How would Hillary react to another woman being chosen?
June 16th, 2008
Would Sebelius on the ticket be the ultimate insult?
It’s not surprising, given the nature of the primary contest, that of the top three in the Democratic VP betting two are women.
Hillary (4/1), of course, is still up there and there continues to be a lot being said on her behalf. Given that this does not need to be announced until the end of August it would be easier by then for Barack to choose his former opponent without suggestions that it was forced upon him.
There are, of course, lots of negatives though this piece by Ed Kilgore in Salon today makes a strong case on the former First Lady’s behalf.
But if not Hillary then what about Kathleen Sebelius (7/1) - the Governor of Kansas who, herself, was tipped as a potential candidate for President after Kerry’s defeat. In January she was chosen by the Party’s congressional leaders to give the to Bush’’s to Republican President George W. Bush’s State of the Union Address and made a key endorsement of Obama week before Super Tuesday.
But it’s now being argued that it if Obama wants a woman on the tickets it would be hard to choose anybody else but Hillary.
In an article at the weekend on Slate Christopher Beam set the scene: “In the fantasy baseball game known as the Veepstakes, Kathleen Sebelius appears to be the complete package. She’s a popular Democratic governor in a red state. She stood up to out-of-state insurers to keep health care premiums down. She delivered the Democratic response to this year’s State of the Union address. And, best of all for Barack Obama, she’s a woman. What better way to win over disaffected Clinton supporters?…Or piss them off…..
Picking Sebelius wouldn’t be an olive branch, a Clinton backer is quoted as saying it would be an insult: “If Senator Obama has a problem with women, putting a woman on a ticket is not going to get him their votes.” Here it gets paradoxical. It would be OK if Obama picked a man—that’s just business as usual. “Jim Webb is not a slap in the face to Hillary,” she says. “Sebelius is.”"
That maybe overstating it and I got a nice bet on Kathleen when she was 10/1.
This will keep us occupied for months.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Let me guess… BADLY.
She was soul-destroyingly dull giving the response to the State of the Union.
This is partially the reason why choosing Sarah Palin for the GOP would be a bad mistake. However, choosing Condi Rice would still be ok because she has her own group of support which is distinct from Hillary supporters.
Can I just say that is so funny! I would just love Obama to pick her over Clinton!
“How would Hillary react to another woman being chosen?”
Lots and lots and lots of swearie words I should imagine…
She answers the Richardson proposition that as neither Clinton or Obama have executive experience a Governor would add value to the ticket (Richardson of course had a different Governor in mind) though she is another Mid West politician.
Would seem a bit of a slap in Clinton’s face.
Ladbrokes current position on this one. We’ve laid about 20 different runners and our worst results, in order, are;
Gore 16/1
Dodd 14/1
Clarke 16/1
Clinton 4/1
Webb 7/2
Sebelius 5/1.
Karl Rove tipped up Joe Biden (14/1) on Fox News yesterday. I’ve backed Biden and Sam Nunn.
I think Sebelius *could* work as Obama’s VP - she’d be better than Clinton in many ways, as she doesn’t come with all Clinton’s baggage (or power base) and might help appeal to women voters (and Kansans). But it’s certainly true that Clinton would hate that choice, as it would seem like a massive insult to her - and it’s also true that Sebelius doesn’t bring the national name recognition that Clinton does.
For various reasons, as the Slate article mentions, Obama might actually be better off picking a man for VP, one with enough experience to deserve the position on their own merit. That would look less like a snub to Clinton supporters (though it still would be) - and moreover, would help appeal to the so-called ‘white working class’ that Obama supposedly has problems with. For all the talk of ‘will women voters support Obama?’, I think that’s a red herring - the groups he really needs to focus on winning are white and Hispanic men.
(And by the way - the first link in this post, to Salon, doesn’t work. Here’s the actual link: http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/06/16/hillary_yes/)
So now some Slate pundit wants to turn the presidential race into a soap opera?
For months feminists, Clintonistas and many thoughtful commentators have been decrying the misogynistic bent of politicos, journos and (mostly male) citizenry when it comes to Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.
Question: isn’t saying (in effect) that Sen. Clinton is the only qualified woman canidate for the presidential ticket demeaning to over half of the American poplation . . . minus one?
#286 Previous thread - thanks for the heads-up Nick.
Posted this on the last thread but thought it was worth repeating.
From the Devil’s Kitchen a nice quote on how the Romanians see the Irish No Vote
Referenda and Democracy
The EU has now accumulated significant (bad) experiences with
referenda. It was very delicately yet effectively communicated
by the Romanian social-democrat MEPs: “The referendum in
Ireland has demonstrated that direct democracy (by way of referendum) cannot ensure the progress of the European process.
The security, liberty and prosperity of hundreds of millions of
European citizens ask for complex leadership actions, which cannot be appreciated by heterogeneous populations, from the point of view of the information level and the education one.
European integration is a process that must be conducted politically
by the elected representatives of the European citizens.”
11 - Breathtaking arrogance. Entirely predictable.
Why would Obama do something designed to upset Mrs Clinton and her supporters when he’s having difficulties already holding onto them?
11. The European process is fundamentally anti-democratic. Always has been, always will be. It is about removing power from national electorates and giving it to an unaccountable supernational elite.
Up until now, the EU elite has banked on the voters not noticing this. Now, they are being quite brazen about it, and are simply hoping the voters don’t care.
11 as posted earlier - some of the European politicians seem actually to just want to recreate COMECON
Hillary would just burst into flames if another woman were chosen - the resulting fire damage might well include Bills remaining hair
Bill’s Bouffant- lacking Bouffe
7 From my humble perspective, think Obama would be ill-advised to pick one of the ususal Beltway suspects as his VP pick. All these guys carry their political baggage in steamer trunks. Plus the optics are terrible for the candidate of change.
So if I’m right, that will scratch the likes of Biden & Dodd from Obama’s dance card.
Which essentially leaves three options:
1. Hillary - ain’t gonna happen
2. Defense and/or Foreign Policy Heavy: Wes Clarke & Sam Nunn are in this category. Know many who think this route is a must for Obama due to his lack in this area combined with a dangerous world and W’s very itchy trigger finger. But I think that the actually names being touted are pretty weak politically; for example, Clarke is a political lightweight while Nunn is a blast from the now distant past.
3. Non-Beltway Governor - this would introduce some executive cred to the ticket while underlining its anti-Beltway message. In addition to Sebelius, Gov. Strickland of Ohio would appear to be a strong candidate.
4. Combo Play - two biggest examples are Richardson & Webb. But having a two-minority ticket might be too much of a good thing. So Webb looks like a real possible to me.
5. Gore - has some natural appeal, but the drawbacks outweigh it: Gore would be another return to the future; and why would he want to reprise his role as 2nd Fiddle to the Leader of the Free World?
YouGov/Sunday Times; Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sample size: 134; Fieldwork: 12-13 June 2008
Lab 30% (-9%); SNP 28% (+10%); Con 23% (+7%); LD 16% (-7%)
Giving, according to the Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator:
Lab 38 seats (-2 seats); LD 10 seats (-1 seat); SNP 9 seats (+3 seats); Con 1 seat (n/c); Speaker 1 seat (n/c)
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/STresults080613.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html
Quite why the Sunday Times and YouGov were asking Scottish and Welsh repondents questions about the English NHS is a bit of a mystery:
- “In recent cases the government has ruled that people who pay for additional cancer drugs should lose their right to free NHS cancer treatment.”
Err… no it hasn’t, because the Scottish Government is responsible for the Scottish NHS, and has made no such ruling, AFAIAA. (Snap with Wales and the Welsh Assembly Government.)
- “The government wants to set up larger ‘one stop’ polyclinics… “
Err… no it hasn’t, because the Scottish Government is responsible for the Scottish NHS, and wants no such thing, AFAIAA. (Snap with Wales and the Welsh Assembly Government.)
Apart from being highly confusing to the Scottish and Welsh respondents, does this kind of cock-up not distort the overall findings and risk bringing the polling industry into disrepute?
Really don’t think Hillary is as shallow as is being purported.
From her perspective, don’t think it’s going to matter what gender or species Obama’s VP is going to be . . . if it’s she’s not it.
So if Sen. Clinton’s personal feelings are the litmus test, guess the Dems will just have to leave the VP spot blank!
17 Stuart. Yippee !!!!!!!!!!!! Sample size 134 !!!!!!!!!!!
On Thread. First rule - Do No Harm.
Today’s latest Rasmussen on Kansas - McCain +10 - makes Sebelius an interesting choice in a red state.
As for intra-Democratic in-fighting, etc.
NOTE that this is a long & proud tradition of my party. Especially in good Democratic years. Thus its a sign of strength, not weakness.
What is really important is what happens immediately before, during and after the national Democratic convention in Denver.
IF the years 1932 and 1992 are a guide, the convention will be a tremendous success for the Democrats. (This is what the NYT’s GOP VIP pundit David Brooks has been saying for weeks.) True, the convention itself will be a staged TV spectacular. But the positive feelings & emotions engendered will be very real.
So stay tuned to see if the scenario above plays out. And in the meantime, keep taking huge grains of salt whenever the topic of discussion is Democratic angst.
OT Posted in the last thread, David Davis writes for ConHome;
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2008/06/david-davis-bri.html
Go That Man!
18. This has nothing to do with Clinton and everything to do with her little cult who have decided to throw temper tantrums. The reality is that nothing Obama actually does will make them vote or not vote for him. They either will, or they won’t. But they’re also, despite getting a lot of press, an extremely small minority essentially irrelevant to the election. For that reason, this kind of childish protestations and the various reports about them are nothing but nonsense noise regarding VP choices.
