Does this rule Hillary out completely?
June 16th, 2008
Why has Barack hired her former campaign chief?
The big story in the White House race tonight is the hiring by Obama of Hillary’s former campaign head, Patti Solis Doyle as chief of staff to the campaign’s eventual vice presidential nominee.
My initial reaction was that this was a clear sign that we are being prepared for Hillary going on the ticket. The New York Observer blog, reproduced above, takes the opposite view.
Ben Smith of Politico also takes a similar line - “Though this will stir speculation that she’s paving the way for Hillary, but it actually makes me think the opposite. Clinton fired her in February, and many of her backers view Solis Doyle as a bit of a traitor for having signaled that she’d move to Obama before the primary was over..But she adds a prominent female, Hispanic face to Obama’s senior staff, and has a major role, if an ambiguous one: It’s not exactly inside the Obama inner circle, and a running mate may also want to bring in his or her own people.”
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You can read the hire either way …. cunning though !!
If she had been hired as just a regular staffer that would be a regular insult. The fact that she’s been hired as his VP’s chief of staff pretty much says you are not going to be my running mate. It’s a pretty ugly way to do it and doesn’t really say I’m trying to unite the party does it?
Most bizarre set of news.
New Rasmussen Poll for Virginia :
McCain 44% .. Obama 45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election
I’m not sure how it can read either way - What points to a Hillary VP position? He might as well have hired Dick Morris - after all he worked with Bill & Hillary but there’s certainly no love lost between them now.
Anyone wanna fill me in?
The one who failed at their job was Mark Penn.
The Observer has been shit-stirring for the whole of the primary season and slurring the Democrats. I wouldn’t pay too much attention. This is mainly an outreach to Hispanics, little more.
As I’ve said before, Clinton will not be the VP choice. If he needs to, Obama will use Bill’s refusal to be vetted as the excuse.
2. Good grief, the democrats seem to be running from the age old guide on how to lose an election. Obama has more of a mountain to climb than many realise, I doubt he will have Clinton on the ticket as her negatives outweigh the positives as a VP. He seems to be politically incomptent if he has done this as a means of a one fingered salute. Best to ignore a defeated foe than either embrace them or rub there nose in it! Obama - silly man!
Pretty hilarious that the Clintonista are venting their rage at one of their former errand girls. Like SHE was their whole problem!
Just like they assumed that Bill Richardson was just an old family retainer whose only motivation was to do their bidding.
The Obama strategy seems clear: divide and conquer plus comic relief; and more importantly, send message that Clintons will NOT railroad Obama, not now, not ever.
Well, I have to say that is an amusing article!
7. Obama is recruiting the top Democratic players who weren’t already in his campaign. It’s realy not the hoo-ha certain journalists are trying to whip up (mainly because their only chance of a GOP win this time is to keep Clintonista anger up).
I think the really bizarre thing is that why is Obama appointing the Chief of Staff to a Veep candidate he hasn’t got yet. Surely it is premature and should be a decision to be taken with his pick?
The notion that this personnel move is a major positive or negative is laughable. Totally insider baseball. It’s all about message to insiders - and I don’t mean pbers or wannabes but the real deal - and nothing more.
Martin, the Clintons are tough AND mean. Which means they may need more than one kick in the head to get the message. To NOT do this if needed would be stupid politics, not smart like you seem to believe.
Anyway, as I keep preaching, what transpires immediately before, during & after the Denver convention is worth more than just about anything that happens before then and now.
11. Maybe it has been.
10 You are partly right. But the Solis hire is clearly a shot across the bow at the Good Ship Clintonnista.
11. Signal is, the Veep will be Obama’s guy/gal period, end of sentance.
O/T Euro 2008
Am I dreaming? Or is http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20992257&ex=1&origin=MRL
betting on the Netherland to win tomorrow against Romania at 3.3 an amazing betting opportunity?
Davis no champion of freedom
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/david_aaronovitch/article4152102.ece
and a “challenger” emerges?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2141350/A-challenger-for-David-Davis.html
13 - Obama may have a frontrunner, but prudence would dictate waiting unitil last possible (or politically beneficial) moment to make the actual decision.
