Ireland votes No - so what happens now?
June 13th, 2008
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No has 53.7% with just 5 results left
With a joint statement expected from Merkel and Sarkozy this evening, what will be the next step for the EU after a comfortable win for the “No” camp in Ireland?
Only eight out of 38 constituencies declared have so far voted Yes, with a margin of just 4 votes in Carlow-Kilkenny.
Double Carpet
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What happens now is that Ireland gets pissed. It is a Friday night, after all.
Europe will produce the Plan B that they didnt have.
What happens now is either the Irish are asked to vote again until they get it right, or the ‘treaty’ will be imposed by the back door.
I imagine that the EU will now, cheat, manipulate, dissemble and generally behave in that same vaguely malign fashion they always lean towards.
Official result due at 16:15
Hague is calling for Brown toi come to Parliament on Monday and say what he is going to do. He cannot continue with ratifcation without a wipeout in the polls.
What happens now is what always happens. The Euro steamroller will just carry on regardless.
Want a Constitution? - No.
OK, how about a treaty? - No.
Alright then, a series of amendments to extisting treaties that amounts to exactly the same thing? - Thats OK, no-on will notice. Go on then.
Wow, what a dizzying few days in politics in the British Isles! The 42 days, Mr. Davis, and then Ireland. Who knows what the public will make of it all, but I surmised quite a while ago that an Irish rejection would seem to be the worst of all possible worlds for Brown, as well as the Lib Dems. Both had made a pledge for a vote on a reformed EU constitution, both broke that pledge with the thinnest of excuses, and both got nothing in return for their refusal to give the British a direct say in their destiny (thanks to the Irish). Only the Conservatives look as if they not only kept their word but also defended the right of the people to decide. Looked at another way, what could Labour or the Lib Dems be said to have gained from all this?
2. But a Plan B is very tricky this time. Irish pols saying “No way we will vote again.”
They can’t ratify without Ireland.
So they draw up an entirely new Treaty? That takes a while, then they run into a Tory government in the UK - and a guaranteed referendum No.
This really is paralysis.
I think a two-tier Europe is probably now inevitable, and Britain will not be in the core.
448 from previous
That might work for continental Europe but the bottom line is that most people in Britain feel absolutely no affinity for the EU - even thoise that don’t want to leave. The idea that British politicians could ever persuade the public that they should feel part of some greater Europe is just wishful thinking.
More and more peopel are now acepting that in fact the opposite is true, that membership of the EU at all is a bad thing for Britain. Hence the recent poll results that show that, if forced into a choice, people would rather leave entirely.
8- North West European Islands surely! (But then that also includes Iceland).
How about the Saxo-Celtic Islands…
What happens - the Germans say that Europe should proceed regardless, other Governments stumble on with ratification because they can’t adjust to it not happening. Sarkozy is harder to forecast: his PM has said the treaty dies but….
Reposted from previous…
440 - I’m here now!
My view is simple. Davis wanted his ego-trip (and to embarrass Cameron at the same time), but was too scared of losing. So the only way there could be a by-election was if the Lib Dems agreed not to oppose him on this issue.
It’s a shame, because Davis is no Liberal and his new found conversion to civil liberties is clearly part of his campaign to undermine the current leadership. Davis supported 28 days internment and his record on rights for gay people, for example, is dismal. There’s enough material on him to make a ‘proper’ by-election interesting.
Labour should fight this election and hard. They couldn’t fail to improve on their 12% in a two horse race and if they could get up to 30% or so then it would be seen as a big swing to the government and its tough stance on fighting terrorism and a severe embarrassment to an already fractious Tory party.
Well that’s my tuppence worth…
David Davis will be pleased that liberty is saved in Ireland.
Maybe he can, as a result, more easily achieve the same in the UK.
Today, there are a good many Englishmen, myself included, being proud of their Irish grandmother and her Irish blood.
Every true Englishman should now go out and buy an Irishman a drink and buy some Irish goods. It is time, I think to buy that Dell with the 4 core Athlon processor and down some Guiness.
Sky still suggesting that labour won’t bother standing a candidate, I hope they are right because they will be slaughtered over a decision like that. Go on Gordon, you know you want to…
Dublin North-Central
Yes 50.6%
No 49.4%
[Results Received: 39 of 43]
Yes 46.39% (672,000)
No 53.61% (776,603)
13
Absolute rubbish. It is Davis who has been driving the civil liberties agenda in the Tory party since Howard was in charge. It was he who forced through their policies opposing ID cards and 42 day detention.
You are right on one thing. Labour should stand. They would be slaughtered.
Richard Corbett just interviewed on 5 Live. He states that it is now all about finding a solution to the Irish voters problems and to press ahead with ratification.
When will they get the joke? Nobody wants anything to do with the corrupt EU, get lost Corbett!
15 - Well, as Michael John O’Reilly, I shall be leaving my wallet firmly at home for next week’s pbc festivity.
Hope one result of this vote is we lose the silly longwinded situation where one country does this another does that, it takes years, lawyers make millions and in the end nothing happens.
It’s a bad expenseive joke. The rest of the world must think we’re useless. It’s entirely reasonable for the EU to change. But let’s all have a vote, get it out of the way on one day. One man one vote. Two thirds majority to change the consitution. Simple, democratic, cheap.
Might actually get them to write a simple document worth voting Yes on. Who knows.
19. solution to ireland’s problems - free Guinness for all. Will the EU pay for that?
14 I’m home now but off to Brighton Bar Billiards Presentation Night and Dinner/Dance later . Nice to see pretty much unanimous shooting down by all the LibDems on here of yp’s pathetic attempts at sh1t stirring earlier .
19 - Maybe they should draft in Ronnie Corbett instead…
9. Sean T
God that would be great!
Well done the paddies.
Let’s buy some popcorn and sit back to watch Brown squirm.
21
No.
We do not live in a country called Europe and should not accept anything that seeks to enforce a single governmental decision upon us.
You only think these things are silly because you support the EU project of ever closer union. For the majority of Britons who do not, your solution is simply unacceptable.
Has anyone yet argued that the Irish No vote means they wanted “More Europe?”
From an American perspective (and maybe this is no different from a British perspective), the actions of Davis do seem to be rather bizarre. After all, he was elected by the people of his constituency to do their business at Westminster, not to resign and call them back to the polls when a party other than his own does something he doesn’t like. If I were one of his constituents, I would be tempted to vote for someone else, anyone else, just to spank him for needlessly compelling me to make an extra trip to the voting booth. Maybe this will just end up being a curiosity of political history and have no real consequences one way or another for the standing of the parties, but who can say?
What happens now?
The EU admits it has no public support, voluntarily suspends operations, dissolves itself of the European Commission, Parliament and Council of Minsters. Abolishes the ECJ/ECHR and repeals all the international treaties agreed over the last 20 years. Agrees to prosecute all those who’ve had their fingers in the till over the last few decades. Ceremoniously dynamites the ugly edifices of EU architecture in Strasbourg and Brussels. And Jacques Delors and Giscard D’estaing commit Hari-Kari.
Then we go back to fully sovereign independent nation states and the Council of Europe again.
Hmm….
I’m with seanT here. The people have spoken, and spoken, and spoken. Even the LibDem who leads one of the blocs in the European Parliament has admitted this. (Shame on Clegg, btw. What a dumb, dumb move. And one that should have led to his downfall.)
Perhaps I’m nieve, but I think this could lead to a more accountable, less beauracratic, better Europe…
We shall see…
18. he supports the death penalty and 28 day detention, among other things, and opposes gay rights. You cannot possibly try to spin that he is a champion of civil liberties.
15 - “Every true Englishman should now go out and buy an Irishman a drink”
Right then - I’m happy to post up my mobile number and which London watering holes I expect to be in at various stages of the evening for anyone inspired by this post
28: wonderful! So you’d elminate the 1992 ’single market legislation’. There’d be a lot of businesses (mine included) who would not thank you for that.
