Is this what’s behind the Henley betting changes?
June 18th, 2008
What have the Lib Dems got up their sleeves?
Anybody who has been following the Henley betting during the day will know that there was a big move to the Lib Dems from mid-afternoon. As I write the best back price on Betfair is 5/1.
It looks as though the changes are linked to the above email which went out to Lib Dem members asking for their help for a special constituency-wide delivery tomorrow.
I have no idea what’s in the leaflet but I was aware that something might be happening - this was one of the reasons behind my piece yesterday suggesting that the effective 20/1 that was available then was good value.
This is all very interesting.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Just hype by the LD’s to get attention.
more leaflets for the bin. I hope it is not gutter politics.
re 1. Then bet the other way. Simple.
Maybe there is cunning reverse logic in this move. It could well be the fact that LD’s in numbers are failing to turn up. This means they need to try and get some LD’s into the seat to at least put up a challange.
Interesting that the tories have been so quite, it would seem to me that this is the LD’s trying to trick activists into delevering stuff!
Maybe it is the LD way of putting up the white flag?
Thunderbird thinks the message is junk. As indeed do PB’s best!
Most of the Postal Votes will by have been completed. So the LDs will have lost the chance to influence 25%+ of the actual voters.
It could be all over already.
I think we can all assume that if it was that interesting the story would have broken by now. It’s a smokescreen to deflect attention from the Lib Dems ludicrous approach to Lisbon and the shameful behaviour of their Peers in voting to ratify an non-treaty.
Good to see Andy Burnham gettingt slaughtered over his attempts to paint Davis as having a romantic liaison with Shami Chakrabarti.
Is there any depth to which this government will not sink? Maybe the ‘eye liner’ is actually the darkness of his soul seeping out.
7 - “I think we can all assume that if it was that interesting the story would have broken by now.”
Ever thought of a career as a newspaper editor?
7 Correct. Shameful behaviour. Still what did we expect…….
Whatever it is, it’s junk. Posters who think the Libdems have a chance here are much mistaken. they don’t.
The LD’s are distributing a leaflet and there’s a big swing to them in betting? I’m much more of a political observer than a betting expert, but this does seem a bit strange. The LD’s are trying to run a spirited, genuine campaign. Good for them; that’s how a good democracy works. But it hardly seems that this should be major cause for optimism in opportunistic betting circles.
8. Yes, heres Brogan’s take on it (as posted in the last thread)
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/06/burnham-smear-b.html
I wondered how long it would take before Labour and their henchmen tried to smear Davis’s relationship with the lovely Shami! Didn’t take long, did it?
Maybe the story is that the betting is showing the lib dems closing in, sort of a sneaky circular argument…..
Beware: Student Betting
£5 on Sweden at 2.84
£5 on Spain at 1.81
Wonder how much I’ll be going out with tonight.
12. You’ve obviously never seen a LibDem leasflet, S&S…
I think the Tories have started this rumour so that their price eases and then they pile in.
Right you are, Rod! It must be a practically religious experience to receive one. I know they have an almost mythical reputation in byelections, which must also play a part in the readiness to believe in the LD magic.
16. Can we have a little less condescension on this thread please.
17 - great I’ve got the Lib Dems at 10.5!
2.”more leaflets for the bin. I hope it is not gutter politics.”
I agree Marcia.
Are the Libdems fighting this by election on local issues or are they running a negative campaign against the Conservative candidate?
Will this type of campaign which the Libdems have been so successful with in the past work in a constituency like Henley?
The lack of comment about how the campaign is going down there in the media makes it harder for those further away to get any sort of picture of the theme/mood of the campaign.
I just think it is a load of cobblers to keep LD activists moral up.
They must know that an out of the area candidate is likely to have little chance of winning Henley: it has to be remembered that a popular local and national figure who was previously MP has been pictured with the prospective Tory MP. Think it is cobblers to say the LD bloke will win, there may even by a mild swing away from the LD and its a pannick measure by the LD’s to try and stop a tory landslide.
The LD’s have hadly been in the national news and i doubt the LD candidate *Mr Nobody* from Plymouth or wherever it is stands much chance at all.
19. “A little less condescension, a little more action, please”
The objectivity of some of the Conservative posters is mind boggling!
I stick with the assessment of a 4000-5000 Cons majority on a 55% poll.
re 22. You might be right Martin - but the party will be making calls for help in future by elections and if this is simply hype then people will be less inclined to believe them.
Personally I think Mike’s interpretation is far more plausible than the rest of you. Obviously that email is designed to get activists to come and campaign. But the last thing party HQ needs is for activists to stop believing its communications direct to its activists. It’s one thing to be a little cynical about one’s own party’s propaganda to the public - although even that’s rare among a party’s activists I find - but to mislead in direct communications with activists would really not be worth it.
It’s very unusual to launch a major piece of political ammunition / news in a leaflet. They must have thought about the story and considered the coverage it would get with a media launch compared to the impact from people reading it first in a leaflet.
Most likely they’ve organised a simultaneous media launch in whatever they think is the biggest media outlet that would cover the story. Just possibly, they think the story is big enough to get plenty of coverage anyway; or then again, despite being a big deal locally, minor enough not to get anything much nationally. What would be interesting, though, is if they’ve foregone some national coverage just to get people paying more attention to their leaflets. That would be good evidence that they really are fighting this one to win.
I thought the odds moved out just because as punters thought about it, they realised the odds were too short on the Tories. Markets often take a moment to settle down. But there are certainly a few activists who like a flutter, so it could be an early reaction to this news.
24. If the Tory candidate had some Skeleton it would probably have come out by now. I think the LD’s are obviously struggling and trying to get some footsoliers to Henley.
Look at it another way, if someone invited you to deliver a focus newspaper that discussed the attributes of cleaning the streets of dog shit, would you go and use your time if you thought it would make little or no difference?
Im thinking of standing on a, ‘Bring Back Henley Breweries’ ticket, a landslide win for me!!
25. Possibly, good on them for making it a contest - I am just suspicious!
OT: Euro 2008
The following has been brought to my attention:
June 22, 1986: Spain lose in the quarter-finals of the World Cup in a penalty shoot-out against Belgium
June 22, 1996: Spain lose in the quarter-finals of the European Championships in a penalty shoot-out against England
June 22, 2002: Spain lose in the quarter-finals of the World Cup in a penalty shoot-out against South Korea
June 22, 2008: Spain v Italy, European Championships quarter-finals…
that was dozy! I’ve just accidentally bet the wrong way and had to cancel it out at a loss! opps. Only a few pence though.
27 - Judging by some pictures, it is not entirely clear whether the Tory candidate has a skeleton. Sorry, that’s rather unfair - lovely cuddly fellow I am sure.
I suspect this will be a minor revelation; perhaps the candidate will have some unannounced connection with a building company in the constituency. Something the papers probably wouldn’t find interesting, but enough for the the LibDems to do some serious spinning in their leaflets. Maybe it’ll be serious enough to lower the motivation to vote of a few Tories.
Or perhaps it’ll be a reference to the candidate’s alleged past. Perhaps it’ll suggest that the Lib Dem candidate is the “Straight Choice”.
(Note: last paragraph a joke, I know nothing of the sexuality, etc. etc.)
I suspect Dave(s) is pretty much spot on; my guess is a Conservative majority of 3-6,000 on turnout of below 50%.
13.Slightly different take from Sam Coates at the Redbox.