17. What are your thoughts on Tim Kaine as VP? For some reason I just don’t warm to him.
15 - Maybe the market has over-reacted. But:
(a) Holland don’t need to win at all, since they have won the group already
(b) Holland will probably play a 2nd team to avoid injuries or suspensions to their regulars
(c) Romania are no mugs
(d) It might be considered to be in Holland’s interest to lose, thus eliminating Italy & France, who they could meet again in the semis. Although Holland beat Italy 3-0 and France 4-1 both margins flattered them somewhat and I would not bet against either side reversing the form at a later date.
[That said, Holland's likely semi is against Spain anyhow].
17. And why do you think Warner and Strickland have ruled themselves out?
Re 16, Rod, quoting a tired old authoritarian hack like Aaronavitch is pointless.
21 - Another candidate to be gabble?
22 - He’d get eaten alive!
19 Thanks. Would you advise then to bet on the draw or on Romania?
11 - would have been my point, that it’s unusual to declare a Veep’s chief of staff before the veep! However I wonder if the female factor is significant. Obama could be deploying women in key positions to dilute the outcry when he announces his running mate will be male?
16
Rod has Aaroanvitch ever strayed from the New Labour line or indeed ever been critcical?
24 - You don’t have to bet, Phillipe
This game’s one for the conspiracy theorists, really.
23 - Sorry, I wasn’t being clear. I was wondering if Aaronovitch = gabble.
Having said that, if we all club together maybe we could stand a politicalbetting.com candidate.
A fruit and vegetable stall holder and anti-war campaigner, Fitzpatrick, 58, said today that he also believed Davis was wrong to oppose a longer detention period for terror suspects.
“Forty-two days detention is a reasonable act for unreasonable people He’s made a big mistake. He’s made the biggest political blunder since the Iraq war,” he told the BBC,
I so love it when people get things out of all proportion!
22 Wouldn’t the good people of Rotherham be upset? don’t think you can represent two constituencies…
Re 22, UKpaul “21 - Another candidate to be gabble?”
Having read it, it looks like it could have been written by Gabble. Perhaps it was?
David Aaronovitch would support hanging if Labour proposed it and would oppose it if anyone else did.
18 Think he’s a good guy and a potentially good pick. He’s a lucky one, as he showed by winning the VA Gov’s race. Would help with Applalachian whites in VA and likely also in WV and OH.
Note that his gubernatorial victory was partly due to his confronting the religious issue head on. A smart move no doubt first suggested by his consultant! But Kaine had both the substance & showmanship to pull it off. Would dovetail well with Obama in that regard.
O/T - Has this been mentioned?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jun/16/algore.barackobama
20 - Don’t have a clue (as per usual!)
16 Old news.
New Mason-Dixon poll, Nevada: McCain 42, Obama 44
From Ambinder:
“Obama is strong with young voters, with women and with Hispanics. McCain has strength with every other demographic.”
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/nevada_poll_mccain_42_obama_44.php
Crick still hounding Spelman on Newsnight.
21 ‘Authoritarian’: the new ‘nasty’ word in British politics.
37 - One of the few people I would punch on sight. His name really does start with the wrong consonant though.
36 Phillipe. You’ve transposed the figures. McCain is +2.
I reported the poll on the last thread …. some hours back !!
re 39. Is the person you want to punch on sight RodCrosby or Michael Crick?
40. You’re right! Apologies.
Re 41, Mike, I hope it is crick, as Rod may be coming to the BBQ!
41: S*d Crosby
Look forward to meeting him on Thursday!
That piece Michael Crick did on “Nannygate” is typical Crisk and its what he’s good at. He’s an investagative reporter. He goes around making politicians look corrupt and silly. Nothing wrong that - That sort of journalism certainly has its place, but is it really appropriate for a political editor to behave in that way?
Before the Tories take power, Newsnight are going to have to appoint another political editor and let Crick get back to his cynical muck-racking, because you can easily see a bog falling out taking place between a Tory government and the BBC with him as Newsnights political editor.
For Thursday perhaps someone could bring a cam to the Liberal Club for “PBers Gone Wild” which might be a good (?) way of raising funds for the noble work?
Spelman is stuffed, surely? She offered a detailed account of where and when her nanny was employed, and the story turns out to be full of holes. Cameron must be about to tell her her time is up.
New Cook/RT National Poll :
McCain 40% .. Obama 44%
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_cookrt_national_2.php
15: distinct danger here is that the Dutch reserves also have a lot of talent, and may view it as their best opportunity to get into the first team - not just any old team either, but one that is a very realistic favourite to win the tournament (with Germany unimpressive, Italy and France weakened by age, and Spain/Portugal notorious chokers). That’s one large motivation to impress the manager.