25: I don’t think Jonathan’s suggestion is completely unreasonable. It is, for a start, democratic.
If every country voted to join such a super-state, that’d be fine. It’s just not likely.
26 - “Has anyone yet argued that the Irish No vote means they wanted “More Europe?””
No but I really dont think there’s much proper understanding of why Ireland voted no here in Britain. Mostly because they felt they didnt understand it and felt bullied and pressured by elites and European politicians into voting yes. After that comes the loss of a commissioner and reduced voting rights in the Council of Ministers. Finally a whole raft of idiotic nonsense that had nothing to do with Lisbon (conscription to a European army in Ireland, the death penalty, abortion, locking up children).
It was not euroscepticism as we know it.
I’m relaxed about events in Ireland. It’s a democracy and a democratic decision has been taken. We should have had the same opportunity but no matter now. The Lisbon Treaty is dead.
As to the future, I think there is so much more important for Europe to be dealing with than constitutions and treaties. The new economic reality of dearer energy, raw materials and credit will force European Governments into some difficult decisions.
Re: 18 - Yet Davis had to speak in the HoC in support of ID cards while Howard was leader. If Davis had been the man of principle he now cliams to be, he would have resigned from Michael Howard’s Shadow Cabinet but he did not.
Until I hear him explain that, I will be less than convinced by his conversion to “champion of civil liberties”.
34. I think of the Irish as having a much better understanding of Europe in general, and have really engaged with it a lot more. We seem incapable of having a reasonable debate about it without experiencing the sort of xenophobic bile spewed forth by seanT & co.
30 Perhaps he judges issues on their merits.
27. Under normal circumstances I would agree with you, but a politician who acts out of belief rather than for getting the next pay cheque or expenses fiddle, has become a curiosity in the UK.
35 - “The Lisbon Treaty is dead.”
Very previous. I’d put money on it eventually coming into effect if anyone offered me evens right now. Not much obviously because I’m just making a point but right now I think the Nice / concessions model has to be the most likely route. The problem is what concessions? They cant change the text so have to be meaningless statements about neutrality, abortion, conscription, whatever you’re having.
Cork South-West
Yes 44.43%
No 55.57%
[Results Received: 40 of 43]
Yes 46.35% (686,235)
No 53.65% (794,409)
30 - What “gay rights” has he opposed?
35. He may not be a true champion of civil liberties, but at least by winning his safe seat back, he will prove he is a champion of the people.
Cameron visiting Howden will prove that the whole party is as one on the issue, with absolutely no split or clash of egos.
and whether Lab and LD put up a candidate or not, the other parties will be proven to be incompetent, unpopular, and directionless.
36 - there was very little xenophobia in the debate (except when Turkey came up) but loads and loads of ignorance and absurdities. Different problems. And, though happy with the no vote, I have to say the no campaign was at the bottom of most of the worst rubbish.
Cork North-West
Yes 46.12%
No 53.88%
[Results Received: 41 of 43]
Yes 46.34% (702,488)
No 53.66% (813,400)
35
Very sensibly he spoke for them whilst trying to persuade Howard to change his mind. It is clear that Davis opposed them then and now. If the result of his actions was, as it was, that Tory policy was changed to one of opposition then I think he did the right thing.
Stodge/Ed” etc. Davis had to speak in the HoC in support of ID cards while Howard was leader”
Give over. You lot are *looking* for reasons to doubt his sincerity.
Why not just back him, if you are Liberals? Tell you know, if it was Frank Field or er… Vince Cable doing the same, I wouldn’t hesistate.
It was Davis who forced Howard to be *neutral* on ID cards in the 2005 election manifesto. No mean feat, I can tell you. Howard is one hardline cookie - he almost hasn’t changed a view in years.
It was also Davis who stood down in 2003 to give Howard a clear run - for the sake of the Tory party *surviving*. Had he created a split in the Tory party in 2004/2005, it’d potentially been wiped out in 2005 and achieved nothing. You could see Davis was uncomfortable with the ID card party and he doesn’t like 28 days either.
Moreover, Davis is a consistent supporter of civil liberties. And civil liberties are *not* the same as how you agree sentences of justice should be handed down once found guilty.
I don’t agree with Davis on the death penalty. But the two positions aren’t incompatible.
Not at all.
37. perhaps so. I’m sure he’ll have plenty of chance to outline his reasons why 28 days was such a great idea but 42 days is a matter for resignation. etc.
25 Well it’s a fact the EU exists it has a role to play and it should have democratic accountabily. The current method is crazy and leaves power in the claws of the technocrats. What a monumental waste of time and money. Someone should be fired for this.
If we can clarify the limits of the EU’s purpose and fully draw the dividing line from the national govt, surely we can see a future where changes are made to the EU on the basis of one man, one vote.
At the moment the EU is totally opaque. It needs to rengage with the people. This is one way to do it. One election, one day. Done and dusted in 24hrs. It could be great. Yes or No, then move on. At present if a chicken in Luxumbourg says No, it’s enough to block things.
IMO If it EU doesn’t learn to communicate direct to the voters it will die.
Cork East
Yes 43.04%
No 56.96%
[Results Received: 42 of 43]
Yes 46.25% (720,665)
No 53.75% (837,452)
32. Oh dear
Sense of humour failure methinks!!
Anyway, it was the 1985 Single European Act which set up the single market.
1992 was Maastrict.
According to eureferendum, the ever delightful sewer-dwelling toad-rat, sorry Lib Dem MEP Andrew Duff, has apparently issued his reaction to the Irish vote.
“Andrew Duff, Lib-Dem leader says, “we cannot accept this result”.”
Well that is a surprise, coming from the same “man” who said, of his own countrymen, “the English must be defeated”.
At least there’s no shilly shallying around. “We cannot accept this result”. Simple as that. Nice one Andrew.
Can some Lib Dem on here, please tell me why this odious, odious cretin is still allowed the Lib Dem whip? He is, by his own words, a traitor and an anti-democrat.
Why do you guys not disown him?
36 - Possibly, although I was not terribly impressed by the standard of debate when I was over there recently. It amounted to concerns over losing their Commissioner and expanded majority voting (with implications for agricultural subsidies). There was very little about whether it would lead to better or worse policy.
Ironically, a British listener may have well have become less anti-EU listening to the “No” campaign - a lot of it was about the balance shifting towards large countries like the UK (as the veto and automatic Commissioner is much more valuable to small countries like Ireland as their voting weight is minimal).
To my mind the EU has no purpose. I agree entirely that it may die. I look forward to the day that happens. I would do nothing to prolong its agony.
48. “At the moment the EU is totally opaque. It needs to rengage with the people. This is one way to do it. One election, one day. Done and dusted in 24hrs. It could be great. Yes or No, then move on.”
The problem with that, Jonathan, is that it *assumes* an electoral mandate is permenant.
It isn’t.
Most democracies have general elections every 3,4,5 years to pass judgement on their governments and the policies they’ve enacted.
Where is the mechanism for that in Europe?
That also assumes that the development of the EU will be *static* whereas we move know it evolves and develops all the time - generally towards closer union.
Whatever “mandate” it has at one period of time, applies to the conditions and situation prevailing at the time.
It is not permenant and cannot be taken as a tacit endorsement of every possible act the EU takes in future.
re 8 yes indeed Mike must be getting quite frustrated on his Costa.
52 - “Ironically, a British listener may have well have become less anti-EU listening to the “No” campaign - a lot of it was about the balance shifting towards large countries like the UK”
Indeed, Libertas would probably sign up if Ireland got its commissioner back and restored voting share in the Council. Not things that would make most eurosceptics here happy at all or indeed much of a principled stand against the EU project. Euroscpetics here and no voters in Ireland are both happy about today’s result but for very different reasons and actually have very little in common. Not surprising when you remember Ireland voted for Maastricht and the single currency enthusiastically.