Andy Burnham’s incautious remark
“At 6pm tonight the Culture Secretary was due to make a speech to the Blairite Progress think tank, saying David Davis should pick up the tab for the by-election which he forced today. But this call has rather got lost in the turmoil being caused by this section from his speech:
But in the culture secretary’s book, there seems to be only one thing worse than Davis’ ‘posturing’ and ‘flouncing’ and that’s those who have fallen for it: ‘To people who get seduced by Tory talk of how liberal they are, I find something very curious in the man who was, and still is I believe, an exponent of capital punishment having late-night, hand-wringing, heart-melting phone calls with Shami Chakrabarti.’
To DD and Jeremy Hunt, this is nothing short of a smear. Government clearly worried since they’ve put out a corrective “It was a light-hearted comment … nothing more should be read into it” comment. “They’re playing the man not the ball again, big mistake” says a Tory source. How big will this go?”
Its pretty obvious that Labour’s strategy is to run a negative campaign against David Davis from the sidelines.
Well the leaflet started to be distributed in the LD centre before 5.19pm.
If it is such a big story where is the beef? http://tinyurl.com/5m73u9
Looks like a magazine full of invented local links for their candidate. “I feel at Home in Henley, just like I did in Plymouth and…. etc etc….” “I live on a boat as it suits the mobile lifestyle of a carpet bagger”. “I once drove near Henley” “Can I stand in H&H after this?” “I will be a local voice for Henley or anyone who will have me”. “Only the Lib Dems can whine here”.
shurely shome mistakes?
35.
1 - everyone knows that LDs = LOL!
34- But if Labour believe that Davis is acting so shamefully, why not run their own candidate? It is as if they are admitting that they believe Davis’s constituents cannot be convinced to agree with them.
36.
Where do the LD’s source their paper from? I hope it’s recyclable as they are fairly strong on green issues.
Did read the email and first thought “When did Melissa Kite start writing for the Liberal Democrats?”
40 Ted
We should have a “Melissa Kite award” for misleading the reader.
33 I can’t see that this will be the case. Look at the leaflets Howell has been handing out
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2008/06/11/greenbelt1.jpg
Interesting story Mike. I wonder what it is too. How big a story it is though is another matter. Obviously people “in the know” have been using their knowledge to gain in the betting markets, but that does not mean they will not lay off before the story breaks.
You also wonder how much what ever they put in their leaflets will have any effect anyway.
Re 8, UKPaul “Good to see Andy Burnham gettingt slaughtered over his attempts to paint Davis as having a romantic liaison with Shami Chakrabarti.”
Got a link? What program?
Can you just imagine some poor LD activists hands quivering with excitement, they then pick up the newsletter and it is full of guff about the LD candidate having navigated the local rivers on holidays and being proud of sending posted cards home to his Plymouth neighbours believes he has come home………
38 - Yes the arguments are so pure that they cannot risk sullying those arguments by airing them in public!
I hope Vince Cable will lend his support to the LibDem candidate at Henley.
NuLabour must never be allowed to forget the Northern Rock fiasco.
Vince Cable welcomes prospect of Northern Rock legal action
Graeme Wearden guardian.co.uk, Wednesday June 18 2008
One of the most vehement critics of the former board of Northern Rock has welcomed the news that they face the prospect of legal action over the bank’s crisis last year.
Vince Cable, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman , said that the “belated” investigation was very welcome.
“Northern Rock chairman Ron Sandler must ensure no one from the previous administration is allowed to duck the responsibility they hold for the run on Northern Rock,” Cable said today.
Cable added that it was “essential” that the investigation included the bank’s auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers, who he said “must be held to account for their gross oversights”.
So Britain has ratified a Treaty that is defunct.
Yet another example of Brown believing he can just plough on irregardless of the reality.
42. So what? You could support new hoses but preseve the green belt - looks a bit desprate to me.
Martin, Test and other Tories - Lib Dem hype is one thing. But moving from 20/1 to 5/1 in the betting inside a day is unusual.
Mike is right - if you are so confident of a Tory victory put your money on it.
Re 25, Mike “re 22. You might be right Martin - but the party will be making calls for help in future by elections and if this is simply hype then people will be less inclined to believe them.”
Spot on, we will see tomorrow. Hopefully we will then know what was in the leaflet!
If it is a stunt then why pull it? Are they that desperate? At the end of the day we can’t comment that much until tomorrow.
46. Vince is good at his advocacy of government problems and identyfying the PM’s Jackal and Hyde characters!
I don’t think Vince will sway that many voters though!
Afraid for the LD’s Boris is worth a Hundred Vince’s in this seat, elsewhere Vince maybe more of a draw but the tories have all the aces.
Just by way of balance, I received this e-mail tonight:
“This is just a quick email to thank you for making the trip to South Oxfordshire to support the campaign to elect John Howell as Henley’s next MP. Your help has made a huge difference. The signs from across the constituency are encouraging with Liberal Democrat voters in particular pledging their support to the Conservatives.”
Pays your mney, takes your choice.
New ARG poll for New Hampshire :
McCain 39% .. Obama 51%
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
49. Fair enough, it just does not strike me as significant. In the betting market on this by-election how does the market work?
If for instance there is thin trading can the price change rapidly due to a few punters organising on it? If it incriminates anybody don’t awnser!
39 Maybe the special part of this new LD newsletter is that it is printed on special paper?
It may have a special Super strength able to hold 3 times the normal BS without losing its shape?
Also with a Special high rate of absorbing, designed for use in everyone’s small room recycling efforts?
Vote Lib Dem Go Brown!
54. Maybe i should buy mike’s book! Make a killing!!!!
34
What! DD and Chewbaccy, her of the Bambi eyes, and lashes longer than a wet Wednesday in Colwyn bay, cor what a dreadful thing to say the man should be horsewhipped.
57. John Major would never do it though because he is an honerable man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
52; wait, the Lib Dems are more likely to back the Conservative candidate than the Conservatives themselves…
greece 1 Spain 0
15 - Benny living on baked beans and toast for the rest of the week then?
No. 2 at the Bank of England is to stand down. To be replaced by
-
-
- (wait for it….)
-
-
-
Mr. Bean. Bonkers!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7462331.stm
58
i don’t know about you, but I would!!
Thats enough lowering the tone.
From the last thread: Re 116, Ted “114 An MP is elected by his constituency but he stands (generally) on a party ticket. His electors know, unless he specifies his differences as some do, that he will vote on party lines and indeed by voting for him endorse that. The gradual disapperance of independents in local Government indicates voters now prefer a party man to and independent voice.”
No, it indicates that a party machine has far more resource than an independent.
The Conservative party used to leave town and parish councils alone because we thought they were not party political so that independents could stand but then.. came the Liberal Democrats who thought they could gain traction by having a whole town council.
63.
54. A few hundred quid would have been enough. Lib Dems are 8/1 at ladbrokes and we’ve seen next to nothing today.
52 I
Certain leading LibDems have allegedly got form in trying to manipulate betting markets - for far more money than has changed hands here.
52 It sounds as if the Conservatives are on course for about 65% or more (holding all Conservative votes and gaining a majority of liberal democrat votes from last time). That will show that C and N was not a fluke
re 66. You have since so little today because your prices are pretty mean. Why should anybody bet with you at 8/1 when I was able to get the equivalent of 20/1 yesterday?
Cameron jumps on the freedom bandwagon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/citizen203.jpg
Seriously, how long will it be before see Davis in a woolfie outfit.
