Will Gord’s anniversary put his survival on the agenda?
June 18th, 2008
Could the birthday week of judgement set the ball rolling?
Next Friday, on June 27th, Gordon will be celebrating his first anniversary as Prime Minister and we are going to see a lot of commentators, like Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian, giving their verdict on the first twelve months. And given how events have unfolded this could provide the peg for a lot of critical analysis of his leadership style and further questions about his future.
Freedland was a pretty solid Brown supporter yet his anniversary article contains much that will make Number 10 feel uncomfortable - because he highlights all the weaknesses.
He argues: “..I find myself in sympathy with those who admired Brown through his 10 long years as chancellor and who keenly awaited his premiership, and yet now conclude that they got Brown wrong - that, on the current evidence, he is simply not up to the job. .At its most basic, he seems to lack the skills of a man who would lead a 21st-century nation…The most obvious skill gap is in communication…He does not seem able to deliver three or four plain, human sentences that anyone could understand. The result is an empathy gap: he does not seem able to show any to the electorate and so they don’t feel any for him.”
On the November election U-turn Freedland says “..it wasn’t the eventual failure to call an election that did the damage. It was Brown’s presentation of it, the rictus smile as he insisted that the tightening opinion polls had nothing to do with his decision. Reporters told him to come off it, snorting their derision. It was like watching a teacher lose the discipline of his class - once gone, it can never be recovered.”
This is savage stuff made even more potent because it is from a friend.
Freedland concludes with a call to action “..Labour’s task is not simply to watch this saga play out to its bitter end, but to act - and to help this desperately flawed hero change his destiny.”
A week before the Crewe by-election I suggested that the 5/1 and 6/1 then available on Brown going before the end of 2008 looked great value. Those prices did not last the afternoon.
My guess is that he should just about survive but a few more articles by “friends” during this anniversary week will make his position even more precarious.
Mike Smithson
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Can’t really see GB stadning down at this stage.
(Hooray!! First post?)
this is why 42 days will help the Tories. Brown and the PLP thinks he got a breathing space. But the longer they. Dither on replacing him, the more likely therejust won’t be time. Brown at the ge = Labour meltdown.
OT already. Another example of selective reporting by the BBC. Headline reads: “Dementia burden ‘could break NHS’” and in the following 14 paragraphs there is not a single mention of either Gabble or Roger. Tut.
OT - YouGov are conducting a survey on civil liberties including a question on “Do you think Labour should have a candidate in the H&H by-election”
All that is needed is a mechanism or an event. If Brown pushes Lisbon through the Lords today and angers his LIsbon rebels, or if David Davis attracts more open support from Labour MPs, he could suddenly become hugely vulnerable.
In truth, Brown is already dead. It’s only a case who will deliver the coffin, and when.
I will not be mourning him for one second. I left the UK due to loss of the liberty that we once enjoyed there, and not surprisingly have very strong views. LINK.
I find myself in sympathy with those who admired Brown through his 10 long years as chancellor and who keenly awaited his premiership
Surely that should read
I have unlimited sympathy with those who admired Brown through his 10 long years as chancellor and who keenly awaited his premiership, as care in the community obviously failed them.
OK as a Tory I am more than a little biased, but what exactly did these people see that led them to conclude that Brown had what it takes? His only form of communication is tractor production statistics. As for courage, his disappearances were legend long before his coronation.
The Labour Party has a huge problem. If his numbers continue to go down, they have to wield the knife. However, the lower they go, the less anyone with any electibility will want the job.
I spent the day in Henley yesterday. There seems to be a general lack of interest which would indicate a low turnout by south of England standards, though I would still expect it to be well above 40%, probably 50%.
The Tories appear to be running a excellent campaign by their standards. Their literature is very good and they seem to be carefully targeting their message using Mosaic or something similar.
The LD literature is better than C&N and is probably making some telling points, but nevertheless it’s poorly designed compared to that of the Tories and the message is often lost in what can st be described as ‘graphics at war’.
Mike, I would assess this as being a lot safer for the Tories than some of your correspondents seem to think. If the LD’s want to do better, changes have to be made. Fighting campigns in 2008 and with the tactics and literature of the 1990’s has to stop. The problem is that this strategy comes from the very top, and of course cannot be wrong.
To engage in a bit of contrarionism I think that there were small grounds for hope with regard to Gordon before he became leader. Firstly no-one knew for certain how he would respond, we all had some idea doubtless, but we couldn’t be sure. Secondly there was reason to be optimistic that a leader who was clearly more in tune with his tribe than Blair was by the end would sharpen the machinery and puncture what before his arrival was a steadily inflating Tory balloon. There was initally evidence that his personality could chime, albeit in propitious circumstances. It is all very well saying in hindsight that it was entirely obvious how it would turn out but it wasn’t, not entirely at least.
Also I think that whilst we focus on the cancelled election as the point it all started to go wrong for Gordon, I think here again we are wrong. It was clearly something that had a massive impact but I think it wasn’t where is started to go wrong. I would go back a few weeks to Gordon’s holiday. Firstly the type of holiday he chose was clearly out of character, Gordon is really not a bucket and spade sort of person, and everyone can see it. Secondly to cancel it and rush back was the act of someone who didn’t want to be active but more hyperactive. What I think that did was to sow the seed of doubt, it was the first evidence that something was not quite right here. Without that I think the non-election wouldn’t have been such a huge problem.
Imagine 4 weeks of constant media attention on Brown and Cameron during a GE contest. How many seats will he cost Labour?
“1. the comunications from cowley street re henley are very odd in tone and volcabulary and suggest all is not well.” From yellow submarine very late last night (after the spell checkers have shut down for the night) - would you care to expand?
Reflecting [7], your comments on the appearance of literature, and the Tory campaign generally, were also true at Ealing and Southall. The quality of the paper and graphics didn’t seem to matter with the electorate there. I think the overall feel of Lib Dem literature is of greater committment and urgency, though haven’t seen much of the Conservative stuff.
We will see in a week.
“..it wasn’t the eventual failure to call an election that did the damage. It was Brown’s presentation of it, the rictus smile as he insisted that the tightening opinion polls had nothing to do with his decision. Reporters told him to come off it, snorting their derision. It was like watching a teacher lose the discipline of his class - once gone, it can never be recovered.”
Such circumstances were repeated at last week’s press briefing. Everybody in the room suspected that a deal had been struck with the DUP, but out came the same rictus smile and repeated denials. Nobody believed him.
11 - Committment. I see the spell check at 10 hasn’t been switched on.
9 Kas- just imagine. Awful thought the prospect of Brown desperately trying to cling on in the full glare of an election campaign.
BTW- Labour’s populism knows no bounds. Today’s criminal justice report is a reason why we should not consult with the public.
14 Its not going to be pretty
There never was a November election: the pre-election hype was simply a ruse to provoke the Conservatives into wasting money.
It backfired just like all the other too-clever-by-half stunts aimed solely at discomforting the Tories, like inviting Lady Thatcher back to Downing Street, and abolishing the 10p tax band.
But Labour’s main problem is the economy, not Brown’s demeanour.
16. Isn’t Labour’s main problem the fact that they are almost broke?
11. The problem with ‘greater commitment and urgency’ is that when you are on the up what you say is true. When your on a down it can look like panic.
The Freedland article getting airtime on Radio 4.
8. James - being “in tune with your tribe” is surely the one lesson that the Blair legacy teaches one NOT to be? Blair made it clear that for a politician the be vaguely popular, you have to be against tribal partisan politics as much as the post-class public are. Of all the things levelled at Blair, the idea that he was “political” is just not one of them - who, then, would have attributed as a positive, Brown’s connection with Labour?
I think it is completely the opposite. People had some optimism at the first because they thought he might be a more honest, noble version of the Blair detachment from partisanship. No-one (apart from hard-core lefties) were hoping that he swung back to the core Left. As it happens, he has kind of kept his promise but managed to detach himself from the centre who value professionalism as well as the left who value ideals. What a tragicomedy.
8 - Good argument and possibly the very first seeds of doubt. But I’d put my finger on that Iraq visit in the middle of the Tory conference that truly began the collapse.
(It also produced some of the fiercest ever exchanges here between two of our favourites. I watched in morbid but riveted fascination as Jack W and ChrisD oozed venom from every pore at each other
. They have since been reconciled.
Challenging article - but I expect it will take an event to push Brown out; the only one that’s come close so far is the Crewe by-election. Henley, 42 days, Haltemprice, Lisbon, Hazel Blears’ laptop, etc, don’t have the same potency.
I’d anticipate an uncomfortable anniversary for Brown, but if general much was going to force him out he would be long gone.
I should make it to the BBQ tomorrow night, look forward to meeting many of you there.
17 Isn’t Labour’s main problem that they are an unsaleable collective of deceitful low-grade low-life time-serving crease-occupying no-hopers led by a weird and possibly deranged Mountain of Gloom - that are almost broke?
I always believed that Labour’s decision to crown Brown without a contest was a foolish mistake.
Firstly, it prevented a healthy post-Blair debate about the future of the party which would have allowed it to re-focus its energies and priorities (for an example, look how the December 2005 leadership election energised the Conservatives across the country).
It was also an extreme correction to Blair fatigue - rather than a considered response. Brown, of course, had “eliminated” most of his rivals for the top job by then, in various ways.
Brown’s centralising and dictatorial style was also a compelling portent to the future - and this seems to have been ignored by Labour MPs, who instead convinced themselves that Brown “saved” Blair in the 2005 election campaign - in truth, it was much more complex than that.
Mostly, the lack of communications skills and empathy was glossed over with the catch all rationale “we want substance now and not showmanship”. Anyone who had witnessed Brown at Treasury questions every fifth Thursday would have known that he was a poor performer and had a limited repertoire - with absolutely no self deprecation, charm, lightness of touch or wit.
The economy is one aspect of Brown’s weaknesses, but the sheer incompetence of this government is another. If it was a Government of All the Talents, some of Brown’s failings would be overlooked, but instead it is a government of talentless overpromoted placemen, zealously praised to the hilt by hack journalists who believed that Brown was facing the worst crises in Britain since records began.
Brown’s mantra that inflation was 2% sounded bogus at the time, and was repeated as the pound slid, oil and bread prices rose. Looking at issues like the losses of tax data, Northern Rock, and the farcial behaviour over the Lisbon Treaty, one can only marvel how Brown ever bamboozled Labour MPs into thinking he was the right man for the job.
For those who pin everything on Brown’s poor communication skills and lack of empathy, Labour’s main problem is that Miliband and Balls are even worse.
Euro 2008
I hope some of you followed my advice and bet against France yesterday… Dreadful night
26, Balls is undoubtedly, but I’m not sure if the Milibands are worse than Brown. They’re nowhere near as media-savvy as Cameron but as bad as Brown? Probably not.