In particular, the Dutch reserves have particular talent in attack, which is a very dangerous situation for Romania. You might see Robben starting, and especially Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, who will want to cement his likely place as long term replacement for Van Nistelrooy in the Dutch attack. Perhaps also Van Persie, because he’s not had much game time over the last few months and really needs to get his touch back. A game where Romania will make the running is perfectly suited to those three.
Has Rod helpfully posted tommorrows front pages.
Business as usual I am afraid:
Metro-No room for sick babies
Times-Families in a fix as crunch gets worse
Telegraph-Tougheswt yearsince 1992 says CBI
Mail-Chip and Bin Disaster
45 - Actually met MC at the (last) Jeffery Archer trial. I was in the public gallery at the Old Bailey for a couple days - better drama than any of the retreds, etc. that won the Tony awards last night!
In that instance, wasn’t hard to make the defendent look “corrupt and silly” all you had to do was report the facts as they emerged. Morale of that story: mistake to alienate your former mistress, and even worse to screw (figuratively speaking) your secretary and old partners in crime.
47. I would reserve judgement until we see what the Satndards commisioner has to say. She’s refered herself to the commisioner, so she must be quite confident that she can account for all of this. Also, it WAS ten/evleven years ago, a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then.
45 Newsnight like the Tories because at least they never refused to put someone up.
Noone from the Government…etc did not arrive on the scene until the ‘tyrants’.
51. As I say, theres certainly a place for the Michael Cricks of this world, but not as a political editor of a news programme, IMO.
Of course, Mr C has had his own personal indiscretions, which he has never been keen to talk about publically.
A poll for Henley would cost £6k plus VAT - that is quite a lot of £50s. Anyone interested?
52 now only nine years ago: eleven was the original spin.
The press verdict is more important than the Commissioner, and she is open to ridicule.
56. Well, beyond Newsnight, I don’t see any great clamour in the press to get rid of her? With everything else going on, rightly or wrong, Nannygate has been well and truely under the radar.
This should help Barack Obama
Dear Herbert,
A few hours from now I will step on stage in Detroit, Michigan to announce my support for Senator Barack Obama. From now through Election Day, I intend to do whatever I can to make sure he is elected President of the United States.
Over the next four years, we are going to face many difficult challenges — including bringing our troops home from Iraq, fixing our economy, and solving the climate crisis. Barack Obama is clearly the candidate best able to solve these problems and bring change to America.
This moment and this election are too important to let pass without taking action.
47/52 - um not really. Spelman is toast and if she gets off it will be on a technicality - the fact that more than 7 years have elapsed. It’s probably the reason she has dobbed herself in.
It’s interesting to see the double standards that team Cameron applies - tough and correct action against Conway, but weak and supine against Spelman.
What with the major split with Davis (not helped by his ’snub’ of speaking to Clegg before Cammo) - it’s been a rare poor week for the Tories.
36 & 40
Philippe, don’t tread on Jack’s toes he spends his entire day cutting and pasting those polls,he won’t have anything else to do.
55 - For that we could stand multiple candidates in H&H.
58.
I forgot to mention the endorsement of Al Gore.
Too busy counting my winnings from Croatia in Euro 2008.
Good Night all
59. LOL! The view from the bunker!
55. There is probably some weird recursive conditional probability equation to estimate the “utility” value of conducting a poll, given you are intending to bet on the outcome….
Had a great day today; finished the catalogue of my CD Opera collection, listened to some Richard Strauss and Wagner, enjoyed some good food and wine. Took the curtains down in the lounge so the Mrs malc19ken could wash them and then this evening agreed with a number of my old Tory [Pretty Boy Dave faction] adversaries about St Davis and the 42 day Dragon.
Aah, could tomorrow be even better?
Nighty-night,
Malcolm
54. have to say that crick does look a bit like a deviant. However, on nannygate i think he is right to keep digging, if it was the other way round, guido and the bloggers wouldn’t give up so quick.
54 - You may have a point there.
Don’t know about his indiscretions. Only spoke with him for about 5 minutes. He struck me as rather intense.
Was able to give him a small factoid. From the public gallery I had a very good view of his Lordship in the dock, a much better vantage point for him than the press gallery.
Anyway, several papers reported that JA was taking copious notes during testimony. When in really what he was doing was going through his personal schedule diary. I could see him striking out entire entries, then stopping to scribble something, then flipping to the next page.