62 - Bean is replacing Lomax not Gieve. Also Charles Bean is a massive headache for the government as he is rumoured to have a few colourful views on the state of fiscal policy and it’s impact on Monetary policy etc.
I haven’t heard of an opinion poll for Henley (either published or suppressed). Is there likely to be one?
http://tinyurl.com/4e9rd9
a clue to what may be in that leaflet may be in this article
72. Absolutly the 3% budget deficiet means higher interest rates!
I have seen the leaflet and it *is* a shocker.
Basically what it says is ‘The Tories are decent people and now they have discovered civil liberties and riding to work on bicycles we have thrown in the towel and are backing to Tories to win here as well as in Haltemprice and Howden’
“Vote Conservative.”
73. The press/ Media are not really interested in Henley, it is not a symbolic seat like C & N.
Sorry had to laugh, from the last thread, Mike at 130: “re. Rod - so you don’t think that DD’s move is a good idea?”
Yes, I think Rod should come off the fence now and say whether he thinks David Davis is wrong.
70 Fair enough, Mike. I only mention it for information and we have been better than the exchanges at points and still are as we speak.
From the previous thread -
Labour Humanist: yes you are right that in principle you are right about Labour not wanting to take part when the terms of the election have been set by their opponent in advance.
But frankly this completely misses the point of why Labour should put up a candidate. Because the issue in this case is supposed to be LABOUR’s STRONGEST ISSUE. The ONLY issue on which they can claim (according the polls) clear public support.
If this was a normal by-election where the “key issue” hadn’t been determined in advance by their opponents then all political strategy textbooks would suggest that Labour should be trying to turn it into a single issue election - on anti-terrorism policy.
Davis hasn’t picked an issue which is in his favour. In fact he has picked the only issue where the result (if the public voted exclusively on it) could be in some doubt!
The fact that Davis has chosen the issue is irrelevant in this case - because it is the issue which Labour would have chosen if they could. What does it say about how Labour see their chances that they don’t even feel confident enough to fight an election on what would have been (if Davis hadn’t got in first) their issue of choice?
All over for Sweden
The yellows are losers just like LDs!
Re 74, Marcia, that accusation has been all over the blogosphere.
82 Howell is a duff candidate, if I was a Lib Dem I’d fancy my chances against him. Not exactly voter friendly. In a marginal he’d be toast.
81 But Sweden will surprise the Russians with a massive leaflet drop 10 minutes before the end and surge through to victory.
83. You mean he is not Heseltine or Boris.
Look at the bloke who took over from Blair in Sedgefield, hardly a household name.
Mike
If “Thunderbird thinks every Lib Dem email might be an email scam”, isn’t it about time you junked Thunderbird?!
O/T - This story beggars belief. Thank goodness our police would start looking for a missing person at their last known address!
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/2008/05/16/woman-sat-dead-in-front-of-tv-for-42-years-86908-20419070/
84 LOL
re 86. Thunderbird is by far the best email software about and I’ve completely stopped using Outlook - and yes I do like the banners telling me an email might be a scam.
85 You’re right he’s no Tarzan or Boris, but I think it’s worse than that. He looks like a vote loser to me. Should probably win despite it all. If it’s close it will be his fault. If they had a Timpson they’d be home and dry.
Re 83 Jonathan “82 Howell is a duff candidate, if I was a Lib Dem I’d fancy my chances against him. Not exactly voter friendly. In a marginal he’d be toast.”
I have not met him nor seen him on the doorstep so can’t comment. On what do you base your comment on?
86. It sounds like there is nothing wrong with the judgement of Thunderbird.
87. Some people do it and don’t even know they’re dead…
Spain 1 Greece 1
87. Bad that isn’t it! I would not want the electrity bill if it had been on for 42 years!
91 Years of experience!!
77 Martin - It may not be a symboll*ck byelection, but the media will jolly soon take notice if the Lib Dems win or nearly win! What I think you mean, is that the result of the Henley election doesn’t fit with a narrative that the media are desperately trying to write at present, ie that Gordon and NuLab are finished, and Cameron is on the up! I can assure you, symbolism of a deeper kind will be in action if there is an LD victory next Thursday, and Tories can’t take refuge in “Howell is a duff candidate” Imagine, Dunfermline was in Gordon’s backyard, Henley is in Dave’s backyard!
58 Martin, are you dyslexic or been on the sauce? Your typo’s are even worse than mine.. as for the spelling….
90. What you mean the bloke is an ordinary person who has lived and worked in Henley for years and represnted it on the local council - sounds like a sure vote loser to me.
If the Tory candidate had moved a hundred miles to contest the seat and could not even vote for himself that would have made him unbeatable i am sure!
98. dyslexic
Spot the difference
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2008/06/11/greenbelt1.jpg
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/39203000/jpg/_39203911_mellor203.jpg
Re 96, Jonathan “91 Years of experience!! ;-)”
Have you seen him on TV at all?
98 - Martin is actually dyslexic. Go easy on him. Unless he says Kinnock is Clegg.
Re 101, Jonathan “Spot the difference”
I am going to have you held for 42 days on suspicion of cruel and unusual punishment
97.
I hear what you say, I doubt the LD’s will achieve a result here.
Is the prominent LD leadership candidate Chris Huhne MP from fairly close to here?
103/100
ok compris.
I think Martin and TC are wrong.
I’ve heard from a Lib Dem associate that there is more to follow the planning consultancy story. I don’t know how explosive it is but he seemed pretty confident, and he was keeping it quiet until it would have sufficient impact.
But, if the Tories are as confident about Henley as they seem to be - both here and in the constituency - then that’s fine by me. Rennard’s crew like nothing better than sneaking in below the radar and then closing the deal in the week before polling day.
102 TV? What’s TV?
Should come with an 18 certificate this… Mellor’s love child…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWpPWHlchiM
103 - there was a time when he was also suspected of having Tourettes, but the drugs appear to be working pretty well these days
105 Martin “Is the prominent LD leadership candidate Chris Huhne MP from fairly close to here?”
Probably has one of his 7 houses there, he has one in most places.
105. No. Eastleigh is miles away.
74.Marcia, I was bemoaning the lack of national media coverage upthread, I never though to check nearer to home!
I loved this bit,”John Howell, the actual Conservative candidate, gets barely a look-in, just enough to tell us that he is a local man. Having lived in a nearby village for 20 years people have finally started referring to his house as “his” now. In rural Scotland it would take another two generations to blend in completely but perhaps serving on the county council has helped his cause in south Oxfordshire.”
110 Imagine the hoovering. Poor guy.
“Much of Henley-on-Thames looks inflation-proof. It really is the land of Pimms and punts.” Marcia’s link These spell Checkers really don’t work do they.
107. But the LD’s said they were going to win in C & N, then before that in ES. Although in ES they did manage to stay in second place.
John Howell
“Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local
Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local
Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local
Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local”
He does look like he’s off the League of Gentleman. Give me Davis, Timspson, damn it anyone, over this one dimensional journeyman.
107.”I’ve heard from a Lib Dem associate that there is more to follow the planning consultancy story. I don’t know how explosive it is but he seemed pretty confident, and he was keeping it quiet until it would have sufficient impact.”
Interesting, but is there a risk that going so negative on a local candidate while your own one comes from outside will backfire?
LDs =
117. Yes, of course there’s a risk.
It’s clear that Henley is a long shot for the Lib Dems (and would be at any time except in the period 1993-7) - so it’s worth taking risks.