50 - The SEA came into force progressively with the completion of the single internal market in 1992 - I think that’s Robert’s point. As a businessman, SEA would be far more important to him and the key aspects came into force in 1992.
51 - we usually ignore what he says. He’s renowned as a Euro bore so sending him off to Brussels got him out of the way where he can jabber nonsense that no-one (until now) has ever taken seriously…
Come on Laoighis Offaly, we’re waiting for you!
BBC: 15min until the final result.
56 - Indeed. Not a lot of UK eurosceptics would have massive sympathy for the reasoning of the Irish farming lobby and Senn Fein.
The subtler eurosceptic point, however, is that the differences in the nature of the debate show the more fundamental difficulties with integration. That is not an unreasonable point.
51. Is there any way on earth we could turf this toe-rag out of power?
Which “consitutency” does he represent?
As he’s probably No. 1 on the LibDem list, as there is no prospect of voting him out.
Bet he has some dirty expenses lying around. I’d get OpenEurope on his ass, find a scandal and force him to resign.
There’s bound to be one.
Is anyone else extremely tired of SeanT’s labelling of people as ‘traitors’?
61 - “The subtler eurosceptic point, however, is that the differences in the nature of the debate show the more fundamental difficulties with integration. That is not an unreasonable point.”
Not unreasonable against the whole project but definitely unreasonable against Lisbon though. Lisbon doesnt advance the project - it just makes the whole thing work a bit better.
58. That’s not good enough. He is a self-confessed traitor, by any definition. And he is an MEP. And these people - MEPs - are meant to be getting more and more power?
No. Not good enough. He’s your guy. And he is, as he admits himself, loathsome.
You need to do something about people like this, as they are screwing yr image.
48. “At present if a chicken in Luxumbourg says No, it’s enough to block things”. Yes, ignoring the obvious exaggeration, it’s called democracy and national sovereignty. Important things, though not in the minds of some EU types (wrongly, in my view - if integration was argued for openly, rather than made by stealth, more people might perhaps support it and be less suspicious of the EU).
All countries, but perhaps especially small ones, need their rights, and one of the most fundamental is the veto on treaties.
54 I accept your point. There needs to be an democratic dimension to EU exectutive function as well. I was just refering to the mechanics of EU consitutional amendments. The current system is insane. I am sure we can all agree on that. It’s long, divisive, tedious and barely democratic.
If there were hard limits on the role of the EU, I think one man one vote would be a good thing.
63 - Give me SeanT’s baiting of lefties over your trolling any day.
45, 46. so he very sensibly said one thing and did another on several issues back then, still supports illiberal and uncivil policies now, and you think I should back him unreservedly, without questioning anything, purely because he’s now making a fuss about 42 days (but supported 28) and couldn’t handle losing the argument both in parliament and within the shadow cabinet.
According to Portillo and Abbott on This Week, some have the stuff in the Treaty has already been enacted in the form of directivews, If that’s right, they will just put through the rest.
So DD saved Gordon one day of bad news, only now he will look like he is running away from two elections.
63. I am sometimes guilty of hyperbole. Ahem.
But not this time. How else do you define an Englishman who says “the English must be defeated” - if not as a “traitor”?
Wishing the defeat of your people is the very essence of treachery.
How would you describe him? A stout-hearted patriot?
lol
68. seanT _is_ on a one-man crusade to prevent any mature and informed two-way discussion of the EU on pb.com.
Re. 51, to paraphrase Brecht, ‘why not dissolve the Irish people and elect another?’ Yes, Sean T, you’re right, truly nauseating arrogance and pomposity from a man who doesn’t deserve to be an MEP. He reminds me of the supercilious irk who wrote to the Indy yesterday to say that, should the Irish vote No, they would ‘not be forgiven’. Now I’m even more delighted that I persuaded my cousin’s Irish girlfriend to vote No!
As for the free drinks, I’m one quarter Irish if any of the would-be drinks-buyers would like to apply the FAI’s definition of Irishness…..
15. ‘Today, there are a good many Englishmen, myself included, being proud of their Irish grandmother and her Irish blood.’
I did have an Irish Grandmother but unfortunately she came from county Carlow and they voted ‘yes’.
Re; 46 - Casino, you seem to be in an almost semi-permanent rant these days !! I’ve said I’m happy to welcome Davis’s support for civil liberties and I’ve supported Clegg’s decision not to contest H&H.
That said, I still can’t reconcile the actions of David Davis in the past 24 hours with what he did in the Howard years despite your valiant attempts to spin it. Davis was happy to serve in a Howard Shadow Cabinet and presumably accept collective responsibility back then (I still think he thought he would be leader after the 2005 GE).
I fully accept he was opposed to ID cards back then - I’m NOT questionning his consistency. Where I part company with those who offer uncritical adulation for Davis is the recollection that he stood in the HoC and argued FOR ID cards. Given his behaviour yesterday, I think he should have resigned back then or contested the 2003 Conservative leadership election on his anti-ID card platform.
He didn’t - there comes a point when even the most uncritical has to ask some questions. I commend his stand, I respect his integrity, I understand his anxiety but let’s not imagine there is no opportunism or self-interest in any of this.
Re; 51 - Ok, SeanT, IF this is what Andrew has said, I think Nick Clegg needs to have an urgent conversation with him. It’s a supremely inane comment and, as you say, wholly anti-democratic.
That doesn’t mean Andrew can’t argue a case for closer political integration within the EU - fine - but language like this wouldn’t be acceptable were I LD leader but I’m not.
62 - Not sure. Duff has always struck me as a thoroughly decent man and I do not actually believe he is in it for the gravy. BUT I personally along with many Lib Dems do not support his views or his way of expressing them at all.
You must remember that not everyone who you strongly disagree with is a crook. There are lots of people about who are principled but wrong… and some unprincipled individuals who are right!
57. Yup. The SEA. There was a time when I might have supported that.
Now? I don’t give a sh*t anymore.
I’m so angry with the whole structure, I wouldn’t weep a tear if the whole lot came crashing down tomorrow.
Also, I think the business/economic advantages of the SEA and Single Market are overstated. In a globalised world, they are increasingly irrelevant and convergence of markets are happening anyway.
Doubt we’d lose a bean.
27. Your political antennae are finely-tuned, S&S.
In this country by-elections occur for essentially 4 reasons.
1) you die…
2) you want to “retire” mid-parliament, usually to a good screw on another gravy-train…
3) you have some fundamental falling-out with your own party, and want to humiliate them…
4) you are from Northern Ireland, and are laying down your life for some great cause, or are in jail trying to uphold your right to sit for a seat that you would not take if you were at liberty to do so…
Now which category does Davis fall into? hmmmm…
66 It’s not democratic when one person’s vote counts one hundred times more than someone elses. National sovereignty is expressed through the executive at the stage where the treaty/act/constitution is drawn up. We can veto anything before it is put to the people.
Once our national govts have agreed on something, then IMO there is no reason why it can’t be put to the people as a whole, with all votes counting the same.
79 - “Once our national govts have agreed on something, then IMO there is no reason why it can’t be put to the people as a whole, with all votes counting the same.”
I’ll refer you to the Danish, Irish and Polish constitutions at the very least. Probably a few more too.
Avoiding the pesky voters is the theme of the moment.
Avoiding the pesky voters is the theme of the moment.
72. Remember it is 11pm here in Ko Samed, I shall be off to bed soon - so you can have your mature debate very soon!
BTW I am watching the Beeb24 - they are saying the EU will try to ratify without Ireland. I don’t see how they can do this without breaching the terms of their own Treaty, so they will have to change the terms.
That will mean a legal challenge in the UK, and I think the sceptics, as I have said before, would win that - as the case is fairly inarguable. A changed Treaty is not the Treaty the UK government ratified.
The Third Reading of the Treaty Bill is next Wednesday in the HoL. Will the Liberal Democrat Party vote with Gordon Brown’s Labour Party to ratify this now rejected and therefore defunct Treaty?