I think Sebelius is the most likely to be tapped, but I am uncomfortable in providing betting advice where the market is so wide open.
I do think that “security credentials” candidates are highly overvalued; Obama has made it clear in the past that he believes himself to have the security credentials and lack the economic credentials. Given McCain’s weakness on the latter front, and it being forefront in the minds of most Americans (and generally those who care more about Iraq are the most diehard opponents of the war), I cannot see Obama throwing away his VP choice on a military or other foreign affairs candidate. He has much greater opportunity to assault McCain on domestic issues.
@17:
Mr Dickson, I can’t help noticing that you seem recently to developed a habit of drawing meaningless conclusions from polls whose sample sizes are so small as to be stastically meaningless.
Don’t make Mike have to send a claque of PBC’s more militant psephologists up there to dispense some harsh but fair summary justice.
17. Lib Dems up 6% in a week! (They were on 10% in Stuart’s previous micro-sample).
Stuart, you really ought to base your +/- figures on the previous poll from the same source.
You would make a terrible greengrocer, not being to able to tell oranges from apples.
Has Strickland got some baggage? On paper he’d bring Ohio into play, Sebelius would not bring Kansas or any other mid west states (possibly Missouri but maybe not).
Webb seems like a fiery cannon and was Reagan’s Secretary of Navy, how would that play to the base - and not certain to bring in Virginia.
Nunn - he was a big honcho in the Senate, in the 1980s…
Richardson, Gore, Hillary-no for a variety of reasons I think.
Wes Clarke? Forget “trigger happy” GWB, he wanted to start shooting up Russian paratroopers in Kosovo in 1999. Maybe the Republicans can air a Goldwater style “why not win” video featuring Wes Clarke.
So all have “negatives”.
btw-do US polls factor in the Bradley effect? If Obama is up 4 on McCain only 2% have to be “shy” and don’t want to be seen as being racist by saying McCain for it to be a deadheat. My guess is there are more than 2%.
17-Irrespective of the sample size, I think Tories on 23% in Scotland would give them more than 1 seat.
You just gotta love the biased BBC. A couple of days ago the BBC Trust was busy reporting that the BBC was too Anglocentric, and yet today, on the Today show on Radio 4, who do they ask to comment on the Scottish Government’s plans to increase the age for buying drink from off-licences in Scotland from 18 to 21? Peter Fahy, the Chief Constable of Cheshire Constabulary, and Gavin Partington, a London PR stoodge of the drinks industry.
It truly is beyond parody.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7457089.stm
24- Maybe we should start polling! Come on, lets all ring up 1000 Scots and ask them who they are going to vote for.
I imagine like this:
http://www.i-mockery.com/halloween/greatest/pics/scanners4.gif
17, 19, 24 - what is the margin of error for 134 subset?
My guess is that MOE is maybe plus/minus 8% or thereabouts?
In other words, the sample is just big enogh to tell us something, but too small to bet the farm. However, the trend (not given in orginal post) should be more useful/reliable.
Is this logic basically correct?
29. That sounds like cruel and unusual punishment
27. Peter2′ - “I think Tories on 23% in Scotland would give them more than 1 seat.”
Agreed.
I said a while back now that I thought the Scottish Tories would be pushing up towards the 24-25% mark soon (I always mentally add about 3% to any Scottish Tory poll finding). Looks like we are beginning to see it. Certain Labour MPs (Jim Murphy springs to mind) ought to start dusting off their CVs.
17 It’s an error on electoral calculus. That sort of swing would see the Conservatives pick up Dumfries & Galloway, Edinburgh North, South, and South West, Stirling, Argyll, Berwickshire and Roxburgh, and East Renfrewshire. But the sample size is too small to mean anything.
26. Strickland has ruled himself out with a fairly definitive rejection. My feeling is that if Obama is comfortably ahead by August he will take absolutely no chances and go with someone white, male and dull. e.g. Nunn
McCain is much more likely to be in a position where he’s got to do something to shake things up, which is why I still like Bobby Jindal’s chances.
31. Sea Shanty Irish - “Is this logic basically correct?”
Yes. It is the long-term trend that really matters. And the trend is crystal clear.
@31:
For Mr Dickson’s poll with sample size of 134, the 95% confidence intervals would be:
SNP: 20.4%-35.7%
Con: 15.9%-30.2%
Which is to say, next to bloody useless.
I hope she is the veep. I was the only one who put her down on the PBC prediction for vice president at the end of last year (I think). I know I’m not going to get the glory of winning the whole shebang, maybe that’ll be my one consolation.
Won’t be able to make the do on Thursday unfortunately so for all of you who are going to the National Liberal Club have a great time.
17.I read with interest the news in the press and elsewhere that we have free prescr1pt1ons in Scotland, not true. I jokingly pointed out to our local chemist that if its in the papers, it must be true….
Does nobody feel like responding to my query at 17?
- “… does this kind of cock-up not distort the overall findings and risk bringing the polling industry into disrepute?”
31 No. (a) small sample size, with a big margin of error and (b) quite likely unrepresentative of Scotland’s demographics. Pollsters are only interested in ensuring that their 1-2,000 voters are representative of the UK as a whole, not any particular part of it.
It’s a pity there is so little proper Scottish polling.
@40:
It’s not a cock-up to ask people what they think. It *might* be a cock-up to read more into the data than they support, but then you’d appear to know all about that.
O/T - Back to the running joke that is the EU.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7457218.stm
When will these people learn?
A new Gallup poll indicates that by 52/41 US voters expect Obama to win in November :
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107995/Americans-Predict-Obama-Will-Next-US-President.aspx
43. Again, it looks more and more like the Soviet Union,…
40 Would be easier to complain if Scotland (like Northern Ireland) used another name for it’s health service - something like Scots Health or perhaps an ethnic/nationalist brand “Slainte”.
Trevor Kavenagh’s article in the Sun appeared to indicate a change of heart at Murdoch Towers?
Murdoch steps down from the fight
“Murdoch has no great love for David Cameron or the Cameroon Tories. But he’s concluded that they are going to form the next government, and Murdoch always likes to be on the side of the winners. So why pick an unnecessary fight with them? Why fall out with the likely winners of the next general election?”
A 19-year-old man has been arrested in Bristol under the Terrorism Act, police have said
What is the liklihood that they will release him reluctantly on the day before the H&M election without charge saying they would have preferred to hold him longer - for at least 42 days
35 Shadsy, when it comes to Pres or VP, the only “ruling out” by a potential nominee that’s worth more than a warm pitcher of piss is what Gen. Sherman said: “If nominated I will not run, if elected I will not serve.”
Don’t know context or exact verbiage of Strickland’s statement. My guess is that it may have as much to do with internal Buckeye/Statehouse politics as the national picture or the Gov’s own predilictions. But you have a point, in that a truly reluctant candidate is less likely to get the nod.
Dull (and certainly White) makes sense for Obama. But dull and beltway may not compute.
Gov. Jindal would be a very interesting pick for McCain. But I wonder what they’d say & think in Louisiana? As grad of LSU and Democrat who would have voted for Jindal last fall, because LA surely needs a good governor right now, would regard him jumping to the GOP ticket as a betrayal of the Pelican State. However, down on the bayou the feeling might be more of pride than sorrow.
Nationally Bobby Jindal would be a sensation. A positive one UNLESS he stumbled out of the gate, as did poor Dan Quayle. But think that much less likely in Jindal’s case.
45. Sorry the EU are easing restrictions & making them more user friendly & that make’s it more like the USSR? Have I misunderstood that the Soviet Union was a command centralising undemocratic economy & that it wss in fact a neo-liberal capitalist state?
46. But then people would complain about the money wasted on ‘re-branding’.
@47:
Piss. I was really looking forward to helping Davis wipe the floor with that odious bovine-faced troll.
David Cameron is on about green issues again
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4149030.ece
“Mr Cameron said he wanted to see energy bills reveal the average consumption of similar households so that neighbourly peer pressure would ensure people tried to consume more efficiently. Each house would also have smart metres allowing homeowners to see how much energy they were consuming minute-by-minute.”
What’s it got to do with my neighbours how much I spend on energy? Sounds like Big Brother. It’ll be meters on dustbins next. Has DD heard about this?
499 SSI. Strickland used the Sherman statement exactly. Mind you the trainer of this year’s Derby winner (Epsom not Kentucky) said pretty much the same thing about his horse three weeks before the race and then changed his mind, so we haven’t taken Strickland out of the betting yet.
Ed Rendell would be a particularly pleasing outcome for West Wing fans.
13. Actually, recent polling evidence suggests that women are already moving heavily towards Obama. When it comes to the two candidates positions on abortion and healthcare, Obama has a clear advantage over McCain.
16. Strickland has definitively ruled himself out.
Iain Dale is angry at the attacks on David Davis’s gay rights voting record.
David Davis and Gay Rights
53: Read the article before posting next time.
26. The roots love Jim Webb. Democrats generally feel that they have a deficit to the GOP when it comes to manliness and military credentials (part of the reason they picked Kerry).
55: You are making a false assumption that her supporters are all women.
53.”What’s it got to do with my neighbours how much I spend on energy? Sounds like Big Brother. It’ll be meters on dustbins next. Has DD heard about this?”
TOC, that misleading headline has already been spotted and dissected at ConHom.
Realistic environmentalism
”
Yep, just checked with Greg Barker’s office. The Times have got it wrong. Cameron’s reply to the question after the speech was more accurate than the bit in the speech.
Basically, people will be given estimates of what the typical energy consumption is for people like them based on their area, the size of their house and the size of their family.
Thanks Chris - I noted Alan Duncan was there as well later on but I’ll tweak the bit about Cameron’s tribute so as not to confuse.