The good news (for Lib Dems) is that Rennard et al have material to take a risk on.
The entire Henley by-election seems to be happening beneath the radar - probably because of all of the political firestorms recently. “By-election in safe Tory seat” really needs some kind of issue on which to hang a media narrative (”Tory splits”, “Tories under pressure in national polls”, “Carpetbagger candidate”, “Only story in town at the moment”). In the absence of such a news-peg, the event goes along largely unobserved by the nation, caught up in Big Brother, Euro 2008, cricket … even the politics-watchers are sated on a diet of DD, 42-day-detention-drama, “economy in turmoil”, house price crash, lost secret documents, EU referendum shock …
So it’s eminently possible that there could be an “under-the-radar” shock revelation by the Lib Dems that could bring the seat into competitive range. But bearing in mind that the Lib Dem candidate is unusually vulnerable (I’m still confused as to why they hauled in someone from so far away, bearing in mind their well-known attacks on other party candidates for being non-local) to attacks as someone parachuted in, and that it’s not uncommon for those of us on the “anorak” side of politics to under- or overestimate the effects of some “revelations”, I’d probably hesitate - now at least.
And as Mike and co. seem to have cleaned up on the biggest value out there right now (”he who dares …”), I’d now wait until more information breaks - to see if the Lib Dems chances are now over 20% or not. I guess my take is: if you’re going to take a punt on a rumour, go for it as early as possible if your going to go for it at all.
As an aside - it’s possibly a bit cheeky of me, but would tomorrow be a good time for me to pick up my book prize (from the Mayoral competition)
? Saves on posting costs.
Local to Henley is carpet bagger in Thame, and vice versa!
O/T for those yesterday who were stupid enough to make comments with relation to DD about the TA SAS not being real soldiers perhaps they will eat their words today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/frontline/2152674/First-British-woman-and-three-soldiers-killed-in-Afghanistan-bomb-blast.html
Shame we haven’t got £6,000 - the cost of a ComRes poll in Henley. Comres were the closest in C & N. Not as close as Jack though - I am now considered a political guru because I quoted Jack’s figures (as my own) as a prediction for C & N in the pub at 10pm on the night of the election!
2-1 Spain
124. Kas are you a Spain fan? Isn’t that match completely meaningless.
119.”It’s clear that Henley is a long shot for the Lib Dems (and would be at any time except in the period 1993-7) - so it’s worth taking risks.”
I just hope that the *in*famous Libdem campaign machine is not going a bridge to far with the risk taking in this seat because the morale of the campaign team took a bruising in C&N?
123. Jack W doesnt mind his ARSE being widely disseminated…
re 120 final para - Yes. Andy - I’ve put it in my bag.
125 but some people have money at stake!
128,
Thanks, Mike.
By the way - as I can easily get there early, would you (or Peter or Augustus) like a hand setting up?
129. I should have known!
But I’d never want to bet on such a match where nothing is at stake.
Just crawled over the grand profit now for Euro 2008. and hefty green balance on Italy to come. How people felt Sweden were better priced than the Russkies god knows
8. What?!
Had Aviator at 25-1 at ascot today.If I had had the courage of my convictions I would have done a forecast with my 2nd choice dockofthe bay, and would be smoking a large cigar in the Caribbean right now.
Tenby will have to do me for now.
Don’t often get my bets right!Lost heavily on Labour’s majority in 2005.
Will those people who applied the swings at the Crewe and Nantwich byelection do the same to extrapolate to a ‘new House of Commons’ when the Henley result is announced?!
135 only if its Con maj huge!
134. I hope you didn’t bet on Tamsin or indeed on Nick Ainger when the time arrives.
135. Don’t be silly Labour would have no seats at all.
Henley was good because it was a Labour Tory fight. The Liberal Democrats would get a gross ditortion particularly if the page 3 candidates end up out in front of the LD’s!
Labour’s refusal to field a candidate in Henley demonstrates their lack of belief in their position.
If 42 days was so popular, Labour would win and humiliate Davis.
But they dont.
Brown is a coward and Labour MPs are cowards.
re 135. If turnout is at or near the general election level then yes. The spectacular thing about C&N was the massive increase in real Tory votes on 2005. It wasn’t just the usual artificial swing numbers created by ultra low turnouts.
137
No I didn’t,thank goodness, just too busy polling day.
May have a punt on Nick though. Opposition not the nicest of Tories.Even Sir Eric fell out with them.
O/T - You can now donate to David Davis campaign by PayPal. I have just given a donation by this convenient method!
Christ what a dull thread!
142 sent a cheque on monday..
143:
CON GAIN EVERYTHING!
143. & 145.
Something to do with this maybe?
http://www.henleylibdems.org.uk/news/000115/john_howell_missing_on_key_oxfordshire_countryside_votes.html
Con is the word.
144 - I don’t like sending cheques in the post, especially when I really dont want them getting lost.
Everyone (Toryside) tells me that Henley is in the bag so this would have to be sensational to stop them.
Despite being a strapped on non Cameroonie /LD hater but who remains in awe of the LDs superb B/E operation ability in lazily defended seats (of both colours) I’m still genuinely struggling to see, short of kiddy fiddling, what on earth can bring them back into this race.
Word of advice to Henley Conservatices though ….. work until the final minute of the campaign and take nothing for granted.
These people are Talibanesque in their fervour and play to win in a way that most Conservative Associations completely fail to understand.
If our Candidate has a weakness they will find and exploit it until the final moment.
Oh dear! I’ve just seen a clip of today’s PMQs on BBC News at Ten. Exactly as someone reported here earlier today. Brown very rattled and practically losing it.
PBers often comment that PMQs are of little importance, except to us political anoraks. I think clips like this one, that make the main News, are likely to be influential.
It’s getting silly now…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1027539/David-Davis-condemns-Labours-smears-lies-civil-rights-chief.html
Only mendacious morons could read anything Burnham said as being a literal sexual aspersion…
So much for defending our freedom. These precious muppets can’t even take normal political knockabout in good part….
Chakrabati “distraught”. A major mascara disaster looms….
142/144- would you rather not donate your money to medicine sans frontieres, maybe getting cleaner water to south sahara Arfica you muppets?
147. Pretty desperate if it refers to this:
United councils call for eco-town consultation
Published on: 17 Jun 2008
http://www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/wps/portal/publicsite/kcxml/04_Sj9SPykssy0xPLMnMz0vM0Y_QjzKL94039HcGSZnFO8WHOepHogtZIoR8PfJzU_WD9L31A_QLckMjyh0dFQHQ1tW-/delta/base64xml/L0lDU0lKQ1RPN29na21BISEvb0VvUUFBSVFnakZJQUFRaENFSVFqR0VBLzRKRmlDbzBlaDFpY29uUVZHaGQtc0lRIS83X0xfOUNSLzI0?WCM_PORTLET=PC_7_L_9CR_WCM&WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=http://apps.oxfordshire.gov.uk/wps/wcm/connect/Internet/Press+releases/Press+Releases+archive/2008/June/PR+-+United+councils+call+for+eco-town+public+consultation
155. Sorry about the length of it!
154 - It isn’t necessarily an either or choice.
STOP PRESS it is not about missing 2 votes
Powerful new message hits Henley…..
Its a 2 horse race!
158.
That’s good they have to trick there own activists to deliver a load of bull!!!