Harman’s as bad. Vacuous and filled with anti-male and anti-white bigotry. “All non-white shortlists” wouldn’t win back Labour’s working class voters.
28- fantastic night for Italy.
It was sad though to see the last remnants of that great side take its last breath.
Louise Kasey is truly odious.
Another 4 soldiers killed in Afghanistan. God this is a terrible time…. so sad.
20. Anatole - if the Labour leadership detatches itself from its ideology and membership, it almost inevitably ends up with:
- A much reduced membership
- An unreliable core vote (this doesn’t particularly matter when things are going well; it matters very much when things are going badly)
- A reliance on large individual donors as the membership can’t pay and the unions won’t, or at least, won’t do for ever
- Incoherent policies
- An excess of tactics and a lack of strategy
- An excess of ‘professional politicians’ leading to an unrepresentative parliamentary party, and especially unrepresentative of Labour’s traditional voters
- The kind of post that MM made at [23]
I disagree with James at [8]. This was all very predictable, and in fact many did predict it before Brown became PM. He won’t be kicked out though: the same aspects of his character that meant that he so demanded an uncontested election (even when the only opposition was John McDonell or Michael Meacher, for goodness sake!), mean he’ll hold on to the job tenaciously.
Brown staying as prime minister is the best electoral asset the Tories have. As Mike has pointed out on here before now, every opinion poll which asked the hypothetical question who party would you vote for Labour led by Chancellor Brown v Cameron, Cameron always came out on top.
Apart from a brief honeymoon spell during the summer of 2007, Brown has always been behind. The more you look at it, the more of an abheration summer 2007 looks. How long ago it seems.
Gordon is the Tiger Woods of Chancellors:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/18/gordonbrown.labour?commentid=dc58c3ee-6294-48e4-8a4d-9045ee194209
re 7. Firstly I am not saying that the Lib Dems will win the by-election. All I am saying is that I think there is better than a 5% chance that they will.
The quality of election literature has nothing to do with how well it is printed or designed but is solely about whether it gets a message over that resonates with the reader. The LDs have a great record at finding the right words for the right time when whey are the main challenger.
The Henley result will come on the day of Gord’s first anniversary. What the Tories need to do is focus on the collapse in Labour’s vote share - it’s now 4/6 with Ladbrokes that they will lose their deposit (<5%)
24 Stewart, in eliminating all his rivals Brown also put his ambitions ahead of effective Govt. What he then inherited was a poisoned chalice filled with all the failings that he had created in the process of doing down his rivals.
John Reid in charge of the military = Underfund the army.
Reid and Alan Milburn in charge of the NHS = block reforms.
etc etc…
29- Tyson
Most on of the former “great” were not playing anyway.
Ribéry’s exit at the 7th minute killed the match.
(obviously the manager will change in a few days. If there is a market, bet on Didier Deschamps)
Yes, it would be out of the frying pan into the fire. From the communication skills and empathy point of view, Johnson, Hutton, Benn or Denham would be much better. Miliband’s huffy arrogance (in particular his indignant frown whenever he’s asked what he considers to be a question beneath his intellectual dignity) would go down particularly badly. He’s just about summed up by the story about his Oxford days, where he wrote that his music tastes were ‘eclectic’, then wrote the dictionary definition.
As it is, watching Brown on the QT leaders’ special next time promises to be gruesome. I expect it to at least resemble that moment in one of the 92 US debates where George HW Bush got flustered, defensive and peevish when asked how the recession had affected him personally (it’s available on YouTube).
I’m extremely envious of the evident youth of the Tory posters on this site who were apparently born very very recently. Blair was Thatcher’s natural heir. Draconian State control started with Thatcher and as she got away with it Blair naturally perfected the art form with more professional spin doctors. Thatcher was the real break with the past and had it been up to her she would have happily taken over the Crown too - look at the bumpy relationship with the Queen during her premiership. Both Thatcher and Blair had great carisma, a quality sadly lacking with Brown. However, “great” people often marginalise potential “quality” successors for the simple reason that they can’t tolerate a possible challenge to them. This happened both with Thatcher and Blair. Cameron will be a great PM but just as predictably when his power is on the wane the likelihood is that he will also pass the baton onto a nonentity. Major surprised many of us by winning an election without the support of his own cabinet but that was more by accident than by design.
An even older PM said (when I was still at school) that a week is a long time in politics so should Brown (horror of horrors) make a comeback before 2010 don’t shed too many tears into your Weetabix.
32. Agree with some bits but not others.
First three points - so what? That’s modern, post-class politics for you.
As for “incoherent policies” and “an excess of tactics and a lack of strategy” - this all depends on the leader. It goes hand-in-hand with that other legacy of Blair, Presidentialization. So fine, if we were to turn back the clocks to an era cabinet government, to party machine politics and to great class movements and their corresponding voting blocks, then yes we avoid this linkage. As it is we are floundering around trying to work out whether “Blairism” is a cause or effect of our new world. I believe it is the latter, not the former, so why try and resist the tide?
37. Nice to see France return to being the mediocre outfit they traditionally have been. Hard to gauge how good Italy are though, having seen them up against such geriatric and crippled opposition…
Yesterday Gordon Brown gave a (possibly hastily arranged) speech on Liberty and Security. Strikingly its generally reported in the press by the Sketchwriters, generally ignored by the political reporters as a serious contribution. His supporters in the press, people like Jackie Ashley or Polly Toynbee, seem to have given up on him and even Kevin McGuire in todays Mirror piece is hopeful only of Labour as biggest party as best outcome in 2010.
It is dangerous with two years to go to write Brown off but its difficult to see how he can change and recover. The office of Prime Minister has magnified his bad characteristics and diminished his strengths, as David Herdson says predicable but still shocking in the speed of his fall.
37-Chris- the French defence in 1998- Thuram, Lizy, Dessy, and forget the name of the 4th (used to kiss Barthez’s head- went to Utd)- unbelievable, awesome, the best ever. In the quarter’s Italy did not manage to get 1 shot on goal in the game.
That 1998 side was unbeatable, and marked a magical period for France.
43,
Frank Le Beouf.
He will survive because the Labour party hasn’t the gonads to replace him: as we all know, they could’ve knifed him on the Ides of March (aka 42 Day Detention) but they didn’t.
This is shame for them (ahem) as I think he is such a terrible leader he will lead them close to oblivion.
For instance he seems he is about to fulfil the Smithson-Thomas Rule yet again: i.e. that given a choice of policies he will, unerringly, choose the policy which will cause him and his party the most damage.
This time it’s Europe. A leader with any sense would have detected the mood in the country, and the mood across Europe, and thought - I will show a little respect for democracy, and the law: I will pause British ratification. He didn’t even have to cancel ratification, he could have just paused it. This would have seemed statesmanlike and morally correct, it would also have been very popular with the press and the public.
But no. Because he lacks courage - as Freedland precisely points out - he is too scared of Sarko and Merkel’s anger and disdain, so he is forcing through ratification today in the Lords.
This is disgraceful on an objective moral basis, it is also stupid and self-destructive. Who cares what Sarko and Merkel think - they will find something else to worry about in a month; besides, Gordon Brown is prime minister of Great Britain, not a viceroy from Brussels. But he is damaging himself and his party because of his intense personal cowardice; paradoxically, as he does so, he gives the impression of being an arrogant, elitist, hypocritical liar.
Result!
The stupidity of this enforced and unwarranted ratification is underlined by the fact that even fanatical europhiles, like Shirl the Pearl, now seem unsure that Lisbon should go ahead:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/18/foreignpolicy.eu
Tish tish, Gordon.
41- Ketley
If France is a “mediocre outfit” (quite a right assessment of their performance in this euro, by the way) how do you rate “not even managing to qualify” England: amazingly crap? incredibly inept? ridiculously overpaid bunch of losers?
and your “geriatric” comment is stupid. If anything the team that played yesterday was a bit too young: Benzema(20) Ribery (25), Clerc (25), Evra (27), Toulalan (25),Nasri (21), Gomis (23) are all good players but not yet ready. All the oldies were on the bench. Except if you count Henry as an oldie and Makelele as a crippled… How about you new shining team with youngsters lead by this new chap David Becksomething?
43-44- It was Laurent Blanc (Leboeuf only played the final becaus Blanc was suspended).
who was that chap that Evan Davis was interviewing this morning on radio 4? i think that he is giving a speech at the Mansion House tonight. i would tear up my ticket and ask for a refund. clueless bugger!
43- Anyway we were a bit lucky to win it in 1998. The competition were we had our best team ever was the Euro 2000.
48 agree. he was pitiful
35. The problem is that when the Tories start to get the message right and have a consistent and attractive design and quality as well, then your message can start to look dated and irrelevant - especially if it’s poorly presented. But it’s not just that.
I suspect the Tories are becoming very sophisticated at targeting different categories of voters with a quality message, that is well presented, certainly from what I saw in Henley.
5% looks generous to me, Mike. My concern is wider though. It’s a by election and there will be some swing to the LD’s. Once again this will be used as an excuse for not reforming their now dated and unsophisticated campaigning tactics.
Which party HQ did you get into, Reflecting? Or did you get into both?
I ask, because you speak a though you have seen all the literature produced by both leading candidates.
I can’t see why the lib dems will have more of a chance in Henley than before. The tories are on a national high compared to the lib dems slump, and the lib dem election machine failed spectacularly in C&N to make any headway.
50 About the same as you then in bias dogma repeated day after day, oferring no insight.
42. The thing I found really funny about Brown’s pathetic speech yesterday was that at the same time he was assuring us that his government would keep us safe with all its eccentric authoritarian proposals, a certain Mr. Abu Qatada was released from prison.
If the government were remotely serious about tackling the terrorist threat, this gentlemen and his various colleagues would have been expelled from the country long ago.
But of course they aren’t - they are just interested in posturing and trying to score political points. If the hideous 42 day proposal every gets into law, it will be misused by the police and the powers that be to harass various small fry, while the big fish remain untouched.
O/T - This will be popular…with felons. Pretty insane.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1027314/On-run-Count-time-served-convicts-told.html
Gordon Brown’s survival is on the agenda. I now think he will survive for the while, but one more crisis could be critical for him. His almost complete lack of support anywhere in the media makes it very difficult to see how Labour can make a substantial recovery under him. The last time that the Guardian turned on Labour was 1983. Not an encouraging precedent.
I wrote on here a couple of days ago that I personally felt more at risk from a repeat of last year’s floods than I did from terrorism. Brown’s handling of the floods was presented as one of the highlights of his capabilities during the honeymoon period.
Today the media are reporting that there are still 5,000 families (I think) not yet back in their homes. I find this is a testament to the government’s incompetence on a real here and now threat. There appears to be little urgency to tackle even the basic issues of flood defences let alone the longer term problem of buildings on the flood plain. So one year on, another of his so called achievements is now even less valuable than a pile of dust.
