was influenced by the polls, or gone to Iraq during the conservative party conference. No was the right call, it was what happened before he made that call that ruined him, in my view.
Please no more ‘…gates’ unless truly worthy of the epithet. ‘Nannygate’ is not worthy of the title. ‘Nannygate’ is just another Tory politician on the make - nothing new - nothing earth shattering. ‘Nannygate’ will only be relevant if there are lots of other ‘Tories on the make stories’ to follow it up.
Watergate was a truly staggering scandal. A President of the USA was so paranoid and corrupt that he was willing to organise illegal break ins to his opponent’s headquarters.
Now, I think it should be accepted wisdom that unless a scandal is of that kind of magnitude, it is unworthy of the ‘…gate’ suffix.
322 - That’s they key. People hear Tory MPs and MEPs have been at it but they assume all parties’ MPs are at it. You can see why Labour and Lib Dem MPs feel aggrieved about this. There have been tales of others “playing the system” with the John Lewis list etc but the ones who are in it up to their necks in terms of finding it hard to prove a link between what they claimed and what they were allowed to claim (Conway, Chichester, Spellman) have one thing in common. But there you are - life ain’t fair and it will just hurt confidence in MPs generally rather than the Tories in particular.
332 - Yes, putting “gate” after every minor scandal is a bit annoying and rather unoriginal. Now, if instead of “Nanny-gate” they had dubbed the Spellman affair “Cow & Gate”, I would have forgiven them.
332 - Could we go one step further? Watergate was a proper noun (the name of a complex). Could we eliminate the -gate suffix completely? All it shows is a lazy journalist who hasn’t had the brains to think up a distinctive name.
318. Good guess on today’s US, but you’re out on others:
1950:
USA 27%
USSR 10%
UK 7%
Germany 5%
Today:
USA 25%
EU 31%
EU plus Norway, Switzerland, Finland etc 33%
Japan 8%
China 6%
Canada 3%
Brazil 2%
Russia 2%
336. Ignore the 1950 figures, they’re PPP.
325. Yes, things are looking pretty disastrous in China.
From the Economist Intelligence Unit:
“The EIU expects real Chinese GDP growth in 2008 of 9.6%, less than the 11.9% expansion recorded in 2007, owing to the weaker outlook for net exports. Growth will slow further, to 9%, in 2009.”
Jesus. How will they cope?!
I can’t see why Labour and LibDem MPs feel aggrieved at all. They should think themselves lucky that the press is only interested in the Tories at the moment.
Surely you don’t seriously think that there aren’t “misdemeanours” present within all parties. You don’t think that Conservative MEPs are the only ones exploiting the extremely lax EU expenses system? You don’t think that Conservative MPs are the only ones who have used expenses to pay people for work of limited extent?
The difference at the moment is that Cameron is calling for transparency and has shown a willingness to sack people who have overstepped the mark. So the press are going where the information is readily available and there’s a good chance of quick “results”.
I never thought anything of the connection between Kirsty Wark and Alan Clements and the McConnells. As they have been close friends for more than 20 years, it wouldn’t surprise me that they holiday together and I have seen Kirsty WArk forensically dissect the arguments of New Labour ministers, especially those who spout anti-Scottish rhetoric.
I have always thought Nick Robinson was no lover of Blair or Brown and New Labour but until last week hadnt realised he was chairman of the (English) Young Conservatives. I don’t know if Conservative Forward or whatever the new lot are called has separate organisations in England and Scotland but the YCs did in the 1970s and 1980s when I was a Constituency and Area Chairman.
I know Adam Boulton’s wife was a big noise in the New Labour kitchen cabinet but I rather think AB is now more pro DC than GB and certainly watching him, Nick Robinson and Tom Bradby of ITV taking turns to embarrass Brown recently during one of his foreign press conferences must have made it a very interesting flight home
340. The problem with Nick Robinson is his gullibility, he seems to have been taken in many times by No10, same with his colleague John Piniar.
339(con) - and if Labour MPs are so annoyed by being tarred with the “all the same” brush, why is there a steady stream of them available to step forward and publically report any relatively insignificant misdemenour to the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner at the first opportunity?
331. It does now, I think, once they found out GB wasn’t their great social democratic hope. But it also causes bias against the Conservative party as a whole.
331. It does now, I think, once they found out GB wasn’t their great social democratic hope. But it also causes bias against the Conservative party as a whole.
338 - You underestimate the impact of that sort of development Sean. These countries start from a much lower base so of course they grow much faster - their trend rate is higher by a factor of several. In that sense, it is a very different world.