I assume it will as the Lib Dem peers are dismissive of the party leadership’s views so even if Nick Clegg accepted the democratic verdict of a fellow EU member and said the legislation shouldn’t proceed Shirley and co. would troop through in support anyway.
84 - I think the Eurocrats are clever enough to avoid that. Probably wishful thinking I’m afraid. Surely Nice is the model they’ll try first. Whether they ask the Irish people again might be a tiny bit in question though.
Barrosso “the treaty is not dead”…. “we should find a solution”… shock horror disgusting Europhile traitor refuses to accept democratic decision.
85 - Is it not ironic that the third reading of this latest attempt at uniting Europe in one huge superstate comes on the 293rd anniversary of the final defeat of a previous attempt?
80 Indeed, the current situation would proabably block such a simple, straightforward democratic solution. No reason not to float it though.
BTW In defence of SeanT.
Behind the passion/anger/insults he does actually have a point IMO. He’s making a very straightforward defence of the democratic process. IMo he’s actually quite a Europhile even if he is not an EUphile when push comes to shove. It is for EU defenders to demonstrably show that the EU is democratic, they’re their own worst enemy IMO. SeanT has nothing on them.
79 that’d be the system that put Labour into power on 36% of the vote and gave them a majority of the seats in England despite the Tories getting more votes. One they have strangely not yet put right.
Andrew Duff is a known loony. I find him more amusing than dangerous to be perfectly honest though I have no doubt whatever he is absolutely honest and principled - you will never find him saying anything other than the most extreme Eurofedaralist line.
It does say something about the European parliament and the total lack of interest in it even amongst LibDems that someone so electorally toxic can be leader of the LD group and for that matter even get himself first on the list.
88 - sorry 193rd.. hit the wrong key.
88- Surely Hitler was the last? (This Joke is a Copyright of ‘Yes Prime Minister’)
42 - He opposed repeal of section 28 and equalising the age of consent.
One thing I would say for him on that is that he is personally very tolerant - was very supportive of Michael Brown when he ran into difficulties and of course is a big Iain Dale ally. I’m not quite sure what it means to combine personal tolerance with a tough political line - does it make him forgiving or hypocritical? I prefer to think the former.
84. I’m not particularly interested in debating the EU, I think it’s a pretty boring topic - but you do seem to have a miraculous, 24-hour, 6th sense that draws you to your computer whenever any of the magic words appear on this site, ready to fire off a humorous and robust rebuttal including the words ‘traitor’ and ’superstate’.
92 - I didn’t say ‘last’ I said ‘a previous’.
79 - You missed the actual answer Rod, but then again you already knew that.
75. “Re; 46 - Casino, you seem to be in an almost semi-permanent rant these days !!”
True!!
I sort of enjoy it - I find it good therapy for me
The more sensible posters know I don’t really me it! (when I’m downright rude that is)
But.. I’m not spinning Davis. I *know* he’s deadly serious about this. For a fact. I know the guy. I’ve spent time with the guy. One of my best friends is a close friend of his. He is a lone warrior - can be a bit prickly by the way - but he always tells you what he thinks.
Practical politics means you can’t ALWAYS act 100% with your conscience. Thatcher supported many policies in Heaths cabinet she later radically opposed as PM. That’s politics.
Well, now he has and it’s there for all to see.
I’m sorry I can’t convince you. And I think it’s sad everyone is LOOKING to find the insincerity in him. Assuming, because he acted the way he did and that he’s a politican, that he has none.
Any sign of when the result will be announced?
“That will mean a legal challenge in the UK, and I think the sceptics, as I have said before, would win that - as the case is fairly inarguable.”
The words of the Treaty are indeed quite explicit, that it does not come into force until the last state has ratified it.
94 - “but you do seem to have a miraculous, 24-hour, 6th sense that draws you to your computer whenever any of the magic words appear on this site”
You misunderstand - SeanT doesnt come upon these EU debates, he usually provokes them by lobbing a suitably controversial (though usually very funny) post on the topic into a thread. It’s the people who rise to the bait who then start the EU debate.
98- It is supposed to be very soon, but then they have been saying that for the past hour.
97. if you pull a stunt like this, you are asking for people to look at your record on the one issue you want to fight on.
I’m not questioning his seriousness or honesty, just the suggestion that anyone who dares to question his opinions is illiberal.
96. So give me a 5th category, a historical precedent for what Davis is allegedly trying to do?
30. from the purveyor of all truths Wikipedia
Davis is perceived to be socially conservative. He expressed support for the restoration of the death penalty as recently as November 2003. He is highly sceptical of the political expansion of the European Union. He voted against the repeal of Section 28 (which banned local government from promoting homosexual relationships in schools). However, he has consistently attracted support on a personal level from all sections of the party. Thus, when the gay Conservative MP Michael Brown was pictured on holiday with a 20-year-old man in 1994 (when the age of consent was still 21), Davis drove to Brown’s home to offer his help.
So he voted against section 28 not quite the same as voting against gay rights,
AP: No Vote is 53.4%
79- It just seems to me that the average voter may not see the sense in Davis’ antics and in fact may resent his desire to make them complicit in his three-ring circus. It’s quite an accomplishment to convince those who view voting as a precious right to instead see it as an imposition, but I just might have been so convinced if I were one of his constituents.
99 - Yes, there would be no “legal debate”. If Ireland doesn’t ratify the Treaty isn’t in force anywhere. Nobody will argue otherwise.
86. All the Irish politicians I’ve seen being interviewed, and most of them are Yes people, are saying “There will be no 2nd referendum”. So unless they are lying - or are hugely bullied by France and Germany etc - there won’t be a 2nd vote.
So no Nice-type re-run, methinks.
Besides, a 2nd vote might get another No, even bigger, anyway.
The only option I can see, apart from abandoning it altogether, is a total rehaash of the Treaty, but simply excluding Ireland. Legally complex, but do-able, I suppose, maybe… I’m not a constitutional lawywer.
But this would be politically impossible for Labour, I think. So it would also exclude the UK.
Here we go…
89. I think that SeanT eloquently puts forward the views of around 70%+ of the British Public.
We like, enjoy and are fascinated by Europe and European culture - but we despise what the EU has become.
Personally, I’ve been pushed so far by the whole thing I now favour withdrawal and a Swiss/Norwegian relationship with the EU.
I could only be persuaded otherwise if A LOT of things about the EU changed..
[Results Received: 43 of 43]
Yes 46.6% (752,451)
No 53.4% (862,415)
Turnout: 53.13%
Lets just look back and remember with glee the sight of Brown, Miliband and Murphy flushing away their reputations in parliament with their lies and misspeaking about this treaty, all to no avail.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
103. So Rod, nothing should ever happen unless there is a historical precedent for it? Is that what you’re saying?
In the words of Sir Humphrey:
“Many, many things can happen, but nothing should ever happen for the first time”.
I wonder what’s going to happen now to punters who bet on PaddyPower’s “Full-time president of the EU market”. This was always contingent on Lisbon being approved right across the EU. Now the Irish have put the mockers on that I hope that PP void the market and refund all bets.
….(waiting in the club lounge at Madrid Chamartin station for the HotelTrain to Paris)
104 - He also voted against equalising the age of consent which is pretty clearly anti-gay rights.
I think most people would also argue section 28 restricted the right to be recognised in schools as having made an equally valid lifestyle choice. You can of course argue that that is a right you don’t want to recognise for moral reasons (and I would disagree) - but it is pretty clearly a right capable of recognition.
108 - Has Cowen or any senior cabinet minister said so? I’ve missed it if they have.
103 - You know what it is so stop playing dumb; anger at government policy.
Final Constituency (Laoighis Offaly)
Yes 56.01%
No 43.99%
111. What a crushing defeat. Not even a slight defeat, but a humiliation!
Gordon Brown, once again on the losing side of the debate and looking totally thread bare and naked. Cameron must now come out and denounce the Lisbon Treaty as being dead and tell Brown he has no authority to ratify this.