Posted by: Deputy Editor | June 16, 2008 at 16:34″
If Cameron is moving towards the compulsory installation of meters on dustbins and encouraging neighbours to snoop on one another, then thank goodness for David Davis.
The Tories really are stupid, aren’t they? They simply cannot get their act together.
61 well you are about to have 20 years to find out.
61, perhaps you’d be best getting an idea of what’s been said and then making up your mind, instead of making up your mind and then deciding what you want to have been said.
The idea Cameron has is to send round an average bill for a comparable household so that families can see if they’re spending more or less than average. That’s not encouraging neighbours to snoop on one another now, is it?
And yes, the Tories really are silly. Fancy Davis galvanising everyone from Tim Collins to Shami Chakrabarti, picking up a few Labour MPs along the way, and Cameron consistently having double-digit leads.
Muppets.
61. Bless!
56 ChrisD. Not too sure that Mrs Dale is doing DD much good. It’s a matter of record that DD’s gaydar rating is poor. It just appears as if DD is ok with his close gay friends enjoying civil rights but not the rest of the gay diaspora.
Perchance some might say DD isn’t quite the noble man of principle as painted recently …. I couldn’t possibly comment !!
53 - Cameron is “on about green issues again” for precisely the same reason as McCain is. They want to win the next election. And figures that when that rolls around Tory/GOP “old codgers” will go along to get along.
BTW do you live on Planet Earth? In which case, what I do affects you, and visa versa.
42.
I have no objection whatsoever to polling firms or clients asking respondents for their opinions. However, I strongly object to polling firms and clients blatantly mis-informing respondents, eg. saying to people who reside in Scotland or Wales: “The government wants to set up larger ‘one stop’ polyclinics… “.
Because that is simply a big, fat, dirty “untruth”. YouGov should think very, very hard about that kind of behaviour.
Re 60
Thanks for the clarification and the link Chris D. Much more helpful. Sounds more sensible now. I imagine that the meters could be incorporated into new housing in much the same way as water meters. What is the Times coming to?
Gordon Brown announces more troops to Afghanistan….. by …… 230…. oh that will make a difference. What a pathetic, shabby sop to a discredited President.
And Davis resignation is a stunt! What a total idiot Brown is.
From Iain Dale: “David [Davis]also played a part in the proceedings*, and I have been told by several people that he was seen to ‘well up’ a bit during the ceremony.”
* a civil partnership ceremony.
59. The other main constituencies are Hispanics (who are also moving over), and low income urban whites. (a) I don’t think the latter were either positively voting for Clinton (more voting for a white alternative to Obama) and (b) I don’t think many such people will be that concerned about Clinton’s being upstaged by another woman. Regardless, there are plenty of candidates that can win over that group better than Clinton.
I don’t think anyone’s pointed out John Edwards less then complete denial that he was still interested in the veep job over the weekend. He just said that he wasn’t “seeking” it.
“”Asked whether he’d rule out the possibility, Edwards said: “Well, I’d take anything he asked me to think about seriously, but obviously this is something I’ve done and it’s not a job that I’m seeking.”"
I think there’s value in Edwards.
35 - Jindal is dead in the water after the revelations of him being a student exorcist. There’s weird and there’s electorally damaging weird and that’s the latter.
49 - Strickland copied the Sherman formulation practically word for word.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 46%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108007/Gallup-Daily-Obama-46-McCain-42.aspx
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/2140055/David-Davis-delays-standing-down-to-challenge-Gordon-Brown-at-PMQs.html
“Mr Davis could find himself in the embarrassing position of fighting minor candidates such as Miss Great Britain and the Monster Raving Loony Party.
“He also appears increasingly isolated from the Conservative leadership, with William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, and Liam Fox, the shadow defence secretary, both publicly stating their opposition to his move.”
72. I think Edwards and Warner are both names that aren’t mentioned enough.
74. Interesting isn’t it how the political club join ranks when a mavrick takes them on!
Maybe Boris Johnson did the right thing in seeking a job where he is his own man. The problem with many political jobs these days is your lack of scope to present an independent point of view on so many issues. People say there would be chaos without whipping but would there? Of course you need political parties and some *general* similarities to get things done but surely common sense prevails if you are there to legislate?
75 - Warner went the Sherman route a few days ago.
Wolfgang Munchau of the FT (see previous thread!) may be a smelly europhile elitist, but he wasn’t wrong about the EU’s plan B.
It is what he said: simply to make Ireland vote again. And soon. And not even on a changed Treaty, just the same document with an added “declaration”.
http://tinyurl.com/565d4j
They parody themselves, these Europeans. They don’t even pretend to care about democracy any more.
I think Britain may just have to quit the whole damn thing.
74 Ah. That would be from the former Mirror journalist.
78 - Currently 5/2 with Paddy Power though… No reason not to make money from their idiocy
72. That exorcism thing is old news, no? And anyway, is it really any weirder than a lot of other mainstream religious behaviour or belief out there? Romney thinks that the garden of Eden was in Missouri.
65.”Perchance some might say DD isn’t quite the noble man of principle as painted recently”
Well JackW, he is certainly showing some strong principles on civil liberties. It makes a nice change from all the bad headlines about our politicians lack of them. No chance of giving him the benefit of the doubt on this? He has given up his shadow cabinet/possible ministerial career for the foreseeable future, and put his reputation on the line, that takes courage. Now if only Gordon could find some cojones and a principled cause his polls rating might stop tanking, come to think of it, the rest of the cabinet lack them too and that makes the government even weaker.
75 I can’t really see it being Sebelius or Edwards. Ok I can see it being Edwards, but I don’t think he delivers a State, or any significant constituency, and think he would be a much better bet if he hadn’t had teh job last time. Nunn might bring Georgia into play and help in Virginia (which would change the narrative) but he is a bit old. Rendell has quite a few negatives. Casey seems to offer quite a lot.
I like the cowboy Democrat from Montana, but I don’t think the 50 States strategy stretches that far.
78-If only!!
81 - It’s been getting quite a bit of play in the last few weeks, with the ‘do no harm’ principle I don’t think Jindal fits that. Same with Romney who may have played it well but, as per polling, is still electoral poison. I suspect that the Mormon beliefs are a part of that.
Although just as wacky, Huckabee at least fluffs up the GOP diehards and he may be a decent bet.
74 After the Telegraph in person of Rosa Prince definitively announcing David Davis would be stepping down today, then he didn’t, Andrew Porter then tried to follow up Ben Brogans story that he’ll wait until Wednesday. Think Benny boy is probably a better source than Mr Porter or Ms Prince.
Late, great Bill Deedes left a letter to his biographer to be opened after his death in which he tore into the Barclay twins for their policies of firing the journalists that made the Telegraph in preference to hiring from the Red Tops, and for their opposition to Cameron. seems Mr Deedes knew what he was talking about.
77. Do you have a link?
84. If they do force this Treaty through, despite the Irish No, the eurosceptic anger within the Tory party will be utterly combustible.
Cameron will HAVE to deratify, whatever he personally wants. Could be very very messy. He’d be on good legal grounds to revoke the Treaty - he could say the EU broke their own rules (unanimity), so the Treaty has no force - but it would set him up for long horrible battles with Brussels. But I think he’d have no choice, politically, but to go to war - his party would demand justice.
Maybe this is why Brown is forcing through ratification. He knows he’s gonna lose the election, so he’s handing on a poisoned chalice…
86 It’s just a flesh wound, isn’t it?
81. Part of the reason Romney’s presidential campaign failed!
87 - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/14/AR2008061401831.html?hpid=topnews
“Mark Warner Rejects VP Talk, Wants Senate Seat”
88, is the Lords’ vote today or tomorrow?
I saw Ed Numpty-Davey on the Daily Politics. Apparently the Lords should vote on the matter but it’s down to the government to stop ratification.
It’s reassuring to note that Clegg’s stance on Davis was random chance, rather than the start of becoming a leader with a brain.
82 ChrisD. I’ve, for me, given DD some benefit of the doubt, and called his 42 day Commons exit a political Reggie Perrin moment, which is I would suggest somewhat more generous that Conservative colleagues such as Fox and Soames (all gastronmic blessings be upon him) have opined.
88 - But the second referendum route would not offer the opportunity for outrage or tearing up of the script, indeed it could well avoid it and indeed may be the only way to salvage the treaty (if that’s what they want to do). Hence it solves lots of problems (if the Irish remember to vote the right way the second time) and, more importantly, is good value at 5/2.
Yorkshire bbc TV showing our flood victims still suffering one year on. Depression suicide bids, destruction of communities etc.
Gordon ‘does’ floods.
Does what exactly?
81. I was quite surprised how little coverage I saw of Romney’s faith during the campaign. It didn’t appear to have been as much of a drag as I would have thought.
Anyone see me on Eggheads a minute ago taking on the might of Judith Keppel at politics?
96. That reflects the media view, and the US media are more secular and thus don’t regard one religious view as any more bizarre than others. To evangelical Christians however, Mormonism is akin to satanism.
O/T - when is UK-Elect going to update their 2010 election forecast?
It’s at the top of Mikes links for election predictors since forever, but they’ve done b*gger all since October 2006.
Their current forecast is way out of date.
And they used to provide at least 2 forecasts a year. All the way back to 2000.
It’s a real shame because, IMO, they have the ergonomically friendly website, with some really nice maps - quite a beautiful election predictor
Anyone know why?
Come on UK Elect; update your site!!
86 The DT [esp the reliability of Ms Kite and Ms Prince] has been a regular topic recently on Con Home.
They regularly post the real quotes and ask you to compare and contrast.
Hennessey is OK. Otherwise, be sceptical.
As as been pointed out by a poster on ConHome, if the Times goes more Tory, the DT’s declining circulation figures will take a hammering. An increasing amount of its readership seems to be reluctant if the blogs are right.