But people make their investment, employment and spending decisions based on rational expectations of growth. So that sort of slow down in growth is likely to lead to a lot of business closures, unemployment, government shortfalls, massive falls in share prices (therefore pensions) and so on. So it’s a very serious situation in terms of dislocation even though growth continues.
340 - my favourite Adam Boulton moment was during the Afghan invasion when the US gave a press conference saying that US and UK troops were engaged in conflict, but Downing Street (where he was reporting from) were refusing to confirm or deny that any British troops were involved.
He was FUMING that we had to find out about the actions of British troops from the Americans.
342 I think that is the legacy of GB snubbing all of them in favour of Marr for the non election scoop.
BTW i see that Anne Widdicombe is regretting her decision to retire at the next election and is doing all she can to delay the date of that election
345. But doesn’t the very catch-up effect you speak of mean investors expect the economy to grow slightly slower each year as they get closer to the top anyway? In which case it would already be factored into decisions.
*340* even.
A Labour councillor in Ashfield has defected to the Liberal Democrats (where they have made big gains in recent local elections - becoming the largest group on the council).
So far, so boring - but she was Chairman of Ashfield CLP!
http://www.chad.co.uk/ashfieldnews/Ashfield-Labour-chairman-defects-to.4166302.jp
343. So you admit that the BBC is a conspiracy against Brown! I knew it!
I really don’t think any minute amount of supposed bias the BBC has is relevant to our political culture. People are capable of reviewing information critically themselves and are not going to blindly accept the BBC line. I also think some of the conservative monomania over the issue is a little counterproductive to their cause.
Last Labour was 29 with Populus, lowest I could find going back to 1987 looks to be 28 in 2004 with Populus/Newsoftheworld.
A 27 might grab the headlines.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 48%
Note - Gallup have moved from a five day to three day tracker.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107764/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Takes-Lead-Over-McCain-48-42.aspx
345. Derrrrrr. I got a gentlemantly B grade in my Economics A Level, I also did economics as part of my Philosophy degree. That may not make me Maynard Keynes but I do understand the basics of economic growth and GDP figures.
If you put a factory in a desert, where there was nothing but camels before, you get a growth rate of 7000% etc etc etc etc.
I was merely trying point out to you, unsuccessfully, that China is still growing at an exceptional rate, and, whatever you say, a slowdown from 11% to 9% is not “a very serious situation”.
A “slowdown” from 11% growth to 9% is barely a slowdown at all.
Moreover, as I was also saying, if you come to Asia you can just feel the growth all around. In the last few months I’ve been in Singapore, Indonesia, India, and Thailand, for extended periods.
These places do not “feel” economically brittle the way Britain feels right now. I accept that is very subjective, but it is what I sense.
337. Do you have the bald GDP figures for circa 1945? I’m sure I read somewhere that, just after the war, America constituted around 50% of the world’s production.
Perhaps not surprising, given that Europe and Japan were in ruins.
Today’s EU figure is interesting. 31%?! If only Europe could unite, it would be a powerful force!
Cameron Mile-Wide Parting News.
For his Spelmanbinding Nannygate Gruff speech today, Chameleon Dave had a shorter side cut with an 180 degree crimped front quiff doubling up the apparent thickness of the hair for the head-on shot, with an intricate weave both ways behind up to his crown. Verdict: great for the studio but don’t try windsurfing, Bullingdon Boy!
349 - You would expect the trend rate of GDP growth to slow slightly over time but not a couple of percent or more in a year. China is catching up with the west and is a huge economy simply in terms of number of people.
But it’s GDP per capita is barely a tenth of the USA’s still so it would take a good 30 years to catch up even at the explosive rate of the last few years so you wouldn’t expect trend growth to fall anywhere near so rapidly. Put another way, if they kept losing a couple of percent off growth, they would be down to America’s trend rate of growth by 2011 or so rather than 2040.
356 - This post would have been much improved without at least two of the three laborious nicknames. The last two, like David Cameron’s hair, are wearing too thin.
355 - Sure, but it isn’t a decoupling as you described it. The fragility is of a very different sort in that you can comfort yourself with still growing. But if you go from 11% to 9% that has very serious consequences in terms of bankruptcies, unemployment, share prices, government spending on roads, healthcare etc. Its an economic dislocation point - you seem to think 11% or 9% or 7% is all much of a muchness - that’s totally wrong.
I agree. I don’t think it affects things that much. The biggest effect will be on the “low info voter” who just catches the headlines. For these people, they don’t always hang around enough to find out the ins and outs of an allegation but leading on a “Tory sleaze” issue might influence their views of the party. It certainly would if there’s three or four stories about it.