My impression: he was clearing his schedule. Because it was obvious that
1) he was guilty as sin; and
2) everyone in & out of court knew it.
I also suspected that
3) the Judge was going to throw the book at him
Got this impression, not because the Judge was biased or anything like that. Rather, because he appeared to me to be very fair and nobody’s fool.
Was strange senstation, leaving the court, buying a copy of the Evening Standard and reading about what I’d just witnessed.
“If there is a working class I am in it, if there is a criminal element I am of it, and if there is a soul in prision I am not free.”
Eugene Victor Debs
55. No. You will know soon enough and if its for betting, you will have spent all you winnings on the poll
59. How does it feel that the Tories are now the main party of freedom in the public eye old bean? I think Davis’ move long term may have stolen more than a little bit of lib dem territory.
60 simon. We are a committee didn’t you know ??
o/t all three petrol station in Crosby were out of juice tonight - a first.
10 years ago there were 7 petrol stations round here…
“in the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say ‘makes us your slaves, but feed us!’” - Dostoevsky
55 - surely some helpful Tory could leak the internal party polling?
Yoohoo, is Lord Ashcroft and/or any of his chief henchpeople in the house, fer Jaysus sake?
Not that they’re sweating bullets. Unless they’re getting in a bit o’ rowing upriver.
59 Dan.
Are you calling Nick Clegg a liar?
You see he told Peter Snow on Channel 4 news in front of millions of people [or at least people like Tyson and his cat] that…of course he told he had told his own leader first.
That is why that story is playing nowhere except in your head.
Good night Malcolm oh temporary comrade.
67. I was truely a fantastic day when “LORD” Archer was sent down!
Thank god the Tories have never been tempted to ease him back into the fold.
71 But they aren’t doing either.
I agree Dan. One more go and the Tories have to lose Spelman.
What is interesting is that the Tory halo has shifted to its renegade, one parent family, working class, folk hero. Team Cameron on the other hand - just a bunch of toffs with their nannies paid for by the public purse when with their big houses in the country when surely they could afford to pay out of their own pockets.
73 - touched a raw nerve eh? Spelman should be toast and it’s interesting to see few Tories prepared to defend her.
On this issue and the H&H by-election it’s clear that the Tory leadership is two faced - incredibly loyal to the crook Spelman and incredibly disloyal to the ‘hero’ Davis.
Funny set of priorities the Notting Hill set.
Now ROD, contain you excitment. I know you’ve been waiting for this all day, and its the only reason you’ve not gone to bed yet. But, DavidDavisForFreedom has gone live;
http://www.daviddavisforfreedom.com/
Crick backed the wrong horse and is too arrogant to admit it. He should have gone with the EU corruption scandals which broke just before his own lesser story, It’s purely a reflection of his ego and unfathomable when you put the two stories side by side.
78 - interesting to see not a single black or asian face on his website - very ‘un-Notting Hill’.
Well, on the front page anyway, Davis is the Freedom candidate, not a Tory.
69. So long as the Tories don’t backslide. It must annoy Cameron that Davis and Clegg are effectively writing his policy on civil liberties.
US Presidential News Flash
AP - McCain urges end to ban of offshore oil drilling
“Sen. John McCain said Monday the federal moratorium on offshore oil and gas drilling should be lifted, and individual states given the right to pursue energy exploration in waters near their own coasts.”
Well, there goes Washington (never in doubt, esp. after McC killed the Boeing-USAF tanker deal) and Oregon. And NOT a smart move re: Florida.
80 - Some of them look barely human given the resolution but I think I see two Asian faces.
79 Don’t know if there’s any polling, but would expect that the number of likely voters affected by Spellman’s Nannygate exceeds those affected by Euroklepticism.
84. I think so.
I think it looks a pretty good site, considering its been thrown together over a weekend. Not bad at all.
77. I think spelman will survive but will be damaged by the nanny stuff cos its a bit too long ago and it seems a bit old hat. but damaging a politico is a good result for her enemies.
as for Paul Lloyd, i love it, bring out the top hats and the toffs i say
78. He could have gone for a colour other than Tory Blue.
78. All I get is a parked domain page from UK2NET.
Very impressive
89. Perhaps the site owners are blocking you from entering?
89. Try clearing your internet cache/cookies. It worked for me.
90. so much for freedom then…
77. I keep saying it Dan, but the Tory Online Echo Chamber (The Toecers) won’t admit that they have made a huge tactical mistake bigging up Davis. The best thing for the Tory Party right now was to keep the spotlight firmly on the Government. The worst thing for them is to have the spotlight on them. And now they have this runaway train to deal with. One that forces them to have real positions on something. Make commitments.