If it really is about missing two votes, then surely that is terrible marketing of the LD candidate? It is reinforcing the local links of the tory!
I do love Dickie Davis, but why oh why would you give hard earned readies to his campaign which was done and dusted the moment he opened his gob? Why?
140. I doubt if Henley has as high a turnout as C&N. Turnout is a function of publicity and Henley is not getting the publicity that C&N did. Apart from the H&H diversion, there appears to be no constituency opinion poll and I doubt if there will be a Newsnight debate either.
154. No. Why?
161- was a reply to 157. Sorry
Newsnight reports that publi sectot pay deals will need to be “renogotiated” as the bloke at pmqs said today “why do all Labour govts end in strikes?”
152. the funniest part about that is this -
‘It was a lighthearted comment about the former Shadow Home Secretary’s political journey - by-election political knockabout and nothing else,’ said a [Labour] spokesman.
But Labour aren’t even standing a candidate…
Michael Crick is not amusing this evening! Maybe the shock of higher energy prices has jolted his blind allegiance to Labour!
Re 152, Rod “It’s getting silly now…”
Have you not read the Guardian or Mirror?
163- OK- so let get this straight. Donate money to save lives in Africa by giving the people there access to clean. There by the grace of god go any of us- just a freak of birth.
OR- put valuable readies into some silly by election contest with a known outcome in Yorkshire.
You have priorities just about right. Not. Muppet.
165. Because the public look at Labour ministers, see that pitiful mediocrities can earn huge sums of cash while f***ing things up, and quite naturally think ‘why not me, too?’
169- clean water
165. Because the public look at Labour ministers, see that pitiful mediocrities can earn huge sums of cash while f***ing things up, and quite naturally think ‘why not me, too?’
The funniest thing i have ever seen Crick do was accost Jefferey Archer in a place that looked like park gates. Archer was ranting away, sounded really quite nasty actually! Very funny though! A sort of ‘Simon Heffer, shitting bricks’ quality to it!!!
169. If you care so much about these poor unfortunates in Africa (which of course you don’t), why don’t you sell a couple of houses from your portfolio and make a real difference, rather than whingeing about what other people might do with trifling sums of their own money?
Why is Malcolm Wicks the Energy Minister? I do not rate him at all - absolultly crap on newsnight. Brown should sack Wicks and give Nick ago before Labour goes back to political year zero in 2010!
169 - Lets do away with elections all together and give all the money to africa… (!)
Re 169, Tyson “OR- put valuable readies into some silly by election contest with a known outcome in Yorkshire.”
Well, it is not the local campaign we are worried about it is the national impact.
Wicks: try loft insulation..
173. Malthuis never calculated on international development aid, why should we keep a disease ridden continent going?
169: We’ve given the Third World billions of pounds and the same problems persist because of endemic corruption and waste.
173- I just do not get it why people would donate to silly by election campaigns?
Please you Tory fruitcakes here (and Labour and Liberal ones)- do not waste your cash on silly by elections, use your cash properly please donate to:
http://www.msf.org.uk/
169 - Freedom is about choice, we have the freedom to donate our hard earned cash to whichever cause we feel is deserving.
Osbourne looking tired and emotional on Newsnight……
Seriously though, countries in the third world seem at times to be more concerned about fighting over a piece of sandy desert rather than caring for it’s people. If they converted swords into ploughshares fair enough but if they cannot help themselves, why bother?
180 - The gratuitous abuse is unnecessary and in my case counterproductive as I have just upped my donation to spite you.
178- there by the grace of god and the chance of birth are any of us.
Future generations will look on your comments which show no humanity whatsoever with utter contempt.
182. I thought that to start with - I remember Ken Clarke doing one of those dinners on newsnight and he had a red glow and grin on his face!
Think he slurred some of his words as well!
185. I don’t care!
Just for the record i used to have a monthly donation to the British Red Cross when i was in work.
185 - That was you at 169!
147 Had to laugh at the bar chart in the top right corner of the Henley LibDem website. They just can’t help themselves, can they - making the LibDems wording stand higher than the Conservatives column. It’s risible!
185. Oh right yes, can’t we just imagine millions of people in the future poring over old PB.com threads, shaking their heads in disbelief at the terrible comments of Martin Day.
Go to bed you ridiculous, pompous old trot.
185. They may not get the chance to look back, unless we do some pruning of the societal thicket NOW…..
191 - Will you volunteer to be first?
6 According to the RO’s blog Postal Votes only went to the Royal Mail for deliver on Monday night. So most have probably not been cast yet, and they are only about 10% of the oters in Henley.
35 The current leaflet is a colour magazine. The leaflet the email refers to will start going out tomorrow evening.
46 Vince did a public meeting with Kearney & Clegg on Tuesday.
And it is not about him missing two votes on the eco-town (although that is pretty poor for a supposed ‘defender of the Green Belt’)
New Rasmussen Poll for Ohio :
McCain 44% .. Obama 43%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election
193. What is it - he once bought a dirty magazine from the local newsagent two decades ago?
Re 185 Tyson “Future generations will look on your comments which show no humanity whatsoever with utter contempt.”
Doubt it.
I didn’t realise you were religious!
LD price for Henley now over 8-1 (compared to 5-1 per article when thread was started).
193. If it is such an important issue the LD’s are treating the people of Henley with contempt and witholding information for political purposes.
Maybe I donate to Davis (among other causes) because I don’t want Britain to end up a corrupt dictatorship of the sort unfortunately found all too often in Africa.
190- I think future generations will view the 60% of the world living on less than a dollar a day without access to clean water in contrast to silly muppets who donate to a needless by election with utter disbelief.
It is unbelievable how decadent human beings have become!
185. Future generations will probably thank me for putting there interests over people who squander help and will not do things to improve lives in their own country.
200. Why don’t we put a huge series of solar powered desalinisation plants in africa then? Because the states there don’t want help - F*ck em! That’s what i say! The intellegent ones migrate!
Re 200, Tyson “190- I think future generations will view the 60% of the world living on less than a dollar a day without access to clean water in contrast to silly muppets who donate to a needless by election with utter disbelief.”
I don’t wish to sound difficult, but why do you think Africa’s problems can be solved by charity/aid?
196- Benedict- I cannot believe it is right that a human being born to starvation, disease, illiteracy and poverty is born in a world where people fly on private jets to meet birthday engagements. It will not last.
200. I help people here in Britain, old people over the road - even paid for a taxi for this bloke to be taken to hosipital once who was shit faced! He had his stomach pumped and they said they would give him an enema as well. Not sure why the male nurse said he needsed to get some vasaline first though!
200: Perhaps we should look at why some parts of the world are successful and others aren’t instead of dumping money on failing states.
204. Your not just talking about the leaders of these countries either
Re 204, Tyson “196- Benedict- I cannot believe it is right that a human being born to starvation, disease, illiteracy and poverty is born in a world where people fly on private jets to meet birthday engagements.”
Tell me, how much of your wealth do you spend on say, fine wine and how much on aid?
“It will not last.”
I suspect that later part will, with luck and some brains the former parts will not.
Any answer to my query at 203?
203- Benedict- it will not. It will be solved by human progress that quickly realises that we are all equal, we all have different talents, and that we have all have the right to the same quality of life. Wherever we live. This is a transition period.
It’s entirely within keeping for the Lib Dems to sink further into the gutter in the last week of the campaign and launch a character assassination of Tory candidate.