Still it’s nothing compared to the propaganda poured out on FOX news, so it doesn’t upset me much any more.
Wage slave, I thought you were describing the thatched roof on the shed of his Oxfordshire home (assuming there is one)!
360 - yeah the argument always trotted out about the BBC is that “we don’t get a choice about paying for it”.
Personally i’d rather have a national broadcaster with a “cultural liberal bias”, but some balancing elements, than everyone watching the equivalent of Fox News which can be as consciously biassed as it likes just because it’s a commercial channel.
355. It’s hard to find figures for the world and the USA from the same source. Different sources might be using a different year’s dollar value, so you’d probably be comparing apples and oranges.
360. But Fox is a private company. So it can do no wrong.
Although slightly off-topic i’m very peed off with the whole BBC set-up at the moment because of the apparent complete lack of budgetary control due to feeling it has to “compete” with ITV. And i’m a big sports fan but the number of people across all its outlets that it sends to these big sporting events is just a joke.
361.
“I thought you were describing the thatched roof on the shed of his Oxfordshire home (assuming there is one)!”
Nah, there’s some form of activity going on under that one.
359. No, you’re talking bollocks, and hoping we won’t notice coz you are using buzzwords.
How can “trend growth” slow by a “couple of percent in a year” when, by definition, it is the perceived underlying growth potential of an economy? Judged longterm?
Here is the definition:
“Trend economic growth refers to the smooth path of long run output. Measuring the trend requires a very long-run series of macroeconomic data in order to identify the different stages of the cycle and derive average growth rates from peak to peak or trough to trough”
Therefore China’s slowing from 11% to 9% in one year has almost nothing to say about its trend growth, which will be judged by its performance over half a decade or more.
Why do you even mention it? And do you really belive that China’s growthrate slowing from 11% to 9% is gonna result in “very serious consequences in terms of bankruptcies, unemployment, share prices, government spending on roads, healthcare”
Really? You really think that? You seem to be a little dim. 9% or 11% - who cares? They are both strapping growth rates, which will soak up practically all the unemployment in China.
As of May 18th 2008, China’s unemployment rate for 2008 is expected to be 4%, as compared to 4.2% last year.
http://indexmundi.com/china/unemployment_rate.html
I think you are perhaps a little dim.
367. China is a pretty big place with a very very large subsistence based peasantry, are you sure those unemployment numbers can be trusted?
How does China calculate its unemployment rate?
358.
Point taken, though my take on the Bullingdon Club is less to do with the toff link and more to do with the same continuum of effete narcissism which underpinned the Ugly Rumours.
SeanT,
Found it! USA GDP in 1950 was 27.2%. European countries outside the Eastern bloc total 26.2%. USSR was 9.5%
If you’re interested. East Asia in 2003 was 36.3%.
369.
“How does China calculate its unemployment rate?”
Rings an Indian call centre for an answer?
If China’s unemployment rate really was any way equivalent in calculation to those in Western economies then they would have no hope of sustaining their growth levels, surely. Serious shortages in the jobs market.
363. Here’s one thinker who also believes the American share of the world economy was in the vicinity of my suggestion:
“US share of world GDP in 1945 is estimated to have been about 50%; this more than halved between 1945 and 1980.”
From:
http://www.theamericanscene.com/2008/05/07/a-post-american-world
An interesting graph there - it shows Europe, America and China all converging on around 20-25% of the world’s economy. Truly a tripolar world.
Of course China may soar past us, as they are on a steep upwards gradient and we are not (bouyed, let’s not forget, by an average IQ 7 points higher than in the West). This means Europe and the States will have to unite to see off the Yellow Peril; but we will be helped by the fact we have more superclever Jews than they do.
How many absurdly controversial remarks can I fit in one comment?
374 - As a male first born, i think i can detect the reason for their high IQs
“…..it shows Europe, America and China all converging…..” SeanT accepts Europe as a similar entity to China and America (USA).
Commented Sean ” Since I became a rich tax exile I am a European”
BTW You don’t have to stay in the same place to be a tax exile - get an address anywhere abroad, and a new accountant.
374. I’m using hard figures from the historical world economy dataset from Angus Maddison, which, along with the Penn dataset, is considered the leading authority on past GDP levels. The bloke’s spent virtually his entire career on computing these figures, so they’re pretty reliable. He doesn’t have world figures before 1950, but the USA’s 1945 figure is slightly higher than 1950 and Western Europe’s slightly lower, so it’s possible the US could have hit 30%. 50% seems way out on these figures.