7, 35 - agree with you there.
This is natural Tory territory, they’re high in the polls and by all reports getting a lot more sophisticated at targetting. This should and will be an easy win for them.
By implication, anything other than a resounding victory (20 points) asks serious questions of the Cameron leadershp.
40 “Draconian state control started with Thatcher. “. I think not. In 1979 we had exchange controls limiting the amount of money you could take out of the country and for most large companies if you wanted to adjust your prices you needed to apply to a Price Commission. Part of the challenge left by Thatcher is how to cope with the greater freedom we now have – globalisation, deregulation, the decline of deference and the absence of rigid social norms of behaviour.
59. Oh ho, and so the silly expectations game starts…
56 — this seems to concern not prisoners who escape but those who are released too early. Holding convicts responsible for errors by the state (or prison governer) seems unduly harsh. Remember the cat and mouse act?
4. Very interesting. I look forward to seeing the results on the question; Should Labour field a candidate?
Harry at 55: “If the government were remotely serious about tackling the terrorist threat, this gentlemen and his various colleagues would have been expelled from the country long ago.”
A serious question: how, given the constraints accepted by all three major parties? The issue is simply stated but not easy to resolve:
1. As members of the EU we are collectively bound by the ECHR. That will continue to be the case if the Human Rights Act is repealed - that will simply mean that people we seek to deport will appeal to Continental judges instead of Britisah ones.
2. The courts have so far proved reluctant to accept that some of the bilateral agreements (not to torture and execute suspects) with the countries to whom we would like to deport people are watertight.
3. If the potential deporteee wins an appeal to the courts, he cannot legally be deported.
What do you expect Cameron to do about it?
59 A win, by any majority, will limit damage to Cameron as the excuses of “voters not bothering because it was a sure win”, “Boris a hard act to follow” etc can be rolled out, a loss would be. I am surprised at the complacency other Tory posters are displaying, its not in the bag and Chris Grayling isn’t Eric Pickles. Shame David Davis has taken the spotlight away as IMHO the campaign will be hurt by activists looking north.
59. Oh I agree..real insight there..If the Tories win by only say 15 or 16% then I think DC is on his way out..
Back to reality. only a Bromley or worse will ask serious questions of DC..
64.
If its true that our being members of the EU means we can’t deport scum like Qatada, then lets get out of the EU?
As Brown keeps telling us, the first priority of a government is to keep its citizens safe. If its a choice between keeping in the EU or keeping British people safe, then lets pull out.
64 France, Italy are bound by same ECHR but are able to deport people viewed as a danger, why is it harder in UK?
21.”8 - Good argument and possibly the very first seeds of doubt. But I’d put my finger on that Iraq visit in the middle of the Tory conference that truly began the collapse.”
Totally agree, it was a truly cringe worthy political miscalculation. There was that element of spite in trying to derail the Conservative Conference - because as PM, he could. The *excuse* of announcing those troop withdrawals in Iraq instead of in Parliament as previously promised was indefensible as his colleagues discovered, especially when the facts in the statement did not stand up to close scrutiny and had been declared very misleading before he arrived back in the UK.
Managing to make a previous PM who usually avoided the Westminster political scene so angry that they took to the airwaves to denounce you behaviour on every news outlet is some achievement!
Nick
Do what Italy do and derogate from it. Thats how they could deport all the Romanians in the shanty towns.
O/T,
I argued with you some time ago that inflation would be above 3% at the end of this year, you said it would be back below. Do you still believe that too be the case?
64. Well huff-puff Nick!
All those artificial barriers could be removed easily if you had the will to do it. If you really need to, pass a wartime-style ordinance allowing the expulsion of dangerous individuals and bypass the courts system entirely. After all, you keep on telling us how dire the risks from terrorism are, sending tanks off to Heathrow etc…
But you won’t because the reason you want 42 days, ID cards etc. is to control the population at large, not deal with genuinely dangerous people.
Harry,
Its could derogation but Nick does not talk about it. Other European countries use it. This government hides behind the HRA.
Could should be “Called”
67. GIN - it isn’t true. Nick and his chums are just hiding behind that excuse, as they do on so many other issues. The EU is the biggest boon incompetent and craven politicians have.
2
I do hope all those who oppose the 42 days detention, will be fighting to keep Abu Qatada in this country, and not be supporting this authoritarian governments attempt to deport him.
If his bail conditions are relaxed Abu could even campaign on behalf of David Davis.
Whats 42 days detention got to do with a government that will not deport a person who is not conducive to the secruity of the country?
ECHR is nothing to do with the EU.
69 - When looking for the first cause of something though we often need to be looking at something small and insignificant. I think that the decision to cancel his holiday may not have seemed much at the time but it started to trigger doubt. Of course the troop ploy was a monumental miscalculation, and any adviser worth his pay would have said so. Maybe they did, we won’t know until the next round of memoirs.
I think that the Gordon’s biggest problem is that he is still trying too hard.
76. Agree with your point..could the poster at 75 please explain the link between locking up innocent people for 42 days and wanting to deport a known terroist.
76. absolutely nothing, and coldstone knows it.
If someone is a “known terrorist” why isn’t he charged with something that he has done? - Tax evasion worked for Al Capone.
76
Fellow travellers!!
Get your news two days late from the MSM.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun18/barackobama.hillaryclinton
PB had a thread on this on Monday evening.
81. That was because old Scarface had actually committed tax evasion…the “known terroist” (I accept the quotation marks) has not committed any crimes in this country (as far as I am aware)he has in others but the ECHR prevents us allowing deportation to those countries.
48/50 I agree he sounded like a rabbit caught in the headlights. Goodness knows what he’s going to say to the City. The line from Goverment ministers seems to be “It’s been a marvellous ten years due to our excellent stewardship. There are a few problems at the moment but that’s all the fault of other countries”.
Not sure what your trying to say there Coldstone?
Apologies if this has already been flagged and kicked about, but as it is germane to the post, I thought it worth flagging - from a LabourHome survey of 400 Labour activists and supporters:
How much time would you be prepared to give Gordon Brown to begin reversing Labour’s fortunes, before you would want him to step aside?
37.60% - He should lead the party into the next general election
28% - He should be given until Party conference (September 2008) to turn things around
17.90% - He should resign now
16.50% - He should be given until the May 2009 elections (Europeean & Local Elections)
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/6/17/960/86435
35 Mike S “The quality of election literature has nothing to do with how well it is printed or designed but is solely about whether it gets a message over that resonates with the reader.”
I am afraid that is not true. In extreme cases, such as the soviet period Samizdat sheets it might be true as there was no other access to unofficial news, but in a society where voters are drenched with carefully prepared and targeted literature, shoddy material from one of the three major parties gives the voters a message that was not intended.
The medium is the message as much as the words and images within it.
85,
They would add,, but should, “We did not save any money during the good times, so we have no savings to help pay our way through the current bad ones.”
Do you want unfunded tax cuts, just ask Captain Darling prior to a bye election.
Re Henley I don’t think the Lib Dem Peers supporting Labour on the Lisbon Treaty ratification vote will be well received. It does not strike me as a Europhile place!
65 - yes they may look North, but will any actually want to go there?
66 - back to reality, the DD events have thrown a rather uncomfortable spotlight on Cameron. For once, scrutiny is being placed on his policy platform - its not enough simply to not be Labour, and the Spellman affair is in danger of pushing old messages (”Tory Sleaze”). A poor result runs the risk of fuelling that particular bandwagon.
86
If you do not support 42 days, you are playing the role of ‘Useful Idiot’
87. I love the way they spin that disastrous result for Broon,
[In bold] “More than a third say he should Labour into the next election”..
yes but almost 2/3rd’s says he should resign now or within the year. From Labour activists of all people that is a damning indictment.
93..sorry ..”..Lead Labour…”..though my guess is he will labour into the next general election..
67, Great GIN, could you tell me when your hero Mr Cameron will be adopting that into Conservative Party Policy?
I’d really love to know…
92. I see, your just putting randomn words on the screen now.
64
Clearly if we are not able to deport terrorists and other criminals from our country the current law is not suitable,so whatever is required to change it,either the repeal of the human rights act and or the opting out of the ECHR is required.
If something doesn’t work you change it.
Fitzy the Fruit’n'veg man may stand as Independent Labour; promised Question Time slot…
http://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/Common-Sense-Fitzy-may-be.4194397.jp
OK, On Topic, having just read the Freedland article, I have to say, its almost schizophrenic. At the same time as being dambing in its criticism of Brown, it seems to imply that somehow Brown can “turn things around.” As though somehow all his flaws and personality traits can be changed. In the real world, of course, its not going to happen. Brown is a ditherer. He is a political coward. He is scheming and calculating. Thats just who Brown is. He isn’t going to change and Labour can’t change him.
The truth is, Labour and commentators like Freedland called it catastrophically wrongly. They ignored the opinion which told them for years that the public didn’t want Brown as PM. They thought that as he had spent so long plotting and scheming that Brown had to have an idea of what he actually wanted to achieve once he got it - Without understanding that there was never any evidence that this was the case. That all Brown wanted was the job, because to him it was a point of principle - That he felt Blair and Mandy had betrayed him in 94. It was never about governing the country or having big, radical ideas for what he would do - Rather it was all about Gordon Browns ego and sense of entitlement.
As to where we go from here, I agree with Sean T. Labour will stick with Brown to the end now. They voted for the horrific 42 days precisely because they wanted to shore up Brown. That tells you everything you need to know. Brown will take Labour into the general election. He will not change his personality and he will not come up with those radical poliices that prove to the public he actually has an idea of what he wants to achieve. He will have better weeks followed by worse weeks, better polls followed by worse polls, but his and Labour’s fate is now sealed.
Labour MP’s now take on the persona of passengers in a plane with Brown as a Kamikaze pilot. He will lead them to electoral disaster. The public are in the mood to rise up against the political class and to give the government a huge kicking. The fact that Labour have Brown as their leader will only increase the scale of their electoral disaster. I think Cameron will win a landslide in 2010.
There is no legal or moral case for holding someone for 42 days without charge.
Reviews of France’s performance should include Scotland beating them home and away in qualifying.
“how do you rate “not even managing to qualify” England: amazingly crap? incredibly inept? ridiculously overpaid bunch of losers? ”
Sounds about right.
WRT Abu Qatada, other EU member states seem to have few problems deporting foreign nationals who are a threat to them. Where there’s a will, there’s a way.
95. He won’t. I don’t speak for Cameron or the Conservative Party. Just myself.
99 - “The public are in the mood to rise up against the political class and to give the government a huge kicking… I think Cameron will win a landslide in 2010.”
Ermm - explain to me how Cameron isn’t “the political class”?