94. As I bow to your superior knowledge of Irish politics, so you must submit to my finer insight into the mentality of British euroscepticism!
Trust me, if the EU forces Ireland to vote again and gets a Yes (whether on this Treaty or another) and thereby brings Lisbon into force, the anger within British eurosceptic circles (i.e. most of the Tory part, and increasingly beyond) will be incandescent.
Cameron will be obliged to deratify - to go to war with Brussels - right from the get-go of his premiership. It will be THE issue for a quite of lot of his voters, and a very large number of his activists.
He may not want this (I’m sure he doesn’t) but he won’t have any choice.
If I were Cameron I would be on the phone to the Taoiseach right now, imploring him to stand firm and reject a second vote, and reassuring him that a future Conservative British government will not let Ireland be isolated. Cammo needs Lisbon to fall now, even more than he did before.
97. I would have - if you’d said.
97 David R. And …. don’t leave us in suspenders ??
97 Will it be on iPlayer?
“Scotland’s appalling levels of drink and drug abuse are causing twice as many deaths as any other part of Britain, a shocking new report has revealed.”
http://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/48497/Scots-top-UK-death-league-
105 We have seen this on our ’southern’ news.
93 Jack W what exactly did Fox say about DD other than it was a personal decision? The telegraph added spin saying Fox said it was selfish, something Fox did not actually say.
11 “The security, liberty and prosperity of hundreds of millions of
European citizens ask for complex leadership actions, which cannot be appreciated by heterogeneous populations, from the point of view of the information level and the education one.
European integration is a process that must be conducted politically
by the elected representatives of the European citizens.”
That Soviet Union line is becoming mantra for the EUSSR.
@99.
Further to my comment on UKElect, if any Labour posters are feeling unhappy at the moment, why not drool over the April 2001 UK Election Forecast?
http://www.ukelect.com/HTML/forecasts/2001april.html
Labour@50% !! Something to note.. 2001 could have been *MUCH* worse for the Tories.
And 2001 was already worse than 1997 IMO.
New Siena College Poll for New York :
McCain 33% .. Obama 51%
Note - Earlier today NY Times had M-32/O-51.
http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=17985
Just seen Rod Crosby’s Fruit and Veg hero on Look East News who will be opposing Davis. He will be lucky to get 10 votes…. 5 more than his IQ
We had a plethora of commissioned polls on Crewe and Nantwich. But silence from the media on Henley; could the rumours that it’s looking tighter by the day be true then?
91. That’s a real shame. I was really rooting for Warner!
101 - But this has happened before over Nice - hard to get so worked up and outraged over something that went through on the nod the last time it happened.
“If I were Cameron I would be on the phone to the Taoiseach right now, imploring him to stand firm and reject a second vote, and reassuring him that a future Conservative British government will not let Ireland be isolated.”
That would be a waste of time - Cowen desparately wants to have the treaty ratified!
I really think you’re being over-enthusiastic here and projecting a little onto Cameron as well.
From the Irish Times website:
“EU leaders will want to hear from Taoiseach Brian Cowen at a summit in Brussels later this week whether he sees any hope of winning a new referendum, a step which has so far not been ruled out but which one which EU leaders believe is a high-risk strategy.”
I think this has to be at least 50:50 right now which is why I think Paddy Power’s odds are generous.
114, difference with Nice is that Lisbon is essentialy Constitutionv2. v1 was turned down by the froggies and Dutch, when it was totally ‘reworked’ (they used a new font and everything). Anything less will make the Irish feel as if they aren’t as important as the cheese-eating surrender monkeys.
115 - There is something to that - there will only be a referendum if they can offer the kind of concessions that address key concerns of no voters. Whatever those concerns were. Of course they cant change the treaty. But that’s ok, many no voters’ concerns had nothing to do with the treaty anyway.
109. Shikes.
This is even *WORSE*.
This is how a Conservative wipeout could have happened… Conservative Party DESTROYED:
http://www.ukelect.com/HTML/forecasts/2001dec.html
Jesus, how soon we forget how bad things were..
I still haven’t figured how Hague managed to do so badly in 2001, he should have at least picked up a couple of dozen seats.
Playing devil’s advocate here - I really don’t think this will happen - but I do wonder if David Davis and Gordon Brown are now locked in something of a staring match, daring the other to blink first.
Although the media narrative has trended towards DD from an initially hostile position, the general view (with which I agree) is that there is a risk he will look daft and the whole thing will become farcical if he is standing against assorted (very) minor parties, with both Labour and the Libe Dems staying away. I am not convinced DD foresaw this, which makes me wonder whether, if Labour were to announce that they are not going stand, DD may seek to make a graceful(ish) withdrawl from his position, not resign and try to spin it as “The Government won’t defend it because they know it is indefensible. I have proved my point and there is no need to go any further”. For these reasons I wonder if DD is delaying his announcement in the hope that the “dithering Gordon” line gains more traction and forces Labour out.
By the same token, I suspect Gordon wants to see DD having handed in his notice (and the media reaction) before making a decision - he needs to be told whether or not the media would forgive a no-show, and he won’t really know that until DD has put it on the block.
As I say, I don’t think this will happen, but it would be interesting. I am not sure I know which way the media would go in these circumstances.
107 TC. Dr Fox’s ringing endorsement :
“Many of us feel very similarly to David but his way of highlighting it, calling a by-election, was a personal decision, it wasn’t something that was taken in consultation with the shadow cabinet.”
AND
“David has very strong views. He’s decided that’s how he would like to highlight it. Obviously that’s his personal decision and, as David Cameron said, it’s a courageous thing to do because you never know what will happen in a by-election. But it was not a collective decision.”
AND
Asked whether he thought the decision selfish, Dr Fox replied: “I think it’s clearly a decision he made for himself. It is evidently not something I would have done. It wasn’t something that was decided collectively, so David takes responsibility for that action.”
119 exactly Jack W he did not have a go at Davis.
119 - Not very negative, all he does is to say that this isn’t official tory policy, therefore making sure that labour can’t say that ‘tories this/that’ when this is an issue that should be beyond party politicking.
118. David Davis can’t back out now. Not withouth doing serious damage to his cause. No, I think he’s waiting to challenge Gordon Brown on Wednesday and then will officially resign on Wednesday afternoon.
Assuming he can catch Mr. Speaker’s eye…
114. No, you really don’t understand British eurosceptics. Your analysis is asinine.
If Lisbon is forced through then Cammo will have to “do something” - Tories will demand it. Europe is now going to dominate British politics for the next nine months whatever happens - if it comes into force it will come into force around the time of the GE, or just before. If Lisbon had passed without problems it might not have been so salient - but now… now everything is different.
Think on it. A new EU president. New EU embassies. Legal personality for the EU. 50 new powers going to the EU parliament etc - and all this happening “illegally” - at least arguably - and against the express wishes of the British people and the Irish (and the French, and the Dutch, for that matter).
And all of it happening at just the “right” moment - as we head to a general election.
The atmos will be venomous.
You also misconstrue me over Cowan. Or course he’d like to see Lisbon ratified by the Irish. But I imagine his love for his career is even greater than his love for the passerelle clause.
He knows that re-running the referendum is an enormous risk. If he loses again, I think he’s out on his ear. He would be a laughable figure. In Ireland and in Europe.
He wants to avoid this. I think he sees his best bet now is getting the EU to abandon or at least shelve Lisbon - and for this he needs some support from other EU leaders, who can reassure him he won’t be alone to face Franco-German bullying.
Hence a nice friendly phone call from Cammo, the next British PM, might be in order.
Former Hillary campaign manager Patti Sollis Doyle joins Obama’s team as the Chief of Staff to Obama’s VP pick. Mmhhhhh ???
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/16/former-clinton-campaign-manager-joins-obama-team/
re 17 Indeed Stuart D. You might ask why G Brown, Esq keeps spouting on about them as well as they will have absolutely no impact on his constituents at all.
Have we had an election party funding statement yet?
Are Labour about to cap Tory donations but not union ones and thereby underline their reliance on them and their state of near bankrupcy?
re 48 well this assumes there’s going to be a by election in Haltemprice firstly. Secondly, bye election campaigns are only 27 days at most.
One of my favourite quotes on the Lisbon NO vote is this - also in the OED 2009 draft edition as a supplementary defintiion of “irony”
“It is not truly democratic that less than a million people should decide the fate of half a billion Europeans”, said the leader of the Euro-Greens, Daniel Cohn-Bendit.
I am not sure that some of the Tories on here have quite thought the Davis thing out. Most have Tories have taken the ‘folk hero’ line, but the more they do that, the more they store trouble up for Cameron. The Cameroons, for various reasons, took a decidedly cool and unsupportive line over Davis. If the Davis folk hero bandwagon takes off there is a collision course within the Conservative Party - and it is at least three ways - i.e. Authoritarian vs. ‘libertarian’ in one direction and Cameron vs. real ‘folk hero’ challenge to authority in the other direction.
The Cameroons picked the right line - the supporters didn’t. The only question now is how messy it’s going to get in the long run.
For anyone interested, here is an excellent take on why hillary lost and obama won.
LINK.
David Davis will benefit from the British cultural preference for the underdog, for the loner who takes on the system. It’s a David and Goliath show. The sling shot of democracy versus the assembled throngs of Gordon’s army.
It will be a gladiatorial display guaranteed top media billing, with spinners and twisters of words firing away at each other. I cannot any betting angles.
The Conservatives that I know seem confused by Davis, though generally think he has lost it. If they and more importantly the borderline voters get the impression that the Tories are a disorganised rabble - liable to do odd things, then things could get interesting.
How much do polls cost? I have asked ComRes to quote for Henley. Do you think that PB could afford one? - say £50 a head!