103. RodCrosby So give me a 5th category, a historical precedent for what Davis is allegedly trying to do?
Not everything has a precedent; everything must be done for the first time.
I’m amazed by two things over the whole Davis thing:
(i) how out-of-touch nearly the whole of the MSM is with what the general public seems to think about it; and
(ii) the complete lack of evidence for any split; seemingly those arguing for a split are doing so because they can’t conceive of any other reason for the resignation, despite the fact that one was provided. Of course, that’s not to say that there hasn’t been a split, but the evidence for it is at odds with the hysterical reaction from the MSM and the anti-Tories.
“Andrew Duff, Lib-Dem leader says, “we cannot accept this result”.”
Seems along the same lines as illiberal Lord Carlile on 42 days who wrote in the Sun today that it is ok because it will only harm a few people.
115 - Possibly, although in terms of age of consent I was deeply mixed on the thing and think that it would have potentially been better to equalise up rather than down.
108 - “Legally complex, but do-able, I suppose, maybe… I’m not a constitutional lawywer.”
No, you couldn’t really do that short of not having Ireland in the EU which won’t happen. The Lisbon Treaty is a multilateral agreement between states rather than a bilateral agreement between the EU and each member state. So you have to have it applied to all or none. It is meaningless to have one party signed up on different terms because in a multilateral scenario it means they aren’t signed up at all.
With respect to Kelvin MacKenzie putting up in the byelection against David Davis Michael Crick’s blog [see BBC website politics] wonders how Rupert Murdoch an American citizen or his news empire [American registered] could legallly put up supporting funds.
I also am a LIBDEM who thinks that Nick Clegg has handled the by-election well so far - cant see how we could oppose a campaign which is a one issue campaign - opposition to 42 days detention.
Davis might well have gone mad but thats another issue
Meanwhile… on the EU: A great result, thanks very much Ireland
Majority of over 110k. I expect Britain to ratify pointlessly as many countries did the first time the Constitution was kicked out. Now it’s been kicked out again I’m convinced there’ll be a third attempt; hopefully our government will actually let us have our say next time.
122 - Well possibly but he didn’t favour equalising it at all as far as I am aware.
Someone in the EU comission should resign for this IMO. Not once, but twice this has failed. Come on show some responsibility.
126 - Yes but there are good grounds for that without being anti-gay. Not all decisions are that easy or simply defined.
121 Did wonder how the “independent” Lord Carlile could claim that independence and also remain a Lib Dem while penning a partisan article to be used in a Sun campaign. Better to give his views to Parliament rather than be a proponent for the Government I’d of thought.
116. Lucinda Creighton, FG Europe spokeswoman, and one of the leaders of the Yes campaign, said “There will be no second referendum”, as I watched BBC TV just now. As did a No politician (more obviously).
I’ve also read several statements to that effect from Irish ministers/pols - but admittedly that was before the No.
But I just don’t see how they can force through a second vote anyway. The contempt for the electorate would be breathtaking. Will they never learn?
120- The hysterical reaction of Jacqui Smith and others will no doubt add to the general chaos surrounding Davis’ decision. One can only wonder what his constituency will make of it all. Certainly everything happens for a first time, and the uniqueness of this event doesn’t make it inherently illogical. However, the logic of Davis’ step may indeed escape average voters and leave them wondering what all the fuss is about.
127. they would have to have principles to do that!
One other point, how much of this Irish result is down to the Irish actually voting for this on merit and how much is down to anti-government/elite feeling, I’m not sure. Its probably a bit of both. Nobody should be in any doubt though, theres a new anti-government/anti-establishment/anti authoratarian mood sweeping many of the western democracies right now. I truely believe opinion poll evidence will show David Davis is tapping into that mood when the first polls come through this weekend (even though paradoxically people may not actually support him on 42 days) and Labour are about to find themselves caught in this mood. With the faultering economy, the new national mood and their dire leaders, Labour could be facing a perfect storm that may well pretty much destroy them!
130 - Lucinda isnt in government. I thought they couldnt ignore the Nice referendum result. But they did. Or at least you can argue the point. The difference with Nice was there was an obvious point you could fix to justify a rerun. Much less obvious here but early days yet.
129 - “Did wonder how the “independent” Lord Carlile could claim that independence and also remain a Lib Dem while penning a partisan article to be used in a Sun campaign.”
I expect Carlile to lose the whip during the by-election campaign.
128 - I don’t think there are really grounds for opposing equalising the age of consent which aren’t properly characterised as being anti-gay rights. It is of course an internally consistent position to say, “I don’t think it’s an equally valid lifestyle so I don’t favour equality - but I am all in favour of personal respect and common decency”.
The “age of consent” is an extremely blunt instrument for a very difficult area. The argument behind having a higher age for homosexual relationships is that typically it takes longer for young people to come to terms with being gay and hence they are more vulnerable to abuse.
123- The EU likes to use the latent threat of being excluded, or left behind, to cajole recalcitrant member states into accepting the latest and greatest surrender of their national powers. However, I agree that this is likely a bluff, and the EU would step back from any real threat to proceed without a member state on board.
MacShane blaming the Socialist Workers’ Party and millioaires. An unusual political coalition.
OK, here it is, plan B:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2124024/EU-referendum-Euro-Treaty-timeline.html
Very tricky. Can the Irish government sneak this past their people?
Moreover, the timing is awful - late 2009/2010. By then Cammo will surely be in power, or as near to power as makes it impossible for Brown to back the idea.
This plan B sucks. They need a plan C. Or plan D. How about plan FFS, GIVE UP.
This is how the Assocaited Press are reporting it
Rural and working-class areas were almost universally anti-treaty. Better-off parts of Dublin registered stronger support for the EU. In suburban south Dublin, a largely wealthy and highly educated district, the “yes” camp triumphed with 63 percent of the vote. But a neighboring, scruffier district voted 65 percent “no.”
Scruffier district !!
131. S&S: The hysterical reaction of Jacqui Smith and others will no doubt add to the general chaos surrounding Davis’ decision.
Agreed. It’s notable that she (and other Labour politicians IIRC) immediately reacted with “there has been a split” - presumably because in their party, that’s what it would mean.
139 millionaires.
137: BBCNews: referendum is a “blunt instrument” for making decisions
139 MacShane is a disgrace and always has been. He would sell his vote for 10 year old mini let alone a second hand mondeo
David Cameron: “I am delighted with the news…”
Yeah, I bet you are!
140 - “Can the Irish government sneak this past their people?”
If the concessions address the issues that arose in the campaign then maybe. Might be a boost for Sinn Féin as the only party to stand against it but if the rest band together then they can hardly all be punished for it but the 20% or less of people who really, really care about it.
What happens to Stuart Wheeler’s court case now?
141 - MY home constituency voted no - I feel very common now
142- Surely it is more to do with a split being what Labour have been trying to achieve with specific goverment proposals. Of course, it hasnt quite worked out as Davis resigned becuase he was against 42 days, not for it!
128. noone said he was anti-gay, simply that he was anti gay rights, backed up by the fact he voted on at least 2 occasions against giving a particular civil liberties to gay people.
So Mr MacShane has stormed off Radio 5….
How long before “gabble” appears on pb.com?
151 - what upset him? Apart from the ‘no’ vote, obviously
Weren’t the questions sycophantic enough?
149. simon9999: Surely it is more to do with a split being what Labour have been trying to achieve with specific goverment proposals.
Well, yes, I suppose it’s possible that Smith et al are trying to engineer a self-fulfilling prophecy. Given that the new Shadow Home Secretary’s stated policy is exactly the same as Davis’s was, it doesn’t seem to have worked so far. And now the news agenda will be across the Irish Sea for a while; in fact, I don’t expect it to seriously get back to Davis until Labour actually make a decision on whether to stand in H&H.
147: the Wheeler case was always going to be thrown out of court anyway.