The reason why Davis resonates so well at the moment is precisely this. He is the “honest working class Tory” standing up for what he believes in, versus the “vacilliating Bullingdon Toffs” who, Blair-like, follow public opinion in the hope of being elected.
Is the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty a high profile issue in the Henley byelection? If not, I cannot see that it would influence the outcome greatly.
But would Cameron seriously want to bring the EU to the top of the list of issues? I thought his strategy was to find a way of marginalising the Europe issue, for internal party political reasons.
104 - a pedant writes: that should, of course, have been “vacillating” …
77. EU, ECHR, EC, EP, EUROJUST, blah blah blah.
Thomas’s second law. Any political institution whose title or acronym begins with the capital letter E is a total load of bollocks.
64-Ignore Eurocourts. By the time they get their act together Abu Qatada would be at the tender mercies of the Jordanian Mukhabarat. Wonder if they have 42 day detention there?
Unfortunately though, it seems that whenever someone becomes PM they get bitten by the Euro-bug and a desire to be remembered for something, not to “rock the boat”, be “odd man out”, or similar claptrap. Must be all those flunkies whispering sweet nothings in expensive Euro-funded restaurants in Brussels. At least Tony never pretended otherwiser. Gordon was supposed to be “notoriously sceptic” or something like that.
Unless held to account DC runs the same risk.
Angus MacNeill’s support for David Davis
“Angus MacNeil — the Scottish Nationalist MP whose complaint prompted the cash-for-honours enquiry — tells me that he would be delighted to offer Davis a helping hand in the contest, which is expected to take place on July 10.
“As a Scottish Nationalist I try to avoid English politics, but I’d go and campaign for David Davis if he wanted me to,” says MacNeil. “I admire his principles and from what I know of him, he is a straightforward and honest man. Gordon Brown’s argument for 42-day detention is all about keeping him in Downing Street for another two years: no wonder he’s bottling the fight with David Davis.””
coldstone, why don’t you take your McCarthyite claptrap over to one of the American far-right sites like FreeRepublic, where it belongs?
104 - Go on Dr. Tabbers…let’s have another rant about your own sink comprehensive…you know you want to….and you have been away for so long.
98
Marvellous news. I heard this fellow on R5 lve, he will be immensely damaging to Labour IMHO.
104. Because Cameron and the Tories are the Opposition. You want to give the government a pasting and throw them out of office with a flee in their ear, then ultimately you have to vote for the Opposition. Thats what happened in 97 and thats what will happen in 2010.
In the meantime, political outsiders like David Davis and various others that come along willg enerate massive public support, but finally, the peak of the publics wrath will come on the general election day when they finally get to kick Labour out. They will not miss their opportunity.
96/100
When I was in the ME, (some years ago) I made some, ‘Liberal’ comments about the local population, a Warrent Officer looked me up and down and said, ‘Let me give you some advice son, never trust a f***ing w*g’ his sentiments of course not mine.
I do wonder though how many people would agree with him?
46 Do you feel Wenger will ever Manage France before his retirement. Kind of his duty is it not.
114 - I’d agree with him in that you do need some advice son - a lot of it
O/T - Latest on a referendum re-run in Ireland:
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0618/1213735260051.html
I think it all means that, while by no means certain, the 5/2 still available from Paddy Power remains very good value.
There must be something wrong with post numbers in the last few threads as some comments that refer back to particular posts don’t seem to fit the post contents.
Is this posts in moderation slipping in at odd points and upsetting the sequence?
116
Really! I see that a Welsh Tory called Italians, ‘Greasy Wops’ wonder if he would?
p.s.
My wife’s maiden name ended in ‘I’
107 - Sean T - I guess you’ll feel that way about the English Parliament in a few years then, eh? [insert smiley - I can't]
The pressure will be on for another vote by early 2009. There is a pressing need to sort out number of MEPs in EU Parliament, which is an emotive matter for a number of countries.
The Lisbon Treaty included the changes to EU Parliament bringing number down to 750+President from the present 785 following Romania & Bulgaria’s accession. The current Treaties set maximum MEPs at 732 so there will need to be some resolution of that before the 2009 elections - either horse trading MEP numbers to bring them down to 732, keeping the current 785 or trying to introduce the Lisbon changes.
58 - it’s a year next week from when the rains came to Hull. I still have a friend in rented accommodation, who is now facing the real prospect of a second Christmas away from home.
I’ve no idea whose fault that is, but it does seem a quite remarkable state of affairs.
“ECHR is nothing to do with the EU.”
Correct only to a certain point. Whilst the EHCR is part of the Council of Europe and that body predates the EEC (1949 rather than 1952), they do share the same flag and anthem. In spite of the Council opf Europe representing far more countries than the EU, the two are closely linked - inevitably perhaps.
Actually one of the complaints in recent years has been from the Non EU members about how much the EU influence has increased within the CoE with the ECHR looking to the EU for guidance on what should be considered acceptable. This may well cause a lot of problems in the near future if court challenges to EU decisions over the Lisbon Treaty go as far as the ECHR.
As a Eurosceptic I should say that I think the CoE and the ECHR is a sensible solution to the problems of trying to maintain a basic standard of democracy and justice in Europe - so long as it maintains a helathy distance from the EU which many of us consider to be one of the main threats to democracy and justice.
123 CoE?
124, Council of Europe, I think.
125 Didn’t think it mean’t Church of England!
125
Yep. Saves writing out Council of Europe all those times.
I’ve been thinking and there’s one (probably unintentional) effect of Davis’ resignation that could be fatal to Brown. The PM can not now backtrack on any of his authoritarian measures. If he does so now it will look like he got all shaky because of DD’s stunt, and any hint of strength would be completely undone.
So now he will have to persist in ID cards, 42 days, CCTV etc, causing left-wing support to flock to the Lib Dems as they lose all faith in Labour being a party of liberty. That could lead the party close to oblivion.
Dissent will not be tolerated.
Trixy falls foul of the EU - again.
http://more-to-life-than-shoes.blogspot.com/2008/06/this-is-not-democracy.html
128 - “So now he will have to persist in ID cards, 42 days, CCTV etc, causing left-wing support to flock to the Lib Dems as they lose all faith in Labour being a party of liberty.”
Dont get too excited. While very few people here are in favour of those things quite a lot of, er, normal people are. And Labour’s position on these issues has been clear for some years and through lots of elections so they’re hardly going to cause a further huge shift in support in the near future. Sure it’s not just wishful thinking?
122 Politics Home reports that Phil Woodas is on the case regarding flooding
“We have detailed discussion going on with the Association of British Insurers to renew the statement of principles by which risk based insurance is available,” he said.
He added: “A huge amount of work has been going on since the floods of last year to improve the situation.” He also defended the government’s action to defend again further flooding.
“You can never guard that any level of spend will prevent all flooding.
“It is unfair to say nothing has changed there is huge amount of work going on,” he said.
Is this huge amount of work actually lots of planning meetings in the ministry, setting up Flood Victim Support Groups, talking, briefing etc. or is it actual clearing storm drains, culverts and ditches? Is it re-building or reinforcing flood defences?
130, regarding 42 days and CCTV, you’re right.
But ID cards are insane on moral and political grounds. They’ll cost tens of billions, won’t work and create the ultimate hacker’s wet dream of a database.
Plus, many feel so strongly against them they’d rather revolt than accept their introduction.
The money alone is reason enough to drop them.
Hmm. Raises the question of whether Brown is holding a wolf by the ears with ID cards. Afraid to hold on, afraid to let go.
Some Good News for Gordon !!
Check out Newsweek. Brown is the world’s favorite (or least disliked) democratic leader.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/141764
“If this all sounds like bad news for the West, it is. Yet there’s one hopeful sign in the numbers if you look hard enough. The one major democrat who did score well was Britain’s Gordon Brown (never mind that his numbers are tanking at home). That’s important, for Brown happens to be the one national leader who’s staked his reputation on finding new, cooperative solutions to a range of global ills. As Holbrooke puts it, “Brown is the person on the list who’s by far the most identified with solving transnational problems, such as climate change, HIV/AIDS, African development and so on.” Princeton’s Slaughter agrees: “Brown is less interested in his country’s narrow interests than genuinely trying to address” global crises. Britain’s prime minister, she argues, “is giving effective voice to the aspirations of the world’s poorest people, to billions who often feel they have no say.”"
133, great news! Everyone who can’t vote for Gordon loves him!
Wait a minute…
:p
133. Perhaps we could trade him for Merkel. Or Carla Bruni ?
Coldstone - it is the sort of stereotyping that I am afraid I frequently fall into when I hear someone is a Conservative. Though I suppose as you have a choice about becoming a Conservative…….
Carla please. They can have all the women in the cabinet as well apart from Caroline Flynn.
Does labour have any visible campaigning presence in henley?
we all know how shot of funds they are,so would be interested to hear whether they are running even a token campaign. They could be headingfor an embarrassingly small vote, even in a “no hoper” of a constituency
It is Flint isn’t it? Flynn is the leftwinger with the beard!
sorry, “short” not “shot”
Sorry to go slightyl off thread but did anyone see Milliband on Sky TV this am?
Is he trying to grow a moustauche?
It was extremely diconcerting to watch our most senior foreign affairs dignitry talking about the serious and dreadfully high casulty rate in Afganistan whist failing to grow facial hair.
141, I find it particularly amusing as it plays into his schoolboy image. That, and I started shaving when I was 12:p
115- Punter
I’m not sure. Not now anyway. He’s got a wonderful job and a wonderful salary. Leave that for a much more uncertain and unrewarding job would be madness.
He could be tempted if Arsenal ever fires him.
Will Sir Alex Ferguson ever coach Scotland…?
133 Jonathan, that article in part explains the Gordon Brown question - why was he so unprepared for office? It’s because he saw the PM job as being the vehicle for the structural changes he thought required in international trade & finance, foreign aid, development and other global ills and neglected the core of the job which is the domestic agenda. IMHO he thought that was all set fair and he would have time to concentrate on his world vision.
Sky: Wintertons breached parliamentary rules over expenses..
also
Davis applies for the Chiltern Hundreds
143. Sir Alex did coach Scotland at the Mexico world cup after Jock (Big Jock Knew) Stein popped his clogs during qualifying.
138 - Ladbrokes have 4/6 on a lost deposit for Labour.
RodCrosby You have omitted the key word ‘unknowingly’ in that sentence.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1319415,00.html
143 - I thought his next step was to become President of PSG?
147. they’d only let me put £75 on though…
148 - Yes, they were grossly negligent rather than dishonest.
148. since when was ignorance of the law a defence?
Both Maggie and Blair were loved in the US when they were at their least popular here.
151 So do they pay us back what they misclaimed?
Can anyone explain the difference between the Wintertons and the Balls’s arrangements ?