And then thrown into the mix is a minor scandal that plays up all the aspects that they want to play down at a time when fears of belt tightening are the driving force behind the movements in voters - priviledge, mansions, nannies, tax payer’s cash being wasted.
It’s a bit of a mess for the Tories.
C.Gifford Please brush up on your reading skills.
The DD site says, quite clearly: “I am fighting this by-election as the Conservative candidate, but on vital national issues that transcend party politics.”
87. I really don’t think you understand Jimbo. What Labour did in Crewe was crass, because it did not have a juxtaposition to contrast it with. What Davis has done is provided that juxtaposition.
Two Types of Tory. The working class hero who stands up for his country and what he believes in, and the toffs who are more willing to defend the woman who uses taxpayer’s money to pay for her nanny than stand on the frontline. And at a time when things are tough for ordinary folk.
95. I think you are trying a bit too hard with this one.
93. Oh good grief!
Firstly, theres absolutely no reason at all the spotlight can’t be on BOTH Labour and the Tories!
Secondly, for months, infact years, Labour and Lib’s have been whinging that nobody knows what the Tories stand for. Actually defining what the Conservatives are all about has been the missing link for ages. Its so craven to assume that you can’t tell the public what your views and opinions are.
Thirdly, by ducking the debate, its Brown and Labour that look weak. Infact, they will look so bad that I still can’t believe they will do so. I still think, in the end, they will put someone up.
Fourthly, supposing everything you say is true, which I don’t think it is, drawing attention to what this government did last week is still the right thing to do. Some things are more important that party political gain.
re 89/90 possible that your ISP still doesn’t have the new address for the site. They will have changed this when the domain went live but can take a while to filter down through the various bits of the internet.
93. good analysis. The most asinine Tory stunt since the Clarke-Redwood “pact”.
How come Michael Crick never does an investigation into Labour MP’s?
I think Crick has done Tories on quite a few occasions and LD’s from time to time but he seems to always go after the Tories? Fair enough he exposes percieved *wrong doing* but the westminster stables has plenty of shit inside it and the Labour horse seems to have had serious problems with it’s digestive system in the last few years and caused most of the stench!
Article on Media Guardian re Kelvin MacKenzie contains the following:
“News International executives are understood to be wary of fielding a candidate against the Conservative party, which could interfere with the Sun’s policy to always back the winner of election campaigns.
Another factor is said to have been James Murdoch, the News Corporation chairman and chief executive, Europe and Asia, who runs News International and is reasonably friendly with the Conservative party leader, David Cameron, and the shadow chancellor, George Osborne.” …………….
(Andrew) “Neil said Murdoch was reluctant to go into battle against the Conservative party.
“He doesn’t want to pick a fight with the Tories. Murdoch thinks they are going to be the next government and he wants to be on the winning side,” he added.”
(Posting without link as previous attempts to post have not appeared).
95 Paul Lloyd “What Labour did in Crewe was crass, because it did not have a juxtaposition to contrast it with. What Davis has done is provided that juxtaposition.”
Good luck with that, if Labour gather their courage to have a candidate and try that tactic.
Can you get a negative vote in a by election? It would be a good attempt, though.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/poll-finds-public-backs-davis-on-42day-detention-848491.html
Poll finds public backs Davis on 42-day detention
Strange reporting of the figures, polls always strip out won’t votes. In essence with a 60% turnout (quite probable for a general election nowadays) Davis would get a 60% vote nationwide.
Read it and weep Rod (there will now follow some frantic scrabbling around and twisting of figures to prove that white equals black).
On 42 Days (the issue with supposedly overwhelming support) it is 44% against, 55% for apparently, Close enough given this has only just begun.
Voters most likely to support 42 days are old men (naturally
)
77. Touched a raw nerve it what way?
Proving you try to make something out of nonsense is something I am comfortable with.
However when I address the incorrect facts on which you base your asumptions you restort to teenage hurrmphing. The discomfort is not mine.