127
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7457201.stm
120 TC. I’m sure you’re not that niave TC.
How about Soames (may his girth be ever increasing) … he said:
“It is a disaster for David personally. Words cannot express how foolish he has been.”
Soames added that Davis had let down his party. “Politics is at all times a team game,” he said. “Reliability is all in politics.”
Or perhaps the Honourable Member for Sussex(Huge)Mid(Rift) had guzzled a few dozen oysters and one was off and sunk a gerry of champers and was then mis-quoted ???
132. Yeah, I think Davis lost it, but it’s gonna be fun, it livens things up, it’s nice to see someone taking a stand on something important, and it will impact more on the Labour party (by underlining their cowardice and illiberalism) than it will on the Tories.
And he will win, of course.
132 Icarus. The ARSE would only charge 45 guineas per head !!
130. Paul - Conservatism has been pushing towards a more robust Libertarianism for some time now.
Decentralisation of power, local decision making, euroscepticism, more liberal stances on social issues and an increased focus on civil liberties have been a particular focus of the last 3 years.
Authoritarians in the party are largely restricted to Cornerstone and, I suspect, number <25% of the party - a fair few of whom will retire in the next 2-6 years.
There is also the advantage that the Public might recognise - through Davis - that the Conservatives are people who hold Principles and are relaxed - and will support - people following them.
That could have some minor electoral benefit.
Resurfacing of sleaze allegations is the biggest threat to the Tories IMO.
188 Re Davis, I’m not sure if anyone’s posted this, but Davis has a piece in the Standard today http://tiny.cc/hgh4i Predictably, he taunts Brown about bottling elections.
I guess there is a bit of brinkmanship right now because Davis hasn’t resigned yet, and Brown hasn’t ruled out Labour’s standing a candidate.
But, personally I don’t see how Labour can stand now, having already called it a stunt. Nor can I see how Davis can pull out having already the called the election on.
So I reckon the election will take place. Assuming it does, someone, if not Labour is going to have to put the case for the surveillance society… the BBC I suppose?
45 guineas is £47.50 - not much of a discount!
138 That url doesn’t work. Here it is in full: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23495389-details/Comment%3A+public+response+to+my+stand+proves+this+debate+is+vital/article.do
122. Strange how the betting odds appear to be going the other way.
141 Sorry should have referred to 112.
139 icarus. Actually it’s £47.25 …. but damn it man !!! … you’ve just got a hefty discount from a Scot !!!
130 The position is more nuanced than that. Its the Kavanagh approach. Mixed feelings. Good cause. Big ego.
You can support a man’s cause and accept it took guts but also accept at the same time think he has proved he is not leadership material.
IMHO much of the voting membership will not thank him for taking a risk.
130 The position is more nuanced than that. Its the Kavanagh approach. Mixed feelings. Good cause. Big ego.
You can support a man’s cause and accept it took guts but also accept at the same time think he has proved he is not leadership material.
IMHO much of the voting membership will not thank him for taking a risk.
EURO 2008:
All about the 1938 tonight!!!!!
Anschluss Anschluss Anschluss
117
That’s a terrifying prediciton! I always was of the impression that the Tories were saved by foot and mouth - the government’s horrendous handling of it and the delayed election were enough to shore up the rural Tory vote which basically saved them from a worse than ‘97 outcome - could have been goodnight Vienna so easily.
137 Casino Royale. I think that as the Tories have become more confident, their rhetoric has drifted back towards classic Tory lines. But we shall see.
Icarus, if you honestly want a poll for Henley, e-mail paulglloyd@yahoo.co.uk.
131. I sometimes wonder if Obama was running to win when he first entered the race last year. I think perhaps he was trying to do a Reagan - set himself up as the alternate to the establishment choice, in order to have a real crack later. I imagine his change narrative and bipartisan message was future looking to the electorate being fed up of four/eight years of Hillary Clinton, while also having awful memories of the Bush years.
17. Me thinks something wrong with the electoral calculus for Scotland.
Fed in 50% Con, 10% Lab, 15% Lib Dem and 20% SNP. Result Con 13 seats, Lab 23 seats, Lib Dem 9 seats and SNP 14 seats.
Then fed in 80% Con, 5 % Lab, 5% Lib Dem, 5% Nat. Result Con 49 seats, Lab 7 seats Lib Dem 2 seats and SNP 1 seat.
Even on 40% of the vote with the other parties sharing the balance, Con only win 4 seats!!!
Has Mark Senior got a similar model?
130. The truth of the matter is, I don’t particularly care what it means for the Tories. My suspicion is that with the economy going t*ts up, the next election is pretty much there for the taking the Tories. I don’t see anything coming out of David Davis’s campaign that will damage the Cons to such a degree that they will lose in 2010. But, in the end the message David Davis is relaying and the fact he is standing up to be counted, is more important than the damage it may or may not inflict to the Tories.
This needed saying and its long over due. What Davis has done is like a breath of fresh air. Its like blowing the cob-webs away. This will hopefully end up nothing short of a revolution, a revolution across the suburbs of middle England. For far too long have we all been bullied and dictated by officialdom and now is the time to stand up and say; NO MORE!
goodo- a thread about the VEEP contest.
I posted this morning that Rove tipped Jo Biden who was in the 30’s on betfair. Worth a 10 spot.
I do not think Obama will pick a woman for the reasons you stated. I know it sounds wierd, but like two timing Hillary.
At H&H its full steam ahead. As I understand it the Chairman has now decided they want a limited number of extra hands and a bus is being laid on for party workers.
144 / 145. I agree. But my point was that a lot of the Tory Online Echo Chamber (Toecers) have a slight knee jerk reaction to one of their own being in trouble, and noisily rally around them. This has been one of the big sources of the ‘folk hero’ line. And now that Genie is out. But the Cameron line was actually the best one for the Tory Party - essentially, he’s on his own and we are a sensible safe pair of hands. But if the folk hero thing continues to grow, Cameron is going to have to shift his original line - something that holds untold dangers for him both internally and externally.
Without wishing to feed SeanT, I do think the Sun in particular will try to push Cameron into a more publicly Eurosceptic position before the next election, possibly on the pretext that they will not support the Tories otherwise. The Telegraph may try the same but will have limited leverage because failing to support the Tories would rather undermine its raison d’etre.
I believe this will be an acid test for Cameron - a test to see whether he can retain a broad spectrum of support and withstand pressure from Murdoch while not alienating the Sun vote (or the retired Colonel vote)entirely, and not making Europe, the Vanessa Feltz of political issues, centre stage in 2010
Just to remind you how dire the incumbent who Obama seeks to replace is, the Washington Post has done a fresh demolition job on the madness of ‘king’ George:
http://tinyurl.com/3tauxc
It is worth reminding ourselves that the American public’s view of this ‘rightwinger’ is as identically bad and about the same issues mostly as the British public’s view is of Gordon Brown. Perhaps a job-swap is in order if only to remind ourselves that Cameron would be no better at all than Bush-Brown, in fact arguably worse, in some ways, than either.
GIN has just proved my point. Thanks GIN.
23 Mike from Jersey
*Obama has made it clear in the past that he believes himself to have the security credentials and lack the economic credentials.*
Step forward Senator Kent Conrad from North Dakota; a fiscal and economic genius. Conrad was one of the first senators to endorse Senator Obama, and the two are pretty close in the Senate.
Folks in red state ND love Conrad; he would push up support in the mid-west and the cowboy west. He’s not as flash as Brian Schweitzer [my next best choice] but if Obama wanted someone close to him to put the case for the low-paid and middle class then Kent Conrad is his man. Farmers love him too.
Malcolm
154. David Cameron can not be compared with George Bush. They are entirely different animals.
Malcolm.
Your man Bob Mashall-Andrews is going up to Howden with Davis to represent the views of about ‘a third’ of the Labour Party.
Will that man never learn to behave ?
26 Peter2
If McCain is only up 10% in Kansas, 9% in Arkansas and 2% in Nevada then the guy is in big trouble. If Bob Barr gets some traction then McCain will be beaten up bad.
As for America’s racists, sure they are all over the place, but they were never going to vote Democrat anyway. All these new voters will more than compensate for the good old boys; also McCain is in big financial trouble.
There’s no more dirt to come on Obama. If it had been there H Rodham Clinton’s secret police would have had dug it up already; it would have been out before the Texas primary. This race is Obama’s to lose; McCain can’t win it on his own, and certainly carrying the weight of the Bush boy on his shoulders sure won’t help.
Malcolm
149 Don’t bring me into it , I have been critical of the whole Electoral Calculus model for a long time now .
141 Betfair odds on Henley have shown a slight movement away from the Conservatives today , last price matched 1.08 last LibDem price matched 12.5 .
157 Sally C [does the 'C' stand for Con[servative?]]
If I wasn’t about to go down to the Sud de France for six weeks I’d be over there myself. Bob is paying back NULabour for all the shite that they’ve dropped on him and us for donkey’s years.
This country used to be beautifully ungovernable; this bunch of crap in Whitehall are trying hard to make the British governable; they must fail, and fail big time.
Malcolm
155. I’ve stuck Senator Conrad in at 100/1 for you, Malcolm.
104 - Yes it should be on BB iPlayer for a few days. Episode 71 if I recall correctly.
Tip for Labour
“In short, resignation from the House of Commons has always been a
concept foreign to British law. Parliamentary service was seen first as a royal duty, then as a republican one. Since the early eighteenth century, Members have been able to leave the House by accepting a royal office of trust or profit. Since the middle of the eighteenth century, the primary office used for this purpose has been the Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds. However, for a long time, the Chiltern Hundreds were not granted as a matter of course. And even when taking the Chiltern Hundreds later became common, it was seen as necessary to preserve the principle that leaving the House of Commons was a matter of grace. Indeed, during the crucial period of American constitutional development, the British practice was clear: no Member had a right to resign from the legislature.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1125917
Davis’s request should be refused, since it is an insult to Parliament. It is a wholly frivolous request.