I’m sure that Mr Dickson will be along in a minute, but it looks like the shine is starting to come off the Nats administration in Reekie…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7460267.stm
It appears that government security lapses which put national security and private individuals at risk is now so commonplace that it does not even get top billing on the news sites.
Is that good news for Brown, or bad news?
What a topsy-turvy world. Conway and the Wintertons keep their seats after plundering the public purse, while Davis is lauded for wasting another £100,000 of our money on an ego trip…
RodCrosby Parliamentary expenses are rules not laws, as you know. You seem to be straining every sinew at the moment to do down the Tories, any Tory with anything.
Now you are moving into half truths.
O/T and back onto Henley. As the Tory prospects continue to be discussed here are my thoughts from a couple of threads ago…
I’m going to Henley on Friday and will report back - but from what I’ve heard, it should be a comfortable Tory win. You can shock them once (like at Bromley), but twice would be cavalier in the extreme and there’s little evidence that Cameron is that slipshod.
The question for gamblers is that is 20-1 a fair price for the Lib Dems? It implies a 5% chance of them winning. That’s probably about right given commanding Tory poll leads and an apparent lack of complacency (a la Bromley).
So what’s sort of benchmark should be set?
Labour held three by-elections on the same day in 1994 - Newham, Barking and Dagenham - all three starting on 50% with the second placed party on 30% (albeit the Tories). In all three they polled over 70% on low turnouts.
Now Henley doesn’t have Labour second, but the important factor will be vote share - Labour in 94-96 usually put on vote substantial share in seats they held - it was a clear sign they were heading for a big win. They, of course, didn’t lose a single by-election to the Lib Dems.
So as far as Henley goes the Tories should be looking to get a 60%+ share - leaving the Lib Dems languishing in the low 30%s and the others scrabbling over lost deposits. A Tory share of 65%+ is sign of a coming landslide (just as the three east London by-elections were).
Sky: Labour won’t stand in H&H - official
161. Brave Sir Gordon…
@156:
When I am King, saying the word “superbug” will be punishable by being hung, drawn and quaterly.
Clostridium Difficile isn’t even multiply-resistant, being easily treated by specific antibiotics like metronidazole. It’s just that ordinary antibiotics, in destroying gut flora, and help colitis spread.
BBC’s science reportage: 100% wrong, 100% of the time.
159. It’s plain that they are a “law unto themselves”…
Interesting how little respect Labour have for public votes given they set up this little stunt themselves:
http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/Abandon-Lisbon/
130. I think a lot of left-wing people still hope GB will change his mind on some of them.
161. Took them long enough. Alistair Campbell would have decided this immediately, without the dithering.
@161:
I guess that means we win the argument by default.
143 Oh no. I mean more as a final swansong before he retires to teach at the University of Strasbourg.
I remain of the view that Brown will not lead Labour into the General Election. As for the timing of his departure I think the Autumn is a possibility - the Party Conference is bound to be submerged in speculation about his future. If he gets through that then another set of local (and European) election results next June anywhere near as bad as this year’s will lead to panic in the PLP and Brown’s enforced departure.
Of course there could be another unexpected event in the meantime - another Crewe-like by-election for instance.
Labour = Cowards!
Davis v fruit
Davis should announce that he’s funding his campaign entirely with private donations — and I bet he’ll receive enough to do that, too!
OT. Could be an interesting press conference later today re the US elections.
http://www.bloggernews.net/116278
I’m quite sure Cameron would love the opportunity to get rid of the Wintertons!
Message for Mike Smithson. Did you work a few years back at Ashorne Hill?
90. “Re Henley … It does not strike me as a Europhile place!”
Err… wasn’t Michael Heseltine the MP prior to Johnson?
About as Europhile as Tories get (remember Westlands?) and he was very popular there.
169, I think he will, but that the period of most danger for him is up to and including the next conference. Past that I can’t see Labour ousting him.
Shocking to hear Brown’s dithered and eventually decided to be cowardly. Who would’ve thought it?
161 - A dreadful decision by Labour. Gordon Brown can so easily be stigmatised now as the man who habitually runs away from elections.
149- Neil
That was a pretty hilarious rumor. Wenger has never set foot near the PSG (the new chairman is Charles Villeneuve, a journalist famed for cop-loving documentaries) and is well advised to do so.
PSG is the permanent comic relief of the incredibly dull French Championship.
168- Maybe so.
I certainly hope he will but probably not before 10 years.
Whatever he does, he won’t teach at Strasburg after his retirement because there is a stringent upper age limit for university teachers in France (mad, I know).
He may go back to his pretty little village in Alsace (wonderful region, for those that never visited).
178. Agreed. But given his cowardice it’s surprising that the announcement was made *before* PMQs.
161 - If the government won’t even defend itself then it’s time for a vote of no-confidence.
The actions of a dying party, I never thought it would come to this but there really is no point in the labour party as it exists anymore. Torn away from its roots, withering until it no longer feels as though it has to justify its changed existence. Someone in the party halt this now, for crying out loud, before the blood and sweat of all those who came before ends up as dust, a half forgotten memory of a once proud tradition.
161. Another display of ‘courage’ from Brown!
Is there anyone in the cabinet who isn’t either a liar, a poltroon, a crook, or all three?
179 Hang on is that now illegal under EU age discrimination laws? Funny how there’s no such age limit on geriatric French Politicians……
176 Michael Heseltine wasn’t a proper Conservative as he was originally a National Liberal
180. No doubt Brown has some witty line prepared for the inevitable question, which he’ll mangle grotesquely.
Actually, it must be quite depressing to prep him for PMQs. Knowing that however good the material you give him is, he’ll still deliver it with all the flair and panache of a suicidal actuary.
179 - I’ll never believe what I read in the papers again
You see, the more Brown runs away from the electorate, the bigger Labour’s meltdown will be when he is forced to call the general election. The way Labour are going, and the general sense of cowardice they are setting themselves up as, I could see Labours vote share actually falling behind the Liberals when they do ultimately put themselves before the voters. They building this up to such a degree that when the public get their chance, they will virtually run to the polls to send Brown the message he is endlessly running away from.
183- Punter
come on, we have made some efforts regarding our politicians: our president is four years younger than your PM!
“Conservative Party Nutter/Senior Shadow Spokesman* wastes everyone’s time and money”.
Running away from a totally unnecessary election could be seen as quite sensible. Sorry but I think Davis whilst helping to bring home the illiberal nature of the Labour Gov. has not helped the Conservative party much.
* delete as appropriate
So, will Cameron go on general election cowardice? No referendum, no general election and now he won’t even contest a by-election.
181. Tosh. No previous MP has ever precipitated a “vanity” by-election..
So if there’s a first time for that, there can be also be a first time for a Labour “prudent” withdrawal.
Davis is abusing the conventions of the House, and Darling has it in his power to deny him, but sadly probably won’t have the bottle to do so..
A sad day for Parliament all round..
Is the real reason not that Nu Lab can’t afford the deposit ?
189. Perhaps you subscribe to the Bob Mugabe line that all elections are a waste of money ?
188 - What is this obsession with young politicians anyway? Much of Labour’s best talent is on the back benches, apparently discarded because it is superannuated.
The political age window seems to be closing ever tighter in this country: George Osborne and James Purnell are supposedly too young, while Ming Campbell is supposedly past it. This is very unhealthy.
Davis is abusing the conventions of the House
What rubbish
Lefties don’t seem to like elections when they can’t win them. See also referendum on Lisbon…
189. But it plays to the narrative that Brown is both arrogant and cowardly;
1. Spending all those years plotting in the shadows against Blair but never having the courage to strike.
2. Ensuring that he had no rival for the Labour leadership, so not having to put himself through an internal Labour Party election.
3. Bottling the general election after building everyone up and along with 1 and 2 ensuring he is in office with mandate from anyone.
4. The Lisbon Treaty/referndum fiasco.
5. Bottling out of defending his anti terror and civil liberites policies.
I’m sure there have been other examples along the way that I have forgotten? Brown appears to be a bully and like all bully’s, when you scratch the surface he is actually a coward!
49- chris from Paris- no way- Euro 2000 the French were played off the park by the Italians. Del Piero missed 2 guilt edge chances to nail it.
In 1998 I cannot remember a goal being scored against the French.
188. Sarkozy is the exception that proves the rule. Most of the National Assembly, various Mayors, Regional Governors etc could pass for an old people’s rest home. BTW Care to comment on the fuss Sarko Jnr is causing? When they asked the Regional Prez if Sarko Jnr would be after his job in 3 years (he’s 21!) the Prez sarcastically replied “Why only 3 years?!”
Surely Afganistan will be the lead in PMQs. If Dave has any sense he will ask for a statement of how long we are going to be there (unanswerable) and then sit down. He can then bring up other issues later Blears lap top, for example - I assume he wont ask about the economy because his policy is do the same as Gordon but better managed - which sounds, and is, a bit weak.
197. what is a ‘guilt edged’ chance??? Was he very sorry he missed?
161,182, 196.. Re H&H: Bottler Brown bottles another election….
What did one opposition Leader say to one PM a long time a go?
“Weak, Weak, Weak”.
194. History is against you. There is not, nor has there ever been an automatic right to resign from the House of Commons.
Nor should there be. Davis sets a bad precedent.
191 - If Alistair Darling attempted to deny David Davis’s campaign, that would be the one thing that would ensure that David Davis’s campaign caught light. In any case, I don’t accept your central point. As has been much noted on here, MPs over the ages have often resigned and stood again, and have done so for a variety of reasons. The cost of doing so is fairly minimal in the grand scheme of things (I suspect that you are far more forgiving of Norman Baker’s use of written questions to pursue political campaigns, which is in all probability far more expensive in aggregate). I think David Davis has acted unwisely, but within his rights.
Of course Darling won’t deny Davis — he’s a bottler just like Brown!
130 While very few people here are in favour of those things quite a lot of, er, normal people are. And Labour’s position on these issues has been clear for some years and through lots of elections so they’re hardly going to cause a further huge shift in support in the near future.
I am not sure. Labour’s weakness here is that these measures are basically designed to create a tough image, not address real problems. If the opposition can change the narrative, to highlight the sheer uselessness of a government that wants to track every citizen’s daily life, and yet cannot deport known terrorists, then the picture changes.
Also a strong state is seen as positive when the electorate trusts the government. When trust is not there, the equation changes.
The electorate can change their mind. The question is will they?
197. The other thing about the 1998 French team, is that they managed to win the World Cup without really having a proper forward at any point.
204 - I suspect Darling is damned either way in your eyes. Stops him and he’s anti-democratic, doesn’t and he’s a bottler! Am I right? It’s a bit childish.
Ed Milliband - answering questions at the moment doesn’t look much like a future PM.
that means Bob Marshall-A will be out campaigning for Davies.