Well done Ireland. Won’t make any difference of course, we’ll get the Treaty anyway, but it might just bring about a realisation that the EU has to respond to what the people of Europe actually want if it is to survive.
Or perhaps not…
152 Think the guy from Open Europe might have ruffled gab.. sorry MacShane’s feathers.
147. Surely it continues. He might even find the judges a little more amenable, emotionally…
It also means Wheeler will have lots of ammo for a second, supremely winnable court case if Brown tries to sneak through a tweaked Treaty without ratification.
Listening to apologists for the Lisbon Treaty advocating ratification, one wonder which part of the word NO is not understood.
SeanT: does there not now need to be a further treaty? To make the institutions work better at the very least.
Could the EU kick Ireland out and the rest get on with it?
159 - That’s probably something Ireland would get a veto on
Margot Wahlstrom now explaining why the treaty is still alive. The treaty is not dead; “we must examine the result to see what can be done”
158 Can’t they just tinker about with the rules a bit if it’s really so necessary? As a generally pro (but bored) European I can’t see why we need all this ballyhoo about treaties. Seems a bit pointless to me.
Brian Cowen to speak shortly. Damn, and I was just going to go to the pub too.
Found MacShane’s bit on 5Live. He didn’t really storm off on air, disappointing though that is. But the spot was yet another example of how well the excellent Simon Mayo can conduct a political debate.
158. OK I’m off to bed - a happier man. Before I go -
Yes I suppose there needs to be another Treaty. But it needs to do lots of things like handing powers BACK to the nation states, making the accounts unpassable without proper auditing, abolishing Strasbourg, reforming CAP and the CFP, ending MEP expenses scandals, making commisssoners LESS powerful while also making commissioners electable, ending EU employee legal immunity, making EU laws easily repealable, giving the ECJ less power, taking power back from the EU parliament when they don’t need it, ending EU power over all criminal justice (and other areas), and so on and so forth.
A big shopping list. Probably not achievable.
In which case Britain needs to negotiate semi-detachment and let the core countries do the stuff they want. Job done.
165 - Of course many Irish people voted no because they, for example, opposed CAP reform. Still so happy with the no result?!
I expect Cowen to speak shortly after the, ahem, Angelus (which is still played twice daily on RTE tv and radio).
Can I just draw attention to the fact that Colchester held 2 minutes of silence to honour the 5 soldiers who were killed this week. 5 individuals from one regiment. a very sad week.
What happens now? The EU leaders go underground and adopt stealth tactics. As much of the Treaty as possible will be implemented piecemeal.
As Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan explains:
“The constitution was a one-off. Instead of occupying territory inch by inch, under cover of night, the integrationists drew up their cataphracts in ranks and offered us a pitched battle. It is not a mistake they will repeat again.
The democratic experiment is over. We are back to the Monnet method of behind-the-scenes integration. Eurocrats have calculated that, as long as we are presented with a fait accompli, we will shrug our shoulders and accept it. And, God forgive us, they are probably right.”
(see: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/02/20/do2001.xml)
or 166 or Regina Coeli surely?
167. No vote , Cue for Slow Movement from Bruckner’s Seventh prior to announcement of strategic withdrawal to prepared positions.
Good man Brian - he’s giving the press conference in Irish! Available from the RTE website - I’ll give a translation for a small fee
Maybe Gordon Brown will resign and fight a by-election on the treaty and forty-two days?
#103 George Lansbury resigned his Bow and Bromley seat in 1912 to force a by-election on the issue of voting rights for women. He lost, and was out of Parliament for 10 years
172. But could he find 10 people to nominate him?
173. The same George Lansbury forced out by Ernie Bevin and other Union leaders in 1935.
English version now - will of the people, government accepts it, source of disappointment, we need to reflect, move forward, mindful of partners disappointment in Europe, once again a treaty has been unable to get support, no rush to conclusions, we’ve been here before and found a way forward and hope to again, Ireland has no wish to halt EU, Ireland shares goal of a union fit for purpose, will meet EU partners next week, result brings uncertainty and difficulty, no quick fix, no rush, need to find out why the result was no.
174.
Yet another snippet from Coffee House:
“Can you tell me why you have decided to vote no on the Lisbon Treaty?”
30% I don’t know what I’m voting for/ don’t understand it
24% To keep Ireland’s power and identity
22% To safeguard Ireland’s neutrality
17% Don’t like being told what to do/ forced into voting yes
12% Bigger countries will have too much power
[159] - How would that work with the Euro, though? Plus the EU generally wants to be larger (aiming for Serbian and Turkish membership in the years ahead), rather than smaller.
167 Indeed.
#147 What happens to Stuart Wheeler’s court case now?
Ironically one of the arguments being relied on by the Treasury’s Solicitors is:
The Claim is based upon political statements, consisting of, and analogous to, manifesto commitments, which cannot give rise to legitimate expectations.
169. or 166 or Regina Coeli surely?
Is not the Regina Coeli used only in the Easter - Whitsun period, the Angelus at all other times?
169. or 166 or Regina Coeli surely?
Is not the Regina Coeli used only in the Easter - Whitsun period, the Angelus at all other times?
29 - “What happens now? The EU… abolishes the ECJ/ECHR…
Then we go back to fully sovereign independent nation states and the Council of Europe again.”
The EU can’t abolish the ECHR as it is nothing to do with the EU. Rather it is to do with the Council of Europe which you seem to propose keeping.
What happens now? We get the treaty anyway.
re 182 it is, bur presumable RTE is Catholic enough to know they should be using the alternative during that period.
“Shadow foreign secretary William Hague has said the Government should now halt the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty after it was thrown out by voters in Ireland.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/national_news/index.var.229953.0.halt_lisbon_treaty_process_hague.php?
Is there a betting market on William becoming the next Shadow Home Sec?
188 - If there is, lay heavily Sally. Cameron has already given it to Dominic Grieve QC.
Hasn’t this been *a very long week in politics*?
It is amazing how much contrivery there has been this week.
It seems that in terms of democracy Davis is the only becon of hope, Brown abuses it and the EU ignores it.
Will PaddyPower now be taken over by EDF…?
It would hide it’s Lisbon-embarrassment [
], and it will fit Barrosso’s Nazi-Vichy Germanic-French plans!!!
Re 21, Jonathan “Might actually get them to write a simple document worth voting Yes on. Who knows.”
There in lies the problem. They want to write long winded ones taking powers they need not take where they have no competence.
BTW is the uk ratification of the treaty completely independent of what happens elsewhere - ie. is there a point at which they are deemed to have “signed” the treaty regardless of what happens elsewhere (ie. they are committed to it, the moment the Irish come on board)?
Or is it a case of every state ratifies, at which point there’s another signing ceremony to seal the deal?
139, personally I blame the electorate. Bloody jumped up peasants:p
Hurrah for Ireland.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 43% .. Obama 46%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107992/Gallup-Daily-Obama-46-McCain-43.aspx
53% turnout! That’s surely too high to think that the EU could make a few chances and then reverse it?
*changes
Phew! Finally things seem to be slowing down on here to a manageable pace.
Maybe as Kelvin Mackenzie is in favour of locking people up for 42 days without charge; he might wish to volunteer to spend the entire by-election campaign in a mocked- up cell. A camera could be mounted upon the wall to make sure that he does not get any privileges or access to information from the outside world. His diet would be strictly controlled, no alcohol and limited contact (If at all) to family and friends. If he does not accept the challenge then he is guilty of hubris of the highest order. I suppose we could also ask Nick Palmer to give up 42 days as well to practice what he preaches – If they do not accept the challenge they are Chickens of the highest order!
194- And, according the AP, their shaving habits are less than dignified, too (see 141).
One other thing. This must surely mean complete wipeout for Labour in next year’s Euros. That was always likely, but now this has resolved all Cameron’s problems. The treaty will not have been ratified so he can expect serious support simply by reiterating his stance in favour of a referendum. And won’t need to answer questions about what he does post ratification.