‘cept it don’t always work…..
209 - I think you need to work on your logic somewhat as you have said that we are equal and different within the space of 4 words.
194 - Some welcome good news for McCain! Probably all we are going to get for the next few months :p
211. Equal does not mean that people are Identical. It means that people are of identical worth.
203. Aid is only one part of what we need to do, but it is an important part.
208. Hypocrisy is better than apathy.
Re 209, Tyson “203- Benedict- it will not.”
I see. So giving money to Africa will not solve Africa’s problems, but you entreat us all to do so and to not donate to an election campaign?
Priceless.
“It will be solved by human progress that quickly realises that we are all equal, we all have different talents, and that we have all have the right to the same quality of life. Wherever we live.”
That sounds like socialism. It has been tried and failed.
“This is a transition period.”
Err, no it isn’t.
Terrible economic news this evening. Cost of living going up. 40% increase in energy bills on the way by winter. The government warning the people must not be given wage hikes, which means, effectively, for the first time in a decade and a half people’s living standards are going to go into decline.
Theres a whole generation of people (the twentysomethings) that belong to the “me” generation, that will never have experianced anything like it. How will they cope?
Grim, grim, grim.
212 Rob. Indeed. Same lead as May but McCain’s +7 April lead has vanished.
Re some of the posts in reply to Tyson…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2005/10/06/do0601.xml&sSheet=/opinion/2005/10/06/ixopinion.html
215. “That sounds like socialism. It has been tried and failed.” Explain?
Are you referring to the Soviet Union, Sweden or France? The NHS, the Stasi or the New Deal? Socialism comes in many forms.
Re 214, G, “203. Aid is only one part of what we need to do, but it is an important part.”
Well, aid is important but am somewhat dubious if its the amount of money that is important. I suspect it is how it is spent. Quite a lot of aid is highly counter productive. What is needed is for Africa to trade its way out of poverty and this is best aided by them removing intra African trade tarrifes.
“208. Hypocrisy is better than apathy.”
Ah, I see. He can spend £50 on his own frivolities but should someone decide to forgo a bit of their own and donate to a non Tyson approved cause thats fine by you?
Cool!
Defection Alert! Defection Alert!
Liberal Democrat defects:
Liberal Democrat Martin Day has defected to ‘no party’ on Anthony Wells Election Guide!
219 - Socialism indeed comes in multiple forms but they are just the many facets of failure.
217 - Jack, do you follow fivethirtyeight.com? Not too keen on the obvious pro Barak bias in some of the commentators, but an excellent resource of data available! I just wish they updated quicker (i.e. instantly!!)
210 - I don’t think any Lib Dem is going to take lessons from Tories about gutter politics after Cheadle, but clearly someone very senior in the Lib Dems reckons they have an issue of substance that will damage the Tory campaign.
220. That was Tyson not me. I contribute to political parties and it is very important for democracy that grass roots do contribute.
It was the idea that if anyone has ever bough luxuries then they shouldn’t give money in aid that i disagreed with.
Re 219, G “Are you referring to the Soviet Union, Sweden or France? The NHS, the Stasi or the New Deal? Socialism comes in many forms.”
Well, in part you can compare all three. The latter two would regard them selves more as “social democrat” types than out and out socialist sentiment Tyson was expressing. There are after all some very well healed people in both Sweden and France.
Not sure why no-one has reported this on here yet:
I’ve just switched on this morning here in Oz and one of the news items on the radio was a report on 3 new state polls in the US by Quinnipiac Uni which give good leads to Obama in Ohio, Penn and…. Florida! See RCP for details. http://www.reaclclearpolitics.com
Obama’s price has tightened a tad on Betfair - it was 1.62 for days, now only a fiver available at 1.61.
Re 225, G, ” That was Tyson not me. I contribute to political parties and it is very important for democracy that grass roots do contribute.”
Well we agree there!
“It was the idea that if anyone has ever bough luxuries then they shouldn’t give money in aid that i disagreed with.”
Never said that either, the point Tyson was making is that anyone one who donates to David Davis campaign is some kind of sicko they should send it to Africa instead. At this point the question comes up: What do you spend your money on?
226. Social Democracy is a moderate type of socialism. It’s still socialism.
And in the words of one Telegraph journalist “we’re all social democrats now”.
Interestingly enough do people become more social demoratic as nations become wealther or more capitalistic and individualistically orientated?
223 Rob. Yes a must read, it’s a very good resource and you can take or leave the comment section as required. Over the primary season Nate has earned a very good reputaion for informed analysis and prediction.
Pollster.com (right side bar) is also a very useful resource and a daily read for the committee !!
231 - yay, more graphs!
Cheers for the link, will add to the bookmarks. And cheers for the relentless heads up about all the new polls, very useful.
232 Rob. Your welcome.
Good Nite All …………..
ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Pollster.com is excellent Jack. Is it not possible for WIND (or is it ARSE I get confused) to have a site like this that spends the time aggregating and averaging polls - and then making line graphs? We all love a good line graph
234 - There is already a big line across his ARSE, no need to add more.
ENEMA GRAPH PAINTING!
I hope Jack’s doesn’t look as bad as this, Rob - this http://www.pollster.com/presbushapproval.php is a line graph to impart fear into all politicians - all political careers end in failure - but some really do end in failure.
Just watched PMQs.
Brown says there are no plans “to merge the English, British and French navies”.
The ‘English Navy’? Is there such a thing?
Will Hansard do another Labour tidying-up exercise?
Davis likened to to gay “marriage” vicars - equally unfavourably…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1027571/Gay-priests-marrying-smirking-Prince-insidious-cult-self.html
238. Brown also said that the tories wanted to eliminate DNA and even more bizzaily that Labour had changed DNA!
Brown is as verbally challanged as Prescott it would seem!
Maybe we should have a whip round and send DD a watch saying “Don’t let the buggers get you down!”
239. Maybe we should have a whip round and send DD a watch saying “Don’t let the buggers get you down!”
229,226 Hi,Benedict White:hope you’re well.
I had an interesting pub conversation 3-4 weeks ago with an accountant in his early 50s;he’s a very moderate,gentle ‘One Nation Tory’.
To cut to the chase,he concluded ‘Patrick,you’re a social democrat,not a socialist’ We ended by chatting about whether,in the likely evnt event of a Cameron victory,post-1951 political history will repeat itself in that:
The Tories have re-takne national power,but still stand for/implement 80-90% of the previous Labour govt’s programme-in other words,possibly a new era of ‘Butskellism’? Food for thought!
169. If the good people of sub saharan africa could learn to hold clean and fair elections like the one being held in Yorkshire, they might not need us to provide them with clean water.
240. Martin. This is simply an extension of the NuLabour policy first espoused by John Prescott in 2002. “We will reduce and probably eliminate the homeless by 2008.”
243. I think we are already there - Blair roughly did what Major did but with more style. Brown does major the same…………… even to the extent there poling numbers are identical!
I think Brown equalled Major in being the most unpopular modern PM!
Oh dear! As Major would say!
245.
They cannot even string a sentence together, nevermind a government!
Gaz. Have you ever been to Africa?
246. Major only became unpopular after a massive and cataclysmic failure of economic policy, the resulted in mass unemployment, double digit interest rates and repossessions like never seen before.
Brown has reached such levels of dislike for nothing really in particular. He kind of screwed up the NR thing, but to be honest there wasnt much he could do, he dithered a bit about an election, and screwed up a tax policy, and cant manage the current account.