81. Tory Party candidate, Tory Party helpers….get over it.
FYI local Tory areas were put on stand by at 9 am to offer support and help before the Davis statement. It was HIS decision and his alone but he was not cut off. This wouldn’t have happened without a nod from the top. Were they cross? Yes, probably. Did they intend to leave him swinging in the wind? No.
Sorry I can’t give you a squabble story.
Anyway am off to bed now with happy thoughts like Malcolm that there are good lefties and righties out there and that bullying New Labour is increasingly isolated.
Whenever Gordon plays cynical politics it seems to turn to dust, eventually.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4152193.ece
“We’re sick of our whoopsadaisy political class”
101. The brilliance of David Davis’s actions can be seen that just a few days in, he’s already made the Murdoch empire (and Kelvin M in particular) look stupid and shown up how out of touch the vast majorty of the “Westminster Village” is. Not to mention making Brown look weak and cowardly (which everyone already knew he was, but its been further reinforced) And we’re not even a week in.
95. Only problem with the Nanny thing is it is 10 years ago!
Normally files are distroyed after 7 years maximum! Frankly the Tory Chairperson may be guilty as hell but the paper trail has expired. I don’t expect the commitee that is investigating her to do anything but say it notes peoples concern but given the time frame……….
If it had been a few years ago she would be out on her ear but a ‘black’ mark against her when she was a backbench MP a decade ago, not much you do about that really. It’s just a politically inspired sop from the BBC because politics at a national level has become too critical of Labour. Interestingly i rate this as less of a problem to David Cameron now than i did Hariet Harmen sending her kids to “selective” schools when Blair was leader of the opposition. It did not hurt Blair and i don’t think it will hurt Cameron. John Mann MP, wants to be careful - sometimes it is better to say nothing, than look as though you are grandstanding!
102. If I was Labour, and I am not, I would not stand. They got 12% in the GE didn’t they? They are pretty likely to lose even if Davis campaigned on free bus passes for Daleks. Far better to say that you are not going to be drawn into Mr Davis’ farce.
That strategy has got to be the best for Labour on that specific situation - after all, who is going to attack them for not doing it? Cameron? He has said it is a personal issue and basically he is on his own. The Lib Dems? Well they aren’t standing either.
No leave him, Don Quixote like tilting at the Cow Girl, the Tabloid Hack and the Fruit and Veg man.
No I am talking long term. Soames might be a big old windbag, but he is right to say that Politics is a team game, and Davis has gone off on one by himself. The best thing to do for the Tories would have been to let him go merrily on his way to oblivion - which is what Cammy and the rest tried to do. But some footsoldiers have turned him into a folk hero, and now he is an unknown quantity. This has long term consequences for the Conservative Party.
Re 103, UKPaul, it is a start. A very good start.
He is clearly moving the debate, and the terms of the debate. very good.
Witan, for a moment you made me doubt my reading skills. But no. On the opening page of Davis’s website there is no mention of the fact that he is standing as a Conservative. Unless it is in microscopic print.
This is very sensible of him, if he is wishing to attract an anti-Government-authoritarianism coalition.
It will make it more difficult for the TOECERS (Tory Online Echo Chamber) to spin this afterwards as a great triumph for Cameron; but it does strengthen Davis’s authenticity. A bit.
108. It depends why you are in politics as to whether it is a team game or not. If you want to be a minister with all that crap that goes with it fair enough it is a team game. How *making* decisions given to you by the civil service is power is another question entirely.
If you want to change things “for the better” then a more individualistic approach has to be made. The LD’s are normally a party of *individuals* yhan the two major parties but what DD has shown is it is possible to bring a new dynamic into play whilst still supporting your party in campaigning against a broken society.
Liebermann Fiasco
This shows that the Senate Democrats were less than smart to accept their current semi-detached relationship, whereby he voted with them to organize the Senate but pisses on their shoes whenever he wants.
Instead of nursing this viper to their bossom, the Democrats should have expelled him from their midst bag and baggage. Then let the GOP organize the Senate. Would have been howls of outrage but the sense of the thing would have become clear pretty soon. Cause it would have been Mitch McConnell standing their explaining why nothing much was happening. Thus giving the GOP a larger share of the blame for congressional constipation. Let the GOP take the heat, they deserve it.
108.”That strategy has got to be the best for Labour on that specific situation - after all, who is going to attack them for not doing it? Cameron? He has said it is a personal issue and basically he is on his own. The Lib Dems? Well they aren’t standing either.”