Better still, put it to the vote on the floor of the House, and make the Tories stand-on-their-heads and vote for Davis’s resignation…
Brown has promised to modernise Parliament and its procedures. Start as you mean to go on, by blocking Davis and his muppetry…
Very strange. Last night I was given the impression that Tories except me thoought Davis was Mr Wonderful. Tonight it sounds like people are coming round to the idea that he’s lost the plot.
One other point. He was going to be the next Home Sec. He could have put through all sorts of civil liberties safeguarding legislation when the Tories win the election!
163. Failing that, invoke the Lunacy Act against Davis!!
163 - Do as you say Rod and labour would be a laughing stock. Good to see that your antennae are as widely off as usual.
164 - Only in ‘medialand’ that strange otherworldly place where reality does not intrude.
165 - Well that shows why you don’t understand the point I’m afraid.
65 Quite a lot of people are in favour of civil liberties without necessarily endorsing the shopping list of Stonewall/Operation Black Vote/Fawcett Society and other organisations whose raison d’etre is special pleading on behalf of the “oppressed” group they represent.
167. It is the law of parliament, which is supreme.
165. Maybe he thought taking a stand now was more important?
149. Richard (first post today)
It is because, bar a few seats where they are in a clear 2nd spot, the Tories are nowhere at all in vast swathes of Scotland. Just have a look at the result from 2005.
A huge Labour collapse in Scotland would not benefit the Tories all that much.
By the way: the Tories will never get anywhere near 40% in Scotland. Not until long after independence. Even then it would take a couple of decades to work up to that kind of level. Within the Union I cannot ever see the Scottish Tories getting to much over 27% in a very, very, very, very, very, very, extraorinarily, splendiferously outstanding election. ie. it ain’t gonna happen
170 - Like I say, a laughing stock. What better way of showing up parliament for what it is? Anyway, your attempts to make labour look bad are hardly necessary in the current climate.
164 I think most tories see Davis’ act as the the egotistically eccentric behaviour of a man whose heart is in the right place. I will happily support him and send him money whilst at the same time accepting that he has ruined any chance of a front bench career.
166 I take it you don’t feel you’ve read the Davis situation wrongly then? For this and many other reasons I think the Lunacy Act might better be employed closer to home.
Tory MPs would have no problem supporting one man’s brave defiance of socialistic snooping. Even Fatty Soames will troop up North (provided he is promised decent comestibles).
173 . Red Crosby is Dustin Hoffman in Rainman and I claim my 5 quid. The bloke taht can do the numbers but cant apply any logic to a problem……..
No. There IS a problem with Martin Baxter’s Scottish seats predictor. It has gone haywire.
NAT 2005 votes = 2.22% !
Has Mark Senior been f’ing about with it?
147. Good point.
176 - 2005 was a poor year for the Nats in Scotland, but Stuart, could you confirm it was not that bad?
16 But didn’t John Quincy Adams go back to the House of Representatives after being President and burnish his reputation. You maybe right but if he’s unlikely to be President now you could see how Americans might view Al as being never too proud to serve in any capacity.
175. Upholding the privileges of Parliament is of far greater importance that permitting Davis to do his mendacious little jig…
A great Constitutional issue is at stake here…
156.”David Cameron can not be compared with George Bush”
Socrates, Cameron is clearly closer to Brown than to Bush. In fact did we not, until recently, have another party leader who was part-Brown, part-Bush and who Cameron insists on mimicing in almost every move he makes?
176 The result of the next Scottish Parliament elections seems to have got in there by mistake.
163
The insults to Parliament are many, starting with Brown, the lapdog he has in place as a Speaker and most of the Labour party who are more interested in their own careers than in representing their constituents.
Perhaps if Brown wants to modernise Parliament he coulod start by resigning and letting someone witha modicom of competance and principle take over.
178. Indeed. We got 17.7%.
180 I was only teasing Rod. I dont doubt your knowledge of politics.
182 LOL
172. Not suggesting the Conservatives would ever get 40% (or any other figure). But any model should be able to take into account wide variations in outcomes.
If by any chance the Conservatives should get 40% of the national vote across Scotland, whilst the other 3 parties got 20% each as per the input to Electoral Calculus, then for the Conservatives to win just 4 seats can only happen if there is the most extreme tactical voting in almost all the seats across Scotland. It would require just one of the other 3 parties polling well (although in only one third of the seats) whilst the other two would not be much above single %age figures in almost each and every seat.
Furthermore, if the Conservatives got such a figure it would be more of a huge positive movement to them rather than just a collapse in the Labour vote.
Re: Ken Conrad
Agree with Malcolm about Sen. Conrad’s virtues. However, he was in all the papers last week for receiving a sweetheart vacation home financing deal from one of the leading funny money bottom feeders.
Conrad has been doing a reasonable job defending himself. But still means he’s not credible to be on the long list, let alone the short one.
181 I hope he’s close to neither.
180
What? After riding roughshod over most of the constitution Brown has no right to even mention the word. And if you support him then neither do you.
The way in which Labour have demolished most of the safeguards which existed in the constitution and attempted to turn our country into a police state is shameful. But you of course have shown ofetn that you have no shame so that probably means nothing to you.
180. So Rod, how do you feel about innocent people being locked up by Parliament for 42 days? And as your so “up” on Parliamentery rules, would you not agree that allowing MP’s a vote on whether or not an individual should be locked up without charge while they are being investigated, goes against the good standing of Parliament?
180 - In the words of Ed Balls ‘So What?’, issues of liberty are more important and, in any case, you appear to have no clue as to such how things appear outwith parliament. Too much time poring over arcane facts and figures which you can twist have left you unable to put such matters into perspective.
172. What are you talking about?
Conservatives to sweep the board in 2010.
Con GAIN Kirkcaldy.
191. Parliament is sovereign, so can do pretty much what it likes. It can even cut the head off a king.
That is a principle of equal importance to “Magna Carta”…
190 - Rod twists rules as much as he twists figures.
The problem with the Scottish seat calculator seems to be that the scores you enter for Scotland it then takes as predictions for the whole of the UK, from which it infers seats for Scotland. Some variable somewhere’s been mistakenly aligned.
184 I wonder if the SNP rise will trigger a rallying round one of the Unionist Parties. Take Quebec the Federalist vote first rallied to the Liberals and then when the Liberals ran into storms it surprised everyone by surging to the Canadian Tories. To the extent even Harper was gobsmacked as they suddenly rocketed to ten seats in a State where they’d been wiped out for a decade. The parallel I’m drawing here is is the Tory rise in support if such it be is in fact directly fuelled by SNP success.
194 I thought that principle was overruled in the Regicide Trials of 1660-1662.
198. We won’t know for sure until we try to cut off another King’s head!
194
A bit of a stupid thing to say Rod (why am I not surprised) since Parliamentary sovereignty ultimately derives from the Magna Carta (via the Bill of Rights).
Re: Religous Excess & US Presidential Politics
Truly believe that Brits are much more shockable in this regard that Americans. Because America is a much more religous society, or at least overt displays, discussions & personal revelations concerning religious belief & practice are much more common.
This is especially true for the South and Midwest, the twin wings of the US Bible Belt. But even voters in other parts of the nation pretty tolerant of religiosity because they recognize it as part of the American fabric.
So many voters - though certainly not all - are perfectly willing & able to factor out Huckabee’s disbelief in evolution or Jindal’s teenage exoricisms or Romney’s sacred undergarments. Just like they don’t worry about how many incense burners were lit the last time that Rudy Giuliani attended High Mass.
With respect to Romeny, there is not doubt that his Mormon faith hurt him in the primaries with many Christian conservatives. But what really did him in was his corporate blandness and trying to sell himself like a tube of discount toothpaste.
For the general election, the voter pool will widen. Making Romney less vulnerable on the LDS front, because most voters really don’t care whether the guy’s a Mormon or a Mennonnite. They just like the notion that he believes in a higher power (at least in theory) than the Republican National Committee!
185 - Why not?
197 I’m told the thing about Quebec is that both nationalists, and “unionists” (in the Canadian sense) switched to the Conservatives. The problem for the Parti Quebecois was their relentlessly left wing stance eventually repelled voters in a part of the world that is quite conservative. For many years, Quebec was governed by a right wing nationalist party, Union Nationale, and there is now a very strong nationalist party, Action Democratique Quebec, that can be compared to it, and which has made a lot of headway at state level, at the expense of PQ. This party’s supporters tend to vote Conservative at national level.
I’m not sure what lessons this holds for Scotland, which does seem to be a pretty left wing country.
199 - years ago took a tour of the Lords side of the Palace of Westminster. Interesting that the main reception room for the Queen contains an orginal copy of the Death Warrant of Charles II.
Talk about sending HM a message!
Seems that in spite of recent rebuffs, the EU is out to try and find even more ways to upset people:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1026783/Now-mobile-phone-users-charged-RECEIVE-calls.html
194 Presumably, the monarch can veto any such vote. I would, in her position.
199. So we can look forward to seeing you dragged on a hurdle to Tyburn then…
201 see 179.
203. Yes their choice of Leader prior to the 2006 election may not have been their best.
203. “I’m not sure what lessons this holds for Scotland, which does seem to be a pretty left wing country.”
Yup. They’ve got a major problem there.
And they don’t seem to see much connection between that and the fact so much of it is a shithole though, do they?
204 Charles I sic. His son was wiser by far and unlike father and brother passed away as King peacefully with his Mistresses at his side…….