If Brown is looked on like this right now, what will happen if we really do go into a recession, and things start to get unpleasant?
We are a long way from the economic situation of 1992…
240 Martin D it is a sign of extreme stress. But it is getting worse and the illogicality of what he says is stark and unusual. This sort of verbal stress is usually bowlderised stuff where Royal Navy might become Royal Gravy.
But to talk about an English navy as distinct to a British navy suggest he is going down to personality basement of his Scottish origins shown clearly in his early writing and his ‘claim of right’ for Scotland.
248. Yes. I have spent time in Lagos, visited Abuja, and a good chunk of my in-laws live there.
246,Hi Martin,hope you’re well. Through work commitments I am unbale to attend tomorrow’s jamboree in London-hey ho!
I am probably being brutally honest with myself by publicly admitting demographics of the large cities,former industrail bases,will NOT allow the Labour Party to fall below the 1983/1987 tallies (and Alan Whitehead and John Denham will hold Southampton Test and Itchen,only 30 miles from me in dear-old-Bournemouth:lol: )
On a more serious note,geo-political events on a global scale (oil,food prices) have not reached the maximimum of their potency;I hope and pray that,at worst,we slow to very slow growth,’with light at the end of the tunnel’.
Todays inflation forecasts make it 55-45 the next move in rates will be up-in all candour,if-na dit is still quite an ‘If?’ DC reaches Downing Street,then oh boy,will he have a potentially poisoned chalice on his hands (In other words,the economy has slowed,for the first time in 13 years the Tories reach national govt,things are not nice,and it would noly take one Blairite Leader of HM Opposition to put him out of his misery one election later..)
Gaz “We are a long way from the economic situation of 1992…”
The plummeting pound, the poor use of reserves, government over spending, poor productivity, rapidly rising inflation expectations…….
Perhaps you may be right. It is worse than the ERM departure which lead to an economic revival and more like a build up to the Winter of Discontent II with Brown coming back from Brussels in October to ask what crisis are we all talking about.
Re 243, Patrick, “The Tories have re-takne national power,but still stand for/implement 80-90% of the previous Labour govt’s programme-in other words,possibly a new era of ‘Butskellism’? Food for thought!”
Well it is food for thought but I doubt it. The next Conservative government is going to be quite radical in achieving its ends.
It aims to reduce taxes and poverty by helping people to help themselves gain wealth rather than paying people for not having any.
Re 245, Stjohn “240. Martin. This is simply an extension of the NuLabour policy first espoused by John Prescott in 2002. “We will reduce and probably eliminate the homeless by 2008.””
One wonders if they might hire Robert Mugabe as a consultant to help them out
re 246, Martin “I think Brown equalled Major in being the most unpopular modern PM!
Oh dear! As Major would say!”
But alas he has not equaled Major in being the most popular PM! (in terms of absolute popular vote in 1992)
154.”142/144- would you rather not donate your money to medicine sans frontieres, maybe getting cleaner water to south sahara Arfica you muppets?”
Will you be donating your winnings on the footie to charity?
Thanks for spurring me on to get my donation on its way to DD’s campaign. A lot of us do donate money to charity on a regular basis, and we don’t need lectures from you about how we spend our cash!
The charity you mention is my favourite, but another worth while one is Mary’s Meals.
254 Tax Credits (a much-hated phrase crossing political boundarires I suspect ) have taken under their umbrealla many other benfits,the old ‘ therapeyitc earnings’ being one ie a person registered diabled could work 20 hours under the previous Conseravtive govt,and only lose £10 from their benefit.Other benfits,from the complexity of family/others spring to mind-to cut short,a pruinign of some waste,and weeidng out the ‘players of the system’ would gain my apporval.BUT-and it is a big ‘BUT’-myself,I have encountered huge mental health probalems (depression,neuroses),and a wild axe-swinging exercise at this issue would
(a)Cause public disdain
(b)Reap electoral punishment at a future election
I don’t think Major was ever really personally unpopular, unlike Thatcher, who I’m sure certain sections of the populace would have torn limb from limb given the chance. [and I'm just talking about some of the women in my own family....:) ]
Major’s fundamental decency and consensual style shone through in a nerdy kind of way, and his achievements were quite substantial. Probably because the man in the street could imagine himself in JM’s shoes. He had a lot in common with Jim Callaghan in that respect. [neither went to university]
Brown comes across more as the mad professor; an idiot savant - austere, fusty, remote, awkward, secretive, unknown…
We’ve never really had a PM like him for any period of time. The closest analogies are probably Douglas-Home and Bonar Law, co-incidentally also of Scottish extraction, and in the also-rans of PMs…
re 258, Patrick “‘BUT’-myself,I have encountered huge mental health probalems (depression,neuroses),and a wild axe-swinging exercise at this issue would
(a)Cause public disdain
(b)Reap electoral punishment at a future election”
Granted on all counts which is why such things will be brought in over a period of time, with care and thought.
Lets put it this way. There are three ways of cutting disability benefit spend.
1. Cut the amount you give each claimant.
2. Force people off it.
3. Help people off it.
The first one is political suicide, the middle one less so and the third one is the better option.
There are many areas where a subtle approach will pay dividends in the medium and long terms. It is about a new way of thinking.
Re 259, Rod “Brown comes across more as the mad professor; an idiot savant - austere, fusty, remote, awkward, secretive, unknown…”
I hear he speaks highly of you also
Are you at tomorrows party?
And have you come off the fence about David Davis yet
251. Then you will know that 1) Africa is the world’s second largest and second most populous continent - and as such there are a whole array of states, political systems and stages of development, as there are in Europe, Asia, South America and even North America.
And 2) that failures in any country in the world are, and will always be down to a complex mixture of internal, external, personal and historical forces.
Though I am no fan of Thabo Mbeki, elections in South Africa have generally been fair and systematic, as are those in Namibia, for example. Africa is a large and complex place that deserves better than your trite comment.
260 Point taken-I have NO doubt there are several 000s who are swinging the lead,and there are light,non-stressful jobs (litter-picking) do be done.FWIW,as someone who has followed pUK politics since c age 14 (1985),I anticipate DC will be the most ‘One-nation’ Tory PM probably since Harold Macmillan-even I say to myself ‘It wouldnot be the end of the universe if the Tories won next time’-I’m not commentingabout the tine after that though
262. South Africa is going the way of Zimbabwe. And yes Africa is a continent with wide ranging systems. However they have things in common, corruption is rife and throughout all african societies, where democracy is practised, it is largely a sham. Those countries rich in natural resources are pillaged by the ruling classes. A country like Nigeria should be a prosperous booming economy and society, but like the rest of africa, it is a decaying crap hole. All those high hopes post decolonisation, those lofty principles, all down the plughole as one despotic kleptomaniac military dictator follows another.
Your argument about stages of development are, to be honest a complete crock of crap.
The true state is, some African states have already failed, some are on the verge of failure, and the rest are likely to fail within the next decade or two.
261. It’s a long ways from home….
Anyhow, all the action is ‘oop north, C&N, H&H, so I look forward to the next PB party looking beyond its London-navel and breathing in the same radical air as Gladstone, Derby, Peel, Wilson, Lloyd-George, Asquith, Wilberforce, etc…
Completely off topic but a couple of articles on Labourhome caught my eye. I find them interesting because the Labour party has benefited from a strong Catholic vote in their traditional heartlands in Scotland, and also in places like Liverpool. Now that we have an alternative centre left party in the SNP, this could be a danger for the Labour party in those area’s.