201. But there might not be a treaty to ratify.
Gabble MacShane in his interview says “I personally think that a vote in a foreign country should not determine the democratic decisions taken in the British Parliament.”
So presumably he’s unwilling to accept majority voting in the EU on any subject? UK Parliamentary sovereignty rules OK?
Welcome to UKIP Mr MacShane.
I don’t think any of this week’s events will improve Labour’s standing in the polls.
The public reaction to Davis is more positive than the MSM would suggest.
Davis’ tantrum is completely unprincipled, knobbling the only party who could have unseated him before announcing his resignation. But, to many he will appear principled and that won’t do him or the tories any harm.
Plus, the Labour party have prevaricated over standing themselves which has allowed the opposition to portray them as cowardly. And, if they don’t stand then the opposition will be right.
201. This is very bad for Brown, he does not accept democracy, if it does not go with his agenda. This EU referunda failure, following on Labour’s refusal to contest a by-election, a chickening out of a general election in 2007 and the manipilation of the PLP to ensure no leadership challange leaves Brown in a truely shocking position as regards democracy.
Brown then has the arrogance to lecture Mugabe, looks like the pair are moving in the same direction to me.
190. Hasn’t it just. This time last week Gabble and co were foaming at the mouth about Nannygate. Seems such a long time ago, now. What a momentous week its been!
203. Ted: “So presumably he’s unwilling to accept majority voting in the EU on any subject? UK Parliamentary sovereignty rules OK?”
No, because the UK have a vote in the EU - not the same thing really.
204 - how is it unprincipled? He didn’t have to resign. It would be a bit pointless to resign to fight on the issue of civil liberties if you then found your main (only?) challenger agreed with you and was determined to fight the election on other issues.
204. Well as i said afterwards in 205, Brown’s commitment to democracy and the outcome of elections now looks in doubt. I think Brown has been painted into a statist, autocratic position thay limits his already deminished appeal.
204. Gabble, not happy with Kelvin M and The Sun speaking for your policies in H&H then?
Start an over-the-top rumour - Brown is so set on ratifying Lisbon because the EU have promised to clear Labour’s debts if he pushes it through.
Nah… not fantastic enough… I’d believe that one.
30 Robert
Could you please explain what you mean - more accountable, less bureaucratic, better Europe, please? When the British media, or nearly all of it, and most parties are just prepared to “have a pop” whatever, how do you overcome this?
210. Should shove Kelvin M, Nick Palmer and Gabble in a cell for 42 days! See how they like it!
210 - Yep having Kelvin standing for them is a nightmare
test
203, the pain of MacShane, supreme euroturd, is merely one a number of choice delights those lovely Irishmen have given us all today.
This must surely rank as the most event packed week (or even 3 days) for decades.
Any one of the EU result, the Davis resignation, Brown’s DUP dodginess or fuel strikes (with another next week) would be a major story, but to have all four within a handful of days is incredible.
210. GIN: “Gabble, not happy with Kelvin M and The Sun speaking for your policies in H&H then?”
Labour should stand on a broad platform and not give into Davis’ stunt. After all, we’re talking about one side who believes in 4 weeks maximum detention as opposed to another that believes in 6. Big deal! Where’s the choice, where’s the great principle - it’s just political posturing.
Kelvin (like Labour) is a bit soft on the detention issue so I don’t see any point in him standing in place of Labour.
193
Each country is supposed to deposit the ratification documents in Rome Once that the last country has done that the treaty comes into force either on 1st January 2009 or oin the first day of the next month after the last country has ratified.
216. Morris Dancer: “…the EU result, the Davis resignation, Brown’s DUP dodginess or fuel strikes (with another next week) would be a major story…”
You forgot Nannygate!
This just in from Richard Corbett MEP Another scumbag elected europhile who doesn’t seem to understand the meaning of the word democracy:
“Nor should we accept the bleating from Eurosceptics that there is somehow something undemocratic about a new referendum. It is perfectly reasonable to address a divergence in the positions of the 27 EU countries by asking the minority of one to think again - especially if its concerns have been addressed. What would be undemocratic would be to allow the one to prevail over the many.”
http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/blog/2008/06/so-ireland-has-said-no.html
217 - why the hell would you want to fight on “a broad platform” rather than the single issue of your most (only) supposedly popular policy?
The former = lost deposit
The latter = massively odds on to increase vote share at least.
217. Well, I wouldn’t say Davis is happy with 28 days, its just that 28 was the least worst option when Blair was trying for 90.
Personally, I imagine he would have prefered to keep it at 14.
203 Marvellous isnt it . Zanu Nulab are quite happy to twist arms and dissemble to get a vote thro the House of Commoms, but boy oh boy they dont like it when the electorate(albeit Irish) DEMOCRATICALLY tell em how it is.
Personally I am overjoyed at the Irish decision.
218 - can we ask for them back, or will we have to send in the SAS?
173. Thought you might mention that non-example…
It’s a category 3, I’m afraid….
“Ever since I have been in the House I have been more or less at loggerheads with them, and they with me. Hardly a meeting of the (Labour) party has taken place without my being reproached that I was a member of the party … and that I continually when beaten on a vote, refused to abide by the decisions of the majority … Now this year things have been going from bad to worse…”
http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/lab/87/shepherd.html
220. But Europhile scumbags are just like rapists they just don’t understand that no means NO!
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 46.5% .. Obama 51.5% .. Others 2%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 140 .. Obama 247 .. Toss Up 151
Eliminate Toss Up - 270 Required for Electoral College Majority.
Change Since Last Projection - Wisconsin moves from Toss Up Obama to Likely Obama.
McCain 190 .. Obama 348.
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT ….. British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
221. alex: “why the hell would you want to fight on “a broad platform” rather than the single issue of your most (only) supposedly popular policy?”
Because you are electing a Member of Parliament to represent the people Haltemprice and Howden on all the issues that affect them.
189 I know that
I meant eventually!
Cameron wouldn’t want to get bumped into a reshuffle, esp now Europe is back on the agenda.
If the Tories need a big Home Sec, he is surely the best candidate.
However I think he has a particular interest in foreign affairs. And the Grieve is a lawyer….hmm talked myself out of losing my money.
224
199 MacKenzie is in favour of indefinate detention without trial.
Said so on Radio 2.
Expect Labour to adopt it.
224
They don’t have them yet. Not until the final reading and some official signs away the Queen’s rights on her behalf.
228 - there have been General Elections fought on single issues before, let alone by-elections, but if Labour want to lose their deposit then they should hire you as election co-ordinator.
219, like everyone else in the country.
“Woman paid for secretary on expenses 11 years ago” ain’t a story, especially stood next to recent events.
224 232 How long before they get left on a train.
No chance of them being handed in.
222. GIN “Well, I wouldn’t say Davis is happy with 28 days…Personally, I imagine he would have prefered to keep it at 14.”
If that’s true and he campaigns for it, then he will be running against Cameron and the tory party.
This could very well turn into a real disaster for the tories.
236 - Read this.
The whole way that 28 days came about was a farce.
236 ‘Could’ being the operative word.
You ‘could’ actually refere to what he has actually said.
Milliband reakons we are going to carry on ratifying the tread, whilst the Tories have declared it dead;
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7453084.stm
That should be “treaty” of course.
New Rasmussen Poll for Oregon :
McCain 38% .. Obama 46%
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/oregon/toplines_oregon_presidential_election_june_11_2008
Contrary to earlier comments/insults about Ed Davey’s view I have received the following statement by e-mail
Serious question mark over future of Lisbon Treaty - Davey
“The Irish people have spoken and it is clear that the treaty cannot be ratified without their support.
“Once scrutiny of the treaty is completed in Westminster next week its ratification should be suspended.
“The Liberal Democrats believe this treaty would have been good for Europe, but now the EU must redouble its efforts to improve its accountability and efficiency under the existing treaty provisions.”