Incidentally, everyone thought Japan and Germany would overtake the USA back in the early 80s. One study (by Gallup) analysing the wrongness of predictions reckons it was because of less entrepreneurial creativity in Japan and Germany. The East is very worried about this and both Singapore and China have sent research teams to American schools to figure how they can increase their creativity. Some feel their concentration on formal, factual learning and logical reasoning and argument may explain both their higher IQs, and their creative lacking. You could probably make a similar argument about Jews (or else it’s because Jews tend to be rich and send their kids to the best schools).
107 JackW - Thanks for your ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls and the other info you have posted today on the US political scene.
I have a series of bets with other PBers as well as on Spreadfair on the number of States Obama will win in November. I’m particularly taken with the spread bets, averaging a buy at 23 States since, rather like my buy of SNP at 8 seasts at the next GE, the downside appears tro be very limited - yes I know, famous last words, but that’s the way I see it and I’m therefore thinking of topping up.
Excluding DC, please would you confirm how many States, after taking account of the “toss-ups”, you currently have Obama as winning in your poll.
377. Also, if China democratises we won’t have to see them off. We can all trade happily with each other, improving wealth levels everywhere as we concentrate on Russia.
To the poster Adam Smith:
Please can you provide a valid email address with your post - this is a site rule.
Many thanks.
379 - As the Spartans would say, if. China’s combination of rapid economic growth and authoritarianism was last seen in pre-WW1 Russia. The most realistic prospects therefore seem to be:
a) more economic growth, more authoritarianism and a force for evil around the world; or
b) chaotic collapse, destabilising all Asia.
China democratising must be a poor third most likely option.
378 - PfP = I hope you caught my reply to stjohn yesterday outlining where states might go on a 55/45 and 60/40 split.
C4 News saying Labour whips are bringing MP’s back from foreign trips to vote on 42 days.
It’s looking like 1979 all over again….!
281. I think Germany pre-1918 must be a better similarity. Still, you never know, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan both democratised.
378 Thanks ukpaul, I missed that, but I’ll track you down using F + Control, a great tool on these long, long PB threads.
378 PfP, Daily Kos reporting that Obama will staff up in all 50states - the first time that has happened in a generation.
In case that helps with your assumptions.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/9/132612/5669/83/532819
385 - These two posts specifically -
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/06/08/are-the-lost-tory-voters-finally-returning/#comment-690423
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/06/08/are-the-lost-tory-voters-finally-returning/#comment-690427
377. A bit of Googling shows many figures citing a 1945 US share of world output around 40-50%. I shan’t bore you with them. However, even if the 40-50% figure is true, it is very artificial - as America was overseeing a world where all its competitors, even its allies like Britain, were bankrupted and devastated by war.
The 1950 figure you cite is better - around 30%. America has been on a very slow decline since then. Naturally enough, given the revival of Europe and Japan, and the industrialisation of the 3rd world.
BTW the reason Ashkenazim Jews are so smart (average IQ 115) is because they went through an evolutionary pinchpoint: they were repressed and attacked and only the smartest survived; moreover their culture used to put a premium on breeding by the brightest - the learned and rabbinical types - rather than the goodlooking.
To marry a Talmudic scholar and have his seven kids was regarded as a great thing in the shtetl. And so IQs went up.
growth in China is about 9% - inflation is about 9%. The chinese central bank has increased interest rates continually to try and tame excess domestic demand but has dithered and delayed (not wanting to be party poopers).
I agree with Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the West is in the middle of a violent debt deflation caused by years of easy credit coming to an end and the East led by China are in an inflationary frothy growth period.
This is not nice - and it’s not at all clear that the rigid mindsets of central bankers are best placed to manage the situation.
386. Blimey, if the groundwork this time round makes Texas competitive in the future the GOP will have big, big problems.
Just hearing on Channel 4 News that Gordon Brown has ordered David Milliband back from Israel because they may lose the vote on 42 days. Gary Gibbons just described it as panic
383 - I think there should be a market up - will Anne Widdicombe’s vote save Gordon Brown?
MI5 just also issued a press release to confirm it is neutral on the subject, so much for the need for 42 days
391, just imagine if they lost the vote anyway, and Ireland votes no and Ed balls loses his seat in the immediate election Brown’s replacement calls…
*drifts off to fantasyland*
388. Can IQs really go up that high in a couple of centuries? I assume the less intelligent ones (back when the group as a whole were close to average intelligence) must have bred too.
386&387 Thank you both.
391
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/06/david-miliban-1.html
allegedly its got to do with coroners and juries but that sounds like bull to me.
Boulton and co has this
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/
391. Ooooooo…. Labour haven’t got it in the bag as they had been spinning.
395, IQ tests are artifically altered to maintain the normal curve. IQ doesn’t measure intelligence anyway. (Know a little about them, taken a few and learnt about them at university).