Labour MP decries Labour anti Catholicism
Is the Labour Party anti Catholic?
Over the last 10 years I have noticed that the Roman Catholic church has become increasingly alienated from the Labour party, and has certainly begun to see the government as a threat to the Church’s very core beliefs.
266.Try again.
Is the Labour Party anti Catholic?
Re 263, Patrick, Fair enough.
On the swinging th lead issue, frankly for some, being on benefits pays better.
Why take a pay cut to work?
Re 264, GAZ “The true state is, some African states have already failed, some are on the verge of failure, and the rest are likely to fail within the next decade or two.”
Its nice to meet and optimist!
Re 265, Rod, “It’s a long ways from home….”
shame.
268. Just make it clear, i am not happy that this is the case, i just see no future for the African continent, well, not the sub Saharan section. South Africa was hopefully going to be the beacon of hope, but it just represents reversion back to the African average mean.
Re 269, Gaz, “South Africa was hopefully going to be the beacon of hope, but it just represents reversion back to the African average mean.”
I am not so sure.
Jacob Zuma may be as corrupt as they come be he like the unions etc has been hard line on Zimbabwe.
South Africa is at some sort of cross roads. Which way it turns we shall see.
270. South Africa is about twelve years behind Zimbabwe.
266. Yes, this has been going on for a while. A notable casualty was Peter Garrett, grandson of a Labour MP, and spokesman for SPUC, who left the party about 10 years ago. Had he not done so, it’s not fantasy to say he might have made the Cabinet by now….
There was an undercurrent of this ‘anti-Catholicism’ [I'd prefer to call it illogicality, or anti-religious sentiment] here not so long ago, when there were calls for Catholics to abstain or resign instead of voting against the Embryology bill/in favour of the Abortion reduction bill. As if there were no athiests/agnostics or people of faith generally who might share the same misgivings….
But it’s not all one way. Interestingly, my own Labour MP quietly converted to Rome a couple of years ago…
Re 270, Gaz, “270. South Africa is about twelve years behind Zimbabwe.”
I see, has the ANC already murdered many of its political opponents then?
273. it will come, as sure as night follows day.
272.There has been a steady flow of conversions to the Catholic faith in recent times, Tony Blair and Anne Widdicombe are two well known politicians who have done so.
My former local parish priest was previously a Minister in the Anglican church (I think).
Re 274, Gaz, “273. it will come, as sure as night follows day.”
The problem with your hypothesis is that Zanu PF did that in the 1980’s and you said South Africa was but 12 years behind.
Loathing of elections has led British democracy to atrophy“Unchecked by any formal constitution, power drifts to the centre, where the will of the people is treated with utter disdain”
“Have you noticed how the political establishment hates elections? It regards them as vulgar, foreign, exhibitionist and unpredictable. To those in power they are mere concessions to mob rule. If electors did not insist on them, elections would have been abolished long ago as Victorian gimmicks to appease proletarian sentiment.
There is no other explanation for Westminster’s reaction to Ireland’s weekend vote on the Lisbon treaty and to David Davis’s resignation over 42-day-detention. Nor is there any other explanation for the welcome that will be given to Hazel Blears’s forthcoming local government white paper. This will, it is rumoured, reduce the 95% of elections still held in Britain (local ones) to largely consultative status, to clear the ground for Gordon Brown’s Putin-style appointed regional government.”
I particular like this bit.
“Davis’s decision to stand down as an MP and fight a byelection over 42-day detention produced similar revulsion in Westminster. All political ambitions are mixed, but Davis was clearly shocked by the devious way in which the Labour government trampled on civil liberties last week. He decided to express that shock in the most public way available to a politician, to invite electors to debate with him and vote him back to office.
Westminster politicians and lobby reporters derided Davis as an exhibitionist, a loner and crazy. Why did he not wait for parliament to handle the matter? Why not stick within the club? Did he not realise that the public disagreed with him over 42 days, as revealed in Westminster’s favourite franchise, the polls? Worst of all, Davis was currying favour with mere voters, as if he were consorting in the servants’ hall.”
re 277, ChrisD Excellent article. I will blog that tomorrow.
Oh and good night.
The sole issue I have with Davis, fundamentally, is the unnecessary showboating in a pointless by-election.
There was nothing to stop Davis setting-up DDforFreedom, or even the Tories as a whole doing so, a la [the admittedly foolish] Vote Blue, Go Green campaign, and uniting around this theme both within and without Parliament, with Davis spearheading it from his powerful position of Shadow Home Secretary.
Instead, an important issue is now largely dependent on the personal fate of one man, and the dynamic between him, Fleet Street and his party…
Any news on what this story is?
ECHO CHO ho o . Why has this story gone so quiet?
Is it just me here? Does the leaflet contain the world’s funniest joke, administering death within seconds to every one who hears it? Has it just been sent to those who have canvassed as Conservative?
Townlands Hospital Campaign: Conservative candidate did NOT help us
1.00.00pm BST (GMT +0100) Thu 19th Jun 2008
Claims by the Conservative campaign that their candidate assisted in the campaign to save Henley’s Townlands Hospital are in tatters having been refuted by independent Townlands Campaigners. BOTH the current and former Chairs of the Townlands Hospital Steering Group have issued statements denying any contribution into the campaign by John Howell, despite Conservative leaflets claiming otherwise.
In an interview in the Conservative election magazine “People” John Howell said:
“I’m a big supporter of our local NHS. I supported Boris Johnson and local people in the campaign to save Townlands Hospital in Henley”.
In another Q&A in the same magazine, answering the question “What’s your proudest achievement on the county council?” he said “The campaign and to protect our local environment from excessive house building has also been important, as has supporting Boris to save Townlands Hospital”.
In a Conservative “In Touch” campaign newspaper, John Howell is described as having “supported Boris Johnson’s campaign to save Townlands Hospital”.
Henley Residents Association Councillor and former Chair of Townlands Hospital Steering Group Barry Wood has demolished the Conservative claims saying:
“John Howell has never been heard of until this election started.
“The local Conservative Party has watched from the sidelines, whilst the Henley Residents Group has inspired the Town Council to fund the ‘Support Townlands campaign’ to the tune of £30,000.”
When Ian Reissmann, Chair of Townlands Hospital Steering group, was questioned on the Conservative Candidate’s help to the campaign to Save Townlands Hospital, he said:
“The Townlands Campaign has always been a community based campaign led by local people. The first time I was ever aware of John Howell was after he was first selected as a candidate in the by-election.
“No-one I have spoken to on the Townlands Steering Group is aware of any contribution he has made to the campaign to save Townlands Hospital.”
Stephen Kearney said:
“One of the things that makes Henley great is the work of voluntary organisations and community groups throughout the town.
“Ten thousand people signed the petition to save Townlands Hospital. I would like to thank every single one of them.
“As Henley’s local MP, I will always work with local residents to help keep Henley the special place it is.”
Just driven through Henley, no sign of rioting or Conservative posters being torn down and burnt in the street.
287 285 Many people who claim to support Manchester United have never been North of Watford..
Is THAT it !!!!!
Slighty overhyped, really.
Makes a good leaflet I guess, but hardly heralds a new epoch in political discourse.
289 yes - but the point is that people are talking about it - it has reached this site and it does make a powerful leaflet - pretty good tactics if you ask me -