238. Sally C
Is there any possibility that Davis may deviate from the official tory policies?
Many of the people who will turn up to support him (Shami Chakrabarti, Tony Benn etc) will certainly want him to.
239
Immensely damaging to say so. The eletorate will not be impressed.
243 - no reason why he shouldn’t if he so wishes. He’s not on the frontbench any more.
Did you miss the 37 MPs who voted against their own Govt on a vote that could have brought them down the other day?
Just seen a very bemused Kavanagh being interviewed on C4 news, he might be Kelvin’s campaign manager.
Meh, Lansley’s on Any Questions. Not a big fan.
But Labour’s represented by… *drumroll*…. Ed “I’ve got no” Balls.
247 - Is Kavanagh a hang ‘em and flog em type?
243. They might want him to drop the support for hanging or eat honey out of their belly buttons.
Doesn’t mean its likely.
How can he credibly object to something he voted for.
Anyway. he has covered this point in statements but you were too busy whistling in the wind to hear.
245. alex: “no reason why he shouldn’t if he so wishes. He’s not on the frontbench any more.”
I agree, but tories on this site who claim there is no split or argument between Cameron and Davis will have to eat their words.
Also, how can the tory party support an official candidate who is running on a platform that deviates from their own.
When Davis wins, it will put Cameron in an invidious position - how can he stand by his current policies when Davis (helped by the tory party) has just won a ‘referendum’ on them?
251. *has just won a ‘referendum’ against them
249 Yes but he is a much more weightier man than Pisscoe Watson. He likes being serious. Not sure it would be a good move for him to get tangled up with MacKenzie who shoots off at the mouth regularly.
Unless Murdoch gave him no choice.
233. The only two instances I can think of which were genuine single issue by-elections were the NI 1986 “referendum” on the Anglo-Irish treaty, and Tony Benn’s 1961 Bristol SE campaign to disown his unwanted peerage….
The Unionists took their united action because they believed there was no alternative. They had no opportunity of forming a government which could overturn the treaty, and there was pro-treaty consensus amongst the mainland parties. Nevertheless, their strategy backfired somewhat; turnout was down by over 20%, and they lost a seat.
The Benn case was about natural justice as it applied to one individual - Benn. Benn’s father, a Liberal then Labour MP had been given a peerage in 1940, but not before discussing it with his sons. The eldest, Michael, who would be next in line, had no political ambitions and was intent on becoming an Anglican priest. Unfortunately, Michael was subsequently killed as an RAF pilot during WW2, and the hereditary principle then devolved on the younger son Tony. Tony had political ambitions and was elected an MP in 1950. When his father finally died in 1960, Tony said he didn’t want the peerage, but a resolution of the House declared his seat vacant nevertheless. In the subsequent by-election Benn stood, and was re-elected by a handsome margin, but a court declared that he was ineligible and awarded the seat to the Conservative runner-up. It was plain to many that the law was anachronistic and an injustice had been done to both Benn and the electors of Bristol SE. The law was changed and Benn eventually returned to the Commons. A clutch of Tories also took advantage of the new law, including Lords Home and Hailsham, with an eye to succeeding to the premiership..
The Davis case has no similarities with either…
251 - You really are getting desperate, aren’t you? Inventing a hypothetical situation (Davis is not going to campaign on opposition to 28 days), and then massively exaggerate the “problems” it would cause Cameron.
I know Labour supporters are stuck with the idea that this whole thing is some sort of stunt to undermine the Conservative party, but perhaps they should come around to the fact (before it’s too late) that the purpose of the thing is to undermine the Labour Party.
The Irish rejecting Lisbon, and the Govt rejecting Irish democracy couldn’t have strengthened his argument more.
255 The two go hand in hand don’t they.
Now refuse to stand in the byelection.
242 So the Lib Dems in HoL will presumably vote against the Third Reading next week? Its the only way to “suspend” it - the Government will not withdraw it.
Or is it just hot air from Ed Davey ? Would Shirley & co take any notice anyway.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said the UK would press on with ratification, saying: “It’s right that we continue with our own process.”
Weird
Davey wants to stop the process AFTER its left the Lords.
Gets him out of a hole - sort of.
“This could very well turn into a real disaster for the tories.”
You can’t help but laugh.
Gabble, you’re amazing. A triumph of hope over experience.
It won’t, of course. You want to know why? Because Labour would have to get it’s act together first, and with the way they’re going I can’t see that happening before.. oh, say 2015.
258 - Don’t recall Blair pressing ahead with his referendum in 2005
259 - Send the Queen on a World Tour, or something?
Davis has set himself up, and to some extent is viewed by the public, as a champion of freedoms.
This is NOT the same thing as standing on the official tory platform. There’s not much difference between the tory and Labour positions.
The Chakrabarti’s and Benn’s of this world, having welcomed his ‘principled’ stand, will be expecting a lot more than that from him.
259 Presumably by stopping it getting Royal Assent? What are the Lib Dems going to do to make that happen? So it’s hot air then.
***NEW THREAD*** Movement on Tory seats market ***NEW THREAD***
Cheers
Morus
Lisbon has neutered any problems for Cameron over Davis at PMQs
- at least we have the courage to face the electorate.
“There’s not much difference between the tory and Labour positions.”
Not even you can believe that.
Re 103 Rod Crosby “96. So give me a 5th category, a historical precedent for what Davis is allegedly trying to do?”
The Duchess of Athol?
268. Katherine, Duchess of Atholl was a Conservative who fell out with her own party over numerous issues, finally over “appeasement.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katharine_Marjory_Stewart-Murray%2C_Duchess_of_Atholl
Category 3, again…
Gabble, come out of your little fantasy land. I know you support Gordon Brown, the man who said today that DD resigning and standing on principle is evidence of a split Tory party when he fails to accept that 37 of his backbenchers voting against him after he phoned each of them indicates a fision within the PLP.
There is a gulf of a difference between 28 days and 42 days. Having 28 days puts pressure on the Crown to establish a case within 14 days and if absolutely necessary, taking the same time thereafter to put the finer points on their allegations. Starting off knowing they have 42 days means they can automatically work to 30 days and then worry about the finer points thereafter.
For all of you shouting about the fact that only terrorists have to fear like that fat, ignorant, racist, homophobic hater of the Scots, Kelvin Mackenzie (the 10th most common Scottish surname by the way)has been mouthing about, look at whom New Labour’s anti-terrorism legilation has been used against. An octogenarian Labour supporter was arrested inside a Labour conference for daring to shout oppostion to Blair and Brown. He was arrested and held under anti-terrorism legislation. The anti-Chinese protestors who objected to being refused the right to exercise lawful protest at the gates of Downing Street against the visit of the Chinese PM, were threatened with and in some cases arrested under Labour’s anti-terrorism legislation. Numerous British businessmen have been extradited to America to face trial in the US kangaroo courts on offences which had nothing to do with the US because New Labour signed an extradition treaty to ease the transfer of terror suspects and these British citizens do not have the right to insist that either an English or Scottish judge can verify that the Americans have ANY case against the citizen. Under Blair’s anti-terrorism extradition treaty as long as the Americans ask the right way, extradition is automatic but of course the Americans wont ratify the treaty because we would then be entitled to insist on hundreds of IRA suspects including Brighton bombers, be extradited to Britain without any American court having the right to insist we prove any case!
So lets not kid, New Labour has form on this. Introduce anti-terror legislation, bang up a few asians, quietly release then a fortnight later after having to admit there was no case to start with and then start using the same laws against “normal” citizens exercising their right to protest.
Thank goodness for the Irish. Let’s see Brown either putup a candidate in H and H or throw the backing of Labour behind Kelvin “The Racist” Mackenzie and we can then look forward to David Davis, supported by DC and the entire Shadow cabinet and maybe also by Nick Clegg and the entire LibDem Shadow cabinet stuff Brown and his mouthpiece. Its 1977-1979 all over again.
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