Channel 4 discusses the “bribes” Gordon Brown has offered Peter Robinson to get his 9 votes. A former anti-terrorism cop who is a Deputy Chief Constable now has made clear Sir Ian Blair doesnt speak for senior police officers
386 - Yes the Obama people seem to be working well with Dean’s team at the DNC to keep rolling out the 50 state strategy. Given the overall unpopularity of Bush and the GOP this is probably the time to do it.
383 looks like 1983 soon!
tee hee
383. Should scare a couple more rebels back on-side.
399. That’s true, but that means, by SeanT’s theory, Ashkenazi Jews must have gone up astonishingly fast. I might play about with some maths to see if its possible, and what sort of differential breeding ratio would be needed.
And IQ might be flawed, but it must at least approximate general intelligence factor “G”, surely?
404, IQ’s logical reasoning, whether spatial or linguistic. It’s useful, and if your job entails logic then it’s a good measure. But it has no element of social skills, emotional intelligence or leadership.
Maths is interesting for lots of reasons. There are Brazilian street kids who can do fantastic feats with betting odds in their heads but are innumerate, basically. Likewise, dyscalcula can be super-complicated to diagnose. Also, the Chinese teach surds (roots with numbers in front of them) in primary school, but they’re A-level in the UK. So, IQ can be affected (perhaps obviously) by environmental factors.
404. IQs certainly can go up very quickly. It’s called the Flynn Effect:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect
I have actually interviewed James Flynn, for the Guardian. He’s one of the world’d most respected psychometricians. He partly rejects the more controversial race-difference IQ theories of people like Charles Murray - though he doesn’t accuse them of bias, merely of misconstrual.
He also thinks IQ does measure something significant - something valuable in late capitalist information societies. Calling it “intelligence” is perhaps clumsy, and uselessly provocative.
391 “vote for 42 days or get Miliband by Thursday” says chief whip Geoff ‘Buff’Hoon
The responsible and grown up approach to national security. Jacqui “next leader” Smiff has played a blinder and everyone believes her…. errr
@404:
IQ is not necessarily correlated to g, but modern IQ test designers tend to use prinicipal component analysis to ensure that their tests are g-heavy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G_factor
Tests of cognitive ability derive most of their validity from the extent to which they measure g. If quantifiable measures of the performance of a task correlate highly with g, it is said to be g-loaded. Creators of IQ tests, whose goals are generally to create highly reliable and valid tests, have thus made their tests as g-loaded as possible. Historically, this has meant dampening the influence of group factors by testing as wide a range of mental tasks as possible. However, tests such as Raven’s Progressive Matrices are considered to be the most g-loaded in existence, even though Raven’s is quite homogeneous in the types of tasks comprising it.[3]
378 PfP. Presently McCain on 22 states. South Carolina flipped into his column after the SC Rasmussen poll.
It’s my intention to roll out my ARSE (BUTT) projections every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. You lucky people !!
409 looking forward to the BUTT!
When does it start?
397 - lol. It would be highly amusing if the terrorism bill got defeated because of some measure other than 42 days
“removing juries from inquests and changing coroners”
Sounds EVEN WORSE than 42 days - sounds pretty plausible that they could be having trouble with that one!
409 Further. By implication Obama nets 28 states plus DC.
397.MTF, it sounds like Diane Abbot was correct when she said last week that the government could still lose this vote despite the media reporting that it was safely in the bag. IIRC Benedict Brogan was about one of the only ones who urged caution about that being the case.
400.Easterross, but did they mention if the DUP will definitely vote with the government on 42 days or is it still in the air?
410 Ave it. You wretched Watford oik !!
First published at post 107 this morning !!
406. He’s quite an outspoken critic of the Bell Curve though, isn’t he? Have you got your article anywhere, would be interesting to read.
As ever with Labour you need to look at the details to see the truly disgusting stuff they are trying to smuggle through parliament. The 42 days issue is so obviously stupid that there must be something else in the bill that is toxic (esp when they know 42 days will be defeated in the Lords anyway)
@406:
Sean, why is calling it ‘intelligence’ clumsy and provocative?
It’s a measure of the principal component that’s correlated with all cognitive abilities. Intelligence is perhaps the *best* word for it.
107 hehe ok i have seen it now.
Not got McCain ahead?
In addition to the previous figures these are my calculations as regards 50/50 and McCain majorities.