Err, its not just the political parties that need to be taken into account. How about the public and the media, they might feel they have the right to attack the government who is pushing these illiberal laws through parliament in their name?
As for the Conservatives, well David Davis is seeking re election as a Conservative MP, the party line is the same this week as it was last week when Davis led their position on 42 days. And that is your problem. The Libdems are not standing because their position is essentially the same, but Labour’s position is directly opposed and it does not look decisive or strong to run away from a genuine debate which gives the public the deciding vote.
C.Gifford. I have been wondering when the Toecers were going to trip themselves up. They have become an incredible force recently, obliterating debate, swamping online forums and forcing other opinions out of the way. But there is little coherence about what they say, and when they are challenged, they merely try to shout their opponents down.
But on this issue some of the Toecers have taken a different line from their leaders. And that makes it complicated. Echo chambers only work with simple phrases repeated over and over. This situation is a little more complex.
110.”It will make it more difficult for the TOECERS (Tory Online Echo Chamber)”
Oh here is another childish nickname to add to the Tory Lexicon on this site which is supposed to be frequented by adults.
ChrisD. I don’t have a problem. I am a Liberal Democrat. I don’t want 42 days detention (and a whole host of other civil liberties issues, some of which David Davis does not see fit to support).
The Conservative Party do have a problem. They have a major member of their front bench going off at a tangent, attacking the ‘Westminster Village’, by which he includes the leaders of his own party who basically cut him adrift, seemingly setting up a populist personal powerbase that is separate from that of his party.
Labour had more of a problem before Davis went off on one. Now they have had the heat off them for over a week. Brown has had his first breather for months.
Populism always looks great at the outset. But it turns sour. It should never, be mistaken for popularity or democracy.
116 - Giving Brown breathing space is most definitely not good for labour. The longer he survives the better the chance he will become the sacrifice at the next election.
116.”Populism always looks great at the outset. But it turns sour. It should never, be mistaken for popularity or democracy.”
Gordon Brown stood at the despatch box and said the public backed him on the issue of 42 days detention, he used the polls to back up his point because this policy was not in his manifesto and therefore not given a mandate at a GE. Lets not forget the extremely shoddy way that the vote was won in the HoC.
David Davis by contrast has decided to question the populist opinion being expressed in the polls by democratic means.
I think you make a interesting point, you just got it the wrong way round. At the next GE, any party wishing to form a government with a healthy majority will need to rely on that popular vote because their core vote will not be enough.
118.”Labour had more of a problem before Davis went off on one. Now they have had the heat off them for over a week. Brown has had his first breather for months.”
I should add, that again, turnout in by elections in Henley and H&H will be the key in the upcoming weeks. Has Gordon Brown had his first breather for months? Or, have the public been getting fed up with the fact that their extremely unpopular PM was neither elected in a contest by his party or given his own mandate at GE?
The Scots and the Welsh got the chance to vote last year to change the status quo, London and C&N did just weeks ago. Will that resonate with the public, or are they just bored by politics all together, so don’t care?
This article by Frank Fisher in the Guardian is worth a read.
“This Westminster media bubble stifles debate, it excludes innovation, it entrenches established power and feeds partisan reporting. It is as guilty as the painfully orthodox and power-hungry politicians of corrupting and devaluing our democratic process. In failing to transmit and understand the concerns of ordinary people, it weakens any claim to sovereignty Westminster might have, and thereby strengthens any claims outside it. Simply put, it’s dull, dumb, and it’s pissing people off.”
Judging by the response on here and other political blogs, not forgetting various have your say vehicles on the internet, TV and radio. I think his is correct.
103: I hate to live down to your prediction of spin, but I don’t think the poll really tells us the public supports Davis on 42 days, or that they don’t - it seems to suggest that many are bemused, with 33% saying they wouldn’t vote at all. A plurality would vote for him against A.N. Others, but who knows if it’s because the Tories are ahead anyway or they like DD or they oppose 42 days?
The US polls look quite close considering the general belief here that Obama is a massive favourite. My recollection from previous US elections is that predicting sure wins from calculating electoral college votes rarely works out - if one guy is ahead in the national vote he’s sure to be at least very close in the college. Obama looks a deserved favourite, but surely not more than 4-6?
120 - With due respect to an honourable member and pber, the view of the Great British Public will be of interest but hardly determinitive in the election of the next President of the United States.