207 — you’re forgetting the 3rd option: Labour runs a candidate against Davis. Except Labour fluffed that one as well.
117. I actually think the chances of a rerun in Ireland have receded, marginally, since yesterday, for this reason: the other small countries, and Ireland, haven’t crumbled to the euro elite quite as expected.
Cf.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/45520114-3cce-11dd-b958-0000779fd2ac.html
The Irish will only revote if forced to do so (whatever Neil says, they surely don’t want to revote). The pressure to revote will only be unbearable - and maybe not even then - if the other states are lined up against them 26-1 by Christmas.
But the Czechs and the Poles are sounding dubious. I think the Poles will eventually submit to the euro-elite, but the Czechs… I’m not so sure.
Their president is highly eurosceptic, the Czech Senate the same. They all despise communism and see glimpses of it in the EU (for jolly good reason - the analogy between Soviet government by Politburo and the unelected Commission is rather sriking).
So they might vote it down - or their court might do the same.
I’d say 5/2 is reasonable now for an Irish revote, and not spectacularly generous.
202 I think anyone can resign (by applying for the Chiltern Hundreds) at anytime. Whether this is a wise move on Davis’s part is a separate issue - there is room for doubt about this.
148 RodCrosby You have omitted the key word ‘unknowingly’ in that sentence.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1319415,00.html
by Witan June 18th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Is this the official spin? These poor unfortunates unknowingly placed their principal residence in trust, unknowingly drew up a rental agreement, and unknowingly started claiming the cost of that rent from Parliament?
Did Hazel Blears knowingly or unkowningly break the official secrets act? Ignorance of the law is no defence.
About the thread:
“This is savage stuff made even more potent because it is from a friend”
That was exactly my point in the other thread when I posted this link. We are now used to see Brown being criticized by the press, and most columnist, but not by Freedland or by Richards, and that’s exactly what we are seeing now.
212. It was refused in 1842 and 1770. It is a matter of grace to be granted the Chiltern Hundreds…
213. Correct.
Wintertons: “We are not knaves; we’re only fools!”
Once again I find myself wondering if RodCrosby is some sort of sad joke put on here to make everyone else look normal:
“Davis is abusing the conventions of the House, and Darling has it in his power to deny him, but sadly probably won’t have the bottle to do so..
A sad day for Parliament all round..”
Unlike all those times that Brown and Labour with the help of their pet speaker have abused the conventions of the house. Labour under Blair and Brown have done more to destroy the reputation of the houses of Parliament than anyone since the Rotten Boroughs were abolished. They have turned Britain into one huge rotten borough. You must feel right at home.
217. we are not debating that now, and in any case two wrongs, etc…
Which part of No doesn’t the PM understand?
GB Mass trick Treaty?
216 Or “we knew we shouldn’t be doing it, we just did know we weren’t allowed to do it”?
Richard at 58 on the floods.
Good point. We had talk about how Gordon ‘dealt with’ the floods. Only people listening from unaffected parts of the country could have been [and were] fooled.
Local TV news in Yorkshire is running a series this week on the long term effects nearly a year on: people yet not in their homes; mental health problems; having to rely on each other in their distress.
The spin that connected Gordon to this ’success’ might not look so wise, now especially as it coincides with his anniversary.
It fits in nicely with the narrative that the impression given that summer did not fit with the reality.
Sky news blog is reporting that Labour will definately not be running a candidate at H&H.
I don’t see how they can retreat on this now without the cries of ‘dithering/because of the polls’ etc
Which village is missing its rod crosby?
I have seen more spine from a bunch of Jellyfish. Nice!
We are discussing abusing Parliament. You are saying that Davis actions do so. I am saying that not only do they not but they are also helping to reverse many of the abuses that Brown and his scumbag party have propogated upon Parliament over the last 10 years.
Davis is gaining support from right across the political spectrum exactly because people are sick and tired of the democratic system being twisted and abused by the government often with the connivance of the opposition parties. Davis’ actions haave made people realise there are one or two politicians who still deserve respect. It is symptomatic of your blind hatred for anything conservative that you cannot see that.
Think Clegg has come up with a good point for the first time!
Like others i feel the problem of rising prices, good positive constructive comment there!
In terms of the thread, I was absolutly right Brown would be naff as PM! You can see right through him - not just occasionally but all the time!
Why is the bizarre advert running above. I think their Target audience would be on Bebo I think.
Richard,
Rod won’t debate with you because he his wrong and cannot string an arguement together hence the “were not debating that now..”
Its akin to Gordon Brown say “I’ll take no lectures..”
Floods, could that be a topic for next week’s PMQs? How much remedial work has been done, and how effective has it been?
Howarth fumbled question. Non answer from Brown on full time defence minister.
All together now:
“Bottler, bottler, the Tories are gonna stop ya…”
The only good thing about Labour not standing is that Davis’ original intention, to embarrass Cameron, can now be more easily exposed.
191
A sad day for Parliament all round..
by RodCrosby June 18th, 2008 at 11:44 am
There have been much sadder. Pork barrel party politics over 42 days was one of many.
Free and fair elections - funny how Labour weren’t able to have one last June.
Seriously, Brown has to look at the way in which elections have been conducted in the UK in the last 4 years, and whether the current postal voting sytem is part of a free and fair electoral system. He hasn’t appeared to have taken any criticisms on board.
I think GB just said a porky
footsoldier what part of this do you not understand:
The Parliamentary Standards Commissioner says two married Tory MPs broke the rules when they claimed Commons’ expenses for their London flat.
However, John Lyon says Sir Nicholas and Ann Winterton did so “unknowingly”.
227 Punter
It has probably been placed as a warning to those attending the PB.com summer barbeque.
Brown says *the changes in DNA we have made* and *Mr Davis thinks we should get rid of DNA* - thought Brown was supposed to be an intellegent man, comments like that just show how crap he really shows himself to be!
@231:
Sometimes, Gab, no matter how hard you wish, things just don’t come true.
214 she clearly broke S8(1) of the Act. It means nothing though as only the Attorney General can take action.
Others have said it is the fault of officials for sending her the material. She though bears responsibility for downloading it on to a personal (or Labour Party) laptop.
I don’t really blame her - ministers should be given a secure ‘Red Box’ laptop. It could have a nice red leatherette finish and brass keys.
Tories are the new Luddites.
Obama leads McCain by 4% in Florida:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/washington/AP-Poll-2008-Florida.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Gabble. Dementia. Sad.
216 I think it’s safe to say it couldn’t be refused today. If the last instance was in 1842…..that’s almost as long ago as the last time a monarch dissolved parliament against the advice of the PM of the day, which I think was in the 1830s.
as far as I am aware DD isn’t against the DNA database entirely just against the collection of innocent people’s DNA and its increase in DNA retention by stealth. Brown just claimed DD wanted to scrap DNA it which is stretching the truth and he knows it.
232. “Pork barrel party politics over 42 days was one of many.”
Are you talking about all the tory MPs who ditched their principles and voted against their consciences, just to score a politival point?
@235:
I don’t care. Dave should have defenestrated the Wintertons ages ago as part of the purge that started with Conway and Spink.
They’d be much happier as part of a UKIP parliamentary rump anyway.
Jimbo Brown always tells porkies in PMQs. Remember Boris was going to cut police in London? Now DD wants to abolish all DNA data bases and all security TV cameras.
231 Doh!
The GOP aren’t desperate at all! Maybe Gordon Brown should try this:
http://blip.tv/file/990887
Ann Winterton, she has some gall to stand up today.
Bring on Kelvin!
@245:
No, Gabble. We’re talking about thge evil, tyrannical Labour scum, such as yourself, who betrayed this country and all that it holds dear, to save Gordon’s sorry arse.
HTH.
232. That unfortunately is how democracy works, has worked and will always work..
You need a majority in the House of Commons to pass legislation. The Unionists brought down Labour in the 1970s and propped up the Tories in the 1990s.
And your point was?
226 Martin Day goes mad - praises Clegg!
I don’t think Brown will go now. There were two recent opportunities. Post C+N and also over 42 days. There was no will in the Labour party to wield the knife then so I can’t see it happening a a later date when it will look all too desperate.
I also think Davis resignation has helped Brown. It has taken the wind out of Cameron’s sails and some of the focus off Brown. One of Brown’s many weaknesses is his inept political stunts. Davis resignation is a stunt and by not contesting the election, (hat tip to Nick Palmer), Brown is able to reflect that criticism back on The Tories. The weakness/avoiding elections charge is of course a danger but on balance I think Brown has actually made his first good strategic decision in a long time in not contesting H and H.
252
And they wondered why Innocent Abroad left. Stone the unbeliever. Nice use of the Royal We BTW.
“It has taken the wind out of Cameron’s sails”
Little evidence of that today!
232 Evidence?
A poll on ConHome said 90 odd[95?] of Tory candidates [who are picked by associations] were against 42.
Many Labour MPs admitted voting for it to save gordon. Admitted the bribes.
You know all this of course and have reached a point on PB where you are beyond rational debate.
258 Lots of odd Tory candidates.
235 Wintertons, Chichester, Spelman: all set up relatively complex mechanisms that worked to their benefit. All of them claimed “not to know the rules”.
better off out…….. browns comments on Europe were infantile
@256:
Time was, Labour was all in favour of violent regime change against tyrants.
Now that they’re the tyrants, they seem to have lost enthusiasm for that.
Anyway, no need to worry, Gabble can handle himself. That bitch bites back.
Did Cameron only ask 4 question?
240 — It was Tony Blair who admitted he couldn’t use a computer!
257. MM. As I was typing that I realised that PMQs must be happening. What I meant I suppose was that it has muddied the waters and confused the narrative.
I take it Cameron was on form today?
Spicer had the best line by far.
Overall I thought that:
Brown was moderately better than his awful usual
Cameron had good points but delivered the EU stuff poorly compared to his usual standard
Clegg somehow made some good points and remembered the Conservatives aren’t in power anymore
I am personally shocked by the PM’s refusal to merge the English and British navies.
Oh Lord not the Wintertons. It’s high time they headed for the exit.
@253:
I suppose the obvious conclusion, Mr Crosby, is that representative democracy is broken.
235 - They were doing something that always should have been against the rules, but wasn’t. It then became against the rules, and they still did it. Until they were called on it, they were still doing it. They have now stopped doing it, but haven’t paid back the money.
When it became against the weak and ineffectual rules, enforced by a weak and ineffectual internal committee, is a somewhat moot point - they acted perniciously for their own gain, essentially snaffling money from the taxpayer. Breaches of etiquette (such are the ‘Rules of the House’) are not what is causing uproar, but rather the arrogance and greed of people who have the temerity to describe themselves as ‘public servants’.
Now let’s have Marshal-Andrews campaign for Davis and see what Gabble and Rod make of that.