A 50/50 Vote ——————-
Obama states being - Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), New York (31), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), DC (3), Delaware (3), Illinois (21), Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), California (55), Washington (11), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5)
257 EV - 21 states & DC
McCain states being - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Texas (34), Alabama (9), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Arizona (10), Utah (5), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Alaska (3) Montana (3), North Carolina (15), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), Florida (27), Missouri (11), Michigan (17), Indiana (11),
261 EV - 28 states
Tossup – Ohio (20)
McCain 55/Obama 45 ——————-
States switching - Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Nevada, Ohio (from toss up)
McCain 310 EV - 33 states
Obama 228 - 17 states & DC
McCain 60/Obama 40 ——————-
States switching - Connecticut, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Jersey
McCain 370 EV - 38 states
Obama 168 - 17 states & DC
389 et al
Both China and India are using there huge $ reserves to subsidise oil prices to keep the workers happy. And also the Philipines and many other FE countries.
When they do try to raise prices - as long term economics insists they will have to - it’s going to be very painful.
China has denied it will do it: it certainly will not before the Olymics. The costs are staggering $55 billion pa and rising.
Oil consumption will drop heavily when it does happen imo.
418 Ave it. Not yet !! …. but who knows, who’d have thought a year ago we would have had the Conservatives rampant all over my ARSE !!
411 and 413 Re juries and coroners all 59 Scots MPs including GB, DB etc should be prevented from voting on those sections since they have no relevance to Scotland! The West Lothian question again.
No mention other than lots of money for projects etc. Sinn Fein called for Mrs Robinson’s resignation over the homophobic remarks at the weekend. Gordon Brown probably promising the DUP a bill to abolish Homosexuality
Jack W, I’m afraid to ask but just how big is your arse?!!! Do you need to use wholesale sized air freshener when you have been to the lavatory?
422 - GB is probably offering concessions to Bob Spink by now. Perhaps a Cabinet position?
415. It was a tiny piece, here it is FWIW:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2004/aug/26/features11.g2
I did a much more invovled analysis of the whole “IQ wars” in the Spectator:
http://tinyurl.com/3r94gp
I used to be mildly obsessed with this subject. I think partly because I love taunting lefties and making them upset - and that is so easy with some of this data (and the data is inarguable, whatever they say).
However I think I’ve now - belatedly! - grown out of this phase. I still despise lefties, of course, like any sensible person - but waving upsetting facts in their faces like a Sicilian husband waving the blood-soaked bridal sheet to the relatives is maybe not the most mature way to conduct debate.
That’s why - Martin Coxall! - I think using the word “intelligence” can be needlessly provocative. For some reason people attach a moral worth to “intelligence” which they don’t to “height”.
e.g. Saying a Dutchman is taller, on average, than a Chinaman, upsets no one. By contrast, saying a Jew is smarter, on average, than a Kenyan, gets everyone EXTREMELY agitated.
And I can kinda understand why, in a way I didn’t before. Do we need these divisions and arguments? I’m not sure. So these days I abjure the debate, generally.
You are younger than me. You may feel differently…
For all scenarios then my calculations come up with (at the moment) -
Obama 60, McCain 40:O 384EV, M 154EV:O 32 states & DC, M 18 states
Obama 55, McCain 45:O 360EV, M 178EV:O 28 states & DC, M 22 state
Obama 50, McCain 50:O 257EV, M 261EV:O 21 states & DC, M 28 state
Obama 45, McCain 55:O 228EV, M 310EV:O 17 states & DC, M 33 state
Obama 40, McCain 60:O 168EV, M 370EV:O 12 states & DC, M 38 state
EV = electoral votes, Ohio unallocated at 50/50.
423 Easterross. The ARSE is all seeing, all knowing, all wind !!
JackW & ukpaul - Thank you for the detailed facts and figures. Interestingly, both of you had Obama winning 28 States, excl DC, and with a difference of just 3 in terms of EVs, i.e. 357 vs 360. I believe, however, that ukpaul’s numbers were by way of illustration rather than his forecast.
428 - PfP - My figures for that relate to a 10% Obama victory which is possible but, as things stand at the moment, the 50/50 is probably where we stand.
427 Jack W I kind of thought that was the case. Just as I was typing my ditty the sky went very black and I did wonder if it was your omnipotent ARSE hovering overhead hoovering up data as it went by
C4 dispatches on now. Popcorn ready.
it’s going to be good.
431 - Repeating all the incredibly difficult crises that he had to go through.
431. How on earth did he get all those Cabinet Ministers to take part in what is going to be a “Gordon is a train crash in slow motion” type of programme. I suspect they expected something else entirely…
156 - If English are not happy about the way they are governed post devolution, then it is within their powers to do something about it - but to suggest that they should have had the power to vote on the Scottish/Welsh settlements is just wrong.