174 re 164 That’s how I see it exactly.
203 - Quebec surge for Conservatives was reaction against Liberal, both federal in Ottawa and provincial Lib government in Quebec City. At a time when the PQ was in the doldrums. That was as big a factor in BQ problems as its leftwing stance. Note that ADQ appears to be on the wane, at least they took it in the chops in the last round of Quebec provincial by-elections.
211 True but it shows how the Federalist vote sought a new home even when that had been ignored for a decade rather than not vote at all.
208. Now, now, you can’t really blame Labour for that, been like it for centuries.
When someone praised the architecture of Edinburgh in the hearing of Samuel Johnson his response was, “Pray sir, have you never seen Brentford?”
Says it all, really.
204, 209 - sorry, should have said Chuckie I!
Wouldn’t this make an interesting movie: history of the English Revolution, Commonweath & Restoration, but with the “Chuckie” horror film character in the role of Charles I and/or II?
209.
In th’ isle of Britain, long since famous grown
For breeding the best c.u.n.t.s in Christendom,
There reigns, and oh! long may he reign and thrive,
The easiest King and best-bred man alive.
Him no ambition moves to get renown [5]
Like the French fool, that wanders up and down
Starving his people, hazarding his crown.
Peace is his aim, his gentleness is such,
And love he loves, for he loves f.u.c.k.ing much.
Nor are his high desires above his strength:
His scepter and his p.r.i.c.k are of a length;
And she may sway the one who plays with th’ other,
And make him little wiser than his brother.
Poor Prince! thy p.r.i.c.k, like thy buffoons at Court,
Will govern thee because it makes thee sport.
‘Tis sure the sauciest p.r.i.c.k that e’er did swive,
The proudest, peremptoriest p.r.i.c.k. alive.
Though safety, law, religion, life lay on ‘t,
‘Twould break through all to make its way to c.u.n.t.
Restless he rolls about from whore to whore,
A merry monarch, scandalous and poor.
To Carwell, the most dear of all his dears,
The best relief of his declining years,
Oft he bewails his fortune, and her fate:
To love so well, and be beloved so late.
For though in her he settles well his tarse,
Yet his dull, graceless bollocks hang an arse.
This you’d believe, had I but time to tell ye
The pains it costs to poor, laborious Nelly,
Whilst she employs hands, fingers, mouth, and thighs,
Ere she can raise the member she enjoys.
All monarchs I hate, and the thrones they sit on,
From the hector of France to the cully of Britain.
‘Plan for ‘minimum priced’ alcohol’
“The Scottish Government is considering imposing a minimum price for alcohol based on its strength, BBC Scotland understands.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7457089.stm
188 Irish
Hey I missed that about Conrad. Being here in the UK I miss all the interesting bits from stateside. If that’s the case about Conrad then 5000-1 seems about right.
However, he is still on the ball and needs to be whispering in Senator Obama’s more than generous ears. I now move to my number two, Brian Schweitzer. Irish, please don’t cough up bad news about him.
Malcolm
Malcolm
On that we can agree.
The cheapest slaves in the Roman empire: scruffy and unbiddable. A reputation to be proud of.
I shall be there.
Sally PBDF - [Pretty Boy Dave faction.]
217 The bad news is the low number of EVs on offer in Montana.
208
Do you really know Scotland? From your ridiculous post I guess not; Have you ever toured the highlands and islands and the beautiful south west? If your knowledge of politics is as strong as your knowledge of Scotland then I guess you must be a supporter of one of the UK’s [so-called] main parties; for they are truly shite.
Malcolm
I’m starting to realise why people leave the site in a huff. If you disagree with some people on here they label you a lunatic.
Quebec Politics
Two key to disenchantment of many federalist voters with the Liberals in Quebec:
1. Last federal Liberal government’s sponsorship scandal (misappropriation of funds to promote federalism in Quebec into coffers of Liberal party bagmen) which angered many Quebecker, both intrinsically and because it fed the common Anglo sterotype that francophones are morally challenged.
2. Unpopularity of provincial Liberal government under Jean Charest (a former federal conservative MP; note that in Canada the federal and provincial wings of parties are quite distinct, often feud with one another and draw support from different sectors of the electorate)
Believe that Charest’s poll numbers are on the upswing. And federal Tory goverment under Harper is essentially tredding water. So stay tuned
206 Sean F. I’ve never thought of you as an old Queen !!
203.”I’m not sure what lessons this holds for Scotland, which does seem to be a pretty left wing country.”
Sean, Labour have hardly been seen as a Left wing government over the last 11 years. Can we stop peddling this line that Scotland is left wing, its not.
208.”And they don’t seem to see much connection between that and the fact so much of it is a shithole though, do they?”
Thanks! I have grew up in the Highlands, and have lived in the North East for most of my adult life with a couple of years Edinburgh thrown in. And the that is certainly not the view I have, in fact Casino, waking up to the views both sides of the Cairngorms is about as good as it gets. I grew just a couple of miles away from the Rothiemurchus Estate where spring watch filmed over the last couple of weeks. You have taken your view of a couple area’s and applied to pretty much the whole damn country!
Apparently Bush met Cameron again whilst was here. The American’s can sense whats what.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/
Unbelievable stuff in the US Open. An 18-hole play-off has not separated them and they go to a 91st hole! Fabulous.
219 Punter
Having a VP candidate to carry a particular state is the old politics. Senator Obama needs to pick someone who will bring back into the fold those parts of the country that have been ignored for the last 20 years. Part of Obama’s appeal is that he doesn’t play the old dirty politics.
His choice will be of someone that he admires and will have a major role in his administration. Al Gore fits the bill, but won’t take it - done it before. Another senator is OK if he will carry something heavy in terms of policy, so an economic speacialist, and educator, or a decent doctor. You know what I mean.
Obama’s only interest in geography is about bringing the whole country back together; he needs to stay away from Washington insiders and govern America from America.
Malcolm
221 - You’ve been out of the loop, the discussion over the past few days has been very different to what may be seen via the Westminster Village. You suggested that to wait until a tory victory is enough. That’s what was wrong, it would be too late and it paints civil liberties as party political when the attempt is to make them applicable to parties across the spectrum. There are some tories who are too concerned with their own parties chances in my opinion and many labourites who are trying to spin untruths to save their own skins. This is a contest between those who put such principles first and those who are only interested in ‘their’ party.
Re 134, Jack W “Or perhaps the Honourable Member for Sussex(Huge)Mid(Rift) had guzzled a few dozen oysters and one was off and sunk a gerry of champers and was then mis-quoted ???”
I can guarantee you that he is getting both barrels from many people. (And will be getting it from me).
“Newsweek” says that McCain will strive to avoid the “Dole-Drums” :
http://www.newsweek.com/id/141506
218 heh Sally C.
194 …sigh.
217 - Man, you do get around - from Fargo to Frejus and back!
As best I can recollect, what happened with Conrad, was he connacted some big muckitymuck with Contrywide (I think that’s who it was) to arrange refinancing for his beach house on the Delaware shore (popular along with the MD shore with Washingtonians). The big shot then told his flunkies to knock some points off for the Senator, saving him a bundle.
Conrad contends he never asked for special treatment. But still got it. And was rather naive of him (the best interpretation) to think that he would NOT receive favorable treatment the way he went about getting his loan.
So far no discouraging words about Gov. Schweitzer. As for Montana being too small a state to play, well I think that nomination of Governor of the electorally puny state of Arkansas in 1992 shows that being from a small state is no longer the bar sinister when it comes to making the ticket.
Do think Schweitzer is a bit of a long shot. BUT he’d be a great contrast AND backup to Obmama. The West has been a powerful myth in US presidential politics ever since Andy Jackson.
229 Benedict. Two barrels of fino sherry ?? …. Excellent news !!
Woods wins the US Open.
Ooh some strong stuff from Evans Pritchard here. Was it ghosted by seanT?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/ambrosevanspritchard/june2008/irelandeuvote.htm
The Clintons should not be anywhere near mainstream politics. Bill is a serial adulterer and prolific liar. Hillary only puts up with Bill to forward her own career.
The American people must be totally gaga to put up with this pair.
Going back a few years I was absolutely gobsmacked when B Clinton did sweet FA about the attack on the USS Cole. I think this gave a green light to Alchy Ada that the USA was not committed to defending its own.
Commentariat 0 Blosphere 1
There is today not a deader parrot in this country than one that seeks to say, “I’m parroting what the general public is saying.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/16/internet.politics
Might be what you were waiting to hear Malcolm…
… Did the commentariat really not see how the English might take to this? Do they really not understand this country at all?
Re 163, Rod Crosby “Brown has promised to modernise Parliament and its procedures. Start as you mean to go on, by blocking Davis and his muppetry…”
Now that would be a fantastic thing for Brown to do. David Davis has made the Murdoch press back him (even if only a bit) and the public who have supported him in their droves would be incandescent.
It would make Gordon Brown look like the biggest bottler in history!*
*to be fair he pretty much looks like that already.
Re W’s Farwell Tour
In US today, George W. Bush is a joke. People of all political persuasions cannot wait to see the last of him.
Current junket is attracting mimimal press coverage in the US. Because no one cares what he does, provided it’s not starting another war.
Bout the only time he get relevant mention, is by late night comics. Letterman is especially hard on him; every night one of the main schticks is “Great Presidential Speeches” which juxtaposes orations by FDR, JFK, HST & DDE with some stupid Bush trick. Great stuff, and clearly a crowd pleaser or Letterman wouldn’t keep on doing it.
Pope Benny showed again showed his political tin ear by making a fuss over W at the Vatican. But what’s a little thing like an Unjust War between two dumbass hypocrites?