O/T - Can we charge Labour with theft?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7460134.stm
260 as did a number of Labour MPs. Not sure the MPs laxity with taxpayers money is particularly harmful in a party political sense, its more harming to the institution ( Gordon Brown claiming light bulbs and Sky subscriptions for his third residence while in receipt of a taxpayer funded home is just as equally bad). There is a curious match up in the outrageousness of the claims - Michael Ancram claiming for removal of moss in his garden versus Margaret Beckett claiming for bedding plants and a pergola.
Rather amused by the Sky headline:
Gordon Brown Answers MPs In Commons
Updated:12:34, Wednesday June 18, 2008
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1319413,00.html
They obviously were not aware of the detail of those *Answers*!
271 Agree - curious that when Boris campaigned on crime maps the Government pooh-poohed the idea, now they claim it for their own….
270. “Now let’s have Marshal-Andrews campaign for Davis and see what Gabble and Rod make of that.”
Utter hypocrisy, of course.
I would be very surprised if Bob Marshall-Andrews supported 28 days detention before charge - unlike Davis.
260 and harman couln’t remember taking out a mortgage etc. I think it’s a poltical rather than party culture. It does though beg the question - have any Lib Dem, Unionist or Nationalist MPs been found to have ‘inadvertently’ broken the rules?
I suspect many of the complaints are spurious on both sides. Anything that gives Dave an excuse to get the Wintertons kicked out of the party has to be good though.
@275:
Also, Gabble, repeating a lie often enough doesn’t make it true. Your bizarre belief in consensual reality is brilliantly solipsistic, but it doesn’t make for good politics.
277. Martin Coxall: “…repeating a lie often enough doesn’t make it true.”
What are you referring to?
268. But that’s something of an insoluble problem, isn’t it?
You either have
i) a dictator, elected or otherwise, who can do as he likes.
ii) a majoritarian system, which usually but not always gives a government the seats it needs to pass legislation, while allowing individual members to scupper its plans.
iii) a proportional system, where compromise and horse-trading are intrinsic to the passing any legislation.
Rank them in order of preference!
276 Yes I don’t think there’s any mileage for either side in the sleaze argument. The public sees all politicians of all parties as self-serving and unprincipled. There are similar examples of abuses in all parties.
255 - Stjohn - I think you’re broadly right. I said a few days ago I thought on balance the best thing Labour could do was not to contest H&H, and adopt a stance of amused bewilderment at Davis fighting the assorted minor parties. The downside is obvious, but quite limited, and I think Labour could plausibly claim that they don’t understand DD’s logic in stepping down to fight for re-election in a safe seat, they have other priorities etc etc.
I also agree this has cliped Cameron’s wings a little. Not in the way Gabble, Rod and Jonathan would like to think, but more in the sense that he is momentarily not in control of an agenda that he has been setting for the last eight months. Had Davis not resigned we could have seen a vintage performnce at PMQs today, with Cameron asking the same question (were there any deals?) six different ways, adducing further evidence each time (and on the website politicalbetting.com, the member for Broxtowe said…).
Winning the 42 day vote, DD resigning and the Irish no has bought Gordon a little breathing space, but each of these presents potential problems in the longer term, and together with the gathering economic clouds I think none of us should pretend that Gordon is on his way back.
Meanwhile I am sure we can all take heart from Rod’s new found desire to protect the public purse from the consequences of MPs’ vanity projects. I must have missed his vitriolic posts about the announcement yesterday that the budget for the Olympic stadium has been revised upwards again by a cool £29 million (£245 million in total). No doubt Rod has the statistical analysis to prove that the by-election in H&H will cost more than this, but I trust it will form part of his crusade against wasting taxpayers money soon enough
279. Only an idiot would have to think twice about putting (i) anywhere but last.
277. I have just looked up “Gabble” on the free online dictionary:
“Gabble” (gbl)
v. gab·bled, gab·bling, gab·bles
v.intr.
1. To speak rapidly or incoherently; jabber.
2. To make rapid, low muttering or quacking sounds, as a goose or duck.
Says it all really, doesn’t it?
Davis might have to sing for his seat…
http://www.hamhigh.co.uk/content/camden/hamhigh/news/story.aspx?brand=NorthLondon24&category=Newshamhigh&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newshamhigh&itemid=WeED18%20Jun%202008%2012%3A24%3A03%3A430
282. Socrates: “Only an idiot would have to think twice about putting (i) anywhere but last.”
Unless the dictator is Saddam?
279 Compromise and horse trading are intrinsic to any democratic system - in a majoritarian system they are concentrated within parties, and in a proportional system they tend to be between parties.
281. It has reigned in Cameron a bit, but the events have also provided even more ammo for him in the long term. The 42 days vote could prove to be a running sore for the government if public opinion turns against it. Europe, an issue with which people keep claiming the tories are divided over, has actually made splits within the labour party and some lib dems, leaving the tories looking more solid over the issue than ever. The economy is slowly slumping, giving Brown another headache.
241 - That’s an abysmal poll for McCain. As I said yesterday, I can just about see a way for McCain to win without Ohio as it is a very tight state, trending Democrat.
But it is much harder to see with Florida - not a very close state really (I know it was close in 2000 but has done well economically under Bush and trended Republican), bigger (so Ohio could be compensated for by winning Connecticut with Lieberman say and all Bush states but Florida is bigger than that), not a particularly natural state for Obama and if he takes it he has surely got lower hanging fruit in the bag.
Interesting to see if it is a rogue.
269 Morus I am not defending the appallingly silly and poorly adminstered rules about MPs allowances, and this case relates partly to the period of an even laxer set of rules than now.
And the Wintertons are not a couple I would want in the Tory parliamentary party.
But the fact is that they are declared by the Commissioner to have broken the rules in a non-culpable way.
We cannot then try to revise the rules to say they are corrupt or cheats or frauds.
You might think they are greedy, but then many MPs could be condemned for that once their records are examined. There are a Labour couple -Ann and Alan Keene - who are even clearer members of that category.
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1021775/Mr-Mrs-expenses-MP-couple-175-000-flat—house-just-30-minutes-away.html
These expenses and their lax administration and rules are appalling but to try to make party political capital out of it is counterproductive as it is a parliament wide issue, and needs to be treated seriously in that context.
Many of the Labour deputy leadership contenders problems with campaign donations come partly form that lax culture and partly from hubris.
The proposals for MPs’ pay to rise to 100k or more looks silly and greedy on its own, but if they were tied to a civil service grade and the allowance radically reformed and reduced, they might have a better argument and we end up with a cleaner system.
And that is what we need.
241 - In fact, three polls today from the same pollster - Obama leads by 4% in Florida, 6% in Ohio and 12% in Pennsylvania. McCain would really hope to win the first two and be competitive in the third.
New Quinnipiac Polls for Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania :
Florida
McCain 43% .. Obama 47%
Ohio
McCain 42% .. Obama 48%
Pennsylvania
McCain 40% .. Obama 52%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187
285. *Quack Quack*
198- Punter
British MPs have an average age of 53. French députés have an average age of 56. Not an enormous difference as far as I can tell.
It is a given that Brown really is a numpty, and this class of NuLab is pretty horrific. 99.9% of this site know it, and Gabble- the 0.01% voice of dissent knows it too.
There is just no point endlessly debating it. Can we not all discuss something far more interesting like Euro 98? I did try in vain to engage with our man from Paris, Chris, who has rather revealed himself to be a football expert. Is there no end to this man’s talents?
293-Chris- speak of the devil. You miraculously appear just as I was singing your praises!
295, perhaps you share a psychic bond? But be careful, you know what those Frenchies are like. If he turns up to the pb party he’ll be chatting up your wife before you can say “Zut alors!”
Witan, my point is that completely independent of the rules, the Wintertons are corrupt, cheats, and frauds.
The fact that an internal Commissioner has ruled them non-culpable on a technicality is not of great interest to me.
This is a non-partisan point - the Wintertons are perhaps not the worst offenders, nor the most flagrant, you make a good point about the Keens - but to act in such a duplicitous way around their housing arrangements makes them corrupt in my eyes. I cannot honestly believe that anyone truly thinks this was ‘accidental’ or due to ‘lax administration’.
They should be expelled from the House for besmirching its good name - but that would take a Speaker with itegrity, who wasn’t equally corrupt.
291 - Some interesting detail there too.
Firstly, they say Obama has big leads amongst women and too close to call amongst men. Case for a female McCain VP pick to combat this?
Secondly, independents oppose Clinton as VP pick by a margin of around 10%. I think this idea is dead anyway but this adds fuel to the funeral pyre.
@279:
The problem is, Rod, they all fail in the exact same way: they all have elected representatives. And we’re working here on the assumption that the nature and context of those drawn to elected office is an inherent part of the problem.
Any proposed solution has to be find a system of government that has no elected representatives.
294- Tyson
Well, thank you very much for this.
295- I didn’t do it on purpose!
It’s a kind of extreme masochism to talk about football today for a Frenchman…
But, I agree with you that our rock solid defence was very ggod in 1998. It was still the same in 2000 but we had found some strikers in the meantime (Henry, Anelka, Trézeguet).
Funnily though, we should have lost the 2000 final (our worst game of the competition) and won the 2006 world cup final (our best match of the competition).
In both cases, the lucky and defensive side won.
RE PMQs today: Brown can’t make up his mind about John Major, can he?!
He loves him… Major had NO referendum on Maastrict! Major didn’t stop ratification because of the Danes! Major did deals with the Unionists!
He loves him not… Major had 15% interest rates, Major had 3 million umemployed! etc. etc…
Actually, Brown has achieved what no Prime Minister ever has up to now.
He makes John Major look *GOOD*.
Say what you like about John Major, I’ve actually grown quite fond of the guy recently.
The National Lottery, GP Fundholding, GM Schools, Rail Privatisation, Northern Ireland; for a man with half the backbench parliamentary party against him and virtually no majority, say what you like about him and his policies - the boy did push through some pretty major totem pieces of policy. He achieved something.
What will Browns achievements of 2007-2010 be?
296- Alas, I won’t be able to come and chat up Lady Tyson… (and I’m married too!). One of my great regrets to leave for the US this summer is that I will have no opportunity of a PBC meeting in the next 3 years (except if we hold an exiled version in Washington DC).
The 42 days thing is all good news for Cameron. Now Brown has sucked the fight, he’s going to further reinforce the narrative of dither and and cowardice. Labour will also find themselves in all sorts of legal trouble over this grievous act, both in domestic courts and european courts.
On PMQ’s, Brown totally lost control when answering Cameron’s final question, didn’t he? He was in an absolute rage - Goodness only knows what his blood pressure was!
285. Not at all. But the options in Iraq didn’t include Rod’s (ii) and (iii) did they?
303, what was Cameron’s last question?