The way in which Scotland/Wales is governed is a matter for their people alone, and can not be vetoed from outside. Ditto England.
we like Jack’s BUTT and we cannot lie…
When were all these interviews with Cabinet ministers done for this Rawnsley programme? All seems very strange unless they think he’s on his way out, isn’t it?
Snap
436
that’s exactly what i thought
1-0 Netherlands. Ruud looked well offside to me though.
433 excellent question gaz. REmarkably poor judgement to have cooperated.
428 PfP. As I indicated I’ll be posting an updated projection three times a week. It’s pretty early days but IMO Obama has the edge presently.
I’m particularly taken by the number of Bush states that McCain is presently struggling in and has to shore up to reach 270 - Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina. And then there’s the southern states with big AA electorates.
436 - Life is weird, we have a political obituary for a PM still in office and the BBC bigging up Lady T.
436/438. Maybe they got taken in, in a ‘Brass Eye’ way. I wonder what he has been able to tease out of them by using very soft interviewing..
442. I am going to wake up in a shower and find out its 1997 again…
2-0. No doubt about that one!
434&436.All hands on deck because the ship is sinking - smile, talk up the captain’s abilities, and for god’s don’t look like your are panicking!
This is always a very interesting site for US elections.
http://presidentelect.org/index.html
Killer question from Mariella!!!!
Italy = LDs
Cabinet ministers rather undermining Gordon’s story about never intending to have an election.
wow where is this going. they’re talking like he’s already gone!
149 Holland in Orange = LibDems
Italy in blue = Watford Conservatives
Blears smilinh. Whatta shock
Habeas Corpus is more important than the Labour Party, much more important than Brown.
we led in the marginals by six points. We’d have been the biggest party at the very worst.
452 tee hee mark senior = humour merchant
Ten Brown Bottles lol. And they say the Tories don’t do stunts
Nick Brown won’t be very popular with his namesake…
This is actually an obituary. Any cabinet members who said no?
HAS GORDON BROWN RESIGNED?
Populous/ Times:
Con 45
Lab 25
LD 20
Labour have lost 40% of their vote.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4100100.ece
Lol the deputy chief whip just criticized the pm! A whip!
461 - Oh my god, 460 was a joke, but maybe not a funny one.
Ouch ouch ouch
this is so damning for Brown….
thanks jsfl well done cameron
Darling regrets the autumn statement, is today the Ides of March?
Is the Italian goalie really called Buffoon?
NL are tonking them ….
461. WOW 20%!!!!!
bliney this really is now that’s what I call a Labour diaster vol 25
isn’t Populus usually the worst for the Conservatives?
461. That is brutal for Labour. I think the carphone warehouse will be selling another phone tomorrow.
I think there is going to be a clip at the end of this programme showing Brown saying he has resigned. Only plausible explanation.
472 -
jack straw you backstabbing traitor
469 - “WOW 20%!!!!!”
I presume your excitement is about the LD figure not the Tory lead!
lol @ the red carpet.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 43.8% .. Lab 27.2% .. LibDem 19% .. Others 10%
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 385 seats .. Lab 185 .. LibDem 48 .. Others 32.
Con majority of 120.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
476 tee hee
CON maj 500 minimum!
Mark Senior = Con
straw really is the vicar of bray
477 - Indeed and isn’t Rawnsley a leftie? This is one hell of a hatchet job.
480 - Jacqui Smith is the Vicar of Dibley.
Unlucky for the Conservatives. He’s just doing too badly to stay on. Anyone else think that the polls now are reflecting the British public saying that he has to go now. It’s inconceivable that Labour won’t get quite a large boost when he goes. They’ll still have a lead but i reckon up to 10% of the lead at the moment consists of voters telling Gordon to go.
482 only fatter and not as credible
Fromwhat I can see David Cameron has done the treble with Populus.
Highest Conservative share
Biggest Conservative Lead
Lowest Labour share
In fact this would be a good time for the Conservatives to rapidly announce a load of rather unpopular future policies.
Just seen the poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday so even with the MEP and Spelman furores Cameron has a 20 point lead. If this doesn’t make Labour realise that they are well and truly screwed nothing will.
483 I know there were some polls recently that said other Labour members would be more unpopular than Brown but i cant reconcile those.
If Brown was deposed tomorrow Labour would surely recover 5% ata minimum
Meat and Drink for Cameron for PMQ’s this is.
he can break down in tears? What, routinely?
Actually it is the biggest lead (I think) of any party in the realtively short history of Populus (2002?). So Cameron has done the quadruple!
489 - I think in that case it would be a good day to go with 6 Statesmanlike questions to give him a bit of a boost.