Of course Gordo has little choice but to appear with W. And looks like Cameron did the bare minimum possible. Maybe W gave him a bomber jacket too?
227. “Part of Obama’s appeal is that he doesn’t play the old dirty politics.” - Your faith is touching. Fortunately for Obama he won’t adopt such a Saintly attitude when Karl Rove comes knocking.
232. Err yuh but the said Governor was at the top of the then ticket and IIRC Arkansas is a veritable EV giant in comparison to Montana.
237 It puts the boot into Nick Robinson. Thats fine by me!
Re 233, JackW “229 Benedict. Two barrels of fino sherry ?? …. Excellent news !! ;-)”
Possibly not
239 A newspaper over here was commenting how the fact he kept referring that Iraq should have no timetables was a sure sign Brown hadn’t given him what he was looking for.
234 - TIGER WOODS
Must confess that I’ve always been allergic to the appeal of Tiger Woods.
Until this past weekend. When he demonstrated in the most conclusive way possible that he IS the man.
Must say I like the Tiger struggling to overcome adversity much better than the Tiger who dissed Jack Nickolaus and the Tiger who is the 24/7 shill for Nike et al.
Yeah Tiger!
Pre the Tony Awards (Broadway Theatre) last night I posted my predictions as a contest against myself. I don’t suppose anybody else follows the area but here’s my score.
Correct predictions
1 - AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY - Best Play,
2 - AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY - Lead Actress/Play (Deanna Dunagan)
3 - AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY - Direction/Play
4 - IN THE HEIGHTS - Best Musical
5 - IN THE HEIGHTS - Best Original Score
6 - BOEING BOEING - Best Revival/Play
7 - SOUTH PACIFIC - Best Revival/Musical
8 - SOUTH PACIFIC - Best Actor/Musical (Paulo Szot)
9 - SOUTH PACIFIC - Direction/Musical
10 - GYPSY - Lead Actor/Musical (Patti Lupone)
11 - GYPSY - Featured Actor/Musical (Boyd Gaines)
12 - GYPSY - Featured Actress/Musical (Laura Benanti)
13 - THE SEAFARER - Featured Actor/Play (Jim Norton)
Incorrect predictions
1 - IN THE HEIGHTS Predicted, PASSING STRANGE Won - Best Book/Musical
2 - PATRICK STEWART (Macbeth) Predicted, MARK RYLANCE (Boeing Boeing) Won - Lead Actor/Play
3 - MARTHA PLIMPTON (Top Girls) Predicted, RONDI REED (August:Osage County) Won - Featured Actor/Play
4 - CRY BABY Predicted, IN THE HEIGHTS Won - Best Choreography
So, 13-4, if only there were betting markets on it.
234- and wins me 620 quid. Go Tiger
‘But history will recall that when our liberties were at stake, when the guarantees of the Magna Carta were raided, then destroyed, in the name of those same guarantees, the Conservative leadership refused to play – even though that meant rebelling against their own hawkish members.’
By
Yasmin Alibhai-Brown
Has the world turned on its head?
Re 237, SallyC, Fantastic news. David Davis has won the debate and the byelection before he has even resigned.
There is no way out of this for Gordon Brown.
Fine man, David.
220. *CASINO REELS ONE IN*
Yes, Malcolm, I lived there for 5 years.
I am fully qualified to describe it as such!
246 - still prefer Lee Trevino, if only because he was my dad’s favorite golfer. A true mensch.
236. Bill Clinton approved every measure put to him to combat Al-Qaeda. The idea that he did nothing is a manufactured GOP myth a la the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
237 - Choicest Quote - “The media sought the easy story - but they also sought what seemed to them the accurate story. They sourced, corroborated, conferred - the angle they decided on was absolutely spot on, but sadly, it was spot on on another planet. When your living depends on your contacts, and your contacts are all party political figures, your stance is always, invariably, coloured by that. When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. In fact, as we now see, what looked like a nail was in fact a screw-up.”
Too true.
Re 247, SallyC Got a link for that?
I have not checked the Respect website, but so far in support of Davis, we have the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, BNP, English democrats. On the papers front, we have the Independent the Daily Mail, shortly to be followed by the Guardian. The Sun is clearly wavering.
Staggering.
re 247 the link if you are interested.
o.uk/opinion/commentators/yasmin-alibhai-brown/yasmin-alibhaibrown-political-labels-no-longer-mean-very-much-847903.html
Time to down tools against some usual enemies - that comment really had to cost her something.
253 - The Observer were almost falling over each other to praise Davis, The Guardian tends to follow.
134 Jack W not niaive.
As for Soames comments on DD, oh yes the great bloated one did erupt and revealed how out of touch Soames is with the country.
A bit like the media last week.
seem to have messed up the link for Yasmin. Its no.3 on the most read opinion at the bottom of this link.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/janet-street-porter/%20editoratlarge-david-davis-is-the-new-voice-of-the-people-847466.html
Now work!
253. When you’re more authoritarian than the BNP you know you’re in trouble.
224. I did say “so much of it is.. a shithole” rather than *ALL* of it, didn’t I?
The central industrial belt is terrible. There are *still* slums galore in Glasgow and Edinburgh - and Dundee isn’t much better.
The housing, health, diet, lifestyle, crime rates and infrastructure is appalling. A fair bit of sectarianism in these places too. Dark, drab, grey, depressing houses with depressing people in them. Ooohh.. Horrible!
Unfortunately, this is where 75%+ of Scots live.
Alas, no matter where you are, the Scots can never do much about the weather, or the midges, both of which are other big negatives.
221 David as UK Paul says you’ve been out of the loop - Thursday was an amazing day on Pb.com and many of the points you raised were discussed & supported. Think may Tories did/do agree that Davis has been an idiot to resign, had given Gordon an escape from the dire headlines he was due and thrown the Cameron strategy off course. Recognising all that though also recognise he did it for principle.
On party discipline & management side its a good thing this happened now - two years before the election - rather than near to it or afterwards when as Home Secretary he was overruled by the Cabinet & PM. It has paradoxically strengthened Cameron because many of Davis’s allies were aghast at his actions.
Then it also has a public benefit - British liberties do need a champion, this far no further and Davis seems to have re-ignited the Charter 88 crowd, given a bit of backbone to those in Labour uncomfortable with Blair/Brown authoritarianism. He could only achieve cross party support as an outsider, distanced from the Shadow Cabinet. It is a bit Don Quixote but against real dragons rather than windmills and he isn’t limiting his campaign to just his constituency but broadening it with activities across the country so whether Labour does or does not put up a candidate it remains a campaign against Brown and the Government.
The actual by election doesn’t matter, its us political geeks who miss the wood concentrating on the by election tree, on H&H and who may or may not stand, what the turnout will be, the internal politics of the parties. The electorate the message is aimed at is nationwide and Davis has been given national radio, TV and newspapers to reach out. He gains an extra week delaying his resignation not constrained by election rules.
254 Is that the right link.
What Planet are the Euro-Fascists from? Certainly not planet Earth, Western Democracy.
It is said that Russia buys Ukranian MPs at 2million$ each.
What is in it for the Euro-Fascists? What have they been promised?
237. Great piece. As I’ve said before, blogging and sites like this are almost making the politics commentator redundant. Whatever the Nick Robinsons of this world say and think, we now ALL have a voice and our voices are no more or less immportant than theirs and time and time again the “Westminster Village” and media reponse has been wayyyy off, whilst the Bloggers have been vindicated. Times are changing and its very exciting.
New Rasmussen Poll for Virginia :
McCain 44% .. Obama 45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election
re 258, Socrates “253. When you’re more authoritarian than the BNP you know you’re in trouble.”
Quite.
Looking at Yasmin’s comments I can’t help coupling them with Portillo’s on This Week [Cameron looked like the Prime Minister and Gordon Brown was acting like the Leader of the Oppostion'].
Have the left got to the point where they are awaking from their stupor and even starting to see Cameron as the bigger/right man and Brown as just too dangerous?
http://www.pickledpolitics.com/archives/2064
259
I love NE Scotland, around the Moray Firth, Dornoch, Tain, The Black Isle, Comarty etc etc etc etc, beautiful countryside, fabulous beaches, sparsely populated, fantastic place for a holiday
New thread - Does this rule Hillary out completely?
263. Absolutly right there Gin! Only problem is the Bloggersphere arives at its conclusion mainly through the analysis of political history. People like Robinson arrive at theres through press releases, lines to take, agender notes or to put it bluntly spin.
The problem for many journalists is they use the age old media methodology they have used since political sketchwriting, reporting, commentating began. There is a potential for a paradigm shift in the “bloggersphere” criving and causing the commentators to think again. But as ever vested interests (Journalists careers) seek to block, minimise and even discredit the insurgent political commentators.
**** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD ****
Is Mike Smithson the Nostradameus of Political Betting ??
UKPaul @ 245. Greatr predictions. Have you ever been to the Tony ceremony? It is great fun !
237 Sally
Thanks so much for that article. You may know that I, as a Senior Citizen, have plenty of time to travel and to blogulate. My fascination with the US presidential election has been about insiders not understanding that politics has changed so much that they have been passed by. The Obama phenomenon has caught all the American talking heads on their arses, or talking up them.
It was bound to happen here. The main parties are exclusive and concerned about winning. Davis is way ahead of the current situation in the UK. He, and I guess plenty of ‘we,’ have realised that the disconnect between the parties and the people will only grow unless individuals speak and do what is right and not what looks good.
The unpopularity of Brownstuff et al is not a swing to the right but an expression of disgust with ‘politics’ as its ‘played.’
Bravo, Davis, just don’t let us all down.
Malcolm
220
In all of it? You must have travelled more than me.
Malcolm
271 - No, but I’ve been to Radio City Music Hall where they are now held.