Of course yer great-grandad was still in shortpants when the Murchison Letter was penned. But yer father might recollect the surprise across the UK in November 1944 to discover that millions of Americans actually voted against FDR; what were they thinking?
Still every indication that 2008 will be a banner Democratic year, up and down the ballot from the White House to Congress to statehouses and courthouses. Fundamentals are
1. extreme Bush fatigue
2. toxic GOP brand
3. recession/depression (depending on your zip code & bank balance)
Presidential specific factors (plus or minus for Dems)
+ Obamania
- White racism/reluctance (call it what you will)
+ Black racism/solidarity (ditto)
- McCain hero & defender of freedom
+ McCain the Iraq war hawk
+ McCain the quirky codger
- Obama the elitist Afro Christian Muslim with leftwing fascist masonic syndicalist tendancies
+ Obama the future
- McCain the past
Issue factors (plus or minus for Dems)
+ GOP anti-immigrant record (R gain from stressed Whites not equal to Latino loss)
+ GOP reluctance to raise taxes for rich or cut them for rest
- Dem association with raising taxes for everybody
+ GOP anti-enviromental record
- Dems considered weak and/or ineffective on defense and/or terrorism
+ GOP anti-civil rights record (bad with lefties and libertarian right)
+ alienation of conservative Christians from GOP politics, waining of wedge social issues
- gay marriage IF California anti-gay marriage initiative catches fire
+ butter (economy) trumps guns (NRA) if economy stays bad
+ Dem national convention: Obama Bounce
- GOP national convention: 4 More Years
+ Best funded Democratic presidential campaign in history (because they are flush)
- Dirtiest Republican campaign in history (because they are desperate)
You can cross some out, put more in. Still adds up to Democratic year.
121 - in above, “McCain the past” is a plus for Dems
On-topic, great words of wisdom in the comments of Kevin Drum’s blog by someone called “Doozer”:
Or it could be another example of Doozer’s 2nd Law; “Far more messages are recieved than are ever actually sent”.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_06/013921.php#1282870
Another commentor there also says that Solis Doyle has Chicago roots and is a longtime friend of David Axelrod which, if true, makes this even more unsurprising.
Very unlikely Obama was ever going to pick Hillary in the first place, for reasons that have been done to death here; Just to add that the way things are panning out, it seems like most Clinton supporters are coming around to Obama, and most of the ones who aren’t probably wouldn’t support the ticket unless Hillary was at the top of it in any case.
I’m a bit late to the party, but Ben Smith is certainly correct that the hiring of Solis Doyle was a sure sign that the idea of Clinton as VP is not being taken seriously. I’m actually not quite sure why the Obama campaign picked her up as Solis Doyle is a pretty big screw-up in political organizing (financially, anyway: see below), but she won’t be doing anything until Obama has a VP choice anyway and may simply be filling in until the VP candidate is chosen.
As some may recall, the Clinton campaign made Solis Doyle the fall-girl for Clinton’s financial struggles at the beginning of the primary season, which means she has as much bitterness at them as they do at her. Of course, blaming Solis Doyle was not without merit, but her new position does not put her in charge of any major campaign spending.
Of course, the main impact is on Mark Penn and company, who bet all their money on Clinton and lost. Penn and Solis Doyle were enemies even while both working in Clinton’s campaign (and each had their own faction in Clinton’s inner circle), so this is particularly painful for him and his allies.
Is David Davis still an MP yet? [sic]
I have heard conflicting reports that he was intending to resign on Monday and Wednesday.
“It’s a bit of a mess for the Tories”
I’m sure they’re heartbroken to be leading by just 18/22%.
100. 1986 Michael Crick wrote a Faber paperback on Militant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crick
Might raise a couple of eyebrows.
Over at CiF
Getting from ‘no’ to ‘yes’
“Europe must now work with Ireland to resolve its objections to the Lisbon Treaty”
“Ireland has said “no”, but there are 26 other EU member states in Europe whose opinion matters too. It is inconceivable that all of the others will simply say “too bad - one country has said ‘No’ to the package as it stands, so let’s forget reform and stick with the current system for ever more”.
All member states want reform. Even the ‘No’ campaigners in Ireland claimed they want to negotiate a better package. So, what is to be done? First, Ireland must have a profound internal debate to identify precisely what it doesn’t like about the Lisbon Treaty. Presumably it is not the extra powers for parliaments, nor the clearer focus on combating climate change, but some other aspects.”