434. I agree - if there was a new constitutional settlement affecting only Scotland or only Wales, then only those in Scotland or Wales should vote on it. But if there is a new constitutional settlement that affects the whole of Britain, than the whole of Britain should vote on it. The devolution system proposed by Labour affected everyone, so it falls under the latter scenario.
Yet another qualification this seems to be the highest vote share that any party has achieved as well under Populus.
Lowest major party share as well.
nick brown looking for badgers in cuba?
Nick Brown really won’t be popular in the bunker!
Is this Nick Brown’s revenge for not being made chief whip?
Based on my own calculations and this poll:
CON 411
LAB 171
LIB 38
conservative majority 172
495. Truly record breaking in Populus terms then……
Lol. Jacqui Smith agreeing he’s a micromanager.
Jack Straw just said that Gordon is a ditherer.
Rawnsley, journalist of the year? just for the pure skill of getting all those very senior government and party members to put the boot in, and them not realising it.
Straw is on manoeuvres
what a misjudgement for nick brown to comment. I will try my utmost to sack the deputy chief whip and jack straw who is slaggkng him as a ditherer right now
rawndley us calling him a mad insomniac
shami = heroine
476. The LD position is in many ways as bad as Labour. they are getting no significant benefit from the Labour slide. Wonder how they will do in Henley……..
Interesting. Jacqui Smith said that the “terrorist attacks” taught her that the threat was very real. Bit surprising that a car crashing into a lamp post taught her something that 7/7 didn’t, but there we are.
Miliband conspiciuous by his absence
461. Ho ho so much for the BBC’s attempt to help Labour out. Crick et al. better start updating their CVs.
507 - “The LD position is in many ways as bad as Labour”
No.
PADDY POWER
Dick Morris:
“Hillary’s suspension of her campaign, and her omission of any release of her delegates, makes her a factor for Obama to consider for the next three months until the Democratic nomination is officially and finally his. Absent an actual statement to her delegates urging them to vote for Obama on the first ballot, Hillary’s candidacy cannot be said to have ended.”
Is that why Paddy did not pay yet for
” When will Hillary Withdraw?
After Montana/Sth Dakota Primaries but before National Democratic Convention @ 1 - 3″
I asked them saturday. Not answer yet!!!
LOL the moral compass
476. It is interesting that the LDs are completely flatlining. I wonder what will happen in henley…
blears never lets the mask slip does she. i reckon a breakdown beckons in a couple of years, followed by a daytime tv slot.
F***me sideways with a chilled parakeet. That’s a BIG ol’ lead. 20%!!
lol!
Can Brown hang on? Increasingly difficult to see how he can, and I’m not even watching this C4 “hatchet job” - (I would if I could!).
But if he goes I think Labour have to call an immediate election (or an election within weeks); democracy demands it - you simply can’t enforce a second unelected prime minister on the people. Surely even the most pigheaded leftie can see that.
But if they do call an election, even under a new leader they will lose, bigtime (and they lose Lisbon, too, BTW).
What’s the point? Lose now by 10-15% or lose in two years - probably by 15-25%? A difficult call to make. They are stuck between a very nasty rock and an even nastier hard place.
Perhaps Brown is just teasing us.. he’s simply ambitious enough to want to outdo Houdini.
Lol @ Darling. 10p “nothing to do with me Gov”.
darling says I knew it was a problem when I opened the books. Throws brown overboard
New thread - “Another day, another poll, another record Labour low”
nick brown who the hell made this guy a whip? That issue more than any other hurt us, labour’s deputy chief whip!
Was in Thame today (Henley). It was very quiet. I know it was the day after a hot weekend, Monday etc etc but I’ve never been to a by election with so little obvious sign that an election was happening. That said it was recycling day and there were plenty of Tory and LD leaflets to see in the clear recycling bags.
Thame Town Council has a a reasonable number of LDs (5 LD, 6 C, 1 Labour, 2 Ind I think) and yet there are very few Lib Dem posters.
More shocking was the change from LD orange diamonds (which were there but in the background) to a smiley faced poster of the LD candidate against a blue and green rural background. Looked like a Conservative poster to me.
There were several teams of Conservatives out delivering but I didn’t see an LD all day. That really is a first for me at a by election.
The above all comes with the usual health warning that I’m only one person on one day in one small town in the constituency and don’t pretend for a moment that my experience can be safely extrapolated.
Is this the shape of things to come?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/nottinghamshire/7445053.stm
Triple tonking them now…
Almost quadrupled them…
Re: The GMB union conference - first 6 of 35 Labour MP’s to lose funding are announced.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2329715.0.Union_punishes_MPs_for_contempt.php