301 Major’ self trumpeted achievements include the DNA database and a massive expansion of CCTV.
I wonder if Davis’ regrets his actions as chief whip.
294 Agreed there is general agreement here (and it appears in the MSM, pubs, shops, on the street, taxi drivers) that Gordon Brown is a numpty, unsuited to office but the corpse of his career still has that unhealthy fascination of some denizen of the deep washed up on a beach, with us as the scientists trying to find the cause of his demise, while passers by poke it with sticks and pretend disgust while unable to avert their gaze.
did i hear that labour are not fielding a candidate against DD? the man’s actions are now totally vindicated. well down DD.
297 - What I find difficult about the story is the idea that people competent enough to set up a relatively complex trust arrangement were apparently not competent enough to understand that the arrangement was, in the words of the Standards Commissioner, “a clear breach of the rules”.
But I am not sure there is a massive moral difference anyway between them thinking they were milking the system and them believing they were defrauding it.
301. I might further add… on reflection.. the Conservative governments of 1979-1997 made only 4 major policy blunders; where otherwise IMO they governed very competently:
(1) The 1988 Budget
(2) ERM
(3) Community Charge
(4) Maastrict Treaty
Now, pretty major policy blunders, you might rightly point out, but one has to wonder..
What would have happened if these mistakes hadn’t been made?
307 And yet he comes top (least worst) in the Newsweek poll of world leaders. (see 133)
306, not sure he intended the Not Yet Guilty to be kept on it. And he certainly didn’t want to force expensive, unworkable and unnecessary biometric papers, sorry, ID cards, upon us all.
307. Davis was not chief whip!
Davis was minister for europe amungst other things but not chief whip!
Jon Cruddas today said he won’t stand in a Labour leadership election.
Q. ‘If there was a leadership election, would you stand (and no weasel words about lack of vacancy please!)? And if not, who would you back?’
Shaun Heathercott, Norwich
A. ‘No. And I honestly don’t know – it depends who stood and what they stood for! I am more interested in policy changes than playing political top trumps though.’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/you-ask-the-questions-jon-cruddas-labour-mp-for-dagenham-847895.html
Even if he was never going to be one of the favourites he would have brought a bit of spark and colour to a future contest. So basically any challenge to Brown will come from the ultra-Blairites or the ultra-Left. Neither of whom have enough MPs even if they implausibly colluded together. Brown’s safe to lose by himself. F*ck knows what we’ll if we’re in opposition with James Purnell. I’m a bit gutted.
298. A female VP won’t help McCain as long as he maintains his views on abortion and healthcare. Both stances are killers among women.
And I guarantee you Lieberman wouldn’t give him Conneticut.
311. A poll where Putin does well… not exactly something to sing about.
305. Cameron asked a series of questions on the Lisbon treeaty and Brown continuing to ratify after the the Irish NO. Brown hasn’t been too bad up until the final question (not that thats saying much of course) but on the last question Brown inexplicably blew up. He was visibly angry and started going into the dreadful screaming and bellowing. I didn’t see if he was shaking with rage, but he was obviously very, very emotional….
306. Do you honestly not see the difference in collecting the DNA of criminals and the DNA of innocent people?
310. CR - the biggest blunder of all was the shadowing of the Deutschemark, which led to monetary policy being loosened significantly at a time when the economy was growing well above potential and policy should have been tightened. This was what set the scene for the inflationary outburst of 1988-1990, the recession that followed, and ultimately the appalling blunder of ERM membership.
301 I think I can say, without fear of contradiction, that Gordon Brown is neck and neck with Edward Heath as the worst Prime Minister of my lifetime. Brown is neither popular, nor competent, nor politically adroit, nor articulate. He does not possess a single quality that makes him qualified to be Prime Minister. Jonathan Freedland is entirely correct in his assessment of the man.
My hope is that Labour will simply be swept off the board at the next election, like the Liberals in 1924, under Brown.
315 - Lieberman had sufficient clout to get himself re-elected as an independent in his own state so it probably would tip it in a fairly close election (but not guarantee it by any means).
I also think a female VP would help McCain amongst women - his abortion stance doesn’t help him of course but it is only decisive for a minority (albeit an important one).
310 - The problem with ERM wasn’t joining the party it was staying long after the beer had gone flat. The Community Charge debacle was a classic example of the theory/reality gap.
321 - Re-reading it, my comment there kind of implies Joe Lieberman is going in for a gender op! I can assure Joe fans that such a move is unlikely, but neither has he formally ruled it out.
297 morus I hope you have evidence for the names you call the Wintertons, because they are serious charges and I certainly have never seen any data which might support them.
Evidence of greed, stupidity and personal hubris lies all around, but not those criminal charges you lay.
310. Why was the Maastrict Treaty a policy blunder? It may have been a political blunder because the party was split asunder, but the actual deal that John Major negociated and then pushed through parliament was very good.
311 wasn’t much of choice though was there? Vladimir Putin, Gordon Brown, George Bush, Nicholas Sarkozy, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ban Ki Moon and Hu Jintao. I’m sure he’s pleased to be up there with the Russian & Chinese leaders.
309 - James - your last point is an interesting one, but I guess you have to acknowledge that the distinction between law and morality exists and is relevant. Businesses and individuals are free to order their affairs in such a way as to minimise their tax burden and (with the exception of the Guardian’s campaign against Tesco, and the occasional Private Eye article) largely escape public opprobrium. But the minute lawful tax avoidance becomes unlawful tax evasion, the full weight of the law is upon them (if it works them out!) and they are scorned by the masses.
Whether or not there is really a moral distinction between the two positions is largely academic - we have created a society which has tied morality very closely to legality. Indeed, around many areas of law, particularly criminal law, morality is all but replaced by a rigid and arbitrary set of rules.
How often does one hear the cry “it’s a free country” as defence to immoral behaviour? Or better still “it took place in private and no laws were broken”… a few MPs have reached for that chestnut in the past…
320. “I think I can say, without fear of contradiction, that Gordon Brown is neck and neck with Edward Heath as the worst Prime Minister of my lifetime. Brown is neither popular, nor competent, nor politically adroit, nor articulate. He does not possess a single quality that makes him qualified to be Prime Minister. Jonathan Freedland is entirely correct in his assessment of the man.
My hope is that Labour will simply be swept off the board at the next election, like the Liberals in 1924, under Brown.”
Wow.
Coming from such a sober and respected poster as yourself, Sean, that’s pretty strong stuff!
320. Whilst i support the tories, having no opposition in a country or only in dismal numbers (1997 & 2001) is not good for a country. Labour just need a good defeat, monopolies on power are not good either way. Two terms seems to be the maximum for either party.
I cannot see why Labour would want to win a 4th General election, they have nothing to offer and it would mean extinction in local government and a defeat at the next election after that, which ould make the Tories 1997 result look good!
322. What are you on about? Britain was in the ERM for less than two years.
324 - I am not accusing them of criminal behaviour, Witan - I call them frauds, cheats and corrupt as descriptive of the behaviour which they have admitted - moving a home into a trust to avoid taxation, paying £21k per annum in rent to that trust which was claimed back through expenses, in the full knowledge that the trust would be of benefit to their family, as well as the IHT avoidance.
To charge in expenses, when the costs incurred are actually funnelled back into your family is a deliberate attempt to cheat the system, and is (IMHO) fraudulent. To do so with public money is, by definition, corrupt.
I don’t think they have broken any laws, and the PCS doesn’t think they broke any rules, but I stand by my description of their (admitted) actions.
320. Brilliant post. Agree 100%. There are quite a lot of bona fide parallels with Heath.
319/322. With fixed exchange rates, shadowing a country with different economic and trade patterns to your own, you are always bound to come a cropper at some point.
It is question of if, not when.
ERM was wrong in principle.
311. You’re right - my apologies.
Brown is clearly a fantastic PM.
327 - I’m very uninterested in sleaze stories, but you miss the point. Minimising your tax bill legally is value-neutral. The Government must be paid that to which it is entitled, but there is no moral requirement to pay more than the minimum required.
The same is not true of claiming expenses. It is morally wrong to claim an expense when you have no honest belief that it is reasonable for someone else to pick up the tab, whether or not the rules indicate that you are formally entitled to do so.
There is a new thread
332. And Gordon can’t play the piano either!
Perhaps he should take-up the bagpipes; he might find solace in its mournful dirges ….
New Reuters/Zogby Poll :
McCain 42% .. Obama 47%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1518
321. But most of the votes for Lieberman weren’t positive ones, just Republicans lining up to hurt the Democrats. Besides, as other posters have mentioned, there is little evidence the VP pick makes much difference. Edwards was very popular in his home state but it didn’t help Kerry one bit. And if McCain loses industrial blue collar whites in Republican Ohio, he will be a long way from being competitive in Conneticut - even if Lieberman gave him a (massive) five point leap.
And do you really expect the Republican convention to vote for Lieberman as their VP choice anyway? He’s a down the line Democrat on everything but the war.
327 - Not sure I agree morality and legality are all that closely linked. Some effort is made to ensure plainly good things aren’t made illegal, but huge amounts of immoral behaviour is quite rightly legal (you can still dump somebody by text message for example).
The tax scenario is more complex. Much of the tax system is essentially amoral - an acceptance that it is not the government’s money but it has to get it from somewhere to pay for worthwhile things. “Loopholes” are not generally errors but deliberate exceptions to encourage/discourage certain behaviour. Indeed, it is all so complex that people are generally inclined to give the benefit of the doubt if an activity is lawful - in a way they probably wouldn’t if there was less complexity (using child labourers or allowing very dangerous conditions even where lawful in the country in question for example).
338 - I don’t think Lieberman will be asked as McCain needs a unifier and my betting reflects this. But he could easily get him through the Convention and he would have a good chance of taking the state in a close election. Although Lieberman got a lot of Republican votes in 2006, he still picked up half the total vote despite a Republican candidate being on the ticket (who got 10%). The comparison with Edwards is unfair as Edwards was only North Carolina senator for one term whereas Lieberman has been around for 20 years. And would Kerry have done better in the South with a New England or West coast liberal on the ticket? Probably not - Edwards may well have done the best he could with a fundamentally flawed Presidential candidate.
You are right VP candidates cannot be relied upon to carry their states. But it is hard to pick clear examples. Often the state is carried but only because you would expect it (Quayle carried Indiana twice for Bush Snr but that was no surprise, Lieberman carried Connecticut for Gore but generally a blue state). Some never really had a chance (Bentsen could never have taken Texas against Bush Snr, Kemp had no chance of taking New York for Dole, Ferraro was buried in a Reagan landslide). A good, “pure” example is probably Mondale delivering Minnesota twice for Carter - which he may have won anyway in 1976 but certainly not in 1980 for all the good it did him.